Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[WyattEarp]

P.S. As to Russia becoming more dangerous with a collapse of the government, that also doesn't make a lot of sense. At such a time they would likely be more concerned with domestic affairs, as they were after the fall of the USSR.

That's the thing about uncertainty. It's uncertain.

When I wrote "a complete collapse of the Russian government." I was not thinking in terms of the Gorbachev to Yeltsin hand-off with Russia orderly breaking into more homogenous countries. I was thinking of a violent struggle for the leadership of a weakened, unstable nuclear state. I'm not really thinking the conventional Russian military is a threat to the West.

Since I don't have a crystal ball, I considered the possibility of a "subtle transition of power to less militaristic leadership."

Nothing personal, but can you really say with certainty you know how things would go down if the Russian government completely collapses? We don't even have the foggiest idea who might emerge as the leader. What if it's a crazy, Russian nationalist from the military no less?

As Xpartan brought up, the fall of empires have been a good think for humanity but they have also led to instability and violence in the transitory period. So be prepared for the worst.

[Jmsuttr]

No, it is mental masturbation.

And if the Russians nuke the bridges, airports, and roads, how are all those munitions going to get into Ukraine? And do freedom loving nations seize assets based on nationality with no due process? Maybe we should round up all Russian-Americans and put them in concentration camps like we did with the Japanese in the 40's. Was that freedom loving?

And I do not get the whole concept of victory. The "experts" said the Russian army was going to take all over all of Europe and only the Polish army stood in the way. Then Ukraine was going to win. Now a week later Russia is going to win. What does winning even mean? Did we "win" in Afghanistan or Iraq?

We have this shooter in Buffalo who killed people that were his enemy based on race, and you expect the mentally ill to understand that killing based on race is bad but killing on nationality is good? I think that is confusing to sane people. The whole concept that killing can equal victory makes little sense to me..

First of all, the map I posted that purports to be from Chinese media was intended as a dig at Pedro M, and anyone who thinks China gives a shit about Russia. It's purely reflective of someone's idea of what a disintegrated Russia might look like, and I took it as a tongue-in-cheek exercise, nothing more.

Second, you seem to take issue with my statement that:

"But only delusional fools think they can predict the future. I'm satisfied with accurately observing present realities and proposing reasonable extrapolations from that body of evidence.

And there is no reality-based scenario or extrapolation in which Russia wins. Meanwhile, Ukraine is being continually replenished and refreshed by the US, NATO, and a coalition of freedom-loving nations".

With which part do you have a problem? With my refusal to engage in predicting the future (and my criticism of those who do so engage)?

Or is it my statement that there is no reality-based scenario in which Russia wins?

Please specify, as I'm happy to defend both of those positions.

As for my statement about Ukraine being replenished, that's simply an observation of the current state of affairs. Could that change? Absolutely! Although I personally haven't seen any observers worried that Putin would use nukes specifically to stop replenishment. Most analyses I've read tend to think he'd only resort to nukes if he perceived an existential threat to Russia which, if Ukraine is only using weapons on its own territory, would seem to not cross those red lines.

But that's getting into the prediction business, isn't it? And that's where I've resisted going and criticized others for doing so. Putin has nukes, that's clearly true. And what's also true is that he can conjure up whatever excuse he wants, whenever he wants, to justify their use. Ukraine, and others, are betting that he's not a madman and they're refusing to allow him to use nuclear blackmail to get what he wants.

Is that the right course of action? Only time will tell. And that touches on your question about what constitutes a win. I would submit that only Russia and Ukraine can answer that. And also that any peace agreement can only happen when their two views get close enough to be within negotiating distance, which is nowhere close to happening.

As far as my statement that Russia has no winnable scenario, that's predicated on their false belief that Ukrainians would welcome them as liberators. With that notion debunked, what's left? Russia leaving Ukraine = defeat. Russia continuing to occupy all or part of Ukraine = continued sanctions + pariah status + impaired future prospects + similar items = more defeat. In other words, they're screwed whether they stay or go. That's not a prediction so much as it's an observation of how various end-game scenarios are likely to play out. If you see another possibility, by all means please share.

As for your comments about the Buffalo shooter and shale oil and Trump, it's my sense that you're venting more than making a specific, coherent argument.

Do you have a solution or prescription that you can articulate? Venting is understandable, as there are so many frustrating elements in the current situation, but what exactly do you think Russia and Ukraine should do?

[Xpartan]

A complete collapse of the Russian government could be a lot more volatile and dangerous than some Russian tanks. I believe that's what Kissinger fears. The optimal result is a subtle transition of power to less militaristic leadership. Yes, I know. That's optimistic.

Well, it's the 21st century and it ain't kind to empires. Even the second half of the 20th century wasn't kind to empires, and France and the UK can attest to that. The Russian empire is going to disintegrate just like many before it, and I believe it'll be better for everyone, this way, including the Russians.

The dissolution of the USSR was definitely a positive thing for Russia, Europe and the world. Not it's time to finish the job.

As to a "subtle transition of power", yes, it would be nice, but Russia has never been known for 'subtleties', LOL.

No, it is mental masturbation.

1. And if the Russians nuke the bridges, airports, and roads, how are all those munitions going to get into Ukraine?

2. Maybe we should round up all Russian-Americans and put them in concentration camps like we did with the Japanese in the 40's. Was that freedom loving?

Now, these are mental masturbations.

[Xpartan]

But for those, no matter how well-intentioned, who mistakenly project their own framework of rationality and diplomacy on the Kremlin, this letter (and similar disclosures) should begin the process of opening eyes and hammering home the truth that nothing less than a comprehensive Russian defeat will suffice.

Let's hope so, but I think MLRS (if and when they finally arrive) might help bring it home much faster.

[Jmsuttr]

You know nothing about it. Go beat up an old lady by the Damascus Gate. It is where your strength lies, there and killing Melkite journalists.

Here is Wikipedia on Iranian ethnicities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnicities_in_Iran.

Allegiances of Turkmen vary from place to place. Big component of your ISIS buddies.

I wonder how your mercenaries are getting on in East Ukraine. Coming up against a real army. I've just been reading US and German ones took a pounding. Let's hope others did too. Off you go now and beat up an old lady and rob her house.

P.S.: I skim your BS as you have nothing to say. Ditto your MB / Saudi links. Off you go now and beat up an old lady and rob her house.

Maybe Wikipedia can help you improve your repertoire of insults? Because they are lame beyond belief.

Here's a short lesson: In order for an insult to truly hit a nerve, it needs to have some basis in fact, even if only a little. For example, if you happened to be skinny as a rail, then it would be stupid to try to use something like "fat pig" as an insult. It simply lacks any believability which robs it of any efficacy as an insult. But using something like meth-addled anorexic could work, because those would have a connection to the reality of your appearance.

Obviously, on an anonymous fuckboard there's no way to ascertain physical attributes. But there certainly is ample opportunity to examine ideas, or lack thereof, how people express themselves, and to what degree logic and intelligence is reflected in their posts.

And that's why your attempt to insult by calling me racist falls completely flat. Because it's not connected to any reality, except as a figment of your warped imagination. And, if no one except you believes it, then it's as meaningless as if you declared that it's nighttime when everyone else can clearly see the sun shining.

OTOH, if I call you a brainless bile-duct whose only access to information comes (pun intended) when you suck Dickipedia, then that's an insult with some sticking power because it accurately reflects a number of the traits you've demonstrated.

See how that works? Any questions?

[Paulie97]

Joe is at it again, LOL.

PRES. BIDEN.

A SECOND -- DID ANYBODY THINK ON OUR CALL FOR SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA, IN ADDITION TO NATO? TO Australia? Japan. NORTH Korea, WHICH STAND UP AND SUPPORT THOSE SANCTIONS. THE WORLD IS MOVING SO RAPIDLY. I NEED NOT TELL YOU AVIATORS, WITHIN THE NEXT DECADE, YOU WILL BE ABLE TO CIRCUMVENT;.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c50169...ea-stood-putin

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...st-Russia.html

Looks like he said North Korea when he meant to say South Korea. Big deal, is hardly worth the cap key. Many of Trump's gaffes and word salads are legendary, such as "oranges of the investigation" Ha Ha. But even that isn't worth the cap key or steering us off topic in a Kyiv discussion, even though Biden had enough going on between his ears to mop the floor with Trump in two debates.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUPsNgmXR7M

[PedroMorales]

Ukrainian Army getting pounded, Israel upset
But, for anyone interested in the topic of Arab vs Persian animosity .

You know nothing about it. Go beat up an old lady by the Damascus Gate. It is where your strength lies, there and killing Melkite journalists.

Here is Wikipedia on Iranian ethnicities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnicities_in_Iran.

Allegiances of Turkmen vary from place to place. Big component of your ISIS buddies.

I wonder how your mercenaries are getting on in East Ukraine. Coming up against a real army. I've just been reading US and German ones took a pounding. Let's hope others did too. Off you go now and beat up an old lady and rob her house.

P.S.: I skim your BS as you have nothing to say. Ditto your MB / Saudi links. Off you go now and beat up an old lady and rob her house.

[Elvis 2008]

Quite a thought-provoking map, eh?

No, it is mental masturbation.

But only delusional fools think they can predict the future. I'm satisfied with accurately observing present realities and proposing reasonable extrapolations from that body of evidence.

And there is no reality-based scenario or extrapolation in which Russia wins. Meanwhile, Ukraine is being continually replenished and refreshed by the US, NATO, and a coalition of freedom-loving nations.

And if the Russians nuke the bridges, airports, and roads, how are all those munitions going to get into Ukraine? And do freedom loving nations seize assets based on nationality with no due process? Maybe we should round up all Russian-Americans and put them in concentration camps like we did with the Japanese in the 40's. Was that freedom loving?

And I do not get the whole concept of victory. The "experts" said the Russian army was going to take all over all of Europe and only the Polish army stood in the way. Then Ukraine was going to win. Now a week later Russia is going to win. What does winning even mean? Did we "win" in Afghanistan or Iraq?

We have this shooter in Buffalo who killed people that were his enemy based on race, and you expect the mentally ill to understand that killing based on race is bad but killing on nationality is good? I think that is confusing to sane people. The whole concept that killing can equal victory makes little sense to me.

There is a better way. To stay in power, dictators need money and if you look at the country with the worst civil rights in the world, only North Korea is one that is not a big time player with oil and natural gas. The war on terror was not won with bullets but by new oil drilling techniques, and that is how the war on dictators could be won as well.

Instead of the disgusting drilling for shale oil and gas, the Europeans went to solar and wind while bragging about climate change and then snuck in oil and gas from Russia. How did that work out? The only nation doing shale drilling in Europe with any scale is Poland.

Trump told the Europeans it was stupid for America to pay to defend Europe while Europe was buying oil and natural gas from Russia. That money to buy gas and oil was used to Russian munitions.

I do not get why we are spending $40 billon on arms for Ukraine versus LNG terminals in Europe and providing loans so Europe can develop their own shale resources. Why spend to destroy versus build? If Russia goes into a NATO nation, they are going to be nuked. Period. Why do we need to buy more bombs when we can blow up the world 20 X over?

I will not even be partisan here. Look at this chart. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/e_e...xr0_nus_cm.htm.

Now look at January 2012 during Obama's rule. There were 2,003 rigs going. Despite oil being higher now and nat gas being way higher, there are only 727 going. I do not care about Ukraine. With that rig count, "victory" against Russia and Putin is a pipe dream.

[Jmsuttr]

Being grounded and pounded in the East, as their wives are pounded elsewhere. EU crying for talks, as is that idiot Zelensky.

Von der Leyen saying to buy Russian oil to stop Russia selling it elsewhere. Now you know why you cannot be taken seriously.

Greece made a big mistake helping the USA steal that tanker of oil. 25% of tankers off the Iranian coast, that can easily be made an Iranian lake, fly the Greek flag.

Go back to your hamburgers and school shootings.

Did you also predict a French victory at Agincourt? Or a victory for Rommel at El Alamein? If you're looking for an idiot, try looking in the mirror, because only an idiot looks at a ripple and thinks he can predict the tide.

The supposedly formidable Russian army was forced into a humiliating retreat from Kyiv, which even retired Russian officers (see previously posted letter) acknowledge. They control much less territory than at the beginning of the invasion and are now desperately trying to control Severodonetsk for purely domestic political reasons. Putin needs something, anything, that he can frame as a "victory," so he's directed his army to focus on Luhansk Oblast. The problem is that political pressures are pushing that army to attack without proper preparation or support, and they're losing men and equipment every step (forward AND backward) of the way. You can read an independent assessment here:

https://www.understandingwar.org/

As anyone who isn't a prisoner of their own opinion-bubble can see, the actual state of the war is a grinding give and take. And one piece of information that's being reported today is that a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Kherson area is underway. So, even if one side is able to take a bit of ground today, that's no guarantee they can hold it tomorrow.

How things will turn out on the battlefield is still an open question, and anyone with a shred of intellectual integrity will admit that there are a vast number of variables, known and unknown, in play. But, as you've consistently demonstrated in this forum, you wouldn't recognize integrity, of any kind, if it walked up and (just like your fave Medellin trannies) bit you in the ass.

P.S. Thanks for mentioning Iran! It seems they recently had some problems at one of their "secret" drone bases, and reportedly it was an attack that was launched from within Iran itself. Isn't it interesting that they apparently lack control over their own territory? Maybe they can ask Greece for some help with that.

[Paulie97]

I don't think Putin will live to see the Russians scrape enough resources to do serious harm. Even if Russia is pushed out of Eastern Ukraine, I think they will continue to fuck with their weaker neighbors. Possibly they will fuck with weak countries as a way to save some face from the Ukraine debacle.

I believe inherently there are Munich 1938 recollections. Hitler's Germany was relatively stronger and Europe weaker in the late 1930's.

A complete collapse of the Russian government could be a lot more volatile and dangerous than some Russian tanks. I believe that's what Kissinger fears. The optimal result is a subtle transition of power to less militaristic leadership. Yes, I know. That's optimistic.

Kissinger's "fears" aren't helpful. Western fear has been a lot of the problem when it comes to a slowed response and reluctance to send offensive weapons. Russia has no integrity, and any ceasefire just gives them time to regroup and for the West to drop their guard, then they can go in again to annex all of Ukraine, which they feel they are entitled to. Much of the fear is unwarranted. If Russia resorts to tactical nukes they at best completely isolate themselves. On a larger scale it's suicide. There's no evidence that anyone there is suicidal. If you have anything on Putin's health besides rumor please post it. Much of it goes back many years.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-healt...kraine-1704211

P.S. As to Russia becoming more dangerous with a collapse of the government, that also doesn't make a lot of sense. At such a time they would likely be more concerned with domestic affairs, as they were after the fall of the USSR.

[PedroMorales]

Being grounded and pounded in the East, as their wives are pounded elsewhere. EU crying for talks, as is that idiot Zelensky.

Von der Leyen saying to buy Russian oil to stop Russia selling it elsewhere. Now you know why you cannot be taken seriously.

Greece made a big mistake helping the USA steal that tanker of oil. 25% of tankers off the Iranian coast, that can easily be made an Iranian lake, fly the Greek flag.

Go back to your hamburgers and school shootings.

[Jmsuttr]

Leaving the rank racism to one side, though Iran is the world's main Shia nation, many "Arabs", not least in Lebanon, are Shia. There are many Sunni in Iran though Bigot man here would not know that. Plus lots of Christians, Alawi, Druze, Yezidi and other minorities. I think we can all agree that the bigotry, racism and supremacism Mr Hasbara where displays is going to bit back in a big way.

Let's all salute Iran, who paid back American pirates in kind.

Let's all salute British mercenaries Shaun Pinner and Andrew Hill and Moroccan Ibrahim Saadoun, who face justice in liberated Ukraine. Russian military spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov said earlier that the best thing the foreign mercenaries could expect was a "long term in prison. " Two scumbags swinging at the end of ropes might send a clear message back to Blighty, no?

The post to which you replied had literally one sentence that tangentially mentioned Arab-Persian attitudes, and wasn't even the main point of the post. As usual, you try to make mountains out of molehills and end up looking stupid.

Had Arab-Persian relations been my main point, I would have posted relevant articles to support my assertions. I'm happy to do so now and, as always, people are invited to read, make up their own minds, and join the debate if they want. Of course, since this is a forum dedicated to issues pertaining to Kyiv and Ukraine, I don't know if anyone will want to follow you down that particular anti-American rabbit hole.

But, for anyone interested in the topic of Arab vs Persian animosity (which goes both ways), I would invite them to do a brief web search. It took me less than a minute to find several articles, one of which features an interview of an Iranian intellectual, explaining the hatred in both historical and cultural contexts.

https://english.alarabiya.net/articl...%2F09%2F170927

Also, since you mention minorities in Iran as though all is harmonious, here's an article detailing the Iranian regime's treatment of minority groups:

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1822151/middle-east

There are varying levels of evidence suitable for inclusion in an informed debate. Pure opinion, with zero substantiation, is so low that it's not even worthy of being classified as evidence. You continue to search for water in the Sahara of your own desiccated mind, looking for things to say, no matter how stupid. And you continue to twist and mischaracterize what others post. Not to worry, as I'll always be here to expose how empty of substance (albeit full to the brim with bile!) your pseudo-arguments are. Better luck next time!

P.S. Pointing out a true and verifiable fact, namely the existence of a current (and centuries old) hatred between Arabs and Persians, can only be portrayed as racist or bigoted by someone who either chooses to ignore the facts, or is unable to construct a substantive rebuttal. In other words, it's simply a variant of ad hominem employed by those who can't come up with anything better. A truly lame, despicable, and desperate tactic.

[Jojosun]

QUOTE=Jmsuttr.

And, in case you've forgotten, the Arabs hate the Persians.

QUOTE.

No Love Lost in Iran as Iran occupies their Land according to sources https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_s...m_in_Khuzestan.

"Since the 1920's, tensions have often resulted in violence and attempted separatism, including the insurgency in 1979, unrest in 2005, terrorist bombings in 2005–2006, protests in 2011, assassinations in 2017, and the 2018 Ahvaz military parade attack.

Iran officially denies any discrimination or the existence of conflict within the country. It has however drawn strong criticism from human rights organizations including accusations of ethnic discrimination and ethnic cleansing. '.

[Jojosun]

QUOTE=PedroMorales.

Let's all salute Iran.

Let's all.

QUOTE.

Saluting Iran when its Free from Mullahs Rule.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qfEJPjWFoEw

[WyattEarp]

From the interview.

"Today, Henry Kissinger said that Ukraine should find a compromise with Russia and cede some of its territory. What do you think of that? Is it time to negotiate a ceasefire?

'No way. You can't. You just can't make peace now. If you do, it will be seen as a Russian victory. Russia will spend a couple years scraping together some resources and then it will do this again. This won't teach them anything. Only a total and clear defeat that is obvious to everyone will teach them...........

I don't think Putin will live to see the Russians scrape enough resources to do serious harm. Even if Russia is pushed out of Eastern Ukraine, I think they will continue to fuck with their weaker neighbors. Possibly they will fuck with weak countries as a way to save some face from the Ukraine debacle.

I believe inherently there are Munich 1938 recollections. Hitler's Germany was relatively stronger and Europe weaker in the late 1930's.

A complete collapse of the Russian government could be a lot more volatile and dangerous than some Russian tanks. I believe that's what Kissinger fears. The optimal result is a subtle transition of power to less militaristic leadership. Yes, I know. That's optimistic.