General Reports

[Beijing4987]

Oil prices crashed today folks. It's being called a Double Black Swan. Has everyone on ISG contacted their epidemiologist relatives to comment?

[Dena0]

That's the best expert advice according to who? To the people who don't give a shit about the world economy and are willing to have lock down for years? If you live in a dream fantasy world, then that is a possibility. But here in the real world, all that will do is cause the 2nd great depression while the corona cases are stretched out ad infinitum. They will not go to zero even with the lock down. People will die of starvation (especially in third world countries), suicide or drug abuse from depression, etc if they can't earn money.

Sweden most likely did it the right way. Get it over and done with as quickly as possible rather than kill the economy and let it go on for years. We will see in the long run.

Best advice according to epidemiologists in confronting a pandemic. However, the horse has already left the Wuhan barn and a global lockdown is unrealistic, which is why the pragmatic approach worldwide is likely to be graduated slackening of the lockdown with controls on localised hotspots.

There is no altering the fact that a depression is already all too likely and the unfortunate term 'culling of the herd' is already well in progress, whether we like it or not. Too many variables at play now. Oil at a negative price, CO2 unavailability leading to likely interruption of clean water and significant parts of the food chain. Who'd have thunk it?

[Goatscrot]

Well said. This is grim, but realistic. It's highly likely this will be the end of the Farang P4 P scene in Thailand as we know it. The scene has been in decline for a long time, and it's easier to kill off now than ever. Had the pandemic happened in the 1990's when sex tourists mattered to the economy, perhaps it could rebound, but those times are over. As an aside, a few old Asia hands I talked to mentioned how P4 P for foreigners in South Korea was excellent prior to the 1988 Olympics, the event that authorities used to clean it up. A fairly large scene still remains, but only for locals.

Across Thailand, the puritans are already using the chance to ban alcohol, although the link to the risk of spreading the virus is tenuous, far more indirect than with prostitution.

Cultural attitudes towards P4 P around the world have turned sharply negative due to the HIV epidemic in the 80's and 90's, and I suspect they'll go even more negative in the aftermath of Covid-19, even once a vaccine is available. Local scenes that are already halfway underground like Jakarta, KL or HK might survive, albeit in a diminished state. Foreigners in general won't be too popular for a while either in many places, so more girls in those local scenes might refuse foreign customers (some already do).

No idea about Angeles, I've been hearing it's in decline too, but perhaps PI is sufficiently corrupt to allow it to remain, and it might attract enough sex tourists exiled from other places to keep it viable.

I see no positives for our hobby except maybe a short term increase in freelancers due to desperate economic conditions, but this will be short lived and the number of foreign mongers able to tap into it will be limited.

Online mongering scene might expand to some extent, but I personally hate it. Online P4 P basically involves begging, digging and waiting for pussy rather than enjoying the process of choosing among many girls eager to be with me within 20 min of meeting.

We are in line with both our assessment of the situation and our feelings about the online scene.

It's really a shame, I was hoping my 50's and 60's would be filled with great mongering opportunities. It was one of the reasons I chose to move her. Guess not. Glad I came over here 20 years ago to catch the end of the golden age. Everything prior to this March seems like nostalgia now.

I too have heard about how great Korea was prior to the olympics. One guy who lived there at the time said the bar scene was better than BKK ever was, and it was all gone in an instant. Closed Dec 31st 1987. Here no need for heavy handedness, that is not the Thai way; simply don't allow the places to open for a while longer and make regulations that will be difficult to comply with. And there you have it. Sigh, it really is depressing.

[BodyAnybody]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/sout...-show-why.html

Poor countries like Mexico, PI and Brazil are in denial. Not even reporting infections or death rates accurately. They don't care primarily because they have no money to treat any sick person anyway. One of the reasons the US has totally shut down border with Mexico. Only commercial traffic coming through.

The Border with Mexico isn't shut down. I was just in Mexico over the weekend to see my regular girl. No questions asked on the way in to Mexico as usual, but I did get additional screening on my way back into the US. I think this is just because the agents on staff were assholes though.

[Crocodilexp]

Yep, it isn't going to be pretty for mongers in LOS. I would also imagine that the gov along with many Thais would love to get rid of the what they consider eyesores, and that is the GoGos and the farang P4 P scene. Especially in the capital city. GoGo bars are an easy target as are the oily massage parlors. Soapies have been dead in the water for years as Thai businessmen no longer frequent them. The gov will use this as a way to finally rid BKK of the sexpat and sex tourist. Regulations will be put in place that make it impossible for many of these places to re-open, even if they can withstand the lockdown financially. The scene will migrate online even more and as you stated the gals that can attract local men will have nothing to do with foreigners. The future for foreign P4 P in Thailand, Bangkok especially, is pretty bleak. Anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves. As far as P4 P goes, I would imagine Angeles City and Jakarta will see few changes coming out of this. HK will be the same as well.

Well said. This is grim, but realistic. It's highly likely this will be the end of the Farang P4 P scene in Thailand as we know it. The scene has been in decline for a long time, and it's easier to kill off now than ever. Had the pandemic happened in the 1990's when sex tourists mattered to the economy, perhaps it could rebound, but those times are over. As an aside, a few old Asia hands I talked to mentioned how P4 P for foreigners in South Korea was excellent prior to the 1988 Olympics, the event that authorities used to clean it up. A fairly large scene still remains, but only for locals.

Across Thailand, the puritans are already using the chance to ban alcohol, although the link to the risk of spreading the virus is tenuous, far more indirect than with prostitution.

Cultural attitudes towards P4 P around the world have turned sharply negative due to the HIV epidemic in the 80's and 90's, and I suspect they'll go even more negative in the aftermath of Covid-19, even once a vaccine is available. Local scenes that are already halfway underground like Jakarta, KL or HK might survive, albeit in a diminished state. Foreigners in general won't be too popular for a while either in many places, so more girls in those local scenes might refuse foreign customers (some already do).

No idea about Angeles, I've been hearing it's in decline too, but perhaps PI is sufficiently corrupt to allow it to remain, and it might attract enough sex tourists exiled from other places to keep it viable.

I see no positives for our hobby except maybe a short term increase in freelancers due to desperate economic conditions, but this will be short lived and the number of foreign mongers able to tap into it will be limited.

Online mongering scene might expand to some extent, but I personally hate it. Online P4 P basically involves begging, digging and waiting for pussy rather than enjoying the process of choosing among many girls eager to be with me within 20 min of meeting.

[Smoothy]

As somebody else pointed out in this forum, Sweden is no success story. Until now, the best expert advice seems to be that in the face of the power of exponential contact, the name of the game is social isolation to a point where we reach fourteen consecutive days with zero new cases anywhere in the world.

That's the best expert advice according to who? To the people who don't give a shit about the world economy and are willing to have lock down for years? If you live in a dream fantasy world, then that is a possibility. But here in the real world, all that will do is cause the 2nd great depression while the corona cases are stretched out ad infinitum. They will not go to zero even with the lock down. People will die of starvation (especially in third world countries), suicide or drug abuse from depression, etc if they can't earn money.

Sweden most likely did it the right way. Get it over and done with as quickly as possible rather than kill the economy and let it go on for years. We will see in the long run.

[Dena0]

Right, there is no way things can remain in shut down much longer. We are in the process of killing our economies and thus killing our way of life. At some point soon all the world's various governments will have to open up their respective economies or face civil unrest. The good news is Corona is NOT nearly as lethal as something like the Spanish Flu and the hope is that the world's mitigation strategy has worked well enough that we can all go back to work following certain safety guidelines and not reignite the virus. But regardless of whether this mitigation strategy worked or didn't work we still must get back to work. The world survived, innovated, and began a sustained period of economic growth never seen before following the Spanish Flu scourge with no mitigation attempts whatsoever. History will decide if this lockdown strategy for this particular virus was worth the cost or not. Take note of Sweden's approach. They are the only advanced Western Nation that did not go into lockdown. Their government trusted their people to act rationally and in their own best interests. It may have worked.

A change in our way of life is inexorably dawning upon all of us. At some point in the future <say, under three years , the virus will eventually mutate its way out of our lives. The question is how long will it take and how much of our herd will it cull. As somebody else pointed out in this forum, Sweden is no success story. Until now, the best expert advice seems to be that in the face of the power of exponential contact, the name of the game is social isolation to a point where we reach fourteen consecutive days with zero new cases anywhere in the world. Does not seem likely to happen from what we can see right now.

Having said that, I suspect Natty's pov (which is a mild variant of Trump's pov) will prevail in the short term and as a result, we will likely see another round of surge in the reported cases and the social isolation lockdown process might have to be repeated. Trump's position is hugely influenced by his perception of electoral impact (and to hell with the rest).

[GettingFedUp]

If you look at cases per million, the numbers in Sweden aren't far off Denmark and Norway.

Sweden 1,463 cases per million.

Denmark 1,297 cases per million.

Norway 1,314 cases per million.

Finland 698 cases per million.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTAejTT3Iygl

The OP stated that "Their government trusted their people to act rationally and in their own best interests. It may have worked". Not that the economic benefit was worth it, but that the Swedish public had avoided each other without the intervention of Government. They didn't and it didn't work in those terms.

As to the cases conundrum why is Sweden's mortality rate (cases divided by deaths) so much higher than the neighbours? Actual mortality rate should be similar in countries with similar genetics, climates and health systems.

My money is that the neighbours are conducting more tests, finding more people little affected or asymptomatic (this is the German approach as well). Sweden may be only testing those that require hospital admission and key workers (the model the UK aspires to).

Quite simply if you don't look, you don't find. Someone snuffs it they get noticed, tested and counted (except in Old Folks Homes in certain countries). This is why deaths as a proportion of population is a better indication of the scale of the problem.

[Banana Boi]

Sweden's Covid deaths 1,540 (15.1 deaths per 100 k of population). Compare this to the neighbours:

Norway 165 deaths (3. 1 / 100 k).

Finland 94 deaths (1. 7 / 100 k).

Denmark 355 deaths (6. 1 / 100 k).

Does it really look like it worked?

These comparisons are not sufficient unless you know the percentage of the population that has been exposed to the virus. If you assume that 50% of the population in Sweeden has been exposed because of their limited lockdonwn, then you would expect the death toll to eventually double when everyone has been exposed. The more draconian the quarantine, the fewer peope exposed, so the lower the current death rate per 100 K. However, the death rate will go up as all people eventually get exposed. So say Denmark has only 10% of its people exposed, with 355 deaths. At 100% exposure, you would expect 3555 deaths, comparable to Sweeden. Since you cannot get immuniity (absent a vaccine) without exposure to the virus, all the quarantineing does is stretch out the deaths and not overwhelm the medical system, not reduce the number of total deaths.

If you look at cases per million, the numbers in Sweden aren't far off Denmark and Norway.

Sweden 1,463 cases per million.

Denmark 1,297 cases per million.

Norway 1,314 cases per million.

Finland 698 cases per million.

So Sweden has saved $10's of billions in economic loss for not much of an increase in cases per million and the loss of 1000+ extra lives. Harsh to put a dollar value on lives but that is what every country has to decide in the near future. Iran has decided today to reopen the entire country due to economic woes.

As long as Princess Tilde of Sweden is safe..... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTAejTT3Iygl

[Pimpampoumpipo]

Bangkok, Chonburi (including Pattaya) and Phuket are highly unlikely to be among the circa 50 provinces earmarked for partial reopening in the next couple of months. Expect more gogos and bars to be handing back the keys to their landlords in the near future.

Yes.

There are the same kind of measures taken in Europe with the same arguments for the progressive reopening of businesses and those prohibited. Governments seem to take poses by posting the biggest ranting and the most severe restrictions to do like the others and not give the impression of being lax.

We will see how long these positions will last in the face of the economic tsunami which is being prepared and which is spreading absolutely everywhere (the WTI drops by -40% on the single day today because there is a lack of oil consumption for example. Hopefully they will not ignite oil wells like during the Gulf War so as not to have to stop production).

There is a gigantic wave preparing to take everything. And the billions of euros / dollars announced so far are just so that companies don't close immediately and people starve but don't guarantee the future at all.

We will see how the governments of the world (Thais and other ones) put into perspective the damage from covid-19 and those even more appalling from an economic outcry that they will no longer be able to control.

[GettingFedUp]

These comparisons are not sufficient unless you know the percentage of the population that has been exposed to the virus. If you assume...

But we don't know the proportion of the populations exposed. So the comparison with the neighbours whilst flawed is the best available, particularly as they have similar climate. For a similar coronavirus (HCV229 E), which is one of the causes of the common cold, climate (both temperature and relative humidity) was found to be a significant driver of the half life of the virus in the environment (Source: US National Library of Medicine National Institutes of Health).

You then make all sorts of unsupported assumptions about proportion exposed in order to justify your initial conjecture. 68.72% of all statistics are completely made up in order to justify an opinion rather than to support a fact (Source: I just made it up to show how easy it is to quote numbers which have no basis in reality).

Since you cannot get immuniity (absent a vaccine) without exposure to the virus,

You obviously missed the caution from the World Health Organisation that there is no evidence yet that previous exposure ensures future immunity (Widely reported BBC / CNBC / Bloomberg to name a few as part of a warning of future over reliance on antibody tests).

all the quarantineing does is stretch out the deaths and not overwhelm the medical system, not reduce the number of total deaths.

But the whole idea of not overwhelming the medical system is so that equipment, staff and facilities are available for those patients who would die without them but might be saved with them. There is a big difference between "No ventilator, will die" and "Yes ventilator, might die or might survive".

Finally, as this is a Thailand thread, it was reported that Bangkok had a total of 120 ICU beds which they hope to increase to 187 by the end of April and 292 by the end of May (Bangkok Post 15 April). This seems odd when the same article says that there are 4,955 ICU beds in the rest of the country. My guess is that the journalist has tapped an extra 5 on the rest of the country number and the total ICU beds for Thailand is well under 1,000. But just a guess, rather like JB99's percentages!

[GettingFedUp]

The future for foreign P4 P in Thailand, Bangkok especially, is pretty bleak.

Bangkok Post put the following article up a couple of hours ago https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand...-exit-strategy.

Some excerpts:

"At a joint meeting between ministry officials and deans of faculties of medicine on how to ease the lockdown, all agreed some measures have to be relaxed although a return to pre-crisis normality is out of the question, said Kamnuan Ungchusak, an adviser to the Disease Control Department and to the public health minister on the Covid-19 situation".

"High-risk businesses will not be allowed to open at this early stage. Medium-risk businesses, which manage to minimise risks, can reopen, he said. He cited as examples of medium-risk businesses hair salons, eateries and department stores".

"he admitted high-risk businesses, such as bars, karaokes, entertainment places and gambling dens, would have to be closed for a long time".

"However, if the situation warrants closures of more businesses in the future, the order will not be universal and apply only to problematic places".

"However, not all 77 provinces will go ahead at the same pace. They will be allowed to reopen based on risks and by area".

"Based on the April 14 data, Dr Kamnuan said, 32 provinces are free of infections. "So 3-4 of these provinces may be opened first by the end of April. If the situation is under control, another 38 provinces with low numbers of cases will be reopened in the following two weeks, or in May. The seven provinces where infections slowly spread but with no large outbreaks will be reopened in June".

My observation. Bangkok, Chonburi (including Pattaya) and Phuket are highly unlikely to be among the circa 50 provinces earmarked for partial reopening in the next couple of months. Expect more gogos and bars to be handing back the keys to their landlords in the near future.

[Jimmy Boy 99]

Sweden's Covid deaths 1,540 (15.1 deaths per 100 k of population). Compare this to the neighbours:

Norway 165 deaths (3. 1 / 100 k).

Finland 94 deaths (1. 7 / 100 k).

Denmark 355 deaths (6. 1 / 100 k).

Source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality.

Does it really look like it worked?

These comparisons are not sufficient unless you know the percentage of the population that has been exposed to the virus. If you assume that 50% of the population in Sweeden has been exposed because of their limited lockdonwn, then you would expect the death toll to eventually double when everyone has been exposed. The more draconian the quarantine, the fewer peope exposed, so the lower the current death rate per 100 K. However, the death rate will go up as all people eventually get exposed. So say Denmark has only 10% of its people exposed, with 355 deaths. At 100% exposure, you would expect 3555 deaths, comparable to Sweeden. Since you cannot get immuniity (absent a vaccine) without exposure to the virus, all the quarantineing does is stretch out the deaths and not overwhelm the medical system, not reduce the number of total deaths.

[Turgid]

......Those with a healthy $ availability will flourish, those with minimal $ will flounder......

Same same as before covid?

[Rodwint2]

Which I don't get because it is already hot in places like Brazil and Philippines. How is it behaving there?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/sout...-show-why.html

Poor countries like Mexico, PI and Brazil are in denial. Not even reporting infections or death rates accurately. They don't care primarily because they have no money to treat any sick person anyway. One of the reasons the US has totally shut down border with Mexico. Only commercial traffic coming through.