Thailand Politics

[Wendella]

I had a read through most of the Zenjournalist account of recent Thai history up to almost the present. While it's chock full of detail, I have to say it shows a bias toward Thaksin mainly by omitting or else avoiding any description of significant detail of his own sins. Some of those (for instance the land deal to his wife) get mentioned so briefly that it's easy to imagine they're unimportant or trumped up. The drug war and the last minute law change to allow the Singapore telecom deal are omitted entirely. It's hard to seem balanced while ignoring the most serious charges against one side. Toward the very end he seems to become finally critical of Thaksin, but maybe too little too late by then.

[The Pro]

Interesting write up on the ongoing boycott of Singha products.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/11/wo...s-remarks.html

[Giotto]

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Even if the red shirts stay out of the game, there could be violence from a "third party".

As you said, Suthep is an idiot. Maybe he could even hire some "third party" to let the violence escalate.

Trashcanman77,

If the redshirts DO NOT SHOW UP it will be very difficult to blame them for possible violence of a "third party". If they make clear from the beginning that they will NOT BE IN BANGKOK to avoid violence Suthep will have problems to blame others. This game is expected and too obvious. He will commit political suicide with this game.

.

If there will be a coup due to violence, do you really think it will be over fast?

Don't you think the reds will fight back this time?

The initial coup it will last 3 days, and it will be quiet. All demonstrators will be home by then. Nobody will get hurt, as usual. The army provides buses to go home.

Then there will potentially be an uprising coming from the North / North-East. The redshirts will not take another coup without resistance.

The army knows that, and that's why they will try to avoid a coup under all circumstances. Only if the situation really escalates the army will take over, and most likely the generals will immediately try get the redshirt leadership, PT and the DP on a round table to keep them informed and get them involved in all necessary political decisions to stabilize the situation.

Power will be returned to the people very fast, to avoid the uprising to develop. The army will FORCE the politicians to somehow agree on reforms and implement those reforms under massive time pressure. Most likely there will be major flaws in this reforms, and afterwards the next political deadlock will pop up.

But who knows, may be Thailand is lucky and gets out of this mess .


Giotto

PS:

I know, now all the political hardliners from the red side will pop up and state, that the Amart (old elite) wants the military to take over, and that nobody of them has real interest to return to a democratic system. The country can be controlled much better if an army general is leading.

That's bullshit! The Amart is not that stupid. They know that the time of military dictatorship is over. They need a stable democratic system to keep dollars flowing into the country, generated by exports of agricultural goods and electronic parts, cars, tourists spending money and the domestic spending of the Thai people. If there is a coup the coup will be different than all coups before, and the target of the coup will definitely be solely to avoid further violence, resolve the demonstration and let the Thai economy and and tourism return to normal.

[Giotto]

Uneducated people casting votes; people who have a vested interest to support one party, . Isn't that so in all democracies?

Wolvenvacht,

Correct, I agree. And this is why it is so difficult to argue for Suthep's position, and this is why he has not much support amongst academics and intellectuals. Who wants to argue against one basic principal of our western style democracies: one person one vote!

But (and this is where the Thai component comes into play) :

- another basic democratic rule is the protection of minorities, do not rule AGAINST nearly 40 % of the people (PT does)

- the middle class, the entrepreneurs, the industry is needed, the elite, they generate the tax income.

- programs like the rice scheme a major vote buying programs and should be cancelled. Furthermore that program is highly unethical (trying to increase the world rice price will cost the poorest of the poor more money to buy their daily portion of rice) and educates anyway quite lazy people to be even more lazy.

The problem is that using the one person one vote system there is NO WAY to get rid of this extremely corrupt gang of PT politicians that are filling their pockets right now. A change in government every 4 to 8 years would be way better, to keep the corruption levels from both sides down. But right now there is NO CHANCE that a political change will take place by voting.

Giotto

[Giotto]

Coincidence!

Suthep and 200 of his whistle blowers on bicycles just drove through my Soi. A minute ago!

LOL.

Giotto

[Giotto]

You are a fountainhead of information and analysis.

I have some questions.

What if the NACP does press charges again Yingluck and others in her government? Fourteen of the complaints against her have been accepted and 18 more are under investigation. If they're found guilty they are barred from holding office. What then?

Peter,

If you watch Thai politics and the sessions in parliament you will observe that you hardly see Yingluck. She is active in a way as head of the administration, but she does not get involved into legislation! That's how Thaksin protect the position of his sister. Clever strategy! It will be very difficult for the NACC to deveop a real case against Yingluck. If they can and Yingluck will be removed Suthep has won that game as described in my post below, and Thailand will fall into chaos. Nobody knows the legal situation of the caretaker PM resigns or is thrown out of office.

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Candidates are not registered in 95% of the districts, the threshold for holding an election. The election could be ruled invalid and cancelled, the EC is calling for this, then they could try to register more candidates. As it currently stands, even if the election is held 95% of parliament will not have been elected so it cannot be assembled. No government. What then?

Same problem! Another of Suthep's strategies that might work.

But some PT candidates are filing law suites to get registered. They will most likely win those cases, and then more 95% of the districts can vote.

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The government simply doesn't have the money to make the rice payments, so far has failed at attempts to borrow the money and it is not clear if they will be able to do so under the circumstances. What if months from now there still have been no rice payments?

The government can take a credit/bank loans if the election commission allows them to do so, and of the money is for an existing program (a program put into place BEFORE the care taker government was in place).

Now, every government (even a DP government if the power should change) has to fulfill the obligations the government before signed up for. They can change the law and reduce / cut the benefits for the rice farmers, but for the past they have to pay.

...

There is a certain light at the end of the tunnel. The people in the North / North-East are not so Thaksin and PT blind any more. Some of them start to see what's going on. And some of them also start to understand that the deadlock situation in the politics must be unlocked.

What I expect to happen in 2014/2015 is that some medium and leading party members from the DP and from PT leave their parties and form a new political movement. This movement could break the majority of both big blocks (DP did not have a majority since 1992, but theoretically it could have one) and governing without a 3rd political force will not be possible any more.

If this kind of compromising (DP and PT members joining in a new political movement is unthinkable right now) starts the necessary reforms will take place faster than anybody can foresee it.


Giotto

[TConor]

Uneducated people casting votes; people who have a vested interest to support one party, . Isn't that so in all democracies?

Look at the last 2 Presidential elections in the USA. Almost 50% of Americans don't pay any federal taxes and they can vote. They got what the deserve though, Ha! Ha! For the stupid voters who have no skin in the game. As was noted that's the democratic way. Once the pendulum swings far enough to the right or left it will come back the other way. Like the weather – it's a giant cycle.

[Trashcanman77]

Giotto, great post!

Even if the red shirts stay out of the game, there could be violence from a "third party".

As you said, Suthep is an idiot. Maybe he could even hire some "third party" to let the violence escalate.

If there will be a coup due to violence, do you really think it will be over fast?

Don't you think the reds will fight back this time?

[Wolvenvacht]

(snip)

There are lots of brain-washed rather uneducated people voting for red, and also those benefiting from government programs (eg. The rice scheme). With the votes of the North / North-East the reds can win all elections, for the next 1000 years. But – the North-East only contributes to less than 25 % of the GDP and less than 10 % of the tax income. There are really serious imbalances here.

(snip)

Uneducated people casting votes; people who have a vested interest to support one party, ... Isn't that so in all democracies?

[Daddy San]

Daddy,

Though it's more difficult than ever before to predict how that situation on Monday and afterwards will develop here my attempt:

Thanks for your in-depth analysis.

At least now I know, why there is no telling how it will go.

I will miss our talks at the Bürgemeister table.

DS

[Paul Kausch]

Daddy,

Though it's more difficult than ever before to predict how that situation on Monday and afterwards will develop here my attempt:

When will he stop? No way to predict that, but not before the upcoming elections in February. Until then we will have problems here in Bangkok.

Let's wait and see. !

Giotto

You are a fountainhead of information and analysis.

I have some questions.

What if the NACP does press charges again Yingluck and others in her government? Fourteen of the complaints against her have been accepted and 18 more are under investigation. If they're found guilty they are barred from holding office. What then?

Candidates are not registered in 95% of the districts, the threshold for holding an election. The election could be ruled invalid and cancelled, the EC is calling for this, then they could try to register more candidates. As it currently stands, even if the election is held 95% of parliament will not have been elected so it cannot be assembled. No government. What then?

The government simply doesn't have the money to make the rice payments, so far has failed at attempts to borrow the money and it is not clear if they will be able to do so under the circumstances. What if months from now there still have been no rice payments?

[Giotto]

Daddy,

Though it's more difficult than ever before to predict how that situation on Monday and afterwards will develop here my attempt:


1) Strategy Suthep

Right now it's all about strategy. If you analyze the past weeks to find out how Suthep got there where he is now you will see that nothing of all this was really planned. 'Victory' over the Government was announced several times, but besides the parliament being dissolved and elections announced not much has happened. He promised the before the last few events already that everybody should go home if the target could not be reached, but he always stayed and developed new destructive ideas, proposed new upcoming events. It's pretty unpredictable what dumb idea he will develop next, but it is sure that he WILL DEVELOP ONE, whatever happens.

The only issue remaining on his target list right now is that Yingluck (Member of the Shinawatra family) resigns as caretaker Prime Minister. Everything else is unclear, including the question who will be caretaker PM thereafter, because the constitution does not provide any regulations for this case. He wants the election to be postponed, but how? The royal decree is there. The King has ordered elections, so – what do you want, Suthep? You really want to oppose The King?

Suthep is cornered, and everybody including many Senators and members of the caretaker Government try to find ways out for him without losing face! Nevertheless – a cornered Suthep is completely unpredictable, his normal brain structures are working quite strangely already, but under this stress, and with this possible loss of face – Suthep is definitely dangerous. He is an idiot – a complete idiot. In normal developed country he would sit in a psychiatric clinic. And now he is a cornered idiot – not good!

Therefore, right now he can only have ONE strategy: to provoke the military to stage a coup.


2) Strategy Government

Yingluck is caretaker PM, and by the order of her brother (Thaksin) from Dubai she will NOT STEP BACK a single mm any more. She will NOT resign as caretaker PM, because then Thailand would be in a unique unregulated (by the constitution) situation again, and in this situations usually the old elite struck some deals (a lot of money involved) to install a DP PM or – the military takes over. The red Government is still in power, they have offered new elections, but they have not moved out of any power position. If they did – the Shinawatra family would most likely face serious problems, there is no way that they can give this power position up without a major fight.

Besides all that: This government is elected by the majority of the Thais, and therefore it has some legitimacy. Much more legitimacy as Suthep will EVER have with his movement.

The strategy from Yingluck must be to avoid a military coup, and let the demonstrators do whatever they want. Any violence must be avoided. No parallel development to the demonstrations of 2010. Fuhuhuck yourself, Suthep, the caretaker government does business as usual.

That means that the Yingluck has basically ONE MAJOR problem right now – she MUST control the red shirts NOT the stage demonstrations as answer to the theatre that Mr. Suthep is right now staging here in Bangkok. And this is the unpredictable part of this game right now.


3) The Redshirts

The redshirts listened up to now, and they have not mobilized up to now. And if I write 'mobilized' I mean mobilized. If they decide to participate and stage their own demonstrations THEY WILL DWARF THE ANTI-GOVERNMENT DEMONSTRATION with one single event. The easily can do that. They can mobilize 500, 000 people coming to Bangkok within 3 days.

Now – the leadership of the redshirts – lets have a look.

Thida Thavornseth is in the driver seat right now, and she is a very clever woman. She know exactly what all this is about, and what she has to do, and what she cannot do. Her husband is Dr. Weng Tojirakarn. This man is also very very clever. He is one of the very old class fighters in the game, he was in the jungle already with Seksan, as a young man a communist, fighting with the Chinese against the military dictatorship in Thailand, before taking a deal (BTW. Installed by General Chawalit!) , returning into the normal life.

Then we have. Nattawut Saikua. He is a member of the Government now, and money is flowing into his pocket. Long time the right hand of Thaksin – he can be controlled from Dubai. Thaksin knows the game, so Nattawut will know it, too.

But now it comes, there is one weak part in the chain of the UDD leadership: Jatuporn Prompan. Jatuporn is – the Suthep of the redshirts. He is aggressive, emotional, difficult to control, not too clever (IQ somewhere between water buffalo and bull dog) – and completely unpredictable. But – he has the rhetorical capabilities of Adolf Hitler and Joseph Goebbels.

Nobody can control Jatuporn. He is an idiot – a complete idiot. In normal developed country he would sit in a psychiatric clinic. (I said that already. Somewhere. Hmmm).


4) The Redshirts and the Government

Now everybody think that the redshirts will understand the critical situation and back up the Government. And some will do – for sure. But, the redshirts are also not very happy about the Government. Let's take the rice farmers. Many of them did not get their promised 'gratifications' since October 2013 – they are preparing demonstrations AGAINST the Government now. And the government does not have the money to pay.

The attempt to grand amnesty to the DP government from 2010 (Abhisit and Suthep) was also not well received from the redshirts. Though the normal reds would have forgotten already, some leaders (Jatuporn!) insisted on clarification about what happened in 2010 and who is responsible for the 100 dead people.

The redshirts also don't like certain members of the Government – eg. Mr. Chalerm. Mr. Chalerm is one of the old Elite clever enough to immediately adjust his political color to changes in the Thai political party system. That's why he is a member of PT now. I think he was a member of ALL EXISTING Thai parties already – whenever he needed that. He is a police officer, and he is one who had to leave the country in the 90s because of 'not explainable orign of his wealth'. In short – he is a big pig! A dangerous ruthless unethical cockroach. And I understand every redshirt who does not understand, why this man is in the red PT Government. I could tell stories about Chalerm. Oh my god.

Coming back to the main issue: it's not sure now long the redshirts can tolerate the situation and the fucked-up PT Government, and when they decide to take things in their own hands. And then, then we will get real problems.


5) The Crystal Ball talks...

Two options:

A) The redshirts stay out of the game.

I personally hope this happens. Then – there will be no redshirts, there should not be any violence, nobody gets hurt – and after Monday is Tuesday! Suthep will run around like a tiger in the cage and think: What do I do now, the fucking redshirts did not show up?

He will try to instigate something (to make The Pro happy) but everybody will easily understand where that problems are coming from. To really create unrest and violence he needs the redshirts in the city close to his demonstration areas.

If the redshirts are clever – they will enjoy their holiday in Surat Thani! Because – nobody is there, they are all in Bangkok &61514; !

B) The redshirts stage demonstrations against Suthep in Bangkok.

Outcome is clear: Violence, warnings from Prayuth Chan-Ocha, and a military coup within days, when things escalate.


6) How long can it last?

Tja, strangely the second solution be) ends the problem faster &61514; . LOL. The military takes over, and Thailand returns to normal. Everybody blames the army, the US announce some sanctions, Suthep declares victory – and nothing changes in Thailand. In a few years we will try again then.

But – if the redshirts take their vacation and Jatuporn plays in the sandbox with The Pro. Then Suthep has to develop a new idea, because all his Bangkok Shutdown failed. But – he will have seriously annoyed a big number of his supporters (Bangkokians) , and he will lose support every day to come.

When will he stop? No way to predict that, but not before the upcoming elections in February. Until then we will have problems here in Bangkok.

Let's wait and see !



Giotto

[Rjsss212]

Next will be the Chrystal Ball.

Giotto

Todays WSJ.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...10222926026720

[Giotto]

Thanks for your impartial assessment. …

Beer Monger,

Impartial – I am not sure. But I doubt that a foreigner will ever fully understand what's going on in Thai politics.

I hear so many farang judging about Thai politics. Tourists are more yellow, based on the respect for HRM The King and the 'Democratic' in the party name 'Democratic Party'. Expats living here tend to at least understand the history of this conflict a bit more, changing the color to orange. And then of course those many expats siding with Thaksin, much more red than the reds. Usually more the low lives here.

Let's have a look at some statements here:

.

Shall the poor wait for mr anti foreigner Suthep to take away democracy from those he considers monkeys & set up his "peoples reform council" of China. Or fight for their right to vote for the Robin Hood of their choice.

Yeah, 'mr anti foreigner Suthep', as if this were important right now. It's definitely not about us right now. I personally don't know whom Mr. Suthep considers to be a monkey. This are all the old stories told amongst expats for years (some members of the Bangkok middle class and the elite consider the people from Isaan to be monkeys, a brutal generalization, simply not true for the majority of the Thais) – all nonsense and not very helpful.

Thailand is now inching towards civil war.

The anti-government anti-democracy protestors on the streets (Yellow / PAD / Facists) are ulta-nationalists. They hate foreigners and constantly berate the foreign press for reporting them as anti-democracy and anti-democracy, but that is what they are.

Who else than The Pro can write such exaggerated nonsense. The PAD basically does not exist any more. Fascists ... Again, it's not about foreigners right now. And if Nick Nostitz gets into trouble in the center of the demonstration – then it does not mean that all foreign journalists get into trouble there. Super Red Nick is sometimes asking for trouble – we all know that.

And no – those demonstrators are NOT 'ultra-nationalists'. There are basically four groups on the streets:

- around 30, 000 workers (palm-oil, rubber) from the deep South, Surat Thani, Suthep's battle troups.

- the old group of never-learning nationalists, but those are in the process of extinction.

- lots of [may be misguided] Bangkok middle class that is simply fed up with the incompetent Government.

- supports from the Southern Provinces, farmers, business owners, middle class of the South.

And then there is another important issue: the number of demonstrators. Suthep is talking about millions, the government about a few thousands. Both is of cause exaggerated – but one thing is very clear: Suthep DOES NOT HAVE the majority of Thais behind him. If there are sometimes 150, 000 – 200, 000 people on the streets – that's already a lot. The Bangkok Post calculated one of the big demonstrations and estimated 350, 000 demonstrators.

...
At this time there is a significant increase in the potential for shootings from "third hand" forces. These are retired army, retired police, militia etc. Where innocents will be shot so that blame can be put on the other side.

Ahh, the old gossips and strategies again. Now you just need to bring in the 'men in black', and we are back in 2010. Bullshit!

...
The anti-government mobs want to turn support against the government in the western media so there is a chance as things get worse that some foreigners will be shot in order to grab headlines abroad. Likewise some of those against the anti-government mobs could target foreigners to put further pressure on the anti-government mobs by accusing them of targeting foreigners as they are ultra-nationalists.

Aehhh? That's dumb nonsense.

...
The Dems have not won an election since '92. They have the support in BKK and the South, but that will not win them an election.

Not entirely correct. The Dems did not even have strong support in BKK at the last elections. BKK was split between red and yellow.

If we foreigners try to understand this Thai political deadlock we should refrain from supporting all simple and / or dogmatic interpretations delivered from any of the parties:

- As long as vote buying persists elections do not reflect the real political will of the Thais (= Suthep's bullshit, justification to postpone the elections, which he cannot win. Vote buying is a common practice here from all political parties)

- Let's vote on 02. 02. 14, that's the democratic way of solving the crisis (= Yingluck, nonsense, nothing is solved, because a kind of dictatorship of the majority has been established here with the votes of the people from the North / North-East. It might look 'democratic', but it's to simple to understand it like this. There are lots of brain-washed rather uneducated people voting for red, and also those benefitting from government programs (eg. The rice scheme). With the votes of the North / North-East the reds can win all elections, for the next 1000 years. But – the North-East only contributes to less than 25 % of the GDP and less than 10 % of the tax income. There are really serious imbalances here.)

Next will be the Chrystal Ball.


Giotto

[Beer Monger]

Daddy,

Greetings, hope you are well.

Giotto

Thanks for your impartial assessment. Sounds like Suthep is the wild card and how the situation plays out will depend on his whims at the moment. Regardless, if the airport is open, I'll be flying in from SG on Thursday. If not, I'll hang around Singapore and JB. I've always felt any place you go is only as safe as you make it. Pay attention to your surroundings and don't stick your head out and you generally end up ok.