Rants and WTF are you talking about and Coronavirus!

[Sirioja]

Ouch. Thanks for that graphic imprint LOL. Yeah, nude resorts are the same. Never find any attractive young chicks.

Like swinger clubs, only uglies, when difficult for me to find attractive look at expensive Globe Zurich and never felt wow at Aphrodisia where girls are available for minimum 280.

[Rick Rock]

Why? Because we screwed up Covid response.

No. The total inability to respond to a viral outbreak predicted for years is just a symptom of a free fall that started decades ago.

http://www.ciis.org.cn/english/2011-...nt_4635120.htm

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...d-for-decades/

https://www.aclu.org/issues/smart-ju...-incarceration

https://chomsky.info/20110824/

Enjoy.

[Pistons]

And lets not talk about the Amish.

Plus, this can be found all over the world, and has nothing to do with Asia, nor east Asia. Studies performed in Bangladesh regarding microloans given out to highly religious women by the Grameen Bank of Bangladesh found that religious cult mindsets made people more likely to hold their words, and pay back their loans. But there were also massive downsides to this way The Grameen Bank operated (and still do to some degree). I am sure you can google that, but it leads to never ending poverty on large scale. And this is also seen with the black economy in China.

Furthermore, in Africa and South America, simillair cases has been seen, although not documented as well as with the Grameen Bank. The Freemasons of Europe for example, are notorious for having this belief that following a religion (christianity especially) are a massive net positive for capitalism as a whole due to these exact very same reasons. But they are essentially a cult. At every level. And this can be said about all the brotherhoods of christian europe. And even Skull and Bones in USA etc etc. And they all consider age first, then other ranks later. And these types of Cult Mindsets are always the same, and always dangerous.

[Pistons]

Given automation, there is no such thing as a demographic problem any longer. And due to the continuation of Moore's Law for the next 40 years due to 3 the stacking and new materials, the world will change its rules faster than you might think. So these old history studies are about to be dated. And we are about to enter the world of AI. And in this environment, I am starting to believe that a one world government is most likely the only way forward. Unless we want a global WW3 on our hands.

When it comes to these cultural differences Chongmal talks about, that is just one more of these "we are better than them" stories. And as much as BLM has something to it, such stories must also go. Because they are fake mindsets going forward, and only a source of racism.

They have also zip zero nothing to do with race or background, but a result of brainwashing. If you look at certain christian white european societies, such as the Mormons, Assemblies of God, Jehowas Witnesses or International Church of the Foursquare Gospel etc etc etc for example, you will find exactly the same stories as you just alluded to.

However, the term we use to describe these religious groups in university literature, are religious cults. And some might say, dangerous cults. Like in the book by Steven Hassan "Combatting Cult Mindcontrol", which looks at how Jehowas Witnesses live as an example. And on the same notion, as you are just alluding to, certain minority groups do operate exactly like as if they were culturally mindcontrolled cults. And that very notion is therefore also very dangerous.

[McAdonis]

Why is GDP per capita not a good measure of cross country comparison? What other measure is superior / reliable / accurate?

Like you say, there is no perfect metric. But from my basic economics class, I was told that when comparing countries, PPP should be used, especially when attempting to compare quality of life, since we take into consideration the basket of goods and services one would be able to afford domestically. If that was an oversimplified explanation that I was given, and there are better metrics, please explain why. Here are the side-by-side line charts for USA and DEU according to the GDP per capita PPP. In 2009, DEU's figure was about 75 percent that of the USA. In 2019, it is about 85 percent of the USA's, so it appears DEU has gained ground, not lost ground. According to OECD estimates, average hours worked in DEU is 1386 whereas in USA it is 1779. I do not know if it appropriate or meaningful to divide by hours worked, but if we calculated a GDP per capita PPP per hour worked, it comes out to $40 in DEU, whereas it is only $36 in USA: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator...-US&start=2009.

We are concerned about China as a nation but their people are still way below us; yes, when you made $5,000/ year 10 years ago and now $9,000 then you are bound to be optimistic, where as if I made $64 K last year and $62 K this year I may be dissatisfied. That is human nature. But no one can say $9 K is better than $62 K.

Quality of life is one thing. The "optimism" of a poor migrant worker in China, is because he is happy with his quality of life, despite his low GDP per capita. He believes his economic prospects for the future are promising, and thus he is less likely to join an extremist group. If China cannot escape the middle income trap, then that statement will no longer hold true, and social unrest would likely erupt in China.

Contrast that to a white factory worker in West Virginia who has seen his wages stagnate, while cost of living has increased. Or maybe he lost his job and the right wing media outlets and social media told him that the socialist liberals are to blame. Such a person might consider joining an extremist group, even if on paper, he makes four times more than migrant worker in China. That's human nature, like you say. He feels he deserves better.

Given history, we know that civil war has happened in USA. That was obviously the USA's greatest existential crisis. On a scale of the 1 to 10 that was a 10. How would you characterise the current moment? And in relation to previous periods of social unrest in USA?

I wish Europe had more dynamic people and eco systems. They are highly educated, but somehow or other not sufficiently risk taking. Why is there not enough new company formation? Why are they lagging so badly in tech?

Theory proposed here: https://www.europeangeneration.eu/si...-the-Tech-Race.

[Pessimist]

McAdonis,

One more thing. The average American may be thinking China steals technology and that would be accurate. They do, from US and from Europe as well. Is that the only thing average American knows about China? Who can say? But the thing is that the policy makers, company CEOs, investment professionals, economists et al know quite well about China. They are not underestimating China because they think China only steals and not much otherwise. Trump's Hua Wei ban is very much driven by an acute fear of China advancing too much. We are now trying to sop their 5 G development as much as possible.

So, no we are not sleeping at the wheel. We did. I said so in a prior post, that we partnered with them and let them advance too much and provided help in their advancement which hurt us. But many Americans have a good idea of the dangers posed by China. The average American is not involved in making policy decisions and the ones making them have a good idea.

Look, the largest Chinese company I. E Alibaba is listed on our exchange. We have dozens of key Chinese companies which sell their stock mainly on US exchanges. Our analysts and investors and portfolio managers speak to them every day. Safe to say, we are not unaware of them.

And BTW, there is always an excessive focus on Americans, our people, out thinking, our flaws, our mistakes. I don't believe the average anyone, be it European / Japanese / Chinese whatever it may be, is anymore enlightened about other nations. Yes, everyone knows about US, we seem to be the focus of curiosity of all around the globe. How educated is average German or French about the dangers posed by China to their economies? Why did Germans allow their networks built with Hua Wei, when Ericsson and Nokia are European? Why is Germany allowing technology theft and transfer to China? Why are German citizens OK with German companies setting up JVs with Chinese companies through which technology is transferred to China?

As for strife and unrest in China. It is a thuggish, totalitarian society. People know they will disappear if they say the wrong word. In Xinjiang, people cannot step out the door w / o being on camera. Now HK is going the rest of the mainland. China is an existential threat to many Western societies in the long run.

[Pessimist]

I haven't. I actually only ever saw a couple women in the regular sauna that even made my dick twitch. Most of the rest are memories burned into my brain I wish I could forget. Nothing like a lady bending over in front of you and cottage cheese popping into your mind. Then she turns a bit to the side and you see the white rockets hanging down toward the ground with water drop shaped ends and nippers stretched out flat. I got to the point where I just skepped them and went to the sauna club all day.

Ouch. Thanks for that graphic imprint LOL. Yeah, nude resorts are the same. Never find any attractive young chicks.

[Chongmal]

I would probably characterise myself as critical or fault-finding, rather than negative.

I like this approach and many other things you addressed, but cut most out to keep it shorter.

1. Inequalities are a thing, but I feel certain cultures thrive on them while others settle in to the situation. I will focus on Chinese, or rather the Asian culture, in the USA since you mentioned underestimating the Chinese. I have observed that within the Asian culture there is a high level of drive to generate respect of elders and peers. I think this is largely cultural, demanded from birth. I have been in social situations where the first focus is on Age, then Job title, then wealth, etc. Once this order is sorted the evening can proceed. This social programming extends into education and business. Striving to move up that social stack drives younger Asian students to succeed. It also drives Asian parents to drive their children.

On the business side of things, I have seen Asians approach things differently than what I see in Western European Americans, aka Whites. Whites go to the bank, try to get a loan, work on their own to save money to start up. I have observed Asians making near total sacrifice to get momentum. Following are real scenarios. A Korean family in California wanted to open a restaurant. They went to the corner store, owned my Koreans, bought ice cream, ordered coffee with the store owner, had a meeting and walked out with the cash to start the restaurant. Interest rates are higher than at a bank, and they had a wonky repayment where they paid interest only until they could pay the entire amount borrowed in lump sum. This is an example of Koreans helping Koreans progress, even though they are making money in doing so. Another example I saw was in Salt Lake City. A Chinese family bought a house, five Chinese families moved in. They all worked jobs, made the payments, and saved money. At the point where is was affordable, They bough another house and part of them moved over. The original investors still worked and pooled their money together to help pay for the properties. This continued until all families were moved into nicer neighborhoods instead of staying in poorer inner city areas. My last example I observed in Italy. I lived across from a Asian sweatshop of sorts. People would come in, sew all day and all night. They lived and worked in the same communal building. As time progressed, people saved enough money and managed to gain a legal status. Children went off to school, learning Italian and translating for their parents. I'm sure what I saw was close to human trafficking but the people went into this for options to improve their lives.

The reason I point these things out, even though they pass both state and international borders, is that it demonstrates how different cultures address inequalities, some thrive on fighting to overcome it while others let the inequalities for their future.

[Pessimist]

It's not a question of perspective, but objective reality. The US is clearly on the way out. No serious observers anywhere on earth suggest otherwise. Entire countries are reorganizing around this simple reality. You'd have to be some kind of totally deluded nationalist not to recognize the facts.

Why? Because we screwed up Covid response? The main reason we are this atrocious on Covid is because of current leadership and because of the unique nature of US / UK Anglo Saxon mindset. Ed Luce in FT had some interesting thoughts.

https://www.ft.com/content/d2d76a6f-...1-1c7dcea4c26f

"National identity is what separates the US and UK from other English-speaking democracies. Australia and New Zealand, which have been models of competence against Covid-19, are relatively young nations that struggled until recently to shed their "cultural cringe" to mother England. Canada's self-image is bound up with not being America.

The pandemic record of these three English-speaking democracies belies the notion that "Anglo-Saxon cultures" are too individualistic to stick to social distancing. If New Zealanders and Australians can wear masks, so could Americans and British. Ignoring common sense never used to be an anglophone stereotype. What separates the US and the UK from other democracies is extravagant self-belief. *Half a millennium of potted history tells Anglo-Americans they are destined always to be on the winning side. It blinds both to how the rest of the world increasingly views them, which is with sadness and growing mockery. *.

After pride comes the fall. What is the remedy? Just as humans can learn from their mistakes, nations can recover from episodes of overconfidence. Some scholars have likened America and Britain's premature relaxation of social distancing to a failure of Stanford University's marshmallow test. Five-year-olds were offered the choice between one marshmallow now or two marshmallows a few minutes later. Most children chose to eat one now. Follow-up studies showed that kids who resisted temptation proved far more successful in their adult lives. Much the same applies to the fate of our pandemic economies. *".

Anyway, I don't think many Americans are proud of US response to Covid, and polls reflect this. That said, to claim the richest, most powerful country in the world is on the way out and "The US is clearly on the way out. No serious observers anywhere on earth suggest otherwise. " is not a serious comment. Believe it if you want. Europe is NOT a country. It is a fractious group of nations thinking they have something in common, and half agreeing sometimes and bickering other times; in any case, they are floundering just as badly as US if not worse in general for many years and still have and't recovered from 2008 crisis very well. Unemployment rates in so many EU nations is just terrible.

If not US and EU, then who? Japan? Please -- it is very diminished, 2/3 of US GDP per capita, and 1/4 of our GDP and has been stuck in a no growth zone for 30+ years. If it is China, OK fine, keep your views, I wrote a lengthy response to McAdonis.

[Pessimist]

I would probably characterise myself as critical or fault-finding, rather than negative. I admit I focus more on negative things, but I see them as opportunities to improve. I am not overly convinced that GDP per capita is the end all, be all measure of the current economic welfare of the citizenry.

Compared to you, I seem to emphasize the social tensions and perceived inequalities more. The pandemic and social media shed brought these issues center stage, and extremist media on both sides probably exacerbated the divide. At some point, the inequality issue needs to be addressed. I am not saying running a country is like running a company, but if too many employees feel "left behind" or that they have "no skin in the game", they either disengage or actively sabotage. If my company is paying the highest average salary, is that the best metric to use? When employees start to feel upward mobility is not possible because the system is stacked against them, they give up. Perhaps, it is a matter of perception. By most metrics, a young rural White American or urban Black American is "richer" than your average Chinese migrant worker in Shanghai, but the latter is imbued with a sense of optimism for the future, if not for his own economic prospects, but for that of his children. Because USA has been the richest nation on earth for the past 75 years, does that create a sense of entitlement? Have working class Americans been spoiled? IDK. Are these anti-American beliefs?

Why is GDP per capita not a good measure of cross country comparison? What other measure is superior / reliable / accurate? We can build a spreadsheet of a thousand measures but that is not conclusive because on some, one country will be better and on other measures another country would be. Actually that is a fair reflection I agree because there is no such thing as one country is superior to another, but to the extent we are discussing economic comparisons and who is doing better, GDP per capita is the most comprehensive. We can also use per capita net income, per capita net worth etc but by and large they show the same / similar trend as GDP per capita and the quality of data for those is not as accurate as GDP per capita; I. E. Those metrics might not be readily available, not measured in the same way across countries, currency fluctuations play a huge role, etc.

Look, US will never be the most equitable. That is not a system we chose. On GINI index, we will always show worse than all Scandis for sure, worse than most of the Europeans and worse than even some developing nations. In a capitalist set up like ours with limited welfare state, the price you pay is that some people get richer and some fall behind. In times of stress, there is naturally some extra focus on the ones fallen behind when they die / riot etc. To think that results in some kinda revolution is a folly. Again, if you are confident, put down a date and tell us when this revolution will happen and what type of revolution? That is an impossible one to predict.

Yes, China is formidable, and we are concerned. Concerned, not scared. It is still quite poor. They perfected one system, became richer. They are like a Spanish clay court player who learned how to hit a forehand well and improved rank, but will that win them Wimbledon or will they become stagnant at #50 in the world as most SPanish tennis players do (there is only one Rafa). Many economists are skeptical if China can escape the middle income trap. They are reaching the upper level of the range commonly used for defining that trap. We will see. Countries are pushing and striking back. US-China trade relations have taken a turn and tough to see them going back to where they used to be, Trump or no Trump. UK is getting turned off. Trade w / Aus likewise is taking a turn for the worse. Their export led model is probably not enough to support prior levels of growth. They have antagonized almost all their neighbors and partners. FT, WSJ, other media have written tons of articles on this, I am not going to copy links to all of them, but they are there. We are concerned about China as a nation but their people are still way below us; yes, when you made $5,000/ year 10 years ago and now $9,000 then you are bound to be optimistic, where as if I made $64 K last year and $62 K this year I may be dissatisfied. That is human nature. But no one can say $9 K is better than $62 K.

BTW, the so called Chinese prowess in AI is not necessarily a given. THere is a lot of media froth. AI's value is enhanced when there is more and bigger data sets. China has 4 times more population. They have a regressive regime doing facial recognition. It does not mean they lead AI. Please don't copy links, I know what the media articles that are in free domain and can be copy / pasted will say. The reality is that China does not have the building blocks of that -- they have no semiconductor chips, their software companies are woeful, they still use US / EU / JP / KR made components to build their systems.

I wish Europe had more dynamic people and eco systems. They are highly educated, but somehow or other not sufficiently risk taking. Why is there not enough new company formation? Why are they lagging so badly in tech? Germany has perfected the auto / industrial economic engine but run the risk that technology changes will disrupt. Many thinktanks produced reports that say by 2050 a dominant share of global autos will be EV based and unit volumes will be below current trend lines (will still grow but not as much as they could have) due to driverless / ride sharing. What will Germany do? And a huge chunk of their industrial exports were trying to help China grow the manufacturing in China. Cutting / welding / stamping machines, assembly lines, etc etc. At some point, China might stop move up the technology chain and make those systems internally; as it is, China requires a JV with every German company trying to set up shop in China and Germany is continually doing technology transfer. I hope Germans know they are giving away their crown jewels to China over time. Korea on the other hand has never done that, being Asians they know exactly what China can do.

[Chongmal]

I have always wanted to go to these sauna resorts in Germany but never did. I would decide to go to one on a particular day but end up going to an FKK instead. Has any ISG member banged a woman from these saunas?

I haven't. I actually only ever saw a couple women in the regular sauna that even made my dick twitch. Most of the rest are memories burned into my brain I wish I could forget. Nothing like a lady bending over in front of you and cottage cheese popping into your mind. Then she turns a bit to the side and you see the white rockets hanging down toward the ground with water drop shaped ends and nippers stretched out flat. I got to the point where I just skepped them and went to the sauna club all day.

[Turgid]

I see https://www.meditherme.de/ outside of Bochum is open again. My favourite big relaxation sauna resort, full of naked regular German women relaxing but no fucking. Man what I would give for a day in there now.

Of course a day in an FKK brothel would be much better..

I have always wanted to go to these sauna resorts in Germany but never did. I would decide to go to one on a particular day but end up going to an FKK instead. Has any ISG member banged a woman from these saunas?

[Mursenary]

Please don't selectively quote me! I never said only vitamin c, I said: "hydroxychloroquine + vitamin c, d+ zinc. ".

Hydroxychloroquine is the main the medicine, but has to be used in combination with Vitamin see, Vitamin the and Zinc, and this combination seems to work quite well for a lot of CV19 patients, but unfortunately many people refuse to acknowledge this because it has become politicized because Trump endorced it.

One person who has been on top of CV19 since the middle of January (when most of the world was still asleep and never heard of Wuhan) is Dr Chris Martenson has a PhD in Pathology, and has been pushing for keeping an open mind, including Hydroxycloroquine, since day one: https://youtu.be/dLSYRqcg0wo.

Funny, we stopped treating people with hydroxychloroquine in our hospitals back in May. Fact is, that drug has never been shown to be effective in vivo. Benefits have on been seen in laboratory in-vitro experiments. Drugs used, remdesivir, tocilizumab, decadron, and convalescent plasma are being used in combination with anti-coagulation medication, and obviously respiratory support.

[McAdonis]

I think you and I have fundamentally 180 deg views. I am a lot more positive on US And it's future, while you are clearly negative on US. Not sure if you are negative on US or not because you ask questions more than you provide your own views, perhaps in an attempt to stir up discussion or don't want to reveal your real thinking, or perhaps due to other reasons.

I would probably characterise myself as critical or fault-finding, rather than negative. I admit I focus more on negative things, but I see them as opportunities to improve. I am not overly convinced that GDP per capita is the end all, be all measure of the current economic welfare of the citizenry.

Compared to you, I seem to emphasize the social tensions and perceived inequalities more. The pandemic and social media shed brought these issues center stage, and extremist media on both sides probably exacerbated the divide. At some point, the inequality issue needs to be addressed. I am not saying running a country is like running a company, but if too many employees feel "left behind" or that they have "no skin in the game", they either disengage or actively sabotage. If my company is paying the highest average salary, is that the best metric to use? When employees start to feel upward mobility is not possible because the system is stacked against them, they give up. Perhaps, it is a matter of perception. By most metrics, a young rural White American or urban Black American is "richer" than your average Chinese migrant worker in Shanghai, but the latter is imbued with a sense of optimism for the future, if not for his own economic prospects, but for that of his children. Because USA has been the richest nation on earth for the past 75 years, does that create a sense of entitlement? Have working class Americans been spoiled? IDK. Are these anti-American beliefs?

Here is some "negativity" on China: the average Chinese is still poor by OECD standards, but what they have witnessed is 40 years of economic progress at breakneck speed. For that reason, your average millennial Chinese is politically apathetic. At some point, economic progress will stall, and I predict China would enter a period of strife once that happens, which if not managed correctly could lead to its downfall.

I do not deny USA's strengths. Trillion dollar companies, innovation, military, reserve currency, most talented immigrants, best universities. But historically all empires have fallen, so a country should not adopt a "back-to-back World champions" mindset, because it breeds complacency. There is always room for improvement. A healthy fear of China is good for the USA. I get the impression that many Americans believe China is only capable of stealing technology. That might be an outdated belief in 2020. To me, it would be better to overestimate the technical prowess of China, rather than underestimate it, because it would create a "Sputnik" moment.

There is a lagging effect between the decisions made today and the outcomes of the future. Case in point: the Space Race galvanised American policy makers to invest and prioritise STEM as early as 1955. This surplus of scientific talent helped USA develop the precursor to the Internet in the 1960's. So decisions made in 1955 helped create Silicon Valley, which helps to keep GDP per capita high even in 2020. If China wins the AI race in 2025, it is conceivable they would hit highest GDP per capita shortly after, and maybe even leverage that early technological lead to maintain the highest GDP per capita for 50 years beyond that, while being effectively resting on its laurels.

TBH, I was already bearish on EU's economic future, but primarily just based on their demographics problem. You gave me some additional points to ponder. Returning to what you said about the last 15 years, what metrics do you use when you say the USA lead over Germany has grown?

[TeaInTheSun]

The key is what you wrote above, which is the state of their balance sheets. We can all guess their cash flows, but what was their balance sheet going into March? Also, who are the owners? I hear speculation on this site many times that this club or that club is owned by bikers / mafia / other sketchy players / and if so, the question is how did they finance the club, what was the purpose of the club: strictly to make money or was it to launder money, etc?

The reality is that most of us are not privy to the financial statements of any of these clubs, so we are just guessing.

If the club has a good brand name, even if the owners become bankrupt, it may be kept alive by new owners after ownership and capital restructuring.

If the club's attendance was so so and did not have any compelling brand name, then it would be tougher. In such a scenario, not many new owners will step forward in case of bankruptcy by prior owners.

A very important variable is how fast and how strong will business come back? In the US, restaurants and other establishments are finding out that even when they open, customers are coming back only half heartedly. I guess the virus is being handled better in EU and seems your situation is better. Perhaps locals will go back. But what about the sex tourists from US / Asia? What about business men (that dirty word again, Sirioja!) who travel to DE for some business and pop in to Oase for a quick fuck? Would international travel come back at the same rate? If not, which clubs are more exposed to that particular segment and who will lose out more / less? I don't believe we have enough info to know the answers to all these questions.

September and October are key months. Not only because the 4 or 5 vaccines that are in phase 3, will give us reliable results or not. We will also see if we could be talking about a second wave and if it is more aggressive than the first one or if the virus tends to be weaker, or if the virus does not have as many "healthy" bodies to stay. Maybe also in those months we will know for how long those who got covid during first wave will have immunity. We'll see some answers. I hope.