General Info

[Rick Rock]

If anyone thinks the vaccine is THE panacea we are looking for its not when the vaccine is unleashed it will only be 50% effective (not 93%) which is about as good as the current Flu shot, we all know how well that works.

Not to mention that it won't work on obese people.

And that as many as half of people won't take it.

And that even if a vaccine was approved we only have the capability to actually make about 300,000,000 doses in a world of almost 9 billion people.

Start crunching those numbers and you might be able to understand why people in the travel industry are talking about maybe starting to approach something like normal in 2024.

[Rick Rock]

Except the fatality rate is currently running around 1%. The mathematics are not hard to do. Just take the deaths, divide by the confirmed cases and multiply by 100. However given the fatality rate is much higher with known morbidity factors it would make a lot more sense to manage those segments of the population than the population as a whole.

I think you're talking about case fatality rates.

The important number is infection fatality rates.

As researchers like us have learned more about the spread of the virus, we have discovered that the total number of infected people is far greater than the number of confirmed cases. For example in New York, it was more than 10 times the previously announced infection rate.

When deaths from COVID-19 are divided by the total number of cases – not just reported cases – you get a statistic called the infection fatality rate (IFR). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention currently has a best guess of 0. 26%% for the IFR.

And that's in the US where half of the population is obese, and more than half of the population has a "chronic disease or illness. ".

[Member #4794]

I'm keeping my mask on (and soon to come: the mandatory face shield).

Might as well stretch one of the 1000's of unused condoms that are expiring in our respective luggage over your head at this point. Mandatory face shields? Hazmat suits will be mandatory before long. This is when I'm glad I don't live in a shithole, I'm more than happy with UBER eats from my favorite steakhouse, air-conditioning, plumbing that I can flush toilet paper down and my piles on money in the bank until this runs its course.

If anyone thinks the vaccine is THE panacea we are looking for its not when the vaccine is unleashed it will only be 50% effective (not 93%) which is about as good as the current Flu shot, we all know how well that works.

China specifically has HAD a vaccine since April hence the low infection rate in China (Chinese people are already vaccinated against the China based strain) and they aren't sharing until official trials are completed to show efficacy with the mutations and of course to ensure profit.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/coro...not-great.html

https://www.voanews.com/science-heal...ency-use-april

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...avirus-vaccine

[WestCoast1]

Perhaps they can read recent and respected medical studies that show just 0. 001 of people who are infected require hospitalization.

Perhaps they are not elderly, diabetic, or suffering from heart disease or cancer, in which case their chances of serious illness are well under 1 percent.

Or maybe they just don't care and are willing to take the risk, like guys who have sex with prostitutes without using a condom.

Except the fatality rate is currently running around 1%. The mathematics are not hard to do. Just take the deaths, divide by the confirmed cases and multiply by 100. However given the fatality rate is much higher with known morbidity factors it would make a lot more sense to manage those segments of the population than the population as a whole.

Not making any claim that the virus / pandemic isn't dangerous, just some data in the pic. It would appear that the disease is deadly almost solely in the those who are both aged *and* have morbidity factors (diabetes, cardio-pulomonary problems, that admittedly co-relate with age).

And then there's this, from yesterday's NY Times: "A flurry of recent studies has revealed that a large proportion of the population 20% to 50% of people in some places might harbor immunity assassins called T cells that recognize the new coronavirus despite having never encountered it before. ". A previously undisclosed herd immunity (just my luck, I probably don't have assassin cells).

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-i...141224903.html

I'm keeping my mask on (and soon to come: the mandatory face shield).

[GDreams]

Well said Rick.

Except the fatality rate is currently running around 1%. The mathematics are not hard to do. Just take the deaths, divide by the confirmed cases and multiply by 100. However given the fatality rate is much higher with known morbidity factors it would make a lot more sense to manage those segments of the population than the population as a whole.

[Soapy Smith]

Russia claims to have one soon.

They'll have one about as soon as the British do, since they've been hacking into the British studies. Innovation takes many forms.

[Bushes]

RK wonders why people without fire protection are trying to run into an empty burning building or people who are already on fire. Well who knows. But there are several areas where people or leaders have made choices that will inadvertently lead to some interesting unintended insight into Covid19. The data guys are digging through all those numbers.

If someone wants to travel, I suspect they will find a way. Especially if they think they are or can be virus proof.

Several countries are advancing their own vaccine development because they suspect the new world order will lead to many western countries not sharing vaccines till their own population are vaccinated. So far the exceptions are surprisingly China and Russia.

Russia claims to have one soon. Like others, they are waiting for approval. So, if one cannot wait, they can sign up for one of the trials or be the first to get an approved vaccine in the jurisdiction that approved it.

Right now, restrictions on movement in PI has impacted mongering. Difficult to move around. Neighbors don't like a flow of strange people breaking quarantine in your home. They will report you.

Even in the US, I heard one person had a cop visit because of an out of state plate in the driveway. At least the neighbors did not try to self investigate with loaded guns.

[Muzungufotsy]

Perhaps they can read recent and respected medical studies that show just 0. 001 of people who are infected require hospitalization.

Perhaps they are not elderly, diabetic, or suffering from heart disease or cancer, in which case their chances of serious illness are well under 1 percent.

Or maybe they just don't care and are willing to take the risk, like guys who have sex with prostitutes without using a condom.

Well said Rick.

[Chocha Monger]

I am surprised why so many guys are so desperate to get back to the PH that has the highest incidence of Covid-19 in SE Asia and has an overwhelmed health system.

It seems like these guys have no regard whatsoever for their potential to get infected given that the availability of girls desperate for their monetary assistance are those who live in crowded and relatively slum-like areas. They are also assuming they can actually arrange for women to get to their accommodation and that they will be allowed access.

I guess it's a classic case of the little brain ruling the big brain. Those who are desperate must be those who cannot score in their own country and can only get laid if they target desperate pinays who are not too choosy.

I live here and I can see that everyone in my "hood is very antsy about catching the virus. Masks and now shields are compulsory and it is not easy to get around. No taxis buses or trains.

I am bemused why guys with ages that are in the high-risk group will want to challenge the odds of getting infected and if you're unlucky you face being hospitalized in quite difficult circumstances.

I suppose it's a case of "it won't happen to me. These things only happen to other people".

Well, you just described 99 percent of mongers. No one who looks like Idris Elba or Don Draper is dying to get back to one of the worst Wuhan virus hotspots in Southeast Asia for a root.

[Rick Rock]

I am surprised why so many guys are so desperate to get back to the PH that has the highest incidence of Covid-19 in SE Asia and has an overwhelmed health system.

It seems like these guys have no regard whatsoever for their potential to get infected given that the availability of girls desperate for their monetary assistance are those who live in crowded and relatively slum-like areas. They are also assuming they can actually arrange for women to get to their accommodation and that they will be allowed access.

I guess it's a classic case of the little brain ruling the big brain. Those who are desperate must be those who cannot score in their own country and can only get laid if they target desperate pinays who are not too choosy.

I live here and I can see that everyone in my "hood is very antsy about catching the virus. Masks and now shields are compulsory and it is not easy to get around. No taxis buses or trains.

I am bemused why guys with ages that are in the high-risk group will want to challenge the odds of getting infected and if you're unlucky you face being hospitalized in quite difficult circumstances.

I suppose it's a case of "it won't happen to me. These things only happen to other people".

Perhaps they can read recent and respected medical studies that show just 0. 001 of people who are infected require hospitalization.

Perhaps they are not elderly, diabetic, or suffering from heart disease or cancer, in which case their chances of serious illness are well under 1 percent.

Or maybe they just don't care and are willing to take the risk, like guys who have sex with prostitutes without using a condom.

[Red Kilt]

I thought it was going to blow over in May, I mean June, I mean July, I mean September. Are we all set for a sure 2021 reopening now? Based on what, may I inquire?

I am surprised why so many guys are so desperate to get back to the PH that has the highest incidence of Covid-19 in SE Asia and has an overwhelmed health system.

It seems like these guys have no regard whatsoever for their potential to get infected given that the availability of girls desperate for their monetary assistance are those who live in crowded and relatively slum-like areas. They are also assuming they can actually arrange for women to get to their accommodation and that they will be allowed access.

I guess it's a classic case of the little brain ruling the big brain. Those who are desperate must be those who cannot score in their own country and can only get laid if they target desperate pinays who are not too choosy.

I live here and I can see that everyone in my "hood is very antsy about catching the virus. Masks and now shields are compulsory and it is not easy to get around. No taxis buses or trains.

I am bemused why guys with ages that are in the high-risk group will want to challenge the odds of getting infected and if you're unlucky you face being hospitalized in quite difficult circumstances.

I suppose it's a case of "it won't happen to me. These things only happen to other people".

[WestCoast1]

I thought it was going to blow over in May, I mean June, I mean July, I mean September. Are we all set for a sure 2021 reopening now? Based on what, may I inquire?

I don't think there is any realistic time frame. Just guesses, based on 'hopes'. Until there is a solid vaccine in place, distributed among the population (not just the rich or willing), it will just be a series of blooms. Alternately, herd immunity takes over (another 'hope', and nothing more). This could be years in the making. Vaccine timelines are just guesses. Depressing, isn't it?

If you are in-country, stay put and get a regular girl (two), button down the hatches, and ride it out. If you are not in-country, reacquaint yourself with your palm (like when you were married) or spend more to make some magic happen. There are pro's and cons to both staying in-country and to going home.

[Rick Rock]

Here's to Group 2! I'll be applying for SRRV next year when all this bullshit blows over.

I thought it was going to blow over in May, I mean June, I mean July, I mean September. Are we all set for a sure 2021 reopening now? Based on what, may I inquire?

[D Cups]

You're not the only one. I can see 2021 mongers falling into 2 categories: those that stay behind due to lingering economic or health concerns and those that do make it across and make up for lost time.

Hopefully I'll be in Group 2. 😁.

Enjoy. G.

Here's to Group 2! I'll be applying for SRRV next year when all this bullshit blows over.

[Rick Rock]

You're not the only one. I can see 2021 mongers falling into 2 categories: those that stay behind due to lingering economic or health concerns and those that do make it across and make up for lost time.

Hopefully I'll be in Group 2. 😁.

Enjoy. G.

Or we'll all be in Group 3: prohibited from any kind of international travel by our wise and benevolent leaders.