Philippines History and Politics

[Red Kilt]

. He noted Conrado de Quiros, the Inquirer columnist, as a rare exception. I have sometimes enjoyed reading Conrado's columns but have found him lately a little too romantically attached to Noynoy. I feel that by casting Philippine social dynamics in terms of good guys (Noynoy) and bad guys (GMA and associates) , he loses the ability to probe the social context for its influence on political actors' "good" and "bad" actions. I also wish Conrado would post a current photo that shows him for the 70ish man he is. He and his wife are major players in the cooperative that created the Conspiracy nightclub on Visayas Avenue in Quezon City. He's frequently there early in the evening if anybody wants to meet him. Just look for a guy with a long gray ponytail and a face about 40 years older than his photo in the Inquirer.

Nobody takes much notice of anything poor old Conrad says these days, especially the movers and shakers.

He has let his passion for doing good get in the way of good journalism, and he is now seen as indulging in his all too regular "rants" against GMA, the Church and assorted protagonists from his past days as a student activist during martial law days with very little data of substance to back them up.

He used to be much better.

Most of the other journalists do some good detective work and ferret out some data. It is rare to read any research in Conrado's articles these days. I also find his journaistic "style" irritating, and his columns over the past 2 or 3 years have become very disjointed.

[Soapy Smith]

I'm in my 60's as well Skip, sand searching for the synaptic equivalent of Viagra. GE

In my case, it's about memory loss, but also attention deficit disorder. The signposts of my ADD are all over ISG Philippine board in the form of long-winded social commentaries that sometimes go far afield of the pussy-chasing that most guys come here to read about.

In any case, I'm putting this observation here-since the thread has been dormant since April and because here it's less likely to annoy some of our more single-minded brethren.

GE observed in a recent post in the General Info thread that Filipinos are generally afraid to take on the Church in public. He noted Conrado de Quiros, the Inquirer columnist, as a rare exception. I have sometimes enjoyed reading Conrado's columns but have found him lately a little too romantically attached to Noynoy. I feel that by casting Philippine social dynamics in terms of good guys (Noynoy) and bad guys (GMA and associates) , he loses the ability to probe the social context for its influence on political actors' "good" and "bad" actions. I also wish Conrado would post a current photo that shows him for the 70ish man he is. He and his wife are major players in the cooperative that created the Conspiracy nightclub on Visayas Avenue in Quezon City. He's frequently there early in the evening if anybody wants to meet him. Just look for a guy with a long gray ponytail and a face about 40 years older than his photo in the Inquirer.

I personally prefer the columns of Randy David, which appear only on Saturdays. He is similarly unafraid to take on hallowed Philippine institutions, although he does so in a way that's a little less confrontational than de Quiros. David's writing is invariably strongly rooted in historical analysis. He comes by it honestly. His wife, Karina Constantino-David, is the daughter of Renato and Letizia Constantino, who wrote two well-regarded books that present a Filipino-centered history of the Philippines-as opposed to histories written by Jesuits, Spaniards, and Americans. Their books are not afraid to tell the brutal aspects of the Church's history in the Philippines. For a quick read-that unfortunately romanticizes the role of the Church-check out Jose Arcilla's *An Introduction to Philippine History. For a much more detailed and critical account, read the Constantinos' books: *The Philippines: A Past Revisited* and *The Philippines: The Continuing Past. BTW, Randy David does look like his Inquirer photo.

[GoodEnough]

Whew I was hoping for that Skip, GE et al.

Normal business can now resume.

Ah but it was fun while it lasted. I'm in my 60's as well Skip, sand searching for the synaptic equivalent of Viagra. Thanks to all who participated.

GE

[Red Kilt]

I'm not foreseeing too many slow days over the next week, and so I've been sort of looking for the bottom line. I think you may have hit it.

Whew I was hoping for that Skip, GE et al.

Normal business can now resume.

[Soapy Smith]

We may have taken this as far as we can GE

I know we have to consider stratified sampling, but my inclination is that we need a more inductive, exploratory approach initially to figure out what these major stratifying factors are. But I'm in my 60s, and I know there's danger in an inductive approach – of wandering off on some tangent and forgetting why in hell we're doing it or just simply losing our staying power. As far as I know they don't make any little blue or yellow pills for sustaining research projects or any kind of work that depends on memory and rapidly firing synapses. (Some forms of rapid firing just seem to attract more attention when it comes to pharmaceutical research.) Every study has its limitations, but this could be downright fatal.

I'm not foreseeing too many slow days over the next week, and so I've been sort of looking for the bottom line. I think you may have hit it.

[Soapy Smith]

U can always try the Soros Institute for new economic thinking. If you go ahead with it I want in.

http://ineteconomics.org/initiatives/grants

Considering the the cross-section of proposals they probably get to review, this one would blow their minds. I'd love to be a fly on the wall to hear their reaction to this one.

[Mc Don]

U can always try the Soros Institute for new economic thinking. If you go ahead with it I want in.

http://ineteconomics.org/initiatives/grants

He Institute for New Economic Thinking awards individual research grants for original work that can't get sponsored elsewhere, and funds a series of Task Forces focused on critical issues that demand sustained work by many people over time.

INET releases two cycles of grants every year, and each individual grant will support significant work that could last more than a year. The process is open to anyone with a big idea that could help move the field of economics, though most awards will go to those working in academia.

The first grants were awarded in the fall of 2010 to a diverse range of recipients focused on a wide range of topics. You can read about the Inaugural Grants projects here.

Currently, INET is reviewing applications for its second grants cycle. Please note that the deadline for applications has passed for this round of grants.

Generally, INET is interested in funding work that breaks new ground in one or more of the following fields:

* Sources and remedies of financial instability.

* Institutional design for radical (Knightian) uncertainty.

* Political economy of the state and public goods provision.

* Political economy of income and wealth distribution.

* Corporate governance in an age of economic globalization.

* Human capability and economic development.

We understand that new economic thinking can come from anywhere and so we remain open to grant proposals outside these fields and from people outside academia, though the awards will primarily go to individuals or teams affiliated with academic institutions, think tanks and other research centers.

For more information, please click here.

Well, if we're going to control for variability in living arrangements, then we've got to consider those as one of our stratification variables. The we'll need to add type of employment status: full or part-time; bar, street, KTV, massage parlor, escort service, etc. Through in mothers and not-yet-mothers, and we've got two more, and then I guess, to be fair, we should also stratify by age category. This will drive our sample size still higher, but what the hell it's our fantasy and we can do whatever we want with it.

If Krugman doesn't have sufficient cachet in the mongering community, Sachs might be a good alternative, though many may not have heard of him either and I'm not sure that Popular Mechanics or Guns and' Ammo have staff economists.

Siince we cannot possibly ennumerate all of the multiplier patterns, much less the reverse distribution patterns and sequences, we'll probably have to be content with a short hierarchy of possibilities while noting we haven't captured the universe. Sad, but every study has limitations.

We may have taken this as far as we can prior to writing the grant proposal and identifying potential funding sources. Wonder if the Gates Foundation would be interested, given that the results will probably be generalizable to lots of poor countries with similar socio-economic indicators.

GE

[GoodEnough]

Well, if we're going to control for variability in living arrangements, then we've got to consider those as one of our stratification variables. The we'll need to add type of employment status: full or part-time; bar, street, KTV, massage parlor, escort service, etc. Through in mothers and not-yet-mothers, and we've got two more, and then I guess, to be fair, we should also stratify by age category. This will drive our sample size still higher, but what the hell it's our fantasy and we can do whatever we want with it.

If Krugman doesn't have sufficient cachet in the mongering community, Sachs might be a good alternative, though many may not have heard of him either and I'm not sure that Popular Mechanics or Guns and' Ammo have staff economists.

Siince we cannot possibly ennumerate all of the multiplier patterns, much less the reverse distribution patterns and sequences, we'll probably have to be content with a short hierarchy of possibilities while noting we haven't captured the universe. Sad, but every study has limitations.

We may have taken this as far as we can prior to writing the grant proposal and identifying potential funding sources. Wonder if the Gates Foundation would be interested, given that the results will probably be generalizable to lots of poor countries with similar socio-economic indicators.

GE

[Soapy Smith]

My assumption though would be there would not be a broad diversity of points of view.

Yes, the large sample size is a problem, since we probably couldn't pay for an adequate number of field interviewers. I'm guessing though that we could attract a reasonable number of volunteers by pitching this among mongers as a study that will expand the frontiers of economic theory as we know it. I'm thinking Paul Krugman might even feature us in a New York Times column if we couch the hypothesis in strictly social science terms. GE

I agree there's unlikely to be many diverse viewpoints regarding what happens in the two basic exchanges, money and bodily fluids. But I think there might be a variety of living arrangements among the girls. In Manila, for example, there are some who are essentially locals, others who ride buses or jeepneys in from nearby provinces, and still others from more distant provinces who camp out with some of the local girls or share a small, squalid room in which they take turns sleeping. Occasionally we even hear of a coed who decides to turn a trick or two to tide herself over in lean times. So, as a working hypothesis, I think there might be a number of different redistribution and multiplier patterns among the working girls. There's also the unique set of converse redistribution dynamics that occur when the girl ends up with a bun in the oven or a disease as a result of the non-monetary exchange.

My hunch is that few of those who already have a familiarity with our field sites would be readers of Paul Krugman's columns or anything else in the Times. And if we aim for ESPN, Outdoor Life, or Penthouse / Hustler kinds of outlets to recruit volunteers, it will be difficult to build any semblance of scientific aura around our study. (Although I had thought of Larry Flynt as a possible anonymous funding source.) Perhaps a middle ground would be some of the cable "so called" news channels. There's a development economist named Jeffrey Sachs who has been getting a lot of air time lately, and the broadcast people probably like him because he's a prettier face than Paul Krugman. I think that Sachs is the sort of "popular press" intellectual that politicians like to hang out with, so he brings the potential for connection to influence networks in addition to media exposure.

[GoodEnough]

Skip, I wasn't aware that heterogeneity among bar girls was possible, but I'm always willing to learn. My assumption though would be there would not be a broad diversity of points of view.

Yes, the large sample size is a problem, since we probably couldn't pay for an adequate number of field interviewers. I'm guessing though that we could attract a reasonable number of volunteers by pitching this among mongers as a study that will expand the frontiers of economic theory as we know it. I'm thinking Paul Krugman might even feature us in a New York Times column if we couch the hypothesis in strictly social science terms.

GE

[Soapy Smith]

Of course, focus group discussions are another possibility, and it would take even more time to identify women who work well together in small groups.

We would need a lot of guys helping out with the field research. GE

I've just come off a period of about 36 hours of very busy work, RK, but I am now back to a slow day.

Conventional wisdom for focus groups is that a heterogeneous group of participants is likely to provide greater variety of perspectives, and the diversity can actually draw out opposing points of view. But we might need to make some cultural adjustments. First, we do not want to draw out really starkly opposing viewpoints in a group of working girls unless we want all hell to break loose. And if we post too much Jerry Springer type muscle around the group, it will definitely inhibit spontaneous participation. Second, a heterogeneous group and conflicting points of view, especially in a culture that avoids losing face and causing others to lose face, will end in group silence if it doesn't end up in violence. So, setting aside conventional wisdom, we will probably have to settle for a homogeneous group of participants and lots of dull agreement among the participants.

GE, I agree with your strategy to drive statistical significance with a large sample, but assuming a limited budget, we might need to train a lot of these guys to be unpaid volunteer interviewers.

[Soapy Smith]

I could see Al Pacino playing the world weary, cynical monger who has intermittent outbursts of kindness. GE

And since he once played a blind man in a movie, he could really relate to some of the "special needs" women, like the deaf mute with great reputation for bjs who was a fixture at LA Cafe for three or four years.

[Irony Monger]

I could see Al Pacino playing the world weary, cynical monger who has intermittent outbursts of kindness.

I hear Charlie Sheen is looking for work. He could be the world weary monger's incoherent wingman / foil who has intermittent bursts of lucidity.

[GoodEnough]

I think the only way for us to identify an appropriate number of effective key informants is to spend a long time in various bars, carefully observing candidates,"testing them," engaging-during post coital languor-in probing questions, and then making a selection. Of course, focus group discussions are another possibility, and it would take even more time to identify women who work well together in small groups.

We would need, I think, at least 6 months to winnow the sample to an appropriate mix. Of course, we would have to estimate the size of the universe to compute a rough sample size, and that would take even more work. Since we want a robust sample and and a believable confidence interval we'd probably need a fairly large sample, which means we would need a lot of guys helping out with the field research.

How cool is this?

GE

[Red Kilt]

Many field researchers advise doing the field observation first, and using these observations to identify "key informants" to interview, that is, individuals who seem to be most knowledgeable or most experienced in the setting under observation. But I think we might have a built in sampling bias, in that, anticipating the actual soul-baring interview situation, many of us might employ criteria other than most knowledgeable and most experienced in choosing key informants for interviewing.

I am sure Skip, GE and others must have had great difficulty eating breakfast and lunch today because their tongues must be so firmly buried in their cheeks that they look rather odd to an observer.

I thought this was a light-hearted joke, but then a lot of energy was invested in a few posts describing a serious research "proposal" with a broad framework so I started to wonder. Now I am really bemused.

Please tell me you guys are having a really slow day and that tomorrow things will be back to normal? Please?

LOL.