General Reports

[GettingFedUp]

For my part, I like the facts.

Not a problem, facts wanted so facts you shall have:

Fact 1 IATA is the International Air Transport Association. It is a trade Association not a national government.

Fact 2 IATA has no control over national borders anywhere so their view of the outlook is an opinion not a fact.

Fact 3 As a trade Association their opinions may "possibly" be influenced by the vested interests of their member airlines (they'd be a crap Association if they campaigned against their members) . Their opposition to quarantines in the article you quote is a case in point. They make no public health claims to counter their imposition, just stating "Quarantine is a major deterrent for air travel".

Fact 4. The article you quote has precisely zero references to Thailand. It also has zero references to July and / or August. So your statement in the Thailand General thread that "The current context allows to think the borders will soon open. First for certain categories of people in July (business, .) then for tourists (probably since August)" is at best speculation not fact, at worst a complete non sequitur.

Fact 5. The situation here appears very different to many countries, both from personal "boots on the ground" experience and postings on this and other forums. I only recall one instance of a contributor on here giving details of a death which they felt had been covered up (an American gentleman in Buriram around 9 April if I recall) and a few minutes digging into the available data identified a likely match which the the contributor was satisfied with. Definitive matching simply not possible given anonymity both on here and in the published data.

Fact 6. You explicitly asked for opinions. You got them (together with the warning about being careful what you ask for, which you seem to have ignored), perhaps with my opinionated insight / thoughts about how Thailand works differently (and members of the jury save me the response that it rarely works at all). Now you only want facts.

The case on the factual evidence for the defence rests, M'Lud.

Closing statement. Ladies, gentlemen and persons who because of their gender identity it might breach site rules to mention explicitly, of the jury. The defence has, as requested by the plaintiff, laid out a factual rebuttal to their case. On these factual matters your duty is to determine whether the defendant, Mr GettingFedUp is liable for a breach of duty in providing opinions as requested for the travel outlook to Thailand. That the plaintiff didn't like those opinions and so squealed like a pig is should not cloud your judgement. Thank you members of the jury, thank you M'Lud.

[Franciscass]

Listen man. You said that shit. I am at Jomtien Beach right now. I have never seen so many damn people here. Cars are lined up end to end on the street and people are lined up from end to end on the beach. (I do mean end to end because I drove the entire length.) And it was the same at Pattaya Beach before I drove over here.

Now I see why they were worried about people crowding the beaches if the had stayed open. I never saw near this many people when the place was open to foreigners. They have the banana boats and jetskis out for rent and the water is full of people. For mfs that think people are starving around here and these people can not make it in life without their money, then congratulations on fooling yourself.

Pattaya, Jomtien, Samui, Phuket, lower Sukhumvit are on life-support. Sure locals visit beaches at weekends, Jomtien and Bang saen are particularly popular but they don't spend a whole lot. Most take lunches and drinks with them, chill in groups till the sun goes down and then head home. There is I believe real hardship for workers still around as evidenced by the length of daily queues for food handouts. Sure some girls are getting by turning cheap tricks, sure the smarter ones are doing better than some others but overall for most of them it's pretty dire and will be until tourists in numbers are allowed back in.

[Pimpampoumpipo]

I understand your keenness to get back to Thailand, but you really cannot apply the world view of IATA to this country, now or ever. After all, "TiT".

Thank you for your opinion.

Everyone doesn't care what I think. Because it is not the subject. The subject of my post is about people who are waiting to know when they can get plane tickets and how will happen their arrival in Thailand.. That's all.

For my part, I like the facts. Not generalities that have no meaning in the context of the covid in June 2020, some of "I think that" or "IMHO".

When I post I try to shore up either with articles from relevant organizations, with newspaper articles or with images. Eventually I try to identify a trend. With material that I think is credible. I don't just say "I think the farangs can come back in November, December, 2021 or with my crystal ball".

If you think IATA advice is worthless, please prove it with real and detailed arguments. I can receive them without any problem.

[Pimpampoumpipo]

1 - Beach road last Tuesday with traffic jams on beach road and the beach full of Thai https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JWUhWbBRGU.

2 - Beach road in January 2020 before the covid https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S12TlrYveiQ.

Everyone will make their own opinion.

[GettingFedUp]

Listen man. You said that shit. I am at Jomtien Beach right now. I have never seen so many damn people here.

Indeed MrE. They are probably here because Bang Saen beach towards Laem Chabang is too busy. Did you see the photos from there the weekend after the beach closures were lifted?

There are a lot who post on here and other forums who quote the 18% figure for tourism as justification why borders have to be opened. They overlook the big numbers of Thais who migrate down here pretty much every weekend (under anything resembling normal conditions). Most of them don't spend huge bucks, although there are a lot of Bangkokians (both middle class Thai and Expat) who bring the family to the beach at least a couple of times a month and stay in mid-range hotels, both in Pattaya and particularly to Hua Hin. The sheer numbers make the spend significant. I recall seeing a figure of 45% of Pattaya tourist gross revenue is domestic, which those who rarely, if ever, venture beyond the area encompassed by Dolphins Roundabout, the sea, Soi Buakhao & Bali Hai pier just laugh off as nonsense.

[Mr Enternational]

The second point is to emphasise that tourism, even though it is often cited as 18% of the economy (not all of that is International tourism), is not a huge earner for the decision makers.

Listen man. You said that shit. I am at Jomtien Beach right now. I have never seen so many damn people here. Cars are lined up end to end on the street and people are lined up from end to end on the beach. (I do mean end to end because I drove the entire length.) And it was the same at Pattaya Beach before I drove over here.

Now I see why they were worried about people crowding the beaches if the had stayed open. I never saw near this many people when the place was open to foreigners. They have the banana boats and jetskis out for rent and the water is full of people. For mfs that think people are starving around here and these people can not make it in life without their money, then congratulations on fooling yourself.

[Franciscass]

This sounds like a complex grammatical scenario of getting back to how is didn't use to be. Rather like the passage in The Hitchhikers Guide To The Galaxy dealing with the grammatical problems of time travel. Extra participles are needed to describe things that one has already done but in a future time and also things that one has not yet done but when one does them they will be done in the past.

Sorry, I digress.

Bars and nightlife to open 1 July, subject to endorsement from the full CCSA (for which read the PM) next Friday, and also subject to the proviso that Provincial Governors still have the option to tighten restrictions beyond the National rules. https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand...ghtlife-venues . And of course a lot can change between now and then.

Public health guide for the wearing of masks in entertainment venues attached (and no, I don't have her contact details to pass on).

Agree using the phrase getting back to something new is an obvious contradiction in terms. Lets leave it as just getting to whatever the new normal is. Incidentally I was also a fan of the The Hitchhikers Guide To The Galaxy science fiction at its trippy best.

[Ed Setra]

I don't claim to fully comprehend the Thai psyche and culture. However, I have learned enough to understand that I will never fully comprehend the Thai psyche and culture!

I understand your keenness to get back to Thailand, but you really cannot apply the world view of IATA to this country, now or ever. After all, "TiT".

And finally. Your biggest mistake? You asked for opinions! "Be careful what you wish for, you may receive it".

Can't argue with any of that GFU. Good assessment. Even November / December is overly optimistic for Farang visitors IMHO. Hope I am wrong.

[Stykler]

Public health guide for the wearing of masks in entertainment venues attached.

And that's a very thoughtful gesture indeed!

[GettingFedUp]

back to the new normal...

This sounds like a complex grammatical scenario of getting back to how is didn't use to be. Rather like the passage in The Hitchhikers Guide To The Galaxy dealing with the grammatical problems of time travel. Extra participles are needed to describe things that one has already done but in a future time and also things that one has not yet done but when one does them they will be done in the past.

Sorry, I digress.

Bars and nightlife to open 1 July, subject to endorsement from the full CCSA (for which read the PM) next Friday, and also subject to the proviso that Provincial Governors still have the option to tighten restrictions beyond the National rules. https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand...ghtlife-venues . And of course a lot can change between now and then.

Public health guide for the wearing of masks in entertainment venues attached (and no, I don't have her contact details to pass on).

[GettingFedUp]

Interesting article from IATA if you need to adapt your ticket purchasing strategy for your next long distance flights. Today there are relatively inexpensive tickets for BKK (probably from all destinations in the world).

There may be tickets, but will there be flights? I've read plenty of accounts of people booking fights out only for them to be cancelled time and again (I think LittleBigMan had a relative who suffered this). Refund? Six months the airlines say.

The current context allows to think the borders will soon open. First for certain categories of people in July (business, ....) then for tourists (probably since August).

There is a saying about the way things operate differently in Thailand "TiT" (This is Thailand).

Firstly you have a nation where from an early age the population are indoctrinated (some would say brainwashed) to be massively patriotic (some would say xenophobic) - as an example it is a mantra of many Thais that their country has never been invaded, conveniently overlooking the Burmese-Siam wars in the mid-18th century and events of December 1941. As an aside the English often claim not to have been invaded since 1066, overlooking the "Glorious Revolution" of 1688.

Secondly you have the structure of Thai society. Money and the power over decision making is vested in the military and a small cabal of "old money" families. The term "Elite" is often used, but I refuse to because the word means superior, and some of them are real buffoons. So what influences the decisions of these rich and powerful people? More money and more power! Both "old money" and "new money" people are tolerated so long as they play the game. If they buck the system they become persona non grata.

What do the above mean for travel? The first point is to illustrate that whatever becomes the "new normal" for International Travel, Thailand in so many ways didn't even conform to what westerners would view as the "old normal". The "never invaded" mentality will IMHO be applied to the virus and those in power will preen themselves at having seemingly prevented invasion by Covid, and will keep the drawbridge up and the portcullis down to keep it that way. Thai citizens are being repatriated slowly. I read that they have weekly flights booked for at least the next month from Egypt, so how long until the exercise is completed globally? Who knows. Then there are the foreign holders of marriage visas who are stranded abroad. Borders in the rest of the world opening up? Never mind, "TiT".

The second point is to emphasise that tourism, even though it is often cited as 18% of the economy (not all of that is International tourism), is not a huge earner for the decision makers. Far more to be made on infrastructure projects and monopolistic utilities. Just have a look at the ownership of the companies making up the consortium for the $9 billion UTapao airport expansion (which seems to be a Public Health project) and the hurdle being placed by the Navy who would have to provide most of the land for it and will demand a sizeable sum which is unlikely to be spent on ordinary seamen's salaries, ships or submarines.

Those in power have also seen that the drive for mass tourism from China brought relatively little money into Thailand, and particularly into their personal coffers. So much of it was so called "zero dollar" tours where the Chinese operator sells an all inclusive package and then screws down hotels, restaurants, bus and guide companies on price, particularly once they have become reliant on these tour groups for a high proportion of their business. Again no huge appetite to rush to open borders.

Another aside. Some use the volume of visitors from China (and particularly Wuhan) as a reason why Thailand "must" be lying about infection numbers, overlooking (or being completely ignorant of) the situation where Chinese tour groups generally only get near enough each other, hotel staff, tour guides and bus drivers to pass any lurgy that they are carrying. There were cases of infection in the last two of those categories. Get more than 5 metres from the guide with a flag on a radio aerial or umbrella? Nah.

So to summarise, IMHO inbound mass tourism, with the possible exception of countries with zero or near zero recent infections and with significant hurdles, is not on the Thai agenda for the next 3 months. For those willing to pay significant amounts for testing, quarantine, etc things may be different (Cambodia this week announced a $3,000 deposit from which will be deducted testing fees, transport fees, hotel & meal fees whilst awaiting test results and you still have to have $50,000 of medical cover for Covid on top). Beyond that? My view is that hard hit countries (of which sadly there are now so many) will not be visiting before high season (say November) and it may be far longer than that.

I don't claim to fully comprehend the Thai psyche and culture. However, I have learned enough to understand that I will never fully comprehend the Thai psyche and culture!

I understand your keenness to get back to Thailand, but you really cannot apply the world view of IATA to this country, now or ever. After all, "TiT".

And finally. Your biggest mistake? You asked for opinions! "Be careful what you wish for, you may receive it".

[Franciscass]

".... As a result, a large meeting has been scheduled with all relevant parties and the CCSA tomorrow, Sunday June 21,2020. This meeting is expected to directly address when and how entertainment venues can re-open. ".

Oh oh so soon we will maybe know: https://thepattayanews.com/2020/06/2...qHkvfQY32nuDXq.

Note that for the moment there are still no tourists in Pattaya (no "customers" to be more precise). It therefore remains possible that if this announcement is confirmed it will converge with the opening (more or less) of the borders.
(invalidated in the event of a new wave of SARS-CoV-2)

Opening borders and opening entertainment venues I feel are separate issues. Agree it's pointless opening bars and gogo's in Pattaya unless you also open borders as there will be few customers for these business's but the majority so called entertainment venues are local. I can see pretty much everything back to the new normal in the country by July but with most western visitors still waiting for restrictions to ease.

[Kerfuffle]

Interesting article from IATA if you need to adapt your ticket purchasing strategy for your next long distance flights. <snip>

https://www.businesstraveller.com/bu...-to-zero-iata/

invalidated in the event of a new wave of covid-19.

Other opinions?

My two baht: Not to be a bummer, but IMHO, save for any "travel bubbles" in the short term that you mention (and even those are uncertain, and if and when ever put in place, could be rescinded at a moment's notice, IMHO), I'm of the view that until there's a coronavirus vaccine, then things on the travel front (internationally for sure, as well as on a country-by-country domestic basis), will simply be upended.

Additionally, looking ahead to November 2020, as this article focusing on the IATA does, is of no utility, IMHO (note that the IATA is an organization representing and promoting the interests of the global travel industry rather than those exclusively of public health, and that this article is but a momentary snapshot representing the IATA view that more of an IATA public relations exercise pushing resumption of air travel with lessened quarantine restrictions at arguably the expense of public health, and consequently IMHO isn't much in the way of real news), because even in countries that have made relatively good progress in flattening the curve of new coronavirus infections, there are continuing and periodic flareups currently, and notably, looking down the road to November, the northern hemisphere winter (geographic source of many international travelers) beginning around November is predicted by public health experts to be a time when new virus flareups (corona and common influenza) can be expected, and countries that are not allowing entry of most if not all travelers from other countries at this moment would consequently be hard-pressed to justify entry of those same travelers during a heightened infection northern hemisphere winter virus season, IMHO. The only predictable thing will be that things will be unpredictable, save for the aforementioned "likely" northern hemisphere winter flareup thing in the immediate short / medium term, until vaccines or miracle drugs are confirmed and become widely and easily available. Peace out.

[Mr Enternational]

In any case, this is for all of Thailand not Soi 6, Pattaya. I'd guess that almost every bar in Thailand is for Thai's and a very tiny proportion is for expats or tourists.

People are forgetting the 66 million Thais that live in Thailand. Today the beaches of Pattaya were full of Thais. I do not even want to think how many went over to Koh Larn today. I have never seen so many cars parked around Bali Hai Pier in my life. All the traffic is back to normal here with the exception of not having tour buses.

[Downandup]

Note that for the moment there are still no tourists in Pattaya (no "customers" to be more precise). It therefore remains possible that if this announcement is confirmed it will converge with the opening (more or less) of the borders.

It would not be possible for bars to stay in business if they continue to be closed until after tourists are allowed to return. It's looking like only a tiny number of people will be allowed into the country for the rest of the year.

In any case, this is for all of Thailand not Soi 6, Pattaya. I'd guess that almost every bar in Thailand is for Thai's and a very tiny proportion is for expats or tourists.