American Politics

[Chris P]

Yep, as much I wanted us to be wrong, but we both said there would be a financial crisis as a result of the lockdowns. Now we are in recession, maybe worse. This is what happens after prolonged lockdowns, extremely poor leadership, cut back / restrictions on oil production and sponsoring a needless war. This is worse case scenario.

It's going to get worse. Hopefully so much worse that we can finally start to make it better.

[Elvis 2008]

You're talking about a dude who doesn't believe in AIDS.

I have seen people on their death bed with AIDS.

Once again, the Democratic playbook was at work. We had the CDC lie about heterosexual aids you fool to get more funding. It is the Democratic playbook again. Say you care more then Republicans and lie about a situation so it benefits you.

[Elvis 2008]

Folks like Elvis would rather have had more people die if they could have made an extra buck. The families of the dead can go pound sand, though, 'cause, well, who cares. Right, Elvis?

LOL. Stanford University professor of medicine Jay Bhattacharya noted last year that in years to come lockdowns will be looked back upon as the most catastrophically harmful policy in all of history.

The epidemiologist added Every single poor person on the face of the earth has faced some harm, sometimes catastrophic harm, from this lockdown policy, adding that "We will be counting the catastrophic health and psychological harms, imposed on nearly every poor person on the face of the earth, for a generation.

A peer reviewed study by Stanford researchers found that mandatory lockdowns do not provide more benefits to stopping the spread of COVID-19 than voluntary measures such as social distancing.

The researchers found no clear, significant beneficial effect of more restrictive measures on case growth in any country.

As we also previously reported, Academics from Duke, Harvard, and Johns Hopkins have concluded that there could be around a million excess deaths over the next two decades as a result of lockdowns. Kluge's warning matched that of the WHO's special envoy on COVID-19, Dr David Nabarro, who told the Spectator in an interview that world leaders should stop imposing lockdowns as a reflex reaction because they are making poor people an awful lot poorer.

[Xpartan]

We have a blowhard expert right here in Elvis. Just ask him. He's never wrong.

You're talking about a dude who doesn't believe in AIDS. There is no way back from there, things can only go downhill.

[Villainy]

"Tucker Carlson said this in a legal case. Only a fool would believe him." And yet you still believe him. What does that make you?

OUCH! that has to hurt.

[Villainy]

Yeah, I never saw anyone die with Covid.

I never saw anyone die of Covid either but I'm not a Doubting Elvis I don't think you can ignore the fact that millions died from the disease just because you didn't see it.

These Dem dummies forget their God awful predictions.

The only prediction I made was that you would be wrong on a grand scale, because you don't have any analytical skills and you were just parroting what your orange hero was saying. Remember? Covid will disappear in a few months when the weather turns warm. Remember? OH wait! The Southern hemisphere was still finishing their summer and Covid cases there were multiplying exponentially.

They spew this crap about Sweden but only compare it to countries with worse numbers. Sweden was in the bottom 25% of cases and deaths in all of Europe. The English and French hailed Sweden's policies as a success story.

NO you can't stand it that your great example was a bust. You wanted to compare Sweden to any of the countries that were having a worse experience no matter where they were located, because you have no analytical integrity. The neighboring countries were the obvious candidates for comparison. Almost perfect similarities and they all chose to lockdown at least for a while.

I know, I know, those comparisons urinated all over your theory and you're still sensitive about it. Grow up!

The other "success" countries like New Zealand, Australia, South Korea, and Thailand the drive by media was raving about got clobbered by later waves of Covid, but the funny thing was the absolute denial on the horrific effects Covid lockdowns had with depression, opioids, the economy, and children and their education.

Those countries all had secondary waves but by then the Covid virus had mutated after the vaccines were used. The new variants (Omnicron) were far less lethal and far more transmissible.

The point was that the number of deaths per million persons infected went down dramatically. Some people would say that was a big success for their temporary lockdown and testing strategy.

I'm sure that those children who missed out on school really preferred having their parents alive. Don't you think??

I would correct the rest of your rant but it just gets to be too tiring. Perhaps one of our objective members will step in to finish off your latest garbage

[PVMonger]

V showed the dumb Dem method. Attack the source. Dems are so stupid that they think if they say "Oh, Fox News" they have won an argument. If you push them on it, they will attack the credentials of the source. Tucker Carlson said this in a legal case. Only a fool would believe him.

So Mr. Expert V lost all that because it was Biden himself that was talking. He then tries to save himself and does the could game. Biden could have been talking about Jeffrey Epstein. No, Biden was talking about an article written and we know when this was and what the article was about. This had nothing to do with Jeffery Epstein. Epstein was a lie V pulled out of his ass.

The Democrats are the party of liar lawyers, and the joke I make about lawyers is that you know what they say when they shoot you in the leg? "You are lucky. I could have shot you in the head". That is the method of the dumb Dem. They shoot you and then expect you to be grateful.

"Tucker Carlson said this in a legal case. Only a fool would believe him." And yet you still believe him. What does that make you?

[PVMonger]

Great post. Yes, Sweden is doing just fine. The vax has been an utter failure, as everyone can still get covid after getting it (not to mention heart attacks, strokes, blood clots, bells palsy, and other cases of SADS. Sudden Adult Death Syndrome). They claim that it lessens the symptoms or some such guff, but that is moving the goalposts: when it was being introduced, the claim was that the vax would prevent infection and transmission. Lies upon lies upon lies.

The really fascinating fact is that there were no total excess deaths in 2020. That is to say, the usual number of people died in that year. All the people who died of "covid" actually died of various comorbidities and would have gone anyway. However, since 2021, there has been a spike in total excess deaths. Ie since the mass vaccine rollout.

The economic side alone. Not to mention the suffering, opioid abuse, depression, stunted childhoods, etc. Is horrific. But I tend to see the silver lining, which will be the collapse of the federal government and the evil Washington swamp and its fake news wormtongues. When they can simply no longer pay for their repression operations, freedom-minded Americans will be more likely to break out from under them and restore our liberty and way of life.

It will be tough and messy, but things have to get worse before they can get better.

When the COVID vaccine was introduced the claim was that the vax would prevent infection and transmission Sure thing, Chrissy. You got a source for that? But what's more, just who was president* when the vaccine was developed? Your boy the Mango Mussolini, that's who. If there was a problem with the vaccine effectiveness, who gets the blame? Your boy the Mango Mussolini, that's who.

The vaccine isn't safe because you can get things like heart attacks, strokes, blood clots, bells palsy, and other cases of SADS. The things you mentioned (and others that you didn't) occur about 5 times per million vaccine shots. Which is an infinitesimal percentage. About the same percentage as you or any other rightwingnut making sense in one of your posts.

There were no excess deaths in 2020 Really? As shown here https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/e...e?country=~USA But you will probably say something like, "well those numbers don't account for pre-existing conditions because any excess death with a pre-existing condition doesn't count. ".

[PVMonger]

Yeah, I never saw anyone die with Covid. Thing is that calculation was based on what was known at the time. These Dem dummies forget their God awful predictions. They spew this crap about Sweden but only compare it to countries with worse numbers. Sweden was in the bottom 25% of cases and deaths in all of Europe. The English and French hailed Sweden's policies as a success story.

The other "success" countries like New Zealand, Australia, South Korea, and Thailand the drive by media was raving about got clobbered by later waves of Covid, but the funny thing was the absolute denial on the horrific effects Covid lockdowns had with depression, opioids, the economy, and children and their education.

So many studies have shown now the lockdowns were not worth the cost, but I knew the dumb Dems would never accept the cost. When do they ever? I was so pissed GW Bush took 9-11 and took us $3 trillion into more debt and crashed the economy, but that was nothing. I think Covid was $6 billion in federal programs and $3 trillion added on the Fed's balance sheet.

Chris, did you see the video where Biden said government spending does not cause inflation? Yeah, it was all Putin.

The latest financial data was the ISM survey sucked and GDPnow run by the Atlanta Fed is projecting a Q2 of -201 percent which means we are in a recession and have been the whole year. https://mishtalk.com/economics/gdpno...learly-started.

The funny thing now is that you know now how the dumb Dems react. This is a projection not a reality. Show some other blowhard "expert" making a case against this, Then there will be acceptance and the finger pointing. So here is my odds on who is to blame for the recession: 60% Putin, 30% Trump, and 10% some other party. I have a feeling the dumb Dems may, may try to drag the Supreme Court in it. Maybe antivaxxers? You never know.

Or maybe, just maybe, the Dems will accept responsibility for the recession and pledge to do better.

He he he. Like that will ever happen.

Last things in the world that caused the recession were the stupid fucking lockdowns and excessive government spending.

We have a blowhard expert right here in Elvis. Just ask him. He's never wrong.

Here is Elvis with a PhD in Economics.

Like the BS of "So many studies have shown now the lockdowns were not worth the cost". To RethugliKKKans, nothing is worth the financial cost because they see everything in terms of the almighty dollar. If lockdowns saved lives, the lockdowns weren't worth it to RethugliKKKans. If lockdowns helped slow the onslaught of patients to hospital ERs, lockdowns weren't worth it to RethugliKKKans. Folks like Elvis would rather have had more people die if they could have made an extra buck. The families of the dead can go pound sand, though, 'cause, well, who cares. Right, Elvis? https://theconversation.com/why-nobo...orth-it-161154.

Here is Elvis the MD

Evidently Elvis believes that COVID was the only disease in the history of humankind that never killed people who were healthy. Which is complete BS and he knows it. In actuality, everybody has some kind of pre-existing condition. It may not have been tested for yet, but it is there. But, according to Elvis the M. The, if you have a pre-existing condition and you die of COVID, you actually died of the pre-existing condition, not COVID. What BS.

Everybody needs to realize that Elvis is an expert in everything. But what is an exspurt. An ex is a has-been and a spurt is a drip under pressure.

[MarquisdeSade1]

If Elvis went short on the market every time an incoming Dem had to massively deficit spend in order to pull us out of the horrific decline combined with stone cold empty coffers the outgoing Repub left behind and simply do it at some point when the tactic showed signs of working and was no longer needed then that was a pretty damn easy pattern to follow without all this constant daily if not hourly study, research and due diligence on irrelevant factors he appears to devote himself to for the cause.

Problem is not every one of those previous Dem rescues and recoveries of the Repub crash and decline coincidentally had the global supply-chain collapse, Ukrainian grain and Russian oil supply disruptions extending and exacerbating the inevitable recovery-related inflation issue this one has going against it.

So if he had followed his repeated "reasoning" for going short this time in those previous times he would not have produced a gain worth the risk of getting out of the market.

In fact, if he had sold out of the market those previous times for the same "reason" he boasts about having gotten out this time that means he stood by on the sidelines and missed out on some of the greatest and longest uninterrupted Bull Market runs in history.

I'm guessin free trailer homes and cars are next.

Just one big plantation, billionaires and their slaves.

https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/ca...are-immigrants

[Elvis 2008]

Ah. You're acting dumb. Not a stretch for you, I suppose.

As you know, the voicemail was regarding Hunter's dubious business deals with some Chinese tycoon. That is the context, and is why Sleepy Joe referred to an article on the matter which was about to be published.

The real questions are: why did Biden lie when he said he had no idea at all about any of his son's dubious business deals (despite being referred to as "the big guy", as in "10% for the big guy" and secondly, why does the mainstream (fake news) media show no interest in investigating why a sitting president lied about a potentially criminal matter?

But of course, to ask is to answer.

V showed the dumb Dem method. Attack the source. Dems are so stupid that they think if they say "Oh, Fox News" they have won an argument. If you push them on it, they will attack the credentials of the source. Tucker Carlson said this in a legal case. Only a fool would believe him.

So Mr. Expert V lost all that because it was Biden himself that was talking. He then tries to save himself and does the could game. Biden could have been talking about Jeffrey Epstein. No, Biden was talking about an article written and we know when this was and what the article was about. This had nothing to do with Jeffery Epstein. Epstein was a lie V pulled out of his ass.

The Democrats are the party of liar lawyers, and the joke I make about lawyers is that you know what they say when they shoot you in the leg? "You are lucky. I could have shot you in the head". That is the method of the dumb Dem. They shoot you and then expect you to be grateful.

[Chris P]

Yeah, I never saw anyone die with Covid. Thing is that calculation was based on what was known at the time. These Dem dummies forget their God awful predictions. They spew this crap about Sweden but only compare it to countries with worse numbers. Sweden was in the bottom 25% of cases and deaths in all of Europe. The English and French hailed Sweden's policies as a success story.

The other "success" countries like New Zealand, Australia, South Korea, and Thailand the drive by media was raving about got clobbered by later waves of Covid, but the funny thing was the absolute denial on the horrific effects Covid lockdowns had with depression, opioids, the economy, and children and their education.

So many studies have shown now the lockdowns were not worth the cost, but I knew the dumb Dems would never accept the cost. When do they ever? I was so pissed GW Bush took 9-11 and took us $3 trillion into more debt and crashed the economy, but that was nothing. I think Covid was $6 billion in federal programs and $3 trillion added on the Fed's balance sheet.

Chris, did you see the video where Biden said government spending does not cause inflation? Yeah, it was all Putin.

The latest financial data was the ISM survey sucked and GDPnow run by the Atlanta Fed is projecting a Q2 of -201 percent which means we are in a recession and have been the whole year. https://mishtalk.com/economics/gdpno...learly-started.

The funny thing now is that you know now how the dumb Dems react. This is a projection not a reality. Show some other blowhard "expert" making a case against this, Then there will be acceptance and the finger pointing. So here is my odds on who is to blame for the recession: 60% Putin, 30% Trump, and 10% some other party. I have a feeling the dumb Dems may, may try to drag the Supreme Court in it. Maybe antivaxxers? You never know.

Or maybe, just maybe, the Dems will accept responsibility for the recession and pledge to do better.

He he he. Like that will ever happen.

Last things in the world that caused the recession were the stupid fucking lockdowns and excessive government spending.

Great post. Yes, Sweden is doing just fine. The vax has been an utter failure, as everyone can still get covid after getting it (not to mention heart attacks, strokes, blood clots, bells palsy, and other cases of SADS. Sudden Adult Death Syndrome). They claim that it lessens the symptoms or some such guff, but that is moving the goalposts: when it was being introduced, the claim was that the vax would prevent infection and transmission. Lies upon lies upon lies.

The really fascinating fact is that there were no total excess deaths in 2020. That is to say, the usual number of people died in that year. All the people who died of "covid" actually died of various comorbidities and would have gone anyway. However, since 2021, there has been a spike in total excess deaths. Ie since the mass vaccine rollout.

The economic side alone. Not to mention the suffering, opioid abuse, depression, stunted childhoods, etc. Is horrific. But I tend to see the silver lining, which will be the collapse of the federal government and the evil Washington swamp and its fake news wormtongues. When they can simply no longer pay for their repression operations, freedom-minded Americans will be more likely to break out from under them and restore our liberty and way of life.

It will be tough and messy, but things have to get worse before they can get better.

[Elvis 2008]

If Elvis went short on the market every time an incoming Dem

Hey, Gramps, I did not go short the market with every incoming Dem. I already said that. I also said I went short in April of this year after April 15. Do you know what it is when one of you Dems repeats the lies of another? It is not popular; it is a duo of dumb Dems. Both you and V have showed me you are morons who do not know how to invest and are way, way down to me. If you are 25% down in the market and I am 50% up, you have to double your money to catch me. Good luck with that Gramps.

[Chris P]

Would it help if I gave you a conservative source? Ever hear of the Heritage Foundation?

Haha! The Heritage Foundation a "conservative source"! Good one. You'll be telling us Mitt Romney is a rock-ribbed right-winger next.

In reality, of course, the likes of the Heritage Foundation and Romney are RINOs. They are a worse and more devious enemy of the heritage American people than the democrats and fake news, because the latter are at least sometimes honest about where they stand (pro-child trannies; anti-white; open borders; going to make you live in a pod and eat bugs because the world is going to end in 10 years because of "climate change": we all know the drill).

Oh BTW about Poland, the "Human Rights Watch" pro-EU leftists did all they could to prevent mail-in voting for Poland's election during covid. That's because the ruling right-wing Law and Justice Party were in charge of it. The leftists know perfectly well how unsecure and corrupt it is. And they want to make sure that only they can benefit from it, as with the Biden fraud. LOL.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2...racy-warns-hrw

It is simple common sense, backed up by plentiful evidence such as this UK government review which uncovered massive mail-in voting fraud among "British" Pakistanis voting in UK elections - https://www.business-standard.com/ar...1201637_1.html - that the only way to have a secure election is in-person voting, on election day, with photo ID verification, on paper ballots which are counted and signed off by members of either side.

There is no way of knowing where mail-in ballots went; who filled them out; or indeed whether they are even genuine. Fraudsters are ingenious and flexible, particularly when they have the backing of the entire mainstream media as in the 2020 US election.

The result is that half the country have lost faith in the electoral process. Do you think that that. Along with the open border, rocketing inflation and economic dislocation, etc. Will improve the situation in the country? Of course not. So why not simply have a secure election? What do you have to lose? Oh, the White House.

All bringing the inevitable breakup closer. You can have your child trannies, climate hysteria, anti-white hate, mass turd word immigration; we'll have our American people and values; and we'll all be much happier apart. But no, sorry, you can't claim refugee status when your government takes your house, job and daughter for reparations.

[Villainy]

Yeah, and the clients can leave, declare bankruptcy, and if land is cheap enough, go out and build on their own building and real estate is going to get cheaper when the Fed is selling MBS not buying them. That is where you are fighting the fed. You think home MBS and commercial ones do not compete with each other? Why would you think that?

Oooh here comes Elvis the legal expert! You can't declare bankruptcy to break a lease because it has become inconvenient. If you really are insolvent, I bet you would have a hard time finding a bank that would lend you the money to buy another property much less construct / improve a building on it. Yes Elvis, commercial real estate is a completely different entity than home mortgages. Interest rates are different, terms are different, loan to values are different.

.......one should not hold REITs which have a fixed yield. The REIT will go down in value due to multiple contraction which you still do not get....

They why is it that 4 of the 5 REITs I own shares in have gone up nicely and only 1 is down and just about 1 or 2 percent. The reason Elvis is that most of the tenants have investment grade ratings and 4 of the 5 REITs are Net-Lease REITs which is important. Property expenses go up. But the tenant pays those, rents go up too based on annual CPI adjustments.

And the 0% rates and free cash is what prompted the Biden rally. And not only that, it was impossible to calculate fair value.

You mean it was impossible for you to calculate fair value.

Secondly, Mr. Real Estate, there are ARM mortgages. Maybe you have heard of them? With an adjustable rate mortgage, people pay more to those who hold the mortgages when mortgage rates go up. There are funds called note funds which hold a pile of said mortgages. And when interest rates go up, the yield on said funds go up and the value of the fund goes up as well.

Wow! Apparently you haven't been doing your homework or paying attention. It was ARM mortgages that almost brought down the financial system in 2008-2010. Why? When the teaser rates expired people found out they couldn't afford the higher monthly rates. When the market cooled and the couldn't resell at a profit (they were forced to abandon the properties) and all those MBS (mortgage backed securities) started failing. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac who guaranteed those loans went into receivership. You like quotes?? Apparently you do. Who said:

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. "?

So why do you not own any note funds but REITs when the fed is raising rates? Because you are a moron.

I know better. But please show me I'm wrong and buy as much as you can.

So what happens to value stocks, growth stocks, and REITs in a high inflation / rising interest rate climate? They all go down in value, and your portfolio HAS gone down in value.

Growth stocks will mostly go down and depending on many factors. Value stocks might or might not go down. They were value stocks because they were pretty low to begin with. That is what defines a value stock. REITs will do all sorts of things. There are 20 different categories (more or less). Net-Lease REITs with rent escalators and solid dividends do very well in inflationary periods. I'm sorry. I know you don't want that to be true. But it is. Warren Buffet (through Berkshire Hathaway) owns some REITs. I guess he must be a moron too. Afterall I'm sure you think you know more than he does.

What goes up in value? Inverse ETFs that short the market, note funds, and commodities in high demand and low supply that can be raised in price over the inflation rate. At this time, that would be oil.

Inverse ETFs (especially the leveraged ones 2 X or 3 X) are not investments Elvis those are speculation vehicles. They go up fast and you think you're a genius but they also go down fast (usually even faster than they went up) If you had 1/2 a brain AND you actually bought those and have a profit, I would tell you to cash in your chips while you still have chips. The only reason I tell you this is so that later I can say I told you so. Note funds are paying sizeable dividends. Why is that? Because they are hyper-risky. The high interest rate tells you that. Interest rates go up, ARMs reset at higher rates and then people start defaulting. But I think you should buy a ton more of them because you know more than everyone else. Commodities? Sure if you can figure out which commodities are going to go up before everyone else you can do well. But supply and demand always return to equilibrium so don't be late.

So you are not diversified. You just think you are. If you accuse me of not being diversified, I am guilty as charged but unlike you I know what I am doing. For me, diversification is diworseifaction. So stockbrokers say do not keep all your eggs in one basket. Someone else said, " "Keep all your eggs in one basket, but watch that basket closely. " Who was that? And who wrote a book on diworseification?

You are clueless. Oh and your quote is from Warren Buffett but he also said that people who don't spend inordinate amounts of time reading financial statements and studying the market should invest their money in index funds (like Vanguard's S&P 500 fund) because they have negligible fees and they should make consistent periodic investments into the fund and not bother to look at the balances. The balance will go up and it will go down but over several decades you will have a fortune. A classic do as I say, not as I do comment. But, of course, he knows what he is talking about.

Another significant date was April 15 when people have to fund their retirement accounts. That is the basis of the slogan, "Sell in May and go away" and why invested shortly after that date. That is investing on fact not market timing. There are huge cash inflows into the market before April 15.

Even more evidence of complete ignorance. You can only contribute 6,000 to your regular IRA (7,000 if you are over 50) the majority of the retirement funding goes on through out the year. People make contributions to their 401 K or 457 B plan per pay-check. Most of the inflow into the market in March and April comes from tax refunds. I know, I know you want to believe that if you are getting a refund you would have filed the first week of February (after you receive all the 1099 documents) but most just don't do it. Some of those regular IRA fundings happen right around tax-time. But people with solid higher incomes who also have a 401 K or other plan are severely limited to what they can throw into an IRA (if anything).

So what is fair value on the S&P with mortgages paying 6.5%? Fair value IMO is at least 8% or a PE value of 12.5. So fair valuation on the S&P is 2500 if earnings come in at $200. To justify a $4000 valuation, S&P earnings would have to come in at $320 which is insane. And that is why I am short. The market is pricing the S&P based on history instead of comparable asset classes, and earnings projections IMO are in fantasy land.

THAT is fundamental analysis dumb ass and what you have shown is you do not have a fucking clue what that is, moron.

Sorry Elvis, what you have regurgitated is what someone else wrote. You liked it because that author knows more than you do, which isn't exactly a high bar. For the S&P500 to drop to 2,500 would be more than a 33% additional sell-off. Not impossible but you would need something on the order of a financial collapse similar to 2008-2010 and most companies are still very healthy.

Analysts are predicting a recession in late 2023 of mild proportions. Do you know better than them? Not a chance. But hey, if you're dead set on proving how smart you are, you can go all in on your leveraged reverse ETF. You may be begging for scraps like that guy mentioned in the Medellin forum.