German AO Lounge and Chat Area!

[Neurosynth]

STD-statistics: Comparing the risk of getting a STD in a AO place with a "normal" situation, is like comparing risk of getting killed in a terrorist attack in Kabul with the risk of same in a suburb in Toronto.

If that's a reference to my posts below it's worth noting that I was not calculating the odds of a client getting an HIV infection. It's a calculation of how much exposure a provider faces, and how likely it is they would become HIV infected due to their work.

[Gunnar2000]

Not sure how to spell the STD's name, but still.

There is not only hiv to worry about. There are some multi-resistent bacteria out there that you don't want to get. How about spending the rest of your life with non-treatable gonorrhea? Or giving the same thing to another person?

If I was a provider, the only thing that might make me go AO, is if I already had something and it was too late to worry anyways.

STD-statistics: Comparing the risk of getting a STD in a AO place with a "normal" situation, is like comparing risk of getting killed in a terrorist attack in Kabul with the risk of same in a suburb in Toronto.

Morally, I am halfway fine with it as long as the girls have made an informed choice. But I have a gut feeling that most of them either don't know the risks, or for some reason feel compelled to do it. Or they already have something.

[Optimist]

What's happening here? I still see a lot of advertisements for AO traffic that is supposedly verboten and there's no camera involved. Is there a grace period before these new laws are actually enforced?

No grace period. People are just trying their luck.

[CeeJay1]

What's happening here? I still see a lot of advertisements for AO traffic that is supposedly verboten and there's no camera involved. Is there a grace period before these new laws are actually enforced?

[Breadman]

I have gone from being in a position a few years ago when I was worried sick that I must have caught HIV if a condom slipped off during sex with a sex worker, to regularly visiting AO clubs and not being a nervous wreck when I take HIV tests.

However I have not lost sight of the fact that it is a highly dangerous sport, like motor racing or boxing, and people can die or suffer life changing consequences from indulging in it.

Can't agree more, was in the same boat myself. Went from CBJ to BBBJ with some concern and then moved on from there. At first if AO was given I'd lose the erection with all the thoughts going through my head, now its the other way around. I do think its odd though that people defend AO based on where they receive it geographically speaking. In Germany? That's ok, no diseases here. In Thailand? Your dick is going to fall off any second. Like the guy playing Russian roulette using bullets made in different countries will save him from the dreaded ending.

[Neurosynth]

"a woman would have to, on average, have unprotected sex with an HIV positive male 1,125 times to become infected".

However if you divide that 1125 number by 25 and again by 3 or 4 and then that number by half again you will get to a more realistic (single digit) figure of the number of times that a working girl will have to have sex to be most likely infected if she has sex with guys who have a few of the traits mentioned above.

As interesting as the contagion / time curve is, it's irrelevant to the one in 1,125 number. That's a real world empirical measure, and whatever effects there are, they are already baked into the number. So that number is anchored in the real world and doesn't move.

But you also picked an intermediate result out of the middle of the discussion. *Here* is the relevant statement:

"So how many random sessions would a German provider have to have in order to have a 50/50 chance of HIV infection? 1,125 * 4650 = 5,231,250 sessions. ".

Based on this I would not only not worry about AO, I would also encourage guys to buy a lottery ticket whenever they have a session.

[Neurosynth]

Whatever you think about the law, HIV is not the main concern. Disease is only one concern of many.

I wanted to respond directly to Myrrh who said:

"How many of these girls, most of them with young children, will decide the risk from AO sex is too much to bear when they are told by the doctor that the risks for a woman of catching HIV is 1 in x'00 AO encounters and they realise that this x number is far less than the total number of customers that they on average bareback a year. ".

In fact this isn't close to true, and the breakeven point is at least 1437 years of 10 sessions a day, every single day.

[Myrrh]

It's interesting to work the numbers here. And, yes, I'm using approximations and one can easily find second and third order factors that will throw this off a bit. For example, I'm assuming here only German men are involved. But I think it's a useful approximation nevertheless.

First, the odds of transmission for a positive male to a negative female is 8 in 10,000. So a woman would have to, on average, have unprotected sex with an HIV positive male 1,125 times to become infected.

Out of a population of 80.5 million Germans in 2009, 86,500 were infected with HIV. So on the average a woman would have to have sex with 930 men to encounter one with HIV.

But this assumes sampling from the general population. In Germany heterosexual transmission is only 20% of the total. So that would make it, on average, 4650 men to encounter one with HIV.

So how many random sessions would a German provider have to have in order to have a 50/50 chance of HIV infection? 1,125 * 4650 = 5,231,250 sessions.

Let's assume 10 sessions per day, 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year. That would still require a provider in Germany working 1437 years to have a 50/50 chance of acquiring HIV.

We don't want to re-open the whole HIV circular debate here again, although it looks weird to see someone actually discussing the subject in a thread which is directly related to the topic rather than just using a thread which happens to be the thread of your favourite club.

I have gone from being in a position a few years ago when I was worried sick that I must have caught HIV if a condom slipped off during sex with a sex worker, to regularly visiting AO clubs and not being a nervous wreck when I take HIV tests.

However I have not lost sight of the fact that it is a highly dangerous sport, like motor racing or boxing, and people can die or suffer life changing consequences from indulging in it.

I believe the media and the medical authorities when they say that there have been many cases where girls have been raped and got HIV from that one instance of sex; or that hetero sex is now the primary means of transmission of HIV in the UK (overtaking drugs and gay sex); or that hetero sexual infection rates are very high in several parts of the world. I am not naive enough to accept the arguments of some that it is just an elaborate conspiracy involving the whole of the medical profession.

HIV is probably not the only reason why the German authorities acted in bringing in the new law but I am sure that they wanted to head off a situation occurring like what there is in South Africa or Thailand with a consequential burden on the economic finances of the country.

I have done enough research on the topic to know that when someone has recently contracted HIV then their level of infectiousness goes through the roof, something like 25 times or more the normal rate. Also, if someone has contracted HIV then they most probably would have contracted other STD like gonorrhea or herpes and the HIV virus piggy backs on the back of these viruses to facilitate easier transmission. Guys who are having sex for 30 minutes with several girls in one week (or even one day) most likely will end up with sore dicks with cuts, abrasions and broken skin which again aids transmission.

"a woman would have to, on average, have unprotected sex with an HIV positive male 1,125 times to become infected".

However if you divide that 1125 number by 25 and again by 3 or 4 and then that number by half again you will get to a more realistic (single digit) figure of the number of times that a working girl will have to have sex to be most likely infected if she has sex with guys who have a few of the traits mentioned above.

Sometimes you get perfect storms. Several years back I read confirmed reports of how there was a mini-epidemic of HIV in the UK town of Doncaster which was traced back to one guy who contracted the virus and passed it on to several women who did the same to other guys as part of a promiscuous circle.

The same could happen with any of the well known AO clubs.

It is a question of luck, or lack of it, so the question is how lucky do you feel?

[Optimist]

You are still wrong. You seem to think that BBBJ is something which immigrants brought to Germany, like Pizza or Sushi, and was unknown in Germany previously. Not true.

Also, compared to neighbouring countries, the pressure to conform is lower in Germany than about everywhere else.

You attribute statements to me which I never said, and would never say, and then tell me I am wrong.

Again, I would never be so stupid as to think what you claim I am thinking. How come you condemn me on the basis of what you think I am thinking?

Shame. It could have been an interesting discussion

[SvenFKK]

However I'm afraid you totally misread my post. Absolutely misread. I said "conform" not " obey laws".You substituted what you think I said for what I actually said hence the misunderstanding. (The misunderstanding was abetted by my spellchecker changing "general" into "German" in the bit you quote: sorry about that

What I said wasn't that the current German zeitgeist was that immigrants should obey the law; I said it was that anyone staying in Germany was expected to CONFORM. The state is reducing the scope for nonconformity and things which were once acceptable are now being restricted because they don't conform with a myth the state has about the country.

You are still wrong. You seem to think that BBBJ is something which immigrants brought to Germany, like Pizza or Sushi, and was unknown in Germany previously. Not true.

Also, compared to neighbouring countries, the pressure to conform is lower in Germany than about everywhere else.

[SvenFKK]

Let's assume 10 sessions per day, 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year. That would still require a provider in Germany working 1437 years to have a 50/50 chance of acquiring HIV.

Whatever you think about the law, HIV is not the main concern. Disease is only one concern of many.

[Optimist]

Reading between the lines of a wave of advertising it seems that gangbang providers are deciding to chance their arm a bit (and I'm not talking about spermagames, spermastudio, and gb01 who we already know about). Given organisers willingness to continue in a very unobtrusive and discreet fashion, I guess it will depend on how the authorities decide to act, or not.

As nobody is offering "AO" then hopefully the politicians will feel they have done their bit. Unless the feminists leading the SPD ministry covering this area go on a crusade

[Neurosynth]

How many of these girls, most of them with young children, will decide the risk from AO sex is too much to bear when they are told by the doctor that the risks for a woman of catching HIV is 1 in x'00 AO encounters and they realise that this x number is far less than the total number of customers that they on average bareback a year.

It's interesting to work the numbers here. And, yes, I'm using approximations and one can easily find second and third order factors that will throw this off a bit. For example, I'm assuming here only German men are involved. But I think it's a useful approximation nevertheless.

First, the odds of transmission for a positive male to a negative female is 8 in 10,000. So a woman would have to, on average, have unprotected sex with an HIV positive male 1,125 times to become infected.

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/a...nd-needle-free

So what are the odds of a provider having sex with an HIV positive male at all?

Out of a population of 80.5 million Germans in 2009, 86,500 were infected with HIV. So on the average a woman would have to have sex with 930 men to encounter one with HIV.

But this assumes sampling from the general population. In Germany heterosexual transmission is only 20% of the total. So that would make it, on average, 4650 men to encounter one with HIV.

http://www.ecoi.net/file_upload/1226...-report-en.pdf
https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2009/

So how many random sessions would a German provider have to have in order to have a 50/50 chance of HIV infection? 1,125 * 4650 = 5,231,250 sessions.

Let's assume 10 sessions per day, 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year. That would still require a provider in Germany working 1437 years to have a 50/50 chance of acquiring HIV.

[Optimist]

Whatever you think of this law, in Germany as everywhere else in the world the laws apply to everyone in the country, regardless of citizenship. If you don't like them, you don't have to be there.

I agree with what you say. The integrationist model. Immigrants, whilst keeping their own roots, need to abide by the host country's laws (except in cases of infringed rights etc).

However I'm afraid you totally misread my post. Absolutely misread. I said "conform" not " obey laws".You substituted what you think I said for what I actually said hence the misunderstanding. (The misunderstanding was abetted by my spellchecker changing "general" into "German" in the bit you quote: sorry about that

I would never be so stupid as to say, as you suggest some might, that laws in a country only apply to those with certain citizenship.

What I said wasn't that the current German zeitgeist was that immigrants should obey the law; I said it was that anyone staying in Germany was expected to CONFORM. The state is reducing the scope for nonconformity and things which were once acceptable are now being restricted because they don't conform with a myth the state has about the country.

You might argue that I overstate my case, and that might well be. I'd love to know who the dissenting liberal voices are in modern Germany.

[SvenFKK]

The German motto of this law seems to be "conform or get out of our country". Sorry to write that as I have vehemently argued against any such stereotyping of Germany, but I am beginning to think Germany is changing for the worse

Whatever you think of this law, in Germany as everywhere else in the world the laws apply to everyone in the country, regardless of citizenship. If you don't like them, you don't have to be there.