Cuba and US Politics

[Organicgrowth]

Grey Soul 15,

Thanks for this article and the URL. I agree 100% with Brian Latell's conclusions. I guess along with what's happening in Mexico right now and this Cuban situation, we are entering some very interesting times.

Regards, Havanaman

[Grey Soul 15]

latell: succession in cuba may have begun

brian latell, former top cuba analyst for the cia, and now a researcher at um's institute for cuban and cuban-american studies, believes the succession of power from fidel castro to his brother raul may have already begun. he writes this month in his latell report:

"signs of what is probably accelerating succession planning at the highest levels of the castro regime have been multiplying since early this month. as fidel castro’s ability to provide coherent leadership has conspicuously deteriorated, his brother raul seems to be assuming broader responsibilities while also reaching out to improve his image with the cuban people. these developments could even indicate that raul has already assumed critical responsibilities from his brother and is now acting as cuba’s de facto top decision maker.

"raul has been asserting personal control over the communist party apparatus, highlighting its likely enhanced role in the future. he has been focusing intense and sympathetic media attention on himself, while also emphasizing the strength and unity of the armed forces he has run since 1959. he has been out in public much more than has been customary, regularly now appearing on the front page of the official communist party daily, granma. cuban media coverage of the younger castro has reached such unprecedented intensity in fact, that it seems logical to conclude that he has authorized the creation of his own public relations staff. always deferential to fidel’s starring role in the cuban revolution, raul would never in the past have presumed to upstage his brother this way.

"the media blitz began on june 3rd, raul’s 75th birthday, when granma, ran a remarkable, extended paean to the defense minister. under the headline cercania de raul, literally translated as “nearness” to raul, the article was intended in part to project a sympathetic image of a leader who has never been popular with the cuban people. but the spanish language title of the article also suggests a possibly momentous double meaning: cercania de raul might also be translated as the “proximity of raul,” suggesting that his ascent to power in his own right has begun, or is imminent. i do not believe that raul has ever been the subject of such unusual and personalized media attention."

"the granma birthday article was unprecedented in a number of respects. the authors, longtime close personal friends of raul, seemed intent on distinguishing him favorably from fidel, which would have been inconceivable until now. the “modesty and simplicity” that raul demonstrates “in personal interactions” according to the authors, certainly contrasts with fidel’s grandiosity."

"raul, the article emphasized, avoids making “unilateral assessments.” instead –and notably unlike his brother—he always encourages “collective” approaches to solving problems. the implication in this, and other similar references in the article, as well as in a pointed passage in a speech raul delivered to a military audience on june 14th, is probably that he intends to govern at the head of a collective civilian-military team. he seems to be signaling other cuban officials that he does not plan to occupy all of the most important positions of power in the party and government, as fidel does. that is a sound strategy for assuring leadership support for raul’s uncontested succession..."

"...the article concludes with several passages drawn from fidel’s speeches and interviews over the years, in which he certifies his brother as his legitimate and preferred successor. “in my opinion, the colleague that was best prepared and that i knew could very well carry out the task was comrade raul.” and, fidel is also quoted as once having said: “everybody knows we hate nepotism here. (but) i honestly think that (raul) has the sufficient qualities to substitute for me in case i die in this battle".

http://blogs.herald.com/cuban_connection/

[Organicgrowth]

If you ask that question, it means that you made your mind already, and of course, I know who your choice for the guiltiest is! I bet you don't have any idea of how many people (Cubans and not Cubans) have died due to fidel's actions since he took power.
About where Cuba ranks in anything, nobody (not even the Cuban government) knows that. Statistics in the island are a result of what looks good for the regime, not reality. Of course you won't believe any of that. To you, fidel is perfect. In reality, for you, he is, without him......

Well let me see: Wise up and start thinking before making judgements:

If you ask that question, it means that you made your mind already,......

How do you know that I made my mind up: YOU know NOTHING about me. We can all see and know that you are quick to make judgements about others! So we know about you.

Is it by magic that you know these things?

I bet you don't have any idea of how many people (Cubans and not Cubans) have died due to fidel's actions since he took power.......

You are 100% right. I have no idea. No one does, except maybe you when you use the same magic you used earlier to know what I am thinking!

About where Cuba ranks in anything, nobody (not even the Cuban government) knows that. Statistics in the island are a result of what looks good for the regime, not reality........

Try doing a simple search in yahoo or goggle: just type in the words “life expectancy in cuba”.

Let me help you: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/.../2102rank.html

This is a CIA site…. Last time I looked C.I.A. was an American institution…. There are many such sites giving a lot of data about many countries. There are academic institutions which make special studies on age, longevity and socio-economic correlations: just do the searches and you can see the data.

Alternatively just tune in your magic and see what you get before you start to flame… Get my point or do you need it explaining?

To you, fidel is perfect......

That’s your magic again isn’t it? You seem to know what I am thinking…. I guess you must be really angry with me right now because I am having some strong thoughts about you!

Of course Fidel is not perfect. He is a shit, just like Arbusto! I have disliked the man since I heard him speak at the Malecon, in the late ‘70’s and many times since then.

In reality, for you, he is, without him......

I have no idea what you are trying to say here: perhaps if you learned better English instead of wasting peoples time using your magic to know what they are saying, it would be possible to have an intelligent conversation with you…

Regards, Havanaman

[Rebel Monger]

I also read that he had Parkinsons.

Life expectancy in Cuba is ranked as 50th in the world, and at 73.84 years for men (78.73 years for women). Our bearded friend is now 80 years old. He has exceeded his countries average. I wish him a few more years.

I say this of course, ignoring any “wrong doings” we may point in his direction; but then which politician / country leader is innocent?

Mr. Arbusto, ex-alcoholic, bible thumper and common electoral cheat is guiltier of even more heinous crimes against humanity than the bearded one…

I wonder which of these two leaders is responsible for more unnecessary deaths?

Regards, Havanaman

If you ask that question, it means that you made your mind already, and of course, I know who your choice for the guiltiest is! I bet you don't have any idea of how many people (Cubans and not Cubans) have died due to fidel's actions since he took power.
About where Cuba ranks in anything, nobody (not even the Cuban government) knows that. Statistics in the island are a result of what looks good for the regime, not reality. Of course you won't believe any of that. To you, fidel is perfect. In reality, for you, he is, without him......

[Organicgrowth]

I also read that he had Parkinsons.

Life expectancy in Cuba is ranked as 50th in the world, and at 73.84 years for men (78.73 years for women). Our bearded friend is now 80 years old. He has exceeded his countries average. I wish him a few more years.

I say this of course, ignoring any “wrong doings” we may point in his direction; but then which politician / country leader is innocent?

Mr. Arbusto, ex-alcoholic, bible thumper and common electoral cheat is guiltier of even more heinous crimes against humanity than the bearded one…

I wonder which of these two leaders is responsible for more unnecessary deaths?

Regards, Havanaman

[Thaj Todad]

for somebody with parkinsons he sure hides it pretty well. yesterday in front of the comite he spoke for over 3 and 1/2 hours straight, and then made a 1 hour speech in the plaza de la revolucion. spoke to my auntee last night, and she agreed with me, he has a few more years in him. his homosexual brother will probably die or get assasinated before he does, so the waiting game continues.

[Petrolero]

in the first two weeks of oct, a live shot of castro was no where to be found. cuban tv resorted to taped fluff 10 second pieces of everyone's daddy, sporting a warm smile in front of the kids.

i found out in oct from reliable cuban sources, the old man had a brain aneurysm. in a carpeted media story today, we discover the us government has settled on parkinson's disease, with a information lag time of 4-6 weeks.

castro was back in a seat for the tv roundtable discussion about wilma. he hijacked the chat about wilma and turned it into a personal anti-usa rant about everything under the sun, moon, and stars of new orleans.

it was fitting the electric was cut off, and cut him off at 9:30pm, sunday, oct 23. little did he know, he had his own flooding, housing, food, and electric problems on the horizon.

the was no food in the markets for peso cubano, cup for 3 days, in a non-flooded area. the weekend after the storm in vedado, the only food available was bread, cream cheese, and cookies in divisa, cuc.

posted on wed, nov. 16, 2005
castro has parkinson's disease, cia has concluded

two officials said the cia is convinced that cuban leader fidel castro suffers from parkinson's disease. the agency has made a point of alerting u.s. policymakers.

by pablo bachelet and frances robles
pbachelet@herald.com

washington - the cia has alerted policymakers over the potential eroding of fidel castro's health.

the cia recently concluded that cuban leader fidel castro suffers from parkinson's disease and has warned u.s. policymakers to be ready for trouble if the 79-year-old ruler's health erodes over the next few years.

if true, the cia's assessment of the nonfatal but debilitating condition would mean castro may be entering a period where doctors say the symptoms grow more evident, medicines are less effective and mental functions start to deteriorate.

although castro's brother raúl, head of the armed forces, has been anointed as his successor, cuba analysts fear the possibility of a tumultuous period during which an incapacitated castro refuses to give up power but can no longer project his overpowering personality to cuba's 11 million people.

''for fidel to start shaking in a real and substantial way -- in public -- sends quite a powerful message to people around the world,'' said frank o. mora, a professor of national security strategy at the national war college.

rumors that castro suffers from parkinson's have been around since the mid-1990s. in 1998, he even jokingly challenged journalists to a pistol duel at 25 paces to show the steadiness of his hands.

but the central intelligence agency began briefing senior members of the state department and lawmakers about one year ago that its doctors had become convinced that castro was diagnosed with the disease around 1998, said two longtime government officials familiar with the briefings. both asked for anonymity because leaking the contents of the classified briefing could violate u.s. laws.

''about one year ago, we started seeing some pretty definitive stuff that he had parkinson's,'' said one of them.

there has been no independent confirmation of castro's illness, or any indication of how the cia came to its conclusion. the state department and the cia declined to comment for this story.

but one state department official said there is already evidence that castro's abilities are fading noticeably. he is increasingly slurring his words and going off on tangents in public speeches, although he seems to have good days and bad days. clearly, ''he is not the same person he was five years ago,'' added the official.

others insist that castro is fine, however. ''he enjoys excellent health,'' ricardo alarcón, president of cuba's national assembly, said last month after he was asked about castro's failure to attend the ibero-american summit in spain.

parkinson's symptoms include tremors, stiffness, difficulty with balance and muffled speech, although its exact manifestations vary according to the victim. high-profile individuals stricken with the disease include the late pope john paul ii, former u.s. attorney general janet reno, actor michael j. fox and boxer muhammad ali.

dr. carlos singer, a parkinson's expert at the university of miami, said the disease on average cuts short the lifespan of a patient only by one or two years. ''the issue is not as much how long they can live, it is how much do they suffer in the process,'' he said.

the first five to eight years usually are ''manageable with relatively small doses of medication,'' singer said. after that, symptoms such as stooped postures and difficulties with balance become more evident. and in the advanced stages, about 40 percent of patients develop what one specialist on the disease called ``basically an overall decline in cognitive functions.''

drug eases symptoms

the main drug to ease the symptoms of the disease is levodopa, which replenishes the brain with the dopamine chemical that is deficient in parkinson's. patients can program their activities around the periods when the drug is taking effect, known to doctors as ''on periods.'' but over time, the drug loses its effectiveness.

''as the disease slowly progresses, the medications have to be taken more frequently, at higher doses,'' said paul larson, a neurosurgeon and parkinson's specialist at the university of california, san francisco. 'but you eventually reach a point where the patient is fluctuating between an `on period' and an 'off period' so frequently that you can't, in essence, keep up with just medications.''

possible side effects of levodopa are involuntary movements and facial grimaces, as well as visual hallucinations. as both parkinson's and the drug can cause blood pressure to drop, patients can sometimes faint, singer said.

fainted, nodded off

castro has displayed some signs of ill health in recent years, though perhaps no worse than other 79-year-olds.

castro fainted during a speech in a havana suburb in 2001 and was seen almost collapsing during the inauguration of argentine president néstor kirchner in 2003. a public tumble last year left him with a fractured knee and arm, and former ecuador president lucio gutiérrez wrote in his recent book that he had to prop up a nodding-off castro several times while sitting next to him at an international event.

cuba watchers also noted castro was not shown touring the areas of havana hit by hurricane wilma, something out of character for a man who has personally managed every crisis in cuba since taking power in early 1959, from the 1961 bay of pigs invasion to the elián gonzález affair in 2000.

for u.s. policymakers, the report that castro may suffer from parkinson's has sparked concerns about cuba's political stability down the road.

''it's going to be harder for fidel to go out and perform, and he's been performing the guerrilla theater for 50 years,'' said brian latell, a retired cia analyst on cuba. latell is the author of after fidel, a new book about castro and his brother raúl, the world's longest-serving defense minister and the sole designated successor of castro.

larger questions

damián fernández, director of florida international university's cuban research institute, said the larger questions are how castro's subordinates would react to his mental or physical erosion, and how that could affect raúl's role as cuba's no. 2.

''i envision raúl trying to forge key alliances with subordinates in the military and among civilians to rule very tightly,'' he said. ''but i don't know how this could sustain itself without delivering benefits'' to the cuban people.

that's assuming that raúl, 74, does not die before his brother. that would leave fidel without a clear successor and the powerful military, now controlled by the younger brother, without a widely recognized or respected leader.

the result might be political turmoil as senior government officials jockey for power with a fidel castro too infirm to make vital decisions.

''the revolution could be hanging by a thread,'' latell said.

but that may be some time away. during his recent tv interview with argentine soccer star diego maradona, castro said that rumors of his health were so frequent that ``the day that i die, nobody is going to believe it.''

[Petrolero]

Nicaragua's Creeping Coup
Monday, October 3, 2005; Page A16
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...100200818.html

MANY PEOPLE outside Latin America probably assume Daniel Ortega's political career ended 15 years ago when his ruinous attempt to install a Marxist dictatorship in Nicaragua ended with an election he decisively lost. The slightly better informed might suppose that his two subsequent electoral defeats, the allegations of corruption and child molestation that haunt him, or his single-digit rating in opinion polls have made him a marginal figure in Nicaraguan politics. Sadly, the truth is otherwise: Thanks to the weakness of the country's new democratic institutions, Mr. Ortega is close to regaining power and to broadening the Latin alliance of undemocratic states now composed by Cuba and Venezuela.

Mr. Ortega's comeback has been accomplished through a brazenly corrupt alliance with a former right-wing president, Arnoldo Aleman, who was sentenced to 20 years in prison in 2003 for looting the national treasury. Mr. Ortega's Sandinista Party supported the prosecution, then abruptly switched sides and formed a pact with Mr. Aleman against President Enrique Bolanos, a member of Mr. Aleman's Liberal Party who bravely chose to tackle government corruption. The left-right alliance has used its majority in the National Assembly to rewrite the constitution and stack the Supreme Court. In the past week it has begun stripping the members of Mr. Bolanos's cabinet of immunity so that they can be prosecuted before Sandinista judges on bogus charges. If this power play succeeds, Mr. Bolanos will be next. Meanwhile, Mr. Aleman, who stole tens of millions from one of Latin America's poorest countries, was freed from house arrest last week.

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Mr. Ortega's goal is to force Mr. Bolanos to accept his constitutional rewrite, which transfers almost all presidential powers to Congress. That would effectively deliver Nicaragua to Sandinista control without one of the elections that Mr. Ortega keeps losing. Scheduled elections next year could then be manipulated. Already, the corrupt alliance has lowered the percentage of the vote a presidential candidate needs to be elected to 35, and criminal charges have been brought against one of the leading candidates. The Sandinistas will have plenty of money to spend, thanks to Hugo Chavez. Mr. Ortega recently announced that he had arranged with Venezuela's self-styled "Bolivarian revolutionary" for a supply of subsidized oil.

Compared with Mr. Chavez's aggressive intervention, attempts by the Bush administration and other outsiders to save Nicaraguan democracy so far look feckless. The new secretary general of the Organization of American States, Jose Miguel Insulza, tried to broker a political compromise but pronounced himself frustrated when Mr. Ortega ignored his appeals to stop undermining Mr. Bolanos's government. The Bush administration managed to win congressional passage of the Central American Free Trade Agreement this summer, but Mr. Ortega has blocked its ratification by Nicaragua.

Deputy Secretary of State Robert B. Zoellick is due to visit Managua this week in what officials say will be an attempt to bolster Mr. Bolanos and persuade Mr. Aleman's right-wing supporters to abandon their self-destructive alliance with the Sandinistas. As happens so often in Latin America during the Bush administration, high-level intervention arrives late. It does have one thing going for it: Eighty percent of Nicaraguans say they oppose the Ortega-Aleman pact. Nicaragua's rescue will depend on people power, inside or outside the polls.

[Organicgrowth]

I tend to look at ALL the news from as many places as possible before making my mind up. Its the only way we can get to the "truth": not just the "truth" according to the speaker. Heres some interesting news:

From: http://www.aljazeera.com/cgi-bin/rev...ervice_ID=9652


Undeclared war on Cuba
9/30/2005 2:30:00 PM GMT


"It is unfounded, unfair, and, moreover, deeply illegal"

The number of Americans travelling to Cuba has dropped dramatically, also the number of those the U.S, government fines for visiting the island without permission is on the rise.The Cuban government has launched its annual international campaign against the illegal U.S. embargo, which prohibits all trade between the two countries except for the sale to Cuba of some U.S. food and medicineExpressing grieve for the impact the embargo left on Cuba, Vice Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla said:"We are talking about an economic war against our country," Rodriguez said."It is unfounded, unfair, and, moreover, deeply illegal."Cuba lost $82-billion in trade since 1960 when the U.S. first imposed the embargo a year after the Cuban revolution thrust Fidel Castro into power.The embargo prohibits any third-country nation doing business with the island. Economists say that if the sanctions are lifted that would bring up to 100 000 new jobs to the country and increased revenues of $6-billion a year. Criminal penalties for violating the embargo range up to ten years in prison, $1 million in corporate fines, and $250,000 in individual fines; civil penalties up to $55,000 per violation may also be imposed.Commenting on the drop in the number of those travelling from the U.S. to Cuba, Rodriguez said visits to the island by Cuban-Americans are down by almost 50%, with 40% fewer other Americans coming.A report released ahead of an upcoming vote on the embargo at the United Nations revealed 57 145 Cuban-Americans returned to visit their native country last year compared with 115 050 in 2003. While the number of non- American tourists went from 85 809 in 2003 to 51 027 last year, the report said, adding that the numbers continued to decrease in 2005.At the same time, those who defy U.S. travel restrictions are more likely to be fined under Bush's government, according to the report.In Q1 2005, the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control fined 307 Americans for unauthorized travel to Cuba, the report said.The embargo, which was originally imposed with the aim of preventing Castro's socialist program from succeeding and serving as a model for other Latin American countries, thus having a domino effect, has been criticised by numerous analysts who said that it has proved its failure since Castro is still in power and the nation is still communist. And although China and Vietnam are also communist nations, the United States still trades with them. Critics say that Washington’s policy hurts average Cubans more than Castro.If the American public knew how much hardship the embargo caused Cubans in their daily life, they would surely demand its end, Rodriguez said.Any company that has business with Cuba is barred from dealing with the United States, and thus, companies are forced to choose between dealing with Cuba or the United States, a much stronger market. The U.S. embargo has been condemned by the UN General Assembly for the 13th time in 2004. Last year's UN resolution calling for the embargo to be lifted was approved by a vote of 179-4, the U.S., Israel, the Marshall Islands and Palau were the only states rejecting the resolution.The only trading partners of Cuba are: Spain, Venezuela, the Netherlands and Canada. Source: Mail&Guardian

[Patentguy]

I was in cuba at the end of May for a week. 8 guys on a bachelor party with a tour guide. We had a great time. I highly recommend going to any of the beaches in Havanna to meet girls. They are all approachable and you can usually take them home with you after about 10-30 minutes of conversations. The girls at the clubs are too aggressive and too much like pros but I guess it depends on your taste. Often girls you see walking around are not pros that work on a daily basis but would be willing to get together if you talk the time to show interest. Speaking poor spanish seems to be a plus!

[Organicgrowth]

Apart from everything else happening, the human spirit lives on and so does the spirit of adventure. 90 miles may not look like much, in the global view, however it’s still far away!

http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0...367111,00.html


THE REFUGEE WATER TAXI

When a group of Cuban refugees decided to make for America's shores, how to get there was simple - they hailed a cab!Actually, they made it themselves, converting a vintage blue American taxi into a boat and setting sail.Thirteen people, including two children, attempted the 90-mile ocean crossing.Rafael Diaz, 40, and his friends had spent weeks converting the 1949 Mercury.His aunt, who lives in Miami, said they water-proofed it by welding shut the doors.Mastic compound was used to reinforce the seals. A large buoyancy tank shaped like a prow was welded on the front and empty oil drums were put in the boot for added buoyancy.

An outboard motor was attached to the rear bumper and the front wheels provided basic directional control.The immigrants were intercepted by US Coast Guards just 20 miles off Florida.If they had been successful their taxi, a sought-after vehicle in the States, would have fetched thousands of pounds.Old American cars are still common in Cuba, since the US banned exports to the communist island.Previous bids to get to America have involved converted fridges and bathtubs.

[Doc Bill]

a legacy of dysfunction:
cuba after fidel


abstract when fidel castro departs, cuba will reach a crossroads. a post-castro regime that attempts to remain communist may find itself in a cul-de-sac where old policies and instruments no longer work. if such a regime should falter, a democratic-leaning replacement government is only a remote possibility. the country will face severe and simultaneous challenges on several fronts: an alienated younger generation, a growing racial divide, an aging population, and a deformed economy. cuba’s civil-society and market actors appear to be too embryonic, and democratic political opposition forces too decimated, for democracy to take hold naturally. more likely the military, arguably cuba’s most important institution, will take control.

edward gonzalez, kevin f. mccarthy
rand corporation *
infosearch:
josé cadenas
research dept.
la nueva cuba
may 3, 2005



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now in his late seventies, fidel castro is nearing the end of his political career after more than 45 years in power. once cuba’s communist caudillo — or strongman — departs, his successors will be saddled with daunting political, social, demographic, and economic problems — in short, a vast array of dysfunctional legacies from the fidelista past.

so concludes a recent study overseen by rand corporation researchers edward gonzalez and kevin mccarthy. drawing upon experts within and outside rand, their comprehensive study identifies five major problem areas, some of them of the regime’s own making and others structural in nature, which either have been worsened or are left unresolved under castro’s long tenure.

legacies of caudilloism and totalitarianism

the collapse of the soviet union in 1991 removed or eroded three of the cuban regime’s four pillars of support — soviet largesse, the “revolution” and the social compact it represented for ordinary cubans, and the once omnipotent totalitarian state apparatus. only “fidel,” the founder of the revolution, remains, but once he is gone a communist successor regime will be without its ruling caudillo and remaining source of legitimacy at a time of mounting crises.

the loss of soviet economic support led to the “special period” of heightened austerity in cuba that continues to this day, and to other severe economic and social dislocations, all of which have eroded popular support for the regime. the near collapse of the island’s economy in the early 1990s also weakened the totalitarian state’s grip over society as cubans engaged increasingly in black market and other illicit activities to survive, while still others pressed for greater economic, social, and political freedom. as a result, cuba’s post-totalitarian state saw signs of an embryonic civil society and even challenges to the regime’s lock on political power. thus, in 2002, the varela project gathered more than 11,000 signatures petitioning the government to enact political and economic reforms.

the castro regime reverted to its totalitarian impulses in march 2003. in sentencing 75 dissidents, independent journalists, and other activists to prison terms ranging from 6 to 28 years, it decapitated an emerging civil society of its potential leadership. together with castro’s practice of caudilloism, this legacy of totalitarianism will leave post-castro cuba without the rule of law and other requisites needed to restrain the power of the state, promote a market economy, and foster civil-society organizations that help sustain democracy.

alienated youth

castro’s revolution has drawn much support from the young, and the regime has looked to cuba’s youth as the future promise of the revolution. but relations between the state and cuba’s youth deteriorated throughout the 1990s, as the young faced new levels of austerity, few opportunities for upward mobility, and a host of unfulfilled aspirations. the result has been a disaffected youth, whose retreat from politics may pose problems for not only a successor communist regime but also a democratically oriented one, because each would lack support from this pivotal, alienated sector.

a festering racial divide

after much progress toward erasing racial inequalities, race-based discrimination and inequalities rose sharply in the 1990s. while most cubans have suffered from the special period’s austerity, afro-cubans — especially blacks — have fared the worst. heavily concentrated in the island’s poorest easternmost provinces, afro-cubans have benefited less from tourism and the other activities of the new economy. compared with whites, afro-cubans receive fewer dollar remittances from abroad, are less likely to be small peasant farmers able to sell surplus produce for hard currency, and largely are excluded from lucrative tourist sector jobs. any successor government will have to better the lot of afro-cubans substantially to retain the support they historically have provided to castro.

an emerging demographic bind

in contrast to its living standards, which are more typical of less-developed countries, cuba’s population structure resembles that of the high-income developed world. this contrast will pose a daunting challenge because cuba’s population is rapidly aging just as the supply of young workers is shrinking.

cuba’s population over the next two decades will decline by 22 percent in each of three age groups (0-4, 5-19, and 20-44), while its census of mature working-age individuals (45-64) and pensioners (65-plus) will jump 70 percent or more. this demographic squeeze between the pension and social service needs of a growing elderly population and a declining labor force will make it very difficult for castro’s successors to continue to support the extensive social services that have historically been one of the real accomplishments of the revolution.

deformed economic institutions and an obsolete and inefficient sugar industry
faced with a severe economic contraction in the early 1990s, the castro regime was compelled to enact a few limited economic reforms. but to transition into a global economy, any post-castro government will need to go much further if it is to overcome systemic problems in the following four economic areas:

unproductive labor. cuba’s labor force is highly educated but unproductive, a situation exacerbated by the state’s commitment to full employment and to a national pay schedule. despite the closure of 45 percent of the island’s most inefficient sugar mills in 2002, the castro regime has kept the displaced workers on the state payroll. the national pay schedule has divorced workers’ wages from their productivity, a policy that has created disincentives among the labor force. the new regime will be faced with a long-term task of motivating workers anew through market incentives.

repressed, deformed private sector. after 40-plus years of communism, cuba’s labor force lacks the trained managers, accountants, auditors, bankers, insurers, and other professionals that a robust market economy requires. in 2001, there were only 150,000 micro-enterprises in cuba, a number that had fallen by one-quarter from four years earlier.

corrupt society and state. corruption and favoritism are commonplace in cuba. most materials on the black market are stolen or misappropriated from state enterprises and warehouses. inside deals between individuals and their government contacts are also commonplace.

postponed economic restructuring. cuba also suffers from a distorted industrial structure that is a legacy of its nearly three decades of economic dependence on the soviet union. during that period, cuba concentrated on producing sugar, which it exported to the ussr at exorbitant prices, and relied on imports of soviet oil at well below world market prices. despite the restructuring of the sugar industry that began in 2002, production has plummeted, and a new government will be faced with further scaling down the industry, introducing efficiency measures, and developing a more balanced industrial structure.

cuba’s problematic future and the military’s indeterminate role
cuba’s problems are interconnected and will pose difficult policy choices for any post-castro government. given the internal and external challenges facing a successor regime, and the likelihood that an immediate successor communist regime will be unwilling or unable to introduce the reforms necessary to overcome those challenges, the cuban armed forces (far) are certain to play an important role in the post-castro transition. how constructive far’s role will be remains to be seen, but likely it will be contingent not only on post-castro succession dynamics at play within cuba but also on u.s. policy and the actions of the cuban-american community.


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this product is part of the rand corporation research brief series. rand research briefs present policy-oriented summaries of individual published, peer-reviewed documents or of a body of published work.

this research brief describes work documented in cuba after castro: legacies, challenges, and impediments by edward gonzalez and kevin f. mccarthy, mg-111-rc, 2004, 150 pages, isbn: 0-8330-3535-5 (full document) and cuba after castro: legacies, challenges, and impediments: appendices by edward gonzalez and kevin f. mccarthy, tr-131-rc, 2004, 216 pages, isbn: 0-8330-3573-8 (full document). these documents are available by clicking above or through rand distribution services (phone: 310-451-7002; toll free: 877-584-8642).

copyright © 2004 rand corporation

the rand corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. rand’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.

rb-9041-rc (2004)





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copyright © 1997-2005 - la nueva cuba
all rights reserved.

[Petrolero]

DeLay allows him to run the House floor on all matters Cuba. He controls the time, decides who will speak, and for how long. Miami controls Cuba policy with Republicans.

Bill Nelson, a vulnerable first term Dem, isn't any different on Cuba policy. In the Bolton hearings, all he wanted to talk about was Cuba. To prove, no Rep will right flank him on tough Cuba policy.

[Doc Bill]

RM, I'm going to respectfully disagree, based on my studies, but as always I appreciate the dialogue. If only Miami and Havana could do it as well, we wouldn't even be having to have this discussion.

On an unrelated note I just read today that Mario Diaz-Balart, congressman from Miami (and relative of Fidel's ex wife) had donated $5000 to Tom DeLay's legal defense fund. Need I say more?

[Rebel Monger]

And with all respect to you as an individual the Cuban-American community has been terrible to their brethren in Cuba since the Revolution, particularly by supporting and maintaining an ineffective embargo that only serves to hurt the Cuban people and has ironically kept Fidel in power all these years. See the latest: Thanks to your congressmen from Miami people can't even send money to or visit their relatives much anymore.

I may not be qualified to speak to this as I am not Cuban or Cuban-American, but I think that if they really cared they would end the embargo, send shiploads and planeloads of tourists to Cuba and watch Castro's house of cards disintegrate in no time.

Yes, I would love to see the embargo lifted, so fidel Castro can "borrow" money from USA (like he's been doing with every country) and not paying it back! About the shipload and planeload of tourists, well, you don't seem to know Fidel. Do you think that he would allow something that would compromise his power!? There's no embargo in other countries and I don't see those shiploads and planeloads from those countries being sent there. You send to Cuba what fidel allows. Could you go to Cuba before the fall of the USSR?

You don't know Fidel and how things work in Cuba. But that's understandable if my assumption is right: you've lived all your live as a free man in a democracy. Things are a little bit different in a totalitarian dictatorship.

P.S.: I come here to talk about women and no politics, but sometimes my Cuban side takes over and I can't help it. So, this is it. If you think that Mambises were black, so be it!

Be safe and healthy, ok Doc!?