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  1. #2660
    Quote Originally Posted by Rovereto  [View Original Post]
    Hi,

    There is a conceptual error here (that in statistics applied to social sciences is called 'selection'.

    To say that.

    "HIV rate among female German sex workers = 0.2% or 0.002 (20 in 10,000)."

    Is correct when applied to ALL sex workers (assuming that the measurement is correct and I'm giving this for granted). However, what matters here is not the probability computed over all sex workers but the probability computed only among the ones that do AO. And this number can be different, maybe much different, maybe not.
    There is no conceptual error in what I posted. However I can't be responsible for misapplication by the reader.

    My understanding is that the sampling technique used in the study was done so as to represent the population of all German sex workers. And in my examples I was very clear to say that the probability was relative to randomly selected sex workers in Germany.

    Even if one had a sample population of sex workers who offer AO, there is no guarantee that some other population doesn't have a higher rate of infection. For example, which group has more HIV carriers: sex workers who shoot drugs but use condoms, or sex workers who don't shoot drugs and don't use condoms? My guess, but it's only a guess, is that the drug shooting condom users are quite a bit more dangerous IF one has BBFS with them despite their usual practice.

    But the bottom line is this: we only have a base statistic for the entire population of sex workers, and so further subdividing into subgroups is speculation. However, the probability relative to that population is incredibly small, so small that it defies most peoples intuitive sense of probabilistic quantification.

    (Again in the realm of guess work, I bet if people saw the probability of being in a fatal car crash on the way to a FKK, they would no longer have to worry about HIV because they would be even more afraid to leave the house!)

  2. #2659
    Rovereto

    Money. Opportunity.

    And could be their vocation is to provide day care: so more than one girl explained to me

    Theoretical calculations here are irrelevant to the girls. They know exactly how often or not a girl at the club picks up the club: that is what guides them.

    Vito. And I thought it was the attraction of my personality

  3. #2658
    Quote Originally Posted by Rovereto  [View Original Post]
    Hi,

    There is a conceptual error here (that in statistics applied to social sciences is called 'selection'.

    To say that.

    "HIV rate among female German sex workers = 0.2% or 0.002 (20 in 10,000)."

    Is correct when applied to ALL sex workers (assuming that the measurement is correct and I'm giving this for granted). However, what matters here is not the probability computed over all sex workers but the probability computed only among the ones that do AO. And this number can be different, maybe much different, maybe not.

    The crime rate in a city can be very low but this does not mean that the city is safe or dangerous. If you go Sunday morning to the church, it's likely safe. But if you go late night and alone in a specific zone of the city, it can be dangerous. The overall crime rate is not really informative.

    Said this, I've been to Dietz only once and I liked it. I would like to know why do those girls work there. What do you think?
    You are very right: When you fuck one of the 100 girls at Sharks, with condom, you have 0 risk, but when you fuck one of the ugly Dietz girls who are fucked without condom more than 10 times a day, then not at all 0 risk, same in other AO clubs.

    I can't understand, when I see what happened to LR, AO clubs can still make business in Germany, when they are illegal about new law, since soon 1 year.

    I find much more enjoyable to get from pretty girls when they choose you, don't even need to beg, rather than for everybody, AO, risky girls.

    I prefer to die free riding, than from bad disease.

  4. #2657
    Quote Originally Posted by Rovereto  [View Original Post]
    Said this, I've been to Dietz only once and I liked it. I would like to know why do those girls work there. What do you think?
    From my experiences, these hot young babes get off on my hot cum dripping out their pussies when I pull out after an earth shattering creampie!

  5. #2656
    Quote Originally Posted by Neurosynth  [View Original Post]
    This is a recurring question, and I believe the following is the best estimate that's been posted in response. So I'll repeat it.

    Yes, I'm only addressing HIV here. It is by far the most common *fatal* STD that can't be cured, but only controlled. But the principles below can be used with other diseases too if you look up the base statistics.

    In that regard what seems to be often forgotten is that you have to multiply the probability of transmission with the probability of encountering an infected partner. That calculation significantly lowers the overall probability.

    HIV rate among female German sex workers = 0.2% or 0.002 (20 in 10,000).

    See page 14: https://ecdc.europa.eu/sites/portal/...ex-workers.pdf.

    HIV transmission rate for vaginal sex, female to male = 0.04% or 0.0004 (4 in 10,000).

    https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/risk/estimat...behaviors.html

    The probability of becoming infected via vaginal sex with a random sex worker in Germany.

    = 0.002 * 0.0004 = 0.0000008 = 0.00008% (8 in 1,000,000).

    To put that in perspective it's more likely you could flip a coin and get 20 heads in a row than contract HIV from a random sex worker in Germany.

    Put another way, if you had vaginal sex every day for 20 years with a different random sex worker in Germany your probability of HIV infection would be 0.00584.
    Hi,

    There is a conceptual error here (that in statistics applied to social sciences is called 'selection'.

    To say that.

    "HIV rate among female German sex workers = 0.2% or 0.002 (20 in 10,000)."

    Is correct when applied to ALL sex workers (assuming that the measurement is correct and I'm giving this for granted). However, what matters here is not the probability computed over all sex workers but the probability computed only among the ones that do AO. And this number can be different, maybe much different, maybe not.

    The crime rate in a city can be very low but this does not mean that the city is safe or dangerous. If you go Sunday morning to the church, it's likely safe. But if you go late night and alone in a specific zone of the city, it can be dangerous. The overall crime rate is not really informative.

    Said this, I've been to Dietz only once and I liked it. I would like to know why do those girls work there. What do you think?

  6. #2655
    Quote Originally Posted by TankTank123  [View Original Post]
    KK,

    Be forewarned!

    I think I saw a sign that stated that the S-Bahn tunnel will be closed from 24th June till 6th August so as to make it more difficult for you to visit daycare centre in your coming visit!
    Its just a bit of a hassle, take the tram to Muhlberg and S bahn from there.

  7. #2654
    Quote Originally Posted by TankTank123  [View Original Post]
    KK,

    Be forewarned!

    I think I saw a sign that stated that the S-Bahn tunnel will be closed from 24th June till 6th August so as to make it more difficult for you to visit daycare centre in your coming visit!
    11 days over two trips I must deal with this shit during this tunnel closure. I will train it there and earlier today I sent a message to the last cab driver I used in Dietzenbach who tells me he will take me home from the Gypsies for 30 Euros ' door to door' so 30 less the 5 for the train is a delta of only 25 Euros for a lift back in a Mercedes. Deal.

    For any others enrolled in Day Care in this time period here is a study guide to prepare you to get to Alice's.

    https://www.rmv.de/c/de/informatione...rien-gesperrt/

  8. #2653

    Long tunnel closure soon

    KK,

    Be forewarned!

    I think I saw a sign that stated that the S-Bahn tunnel will be closed from 24th June till 6th August so as to make it more difficult for you to visit daycare centre in your coming visit!

  9. #2652

    Business as usual in the Gypsy House

    Quote Originally Posted by KosherKowboy  [View Original Post]
    On my last trip to Paradise I spent basically 5 days with the adorable, appreciative and sweet kind hearted Gypsies. ... Nein Vashing.
    Meanwhile, if you've not already noticed, there's been some restoration on the home front. A good time perhaps to clear out old messages.

  10. #2651

    Business as usual in the Gypsy House

    On my last trip to Paradise I spent basically 5 days with the adorable, appreciative and sweet kind hearted Gypsies. They are nice to me, I am a stammgast there now. They are happy when I show up as they know I bring them gifts and that 600 e-700 e will get distributed to them over the course of several days. I am even getting to be friendly with a few of the locals who go there regularly, some I even see at the mainstream clubs now. Gypsies by day, Precious Princesses and Luci's by night.

    Not too much to report that is new at the Gypsy House. I missed Susi again but she says she will be there the end of the month, haven't fucked her in several month's now so looking forward to that. Sibel was also on holiday. Ramona is gone for the summer. Anna was her usual self, quite a busy bee and a fun one once she warms up to you as is the case with Elena. Elena sessions get better each time. I enjoyed the company of the entire Bulgarian Crew. Erika I always hang out with and of course Jessica. Desi is a very fun girl, she is growing on me fast. Nico is on probation and I haven't done her in a while since she went to a Nein Spritzing policy but I might do her next trip just because she sucks me off so well. Killed a little time getting to know Vanessa and she is a great girl for sure on the list to see next trip. Dana and Alizeh, still superstars, no one could go wrong with either of these two.

    Of all the new girls there I think only Diana and Desi are worth a spin. Wait times were never an issue, the flow of men in and out of the club was steady but not enough to fill the couches up. No one had any ques. As always, the Gypsies pleased, the visits are only getting better each time.

    I'll be back to see all my Queens in three weeks if anyone is going to be in the area I am always happy to sit and chat on a red couch.

    And finally, one of the Gypsies above took a 1-2 direct Swiss-American back to back hit. Nein Vashing.

  11. #2650
    Quote Originally Posted by BbfsOnly  [View Original Post]
    Tried that girl that does the amazing BJ, and yes, it was great.
    Likewise, fun conversations for sure. Want to trade home towns?

    Are we talking about the Gypsy I suggested you do who you sat next to or another girl I pointed out. Either way if it was the first one you sat next to she said you were a fine gentleman and enjoyed your company and thanked me for ' the reference. ' Unfortunately I do not think Gypsies offer up commissions, good luck to me on that one but they sure will accept any handout or gift. I am glad you enjoyed your afternoon at Day care.


  12. #2649

    It was nice meeting you Kosher!

    Quote Originally Posted by KosherKowboy  [View Original Post]
    The Sharks are hungry. 50 e offers not being rejected at all. I did two days this trip there and skipped Oase. I loved Sharks, when I mentioned to one of the girls if she would do BBBJ in the 50 room she looked at me like I was crazy. Well she is right, I am crazy, that is nothing new. But her answer was ' of course, we want the men to be happy' . Perhaps they have been instructed to suck cock bare, regardless it is BBBJ City all the way. I did 3 rooms for 50 each the first time there, no upselling, nada. As to the Asians I do not think they are paying anymore than others nor were the girls hustling them like I normally saw on past trips (unlike Mainhatten tonight) Each time I paid an Asian was also paying a girl, a 50 note like myself. In fact one girl I did (Amira) fucked an Asian right after I and he paid her 50 as his paybox was right next to mine and I was grabbing my smokes as he was paying. Same as I paid. But the best thing about Sharks was I was finally able to see my Queen Luci / Hanna for the first time since November or so. She got her usual 100 for the hour. I was able to cum in a condom too finally! I was so happy. I felt half my age when I walked out I was so thrilled. The last time I came in a condom successfully was last November, with Luci. I now have 3 weeks no Luci. I have now fucked her 4 times and blew in the rubber 3 of those times. I will miss her..
    Tried that girl that does the amazing BJ, and yes, it was great.

  13. #2648
    Quote Originally Posted by KosherKowboy  [View Original Post]
    The Sharks are hungry. 50 e offers not being rejected at all. I did two days this trip there and skipped Oase. I loved Sharks, when I mentioned to one of the girls if she would do BBBJ in the 50 room she looked at me like I was crazy. Well she is right, I am crazy, that is nothing new. But her answer was ' of course, we want the men to be happy' . Perhaps they have been instructed to suck cock bare, regardless it is BBBJ City all the way. I did 3 rooms for 50 each the first time there, no upselling, nada. As to the Asians I do not think they are paying anymore than others nor were the girls hustling them like I normally saw on past trips (unlike Mainhatten tonight) Each time I paid an Asian was also paying a girl, a 50 note like myself. In fact one girl I did (Amira) fucked an Asian right after I and he paid her 50 as his paybox was right next to mine and I was grabbing my smokes as he was paying. Same as I paid. But the best thing about Sharks was I was finally able to see my Queen Luci / Hanna for the first time since November or so. She got her usual 100 for the hour. I was able to cum in a condom too finally! I was so happy. I felt half my age when I walked out I was so thrilled. The last time I came in a condom successfully was last November, with Luci. I now have 3 weeks no Luci. I have now fucked her 4 times and blew in the rubber 3 of those times. I will miss her..
    Probably they were recording the phones, they have done it in the past at Shark, very interesting to listen what the girls are telling to their pimps.

  14. #2647

    Police stopped by, did not enter.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lanthano  [View Original Post]
    Sharks as well, but to a much lesser extent for now. .
    The Sharks are hungry. 50 e offers not being rejected at all. I did two days this trip there and skipped Oase. I loved Sharks, when I mentioned to one of the girls if she would do BBBJ in the 50 room she looked at me like I was crazy. Well she is right, I am crazy, that is nothing new. But her answer was ' of course, we want the men to be happy' . Perhaps they have been instructed to suck cock bare, regardless it is BBBJ City all the way. I did 3 rooms for 50 each the first time there, no upselling, nada. As to the Asians I do not think they are paying anymore than others nor were the girls hustling them like I normally saw on past trips (unlike Mainhatten tonight) Each time I paid an Asian was also paying a girl, a 50 note like myself. In fact one girl I did (Amira) fucked an Asian right after I and he paid her 50 as his paybox was right next to mine and I was grabbing my smokes as he was paying. Same as I paid. But the best thing about Sharks was I was finally able to see my Queen Luci / Hanna for the first time since November or so. She got her usual 100 for the hour. I was able to cum in a condom too finally! I was so happy. I felt half my age when I walked out I was so thrilled. The last time I came in a condom successfully was last November, with Luci. I now have 3 weeks no Luci. I have now fucked her 4 times and blew in the rubber 3 of those times. I will miss her.

    Dietzenbach business as usual. The police showed up yesterday but did not come in, maybe it was the day before. It was either late morning or just after lunch and all of a sudden two Gyspies ran at lighting speed and locked the back door. No one fucked downstairs only upstairs. Two girls stood in the mens room on the toilets looking out those windows so the cops were parked in front of that industrial complex. Alice closed the front door as well so it was hot as fuck in there for 30 or 45 minutes. Not sure what they were doing there but they did not come in at all nor did they approach the gate and talk to Alice. I did a session while the police were outside. The Gypsy I was with was a little nervous so she took out a condom and unwrapped it and held in her hand while she blew me. She also fucked me in reverse cowgirl facing the door and had me hold the condom (unrolled) I am guessing so if they did open the door they couldn't actually see cock in pussy and with the unwrapped condom ' whoops, it slipped off'.

    Maybe they were just stopped there to make a point sort of a ' friendly reminder. ' Nothing came of it. But I came. In her pussy.

    I love Dietzenbach. I love the Gypsies (and Luci too).

  15. #2646
    Quote Originally Posted by Lanthano  [View Original Post]
    Interesting post. It backs up what I've seen: Oase is full of Asian hunters, overpaying guests and upselling (heard more shit about it last night). Sharks as well, but to a much lesser extent for now. It's ironic because on balance, Oase is much harder to get to and they can't afford this. I think they think they can due to the name, and the overproportional regulars from Italy that go there nomatter what.

    Furthermore, yes, the Japanese are actually the most similar to us in terms of mongering. I noticed this in the Phillipines and Thailand. They've been coming for quite a while, hate the way the newly rich other Asians (Koreans and Chinese) ruin the market.

    In terms of your approach to the upselling, I'm with you. Just say no.
    Just one small difference most of them are very shy with a small dick and paying a lot for nothing, just a little difference.

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