General Reports

[Rodwint2]

The original source of the information was written in Thai and read by my friends Thai wife. About 15 hours ago she reported that the Rayong situation has put a hold on everything, perhaps another 6 months.

The entire situation is fluid. I worry that even the introduction of a vaccine will be insufficient to stop this virus. Suppose that the vaccine is 75% effective and 80% of the population gets the vaccine. If I did the math right, that means only 60% of the population will be immune to COVID. I don't know if that will be good enough to return life back to "normal". I suppose it depends on the lifestyles of those who are not immune.

The vaccine will not be distributed to the general population in the beginning. The first priority will be the elderly, most likely those who are older than 60 years. This is the most vulnerable age group. The second priority will likely be those with immune systems that have been compromised by some kind of disease or affliction. Once all those have been immunized, then the general population will begin to receive it. As soon as folks can flash their vaccination reports at the airlines, cruise ships and hotels, the tourism industries in every country will be celebrating.

The real problem with this pandemic is not the disease killing people, it is the damage it has done to the economic (and political) environments around the world. People who are without jobs are very unlikely to be planning expensive vacations in exotic locales. The world will be in a deep recession for a few years and many economic, political and social changes will be happening around the world. Hang on folks, it is going to be wild ride for the next few years!

[MonkeyPaw]

There is no way to guess something that the authorities have not even guessed at yet. All I can tell you is that I will be paying my rent up for the next year when I leave here on the 31st.

You aren't staying after the 31st? Will I be the last man standing? We need to hit up WS together one last item before you leave. I've been hanging with the Dukester and Hakeem the Dream.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand...-after-july-31

[HorseTrader]

HT,

I don't know where your friend is getting this information but it is contrary to everything that is being reported in English language Thai media.

The original source of the information was written in Thai and read by my friends Thai wife. About 15 hours ago she reported that the Rayong situation has put a hold on everything, perhaps another 6 months.

The entire situation is fluid. I worry that even the introduction of a vaccine will be insufficient to stop this virus. Suppose that the vaccine is 75% effective and 80% of the population gets the vaccine. If I did the math right, that means only 60% of the population will be immune to COVID. I don't know if that will be good enough to return life back to "normal". I suppose it depends on the lifestyles of those who are not immune.

[GettingFedUp]

Thailand was upset that UK didn't include Thailand in the countries who can visit.

BB,

The UK has two lists. The first is countries to which the blanket advice against all non-essential foreign travel does not apply and Thailand is included on this. The second is a list of countries from which arrivals into the UK do not have to self isolate for 14 days on arrival. It is this list that Thailand is not on.

There are two schools of thought for the latter omission. One (to which I subscribe) is that the UK required reciprocity (I. E. No quarantine for UK visitors on arrival in Thailand) and that was never going to happen. The other is that UK does not trust the Thai numbers but if that were the case why would they be no non-essential travel "advice" be lifted? I put the word advice in quotes because its existence invalidates most medical and travel insurances, making it far stronger than just advice.

I was half expecting a lot of flak for suggesting autumn 2021 - thanks for drawing the fire with your guess!

[Banana Boi]

Anyone have an educated guess on what the rules will be on returning? Is it reasonable to plan on returning early 2021? Will there be different rules?

I just asking for best guess.

AFTER everyone else! You have to ask yourself if USA had very few cases would you allow people in from a country that has 10's of thousands of new cases daily?

Thailand nuked their thoughts on allowing China in because of an outbreak of 7 new cases per day in China. Not sure USA will ever get to 7 cases per day. Freedom of rights mindset.

Best guess? 2022. Keep in mind USA is not a country that allows Thais to easily visit so USA will not get any breaks here. Thailand was upset that UK didn't include Thailand in the countries who can visit. There will be passive retribution for that. It's the Thai way.

I got a Line message today. One of my Rayong Thai bar girls is p1 ssed that a guy from Egypt got in and brought COVID with him to Rayong.

[GettingFedUp]

A friend of mine said you can return next month. If that is true you should expect to be subject to the process published a few days ago in Pattaya News: getting a visa from a Thai embassy, pre travel COVID free certification, and a 14 day quarantine in Thailand where you need to pass COVID tests on days 3 and 11.

HT,

I don't know where your friend is getting this information but it is contrary to everything that is being reported in English language Thai media. There had been the usual hot air chatter from politicians and the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand about "travel bubbles", primarily with China, South Korea and Japan, with a potential start date of September. Just about every policy decision here is preceded by this chatter which is frequently contradictory and often does not reflect the eventual outcome. I guess they use the coverage as some sort of focus group to gauge reaction.

However, the Rayong incident (https://thepattayanews.com/2020/07/1...malls-emerges/) has further hardened attitudes of both those in power and the general population to reopening borders to anything more than medical tourism and investors.

As to the OP's request for "best guess" - for no-quarantine open to all tourism high season (fall) 2021 unless something happens quick on the treatment and / or vaccine front. I very much doubt early 2021 will be possible for regular tourists from most countries as things stand.

[Beijing4987]

A friend of mine said you can return next month. If that is true you should expect to be subject to the process published a few days ago in Pattaya News: getting a visa from a Thai embassy, pre travel COVID free certification, and a 14 day quarantine in Thailand where you need to pass COVID tests on days 3 and 11.

The real question for me is when will each of our home countries be healthy enough so the Thai government relaxes the rules enough so we want to go to Thailand.

Depends on whether Ted Cruz keeps his mask on.

[HorseTrader]

Anyone have an educated guess on what the rules will be on returning? Is it reasonable to plan on returning early 2021? Will there be different rules?

I just asking for best guess.

Thanks.

A friend of mine said you can return next month. If that is true you should expect to be subject to the process published a few days ago in Pattaya News: getting a visa from a Thai embassy, pre travel COVID free certification, and a 14 day quarantine in Thailand where you need to pass COVID tests on days 3 and 11.

The real question for me is when will each of our home countries be healthy enough so the Thai government relaxes the rules enough so we want to go to Thailand.

[Mr Enternational]

Anyone have an educated guess on what the rules will be on returning? Is it reasonable to plan on returning early 2021? Will there be different rules?

I just asking for best guess.

There is no way to guess something that the authorities have not even guessed at yet. All I can tell you is that I will be paying my rent up for the next year when I leave here on the 31st.

[Horatio]

Anyone have an educated guess on what the rules will be on returning? Is it reasonable to plan on returning early 2021? Will there be different rules?

I just asking for best guess.

Thanks.

[Banana Boi]

Is it possible that even ISG reporters may not be telling the truth?

There are at least 10 to 20 handles on the Thailand threads alone that are the SAME GUY from France! He even replies to his own posts! No need to look any further than just below this post.

[Turgid]

There's no news yet. I am hoping for August 31 when the original plan was for social distancing to end but now large events such as fairs are now prohibited until November.

Clubs in Austria and Switzerland are open with tons of beautiful European babes.

[Downandup]

Do you think FKK clubs will be opening up soon?

There's no news yet. I am hoping for August 31 when the original plan was for social distancing to end but now large events such as fairs are now prohibited until November.

[Mr Enternational]

As for a Pattaya or Sukhumvit hotel isn't it much easier to just walk around and find a place when you are in town. If you're a visiting expat it's not like you'll have heavy luggage with you.

Yesterday a buddy was saying he went to Bangkok last week. He went to his usual dingy hotel in Nana was 700. There was a brand new hotel across the street so he went to see how much. 500. He went back to the old one but they did not want to give a discount so he stayed at the new one. As has been said many times before, just book a room for 1 night if anything then look for a better place at a better price once you arrive.

[DanCee]

9 year old girl, comes from wealth, parents are prominent diplomats, tested negative before her flight for COVID-19, tested positive after landing in Thailand for COVID-19, and is now in the hospital with lung inflammation and pneumonia. So what does this tell you about all the rumors and news and crap you hear about this pandemic?

It's the end of the world and only God can save us from all this chaos.

Has Monkey Paw seen the light or finally flipped over the edge?

But, it is even harder now in uncertain times to assimilate the real from the hype and spin when every one of the information providers has their own agenda.

Is it possible that even ISG reporters may not be telling the truth?