Rants and WTF are you talking about and Coronavirus!

[Arnold15]

I'm amazed that people can write about strategies against the Coronavirus without even mentioning the economy!

If the only single goal was to lower the number of deaths caused by see-19 all countries would still be in quarantine!

What Bolsonaro understands is that a lockdown would completely butcher the Brazilian economy! He's afraid of the consequences of a lockdown! He is looking one step further, being smarter, than people screaming in fear because of a virus. I'm extremely disappointed by the other political leaders. It will be rough for us in Nothern Europe, rougher for those in the South and a catastrophe for Brazil. 40 million unemployed in the US, but let's act as if there will be no consequences.

I've been reading comments that without a lockdown everyone will die or half of all people will die. Today we can easily dismiss those claims as scaremongering.

So how many would die? I don't know. No one knows. In Sweden we have 59 deaths among people under 50 years, is that much? I don't think so considering the consequences of a lockdown. This virus is killing the people that pretty much could die from anything.

I would love to blast our government for their incompetence, because they truly are incompetent, but no lockdown was a great and courageous decision to take. It's got nothing to do with nationalism, it was simply the right thing to do in my opinion.

In other countries people have too much of a sunk cost to admit or even entertain the thought that they might have been better off without a lockdown. That in combination with populistic politicians, the media and scared / dumb people lead to the acceptance of a lockdown.

As said, it's not about nationalism.

Very well written.

I fully agree with you.

The health and economic consequences of mass unemployment due to lock-down will become several times larger than the health consequences of the Covid19-virus.

[Arnold15]

Excess deaths can only be observed after the virus has disappeared, not after a 'second wave, which nobody wants to happen. It is still relevant to compare deaths with covid-infected patients under an epidemiological and medical point of view.

Virus may become attenuated (I. E. Weaker) like Spanish flu and remain in the population without the need of a vaccine. It may also disappear like with Sars. There are many ways in which a pandemic can end, not only through a vaccine, which remains the best and quickest way though!

Let me understand here, you want to take Belarus as a credible example in support of the Swedish approach to the pandemic. Belarus? A country, whose president said he doesn't believe in the pandemic because, and I quote, 'he does not see Covid fly in the air'? Really Arnold?

In addition, the vulnerable groups are NOT only elderly people with underlying conditions, but also all other people with respiratory diseases (including Asthma, COPD, CF etc.) all those recovering from cancer treatment, people of all ages with cardiovascular and kidney conditions and I stopped here because the list would be too long. There was absolutely no way of knowing the most vulnerable groups at the beginning of the pandemic because it was a brand new virus and, even now, we still do not fully understand how it works. DO NOT SPREAD FAKE NEWS and listen to the experts.

Sweden have chosen to avoid the lockdown and they now have almost 4000 deaths (or 389 every 1 M people) after having done 20,000 tests every 1 M people. Other countries with similar population size like Czechia, which closed down very early in the epidemic, they have 29 deaths every 1 M people) after having done 36,000 tests every 1 M people.

Sweden has taken a gamble and now they are counting corpses.

Statistics on reported Corona-death are not comparable between countries. Countries count deaths in different ways.
Also take account of number of infected. And wait for the second wave. It will happen. You apparantly did not take account of that in your biased statistics.

More than 93 % of dead people in Sweden are older than 70 years. Average age of Corona-deaths: 81 years.
Almost all have at least one underlying disease.

Why then isolating young and healthy people and killing healthy firms?

More clever to let society be open and protect risk groups.

NO.
The Big Gamble is to lock down the whole economy.
Nobody (neither you) knows the consequences of this, since it has never been applied before during any pandemic.
Your main argument is "Everybody else locked down, so it must be the correct strategy".

Did you take account of the health consequences of mass-unemployment?

Please, stop spreading Fake News.
China does this every day to get economic advantages.

[Arnold15]

First of all, everything about economics is wrong in that post. Sweden doesn't gain any GDP towards other countries because they are a little more open for a few months. I first came to Frankfurt because of the banks were there so I know some things about this.

Sweden is a small open economy with a floating currency, in the long view, how the rest of the world goes Sweden will go.

And the notion that Sweden is the only country that can count dead people the right way is ridicoulus.

I have never written that Sweden gain any GDP towards other countries because they are a little more open for a few months.
Did you mix the posts?

If lock-down is a clever strategy that do not harm the economy.
Why not locking down the economy for 2-3 years?
Future will show if Sweden or Spain / Italy / France will beg for money and loans from EU / ECB.

I never said that only Sweden counts Corona-dead people the right way.
I said that countries count in different ways.
In such case, comparing statistics with reported Corona-deaths between countries is worthless.

The only accurate way to compare countries is to count "excess deaths".
How many died this year compared to previous years.

[Arnold15]

Not nationalistic.

It is about economic rationality.

It was early well known which people were in the risk group of Covid-19: old people with underlying diseases like hypertension, diabetes, heart- and lung-problems.

A clever strategy would be to keep society open and focus on protection of the risk groups.

Anyway, politicians like Macron chose to isolate young and healthy people and slaughter the whole society, because "other countries did the same" or "China told us to lock-down".
"If all others do the same, then this strategy must be the correct one".
But here, China has a Hidden Agenda. China wants US and Europe to lock down, in order to get an economic lead.

Many European and US firms - as in the automobile sector - will soon wake up and find themselves in a real bad position.

There is absolutely no previous experience of total lock-down and the consequences of such a non-clever strategy.
Anyway, this extremely risky strategy has been applied.
It is not possible to pause the whole economy like an X-Box game, and then believe that everything will work as usual.
Important. Unemployment will cause deaths too, in the form of suicides, mental health and alcoholism. Often people with many remaining years to live will die. But these deaths are more abstract.

As I have written, Swedish Government made severe mistakes by not isolating risk groups at retirement homes.
Visits to elderly people at retirement homes were forbidden on April 1.
Secondary schools and universities - with no risk groups - were closed on March 17 ! Compare!
Sports arenas were closed even earlier.

When Swedish people returned from Austria and Italy in February, those working in Government administration (e.g. Departments, Central bank and different authorites) were sent home.
But returning people who worked at hospitals or retirement homes were not sent home! Not very clever.

I do not have any faith whatsoever for these immunity-tests performed in Sweden.
Huge numbers have been sick with Corona-symptoms in the period February-May in Sweden.
I also know people that have tested positive for immunity. But only those who were sick the last weeks. Not those that were sick in February and March.
We do not know which level of antibodies a person must possess to get a positive test result. Several tests have circulated in Sweden the last months.

About one point, I would differ, I do know a lot about Stockholm, since I had lived there for over 3 years, but this was a long time ago. Your response is quite measured and temperate, however the arguments I have heard from others are really not rationale and are based upon certain tenets of faith. Well I am familiar with this blind faith and confidence which is inspired by nationalist feelings.

I would just gently say this, about comparing to neighboring countries with similar climates and population densities (Denmark's is a lot higher though) you can see what the differing mortality rates from a severe vs a very relaxed lock down could be, really the fairest test would be the exact same environment, but this is obviously not possible.

The level of immunity should be higher in societies which have a more relaxed or no lock down, however it seems that in every systematic test in every place these numbers are far lower than the proponents of herd immunity have advocated. Some studies say it is up to 20% in New York, that could only be the case given its very high urban density, it would be far lower in LOS Angeles (I know both cities quite well) given the lock down in both places, I these the North American lock downs are far less strict than the European ones.

I would expect Sweden to have more people who are immune, but thus far these numbers as verified by studies are still far too low and the prediction of herd immunity by June or August is premature.

The assertion that these tests are flawed and many more people are surely immune is unfortunately just a matter of faith in the absence of hard evidence.

[McGrath]

First of all, everything about economics is wrong in that post. Sweden doesn't gain any GDP towards other countries because they are a little more open for a few months. I first came to Frankfurt because of the banks were there so I know some things about this.

Sweden is a small open economy with a floating currency, in the long view, how the rest of the world goes Sweden will go.

And the notion that Sweden is the only country that can count dead people the right way is ridicoulus.

[Chongmal]

the North American lock downs are far less strict than the European ones.

I would expect Sweden to have more people who are immune, but thus far these numbers as verified by studies are still far too low and the prediction of herd immunity by June or August is premature..

History will tell as it always does, and the winners usually get to write the story. Lockdown or no lockdown is the question and the answer is simple. The lockdown slowed the virus spread, allowing governments, hospitals and medical providers to become more prepared. This came at great expense and is delaying the spread of the virus. Not locking down let's the virus spread and in vulnerable sections of society the cost of life is higher. The reall story will arrive if / when a safe vaccination is available. If this happens this summer, then lockdown proponents will celebrate their success in saving millions of lives. If the cavaccine doesn't arrive for another 10 years the chapter will already have been written and many countries around the world will have suffered great economic loss. Of course, the antivacs groups will stand in protest, saying the government is poisoning their children.

[Delta Indigo]

It is nothing wrong in that post.
I live in Stockholm and follow what happens here every day.

But people in this forum who DO NOT LIVE in Stockholm and who do not know what is going on here, seem to know more about Sweden than Swedish inhabitants.
Systematically referring to super-biased statistics.

And they do not know how to calculate "excess deaths".
And definitely do not understand what "the second wave" means.

Especially, they do not know what kind of mistakes the Swedish government did.
1. Not isolating people at retirement homes and 2. Not informing immigrant groups.

About one point, I would differ, I do know a lot about Stockholm, since I had lived there for over 3 years, but this was a long time ago. Your response is quite measured and temperate, however the arguments I have heard from others are really not rationale and are based upon certain tenets of faith. Well I am familiar with this blind faith and confidence which is inspired by nationalist feelings.

I would just gently say this, about comparing to neighboring countries with similar climates and population densities (Denmark's is a lot higher though) you can see what the differing mortality rates from a severe vs a very relaxed lock down could be, really the fairest test would be the exact same environment, but this is obviously not possible.

The level of immunity should be higher in societies which have a more relaxed or no lock down, however it seems that in every systematic test in every place these numbers are far lower than the proponents of herd immunity have advocated. Some studies say it is up to 20% in New York, that could only be the case given its very high urban density, it would be far lower in LOS Angeles (I know both cities quite well) given the lock down in both places, I these the North American lock downs are far less strict than the European ones.

I would expect Sweden to have more people who are immune, but thus far these numbers as verified by studies are still far too low and the prediction of herd immunity by June or August is premature.

The assertion that these tests are flawed and many more people are surely immune is unfortunately just a matter of faith in the absence of hard evidence.

[Arnold15]

With that post and all the wrongs in it you include yourself in your own statement.

It is nothing wrong in that post.
I live in Stockholm and follow what happens here every day.

But people in this forum who DO NOT LIVE in Stockholm and who do not know what is going on here, seem to know more about Sweden than Swedish inhabitants.
Systematically referring to super-biased statistics.

And they do not know how to calculate "excess deaths".
And definitely do not understand what "the second wave" means.

Especially, they do not know what kind of mistakes the Swedish government did.
1. Not isolating people at retirement homes and 2. Not informing immigrant groups.

[The Cane]

With that post and all the wrongs in it you include yourself in your own statement.

Exactly what I was thinking and more, including a lack of knowledge regarding both medical science and history. But, enough said already.

[McGrath]

Unfortunately, knowledge about statistcs in this forum is zero.
.

With that post and all the wrongs in it you include yourself in your own statement.

[ShooBree]

I'm amazed that people can write about strategies against the Coronavirus without even mentioning the economy!

If the only single goal was to lower the number of deaths caused by see-19 all countries would still be in quarantine!

What Bolsonaro understands is that a lockdown would completely butcher the Brazilian economy! He's afraid of the consequences of a lockdown! He is looking one step further, being smarter, than people screaming in fear because of a virus. I'm extremely disappointed by the other political leaders. It will be rough for us in Nothern Europe, rougher for those in the South and a catastrophe for Brazil. 40 million unemployed in the US, but let's act as if there will be no consequences.

I've been reading comments that without a lockdown everyone will die or half of all people will die. Today we can easily dismiss those claims as scaremongering.

So how many would die? I don't know. No one knows. In Sweden we have 59 deaths among people under 50 years, is that much? I don't think so considering the consequences of a lockdown. This virus is killing the people that pretty much could die from anything.

I would love to blast our government for their incompetence, because they truly are incompetent, but no lockdown was a great and courageous decision to take. It's got nothing to do with nationalism, it was simply the right thing to do in my opinion.

In other countries people have too much of a sunk cost to admit or even entertain the thought that they might have been better off without a lockdown. That in combination with populistic politicians, the media and scared / dumb people lead to the acceptance of a lockdown.

As said, it's not about nationalism.

[Rocky V]

Unfortunately, knowledge about statistcs in this forum is zero.
Continuing comparing apples with pies.
People refer to investigations about antibodies and Corona-deaths with no value at all.

Only statistics on "excess deaths" are valid. And the real conclusion will be known after the second wave.

Excess deaths can only be observed after the virus has disappeared, not after a 'second wave, which nobody wants to happen. It is still relevant to compare deaths with covid-infected patients under an epidemiological and medical point of view.

If anyone really thinks that one can not become immune after Covid-19, then there will neither be any vaccine that works.

Virus may become attenuated (I. E. Weaker) like Spanish flu and remain in the population without the need of a vaccine. It may also disappear like with Sars. There are many ways in which a pandemic can end, not only through a vaccine, which remains the best and quickest way though!

People claim that "the Swedish strategy is dubious " and "Sweden makes an experiment by NOT locking down". (Sweden is not the only country, also Belarus)

Let me understand here, you want to take Belarus as a credible example in support of the Swedish approach to the pandemic. Belarus? A country, whose president said he doesn't believe in the pandemic because, and I quote, 'he does not see Covid fly in the air'? Really Arnold?

In addition, the vulnerable groups are NOT only elderly people with underlying conditions, but also all other people with respiratory diseases (including Asthma, COPD, CF etc.) all those recovering from cancer treatment, people of all ages with cardiovascular and kidney conditions and I stopped here because the list would be too long. There was absolutely no way of knowing the most vulnerable groups at the beginning of the pandemic because it was a brand new virus and, even now, we still do not fully understand how it works. DO NOT SPREAD FAKE NEWS and listen to the experts.

Sweden have chosen to avoid the lockdown and they now have almost 4000 deaths (or 389 every 1 M people) after having done 20,000 tests every 1 M people. Other countries with similar population size like Czechia, which closed down very early in the epidemic, they have 29 deaths every 1 M people) after having done 36,000 tests every 1 M people.

Sweden has taken a gamble and now they are counting corpses.

[McAdonis]

What works for Sweden would not necessarily work for other countries. One, Sweden only has three cities with a population of over 300 K. Two, Sweden is a rich country and with low levels of inequality, in terms of money and access to medical care. This does not hold true for countries like Brazil. The population of Sao Paulo (12 million urban, 21 million metro) is larger than the entire country of Sweden (10 million). Poor people in Brazil do not have the option to social distance nor do they have the savings to sit at and home and reduce their exposure. In earlier forecasts, the Swedish authorities predicted 33 percent immunity by early May, but that figure currently sits at 7 percent in Stockholm. This suggests that Swedish have been fairly good at practicing social distancing, despite there being no "official lockdown".

Sweden's approach has been unique in that most people exhibit a sense of trust and duty toward their fellow gym-goers. He said that Sweden has a culture of being more conscientious about following the rules, a phenomenon Business Insider previously reported on.

"I don't think that Swedish gyms have had a radical approach to this situation, it's just that people are a bit more mindful and careful," he said. "It mostly comes down to gym-goers feeling that sense of social responsibility."

https://www.insider.com/what-its-like-gyms-in-sweden-where-lockdowns-never-happened-2020-5

Brazil's death toll meanwhile surged past 20,000 Thursday.

A closer look at the data raises questions about the widely held idea that COVID-19 is mainly dangerous for the elderly.

Of Brazil's victims, 69 percent were aged 60 or older, compared with 95 percent in Spain and Italy, according to official statistics.

The disparity is partly driven by the age of the overall populace: Just 13.6 percent of Brazil's population is 60 or older, compared to 25 percent in Spain and 28 percent in Italy.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/05/22/in-brazil-covid-19-hitting-young-people-harder.html

[Sirioja]

Please remove "me" from that "we". I may be crazy, but I'm not stupid! As another poster on this site noted, why doesn't he go ahead and double his dosage of the chloroquine? After all. What's he got to lose? Ha!

I'm not American and unfortunately in France we don't have often a president who learned arithmetic for economy at school, but Trump and Bolzonaro are same crazy with same results. I may not be clever enough or maybe my social side, but compare to Obama, just Niagara falls, from my point of view, when Trump is same ready for anything than WGs. Maybe more dangerous than Putin. Can t understand telling about pride when just behaving ridiculous. For sure, not a good image for US in Western Europe, maybe for Japan about China. I also don't understand about still free weapons when no more Navajos with arrows, and crazy shooting every day people, most often Black, like Brunswick Georgia. When no more far west.

[Arnold15]

Unfortunately, knowledge about statistcs in this forum is zero.
Continuing comparing apples with pies.
People refer to investigations about antibodies and Corona-deaths with no value at all.

Only statistics on "excess deaths" are valid. And the real conclusion will be known after the second wave.

If anyone really thinks that one can not become immune after Covid-19, then there will neither be any vaccine that works.

Comparing death rates in Sweden with neighboring countries at this moment is nonsense, since Sweden must have XX times more infected (and immune) than Norway, Denmark and Finland that have applied a total premature lock-down strategy.

People claim that "the Swedish strategy is dubious " and "Sweden makes an experiment by NOT locking down". (Sweden is not the only country, also Belarus).
But in reality, it is the opposite.
European countries that lock-down their economies undertake the biggest experiment in modern history.

Amazing that people don't know how similar pandemies have been handled in the past.
During the Asian and HongKong-influences in the 1950's and 1960's there was no lock down whatsoever.
And the economies recovered very fast after the pandemies.

This lock-down is something completely NEW and a real EXPERIMENT.
This time, it will take very long time for economies to recover, due to the stupid lock-down strategy.

No, Sweden does not know anything that other countries do not know. We simply do what is normal in such a situation.

Other European countries have swallowed the "fake news" from China that the whole population must be isolated to handle the pandemic.
Bull-shit.
When most Euroopean countries locked down their economies, the risk groups of Covid-19 were already identified and known world-wide: Old people with underlying diseases.
Most countries decided to isolate their young populations anyway! Not a very clever strategy.

Yes, Sweden did two BIG MISTAKES:
1. Older people in retirement homes were NOT isolated (Instead secondary schools and universities were closed!) Elderly people at these homes continued to meet 10-20 different assistants per week. This is death group No. 1 in Sweden.
2. Older people in immigrant areas were not informed about Covid-19, because they do not understand Swedish. (Reflecting the disastrous Swedish immigration and integration policies). This is death group No. 2 in Sweden.