Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[DramaFree11]

https://medium.com/@grantpiperwritin...g-b58872a19bef

Great article. Maybe Putin is not as dumb as everyone thought. Time is on Russia side and with high gas prices and inflation way up, Russia is definitely starting to win. If gas goes up much more and Ukraine is unwilling to negotiate, support will dry up fast for Ukraine.

[Jmsuttr]

I'm a Russian schmegegge-troll and I gladly swallow Russian Defense Ministry propaganda and spit it back out in this forum. If Russia says it, who cares if it's true?

Meanwhile, the REAL Nazis, the ones waging genocide on behalf of Russia, are being identified and tracked.

https://russian-torturers.com/en

The trials of these war criminals can't come soon enough.

[Jmsuttr]

The author dropped one very important issue in the article: The huge bridges in Kherson crossing the Dnjepr. Having lived in this area myself for a few years, I am still wondering, why the bridges have not been blown up by the UA-army, to block further advances of the Russian in the direction of Odessa, via Nikolaev. Some secret deal with the Russians: We do not blow the bridges in Kherson, you do not blow the bridges in Kiev?

Obviously you've lived there so you have local knowledge of the bridges. But isn't one river crossing over the Kakhovka Dam? That one, I'd guess, would not be targeted for destruction. As for the others, it might be as simple as Ukraine's military deciding that there's more strategic value leaving them intact. That's especially true if they (UAF) believe they can retake territory in and around Kherson. If Russia is pushed back I wouldn't be surprised if they blew up some bridges to cover their retreat.

As far as the bridges around Kyiv are concerned, Russia hasn't achieved air dominance or even air superiority during this war, and they're reportedly running low on precision-guided munitions. Ukraine has shot down quite a few missiles, although obviously not all. But my point is that it's unclear to what extent Russia can project meaningful force in the area of Kyiv.

Also, IIRC, the troops in the Kherson area aren't regular Russian army, but made up of forces from the separatist areas. That means they're less well-equipped and probably better suited to defend positions rather than to advance and take territory. If you remember, it wasn't long ago that there were concerns about an amphibious landing and coordinated attack on Odessa. That hasn't materialized and Russian efforts in the South have essentially stalled. Now that Ukraine's forces appear to be counterattacking, the next few weeks could mark a significant phase in the war.

[Jmsuttr]

I live (and love) to suck LilliPutin's raw dick. And no, I'm not worried about monkeypox.

Unlike some, I don't need a fuckboard to find foreign pussy. I've lived abroad for enough years that I can manage just fine. My two South Korea posts concerned recommended hotels. And my only other post was to suggest a website to a member who posted a question.

How hilarious it is that I've SO thoroughly kicked your ass, and repeatedly wiped the floor with it, that you're pissing yourself in a pathetic attempt to find something with which to attack me. Nothing better illustrates what a low-class scumbucket (or is that cumbucket?) you are.

Oh, and about the remaining 1% of your posts, they were deleted by the forum admins for being pointless, argumentative, wastes of bandwidth.

P.S. On the US forums I have around 1,700 posts. My reasons for posting about Kyiv and Ukraine are self-evident to anyone who doesn't have his head up his ass.

[Jmsuttr]

https://medium.com/@grantpiperwritin...g-b58872a19bef

I don't about others but I generally ignore links that don't at least come with a brief explanation of what it leads to, or some kind of indication that it's worth checking out.

[Golfinho]

https://medium.com/@grantpiperwritin...g-b58872a19bef

Russians do not take shit. Anyone who's been there even once should have very quickly found that out for themselves. It should be no surprise how this war is unfolding, yet the self-delusion among the willfully ignorant persists.

[PedroMorales]

Russian warships have destroyed a Ukrainian command center with Kalibr cruise missiles, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Sunday.

"More than 50 generals and officers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were killed," the statement said. According to the ministry, the strike took place near the village of Shirokaya Dacha in Dnepropetrovsk Region, Ukraine. The missiles hit the compound where commanders of several Ukrainian units had gathered for a meeting, the ministry said.

[Reiner Otto]

It's a short and easy read, with some informative maps.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...202452995.html

The author dropped one very important issue in the article: The huge bridges in Kherson crossing the Dnjepr. Having lived in this area myself for a few years, I am still wondering, why the bridges have not been blown up by the UA-army, to block further advances of the Russian in the direction of Odessa, via Nikolaev. Some secret deal with the Russians: We do not blow the bridges in Kherson, you do not blow the bridges in Kiev?

[Xpartan]

Nothing personal, but I think you are generally too optimistic that the war's outcome will provide a great victory for the Ukraine. I think there is enough uncertainty in this war and any war for that matter to make all predictions specious.

I think many have painted a picture the war is an existential battle for the Ukraine that can be resolved with great satisfaction and achievement. It has also been said Putin himself could very well be in an existential fight over the Ukraine. That sounds like the recipe for a long, grinding war.

What's the best outcome Ukraine "wins small" and the war ends this year or they fight a five year conflict to achieve something possibly more or possibly not? It's not an easy question to answer in my opinion.

Having said that, yes it would be great if Putin felt his world closing in, walks into his office, shuts the door and ingests a cyanide pill.

I agree that it's going to be "a long, grinding war" but you seem to presume that Ukraine somehow has a power to stop it. It doesn't.

[PedroMorales]

quack quack.

The first post is a question on S Korea, the 2nd is some useless be s on England and the rest are praising Nazis who are getting their asses handed to them in Ukraine.

[Elvis 2008]

https://medium.com/@grantpiperwritin...g-b58872a19bef

[Jmsuttr]

The author of this thread makes a persuasive (IMO) case that, while Severodonetsk (Donbas) is getting most of the attention, the battle for the Kherson region in the South is more strategically important. It's a short and easy read, with some informative maps.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...202452995.html

[Jmsuttr]

Nothing personal, but I think you are generally too optimistic that the war's outcome will provide a great victory for the Ukraine. I think there is enough uncertainty in this war and any war for that matter to make all predictions specious.

I think many have painted a picture the war is an existential battle for the Ukraine that can be resolved with great satisfaction and achievement. It has also been said Putin himself could very well be in an existential fight over the Ukraine. That sounds like the recipe for a long, grinding war.

What's the best outcome Ukraine "wins small" and the war ends this year or they fight a five year conflict to achieve something possibly more or possibly not? It's not an easy question to answer in my opinion.

Having said that, yes it would be great if Putin felt his world closing in, walks into his office, shuts the door and ingests a cyanide pill.

While I'm absolutely pro-Ukraine in sentiment, I've done my best to focus on what's actually happening, not on what "should" happen or even what I want to happen. If you can indicate the post, or posts, of mine in which I cross the line into prediction territory, please share.

It seems to me that I'm the loudest voice in this forum shouting that predictions are a fool's errand, as this war is unique in many aspects and there are too many variables, known and unknown. In fact, that's the very criticism I level against your article, is it not?

My personal feelings aside, any optimism I've expressed is generally based on optimistic developments, such as arms commitments and other support measures for Ukraine, or the recent granting of EU candidate status. Any such developments that help Ukraine sustain their war effort are positive things, and I'm not shy about pointing them out.

If, however, support for Ukraine started to fade, or other developments with long-term negative implications occurred, I would discuss those honestly. To this point I would assert that the weight of the evidence leans in a positive direction for Ukraine. And, as I've also posted numerous times, I do my best to focus on the tides, rather than waves or ripples.

That's not to say I have any clue as to how things will turn out. If I discuss the possibility of a humiliating Russia defeat, I do so as only one of several scenarios. The reason that particular scenario is often discussed is primarily because Putin foolishly set the bar too high. If he had gone directly for the limited goal of Luhansk and Donetsk, that would have been more reasonably achievable. But, by going for Kyiv itself, and "denazifying" all of Ukraine, he's made a problem for himself (with his own people) if he can't deliver. That's why I've posited that there are no real-world winnable scenarios for Russia, because:

1. If Russia conquers all of Ukraine, it will be faced with the prospect of trying to subdue and hold a country that hates it deeply. Europe, the US, and most of rest of the world would likely continue the same, or increased, sanctions regime, which is a recipe for continued isolation and tension.

2. If Russia conquers some of Ukraine (Luhansk, Donetsk, Odessa, etc.), then it becomes a kind of subset of Scenario #1, with the exception that the part of Ukraine not conquered would be actively and strenuously resisting Russia.

3. Russia conquers no significant new territory in Ukraine. So, whether the boundaries are exactly the same as before Feb 24th, or substantially so, it's clear to the non-propagandized world that the invasion has failed. And, within Russia, the potential for dissatisfaction with Putin would rise significantly. This, for all intents and purposes would be the "humiliating defeat" scenario.

4. A continuation of the current war-of-attrition, with give and take on both sides. If that were to happen, neither side could claim victory and it would become (even more so than now) a battle of will and resources.

But please note that discussing these scenarios, and examining factors that might make them more (or less) likely, isn't the same as predicting which one will actually happen. What I care most about are the facts on the ground. And, depending on those facts, it may be possible to extrapolate trends that point in one direction or another. As with all things, however, tomorrow's set of facts can change. Which is why I value accurate and knowledgeable observers more than I do analysts and pundits.

P.S. If you have an outcome that isn't one of the four listed above, or a subset of them, I'd love to hear it.

[Jmsuttr]

Of the USMC (America's equivalent of the Waffen SS) becomes the third American mercenary to be captured by Russian peace keepers in Ukraine. Capt. Kurpasi, from Wilmington, North Carolina, should know that the Geneva Convention does not apply to mercenaries. He is fair game.

No more killing Iraqi kids or Ukrainian Russian speakers for him https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/16/p...ine/index.html.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ng-for-ukraine

"I made compromises with myself for a long time. But on the 24 February (the day Russia launched its invasion), any talk of compromise became impossible," he said. "I could not be part of this crime".

"Artyom (not his real name), another member of the unit, said he joined "because it was the only chance to get rid of this regime" and had been engaged in opposition politics in Russia before leaving the country in 2020. He said he moved to Ukraine shortly before the war, sensing an imminent Russian attack. "I love my motherland," he said. "I wish it didn't have to come to this, but we have to end this system. I hope I can return home after the war".

These are Russians with a soul and conscience, noble Russians resisting the evil dictator. Each orc they kill helps to prevent another Bucha, another Irpin, another Mariupol massacre, another kidnapped child being sent off to Russia.

May their aim be true and their weapons swift to mete out justice to the criminal invaders.

[Jmsuttr]

And the Ukrainian Parliament, who will take over? Who will do the snapchat videos when this dead man walking gets his desserts? If Russia was the USA, Zelensky would have been fried months ago. Is Russia just keeping this fool on ice? Would it help if the Nazis just took front stage in Kiev?

It's my guess that, if you talk to many Russians off the record, you'd likely get an earful of how humiliating it is that the "powerful Russian military" has been stymied, and forced back from Kyiv. And right along with that is the fact that Zelensky is STILL in power and going strong. What happened to the "denazification" goal? It's utterly failed and Putin can't credibly claim otherwise as long as Kyiv's govt continues.

To add insult to injury, Zelensky is welcoming significant heads of state to Kyiv (France, Germany, Italy, UK, Poland, Romania, etc.) while the only people who visit Russia are Putin-puppets like Lukashenko, or fellow terrorists-in-arms Taliban mullahs.

And even the President of Kazakhstan, with Putin present, called out Russian propaganda and spit directly in the eye of the Kremlin. I'll make a separate post about that, but Putin must be seething at the blatant disrespect shown at his own conference.

But here's the real question: Who takes over when Putin's uncontrollable tremors, and other serious health conditions, can no longer be covered for? With the Russian military being stretched thin, will Lukashenko make a play? Isn't it interesting that Belarus has avoided putting their military at risk in Ukraine? Even a little bit of research will show that Lukashenko is a highly capable schemer, and that his clown act is only for show.

So, when Putin (naturally or otherwise) kicks the bucket, things could get very interesting.