Thread: Stupid Shit in Kyiv
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06-19-22 07:13 #891
Posts: 1956Originally Posted by WyattEarp [View Original Post]
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06-19-22 06:54 #890
Posts: 1056231 posts
Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]
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06-19-22 04:02 #889
Posts: 3230
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06-19-22 02:44 #888
Posts: 516Keep your eye on Kherson
The author of this thread makes a persuasive (IMO) case that, while Severodonetsk (Donbas) is getting most of the attention, the battle for the Kherson region in the South is more strategically important. It's a short and easy read, with some informative maps.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...202452995.html
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06-19-22 02:16 #887
Posts: 516You must have me confused with someone else. I've made no predictions.
Originally Posted by WyattEarp [View Original Post]
It seems to me that I'm the loudest voice in this forum shouting that predictions are a fool's errand, as this war is unique in many aspects and there are too many variables, known and unknown. In fact, that's the very criticism I level against your article, is it not?
My personal feelings aside, any optimism I've expressed is generally based on optimistic developments, such as arms commitments and other support measures for Ukraine, or the recent granting of EU candidate status. Any such developments that help Ukraine sustain their war effort are positive things, and I'm not shy about pointing them out.
If, however, support for Ukraine started to fade, or other developments with long-term negative implications occurred, I would discuss those honestly. To this point I would assert that the weight of the evidence leans in a positive direction for Ukraine. And, as I've also posted numerous times, I do my best to focus on the tides, rather than waves or ripples.
That's not to say I have any clue as to how things will turn out. If I discuss the possibility of a humiliating Russia defeat, I do so as only one of several scenarios. The reason that particular scenario is often discussed is primarily because Putin foolishly set the bar too high. If he had gone directly for the limited goal of Luhansk and Donetsk, that would have been more reasonably achievable. But, by going for Kyiv itself, and "denazifying" all of Ukraine, he's made a problem for himself (with his own people) if he can't deliver. That's why I've posited that there are no real-world winnable scenarios for Russia, because:
1. If Russia conquers all of Ukraine, it will be faced with the prospect of trying to subdue and hold a country that hates it deeply. Europe, the US, and most of rest of the world would likely continue the same, or increased, sanctions regime, which is a recipe for continued isolation and tension.
2. If Russia conquers some of Ukraine (Luhansk, Donetsk, Odessa, etc.), then it becomes a kind of subset of Scenario #1, with the exception that the part of Ukraine not conquered would be actively and strenuously resisting Russia.
3. Russia conquers no significant new territory in Ukraine. So, whether the boundaries are exactly the same as before Feb 24th, or substantially so, it's clear to the non-propagandized world that the invasion has failed. And, within Russia, the potential for dissatisfaction with Putin would rise significantly. This, for all intents and purposes would be the "humiliating defeat" scenario.
4. A continuation of the current war-of-attrition, with give and take on both sides. If that were to happen, neither side could claim victory and it would become (even more so than now) a battle of will and resources.
But please note that discussing these scenarios, and examining factors that might make them more (or less) likely, isn't the same as predicting which one will actually happen. What I care most about are the facts on the ground. And, depending on those facts, it may be possible to extrapolate trends that point in one direction or another. As with all things, however, tomorrow's set of facts can change. Which is why I value accurate and knowledgeable observers more than I do analysts and pundits.
P.S. If you have an outcome that isn't one of the four listed above, or a subset of them, I'd love to hear it.
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06-19-22 00:57 #886
Posts: 516Freedom for Russia Legion: Russians fighting against Putin.
Originally Posted by PedroMorales [View Original Post]
"I made compromises with myself for a long time. But on the 24 February (the day Russia launched its invasion), any talk of compromise became impossible," he said. "I could not be part of this crime".
"Artyom (not his real name), another member of the unit, said he joined "because it was the only chance to get rid of this regime" and had been engaged in opposition politics in Russia before leaving the country in 2020. He said he moved to Ukraine shortly before the war, sensing an imminent Russian attack. "I love my motherland," he said. "I wish it didn't have to come to this, but we have to end this system. I hope I can return home after the war".
These are Russians with a soul and conscience, noble Russians resisting the evil dictator. Each orc they kill helps to prevent another Bucha, another Irpin, another Mariupol massacre, another kidnapped child being sent off to Russia.
May their aim be true and their weapons swift to mete out justice to the criminal invaders.
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06-19-22 00:43 #885
Posts: 516Russia tried, and failed miserably.
Originally Posted by PedroMorales [View Original Post]
To add insult to injury, Zelensky is welcoming significant heads of state to Kyiv (France, Germany, Italy, UK, Poland, Romania, etc.) while the only people who visit Russia are Putin-puppets like Lukashenko, or fellow terrorists-in-arms Taliban mullahs.
And even the President of Kazakhstan, with Putin present, called out Russian propaganda and spit directly in the eye of the Kremlin. I'll make a separate post about that, but Putin must be seething at the blatant disrespect shown at his own conference.
But here's the real question: Who takes over when Putin's uncontrollable tremors, and other serious health conditions, can no longer be covered for? With the Russian military being stretched thin, will Lukashenko make a play? Isn't it interesting that Belarus has avoided putting their military at risk in Ukraine? Even a little bit of research will show that Lukashenko is a highly capable schemer, and that his clown act is only for show.
So, when Putin (naturally or otherwise) kicks the bucket, things could get very interesting.
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06-18-22 21:55 #884
Posts: 2041Originally Posted by Jojosun [View Original Post]
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06-18-22 17:50 #883
Posts: 2041Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]
I think many have painted a picture the war is an existential battle for the Ukraine that can be resolved with great satisfaction and achievement. It has also been said Putin himself could very well be in an existential fight over the Ukraine. That sounds like the recipe for a long, grinding war.
What's the best outcome Ukraine "wins small" and the war ends this year or they fight a five year conflict to achieve something possibly more or possibly not? It's not an easy question to answer in my opinion.
Having said that, yes it would be great if Putin felt his world closing in, walks into his office, shuts the door and ingests a cyanide pill.
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06-18-22 15:46 #882
Posts: 2843Originally Posted by PedroMorales [View Original Post]
The man from Odessa, Jabotinsky with his brand of Zionism, based on claiming all of the land including Jordan, is not really majority opinion in Israel. More support for it for reasons of their own, is to be found among White American Evangelicals.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_la...without_a_land#text=%22%20 A%20 land%20 without%20 a%20 people%20 for%20 a,historicity%20 and%20 significance%20 are%20 a%20 matter%20 of%20 contention.
Jewish Ukrainians who fled Putin's war in their thousands found homes in Germany. "Many Jewish Ukrainian refugees – no one know how many, but it is certainly thousands. Are choosing to come to Germany. Why? They are looking for quiet and Israel is seen as being dangerous. In addition, Germany has committed significant resources to help: https://m.jpost.com/opinion/article-706446.
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06-18-22 14:46 #881
Posts: 516Russian Generals: Drunk, incompetent, or dead.
Gerasimov's trip to the front lines was a disaster, Shoigu (who isn't a real General) is now a hollow figurehead, and the newest revelation is that Dvornikov is an incompetent drunk!
https://odessa-journal.com/bellingca...ral-dvornikov/
No wonder the Orc-Generals are dropping like fetid flies. The vaunted Russian military machine turns out to be held together with chewing gum and baling wire. Except that some corrupt General sold the wire, replaced it with twine, and then swapped the chewing gum for gooey piles of shit! No wonder the wheels are falling off. Way to go, Vlad!
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06-18-22 14:29 #880
Posts: 516My point is simply this
Originally Posted by WyattEarp [View Original Post]
I'm much more receptive to authors who focus on what's actually happening than I am to those who come up with some kind of construct about how, in their opinion, things could play out. When I read the latter kind of article, I usually spot some assumption they're making which, if things happen differently, substantially undercuts their thesis. And, at that point, I lose interest because they continue writing in a confident voice when they should (IMO) be writing with more humility and admitting how much they don't know, and which assumptions might not hold.
At this point, I'm pretty much done with so-called experts (see my post in the Kyiv main thread) because so many have been so profoundly wrong (and so few admit that fact). What I look for are accurate observations about what's happening right now, as I think such observations hold more promise for extrapolating towards the future. So, when I read an article that doesn't seem to fully embrace or understand what's happening on the battlefield at this very moment, I'm frankly not that interested. I'm happy to trade a pound of "experts" for an ounce of accurate observers.
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06-18-22 12:51 #879
Posts: 1056Capt. Grady Kurpasi
Of the USMC (America's equivalent of the Waffen SS) becomes the third American mercenary to be captured by Russian peace keepers in Ukraine. Capt. Kurpasi, from Wilmington, North Carolina, should know that the Geneva Convention does not apply to mercenaries. He is fair game.
No more killing Iraqi kids or Ukrainian Russian speakers for him https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/16/p...ine/index.html.
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06-18-22 10:39 #878
Posts: 1056When Russia Zaps Zelensky
And the Ukrainian Parliament, who will take over? Who will do the snapchat videos when this dead man walking gets his desserts? If Russia was the USA, Zelensky would have been fried months ago. Is Russia just keeping this fool on ice? Would it help if the Nazis just took front stage in Kiev?
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06-17-22 22:22 #877
Posts: 1056What an insult
Originally Posted by Golfinho [View Original Post]
Just watching those fkers now around the Damascus gate. Though some Americans may have redeeming features (Lot and salt), they haven one. Day after day.