Thread: Stupid Shit in Kyiv
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03-19-22 06:32 #330
Posts: 1160Nuclear weapons changed everything. The game theory part is difficult enough, but the assumption of rational actors is itself irrational.
Nobody posting here knows what Putin's health is like. He might be going mad. And if he is, no amount of history will matter. He gets a nuclear holocaust if he wants one. We are not in control.
But if we do survive, I hope we will finally realize nukes have to be negotiated down and then eliminated. That will be harder than ever, now that the world has seen how third rate the Russian army is.
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03-19-22 02:23 #329
Posts: 516Historical parallels are always a bit tricky
Originally Posted by WyattEarp [View Original Post]
It's my sense that the author views appeasement as something to be avoided because it will only feed the beast (as with WW-II and Hitler). We don't know how Putin will respond, but we know he views the West as weak and therefore anything less than a strong response is likely to fail. Lots of room for debate, that's for sure, but that's the gist of the author's argument.
You're certainly correct about 1939 German forces vs Russian forces now. Although it seems 2022 Russia had a high estimate of their own capabilities, especially in comparison to their low estimate of Ukraine's. Putin obviously didn't have an accurate and objective assessment, or things would have been done differently. He's had a reality check now, but he clearly believed in Russia's overwhelming military superiority. Hitler made a similar miscalculation when he launched Operation Barbarossa.
About Hungary and Czechoslovakia, both were charter members of the Warsaw Pact. This was in the 1950's and 60's. So, in a Cold War context, Soviet control and suppression of their satellite states, while being publicly and diplomatically condemned, would also have been viewed as internal to the Soviet Bloc. USSR-controlled territory was theirs to command and the West wasn't going to change that.
That's a far cry from today's situation. The USSR has dissolved and former Soviet Bloc countries have mostly gone their own way. Putin is now pursuing an expansionary campaign in a way the Cold War Soviets were not. At least one facet of his scheme appears to be a partial reconstruction of the Soviet era sphere of control, except now using the rationale of uniting ethnic Russians in a New (and Greater) Russia. Both Hungary and the Czech Republic are now NATO members and I doubt either country wants to turn back the clock. I'm not sure mid-20th Century Cold War circumstances are directly analogous here. Again, those tricky historical parallels may not fully apply.
One further problem with the Ukraine situation is that (IMO) it's a mistake to think Putin won't use any victory, or concessions, as license to pursue future aggressive expansions. Why would he hesitate to declare "de-Nazification" campaigns in the Baltics or elsewhere? And Greater Russia surely can't be denied a land corridor to Kaliningrad, right?
That's why the Twitter author takes a strong stand against appeasement. And, after considering the pros and cons of the matter, I tend to agree. How that plays out in a practical sense remains to be seen. But I don't see any indications that Putin will voluntarily stop.
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03-19-22 00:37 #328
Posts: 516Czechoslovakia was one of the original Warsaw Pact countries
Originally Posted by Jojosun [View Original Post]
Fast forward to today: the USSR and Warsaw Pact are defunct, the Czech Republic is firmly ensconced in the bosom of the West AND is now a member of NATO. Therefore, in looking at the totality of historical events, I would argue that Czech happiness is a direct result of no longer being under the Soviet yoke, or being chained by the Warsaw Pact, and being able to freely run their own country.
Also, given what we're now seeing in Ukraine, I'm thinking that Czech happiness is even more enhanced by the security they feel under the NATO umbrella. I wonder if anyone has done a recent opinion poll (among Czechs) re favorable vs unfavorable sentiment toward NATO? I'd love to see the results.
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03-18-22 19:17 #327
Posts: 2844Happiest Countries in The World.
Originally Posted by Jojosun [View Original Post]
Now in March 2022 https://www.praguemorning.cz/world-happiness-report-.
2022/ text=Share%20 via%3 A,of%20 Happiness%20 on%20 March%2020.
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03-18-22 16:29 #326
Posts: 2041Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]
I read further on the author's views on challenging Russia to break Putin's continue cycle of scaling up conflict. I have a couple issues with his views. First, the author's comparison to Nazi Germany is fallacious. The Russian military in 2022 is not as effective as Nazi Germany was relative to 1939. Second, NATO has always pursued a policy of containment and avoiding direct conflict. The policy worked until the corrupt and oppressive Soviet system crumbled from its own ineffectiveness.
One might say the invasion of the Ukraine is a brazen move. We however had Soviet violent invasions of Hungary and Czechoslovakia. NATO stood by and let the Soviets bully and dominate their neighbors. Unfortunately, I don't think the United States and NATO can be the policemen of the world. It also appears China is not interested in working with the Western alliance in preserving global peace.
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03-18-22 03:48 #325
Posts: 1261Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]
https://www.ukrweekly.com/uwwp/putin...and-in-crimea/
https://khpg.org/en/1608809377
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03-18-22 01:42 #324
Posts: 516The unpredictability of sanctions, one way or the other
Originally Posted by PokerLover11 [View Original Post]
What matters is the totality of the sanctions regime and which side can hold out longer. Russia is getting some assistance from China, although the Chinese are walking a tightrope and I've read mixed reports of their helpfulness. A few other countries haven't completely cut off Russia but nobody (including China) wants to risk getting caught up in the West's anti-Russia sanctions campaign.
What I don't think gets enough attention is the extraordinary number of private companies that have abandoned Russia, or are refusing to do business with it. How long will Russian planes be able to fly domestically without support and maintenance from Boeing and Airbus? I recently read that one Russian aviation official was fired after he let it slip that China was refusing to supply aircraft parts. But the point is that there are literally hundreds and thousands of variables, with each sanction triggering attempts to evade. It's literally a "Death of a Thousand Cuts" strategy by each side.
Hard, if not impossible, to make a prediction, IMO. My gut feeling, and that's all it is, is that Russia is more isolated and therefore more vulnerable. But sanctions aren't the whole story because, the more pressure Putin feels, the more dangerous he could become.
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03-18-22 00:51 #323
Posts: 516Discussion re why Putin may have overestimated pro-Russia sentiment in Ukraine
https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkaza...03672019513345
A bit long, but worth a read, IMO. The author makes the point that Russia's mismanagement of areas it's controlled, such as Crimea and Donbass, has had a negative effect on pro-Russia attitudes.
Those who have lived in Ukraine can validate, or refute, from their personal knowledge. It's beyond my experience, but it does make for an interesting hypothesis as to why cities like Kharkiv are strongly resisting, rather than welcoming Russia.
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03-18-22 00:09 #322
Posts: 516My post was meant as a possible explanation, not a definitive conclusion
Originally Posted by Hestendk [View Original Post]
I'm very glad to hear about your positive experiences and I fervently hope and pray for your continued safety. You didn't mention your country of origin but, from your writing style (please correct me if I'm wrong) I'm guessing it's not the US or UK, which is one of the variable factors I discussed in my post. You also mentioned two other things: family and the fact that you're helping out by transporting supplies. I'm guessing that people with significant ties to Ukraine, like family connections, speaking the language, residing in the country, helping in the war effort (and similar), are going to be viewed differently. Again, I'm happy to hear about your positive experience. Long may it continue!
BTW, I completely agree with your assessment of Putin's non-progress. This is a war of attrition and the longer Ukraine holds out (with NATO's help) the more the pressure on Putin mounts. I have no crystal ball for the future, but what's clear thus far is that Russia's initial plan has failed and Russia has become a pariah state.
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03-17-22 23:48 #321
Posts: 1160So I went back to reread HulaHoop's supposed posts from Kyiv. Here are some things I noticed.
He first started posting (other than the single post a year ago) on 2/25. On that very first day he started to allege that Ukrainians hate foreigners.
He uses the Russian version "Kiev" rather than the Ukrainian version "Kyiv". (But that may just be an age thing I suppose.).
He emphasizes that he and his friends are all white more than once.
He reports Russian tanks on the streets of Kiev. Has that happened yet, let alone on 2/25?
In virtually every post he says the locals hate foreigners because their home countries have not come to the aid of Ukraine.
On 3/3 he says "I've never been in a place that's racist to white people before. ".
On 3/4 he shifts from warning other mongers to warning would be volunteers, with a dose of defeatism: "To any foreign volunteer: do not believe the Ukrainian propaganda! The military situation in Ukraine is dire, the media will have you think that Ukraine is winning. That is not the case whatsoever! Please be careful. ".
Is this beyond a reasonable doubt evidence? No. But I’ve noted that today HulaHoop has remained logged in for hours at a time. That, and all of the above, sounds more like a troll than a guy in his 60’s thinking that now was the time to go fishing in Ukraine. With a bunch of friends who agreed no less.
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03-17-22 22:19 #320
Posts: 1160Originally Posted by Sorbonne [View Original Post]
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03-17-22 22:04 #319
Posts: 558Originally Posted by YummyPL [View Original Post]
HulaHoops has also been saying the Ukrainians now hate foreigners. That is a grave concern, if we ever return.
Even during the pandemic I started feeling that people have not been as friendly as they were before the pandemic in this provincial city I was living in, which has been bombarded by now.
I did hear from the former freebee girl. She's still in Kyiv and is saying that now is not time to get divorced as she doesn't have money. So she has to stay in Ukraine, as her husband is not allowed to leave the country.
It may be even safe to say party is over for us in Ukraine. On the other hand, the condition may be set for us in Russia if it goes back to the Soviet time. Who knows?
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03-17-22 21:55 #318
Posts: 2041Originally Posted by Hestendk [View Original Post]
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03-17-22 21:53 #317
Posts: 1160HulaHoops is a fraud. The account was created with a single "what's up?" post a year ago and then nothing until a string of posts about being in Ukraine. Whether this was a sleeper account created by Russian paid trolls is a matter for speculation. It might just be an individual troll in need of attention.
But his attempt to vilify the people of Ukraine, people who are supposedly keeping him alive even as the Russians are trying to kill him, is highly suspect at best.
Let's not give this guy what he wants.
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03-17-22 21:53 #316
Posts: 2041Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]