Thread: Kyiv
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04-19-20 23:28 #20497
Posts: 823Originally Posted by Gargano19 [View Original Post]
Kiev ladies operated during TB, syphilis, HIV, SARS, Zika, multiple invasions during revolution and world war 2, and more. There will be overpriced girls on one end, and an equivalent of truck stop lizards on the other.
There's game in the city right now. Girls are extremely polite. I expect higher intensity of viral risks and adventuresome undertakers taking more chances in May.
Curious to see how the city will adjust going forward. I have a hunch we shall remember 2019 the way we discussed River Palace for the last 5-7 years following the emergence of Viber, WhatsApp and Instagram.
Number of mongers and female contacts already went through Corona symptoms.
Stay safe, gentlemen!
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04-19-20 23:16 #20496
Posts: 823Originally Posted by YummyPL [View Original Post]
What follows is a brain dump. TLTR.
The definition is simple. Death rate is the ratio of dead to the total population. For example in US it means 340 M * 0. 0037 = 1.258 M will be dead after pandemic is over. It will be much higher if the infrastructure gets overloaded, because Trump fired CDC director appointed by Obama, introduced his own useless idiot in charge, and reduced budget for pandemic events, assuming we are not a third world country susceptible to Ebola and shit, or simply because people do not follow stay at home policy, and infection multiplier (average number of persons each confirmed case further infects) is greater than 1.
0. 37% seems very particular indeed. Why not 1%, or half of a percent, or one tenth of a percent? Different regions and methods of calculation provide the range anywhere from zero to 13%.
0. 37% final death rate correlates with observations in different countries. At least order of the value is correct.
One of the examples is the island country called Diamond Princess cruise ship. Perfect container for mathematical modeling. It had a total of 3711 passengers plus crew. Currently 712 are confirmed, number of new daily cases is zero after peaking at 100. Number of dead is 13.
13 divided by 3711 is 0.35% dead of total population.
13 divided by 712 is 1.8% dead of total confirmed.
712 divided by 3711 is 19% confirmed of total population.
3618 or 97.5% of total population were tested.
As we can see not even half was infected due to quarantine in place.
There were similar calculations done in some locations in California, as well as for total populations of certain countries.
USA current death rate has reached 0.012%.
Slightly over 1% of total population is tested far from being wide enough.
0. 2% of total population are confirmed infected.
New York City (not the State of New York) is already at much higher 0.17% close to half of expected final. NYC will surely exceed that forecast as easier cases become more heavier without proper treatment or simply no access at all. BTW it is believed NYC received it mostly from Europe.
There are also estimates of percentages of dead out of confirmed. 1. 5% if treated, and 5% if no treatment is available. Confirmed in US may go as high as 15-20 M before we start seeing a meaningful reduction in the new daily cases. We are 5 times double away from that. We are doubling every 8-12 days at the moment. It'll go into June for sure, unless it gets worse due to lifting off restrictions.
Too early to say about Ukraine, as it is 2-3 weeks behind.
I shouldn't have spoken about plateau and steady state in my prior post. Underlying differential equation generates exponential growth or fade away. Therefore peak is reached, substrate is exhausted, and when multiplier becomes less than one, fade away asymptote is initiated going towards zero. People get overconfident and new wave of infections starts. That is what we observe in new daily cases for USA. Peak has been reached on April 4. Went down then second wave up on April 9. Currently we see third wave up.
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04-19-20 15:25 #20495
Posts: 499Originally Posted by PhotoSlider [View Original Post]
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04-19-20 10:57 #20494
Posts: 22484Originally Posted by Gargano19 [View Original Post]
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04-19-20 09:30 #20493
Posts: 624Originally Posted by PhotoSlider [View Original Post]
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04-19-20 07:51 #20492
Posts: 823Originally Posted by Kozerog [View Original Post]
I do have informative curves from John Hopkins for Japan and South Korea, and they are substantially different from each other.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
I look at histograms in the bottom right corner and switch from Confirmed to Daily Cases.
South Korea peaked beginning of March at 800 new daily cases, and steadily went down, counting about 20-30 cases now. 10 K confirmed cases, 200 dead. South Korea is essentially an island with rather dense population of 52 M.
Japan is also an island, with population of 125 M. It also has about 10 K confirmed cases and 200 deaths. Except Japan daily new cases are increasing from mid-March and currently are over 1000 new cases per day.
Neither Ukraine nor Belarus are islands. More travel, less isolated.
Both Ukraine and Belarus have similar curves, both are speeding up, both have about 5 K confirmed cases. Ukraine is currently at 500 new daily cases, and accelerating at about 10-12% per day, which is bad enough. 133 dead.
10% daily means doubling in 6-7 days. 10 times more in about 3 weeks. So, the Ukrainian curve is relatively flat, but not flat enough. 5 K confirmed today means 500 K in 6 weeks. End of May. Studies show actual infected rate is 5-10 times higher with many having less symptoms. 2-5 millions out of 30-40 millions means no herd immunity yet (like Sweden and UK want), but established death rate from COVID is 0. 37%. Meaning 20 K dead and increasing. 2019 death rate in Ukraine was 12-15 per 1000 annually. Rather high. That translates to about 30-40 K a month. Therefore 3 weeks before half of the population gets infected death rate will increase by 50%. By that time in Kiev one may start seeing what they experience in New York, Spain and Italy. Medical staff unable to treat adequately due to overload.
Belarus is the same - 5 K confirmed, 45 dead (less) about 500-600 new daily cases. But Belarus population is 4-5 times smaller than Ukraine. I trust stats from Belarus much less than Ukraine. Regardless, my impression Belarus is in a worse situation.
Ukraine started 2-3 weeks behind US / Europe. The bad news is that out of 5 K infected, one thousand is medical workers. The infrastructure is not overwhelmed yet, but will be within weeks.
While I agree that no country can withstand prolonged shutdown, I see that Ukraine is not that badly hit yet.
It seems that Italy started seeing fewer new daily confirmed cases, - down from 6 K+ to 3-4 K.
Spain had a similar pattern. Unfortunately the second wave was observed, not as high as the first.
US has reached plateau of about 25-35 K new daily cases for 2 weeks now. This could mean saturation in testing, overloaded infrastructure, or stable system in terms of spread. Every 30 K daily new today pass the virus to 30 K more tomorrow. Perhaps that number is dictated by the size of the population.
Ukraine did not reach that steady state saturation plateau yet.
What does it mean for Ukraine? Increased crime. Theft, burglaries, assaults, break-ins. There are reports coming from personal sources in Kiev already.
There are continued attempts to destabilize the country. At first it was stupid people causing fires in Chernobyl forests. Now there are reports of intentional arson in Zhytomyr area.
My interpretation of the facts seems to show that Ukraine is few weeks away from steady state (no acceleration in new daily cases). Then it will stay at the peak, then will slowly go down. Government will be forced to open up. Phased approach or much faster it may lead to the second wave. Just like with the Spanish flu 100 years ago.
There is currently no hard evidence that acquired immunity is long-lasting. Vaccine is 12-18 months away, if possible at all. HIV, Hep see and Denge are also RNA viruses and do not have vaccine created. COVID-19 is the third wave of corona virus in the last 20 or so years. SARS and MERS already went and gone, but this one is substantially worse in the strategy that virus is using. Anyway, I am expecting it returning after slowdown. If not this fall then perhaps in a few years.
I do not believe civilization will get wiped out. I do think that August-September is more realistic for opening up Ukrainian borders a little.
I like how New Zealand and Australia manage, but for practical purposes both are islands.
How different of the world is it going to be? I would expect less of GFE, more individualistic isolated society. Relying on long-term regulars from both sides. Girls and mongers. Of course there are those that don't care. I am not one of them. Wasn't before, and not changing after.
Definitely bring your own condoms as supply routes will be disrupted, and Kozerog is right. There might be shortage or lower quality.
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04-18-20 19:23 #20491
Posts: 499Originally Posted by Kozerog [View Original Post]
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04-18-20 18:10 #20490
Posts: 242Originally Posted by AZNMonger [View Original Post]
Evidence that lockdown is itself causing an increase in deaths is just arriving, since the lockdowns are so recent, and too complicated to argue about this evidence here, plus you don't seem too interested in truth. (I'm an investor, and truth matters a lot to me, since it affects my investment decisions. Note that I'm well positioned to profit from total destruction of the economy by continuing the lockdowns, so not arguing my own book.) Effect is small but growing in Europe. In places like the Philippines, South Africa, India, the effect is potentially catastrophic. Possibly intentionally so: an attempt to exterminate the lower classes in those countries by starvation.
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04-18-20 15:43 #20489
Posts: 79Originally Posted by Kozerog [View Original Post]
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04-18-20 14:43 #20488
Posts: 558Originally Posted by YummyPL [View Original Post]
I was ready to board on April 15, but as we f***ed like there was no tomorrow on April 14, it was too late to board when I rose out of hangover on 15.
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04-18-20 04:52 #20487
Posts: 624Originally Posted by Kozerog [View Original Post]
Yes 2 week quarantine seems like till late this year, which would be a huge no no for most mongers.
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04-17-20 23:37 #20486
Posts: 499Originally Posted by Kozerog [View Original Post]
I am an American but I am very irritated I missed getting to Kiev by three days before it shut down. I have been trying to ensure I get there as soon as the ban is lifted and my work colleagues are doing everything they can to get back home taking advantage of the two flghts that have returned to the USA since the lock down. I don; t understand them.
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04-17-20 21:13 #20485
Posts: 242Originally Posted by Gargano19 [View Original Post]
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04-17-20 19:04 #20484
Posts: 624Originally Posted by Kozerog [View Original Post]
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04-17-20 19:01 #20483
Posts: 242Originally Posted by Sorbonne [View Original Post]