General Info

[GeneHickman]

One of the views is delayed demand for USD in the developing markets. For now the dollars are not printed.

What do you mean that dollars are not printed? Care to explain?

To me if the federal reserve is buying up treasuries issues by the gov't which the gov't then spends, that's exactly what they are doing. I think the poster above's point is that he expects more of that with the incoming administration. If you look at the overall dollar index since Nov 4th its down about 3-4%. So thus far he is right and this may continue for a while till there is a new equilibrium.

[Questner]

I would be a first timer in Colombia. Vacation is most convenient around December 18th to January 3rd for me.

Sure it might not be the best time of year. But will it still be fun for a trip this length? I'm planning on booking flights anyway. I believe it would be "better than nothing" still. I am coming from the USA, so I'm also looking for a destination that is still open for tourists from here.

I was still planning on hitting the big cities if I went (mainly medellin but also few days in Cartagena and Bogota). Should I be going elsewhere (like Cali), even for my first time in Colombia?

I'm just trying to get a feel if it is worth going to Colombia at all. Remember I am starving since travel has been dead due to covid.

Any and all advice is much appreciated!

It's hard to comment on Colombia per se for you now, however don't go to Cali and Pacific region. Cartagena plus MDE or BOG is more than enough.

[Questner]

Whats the basis for a gradual strengthening of the dollar? I imagine the exact opposite as the government is probably going to be printing a lot of dollars to prop up / stimulate the economy.

One of the views is delayed demand for USD in the developing markets. For now the dollars are not printed.

[Kazeu]

What is your theory? There are numerous reasons why currencies fluctuate relative the USD; however, I don't think the success or failure of the vaccine is one of them. I think most forex traders are predicting a gradual strengthening of the dollar next year.

Whats the basis for a gradual strengthening of the dollar? I imagine the exact opposite as the government is probably going to be printing a lot of dollars to prop up / stimulate the economy.

[Elvis 2008]

What is your theory? There are numerous reasons why currencies fluctuate relative the USD; however, I don't think the success or failure of the vaccine is one of them. I think most forex traders are predicting a gradual strengthening of the dollar next year.

This is from the WSJ: The dollar hit its lowest levels against a basket of currencies in more than two years this week—and investors think it'll fall further.

The consensus view of a falling dollar is based on a big assumption: Covid-19 will be more or less conquered in the months ahead. Vaccines will allow economies around the world to return to normal within the next year, encouraging investors to step back from the relative safety of USA Assets and invest in stocks, bonds and currencies outside the USA.

End of quote.

The stronger dollar has made some international assets very attractive. I would also cynically point out that the media attempts to use Covid to destroy Trump are now almost over.

You had the vaccine announcement that just so happened to be after the election. Then you have this study:

When Briand looked at the 2020 data during that seasonal period, COVID-19-related deaths exceeded deaths from heart diseases. This was highly unusual since heart disease has always prevailed as the leading cause of deaths. However, when taking a closer look at the death numbers, she noted something strange. As Briand compared the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018, she noticed that instead of the expected drastic increase across all causes, there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease. Even more surprising, as seen in the graph below, this sudden decline in deaths is observed for all other causes.

In other words, the effect of COVID-19 on deaths in the USA Is considered problematic only when it increases the total number of deaths or the true death burden by a significant amount in addition to the expected deaths by other causes. Since the crude number of total deaths by all causes before and after COVID-19 has stayed the same, one can hardly say, in Briand's view, that COVID-19 deaths are concerning.

End of quotes.

This data only went from February 2020 to September 2020 and it could have easily been done prior to the election. Again I expect these numbers to be quoted ad nauseam once Trump gets out of office.

The inflation of Covid cases right before Biden gets in also seems to be timed such that when Biden does gets into office that we see a massive decrease.

Again, the libtards and Demorats will want to debate these points but money talks and BS walks. The famous quote that the market is a short term voting machine and long term it is weighing machine is truth. I would be stunned if the media fear porn does not lighten up once Biden gets into office.

The rise in the stock market, stronger COP are all saying investors are moving out of the dollar and into other places. The dollar will always go up when there is a crisis but eventually it comes down to fundamentals.

In that case, what is it going to take for investors long term to put money into Colombia once the voting machine is done and the weighing machine kicks in? Is Colombia an attractive to place to invest and produce goods and services? IMO the answer is hell no.

"In 2018, Colombia exported goods worth $41.8 billion around the world. Crude and coal are by far the largest export commodity in Colombia. They constitute about 57% of the total export value. Crude petroleum takes the larger share while coal and coke briquettes trail in second.

The oil markets will not be in balance for at least 10 years and more likely 20 years from now. Venezuela and Libya are producing next to nothing, and Iran's production has been halved. Official spare capacity is 10 million BPD and unofficial capacity is probably twice that.

The rest of Colombian exports (gold, flowers, coffee) cannot be increased to an extent to make a dent in the destruction of oil demand for at least 10 years, so the COP on a real basis will go nowhere but down once this viral bump is over.

What people are missing is that Colombia is not alone. The most prosperous third world nations for the most part have been driven by commodities and mostly oil. What they are going to have to do is raise interest rates to enough of an extent that investors are enticed into putting money into the economies of these nations. These higher interest rates will be devastating to the economy of these nations.

So even though we will see a short term bump, long term, the American monger will be in the pink for a long time. Colombia and a lot of other third world nations are going to be fucked for decades.

[JjBee62]

Please see my previous reply to this thread. I have many questions about Colombia around Christmas and new years.

When you say pretty much all of Latin America is dead during this time, would you include Tijuana? Just a question, because I am only familiar with Tijuana (for Latin America at least).

Tijuana around Christmas is obviously not as good as other times of the year, but it is still very much fun for someone that doesn't get to monger too often (few times a year).

I'm curious if you think Colombia is still worth it, or if you have any other destinations in mind for a Christmas vacation? Needs to allow tourists from the USA also haha!

Thanks!

Is Colombia still worth it? Probably not if you're a first time visitor, coming over Christmas, and trying to visit 3 or 4 cities in just over 2 weeks during a pandemic. Especially if you're only interest is to fuck as much as possible.

What preparations have you made? How's your Spanish? What's your budget? Are you interested in doing other things?

If you're experienced with a country, bouncing around the cities is easier. You've got your bearings in each place, you can hit the ground running and move on. But in an unknown city, where language might be a problem, some guys can do it, but most are going to lose a lot of time, just handling the basic logistics of getting from the airport, settling in and learning their way around.

There will still be women available. Poverty and prostitution are joined at the hip, and poverty doesn't take holidays off. There will be less options, especially for someone without connections, but they can be found.

Many mongering spots will be closed or have fewer girls working.

However, if you pick at most 2 cities for your vacation, start today to making connections and learning a little Spanish (if you don't already know it), it's worthwhile.

[JjBee62]

As I pointed out a week or so ago the peso exchange rate is Down to 3605 and sinking. I'm in Bogota now so I might as well grab a few million at the ATM today before it goes any lower. I truly believe it can sink as low as 3000 in 2021. Regardless of the vaccine.

Now is definitely the time to panic buy. I recommend liquidating everything and buying a combination of Colombian pesos and marijuana edibles.

Pre-pandemic, late last year the rate briefly flirted with the 3400 mark, after spending the previous 3 years bouncing above and below 3 k. At the beginning of the lockdowns it leapt up to 4 k and has been trickling back down ever since. It spent the previous 3 weeks near 3650, before the slight drop to just over 3600.

Without something more to go on than the doom and gloom attitude you've been expressing for the past 2 months, there's no reason to expect the rate to continue in its current direction for long.

[Combo]

As I pointed out a week or so ago the peso exchange rate is Down to 3605 and sinking. I'm in Bogota now so I might as well grab a few million at the ATM today before it goes any lower. I truly believe it can sink as low as 3000 in 2021. Regardless of the vaccine.

Of course it could go to 3000. Or it could go to 4000. As someone who experienced years where it was in the 1700-2000 range, both 3000 and 4000 are great, though obviously we would all prefer 4000.

[John Clayton]

As I pointed out a week or so ago the peso exchange rate is Down to 3605 and sinking. I'm in Bogota now so I might as well grab a few million at the ATM today before it goes any lower. I truly believe it can sink as low as 3000 in 2021. Regardless of the vaccine.

What is your theory?

[John Clayton]

As I pointed out a week or so ago the peso exchange rate is Down to 3605 and sinking. I'm in Bogota now so I might as well grab a few million at the ATM today before it goes any lower. I truly believe it can sink as low as 3000 in 2021. Regardless of the vaccine.

What is your theory? There are numerous reasons why currencies fluctuate relative the USD; however, I don't think the success or failure of the vaccine is one of them. I think most forex traders are predicting a gradual strengthening of the dollar next year.

[MongerHunger]

Hey everyone,

I'm about to book my trip for the first time, and after RTFF, I'm just worried my time in Medellin will be rough if I don't speak any Spanish. Is it hard finding a girl who's fluent in English? Or, will I just need to suck it up and hope it's not weird whipping out Google Translate non-stop?

You should at least attempt to learn some basic phrases. Duolingo is a free app.

[LatinaLover#1]

As I pointed out a week or so ago the peso exchange rate is Down to 3605 and sinking. I'm in Bogota now so I might as well grab a few million at the ATM today before it goes any lower. I truly believe it can sink as low as 3000 in 2021. Regardless of the vaccine.

[FatClown]

Almost everyone leaves for the playa if they can at that time. If you have a girl, go to Rio on NYE and wear white, it's a great time. However, historically it's not a good time for mongering. Before Christmas you'll find lots of hot mommies looking to earn some money to buy Christmas presents but after that, they mostly will stay home with family if they can't get away to a lake or beach. BUT. Who knows what this fucking Covid will do to alter the normal situation.

Please see my previous reply to this thread. I have many questions about Colombia around Christmas and new years.

When you say pretty much all of Latin America is dead during this time, would you include Tijuana? Just a question, because I am only familiar with Tijuana (for Latin America at least).

Tijuana around Christmas is obviously not as good as other times of the year, but it is still very much fun for someone that doesn't get to monger too often (few times a year).

I'm curious if you think Colombia is still worth it, or if you have any other destinations in mind for a Christmas vacation? Needs to allow tourists from the USA also haha!

Thanks!

[FatClown]

Cali Mocoa Popayan or Pasto.

But even then I really don't like that time of year here. NYE is especially boring.

I would be a first timer in Colombia. Vacation is most convenient around December 18th to January 3rd for me.

Sure it might not be the best time of year. But will it still be fun for a trip this length? I'm planning on booking flights anyway. I believe it would be "better than nothing" still. I am coming from the USA, so I'm also looking for a destination that is still open for tourists from here.

I was still planning on hitting the big cities if I went (mainly medellin but also few days in Cartagena and Bogota). Should I be going elsewhere (like Cali), even for my first time in Colombia?

I'm just trying to get a feel if it is worth going to Colombia at all. Remember I am starving since travel has been dead due to covid.

Any and all advice is much appreciated!

[Combo]

If you plan on multiple trips in a short period of time or multi-destination trip when you re-enter Colombia, you may consider planning on a contingency of reinstating the mandatory tests and a 14 days quarantine.

The government and the Ministry of Health clearly have different views on the issue, and the judiciary plays its role.

Here is an example of a recent lawsuit which may lead to it. We shall see how the government reacts.

https://noticias.caracoltv.com/colom...leguen-al-pais

The Noticias RCN report (linked on the Bogota thread) said the government has until next Tuesday to challenge the judge's order. Otherwise, it looks like a lot of upcoming trips will be canceled.