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I don't understand why I still see news footage of tourists sitting at the airport. If flights are cancelled, thats it--your ticked is good for a refund, or a new flight. But its not like they are suddenly going to call your name.
I believe one could get a train and be in Kuala Lumpur in 8-12 hours or so. Last time I was there they even had sleeping cars.
Pad is screwing the Thai economy and the Thai people. Their quest for power is such that they do not care of the well being of the people. It is sad. PAD can do anything now because of the hidden hand behind it. Their aim is to have a partially elected parliament and the rest appointed and that is the 'democratic' system PAD wants for Thailand. Thailand is more than PAD unfortunately for PAD thus the need for partially appointed parliament.
Thailand is having a double whammy, one from the global crisis and one due to PAD. It is going to take awhile for Thailand to recover and if PAD gets what they want, the next govt will suffer for what PAD has done. Hope Thais see thru PAD and kick them out of the airport and the streets of Bangkok.
Power corrupts and more so for an unelected govt.
LittleBigMan
11-27-08, 09:21
Desparate people do desparate things. Their tactics didn't work in Bangkok, so they went to where it hits the pocket book. Would I be correct if the King had gave his blessing for Thaksin to come back he would be back by now? Would I be correct even in his silents that the King supports the PAD?
Shutting the airport is a good move but it screws me since I need to go home soon. The police and Army don't have the balls to do the right thing. Call the Chinese and get one of those tanks to just roll over them. People got to come and go! WTF!
In this situation the Airlines don't have to do shit since they themselves didn't create the situation. The rules is if it is not within their control they don't have to feed you or put you up in a hotel or give you a refund. They just need to make a effort to help!
LBM
Shutting the airport is a good move but it screws me since I need to go home soon.
LBM
Sorry you are stuck, but could it happen in a better place. I would love the excuse the PAD shut down the airport and I can leave the LOS.
Hope you get home soon and there is no major violence.
Slim
Lets all watch the thai baht DEPERICIATE now!
Hip hip hooray!
PosterLion
11-27-08, 13:23
I have no words for this stupid and ignorant statement. Unbelievable.
The anti drug campaign was definitely "very very effective" for those 2000 over people that were sentenced to death without any court ruling, just shot down with a few grams of drugs in their pockets. This was a kind of legalized murder...nothing else than that.
Giotto
Hello Mr. G,
I don't know how you put up with all these democratic lovelies. LOL
I think you know me pretty well and will understand the upward slant of my nose while I recommend the dismissal of this nonsensical political discussion.
The key to understanding all of the conflicts in Thailand is the world-wide change of social mood from expansionary-optimism to deflationary-pessimism. Conflicts are erupting every where in the world and will continue to do so until the pessimism is exhausted.
It will be then and only then that social mood will change for the better. As far as I am concerned (because I am quite naturally correct in all matters of philosophy), it simply won't matter which political party is in control.
I do have a salient point regarding the WAR-ON-DRUGS that sheds a light of direct evidence that social mood has indeed swung to that of deflationary-pessimism.
If Thaksin's regime won the war on drugs, why is the current street price of Yaba cheaper than it was in 2004?
enough said! :)
poster . . .
If you are stuck in Thailand and need to leave urgently, contact Pattaya City Hall for Help.
________________________________________________________________
Emergency Meeting discusses local assistance for stranded International Tourists.
On Thursday Afternoon, Khun Mongkol, the Chief of Banglamung District chaired an emergency meeting to discuss the currently situation in Bangkok and the affect on Tourists residing here in Pattaya following the closure of Suvanabumi Airport. The District Chief announced that Pattaya City Hall and Banglamung City Hall’s can be contacted by Tourists who are stranded here in Pattaya following the airport closure which could last for some time. For the latest information the Pattaya City Call Center 1337 can be contacted and for those who need to leave Thailand urgently can also contact 1337 and decisions on whether to accommodate requests to leave Thailand urgently will be decided case-by-case by an emergency committee which has been set up. Utapao Airport in Sattahip is still operating and can be used. So if you are stranded here in Pattaya and have problems with money or visas or if you require any advice regarding the use of other forms of transport to leave Thailand please call 1337.
Man, I feel sorry for Giotto, and anyone else who has to run a business in, or connected with, LOS.
Emergency Declared at Thai Airports
By THOMAS FULLER
Published: November 27, 2008
BANGKOK — The government of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat declared a state of emergency at Bangkok’s two commercial airports Thursday and instructed police to deal with protesters occupying the facilities, Thai media reported.
It was not immediately clear what measures the declaration authorized.
The order came after a cabinet meeting in the northern city of Chiang Mai, a location apparently chosen to avoid confrontation with demonstrators, who in addition to the Bangkok airports are occupying the prime minister’s offices here in the capital.
Earlier, amid rumors of a military coup, a government spokesman instructed troops to “stay in their barracks.”
The closure of Bangkok’s second airport early Thursday severed the last remaining commercial air links to the Thai capital. Until Wednesday, airlines were operating domestic flights out of Don Muang airport, Bangkok’s oldest airfield.
Protesters have vowed to keep the airports shut until the government steps down.
Government supporters who have formed a type of auxiliary, known as the red shirts, said they were growing impatient with the protesters. Weera Musikapong, one of the leaders of the group said in a news conference that the “best way out” of the crisis was to follow the law. “But if the government does not act today or tomorrow the red shirt group and the people must come out and do something.”
Protesters have clashed with pro-government forces on several occasions in recent months, leaving at least two people dead and dozens injured.
Thailand’s tourism minister, Weerasak Kohsurat, said the government would soon begin flying thousands of stranded tourists out of the country using military bases near the Thai capital.
Tourists would be flown by Thai Airways to Singapore or Malaysia for connecting flights, The Associated Press reported.
Government officials also said Thursday they would allow commercial airlines to use one of the military airports, U-Tapao.
Used by the United States military during the Vietnam War, U-Tapao can handle only a fraction of the daily average of 100,000 passengers who flew in and out of Suvarnabhumi International Airport last year.
U-Tapao’s terminal has the capacity to hold 400 people and the parking lot has about 100 spaces. The airport is about 120 miles from Bangkok, a two-hour drive.
The seizure of Bangkok’s airports is radical even by the standards of Thailand’s tempestuous political past. Despite frequent military coups and changes of government in past decades, the day-to-day running of Thailand’s bureaucracy had been largely unaffected until now. The airports operated with little interruption during a military coup in 2006, and unlike many of its neighbors Thailand has maintained reliable service in key areas such as electricity and health care despite political turmoil.
But with the closure of the airports this week and occupation of the prime minister’s office since August, politics is now directly interfering with many facets of life in Thailand.
The country’s foreign minister, Sompong Amornwiwat, said the government is considering postponing a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations scheduled for next month because of the political crisis, Reuters reported.
Cargo services at Suvarnabhumi airport, a major hub for Southeast Asia, have completely ceased, a major blow for Thai and foreign companies that use the country as an export base.
“The protesters have basically closed down the country,” said Ruth Banomyong, an associate professor at Thammasat Business School who is one of the region’s leading experts in logistics.
“Thailand was never considered as a very risky country,” he said. “I don’t think companies would have prepared for this.”
Thailand is well integrated into a regional network of just-in-time electronics manufacturing, where businesses keep down costs by maintaining a bare minimum of inventories. If the airports remain closed, assembly lines in Japan and China may run out of the semiconductors, disk drives and other components manufactured in Thailand.
Mr. Ruth estimates that electronics manufacturers keep around three to five days of inventory.
“This idea of Bangkok and Suvarnabhumi being a cargo hub — they can drop it down the drain now,” he said.
Thailand last year exported about $40 billion in electronics and computer components. Leading electronics manufacturing including Fujitsu, Seagate, Philips, and LG have factories in the country.
The airport closures may also prove dangerous for those in need of urgent medical care.
Neighboring countries such as Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos rely on Thailand for health care because Bangkok has some of the best hospitals in the region. The closure of the airports has shut off the urgent provision of medicines and medical machinery from abroad.
“For agriculture and electronics it’s a commercial loss,” said Voratat Tantimongkolsuk, deputy director of operations at CTI, one of the largest freight forwarders in Thailand. “But this is also about people’s lives. We import a lot of medical equipment from other countries.”
Mr. Voratat is proposing to his clients that they send their shipments by truck to Kuala Lumpur International Airport, adding about three days to the shipment time. But this route may not be viable for the most sensitive products.
Last year Suvarnabhumi airport handled import and exports averaging a total of 2,900 tons a day.
I was just wondering how many mongerers who told their wives or bosses they were someplace else are now stuck in Bangkok. That would make for an interesting situation.
In the meantime I just read the earliest the airport would reopen is Saturday - provided the demonstrators pack up and go peacefully. It is just a shame that they are killing the Thai economy.
If you had the power and position to do something about this stalemate, what would you do? The options are......live with status quo, coup, King intervention, massive demonstrations to the degree that one of the above kicks in. Perhaps there are more options, but these will suffice for my purpose. At the root of this political crisis is Thaksin. Get rid of Thaksin and the problem will go away, IMHO. Thaksin and his cronies are so corrupt as to define a new level of corruption. At some point, either the Army will step in or the King will step in. Dissolve parliament and call a new general election. In the meantime, businesses and tourism will be hurt, but in the longer run, they will be better off.......IMHO. Giotto and others have only their income to worry about, but the citizens of Thailand have their country's survival to think about.
If you had the power and position to do something about this stalemate, what would you do? The options are......live with status quo, coup, King intervention, massive demonstrations to the degree that one of the above kicks in. Perhaps there are more options, but these will suffice for my purpose. At the root of this political crisis is Thaksin. Get rid of Thaksin and the problem will go away, IMHO. Thaksin and his cronies are so corrupt as to define a new level of corruption. At some point, either the Army will step in or the King will step in. Dissolve parliament and call a new general election. In the meantime, businesses and tourism will be hurt, but in the longer run, they will be better off.......IMHO. Giotto and others have only their income to worry about, but the citizens of Thailand have their country's survival to think about.
PAD doesn't give a sh*t about the "citizens" of Thailand. PAD is the pawn of the power elite who are miffed that democracy doesn't further their interests. Thaksin is corrupt - I'm no fan - and worse, but his machinations are just more heavy handed than his counterparts in the West, not different in kind. And the power behind PAD doesn't care about the corruption, just that they're cut out of it.
This crisis could be stopped instantly, but not by the government.
But, looking on the bright side, this mess is probably good for mongers (other than those whose flight plans are affected, to whom I send my sincerest sympathies). The immeasurable damage to Thailand this is causing bodes well for our prospects and pocketbooks.
PosterLion
11-27-08, 16:18
I was just wondering how many mongerers who told their wives or bosses they were someplace else are now stuck in Bangkok. That would make for an interesting situation.
In the meantime I just read the earliest the airport would reopen is Saturday - provided the demonstrators pack up and go peacefully. It is just a shame that they are killing the Thai economy.
For those that must leave in a hurry, here's two options:
1) catch a train from BKK to Penang and then take one of the six flights a day from Penang to KL on Air Asia or
2) catch the gambling bus from Lumpini Park to Poi Pet, catch a taxi from Poi Pet to Phnom Phen, and take the one Air Asia flight per day to KL.
Hope this helps. And remember, this is Thailand. :)
But, looking on the bright side, this mess is probably good for mongers (other than those whose flight plans are affected, to whom I send my sincerest sympathies). The immeasurable damage to Thailand this is causing bodes well for our prospects and pocketbooks.
Yep, my friend and I are in the group of punters affected by this closure of airports. :(
We were hoping to spend our long Thanksgiving holiday weekend in LOS. Instead, we rerouted our flights to Hong Kong, cancelled hotel reservations in BKK, made last-minute bookings in Wan Chai, and ended up having fun with Pinoys, but not as much as we originally planned. ;)
Let's hope the airports are cleared up soon, so we can salvage what we have left of our free time. :cool:
So, where else is an alternative place?
Seeko
FritsVanegter
11-27-08, 17:17
Hello,
Originally i would have flown today to BKK for an 8 week holiday with connecting flight to the Phillipines and Cambodia all departing from that new BKK airport. Probably have to reschedule everything because of the troubles at the airport. Could reroute to KL and fly from there to Phil and PP. Kl is a lovely town but not a mongers heaven like BKK ( used to be? )
Next year will probably skip Thailand completely. Allthough i am not a great fan of the current government this action will do more wrong then good. Tourism will go down the drain. The highly regarded King is keeping silence. I just did talk to a Thai friend and she said everything surely will be solved before his birthday on 5 december. Just an hour ago the prime minister was on all tv station but if he will not move the protesters at the airport will stay foot. Maybe the army will take control one more time. Let us wait and see and hope paradise will not be lost forever.
Greetings,
Frits
...
If Thaksin's regime won the war on drugs, why is the current street price of Yaba cheaper than it was in 2004?
...
PosterLion,
To be honest, I don't know, I never buy that shit :) ...
I don't really expect the elite of the country to act as sponsors in this case.
Giotto
Washburn, Oosik1,
Thanks for your supporting words ... in fact business is down, the hotel nearly empty. If somebody needs a room: www.livingstones.co.th. But please don't send me PMs and ask how you can get there, if the airport is closed :) .
On the other side I have all the girls for myself :) !!! (but then, if I think it to the end, if I would "help" some of our horny girls Mrs. Giotto would most likely send me to the airport :) ...).
The airport somehow gets a more important role in my life. No idea why.
Giotto
RCA Knight
11-27-08, 17:27
Recent years, I found there is a huge increase of punters in Zhu Hai, Dongguang, ect, these destinations are getting international, and no longer hidden from international hunters. Lots of nice hotels, over abundance of ladies, price cheaper than Thailand, Laos, Myanmar, because of the over supply. Not bad.
For those that must leave in a hurry, here's two options:
1) catch a train from BKK to Penang and then take one of the six flights a day from Penang to KL on Air Asia or
2) catch the gambling bus from Lumpini Park to Poi Pet, catch a taxi from Poi Pet to Phnom Phen, and take the one Air Asia flight per day to KL.
Hope this helps. And remember, this is Thailand. :)
There are also Bangkok Airways connections from Samui to Hong Kong and Singapore. Samui is reachable from BKK in a day's drive. There are also flights from Pattaya to Samui.
1) catch a train from BKK to Penang and then take one of the six flights a day from Penang to KL on Air AsiaNo need to go as far as Penang. Just get off at Alor Star, right over the border. It's become the main 'international' airport for many of us in the deep South, now that Hatyai no longer has any overseas flights.
At least one airline (China) has international flights out of Phuket that don't go through Bangkok.
It's a little convoluted, but you could even get out via Vientiane . . . .
Due to the fact that I have nothing to do here at Livingstone's Lodge I now try a new job: Fortune Teller.
Here a possible solution for the PAD dilemma:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/281108_News/28Nov2008_news02.php
I think the PAD leadership knows right now that they made a huge mistake with occupying the airport. They are losing the core support of the Bangkok middle class. But - there is no way out at the moment, without losing face and losing the battle.
But - here a possible way out: The Haj! !!
Many PAD supporters are from the South, at least a significant minority of then are muslims, and about 5000 muslims from the South want to make the Haj this year. They need to board aircrafts to Saudi Arabia, and they need to be there latest on Monday.
When now the police starts to prepare activities to re-take the airport the PAD leadership might suddenly discover the necessity to respect the belief/faith of the Muslims and support them to make the Haj - calling the blockade of the airport off and proudly "pilgering" back to the government house thereafter ...
Just an idea ...
Giotto
NicFrenchy
11-28-08, 05:14
The Haj... hahahahaha
The Haj... hahahahaha
good one. But I am not sure Thais are smart enough to even know what it is.
The PAD's Airport occupation cost the country around 120 bn thb. There have been already around 500 layoffs (that I know of) in the tourism industry and it looks very poor for the first quarter of 2009!
Thanks to the PAD, Thailand is not fucked for at least 6 monthsThe PAD are now doing the PPP a great favour, and yes, the inbred PAD are so dumb they do not even realise it.
PPP can now claim in 2009 all the economic hardship is due to the PAD and their demonstrations, loss of business confidence etc... its all the PAD's fault. This is wonderful for the PPP and everyone will believe them.
Well done PAD - you fell into that one hook, line and sinker.
LOL!
Perhaps it's best for foreigners to keep their opinions to themselves about the present conflict in Thailand. Because it's hard to say who will end up in control of the Thai government when this is finished and done.
You might offend some people who will have the power to expel you from Thailand and ban you from coming there again.
The PAD might not be the most popular party right now. But they might have the support of the Thai military. Here is what this crisis is coming to now:
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/392817/1/.html
Jungle Bluebird
11-28-08, 07:14
Some cute little spinners among the PAD mob. Just change into yellow and go under...
Also heard food sucks now at the airport. So for a decent meal, sex in return. PAD chicks seem to do anything for a few bucks.
Other than that... all of these PAD fools need a good kicking, well except the cute spinners of course.
Thanks god, pussy is still ample available in Thailand and judging by recent events hookers seem to have more brain then most.
JB
Due to the fact that I have nothing to do here at Livingstone's Lodge I now try a new job: Fortune Teller.
Here a possible solution for the PAD dilemma:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/281108_News/28Nov2008_news02.php
I think the PAD leadership knows right now that they made a huge mistake with occupying the airport. They are losing the core support of the Bangkok middle class. But - there is no way out at the moment, without losing face and losing the battle.
But - here a possible way out: The Haj! !!
Many PAD supporters are from the South, at least a significant minority of then are muslims, and about 5000 muslims from the South want to make the Haj this year. They need to board aircrafts to Saudi Arabia, and they need to be there latest on Monday.
When now the police starts to prepare activities to re-take the airport the PAD leadership might suddenly discover the necessity to respect the belief/faith of the Muslims and support them to make the Haj - calling the blockade of the airport off and proudly "pilgering" back to the government house thereafter ...
Just an idea ...
Giotto
LittleBigMan
11-28-08, 08:24
I consider myself to be pretty liberal and radical at times. Maybe I'm just getting older. But I have a problem with any group that knows the rules of the game but when they don't get it their way want to change the rules to suit them. How many times is there going to be a election or appointment until they get it their way and their going to be happy while others now take their place.
I understand this is their country! But even the PAD was envolved in setting up Thailand system of government. Just because you can't get your way and your man to the top doesn't mean you bully your way there!
I have nothing against Gays or Lesbians and I come from California and S.F. I believe you be whatever you want to be! In November there was a election and another ballot measure to allow Gays to Marry! It didn't past again! How many times do we do this until they get their way! Now they are doing the same thing the PAD is doing! If the system doesn't work! work within the system to change it! These groups aren't the only ones living on this planet! You can't always get your way!
LBM, got to get out! They are screwing my standby chances and this is becoming personal. LBM is getting mad! Hehe!
listen people - Taksin was a hi ranking POLICE general until he got the PM position. The MILITARY (specifically the ARMY) supports PAD. The ARMY wants to keep their source of cheap labour in Isaan and PPP wants to "equalize" as in "level the playing field"
it only a bit more complicated than that but that's it in essence
Typical Thai politics - FUBAR - fucked up beyond ALL recognition
This is a perfect of not onl;y shooting one's self in the FOOT but cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. The little people are getting hurt most - but just think - the price of poon might actually decline because of over availability of supply
NicFrenchy
11-28-08, 15:25
Typical Thai politics - FUBAR - fucked up beyond ALL recognition
This is a perfect of not onl;y shooting one's self in the FOOT but cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. The little people are getting hurt most - but just think - the price of poon might actually decline because of over availability of supply
While you are certainly knowledgeable about Thai Politics, you suck at Thai Economics.
When Supply exceeds demand, Thai people are not competitive, they raise the prices.
Thai Logic: if there are less customers, I have to charge them more because I still need my 2,000 thb per day. so instead of 4 clients at 500, I will wait until I get 1 at 2,000.
While you are certainly knowledgeable about Thai Politics, you suck at Thai Economics.
When Supply exceeds demand, Thai people are not competitive, they raise the prices.
Thai Logic: if there are less customers, I have to charge them more because I still need my 2,000 thb per day. so instead of 4 clients at 500, I will wait until I get 1 at 2,000.
Very true. I remember that about 10 years ago in Samui they multiplied the airport tax (I don't remember the factor, but it was huge) because there were not enough passengers. They only reverted the move after they found out that the income went almost to zero after that. But in our case, as long as there are enough fools paying up, they can play the game with success.
While you are certainly knowledgeable about Thai Politics, you suck at Thai Economics.
When Supply exceeds demand, Thai people are not competitive, they raise the prices.
Thai Logic: if there are less customers, I have to charge them more because I still need my 2,000 thb per day. so instead of 4 clients at 500, I will wait until I get 1 at 2,000.Isn't that the same strategy New York City's MTA uses when ridership falls off? Less people riding means less revenue, so they raise the price and are shocked they now have even less people riding.
The Thais do not have a lock on backward thinking.
Redfield10
11-28-08, 20:00
You guys are wrong.
Supply and demand always works, eventually.
You think folks are going to pay more if there's more available?
Not in the long run.it will be exactly the opposite.
QUOTE=Thor93]Isn't that the same strategy New York City's MTA uses when ridership falls off? Less people riding means less revenue, so they raise the price and are shocked they now have even less people riding.
The Thais do not have a lock on backward thinking.[/QUOTE]
My flight to BKK was originally scheduled for tommorow but due to all of the unrest I changed it(I had no choice) to December 8th.
Everyone chime in-what do you think the chances are the airport will be open and functioning by then? I'm thinking of just changing the trip the Phillipines but I know nothing about mongering there.
M P Lurker
11-29-08, 01:06
You guys are wrong.
Supply and demand always works, eventually.
But there are some subtleties.
The type I girl I go for will still get a customer no matter what because she is in the top 5% for looks.
She doesn't have to set a cheaper price. She may be prepared to wait just a little longer to get the guy.
Many girls will set top price at the start of the evening and start mentally reducing as they get more desperate to get a man (money) as time is going by.
Often will want to only do short time early on so can get another customer. So will have to offer very large amounts for LT early in evening.
I don't know for how much the current political situation in Thailand is responsible, but the baht has gone down in value to over 35 against the $ just in the last few weeks.
So, if some punters can't get back home, at least they are getting more for their $ now.
I hope this airport blockage goes on past Christmas. Its good news for mongers as the prices next year will go so down, and so many new girls will be into "freelancing".
The police are doing the right thing, after the lawyers, doctors, media, many ISG members, all complained the action last time was too violent, they are now trying a zero violence campaign.
Yes, go and talk to them nicely each day and see if they will move along, and if not then try again tomorrow.
They will have to do this until the media, lawyers, ISG members are all screaming out to go in and beat the crap out of the PAD, and then they can with full backing of everyone.
So, perhaps January before the airport opens again ? LOL :)
So, perhaps January before the airport opens again ? LOL :)
Maybe longer. The PAD has controlled the Government House for months now.
Eventually all foreign businesses will leave, people will begin to starve, and a civil war will erupt.
Maybe then the big guy with all the gold will say something?
In the meantime, those of you in Bangkok enjoy the girls for the rest of us.
Jungle Bluebird
11-29-08, 08:21
never mind how long it goes on...
most companies initiated a hiring freeze or started to lay off staff. c'mas bonuses have been cancelled, annual salary increases postponsed. and this is just the beginning.
it turns my stomach. staff i am letting go are top quality people, many with families. layoffs, all courtesy on anarchist Sondhi, holding the nation ransom on behalf of the few.
there will be NO tourist high season this year. 6.5% of GDP wiped out. consequences for Thailand will be immense. Social unrest on a large scale is now a real possibility. never thought it come to that.
JB
I hope this airport blockage goes on past Christmas. Its good news for mongers as the prices next year will go so down, and so many new girls will be into "freelancing".
The police are doing the right thing, after the lawyers, doctors, media, many ISG members, all complained the action last time was too violent, they are now trying a zero violence campaign.
Yes, go and talk to them nicely each day and see if they will move along, and if not then try again tomorrow.
They will have to do this until the media, lawyers, ISG members are all screaming out to go in and beat the crap out of the PAD, and then they can with full backing of everyone.
So, perhaps January before the airport opens again ? LOL :)
Well, actually, you don't have the facts exactly right as to the California vote you refer to (proposition 8) it was not the gays and lesbians who put this on the ballot this time - but those against gay marriage... they were upset about a court decision that overturned their previous vote to prevent gay marriage... and they succeeded (for now).
I consider myself to be pretty liberal and radical at times. Maybe I'm just getting older. But I have a problem with any group that knows the rules of the game but when they don't get it their way want to change the rules to suit them. How many times is there going to be a election or appointment until they get it their way and their going to be happy while others now take their place.
I understand this is their country! But even the PAD was envolved in setting up Thailand system of government. Just because you can't get your way and your man to the top doesn't mean you bully your way there!
I have nothing against Gays or Lesbians and I come from California and S.F. I believe you be whatever you want to be! In November there was a election and another ballot measure to allow Gays to Marry! It didn't past again! How many times do we do this until they get their way! Now they are doing the same thing the PAD is doing! If the system doesn't work! work within the system to change it! These groups aren't the only ones living on this planet! You can't always get your way!
LBM, got to get out! They are screwing my standby chances and this is becoming personal. LBM is getting mad! Hehe!
B-bird. You ain't seen nothing yet. Look for the baht to fall another 10% bare minimum as tourists become afraid to come to los because they might not be able to get back home
I predict at least another 25% drop in tourists and new years will be a ghost town
Sorry to be so negative, but the handwriting is on the wall.
I don't know for how much the current political situation in Thailand is responsible, but the baht has gone down in value to over 35 against the $ just in the last few weeks.
So, if some punters can't get back home, at least they are getting more for their $ now.I think the exchange rate is only moving back to where it was about two years ago:
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?from=USD&to=THB&amt=1&t=2y
Ralph Kramden
11-29-08, 13:35
Sounds good to me. Pussy will be cheaper because of a weaker BHT and the supply will be greater than the demand. You can be sure the always paranoid Japanese won't step foot in Bangkok in December/January, and consequently won't be driving up the price of getting laid.
Personally, I arrive on 12/25 and depart 1/2, and I look for things to be cleared by then. The Thai economy can't afford a bunch of political misfits to wreck it during the height of the tourist season.
There is a better chance the thrifty Opebo will be spending the holidays in Bangkok at a discount rate. I look forward to his reports.
Maybe longer. The PAD has controlled the Government House for months now.
Eventually all foreign businesses will leave, people will begin to starve, and a civil war will erupt.
Maybe then the big guy with all the gold will say something?
In the meantime, those of you in Bangkok enjoy the girls for the rest of us.The big guy with the gold said nothing till now. He just cares of his business and his gold. He looks after this country like the pad looks after democracy and corruption.
It is a big mess. And will be even worse.
The irony is that the only real gainer, in terms of charisma, credibility, support, is the big guy with cash. He will come back triumphant after elections (therefore there might be no elections). Or maybe he is already in Thailand.
LittleBigMan
11-29-08, 14:46
Stew2,
I got it right alright! Maybe not exactly the way you want it! There has been so many measure the last few years that I have lost count. If the outcome isn't they way a group wants it. Then challenge it in court! if that doesn't work then rewrite the measure like Mark Leno did or tried to do! If a court decide one thing then go to a another or higher court to challenge it again. If you lose or win then someone else comes along and rewrite it again and again meantime lets demontrate and riot like animals to get ones way! There got to be a better way? But I got it right! Like you just said " they succeeded for now"
LBM
Edward Appleby
11-29-08, 16:51
Actually, you got it completely wrong, not based on what Stew wants, but based on what factually occurred. I'd go through your posts and state everything that is factually incorrect, but Stew already did.
Stew2,
I got it right alright! Maybe not exactly the way you want it! There has been so many measure the last few years that I have lost count. If the outcome isn't they way a group wants it. Then challenge it in court! if that doesn't work then rewrite the measure like Mark Leno did or tried to do! If a court decide one thing then go to a another or higher court to challenge it again. If you lose or win then someone else comes along and rewrite it again and again meantime lets demontrate and riot like animals to get ones way! There got to be a better way? But I got it right! Like you just said " they succeeded for now"
LBM
Sevastopol1
11-29-08, 23:58
I am not picking this post out deliberately but!! it raises the hecles a little, come live or visit Thailand or similar country, are you serious about the comments you have made? Do you understand what has happened and what is happening in Thailand and similar countries.
But then again wtf do i know i live in ukraine! If any of you think this or thailand is Walmart or Tesco, probably you know better than Sev x
I aint flaming anyone, just an opinion on a saturday night!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sounds good to me. Pussy will be cheaper because of a weaker BHT and the supply will be greater than the demand. You can be sure the always paranoid Japanese won't step foot in Bangkok in December/January, and consequently won't be driving up the price of getting laid.
Personally, I arrive on 12/25 and depart 1/2, and I look for things to be cleared by then. The Thai economy can't afford a bunch of political misfits to wreck it during the height of the tourist season.
There is a better chance the thrifty Opebo will be spending the holidays in Bangkok at a discount rate. I look forward to his reports.
....
The police are doing the right thing, after the lawyers, doctors, media, many ISG members, all complained the action last time was too violent, they are now trying a zero violence campaign.
Yes, go and talk to them nicely each day and see if they will move along, and if not then try again tomorrow.
They will have to do this until the media, lawyers, ISG members are all screaming out to go in and beat the crap out of the PAD, and then they can with full backing of everyone.
So, perhaps January before the airport opens again ? LOL :)
The reason why the police is so nice to the demonstrators is because the military supports these demonstrators. And the police would get into a lot of trouble if the military stages another coup.
The government doesn't control the military. And that's why no one can do much about the demonstrators. It's the military who have the real power and not the government.
I think the PAD demonstrators are basically representing the interests of the military. And the reason why the military has decided to make all this trouble now is to prevent the government from changing the Thai Constitution back the way it was before the coup.
One of the main election promises of the present government was that they would change the constitution back the way it was after they get elected. They've started the process of fulfilling this election promise. And that's when the PAD started their demonstrations and occupations.
This is basically competition for power and control between the army and the majority of the people. And there is no easy way to resolve this dispute. Because neither side will back down as a matter of principle.
I'm afraid that the present trouble is just the beginning of much worse things to come.
Utter nonsense.
The police and military hate each other.
The reason the police are being "so nice" is they do not want to do anything due to all the bad press last time they used tear gas AND
The constitution court will hurry up and rush through the dissolution order against the PPP, Chart Thai and maybe one other party on Dec 2nd.
So with the present governments party going to be dissolved on Dec 2nd, who in the police force wants to take any action ahead of all the changes that will happen, and also knowing that the PAD will CLAIM that the courts verdict is actually all due to them, and so they WIN and will walk away from the airport.
So given this is all going to happen on the 2nd Dec, there is a lot of people not wanting to do anything, and just waiting for the courts verdicts (known already to be against the PPP as its a kangaroo court) and then they will all claim victory.
Yes, its very sad, but the courts are now under the control of certain powerful people, and will make a verdict on Dec 2nd. A verdict against the PPP party.
After the PPP becomes history like the TRT, we will then have a period of nothing, before the PAD comes back out against the new PT party (Peau Thai). As PT will be the likely replacement of PPP, as the PPP was the replacement for the TRT.
This is not about constitution changes or anything else, its the old Bangkok corrupt elite who can no longer win power through elections. So they want elections to be over ruled and go to an appointed system, where they have the power back.
They should be called the PAD. Pricks Against Democracy. Really, as they want to enforce a non-democratic system, where their friends are the ones in power. Against corruption? They actually want more and more of it, but on their terms.
The reason why the police is so nice to the demonstrators is because the military supports these demonstrators. And the police would get into a lot of trouble if the military stages another coup.
The government doesn't control the military. And that's why no one can do much about the demonstrators. It's the military who have the real power and not the government.
I think the PAD demonstrators are basically representing the interests of the military. And the reason why the military has decided to make all this trouble now is to prevent the government from changing the Thai Constitution back the way it was before the coup.
One of the main election promises of the present government was that they would change the constitution back the way it was after they get elected. They've started the process of fulfilling this election promise. And that's when the PAD started their demonstrations and occupations.
This is basically competition for power and control between the army and the majority of the people. And there is no easy way to resolve this dispute. Because neither side will back down as a matter of principle.
I'm afraid that the present trouble is just the beginning of much worse things to come.
Lover Boy #2
11-30-08, 09:11
B-bird. You ain't seen nothing yet. Look for the baht to fall another 10% bare minimum as tourists become afraid to come to los because they might not be able to get back home
I predict at least another 25% drop in tourists and new years will be a ghost town
Sorry to be so negative, but the handwriting is on the wall.
The relative strength of the baht is near amazing at this point. I marvel at how it has, for the most part, kept it's value. One would think that with all the problems in the south and now this....that the baht would be at least 20-30% lower than where it is right now. I just don't understand it....lucky I am not a currency trader. My currency trader friend says the baht will fall bigtime as the weeks go by.
M P Lurker
11-30-08, 09:56
I am not picking this post out deliberately but!! it raises the hecles a little, come live or visit Thailand or similar country, are you serious about the comments you have made? Do you understand what has happened and what is happening in Thailand and similar countries.
But then again wtf do i know i live in ukraine! If any of you think this or thailand is Walmart or Tesco, probably you know better than Sev x
I aint flaming anyone, just an opinion on a saturday night!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Whats the matter with you? Lighten up. P4P is a business and pussy is a commodity for sale. If you are not comfortable with this then you should not read the Forum.
These things are subject to various economic and political pressures and are discussed in this way with various specualtion but seriousness. Its not all a big joke.
Thai girls are very serious about it when struggling to pay the rent and feed the families.
RCA Knight
11-30-08, 10:18
The PAD terrorists are basically Thai king's thugs just like the Thai army, the funding directly from king's wife and his kids, the king knows very well these affairs and he fully supports these thugs, its very well known by and well inflormed to many international human rights organization. Asian Human Rights Commission has tons of inside reports from PAD informants, the king's wife is the chief sponsor of these terrorists.
The motive of all these, to struggle to hold on to their power, god-like prestige, wealth, and to continue to manipulate the poor masses in the post Thai king era. I think its about time UN Human Rights Commission, Asian Human Rights Commission ect to publicize and inform the world of these evil acts.
SexWithSmile
11-30-08, 11:11
Sending thousands of people to occupy the airport is not a surprise move. Any decent intelligence service would have put some informers in the crowd, and any police would have a few units and water canons available for blocking the way to the airport, if necessary. And considering the few airport access roads, this should not have been difficult. How could they fail to plan for this? Either the police (and government) are 250% incompetent, or allied to the PAD. Tourists are resilient and forgetful if everything goes back to normal within a week. Hoping business sense will be back soon.
The relative strength of the baht is near amazing at this point. I marvel at how it has, for the most part, kept it's value. One would think that with all the problems in the south and now this....that the baht would be at least 20-30% lower than where it is right now. I just don't understand it....
Lover Boy #2,
Correct, quite surprising, that we don't get real Baht weekness. More surprising, the Thai stock market moved up last Friday ...
Go ahead, think it through !!!
Giotto
M P Lurker
11-30-08, 14:16
Sounds like U-Tapao airport is being used as a practical alternative to help those trying to leave to a limited extent.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/read.php?newsid=30089785
Ralph Kramden
11-30-08, 15:17
I would call Thailand the Tesco of the world of sex for sale.
China would then almost certainly be called the Wal-Mart.
Sex aside, I could give a rat's ass about the absurd politics of Thailand.
I sure would appreciate OldThaiHand's opinionated comments about the gobblygook nonsense otherwise known as Thai politics.
NicFrenchy
11-30-08, 15:26
I sure would appreciate OldThaiHand's opinionated comments about the gobblygook nonsense otherwise known as Thai politics.
OTH is busy at the Airport right now :D
http://www.ahrchk.net/statements/mainfile.php/2008statements/1779/
.
what's the matter with you people? - THAKSIN was a police general before he became PM. PPP is TRT reincarnated. PAD is essentially an arm of the ARMY. The generals are thinking that having the police avoid action against PAD is a win-win for them since they want Songchai (who just happens to be Thaksin's brother in law) OUT anyway so he can't allow this situation to continue... but can he stop it? PROBABLY NOT!
Thinking that the POLICE are allied with PAD is just plain WRONG.
This is a PERFECT example of Thais shooting themselves in the foot - BOTH FEET AT ONCE.
The PAD terrorists are ...........RK, what you have written you are brave to write, and indeed you have hit the nail on the head.
We in Thailand are unable to write this, even though we all know its "nail on the head" stuff, we just cannot do it.
Many Thai's also know what you say, and they too avoid saying anything, this is why you will see so many avoid politics and just take no side. They are unable to air their real voice, but they will in time, when that day happens, but not before out of respect for the man himself, but when the time comes its the lady and the eldest son, then this is the time the average person will no longer be so quiet about all the events.
Sending thousands of people to occupy the airport is not a surprise move. Any decent intelligence service would have put some informers in the crowd, and any police would have a few units and water canons available for blocking the way to the airport, if necessary. And considering the few airport access roads, this should not have been difficult. How could they fail to plan for this? Either the police (and government) are 250% incompetent, or allied to the PAD. Tourists are resilient and forgetful if everything goes back to normal within a week. Hoping business sense will be back soon.
You're right it would have been very easy to stop them - except that the military was responsible for permitting PAD to take the airport, not the police, and this is indicates the alliance of the People Against Democracy with the military.
You're right it would have been very easy to stop them - except that the military was responsible for permitting PAD to take the airport, not the police, and this is indicates the alliance of the People Against Democracy with the military.Washburn,
Not necessarily. The government might have considered this PAD move as a huge mistake, so the Police was ordered not to stop them!
Giotto
....
So given this is all going to happen on the 2nd Dec, there is a lot of people not wanting to do anything, and just waiting for the courts verdicts (known already to be against the PPP as its a kangaroo court) and then they will all claim victory.
Yes, its very sad, but the courts are now under the control of certain powerful people, and will make a verdict on Dec 2nd. A verdict against the PPP party....
The basic flaw of your argument is that no court will likely ban elections in Thailand altogether and install the military as the permanent government.
And as long as there are elections. The majority of the people will keep electing a government that represents their views. And it doesn't really matter who exactly these representatives are.
The conflict in Thailand will go on regardless of what the courts decide. The courts can only delay some of the conflict for a relatively short period time.
When the majority of the people believe that they have a legitimate right to rule according to the laws of the country. Then very likely they will never give up their claim to power.
And when many other people have decided that the laws of the country are bad and they are not going to obey them regardless of what anyone says. Then you end up with a never-ending conflict, similar to the one that has been going on in Burma for many decades.
what's the matter with you people?
...
Dinghy,
We have the tendency to a very simplistic view of things here in this thread :) ... I stick to my opinion that things are very complex, and getting more complex at the moment (TT, sorry!).
The rift is going through all the Thai society. That includes the army and the police. There are parts of the army and Generals supporting the PPP, though the majority might sympathize with the PAD. And parts of the police takes side for the PAD (e.g. the fired Police Chief), though the majority might still be with the PPP (as mentioned: Thaksins roots are in the Police) at the moment. This strength of the factions is shifting all the time, depending on the news: After the violent Oct. 7th demonstration the support shifted towards the PAD, and now it shifts towards the PPP.
It's absurd and stupid to seize the airport. The damage for the economy and the tourism is immense. The PAD leaders should know what risk they took to lose the support of every influential faction in Thailand. They also know that they break laws with this measure, to occupy the airport (btw. as well as the government house) is at least an offense against the laws relating to civil disorder and rioting, a violation of public peace. I think they knew what they did. Why did they take this risk?
A complete different approach of reviewing the conflict:
Based on the news we read every day we outsiders have to come to the conclusion that all this is about a conflict between two major parties: the PPP and the PAD (or alternatively between the actual government and the PAD). Is that so? Don’t we forget something?
There is the Democratic Party, strong in the South and in Bangkok, representing the old elite, old rich families. Parts of them support the PAD, too, other try to stay neutral. They could make the difference, if they wanted to, giving back the mandates as MPs and forcing the parliament to be resolved. But up to now they did not do it. Why not?
There are supporters of a military coup, within the military, but also in parts of the population. But – no action. Why not?
There is a person in Thailand who only needs to speak one time, and the seizure of the airport would end within minutes (not the rift within the population). But he did not speak up to now. Why not?
Let’s have a look at the important news of the past few weeks, and the upcoming events:
- Thaksins announcement to return to politics
- The government orders the police not to use any force against the PAD
- Court decision about the dissolution of the PPP and other parties next week
- There is an important birthday – next week.
Last but not least - what choice do the real powerful people in this country have at the moment?
If they support the PAD and force the PM to resign or resolve the parliament they support the undemocratic and illegal actions of the PAD – how to avoid that it happens again, if some people dislike a future government or its policies? And if they support the government to stay in office and force the PAD to give up their protests, then they pave the way for a prolongation of the corrupt politics of the past years manifested by small donations to the poor people of the North ...
Finally – there is a rumour going around since approximately three weeks:
A member of the Royal Family considers to change sides, or changed sides already.
OK then, put the puzzle pieces together!
Giotto
PS.:
- To talk about “the K..gs thugs” is disrespectful, tendentious and simply shows stupidity.
- The courts are not that bad at all at the moment, the Civil Court e.g. issued an injunction ordering an end to the PADs occupation of the airport.
- If we talk about the old corrupt elite we should not forget to talk about the new corrupt elite...
There is the Democratic Party, strong in the South and in Bangkok, representing the old elite, old rich families. Parts of them support the PAD, too, other try to stay neutral. They could make the difference, if they wanted to, giving back the mandates as MPs and forcing the parliament to be resolved. But up to now they did not do it. Why not?
The Democratic Party has a long and honorable tradition of doing nothing, which has obviously served them very well as they are the oldest extant party in the country by far. Inaction may not win battles, but it means no one has any motivation to dissolve.
A member of the Royal Family considers to change sides, or changed sides already.
This I'm very curious about, Giotto.. I haven't heard this rumor. Which member?
- To talk about “the K..gs thugs” is disrespectful, tendentious and simply shows stupidity.
Perhaps a better term for speaking truths too bluntly is 'tactless', Giotto. But you may be right, they may be someone elses thugs, and only appear to be h.s thugs.
...
Perhaps a better term for speaking truths too bluntly is 'tactless', Giotto.
...
Example for a simplistic view of things ...
You know the truth, right? Then you can for sure solve the puzzle...
Giotto
I'm in a big hamletic dilemma: to go, or not to go? My flight to Bangkok scheduled for the 27th of november have been postponed to the 2nd of december and it has been re-routed to Chiang Mai. On one hand, no problem: I have been to CM twice and I love that town. On the other hand, this is totally upsetting my travel plans. Well, I could spend some days in CM and then try to come to Bangkok. I did it before, but only by plane, so I have a question: is there a reasonably confortable train from CM to BKK? I usually don't like travelling by train, but if I can find a good sleeping coach, that could help much. My return flight is on december 18th from Bangkok but trying to guess what's going to happen by then is really difficult for me. Better ask a (mis)fortune teller, or not?
Just in case if I finally decide to go (otherwise I'm going to lose a fair amount of money on a cancelled flight) I finally could try the amenities of the Livingston's Lodge. What's the booking situation there at the moment?
ManonsanBoy
11-30-08, 21:50
I know very little about Thai politics but this is my take on the mess;
The Bangkok elite and middle class (part) just cannot accept that a democratically elected government should govern without their blessing. No one has come up with any evidence of fraud in the election. So Thaksin, a legitimately elected PM was removed, then a new election held with a constitution basically written by the Bangkok elite and the old alliance returned. So now, the Bangkok elite are at it again...............trying to remove a democratically elected government.
Am I wrong? Corruption, my ass. It is a power grab, by the elite over the electoral wishes of the peasants and country folk.
They should amass and march on Bangkok.
The PAD has broken many laws with its illegal protests and occupations. And the fact that the courts haven't done anything to disband and ban this party shows their bias.
Perhaps there was some corruption by Mr. Thaksin. But what the PAD has done is far worse.
Terry Terrier
11-30-08, 23:08
I stick to my opinion that things are very complex, and getting more complex at the moment (TT, sorry!).
No need to apologise, G. Your reports since you stopped being the PAD's ISG apologist have been informative and generally excellent. But the bigger picture is still quite simple: Bangkok's Old Money is fighting Thailand's New Money for control of the gravy train that is Thailand's economy and underpaid workforce.
Terry Terrier
11-30-08, 23:21
The PAD has broken many laws with its illegal protests and occupations. And the fact that the courts haven't done anything to disband and ban this party shows their bias.
Perhaps there was some corruption by Mr. Thaksin. But what the PAD has done is far worse.
Dan, the PAD are not a political party. They are the partly-civilian representatives of the army leadership and The Family That Should Not Be Discussed, who are hiding behind a naive protest.
Terry Terrier
11-30-08, 23:27
OTH is busy at the Airport right now :D
OTH doesn't support the PAD.
Terry Terrier
11-30-08, 23:31
I know very little about Thai politics but this is my take on the mess;
The Bangkok elite and middle class (part) just cannot accept that a democratically elected government should govern without their blessing. No one has come up with any evidence of fraud in the election. So Thaksin, a legitimately elected PM was removed, then a new election held with a constitution basically written by the Bangkok elite and the old alliance returned. So now, the Bangkok elite are at it again...............trying to remove a democratically elected government.
Am I wrong? Corruption, my ass. It is a power grab, by the elite over the electoral wishes of the peasants and country folk.
They should amass and march on Bangkok.
You got it about right.
Dan, the PAD are not a political party. They are the partly-civilian representatives of the army leadership and The Family That Should Not Be Discussed, who are hiding behind a naive protest.
When a political party doesn't call itself a political party. Then this doesn't mean that it's above the law and it can do whatever it wants.
The law should apply equally to everyone regardless of what people choose to call their political organizations.
I'm sure that Al-Qaida also doesn't call itself a terrorist organization. But does this mean that anti-terrorist laws shouldn't apply to Al-Qaida?
It's the actions and not the name that determines what an organization is.
...
Just in case if I finally decide to go (otherwise I'm going to lose a fair amount of money on a cancelled flight) I finally could try the amenities of the Livingston's Lodge. What's the booking situation there at the moment?Boccaccio,
Occupation is low, the travellers which are stuck due to the airport closeure are still here, but no new arrivals (the airport is closed :) !).
Just get over here, if you can make it.
Reservation via E-Mail: www.livingstones.co.th
Giotto
...
The Bangkok elite and middle class (part) just cannot accept that a democratically elected government should govern without their blessing. No one has come up with any evidence of fraud in the election. So Thaksin, a legitimately elected PM was removed, then a new election held with a constitution basically written by the Bangkok elite and the old alliance returned. So now, the Bangkok elite are at it again...............trying to remove a democratically elected government.
...
Manonsanboy,
You skipped some details: When Thaksin was democratically elected first there were no protests, which means in your terminology that the "Bangkok elite and middle class" abviously accepted that government. The protests and finaly the coup happened after the dimension of the self-enrichment and corruption of the Thaksin administration became obvious in his second term.
Giotto
No need to apologise, G. Your reports since you stopped being the PAD's ISG apologist have been informative and generally excellent. But the bigger picture is still quite simple: Bangkok's Old Money is fighting Thailand's New Money for control of the gravy train that is Thailand's economy and underpaid workforce.Terry Terrier,
Thank you. I hope I understand this correctly - the closer my expressed political opinion matches your opinion the better my reports are, correct :) ?
Giotto
Now, after so many analysing reports here in this thread - I am surprised that one issue was not mentioned up to now.
Is nobody aware outside Thailand, that all this conflict might have something to do with the succession problem?
Giotto
People like Giotto like to skim over things and ignore them.
Remember the TRT forcing all tollways to be checked with people outside logging numbers of cars. This was against old Bangkok corrupt elite. We all know the skim millions everyday from tollway fee's. Someone tried to stop it. Remember TRT trying to change the old Army elite.
No. We should not say "New Corrupt Elite" but we should say "those who tried to tackle the old corrupt elite".
The old corrupt have slung shit at Thaksin and TRT, and the old saying goes, throw enough and some will stick eventually.
It was their only way against Thaksin and TRT, make them appear corrupt too.
So take anything Giotto says with a large pinch of salt, its biased and represents only his opinion, and he has not been in Thailand long enough to know more in depth about the country and the way it works.
During the first term attempts were made to corrupt Thaksin, to corrupt his regime. BUT notice the airport got finished and other work got done, and despite a few TRT falling by the wayside, he did clear up drugs, he did clear up a lot of corrupt people and their "old corrupt ways".
By the second term, all his enemies, old and new, joined hands and started a massive campaign, still going today, to discredit him, to make up corruption allegations against him, and to get rid of him, so they could return to their old corrupt ways.
Ask Thai's if the lady and her son are behind the PAD, most Thai's will say yes they are, they know that, but what can they do.
Manonsanboy,
You skipped some details: When Thaksin was democratically elected first there were no protests, which means in your terminology that the "Bangkok elite and middle class" abviously accepted that government. The protests and finaly the coup happened after the dimension of the self-enrichment and corruption of the Thaksin administration became obvious in his second term.
Giotto
Now, after so many analysing reports here in this thread - I am surprised that one issue was not mentioned up to now. Is nobody aware outside Thailand, that all this conflict might have something to do with the succession problem? Giotto
Yes.
>>>Excerpt below from: Connors MK (forthcoming) "Four Elections and a Coup D’etat: Giving Democracy a Break in Thailand", Australian Journal of International Affairs.
"He" can do wrong
"It is sometimes claimed that Thailand’s current crisis is about the impending succession to the throne. The incumbent, King Bhumibol is 80 years old. The most likely but by no means certain successor to the throne is Prince Vajiralongkorn, rumoured to be, or to have been, close to Thaksin. The coup, in this account, aimed to block a Thaksin-influenced succession (Handley, 2006b 424-5; 2006a) Like much analysis surrounding the monarchy, this is speculative but also plausible."
Source: http://sovereignmyth.********.com/
>>Hint: add and reassemble: b l o g s p o t -- where the asterisks are
Also, the word from the street today: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24731325-25837,00.html
Now, after so many analysing reports here in this thread - I am surprised that one issue was not mentioned up to now.
Is nobody aware outside Thailand, that all this conflict might have something to do with the succession problem?
GiottoWell, things usually are not as they look on the surface... Could this be an interesting approach to the problem you mention, to help us farangs in having a more in-depth view or not?
http://www.opinionasia.org/ThailandsBiggestQuestionMark
Boccaccio,
Occupation is low, the travellers which are stuck due to the airport closeure are still here, but no new arrivals (the airport is closed :) !).
Just get over here, if you can make it.
Reservation via E-Mail: www.livingstones.co.th
GiottoThank you very much. I planned to stay three days in CM, wait and see. Then I will decide my next move and just in case I will contact you. I still would like to know something more about the train. Is this the best option to come to Bangkok or not?
RCA Knight
12-01-08, 07:06
Giotto, do not over estimate the complexity of this political feud.
Most people said this is old elite agaisnt new elite or rich agaist poor ect, but be absolute precise is monarch against Thaksin.
I will reveal some more stories, believe me I know more stories than most of you, I have my business in Asia in financial consultancy,but I also have another responsibility with certain human rights organization and certain international political watch.
To explain easily the root of all these, the monarch's great fear of rise of Thaksin. Thaksin is the most popular PM in the history, he is the second biggest face in Thailand, his populist policies won the hearts of millions and millions of poors, and he is becoming the new king of Thailand.
The fear of this was so great, the Thai royal family conspired with the Chinese elite group led by Sondhi to form PAD, intend the use of this group to cause political turmoil and then possibly oust him.
The royal family then conspired with the army head Sonthi to stage a coup when Thaksin was in NY. According to a few sources in some human rights organizations, the king and queen paid Sonthi more than 700 millions bahts out of tax payers money, to help stage the coup,and brought army completey their sides.
A few small incidences also angered the king,queen, and his spoiled little brat, some incidences, Thaksin's supporters started to call him HIS MAJESTY, the king knows by then,if he dies, this man will the the MAN of Thailand not his little spoiled brat, this prompted the conspiracy of the coup, and the king aknowledged the coup in 24 hours.
Now, they want to uproot the whole Thaksin foundation, because after all these, Thaksin is still so popular, and he is still the second biggest face in Thailand, the royal family fears if king dies, Thaksin will return as the biggest FACE in the country, the role of monarch will fade away, and eventually becomes a republic.
Okay, the situation is not as complex as you think, the military and police are both in the hands of the monarch, so don't ask why they do not take actions agaisnt the PAD, the monarch and thier cronies will do whatever to secure their place of power post king era, even to destroy the whole economy and foriegn investments in the country, and drive all the Thais into poverty, they do not give a crap, they will use any means including terrorism to hold on to their power and to drive away the second biggest face in Thailand.
I am telling the absolutely truth about this crises, its simplistic crises, and I hope all these Thai old timers have enough moral and conscientious about whats happening there.
Its a grand manipulation and deception of universal scale, but unfortunately all the human rights commisions are too busy with Myanmar, Aceh, Congo, Somalia, Sudan ect, they do not have time to speak out against this anarchy.
Giotto, do not over estimate the complexity of this political feud.
RCA Knight,
Nah, as you described it in your report it is already quite complex ... at least for my small brain. Anyway - I agree with parts of your analysis, that's much closer than anything else i have read here before.
Now, they want to uproot the whole Thaksin foundation, because after all these, Thaksin is still so popular, and he is still the second biggest face in Thailand, the royal family fears if king dies, Thaksin will return as the biggest FACE in the country, the role of monarch will fade away, and eventually becomes a republic.Here we go! It only needs to be added that the role of monarch will NOT ONLY fade away because of Thaksins polularity, but also because the lack of popularity of the official successor! And - the role of the biggest FACE of the country is not really clear yet, but the biggest female FACE of the country seams to be quite active to ensure the succession of her son. Now - as you mentioned - this son is on the other hand said to be close[r] to Thaksin (Thaksin bailed him out of some financial problems). How does that fit into the picture? The rift is obviously also going through The Family ... and that's what creates this nasty situation in which nothing moves to resolve the problem.
Okay, the situation is not as complex as you think, the military and police are both in the hands of the monarch, so don't ask why they do not take actions agaisnt the PAD, That's not correct! The police took action against the PAD on Oct. 7th. It is definitely more complex than that.
Giotto
LittleBigMan
12-01-08, 09:45
E.Appleby,
First, this is the Thailand Board! I made a simple reference to the current situation in Thailand by comparing it to the situation in California. Excuse fucking me for using Prop #8 as a comparsion. If you want to list and go line by line over my remarks knock yourself out! I was only making a general reference (although a bad one) that when someone doesn't get their way they try to force it on someone! I might not have it exactly the way you want me to list it or support it but my comments was exactly what I meant! there has been so many fights over this issue that voters are lost. My comments was a bad reference! you and the other fella come across like I'm anti-gay! I voted against the measure for the record!
Now as far as I'm concern you want to continue your comments go to the USA forum.
LBM
... I am telling the absolutely truth about this crises, its simplistic crises, and I hope all these Thai old timers have enough moral and conscientious about whats happening there....
This is the best and most acurate analyses that i´ve ever read on this LOS board. Thanks RCA
ManonsanBoy
12-01-08, 13:07
Manonsanboy,
You skipped some details: When Thaksin was democratically elected first there were no protests, which means in your terminology that the "Bangkok elite and middle class" abviously accepted that government. The protests and finaly the coup happened after the dimension of the self-enrichment and corruption of the Thaksin administration became obvious in his second term.
Giotto
Really, where is the evidence? A PM who got piad a little doing cooking shows on TV. Natural justice, is this?
the thai armed forces and police are deeply divided, not too much by principles but rather by high stake interest groups, that do tend to balance each other. this is what explains why the situation could become what it is and not get resolved by force, at lease not yet. the royals are certainly part of the game but by no means do they rule it.
i think that there is a tendency to overestimate the power and influence of the family. like the rest of the thai institutions, it must be split in various factions that sort of check each other. the other thing is that a monarchy is based solely on prestige, which is a powerful but very tricky one shot weapon. you are strong as long as you do not use it and hold it loaded in your supposedly firm hand. if you shoot and miss, then you are naked and powerless. let’s assume that he is not behind the pad, that he is still healthy enough and free to act autonomously, would he want to risk the prestige of his entire reign in one speech that might not be followed by the expected result? anyhow, when was hm seen last in public ? we cannot even be sure that he is still with us. and there is no certainty that there will be a speech on dec 5.
there are historic precedents to consider too. emperor hiro hito was a living god in 1945 japan. yet, some of his entourage wanted to kill him and replace him by another puppet to prevent him surrendering to the allies after 2 atomic bombs. the other part of his entourage persuaded him to record his famous surrender speech and then swiftly removed him to a secure place to prevent his assassination. or consider the king of kings, haile selassie of ethiopia, once a living god as well and removed from power to be a frail old man in a cell, to be murdered by officers of his own bodyguards. there are circumstances in which the unthinkable transgression of the most sacred taboos becomes possible, at least to ruthless and determined men of power.
Manonsanboy, You skipped some details: When Thaksin was democratically elected first there were no protests, which means in your terminology that the "Bangkok elite and middle class" abviously accepted that government. The protests and finaly the coup happened after the dimension of the self-enrichment and corruption of the Thaksin administration became obvious in his second term. Giotto
Isn’t it rather that the old gang once thought that it would be clever to let the steam off a bit by letting a populist leader who could talk to the masses become the PM, as long as he behaved and did not threaten the established order? Then the creature escaped the control of the puppet masters. They got frightened and removed him, but it seems that something was changed forever in the Kingdom.
Anyhow, at this point, Thaksin is not an obvious part of the equation. Even if he is as evil as some seem to believe he is, he is not the PM anymore and the current government seemed to do a rather good job until it was derailed by the PAD onslaught.
I concur with those who say that what we see is first and foremost a power grab effort in the context of a delicate succession issue. I am very worried. Anything can happen.
I know very little about Thai politics but this is my take on the mess;
The Bangkok elite and middle class (part) just cannot accept that a democratically elected government should govern without their blessing. No one has come up with any evidence of fraud in the election. So Thaksin, a legitimately elected PM was removed, then a new election held with a constitution basically written by the Bangkok elite and the old alliance returned. So now, the Bangkok elite are at it again...............trying to remove a democratically elected government.
Am I wrong? Corruption, my ass. It is a power grab, by the elite over the electoral wishes of the peasants and country folk.
They should amass and march on Bangkok.ManonsanBoy, you should speak a little bit with Farangs married with a Thai woman and living in a small village in Northeastern Thailand where lives Thaksin's (and TRT / PPP) main electoral base. I know quite a few (6 or 7 dozens actually), and almost all of them already have witnessed (or were reported by their wife) cases of vote buying (or attempts) by local candidates' representatives / supporters from (probably all) the major political parties during (again, probably all) the past elections.
Thaksin was not democratically elected. His predecessors and his successors to date were not democratically elected either. Vote buying is still a reality in this country, hence, speaking about a "democratically elected government" in Thailand is just a joke.
By the way and for what it's worth, I've heard an explanation that is very similar to RCA Knight's story about the genesis of the latest military coup.
Really, where is the evidence? A PM who got piad a little doing cooking shows on TV. Natural justice, is this?ManonsanBoy,
I think you are mixing things up. Thailands first cooking clown was Samak, not Thaksin...
Giotto
PS: Just an example how and in what dimension Thaksin acted: He ordered/urged a Thai bank to give an [additional] 3 billion THB loan to Myanmar, that telecommunication equipment could be bought by the burmese goverment from one of his companies. And [some upcoming replies will show] all this can of course be interpreted and sold to the public as a normal business transaction.
The Thai armed forces and police are deeply divided, not too much by principles but rather by high stake interest groups, that do tend to balance each other. This is what explains why the situation could become what it is and not get resolved by force, at lease not yet. The Royals are certainly part of the game but by no means do they rule it.
Seydlitz,
That's exactly how I understand the actual situation, too.
Isn’t it rather that the old gang once thought that it would be clever to let the steam off a bit by letting a populist leader who could talk to the masses become the PM, as long as he behaved and did not threaten the established order? Then the creature escaped the control of the puppet masters. They got frightened and removed him, but it seems that something was changed forever in the Kingdom.
Speculation, but most likely.
Giotto
and there is no certainty that there will be a speech on dec 5.i think it's almost a certainty that there won't be, since i believe his speech is on the evening of dec. 4.
Errrrrrr could we have the proof then of this "order" or "urging" of the bank. Where is it documented? Are there written documents by Thaksin?
Or did someone make up this little story and associate it with Thaksin, spread it into a hot media that was wound up and ready to pump the story?
If there was "proof" then it would not take years for court trials to find him guilty, and those trials would not have to rely solely on the testaments of others to indite him.
However, if the "corruption" allegations were made up by the sponsors of Team Yellow. Then yes, it takes a long time, and also some pressure on the judiciary, to find them guilty.
ManonsanBoy,
I think you are mixing things up. Thailands first cooking clown was Samak, not Thaksin.
Giotto
PS: Just an example how and in what dimension Thaksin acted: He ordered/urged a Thai bank to give an [additional] 3 billion THB loan to Myanmar, that telecommunication equipment could be bought by the burmese goverment from one of his companies. And [some upcoming replies will show] all this can of course be interpreted and sold to the public as a normal business transaction.
ManonsanBoy
12-01-08, 20:58
The regime anciens days are not over but the peasants from up country finally has a voice. By western philosophical norms, Thai culture is sublimely fuzzy, even hypocritical. The institutionised corruption that supports this regime is galling.
The generals and police would have gone in had they have the support of the people. The Thai generals are not much use at anything but coups. Thai military history is mostly about lost wars. In the 1970's, the he who shall not be named asked how long will Thai resistance last if the vietnamese decided to cut across cambodia towards Bangkok. He was told, 4 days.
ManonsanBoy
12-01-08, 21:02
The current Thai is rather remarkable. However, I do not see a great successor. However, the Thai people need their monarchy; otherwise the society will tear itself apart.
By the way, Thai smile at farangs. But do not think they like you.
Pedro Chilli
12-01-08, 21:54
By the way, Thai smile at farangs. But do not think they like you.
Manonsanboy, dont be so cynical. Just look at all the beauty around you in the world. Pedro
Terry Terrier
12-01-08, 22:32
Now, after so many analysing reports here in this thread - I am surprised that one issue was not mentioned up to now.
Is nobody aware outside Thailand, that all this conflict might have something to do with the succession problem?
Giotto
It's a story that's been 'doing the rounds' recently. I'd thought that such discussions were out-of-bounds on ISG, but, what the hell!, they seem to be going on anyway. This one would certainly make sense. The Mother appears to be very active lately.
That's not correct! The police took action against the PAD on Oct. 7th.
Weren't the Border Police brought in to do the dirty deed?
Khun Larry
12-02-08, 00:08
Manonsanboy, dont be so cynical. Just look at all the beauty around you in the world. Pedro
Lets try not to be so politically correct here. Thais are low life and will kill any farang for 10,00 baht. Always use caution when dealing with Thais and unless you have years of experience in Thailand never drink with Thai men.
ManonsanBoy, you should speak a little bit with Farangs married with a Thai woman and living in a small village in Northeastern Thailand where lives Thaksin's (and TRT / PPP) main electoral base. I know quite a few (6 or 7 dozens actually), and almost all of them already have witnessed (or were reported by their wife) cases of vote buying (or attempts) by local candidates' representatives / supporters from (probably all) the major political parties during (again, probably all) the past elections....
I don't think PPP needed to do much vote buying during the last election. They've already persuaded most poor people to vote for their party by creating a lot of social programs that helped the poor during Mr. Thaksin's rule. Nearly free health-care was one of them. And there was lots of other help for the poor.
Mr.Thaksin and his party are so popular in Isaan and other parts of Thailand not because they've bought the votes but because they've helped the poor a lot when they were in government.
Perhaps some PPP party officials gave some booze or small handouts to people to encourage them to go and vote. But I doubt any of those people needed any persuasion about who to vote for.
I think PPP and Mr. Thaksin have a lot of genuine support among the poor masses of Thailand. And this makes me scared about what might happen next in Thailand.
The PAD represents the middle class. And their recent actions to cut off Thailand from foreigners and tourists doesn't make sense for business and for their own self-interests. Unless they are doing this in cahoots with the military in order to prepare Thailand for widespread bloodshed and intimidation of the poor. They don't want to have a lot of shocked foreigners witnessing this kind of thing.
There is only one way a minority can rule over the majority. Which is through widespread intimidation and violence. And Thailand doesn't need to look far to find an example of how to do it. Burma has been doing this for years. And China did the same at the Tiananmen square in 1989.
I don't think PPP needed to do much vote buying during the last election. They've already persuaded most poor people to vote for their party by creating a lot of social programs that helped the poor during Mr. Thaksin's rule. Nearly free health-care was one of them. And there was lots of other help for the poor.
Mr.Thaksin and his party are so popular in Isaan and other parts of Thailand not because they've bought the votes but because they've helped the poor a lot when they were in government.
Perhaps some PPP party officials gave some booze or small handouts to people to encourage them to go and vote. But I doubt any of those people needed any persuasion about who to vote for.It is true that Thaksin and the TRT party were already very popular in 2005 (when Thaksin was re-elected) in I-San and that they probably spent less than during the previous major election that time, but vote buying didn't stop anyway (again, initiated by candidates from all parties) and is still prevalent nowadays.
http://www.aseanaffairs.com/thailand_politics_election_fraud_probe_panel_finds_close_thaksin_aide_violated_election_law
I know one Thai sub-district chief in the Udon Thani province. He's very sympathetic and popular, seems to be a hard worker (and his work is appreciated by his local electoral base), and I dare to say that he's (relatively) honest, but he did "secure" his election too with vote buying (because other candidates were doing so, and moreover, the great majority of rural Thai voters during election time would just take into account what they can earn then, and not what the benefits of a policy may be in the long term).
In the process of this nasty and cynical business, in which the Thai people remain largely manipulated and powerless over their own destiny, blood will eventually flow until one side or the other wins what’s left of the smouldering heap of what was once not a bad place to live.
Good analysis.
My TGF keeps trying to tell me all will be well in a few days, but I think even she thinks what you predict. She just won't admit it to me. And you hit it dead nuts on about the feelings for the son versus the daughter.
All of this is sort like watching a train wreck slowly start to happen. You hope in the end it all turns out ok, but you know it probably won't. When the TGF starts bugging me for money to go out and buy more rice and water just in case, you know something bad may be coming. But in the best Thai tradition it would be a loss of face to admit things in the land of smiles are not perfect despite the obivious.
Good analysis.
My TGF keeps trying to tell me all will be well in a few days, but I think even she thinks what you predict. She just won't admit it to me. And you hit it dead nuts on about the feelings for the son versus the daughter.
All of this is sort like watching a train wreck slowly start to happen. You hope in the end it all turns out ok, but you know it probably won't. When the TGF starts bugging me for money to go out and buy more rice and water just in case, you know something bad may be coming. But in the best Thai tradition it would be a loss of face to admit things in the land of smiles are not perfect despite the obivious.
...And Chicken Little said: "The sky is falling, the sky is falling" ...
Errrrrrr could we have the proof then of this "order" or "urging" of the bank. Where is it documented? Are there written documents by Thaksin?
Or did someone make up this little story and associate it with Thaksin, spread it into a hot media that was wound up and ready to pump the story?
If there was "proof" then it would not take years for court trials to find him guilty, and those trials would not have to rely solely on the testaments of others to indite him.
However, if the "corruption" allegations were made up by the sponsors of Team Yellow. Then yes, it takes a long time, and also some pressure on the judiciary, to find them guilty.Sadly - Thaksin's own Foreign Minister testified against him...
From Bangkokpost, 01.05.2007 (!!!):
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/search/read.php?newsid=30033105&keyword=loan+to+myanmar
...
Former foreign minister Surakiart Sathirathai, a key member of Thaksin Shinawatra's Thai Rak Thai Party, told the Assets Examination Committee (AEC) yesterday the former premier gave an order to lend Bt4 billion to the Burmese junta in spite of his objections, according to a source.
...
Giotto
I’m coming out of my self-imposed exile from ISG just this once, to comment on the rather lively debate about the back-story of the succession struggle. To put it bluntly, it is all true, and definitely tied directly into the PAD vs. UDD/PPP/Taksin battle.
...
Old Thai Hand,
LOL, nice piece :).
Giotto
Yes, would that be "verbal testimony". And verbal only.
Money Money Money, can make anyone say anything, in a Rich Thai's world.
Sadly - Thaksin's own Foreign Minister testified against him...
From Bangkokpost, 01.05.2007 (!!!):
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/search/read.php?newsid=30033105&keyword=loan+to+myanmar
...
Former foreign minister Surakiart Sathirathai, a key member of Thaksin Shinawatra's Thai Rak Thai Party, told the Assets Examination Committee (AEC) yesterday the former premier gave an order to lend Bt4 billion to the Burmese junta in spite of his objections, according to a source.
...
Giotto
...And Chicken Little said: "The sky is falling, the sky is falling" ...
Unfortunately regardless of whether this thing gets settled peacefully or not, there has been a lot of damage done already to the Thai economy and image. My company often has regional meetings in Bangkok. There were a bunch of people there last week that got caught in this. They have already moved any 2009 meetings scheduled there to other cities. Unfortunately one of the big bosses was in the meeting last week and even though he got out by train, he has told everyone no more meetings in Bangkok while he is in charge.
If it gets violent, it will be a year before my company will let me travel there. And for me that will the sky falling in.
Unfortunately regardless of whether this thing gets settled peacefully or not, there has been a lot of damage done already to the Thai economy and image. My company often has regional meetings in Bangkok. There were a bunch of people there last week that got caught in this. They have already moved any 2009 meetings scheduled there to other cities. Unfortunately one of the big bosses was in the meeting last week and even though he got out by train, he has told everyone no more meetings in Bangkok while he is in charge.
If it gets violent, it will be a year before my company will let me travel there. And for me that will the sky falling in.
I know it's difficult for business right now because of this political crisis, but the whole thing seems confined to Bangkok and it is not really an insurrection or prelude to a civil war IMHO. In Pattaya, one wouldn't know anything was out of hand, except that the service businesses are probably suffering a bit.
Still lots of crowds on Walking Street though.
I'm taking my cue from the coup of 2006, which happened just before my first vist to LOS, and I was worried about what might happen. There was lots of worry then. As it turned out, I had the best time of my life, and it led to my retirement here in paradise. It was quick, bloodless, and accepted by the people without much concern. I think this new "succession problem" will turn out much the same.
The political parasites are simply sorting out their turf right now. This is still a great place to live.
Just heard on the BBC that the Judiciary have declared that the current government are unconstitutional (I think) and have banned the PM and other MPs from holding office for at least five years.
What does this mean in the short term? Does anyone think that this will precipitate the end of the blockade of the airports?
I'm just very curious since I'm booked to fly to BKK on Monday and from a purely selfish point of view I don't want my vacation screwed up.
Expatcat
The Verdict:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/02/headlines/headlines_30089990.php
Giotto
I'm just very curious since I'm booked to fly to BKK on Monday and from a purely selfish point of view I don't want my vacation screwed up.
ExpatcatExpatcat,
I don't want to disappoint you but according to a BKK airport official in an interview with Al Jazeera, it will take about a week for the airport to reopen after the protesters are gone. And as you know, they are not yet gone!
Just heard on the BBC that the Judiciary have declared that the current government are unconstitutional (I think) and have banned the PM and other MPs from holding office for at least five years.
What does this mean in the short term? Does anyone think that this will precipitate the end of the blockade of the airports?
I'm just very curious since I'm booked to fly to BKK on Monday and from a purely selfish point of view I don't want my vacation screwed up.
ExpatcatExpatcat,
I don't want to disappoint you but according to a BKK airport official in an interview with Al Jazeera, it will take about a week for the airport to reopen after the protesters are gone, and as you know, they are not yet gone!
LittleBigMan
12-02-08, 08:38
OTH,
Welcome back, always glad to hear from the professor point of view! Regardless of what the views are I say lets party at Giotto place! Politics and pussy! What you guys say! Can't get home party or just don't want to go home!
Drinks are on Giotto? Where Black!
LBM
Jungle Bluebird
12-02-08, 09:15
No so.. different players, same show. Call it act 2 ..
rename the airport temple of doom. Thai's in general know the full story, but cannot come to terms with it. The 'untouchables' rule now.
Dec 5 its celebration day. Ironic, must be a case of the 'stockholm syndrome' (the hostage thing..)
this will be nasty.. with no high season to talk off... millions will loose their job. but then there are always the soapies for crowd control.
JB
Just heard on the BBC that the Judiciary have declared that the current government are unconstitutional (I think) and have banned the PM and other MPs from holding office for at least five years.
What does this mean in the short term? Does anyone think that this will precipitate the end of the blockade of the airports?
I'm just very curious since I'm booked to fly to BKK on Monday and from a purely selfish point of view I don't want my vacation screwed up.
Expatcat
No so.. different players, same show. Call it act 2 ... JB
So you don't think my chances are very high that it will be resolved by next week?
Do you think that PAD are planning another action that will mean that there will be even more disruption to the status quo? Or, in your opinion will PAD open the airports once they have what they want? Which beggars the question, What DO they want?
Frustrated Expatcat
Jungle Bluebird
12-02-08, 09:43
anything possible... it may take weeks...or is over tomorrow..
its not so much what the PAD wants, rather what their paymasters want. never mind those clowns at the airport..misguided fools, thats all.
JB
So you don't think my chances are very high that it will be resolved by next week?
Do you think that PAD are planning another action that will mean that there will be even more disruption to the status quo? Or, in your opinion will PAD open the airports once they have what they want? Which beggars the question, What DO they want?
Frustrated Expatcat
OTH,
Welcome back, always glad to hear from the professor point of view! Regardless of what the views are I say lets party at Giotto place! Politics and pussy! What you guys say! Can't get home party or just don't want to go home!
Drinks are on Giotto? Where Black!
LBMLBM,
Sounds good to me :) ... wait!
No customer! The airport is closed! Did you hear that? No money in the cash box...I think drinks are better on you :) !
Giotto
well ppp is out. pad need to pack their bags. things will be more clear on king's birthday imho, after his highness speech. hope things will get back to normal bit whatever said this pad action has a long term impact on the thai economy and the thais especially those in the tourism industry.
Well, that's it. the gov't has been brought down by a court ruling. Earliest the airport will open is december 15.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081202/ap_on_re_as/as_thailand_political_unrest
It's over. The protests will end tomorrow 10 am. The airports will need a few more days fully operate, but incoming flights are allowed already.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/02/headlines/headlines_30090031.php
From another article:
"Vudhibhandhu said the board would cooperate with the PAD to check the readiness of the systems and would try to resume services within 24 hours"
Sounds not that bad :) .
Giotto
The People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) on Tuesday accepted the Airports of Thailand (AOT)’s demand to allow incoming flights to use Suvarnabhumi airport after the Constitution Court dissolved the People Power, Chart Thai and Matchimathipataya parties on charges of electoral fraud.
The first incoming flight to the international airport is expected to be within 24 hours. The Airports of Thailand (AOT) announced that Suvarnabhumi will resume full operation on December 15, starting 6pm.
Imlonely67
12-02-08, 14:10
Just heard on the BBC that the Judiciary have declared that the current government are unconstitutional (I think) and have banned the PM and other MPs from holding office for at least five years.
What does this mean in the short term? Does anyone think that this will precipitate the end of the blockade of the airports?
I'm just very curious since I'm booked to fly to BKK on Monday and from a purely selfish point of view I don't want my vacation screwed up.
ExpatcatHooray Hooray. Everything is going back to normal for the time being. My prediction tells me that if the new government is form again with members from current mix government and PAD lost the election, PAD will strike again and make the same issue that the new PM is Thaksin puppet again. And airport will be gone again as they had done it before.
I read from someone article from ISG that this is due to royal involvement, I believe it will happen again. Hope that I am wrong and I wish I am wrong.
...and now everybody believes that this happened because of the court decision against the PPP etc. today ... how come that I don't believe it? Because the outcome of this trial was anyway clear? Hmmm...
Let's play with fiction: Let's assume a preliminary version of the birthday speach leaked through (or "was leaked" through) today ... and something like "I know that you are there at the airport, but you should better not be there" could be found in it...
That would explain the dramatic change of plans/opinion within a single day:
- 1 hour after the verdict the PAD announced that they would not end their protests until all members of the actual cabinet had resigned
- 4 hours later they decided to go home tomorrow, 10 am ...
Imagine what could happen if a phrase like that can really be found in the birthday speach...the expected support not that strong as expected, and the military and the police immediately acting, with all the power they have.
Oh, btw., I heard that parts of the birthday speach leaked through today. But you never know where it comes from, may be the chief cook wrote it.
Good, that the protesters go home tomorrow.
Giotto
Well, very unsurprising, as I posted earlier this week, the 2nd Dec dissolving of the PPP was already known.
Looks like top leaders of Team Yellow agreed with Team Red that the ruling should be made with minimal protest, and in return Team Yellow will call off the protests for a few weeks anyway, just in time for the birthday and Christmas/New Year
Do not get too carried away though.
The TRT which became the PPP will now become the PT party.
PT will elect their prime minister on Monday.
It will be an ex-PPP man.
PAD will start their protests again in a few weeks.
I think the AOT are playing it carefully, no rush to re-open the airport if Team Yellow is straight back on Monday night or another day next week when the new PM is named.
In the meantime, Thailand is at peace for the birthday - what a wonderful coincidence.
ManonsanBoy
12-02-08, 21:03
The other side should now occupy the airport. They should amass 1 million and march on Bangkok. That will show the regime anciens you should respect the will of the people in a fair and monitored election. Close the wretched airport again.
I don't think anything has been resolved today in Thailand. The court decision has only delayed the day of reckoning until some other time.
And I don't think foreigners and tourists are going to be returning to Thailand in large numbers any time soon. Because the PAD is free to take over the airports any time they want. And they've said that they will do the same again if they don't like something about what the elected government does next.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/breakingnews.php?id=135131
Basically, Thailand doesn't have much of a government now. It's not clear who is in charge and who has the authority and the legitimacy to make economic and security decisions in Thailand. Which leaves Thailand vulnerable to terrorist attacks and economic chaos.
Thailand is not yet a failed state the way Somalia is. But it certainly might end up that way if it stays without any government in charge for a long time.
This political conflict will have to be resolved one way or another. And for this reason I think that the worst of this dispute is yet to come.
... That will show the regime anciens you should respect the will of the people in a fair and monitored election...A "fair election"? When did that marvel happen in Thailand?
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/JA09Ae01.html
... Among the main complaints the EC has taken under investigation are charges of alleged vote-buying, a widespread phenomenon in Thailand since the early 1980s, where candidates pay cash to voters ahead of the polls in exchange for their ballots.
At December's poll, some rural voters were given 200 baht (US$6) in unmarked "white envelopes", while the local party campaigners, or vote canvassers, were given 500 baht for every vote secured, a Thai official working for an independent poll monitor, the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL), told Inter Press Service (IPS).
"There was vote-buying in Bangkok, too. One party gave 800 baht per vote to get 500 votes at one polling station," the official claimed. And what about (independent) election monitoring?
... During the same period, the EC also rejected requests by experienced, independent election monitors to help ensure a climate of neutrality at all levels of the polling process. "At a meeting with the elections commission, we requested that there should be neutral organizations and observers to ensure that the election will be free and fair," said Saiyud Kerdphol, secretary-general of the People's Network for Elections in Thailand, a local non-governmental group. "But the commission rejected this proposal." I admit that last year's poll might have been the "less unfair" election so far. Anyway...
... PPP candidates were not the only ones distributing money to poor voters before the poll...
If the "judges" and the "rule of law" are so important.
Why are none of the PAD being arrested and charged over the unlawful things they have done ?
Are they above the law ?
Why is the law not being enforced on them, as it is on the politicians ?
Is the Thai judicial system now completely under the control of the Bangkok Elite and therefore no longer "free and fair" ?
Thailand's judicial system and its laws are now under the microscope, until such time as the law is applied to the PAD members who have broken it. Failure to take any action against the PAD and its members will be the biggest and most admission that "Elite Corruption" is the problem here, not Thaksin and the TRT.
LittleBigMan
12-03-08, 09:04
Giotto,
Well, we got to turn it around for you then. But LBM is still cash poor! So let party up for the airport opening! Call Giotto now for your rooms for the upcoming holidays and new year! Hurry! limited space only!
Wishing you the best this holiday! Even if the PAD did F--k things up!
Latest news from the airline front.
Etihad have informed me that flights will be normal on Monday so I can get back to the LOS for an all too short vacation.
IF there is any further information I'll post. Otherwise I'll be in Pattaya as from Tuesday if anyone would like a drink.
Expatcat
Imlonely67
12-03-08, 13:26
I don't think anything has been resolved today in Thailand. The court decision has only delayed the day of reckoning until some other time.
And I don't think foreigners and tourists are going to be returning to Thailand in large numbers any time soon. Because the PAD is free to take over the airports any time they want. And they've said that they will do the same again if they don't like something about what the elected government does next.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/breakingnews.php?id=135131
Basically, Thailand doesn't have much of a government now. It's not clear who is in charge and who has the authority and the legitimacy to make economic and security decisions in Thailand. Which leaves Thailand vulnerable to terrorist attacks and economic chaos.
Thailand is not yet a failed state the way Somalia is. But it certainly might end up that way if it stays without any government in charge for a long time.
This political conflict will have to be resolved one way or another. And for this reason I think that the worst of this dispute is yet to come.Basically any new party who win the election will be considered as puppet for Thaksin and new siege will come back again. God knows what will happen next but for sure they will siege the airport again.
Article from BangkokPost:
"It means no proxy prime minister, no proxy government of the Thaksin regime. Politicians under the Thaksin regime must be punished, while they [those in power] should work with the people in creating new politics for actual political reform," Mr Sondhi said.
"The PAD will return if another proxy government is formed or anyone tries to amend the constitution or the law to whitewash some politicians or to subdue the monarch's royal authority."
Unless PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul or the movement's co-founder, Chamlong Srimuang is selected as the prime minister then the unrest will go off, if not let’s wait and see what will happen next. I can predict worse scenario will come for LOS.
NicFrenchy
12-03-08, 15:14
I can predict worse scenario will come for LOS.
Really? yeah, let's wait and see
In the meantime, all you tourists can now reach LOS and monger so come on in ;)
It all sounds like a classic case of everyone finding a way out without losing face, but in the end absolutely nothing has changed and most likely the drama will eventually return. The court ruling gave everyone cover to withdraw from their hardened positions.
The fact that a mob can take over a major international airport and be allowed to walk away free and clear shows that there is no real rule of law there. If you are the CEO of an airline, what assurance do you have that the same thing will not happen again. It will be interesting to see if everything really does go back to the way it was. I have a feeling the recovery from this episode will take a long time.
New Election ? There is no new election.
All that happened was 3 opposition parties got dissolved. The MP's remain MP's and (apart from the execs who are banned for 5 years) can join any other party within 60 days.
All the MP's from the 3 parties are now joining Puea Thai, and the PT party will elect a new PM next week.
Thats it, back to exactly where we were before.
On a side issue, if you have a business in Thailand and have been effected by the PAD airport siege, then join Thai Airways and other companies and sue the PAD.
They must be held accountable for their law breaking, and being sued for damages should remind them to obey the law in future.
They have no reason not to be tried, and convicted and made to pay damages.
Should they be "let off" and not be convicted, well I say come back Thaksin, why should you get convicted but the PAD who have now caused more damage to the country that the total amount you are accused of being corrupt over, be let off free of all charges and free of all responsibility.
So anyone effected, sue the ass of the PAD, many Thai companies are going to try.
Basically any new party who win the election will be considered as puppet for Thaksin and new siege will come back again. God knows what will happen next but for sure they will siege the airport again.
The best post on this topic has been removed, prudently I think, as its author is resident in LOS. RCA Knight's is also very worth scrolling down for.
Paul Coelho, in The Alchemist, says struggles for the balance of power - in contrast to battles between good and evil - tend to go on for a long time. I think that we will have to factor PAD into our travel plans for the foreseeable future.
The other side should now occupy the airport. They should amass 1 million and march on Bangkok. That will show the regime anciens you should respect the will of the people in a fair and monitored election. Close the wretched airport again.I think the double standard (or rather the lack of certain types of backers) would mean that the red-shirts would get their heads broken and tossed out on their ears, or would perhaps simply be shot, if they tried to occupy an airport, no? Right wing extremist organizations have always operated with complete impunity in Thailand, but the military have always mowed down the opposite kind.
The funny part about all this (if there is any) is I go to ISG to learn about Thailand politics instead of the BBC.
Imlonely67
12-04-08, 13:31
New Election ? There is no new election.
All that happened was 3 opposition parties got dissolved. The MP's remain MP's and (apart from the execs who are banned for 5 years) can join any other party within 60 days.
All the MP's from the 3 parties are now joining Puea Thai, and the PT party will elect a new PM next week.
Thats it, back to exactly where we were before.
On a side issue, if you have a business in Thailand and have been effected by the PAD airport siege, then join Thai Airways and other companies and sue the PAD.
They must be held accountable for their law breaking, and being sued for damages should remind them to obey the law in future.
They have no reason not to be tried, and convicted and made to pay damages.
Should they be "let off" and not be convicted, well I say come back Thaksin, why should you get convicted but the PAD who have now caused more damage to the country that the total amount you are accused of being corrupt over, be let off free of all charges and free of all responsibility.
So anyone effected, sue the ass of the PAD, many Thai companies are going to try.Sorry for my mistake. Yes, there will be no new election but merely only getting so call a new party to join force and find a new guy to become prime minister, then he will be accuse of a puppet for Thaksin again then siege start again. Hahaha LOL.
But before anything, I hope they will let Christmas holiday be celebrated in PEACE and then what will happen is up to the PAD, the "royal" and the people of Thailand. May GOD bless Thailand.
so, hm did not deliver the traditional speech because of ill health. as far as i understand, the traditional audience did not take place either, so that nobody has even seen hm. if indeed as the bangkok post puts it “his majesty the king is "mildly" sick and cannot deliver his annual birthday-eve speech”, i suppose that a brief appearance in front of tv cameras and even better one of his children reading a royal message would not have been too much to hope for.
instead, we had two separate messages, one from hrh the crown prince maha vajiralongkorn and the other from hrh princess maha chakri sirindhorn, i.e. the two royals closely associated with the struggle that runs across the country.
i am really very worried now.
The funny part about all this (if there is any) is I go to ISG to learn about Thailand politics instead of the BBC.
That is very true. I've learned more here than from any other single source. In fact, much of the nonsense spouted in the mainstream media only makes sense to me in the context of the information I've learned on this forum.
Thai based forums are shackled by Thailand's lese majeste law and often contain little more than self-censored rants and fits of pique, and foreign based media either have no insight into LOS politics, or present a biased view.
Here we have knowledgeable members - and I do not include myself in this illustrious group - with the freedom (with certain caveats concerning the Thai-based) to express their opinions.
Interesting article on the Economist (dot) com entitled: Thailand's king and its crisis: A right royal mess
If you read it, be sure not to skip the comments pages. The back and forth is head spinning!
http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_ID=12724800
www$economist$com/displayStory$cfm?story_ID=12724800
(or substitute dots for the $)
Dec 6, 6.45 pm:Urgent, Suthep announces the Democrat Party will form a new government with former Chat Thai MPs, Newin faction members, Ruamjai Thai Chat Pattana, Puea Paendin and Matchima Thipataya parties.
The whole story:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/06/headlines/headlines_30090182.php
Giotto
Retired Army
12-06-08, 14:59
Dec 6, 6.45 pm:Urgent, Suthep announces the Democrat Party will form a new government with former Chat Thai MPs, Newin faction members, Ruamjai Thai Chat Pattana, Puea Paendin and Matchima Thipataya parties.
The whole story:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/06/headlines/headlines_30090182.php
Giotto
So what's your take on all this? Good or bad?
Worth a read :
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12724832
and
http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1595&Itemid=185&limit=1&limitstart=0
NicFrenchy
12-06-08, 17:11
Khunying Pojaman Shinawatra, ex-wife of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and her daugther, Pintongta, arrived at the Suvarnabhumi International airport at 10:30 pm Friday.
They arrived on Thai Airways International's Flight TG607 from Hong Kong.
so what's your take on all this? good or bad?retired army,
it's saturday night, 10:45 pm, and restaurant and sports lounge are empty! 3 customers! so i appreciate your "easy" questions, then i have something to do right now :) ...
...
background
hmtk missed his birthday speech. did he? if you talk to thais nobody is really worried about his health at the moment. they understand this missing speech as a clear message: neither a trt/ppp backed corrupt and ineffective government nor a government fighting pad which occupies government house and airports will get any support. no advice right now.
some politicians of the coalition obviously got the message. or they were re-thinking the effectiveness of the politics of the last year(s). or some politicians simply remembered that a government should act to the benefit of a country. for whatever reason, some politicians of the actual coalition wanted a change.
the key figure in this game is obviously newin chidchob, ex trt-mp from buriram, banned from politics for 5 years after the coup in 2006. he was one of the closest allies of thaksin! he controls the "friends of newin" faction of about 35 - 40 mps of the dissolved ppp, who usually would be expected to join the puea thai (same thing like trt/ppp, but new name). this faction now decided to support the democrats. but - they will most likely not join the democratic party.
what is an ally worth who once was one of thaksins closest supporter? difficult to say. but changing parties/sides not so unusual here in thailand as it is in many western democracies. we need to remember that thaksins trt also absorbed lots of mps of smaller parties when the party came to power 2000/2001.
chart thai, also dissolved, some mps now want to join the democratic party. that doesn't surprise me at all - this party has no profile at all, it was even home to a highly suspect figure like chuwit kamolvisit (massage parlor king and wonnabe bangkok-governor).
ok, let's say there is definitely a majority of more than 250 mps for some time who supports a government lead by the democratic party.
personalities
abhisit vejjajiva is most likely highly qualified for the pm job - but is he really a strong leader, who can in this situation really make history and turn the thailand ship around? i doubt it.
chuan leekpai was discussed shortly, but he is 70 years old, and also not a strong leader. he was may be the only non-corrupt pm thailand ever had, and he masterminded the reforms after the asian crisis 1997 (the credit for the success of the measures took thaksin). but - also not a strong leader, too old, wrong generation.
on the puea thai side - chalerm yoobamrung (yikes!!!). all other candidates are simply too weak.
odds
i am not even sure that this arrangement (new coalition) will survive the next few days. thaksin has sensed that something was going wrong, and sent his (ex-)wife to bangkok last night. she is said to be a very successful negotiator behind closed doors. let's wait whether newin's friends stick to the new coalition.
last but not least - don't forget the acting prime minister chavarat charnveerakul can dissolve the house!! if it turns out that the puea thai cannot find a majority for their own pm candidate the order from thaksin to do so will come! then the understanding of democracy with suddenly change within the trt/ppp/pt (compared to their stance during the pad demonstrations). the hypocrites will show their real face...but will the voters remember?
another issue: who really wants to take over the goverment in this situation? worldwide economic downturn, recession for thailand on the horizon, tourism and export industry seriously injured by the airport closure. whatever the government does - it is highly doubtful whether the situation of thailand will improve until the next general elections - and then the leading goverment party will get the invoice from the voters, wheter they were responsible for that development or not.
good or bad ?
it's worth a try. politically the democratic party has to prove that they learned from the mistakes of the past. the young leadership of the party can grow with the job - hopefully. as a result they might be able to establish a voters base in the north (besides the traditional bangkok / south base). that would break the backbone of the trt/ppp/pt.
if i look at the alternative - chalerm and trt/ppp/pt ???? that's not a serious question, is it?
giotto
ps:
in the reports below 2 links to articles from the economist can be found. worth to be read in details.
one of those articles criticises hmtk to get involved into politics too deeply not allowing democracy to really develop, the other one criticises him for not getting involved right now.
not that easy to be hmtk :) .
Terry Terrier
12-07-08, 01:27
Some politicians of the coalition obviously got the message. Or they were re-thinking the effectiveness of the politics of the last year(s). Or some politicians simply remembered that a government should act to the benefit of a country. For whatever reason, some politicians of the actual coalition wanted a change.
More cloud cover, G. You are back to your old ways. Some politicians of the dissolved coalition accepted the 40 million Baht bribes on offer from Thailand's Old Money.
The only perceptible good thing to come out of this is that Thailand may have a few months of political stability while the Old Money try to quickly get all the old snouts back at the trough, while the mister 'how to' of Thai corruption regroups. The losers, as always of course, will be the vast majority of people who actually live in country, and their fledgeling rights to control their destinies. But hey! Money talks, and sings,and dances.
More cloud cover, G. You are back to your old ways. Some politicians of the dissolved coalition accepted the 40 million Baht bribes on offer from Thailand's Old Money.Terry,
I'm interested in your inside information from afar. Don't be shy - please tell us more.
Terry Terrier
12-07-08, 01:51
Terry,
I'm interested in your inside information from afar. Don't be shy - please tell us more.
Piper,
Like OTH, I never name my snitches, it's counterproductive. BTW, Giotto is an adult.
More cloud cover, G. You are back to your old ways. Some politicians of the dissolved coalition accepted the 40 million Baht bribes on offer from Thailand's Old Money.
...
Terry Terrier,
You really don't know much about Thailand.
The real old aristocracy, the real influential families and the real "Old Money" will keep their influence on the Thai society independently from which coalition might form a government. Those families have their representatives in all parties, in the army and in the police. And there is NOBODY here in Thailand who would risk a confrontation with this families. And if one really does he better leaves Thailand very fast.
This is not an issue of politics. Thais are extremely obedient, overly respectful, by education, socialization and supported by Buddhism - they learn to be obedient all life long. If a Thai needs to fix a major problem he will suddenly know a "high police" or a "high army". Thais believe that only this "high" people can then help. If the opponent then knows a "higher" person the Thai will not even start to fight, he will simply accept that as destiny and give up.
The B. family was mentioned here already. One of their (smaller) businesses is a lawyer firm, 85 years old. This firm NEVER lost a case up to now. Not in 85 years. And - also not in the 6 years of the Thaksin administration.
This is a general problem of the Thai society, but no new or old government will be able to change that on the short term. For that you need some generations and a completely restructured education system, better schools. I am quite sure that it will change with the modernization of the Thai society, but it will need time.
The interpretation of the actual power struggle as a fight between the "Old Money" and the "New Rich" is in my POV completely overrated. Even the "New Rich" will cover and duck today, at any time, if they have to deal with the old powerful structures. Especially the "New Rich" have learnt to use this structure and to deal with it - otherwise they would not be "New Rich".
To avoid misunderstandings: I don't like this obedience, and I consider it a major problem for the development of the Thai society for the future. But it is just the way it is right now.
Giotto
PS: If it were really about 40 Million THB - don't you think that Thaksin would immediately offer a bit more?
Lots of horse shit around I see.
Team Yellow consists of the PAD / Those who cannot be mentioned / The Democrats / Old Money.
Yes, the Democrats have been on Team Yellow's side. So if the Democrats get into power then the PAD have their coup, via the back door. This is terrible news if it happens.
Back to the PPP, a lot of their troubles have come from Newin, their weakness is due to a division within the PPP, those wanting to cause trouble (the ones now trying to defect to the Democrats money) have been causing internal trouble within the party and using their influence from within to make problems for the PPP.
The best thing for the true PPP now would be to return the vote to the people and dissolve the House, if its true the PAD/Democrats will now sneak into power via the backdoor after losing the last election.
The PAD cannot win, and the only way they really lose is at democratic elections, as the people despise them, so now might actually be a good time to dissolve the House and have an election. This will also clear out the crud that is withing the PPP, and let them get back to being real "TRT like" again.
Terry Terrier
12-07-08, 09:01
Terry Terrier,
You really don't know much about Thailand.
The real old aristocracy, the real influential families and the real "Old Money" will keep their influence on the Thai society independently from which coalition might form a government. Those families have their representatives in all parties, in the army and in the police. And there is NOBODY here in Thailand who would risk a confrontation with this families. And if one really does he better leaves Thailand very fast.
This is not an issue of politics. Thais are extremely obedient, overly respectful, by education, socialization and supported by Buddhism - they learn to be obedient all life long. If a Thai needs to fix a major problem he will suddenly know a "high police" or a "high army". Thais believe that only this "high" people can then help. If the opponent then knows a "higher" person the Thai will not even start to fight, he will simply accept that as destiny and give up.
The B. family was mentioned here already. One of their (smaller) businesses is a lawyer firm, 85 years old. This firm NEVER lost a case up to now. Not in 85 years. And - also not in the 6 years of the Thaksin administration.
This is a general problem of the Thai society, but no new or old government will be able to change that on the short term. For that you need some generations and a completely restructured education system, better schools. I am quite sure that it will change with the modernization of the Thai society, but it will need time.
The interpretation of the actual power struggle as a fight between the "Old Money" and the "New Rich" is in my POV completely overrated. Even the "New Rich" will cover and duck today, at any time, if they have to deal with the old powerful structures. Especially the "New Rich" have learnt to use this structure and to deal with it - otherwise they would not be "New Rich".
To avoid misunderstandings: I don't like this obedience, and I consider it a major problem for the development of the Thai society for the future. But it is just the way it is right now.
Giotto
PS: If it were really about 40 Million THB - don't you think that Thaksin would immediately offer a bit more?
G,
You have a habit of being very patronising at times ('you don't know....you don't understand....trust me sunshine, I know what I'm talking about....' etc, etc). Oh, well, never mind....
The modern world, with all it's easy access to all kinds of information, is starting to catch up with the "real old aristocracy". They don't like it, and they are scared. They have tried to keep Thai society essentially feudal, they are failing (they lost control of Thaksin), and now they are resorting to desperate measures. And the 'legal firms that never lost a case' and all the influence will count for fuck-all if these "real old aristocracy" don't wake up soon and make some real concessions. Access to institutions didn't help Ceaucesceau and his cronies, did it? And they had far more control over information than Thailand will ever have in the future. In this world of easy internet access, the masses, even in Thailand, are only subservient if you keep them happy (Thaksin understood this). Thailand IMO has a very disturbed future.
Terry Terrier
12-07-08, 11:29
PS: If it were really about 40 Million THB - don't you think that Thaksin would immediately offer a bit more?
Forgot to reply to this earlier. Why do you think Pojaman is back?
NicFrenchy
12-07-08, 11:59
Thailand IMO has a very disturbed future.
Really? (I think even the dumbest Farmer in Issan could see this one coming) so what else is new?
G,
You have a habit of being very patronising at times ('you don't know....you don't understand....trust me sunshine, I know what I'm talking about....' etc, etc). Oh, well, never mind....
TT,
It's not me who again and again starts with this personal agitation in reports. ('More cloud cover, G. You are back to your old ways').
The modern world, with all it's easy access to all kinds of information, is starting to catch up with the "real old aristocracy", they don't like it, and they are scared. They have tried to keep Thai society essentially feudal, they are failing (they lost control of Thaksin), and now they are resorting to desperate measures. And the 'legal firms that never lost a case' and all the influence will count for fuck-all if these "real old aristocracy" don't wake up soon and make some real concessions. Access to institutions didn't help Ceaucesceau and his cronies, did it? And they had far more control over information than Thailand will ever have in the future. In this world of easy internet access, the masses, even in Thailand, are only subservient if you keep them happy (Thaksin understood this). Thailand IMO has a very disturbed future.In my POV you just proved that you really don't know much about Thailand :) .
Nobody from the old aristocracy is scared, they still catch up with the changes of the modern world much faster than the average Thai people.
You really should read again what I wrote below. Any comparison with a dictatorship like Ceaucesceau's does not match for Thailand. The obedience of the Thais in general supports old fashioned feudal structures and slows any necessary changes of the society down. This obedience level of the Thais needs to be changed, and that will last!
And especially the Bangkok middle class, with all the access to all kind of information (internet, higher education levels) supported the old structures during the past months and wanted the PPP government to disappear. The rural northern area without 'easy access to all kinds of information' (internet infrastructure not that good, lower education levels) stood on the other side. Quite the opposite of what you expected.
One more remark reg. your statement "while the Old Money try to quickly get all the old snouts back at the trough" from the report before. That's what Thaksin supporters want the foreign press to believe. In the real Thailand those influential families OWN the trough!
It does not really matter whether the "Old Money" aka old aristocracy or the "New Rich" aka Thaksin and friends control goverments and plunder the country. This actual "confrontation" is just a scratch on the surface, a big media spectacle, shadow boxing. What needs to be changed goes much deeper into the characters of each individual Thai person: a sense for democracy, a reasonable approach to respect, limited obedience, the ability to criticise and controversely discuss erroneous trends in politics, society, environment.
Giotto
Forgot to reply to this earlier. Why do you think Pojaman is back?LOL,
Good to see that you haven't lost your sense of humour :).
Giotto
The Departed
12-07-08, 18:08
TT, What needs to be changed goes much deeper into the characters of each individual Thai person: a sense for democracy, a reasonable approach to respect, limited obedience, the ability to criticise and controversely discuss erroneous trends in politics, society, environment. GiottoYou can't be serious. These things cannot happen by small movements but only by big ones like the French Revolution (where they topped the King). After HM The King dies, the real boxing will begin. The behavior of HM The Queen is interesting in this light. Nice of her to attend the funeral of one of the leading lights of the protesters.
Let's not forget Thailand's neighbors either. Frsh pastures like Burma-Myanmar spring to mind.
Terry Terrier
12-07-08, 23:36
TT,
It's not me who again and again starts with this personal agitation in reports. ('More cloud cover, G. You are back to your old ways').
In my POV you just proved that you really don't know much about Thailand :) .
Nobody from the old aristocracy is scared, they still catch up with the changes of the modern world much faster than the average Thai people.
You really should read again what I wrote below. Any comparison with a dictatorship like Ceaucesceau's does not match for Thailand. The obedience of the Thais in general supports old fashioned feudal structures and slows any necessary changes of the society down. This obedience level of the Thais needs to be changed, and that will last!
And especially the Bangkok middle class, with all the access to all kind of information (internet, higher education levels) supported the old structures during the past months and wanted the PPP government to disappear. The rural northern area without 'easy access to all kinds of information' (internet infrastructure not that good, lower education levels) stood on the other side. Quite the opposite of what you expected.
One more remark reg. your statement "while the Old Money try to quickly get all the old snouts back at the trough" from the report before. That's what Thaksin supporters want the foreign press to believe. In the real Thailand those influential families OWN the trough!
It does not really matter whether the "Old Money" aka old aristocracy or the "New Rich" aka Thaksin and friends control goverments and plunder the country. This actual "confrontation" is just a scratch on the surface, a big media spectacle, shadow boxing. What needs to be changed goes much deeper into the characters of each individual Thai person: a sense for democracy, a reasonable approach to respect, limited obedience, the ability to criticise and controversely discuss erroneous trends in politics, society, environment.
Giotto
Firstly, G, Let's get the amateur dramatics out of the way: You were so insulting toward Thaksin supporter Easy2007 that you became the first recipient of his ignore list, and you ended up going as far back as the forum software would allow you in order to edit out all the rash personal insults that made you look so foolish. The best you have been able to come up with wrt personal provocations/agitations is my flagging up of your attempts to set a pro-PAD agenda on this thread and your subsequent support for the back-door coup that will shortly install a puppet Democrat government of The Family and their Old Money friends.
Now onto on-topic. Maybe you think khunying Poj is funny, but the deals she will be attempting to broker while she's in Bangkok are deadly serious. But it won't be easy for her: Her grouping are cash-strapped (we all thought they had buckets of easy access lucre outside Thailand, but the Manchester City Football Club debacle indicated otherwise), and I suspect the one million Euros per-head that The Family have offered can only be bettered by guarantees on future profits.
Terry Terrier
12-07-08, 23:37
Really? (I think even the dumbest Farmer in Issan could see this one coming) so what else is new?
Nic, your mate Giotto missed it: He thinks it's all a done deal.
Terry Terrier
12-07-08, 23:39
After HM The King dies, the real boxing will begin.
I agree with this exactly.
These things cannot happen by small movements but only by big ones like the French Revolution (where they topped the King).
...The Departed,
That's what I said. It will need time.
Giotto
Firstly, G, Let's get the amateur dramatics out of the way: You were so insulting toward Thaksin supporter Easy2007 that you became the first recipient of his ignore list, and you ended up going as far back as the forum software would allow you in order to edit out all the rash personal insults that made you look so foolish. The best you have been able to come up with wrt personal provocations/agitations is my flagging up of your attempts to set a pro-PAD agenda on this thread and your subsequent support for the back-door coup that will shortly install a puppet Democrat government of The Family and their Old Money friends.
Now onto on-topic. Maybe you think khunying Poj is funny, but the deals she will be attempting to broker while she's in Bangkok are deadly serious. But it won't be easy for her: Her grouping are cash-strapped (we all thought they had buckets of easy access lucre outside Thailand, but the Manchester City Football Club debacle indicated otherwise), and I suspect the one million Euros per-head that The Family have offered can only be bettered by guarantees on future profits.Bullshit. It's not even worth to comment on it.
Giotto
Really? (I think even the dumbest Farmer in Issan could see this one coming) so what else is new?I don't think that the I-San farmers are the dumbest people that can be found in the Land of Smiles. None of them would ever do any of the stupid things that certain Farangs can do in this country... Thinking with your stomach is probably always more clever than with your dick (in my humble opinion).
Soap Opera:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/topstory/read.php?newsid=30090182
Best part (new):
"To add to the Democrats' anxiety, rumours have it that the PAD may not be totally happy with what's going on, or with being practically left out to be precise. Some pro-PAD and anti-Democrat articles have emerged. And a very weird conspiracy theory has been leaked from the PAD alleging there's a possibility of a Thaksin-Demcorat secret handshake."
Giotto
Oh dear.
As everyone knows that the Democrats are in fact in Team Yellow, the media spin artists now have to quickly devise some "anti Democrat" things for the PAD to say.
I do not seem to remember them saying anything before now, seems to be they are quickly trying to say some, so their plan can be put into place and the PAD will be so happy (sorry, sad) if their partners the Democrats come into power.
Utter rubbish. The Democrats are, have been, and always will be, with the PAD in Team Yellow.
Funny now the PAD HAVE TO FIND something to say, to try to trick the great unwashed into thinking its not all "cunning plan". LOL
Soap Opera:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/topstory/read.php?newsid=30090182
Best part (new):
"To add to the Democrats' anxiety, rumours have it that the PAD may not be totally happy with what's going on, or with being practically left out to be precise. Some pro-PAD and anti-Democrat articles have emerged. And a very weird conspiracy theory has been leaked from the PAD alleging there's a possibility of a Thaksin-Demcorat secret handshake."
Giotto
Terry Terrier
12-09-08, 08:52
Firstly, G, Let's get the amateur dramatics out of the way: You were so insulting toward Thaksin supporter Easy2007 that you became the first recipient of his ignore list, and you ended up going as far back as the forum software would allow you in order to edit out all the rash personal insults that made you look so foolish. The best you have been able to come up with wrt personal provocations/agitations is my flagging up of your attempts to set a pro-PAD agenda on this thread and your subsequent support for the back-door coup that will shortly install a puppet Democrat government of The Family and their Old Money friends.
Now onto on-topic. Maybe you think khunying Poj is funny, but the deals she will be attempting to broker while she's in Bangkok are deadly serious. But it won't be easy for her: Her grouping are cash-strapped (we all thought they had buckets of easy access lucre outside Thailand, but the Manchester City Football Club debacle indicated otherwise), and I suspect the one million Euros per-head that The Family have offered can only be bettered by guarantees on future profits.
Bullshit. It's not even worth to comment on it.
Giotto
If you're referring to the description in my first paragraph of your behaviour on this thread, I gave a simple description of facts. If you're referring to my second paragraph, the official reason for Pojaman's return (to visit her mother) is the one that's being 'lol'ed at by many political pundits, who are talking about a bidding war for MPs affections (it's even alluded to in the last The Nation article you linked). And Thaksin's financial woes at Manchester City football club are well documented in the British press. Maybe your "bullshit" (non-)comment refers to a spelling mistake somewhere in my report? :)
If you're referring to the description in my first paragraph of your behaviour on this thread, I gave a simple description of facts. If you're referring to my second paragraph, the official reason for Pojaman's return (to visit her mother) is the one that's being 'lol'ed at by many political pundits, who are talking about a bidding war for MPs affections (it's even alluded to in the last The Nation article you linked). And Thaksin's financial woes at Manchester City football club are well documented in the British press. Maybe your "bullshit" (non-)comment refers to a spelling mistake somewhere in my report? :)TT,
Though all this has nothing to do with Thai Politics here a short overview about what I would call "bullshit":
1) Besides some normal modifications in the hours of writing the reports I changed NOTHING in my older reports of this thread. I also don't have any moderation rights for this thread.
2) If you found my reports "foolish" and now may be not any more, and you thought I have modified them - then you are simply wrong. I did not.
3) If Easy2007 has put me on his ignore list he has the right to do so, and it is not your business. Easy2007 seams to be an adult to me (where did I hear this before :)) ?
4) But - Easy2007 obviously does not have me on his ignore list, as the report below shows. Btw.: Do I remember somebody writing about putting somebody on the ignore list is something for pussies :) (not sure about the detailed wording)?
5) I don't have any pro-PAD agenda, as I stated already. By far not. I just try to understand the developments of the past, all sides of it, and I am not blind on one eye. And I try to give some background information.
6) I also don't support any "back-door coup", whatever that might be.
7) I also heard nothing about a "one million Euros per-head that The Family have offered", not from PAD friends, not from PPP friends, not from Democrat friends, not from Police friends, not from Army friends.
So - a lot of bullshit in that report - back to your personal agenda against me? If yes - it's getting boring somehow.
And I did not check on spelling errors :) ... it's your native langugage, not mine.
I hope that clarifies the issue. Let's get back to the topic.
Giotto
Isn't that cute:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/read.php?newsid=30090585
There was even this picture with the "old friends" Abhisit and Newin ... LOL.
What happens next if the Democrats really implement "policies to help the grassroots" ?
Giotto
The targeted article was mentioned in this thread:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/breakingnews.php?id=135271
Giotto
ManonsanBoy
12-09-08, 13:13
The red shirts should now go and occupy the airport.
NicFrenchy
12-09-08, 18:05
The red shirts should now go and occupy the airport.
no way, they would not last a day = no financial backup
I think it's best for foreigners to stay neutral in this political dispute.
Foreigners don't have an automatic right to be in Thailand. They are guests. And guests can easily loose their welcome by offending the locals.
Thailand has a domestic quarrel. And it's not a good idea for outsiders to take sides in a domestic quarrel.
Perhaps if Thailand goes on to become like Burma or Cambodia during the Pol Pot regime. Then being welcome or unwelcome there won't matter much. And then it would be right for outsiders to take sides and speak out.
I think it's best for foreigners to stay neutral in this political dispute.
...
Dan7373,
Absolutely correct!
Giotto
Terry Terrier
12-09-08, 23:55
1) Besides some normal modifications in the hours of writing the reports I changed NOTHING in my older reports of this thread. I also don't have any moderation rights for this thread.
2) If you found my reports "foolish" and now may be not any more, and you thought I have modified them - then you are simply wrong. I did not.
Giotto, you must be getting confused. You repeatedly called Easy2007 "stupid", including one post addressed to me in which you referred to him as "your stupid friend Easy2007". Your editing out of these disgusting personal attacks constitutes rather more than "normal modifications", though is to be commended.
3) If Easy2007 has put me on his ignore list he has the right to do so, and it is not your business. Easy2007 seams to be an adult to me (where did I hear this before :)) ?
4) But - Easy2007 obviously does not have me on his ignore list, as the report below shows. Btw.: Do I remember somebody writing about putting somebody on the ignore list is something for pussies :) (not sure about the detailed wording)?
You're definitely getting a mite confused. Here is what Easy2007 said:
http://www.internationalsexguide.info/forum/showpost.php?p=802205&postcount=713
5) I don't have any pro-PAD agenda, as I stated already.
Your pro-PAD agenda is available to read in this thread (too late for you to edit it now). Don't you remember? Still a mite confused? It culminated in your breathtaking attack on the merits of democracy, in support of the PAD's 30% elected/70% appointed parliament proposal.
7) I also heard nothing about a "one million Euros per-head that The Family have offered", not from PAD friends, not from PPP friends, not from Democrat friends, not from Police friends, not from Army friends.
You will, eventually :).
....
Your pro-PAD agenda is available to read in this thread (too late for you to edit it now). Don't you remember? Still a mite confused? It culminated in your breathtaking attack on the merits of democracy, in support of the PAD's 30% elected/70% appointed parliament proposal.
You will, eventually :).
I'm no supporter of PAD. But if you like the sexual freedom of Thailand. Then you need to consider the possibility that PAD is more likely to be on the side of the sexual freedom than Mr. Thaksin and his supporters.
Mr. Thaksin did try to restrict some of the nightlife in Bangkok. And this is probably one of the reasons why there is so much anti-Thaksin feeling in Bangkok.
True democracy is when the majority rules with a lot of respect for minorities. And Mr. Thaksin sometimes didn't show a lot of respect like that. It was more like a dictatorship of the majority rather than a true democracy.
Perhaps all democracies have a tendency to create a dictatorship of the majority without much respect for some minorities. It's just that they vary in which minority they choose to disrespect.
You can get arrested for soliciting a sex-worker in USA. Even though it's between consenting adults. And neither the government nor other people have any business telling the two of you what to do. In fact, the police sometimes pose as sex-workers on the streets there and arrest men who approach them.
As a foreigner, I'd rather stay neutral in this dispute in Thailand. But there is a case to be made that democracy quite often is not as good as it is made out to be. Perhaps democracy is good for political freedom. But for personal freedom I'm not so sure it is best.
...
Your pro-PAD agenda is available to read in this thread (too late for you to edit it now). Don't you remember? Still a mite confused? It culminated in your breathtaking attack on the merits of democracy, in support of the PAD's 30% elected/70% appointed parliament proposal.
...
TT,
It's somehow sad to read something like that. I thought we had a much further developed ability of leading political discussions in the western democracies than this "put-him-in-a-box" thinking.
I am willing to discuss and think through even strange political ideas, looking for the roots of it, for pros and cons. That does not necessarily mean that I would support those ideas.
Giotto
That's how it goes:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/10/politics/politics_30090622.php
Giotto
Yes I did have to put Giotto on the ignore list for a time, as he was so pro PAD and so abusive and arrogant, I just had enough.
Giotto, you must be getting confused. You repeatedly called Easy2007 "stupid", including one post addressed to me in which you referred to him as "your stupid friend Easy2007". Your editing out of these disgusting personal attacks constitutes rather more than "normal modifications", though is to be commended.
You're definitely getting a mite confused. Here is what Easy2007 said:
http://www.internationalsexguide.info/forum/showpost.php?p=802205&postcount=713
Your pro-PAD agenda is available to read in this thread (too late for you to edit it now). Don't you remember? Still a mite confused? It culminated in your breathtaking attack on the merits of democracy, in support of the PAD's 30% elected/70% appointed parliament proposal.
You will, eventually :).
As expected, the discussion about dissolving the House starts:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/11/politics/politics_30090681.php
Giotto
Money, money, money:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/11/politics/politics_30090702.php
Giotto
Money, money, money:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/11/politics/politics_30090702.php
Giotto
To be fair, money is being used to influence people on both sides:
"The going "wage" for the "Rent-A-Crowds" during the crisis was 300 baht a day per person, plus food, transportation and a clean yellow T-shirt — yellow being the royal color. These protests ran, off and on, for nearly 200 days, with crowd sizes ranging from a few hundred to tens of thousands. It is widely known that anti-Thaksin business elites provided the money to keep people in the streets."
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20081209a2.html
300B?
The PAD were paying quite a number 900B per day, with free food, free entertainment, free cothing etc.
900B per day. And they accuse Thaksin of being corrupt.
To show just how corrupt the system is, notice that not one PAD member has been arrested for:
Tresspassing on government land.
Illegal Blocking public access to roads.
Illegal blocking of an international airport.
Using Firearms in public.
And many many more offences.
Now, if the juducial system of Thailand is not corrupt and under the influence and control of the PAD. How can the PAD leaders and members not be prosecuted.
All of their actions in this respect merely strengthen Thaksin's case that he was the victim of a set up. A colloboation of judiciary and Team Yellow, to convict him of "made up charges" that were the excuse for the "coup".
Anyone who was slightly unclear on the situaiton, only has to look at how the PAD has been allowed to openly break the law, and openly lose Thai people BILLIONS of baht. And are free to carry on.
To be fair, money is being used to influence people on both sides:
"The going "wage" for the "Rent-A-Crowds" during the crisis was 300 baht a day per person, plus food, transportation and a clean yellow T-shirt — yellow being the royal color. These protests ran, off and on, for nearly 200 days, with crowd sizes ranging from a few hundred to tens of thousands. It is widely known that anti-Thaksin business elites provided the money to keep people in the streets. " http://search. Japantimes. Co. Jp/cgi-bin/eo20081209a2.html
Those who are not qualified to fuck a farang for 2000 baht fuck their own country for 900 Baht
....
Now, if the juducial system of Thailand is not corrupt and under the influence and control of the PAD. How can the PAD leaders and members not be prosecuted.
All of their actions in this respect merely strengthen Thaksin's case that he was the victim of a set up. A colloboation of judiciary and Team Yellow, to convict him of "made up charges" that were the excuse for the "coup".
Anyone who was slightly unclear on the situaiton, only has to look at how the PAD has been allowed to openly break the law, and openly lose Thai people BILLIONS of baht. And are free to carry on.
You have to realize that during the last military government in Thailand, the military didn't just write a new constitution for Thailand. They also appointed judges, police commanders, and various bureaucrats in positions of power and authority.
The recently elected government has tried to change the constitution written by the military. And that's when the PAD began its demonstrations. Basically, their aim was to depose the government without another military coup. Which they've succeeded in doing.
Perhaps the problem in Thailand is that it doesn't have good checks and balances for their elected government. They don't have adequate regional autonomy and regional veto power in their government. And this leads to a power struggle between various regions of the country.
If for example, the residents and businesses of Bangkok don't want some elected politicians from Isaan come to their city and trash their nightlife for them. Then they should have the power to veto such government interference in their local affairs.
And the fact that the people of Bangkok don't have such control over their own lives leads to a constant power struggle with politicians who come from other parts of the country and don't represent them.
I think the most reasonable and workable way for Thailand to solve its constant power struggle problem is to give more autonomy to its various regions. So that people have control over their local affairs. And so that politicians from some distant region can't come and tell them what to do against their wishes.
If for example, the residents and businesses of Bangkok don't want some elected politicians from Isaan come to their city and trash their nightlife for them. Then they should have the power to veto such government interference in their local affairs.
Well, you make an excellent general point that the Thai system of government is far too centralized (though the US is theoretically de-centralized and isn't free anywhere), but I would point out that the nightlife issue only matters to farangs, as after all it is the only reason we are in this sad little country puzzleing over its brutal politics. Most Thais from any region are opposed to nightlife, particularly that which provides services to the hated farang, but the fact is this is a very minor issue way down the list of priorities for them.
I think the point about people telling Bangkokians what to do misses the point, the point being that Bangkok, in the past, has got all the money and all the attention, and the rest of the country got very little. However it was very easy for politicians to throw a few hundred baht here and there and buy votes in the "poor regions".
People in the poor regions expected nothing, as they never got anything, so a few hundred baht was better than nothing.
Thaksin changed this with the TRT policies, and forget the PAD spin, the TRT made it harder for people to buy votes (the PAD wrongly accuse them of buying votes as this goes well in the media and acts as disinformation).
After experiencing investment, new infrastructure and spending like Bangkok has always had, they realised selling their votes was pointless, everyone got richer and much richer if the money of the Thai people was evenly distributed, and not just 99% spent on Bangkok.
You are correct though, a decentralised system would be better, and with the budget allocated depending on population, so in effect Isaan gets most of the money due to the high population. This can be spent on infrastructure, irrigation and many other needed projects. However, would the Bangkokians be happy with Thai money being spent on Thai people, and not just Bangkok people?
You have to realize that during the last military government in Thailand, the military didn't just write a new constitution for Thailand. They also appointed judges, police commanders, and various bureaucrats in positions of power and authority.
The recently elected government has tried to change the constitution written by the military. And that's when the PAD began its demonstrations. Basically, their aim was to depose the government without another military coup. Which they've succeeded in doing.
Perhaps the problem in Thailand is that it doesn't have good checks and balances for their elected government. They don't have adequate regional autonomy and regional veto power in their government. And this leads to a power struggle between various regions of the country.
If for example, the residents and businesses of Bangkok don't want some elected politicians from Isaan come to their city and trash their nightlife for them. Then they should have the power to veto such government interference in their local affairs.
And the fact that the people of Bangkok don't have such control over their own lives leads to a constant power struggle with politicians who come from other parts of the country and don't represent them.
I think the most reasonable and workable way for Thailand to solve its constant power struggle problem is to give more autonomy to its various regions. So that people have control over their local affairs. And so that politicians from some distant region can't come and tell them what to do against their wishes.
Imlonely67
12-13-08, 08:40
Now, if the juducial system of Thailand is not corrupt and under the influence and control of the PAD. How can the PAD leaders and members not be prosecuted.
All of their actions in this respect merely strengthen Thaksin's case that he was the victim of a set up. A colloboation of judiciary and Team Yellow, to convict him of "made up charges" that were the excuse for the "coup".
Anyone who was slightly unclear on the situaiton, only has to look at how the PAD has been allowed to openly break the law, and openly lose Thai people BILLIONS of baht. And are free to carry on.BREAKING NEWS from BANGKOKPOST>> Friday December 12, 2008 14:01
"If our demands are rejected or ignored, we are ready to stage a movement suitable with teh situation," PAD coordinator Suriyasai Katasila said.
GENERAL NEWS from BANGKOKPOST>> Saturday December 13, 2008
PAD warns of more protests
SURASAK GLAHAN
The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) announced yesterday it will renew its protests if Puea Thai, formed to accommodate MPs of the disbanded People Power party (PPP), returns to lead the next coalition.
*******
PAD is planning to stage another siege if their demand is not accepted by the coming government or win by PUEA THAI party (ex-Thaksin party) to form the new government. PAD is too much, and I hope that all Thai people understand what is PAD objective. I hope Thailand LOS will have peace, if not I am very sure Thailand will be in very deep trouble with the current world market slow down. No foreign visitor to spend money in Thailand.
.... Most Thais from any region are opposed to nightlife, particularly that which provides services to the hated farang, but the fact is this is a very minor issue way down the list of priorities for them.
One of the reasons why Thailand used to be such a popular tourist destination was its nightlife for farangs. A lot of businesses made a lot of money out of it. And a lot of people got various employment income out of it too. Perhaps most Thai people didn't benefit from the tourist industry directly. But many businesses certainly did benefit.
Mr. Thaksin made enemies among those who didn't have enough votes. But they certainly had enough money to pay for the PAD. And some of that money is probably tourist money from guys like you and me.
Thaksin changed this with the TRT policies, and forget the PAD spin, the TRT made it harder for people to buy votes (the PAD wrongly accuse them of buying votes as this goes well in the media and acts as disinformation).No. Vote-buying (by all parties) is still a reality in rural I-San. Read my messages (and attached links) posted earlier in this thread.
Terry Terrier
12-14-08, 09:42
However, would the Bangkokians be happy with Thai money being spent on Thai people, and not just Bangkok people?
One-word-answer: "NO"
Terry Terrier
12-14-08, 10:24
BREAKING NEWS from BANGKOKPOST>> Friday December 12, 2008 14:01
"If our demands are rejected or ignored, we are ready to stage a movement suitable with teh situation," PAD coordinator Suriyasai Katasila said.
GENERAL NEWS from BANGKOKPOST>> Saturday December 13, 2008
PAD warns of more protests
SURASAK GLAHAN
The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) announced yesterday it will renew its protests if Puea Thai, formed to accommodate MPs of the disbanded People Power party (PPP), returns to lead the next coalition.
And the saddest aspect of this is that the vested interests, from the very top (The Family and their Friends) right down to all the vested interests such as the farang businessmen (short-term losses are unimportant compared to the potential long-term losses of not having cheap mass-labour), will back them to carry out their threats.
And the saddest aspect of this is that the vested interests, from the very top (The Family and their Friends) right down to all the vested interests such as the farang businessmen (short-term losses are unimportant compared to the potential long-term losses of not having cheap mass-labour), will back them to carry out their threats.
Perhaps some farangs have vested interests on the side of the red shirts too. Or at least that's what the bureaucrats appointed by the last military government seem to think.
They've recently restricted visa rules for foreigners who do visa runs to land borders for extending their stay in Thailand. From now on, such farangs will get only a 15-day extension at the land borders, instead of the previous 30 days extension.
http://www.csmngt.com/thai_visa.htm
Most farangs who are getting visa extensions at Thailand's land borders are involved in relationships with Isaan ladies. Perhaps their sympathies and some of their money end up on the 'wrong' side of this political dispute.
That's what happens when foreigners get involved in internal political disputes of another country. Or when there is some suspicion that foreigners are not entirely neutral.
Foreigners are an easy target for government bureaucrats. And that's why it's not a good idea for foreigners like you and me to show our sympathies in this political dispute.
Oh MY GOD.
What nonsense.
The 15 day ruling has come into place as a few years ago, as you know, they introduced the 90 days in 180 ruling.
This is still being abused by people working in Thailand, mostly in Bangkok, and its nothing to do with Isaan or Team Yellow.
Jesus.
As its still blatently possible to get on a bus down to Cambodia, they have again changed the ruling, now its 15 days over land border.
Most of your "white farang involved with Isaan girl" do not do the land trip, this is the domain of the budget traveller, the teacher, the Asian etc.
All of this is designed to stop the "unwanted" from being able to easily to renew their visa and continue working in Thailand.
I think a better solution is to grant only 7 days from land border and 14 days from airport/seaport.
This keeps the tourists in and happy, but makes those abusing the system have to get visa's, proper visa's.
It will come, its just a case of down from 30 to 15, and maybe soon 15 to 7.
These are not brought in by Thaksin, or the PAD, or Team Yellow, its just basic protectionism of the jobs in the country, and ensuring foreigners get proper work permits/visa's.
Where the fuck did you get this "land borders/Isaan lady" thing from?
Perhaps some farangs have vested interests on the side of the red shirts too. Or at least that's what the bureaucrats appointed by the last military government seem to think.
They've recently restricted visa rules for foreigners who do visa runs to land borders for extending their stay in Thailand. From now on, such farangs will get only a 15-day extension at the land borders, instead of the previous 30 days extension. http://www.csmngt.com/thai_visa. Htm
Most farangs who are getting visa extensions at Thailand's land borders are involved in relationships with Isaan ladies. Perhaps their sympathies and some of their money end up on the 'wrong' side of this political dispute.
That's what happens when foreigners get involved in internal political disputes of another country. Or when there is some suspicion that foreigners are not entirely neutral.
Foreigners are an easy target for government bureaucrats. And that's why it's not a good idea for foreigners like you and me to show our sympathies in this political dispute. OH MY GOD.
What nonsense.
The 15 day ruling has come into place as a few years ago, as you know, they introduced the 90 days in 180 ruling.
This is still being abused by people working in Thailand, mostly in Bangkok, and its nothing to do with Isaan or Team Yellow.
Jesus.
As its still blatently possible to get on a bus down to Cambodia, they have again changed the ruling, now its 15 days over land border.
Most of your "white farang involved with Isaan girl" do not do the land trip, this is the domain of the budget traveller, the teacher, the Asian etc.
All of this is designed to stop the "unwanted" from being able to easily to renew their visa and continue working in Thailand.
I think a better solution is to grant only 7 days from land border and 14 days from airport/seaport.
This keeps the tourists in and happy, but makes those abusing the system have to get visa's, proper visa's.
It will come, its just a case of down from 30 to 15, and maybe soon 15 to 7.
These are not brought in by Thaksin, or the PAD, or Team Yellow, its just basic protectionism of the jobs in the country, and ensuring foreigners get proper work permits/visa's.
Where the fuck did you get this "land borders/Isaan lady" thing from?
Perhaps some farangs have vested interests on the side of the red shirts too. Or at least that's what the bureaucrats appointed by the last military government seem to think.
They've recently restricted visa rules for foreigners who do visa runs to land borders for extending their stay in Thailand. From now on, such farangs will get only a 15-day extension at the land borders, instead of the previous 30 days extension. http://www.csmngt.com/thai_visa. Htm
Most farangs who are getting visa extensions at Thailand's land borders are involved in relationships with Isaan ladies. Perhaps their sympathies and some of their money end up on the 'wrong' side of this political dispute.
That's what happens when foreigners get involved in internal political disputes of another country. Or when there is some suspicion that foreigners are not entirely neutral.
Foreigners are an easy target for government bureaucrats. And that's why it's not a good idea for foreigners like you and me to show our sympathies in this political dispute.
Most of your "white farang involved with Isaan girl" do not do the land trip, this is the domain of the budget traveller, the teacher, the Asian etc.
All of this is designed to stop the "unwanted" from being able to easily to renew their visa and continue working in Thailand.
I think a better solution is to grant only 7 days from land border and 14 days from airport/seaport.
This keeps the tourists in and happy, but makes those abusing the system have to get visa's, proper visa's.
No, the vast majority who do 'visa runs' are sex tourists, Easy. As for employment in Thailand, it can only be one sort - teaching - and it is both absurdly underpaid and by definition cannot be done by Thais. I certainly agree that most Thais cannot bear to have farangs living and teaching in their country, but it is also true that foreigners are not 'taking jobs' that Thais would otherwise have.
Lastly, even non-sex tourists do need considerably more than 7 days - otherwise this will heavily interfere with Thailand's usefullness as a 'travel hub'. If a typical farang tourist wants to come for a winter's holiday of two or three months or so, and go to Lao, Cambodia, and perhaps Vietnam, but can only get seven days when re-entering Thailand, this will severely screw up said farang's ability to plan a trip and spend money. Of course it is possible for such farangs to arrange some sort of complicated 'tourist visas' from 'consulates' in their home countries beforehand, but if Thailand becomes that difficult I honestly doubt people will bother. (Only sex tourists are really motivated travellers).
No, it is quite clear that the rules changes we are discussing here are motivated entirely by xenophobia and racism, like most Thai government policy regarding farangs, rather than by any practical consideration.
Terry Terrier
12-16-08, 00:14
Talk about those brutally honest Aussies calling a spade a spade, you won't be reading any summaries of the current situation in the Bangkok Post or The Nation or by any of our ISG expat businessmen anytime soon as honest as this:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/monarchy-damaged-by-elites/2008/12/15/1229189534242.html
Visa's are not difficult, they are extremely easy to get, and most Thai consulates willl even do it by post.
You will see more and more countries clamp down on "visa free stay" as time goes by.
No, the vast majority who do 'visa runs' are sex tourists, Easy. As for employment in Thailand, it can only be one sort. Teaching. And it is both absurdly underpaid and by definition cannot be done by Thais. I certainly agree that most Thais cannot bear to have farangs living and teaching in their country, but it is also true that foreigners are not 'taking jobs' that Thais would otherwise have.
Lastly, even non-sex tourists do need considerably more than 7 days. Otherwise this will heavily interfere with Thailand's usefullness as a 'travel hub'. If a typical farang tourist wants to come for a winter's holiday of two or three months or so, and go to Lao, Cambodia, and perhaps Vietnam, but can only get seven days when re-entering Thailand, this will severely screw up said farang's ability to plan a trip and spend money. Of course it is possible for such farangs to arrange some sort of complicated 'tourist visas' from 'consulates' in their home countries beforehand, but if Thailand becomes that difficult I honestly doubt people will bother. (Only sex tourists are really motivated travellers).
No, it is quite clear that the rules changes we are discussing here are motivated entirely by xenophobia and racism, like most Thai government policy regarding farangs, rather than by any practical consideration.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/breakingnews.php?id=135426
Tuesday December 16, 2008 10:33
Democrats could face dissolution: EC
The Puea Thai party filed a complaint with the Election Commission (EC) against the Democrat party after its leader and newly elected prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva appeared to team up with banned politician Newin Chidchob.
EC member Prapun Naigowit, referring to the Puea Thai's petition, said the photograph of Mr Abhisit hugging with Mr Newin in an attempt to get more MPs to help the Democrat party set up the new administration could violate articles 96 and 98 of the constitution.
Thai Premier Short on Common Touch
New York Times December 16, 2008 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/16/world/asia/16bangkok.html?ref=world
BANGKOK — Abhisit Vejjajiva, who was elected prime minister of Thailand on Monday in a parliamentary vote, is taking on the twin challenges of political turmoil and economic crisis that have wounded two previous Thai governments this year.
Mr. Abhisit has the polished résumé of a member of his country’s elite, but he has not cultivated ties with its decisive electoral bloc: the rural and urban poor.
Born in Newcastle, England, to parents who were both professors of medicine, he was educated at Eton and at Oxford, where he graduated with honors in economics, politics and philosophy.
After teaching economics at Thammasat University, Mr. Abhisit joined the Democrat Party in 1992 and at the age of 27 became one of the youngest representatives to serve in Parliament. On Monday, at the age of 44, he became one of the youngest prime ministers in Thai history.
His election ends seven years of dominance by parties loyal to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. But Mr. Thaksin, who was ousted in a coup in 2006, continues to exert political influence from self-exile abroad.
Critics say Mr. Abhisit is handsome, articulate and well mannered but lacks the hearty touch of successful Thai politicians. They joke that he would need a visa to travel to the rural heartland of the north and the northeast.
These are the areas that Mr. Thaksin made his base and that still hold the decisive votes in elections. The Democrat Party, by contrast, enjoys support from the middle class, the urban elite and the business sector.
“I don’t even want to talk about their ability to heal that division — rich-poor, rural-urban and old establishment and Thaksin,” said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a visiting research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.
Mr. Abhisit tried on Monday to address those concerns. “I can only give assurances that if I receive the majority vote, I will work for people across the country,” he said.
His election followed six months of protests against pro-Thaksin parties that culminated in a weeklong blockade of Bangkok’s two airports that ended Dec. 3. A day earlier, a court disbanded the governing People Power Party for fraud in the election a year ago, opening the way for Monday’s vote. Mr. Abhisit received 235 votes, compared with 198 for the former national police chief, Pracha Promnok.
Outside Parliament on Monday, about 200 Thaksin loyalists shouted and threw bricks, raising the possibility that demonstrations might now begin from the other side of the political divide.
No elected Thai government, apart from Mr. Thaksin’s first administration, has served out its full term, and some political analysts said Mr. Abhisit’s was too precarious to last long.
“If they stay more than three months, I salute them,” Mr. Pavin said. “Sorry to be so pessimistic.”
Though Mr. Abhisit has presented himself as a reformer who rejects the corruption that characterizes Thai politics, he came to power through the kind of hard bargaining typical of old-style Thai politics.
As leader of the opposition party, he offered only mild criticism of the coup that ousted Mr. Thaksin. He also benefited from the long-running demonstrations by opponents of the government, refraining from condemning them even when they occupied Bangkok’s two airports, at a serious cost to the economy.
His rise to power is also tainted by a perception that it was engineered by the politically powerful military, which critics say pressed small parties to join the Democrat-led coalition.
Mr. Abhisit has yet to be tested as a leader or as a political infighter, and he will face some of Thailand’s toughest and most experienced politicians both within and outside the slim coalition government he has put together.
One of these hard-nosed allies, a newly emerged defector from the Thaksin camp named Newin Chidchob, urged Mr. Abhisit to continue the populist policies with which Mr. Thaksin wooed the rural poor.
But his cultural divide from the heartland may be difficult to breach. Asked last year about his likes and dislikes, he said that his favorite book was “The Myth of Sisyphus” by Camus and that he was a devotee of the singer Barry Manilow, whose voice is rarely heard in rural Thailand.
an excellent summary :
http://www.prachatai.com/english/news.php?id=900
thailand's second coup completed: the cockroaches take over
giles ji ungpakorn, turn left thailand
16 december 2008
article
the appointment of "democrat" party leader abhisit vejjajiva as the new thai prime minister is the final stage of the second coup against an elected government. after the deliberate chaos created by the pad's seizure of the airports, the courts stepped in to dissolve the hugely popular governing party for the second time. the army chief then called a meeting of democrat party parliamentarians along with some of the most corrupt elements of the governing coalition parties. it is widely believed that the army chief and others, threatened and bribed mps to change sides. chief among them is "newin chitchorp", who was named by his father after the infamous burmese dictator.
the democrat party is known among the cyber community as the "cockroach party". this is because cockroaches live in filthy places and can survive even nuclear holocausts. the party has survived for many years, forming governments after various crises. these so-called democrats have systematically backed anti-democratic measures. they supported the 2006 coup, the military constitution and the pad. one democrat party mp was the leader of the mob that took over the international airport. over the last 30 years, the democrat party has never won an overall majority in parliament. it does not represent the people. during the thaksin years it spent the whole time criticising the universal health care scheme and other pro-poor policies. after the 1997 economic crisis it used state money to prop up the banks and guarantee the savings of the rich, while telling the poor to fend for themselves and depend on their families. even abhisit's name in thai means "privilege". he is an oxford graduate from a wealthy family.
the first coup, on 19th september 2006, was a straight forward military coup, using tanks and soldiers wearing royal yellow ribbons. the military junta tore-up the democratic constitution and replaced it with an authoritarian one. half the senate was appointed by the military and many so-called independent bodies were staffed by junta supporters. the military appointed themselves to lucrative state enterprise positions. then they got the courts to dissolve the thai rak thai party despite the fact that it had won repeated elections.
thaksin's thai rak thai party was and remains hugely popular among the majority of thais. this party introduced the first universal healthcare scheme and projects to stimulate village economies. the aim was to develop thailand as a whole, increasing the education and health status of the general population, thus turning them into "stake-holders". this was a winning formula, an alliance between a pro-poor capitalist party and the poor, both urban and rural.
but thaksin's modernisation plans, which also included major infrastructure development such as public transport projects for bangkok, upset the old order. this "old order" is not headed by the king, as many commentators think. the old order is made up of local political mafias, the army, conservative judges and the democrat party. they were joined by businessmen like sonti limtongkul, who initially supported thaksin, but fell out over personal interests. the pad mobilised a fascist-style middle class mob to cause chaos. they seized the government house, destroyed offices, stole weapons and then tried to close parliament. there final act was the take-over of the two international airports with the open support of the military. the pad and the old order want to reduce democracy further. they want to reduce the number of elected members of parliament, stiffen les majesty laws and destroy the alliance between the poor and thaksin. they are angry that the poor have become politicised. they hate the fact that state budgets were spent on healthcare, rural development and education. instead they want to cling to their old privileges, espouse strict "monetarism" (except for elite and military spending) and advocate that the poor should be "sufficient" in their poverty. these people use neo-liberal free-market ideas in association with the king's "sufficiency economy" ideology. their excuse for opposing democracy is their belief that the poor are too stupid to deserve the right to vote.
the thai king has always been weak[1]. his status has been systematically promoted by military juntas and the elite in general. we are all socialised to think that the king is an "ancient absolute monarchy", while at the same time being within the constitution. this picture of power creates a shell to protect the entire ruling class and the status quo under a climate of fear. the army especially needs such a legitimising shell because it is no longer ok for the military hold political power, unless it can claim to protect the monarchy.
in previous political crises, such as in 1973 and 1992, the king only intervened late in the day after it was clear who had won. in the present crisis the king has remained silent and has not made any attempts to resolve the crisis. he missed his annual birthday speech on 4th december this year, claiming a sore throat.
the royal dimension to this crisis is that it is a struggle between two elite groups. one side have been much more successful in claiming royal legitimacy. but ironically this claim by the anti-thaksin lot is causing a crisis for the monarchy because it associates pad violence and law-breaking with the monarchy and the actions by the military have created an image that the monarchy is against the majority of the population. the support shown by the queen for the pad has also angered or disappointed many thais.
the new government will be made up of a coalition of some of the most corrupt and unprincipled politicians. this shows that the elites' opposition to thaksin was never really about preventing corruption or vote buying, despite the fact that many ordinary middle-class people might have felt that it was. even the democrat party has a history of vote buying and corruption. the democrat governor of bangkok had to resign recently under a corruption cloud. yet the party was not dissolved by the courts. so far, thaksin and his fellow politicians have only been found guilty of technicalities. no serious corruption charges have been proven. no evidence of real election fraud has ever been unearthed. in fact, thaksin's party was reducing the importance of vote-buying through pro-poor policies. this is what angered the old order. it meant that they could only overthrow his government buy promising more to the poor or by using various means to organise coups.
there are a number of questions which need to be put to the new government:
1. will the government punish pad leaders for breaking the law, including the democrat mp who took over the airport? will the pad be made to answer for the damage at government house? will the democrats expel their mp who lead the airport occupation?
2. will the military chiefs be sacked for breaking the law and intervening in politics. will they be sacked for giving the green-light to the take-over of the airports and thus compromising airport security?
3. will the government defend the undemocratic constitution or will it amend the constitution to increase democracy?
4. will elections be held as soon as possible to allow the thai population to have a say?
5. what serious measures will the government take in order to protect the poor from the economic crisis. what job creating policies do they have? how can they stop workers being sacked from factories. will they increase wages and cut vat in order to stimulate the economy? will they increase taxation on the rich in order to help the poor?
6. will the government punish state officials who murdered unarmed demonstrators in the south at takbai during the thaksin government? will they withdraw troops and police so that a peaceful political solution can be achieved?
7. will the government ensure a balanced media by allowing significant space for red shirt anti-government critics? or will the government increase censorship and media bias? will they repeal the les majesty law and allow public scrutiny and criticism of the courts?many of us can guess what the answers will be.
Let's see whether it will happen:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/topstories.php?id=135496
For those who are really interested in some background infos (besides those "blind-on-one-eye" reports of this thread):
It is essential for the future of foreign owned business in Thailand (most likely for Thailand itself too) that the PAD is held legally responsible for what they have done. We discuss this a lot here in the Bangkok business community, and nearly all representatives of foreign companies, farangs living here in Thailand share the opinion, that business / investors will only return if trust into the legal system of the country can be restored. And the first important step for this must be to hold the PAD leaders accountable for their actions.
Giotto
NicFrenchy
12-19-08, 15:55
Let's see whether it will happen:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/topstories.php?id=135496
For those who are really interested in some background infos (besides those "blind-on-one-eye" reports of this thread):
It is essential for the future of foreign owned business in Thailand (most likely for Thailand itself too) that the PAD is held legally responsible for what they have done. We discuss this a lot here in the Bangkok business community, and nearly all representatives of foreign companies, farangs living here in Thailand share the opinion, that business / investors will only return if trust into the legal system of the country can be restored. And the first important step for this must be to hold the PAD leaders accountable for their actions.
Giotto
The link is broken
The link is broken
Here is another story about it:
http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest%2BNews/Asia/Story/A1Story20081219-109067.html
I think it's a little bit too late to start restoring people's confidence in the rule of law in Thailand. Most foreigners and Thais who have been following the news will know that any legal consequences for the PAD would be largely symbolic. And the PAD probably would be free to occupy the airports and the government buildings again, if any party supporting Mr. Thaksin ever manages to form the government again.
I think it will take many years for foreign tourists to forget about the airport occupations and feel completely secure about flying there. The fact is that Thailand's police and the army did nothing to prevent or stop these occupations. And restoring confidence in the law and the courts is meaningless, when people have no confidence that the police and the army will enforce the laws.
It's not just the courts who need to restore their credibility. It's also the police and the army. And there is no easy way for them to persuade the people now that they can be trusted.
NicFrenchy
12-20-08, 01:52
i think it will take many years for foreign tourists to forget about the airport occupations and feel completely secure about flying there.
i am not so pessimistic. i believe that as there was no threat/violence or harm, people will just forget about it very easily. business should be back up full speed in a couple months.
the main issue thailand faces is that as there is a worldwide economy crisis, business, even full speed, will be greatly reduced.
the strong thb will be a very negative thing in 2009.
this government will not last very long, so there is no chance business confidence will be back to normal in months. its all going to be changed again before too long.
already business leaders and senior demcrats are upset about some of the "cockroach" appointments.
the democrats are known in the past for their corruption eg the last 2 democrat governments were kicked out for corruption.
did you forget that?
a pad key leader is a democrat mp?
abhisit visited pad people in hospital?
abhisit and a freshly banned newin were photographed in the media. lesser offences have seen ppp mp's banned. will abhisit be banned and the democrats dissolved? it is against the consitition to be seen campaigning with "banned mp's". newin is banned and was when the "photo session" was done.
many many many eyes are watching all banks and routes of payments, they are waiting to gather evidence of "payback" to the mp's who defected. if they pay, they will be caught. if they do not pay, there is a risk the mp will defect back and the government will lose their majority and then a no confidence motion will be passed.
this government now, the second but silent coup, should not last more than 6 months, maybe less than 3 months is most peoples opinions.
history tells us the last 2 democrat led governments were kicked out for corruption offences. say no more for most people.
i am not so pessimistic. i believe that as there was no threat/violence or harm, people will just forget about it very easily. business should be back up full speed in a couple months.
the main issue thailand faces is that as there is a worldwide economy crisis, business, even full speed, will be greatly reduced. the strong thb will be a very negative thing in 2009.
Terry Terrier
12-20-08, 03:47
A PAD key leader is a Democrat MP?
The new Foreign Minister, no less.
Great interview with Abhisit here. Watch as he goes from smug liar to squirming backtracker as he's put under pressure by the BBC interviewer. Hilarious :D:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7790559.stm
I see that Anupong (the army leader who doesn't get involved in politics), fresh from his coffee mornings with new coalition partners, is offering help to the Democrats to get the support of the Thaksin heartlands. Wonder if the help will be of the same type that saw the army leadership ordering it's rank and file to vote Democrat in 2007? Hounding of pro-Thaksin activists, maybe? Re-education camps, anyone?
The link is brokenHmmm...
It works here on my computer. But again the links, Nation and Bangkok Post:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/20/politics/politics_30091496.php
http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/topstories.php?id=135506
Giotto
NicFrenchy
12-20-08, 06:28
Thanks Giotto, it works now
Terry Terrier
12-20-08, 22:40
Hmmm...
It works here on my computer. But again the links, Nation and Bangkok Post:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/20/politics/politics_30091496.php
http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/topstories.php?id=135506
Giotto
Prime Minister (on finding that one of his senior MPs has been helping an extremist right-wing group to hijack their country's airports as a sideline): "Ok, we need to let legal process run it's due course on this one. But don't expect any special favours from me. Btw, I'm promoting you to Foreign Minister. And don't try to hide behind this promotion during the independant investigations into your behaviour."
You just couldn't make this stuff up, could you? It'd be too far-fetched.
Some of us said a long time back that the TRT actually did a lot against corruption, they spread the money to more people which is the way to build nations, as opposed to a few getting all the money.
They also stopped the drug trade to a certain degree.
Well, looks like Thailand now moves back to "old politics" with PAD people taking power, old money paying to be in government. The elite who supported the PAD now take over and do what they want.
So sad, but some of us who have been here decades, not years, knew that Thaksin was good for Thailand, which is why they had to "dirty him". And now they can return to running Thailand their way, with all the money staying just in the elites pockets. PAD now in power and ruling the roost.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/21/politics/politics_30091531.php
Some of us said a long time back that the TRT actually did a lot against corruption, they spread the money to more people which is the way to build nations, as opposed to a few getting all the money.
They also stopped the drug trade to a certain degree.
Well, looks like Thailand now moves back to "old politics" with PAD people taking power, old money paying to be in government. The elite who supported the PAD now take over and do what they want.
So sad, but some of us who have been here decades, not years, knew that Thaksin was good for Thailand, which is why they had to "dirty him". And now they can return to running Thailand their way, with all the money staying just in the elites pockets. PAD now in power and ruling the roost.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/21/politics/politics_30091531.php
If you gain money through corruption you don't have to repay it. Sure millions of Isan folk have received extra money through the village loan scheme, but one day it will have to be repaid. They have to repay it every year with interest and then can re-borrow it. thats costly, since they don't have the money to repay, and have to borrow within their villages at exorbitant interest rates. Is that your interpretation of "spreading the money to more people"?
What happened to the money they initially received? Many many bought mobile phones with AIS sim cards and boosted Thakko's wealth.
Anyone can reduce the drugs trade through extra-judicial killings! But drugs today are back where they were before the crackdown. And hundreds of people (some innocent) are dead!
Thakko was never good for the Thai people - just good for himself and his cronies.
He wanted total power, and if he had not been removed, he would likely have been looking to become Thailand's first president. Indeed if we do not take care, he will be back and do just that.
And so, you in depth experience of Isaan comes from? Reading the newspapers? Or travelling at length throughout Isaan and talking to people and seeing what has been done?
I think you simply read the PAD sponsered spin in the media.
If you look at Isaan 8 years ago, and today, you will see massive changes, many new businesses, lots more real employment, lots more wealth has been generated, and now these people no longer "sell their votes for 300Baht". They appreciate there is more from general developement than a quick 300B. Which is the problem the PAD saw coming, if you educate the "unwashed" and make thier savvy, you lose the power to corrupt them with a couple of red notes.
The drugs trade is nowhere near what is was like before Thaksin came into power. All over the country (if you bothered going outside Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket etc.) drug peddling was rife, every village in the whole country had drug peddlers, most waiting outside schools to peddle Ya Ba to kids. Lots of them got bullets as a reward, and today the country remains much cleaner than it was before Thaksin came to power.
Thaksin was very good to the Thai people, but very bad to the elite in Bangkok, those few who always took all the money.
Thaksin never wanted total power, this is bullshit. The PAD want to retain total power for the elite in Bangkok, yes, and they have again succeeded.
Thaksin will be back when the King gives him a pardon, might not be this one, but the next one very likely will is what is said.
Every political party is CORRUPT.
Obama spent 600 million US$ getting elected. And this is not going to be repaid in kind?
What planet do you live on?
Politicians have a code of conduct and certain "vested interest" deals are not reported, although downright corruption is. What happened with Thaksin is that the "normal" vested interest deals got reported and blown out of all proportion. The "code of conduct" was broken, and now they are trying to put it all back into place.
If you gain money through corruption you don't have to repay it. Sure millions of Isan folk have received extra money through the village loan scheme, but one day it will have to be repaid. They have to repay it every year with interest and then can re-borrow it. Thats costly, since they don't have the money to repay, and have to borrow within their villages at exorbitant interest rates. Is that your interpretation of "spreading the money to more people"?
What happened to the money they initially received? Many many bought mobile phones with AIS sim cards and boosted Thakko's wealth.
Anyone can reduce the drugs trade through extra-judicial killings! But drugs today are back where they were before the crackdown. And hundreds of people (some innocent) are dead!
Thakko was never good for the Thai people. Just good for himself and his cronies.
He wanted total power, and if he had not been removed, he would likely have been looking to become Thailand's first president. Indeed if we do not take care, he will be back and do just that.
If you gain money through corruption you don't have to repay it. Sure millions of Isan folk have received extra money through the village loan scheme, but one day it will have to be repaid. They have to repay it every year with interest and then can re-borrow it. thats costly, since they don't have the money to repay, and have to borrow within their villages at exorbitant interest rates. Is that your interpretation of "spreading the money to more people"?
What happened to the money they initially received? Many many bought mobile phones with AIS sim cards and boosted Thakko's wealth.
Anyone can reduce the drugs trade through extra-judicial killings! But drugs today are back where they were before the crackdown. And hundreds of people (some innocent) are dead!
Thakko was never good for the Thai people - just good for himself and his cronies.
He wanted total power, and if he had not been removed, he would likely have been looking to become Thailand's first president. Indeed if we do not take care, he will be back and do just that.Bumholes1,
Quite realistic observations. For me it is sometimes difficult to understand why this red-against-yellow conflict is “ideologised” so much by foreign spectators and journalists.
As all other countries in the world Thailand developed certain power structures over the time, and this structures are still there and of course actively protecting their influence on politics, economy etc. . Whether we like it or not, but it is like that, and it was like that in all other countries on their way developing their own democratic structures. There are basically two ways of breaking those power structures and changing things – a revolution can wipe away old powerful elites and change the political system abruptly, or a slow and sometimes painful process of opinion making in the less privileged groups of the society as well as amongst the members of the elites can alter the system.
If somebody believes that it makes a different whether TRT/PPP/PT or a government supported by the old elite robs and plunders the country – no, for the poor people it does not. This people are also mainly apolitical – they throw their votes into that scale pan which promises to return something to them, and they are used to those promises being forgotten within minutes after each general election. The expectations towards a government are low anyway.
The difference TRT/PPP/PT made compared to the parties before was to USE this existing structures (voters, expectations etc.) much more efficiently than any other party before to reach their own targets. The key strategy was populism, promise voters something, sell it with a huge propaganda machinery, deliver “a little bit” after the elections which can be sold to the voters as fulfilment of the promises, and sell those bits and pieces again with the existing propaganda machinery. And the voters will re-elect you, again and again.
Let’s go a bit into details:
The village loan scheme – LOAN SCHEME. During the first TRT election campaign in 2001 a huge promise was made: THB 1,000,000.00 for each village. That was a lot of money for the villages, and the plan found supporters. When TRT then got the power they found out, how many villages there are in Thailand, and that the money to give each village THB 1,000,000.00 was not there, no budget! There was no money for that in the countries cash box! So the interpretation of this promise was changed to a THB 1,000,000.00 LOAN for each village. Clean solution. But – if we really look at this objectively then we must consider that it was possible for villages to get LOANS already before, simply from banks. This solution did not really provide any benefit for the villages, but it was sold to them as something the government had done for them. Another outcome of this LOANS is the interest payment – which on the medium to longer term will even increase poverty in some areas.
The 30 baht healthcare scheme – I recommend to all foreigners living in Thailand to try it out. Yes, there is the 30 baht per day healthcare scheme now, which did not exist before the Thaksin administration. But the refinancing problem was never solved, not up to today. Hospitals cannot deliver reasonable treatment of most diseases for 30 baht a day. And the government cannot (and does not) provide the money for the hospitals to finance their costs. Outcome is that the treatment is on such a low level that the efficiency is close to zero – some healthcare analysts even consider this system to have a negative impact on the health care in Thailand.
An example from this week: A 19 year old girl from the north-east needs treatment for an abscess in the inner eye(!). Went to a hospital there and was send home with 10 antibiotics pills, Amoxicillin. After 5 days of treatment the eye had swollen to nearly twice the size of the other eye, and the girl went ballistic because of the pain it caused. We got her with a taxi to Bangkok, to a hospital, had her treated there, the abscess was opened, the pus (hopefully the right word) was removed, 3 days hospitalized, all kinds of medicaments given, hourly eye wash, then some days recovery here in the hotel. Costs all together nearly THB 30,000.00 – but the eye was saved, may be even her life, as the doctors told us, the infection could have spread. That’s the reality of the Thai 30 baht healthcare scheme.
The latest activities of the propaganda machinery are now targeting the political events of the past few month. We all remember the discussion of “New Politics” of the PAD, and one issue was to only elect 30 % of the MPs directly and assign 70 % technocrats from all groups of the Thai society (nobody ever gave any explanation WHO should assign those MPs). The TRT/PPP/PT now explains this in the North / North-East the way, that the “Bangkok Elites” want to take the voting rights away from the “stupid farmers” of the North/North-East! Now everybody might think how he would feel if he were one of the “stupid farmers”. Of course you can gain support with this propaganda strategy, you can create even riots if you hammer this argumentation into the heads of the villagers. This is one of the reasons that we see this massive polarization and political extremism in the Thai population, which did not exist before. Thais usually tend to live together in peace and solve problems with the help of elder more experienced people. These traditional Thai desire to be friend with everybody is now in jeopardy, a rift is going straight through the society.
The polarization is visible everywhere right now, red and yellow shirts – partially created / supported by the media. One very simply example from this thread, introduced to us as an “An excellent summary :”
http://www.prachatai.com/english/news.php?id=900
I read only the first part of it:
Thailand's second coup completed: The Cockroaches take over
Giles Ji Ungpakorn, Turn Left Thailand
16 December 2008
Article
The appointment of "Democrat" Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva as the new Thai Prime Minister is the final stage of the second coup against an elected government. After the deliberate chaos created by the PAD's seizure of the airports, the courts stepped in to dissolve the hugely popular governing party for the second time. The Army chief then called a meeting of Democrat Party parliamentarians along with some of the most corrupt elements of the governing coalition parties. It is widely believed that the Army chief and others, threatened and bribed MPs to change sides. Chief among them is "Newin Chitchorp", who was named by his father after the infamous Burmese dictator.
The Democrat Party is known among the cyber community as the "Cockroach Party". This is because cockroaches live in filthy places and can survive even nuclear holocausts. The party has survived for many years, forming governments after various crises.
...
“The Democrat Party is known among the cyber community as “Cockroach Party”...” - ok, that’s it. I don’t need to read further, I know that this is journalism of the lowest level, tendentious, I know what will be written in the following chapters. I will stop reading this nonsense, but others will read and believe it. And if somebody would write “The TRT/PPP/PT is known among the cyber community as “Worm Party” ...” I would immediately stop reading that either. All this is lousy journalism, should be too lousy for the masses either, its dumbing down of society ...
Coming back to the initial point: In my POV it does not make a difference for the vast majority of the people whether TRT/PPP/PT or a government supported by the old elite robs and plunders the country.
Let’s not forget: Thaksin and his TRT/PPP/PT had it all. After 4 years of governing he was re-elected in 2005 from the vast majority of the Thai population. He had the majority of MP seats even in Bangkok! The only part of the country where he could not really gain ground was the South. And that had a reason – he had openly declared that constituencies who had elected his party would be preferred in government support / spending. The South is traditionally a stronghold of the Democratic Party. To say this openly was may be the biggest political mistake Thaksin made in his first four years, but still he was re-elected with nearly 64 % of the parliament seats (if I remember correctly). The Thais were happy with his government – he was the first Thai PM who made a full term and was re-elected. Thailand had a stabile government, and even most of the foreigners appreciated that, too.
What happened then? Corruption cases popped up in the first year of his second term, the Myanmar credit case, the Ratchadaphisek land case, the airport related corruption cases etc. etc. . Suddenly demonstrations on the streets, the PAD picking the political trend up jumping on the train to head the movement. And then finally the sale of the Shin Corporation – with some Thai laws “adjusted” only days before the deal took place - simply to legalize it.
There are different interpretations possible. Most likely Thaksin got too powerful for the old elite, and needed to be stopped. That’s the explanation we hear from many political analysts, mostly from outside Thailand. Possible, likely, but nobody knows for sure. But coming to the point – was that really necessary?
Thaksin knows Thailand, he knows how to play the game, he knows that he has to keep his fingers out of the rice bowl of the elite. He is not stupid, the way he uses the masses from the North / North-East to ensure the re-election of his party shows that he plays the game quite well, is able to analyze structures and implement strategies based on that analysis. How could me make this huge mistakes?
For what did he need this piece of land in Ratchadaphisek – we are not even talking about 1 Bio THB here! For what does he need to get involved into loans given to Myanmar for buying satellite / telecom equipment from one of his companies? Others can arrange that. He was playing the game so clever with the poor of the North / North-East – why was he not able to arrange his power base with the old elite? They basically have the same target as he has – to make as much money with the country Thailand as possible.
One tactical move would have made him the PM for his lifetime: Sell Shin Corp and put a part of the profits (gains of the stock price) into a public foundation to fight poverty in Thailand! Use the profits of that foundation to pump money into the rural areas. And then – sell all that with his propaganda machine to the Thai people! If he had done that (as a kind of investment) he still were PM today and in the years to come, and nobody could touch him. And over the time he could easily recover is investments ... it would have paid off big time in the future.
But – he did not. He lost it somehow, after he had the power. He wanted more and more power – he wanted to be the “Mahatir of Thailand”. He forgot that he had to keep an eye on the old power structures, and had to get them involved into his transformation process of the policies of the country. He wanted it all – and it was too much too fast.
Now Thailand has to deal with the aftermaths of this development. The rift of the Thai society is still there, and the new government will struggle to deal with all the problems. The actual cabinet line-up does not show a strong start at all – it is done the same way the TRT/PPP/PT lead governments did it before. Cabinet seats for factions, coalition partners, thank-you for your support jobs – competence is not really important. The technocracy discussion could come up again – somebody remembers it?
But even worse – this government has to deal with the global recession, up to now only visible at the horizon here in Thailand. But in 2009 the country will get hurt, and many workers / employees will lose their jobs. Poverty will rise, and additional government spending will be difficult due to the limitations of the efficiency economy policies and lower tax income. This government will most likely be blamed with the coming economic downturn, and then wiped away by a non-confidence vote and new general elections.
There is still the option that we might see a PM Thaksin again. But would that really be good for Thailand? A guy as PM again, who had already proven that he is unable to deal realistically with the power structures of the country? A guy who has already shown his ability to misuse the people of the North / North-East for his power games? A guy who has demonstrated how corrupt the top politician of a government can be? And - if not Thaksin - who else is there in the TRT/PPP/PT party, for the position as a PM?
I doubt that Thaksin's return would move Thailand forward. But - it would still be better than a worst-case scenario: a civil war, yellow against red.
Giotto
Terry Terrier
12-21-08, 21:28
Bumholes1,
Quite realistic observations. For me it is sometimes difficult to understand why this red-against-yellow conflict is “ideologised” so much by foreign spectators and journalists.
It's not being "idealogised", it's being understood and explained as the straightforward battle between the Old Elite and Thaksin's New Elite that it is.
As all other countries in the world Thailand developed certain power structures over the time, and this structures are still there and of course actively protecting their influence on politics, economy etc. . Whether we like it or not, but it is like that, and it was like that in all other countries on their way developing their own democratic structures. There are basically two ways of breaking those power structures and changing things – a revolution can wipe away old powerful elites and change the political system abruptly, or a slow and sometimes painful process of opinion making in the less privileged groups of the society as well as amongst the members of the elites can alter the system.
That's actually three ways. But I agree, and hopefully the change will come from a combination of ways two and three. If not, it will, eventually and tragically, come from way one.
If somebody believes that it makes a different whether TRT/PPP/PT or a government supported by the old elite robs and plunders the country – no, for the poor people it does not. This people are also mainly apolitical – they throw their votes into that scale pan which promises to return something to them, and they are used to those promises being forgotten within minutes after each general election. The expectations towards a government are low anyway.
I agree largely.
The difference TRT/PPP/PT made compared to the parties before was to USE this existing structures (voters, expectations etc.) much more efficiently than any other party before to reach their own targets. The key strategy was populism, promise voters something, sell it with a huge propaganda machinery, deliver “a little bit” after the elections which can be sold to the voters as fulfilment of the promises, and sell those bits and pieces again with the existing propaganda machinery. And the voters will re-elect you, again and again.
Same as every political party the world over.
Let’s go a bit into details:
The village loan scheme – LOAN SCHEME. During the first TRT election campaign in 2001 a huge promise was made: THB 1,000,000.00 for each village. That was a lot of money for the villages, and the plan found supporters. When TRT then got the power they found out, how many villages there are in Thailand, and that the money to give each village THB 1,000,000.00 was not there, no budget! There was no money for that in the countries cash box! So the interpretation of this promise was changed to a THB 1,000,000.00 LOAN for each village. Clean solution. But – if we really look at this objectively then we must consider that it was possible for villages to get LOANS already before, simply from banks. This solution did not really provide any benefit for the villages, but it was sold to them as something the government had done for them. Another outcome of this LOANS is the interest payment – which on the medium to longer term will even increase poverty in some areas.
The problem with this POV is that most villagers and villages couldn't even get loans from the banks. And, in times of hardship and desperation (bad crop years, etc), they ended up borrowing from private lenders at astronomical interest rates, leaving them indebted to the lenders for life or until their offspring could raise enough money from selling their bodies. Which is why this policy has been a big vote winner among the poor.
The 30 baht healthcare scheme – I recommend to all foreigners living in Thailand to try it out. Yes, there is the 30 baht per day healthcare scheme now, which did not exist before the Thaksin administration. But the refinancing problem was never solved, not up to today. Hospitals cannot deliver reasonable treatment of most diseases for 30 baht a day. And the government cannot (and does not) provide the money for the hospitals to finance their costs. Outcome is that the treatment is on such a low level that the efficiency is close to zero – some healthcare analysts even consider this system to have a negative impact on the health care in Thailand.
The first remark is just silly: Anyone who can afford better, private healthcare in a semi-third world country such as Thailand will go for private healthcare. Nobody is under any illusions about the 30 baht healthcare scheme being Bumrungrad transported to the regions.
The financing system for the scheme is undoubtedly flawed, and the government does not provide enough money for it, but the suggestion that efficiency of treatment is close to zero is mis-informed to say the least.
An example from this week: A 19 year old girl from the north-east needs treatment for an abscess in the inner eye(!). Went to a hospital there and was send home with 10 antibiotics pills, Amoxicillin. After 5 days of treatment the eye had swollen to nearly twice the size of the other eye, and the girl went ballistic because of the pain it caused. We got her with a taxi to Bangkok, to a hospital, had her treated there, the abscess was opened, the pus (hopefully the right word) was removed, 3 days hospitalized, all kinds of medicaments given, hourly eye wash, then some days recovery here in the hotel. Costs all together nearly THB 30,000.00 – but the eye was saved, may be even her life, as the doctors told us, the infection could have spread. That’s the reality of the Thai 30 baht healthcare scheme.
No, that's the anecdotal reality of one specific failure of the scheme, and we could find more of the same. And if you ever travel in the poorer regions of Thailand, you should take the time to ask around the villages and small towns about opinions on the scheme. Most families you will talk with will have a story to warm your heart. That is why this fledgling scheme, despite all it's problems, is such a resounding success and vote winner.
The latest activities of the propaganda machinery are now targeting the political events of the past few month. We all remember the discussion of “New Politics” of the PAD, and one issue was to only elect 30 % of the MPs directly and assign 70 % technocrats from all groups of the Thai society (nobody ever gave any explanation WHO should assign those MPs). The TRT/PPP/PT now explains this in the North / North-East the way, that the “Bangkok Elites” want to take the voting rights away from the “stupid farmers” of the North/North-East! Now everybody might think how he would feel if he were one of the “stupid farmers”. Of course you can gain support with this propaganda strategy, you can create even riots if you hammer this argumentation into the heads of the villagers. This is one of the reasons that we see this massive polarization and political extremism in the Thai population, which did not exist before. Thais usually tend to live together in peace and solve problems with the help of elder more experienced people. These traditional Thai desire to be friend with everybody is now in jeopardy, a rift is going straight through the society.
Notwithstanding your patronising views on the less wealthy sections of Thailand's population, that's your interpretation of events. Many other observers interpret the situation as, after being empowered a little bit by Thaksin, and after finally getting widescale electrical power and subsequent tv sets, satellite tv, computers and internet, the rural poor have become much more aware of their circumstances and the circumstances of their 'betters'. It's no coincidence that some leading royalists are suggesting that Thailand should largely isolate itself from the outside world and return to being a feudal society. It's also no coincidence that the Democrats are proposing control and censorship of Thailand's internet access (under the guise of stopping the ubiquitous lese majeste, of course).
btw, The Spanish were generally quite stoically happy under Franco's repressive regime. Says a lot about the general population and very little about their governance imo. Same as Thailand.
The polarization is visible everywhere right now, red and yellow shirts – partially created / supported by the media. One very simply example from this thread, introduced to us as an “An excellent summary :”
http://www.prachatai.com/english/news.php?id=900
I read only the first part of it:
“The Democrat Party is known among the cyber community as “Cockroach Party”...” - ok, that’s it. I don’t need to read further, I know that this is journalism of the lowest level, tendentious, I know what will be written in the following chapters. I will stop reading this nonsense, but others will read and believe it. And if somebody would write “The TRT/PPP/PT is known among the cyber community as “Worm Party” ...” I would immediately stop reading that either. All this is lousy journalism, should be too lousy for the masses either, its dumbing down of society ...
It's the polarisation that you alluded to earlier. People have been bitter, and situations and language have often become ugly for a while now on both sides. Of course, the Old Elite (via their Democrat representatives) are now back on top of the situation, so there will be pithy conciliation gestures from them for now rather than the storming of airports, hijacking of buses, etc, of before.
Coming back to the initial point: In my POV it does not make a difference for the vast majority of the people whether TRT/PPP/PT or a government supported by the old elite robs and plunders the country.
Let’s not forget: Thaksin and his TRT/PPP/PT had it all. After 4 years of governing he was re-elected in 2005 from the vast majority of the Thai population. He had the majority of MP seats even in Bangkok! The only part of the country where he could not really gain ground was the South. And that had a reason – he had openly declared that constituencies who had elected his party would be preferred in government support / spending. The South is traditionally a stronghold of the Democratic Party. To say this openly was may be the biggest political mistake Thaksin made in his first four years, but still he was re-elected with nearly 64 % of the parliament seats (if I remember correctly). The Thais were happy with his government – he was the first Thai PM who made a full term and was re-elected. Thailand had a stabile government, and even most of the foreigners appreciated that, too.
What happened then? Corruption cases popped up in the first year of his second term, the Myanmar credit case, the Ratchadaphisek land case, the airport related corruption cases etc. etc. . Suddenly demonstrations on the streets, the PAD picking the political trend up jumping on the train to head the movement. And then finally the sale of the Shin Corporation – with some Thai laws “adjusted” only days before the deal took place - simply to legalize it.
There are different interpretations possible. Most likely Thaksin got too powerful for the old elite, and needed to be stopped. That’s the explanation we hear from many political analysts, mostly from outside Thailand. Possible, likely, but nobody knows for sure. But coming to the point – was that really necessary?
Thaksin knows Thailand, he knows how to play the game, he knows that he has to keep his fingers out of the rice bowl of the elite. He is not stupid, the way he uses the masses from the North / North-East to ensure the re-election of his party shows that he plays the game quite well, is able to analyze structures and implement strategies based on that analysis. How could me make this huge mistakes?
For what did he need this piece of land in Ratchadaphisek – we are not even talking about 1 Bio THB here! For what does he need to get involved into loans given to Myanmar for buying satellite / telecom equipment from one of his companies? Others can arrange that. He was playing the game so clever with the poor of the North / North-East – why was he not able to arrange his power base with the old elite? They basically have the same target as he has – to make as much money with the country Thailand as possible.
One tactical move would have made him the PM for his lifetime: Sell Shin Corp and put a part of the profits (gains of the stock price) into a public foundation to fight poverty in Thailand! Use the profits of that foundation to pump money into the rural areas. And then – sell all that with his propaganda machine to the Thai people! If he had done that (as a kind of investment) he still were PM today and in the years to come, and nobody could touch him. And over the time he could easily recover is investments ... it would have paid off big time in the future.
But – he did not. He lost it somehow, after he had the power. He wanted more and more power – he wanted to be the “Mahatir of Thailand”. He forgot that he had to keep an eye on the old power structures, and had to get them involved into his transformation process of the policies of the country. He wanted it all – and it was too much too fast.
Thaksin should have taken your counsel (really). But megalomania and greed appear to be all-consuming.
Now Thailand has to deal with the aftermaths of this development. The rift of the Thai society is still there, and the new government will struggle to deal with all the problems. The actual cabinet line-up does not show a strong start at all – it is done the same way the TRT/PPP/PT lead governments did it before. Cabinet seats for factions, coalition partners, thank-you for your support jobs – competence is not really important. The technocracy discussion could come up again – somebody remembers it?
But even worse – this government has to deal with the global recession, up to now only visible at the horizon here in Thailand. But in 2009 the country will get hurt, and many workers / employees will lose their jobs. Poverty will rise, and additional government spending will be difficult due to the limitations of the efficiency economy policies and lower tax income. This government will most likely be blamed with the coming economic downturn, and then wiped away by a non-confidence vote and new general elections.
What concerns many is that the global recession hitting Thailand next year may be the catalyst for the unthinkable "way one" that you mentioned earlier.
There is still the option that we might see a PM Thaksin again. But would that really be good for Thailand? A guy as PM again, who had already proven that he is unable to deal realistically with the power structures of the country? A guy who has already shown his ability to misuse the people of the North / North-East for his power games? A guy who has demonstrated how corrupt the top politician of a government can be? And - if not Thaksin - who else is there in the TRT/PPP/PT party, for the position as a PM?
I doubt that Thaksin's return would move Thailand forward. But - it would still be better than a worst-case scenario: a civil war, yellow against red.
Giotto
Thaksin came within a whisker of 'dealing with' the Old Elite power structures in 2006. That's why the military coup took place. And he managed to move Thailand slightly forward inbetween his corrupt business dealings. The Democrats will try to move Thailand backward toward the semi-feudal society that their backers require.
And so, you in depth experience of Isaan comes from? Reading the newspapers? Or travelling at length throughout Isaan and talking to people and seeing what has been done?
I think you simply read the PAD sponsered spin in the media.
If you look at Isaan 8 years ago, and today, you will see massive changes, many new businesses, lots more real employment, lots more wealth has been generated, and now these people no longer "sell their votes for 300Baht". They appreciate there is more from general developement than a quick 300B. Which is the problem the PAD saw coming, if you educate the "unwashed" and make thier savvy, you lose the power to corrupt them with a couple of red notes.
The drugs trade is nowhere near what is was like before Thaksin came into power. All over the country (if you bothered going outside Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket etc.) drug peddling was rife, every village in the whole country had drug peddlers, most waiting outside schools to peddle Ya Ba to kids. Lots of them got bullets as a reward, and today the country remains much cleaner than it was before Thaksin came to power.
Thaksin was very good to the Thai people, but very bad to the elite in Bangkok, those few who always took all the money.
Thaksin never wanted total power, this is bullshit. The PAD want to retain total power for the elite in Bangkok, yes, and they have again succeeded.
Thaksin will be back when the King gives him a pardon, might not be this one, but the next one very likely will is what is said.
Every political party is CORRUPT.
Obama spent 600 million US$ getting elected. And this is not going to be repaid in kind?
What planet do you live on?
Politicians have a code of conduct and certain "vested interest" deals are not reported, although downright corruption is. What happened with Thaksin is that the "normal" vested interest deals got reported and blown out of all proportion. The "code of conduct" was broken, and now they are trying to put it all back into place.Giotto, are you the PAD/Democrats media spin man?
Terry Terrier,
Surprise - reasonable disagreements, I am not getting ripped into pieces :) ?
Some remarks:
It's not being "idealogised", it's being understood and explained as the straightforward battle between the Old Elite and Thaksin's New Elite that it is.
I disagree on the "straightforward" part, sticking to my opinion that it is not that easy. There are many supporters of Thaksin in the old elites as well as many supporters for the old elites in the rural areas, especially in the South. Its a complex structure of power and support. The best example is again and again the B. family, with family members in all parties (including TRT/PPP/PT), the army, the police, everywhere in the administration.
That's actually three ways.
...What you count as two and three only works together. If one side does not move nothing will change.
The problem with this POV is that most villagers and villages couldn't even get loans from the banks. And, in times of hardship and desperation (bad crop years, etc), they ended up borrowing from private lenders at astronomical interest rates, leaving them indebted to the lenders for life or until their offspring could raise enough money from selling their bodies. Which is why this policy has been a big vote winner among the poor.Agreed.
But - the same problem with taking money from private lenders will occur again, when those loans have to be paid back.
...
The financing system for the scheme is undoubtedly flawed, and the government does not provide enough money for it, but the suggestion that efficiency of treatment is close to zero is mis-informed to say the least.
...OK, we can disagree about that. I think it is quite dangerous to pretend that there is reasonable treatment available for THB 30 a day and afterwards people die.
No, that's the anecdotal reality of one specific failure of the scheme, and we could find more of the same. And if you ever travel in the poorer regions of Thailand, you should take the time to ask around the villages and small towns about opinions on the scheme. Most families you will talk with will have a story to warm your heart. That is why this fledgling scheme, despite all it's problems, is such a resounding success and vote winner.
...
Anecdotal reality then on both sides. Correct, the scheme was sold well to the people living in the poorer regions and is for sure a vote winner for Thaksin. But I find it highly immoral to play with the health of people for political reasons.
Thaksin came within a whisker of 'dealing with' the Old Elite power structures in 2006. That's why the military coup took place. And he managed to move Thailand slightly forward inbetween his corrupt business dealings. The Democrats will try to move Thailand backward toward the semi-feudal society that their backers require.No, Thaksin did not arrange himself and his government with the old power structures, he tried to move his supporters into all important positions (even within the army). He tried to push the old elites out. That will not work in Thailand.
I don't think that anybody wants to move Thailand backwards towards a semi-feudal society. That something like a semi-feudal society exists and works is basically the result of the education of the Thais to be obedient to all "higher" people (I wrote about that before). And to change that will need time!
The Democratic-led governemt will have learnt from the TRT strategies (its not that difficult to understand how this methods worked in the past), and they will apply the populist polocies for the North / North-East, too. The question will be whether they can succeed with that, or whether the global recession will limit their options, that expectations cannot be fulfilled. Then the situation will become critical.
Giotto
That is total bullshit.
The Democrats and their PAD sponsors have no interest in populist policies or getting people in the North/North-East to support them.
All they will do is pay "lip service". They will talk about it and keep the media talking about it, whilst they do what they were put into power to do, push Thailand backwards and get rid of everything that was changed by TRT/PPP and push Thailand backwards, so the Cockroaches can enjoy feeding again without worry or care.
The LAST TWO DEMOCRAT governments were kicked out due to corruption. It was so obvious it was done while they were in power, it did not need a coup and then a concerted effort to fabricate some while the coup was in effect.
The Democrats got kicked out in full view of everyone, twice - were you even in Thailand at that time Giotto?
The Democratic-led governemt will have learnt from the TRT strategies (its not that difficult to understand how this methods worked in the past), and they will apply the populist polocies for the North / North-East, too. The question will be whether they can succeed with that, or whether the global recession will limit their options, that expectations cannot be fulfilled. Then the situation will become critical.
Giotto
Terry Terrier
12-22-08, 08:01
There are many supporters of Thaksin in the old elites as well as many supporters for the old elites in the rural areas, especially in the South. Its a complex structure of power and support.
Yes, there are some fascinating anomalies/allegiances within the basic battle lines, the one of The Son being the most fascinating as suggested by my "stupid" friend Easy2007 (I wish he'd learn to use the quote function properly :D). He appears to be weak and impulsive, but maybe there is a Henry the fourth pt2 in him. Maybe The Mother's support is well-founded. What a bonus for Thailand if it was the case!
Terry Terrier
12-22-08, 08:54
No, Thaksin did not arrange himself and his government with the old power structures, he tried to move his supporters into all important positions (even within the army). He tried to push the old elites out. That will not work in Thailand.
That's what I was suggesting. It very nearly worked in 2006 and may well do so in the future with a little more support from certain factions.
I don't think that anybody wants to move Thailand backwards towards a semi-feudal society.
There are some powerful factions (currently in the ascendacy) who are proposing this very thing. Read the press, even the shackled Thai press.
The Democratic-led governemt will have learnt from the TRT strategies (its not that difficult to understand how this methods worked in the past), and they will apply the populist polocies for the North / North-East, too. The question will be whether they can succeed with that, or whether the global recession will limit their options, that expectations cannot be fulfilled. Then the situation will become critical.
Giotto
Will they have learned? I'm doubtful. They have already backtracked. And imo their paymasters will insist on them moving backward, rather than forward, on these issues.
Obama spent 600 million US$ getting elected. And this is not going to be repaid in kind?
Well, one interesting thing about Obama's donors is that many, perhaps most, of them are 'ordinary people' - in other words workers. Commoners can never be repaid in our system, only exploited. Obama will end up being co-opted by the owning class, just like all Democrats, but a goodly portion of the $600 million came from people who cannot be 'repaid in kind'. They just gave it purely out of wishful thinking, the dears.
Sorry for the divergence from Thai to American politics, just wanted to make that one point.
I would like to bring up one question for you, however, Easy. Your suggestion that the heir apparent would pardon Thaksin intrigued me, but I wonder if it is likely. He may have a friendly or even dependent relationship with that tycoon, but once he ascends, why would he pay back past favours? Perfidy seems a wiser and more likely course.
There is a structure in place for which that highest office is the figurehead, and it seems unlikely to me that he would toss aside that older elite in favour of the new, once he is installed. One wonders if it would even be possible.
His position may be somewhat insecure anyway due to personal unpopularity, so I doubt turning himself over to the power of a populist strong man would be adviseable. No, his course to the greatest security and perhaps even someday some power and influence would be to adopt as carefully as possible the role prepared by his predecessor, and to cultivate the intimate relationship with that traditional elite which spawned them both. To favour his old chum Thaksin would create something near to a regency.
M P Lurker
12-22-08, 12:07
I would like to bring up one question for you, however, Easy. Your suggestion that the heir apparent would pardon Thaksin intrigued me, but I wonder if it is likely. He may have a friendly or even dependent relationship with that tycoon, but once he ascends, why would he pay back past favours? ......
Although Thai people use the word "GrengJai" meaning sort of "indebtedness" a lot when they talk, they don't actually feel it much. Farangs don't talk about it much but really feel it and tend to return favours more-so in my experience. If you help Thais too much they may instead feel embarrassment in your presence and therefore avoid you.
Even paying back borrowed money is more a Farang thing. e.g. Family members "borrow" money from a Thai girl. Will she ever see any of it back?
I have only met a very small number of Thais that you could lend money to and expect to get it back.
Or have I merely been mixing with too many of the wrong Thais?
But I tend to agree with Opebo. Once getting to the all powerful position, why return the favour to anyone?
Terry Terrier
12-22-08, 13:36
But I tend to agree with Opebo. Once getting to the all powerful position, why return the favour to anyone?
The Son is very unpopular with Thais in general, not just the Bangkok Thais that OTH often told us about. It would be extremely difficult, upon ascendancy, for him to align himself with Thaksin. But long-term it makes perfect sense: He would gain instant popularity among the masses and would become a 'King of the people' the same as his father, but without the wearing obligations to Old Money that his father has (though he would have obligations to Thaksin, of course :().
M P Lurker
12-22-08, 14:17
(though he would have obligations to Thaksin, of course :().
There is no "of course" about it. People with completely selfish character do not feel obligated. Does a leopard change its spots? There are plenty of reasons to forget.
Look to mummy for guidance.
...
There are some powerful factions (currently in the ascendacy) who are proposing this very thing. Read the press, even the shackled Thai press.
...
Come on, moving back to a semi-feudal system - nobody really wants that. They want to control the power, the key positions, but they are acting in the background - I really would not call it a semi-feudal system.
Giotto
Easy2007,
Sometimes I think you only want to provoke people, and you do not really believe the nonsense you write here.
...
I think you simply read the PAD sponsered spin in the media.People who do not support Thaksin or even criticize him are simply PAD supporters, right? You live in an "easy" world :) ...
... and now these people no longer "sell their votes for 300Baht".
...Some might have found a job. Many of them still sell their votes. Not much difference to before.
Thaksin was very good to the Thai people, but very bad to the elite in Bangkok, those few who always took all the money.Nonsense! Stupid bullshit propaganda! Thaksin was not bad at all for the Bangkogians, his tax reform left more money in the pockets of the middle class than it was ever pumped into the North / North-East. The majority of Bangkok voted in 2005 for TRT/Thaksin!
Thaksin never wanted total power, this is bullshit. The PAD want to retain total power for the elite in Bangkok, yes, and they have again succeeded.Now - that's exactly what I would call bullshit! I think that most of the people agree, that Thaksin finally failed because he wanted to much power too fast. The PAD has no power at all, and after their airport disaster you will most likely see this group disappear. Nobody I know supports them any more.
Thaksin will be back when the King gives him a pardon, might not be this one, but the next one very likely will is what is said.I agree. This King will not, but one if the really bad scenarios for Thailand would be a possible deal struck between Thaksin and the son. I wrote about this option already. Horror scenario!
Obama spent 600 million US$ getting elected. And this is not going to be repaid in kind? Oh god.
What planet do you live on? And you?
Giotto
Easy2007,
That is total bullshit.
...
It is you who writes bullshit here in this thread.
The Democrats and their PAD sponsors have no interest in populist policies or getting people in the North/North-East to support them.Why not? They have the same interest to be re-elected as the TRT/PPP/PT ! Why should they not use the same methods to archive this targets?
All they will do is pay "lip service". They will talk about it and keep the media talking about it, whilst they do what they were put into power to do, push Thailand backwards and get rid of everything that was changed by TRT/PPP and push Thailand backwards, so the Cockroaches can enjoy feeding again without worry or care.Cheap demagogy! It is easy to do the same the Thaksin administration did before. Introduce healthcare but do not pay for it, loans for villages, which have to be repaid ... we discussed this. And what does it mean - push Thailand backwards? Any details of this process available?
The LAST TWO DEMOCRAT governments were kicked out due to corruption. It was so obvious it was done while they were in power, it did not need a coup and then a concerted effort to fabricate some while the coup was in effect.
The Democrats got kicked out in full view of everyone, twice - were you even in Thailand at that time Giotto?I know that the first Lekpai goverment was kicked out in 1995 because of the Phuket land corruption case. Lekpai was not involved. It might be interesting for readers that it was Newin, who that time uncovered this case of corruption and brought the Democrats down - the same Newin who was the right hand of Thaksin before and lead his faction to vote for the new goverment a few days ago.
The second Lekpai goverment was not kicked out because of corruption cases, but there were smaller cases too during that time, as usual in Thailand.
In-between we then had the government of the New Aspiration Party - Chavalit here in Thailand. Do I really need to describe the realities of the Chavalit government and the Asian Crisis (1997/1998) ? And - do you remember that Chavalit was then member of the TRT/PPP/PT and also involved in several governments of the Thaksin administration? One of the biggest criminals running around here in Thailand? DO I NEED TO REMIND YOU OF THAT????
Nevertheless - the last Democratic governments did not "smell from the head" (as we say in Germany) - like the Chavalit administration, like the Thaksin administrations. Chuan Lekpai is in general still seen as a politican with a clean record. Chavalit and Thaksin not!
That you still blindly defend Thaksin in the name of the Isaan people only proves stupidity to me. Even today many Isaan people have not understood that they were simply [mis]used as voters for the political power trip of the egomaniac and later megalomaniac power hungry politian Thaksin. I can only shake my head, that after all what we know about him and his activities he still has supporters.
A last word regarding the "cockroaches". I think that Abhisit does not deserve such bullshit - he deserves a chance. It will be difficult for him to make it anyway. This argumentation is not very helpful, not for Thailand and not for the Isaan people at all! You should wake up there in the North / North-East. There is a global recession ongoing, coming strong to Thailand next year. The rice and rubber price is down already - and more bad news will come up soon.
As always the Isaan people will complain to the Thai government about the falling rice and rubber prices - but we are talking about world market prices here. Your businesses there will go down, because the economy suffers, but you will blame the Democratic government - many people there are as "politically blinded" as you are, Easy2007. There is nobody out there, not Thaksin, not the PAD, not the Democrats and not HRMTK who can prevent that economic downturn from happening, but you will blame the old elites, the Democrats and the PAD.
Sadly you will only prove PAD positions with this behaviour! And you are not even able to understand what you are doing!!
Giotto
Terry Terrier
12-23-08, 00:08
Giotto,
You have already been exposed as the chief bullshitter on this thread. Your repeated attempts to belittle democracy, your attempts to belittle the village loan schemes that broke the viscious cycle of high interest private loans, and your utterly breathtaking attempts to belittle the fledgling 30 baht healthcare scheme that has improved so many lives and saved more than a few are either baffling or sinister, and I'm not sure which. Just why are you posting your obscene bullshit here? Just what is your agenda?
Terry Terrier
12-23-08, 00:41
There is no "of course" about it. People with completely selfish character do not feel obligated. Does a leopard change its spots? There are plenty of reasons to forget.
Look to mummy for guidance.
Mick,
The more I think about this, the more I think the Thaksin option is not only the best option for The Son, but the best option for Thailand. Going down the mainstream route, The Son faces a future of being hated by everybody and despised by the Old Elite that will keep him in power for their own ends. Or he could have his Prince Hal moment that I mentioned earlier, the defining moment in his life, and a defining moment in Thailand's modern history: The rejection of the Old Elite and their Democrat representatives with their regressive and self-serving policies. The real new politics could be a dream ticket of Thaksin's undoubted management skills with the new monarch's constitutional powers and influence keeping Thaksin's excesses in check, and the Old Elite consigned to a footnote in Thai history. And Thailand would finally join the First World with it's near neighbours South Korea and Japan.
Well said TT.
The TRT did so many good things for the people of Thailand (this is the MAJORITY) and they tried to break down the old Elite and their stranglehold on Thailand.
This is how stupid some people are.
Thaksin liberated the people of Thailand, he said to them its no good taking a few hundred baht from a corrupt politician when the politician will then steal all the money you should get in infrastructure developement and land development. He showed them its better to get a party into power that will make all their lives much better in the long term, not just a short term few hundred baht.
This is why TRT/PPP and in future PT will be elected.
In the meantime we have had a despised coup, and now a second "silent coup" and the elite struggle to come to terms with life in the 21st century.
The people of Thailand now have INTERNET, they have RADIO, they have TV, they have easy access to MAGZINES and NEWSPAPERS, they have telephones and no longer are they the gullable "give up 3 hundred baht for their vote" people.
They now vote with their brains, and its why they reject the Democrats and the old Elite and want Thaksin.
This is what scares the Elite, they are losing the power to "mind control" the masses, and the masses have started to realise they hold the power.
This is why the PAD and the Elite are trying to push through a non-elected government proposal. To take away the power of democracy. This is why its no surprise to see the PAD call for "appointed government". Not elected.
Giotto,
You have already been exposed as the chief bullshitter on this thread. Your repeated attempts to belittle democracy, your attempts to belittle the village loan schemes that broke the viscious cycle of high interest private loans, and your utterly breathtaking attempts to belittle the fledgling 30 baht healthcare scheme that has improved so many lives and saved more than a few are either baffling or sinister, and I'm not sure which. Just why are you posting your obscene bullshit here? Just what is your agenda?
TT - you are on the right track now.
Why do you think Thaksin "baited" them recently by saying "he would be back after a pardon" - this was a message, explicit and to the point and "a warning".
Mick,
The more I think about this, the more I think the Thaksin option is not only the best option for The Son, but the best option for Thailand. Going down the mainstream route, The Son faces a future of being hated by everybody and despised by the Old Elite that will keep him in power for their own ends. Or he could have his Prince Hal moment that I mentioned earlier, the defining moment in his life, and a defining moment in Thailand's modern history: The rejection of the Old Elite and their Democrat representatives with their regressive and self-serving policies. The real new politics could be a dream ticket of Thaksin's undoubted management skills with the new monarch's constitutional powers and influence keeping Thaksin's excesses in check, and the Old Elite consigned to a footnote in Thai history. And Thailand would finally join the First World with it's near neighbours South Korea and Japan.
Giotto,
You have already been exposed as the chief bullshitter on this thread. Your repeated attempts to belittle democracy, your attempts to belittle the village loan schemes that broke the viscious cycle of high interest private loans, and your utterly breathtaking attempts to belittle the fledgling 30 baht healthcare scheme that has improved so many lives and saved more than a few are either baffling or sinister, and I'm not sure which. Just why are you posting your obscene bullshit here? Just what is your agenda?TT,
Oh, sorry, I did not know that I am on trial here, being exposed as a chief bullshitter on this thread. I thought this were the Thailand Politics thread of a sex forum :). Your Honour, are you the indipendant judge and entitled to return a verdict? And - only because I have a different opinion in some political questions I am guilty? That's your understanding of democracy and freedom of expression? --- You make me laugh :) !
I don't have any agenda. I just describe the political situation as I see it here in Thailand, and I am not blinded by any ideology, as others here in this thread, including you. Simple facts is what counts.
I belittle nothing. I just look at the real turn-out of political measures, not only at the ouput of a propaganda machine. And I am not impressed of the village loan scheme, and the 30 baht heathcare scheme, if the missing financing leads to really bad results of treatment. If a government does something it should really implement functioning structures, and not only pretend that this structures exist and then sell it to the people. Especially not in healthcare. And this is my honest opinion, and not "obscene bullshit" or "baffling or sinister".
Too sad, that there are always some people who need to bring discussions to a personal level, when they have no real arguments. Does that help? Do you feel better now?
Giotto
Easy2007,
The facts:
...
The TRT did so many good things for the people of Thailand (this is the MAJORITY) and they tried to break down the old Elite and their stranglehold on Thailand.Demagogy. Let's go back in history a bit - the 80th / 90th. Thailand as "Tiger Country", as a part of the Asian economic boom, massive economic growth in quite a short time period. Lots of people benefitted from this development, which admittedly took place in the industrial areas around Bangkok. This was also not stopped from the old Elites, it was more or less initiated by them. Several governments during that time, amongst those government also Democratic led governments. Why should they have any problem with Isaan developing in the same way?
This is how stupid some people are.???
Thaksin liberated the people of Thailand, he said to them its no good taking a few hundred baht from a corrupt politician when the politician will then steal all the money you should get in infrastructure developement and land development. He showed them its better to get a party into power that will make all their lives much better in the long term, not just a short term few hundred baht.Thaksin "liberated" people ... that's new to me. And he paid then a few hundred baht for their votes, AS WE KNOW, from many cases. Makes sense :) . Btw., other parties did that as well.
This is why TRT/PPP and in future PT will be elected.
In the meantime we have had a despised coup, and now a second "silent coup" and the elite struggle to come to terms with life in the 21st century.Yes, there was a military coup in 2006. The rest is demagogy.
The people of Thailand now have INTERNET, they have RADIO, they have TV, they have easy access to MAGZINES and NEWSPAPERS, they have telephones and no longer are they the gullable "give up 3 hundred baht for their vote" people.I was waiting for this argument already. Internet - basic language skills in English are needed to use it. Only some of the younger generation people can use it, and may be returning bar girls. And do you really believe that the Isaan people read the longer newspaper articles in the internet?
And do you really want to tell us that there was no RADIO and TV in Isann before Thaksin? No NEWPAPERS and MAGAZINES available? When I was upcountry that time nearly every village had that already. At least there was ONE TV around which many people gathered during evening/nighttime. What has changed is that the masses of the North/North-East have been mobilized by a giant propaganda machine.
They now vote with their brains, and its why they reject the Democrats and the old Elite and want Thaksin.Does that mean that the people in the South don't have brain? How do you explain the major difference in the voting behaviour between the South and the North/North-East?
This is what scares the Elite, they are losing the power to "mind control" the masses, and the masses have started to realise they hold the power.The real elite is not scared at all about that. They have their representatives in all political parties, including the TRT/PPP/PT.
This is why the PAD and the Elite are trying to push through a non-elected government proposal. To take away the power of democracy. This is why its no surprise to see the PAD call for "appointed government". Not elected.Complete nonsense. Non-elected government proposal - what is that? The PPP had also NO MAJORITY of MPs after the last elections, and they decided to build a coalition government with smaller parties. Some of the parties now changed and support the Democrats - and some MPs of the ex-PPP "defected" and support the Democrats.
PAD call for "appointed government" - nonsense, too. Pure propaganda! The PAD brought up the issue that only 30 % of the MPs should be elected. Target of the idea was to get technocrats into the house of parliament, people who know what they are talking about! Nobody talked about an "appointed government". And - the PAD had also no solution WHO could appoint the 70 % MPs not to be elected - and this made the discussion disappear within weeks. I did not hear anything about this issue since at least 3 months.
Guys, what does it help to argue without really looking at the facts?
Giotto
...
The more I think about this, the more I think the Thaksin option is not only the best option for The Son, but the best option for Thailand. Going down the mainstream route, The Son faces a future of being hated by everybody and despised by the Old Elite that will keep him in power for their own ends.
...Terry Terrier,
Just to avoid a wrong impression - "mainstream route". It is definitely not sure that the Son will succeed the Father. As I understand the procedure the Privy Council (19 members) will decide about the succession, once it is necessary. There are different succession solutions thinkable, and there are for sure some people seriously thinking about other solutions.
It will not necessarily be the Son.
Giotto
There will be another election sooner or later, and unless something is done about it, votes will once again be bought, which will distort the true will of the people.
In every constituency at the last election, (and earlier ones) at least one candidate bought votes, yet the EC (Electoral Commission) seemed for the most part to be blind. Not only in most cases did they see nothing, but never responded even when they were given advance factual information of cash handouts.
For future elections, the EC must do the job they are paid to do, and if necessary foreign observers should be brought in. But the main change that should ensure free and fair elections, is to punish the entire party when just one ordinary candidate cheats, instead of the present situation where the entire party suffers ONLY IF a party executive is involved in cheating. That would certainly stir things up a bit.
...
For future elections, the EC must do the job they are paid to do, and if necessary foreign observers should be brought in. But the main change that should ensure free and fair elections, is to punish the entire party when just one ordinary candidate cheats, instead of the present situation where the entire party suffers ONLY IF a party executive is involved in cheating. That would certainly stir things up a bit.Bumholes1,
I am not sure that this would work. Its a problem already today, that if an executive buys votes the party is dissolved. Only because there are black sheeps in some constituencies buying votes this should not cause the complete destruction of a political party.
The problem is again the method of appointment - in this case the appointment of the members of the EC. The last one was appointed from the coup leaders - and their members are "more blind" on the eye of the Democratic Party (though also some Democratic MPs and Senators have been red-carded) and have targetted politicians of the PPP more.
It might make sense to ban politicians (who were convicted of vote buying) from politics for lifetime. Its over, if they do it and get caught. But to automatically dissolve their parties will only cause a never ending regrouping/foundation process of parties with new names. We saw this development already.
Giotto
M P Lurker
12-23-08, 06:23
.....Or he could have his Prince Hal moment that I mentioned earlier, the defining moment in his life, and a defining moment in Thailand's modern history: The rejection of the Old Elite and their Democrat representatives with their regressive and self-serving policies. The real new politics could be a dream ticket of Thaksin's undoubted management skills with the new monarch's constitutional powers and influence keeping Thaksin's excesses in check, and the Old Elite consigned to a footnote in Thai history. And Thailand would finally join the First World with it's near neighbours South Korea and Japan.
Terry had a ridiculous dream!
...
Why do you think Thaksin "baited" them recently by saying "he would be back after a pardon" - this was a message, explicit and to the point and "a warning"....as well as Thaksin is said to have called several MPs before the PM election last monday, and begged: "Please save me, please save my life!"
Doesn't seam to me that he feels to be in a strong position right now.
Giotto
Just found something in The Nation, nearly forgotten today:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/board/thaipol/view.php?id=1911&offset=0
Reply No. 26, it refers to a story which is many times mentioned to have led to the coup in 2006:
...START
***The last military dictatorship, from 2006 to 2008, suppressed most of the democratic reforms introduced by the previous government.***
1. I disagree any military who coup and grab power and profit themselves but the last Thai coup of Sept 19 2006 was different.
It was not in real term a coup but POLICE against Thaksin's plot - STATE LYNCH by mobilizing his right man' controlling Nation Forrest Guards against PAD demonstration. Coup leader, Gen Sonthi is now proved he did not organize the coup troop as Army CnC of now, but then the commander of Prachinburi base, the most powerful cavalry division had moved initially to suppress Gen Sonthi's poor infantry division from Kanchanaburi base. However by threatening by Airforce marshal who stood by his powerful tank killer gunship helicopters, Gen Anuphong had no way but had joined the coup forces.
It was Thaksin and his puppet, Yongyudh (then minister of natural resources and environment who controlled the forrest troop) and DPM, ex police chief Chidchai, who were executing this aweful state lynch plan.
...
...
...END
To explain the important parts a bit:
- It looks as if the coup was not well prepared and staged spontaneously. Gen Anuphong (now army chief) was originally NOT supporting the coup, but then joined the coup forces.
- Gen. Sonthi justified the coup afterwards as necessary to prevent a bloodbath from happening, during a major PAD demonstration which was for the coming days that time. Thaksin/Yongyudh had planned to lead groups against that demonstration to cause unrest, riots, bloodshed - whatever. Then he had the reason he needed to declare martial law, at least for Bangkok.
That was the moment when Gen. Sonthi staged the coup, and even a Thaksin friendly Gen. Anuphong supported the coup later.
BTW: I did not write that reply No. 26. And I also disagree with the wording "state lynch" in it.
OK, guys, beat me up :):):).
Giotto
Bumholes1,
I am not sure that this would work. Its a problem already today, that if an executive buys votes the party is dissolved. Only because there are black sheeps in some constituencies buying votes this should not cause the complete destruction of a political party.
The problem is again the method of appointment - in this case the appointment of the members of the EC. The last one was appointed from the coup leaders - and their members are "more blind" on the eye of the Democratic Party (though also some Democratic MPs and Senators have been red-carded) and have targetted politicians of the PPP more.
It might make sense to ban politicians (who were convicted of vote buying) from politics for lifetime. Its over, if they do it and get caught. But to automatically dissolve their parties will only cause a never ending regrouping/foundation process of parties with new names. We saw this development already.
Giotto
My comment was just an opening gambit.
If the party was not only punished for each cheating candidate (ie banning the first 5 or 10 party list members too), plus prohibiting all elected MP's from joining another party for a minimum of 1 year when a party were thrown out, then all election candidates would not only observe the law but would also be looking over their shoulders. Proof of cheating BEFORE the election, could perhaps result in just that candidate and the party being banned from that constituency only. (Maybe to include the following election too).
Something severe has to be done and quickly.
Terry Terrier
12-23-08, 09:44
Giotto, are you the PAD/Democrats media spin man?
I doubt he's their official sexforum spin man, but he's definitely their unofficial one.
I doubt he's their official sexforum spin man, but he's definitely their unofficial one.Somebody please explains to me what a "spin man" is. Something like a public relations manager :) ?
Giotto
Terry Terrier
12-23-08, 09:54
My comment was just an opening gambit.
If the party was not only punished for each cheating candidate (ie banning the first 5 or 10 party list members too), plus prohibiting all elected MP's from joining another party for a minimum of 1 year when a party were thrown out, then all election candidates would not only observe the law but would also be looking over their shoulders. Proof of cheating BEFORE the election, could perhaps result in just that candidate and the party being banned from that constituency only. (Maybe to include the following election too).
Something severe has to be done and quickly.
The whole vote-buying issue is just a red herring. People take the money (often from ALL standing candidates) and then vote for who they were going to vote for in the first place. The really stupid people are the ones handing out money thinking it will make any difference.
Somebody please explains to me what a "spin man" is. Something like a public relations manager :) ?
GiottoA spin man's job is to highlight the good parts and down play the bad parts of a situation in order to make his side appear in good standing.
They will add possible reasons for a situation in order for their side to appear in good standing.
Adelante Siempre
12-23-08, 09:59
Somebody please explains to me what a "spin man" is. Something like a public relations manager :) ?
Giotto
Well LOS could also mean Land Of Spinners.
M P Lurker
12-23-08, 10:11
The whole vote-buying issue is just a red herring. People take the money (often from ALL standing candidates) and then vote for who they were going to vote for in the first place. The really stupid people are the ones handing out money thinking it will make any difference.
Terry,
Please don't bother making up such utter rubbish!
You do have a great imagination,
but something showing insight would be more worthwhile.
You keep thinking Thai people would behave the way you would, which is really silly.
I suppose its just trying to wind us up as its hard to believe you would really think all this crap.
So I won't bother to get sucked in next time.
Mick, just how long have you been in Thailand? Try leaving Thai historics to those who have been here 20 years plus and have seen it all "first hand".
In marginal seats all parties dish out money, and everyone takes it all, and then votes for the one they want to. Sometimes the highest paying of the 2 or 3 parties that dished out the cash might get the vote.
This system of vote buying (used by all parties including the present unelected lot) was deemed to be not very efficient by those dishing out the money, so they later revsed it to where the village headman would distribute the money, and he would also be taken to task if the village did not vote in the one who paid the money.
However the "multiple handout" from various parties still exists in some places.
You will see many reports in Thai history of "canvassers" being shot to death. It often happens when they are going around a village dishing out money and the rivals people are sat there in waiting, and then shoot them.
The last election really upset the elite, they ensured no vote buying by the PPP, they ensured no money was sent around the country by the PPP, they ensured as many TRT MP's as possible were out of the running for 5 years (they did all this as the country was still under the coup, and also many area's still under martial law, they ensured any attempted vote buying of any sort was a red card for any PPP MP.
And yet. The PPP won.
The whole "vote buying" is a red herring as TT says, as the PPP were so disadvantaged as the others could do it, and them not, but the PPP still won.
So the 'spin" is that the PPP bought the votes to try to justify the PAD and their actions.
Terry,
Please don't bother making up such utter rubbish!
You do have a great imagination,
but something showing insight would be more worthwhile.
You keep thinking Thai people would behave the way you would, which is really silly.
I suppose its just trying to wind us up as its hard to believe you would really think all this crap.
So I won't bother to get sucked in next time.
That is media spin, put out the PAD/Elite to try to make Thaksin look weak. It was only "rumour" and there is no evidence he said it.
The "pardon from the King" quote came out of the mans mouth, and its therefore believable that he said it because the evidence is there.
...as well as Thaksin is said to have called several MPs before the PM election last monday, and begged: "Please save me, please save my life!"
Doesn't seam to me that he feels to be in a strong position right now.
Giotto
Terry Terrier
12-23-08, 11:17
Terry,
Please don't bother making up such utter rubbish!
You do have a great imagination,
but something showing insight would be more worthwhile.
You keep thinking Thai people would behave the way you would, which is really silly.
I suppose its just trying to wind us up as its hard to believe you would really think all this crap.
So I won't bother to get sucked in next time.
Mick,
It's not rubbish, and I am not making anything up.
Do you have any friends living in Isaan? I have plenty, both Thai and Farang, and I know what really goes on there at election time. If you don't have anyone up there you can ask, there is a thread on the forum that deals with visas in it's Isaan sub-forum (I suspect you will have to go back a few pages now). Read and learn. And in future, do some research before throwing insults around.
The whole vote-buying issue is just a red herring. People take the money (often from ALL standing candidates) and then vote for who they were going to vote for in the first place. The really stupid people are the ones handing out money thinking it will make any difference.
In my area very few will vote for whom they want having taken the money. Most will vote as directed by the village headman under penalty of either not having access to the village fund, or not being able to vote in the next election (meaning not able to receive cash handouts in future)
Multiply that by all the villages in Isan and possibly elsewhere, and you have a government which is not truly reflective of the will of the people.
Terry Terrier
12-23-08, 11:40
In my area very few will vote for whom they want having taken the money. Most will vote as directed by the village headman under penalty of either not having access to the village fund, or not being able to vote in the next election (meaning not able to receive cash handouts in future)
Multiply that by all the villages in Isan and possibly elsewhere, and you have a government which is not truly reflective of the will of the people.
But you are basing your opinion on people voting the way that the village headman tells them to. People say one thing, and then vote the way they want to vote.
I don't pretend to be an expert on the source of TRT/PPP electoral success - for all I know it could be vote buying, or it could be genuine support by the masses. But I do think one point favours the Easy2007/Terry Terrier side of this argument, and it is simply this: the extreme nature of the opposition to TRT/PPP, from military coups to 'grass roots' political movements apparently above the law replete with royal visits to funerals, etc., suggests that there must have been something at stake here. If TRT/PPP/Thaksin did not threaten someone's power in Thai society, then why all the bizarre and hazardous actions undertaken to bring them/him down?
I live in Isaan, and I can report that virtually every single person you meet, even up into the middle classes, strongly supports PPP and thinks fondly of Thaksin, while disliking the old regime (though their particular dislike is for the Democrats, who they see as benefiting from said regime's battles without partaking). You have to get up into the uppermost reaches of the upper-middle class, and the wealthy, to find a class of Issaners that really oppose the Thaksin side.
I for one care only about which side will allow more for-foreigner P4P, and I suspect that democracy is not a friendly form of government for that sort of fun (it certainly hasn't been in my sad homeland, the benighted USA).
But you are basing your opinion on people voting the way that the village headman tells them to. People say one thing, and then vote the way they want to vote.You would be surprised how vote-buying is still prevalent and efficient in the small villages of I-San. Nobody among the poor rice farmers really wants the end of this practice. Every candidate usually get at least the minimum of votes that he or she can expect with his or her "donations". In my experience, in a given village there are not too many different extended families (including cousins, uncles, etc.).
So, several "clans" already pre-exist and all the members of a clan usually vote alike (provided that they are related with a candidate or that they receive the appropriate "incentive"). Certain "clans" won't be approached by a candidate because they are related with an opponent. The persons that are not obviously related with one clan are approached by all candidates. They may delay their support (waiting for the best bid), but once it is given to one candidate, the deal is done and (apparently) respected.
It is then not very difficult to know for whom certain groups of villagers did vote in a given election and who is very likely a black duck (if any).
But you are basing your opinion on people voting the way that the village headman tells them to. People say one thing, and then vote the way they want to vote.
Terry.
I fully accept the point you make. I wonder do you live in an Isan village. If you do/did you would soon realise that most villagers are scared of their own shadow. They prefer not to go to banks because they see all bank staff as vastly superior to themselves, Doctors, police, amphur and all officialdom are best avoided by them where possible, and if they have to see a doctor they are far too scared to ask what is wrong with them. Therefore they believe what the village headman tells them (we have ways of checking who you voted for) and generally just do what they are told. Anyway most have no idea who would be best for them, and I believe if there was no money and no pressure put on them, a large number would not bother to cast a vote.
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I live in Isaan, and I can report that virtually every single person you meet, even up into the middle classes, strongly supports PPP and thinks fondly of Thaksin, while disliking the old regime (though their particular dislike is for the Democrats, who they see as benefiting from said regime's battles without partaking). You have to get up into the uppermost reaches of the upper-middle class, and the wealthy, to find a class of Issaners that really oppose the Thaksin side.
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Opebo,
I don't live in Isaan, but from what I hear you describe the situation as it is. That again raises the question: Why only in Isaan, why don't we see the same phenomenon in the South?
You mention their "particular dislike is for the Democrats". If we now consider this villagers to usually be apolitical - where does this "dislike" come from if not hammered into their heads from a massive propaganda campaign?
Giotto
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