General Info

[Spidy]

Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population - more than 200 million people - would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions.

Thanks G90, "Herd Immunity" info is much appreciated.

[George90]

3.8% is a nummer based on that there are no hidden cases. Not especially likely.

"The threshold could be as low as 43-60% maybe you are the one who "need to read about epidemiology and learn exactly what herd immunity is".

https://www.google.com/amp/s/medical...-threshold.amp

Again, I apologize for continuing on this topic. There is still some relevancy for us. I decided to take my own advice and read more about herd immunity. I am pasting the following from the Mayo Clinic website.

Herd immunity and COVID-19 (coronavirus): What you need to know.

Why is herd immunity important?

Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected not just those who are immune.

Often, a percentage of the population must be capable of getting a disease in order for it to spread. This is called a threshold proportion. If the proportion of the population that is immune to the disease is greater than this threshold, the spread of the disease will decline. This is known as the herd immunity threshold.

What percentage of a community needs to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity? It varies from disease to disease. The more contagious a disease is, the greater the proportion of the population that needs to be immune to the disease to stop its spread. For example, the measles is a highly contagious illness. It's estimated that 94% of the population must be immune to interrupt the chain of transmission.

How is herd immunity achieved?

There are two paths to herd immunity for COVID-19 vaccines and infection.

Natural infection.

However, there are some major problems with relying on community infection to create herd immunity to the virus that causes COVID-19. First, it isn't yet clear if infection with the COVID-19 virus makes a person immune to future infection.

Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population - more than 200 million people - would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions.

[George90]

Some guys needs to get laid -- Bad!

Yes, ET. And I guess I am one of those guys who badly needs to get laid! Alas! My destination of choice is Brazil, and things are not looking good there right now or in the near future.

[Exec Talent]

Some guys needs to get laid -- Bad!

[Member #4698]

It is correct that the number of confirmed cases of infection is under-estimated. You failed to realize that the under-estimation of COVID cases necessarily means that the number of COVID deaths is likewise under-estimated. People have died, often at home, from COVID-19 but without the health authorities testing for the virus and therefore counting the death as caused by COVID-19. <snip> Both the numerator and denominator of the death rate calculation are under-estimated.

I disagree. In countries like the USA, Western Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore the number of deaths due to the Corona is very accurate and the number of unreported deaths due to Corona is statistically zero. In fact, in the USA there is some evidence to indicate that the recent number of deaths attributed to Corona in the last 30 days is over stated.

That said I would not be surprised if the number of deaths directly caused by Corona in countries like Brazil, Thailand, the Philippines are under reported for the exact reason you give. But then so is the far larger total number of positive cases. Furthermore, in the USA and similar countries. when someone dies. the family can't just bury the body or throw it down the incinerator. The health authorities are called in and a recorded cause of death is made.

So, once again it is the denominator ie the total number of cases that is key to understanding this pandemic. Due to the asymptomatic nature of this disease for millions and millions of people under the age of 50, who go unreported in the stats and don't even know they contracted the disease, the death rate you quote is in gross error.

[George90]

For those who support the notion of herd immunity, agree with claims of coronavirus not being as serious as the media, CDC, WHO and others imply, and believe in the credo of "Survival of the fittest. ", at least use stronger logic and reason in your arguments.

The 3. 8% death rate you quote is not an accurate reading of the current situation and has been shown to be flawed and misleading. "In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated in May that the coronavirus kills about 0.26% of the people it infects, about 1 in 400 people. New estimates from Sweden suggest that only 1 in 10,000 people under 50 will die from the virus, compared to 1 in 14 of people over 80 and 1 in 6 of those over 90.

The first sentence is correct. But I never claimed the estimated death rate computed was an accurate reading of the current situation. I claimed it was an average death rate for the entire US over the entire time of the pandemic. It is not age-adjusted. It is not race / ethnicity specific. It is not for March and April versus for May and June. There is indeed huge variation in the COVID-19 death rate across geography and socio-economic demographics.

I gave that estimate to challenge herd immunity supporters to satisfactorily explain (using observed data) how to arrive at a death rate of 0.1% starting from an observed death rate of 3.8%. I await that explanation.

Estimates for the coronavirus lethality have fallen so sharply because calculating the so-called infection fatality rate requires scientists and physicians to know both the total number of deaths and the total number of people infected."

Thus the actual death rate in the USA is estimated now to be between 0.1 % and 0.5% with the great amount of uncertainty still in these numbers due to the fact that no one knows the exact total number of Americans infected and recovered from the disease while we pretty much do know the number of fatalities.

So get the total number of deaths from the CDC, get the total number of infected people from the CDC, and calculate the death rate. Show that it is between 0.1% and 0.5%, with your estimate of the uncertainty!.

So "while the CDC reports 2. 34 million Americans have been infected with the coronavirus, the actual number of infected and recovered people may be closer to 50 million. CDC Director Robert Redfield told journalists Thursday that the number of cases may be 10 times higher than the earlier 2. 34 million. Thus, the death rate, which would be 5. 2 % based on that 2. 34 million figure, is actually more like 1/20 as high or 0. 26 %. " It is unfortunate that politics has entered into the scientific study of this pandemic. We live in strange times.

You commit another logic error here. It is correct that the number of confirmed cases of infection is under-estimated. You failed to realize that the under-estimation of COVID cases necessarily means that the number of COVID deaths is likewise under-estimated. People have died, often at home, from COVID-19 but without the health authorities testing for the virus and therefore counting the death as caused by COVID-19.

Both the numerator and denominator of the death rate calculation are under-estimated. You stated that only the only the denominator is under-estimated leading to an inflated death rate. In fact, the death rate can also be over-estimated, or neither. It depends on the degree of under-estimated of the number of cases versus number of deaths.

I apologize for the long post and to those preferring different content. But I strongly feel (and I hope Jackson agrees) that this virus business is important to our hobby. We need to get the facts correct! We need to know and understand it well! We learned how to deal with HIV using condoms. But condoms won't stop the coronavirus. We can't get oral sex when she has a mask on. We need to be able to know and explain how she can't catch coronavirus from our dicks (I think). I hope everyone feels me on this.

[ShooBree]

The Johns Hopkins University (JHU) is collecting data on the virus cases and deaths. As of this evening (July 17,2020, 7:00 pm) JHU estimates the US has 3,638,002 confirmed of COVID-19 cases and 139,175 deaths confirmed to be from COVID-19. A death rate is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases. The average death rate since the beginning of the pandemic in the US is 139,175 / 3,638,002 = 3.8%.

You need to read about epidemiology and learn exactly what herd immunity is. Please cite a physician who believes that herd immunity can be achieved with less than half the population infected and protected with anti-bodies.

3.8% is a nummer based on that there are no hidden cases. Not especially likely.

"The threshold could be as low as 43-60% maybe you are the one who "need to read about epidemiology and learn exactly what herd immunity is".

https://www.google.com/amp/s/medical...-threshold.amp

[Member #4698]

The Johns Hopkins University (JHU) is collecting data on the virus cases and deaths. As of this evening (July 17,2020, 7:00 pm) JHU estimates the US has 3,638,002 confirmed of COVID-19 cases and 139,175 deaths confirmed to be from COVID-19. A death rate is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases. The average death rate since the beginning of the pandemic in the US is 139,175 / 3,638,002 = 3.8%.

The 3. 8% death rate you quote is not an accurate reading of the current situation and has been shown to be flawed and misleading. "In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated in May that the coronavirus kills about 0.26% of the people it infects, about 1 in 400 people. New estimates from Sweden suggest that only 1 in 10,000 people under 50 will die from the virus, compared to 1 in 14 of people over 80 and 1 in 6 of those over 90.

Estimates for the coronavirus lethality have fallen so sharply because calculating the so-called infection fatality rate requires scientists and physicians to know both the total number of deaths and the total number of people infected."

Thus the actual death rate in the USA is estimated now to be between 0.1 % and 0.5% with the great amount of uncertainty still in these numbers due to the fact that no one knows the exact total number of Americans infected and recovered from the disease while we pretty much do know the number of fatalities.

So "while the CDC reports 2. 34 million Americans have been infected with the coronavirus, the actual number of infected and recovered people may be closer to 50 million. CDC Director Robert Redfield told journalists Thursday that the number of cases may be 10 times higher than the earlier 2. 34 million. Thus, the death rate, which would be 5. 2 % based on that 2. 34 million figure, is actually more like 1/20 as high or 0. 26 %. " It is unfortunate that politics has entered into the scientific study of this pandemic. We live in strange times.

[George90]

Actually we don't know the true mortality rate nor the limit required to reach immunity. What we do know is that the death rate depends on age and health. I've seen some experts say that the death rate is closer to 0. 1 % and that the threshold to reach herd immunity could be as low as 40%. The key is to isolate vulnerable groups and let the virus spread among the healthy where the mortality rate is appreciated to be much, much lower than 1-2%.

We also know that those who die are in many cases close to death anyways. People dying in nursery homes is awful, but if you can't even take care of yourself, then maybe your time on earth is over. The healthy survives, that's the key to evolution.

The Johns Hopkins University (JHU) is collecting data on the virus cases and deaths. As of this evening (July 17,2020, 7:00 pm) JHU estimates the US has 3,638,002 confirmed of COVID-19 cases and 139,175 deaths confirmed to be from COVID-19. A death rate is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases. The average death rate since the beginning of the pandemic in the US is 139,175 / 3,638,002 = 3.8%.

You need to read about epidemiology and learn exactly what herd immunity is. Please cite a physician who believes that herd immunity can be achieved with less than half the population infected and protected with anti-bodies.

[ShooBree]

Except for what I heard a doctor explain yesterday.

To reach herd immunity, a population must have 70% to 80% of its members infected. The United States has a population of around 330 million people. Let's use the lower proportion of 70%, that yields 231 million infected Americans. COVID-19 has a death rate between 1% and 2%. That yields deaths in the range of 2.3 million to 4.6 million Americans. And that is the estimated cost in American lives of achieving herd immunity in the United States!

Actually we don't know the true mortality rate nor the limit required to reach immunity. What we do know is that the death rate depends on age and health. I've seen some experts say that the death rate is closer to 0. 1 % and that the threshold to reach herd immunity could be as low as 40%. The key is to isolate vulnerable groups and let the virus spread among the healthy where the mortality rate is appreciated to be much, much lower than 1-2%.

We also know that those who die are in many cases close to death anyways. People dying in nursery homes is awful, but if you can't even take care of yourself, then maybe your time on earth is over. The healthy survives, that's the key to evolution.

[ShooBree]

The difference is that Spidy has facts back up his argument and the other has "myth". I will note only that Bolsonaro is almost exclusively supported by the evangelicals and wealthy classes. Non evangelicals generally hate him and all he represents to the extent that on twitter about 70% of the profiles state "don't waste my time if you are for Bozo" or some variant there of.

First you mention "myth", then you proceed to use Twitter as a source to make sweeping statements. Anyways, you do understand the difference between correlation and causation? You ever heard about the rock which keeps tigers away? https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xSVqLHghLpw.

Maybe what you see on Twitter says more about Twitter than anything else. That Bolsonaro would have won the election thanks to being "almost exclusively supported by the evangelicals and wealthy classes" is a rather amusing thought. You spoke about "facts" earlier, I'm curious to see your "facts" regarding this. Did you find a poll on Twitter? What percentage of the Brazilian population belongs to the "wealthy classes"?

Either way I don't see the point of such a statement, Evangelicals and the wealthy have the same right to vote as anyone else. Bolsonaro was democratically elected with the support of the Brazilian people.

[George90]

I'm not a doctor so correct me if I'm wrong; but in human history there's never been a virus that disappeared thanks to people going into quarantine. Short of a vaccine, herd immunity or letting it burn out are our only realistic options. It's looking good in San Marino, no other country have recorded a higher death rate but few other countries can say that they haven't had a COVID-19 death since 23 d of May. I like what I'm seeing, herd immunity for the win.

Except for what I heard a doctor explain yesterday.

To reach herd immunity, a population must have 70% to 80% of its members infected. The United States has a population of around 330 million people. Let's use the lower proportion of 70%, that yields 231 million infected Americans. COVID-19 has a death rate between 1% and 2%. That yields deaths in the range of 2.3 million to 4.6 million Americans. And that is the estimated cost in American lives of achieving herd immunity in the United States!

[WyattEarp]

The difference is that Spidy has facts back up his argument and the other has "myth".

I'm really not interested in debating Bolsonaro. Your "facts" are based on the premise that shutting down the economy and mostly focusing on the virus is the correct action. And yes, several countries have had some success with this approach. I'm not sure that Brazil is exactly in the same position as Western European countries with more wealth and general access to healthcare. My very liberal social media contacts keep emphasizing that we should pay everyone to stay home until there is a vaccine. I think anyone with a basic understanding of the economy knows that argument is a fallacy especially for Brazil.

As an American, I can tell you that compliance and tracing even in States with extreme lockdown measures has been difficult. So there is a cultural aspect in addition to the political. I suspect like California and Texas any State that loosens up will see cases significantly increase.

In the near-term, I watch the deaths not just case counts to see who is getting the virus and how well it is being treated. If we have a vaccine by the end of the year, the lockdowns will look like really smart public policy. If a vaccine isn't widely available until later in 2021 or it has some effectiveness issues, the lockdowns will look very differently in retrospect.

[Spidy]

Each individual has their reasons why they decide to read what they read. Read it or don't read it, that is your choice. I encourage everyone if they wish to do, to provide a counterpoints to subject matters that are put forth on this forum, if they feel its warranted. This provides a balance of information w/r to the conversation. That is after all why we come to this community forum.

If this subject matter is not to your liking, move on, don't read it.

[Member #4732]

Nobody comes to ISG to read a long winded political diatribe. As I figured out early into this outbreak, the coronavirus would be the perfect canvass for anyone to project their political beliefs. Everything and anything is to blame with absolute certainty and abject contempt on someone or some system.

The difference is that Spidy has facts back up his argument and the other has "myth". I will note only that Bolsonaro is almost exclusively supported by the evangelicals and wealthy classes. Non evangelicals generally hate him and all he represents to the extent that on twitter about 70% of the profiles state "don't waste my time if you are for Bozo" or some variant there of.