Thailand Politics [Archive] - Page 6

Lifeingr

05-03-10, 13:07

Can someone who has a better "grip" on Macroeconomics than I do explain to me(and the other ISG readers) why the THB is so "blessed" that its continuously high value seems to "fly in the face" of all logic and reason!

Before I give the explanation here is a short macroeconomics lesson: When a country is selling more than it imports, the demand for its currency will tend to increase as other countries ultimately need the selling country's currency to make payments for the exports. The extra demand tends to cause a rise of the currencies price relative to others.

Simple explanation: The main reason of the strong Baht is the very good performance of Thailand in exports. The economy of Thailand is heavily export-dependent, with exports accounting for more than two thirds of GDP. At the end of 2009 the Thailand's Balance of Trade (BoT) was about 0; no deficit no surplus. At the end of March 2010 the BoT was estimated at about 1 billion USD. Thailand of course has had much better performances but the figure of 1 billion is not bad; not bad at all actually if we consider the other economies of the region. And exports are to be further increased because the world economy is exiting the recession. It is this improving situation in the country's trade balance that has created the conditions for keeping the Baht basically stable despite the political turmoil.

For users with advanced knowledge in economics: The BoT is the driving factor but it is actually the very good performance of Thailand in the Balance of Payments (Balance of Trade plus/minus income from tourism (see note below), profits earned overseas (Thaksin LOL!), and interest payments; and the capital account) that keeps Baht strong. Thailand has an increasing balance of payments surplus meaning that has more funds from trade and investments coming in than it pays out to other countries, resulting in an appreciation in the value of its national currency versus currencies of other nations.

To prevent questions: Of course Thailand is loosing some money from tourism (no effect in the trade balance but it has a minor negative effect in the Balance of Payments) but these are not to much money since we are not in the high season.

Lexb

05-03-10, 19:22

For your most informative answer!

Opebo

05-14-10, 18:29

there are coming coup rumours from all sides. Now - that's not unusual in such a situation...

But - this time it will NOT be like last time (2006). If there is a coup there will be resistance everywhere.

I don't see how what you're saying can make any sense - if there is a coup now, it will be removing the Abhisit government, which is precisely a government the Thaksinites oppose. So why would they offer resistance to such a coup?

Also I can't see much rational for the military removing Abhisit - he's their man. Unless you're saying there would be a Red coup, and the resistance would be coming from the Establishment (an even less likely event), I can't see how it makes sense that there would be resistance to the military removing a military-backed front man.

Giotto

05-14-10, 18:57

I don't see how what you're saying can make any sense - if there is a coup now, it will be removing the Abhisit government, which is precisely a government the Thaksinites oppose. So why would they offer resistance to such a coup?

Also I can't see much rational for the military removing Abhisit - he's their man. Unless you're saying there would be a Red coup, and the resistance would be coming from the Establishment (an even less likely event), I can't see how it makes sense that there would be resistance to the military removing a military-backed front man.Opebo,

I understand your analysis. And I think a coup is unlikely, too.

Anyway - if there were a yellow coup background would be to remove a weak government and send a signal of strength to the red shirts - leave or face the consequences. Resistance would follow from the reds all over the country.

If there were a red coup (highly unlikely because of the command structure in the army) the resistance would possibly come from the yellow shirts.

The situation is not like 2006, when a majority of Thais appreciated the coup.

All this is speculation - I just posted this as a warning to visitors. Simply stay out of trouble.

Giotto

Fon Tok

05-15-10, 02:55

The news is reporting that Sondhi Limthongkul is quitting as head of the New People's Party and resuming his role with the PAD.

Maybe he senses there is a power vacuum growing and wants to be in the middle of the beehive that is likely to explode soon?

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/177897/sondhi-quits-new-politics

Giotto

05-15-10, 07:15

For those who are interested in the roots of the political crisis in Thailand, there is an interesting quite academic discussion on khikwai.com about TSD.

KhiKwai is Frederico Ferrara, Italian, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore. Known to be politically slightly pro-red.

His main counterpart in the comments is StanG.

http://khikwai.com/blog/2010/03/23/thai-style-democracy-1958-2010/

Giotto

05-15-10, 07:44

Some pictures ( if you are NOT a vampire don't ):

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=332383&id=125738264104959&fbid=126568174021968#!/photo.php?pid=332404&id=125738264104959&fbid=126576974021088

The Pro

05-15-10, 12:08

Some good comments and updates on this latest "Bangkok at War" blog at New Mandela.

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/05/15/bangkok-at-war/#comment-691971

The Pro

05-15-10, 12:18

Not surprising to see the "thug" and banned politician Newin involved in this (strangely he is the bed mate of Abhisit in the coalition as he is the defacto leader of Bhumhaitai, or not so strange).

http://twitter.com/terryfrd

Red MC Somchai at red stage says reds at Din Daeng caught soldier who can only speak Cambodian. That's where Suthep and Newin are recruiting
15 minutes ago via TweetDeck

The Pro

05-15-10, 18:04

Daily Mail report on the situation and murder of civilians by army snipers.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1278378/Thai-protester-shot-head-taunting-armed-troops-laser-pointer.html?ITO=1490

The Pro

05-15-10, 18:25

CNN report with video of the snipers in action.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btp-wUvNXuM

Rodwint2

05-15-10, 19:02

Some pictures ( if you are NOT a vampire don't ):

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=332383&id=125738264104959&fbid=126568174021968#!/photo.php?pid=332404&id=125738264104959&fbid=126576974021088In typical warfare situations, principal targets will be the officers, non-coms and the radio man. This photo appears to fall in that catagory.

Fon Tok

05-15-10, 23:23

In typical warfare situations, principal targets will be the officers, non-coms and the radio man. This photo appears to fall in that catagory.The dead man in the photo is reported to be part of a medical team.

The Pro

05-16-10, 02:19

The Pro

05-16-10, 02:45

Report from Bangkok by Nick Nostitz - In the Killing Zone

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/05/16/nick-nostitz-in-the-killing-zone/

.

The Pro

05-16-10, 04:20

Video of thousands of people gathering in Ubon last night to mourn the death of a local man shot by snipers in Bangkok.

Thousands with extended familes of thousands more, who now have first hand knowledge of what Abhisit's government is doing.

The use of Army with live ammo and snipers will drive the country apart, its such a shame that so many power in people in Thailand do not care about that, such is their contempt for the poor from the Elite mansions.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjZmNOWpOeQ

Fon Tok

05-16-10, 05:58

One reporter's account of bullets flying in Din Daeng:

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/05/16/nick-nostitz-in-the-killing-zone/#more-9486

Pic from this morning about 9am.

Love Sex 22

05-16-10, 07:17

Its all about Thaksin. Its nothing to do with Democracy and anti dictatorship. Imagine you had 2 billion dollars plus in a bank and you wake up one morning and the banks tells you we took 1 billion dollars from your money, and also you can not touch us and you can not come back home any more, and they do their best to make sure that he will be a refuge and homeless and no country will ever accept him as a citizen and give him amnesty. So he decided to spend maybe $100,000000.00 to train a small secret commando unit and , 200000 Issan unemployed farmers to start paralyzing the capital and creating a civil war. Thaksin is so ruthless that he would not stop unless he gets what he wants. If the army would try further harsh actions against the red leaderships and assassinate more leaders, Thaksin will go to faze two, to paralyze the tourist industry by planting some bombs in the hot spots like Nana, Soi cowboy, Pattaya walking street, Phuket, Chiang mai, and so on and so on.
The only solution before everything gets out of control.

Option--1 To come secret agreement with him give him his money back, plus his right of return to Thailand,for retirement, with guaranties that he will never be involved in politics any more.

Option--2 To assassinate him as soon as possible.

Rodwint2

05-16-10, 07:36

Using snipers against civilians is a serious human rights offence, this just shows how far it has gone, there will be lots of reports to the International Courts demanding cases be taken out against the Thai government leaders.

This whole thing is getting bigger and badder, many people are now into "no win" situations.

Saddam did not like the Kurds - the Kurds rebelled and he killed them.

Same here, if you are the government leader you are responsible.Think of it in terms of what would the US government response if the setting was Time Square in NYC. The "rally" wouldn't last even two hours before SWAT teams from various law enforcement agencies were picking off those carrying firearms, much less grenade launchers.

One man's patriot is another man's terrorist. From my point of view, it takes a lot of money to provision 10, 000 people for 40 days. Additionally, to arm a militia arm with grenade launchers and other firearms, takes even more money. Looks like a way of funding a coup and using poor people as cannon fodder by a rich dictator in waiting.

Giotto

05-16-10, 07:50

Snipers:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAc_iecUgkw&playnext_from=TL&videos=GzmyPWzhAhU

Surround77

05-16-10, 07:53

"Option--1 To come to secret agreement with him give him his money back, plus his right of return to Thailand,for retirement, with guaranties that he will never be involved in politics any more. "

This can not be an option as it is merely giving in to and legitimising Thaksin and his thugs and paid protestors. Even if there are 200,000 protesters that represents less than 0.3% of Thailand's population. How can such a small percentage be allowed to hold the country to ransom and insist that the current Government steps down. The November time frame seemed reasonable to allow things to return to normality and any serious, well meaning and intelligent opposition would have accepted it long ago, even allowing for the the fact that Abishit was not popularly elected. I thought he offered some hope for Thailand's future but who knows now. Therefore there is no intention by the "Red Shirts" and Thaksin's cronies of trying to be reasonable and this is really treason in any country.

Therefore I suggest the Government closes the Cambodian border and calls in Mossad.

Giotto

05-16-10, 08:01

Pictures:

http://picasaweb.google.com/bruinbkk/Bruinbkk#5471145813859309762

Priamos

05-16-10, 08:08

Snipers:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAc_iecUgkw&playnext_from=TL&videos=GzmyPWzhAhU

Giotto, do you know any more about how the Thai army is using its snipers? What I mean is, in similar contexts, such as for example the Israeli army presence in Gaza, armies have commissioned snipers to prick out a few dozens of rebel leaders. This has often been quite successful in demoralising the enemy force and cut off its heads. I speculate that the shooting of Seh Daeng was an example of such tactics. But...

...some of the video footage I've seen seems to indicate that snipers strafe ordinary people gathering on the outskirts of the action. Has the Thai army gone beserk, firing on anyone whom they consider Red supporters? Or is this the work of non-army provocateurs trying to create chaos?

Giotto

05-16-10, 08:47

CNN:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-r6P5GYZlg&feature=player_embedded

Giotto

05-16-10, 09:24

...some of the video footage I've seen seems to indicate that snipers strafe ordinary people gathering on the outskirts of the action. Has the Thai army gone beserk, firing on anyone whom they consider Red supporters? Or is this the work of non-army provocateurs trying to create chaos?
Priamos,

All I can say is that the news and the videos are very disturbing.

If I think back of the 10.04. and the 27 dead and over 1000 hurt people I tend to understand/defend the army for their action that day - it is still not clear to me what happened that day. After the initial sniper killings things got out of control.

What's happening right now is different. We know there are army snipers in the buildings, on the streets - and there are videos showing the shooting. Then we know that unarmed people are shot on the streets. Everybody is now entitled to make up his own mind about what's going on here right now.

The government argues that there are armed groups amongst the red shirts. What's disturbing then is that there is very little evidence for weapons close to killed people - not even anything provided by the government.

There is one video of a non-military fighter shooting a "grenade" - but it looks more to me that it is flare / signal pistol:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hmSPbugDAA

There is another video that shows a black fighter with a rifle inside the hot zone:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lmj4EOngkl0

That's all I have seen about weapons amongst the red shirt protesters. Many foreign journalists are stating, that they did not see any weapons on the red shirt side. Others speak from "alleged" weapons ...

On the other side you see the army shooting:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btp-wUvNXuM

This video was there some hours ago, now I cannot get it in Thailand any more:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...zmyPWzhAhU

Besides this issue - what's in my POV is forgotten in all the discussions is the fact that a government uses the army equipped with rifles and life ammunition against the people! The army - it's not riot police, it's the army! That - in my opinion - speaks for itself.

There is no question that somehow law and order must be restored. And there is also no question that the red shirt leader made a big mistake when not accepting the road map last week because of minor formalities and personal interests (amnestie). They are responsible for this development, too.

It's also possible that the hard core reds are armed to the teeth, and that they hide their weapons to appear unarmed as a propaganda trick. Possible.

Still - Thailand's power structure shows its real face at the moment. Using the army against the people is not acceptable to me.

Giotto

PS:
Another issue is the censorship, FACT is blocked, PRACHATAI - it is extremely difficult to get any information here in side Thailand. For me it's a sign of weakness of a government of those censorship measures are put in place.

Thaksins family left Thailand this morning, and (more importantly) Gen. Chavalit!!! Why Chavalit? He might have an idea what's going to come, and he knows that he is on the list of those who are accused of overthrowing the monachy (which is bullshit!).

Right now:

tukky_nt: Coalition parties is putting pressure on PM Abhisit to resign due to failure of handling the situation:Thairath reports
Sunday, 16 May, 2010 3:43:53 PM

Priamos

05-16-10, 11:01

Priamos,

All I can say is that the news and the videos are very disturbing.

If I think back of the 10.04. and the 27 dead and over 1000 hurt people I tend to understand/defend the army for their action that day - it is still not clear to me what happened that day. After the initial sniper killings things got out of control.

What's happening right now is different. We know there are army snipers in the buildings, on the streets - and there are videos showing the shooting. Then we know that unarmed people are shot on the streets. Everybody is now entitled to make up his own mind about what's going on here right now.

The government argues that there are armed groups amongst the red shirts. What's disturbing then is that there is very little evidence for weapons close to killed people - not even anything provided by the government.

If there's any kind of "method in the madness" then I think it must be the following: the army wants to preven Red Shirt sympathisers to cross the barriers they have erected, but they do not want to permanently have to man the barricades. So, they use snipers to pull a carpet of fire over the barricades instead. "Threspassers will be shot". Militarily speaking this makes a lot of sense. Retreating armies in Western Union (I was part of one once myself) are trained in using their snipers to maximise the value of small obstacles such as hedges and streams by putting them under intermittent sniper fire. As warfare goes this is perfectly permitted, PROVIDED...

...that you have a uniformed, well-defined enemy to shoot at. My priors are that many of the people who in the past 48 hours approached the barricades in Bangkok with some food and water were uncles and aunts to people inside rather than parts of any rebel army. If this has generated to a point where the snipers pick out anybody they suspect of being in cahoots with the Red Shirts then it has become extremely nasty indeed.

There is no question that somehow law and order must be restored. And there is also no question that the red shirt leader made a big mistake when not accepting the road map last week because of minor formalities and personal interests (amnestie). They are responsible for this development, too.

It's also possible that the hard core reds are armed to the teeth, and that they hide their weapons to appear unarmed as a propaganda trick. Possible.

Still - Thailand's power structure shows its real face at the moment. Using the army against the people is not acceptable to me.

I'm no longer sure there exists one Red Shirt movement. It looks to me as if a previous coalition of grassroot democracy activists, opposition groups and hardcore Thaksin supporters has come apart, and what remains has been hijacked by the hardliners.

I guess the main dividing line between you and me, giotto, is that I find it acceptable to use the army to eliminate Thaksin's paid lakeys such as the late Seh Daeng - whether or not they happen to be armed. My problem with the current scenario is that the army seems to have stopped separating between the government's sworn enemies and the masses of bona fide protesters. And, a lot of angry but otherwise innocent people are paying the price.

Fon Tok

05-16-10, 15:03

...What's happening right now is different. We know there are army snipers in the buildings, on the streets - and there are videos showing the shooting. Then we know that unarmed people are shot on the streets. Everybody is now entitled to make up his own mind about what's going on here right now....The government argues that there are armed groups amongst the red shirts. What's disturbing then is that there is very little evidence for weapons close to killed people - not even anything provided by the government...I went out to Rama IV Road today and got as close as the Lumpini Boxing Stadium to the action.

The bullets were only flying one direction. The soldiers were definitely "shooting to kill."

Priamos

05-16-10, 20:08

I went out to Rama IV Road today and got as close as the Lumpini Boxing Stadium to the action.

The bullets were only flying one direction. The soldiers were definitely "shooting to kill."

Fon Tok, I guess I have to ask you one question: is the one-directional shooting necessarily a bad thing? Personally, I've been hoping for almost two years that the royalist/military faction would move in and eliminate the core of Thaksin's militant support. If this is what's happening now... well, about time! My main concern is that it looks like an awful number of innocent bystanders get shot.

Fon Tok

05-16-10, 20:35

Fon Tok, I guess I have to ask you one question: is the one-directional shooting necessarily a bad thing?For me it sure wasn't!

I leave the armchair military dictatorship, Monday morning quarterbacking for someone else to comment on. ;)

Giotto

05-16-10, 20:46

Fon Tok, I guess I have to ask you one question: is the one-directional shooting necessarily a bad thing? Personally, I've been hoping for almost two years that the royalist/military faction would move in and eliminate the core of Thaksin's militant support. If this is what's happening now... well, about time! My main concern is that it looks like an awful number of innocent bystanders get shot.Oh yes,

Sure, let's eliminate 90 % (estimated red) of 38 % (living in the north/north-east) of the Thai population. Let's go! Only 22 Million people. I think that's ok.

Giotto

Terry Terrier

05-17-10, 01:09

Giotto, do you know any more about how the Thai army is using its snipers? What I mean is, in similar contexts, such as for example the Israeli army presence in Gaza, armies have commissioned snipers to prick out a few dozens of rebel leaders. This has often been quite successful in demoralising the enemy force and cut off its heads. I speculate that the shooting of Seh Daeng was an example of such tactics. But...

...some of the video footage I've seen seems to indicate that snipers strafe ordinary people gathering on the outskirts of the action. Has the Thai army gone beserk, firing on anyone whom they consider Red supporters? Or is this the work of non-army provocateurs trying to create chaos?
http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/05/16/nick-nostitz-in-the-killing-zone/

Priamos

05-17-10, 03:35

Sure, let's eliminate 90 % (estimated red) of 38 % (living in the north/north-east) of the Thai population. Let's go! Only 22 Million people. I think that's ok.

You seem to wilfully ignore my use of the words "core" and "militant". I'm not speaking of the millions of rural poor who, entirely unsurprisingly, crave social change and who for a time made Thaksim the banner around which to rally. I'm trying to draw a line between, on the one hand, the members of a mass movement and, on the other, the inner circle around a (in my view) dangerous populist plus their private militia.

See here, when the Brits got rid of Bonnie Prince Charles they did not exactly accept him sitting in France and continuing to stir his supporters back home. They cracked down hard on those supporters who continued to fund him and who were ready to fight for him. Had they not, the country would have been torn apart.

Giotto

05-17-10, 05:49

You seem to wilfully ignore my use of the words "core" and "militant".
...Priamos,

admittedly my comment was quite provocative. Sorry for that.

I don't think that the red shirt movement can be stopped, even if the core militant groups are eliminated. The government/NGOs provided buses yesterday, for those demonstrators willing to go home. Nobody came.

Giotto

NicFrenchy

05-17-10, 10:31

My main concern is that it looks like an awful number of innocent bystanders get shot.

No sir, there no longer are any innocent by standers. these people have brought the nation to its knees with their nonsense. They did what they had to do initially but this has now taken a very sour turn.

No matter what, they are staying there against the law. and the families should not bring them any food or they run a risk. People should stay as far away as they possibly can. Anyone getting close is at risk, no need to come and cry afterwards.

it's time to clean up this mess... time for diplomacy and talks are over.

Giotto

05-17-10, 10:52

...
it's time to clean up this mess... time for diplomacy and talks are over.
...Froggy,

LOL, did you wake up in your yellow shirt today :) ?

Giotto

NicFrenchy

05-17-10, 13:40

Froggy,

LOL, did you wake up in your yellow shirt today :) ?

Giotto

You know I have my period on mondays :D

Giotto

05-17-10, 13:46

Pictures:

http://www.life.com/image/first/in-gallery/42562

Amjeck

05-18-10, 05:09

I guess the main dividing line between you and me, giotto, is that I find it acceptable to use the army to eliminate Thaksin's paid lakeys such as the late Seh Daeng - whether or not they happen to be armed. My problem with the current scenario is that the army seems to have stopped separating between the government's sworn enemies and the masses of bona fide protesters. And, a lot of angry but otherwise innocent people are paying the price.
Force is necessary. Thais are violent and that is how they solve their problems. This whole mess was created by Thaksin. He doesn't care that innocent people die. Why do you?

Fon Tok

05-18-10, 10:39

There are some good video clips (from on the 'red' side of the line) on this youtube channel:

http://www.youtube.com/user/TOMBLACKDRAGON

On the video dated 15 May, beginning at about 1:03, Thai soldiers get very serious about their work. It's a good look at the realities of urban warfare...

I don't imagine the Thai gov't (MICT) will leave this up for long.

Cunning Linguist

05-18-10, 11:52

Priamos,

admittedly my comment was quite provocative. Sorry for that.

I don't think that the red shirt movement can be stopped, even if the core militant groups are eliminated. The government/NGOs provided buses yesterday, for those demonstrators willing to go home. Nobody came.

Giotto
In a nutshell, there are two elites vying for power. The non-Bangkok elite, flush with money with a more modern, albeit authoritarian way of getting things done (shooting drug traffickers, bashing heads in the South without any fear of consequences) and the traditional, lazy elite based in Bangkok who are oblivious of the concerns of normal poor people with a let-them-eat-cake attitude that stymies any kind of development for the poor, especially those outside of Bangkok.
At least Thaksin paid attention to the poor though most likely for electoral purposes. However, I believe that the red shirts have started to move on beyond Thaksin. I believe that he has created "a monster" in his bid to force the yellow elite to give back his property that has been seized. This monster is the poor people's consciousness. They are now better informed than before and are tired of being looked down upon as dark-skinned water buffaloes just happy to eat the scraps from the elite's tables.
If the elites, red or yellow, fail to offer a better deal to the poor, they just might stand to lose more than face.

The Pro

05-18-10, 15:33

This article has caused a bit of a stir in Australia, certainly upset the Thai Embassy there.

I wonder why?

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/scheming-king-unwilling-to-stop-the-violence-on-bangkoks-streets-20100517-v9bt.html

Fon Tok

05-18-10, 16:35

Lots of recent "on the ground" action photos here:

http://www.flickr.com/groups/bangkok_burns/pool/

Patranov

05-18-10, 20:13

Pictures: http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/05/protests_turn_deadly_in_thaila.html

NicFrenchy

05-19-10, 17:11

Central World is no longer.... these fucking thugs burned it.

Tiger 888

05-19-10, 17:14

Central World is no longer.... these fucking thugs burned it.It's not as simple as that. It's the voice of the poor. If one ignores that for too long, it will be pay time one day.
Right now they've hit Pattaya.

Mrdurden

05-19-10, 18:25

A question from a Thailand outsider (who hopes to visit in 3 weeks):

Today seemed to be very eventful, with some headlines at first indicating that the protest was over and the red shirts supposed to head home. Then came the fires and more vandalism/violence.

So, despite the fires and vandalism, do you think today's events were positive in the long-term? Or is the situation today even worse than it was yesterday? Are the red shirts really more pissed off now than ever before, or was the fire/vandalism just one last comment/sign to those in power that the promised elections in November should go through - or else. ?

Pita123

05-19-10, 20:08

It's not as simple as that. It's the voice of the poor. If one ignores that for too long, it will be pay time one day.
Right now they've hit Pattaya.
Voice of the poor my ass! The voice of the poor would have accepted the proposed elections. This is not the voice of the poor but the voice of the dumbasses who support Thaksin and his cronies.

Naughty

05-19-10, 20:20

Central World is no longer.... these fucking thugs burned it.

Y'aint seen nuttin' yet Nic.

The poor got a taste of the pie of prosperity under Thaksin. They liked it. Abhisit and the yellows took it away. They want their fair share.

I'm hoping that a firestorm (a real one, not a figurative one) doesn't develop today, but I fear it might.

There will be a guerilla insurgency now. No place is safe. The army and police will suffer violent splits. Random acts of terror will occur. There will be attacks on tourists intended to disrupt that revenue flow.

If you are still in BKK, I think it's about time to get the hell outta Dodge!

Edit to add: It is very sad, and it was foolish of the Reds not to accept the offer of a November election. It was, I think, even more foolish for Abhisit to withdraw the offer and start this maelstrom of violence. Had he left it on the table at some point it probably would have been accepted.

Now Khun Abhisit has tied his own hands. If he renews an offer of elections, he loses face. If he doesn't, Bangkok (if not Thailand itself) burns.

Terry Terrier

05-19-10, 22:40

Voice of the poor my ass! The voice of the poor would have accepted the proposed elections. This is not the voice of the poor but the voice of the dumbasses who support Thaksin and his cronies.
Yes, your ass indeed! Elections were never really offered. They would have taken place if 'this, that and the other prerequisites' all fell into place according to the current regime's interpretation. Abhisit refused to set the elections in stone because his controllers had no intention of honouring his vague promises. Factor in the issue of the King and his chronic ill-health (there is a 1000 day mourning period scheduled during which, no elections of any type or form can be held) and it's clear that said backers have no plans to return the mandate to the electorate any time soon. This will suit a lot of expats such as Nic because Disneyland Thai-style won't be so colourful for them when Thailand catches up with South Korea and Japan as a first world democracy.

Naughty

05-19-10, 22:45

Yes, your ass indeed! Elections were never really offered. They would have taken place if 'this, that and the other prerequisites' all fell into place according to the current regime's interpretation. Abhisit refused to set the elections in stone because his controllers had no intention of honouring his vague promises. Factor in the issue of the King and his chronic ill-health (there is a 1000 day mourning period scheduled during which, no elections of any type or form can be held) and it's clear that said backers have no plans to return the mandate to the electorate any time soon. This will suit a lot of expats such as Nic because Disneyland Thai-style won't be so colourful for them when Thailand catches up with South Korea and Japan as a first world democracy.

Yup. Gospel.

Member #4698

05-19-10, 23:57

It is amazing to read red shirt spin here. OK, where am I going wrong?

Abhisit was set up as a caretaker PM. Nobody thought he was going to be in office for the long haul. New elections were promised in front of the whole nation and the world. The red side would have almost certainly won those elections. Therefore, the red shirt demonstrations in April and early May were victorious and the red shirts were about to get 99% of what they supposedly were protesting for.

So what do these the red shirts leaders do? Proclaim victory and get ready for winning the November elections? No, they make new demands that they know the Abhisit ruling party cannot agree to like arresting themselves and going on trial for political crimes and murder.

I can only conclude that the red shirt leadership was never interested in new elections. They wanted to take over the government permanently. Dictatorship! When Abhist refused to cave in, the result is what we see playing out on TV and newspapers. It was a foregone conclusion.

The question now is: where does Thailand go from here? Will there be more demonstrations in outlying provinces, a cooling off period, or civil war? I don’t know the answer.

Phuquer

05-20-10, 00:13

Naughty, I wanted to reply here as it is more appropriate than in the Bangkok forum.

I understand that Abhisit took power the wrong way. I understand that the government in Thailand is corrupt and the majority of Thais want a new, democratically elected government in place.

But that doesn't give the reds the right to destroy Bangkok, and now other parts of Thailand the way they are now doing. They are destroying the homes, businesses, and property of other Thais. They are driving away tourism and business investments. How is this helping anybody?

Their words to Abhisit is "If you want to rule the country, you can rule a burned country". So if they can't have it, burn it.

I never had a real opinion of Thaksin either way before this. Now I do, and it's not good.

My Thai friends in Bangkok (the ones that I have been able to get in contact with) have been crying because of this damage to their country.

Even after the military moved in, it didn't have to go this way. The reds could have dispersed and regrouped some other time and some other place to protest. They chose not to.

I'm sorry that they chose to do what they did.

NicFrenchy

05-20-10, 02:24

This will suit a lot of expats such as Nic because Disneyland Thai-style won't be so colourful for them when Thailand catches up with South Korea and Japan as a first world democracy.

Why would you speak like you anything about what I would find suitable or not? tourist.

Yin Yang

05-20-10, 11:27

Amjeck

05-20-10, 12:42

Right now they've hit Pattaya.
Please Elaborate. Pattaya looks fine to me.

The Pro

05-20-10, 12:58

It was funny, Korn (Finance) tripped up in his BBC interview yesterday, when asked about the recent offer of November elections he started "That was never. " and then cut to "the offer was taken off the table".

You are correct Terry, there was never a true offer of elections. Abhisit loaded the offer with " if if if if if if if if if if if if if if" and if all those ifs were satisfied there could be Nov elections. So weak was his offer than he did not even bother to say when the House would be dissolved, just said "oh. Some time September".

It was a total non-offer.

If the Reds had tanks and an army doing what they say, there could have been a bloodless coup.

If the Reds could pervert the judicial system they could have got the government kicked out by banning some political parties.

Sadly the army and the judiciary are under the control of the Yellows, and there is a Yellow government "installed".

So with no army, no tanks and no power of the judiciary what do the reds have left?

They have only peaceful protest.

And if you put in snipers to blow their heads apart and take away their rights to protest by sending in the army. What do they have left?

What you are seeing is what they have left, the power to embaress the Yellow Elite in front of the Worlds Media.

Motor Man

05-20-10, 15:07

Never mind democracy and elections (which some red shirts actually might have desired), their leaders' plans to create turmoil were clear right from the beginning. Just watch one of them, Arisman, urge his followers to take bottles to Bangkok - not for water but for Molotov cocktails, of course: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4z6wguu-klAPaying the devils advocate here. How about the buzz that it is the government that is behind the fires in Central World and the Stock exchange? All these areas are very well guarded and the current government is known to mislead and control information.

Just a thought to ponder

Giotto

05-20-10, 18:01

Quite balanced report in The Australian:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/thailands-bitter-divisions-widened-by-bloodshed/story-e6frg6zo-1225868873337

Giotto

Giotto

05-20-10, 18:59

Shocking pictures here:

http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/thanong/2010/05/19/entry-1

It is definitely NOT necessary to read what Thanong writes. Print it and use it as toilet paper (the text) ... wait, may be I am wrong. May be you should read what he has to say, and make up your own mind. Its definitely not about being red, yellow, multi-colored or naked - if you want to read a piece of bad journalism then this is a example report to study.

But - the pictures are worth the click on the link ...

Giotto

PS:
Example of quality journalism of Thanong:

I have heard that Arisman Pongruengrong has also managed to make a great escape. He put on a wig and dressed like a woman before managing to disappear from the rally site. From Spiderman in the previous episode, Arisman has become Pretty Woman.

Giotto

05-20-10, 19:49

It was funny, Korn (Finance) tripped up in his BBC interview yesterday, when asked about the recent offer of November elections he started "That was never. " and then cut to "the offer was taken off the table".
...The Pro,

I read the same comment on different internet sites, but nobody had a confirmed source.

What Korn really said (don't have the source either right now, but it exists) is that it does not make any sense to perform immediate elections under the given political circumstances (this are my words).

In my POV he is right with this statement. He is anyway one of the more moderate and thoughtful politicians in this Government.

So with no army, no tanks and no power of the judiciary what do the reds have left?

They have only peaceful protest.
I basically agree. But - the big problem for the reds shirt leaders was that they had no control over the militant forces that joined the demonstration.

Burning Bangkok down is NOT what I would call a "peaceful protest".

Giotto

Giotto

05-20-10, 19:58

Paying the devils advocate here. How about the buzz that it is the government that is behind the fires in Central World and the Stock exchange? All these areas are very well guarded and the current government is known to mislead and control information.

Just a thought to ponderMotor Man,

I heard this thesis, too. Better, you don't believe ANYTHING what you read, whether it is from the Government or from the Red Shirts. The army did not shoot at innocent people, no sniper attacks, no armed fighters amongst the reds, no "men in black" ...

There are hundreds of videos and pictures available in the internet - make up your own mind. In regards of Central World - why to speculate about something which cannot be proven right now?

Giotto

Terry Terrier

05-21-10, 00:31

Why would you speak like you anything about what I would find suitable or not? tourist.
And why would you write like you (know) anything about the depth of my personal interest in and connections with Thailand? Temporary playboy resident.

Terry Terrier

05-21-10, 00:58

New elections were promised in front of the whole nation and the world.
No they weren't. Read my previous post.

So what do these the red shirts leaders do? Proclaim victory and get ready for winning the November elections? No, they make new demands that they know the Abhisit ruling party cannot agree to like arresting themselves and going on trial for political crimes and murder.
The red shirt leadership were angling for a level playing field come judgement day. The army were shooting protestors on sight outside of the encampments, as witnessed by the world's press. The army weren't there by accident, so some of the decision makers will eventually have to be held accountable for the murder and carnage committed by the army.

I can only conclude that the red shirt leadership was never interested in new elections. They wanted to take over the government permanently. Dictatorship! When Abhist refused to cave in, the result is what we see playing out on TV and newspapers. It was a foregone conclusion.
The red shirt leadership was only interested in new elections. They know they will win them. Abhisit never genuinely offered them because he and his handlers know they will lose them. Even with large swathes of Thailand under martial law, with the army doing everything it could to help the Democrats, they still couldn't win an election that was supposed to be handed to them on a plate in 2007.

The question now is: where does Thailand go from here? Will there be more demonstrations in outlying provinces, a cooling off period, or civil war? I don’t know the answer.
Discontent will simmer and boil. The return of the repulsive Thaksin is not the answer. Neither is the continued interference by the rest of Thailand's repulsive richest families (and I refer to ALL of them). This imo has gone beyond all of these interferers, and they all need to take a reality check if they want to hang onto a large part of their ill-gotten gains.

BionicMan

05-21-10, 12:14

few weeks ago when there seemed to be a sort of cease-hostility and the government seemed to come to a sort of deal with some promises, I commented, with light spirit "were his (the PM) lips moving when he made the promises"
Someone answered me back like I was supporting one of the two contenders, whilst I was mainly putting a semi-serious joke.
Time seems to prove that my joke had some (unwilled) elements of rightness...
It is always sad when politics and comedy mix together
More sad when casualties are on the battle-field! :(

Pita123

05-21-10, 15:18

I basically agree. But - the big problem for the reds shirt leaders was that they had no control over the militant forces that joined the demonstration.

Do you think that things would have turned out differently if Seh Daeng was still around? Perhaps the militant forces would have put up more resistance or the leaders wouldn't have turned themselves in?

Do you think that we are talking about militant factions or just common criminals that were given uniforms?

Cunning Linguist

05-21-10, 15:23

Opebo

05-21-10, 18:28

1. Of course I prefer Abhisit and the Ancien Régime quite profoundly compared to the alternative. After all, it is the survival in this unusual country of a form of government from a better time which makes it such an appealing place in which to live. Most of us come from democracies - much ballyhooed, but in practice just places of a million little dictators instead of one remote, disinterested potentate. I'll take the latter, if I can get it. Its why I'm here. Or rather, it allows for why I am here - the little dictators wouldn't.

I fear, alas, that the dear old regime may not be durable under the tide of these modern fascists. Like all good things, it is old and passing away. We can only hope we might have a few more troubled years before returning to our sad lands - after all the Tsar fell in 1917, not in 1905, however much the writing was on the wall.

2. ...there is something unique here, and perhaps an aspect of it might be described as an innocence of the commoners, but the real difference is the survival of an ancient form of government long since passed away in the west.
It is precisely that Ancien Régime which is worth saving, not a few individual serfs.

I'll relate an old Thai proverb as translated by a colleague of mine: 'The poor people spring up out of the ground like mushrooms'. The point being that they are a natural phenomenon, and harvest-time doesn't mean there will never be another stalk of rice.

Perhaps I am heartless, and perhaps I do bang, and, admittedly, as Wendell Philips said "Aristocracy is always cruel". But that doesn't change the fact that the precious artifact here is not the few simple pawns lost in the battle of Bangkok.

Giotto

05-21-10, 21:50

Giotto

05-21-10, 21:57

The Pro

05-22-10, 01:56

Here is, in my opinion, the best piece down on the current situation in Thailand to date. It confirms what I have always been saying, the yellow shirts are just as nasty as the red shirts though there are good people on both sides. In order to understand what is going on, this can be a good start:

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16168127General write ups on the events and aftermath and opinion

http://inside.org.au/bangkok-how-did-it-come-to-this/

http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2480&Itemid=185

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/05/20/commentary-on-roots-of-the-thai-crisis/

http://andrewmarshall.com/blog/voices-from-the-aftermath/

http://thaipoliticalprisoners.wordpress.com/

General pics of what went on.

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/05/crackdown_in_bangkok.html?camp=localsearch:on:twit:bigpic

Pics of the army weapons for kill shots to the head.

http://saedang.freeforums.org/topic-t2186.html

Hundreds of thousands of web sites are now blocked by the government (blocked for anyone inside Thailand), as they try to keep a hold on the actual truth and only allow people in Thailand to see their version of the truth.

Someone has found a good way of getting around it though I see.

Use Google Translate. Enter the web page and do a translate of "Thai to Thai" for Thai sites, and "English to English" of English sites and you should get around the government blocks to the web sites.

Cunning Linguist

05-22-10, 02:06

Cunning Linguist,

While I agree on your statement in regards of the good people on all sides I don't agree on the quality of this piece from the economist.

Giotto
That article jives with my understanding of the situation but I am far away and you are there with many years of experience which I respect. What do you disagree with? Just curious

NicFrenchy

05-22-10, 05:40

And why would you write like you (know) anything about the depth of my personal interest in and connections with Thailand? Temporary playboy resident.

AAwwww have I hurt your feelings? come on now boy, you know you like me, eh?

Fon Tok

05-22-10, 12:20

aawwww have i hurt your feelings? come on now boy, you know you like me, eh?maybe you two can get together, [CodeWord134] (http://isgprohibitedwords.info?CodeWord=CodeWord134) on each other, and get it over with once and for all?

Terry Terrier

05-22-10, 23:57

AAwwww have I hurt your feelings? come on now boy, you know you like me, eh?
Nic, how can you do this to me? You're my biatch, you're not allowed to step out of line :D.

Terry Terrier

05-23-10, 00:09

That article jives with my understanding of the situation but I am far away and you are there with many years of experience which I respect. What do you disagree with? Just curious
That the article gives moderate criticism of the current regime and moderate promotion of the current opposition's disgruntlement (based on G's posting history on Thai politics)?

Member #3428

05-23-10, 01:13

That the article gives moderate criticism of the current regime and moderate promotion of the current opposition's disgruntlement (based on G's posting history on Thai politics)?TT. I run my feelings more towards your way of thinking, but we as foreigners won't even begin to understand because the country is so divided as it is. It is a Thai issue not one for us. Unfortunately my work is to meddle into the political field at times and it has been a mine field for a few years, one in which we pulled out / backed out / cut ties.

Currently for the three main girls I'm seeing in Thai, one is middle road, one is totally red and one is totally yellow (did not know any of htis until the conflict started). The conversations and talking to them is so different as their opinions and beliefs are so varied on the subject. From one side wanting to burn down the entire city to the other side wanting snipers to take off more leaders and tanks to erase every red shirt in the country. What they consider to be the "truth" and what is "right" are so completely different it would be funny if it were not so scary how extremely they differ.

They've had years of unrest and simmering and things are just now coming to the surface. The airport take over last year or so was just a joke (but thanks for the extended holiday), this current happenings was just a pimple on what could come up.

The only thing that everyone I talk with agrees on (from sluts to work people) is that the unrest is not over with. And when you have distrust and feelings that are not resolved it will only fester and grow stronger and stronger and stronger. If you notice the protests get more and more dangerous each time. What was it, 37 buildings this time, how many dead and injured, I just shudder to think of the next go around what it will cost in terms of financial damage and human lives.

And we're not even considering the conflicts in the south. Mix in some criminal factions or extremists into the fray and you've got a powder keg. For an unemployed alcoholic / jaba addict with nothing to do in life what is more fun, burn down some buildings and riot or sit begging on the street with nothing to eat and no future? The downturn in the economy is only making the split between the factions larger and HM is silent. No more sitting the two sides down to talk. Do you think the CP will be able to do anything with this country when HM passes? No way. Talk about a powder keg then. Jesus I shudder to ponder the future.

Personally I'll work in Thai and go back whenever I want as these events do not faze me that much; however it is killing the economy overall and the Tourism Authority of Thai is bending over backwards trying to entice people back but it just ain't happening. I'd love to see the overall numbers as the reports I have for tourism in the past and for the upcoming months are disastrous, the exports are hurting and even the general cargo movement through the airport and ports were / are / will be disrupted so that affected BKK as a hub city overall. Heck even international mail out of Thai was halted / delayed. And what is most disturbing is that web sites, information, and reports are being blocked by the government.

They are completely just screwing themselves deeper and deeper no matter which side you are on. But it's their life and their country to set their own path.

NicFrenchy

05-23-10, 03:51

Nic, how can you do this to me? You're my biatch, you're not allowed to step out of line :D.

Sorry TT, but you did not pay my sponsorship fees this month so....

Giotto

05-23-10, 05:29

That article jives with my understanding of the situation but I am far away and you are there with many years of experience which I respect. What do you disagree with? Just curiousCunning Linguist,

May be I was too critical when reading the article. What I disliked was the mixture of facts and assumptions. There are several assumptions in this article (in regards of the role of Thaksin and some government decisions/activities) which are simply not proven up to now).

Then some important background information is missing:

- the role of the monarchy in this conflict, the silence of the king, the positions of the queen, the son and the daughter,

- the succession problem (!)

- the rift in the army, especially amongst the officers, obviously 3 fractions right now, yellow, red and career officers

- the effectiveness of the police (lets say the uselessness)

- the problem of using the army (heavily armed) against the people

- the hidden government in the background (privy council) - nearly all members are ex army officers, and there are 3 Generals in there who were involved in 4 coups and were in leading positions of the massacres in 1976 and 1992

- fundamental background information about the real income situation (and the development of it) of the rural areas in the north-east / north of Thailand, the measures taken from the governments since the Thaksin era etc. etc.

- the Lèse Majèsté law

- censorship and the related laws

The article gives a certain overview, but it just scratches on the surface of the real issues and problems.

Giotto

Giotto

05-23-10, 05:33

That the article gives moderate criticism of the current regime and moderate promotion of the current opposition's disgruntlement (based on G's posting history on Thai politics)?Just as explanation: TT believes I am too yellow because I criticized Thaksin and the effectiveness of his policies.

He is entitled to think whatever he wants to.

Giotto

The Pro

05-23-10, 06:01

Couple of articles on the situation that will mean yet more censorship of the Economist in Thailand.

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16168127

and

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16163386

Giotto

05-23-10, 06:57

Open Letter to the Red Shirts:

http://www.somtow.org/2010/05/open-letter-to-red-shirts.html

Somtow:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S._P._Somtow

ManonsanBoy

05-23-10, 07:10

The Thais brought it upon themselves. The Bangkok elite and their synchophants tried to keep the posterity to themselves. The red shirts are merely the new version of communists. They won 2 legitimate elections and saw their victory taken away from them on spurious grounds. The King is old and frail and cannot hold things together. Do not be surprised if a million red shirts march on Bangkok.

Giotto

05-23-10, 07:30

Bangkok Post:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/05/23/national/Seized-weapons-put-on-display-30130001.html

Posted as a reminder how difficult it is to deal with any kind of information right now. Car bombs are found, without any car bomb explosion before, cars carrying grenades are found in parking lots, but in one case it could be proven that the car was moved there on 21.05. (after the end of the demonstration) ... and so on and so on.

There is a massive propaganda show ongoing right now, initiated by the Government.

Giotto

Terry Terrier

05-23-10, 08:42

There seems to have been an awful lot of paranoia in Thailand wrt the world's press reporting the current troubles. Many accuse The Economist of being in Thaksin's pocket. And the attacks on the BBC's Jonathan Head over his exposure of the PAD were breathtaking. Interesting that Head got away with being a fierce critic of Thaksin's abuses, but had to leave Thailand in a hurry when he exposed the PAD.

Good points raised by both Tansak and G. But the point is missed that the Economist article (and the international press in general) is not targeting people like us: It's trying to give a balanced general overview to it's worldwide readership, most of whom just aren't interested enough in Thailand to take the trouble to delve as deeply as we do. And in that, the article does it's job very well imo.

Giotto

05-23-10, 09:28

...
It's trying to give a balanced general overview to it's worldwide readership, most of whom just aren't interested enough in Thailand to take the trouble to delve as deeply as we do. And in that, the article does it's job very well imo.Terry Terrier,

Agreed.

Here the link to the article again:

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16168127

Giotto

Lifeingr

05-23-10, 10:09

Terry Terrier,
Agreed.
Here the link to the article again:
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16168127

Giotto

Hi guys, first I want to say that the discussion over the current Thailand situation at this forum is one of the most civilized I've seen in forums dealing with Thai politics and this proves that the "sex mongers" here are far more civilized than the "political analysts" is other forums. Of course this has to be done with the overall style of the ISG also because I think that the same people might have a different attitude in various forums, but the conclusion is the same: The ISG forum is a good one to discuss Thai politics (at least until now :-p) although it seem that is is becoming less informative on Thai Sex LOL!

The last week I was writing to another forum and I posted something there saying more or less that "I am not an expert and I want to be informed but I do not like the government censorship, and if free information flow will not be restored in Thailand then bad things will happen". I was banned :-0

I liked the economist's article as one addressing "farangs" or people not having a good knowledge on Thai politics. At the same time I do agree that there are several factors, not mentioned in the economist's article, that should be taken into account.

I really want to learn more and yesterday I went to Assia Books and Kinokuniya and bought 6 books on Thai political history. At the same time I noticed that the current edition of the economist is not in the bookstores; surprise surprise!

What concerns me is that the two groups now seem to have taken the most extreme positions and thus any future negotiation attempt is by definition difficult to be successful. I've talked to several "Yellow" colleagues in the office (actually I was just listening) and what struck me is the fact that they REALLY hate the reds, they believe that there is no social problem, there are is no poverty in Thailand (they told me that the peasants should be following the sufficient economy principles and they should not feel poor), and that they support censorship and they believe that the Thai public should have access only to government-approved information. I've had no chance to talk to "Red" colleagues since nobody is openly red in the office. I assume that similar opposite opinions would have been expressed.

I'll try now to read the books I bought and try to understand more. For the time being the only point for which I can express a position is about censorship. The last 3 months hundreds of web sites have been blocked (I do not include here the ones that have been blocked because of lese majeste). For some of them I really didn't understand why. I mean OK some sites were openly supported the reds (again I do not believe that these sites should be blocked) but some other they were just giving a "neutral" opinion but they were blocked! For me free information flow is a cornerstone of democracy and I am afraid that if the Thai system will continue with this crazy control of information then in some years maybe China will be a paradise of free information flow compared to Thailand. And this can mean only a bad future for the Thai society.

And BTW if you have any good suggestion for books on Thailand's political history let me know. Thanks in advance.

Giotto

05-23-10, 10:34

Astonishing piece in Bangkok Post:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/178768/troubling-questions-after-operation-ratchaprasong

Giotto

Giotto

05-23-10, 15:29

...
And BTW if you have any good suggestion for books on Thailand's political history let me know. Thanks in advance.Lifeingr,

There is very interesting and easy-to-read book about the early history of the Thai democracy, and it still has a certain impact on todays political movements (you will find out that this is a very special book :)):

Rayne Kruger, The Devils Discus, Cassell, London, 1964 (banned in Thailand).

Then - check out the internet about the Thai translation of the book ( กงจักรปีศาจ ), the yellow and the black version (1974 and 1977, both banned in Thailand). You will find the name of Seksan Prasertkul, the student leader of the demonstrations that led to the events of Oct 14, 1973.

Afterwards you can continue with

Pridi Banomyong, Pridi by Pridi

Finally, coming closer to the actual events

Giles Ji Ungpakorn, A Coup for the Rich

This are 3 important books. Of course there are lots of standard history books, but this 3 books are special. I expect that the books about a not smiling and revolutionary king (P. Handley, W. Stevenson) are well known and don't need to be mentioned here.

Giotto

PS:
Here a link that gives some background information about those Thai translations of The Devils Discus:

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2008/05/29/the-devils-discus-in-thai/

Lifeingr

05-23-10, 15:53

Lifeingr,

There is very interesting and easy-to-read book about the early history of the Thai democracy, and it still has a certain impact on todays political movements (you will find out that this is a very special book :)):

...............................

Many thanks Giotto! I'll try to find the books. The article in Bangkok post also is really very strong. I really like very much the articles and books of Thitinan Pongsudhirak. He seems a very well rounded political scientist.

Terry Terrier

05-24-10, 00:14

Many thanks Giotto! I'll try to find the books. The article in Bangkok post also is really very strong. I really like very much the articles and books of Thitinan Pongsudhirak. He seems a very well rounded political scientist.
Yes, Thitinan has been consistent and excellent (and some might comment 'consistently excellent') with his comments. I suspect his time is now short as a politicaL pundit under the current bunch of political hoodlums.

Giotto

05-24-10, 05:22

The Sydney Morning Herald:

http://www.smh.com.au/world/is-it-ok-to-shoot-foreigners-and-journalists-20100521-w1ur.html

Temple incident:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nv0bpnXEmW8

Giotto

Opebo

05-24-10, 17:40

You fellows may have varying views on the subject, but our fun is all dependent on the victory of the side which has run things for the last 60 years. I for one couldn't care less about 'right' or 'wrong' or 'democracy'. But I know what I like.

Pita123

05-24-10, 21:40

So on the one hand things look to be calmer, on the other hand they extend the curfew for another week. What are we not being told?

Terry Terrier

05-24-10, 22:00

The last week I was writing to another forum and I posted something there saying more or less that "I am not an expert and I want to be informed but I do not like the government censorship, and if free information flow will not be restored in Thailand then bad things will happen". I was banned :-0
If it's the forum I'm thinking of, you will always have major issues discussing Thai politics there. For starters, that forum is based in Thailand, so discussion of the Royal Family and judicial decisions are not only against that forum's rules, but against Thai law thus leaving that forum open to prosecution if stated discussions occur.

For seconds, there is a long history of anti-Thaksin forum moderation on that forum (no bad thing imo) which eventually mutated into a very pro-Demo editorial policy (bad thing imo).

And for thirds, that forum is hopelessly infested with political propagandists from both sides of the divide, though the editorial policy tends to indulge the pro-Demo propagandists somewhat.

The Pro

05-25-10, 05:39

Barko

05-25-10, 12:54

There are serious problems ahead, the Thai media is attempting to ignore it to portray only the Bangkok middle class view, but by doing so they are alientating even more the poor majority.

I see new red protests in Bangkok from late June or July onwards, so perhaps enjoy a month of calm whilst the fighting moves to the politicians/lawyers domain and the spin merchants before it all starts again on the streets next month or not long after.Very strange you should mention this.

More than a week ago, I wrote an email to Thaksin Shinawatra's attorney, Mr. Robert Amsterdam, with my own version of what was to ultimately happen, and how assured negative impact and circumstance were to be placed on Thaksin Shinawatra. I included my own personal photographs of the area near Lumpini and Langsuan before the Thai military arrived on scene, and my perception of what the obvious conclusion to the "til death" rhetoric was bound to take.

I included all of the "lettuce" after my name, and my own dealings and ultimate falling out with the Thaksin family in general. (Not open for discussion.)

I advised that Mr. Armstrong should have his staff collect more information on Thaksin's dealings with (1.)media falsehoods regarding the The Pak Mun dam gate opening in the Khong Chiam District of Ubon Ratchathani to gain Isaan public support (then the secretlve re-closing), (2.)Thaksin's methodology of sanction regarding low level drug dealers that had ties with the police in Chiang Rai and Chiang Mai, over 2300 murders proven, over 4500 estimated (3.)Thaksin's corrupt and abusive use of Federal Tax revenues in building a new airport wherein the bulk massive improper funding went to Thaksin cement and construction associate's company bank accounts, (4.)Thaksin's plan to award loans to poor farmers that could not possibly be paid back, then secretly funding local village's headmen with funds to buy out the broken farmer, thereby leading to Thaksin's close friends and family ultimately gaining control of the land, (5.) Thaksin's own admission that he had paid for votes in a democratic election, and (6.) the 2006 sale of the Shinawatra family's share of Shin Corporation to Temasek Holdings Singapore, illegal and blatant income tax avoidance, therby negatively impacting his own corporate investors of $700 million USD. "Follow the money", I said.

Yesterday, I emailed another group of my own personal photographs of the negatively affected areas of Bangkok to Mr. Armstrong, five of which are included here, time-line listed as (a.): before, (b1/b2.): after, (c.): present military involvement in daily life, and (d.): the direct and rapid negative social impact on Thailand (a massage worker with no daytime customers, standing in a rainstorm under an umbrella- essentially forced into street prostitution to pay for her son's daily imminent primary school education billings.)

Also, in blaming Thaksin fully and directly for several other glaring sociopath behaviors and illegalities leading to negative impacts, in what is considered to be a full democracy, I explained that Thaksin is to be held accountable, and upon his return to Thailand, will be charged in both federal and civil court.

I received an email from an Armstrong secretary today, "the matters of substantive complaint and proof of culpability are currently under advisement". (Translated, this means = blow me, go away)

Thaksin funded the Red Shirts, the groups fractionary and violent leaders became out of Thaksin's control, and, while the non-reactionary leaders backed out, the massive amount of imminent violence on Bangkok citizenry and real estate had already been put into place, written in the cards. Thousands of sharpened bamboo pun-ji sticks in the face of Bangkok citizens was enough, the 'til death' rhetoric further compounded the political and military challenge for forced removal.

Yes, "The Pro", I agree, Thaksin will do it again. "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. " Rita Mae Brown, 'Sudden Death'.

Thaksin will be arrested on the international stage, and returned to Thailand to face criminality on more than 213 counts of illegal actions during his time as Prime Minister, and he will face charges of countless, grossly illegal and treasonous activities while funding terrorist activities inside the Kingdom of Thailand.

No spin.

Lifeingr

05-25-10, 16:40

If it's the forum I'm thinking of, you will always have major issues discussing Thai politics there. For starters, that forum is based in Thailand, so discussion of the Royal Family and judicial decisions are not only against that forum's rules, but against Thai law thus leaving that forum open to prosecution if stated discussions occur.

For seconds, there is a long history of anti-Thaksin forum moderation on that forum (no bad thing imo) which eventually mutated into a very pro-Demo editorial policy (bad thing imo).

And for thirds, that forum is hopelessly infested with political propagandists from both sides of the divide, though the editorial policy tends to indulge the pro-Demo propagandists somewhat.

Yes, you are right. The forum implied is now an arena of propaganda from both sites. Videos, photos, clippings everything in the "war". The main problem as you say it is that now the moderation is a bit "fascist" towards the direction you mention. My posts included NOTHING on the Royal Family but some senior members didn't like them; I have to admit I used strong language to criticize the censorship issue. No problem I learned some things form there.

I know you probably don't mind but today I finished my first book on Thailand's history. Well it seems that the arguments between the rural and "elite" have deep roots! I also understood that Thailand is a very very young nation-state (young relatively to the historical perspective of time) and this of course adds to the complexity. After reading the book some things make more sense to me now. Still I am not sure if I can support one of the two groups by absolute terms but I think the point is not there. It seems obvious for me that unrest and political problems in Thailand will continue to happen for decades. It is more or less part of a process to build a nation-state. Bearing in mind that it needs many centuries (if not milenia) to build strong nation-states Thailand has a lot of time in front to be a strong stable nation-state!

Terry Terrier

05-25-10, 22:06

Very... rant...rant...rant...Oh dear! One of the propagandists appears to have made it to ISG's Thai political discussions :(.

Lifeingr, just be careful about how you hold the info you are reading up on. If you are downloading it to a laptop, make sure it's thoroughly erased when you are passing through Thai customs control. They occasionally do spot-checks, and some of this stuff would get you deeply into the doo doo.

btw, large tracts of the banned book about the unsmiling sovereign that G referred to can be read online here:
http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=d75WYMdp8-0C&pg=PA452&lpg=PA452&dq=the+soteriological+state&source=bl&ots=AIp3-OHqXt&sig=-fgBztbb8whamgxQyvlgeUygTVs&hl=en&ei=7EC9SarxBYS2jAff-OSnCA&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=1&ct=result#v=onepage&q=the%20soteriological%20state&f=false

Terry Terrier

05-25-10, 22:29

After the war on the streets, now comes the "spin war".

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704792104575264131117418018.html

From what I can see and hear a lot of Bangkok people (middle class) remain firmly anti-red. However this has been the case since Songkran 2009 and with this class of people being the "noticeable" type - in that they use internet and are "polled" by the media there is no real change. These same people supported the coup in 2006 and turned a blind eye to the PAD and shutting airports.

However the poorer area's of Bangkok have been turned more pro-red, the shootings by the army of innocent civilians has alienate more people away from the Democrats/BJT coalition.

In the north and north-east there is now a very strong pro-red feeling and the movment is growing there, growing far faster than anywhere else.

There are serious problems ahead, the Thai media is attempting to ignore it to portray only the Bangkok middle class view, but by doing so they are alientating even more the poor majority.

I see new red protests in Bangkok from late June or July onwards, so perhaps enjoy a month of calm whilst the fighting moves to the politicians/lawyers domain and the spin merchants before it all starts again on the streets next month or not long after.
Yes, I fear that things are now going to get worse. And the saddest aspect is that the options for a reconciliation government are disappearing up the river. I wrote at the time that he became prime minister that Abhisit had made a huge mistake. At the time, he was one of the cleanest politicians around. If he'd waited until he was really needed he could have been a major player in a reconciliation government, even rising to the very top on merit. As it is, he jumped the gun and has been used, abused and will eventually be spat out by the Bangkok mafioso.

Fon Tok

05-25-10, 23:09

Lifeingr, just be careful about how you hold the info you are reading up on. If you are downloading it to a laptop, make sure it's thoroughly erased when you are passing through Thai customs control. They occasionally do spot-checks, and some of this stuff would get you deeply into the doo doo.
Has anyone on this board ever had their computer checked at Thai customs?

Barko

05-25-10, 23:19

Oh dear! One of the propagandists appears to have made it to ISG's Thai political discussions :(. Terry, umm, this is the Ex-Pat forum for people that live here, did you actually see any of the thousands of sharpened punji sticks pointing out from Lumpini and Langsuan? Did you actually hear any of the violent droning rhetoric blaring from the loudspeakers? Clue: It wasn't the singing of "We will overcome" and "Give peace a chance". It was, "We will die here" and "Force Abhisit out", and "We will take the streets of Bangkok one by one until Abhisit is gone forever", and "Let mine be the first blood, let them come take my blood on the street".

Sure, I knew that something bad and extremely violent was about to happen. It takes money to fund something like this, and lots of it. Yes, the money came from Thaksin Shinawatra, then twisted and molded by the likes of "Seh Daeng".

Now, where is the propaganda? You HAVE to understand that media, in and of itself, needs to sell a product. I don't, no I don't. I have no agenda. All I know is how it all effects me, my associates, and all my friends, both Thai and farang.

By the way. Were you on foot, on a motorcycle, in a car? How did you feel when YOU saw the madness on Radjadamri and Langsuan? Well, I guess you just didn't, did you?

No rant. I live here. I have many many friends on both sides of it. Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Phrae, Ubon, Udon, Loei, Korat, Surin, Phuket, Trang, Songkla, etc, etc, etc. I live it, have lived on both sides and been involved in all of it for nearly 28 years. All I can do is tell you how it makes ME feel, that's it.

You?

Barko

05-25-10, 23:30

Has anyone on this board ever had their computer checked at Thai customs?Fuck no, not ever, and I carry two laptops, 8 encrypted hardisks, 20 or so (1-32GB) flashdrives & cards, and a ton of snarly wires & hardware (everywhere I go.)

To get reamed you have to have been fingered first.

But then, I am not a kid, so WTF do I know?

BionicMan

05-26-10, 00:08

Has anyone on this board ever had their computer checked at Thai customs?
never! approx 5 times through customs in one year, but nobody ever checked anything!

NicFrenchy

05-26-10, 00:10

Has anyone on this board ever had their computer checked at Thai customs?

Never in over 100 trips overseas

Professor 1

05-26-10, 01:27

Has anyone on this board ever had their computer checked at Thai customs?

No, I have not. Only U.S. customs appears to exhibit an interest. :)

The Pro

05-26-10, 03:25

rant rant rant.What you fail to appreciate is the majority of the people of Thailand wanted him.

Also, the 2006 coup was illegal and designed to prevent proper elections being run as "they" knew Thaksin would win.

In 2005 the Demcorats and Bangkok Mafia did illegal things to ensure the elections were voided, and in 2008 after PPP won they used a judicial coup to get PPP kicked out.

Whilst Thaksn was never a saint he DID NO WORSE than those presently in power and those behind those in power who are far more corrupt than Thaksin ever was.

This is where the "Its all Thaksin" argument falls down. He was corrupt, but not as corrupt as those still in the country and pulling the stings behind the scenes.

The people chose Thaksin because whilst he was corrupt, at least he gave them something.

This is why the country is in turmoil as the people want democracy and to be allowed to have something, whereas the ruling Elite want "normalcy" to return where the Elite get everything and the poor get nothing.

If the people want to vote in someone like Thaksin who they see as "less corrupt" than the other choices, then what is the problem? All your ranting over Thaksin ignores those who are more corrupt than him who are presently pulling the strings behind the scened and control the power/government.

This is not about Thaksin, its about the people wanting to kick out the old Yellow Elite, and if they need someone like Thaksin to help do it, they will use him.

Have you ever considered rather than Thaksin using the people, the people have found someone they can use to push their cause. Its the opposite of what the Thai media spins, but its more in line with actual reality, they are using him, he is using them and both are content.

The Pro

05-26-10, 07:46

A worrying article.

http://thaipoliticalprisoners.wordpress.com/2010/05/25/the-witch-hunt-is%C2%A0on/

Can they not understand it is only a liar who needs to control informaiton to protect the lies.

The truth sets everyone free. So many lies have been created and told since the coup in 2006 in order to disgrace and kick people out of power that the whole mass of lies is now teetering on collapse, and more and more people are shaking the ground.

The massive censorship and blocking can mean only one thing in the eyes of the world, and that is Thailand is now taken over by a junta. The shooting of civilians confirmed the "junta" control of Thailand to many people.

The Pro

05-26-10, 07:58

Even Chula academics calling for a return to freedom of expression.

That rather proves the point that presently things are out of hand and the government are censoring, banning, arresting, imprisoning anything and everything that poses a threat to the lies they have perpetuated.

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/05/25/chula-academics-call-for-return-of-justice-and-academic-freedom/

Most worrying. I would strongly suggest anyone in Thailand avoid all disucssion of Thai politics with any Thai's.

I had a chat recently with a Thai Bangkok middle class man (BMCM), he brought it up.

It went like this :

BMCM - The reds are very bad.

Me - Yes but they were frustrated that their protest was stopped by the military and civilians were shot by army snipers.

BMCM - But the riots were very bad, they damaged many buildings.

Me - Yes but many reds were shot dead, innocent civilians.

BMCM - Yes but the riots were terrible, very bad people.

Me - Yes, but many were shot dead by the army BEFORE that.

BMCM - But its all Thaksin's fault.

Me - Thought you might mention him, he was bad but the present people are far worse, they held a coup in 2006 just before elections, they have imposed many double standards.

BMCM - But its all Thaksins fault, he is to blame.

Me - Yes, he was not a good man, but the Elite are abusing all the systems, coups, military rule, killing civilians, fixing judiciary, censoring and blocking

BMCM - But its Thaksins fault, everything.

Me - Hold on, the army shot civilians

BMCM - But they rioted, it was very bad, many buildings burnt, its all Thaksin faults.

Me - Hang on, they were shot before the riots

BMCM - But its all Thaksins fault

At this point I just give up - far too much brainwashing and censorship in Thailand now, the Bangkok middle class people have their heads so far up their own arses its quite pathetic.

Oldian

05-26-10, 08:55

After the war on the streets, now comes the "spin war".

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704792104575264131117418018.html

From what I can see and hear a lot of Bangkok people (middle class) remain firmly anti-red. However this has been the case since Songkran 2009 and with this class of people being the "noticeable" type - in that they use internet and are "polled" by the media there is no real change. These same people supported the coup in 2006 and turned a blind eye to the PAD and shutting airports.

However the poorer area's of Bangkok have been turned more pro-red, the shootings by the army of innocent civilians has alienate more people away from the Democrats/BJT coalition.

In the north and north-east there is now a very strong pro-red feeling and the movment is growing there, growing far faster than anywhere else.

There are serious problems ahead, the Thai media is attempting to ignore it to portray only the Bangkok middle class view, but by doing so they are alientating even more the poor majority.

I see new red protests in Bangkok from late June or July onwards, so perhaps enjoy a month of calm whilst the fighting moves to the politicians/lawyers domain and the spin merchants before it all starts again on the streets next month or not long after.Talking to a lot of the girls, I get a very different opinion. Many many of them say that their families used to be Red but have been disgusted by what has happened and no longer want anything to do with them. Most now see how totally paralyzed the tourist industry has become and are angry with the Reds for creating this. And then, I have even had girls that tell me that their father or mother was Red and that they weren't and this caused major disagreements in the family, but now mom and dad have ceased support after seeing what the mob did to Bangkok. I'm not so sure the Red majority up north is that.

Barko

05-26-10, 11:56

What you fail to appreciate is the majority of the people of Thailand wanted him.

Also, the 2006 coup was illegal and designed to prevent proper elections being run as "they" knew Thaksin would win.

In 2005 the Demcorats and Bangkok Mafia did illegal things to ensure the elections were voided, and in 2008 after PPP won they used a judicial coup to get PPP kicked out.

Whilst Thaksn was never a saint he DID NO WORSE than those presently in power and those behind those in power who are far more corrupt than Thaksin ever was.

This is where the "Its all Thaksin" argument falls down. He was corrupt, but not as corrupt as those still in the country and pulling the stings behind the scenes.

The people chose Thaksin because whilst he was corrupt, at least he gave them something.

This is why the country is in turmoil as the people want democracy and to be allowed to have something, whereas the ruling Elite want "normalcy" to return where the Elite get everything and the poor get nothing.

If the people want to vote in someone like Thaksin who they see as "less corrupt" than the other choices, then what is the problem? All your ranting over Thaksin ignores those who are more corrupt than him who are presently pulling the strings behind the scened and control the power/government.

This is not about Thaksin, its about the people wanting to kick out the old Yellow Elite, and if they need someone like Thaksin to help do it, they will use him.

Have you ever considered rather than Thaksin using the people, the people have found someone they can use to push their cause. Its the opposite of what the Thai media spins, but its more in line with actual reality, they are using him, he is using them and both are content.Good lord. You have got to be shitting me. Flame bait. You need to get out in the real world more.

I've been here since Prem Tinsulanonda was in office. Seen them come and go, watched Thaksin Shinawatra fail in business time after time in Chiang Mai. (I lived in Chiang Mai for over 20 years, owned a home not far from Thaksin's father's house in San Khampaeng.) I've been to funerals with the guy and his entire family, (it's THE way shit gets done here BTW, not in some glitzy office. ) My girlfriend's father was tight with all of them, funded parties and vote buying, kept the Shins close, including aunts & uncles, brothers in law, etc. You virtually had to be around them if you wanted to make something of your life in Chiang Mai. I watched and listened while they sat in rows on special VIP couches in the Wats, making deals, (deal after deal,) backstabbing friends, dissing neighbors, playing "Let's fuck-em up and take all their money" games. Thaksin is no different than a common ex-cop turned mafiosi asshole.

History: Thaksin's family was rich, he was a very rich spoiled rotten kid, and, he was a total absolute fuck up. From the Silk company Ponzi scheme, to the ICSI computer ripoff in '82, to the sanctioning of small drug dealers in Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai, to the the blackwater deals with the new airport, etc, etc, etc. Thaksin knew how to screw shit up, he never had to deal with what happened afterwards. Again, he was a very spoiled rich bratty ass wipe kid.

You still believe that he is better than the rest of them?

At risk of somebody realizing who I am: I'll admit I knew one of the tree sniper police in Chiang Mai, he was a nice guy, came to visit me when I was in the hospital, he hated his job, but was proud to be of service. Black skin tight shirt, camouflage pants, Honda Phantom (sound familiar?) He told me stories that shook me to the bone. Also, I was witness to a federally sanctioned killing in the main market in Chiang Rai... a man shot by a pillion rider on motorbike, small caliber hand gun, belly, chest, then head between the eyes, it happened right in front of me. And, it happened the same way thousands of times in Northern Thailand. No arrest, no court, no nothing. When it happens, and you see it, and you see the man fall, you smell his blood, you hear his daughters scream, you tend to get an attitude about the person that called for it. Thaksin is a murdering crook. Not to let any cats of the the bag, but my guess is he also ordered the hit on 'Seh Daeng' as well, the man was talking way too much, a stupid blurt, and if you heard what he was saying in the minutes before he was hit, then you knew surely it was time to turn him into gray flying Wat dust.

While he is no Pol Pot, Thaksin is most certainly a criminal of the first water.

And, no, you are absolutely wrong, most of the country does NOT support Thaksin, not even remotely, not any more. There is a huge middle class now, they aren't rich, they just get by, they all hate Thaksin like the devil incarnate. And they all know how much he pays for a vote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5K6bGlnirgk

You really do need to get out more, live here a couple more decades, get your nose out of red shirt butt-holes (and get your facts straight.)

While I wish I could change things here, I can't really, but I can try to do what I can to educate the totally ignorant. I read, associate, stay involved, and I write. Again, the standard norm IQ of north eastern Thailand is 86, by & large they can't read more than a 4th grade level, and they live in a world of delightfully retarded rumor and superstition. Don't be one of them.

LittleBigMan

05-26-10, 12:31

Terry Terrier

05-26-10, 23:26

Good lord. You have got to be shitting me. Flame bait. You need to get out in the real world more.

I've been here since Prem Tinsulanonda was in office. Seen them come and go, watched Thaksin Shinawatra fail in business time after time in Chiang Mai. (I lived in Chiang Mai for over 20 years, owned a home not far from Thaksin's father's house in San Khampaeng.) I've been to funerals with the guy and his entire family, (it's THE way shit gets done here BTW, not in some glitzy office. ) My girlfriend's father was tight with all of them, funded parties and vote buying, kept the Shins close, including aunts & uncles, brothers in law, etc. You virtually had to be around them if you wanted to make something of your life in Chiang Mai. I watched and listened while they sat in rows on special VIP couches in the Wats, making deals, (deal after deal,) backstabbing friends, dissing neighbors, playing "Let's fuck-em up and take all their money" games. Thaksin is no different than a common ex-cop turned mafiosi asshole.

History: Thaksin's family was rich, he was a very rich spoiled rotten kid, and, he was a total absolute fuck up. From the Silk company Ponzi scheme, to the ICSI computer ripoff in '82, to the sanctioning of small drug dealers in Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai, to the the blackwater deals with the new airport, etc, etc, etc. Thaksin knew how to screw shit up, he never had to deal with what happened afterwards. Again, he was a very spoiled rich bratty ass wipe kid.

You still believe that he is better than the rest of them?

At risk of somebody realizing who I am: I'll admit I knew one of the tree sniper police in Chiang Mai, he was a nice guy, came to visit me when I was in the hospital, he hated his job, but was proud to be of service. Black skin tight shirt, camouflage pants, Honda Phantom (sound familiar?) He told me stories that shook me to the bone. Also, I was witness to a federally sanctioned killing in the main market in Chiang Rai... a man shot by a pillion rider on motorbike, small caliber hand gun, belly, chest, then head between the eyes, it happened right in front of me. And, it happened the same way thousands of times in Northern Thailand. No arrest, no court, no nothing. When it happens, and you see it, and you see the man fall, you smell his blood, you hear his daughters scream, you tend to get an attitude about the person that called for it. Thaksin is a murdering crook. Not to let any cats of the the bag, but my guess is he also ordered the hit on 'Seh Daeng' as well, the man was talking way too much, a stupid blurt, and if you heard what he was saying in the minutes before he was hit, then you knew surely it was time to turn him into gray flying Wat dust.

While he is no Pol Pot, Thaksin is most certainly a criminal of the first water.

And, no, you are absolutely wrong, most of the country does NOT support Thaksin, not even remotely, not any more. There is a huge middle class now, they aren't rich, they just get by, they all hate Thaksin like the devil incarnate. And they all know how much he pays for a vote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5K6bGlnirgk

You really do need to get out more, live here a couple more decades, get your nose out of red shirt butt-holes (and get your facts straight.)

While I wish I could change things here, I can't really, but I can try to do what I can to educate the totally ignorant. I read, associate, stay involved, and I write. Again, the standard norm IQ of north eastern Thailand is 86, by & large they can't read more than a 4th grade level, and they live in a world of delightfully retarded rumor and superstition. Don't be one of them.
I don't dispute that Thaksin is a first-order scumbag. In fact, I've always opined that he is. But where propagandists like you fall on their arses is where you try to make him the Devil Incarnate of Thailand's politics. He isn't: He's just one of many utterly repugnant major players from the various factions. And the problem with propagandists like you (I bet you post on that visa forum in the same mode, where it's full of your type of one-sided bullshit) is that you blithely ignore the scumbags opposed to Thaksin as if their rivalry to him for control of the money trough makes them somehow better than him.

The Pro

05-27-10, 00:07

Barko

05-27-10, 12:30

I don't dispute that Thaksin is a first-order scumbag. In fact, I've always opined that he is. But where propagandists like you fall on their arses is where you try to make him the Devil Incarnate of Thailand's politics. He isn't: He's just one of many utterly repugnant major players from the various factions. And the problem with propagandists like you (I bet you post on that visa forum in the same mode, where it's full of your type of one-sided bullshit) is that you blithely ignore the scumbags opposed to Thaksin as if their rivalry to him for control of the money trough makes them somehow better than him.Nope, I don't post anywhere else but here. The Kingdom of Thailand has made me money, not a fortune, I make far more money in other countries, but I've been around here long enough to know who turns the gears, who's face is on the money, and who is a murderous thug trying his best to be the Hitler of Asia. Clue: It isn't Abhisit. (I stopped waiting for Thaksin's "Mein Kampf" a long time ago, the guy is too stupid.)

Did you know that while Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra literally GAVE the Junta government of Burma 4 billion Baht of Thai federal tax money to buy broadband Internet bandwith and equipment from Shin Corp and Shin Satellite? Nah, bet you didn't. No other Prime Minister in the history of Thailand, before or after, has had the sheer audacity, the manifested self corruptness, to pull something on that level. Not ever.

Do some homework please please please! OK guys?

Thaksin's biggest mistake, he didn't memorize the stories of "Sri Thanonchai" when he was a kid (like every other little boy in Thailand.) Oh, you don't know who that is? Google it smart boys. If you don't know who that character represents in Thai life, you haven't lived here long enough to know shit. Obviously.

I have to suffer the mud of Thailand's up and downs (and all arounds.) And I have had to suffer the consequences of that corrupt fucking bastard, and his lying, thieving, two faced, murderous Thaksin government. You obviously didn't, and you don't. You don't really play the game here to make any real money do you? Now do you?

And I don't want to hear any crap from girlie bar owners, little dicks living off their gramma's inheritance, and no dudes that have been here for a couple of years on and off and think they know something about the country. Fuck that.

So let me ask you? Do you tend to get an attitude when you've been lied to and ripped off, yes you do, don't you? OK, so now, do we all just smile and let Thaksin lie, and cheat, and allow more of his devil may care funding of violent protest just so he can get his psychoHitleresque power and his fucking money back? Most of which was corrupt in the first place? Good Lord! Never. Not ever.

There has never ever been anyone so horribly wrong for the Kingdom of Thailand, never, not ever. Of course the focus is on Thaksin, the guy has done so many illegal and selfish deeds, he thinks he is God. Too much mercury in his drinking water when he was a kid perhaps, who knows? Whatever, the only place where he belongs now is in front of a firing squad.

The guy left a trail of wrongness that no other Thai government has ever come close to. Again, please do some homework on cause an effect. And then, live here almost 30 years.

That's it. No propaganda required.

The Pro

05-27-10, 13:21

http://thaipoliticalprisoners.wordpress.com/

May 27, 2010

NHRC to support red shirt prosecutions

Ji Ungpakorn writes about the National Human Rights Commission, a group PPT has provided critical commentary on in the past.

Ji states that “Police General Wanchai Srinuannat Chairperson of the Thai National Human Rights Commission committee on Rights in the Justice System, has urged the public to make complaints to the NHRC about being affected by the Red Shirt protests in Bangkok. The NHRC will then bring prosecutions against the UDD.”

If this is accurate, this is a remarkable statement by the Police General. Thaksin Shinawatra was rightly criticized for his attempts to control independent agencies. Now the military-backed Abhisit Vejjajiva government seems to have “independent” agencies working directly for it. Where is the criticism from human rights advocates?

Ji points out the corruption of the NHRC: “Over 88 people have been killed in the last two months because Abhisit’s Government and the Military sent tanks and snipers in to crush the Red Shirt pro-democracy demonstration. The NHRC has refused to confront the actions of the Government, whether on state violence or on the blanket censorship. The NHRC has also refused to take up the issue of lese majeste, which is used to imprison Government opponents.”

He adds that “So-called independent bodies like the NHRC were all stuffed with junta supporters after the 2006 military coup. This, together with the installation of the Democrat Party Government and PM Abhisit, are part of the expansion of power by the Military and Royalist elites. The Senate is half appointed and the Constitution was written by the Military.”

This regime has considerable support from middle class people and those who usually support independence for agencies like the NHRC. Where are they now? Supporting the government and ignoring human rights abuses.

The Pro

05-27-10, 13:25

http://thaipoliticalprisoners.wordpress.com/2010/05/27/streckfuss-on-ethnic-division/

May 27, 2010...6:01 am

Streckfuss on ethnic division

This is an important article, worth reading in full:

The Wall Street Journal, MAY 24, 2010

The Spring of Thailand’s Ethnic Discontent

By DAVID STRECKFUSS

Khon Kaen, Thailand

As the leaders of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (the “red shirts”) in central Bangkok ended their 79-day protest and surrendered themselves to authorities on May 19, Thailand literally went up in flames. For the rest of that day, roving bands of angry red-shirt protesters torched dozens of buildings in Bangkok. The governor of Bangkok proclaimed that May 19 would forever be remembered by its inhabitants.

Yet while much of the international focus has been on the situation in Bangkok—where indeed the protests have been largest and the violence most severe—it is now clear the disaffection has spread. In provinces through the North and Northeast, furious red-shirt mobs put to flame provincial halls and other offices and businesses perceived as sympathetic to the government. In this city of 200,000 situated 450 kilometers from Bangkok, red shirts pushed back police to set fire to the provincial hall and the government television station that they say distorted the news about their struggle, and broke windows of the bank they say funded the forces that have left more than 70 of them dead since April 10.

The pressing question for Thailand’s future now is whether the Bangkok elites who support the current government and oppose the red shirts will take the trouble to understand why disaffection is spreading.

The truth is that these protests have tapped into a long-simmering brew of ethnic and economic tensions bubbling below the surface of Thai society. It is often said there are two Thailands: Bangkok and the rest.

After a century of the capital’s political and military incursions into the hinterland, the red-shirt demonstration represented the most serious and sustained foray of the hinterland into Bangkok.

Bangkok truly isn’t like the rest of the country. A century ago saw the rather haphazard initial construction of a nationalist model based on smothering local languages, cultures and ethnic identity under a Western colonial-inspired centralized Thai state. In both the North and Northeast, rebellions against Thai state incursions were promptly suppressed. Ethnically, the people of the North and Northeast are Lao and originally spoke dialects of Lao. Yet under the new nationalism they were suddenly “Thai” and spoke a local “Thai dialect.” Even after a century of mixing with central Thai, it may not be too much of an exaggeration to say that a majority of people now living in Thailand speak a Lao dialect in their homes.

An emerging regionalism was crushed by military governments in the 1950s. In the early 1960s, the military dictatorship of Field Marshal Sarit Thanarat perfected the model of Thai-ness, defined by praise of hierarchy and the unified Thai race, the centrality of the monarchy and “Thai-style democracy.” A threat of greater democratization and political liberalization was cut short by a bloody coup in 1976.

It was only with the “People’s Constitution” of 1997 that sovereignty decisively shifted into the hands of the Thai people through a fully elected House of Representatives and Senate. The constitution recognized local community and cultural rights and promised greater decentralization. Now there was a mechanism for addressing regional inequalities. Poor people were suddenly enfranchised more than ever before in Thai history. A majority in the North and Northeast regions, supplemented by poorer classes in urban areas, could, if unfettered, play the deciding role in representative democracy.

This has set the stage for this year’s protests. Bangkok elites have laid the blame with the populist former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a billionaire whose government promoted essentially free health care, debt aid to farmers and rural economic development. But Mr. Thaksin didn’t create the forces that are now roiling Thailand. He was simply more adept than earlier politicians at understanding how to appeal to voters outside Bangkok. His political genius was to tap into the demand this enfranchisement created in rural areas for a greater voice in Thai government.

Rather than adjusting to the new political realities, Mr. Thaksin’s detractors fell back on complaints (some justified, some not) that he bought votes, undermined democratic institutions, committed massive human rights violations and used his office for personal gain. The forces of conservatism, as represented by the pro-monarchy, old-establishment People’s Alliance for Democracy, or “yellow shirts,” regrouped and supported the 2006 military coup that threw Mr. Thaksin out of power after months of demonstrations.

The ensuing 2007 military-inspired constitution limited popular sovereignty through a half-appointed Senate, new electoral rules and a greatly expanded role of the judiciary. From 2006 to 2008, Thai courts nullified one election that Mr. Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai party won; dissolved Thaksin-backed parties twice and banned 220 0f their executive members from political office for five years; and removed one prime minister—Samak Sundaravej—for taking a small remuneration for hosting a television cooking show.

At the same time, a court order seemed to condone the yellow shirts’ months-long occupation of the Government House, and the justice system has yet to bring yellow-shirt leaders to trial on “terrorism” charges for seizing Bangkok’s international airport in late 2008. The suspects—including Thailand’s present Minister of Foreign Affairs—were given bail. In contrast, following the recent protests in Bangkok the red shirts as a whole are being portrayed as terrorists and enemies of the nation, and the red-shirt leaders have been denied bail.

To many people in the North and Northeast, it appears that the courts are frustrating the popular will and there is no equality before the law. This in part explains the growing rage of red-shirt protesters. Prior to the end of their protest Wednesday, red-shirt leaders in Bangkok warned that if security forces attacked them, Thailand would become divided. Malay Muslims in the South of Thailand already have been in revolt for years. Such, the red shirts said, may happen with the North and Northeast. On the national stage during the protest, speakers from the North and Northeast often spoke, sang and celebrated in their preferred tongue—not as some performance of rustic, minority Thai people, but as a purposeful expression of a frustrated political disenfranchisement.

As the protests heated up in April, some angry Bangkokians took to the streets, screaming, “Rural people, get out!” These people of Bangkok only saw what the red shirts had done to them. They did not see that much of the red rage is about what Bangkok has done to the “second class” rural people.

Whether Bangkok’s elites will recognize that fact ultimately will make the difference between a democratic Thailand with equality under the law, or the possibility of a forever-fractured Thailand.

Mr. Streckfuss is a writer based in Thailand

Terry Terrier

05-27-10, 22:50

You don't really play the game here to make any real money do you? Now do you?
I've snipped most of the above post, but the bit I've left in says far more about the poster than all the words of ranting propaganda and arrogance that I snipped. Businessmen 'playing the game' .....hmmmm. What's the threshold below which the game is acceptable and above which it's unacceptable? Is it a financial limit? Does corruption have ethics of any worth? :rolleyes:

Terry Terrier

05-28-10, 00:02

http://thaipoliticalprisoners.wordpress.com/2010/05/27/streckfuss-on-ethnic-division/

May 27, 2010...6:01 am

Streckfuss on ethnic division

This is an important article, worth reading in full:
It's a pretty good summary similar to the Economist one, but with quite a bit more detail. Right-wing farang will hate it, of course: It actually spreads the blame around and fails to blame Thaksin for all of Thailand's woes.

Barko

05-28-10, 00:23

I've snipped most of the above post, but the bit I've left in says far more about the poster than all the words of ranting propaganda and arrogance that I snipped. Businessmen 'playing the game' .....hmmmm. What's the threshold below which the game is acceptable and above which it's unacceptable. Is it a financial limit? Does corruption have ethics of any worth? :rolleyes:You are too funny, how old are you?

Somebody had better teach you the ropes here guy, real quick.

Read the post again, and if you really are here, I got some bad news for you, we aren't in Kansas anymore Toto.

Where the fuck are you, really? It can't be Thailand! You know, the hot steamy weird place with all the fucked up streets, stinky food, dirty unfit water, crooked cops, politicians on the take, dangerous snakes, rusty old M-16s, thousands of stolen motorcycles, and millions & millions of prostitutes? How in the world do you survive here? (A 1st year elementary school English teacher with a big Kansas ego perhaps?)

Pull your socks up, it's a rough place: Thailand. Well, I know, better idea, just move out of the way and let the big dogs run away with your shoes again.

Thailand IS corrupt, top to bottom, back door to front door. You learn how to play, or just go away. Deal with it. Build a house, buy a car, get a wife, get a life. Report back when you do. Getting things done in Thailand is a far throw from what it's like, in say, Kansas.

The stuff I post isn't propaganda, it's all documented, black and white, proven, static, known. Stop calling it propaganda, especially if you aren't sure what the word means. The guy got busted dead to rights on many many counts; not accusations, not libelous finger pointing, and not propaganda. Remember, it only took one count of income tax evasion to get Al Capone.

Let me ask you. Did you happen to see the big red "Shinawatra Thaksin, The Leader of New Thailand" stickers on Sathorn Road and Soi Convent? Talk about treasonous, hmm? They were in Thai, so maybe not. Now, you are going to say that they were put there by Abhisit, aren't you?

History is written by the winners bud, it's nasty, but it's been that way for 12, 000 years of human civilization. Is all of history "propaganda"? No it isn't. History is going to condemn Thaksin Shinawatra as a perfect model of what not to be as a Prime Minister. He is not just somebody's whipping boy, he is a proven criminal, no propaganda. It is NOT politics, the guy IS a scumbag crook, and just fucked over too many people. Period.

Time to get on the right side guy. Don't be a cry baby. It's not your fault, it's not my fault, it's Thaksin Shinawatra's own fault. He overplayed it, as he always has, and he blew it. Big time. Now he gets the big time smack down for big time fuckups: Prison. (And no, for crap's sake, he isn't Aung San Suu Kyi.)

This has absolute zero to do with "propaganda".

Giotto

05-28-10, 16:47

Heavy stuff, questionable, but worth to be read:

http://atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/LE29Ae02.html

Giotto

05-28-10, 17:13

About the problem of information:

http://www.atlanticfreepress.com/news/1-/13270-western-mass-media-perverts-information-about-thailand-discredited-and-servile.html

Lifeingr

05-28-10, 18:23

http://thaipoliticalprisoners.wordpress.com/2010/05/27/streckfuss-on-ethnic-division/

Sorry guys but how you access these articles? The site is blocked and not even proxify is working. Any hint?

Khop khun khap

Giotto

05-28-10, 19:02

It's a pretty good summary similar to the Economist one, but with quite a bit more detail. Right-wing farang will hate it, of course: It actually spreads the blame around and fails to blame Thaksin for all of Thailand's woes.LOL,

I like the inverse all.

Giotto

Giotto

05-28-10, 19:05

Sorry guys but how you access these articles? The site is blocked and not even proxify is working. Any hint?

Khop khun khapLifeingr,

I think the text was visible below in The Pro's report.

I can easily access it, ISP Loxinfo. No proxi.

Giotto

Terry Terrier

05-29-10, 00:40

You are too funny, how old are you?

Somebody had better teach you the ropes here guy, real quick.

Read the post again, and if you really are here, I got some bad news for you, we aren't in Kansas anymore Toto.

Where the fuck are you, really? It can't be Thailand! You know, the hot steamy weird place with all the fucked up streets, stinky food, dirty unfit water, crooked cops, politicians on the take, dangerous snakes, rusty old M-16s, thousands of stolen motorcycles, and millions & millions of prostitutes? How in the world do you survive here? (A 1st year elementary school English teacher with a big Kansas ego perhaps?)

Pull your socks up, it's a rough place: Thailand. Well, I know, better idea, just move out of the way and let the big dogs run away with your shoes again.

Thailand IS corrupt, top to bottom, back door to front door. You learn how to play, or just go away. Deal with it. Build a house, buy a car, get a wife, get a life. Report back when you do. Getting things done in Thailand is a far throw from what it's like, in say, Kansas.

The stuff I post isn't propaganda, it's all documented, black and white, proven, static, known. Stop calling it propaganda, especially if you aren't sure what the word means. The guy got busted dead to rights on many many counts; not accusations, not libelous finger pointing, and not propaganda. Remember, it only took one count of income tax evasion to get Al Capone.

Let me ask you. Did you happen to see the big red "Shinawatra Thaksin, The Leader of New Thailand" stickers on Sathorn Road and Soi Convent? Talk about treasonous, hmm? They were in Thai, so maybe not. Now, you are going to say that they were put there by Abhisit, aren't you?

History is written by the winners bud, it's nasty, but it's been that way for 12, 000 years of human civilization. Is all of history "propaganda"? No it isn't. History is going to condemn Thaksin Shinawatra as a perfect model of what not to be as a Prime Minister. He is not just somebody's whipping boy, he is a proven criminal, no propaganda. It is NOT politics, the guy IS a scumbag crook, and just fucked over too many people. Period.

Time to get on the right side guy. Don't be a cry baby. It's not your fault, it's not my fault, it's Thaksin Shinawatra's own fault. He overplayed it, as he always has, and he blew it. Big time. Now he gets the big time smack down for big time fuckups: Prison. (And no, for crap's sake, he isn't Aung San Suu Kyi.)

This has absolute zero to do with "propaganda".
I'm going to leave this quote in it's full 'glory'. The poster started to move slightly away from the 'everything is Thaksin's fault' ranting to conceding that corruption is endemic in Thailand, and (again) obliquely conceding that he (the poster) is a corrupt businessman in Thailand.

But he then proceeded to his usual monotone of Thaksin's corruption being the 'wrong type' of corruption and then reverted back to full bullshit propagandist mode.

Anybody thinking that this was ever about rooting out corruption is sadly wrong. It should have been, and it was a golden opportunity for it to be. But it isn't. And the quoted post shows us why the opportunity was never on any of the current major players' agenda.

Terry Terrier

05-29-10, 01:11

G,

I found both of those articles to be poor quality journalism by minor outlets. But thanks for providing them anyway.

Giotto

05-29-10, 05:44

G,

I found both of those articles to be poor quality journalism by minor outlets. ...TT,

Correct, no question about that.

I posted the links because I think that the readers here anyway find all the standard articles in NYT, FT, HT, Economist etc. etc. themselves. I thought this two pieces would provide some nice reasons for any side to start a discussion :) .

Giotto

Giotto

05-29-10, 05:52

...
Time to get on the right side guy.
...Barko,

Whilst I don't have many problems with your judgement about Thaksin I have difficulties to see any "right side". Do you talk about the side who ordered the use of the armed forces against the own people?

Giotto

Barko

05-29-10, 07:13

Heavy stuff, questionable, but worth to be read:

http://atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/LE29Ae02.htmlQuestionable?

Thank you Giotto. Finally, a boots on pavement report. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

Good grief, in the way you guys talk, I thought you were actually there. Please, stop pretending you know anything.

How many of you saw the English language banners on the stage with your own eyes, but then heard in Thai what the speakers were SAYING on the stage with your own ears, then felt the violence in the tens of thousands of punji sticks menacing your own face?

Now, for SOME stupid reason, for the guys that actually live here, I thought that a lot of you here had experienced the same damn thing there at Lumpini! Man, I guess fucking NOT. Jeez, where the fuck were you? This was important stuff! Well, now I know better, you just weren't there at all! Therefore, apparently, you are for the most part yapping here without a motherfucking clue. Barking at the moon?

Seriously, it was an absolutely disgusting abuse of falsifying reality and creating an impression of a soft peaceful class vs class demonstration, (and of course a perfect idealistic blanket of understanding for the western psyche.)

"Somebody call the UN! Look what they are doing to us! " Right. Look, it's the "same ol' same ol'" Thaksin stupid bullshit: the bait, the setup, the switch, and finally, the "prestige", the basis for all magic tricks. (All while his black shirt buddies on the sidelines are grinning ear to ear with their Sang Som "quat lek" bottles in their dirty gun hands. Good work!) And you guys fell for it, hook, line and sinker.

To anyone posting on this panel, I would firmly suggest that you please read that AsiaTimes report. Reality. Reality, reality, reality.

Now get it. Now face it. Thaksin: Money + Control + Loss of control + Loss of money = Attempt to regain control and money at any cost using his same old tried and true methods. Does it take a brain surgeon here people?

Reality. Nothing to do with class vs class whatsoever.

The Pro

05-29-10, 07:34

Sorry guys but how you access these articles? The site is blocked and not even proxify is working. Any hint?

Khop khun khapChina has the "Great Firewall" and now Thailand has the "Yellow Firewall". I hear today that they are now trying to block access to Thaksin's website for all Thai people.

Anyway.

To get around it.

Go to Google Translate

http://translate.google.com

Put the web page you want to go to in the box. Then select "Thai to English" (yes even though the original is not Thai do not worry)

Then click translate.

The web page should come up running inside the Google Translate page.

This should get you around the "Yellow Firewall" of Thailand to most banned web sites which I beleive is running at hundreds of thousands now. Thats the trouble team Yellow have now, the more lies you tell the more effort is needed to prevent the truth leaking out.

Barko

05-29-10, 08:07

Barko,

Whilst I don't have many problems with your judgement about Thaksin I have difficulties to see any "right side". Do you talk about the side who ordered the use of the armed forces against the own people?

GiottoGood point. No no I did not mean it that way at all. Poor word discipline, no excuse.

In terms of "right side", I meant stepping over to the view of non-ignorance. (Every sitting judge's favorite expression world wide, said with clarity and gusto: "Ignorance, sir/madam, is NO excuse".)

I feel that 99% of the red shirts are simply pawns in something they know nothing about. I mean really, did you see all those old ladies with their grandkids, their knitting, their nimble little fans waving, and all that sum tum? Perfect!

I am firmly in the circle of understanding that the certainty of violence at Radjadmri/Lumpini was orchestrated by Thaksin, and that the outcome was the obvious conclusion. I think it was finally driven home when they starting doing that "Taking Bangkok street by street" and "I will die here" thing that finally did it. Abhisit (with no help from the police) had no other choice but to fall for it, therefore making him a pawn in the scheme as well.

What happened was just atrociously bad, I clearly do not agree with any of it, but, I am positively and absolutely sure that Thaksin is to blame for ALL of it.

"Right side" was the wrong way to manage the wording.

Tiger 888

05-29-10, 08:19

.....Reality. Reality, reality, reality.......
Barko, barking the same words over and over doesn't add any extra truth!

Barko

05-29-10, 09:43

Barko, barking the same words over and over doesn't add any extra truth!OK? Hmm. None you were actually there, were you? Now I am beginning to wonder if any one of you actually live here. Do you? I doubt it. (Mi scusi Giotto.)

I am reminded of the 17th century carving over the door to the stable of the Tosho-gu shrine in Nikko, Japan. Google it.

Just so you guys understand, I am a guy that leans so far to the left I can't live in the USA. I'm firmly behind finding social injustice and rooting out the causes of wrongdoing to nature and mankind. Not only with my work, my words and my actions, but with my wallet. I also give a ton of money every month to "Doctors Without Frontiers", but that's entirely beside the point. You must know, I am also a realist that has lived here in Thailand for longer than most of you have been alive. You've got one time around this whacky world, and a lot of the badness that I have seen here in Thailand I can't discuss for fear of exposing who I am. (Not self aggrandizing and not trying to be Superman anywhere but in bed, so, please.)

These black shirt guys, the ones mentioned in the fore posted Asia Times article http://www.internationalsexguide.info/forum/showpost.php?p=1025497&postcount=1378 are the same guys that whacked the drug dealers, the same guys that ran uncontrolled and illegal sniper patrols in the smuggling routes from Burma, the same guys that have fomented all of the latest orchestrated violence in Bangkok, and the same guys that have been on Thaksin's payroll for over 12 years. Got it? If you don't, then read the AT article again. Then, listen to a guy that has seen it first hand.

Stop fooling yourselves into believing that this is some sort of little class struggle, it's framed by the Thaksin's good old "spin the dupes for the for their money" machine, then pandered to by the ignorant western press, even the ones that "kinda sorta" live here. This entire thing has absolutely NOTHING TO DO WITH POOR VS RICH.

Thaksin, his TRT buddies, and their half drunken but extremely deadly thugs, (black shirt, camo pants, Honda Phantom), are the cause of all of the death and mayhem on the streets of Bangkok Thailand this last week. Period. When their blurt mouthed temporary manager, Maj Gen Khattiya Sawasdipol, "Seh Daeng", got popped, all hell broke loose. (He was starting to talk about Thaksin, and well, you know the ending. Poof, the guy talking about Thaksin is gone, how easy was that?!)

Do I have to post a timeline for all of the same type of corrupt and violent behavior that Thaksin has displayed in the past? (Seriously, understand this: Thaksin is a monster. Follow the money.) Or, can you guys be adults and educate yourselves? It isn't a Sudoku guys, it's pretty easy.

Fuck me now I wish I had recorded those all day all night droning red shirt radio shows in Si Sa Ket. At the time, I laughed at the Pied Piper, I am not laughing now. You guys seriously don't know anything here do you? Do you actually live here?

Everybody I know seems to have a handle on this, even many of the old red shirts & people I know in the North East, I can't understand why you guys can't seem to get your heads around it.

Oh wait I know, I know, try actually living here.

Fon Tok

05-29-10, 11:22

OK, everybody knows the problems and there are many, many accounts of this and that over the past few months. It makes for interesting reading, but honestly, a lot of it just covers old ground.

Moving forward, does anyone have any ideas for a strategy, plan, or set of possible solutions for what ails Thai politics? Abhisit's rather vague reconciliation plan is out there, but what are some other steps that might bring stablity to the country?

The Aceh Peace Model was mentioned previously as a possible starting point to quell the problems in the far south of Thailand. However, it was never setiously considered by the Thai government.

The UDD's issues are much different than those found in the south. Is there a similar political model from another part of the world that might gain traction in Thailand? Given that the Thais are resistant to any help for "outsiders," do you think they would ever consider "someone else's" help?

Terry Terrier

05-30-10, 00:21

Terry Terrier

05-30-10, 01:47

Barko

05-30-10, 04:13

Here is another boots on pavement report for our propagandist, ranting bro. I don't think he'll like this one though ;).

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/05/16/nick-nostitz-in-the-killing-zone/1. Ancient history, saw it when it originally posted. Emailed for comment. "In the killing zone"? Hmm, dodging a bullet for the first time is always hairy. If somebody points an automatic weapon at you from 15 meters away, and yells "Don't move" over a bullhorn, maybe you should think about what you are doing, and kinda-sorta "Don't Move". Gosh. BTW, read it again, Thais do tend to joke around A LOT. (Not saying that this was OK, not in the least, but "stupidity" plays a large part in this post.) The soldiers were scared shitless from being terrorized by the black shirts the night before. They were practically ready to shoot each other. Do a timeline.

2. All effect, no cause. Read the comments.

3. Nick Nostitz admittedly neither reads nor speaks Thai, another pawn. Yawn..

Keep 'them coming.

NicFrenchy

05-30-10, 04:24

It looks to me there are reports/articles on both sides pointing the finger at the other side. I don't think any of you can win this back and forth Argument.

Barko

05-30-10, 05:33

Here is another boots on pavement report for Brother Shouty. Maybe he'll dislike this one too?

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:S7xlTmIeKNEJ:www.prachatai.org/english/node/1852%20Reckless%20shooting%20by%20army%20officials%20during%20the%20crackdown%20on%20Red%20Shirt%20demonstrators&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnkCareful here, www.Prachatai.org(.com) helped manifest the conclusiveness (I. E. "violence") in Bangkok. I was in Si Sa Khet helping a sweetie's father out of jam a couple of months ago while this thing wound itself up to 'Pied Piper' status. They were both red shirt leaning supporters, I explained to them how it had evolved (Thaksin, follow the money, Isaan farmers screwed, blued, & tattooed, etc.) and converted them. It was easy.

Again, I saw your link when it originally published, groan, all effect, no cause. My endless ranting argument here, blaming Thaksin, is all cause, no effect. IMHO, the effect was a given.

A quick OT comment regarding prachatai.org:

Terry, I absolutely and completely agree with non-censorship, but these guys basically set themselves up to make it so easy that it's almost hilarious. Let's just say that these people are morons, and leave it there. A clever twelve year old could have done better. Or wait, hmm, maybe the idea WAS to get blocked? OK, probably not, but a hyper-political website ripping a new butthole in the current administration in times of violence, then blocked for virtually inciting more violence? Wow, there's an idea. The website is registered by a Thai, is hosted on a cheap shit wide open shared server in the USA with no backup anywhere else, and has lots of PHP syntax problems: Fucking brilliant, (not.) Hmm, methinks it has the markings of Thaksin all over it. Anybody ever hear the phrase "Domain Forwarding", guess not.

"Sri Thanonchai" this isn't.

More please.

Giotto

05-30-10, 07:51

Here is another boots on pavement report for our propagandist, ranting bro. I don't think he'll like this one though ;).

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/05/16/nick-nostitz-in-the-killing-zone/
Some more info in regards of this story:

Nick Nostitz confronted the PM with this story during the press conference on Friday. He was then told to present his case to the investigation comittee.

"If you have that please submit [it] to the investigating committee. You're welcome to provide the testimony," the PM said.

Info about the press conference here, quite astonishing piece again from The Nation:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/05/30/politics/Scepticism-remains-over-governments-ability-to-ach-30130474.html

Then please read comment No. 68 on New Mandala (link above), from Nick Nostitz, about him meeting the MiBs ("Men in Black").

Thanks for the nice comments.
To be honest, this thing has shaken me up considerably, and i have taken off the day, doing nothing but picking up my motorcycle, which fortunately was still OK.
This article is the result of me having made a wrong call yesterday. I Thought the situation would develop like the two days before at Rama IV / Wireless intersection (where i photographed the protester who was shot in the head by the military), and the following afternoon at Wireless Road at Lumphini Police station (where Nelson Rand, the Matichon photographer and several protesters were shot – by the military as well). In both those incidents one could still work relatively safely when staying in cover. Military then shot only when protesters made moves towards them, and did not move themselves.
This one though turned out quite different – a barrage of shot carefully aimed at anything that moved (especially the group of protesters in front of me).

Unfortunately my wife had to see me on Thai television running from the soldiers shooting at me while i was still stuck in the house – one of the channels had some coverage of this, somehow.

This was a most terrifying experience. Presently i am far more scared of the soldiers than of the “Guys in Black” (yes – they are existing) who i had a brief encounter with the night before. One of them asked me politely not to take any images of him, and then walked off into no man’s land, a grenade launcher hidden under his jacket, not too long after followed by automatic rifle fire and several grenade blasts into the direction of the military. I am not condoning what they are doing, but as the situation is right now, i believe we have to begin to readjust our analyzes of the situation, and also on safety.

Ideological or political convictions aside (they don’t really matter while trying to cover this mess on the ground) – while working, we have to think about who is targeting us, and who is not likely to target us. So far, the military has not given me much reason to feel safe, especially their use of snipers on many of the high rises and bridges. But this is just my personal experience – others may feel different.

This story is also a strong warning on anyone covering this now, how quickly things may get out of hand. I have to think very hard on how, and if i keep covering this mess as working somewhat safely as a journalist is almost impossible now, which i learned the hard way.

And by the way, if anybody has or can get some information on the guy with the gut shot, if he possibly made it, and if – in which hospital he is, in that case – i would be very grateful. I am quite haunted by the terrible suffering he had to endure, and which i could not make any easier.

Giotto

05-30-10, 08:14

Important article ????:

http://atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/LE29Ae02.html

Due to the fact that I posted this article here first (meant to be provocative) here my take on it:

The writing style is already questionable. The article gives at the beginning the impression that we get an action report - the writer met the "Ronin Fighter", he was not allowed to take pictures, otherwise they would kill him - wow, that sounds dangerous, and the reader expects sensations. And then?

The writer jumps to Seh Daeng, writes stories everybody knows already, more about Seh Daeng and Thaksin than about the acitivites of the fighers - then there obviously is not much he can write about in regards of the fighters.

27 fighter, a tend - where? The fighters leave for 9 hours - no, he does not join them, he stays in the tend. For that - everything he writes about what happened in this 9 hours is nothing more than hearsay. He was not with them.

The fighter return, "to the cheers of the assembled reds". Very unprofessional, everybody obviously knows who they are. If they were real professional underground fighters they would hide, work in smaller groups, and nobody would know where the stay, nobody would cheer when they return to their camp. Looks to me like a group of young troublemaker - if at all.

Neither the article nor the content of it is impressive. Bad journalism.

Giotto

05-30-10, 14:45

Another overview:

http://www.fpif.org/articles/the_battle_for_thailand

Terry Terrier

05-30-10, 22:42

<snip>Nick Nostitz admittedly neither reads nor speaks Thai, another pawn. Yawn..

Keep 'them coming.
Not yet. We first need to get to the bottom of why you are writing lies about Nick Nostitz, who is by a long way the most 'boots on the pavement' photographer and journalist in Thailand covering the current political troubles.

Your propagandist attempts to shoot the messenger won't cut it on this forum. Try the visa forum. They tend to enjoy swilling around in that type of horseshit over there :D.

Here is another ancient (from January this year) piece, a rather good interview with Nick which gives a lot of insights to his personal history in Thailand, his arrival at 'where he is', his modus operandi, and more:

http://absolutelybangkok.com/nick-nostitz-photographer-documentarian-communicator/

It's worth reading down through the comments, where both the interviewer and Nick took the time to reply and expand.

Terry Terrier

05-30-10, 23:20

Another overview:

http://www.fpif.org/articles/the_battle_for_thailand

This is an interesting article. There is a lot of uncorroborated stuff in it, but it does provoke a few thoughts.

Terry Terrier

05-30-10, 23:48

OK? Hmm. None you were actually there, were you? Now I am beginning to wonder if any one of you actually live here. Do you? I doubt it. (Mi scusi Giotto.)

I am reminded of the 17th century carving over the door to the stable of the Tosho-gu shrine in Nikko, Japan. Google it.

Just so you guys understand, I am a guy that leans so far to the left I can't live in the USA. I'm firmly behind finding social injustice and rooting out the causes of wrongdoing to nature and mankind. Not only with my work, my words and my actions, but with my wallet. I also give a ton of money every month to "Doctors Without Frontiers", but that's entirely beside the point. You must know, I am also a realist that has lived here in Thailand for longer than most of you have been alive. You've got one time around this whacky world, and a lot of the badness that I have seen here in Thailand I can't discuss for fear of exposing who I am. (Not self aggrandizing and not trying to be Superman anywhere but in bed, so, please.)

These black shirt guys, the ones mentioned in the fore posted Asia Times article http://www.internationalsexguide.info/forum/showpost.php?p=1025497&postcount=1378 are the same guys that whacked the drug dealers, the same guys that ran uncontrolled and illegal sniper patrols in the smuggling routes from Burma, the same guys that have fomented all of the latest orchestrated violence in Bangkok, and the same guys that have been on Thaksin's payroll for over 12 years. Got it? If you don't, then read the AT article again. Then, listen to a guy that has seen it first hand.

Stop fooling yourselves into believing that this is some sort of little class struggle, it's framed by the Thaksin's good old "spin the dupes for the for their money" machine, then pandered to by the ignorant western press, even the ones that "kinda sorta" live here. This entire thing has absolutely NOTHING TO DO WITH POOR VS RICH.

Thaksin, his TRT buddies, and their half drunken but extremely deadly thugs, (black shirt, camo pants, Honda Phantom), are the cause of all of the death and mayhem on the streets of Bangkok Thailand this last week. Period. When their blurt mouthed temporary manager, Maj Gen Khattiya Sawasdipol, "Seh Daeng", got popped, all hell broke loose. (He was starting to talk about Thaksin, and well, you know the ending. Poof, the guy talking about Thaksin is gone, how easy was that?!)

Do I have to post a timeline for all of the same type of corrupt and violent behavior that Thaksin has displayed in the past? (Seriously, understand this: Thaksin is a monster. Follow the money.) Or, can you guys be adults and educate yourselves? It isn't a Sudoku guys, it's pretty easy.

Fuck me now I wish I had recorded those all day all night droning red shirt radio shows in Si Sa Ket. At the time, I laughed at the Pied Piper, I am not laughing now. You guys seriously don't know anything here do you? Do you actually live here?

Everybody I know seems to have a handle on this, even many of the old red shirts & people I know in the North East, I can't understand why you guys can't seem to get your heads around it.

Oh wait I know, I know, try actually living here.
You are making yourself look ever more foolish. You arrived at these discussions boasting about your business corruption and feeling sorry for yourself over grabbing a tiger (Thaksin) by the tail.

You now claim to be waaay to the left on politics, whilst doing double somersaults to excuse an army firing on the population that it's in existence to protect. And you make an absurd attempt to trash the rep of a photographer/journalist who was in the habit of evidencing unpleasant truths about Thaksin's government and who has continued in the same mode about the current regime???

Also, your boasts about being good heart remind me of an ex-poster on here. But I'll hold back on that one for now.

btw, Replying to your posts is hard work: You seem to be being moderated.

The Pro

05-31-10, 03:37

You are making yourself look ever more foolish. You arrived at these discussions boasting about your business corruption and feeling sorry for yourself over grabbing a tiger (Thaksin) by the tail.

You now claim to be waaay to the left on politics, whilst doing double somersaults to excuse an army firing on the population that it's in existence to protect. And you make an absurd attempt to trash the rep of a photographer/journalist who was in the habit of evidencing unpleasant truths about Thaksin's government and who has continued in the same mode about the current regime???

Also, your boasts about being good heart remind me of an ex-poster on here. But I'll hold back on that one for now.

btw, Replying to your posts is hard work: You seem to be being moderated.TT, there are a number of farang who are well embeded with the Yellow shirts, they are "business partners" with the rich scum that support and finance the yellow side. They happily ignore corruption to make money from it, but being middle men to the corrupt business contracts and tenders with outside companies.

Whilst they ignore and skim money off of the "yellow" sides corruption, it was these same people who got upset with Thaksin as he "cut off" their contracts and corruption.

Therefore they are very against Thaksin and very pro yellow shirt corruption.

I think we all know what side certain people are on - they are simply following the money, if the Democrats in power means they make money though being party to the corruption it entails, that is the side they will choose.

Giotto

05-31-10, 04:48

Videos:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUqjbKqePLg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2liXe3dIYIA&feature=player_embedded

Giotto

Giotto

05-31-10, 06:18

Giotto

05-31-10, 06:29

Wow, I better will not comment on this one:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/37714/a-guide-to-the-perfect-thai-idiot

Giotto

LittleBigMan

05-31-10, 06:36

There is a article written in the Bangkok Post (Wednesday) Opinion & Analiysis written by Sawai Boonma " A guide to the perfect Thai idiot " page 9, that pretty much size things up for me about what is going on!

LBM

Giotto,

I wrote this on 26-5, when I read this piece it really brought and confirm what I have been hearing and experiencing throughout the years from many including OTH. No wonder the Thais want to kill this guy!

LBM

Fon Tok

05-31-10, 09:17

... read this piece it really brought and confirm what I have been hearing and experiencing throughout the years from many including OTH. No wonder the Thais want to kill this guy!LBMThe aforementioned article -- A Guide to the Perfect Thai Idiot -- can also be found on the author's website. Good reading:

http://sawaiboonma.com/a-guide-to-the-perfect-thai-idiot

Additionally, there is a 27 May New York Times article mentioned in the comments that examines the strength of tourism in Phuket despite the problems in Bangkok:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/28/business/global/28thaitour.html?ref=global-home

Fon Tok

05-31-10, 09:29

Wherever I find a political discussion forum about the situation / events of the past few weeks in Thailand I observe, that after a short while of exchanging arguments it all ends up in useless personal denigration and attacks that undermines all serious attempts of a discussion.
Sad. GiottoThe Thai Parliament cannot even agree on what evidence, especially videos clips, to show as part of their debate on the 19 May Crackdown...

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/37990/panel-fails-to-agree-on-riot-footage

How will they ever even begin to work out any possible solutions if they can't even agree how to discuss the problem?

Fon Tok

05-31-10, 13:26

The view from Khon Kaen (via Time magazine!):

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1992244,00.html

and, Canada:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/dark-shadow-over-the-thai-smile/article1583443/

Barko

05-31-10, 16:25

The view from Khon Kaen:

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1992244,00.html

and, Canada:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/dark-shadow-over-the-thai-smile/article1583443/Thank you for the head's up.

Wars take money. It doesn't take a 150 IQ to understand where the money is coming from for the red shirts. The red shirts are Thaksin's cannon fodder, pure and simple. This has been my ONLY contention from my first post regarding this, and my only point of the matter here. This has nothing to do with a class war, it has to do with Thaksin. (Now look at Thaksin's "reconciliation" banter, the ONLY reconciliation this bastard wants is his billion and a half bucks back. Oh yeah, he wants all that illegal land in Phuket he scammed back too. Oh, and the place on Ratchadapisek, and, and.)

I totally and absolutely disagree with the violence, but if you study the timeline, the violence was a foregone conclusion. "Take Bangkok street by street", "Take my blood first", and "I will die before I leave here. " Yep, sounds like a just a nice little non-violent protest to me! Just a bunch of long hair tree huggers, that's what these guys are! Yeah! Heh.

Of course you don't like my beating this to death. And obviously you think I am aligned with the power elite and the yellow shirts. No, I'm not, not in the least. My only point is: Thaksin's ruthless abuse of power and money, and as the old saying goes, his power "corrupts absolutely". Wars take money, the money is Thaksin's, Thaksin is to blame for the carnage. If he hadn't instigated it, it never would have happened.

Pics: Now take a good look. If this had been any where else in the world, these people would have been blown out of their saddles in a heartbeat. I'm NOT saying that it was right, I hate what happened, but I what AM saying is that the people of Bangkok weren't going to sit still for this, who would? (Check out those punjis and think if it was your restaurant, or your your hotel, or your 7-11, or your massage shop, or your school, or your ANYTHING, right in front of them.)

Langsuan, then Wittayu, then Lumpini. Yep, it sure does look like they were taking the streets, "one by one" to me. You? (Sorry the pics are so fucking shitty, I was on the Scoopy i and one handing the tiny Nikon.)

Read the Time Mag article three times if you have to. Then read the last line of The Global and Mail piece (foregone conclusion.) Then level up your compass.

Lifeingr

05-31-10, 18:57

China has the "Great Firewall" and now Thailand has the "Yellow Firewall". I hear today that they are now trying to block access to Thaksin's website for all Thai people.

Anyway.

To get around it.

Go to Google Translate

http://translate.google.com

..................

Thank you! Works fine.

Fon Tok

06-03-10, 00:10

Excellent Bangkok Post opinion piece today concerning the Thai Parliament's recent censure debate:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/38164/abhisit-co-survive-but-parliament-takes-a-drubbing

It is only a matter of time until Bangkok burns again...

The Pro

06-03-10, 04:35

A good summary of the blame game Abhisit appears to be trying to play.

http://thaipoliticalprisoners.wordpress.com/2010/06/02/abhisit-dissembles/

!

Fon Tok

06-03-10, 20:34

The Pro

06-04-10, 04:38

Interesting Wall Street Journal piece on the relevance of Thai history to the present situation:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703703704575277262807468660.html

btw, The Pro's link below is censored in BKK (on True ISP)As said earlier, if you are in Thailand use Google Translate, put the link in and do a "Thai" to "English" conversion, it should get aroung the government blocks and show you the website by it being "within" google.

Giotto

06-04-10, 05:25

Interesting Wall Street Journal piece on the relevance of Thai history to the present situation:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703703704575277262807468660.html
...

From the article:
...
The country found itself with a premier, Judge Thanin Kraiwichian, so right wing that the Thai army staged a coup to oust him in 1977.
...

Thanin is still a member of the privy council today.

Giotto

Fon Tok

06-04-10, 05:37

As said earlier, if you are in Thailand use Google Translate, put the link in and do a "Thai" to "English" conversion, it should get aroung the government blocks and show you the website by it being "within" google.Using your suggested tip, the block still comes up in English as:

Access to this information. Suspended temporarily
By virtue Emergency Decree on Public Administration.
In emergency situations, BE 2548.
The command center of the emergency situation.

โดยอาศัยอำนาจตาม
พระราชกำหนดการบริหารราชการ
ในสถานการณ์ฉุกเฉิน พ.ศ. ๒๕๔๘
ตามคำสั่งของศูนย์อำนวยการแก้ไขสถานการณ์ฉุกเฉิน

It looks to me that the CRES/MICT have highjacked the link (in TH at least) as all I get, even when I google "thaipolitical prisoners.wordpress" is the following url:

http://58.97.5.29/www.capothai.org/

Giotto

06-04-10, 06:10

Very interesting analysis from ANU: Thailand in Crisis (Part 2)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G94uSuQxSA0&feature=player_embedded

The Pro

06-04-10, 13:47

Using your suggested tip, the block still comes up in English as:

Access to this information. Suspended temporarily
By virtue Emergency Decree on Public Administration.
In emergency situations, BE 2548.
The command center of the emergency situation.

โดยอาศัยอำนาจตาม
พระราชกำหนดการบริหารราชการ
ในสถานการณ์ฉุกเฉิน พ.ศ. ๒๕๔๘
ตามคำสั่งของศูนย์อำนวยการแก้ไขสถานการณ์ฉุกเฉิน

It looks to me that the CRES/MICT have highjacked the link (in TH at least) as all I get, even when I google "thaipolitical prisoners.wordpress" is the following url:

http://58.97.5.29/www.capothai.org/Use Yahoo then.

Go to http://babelfish.yahoo.com/

Then put the web page link into the "Translate Web Page" area and select something, like "Dutch to English".

Should all come up in English in BabelFish.

Fon Tok

06-05-10, 00:27

Use Yahoo then. Go to http://babelfish.yahoo.com/
Then put the web page link into the "Translate Web Page" area and select something, like "Dutch to English".Should all come up in English in BabelFish.Got it. Thanks.

BTW, early yesterday a Bangkok Post article early reported that Thai Foreign Minister Kasit was on his way out with the imminent cabinet reshuffle. By the end of the day, this was no longer the case. The "yellow" guys must really have a lot of clout with Abhisit/Suthep & Co!

Cabinet reshuffle story from today: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/38216/six-ministers-are-ousted

One interesting passage from this news story:

Pornsilp Patcharintanakul, deputy secretary-general of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said he expects to see the new labour minister tackle productivity to increase competitiveness and address labour shortages in the agricultural sector. Mr Pornsilp said more incentives should be introduced to keep workers in the farming sector. ''The workers turn away from the farm work and join the service sector such as restaurants and karaoke parlours. We should fix this urgently,'' he said.

I read between the lines here, and can only think he is saying "keep the poor folks (read: red shirts) out in the fields and away from Bangkok!" Can't have all those pretty Isaan rice pluckers working as hostesses in karaoke parlors now, can we!

Fon Tok

06-06-10, 09:12

There is a very good Bangkok Post article today -- an interview with Anusorn Tamajai, dean of economics at Rangsit University. The piece looks at the fundamental problems facing Thailand and, ultimately, the Thai economy.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/38304/the-economy-is-not-the-issue

In conclusion, Anusan comes to the conclusion that Thailand is not yet a failed state, "But I want to ask, are we (TH) almost a failed state, or is it possible that we could become one? It is possible if we are unable to resolve problems about stability and the solidity of the political system."

Fon Tok

06-06-10, 09:17

Very interesting analysis from ANU: Thailand in Crisis (Part 2)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G94uSuQxSA0&feature=player_embeddedThanks Dr. G for pointing this out.

I thought the suggestions made by Professor Des Ball at the end of the interview about reforming the Thai military and Royal Thai Police were interesting, but probably have as much of a chance of happening as a snowstorm in Bangkok!

Fon Tok

06-06-10, 13:37

Saw this link to a Newsweek article on the weekly Stickman column:

http://www.newsweek.com/2010/06/04/the-end-of-brand-thailand.html

The outlook is rather grim.

Cunning Stunt

06-06-10, 15:49

was in central london yesterday and was amused to see that trafalgar square had been taken over by thais. no, it wasn’t thaksins red barmy armies uk branch on a day out but only the thai tourist department roadshow out trying to fix some of the almost irrepairable damage done to ‘brand thailand’ by events of recent months. but it at least shows that the thai government are taking a proactive stance in their attempts to put things to right. no doubt there will be similar shows, in coming months, in other european capitals, and maybe even the states.

the thai ambassador to uk gave a lacklustre speech. not a word even remotely interesting or political although he did mention several times, to the general hilarity of the good humoured crowd, that abhisit and david cameron were contemporaries at eton. as abhisit is two years older than the new british pm, could this mean that cameron might have been the thai pm’s fag? the mind boggles:eek:

i just enjoyed the fine bangkok like weather, the excellent thai food on offer, and the sight of more lovely thai wenches, that i have seen in one place at one time, outside of bangkok or pattaya. many obviously semi-retired bargirls escorted by their heavily tattooed brit monger husbands resplendant in ‘i luv pattaya’ muscle shirts. ahh … it was almost like being back on soi 6.

some photos.

Terry Terrier

06-06-10, 22:09

.....As Abhisit is two years older than the new British PM, could this mean that Cameron might have been the Thai PM’s fag? The mind boggles:eek:.....
PMSL. The nuances of life at a Public School in the UK are probably lost on many non-UK members of ISG. Just try to imagine the boy Cameron being bullied, sent on errands and possibly, just possibly, being sexually mistreated by the older Abhisit and his pals such as the foppish Mayor of London Boris Johnson. :D

Fon Tok

06-08-10, 11:39

There is an excellent article in today's Bangkok Post entitled, "A bottom-up solution to southern turmoil."

http://www.bangkokpost.com/feature/development/38395/a-bottom-up-solution-to-southern-turmoil

The article primarily discusses a community development project in the far southern community Pattani, but it also draws on similarities to roots of the recent trouble in Bangkok.

''How people think and feel is really important. The same goes for the recent turmoil in Bangkok. The red shirts weren't all poor. So why did they come? We need to understand their motives to get to the roots of the problem,'' he said, suggesting that, after all, the friction we're facing is not a geographic one.

To create social justice is to bridge the gap between the local communities and the government that makes policies. The top-to-bottom or bird's-eye approach of previous research was based too much on political and economic aspects and less on social justice and respect for local customs. The key to changing Thailand's governmental and institutional status quo lies within the people themselves. Country-wide improvements in education, open access to truthful information, and programs building local community empowerment are the enemies of any Bangkok-centric ruling regime.

A worm's-eye view is the first step towards a new reality. One that is not bound by the confines of raging violence and media dramatisation. At that moment, we may glimpse the crux of this conflict.

...the cases of yellow versus red shirts were not essentially about hunger but rather stemmed from injustice that bred fury. In the process, a number of rural people were allegedly brought in by those with power to release their anger in the city and inadvertently fell as victims of a regime struggle.

''Here I am, observing the most horrifying process of dehumanisation,'' lamented Srisakra, referring to the recent Bangkok turmoil. I believe that the finger pointing going on at the moment is just a smoke screen to hide the fact that there are very few attempts similar to this study to truly explore the potential for real change.

Terry Terrier

06-08-10, 23:20

Fon Tok

06-11-10, 15:59

Yesterday's New York Times had a story about the Abhisit government's reconciliation plan:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/11/world/asia/11thai.html?ref=world

Terry Terrier

06-12-10, 23:32

Yesterday's New York Times had a story about the Abhisit government's reconciliation plan:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/11/world/asia/11thai.html?ref=world
"It also seeks to control the news media"

Fon Tok

06-13-10, 17:07

"It also seeks to control the news media""The Thai government is proposing to buy Thaicom Plc from Singapore-based Temasek Holdings to avoid future conflicts stemming from the use of the company's satellites to air anti-government broadcasts, according to an industry source..."

See:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/telecom/181132/government-pursues-plan-to-buy-thaicom

Fon Tok

06-15-10, 23:33

One reporter's personal account concerning the institutional marginalization of the foreign press in Thailand:

http://blogs.reuters.com/andrew-marshall/2010/06/12/thaksin_and_me/

Thailand is a beautiful country that is being torn apart by severe social injustices, entrenched corruption, double standards, censorship, militarism, a refusal by the elites to accept the consequences of democracy, and creeping authoritarianism. It is, of course, a complex and difficult situation, not easily reduced to black and white (or red and yellow) and full of nuance and shades of grey. But refusing to acknowledge the serious problems and grievances at the heart of the crisis is no way to solve it.

If there is one thing that I learned from the story of Thaksin and me, it is that one of the most important things we can do as journalists is to call a spade a spade, to acknowledge the elephant in the room, to point out that the emperor has no clothes.

If we see a steaming pile of buffalo dung, it is our duty to say clearly that it is a steaming pile of buffalo dung. However hard the rich and powerful try to convince us it is a dazzling crock of gold.

Terry Terrier

06-16-10, 01:56

One reporter's personal account concerning the institutional marginalization of the foreign press in Thailand:

http://blogs.reuters.com/andrew-marshall/2010/06/12/thaksin_and_me/
Yeah, the Old Bangkok Elites and their middle class support base thought the international media were belittling Thailand when the erstwhile Golden Boy was being scrutinized. Then, the same media became rather splendid for continuing to scrutinize Thaksin when he forgot his place and tried to short-circuit the patronage system. Then this damned unruly foreign media started showing an interest in the dominant, Old Elite controlled factions of the armed forces and their manipulations of an anti-Thaksin protest group called 'PAD'. It was quite appalling that those interfering foreign media people were exposing what was being presented as an explosion of moral outrage by the nicest people in Bangkok to be, in reality, a cynical attempt by characters equally as corrupt as Thaksin to get him and his associates away from the money trough and themselves back feeding at it.

And so it unfolded that journalists such as the BBC's Jonathan Head, who had done such stellar work in exposing Thaksin's abuses of power from inside Thailand without feeling unduly threatened, had to leave the country in a hurry after focusing the world's media on Old Money Bangkok's return to prominence.

Fon Tok

06-16-10, 17:19

This is an interesting report examining what was burned on May 19, and some possible whys and why nots:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/LF17Ae01.html

Fon Tok

06-17-10, 02:38

...And so it unfolded that journalists such as the BBC's Jonathan Head, who had done such stellar work in exposing Thaksin's abuses of power from inside Thailand without feeling unduly threatened, had to leave the country in a hurry after focusing the world's media on Old Money Bangkok's return to prominence.In Thailand, the name of the game is: Survival of the Richest!

On the everyday street level, one should never get in the way of a big black Mercedes.

Terry Terrier

06-18-10, 22:06

This is an interesting report examining what was burned on May 19, and some possible whys and why nots:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/LF17Ae01.html
I always find William Barnes' journalism inadequate and disappointing. Unlike other foreign correspondents covering S E Asia, he seems unable or unwilling to look at the bigger picture. Wrt to Thailand he seems to have made a decision a while ago about who the baddies and goodies are and just proceeds to patronise his readers along those lines. The best journalists know that only the bad guys, the genuinely big players, the ones who are holding up Thailand's progress toward becoming a modern nation, are making the big decisions on both sides of the divide at the moment, and that all the other 'players' are being used as disposable pawns.

Fon Tok

06-19-10, 04:56

Today's Bangkok Post has a number of articles marking the one month point since the May 19 violent crackdown by the Thai government ending the UDD "red shirt" protests in Bangkok

One article details the increasing role of the Thai military in controlling the country: Army's power at peak since crackdown

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/39016/army-power-at-peak-since-crackdown

The army is at the peak of its power after playing a key role in security operations to crack down on anti-government protesters last month.

The army and the government have emerged triumphant after the dispersal of the red shirts and their close ties will likely boost the Democrat Party-led coalition's chances of remaining in power longer.

However, allegations have surfaced that security operations to disperse the red shirts went awry, resulting in the deaths and injuries of protesters.

Up to 90 people were killed and almost 2,000 were injured in the political mayhem that gripped the country during the red shirt protest between March 12 and May 19. Another article discusses the reorganization and potential future of the UDD movement: Red shirts down, but not out

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/39019/red-shirts-down-but-not-out

It has been a month since red shirt protesters were dispersed from Ratchaprasong intersection, ending a two-month, violent protest.

With its core leaders in custody and charged with terrorism, many people might now wonder if the red shirt movement, which proved a formidable force in opposing the Abhisit Vejjajiva government over the past 18 months, will now just fade away.

The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) might well be down, but it is definitely not out.

One UDD leader who asked not to be named said the red shirts are planning more strategies for their campaign to oust the government and what they label the amataya, or social elite.

"It is only a matter of time before a new attack is mounted," the red shirt leader said. "It will be a whole new game."Despite talk of reconciliation and new elections, it is clear that the present Thai government continues its steady momentum toward becoming a military state. The Abhisit regime's priority clearly is protecting the collective interests of the various unofficial powers that be from a fair polling of the country's people.

Fon Tok

06-20-10, 00:48

Another day in...

The Sunday Bangkok Post published an article critical of the Abhisit government's handling of the UDD 'red shirt' demonstrations.

It's entitled: Forum blasts government 'abuses' during rally.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/39052/forum-blasts-govt-abuses-during-rally

The government violated international human rights principles by endorsing the military's indiscriminate and excessive use of force against red shirt protesters, a forum has concluded.

At yesterday's event at Thammasat University, which marked the one-month anniversary of security forces' dispersal of United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) protesters, rights advocates and academics also slammed the state for using propaganda to whitewash its unjust actions and the emergency decree to eliminate dissidents.

"What the state has done is in violation of the United Nations' principles on human rights" said Krittiya Archavanikul of Mahidol University's Human Rights Centre.

She was referring to the military's dispersal operations carried out on April 10 and from May 14 to 19, which resulted in 90 deaths and over 1,800 injuries.

The Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation has been unable to substantiate its claims that the military used live rounds against protesters and bystanders only in self-defence, she said.

The state had not employed force to disperse the crowd on a proportional basis as stipulated by the Universal Declaration on Human Rights ratified by Thailand, she said.

"The state has used the term 'terrorism' to clean the dirt it is hiding," said Mrs Krittiya.

Peace advocate Kwanravee Wang-udom said the CRES had violated international rights principles by allowing soldiers to use live rounds without close supervision.

The CRES's orders gave authorities legal immunity to commit unjust actions, Ms Kwanravee said.

Kasem Penpinant of Chulalongkorn University's arts faculty said the use of over 50,000 heavily armed security forces personnel to disperse a political gathering should not have happened in a democratic country.

"It was like a military operation during a war," he said, adding the government has failed to provide clear evidence to substantiate its claim that terrorists had mingled among the protesters.

A key issue at the forum was the state's use of propaganda to justify the military operation.

Chulalongkorn University political scientist Jakkrit Sangkhamanee said the government's use of propaganda has been successful because it was well planned.

"Propaganda has been used to make the public trust the government, and fear and hate protesters, as well as to bring debate to a swift conclusion," he said.

During its daily televised announcements, the CRES had used terms like "law breakers" to refer to the protesters, creating a bias against them that helped justify the state's actions.

"The state has been selective in telling the truth and has distracted public attention from core issues," he said, citing the CRES's refusal to clarify whether the army had used snipers during dispersal operations.

Human rights advocate Sarawut Prathumrat urged the government to lift the emergency decree, saying it has led to more abuses of authority.

Red shirt supporters and leaders, as well as their family members, have been brought in for interrogation by security forces since the decree was put into effect, he said. Many have also been threatened and arrested, he said.

Pruek Thaothawin, a lecturer with Ubon Ratchathani University's arts faculty, said the decree "is a tool for the state to administer its fear of dissidents".There's a nice shot of some G-Cub dancers with the article, too. Like I said, Amazing Thailand!

Pita123

06-20-10, 03:35

Another day in...

There's a nice shot of some G-Cub dancers with the article, too. Like I said, Amazing Thailand!

G-Club? Looks more like dancers at Hollywood or someplace similar.

Fon Tok

06-20-10, 04:50

G-Club? Looks more like dancers at Hollywood or someplace similar.I don't get out much...
;)

Fon Tok

06-30-10, 03:23

From the Irrawaddy News: Thai Government Targets Red Shirts with Harsh Law

http://www.irrawaddy.org/print_article.php?art_id=18814

That the (Thai) government is sticking to such a tough line while also promising to heal this South-east Asian kingdom’s political divide through a reconciliation initiative is leaving it open to charges that it is undermining its repeated claims of being a standard bearer of liberal democratic values.

Critics say that the 18-month-old Abhisit administration is proving what the red shirt protesters had said all along—that it was a military-backed administration reluctant to go to the polls to secure its legitimacy. The latter view stems from the role the country’s powerful army chief played in shaping a backroom deal in a military compound in December 2008 to ensure that Abhisit had an alliance of parties to secure a victory in a parliamentary vote.

The Pro

07-10-10, 11:32

Yet more repression and oppression.

This one actually come out in the Nation (not known for anything other than being a pure Yellow news source).

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Prachatai-to-shut-down-web-board-30133464.html

Opebo

07-10-10, 20:19

freedom of speech is going downhill fast as is the country.

actually i find the current regime far, far more salubrious for our hobby than the previous ones. venues are open later, and there are a lot fewer 'crackdowns - attempts to control sexual business in the name of 'social order'. i'm a strong believer that, generally speaking, hedonism and personal freedom fare far better under the ancien régime than under democracy. after all, what good does political freedom or 'free speech' do anyone? back home in the land of rules we can look at porn but not buy sex.

oldian, lots of places with good prices, there are more and more places popping up all the time, remember, bangkok used to be expensive until all the boutique hotels starting popping up.

haha, interesting point of view. to me bangkok is enormously more expensive than years ago because the old 400-500 baht hotels are so much rarer. but at your higher-end, perhaps it is cheaper.

anyway, each to their own. given the present government (military) in thailand, and given the new anti-corruption president in the philippines, given the strength of the baht and the relative (to the baht) weakness of the peso, they could finally turn manila into solid competition to bangkok in the coming years.

competition for what? family tourism? foreign direct investment? certainly not sex tourism, the bedrock of which is corruption and oligarchy. we are never popular, gentlemen, with the mass of the people, and our only hope of freedom is when they lack a voice (the nosy prudes).

yet more repression and oppression.

oh, i will relish it while it lasts - alas it cannot last much longer and this last tidbit of the old order will pass away, and even this happy place will succumb to individualism, human rights, absolutism and democracy - in other words another joyless little america.

The Pro

07-11-10, 03:29

the crackdowns and late opening never bothered me in the slightest, the crackdowns were anti-drugs and to to be honest i am all for more of that against substance abuse.

as you will see the less crackdowns there are, the more africans there are in bangkok selling drugs and doing all sorts of illegal activities.

late opening, do not care, i am normally all spent a couple of times and happily sleeping by 1am.

-----

yes, i do mean the upper end is coming down in prices and upper mid is now priced at lower mid.

-----

actually i find the current regime far, far more salubrious for our hobby than the previous ones. venues are open later, and there are a lot fewer 'crackdowns - attempts to control sexual business in the name of 'social order'. i'm a strong believer that, generally speaking, hedonism and personal freedom fare far better under the ancien régime than under democracy. after all, what good does political freedom or 'free speech' do anyone? back home in the land of rules we can look at porn but not buy sex.

haha, interesting point of view. to me bangkok is enormously more expensive than years ago because the old 400-500 baht hotels are so much rarer. but at your higher-end, perhaps it is cheaper.

competition for what? family tourism? foreign direct investment? certainly not sex tourism, the bedrock of which is corruption and oligarchy. we are never popular, gentlemen, with the mass of the people, and our only hope of freedom is when they lack a voice (the nosy prudes).

oh, i will relish it while it lasts - alas it cannot last much longer and this last tidbit of the old order will pass away, and even this happy place will succumb to individualism, human rights, absolutism and democracy - in other words another joyless little america.

Opebo

07-12-10, 18:03

The crackdowns and late opening never bothered me in the slightest, the crackdowns were anti-drugs and to to be honest I am all for more of that against substance abuse.

Yes! You are precisely the sort of person who is served well by democracy.

Pita123

07-16-10, 19:01

I don't get out much...
;)
gf got you tied to the bed again? :)

Fon Tok

09-03-10, 05:51

There is an interesting article in the Asia Times about alleged arms dealer Viktor Bout.

Why the US really wants Bout
By Bertil Lintner

"While Bangkok-based observers weigh the legal merits of extraditing alleged Russian gunrunner Viktor Bout to the United States, a far more important issue seems to have eluded the media: why is Washington so eager to get its hands on Bout and why is Moscow doing everything in its power to prevent that from happening?

Bout was caught in a sting operation in Bangkok in March 2008 when US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agents, posing as representatives of the Colombian narco-rebel movement Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), claimed that they wanted to buy a large consignment of weapons from him.

Notably there had been no other reports of Bout's alleged involvement in the international arms trade since..."

Full story here: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/LH31Ae02.html

Fon Tok

09-15-10, 10:55

A view of Thailand from the the far side of left,

"...The primary role of the Thai military is to police and repress Thai citizens on behalf of the ruling class. The only other additional role is as a wealth-generating machine for the generals..."

http://socialistworker.org/2010/09/08/power-behind-the-thai-throne

The Pro

10-10-10, 02:30

Bangkok Post is getting much better now. This article is the latest in a few of decent bits of coverage on Thai politics.

Sadly, its mostly from just a couple of their journalists, but its a start.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/200590/get-bhumjaithai-out

.

The Pro

11-07-10, 02:53

Another good article in the Bangkok Post. This writer must be the target of a sniper bullet or "accident" fairly soon if he keeps writing this.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/205159/court-reminds-us-of-where-we-stand

The Thai courts and justice system is corrupt to the core it is said and its been the tool of the Yellows sponser to evict Thaksin and his party from power, everyone knows that but at last people are not exposing just how corrupt it is.

Now perhaps more people will understand why Thaksin can travel the world freely, its because the world knows the charges were "approved" under a corrupt justice system by corrupt judges under the pay of the sponsers of the yellow shirts, so it is said.

The Pro

12-15-10, 13:54

Finally an "official" stamp to what everyone has been saying.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101215/wl_asia_afp/thailandroyalspoliticswikileaks

Thai queen accused over 2006 military coup: US cable.

Wed Dec 15, 2:03 am ET.

LONDON (AFP) – A former Thai premier accused the queen of responsibility for a 2006 military coup, a leaked US diplomatic memo showed, prompting Bangkok to insist the monarchy was above partisan politics.

Samak Sundaravej, who was prime minister for seven months in 2008,"showed disdain for Queen Sirikit, claiming that she had been responsible for th.

The Pro

01-09-11, 01:55

A good read on the PAD / Dems / Cambodia.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/215125/the-magnificent-seven-ride-in-the-wrong-direction

Goyave

01-17-11, 11:31

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/216652/poll-most-will-take-vote-buying-money

Most of the people will accept money offerred by election candidates to buy votes from them, according an Abac Poll conducted by Assumption University.

The poll was conducted on 2,604 eligible voters in 18 provinces - Bangkok, Chachoengsao, Suphan Buri, Lop Buri, Chon Buri, and Samut Prakan in the Central Region; Sukhothai, Phitsanulok, Nakhon Sawan, and Chiang Mai in the North; Nakhon Phanom, Sakon Nakhon, Si Sa Ket, and Udon Thani in the Northeast; and Satun, Pattani, Nakhon Sithammarat and Songkhla in the South - during Jan 8-15.

Most or 53.2 per cent of those surveyed said they would accept the money offerred to buy votes from them, 40.2 per cent would not take it, while 6.6 per cent were non-committal.

Of those who would take the money, most or 69.6 per cent were in the Northeast, followed by those in Bangkok.

Most or 79.5 per cent of the respondents admitted vote-buying took place in their communities, while 20.5 per cent said otherwise.

Asked about their political standpoint, 61.1 per cent of the respondents said they would rather be a silent force in the middle, 27.2 per cent supported the government and 11.7 per cent did not support the government.

Stevebny

02-06-11, 12:55

I remember reading something about Toxin about a year ago that complained not that he was corrupt but that he was too corrupt. That explains a lot about Politics here.

Keeniu

05-11-11, 14:56

What is more likely to happen?

I arrive late July. I figure no matter who wins, protests will kick off / peak about a month later.

I figure some 'horsetrading' may need to take place if no outright majority, and my reading of the internal structure.

Is that the power brokers refuse to accept things HAVE changed, and 'no deals' leading to a stalemate.

On the plus side, baht may drop and gals may be cheaper, because no matter what, press.

Will make it appear 'newsworthy'. Or will this time be different?

I figure Pattaya and the Main airport should be safe enough, and just give BKK a miss. I really only care if a 'Do Not Travel' alert pops up. What do members reckon?

Skeetm

06-06-11, 13:18

Xerman

06-13-11, 13:22

What effects will these elections have? Do July travelers need to do anything to be prepared for possible unrest in Bangkok?

Thanks.

Giotto

06-23-11, 17:03

To whom it may concern. To all who are interested in some background information:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/58516989/thaistory1-1

Dynamite. Must Read!

Background Info:

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2011/06/23/andrew-marshalls-thai-story/

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/andrew-macgregor-marshall-why-i-decided-to-jeopardise-my-career-and-publish-secrets-2301363.html

http://twitter.com//search? Q=%23thaistory.

That's it then.

Giotto

Bun Biter

07-02-11, 23:24

To whom it may concern. To all who are interested in some background information:Thanks for the links. Very informative. I just hope that what is most feared will not come to pass in the immediate future.

Peace

The Pro

09-05-11, 03:48

Interesting article.

http://asiancorrespondent.com/64135/is-prem-losing-his-influence/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BangkokPundit+%28Bangkok+Pundit%29.

MojoRisinBD

01-02-14, 19:22

Considering the current political situation, is it a good time for mongering? How safe is Bangkok / Pattaya right now? Any chances of harassment? Answers will be much appreciated.

PinkPearl

01-03-14, 00:22

Considering the current political situation, is it a good time for mongering? How safe is Bangkok / Pattaya right now? Any chances of harassment? Answers will be much appreciated.The mongering & safety now is excellent as always for visitors. The political situation has not affected it at all, except that it has scared away some tourists so that numbers are low like in the low season.

However there is a very small chance things could become dangerous for foreigners, all hell break loose and or the airport be forcibly closed. January 13 is shut down Bangkok day with the reds & yellows set to swarm the streets of the capital. The armies tanks may roll.

JimboTambo

01-03-14, 00:36

Considering the current political situation, is it a good time for mongering? How safe is Bangkok / Pattaya right now? Any chances of harassment? Answers will be much appreciated.I had not been too concerned about this over the past couple of months, but it is now not looking good in the run up to the election on 2 February. The Opposition yesterday (2 January) foreshadowed its intent to mount an even

Larger and more disruptive demonstration on 13 January and is threatening to blockade major roads and buildings and shut down the capital (for 10 to 20 days if necessary) unless or until Yinluck steps down. Friends of mine were

Caught up in a similar situation a couple of years ago with the redshirt / yellow shirt conflict and could not get a flight home for a week. Whilst it might sound good to be stuck in Bangkok for a week, I think such a situation could play havoc with the usual variety of mongering outlets / service providers. I am now seriously considering (for the first time) cancelling my proposed trip in mid January for a month or two or until things settle down politically.

===========================================

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The Pro

01-03-14, 07:13

Considering the current political situation, is it a good time for mongering? How safe is Bangkok / Pattaya right now? Any chances of harassment? Answers will be much appreciated.Thailand is now inching towards civil war.

The anti-government anti-democracy protestors on the streets (Yellow / PAD / Facists) are ulta-nationalists. They hate foreigners and constantly berate the foreign press for reporting them as anti-democracy and anti-democracy, but that is what they are.

Whilst at the moment there has been no serious anti-foreigner attacks there have been reports of foreigners being abused and harassed by the anti-government protestors. One foreign journalist was beaten by them (http://www.chiangmaicitynews.com/news.php?id=2730)

January 13th represents the day the anti-government protesters will attempt to incite violence by shutting down all major roads in Bangkok. They know this will make the taxi drivers, motorbike taxi's and many pro-government people irate with anger and raise significantly the chances of violence.

At this time there is a significant increase in the potential for shootings from "third hand" forces. These are retired army, retired police, militia etc. Where innocents will be shot so that blame can be put on the other side.

The anti-government mobs want to turn support against the government in the western media so there is a chance as things get worse that some foreigners will be shot in order to grab headlines abroad. Likewise some of those against the anti-government mobs could target foreigners to put further pressure on the anti-government mobs by accusing them of targeting foreigners as they are ultra-nationalists.

I would strongly suggest that people avoid Bangkok from the 12th of January onwards. There is absolutely no point in putting yourself in harms way. Outside of Bangkok is fine but keep well away from Bangkok.

DRRonin

01-03-14, 10:22

I had not been too concerned about this over the past couple of months, but it is now not looking good in the run up to the election on 2 February. The Opposition yesterday (2 January) foreshadowed its intent to mount an even

Larger and more disruptive demonstration on 13 January and is threatening to blockade major roads and buildings and shut down the capital (for 10 to 20 days if necessary) unless or until Yinluck steps down. Friends of mine were

Caught up in a similar situation a couple of years ago with the redshirt / yellow shirt conflict and could not get a flight home for a week. Whilst it might sound good to be stuck in Bangkok for a week, I think such a situation could play havoc with the usual variety of mongering outlets / service providers. I am now seriously considering (for the first time) cancelling my proposed trip in mid January for a month or two or until things settle down politically.

===========================================

EDITOR's NOTE: This report was written with UNNECESSARY HARD RETURNS At the end of every line of text, resulting in the text being incorrectly broken up into separate, incomplete sentences.

There is NO NEED For any report to be written with UNNECESSARY HARD RETURNS At the end of every line of text.

If you are adding these hard returns at the end of every line by using the ENTER key, then please stop. Instead, when typing simply allow the text to "wrap" automatically at the end of each line. The ENTER key is only needed to separate the paragraphs.

However, if the unnecessary hard returns were the result of you having pasted the text into the forum from another source (such as a news wevsite) , then your option is to either edit out the unnecessary hard returns or don't post the text.

Please do not post text with unnecessary hard returns in the Forum. Thanks! You never can predict of course how these things will go. Real violence breaking out is a possible scenario in which case I head down to Pattaya from BKK in a flash. But I have been here thru the coup, the riots, the curfew, the airport shutdown and the floods and in truth none of that besides the 10 pm curfew impacted the goings on around Nana. The girls will always need money and will find a way to get to work. The numbers may go down but the numbers of tourists will drop even more so. When I was here during the curfew and the airport shutdown, the streets were empty of tourists and that isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Goatscrot

01-03-14, 10:53

You never can predict of course how these things will go. Real violence breaking out is a possible scenario in which case I head down to Pattaya from BKK in a flash. But I have been here thru the coup, the riots, the curfew, the airport shutdown and the floods and in truth none of that besides the 10 pm curfew impacted the goings on around Nana. The girls will always need money and will find a way to get to work. The numbers may go down but the numbers of tourists will drop even more so. When I was here during the curfew and the airport shutdown, the streets were empty of tourists and that isn't necessarily a bad thing.Been here through the same events as you. I am much more anxious about this one though. I really don't see a good "out" for either side.

Trashcanman77

01-03-14, 16:03

The anti-government mobs want to turn support against the government in the western media so there is a chance as things get worse that some foreigners will be shot in order to grab headlines abroad. Likewise some of those against the anti-government mobs could target foreigners to put further pressure on the anti-government mobs by accusing them of targeting foreigners as they are ultra-nationalists.

I would strongly suggest that people avoid Bangkok from the 12th of January onwards. There is absolutely no point in putting yourself in harms way. Outside of Bangkok is fine but keep well away from Bangkok.This is very exaggerated.

Wendella

01-03-14, 16:10

Arceus

01-03-14, 16:59

Paul Kausch

01-03-14, 19:01

I just remembered another big difference between Bangkok now and how it was just a few years ago. I was there a bunch of times between 2000 and 2009, and always saw elephants in the city. It was always with a guy leading it around to get money from tourists. I saw them at Soi Cowboy, on Soi Nana, and even at Siam Square near MBK, but not a single one anywhere in BKK on my most recent visit, which I just finished yesterday. Are they still around?The way the story goes is that they worked as unskilled manual laborers. Their jobs were replaced by automation. As they had no technical skills and were unemployable they had to beg on the streets for a living. A sad life for such a noble creature. I believe animal welfare folks made such a ruckus the government did something about them. What, I don't know. I'd like to think they created a welfare net for elephants, that would have to be one strong net, but fear that may not be the solution they implemented. Anyway, my understanding is they are gone and no longer to be seen in BKK.

Some of you guys living in BKK may know the real story which may or not be similar to my explanations.

Phordphan

01-03-14, 20:37

I just remembered another big difference between Bangkok now and how it was just a few years ago. I was there a bunch of times between 2000 and 2009, and always saw elephants in the city. It was always with a guy leading it around to get money from tourists. I saw them at Soi Cowboy, on Soi Nana, and even at Siam Square near MBK, but not a single one anywhere in BKK on my most recent visit, which I just finished yesterday. Are they still around?Paul's explanation is pretty accurate. What jobs the elephants could do have largely been automated, thus putting the elephants, and, by extension, their mahouts, out of business. The mahouts would schlep the poor beast around BKK and try to make a modest living selling fruit to tourists so they could feed the elephant.

A few years ago the gov't made a big push to get the elephants out of BKK. In truth, the city is a terrible place for an elephant. Walking around on hot pavement all day, a poor diet, sometimes getting hit by cars, etc. The elephants are much better off outside the city, but I'm not sure the same can be said of their mahouts. I do miss them.

There are many elephant sanctuaries, parks, etc, outside of BKK where you can still see them and ride them. The down side, besides getting there, is the ridiculous double-pricing schemes at many of them.

MojoRisinBD

01-06-14, 04:48

You never can predict of course how these things will go. Real violence breaking out is a possible scenario in which case I head down to Pattaya from BKK in a flash. But I have been here thru the coup, the riots, the curfew, the airport shutdown and the floods and in truth none of that besides the 10 pm curfew impacted the goings on around Nana. The girls will always need money and will find a way to get to work. The numbers may go down but the numbers of tourists will drop even more so. When I was here during the curfew and the airport shutdown, the streets were empty of tourists and that isn't necessarily a bad thing.Thanks everyone for your insightful reports on the current situation. We are a group of 4 people are planning a trip sometime in Feb, so I guess we will have to wait and see. Will definitely read all news on Bangkok on 14th Jan. We just wanted to go there before Summer comes. Been there twice before during summer, and it was very difficult to cope with.

Tony Hoeprano

01-06-14, 05:53

More talk about hookers and less about elephant penis. Let's stay the course guys

Beer Monger

01-06-14, 06:06

More talk about hookers and less about elephant penis. Let's stay the course guysSometimes the two go hand in hand

Tiradentes

01-06-14, 06:10

Paul Kausch

01-06-14, 09:17

Thailand is now inching towards civil war.

The anti-government anti-democracy protestors on the streets (Yellow / PAD / Facists) are ulta-nationalists. They hate foreigners and constantly berate the foreign press for reporting them as anti-democracy and anti-democracy, but that is what they are.

January 13th represents the day the anti-government protesters will attempt to incite violence by shutting down all major roads in Bangkok.

At this time there is a significant increase in the potential for shootings from "third hand" forces. These are retired army, retired police, militia etc. Where innocents will be shot so that blame can be put on the other side.

I would strongly suggest that people avoid Bangkok from the 12th of January onwards. There is absolutely no point in putting yourself in harms way. Outside of Bangkok is fine but keep well away from Bangkok.
There is too much money generated in BKK the last 20 years that the army will NOT let the situation spirals out of control. Expect an army coup. Maybe the shooting of foreigners and the threat of a civil war is all what the army awaits to intervene and thus appearing to the world as a savior. But unfortunately for the Thais, America is run by a comatose administration that is failing everywhere in the world to lead (M. E, SE Asia, China-Japan, Korea, Russia, etc.) so the Thais might have to pay a heftier price. Look at Egypt and Syria.

The Chief of the Army only last week blatantly declared he does not rule out a military intervention.Civil war? I don't think so. The opposition wants the Shinawatra family out of politics and out of the country. If the military steps in and the ruling party violently resists, they'll get squashed and in the end the opposition may get their wish.

Frankly, I don't think tourists smart enough to avoid wearing yellow or red shirts, who say nothing about local politics and stay clear of demonstrations are in any physical danger. Both sides have been careful and surprisingly successful at keeping violence to a minimum. Neither sides wants to be seen as instigating violence. The opposition may benefit if there is violence, but the last thing the ruling party wants is violence. That would cause the military to step in.

If the courts wish, they now have the legal justification to call off the elections. The Thai Constitution requires successful candidate registration in 95% of all constituencies. Candidates were registered in 94%. No election, no new elected government. Who steps in? The military.

The anti-government forces want to shut down the city. They want to incapacitate the government, forcing the military to step in. The military and the anti-government movement are sympathetic to one another.

The opposition plans to block many major intersections, they say twenty, including Asoke and Sukhumvit. The demonstrators plan to construct semi-permanent encampments. I'm not convinced the police or military will try that hard to disperse them. I don't think the government will call in their supporters to wage pitch battles against the demonstrators. That will prompt a military intervention. There is a real possibility the opposition will succeed at shutting down the city.

Vehicles, other than perhaps motor bikes, will not be able to navigate the streets. Buses and taxis will not be able to operate. People will flock to BTS and MRT, which will not be able to meet the demand and will grind to a halt. How will you get from the airport to your hotel? You'll have to walk everywhere. Fine once you've checked in, but are you going to jump on the train and walk with your luggage from Makkasan or Phaya Thai to your hotel in lower Sukhumvit? Maybe a dedicated monger will ;), but your typical tourist will go somewhere else.

If the mongers stay away, no business for the SW. They'll go back to Isan to see their families.

Wow, what a mess!

But as I see it, the opposition holds most of the aces and face cards.

The silver lining is it is such a big mess everything may come to a head in the next few weeks, and at least for us mongers everything will get back to normal by spring. I'm planning to watch the prices and book flights and hotel for a June trip. There may be some deals to be had.

Back to working on a more important report - one about fucking young women :D.

Goatscrot

01-06-14, 11:39

Civil war? I don't think so. The opposition wants the Shinawatra family out of politics and out of the country. If the military steps in and the ruling party violently resists, they'll get squashed and in the end the opposition may get their wish.

Frankly, I don't think tourists smart enough to avoid wearing yellow or red shirts, who say nothing about local politics and stay clear of demonstrations are in any physical danger. Both sides have been careful and surprisingly successful at keeping violence to a minimum. Neither sides wants to be seen as instigating violence. The opposition may benefit if there is violence, but the last thing the ruling party wants is violence. That would cause the military to step in.

If the courts wish, they now have the legal justification to call off the elections. The Thai Constitution requires successful candidate registration in 95% of all constituencies. Candidates were registered in 94. No election, no new elected government. Who steps in? The military.

The anti-government forces want to shut down the city. They want to incapacitate the government, forcing the military to step in. The military and the anti-government movement are sympathetic to one another.

The opposition plans to block many major intersections, they say twenty, including Asoke and Sukhumvit. The demonstrators plan to construct semi-permanent encampments. I'm not convinced the police or military will try that hard to disperse them. I don't think the government will call in their supporters to wage pitch battles against the demonstrators. That will prompt a military intervention. There is a real possibility the opposition will succeed at shutting down the city.

Vehicles, other than perhaps motor bikes, will not be able to navigate the streets. Buses and taxis will not be able to operate. People will flock to BTS and MRT, which will not be able to meet the demand and will grind to a halt. How will you get from the airport to your hotel? You'll have to walk everywhere. Fine once you've checked in, but are you going to jump on the train and walk with your luggage from Makkasan or Phaya Thai to your hotel in lower Sukhumvit? Maybe a dedicated monger will, but your typical tourist will go somewhere else.

If the mongers stay away, no business for the SW. They'll go back to Isan to see their families.

Wow, what a mess!

But as I see it, the opposition holds most of the aces and face cards.

The silver lining is it is such a big mess everything may come to a head in the next few weeks, and at least for us mongers everything will get back to normal by spring. I'm planning to watch the prices and book flights and hotel for a June trip. There may be some deals to be had.

Back to working on a more important report. One about fucking young women.Paul, the military is divided. They also know if there is a coup the NE and N will have real problems with it, and it could lead to real conflict.

The majority of the population lives in the NE. The cat is out of the bag and they will not allow a non-representative gov.

The Dems have not won an election since '92. They have the support in BKK and the South, but that will not win them an election.

Perhaps the only solution at this point is decentralization.

I lived through the red shirt ordeal and was never really concerned. This has me a bit jumpy. First time in 14 years for that.

The Pro

01-06-14, 12:46

civil war? i don't think so. the opposition wants the shinawatra family out of politics and out of the country. if the military steps in and the ruling party violently resists, they'll get squashed and in the end the opposition may get their wish.

frankly, i don't think tourists smart enough to avoid wearing yellow or red shirts, who say nothing about local politics and stay clear of demonstrations are in any physical danger. both sides have been careful and surprisingly successful at keeping violence to a minimum. neither sides wants to be seen as instigating violence. the opposition may benefit if there is violence, but the last thing the ruling party wants is violence. that would cause the military to step in.

if the courts wish, they now have the legal justification to call off the elections. the thai constitution requires successful candidate registration in 95% of all constituencies. candidates were registered in 94. no election, no new elected government. who steps in? the military..you have to be careful what you write. so i will just link to someone elses articles for the main bit.

reform? thaksin? yingluck? rice pledging? amnesty?. nothing to do with any of them.

read the articles in the links below. they may be of interest? and will perhaps explain why the protesters can do anything they want without fear of arrest. at the moment.

https://www.facebook.com/zenjournalist/posts/10152129283651154

http://www.zenjournalist.com/2013/10/%e0%b8%81%e0%b8%a5%e0%b8%b5%e0%b8%a2%e0%b8%b8%e0%b8%84-thailands-era-of-insanity/

but be warned.

do not discuss this subject with any thai. you could get into serious hot water, and if you say the wrong things you could end up in jail as thailand has very strict laws and anything to do with the monarchy is strictly taboo for farangs to talk about. there is no basic freedom of speech in thailand with regards to certain items.

Georgek

01-06-14, 15:10

I agree with Goatscrot I have been through the last 3 coups and all the previous trouble but this has the likelihood of being the worst we have yet seen. The people of the North & North East are point blank not going to accept the overthrow of an elected government & its replacement by whatever suits a Bangkok mob. The military is clearly aware of the divide in the army & it was noticeable that the units putting down the Reds in 2010 came from the East & South.

I would strongly recommend people seeking the actual reasons for this power struggle to read the excellent analysis & reports prepared by the two previous US ambassadors and revealed via Wikileaks. This material provides 90% of Andrew MacGregor Marshall's controversial articles on the subject.

GettingTang

01-08-14, 17:26

MojoRisinBD

01-08-14, 19:11

So guys, any hope of things settling down anytime soon? Was really looking forward to a great trip.

Giotto

01-09-14, 02:05

Guys,

I am enjoying the ongoing red / yellow discussion in this thread :):):) .

What everybody should learn from this is that most of the ladies we take home at night - are red! Most of them are from the North / North-East. Thaksin country! If you now decide to add a political discussion to your nightly fun activities, before or after the recreational sexercise - do not overextend your yellow opinions! Beside the fact that most of your red partners would anyway not understand them. All of them don't WANT to understand those thoughts.

Some infos regarding the demonstration:

The Bangkok-Shutdown from our beloved Mr. Suthep and his followers will target 7 key areas / traffic junctions in Bangkok:

1) Lumpini

2) Asoke-Sukhumvit

3) Ratchaprasong

4) Pathumwan

5) Victory Monument

6) Lat Prao

7) Chaeng Wattana Road

For mongers the only critical area is Asoke-Sukhumvit. That's basically the Soi Cowboy area - pity! No Suzie Wong and Baccara for a few days, guys. You really don't want to get into that trouble. Leave Soi Cowboy to Suthep and his cronies, for a few days!

As for tourists:

- Lumpini, is quite big, most likely they will block Rama 4. Then there might be an impact on getting to Patpong, Silom and Sathon Road. Better avoid this areas.

- Ratchaprasong: That's where the huge red demonstration was in 2010, Buddha with the Four Faces, Hyatt Eriwan Hotel, Central World, Pratunam. No shopping there, please!

- Pathumwan: again a shopping center area, MBP, Siam Center, Siam Paragon. To be avoided.

- Victory Monument: No victory for some days, no Saxophone (that's sad!)

I don't expect anybody to go to Lad Prao or Chaeng Wattana Road. Except you have to extend a visa! The immigration office is in the Government Complex in Chaeng Wattana Road!

And now - let's wait and see.

Giotto

Giotto

01-09-14, 03:31

To all polit-freaks some more background information from Andrew McGregor Marshall:

Thaksin in his Bunker, November 2013:

http://vimeo.com/81987107

McGregor Marshall is the Zenjournalist - and not so much liked here in Thailand, after he wrote a brilliant analysis about the early Thai history, especially the events from June 1946. He also published and interpreted some of the WikiLeaks from the American Embassy in Bangkok, with a lot of background information about what powerful people in this country think, but don't others want to know.

Many of his pieces and websites are blocked here in Thailand. The Pro published some links below, too.

Giotto

Paul Kausch

01-09-14, 03:31

BKK Post online lead article about how city will deal with protests.

Good news: airport rail and subway hours may be extended to 2am; river taxis round trips will increase from 70 to 90; special boat trip to transport people to public transportation will be created (no details provided) ; and private boat operators will be asked to increase services. Does that seem adequate to deal with the likely scenario? :rolleyes: The attached map is from the article.

Good luck and stay safe. Hope all of you guys in Bangkok come through this okay and without too much inconvenience.

PinkPearl

01-09-14, 03:42

What everybody should learn from this is that most of the ladies we take home at night - are red! Most of them are from the North / North-East. Thaksin country! If you now decide to add a political discussion to your nightly fun activities, before or after the recreational sexercise - do not overextend your yellow opinions!My P4P ladies & hotel maids are on the red side. They call the yellows "black shirts".

Beside the fact that most of your red partners would anyway not understand them. All of them don't WANT to understand those thoughts.It's the battle for "the planet of the apes". Shall the poor wait for mr anti foreigner Suthep to take away democracy from those he considers monkeys & set up his "peoples reform council" of China. Or fight for their right to vote for the Robin Hood of their choice.

For mongers the only critical area is Asoke-Sukhumvit. That's basically the Soi Cowboy area - pity! No Suzie Wong and Baccara for a few days, guys.No problem. I'll look for them at the Nana Hotel parking lot & area vicinity in the coming days. Or should that be weeks & months? It will be a buyer's market 7th heaven with bargains galore & the dollar soaring in value.

Time to stock up on spirits before the supply runs dry.

Jgm005

01-09-14, 05:49

Hilarious. Loved it. Too bad the Issan wife would not understand it.

To all polit-freaks some more background information from Andrew McGregor Marshall:

Thaksin in his Bunker, November 2013:

http://vimeo.com/81987107

Snipped.

Giotto

The Pro

01-09-14, 11:27

A must watch video related to the Bangkok protests. Anyone who knows a little about Thailand will love this parody.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mI4Pu0olT34

Giotto

01-10-14, 03:13

hi giotto,

i am glad to see you alive and still kicking!

as always, you have manged to summarize the upcoming snafu perfectly, thank you.

i wonder if you could look into your crystal ball once more and give us (me!) your guess (no guarantee!) for the time beyond the 13th.daddy,

greetings, hope you are well.

as for myself. i enjoy the state of retirement. gave up the roll as political commentator. but let me think it through, and then i write something later.

as a short introduction a piece from my favorite bangkok post commentator (voranai vanijaka) from today:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/388713/the-lawlessness-suthep-clamours-for-is-the-kind-of-dirt-no-soap-is-strong-enough-to-clean-and-neither-new-nor-courageous-says-voranai-vanijaka

both english newspapers comment quite similar on the issue. neither this remote-controlled government with all the mistakes it made especially in the past few months nor suthep's "people's democratic reform committee" is well-liked. what is liked on suthep's movement is the fact that all parties (including phuae thai) now agree that a general reform of the political system is necessary. good result, and now suthep should go home (that's what many people think).

now. we know that already for years. the question is how to get there, how to get the reforms in place. the super democratic demonstrators lead by the democratic suthep (backed by the democratic party) (i try to use the word "democracy" as often as possible) came to the result that the next elections should not take place before the reforms are in place done. very "democratic" idea, to block the in a way defining democratic right to vote. very very strange!

on the other hand the dubai controlled government and the phuae thai party want reforms after the elections. but many thais have there doubts after the ridiculous governing of the last few months. the government had it in its hands to instigate reforms since they took over the power years ago, but it did not. why should it do something after being reconfirmed as government in the next elections (and pt will get the majority again, no doubt about that!)!

another much more interesting question is: how to do reforms? the parliament tried to change the constitution to modify the election system for the senators. now half of them are appointed (and then of course more yellow). and the red government wanted that all senators should be elected. that's quite a good idea, a step in the right direction, backed even by many supporters of the dp, but the constitutional court gave is a ruling that such a modification of the constitution is an attempt to overthrow the political system with the monarch as the head of state and therefor unconstitutional. no joke!

let's look at the irony of the situation: the reds are using a yellow constitution (after coup constitution) to insist on elections and keep the care-taker pm in place, whilst the yellows don't want allow the people to conduct their constitutional rights to vote, based on their own yellow constitution.

and taking a look at the main players. suthep and thaksin. vomit! suthep, member of one of the richest families of the south, owning huge land plots in the surat thani district and the south in general. he is the same guy who was deputy pm in 2010, sending the army against the red shirt demonstrators on the rajprasong intersection, and finally around 100 people died. he is the same guy who mid of the 90's (1995 or 1996) transferred land plots in phuket to members of his own family and other amart families, when his own party (chuan lek-pai as pm) ordered a land reform. with his actions he initiated the "phuket land scandal" and finally brought down the government (one of the least corrupt governments thailand ever had, a real good one!). this guy is "old elite" (amart) pure. and backed by the most powerful people of thailand. he is just the front runner. decisions are made in the background.

thaksin. everybody knows about him, i don't need to explain much. his populist policies secured the votes from the poor people and farmers in the north / north-east. strangely. his programs for villages, his thb 30 health care scheme did not work in the time when he was pm, because the financing was missing, there was not enough money in the budgets to make things work! the implementation of many of his programs was done by later coup and post-coup (yellow!) governments, but he did what the dp could have done in the last 75 years. and. the people love him for that. that he moved his family members into all important key positions of the countries administration, economy, police, even with in the army. that's normal, other families are doing the same thing. but. he and his cronies brought the corruption to new levels we have never seen before in this country. and therefor he peed in the pockets of the old elite. stupid mistake. and because he is too dumb to understand that some political power games need time. he failed. now again with his sudden idea to widen the amnesty law to that extend that he could return to thailand. big mistake. he did not expect this extend of resistance. and now all doors are close for a long time again.

suthep and thaksin: both should be in jail. what suthep is doing right now is high treason, he tries to overthrow the government. it's also lèse-majesté, because the decree to hold elections on 02. 02. 14 was published in the royal gazette already. it's a decree from hrm the king! as smaller crimes we can observe the occupation of government buildings and institutions, breach of public peace, appeals to break laws (every day) etc. etc. etc. suthep should go to jail for the next 2000 years. he can meet thaksin there, and play chess. 24 hours a day. the thai's should feed both of them, but make sure that both never get out again. that would be a good solution for thailand!

that as a short overview about the background of the conflict right now, and the key figures.

giotto

Beer Monger

01-10-14, 06:44

Daddy,

Greetings, hope you are well.

GiottoThanks for your impartial assessment. Sounds like Suthep is the wild card and how the situation plays out will depend on his whims at the moment. Regardless, if the airport is open, I'll be flying in from SG on Thursday. If not, I'll hang around Singapore and JB. I've always felt any place you go is only as safe as you make it. Pay attention to your surroundings and don't stick your head out and you generally end up ok.

Giotto

01-10-14, 09:59

Thanks for your impartial assessment. …Beer Monger,

Impartial – I am not sure. But I doubt that a foreigner will ever fully understand what's going on in Thai politics.

I hear so many farang judging about Thai politics. Tourists are more yellow, based on the respect for HRM The King and the 'Democratic' in the party name 'Democratic Party'. Expats living here tend to at least understand the history of this conflict a bit more, changing the color to orange. And then of course those many expats siding with Thaksin, much more red than the reds. Usually more the low lives here.

Let's have a look at some statements here:

.

Shall the poor wait for mr anti foreigner Suthep to take away democracy from those he considers monkeys & set up his "peoples reform council" of China. Or fight for their right to vote for the Robin Hood of their choice.Yeah, 'mr anti foreigner Suthep', as if this were important right now. It's definitely not about us right now. I personally don't know whom Mr. Suthep considers to be a monkey. This are all the old stories told amongst expats for years (some members of the Bangkok middle class and the elite consider the people from Isaan to be monkeys, a brutal generalization, simply not true for the majority of the Thais) – all nonsense and not very helpful.

Thailand is now inching towards civil war.

The anti-government anti-democracy protestors on the streets (Yellow / PAD / Facists) are ulta-nationalists. They hate foreigners and constantly berate the foreign press for reporting them as anti-democracy and anti-democracy, but that is what they are.Who else than The Pro can write such exaggerated nonsense. The PAD basically does not exist any more. Fascists ... Again, it's not about foreigners right now. And if Nick Nostitz gets into trouble in the center of the demonstration – then it does not mean that all foreign journalists get into trouble there. Super Red Nick is sometimes asking for trouble – we all know that.

And no – those demonstrators are NOT 'ultra-nationalists'. There are basically four groups on the streets:

- around 30, 000 workers (palm-oil, rubber) from the deep South, Surat Thani, Suthep's battle troups.

- the old group of never-learning nationalists, but those are in the process of extinction.

- lots of [may be misguided] Bangkok middle class that is simply fed up with the incompetent Government.

- supports from the Southern Provinces, farmers, business owners, middle class of the South.

And then there is another important issue: the number of demonstrators. Suthep is talking about millions, the government about a few thousands. Both is of cause exaggerated – but one thing is very clear: Suthep DOES NOT HAVE the majority of Thais behind him. If there are sometimes 150, 000 – 200, 000 people on the streets – that's already a lot. The Bangkok Post calculated one of the big demonstrations and estimated 350, 000 demonstrators.

...
At this time there is a significant increase in the potential for shootings from "third hand" forces. These are retired army, retired police, militia etc. Where innocents will be shot so that blame can be put on the other side.Ahh, the old gossips and strategies again. Now you just need to bring in the 'men in black', and we are back in 2010. Bullshit!

...
The anti-government mobs want to turn support against the government in the western media so there is a chance as things get worse that some foreigners will be shot in order to grab headlines abroad. Likewise some of those against the anti-government mobs could target foreigners to put further pressure on the anti-government mobs by accusing them of targeting foreigners as they are ultra-nationalists.Aehhh? That's dumb nonsense.

...
The Dems have not won an election since '92. They have the support in BKK and the South, but that will not win them an election.Not entirely correct. The Dems did not even have strong support in BKK at the last elections. BKK was split between red and yellow.

If we foreigners try to understand this Thai political deadlock we should refrain from supporting all simple and / or dogmatic interpretations delivered from any of the parties:

- As long as vote buying persists elections do not reflect the real political will of the Thais (= Suthep's bullshit, justification to postpone the elections, which he cannot win. Vote buying is a common practice here from all political parties)

- Let's vote on 02. 02. 14, that's the democratic way of solving the crisis (= Yingluck, nonsense, nothing is solved, because a kind of dictatorship of the majority has been established here with the votes of the people from the North / North-East. It might look 'democratic', but it's to simple to understand it like this. There are lots of brain-washed rather uneducated people voting for red, and also those benefitting from government programs (eg. The rice scheme). With the votes of the North / North-East the reds can win all elections, for the next 1000 years. But – the North-East only contributes to less than 25 % of the GDP and less than 10 % of the tax income. There are really serious imbalances here.)

Next will be the Chrystal Ball.

Giotto

Rjsss212

01-10-14, 15:27

Next will be the Chrystal Ball.

GiottoTodays WSJ.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303393804579310222926026720

Giotto

01-10-14, 16:58

Daddy,

Though it's more difficult than ever before to predict how that situation on Monday and afterwards will develop here my attempt:

1) Strategy Suthep

Right now it's all about strategy. If you analyze the past weeks to find out how Suthep got there where he is now you will see that nothing of all this was really planned. 'Victory' over the Government was announced several times, but besides the parliament being dissolved and elections announced not much has happened. He promised the before the last few events already that everybody should go home if the target could not be reached, but he always stayed and developed new destructive ideas, proposed new upcoming events. It's pretty unpredictable what dumb idea he will develop next, but it is sure that he WILL DEVELOP ONE, whatever happens.

The only issue remaining on his target list right now is that Yingluck (Member of the Shinawatra family) resigns as caretaker Prime Minister. Everything else is unclear, including the question who will be caretaker PM thereafter, because the constitution does not provide any regulations for this case. He wants the election to be postponed, but how? The royal decree is there. The King has ordered elections, so – what do you want, Suthep? You really want to oppose The King?

Suthep is cornered, and everybody including many Senators and members of the caretaker Government try to find ways out for him without losing face! Nevertheless – a cornered Suthep is completely unpredictable, his normal brain structures are working quite strangely already, but under this stress, and with this possible loss of face – Suthep is definitely dangerous. He is an idiot – a complete idiot. In normal developed country he would sit in a psychiatric clinic. And now he is a cornered idiot – not good!

Therefore, right now he can only have ONE strategy: to provoke the military to stage a coup.

2) Strategy Government

Yingluck is caretaker PM, and by the order of her brother (Thaksin) from Dubai she will NOT STEP BACK a single mm any more. She will NOT resign as caretaker PM, because then Thailand would be in a unique unregulated (by the constitution) situation again, and in this situations usually the old elite struck some deals (a lot of money involved) to install a DP PM or – the military takes over. The red Government is still in power, they have offered new elections, but they have not moved out of any power position. If they did – the Shinawatra family would most likely face serious problems, there is no way that they can give this power position up without a major fight.

Besides all that: This government is elected by the majority of the Thais, and therefore it has some legitimacy. Much more legitimacy as Suthep will EVER have with his movement.

The strategy from Yingluck must be to avoid a military coup, and let the demonstrators do whatever they want. Any violence must be avoided. No parallel development to the demonstrations of 2010. Fuhuhuck yourself, Suthep, the caretaker government does business as usual.

That means that the Yingluck has basically ONE MAJOR problem right now – she MUST control the red shirts NOT the stage demonstrations as answer to the theatre that Mr. Suthep is right now staging here in Bangkok. And this is the unpredictable part of this game right now.

3) The Redshirts

The redshirts listened up to now, and they have not mobilized up to now. And if I write 'mobilized' I mean mobilized. If they decide to participate and stage their own demonstrations THEY WILL DWARF THE ANTI-GOVERNMENT DEMONSTRATION with one single event. The easily can do that. They can mobilize 500, 000 people coming to Bangkok within 3 days.

Now – the leadership of the redshirts – lets have a look.

Thida Thavornseth is in the driver seat right now, and she is a very clever woman. She know exactly what all this is about, and what she has to do, and what she cannot do. Her husband is Dr. Weng Tojirakarn. This man is also very very clever. He is one of the very old class fighters in the game, he was in the jungle already with Seksan, as a young man a communist, fighting with the Chinese against the military dictatorship in Thailand, before taking a deal (BTW. Installed by General Chawalit!) , returning into the normal life.

Then we have. Nattawut Saikua. He is a member of the Government now, and money is flowing into his pocket. Long time the right hand of Thaksin – he can be controlled from Dubai. Thaksin knows the game, so Nattawut will know it, too.

But now it comes, there is one weak part in the chain of the UDD leadership: Jatuporn Prompan. Jatuporn is – the Suthep of the redshirts. He is aggressive, emotional, difficult to control, not too clever (IQ somewhere between water buffalo and bull dog) – and completely unpredictable. But – he has the rhetorical capabilities of Adolf Hitler and Joseph Goebbels.

Nobody can control Jatuporn. He is an idiot – a complete idiot. In normal developed country he would sit in a psychiatric clinic. (I said that already. Somewhere. Hmmm).

4) The Redshirts and the Government

Now everybody think that the redshirts will understand the critical situation and back up the Government. And some will do – for sure. But, the redshirts are also not very happy about the Government. Let's take the rice farmers. Many of them did not get their promised 'gratifications' since October 2013 – they are preparing demonstrations AGAINST the Government now. And the government does not have the money to pay.

The attempt to grand amnesty to the DP government from 2010 (Abhisit and Suthep) was also not well received from the redshirts. Though the normal reds would have forgotten already, some leaders (Jatuporn!) insisted on clarification about what happened in 2010 and who is responsible for the 100 dead people.

The redshirts also don't like certain members of the Government – eg. Mr. Chalerm. Mr. Chalerm is one of the old Elite clever enough to immediately adjust his political color to changes in the Thai political party system. That's why he is a member of PT now. I think he was a member of ALL EXISTING Thai parties already – whenever he needed that. He is a police officer, and he is one who had to leave the country in the 90s because of 'not explainable orign of his wealth'. In short – he is a big pig! A dangerous ruthless unethical cockroach. And I understand every redshirt who does not understand, why this man is in the red PT Government. I could tell stories about Chalerm. Oh my god.

Coming back to the main issue: it's not sure now long the redshirts can tolerate the situation and the fucked-up PT Government, and when they decide to take things in their own hands. And then, then we will get real problems.

5) The Crystal Ball talks...

Two options:

A) The redshirts stay out of the game.

I personally hope this happens. Then – there will be no redshirts, there should not be any violence, nobody gets hurt – and after Monday is Tuesday! Suthep will run around like a tiger in the cage and think: What do I do now, the fucking redshirts did not show up?

He will try to instigate something (to make The Pro happy) but everybody will easily understand where that problems are coming from. To really create unrest and violence he needs the redshirts in the city close to his demonstration areas.

If the redshirts are clever – they will enjoy their holiday in Surat Thani! Because – nobody is there, they are all in Bangkok &61514; !

B) The redshirts stage demonstrations against Suthep in Bangkok.

Outcome is clear: Violence, warnings from Prayuth Chan-Ocha, and a military coup within days, when things escalate.

6) How long can it last?

Tja, strangely the second solution be) ends the problem faster &61514; . LOL. The military takes over, and Thailand returns to normal. Everybody blames the army, the US announce some sanctions, Suthep declares victory – and nothing changes in Thailand. In a few years we will try again then.

But – if the redshirts take their vacation and Jatuporn plays in the sandbox with The Pro. Then Suthep has to develop a new idea, because all his Bangkok Shutdown failed. But – he will have seriously annoyed a big number of his supporters (Bangkokians) , and he will lose support every day to come.

When will he stop? No way to predict that, but not before the upcoming elections in February. Until then we will have problems here in Bangkok.

Let's wait and see :):):) !

Giotto

Paul Kausch

01-10-14, 18:15

Daddy,

Though it's more difficult than ever before to predict how that situation on Monday and afterwards will develop here my attempt:

When will he stop? No way to predict that, but not before the upcoming elections in February. Until then we will have problems here in Bangkok.

Let's wait and see. !

GiottoYou are a fountainhead of information and analysis.

I have some questions.

What if the NACP does press charges again Yingluck and others in her government? Fourteen of the complaints against her have been accepted and 18 more are under investigation. If they're found guilty they are barred from holding office. What then?

Candidates are not registered in 95% of the districts, the threshold for holding an election. The election could be ruled invalid and cancelled, the EC is calling for this, then they could try to register more candidates. As it currently stands, even if the election is held 95% of parliament will not have been elected so it cannot be assembled. No government. What then?

The government simply doesn't have the money to make the rice payments, so far has failed at attempts to borrow the money and it is not clear if they will be able to do so under the circumstances. What if months from now there still have been no rice payments?

Daddy San

01-10-14, 19:22

Daddy,

Though it's more difficult than ever before to predict how that situation on Monday and afterwards will develop here my attempt:Thanks for your in-depth analysis.

At least now I know, why there is no telling how it will go.

I will miss our talks at the Bürgemeister table.

DS

Wolvenvacht

01-10-14, 21:05

(snip)

There are lots of brain-washed rather uneducated people voting for red, and also those benefiting from government programs (eg. The rice scheme). With the votes of the North / North-East the reds can win all elections, for the next 1000 years. But – the North-East only contributes to less than 25 % of the GDP and less than 10 % of the tax income. There are really serious imbalances here.

(snip) Uneducated people casting votes; people who have a vested interest to support one party, ... Isn't that so in all democracies?

Trashcanman77

01-11-14, 00:20

Giotto, great post!

Even if the red shirts stay out of the game, there could be violence from a "third party".

As you said, Suthep is an idiot. Maybe he could even hire some "third party" to let the violence escalate.

If there will be a coup due to violence, do you really think it will be over fast?

Don't you think the reds will fight back this time?

TConor

01-11-14, 01:19

Uneducated people casting votes; people who have a vested interest to support one party, . Isn't that so in all democracies?Look at the last 2 Presidential elections in the USA. Almost 50% of Americans don't pay any federal taxes and they can vote. They got what the deserve though, Ha! Ha! For the stupid voters who have no skin in the game. As was noted that's the democratic way. Once the pendulum swings far enough to the right or left it will come back the other way. Like the weather – it's a giant cycle.

Giotto

01-11-14, 02:38

You are a fountainhead of information and analysis.

I have some questions.

What if the NACP does press charges again Yingluck and others in her government? Fourteen of the complaints against her have been accepted and 18 more are under investigation. If they're found guilty they are barred from holding office. What then?Peter,

If you watch Thai politics and the sessions in parliament you will observe that you hardly see Yingluck. She is active in a way as head of the administration, but she does not get involved into legislation! That's how Thaksin protect the position of his sister. Clever strategy! It will be very difficult for the NACC to deveop a real case against Yingluck. If they can and Yingluck will be removed Suthep has won that game as described in my post below, and Thailand will fall into chaos. Nobody knows the legal situation of the caretaker PM resigns or is thrown out of office.

.

Candidates are not registered in 95% of the districts, the threshold for holding an election. The election could be ruled invalid and cancelled, the EC is calling for this, then they could try to register more candidates. As it currently stands, even if the election is held 95% of parliament will not have been elected so it cannot be assembled. No government. What then?Same problem! Another of Suthep's strategies that might work.

But some PT candidates are filing law suites to get registered. They will most likely win those cases, and then more 95% of the districts can vote.

.

The government simply doesn't have the money to make the rice payments, so far has failed at attempts to borrow the money and it is not clear if they will be able to do so under the circumstances. What if months from now there still have been no rice payments?The government can take a credit/bank loans if the election commission allows them to do so, and of the money is for an existing program (a program put into place BEFORE the care taker government was in place).

Now, every government (even a DP government if the power should change) has to fulfill the obligations the government before signed up for. They can change the law and reduce / cut the benefits for the rice farmers, but for the past they have to pay.

...

There is a certain light at the end of the tunnel. The people in the North / North-East are not so Thaksin and PT blind any more. Some of them start to see what's going on. And some of them also start to understand that the deadlock situation in the politics must be unlocked.

What I expect to happen in 2014/2015 is that some medium and leading party members from the DP and from PT leave their parties and form a new political movement. This movement could break the majority of both big blocks (DP did not have a majority since 1992, but theoretically it could have one) and governing without a 3rd political force will not be possible any more.

If this kind of compromising (DP and PT members joining in a new political movement is unthinkable right now) starts the necessary reforms will take place faster than anybody can foresee it.

Giotto