Medellin Chit Chat Thread

[Combo]

Well, it seems there is also a bit more rational explanation for the temporary strength of the COP.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...eso-2018-06-06

Of course, if you want to persist in blaming presidents for low exchange rates, we must note that during Obama's two terms, the dollar spent at least half of those 8 years under 2000 COP. Personally, I'm inclined to look at the big picture as to what influences exchange rates, instead of only what goes on in the White House.

In other news, the USD broke about 2900 COP a week ago, and has stayed there. The COP lost momentum against the USD on April 18, a week after the Fed released the "minutes" from their prior meeting in March. The Thai Baht also turned around on April 18, while the Brazilian Real hastened its decline on that same date. Its typically a bad thing for a developing nation's currency when the FOMC embarks on a path to raising interest rates. But, is can be a blessing for those of us who prefer to monger in the developing world.

Thank you! Anyone complaining about the current exchange rate has lost perspective. 2946 close today is a fantastic rate. Heck, if it stays above 2500 to the USD, that is still a damn good rate. I've been going to Colombia for over a decade and a lot of that time the rate has been under 2000.

Also trying to blame / credit the current politicians for a good or bad exchange rate is ridiculous (though the-Bags on both sides do it). I've traded FX for a living for most of my life. So many things go into an exchange rate that are completely outside a president's influence.

[Eszpresszo]

It is the dollar getting weaker. Dollar down 18% against the euro since Trump was elected and began running his mouth. Oil prices up nearly 30%. Look at the COP vs. The euro. Gone virtually nowhere.

Well, it seems there is also a bit more rational explanation for the temporary strength of the COP.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...eso-2018-06-06

Of course, if you want to persist in blaming presidents for low exchange rates, we must note that during Obama's two terms, the dollar spent at least half of those 8 years under 2000 COP. Personally, I'm inclined to look at the big picture as to what influences exchange rates, instead of only what goes on in the White House.

In other news, the USD broke about 2900 COP a week ago, and has stayed there. The COP lost momentum against the USD on April 18, a week after the Fed released the "minutes" from their prior meeting in March. The Thai Baht also turned around on April 18, while the Brazilian Real hastened its decline on that same date. Its typically a bad thing for a developing nation's currency when the FOMC embarks on a path to raising interest rates. But, is can be a blessing for those of us who prefer to monger in the developing world.

[JjBee62]

Heading this weekend there. Saturday 6 pm is Ley seca because of the elections. Will establishments be open Saturday night? Will establishments be open on Sunday?

No. They will all close at 6 pm Saturday and will not reopen until Monday.

[Caribb777]

Heading this weekend there. Saturday 6 pm is Ley seca because of the elections. Will establishments be open Saturday night? Will establishments be open on Sunday?

[Eszpresszo]

My last time to read any of your posts, my last time to reply to you and my last attempt to educate you.

Two years constitutes multi year and so does three years. To argue different makes you look stubborn or foolish.

LOL. Thanks for educating me. Have fun with your currency speculation. I expect you will get rich on it, soon enough.

[Dccpa]

My last time to read any of your posts, my last time to reply to you and my last attempt to educate you.

1 The all time high was in 2008, but the Euro has made several tops since then. If you are using a definition of top that is different than everyone else I know, it's a free world.

2 Two years constitutes multi year and so does three years. To argue different makes you look stubborn or foolish.

3 The Euro is a flawed currency that was doomed from the start. In the last few months, the Euro finally made a back test to the neckline of the H&S pattern that started in 2004. The USD will be over par vs. The Euro within the year. Personally, I consider that kind of move to be more than merely strengthening. But again, you may have a different definition than most people.

Look at your chart again, dude. The Euro topped in 2008. Three years doesn't constitute "multi-year". The USD has merely strengthened against most currencies in general since the financial crisis, not just the Euro.

[Wild Walleye]

Things might get even better for those who hold the USD. Unemployment fell below 4% in the US, triggering speculation that the FOMC would hike interest rates four times, whereas there's the consensus that it would happen twice at the beginning of this week.

In other news, drastic action was also taken by Argentina's Central bank in the past week. They hiked interest rates three times! And that still hasn't had much impact on its weakening currency.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapo...ility-damaged/#57592 ef410 d5.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/argenti...ays-1525445140

Argentina's peso has been sliding in the past few years, which means that maybe Argentina needs extra scrutiny as a mongering destination. Certainly it has it fans here on ISG.

As for ex-wife's abroad, I can certainly relate. Though in hindsight they might be cheaper when you just pay them to leave.

The biggest driver of Forex pricing is the relative interest rates of the two locales. Of course country risk and all that other stuff figures in as well. However, central bank rate hikes and cuts are a big driver. The USD has had a couple recent rate hikes. That means USD deposits will make a little more.

As for four hikes this coming year, in part as a response to lower unemployment, I actually think that the reverse is true. The tightening labor market will eventually yield significant wage increases which are, in and of themselves, inflationary. Rapidly increasing the cost of capital at the same time as the market is experiencing material increases in labor costs isn't good policy, if the objective is to keep the recovery going. Also, consider the recent rise in fuel prices.

On the subject of Argentina, I was thinking the exact same thing when I saw the news. The currency has dropped quite a bit (ARS: USD 15:1 to 22:1), since the currency controls came off in 2016. When I first started spending a lot of time in Argentina (2007) the rate was 3. 10 ARS:1 USD. However, it isn't like things are 7 x cheaper, now (constant inflation doesn't help). The women are awesome and there are lots of good expats and forum members in Buenos Aires. Things are starting to get a little cheaper and if the articles I read were on target, things could continue to get cheaper.

[Balboa]

I noticed while the Colombian Peso has strengthened the Brazilian Real is at 3. 5 to a US dollar. That's getting close to the 1 US dollar is 4 reals which is a sweet deal if you're in Sao Paolo.

Hmmm or in Rio!

There now 😎

[YippieKayay]

I noticed while the Colombian Peso has strengthened the Brazilian Real is at 3. 5 to a US dollar. That's getting close to the 1 US dollar is 4 reals which is a sweet deal if you're in Sao Paolo.

[Eszpresszo]

Multi year top as in the highest EUR: USD rate since 2014 and will be the highest rate for a few more years. If you look at the chart below, the EUR: USD has been trending in favor of the USD since the 2008 crisis.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6E&p=m1

Look at your chart again, dude. The Euro topped in 2008. Three years doesn't constitute "multi-year". The USD has merely strengthened against most currencies in general since the financial crisis, not just the Euro.

[Dccpa]

Multi year top as in the highest EUR: USD rate since 2014 and will be the highest rate for a few more years. If you look at the chart below, the EUR: USD has been trending in favor of the USD since the 2008 crisis.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6E&p=m1

Multi-year top? Maybe in the past 3 years, when it was coming off a 10-year low. But it hit 1.60 USD 10 years this July. The dollar has definitely been much weaker against the Euro in the past decade.

Here is a professional source for exchange rates, past and current:

https://www.xe.com/

They also have an app on Google Play. What monthly chart are you referring to? Is this a tech analysis tool?

The Euro was down to $1.05 USD back in the fall of 2015, just over two years ago. By dumb luck, I happened to visit a friend in Berlin at that time. My only regret was not mongering more. The USD has done well in the past weeks, but the Pound Sterling has done the opposite. So, news of a strong dollar does not mean happy news for everyone on these forums. If the USD reclaims 3000 COP by this fall, I will be thrilled.

And as a point of reference, the USD was down to just over 1800, five years ago. After the COP took a dive in in Mid-2014, the USD hit a 10-year high of 3370 in February of 2016 and had fallen to barely above 3000 when I visited just two months later. From a historical perspective anything approaching 3000 to the US dollar is an awesome deal (if you have US dollars, that is). Today's closing price of 1,20 EU to the USD is less than attractive. And 13900 Rupiah to the Buck means a great time to visit Indonesia.

[Eszpresszo]

In Europe in the summer when the Euro hit about 1. 67 to the dollar. Even the cost of a Coke was outrageous! And I also spent a lot of time in Colombia when the COP was in the 1700's. True deals could be found on local products, but not much else. I also enjoyed the 330 rate as well. I would be very happy to see the COP go back to 3000 to the dollar, but even at 2800 or 2900 I am very happy compared to what the rate was when I first married my ex-wife, who was from Bogota.

Things might get even better for those who hold the USD. Unemployment fell below 4% in the US, triggering speculation that the FOMC would hike interest rates four times, whereas there's the consensus that it would happen twice at the beginning of this week.

In other news, drastic action was also taken by Argentina's Central bank in the past week. They hiked interest rates three times! And that still hasn't had much impact on its weakening currency.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapo...ility-damaged/#57592 ef410 d5.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/argenti...ays-1525445140

Argentina's peso has been sliding in the past few years, which means that maybe Argentina needs extra scrutiny as a mongering destination. Certainly it has it fans here on ISG.

As for ex-wife's abroad, I can certainly relate. Though in hindsight they might be cheaper when you just pay them to leave.

[ColombiaLover]

In Europe in the summer when the Euro hit about 1. 67 to the dollar. Even the cost of a Coke was outrageous! And I also spent a lot of time in Colombia when the COP was in the 1700's. True deals could be found on local products, but not much else. I also enjoyed the 330 rate as well. I would be very happy to see the COP go back to 3000 to the dollar, but even at 2800 or 2900 I am very happy compared to what the rate was when I first married my ex-wife, who was from Bogota.

Multi-year top? Maybe in the past 3 years, when it was coming off a 10-year low. But it hit 1.60 USD 10 years this July. The dollar has definitely been much weaker against the Euro in the past decade.

Here is a professional source for exchange rates, past and current:

https://www.xe.com/

They also have an app on Google Play. What monthly chart are you referring to? Is this a tech analysis tool?

The Euro was down to $1.05 USD back in the fall of 2015, just over two years ago. By dumb luck, I happened to visit a friend in Berlin at that time. My only regret was not mongering more. The USD has done well in the past weeks, but the Pound Sterling has done the opposite. So, news of a strong dollar does not mean happy news for everyone on these forums. If the USD reclaims 3000 COP by this fall, I will be thrilled.

And as a point of reference, the USD was down to just over 1800, five years ago. After the COP took a dive in in Mid-2014, the USD hit a 10-year high of 3370 in February of 2016 and had fallen to barely above 3000 when I visited just two months later. From a historical perspective anything approaching 3000 to the US dollar is an awesome deal (if you have US dollars, that is). Today's closing price of 1,20 EU to the USD is less than attractive. And 13900 Rupiah to the Buck means a great time to visit Indonesia.

[Eszpresszo]

The Euro: USD reached my long awaited multi year top of 125-126 (actual was 125.5) back in February. I am looking for a 25-30% drop in the Euro over the next 12-15 months. No idea what will cause the drop, but the monthly chart has been very reliable since the 2008 financial crisis.

Multi-year top? Maybe in the past 3 years, when it was coming off a 10-year low. But it hit 1.60 USD 10 years this July. The dollar has definitely been much weaker against the Euro in the past decade.

Here is a professional source for exchange rates, past and current:

https://www.xe.com/

They also have an app on Google Play. What monthly chart are you referring to? Is this a tech analysis tool?

The Euro was down to $1.05 USD back in the fall of 2015, just over two years ago. By dumb luck, I happened to visit a friend in Berlin at that time. My only regret was not mongering more. The USD has done well in the past weeks, but the Pound Sterling has done the opposite. So, news of a strong dollar does not mean happy news for everyone on these forums. If the USD reclaims 3000 COP by this fall, I will be thrilled.

And as a point of reference, the USD was down to just over 1800, five years ago. After the COP took a dive in in Mid-2014, the USD hit a 10-year high of 3370 in February of 2016 and had fallen to barely above 3000 when I visited just two months later. From a historical perspective anything approaching 3000 to the US dollar is an awesome deal (if you have US dollars, that is). Today's closing price of 1,20 EU to the USD is less than attractive. And 13900 Rupiah to the Buck means a great time to visit Indonesia.

[Dccpa]

The Euro: USD reached my long awaited multi year top of 125-126 (actual was 125.5) back in February. I am looking for a 25-30% drop in the Euro over the next 12-15 months. No idea what will cause the drop, but the monthly chart has been very reliable since the 2008 financial crisis.

Okay by that logic, George W. Bush is responsible for cheap FKK adventures, when the Euro fell to 85 cents in May of 2001. And don't forget, gas is still cheaper now than it was 5 years ago, when everyone was paying well over $3 a gallon. I saw gas for 1.49 right around the time Barack Obama was elected. Are you ready to blame Barack Obama for high gas prices?

And BTW, the Euro began the year at 3578, and fell to 3336 a few weeks ago. Is that what you call virtually nowhere?

While the COP has strengthened against most other currencies in recent months, we have seen the Indonesian Rupiah fall to a three year low against the dollar and approaching a 10 year low. So, shouldn't I thank Donald Trump for the cheap pussy I enjoyed in Bali last month?

My point is, you cannot selectively blame politicians for economic events. They have less influence over economic matters than people think they do, and less than they would like you to believe. The big player in the strength of the dollar over the long term, in my opinion, is going to be the new "Fed". A central bank that is "hawkish" is going to strengthen the currency, just as central bank that can't keep inflation in check is going to see its currency slump. What money manager is going to put their funds in a currency whose value is eroding due to inflation. A currency gets attractive when the spread between inflation and the yield on deposits or bonds is positive. Right now, not many money managers or investors want to stick their money in bonds if they don't have do. With three interest rate increases in the cards, the "smart money" would prefer to wait until bond and money market yields are higher. Its just the same as you would want to take out a mortgage and buy a home now, instead of a year or two. Because it will likely be more expensive to finance a home purchase then. Making investments in fixed income will be a better value in that same time period. Note that around 45% of all US Treasury debt was held by overseas entities of last fall. The Japanese government holds almost 8% of all US Debt. Almost 20% of all buyers at US Treasury auctions are foreign, down from almost 30% ten years ago. So, you can see the impact this will have on a currency. If other big central banks don't follow suit, soon (and they don't appear to be), you will likely see a trend towards a stronger dollar, regardless of who is in the oval office and what noise they tweet. Because that is all it is, noise. What the Fed does, actually matters immensely, and what they merely imply in the published Fed "Minutes" or what the Fed Chairman mumbles can move mountains in the world of finance.