Rants and WTF are you talking about and Coronavirus!

[HammerTime96]

If now we believe WHO I am afraid we are going to face strong nightmares. The situation is just terrible in many countries in Europe, we all know that 50% of the dead are obese and the most of the other 50% have very limited life expectancy (less than 1 year), I can also go more in details about ethnicity, social class. But all this is just unacceptable for a waste majority of people, milked with twitter, Facebook, CNN.

Yes, and the alternative would have been much easier: allow young and healthy people to build herd immunity (could have been achieved by summer last year, because a virus will quickly 'burn itself out' if it can not find anymore hosts), whilst temporarily isolating the elderly and obese people at risk.

This is what a lot of scientists were advocating, but those scientists have all been censored in the MSM, and on YuTube, Twatter and Shitbook and we could have been fucking hotties in Sharks today with only 50 Euros entry fee before 14:00.

[HammerTime96]

Disheartening, as it didn't have to be that way. I incorrectly expected cases in continental Europe to somewhat follow the UK path, but the problems with vaccine rollout is entirely disappointing while unnecessarily prolonging the restrictions.

That's because you sit in your ER in Southern US playing George Clooney, and you're clueless about how Europe 'works' and clueless about how incompetent Germany and Merkel really are.

As I've frequently said, the EU couldn't organise a binge-drinking party in a brewery, and the EU is a larger copy of Germany, completely dominated by Germany. Smaller, smarte solutions are better, but the EU treats every problem with the same 'efficiency' as the communist USSR, hence the nickname EUSSR.

Anyway, as I predicted, the EU politicians fucked up everything: lockdowns, vaccine rollout, bankrupting the entire economy. Inevitably the 'virus' will mutate and the 'vaccine' will be useless: hence lockdowns forever.

I don't dispute your argument. - Yet I am sure that your numbers are also considered.

No, they do NOT consider 'my' numbers. Read German media, and you'll see that they ONLY focus on the Inzidenz Value, the way a bull focuses on a red flag.

If CV19 is truly going away, increasing tests should result in a lower daily positive rate. Germany is back at where it was in late-October: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/p...ountry=DEU~GBR.

No.

Imagine you have a fictional city of exactly 100 k inhabitants. Also imagine that you do 100% testing of al citizens, an extreme and unrealistic scenario, but this exaggeration is just to illustrate my point. Also assume that the PC test generates 1% false positive results. You automatically get an "Inzidenzwert" of 1000 per 100000 inhabitants!

To make things even more stupid, I'll give you an example from the Berlin suburb of Kleinmachnow: https://coronatest-tks.de.

Notice how it says: "Getestet werden nur gesunde, symptomfreie Personen."

Translation: they are only testing healthy people without symptoms! Hahahahaha! So a fixed Incident Value of 35 + testing hundreds of thousands of healthy people without any symptoms + an x% of false positives = a Incident Value permanently 35.

This is basic math, but most German 'scientists' advising Merkel, and the German media don't seem to get this. Or is this all done on purpose? I'm not a big fan of conspiracies, but such sheer level of stupidity + banning-blocking-censoring any scientist that disagrees with Merkel's absolutely lunatic policies can no longer be a coincidence.

[BigBuddy69]

Is that approach the right approach? Incidence thresholds based on 100 K tests rather than 100 K inhabitants? There is a selective bias for this approach, favoring people who are symptomatic enough to feel the need to take a test or seek medical care in the first place. Basing policy based on percent positive of all tests would naturally give less importance to a major source of transmission, asymptomatic carriers and mild cases, as they will likely never even take the test and their role in transmission to the vulnerable would go unaccounted.
Yes, testing more would produce higher incidence rates with a set population size; but as you state, it will be a more accurate value.
Where you stand on this matter is likely determined by your motivating interest. Are you interested in obtaining real incidence rates for the sake of public health policy or is your goal to get to a target incidence rate that is less reflective of reality but would make it easier for you to get to a brothel.

Both approaches are inaccurate. As you said, there is a selective bias, some of the people taking the test are more likely to be sick: either they have symptoms or they had someone sick in their close circle. But he has a point here: the way the data is communicated to the public is not really clear, and the more you test the more the incidence rate will increase. An increase in the incidence rate doesn't always mean that the virus is spreading faster, it can also mean that the test capacity increased, or that for one reason or another the share of people who are likely to be sick increased in the total number of people passing the test. Either way, the incidence rate communicated is inferior to the real incidence rate but will converge towards the real IR as the test capacity is increasing.

But if we do as he said (displaying the number of positive tests as a percentage of the total number of tests), it won't be so accurate either and probably above the real number for the same reason, the selective bias: the people taking the tests are more likely to be sick. Or you have to do a massive test campaign, encouraging everyone to get tested even if they feel good and offering convenient testing facilities (at work for example and the time you spend doing the tests is taken from your mandatory work time). Or random tests on large enough samples but I don't think it would be legal. Maybe in some authoritarian country?

[BigBuddy69]

Well obviously. He's an elite cyclist and much, much more fit than you.

Everyone with a functioning brain should understand that. We're talking about a man who trains something like 30 or 40 hours a week, who is able to ride a bike during three weeks at an average speed above 40 km / h for more than 3000 km, 30 000 m of cumulative climbing, who can take a part in a massive sprint at the end of some of the stages where the sprinters get close to 70 km / h.

He was 3 times world champion. He's not the kind of guy who puts a mountain bike cassette on some kind of hybrid cheap touring bike and realizes that it's easier to climb with that. Actually he was a mountain biker before, some people should go on the internet to look at some videos he made with one of his teammates riding a Cannondale.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwTy3N5T9uw

Maybe he'll get a a better idea of how technical and physical Peter Sagan is. But fantasy worlds hold as long as you avoid confronting them with reality.

[Sirioja]

Well obviously. He's an elite cyclist and much, much more fit than you.

For sure, he is faster when I don t need carbon nor electric gears, but more than 80 kgs, which don t help to climb steep, I think we was in grupetto on col de Loze at 5/6 km / h on steepest, and just for green suit and trying to win on Champs Elysees. Ask him if he enjoyed the spot, when for sure I will return to try to improve. As long I will be able, I will go because fun with adrenaline for me there, when I doubt for him. Look at climber racers and look at him, You should see a bit of difference for body and much more important than carbon versus my alloy I feel much better to try to keep my front wheel on the floor when around 20%, then can t sit.

[Ararat]

Well obviously. He's an elite cyclist and much, much more fit than you.

For sure Peter Sagan is not as fit as me

[Sirioja]

Disheartening, as it didn't have to be that way. I incorrectly expected cases in continental Europe to somewhat follow the UK path, but the problems with vaccine rollout is entirely disappointing while unnecessarily prolonging the restrictions.

The encouraging trend is that Czechia, the apparent epicenter of the recent surge, appears to have decreased their incidence rate. While frustrating for the people living in Germany, from the outside looking in, Germany's non-vaccine related initiatives still seems to be superior to most of the rest of continental Europe. For now, I'll keep faith that Germany will keep this surge from becoming a true wave. No way it becomes as bad as Christmas. Or can it?

High peak was planned by Western EU on March, and even use again AZ but with restrictions, only between 55 and 75, when I think was only tested for less than 65. When trouble making her falling on recent elections in 2 landers, Angela is even waiting for sputnik to be allowed by EU, when many Russians don't trust and when many in Germany and France don t want AZ. With elections for after Angela after Summer, I wonder who would risk to allow reopening of big brothel risky playfield. On 2021, Germany may not be so open, when they also had so many deaths, when was open for about 5 months for Samya, LR, Gold, on last year. But cleverness is ability to adapt and improve for me, so not only Germany, but I wish the best for our neighbour.

[PaulInZurich]

If now we believe WHO I am afraid we are going to face strong nightmares. The situation is just terrible in many countries in Europe, we all know that 50% of the dead are obese and the most of the other 50% have very limited life expectancy (less than 1 year), I can also go more in details about ethnicity, social class. But all this is just unacceptable for a waste majority of people, milked with twitter, Facebook, CNN.

Please tell this to my buddy, 42 years old, sub 12 h ironman finisher, multiple marathons, half marathons and 10 k runs, was training for the Great Divide race 4900 km, did several grand fondos, then every winter ski touring.

He is now doing Reha for 4 month and still has to stop to catch up his breath going up a flight of stairs. Sure he is not a typical case, but see one case like this with your own eyes and maybe you don't just think, who cares if somebody's grandma is dead, she should have gone easier on the cake.

[PaulInZurich]

If you ever tried climbing real steep, not 6/8%, but more than 13% and I let you imagine, have you ever seen more than 20%..

This might be news for you, there is this thing called mountain biking. I think in France they call it VTT. Plenty of steep climbs available with the added bonus of uneven terrain and reduced traction.

You just need the right gearing.

[PaulInZurich]

Disheartening, as it didn't have to be that way. I incorrectly expected cases in continental Europe to somewhat follow the UK path, but the problems with vaccine rollout is entirely disappointing while unnecessarily prolonging the restrictions.

UK (and US) has a much higher vaccination rate. EU so far can claim that they don't have enough doses, but I fear that they will fumble on large scale distribution when larger quantities will become available.

Once enough doses are available, they have to supply any Hausarzt, pharmacy, etc with vaccines.

[PaulInZurich]

Even vaccined, you can still get and give. Vaccined won't put anymore mask and will give to not vaccined who will also give...

Studies that start coming out claim that vaccines substantially reduce transmission.

Pfizer and Moderna.

https://www.businessinsider.com/vacc...21-2?r=US&IR=T

Astrazeneca.

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-02...month-interval

Earlier there was not enough data to make a claim about transmission rates, but this is being looked at. With the hundreds of millions of doses given, the data will come out.

[Samplerr]

While countries like UK, US, and Israel have seen drastic improvements since vaccine rollouts, some countries oppose the trend and bring up a major concern. Countries with higher than average vaccination rates like Chile and Serbia buck the trend and continue to see rising cases.

In Serbia apparently they're mostly using the Sinopharm vaccine from China. According to this article Sinopharm produces antibodies more slowly.

https://www.rferl.org/a/serbia-vacci.../31130079.html

[PaulInZurich]

I don't think anybody made any mutation, just from location where started, but UK spread a lot, making trip, making clusters in some ski resorts, when they knew about, and killing Western continental Europe where they travelled even knowing. When their mutant spread and kill 60% more, I wonder how many deaths from UK mutant, when we know what happened in Portugal, and now in Italy or France where more than 50% new cases are mutant, mostly UK, Germany and Spain preferring to protect versus UK, must be a reason when not helping business.

So you mean these were people who thought they can't possible get and transmit covid, who decide their fun is the most important thing, how careless and selfish of them?

Got it.

[PaulInZurich]

For sure Peter Sagan is not as fit as me and not same dietetics also, he should stop to smoke or drink, and I'm sure he doesn't like climbing like me. I proposed you already few times for Gran San Bernardino, you take your light carbon, I take my crappy child bicycle with roulettes little wheels and let s go just for fun to open and clean lungs breathing fresh air, ask your doctor if this is not efficient versus covid when I remember how many WGs I kissed and fucked since covid, I will drive from Aosta, letting car on top. If bald fat bullshiting French want we climb Galibier from Valloire, or with telegraphe before, let s go also, I look forward and for my Summer. I never saw any carbon climbing without a guy sweating on and Sagan doesn't like this, he does only for green suit and money, when I enjoy my passion. He is a puncher, not a climber, too heavy, not fit enough.

Let's see, on one side, Peter Sagan, 31 years, professional cyclist for 10+ years, 3 times World Champion, 7 times winner green Jersey, 12 Tour de France stages, 1 Giro stage, 4 Vuelta stages, winner at Flanders and Roubaix, 1 time European champion, countless half classics.

On the other side, random guy on the internet, 50+, claiming he is fitter than Sagan.

You claiming that you are more fit in any possible way is as believable as all your stories about "your" WGs how you make all of them cum and how they all want you.

Quod erat demonstrandum.

[Mursenary]

Vaccination efficacy Cause for concern:

While countries like UK, US, and Israel have seen drastic improvements since vaccine rollouts, some countries oppose the trend and bring up a major concern. Countries with higher than average vaccination rates like Chile and Serbia buck the trend and continue to see rising cases.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...ry=BHR~CHL~SRB