Thread: American Politics
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09-27-22 02:16 #10373
Posts: 5564Originally Posted by Spidy [View Original Post]
Biden could not ignore it.
Of course, Goldilocks Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold, Just Right For My Perfect World Larry Summers has never mentioned that factor.
Nor has he factored in the very good chance of things involving extreme weather conditions, flare ups of new and more virulent strains of Trump's Pandemic virus anywhere in the world, former nutty KGB World Leaders going nuttier, oh and how about whatever violent, explosive Domestic Terrorism acts might occur any minute incited and led by an even nuttier former so-called potus in the mix?
Gee, it just might turn out going a tad overboard rather than woefully under estimated on economic stimulus the one and only time you can bet on going to the well before that traditional 1st Midterm outcome comes around was really the best and most prudent option for a Real POTUS who knows he has no option to taste a bit of this porridge, a bit of that porridge and then the third porridge until he finds the exact right one before he heads up to the bedroom to test this mattress, then that one and on and on.
Goldilocks Summers and others like him can disregard those real world risks in order to opine in all directions what "could" happen if you create too many jobs and put too much money in the system in response to a totally new and unprecedented way for godawful Repub stewardship to destroy the economy and the country.
Biden can't.
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09-27-22 00:26 #10372
Posts: 5564Originally Posted by Tiny12 [View Original Post]
Or maybe, like Trump's Fed Chairman appointee, the problem was Larry Summers just wasn't very good at his job as Director of the National Economic Council from January 20,2009 to January 20,2011.
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09-27-22 00:02 #10371
Posts: 5564It could. No, really?
Originally Posted by Tiny12 [View Original Post]
And we "could" have an exceptionally bad Hurricane Season where my tax dollars will for the umpteenth time bail out deadbeat Repubs in Florida and Texas who crow about low taxes but can't ever seem to deal with their shit weather conditions on their own.
If that happens or if there is a new and unexpected virulent outbreak of Trump's Pandemic virus in key supply chain sources of the world or Putin decides to invade the United Kingdom, etc, at least we will have kept tens of thousands of businesses open and created millions more jobs along with the revenue generated with those Biden / Dem recovery measures that "could" have looked like too much to Mr. "could" Be Too Much or Too Hot For My Perfect World Summers but will definitely come in handy come emergency response time.
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09-26-22 22:18 #10370
Posts: 2581The fat lady is warming up for all you CCP asslickers
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09-26-22 22:17 #10369
Posts: 2581The rich will say he was a good "house slave"
Originally Posted by Tiny12 [View Original Post]
He was too busy shooting hoops and smokin weed and having big parties snorting coke etc.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/o...elle-26jm0xq5g
Here's something in line with the rest of his self serving 8 yr ghost payroll gig.
https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/...cing-disparity
https://twitter.com/robrousseau/stat...93879392772102
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/...e-obama-233032
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09-26-22 22:09 #10368
Posts: 428Yes Obama made it easy for Trump to turn around the economy
Originally Posted by EihTooms [View Original Post]
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09-26-22 21:20 #10367
Posts: 1807Originally Posted by MarquisdeSade1 [View Original Post]
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09-26-22 20:25 #10366
Posts: 1149Does Donnie "the Devil" have Decency?
Originally Posted by EihTooms [View Original Post]
Donnie "the devil" J. Dummkopf, couldn't even spell "decency", let alone have enough of it, to do the honorable thing and perform the peaceful transference of power.
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09-26-22 20:07 #10365
Posts: 1149Bothsidesism rears its ugly head
Originally Posted by JustTK [View Original Post]
Try looking at "the man in the mirror", as the one who remains the real problem, for their politics, stand for nothing and falls for everything.
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09-26-22 19:52 #10364
Posts: 2581Well
Originally Posted by Tiny12 [View Original Post]
You are much more astute about these matters than everyone else around here.
Here's a question, aren't Barry Husseins numbers largely skewed by the fact that the economy imploded right before he took the "bestest" ghost payroll gig of all time in Jan 2009.
Largely in part at the behest of BUBBA repealing Glass Steagal, tanking GWs #s and propping up Barry Husseins after the market inevitably recovered.
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09-26-22 19:26 #10363
Posts: 1807Originally Posted by EihTooms [View Original Post]
https://www.google.com/search?q=larry+summers+inflation&rlz=1 C1 CHBD_enUS898 US898&biw=1920&bih=969&source=lnt&tbs=cdr%3 A1%2 Ccd_min%3 A12%2 F1%2 F2020%2 Ccd_max%3 A03%2 F10%2 F2021&tbm=nws.
Maybe this will make sense to you. I'm quoting from the Financial Times, which is behind a paywall, so no link. This is Summers, in his own words, in an interview with Martin Wolf.
If you look at the economy at the beginning of this year, prevailing forecasts were that Covid would reduce wages and salaries to American households by $20 bn-$30 bn a month, with that figure declining over the year. So, that would be a $250 bn-$300 bn hole in wages and salaries over the course of the year.
So, I look at this hole and then I see $900 bn of stimulus in the December package, $1. 9 tn of stimulus in the recently passed package and $2 tn in the savings overhang, which is also likely to be spent. I see the Fed with its foot on the accelerator as hard as any Fed has ever done.
That could manifest itself, as a much smaller period of excess did during the Vietnam war, in rising inflation and a ratcheting-up of inflation expectations. It could, as has often happened, manifest itself in the Federal Reserve feeling a need for a sharp and surprising increase in interest rates, and the subsequent deceleration of the economy into recession.
It could manifest itself in a period of euphoric boom and optimism that leads to unsustainable bubbles, or it could all work out well. But, it doesn't seem to me that the preponderant probability is that it will work out well. So I'm concerned that what is being done is substantially excessive.
So you've got a $2 trillion savings overhang, wages reduced by $250 to $300 billion per year, and Biden et al helicopter drop $1. 9 trillion into the economy! That's almost 10% of GDP! Crazy! Nuts! No wonder the labor force participation rate hasn't bounced back to where it should be, despite there being 2X more job openings than people looking for jobs.
As to cherry picking Summers' scenarios, he said probably one of two things would happen.
1. High inflation and / or stagflation, or.
2. The Fed slams on the breaks so hard to prevent high inflation so that we go into a deep recession.
Well, "1" has already happened. "2" may be next. For completeness sake, the third possibility he threw out was that the Fed might adroitly avoid high inflation or recession. Well, that didn't come to pass.
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09-26-22 19:13 #10362
Posts: 1807Originally Posted by EihTooms [View Original Post]
Blinder and Watson studied the comparative economic performance from Truman's elected term through Obama's first term in 2012. They excluded certain causes, and identified some possible causes. Excluded as causes were age and experience of the president, which political party controlled Congress, and quality of economy inherited (as Democrats tended to take over when times were more difficult). Further, fiscal and monetary policy did not seem to be possible causes. Changes in tax policy had little impact; for example, Clinton raised taxes while Reagan cut them, but both had strong growth. Interest rates had typically risen under Democrats and fallen under Republicans, which theoretically should have favored Republicans. Democrats did benefit from lower oil prices, larger increases in productivity, and better global conditions.
Blinder and Watson concluded that: "Rather, it appears that the Democratic edge stems mainly from more benign oil shocks, superior total factor productivity (TFP) performance, a more favorable international environment, and perhaps more optimistic consumer expectations about the near-term future. ".
In other words, it wasn't party's policies or governance that accounted for over or under performance, it was blind luck.
I refuse to do more than scan the "Balance" article. Looking over the sections on taxation and climate, it's partisan bullshit. The USA has had the most progressive tax system in the OECD for a long time, under both Republican and Democratic presidents. And why would Democrats' climate change policies affect economic performance?
As to Evonimics and New Republic, Mediabiasfactcheck.com indicates they're about as far left as you can get. I've got better things to do than read those.
I can't read your New York Times OPINION piece unless I'm a subscriber.
The market watch article agrees at least in part with my earlier reply to one of your posts. The outperformance is because recessions have occurred predominately during Republican administrations. The writer attributes this to three possible causes.
Luck.
Factors a president has no control over, like a sudden increase in oil prices.
Deregulation implemented during Republican administrations.
He fails to list a pandemic.
Given that I believe deregulation is a bull shit explanation, at least from what I've observed in my lifetime, I continue to believe the relationship between the party of the president and measures like GDP growth, median household income, median weekly wages, and unemployment is mostly spurious. I do give the Republicans some credit however for higher median weekly wages, higher median household income, and lower unemployment pre-COVID, in 2019, because of the corporate tax cut and deregulation.
On that last point, I haven't forgotten about your earlier post that included a couple of links, including one that used IRS tax statistics to show that lower income Americans haven't seen much wage growth during the Trump years, pre-COVID. I actually don't disagree with that, but suspect the IRS data will show that from the 50th percentile on up, we did very well. I just haven't had the time to download the IRS's excel tables and look at the data. But I will. I'll be back!
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09-26-22 16:50 #10361
Posts: 2581You like links? I got links for ya
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09-26-22 15:47 #10360
Posts: 5564Trump's Fed Chairman should apologize to America
So says leading economist Jeremy Siegel.
I see Siegel agrees with Summers and me that the earliest cause of persistently high inflation in the wake of Trump's Pandemic's global economic destruction is that Trump's Fed Chairman appointment was just not good at his job.
Wharton's Siegel says Jerome Powell owes 'the American people an apology'
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/26/whar...ndroidappshare
"Honestly, I think Chairman Powell should offer the American people an apology for such poor monetary policy that he has pursued, and the Fed has pursued, over the past few years, Siegel said.
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Siegel said on CNBCs Squawk Box that persistently high inflation in 2022 is due in large part to mistakes made by the Fed in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic, which caused economic shutdowns around the world and big drops in global markets, and that the Feds pivot to fast rate hikes would cause more economic damage.
And he barely triggered a recession in Carter's strong, job-creating economy at all. It was over just a few weeks after it began.
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09-26-22 14:12 #10359
Posts: 1604Really?
Originally Posted by Elvis2008 [View Original Post]
Tell me again that President Biden has lost more jobs than Donnie the Dumbass and provide a source that proves it. Unless, of course, you don't consider "jobs lost during the pandemic" to be either an economic factor or a pandemic factor.
I'll wait, gladly.