Thread: Rants and WTF are you talking about and Coronavirus!
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05-23-20 09:58 #634
Posts: 22487Originally Posted by Arnold15 [View Original Post]
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05-23-20 09:47 #633
Posts: 737About the facts we know
I am not going to respond to anyone directly here and not aim any of the following assertions at anyone, it is just an illustration of some collected analysis from sources and not mere hearsay or anecdotal evidence.
This is a global forum where a lot of people are accustomed to travel and although not everyone here might have an elite education or be very articulate I am surprised at the nationalist chest thumping and to say it kindly the lack of a broad perspective when it comes to discussing the Covid19 pandemic. I was of two minds writing this, some of the responses I have read lack any intellectual rigor whatsoever and can not be construed of as rational arguments, but I have decided to respond nevertheless.
So why has Sweden become an issue of debate here, because it is the sole country in Europe that has advocated against an enforced lock down. So either Sweden knows something every other country in the Europe and wider world, with the exception of wonderfully rational politicians like Bolsanaro, does not know. Or it has chosen a questionable path that even its Nordic neighbors have rejected. The simple assertion that Sweden is right and everyone else is wrong is highly dubious, we will know at the very end of this but the evidence to date is not compelling.
- Arguments to dispute the assertions I have read on this forum.
1. We are not sacrificing our economy that also entails a cost, yes it does, but many countries have chosen this cost and not lightly, this represents a weak argument since in Sweden the economic cost of this pandemic is high anyhow, in fact it is in line with the contraction of the Eurozone and its Nordic neighbors, so if anyone was avoiding a lock down to defray the economic costs, this has not worked.
https://www.politico.eu/article/swed...9-light-touch/
2. We are going to reach herd immunity faster and avoid a second wave, this is in fact possible, but to date there is no evidence for this. Arguments like half the people have had it and we can't measure it are not serious assertions to base policies on, I at one point thought I had had it in March, however you can not be sure and I won't take the risk to get it.
The study in Sweden we have says that Stockholm is far from herd immunity.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...en-coronavirus
In fact the scientists that had predicted higher levels of herd immunity are surprised and said that their model has some seriously false assumptions behind it. Saying you know this is wrong isn't an argument to base serious policy on, it could be wrong and you could also win the lottery tomorrow.
3. The mortality rate is lower than other countries with a lock down. This is increasingly wrong with time.
I had said earlier that certain countries are in different phases of the pandemic, obviously Italy being ahead of the game, and without a lockdown the numbers would increase in Sweden. The fairest comparison would be with countries with similar population densities and climates, ie its Nordic neighbors, I don't think I have to quote any statistics here, they are all too obvious, but the mortality rate and rate of increasing cases in Sweden is many times higher than those countries, there is no doubt about it.
There are many factors as to why a country would have a higher Covid 19 mortality rate, higher population densities and high levels of vitamin D deficiency tend to be a factor. About the vitamin D deficiency, the Nordic countries do not have it but the Mediterranean countries, ie Spain and Italy do, this explains quite a bit.
First the argument was that Sweden had a lower mortality rate than many countries, ie the Netherlands (the most densely populated country in Europe), but now it has supassed the Netherlands and many other countries. The latest argument is that only 5 countries now surpass it. Yes some countries have down worse with a belated or late lock down.
Let us take the UK, this country has had an enormously disastrous and inefficient response to the pandemic, it a long with other countries, was late to respond, so nothing to be proud of here and furthermore England, just England, is even more densely populated than the Netherlands. Italy was first on the scene in Europe and represents a special case. Having a mortality rate lower than these examples is not a compelling argument to say that the national strategy in Sweden was correct. The best contrast would be with similar countries.
4. Only Sweden and Belgium count deaths accurately and in fact the mortality rate is lower than other countries that under count. I have read no evidence of the methodology in Sweden to support this, every country is under counting its deaths with the possible exception of Belgium. The reason is simple, Belgium attributes all non verified causes of death to Covid 19, so it is probably the only country that is over counting, as far as I know Sweden does not do this, does anyone have a credible source to counter this?
I am in fact disappointed that higher levels of immunity are not present and it would have been better for all of us in fact if this strategy was working, but there is not enough, or any, convincing statistical evidence to back this up yet. Therefore this blind sighted confidence in this unique policy is misplaced at present.
The only remaining argument I have heard is that the second wave will be far milder than other countries, that we will have to wait and see, however if it is not, than many people have died in vain. By the way, Herd Immunity was a strategy considered by quite a few European countries, notably the UK, and rejected due to the projected death toll.
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05-23-20 08:50 #632
Posts: 2207Originally Posted by Arnold15 [View Original Post]
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05-23-20 08:38 #631
Posts: 264Originally Posted by RogueNation [View Original Post]
It simply depends on that different countries identify real reasons to deaths in different ways.
Here, Belgium and Sweden are top countries since they identify the death reason - other countries (like France) do not.
The only way to calculate Corona-death are as follows:
Number of dead in April 2020 divided by average number of dead in April 2015-19.
Then you get how many percent died more than normal.
And this figure in Sweden is not higher 2020 than 1993, when there was a severe influence.
Comapring period February - May in Sweden 2020 with 2018, then only 1700 more dead people in 2020!
Almost all of them multi-dicesease and average age of 81!
Immunity is much higher than 7 % in Sweden and Stockholm. The Swedish Government has simply only poor test kit to identify antibodies.
At least 50 percent at my work place have had Corona - and it was like a cold for most of them.
Average age of "corona-identified" deaths is 81 years in Sweden.
Corona is only dangerous for ol people with underlying diseases.
Report from Stockholm.
And there is a real free life here.
And people do not die in the streets as some people at this forum seem to believe.
And only wait for the second wave. TSUNAMI in France and BREAZE in Sweden
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05-23-20 08:05 #630
Posts: 2394Originally Posted by Polyamorist [View Original Post]
So far all studies about general population rate of infection have found that less than 10% people were infected so far, most were quoting 5-7% (Sweden, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, US, Switzerland). That includes studies done specifically in areas where there were many reported infections.
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05-23-20 03:37 #629
Posts: 4759In France, chloroquine is not considered efficient versus covid, and many health accidents after taking. Quite dangerous if taken like a bonbon.
For how many years we are taking it to fight malaria, personally I took it at least 10 times, all the India medical staff are taking it, widely used in China and Korea, have a look at the notice of aspirin not sure you will ever take one.
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05-22-20 22:34 #628
Posts: 625Originally Posted by Polyamorist [View Original Post]
No heard immunity around the corner there as well. Former forecasts of high percentages of infections (30%) for Stockholm have been reduced to around 7% max.
RN.
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05-22-20 21:22 #627
Posts: 22487Originally Posted by Dreams [View Original Post]
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05-22-20 21:05 #626
Posts: 22487Originally Posted by RockyV [View Original Post]
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05-22-20 20:53 #625
Posts: 811Originally Posted by Dreams [View Original Post]
I guess in Stockholm they have 20-30% infected by now. It will be interesting to see what effect that has on the R0 number, and if Sweden will end up better than its locked-down neighbors.
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05-22-20 19:59 #624
Posts: 1184Originally Posted by Dreams [View Original Post]
Sweden got it right as usual, better economy and statistics than Spain, Italy, Belgium, France and the UK despite not having any lockdown and the fact that many of those countries are grossly underreporting the number of deaths.
Swedes could easily go to Portugal if they wanted to, you should stop hating and start reading the news.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.exp...es-Madeira/amp
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05-22-20 13:27 #623
Posts: 22487But we have deaths, not from virus, but killed by chloroquine with heart attack. Real facts, maybe French have more fragile heart than others. I won t take with my intense sports with heart in red zone for hours, sometimes under more than 35 Celsius degrees, in Bonette, Agnel, Izoard.
A bit like Viagra, be careful when You are not doctor, some medicine can kill.
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05-22-20 13:02 #622
Posts: 1812Originally Posted by Arnold15 [View Original Post]
And trying to put the high death rates in Sweden on poor immigrants would be laughable, if not very sad, when even locally produced data show that it was essentially in care homes. And elderly people left exposed to wide virus circulation.
Swedes don't ALWAYS get it right, in spite of what some of them would like to believe. They even messed up the way they manage (d) immigration, and now, compared to their neighbours, Danmark, Finland, Norway, they look terribly bad, to the point that they will be excluded form the free tracel Scandinavian bubble. So you will continue frolicking in Stockholm's parks, but won't be allowed anywhere else during the summer!
Good luck my friend!
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05-22-20 12:56 #621
Posts: 537Originally Posted by ExpatLover [View Original Post]
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05-22-20 12:05 #620
Posts: 6476Election
Originally Posted by Chongmal [View Original Post]