Thailand Politics

[Giotto]

the propaganda of our "democracy-lovers" never ends ...

the below mentioned article in "the japan times" is lousy. it does not even mention what the verdict of the constitutional court really was about:

...
the court judged that the transfer of thawil pliensri from the post of secretary general of the national security council (nsc) in 2011 had unduly paved way for the naming of pol gen preowpan damapong, who is related to yingluck, as national police chief.

pol gen preowpan, brother of khunying podjaman damapong, ex- spouse of yingluck's brother, former thai leader thaksin shinawatra, had been named national police chief in place of pol gen vichian podbhosri who had replaced thavil as chief of the nsc.
...

now - i fully agree with statements about the degeneration of this court towards a "yellow juristic coup making machine", but in this case the judgement was clear and ok, and not even the pt protested seriously (some bombs were thrown, let's take this as normal here in thailand).

the fashionable journalism shines over us, new york times and the economist know it all! the bad yellow establishment tries to overthrow the democracy because their party (the dp) cannot win elections, and they do it by all possible and impossible means. the poor red government was again and again forced out of office. and again and again a thaksin friendly party wins the elections ...

have we forgotten the origins of the actual eruption? have we forgotten the attempt of the government last year to rush through parliament a bill that would give the deposed prime minister amnesty and allow him to come home? have we forgotten the ruinous rice scheme, that on one hand creates massive budget problems, and on the other hands allows unknown levels of corruption based income redirection into the udd controlled trading and storage middle layer between the rice farmers and government?

when i stay in my house in ayutthaya the propaganda car from thaksins election machinery comes by twice a day. brain-washing slogans. twice a day. and the "democratic" red villages, in which it can cause serious problems to voice an red-opposing opinion ... all this reminds me a bit of a democracy construction made and controlled with a propaganda machinery designed by joseph goebbels - heil thaksin!

there was a readers comment to the "much appreciated" piece of the economist below. that was really good information for the readers, and this is why i will copy and paste it below:

quote...

this is the kind of one-dimensional western commentary that is probably the result of taksin's significant connections to the world's corporate elites and the activities of his ny pr and law firms.

to somehow paint the "red" politicians and leaders as the champions of democracy and the poor, and the loyalists as the corrupt vestiges of the past era is myopic at best and disingenuous at worst.

i've been living in thailand full time for the last 9 years and have seen most of the described events first hand. the situation is much more nuanced than the author reports.

every society has its elite classes. it is no different than any of the western democracies. the question is what is the elites' attitude towards the whole society. the traditional thai elites (the old money) had an attitude, probably derived from buddhism, governed by moderation, honor (face), and the long term stability of the system. even though corruption was and is endemic to thai society there were unwritten rules that one must take a little bit and share the rest.

when taksin (the new money) came on the scene he successfully introduced a new, much more destructive attitude of winner-take-all approach to politics and wealth. this attitude was perfected by the red politicians who mr. t put into power by unbridled, unapologetic, scorched-earth corruption interested only in extracting as much wealth out of the country as possible in as short time as possible. if one seriously looks at the track record of the successive red governments one can clearly see the trend of incompetence and corruption. all of the oft touted populist policies were either scrapped or failed but not before allowing their cronies to profit handsomely. none of them brought any kind of long term or sustainable relief to the poor majority that keep putting reds into power.

it's reminiscent of the poor white electorate who keeps voting for the us republican party even though that party hasn't and won't do anything for them besides the contrived culture war issues that really don't effect their every day lives. taksin is a shrewed and ruthless politician. he saw the traditional nationalistic elites lulled into complacency and mounted a political insurgency using his own billions and support from the western corporations who wanted nothing more then have their way with thailand. he implemented a few populist policies that actually helped the neglected poor in the provinces and masterfully used that to create a taksin-robyn-hood cult of personality. then he proceeded to [CodeWord123] (http://isgprohibitedwords.info?CodeWord=CodeWord123) and pillage the country until the military stepped in and removed him. the traditional ways of thai elites were too quaint for mr t who cared very little about sharing, honor, or preserving the system. the new charter was the direct response to the power excesses of the taksin years.

when using words like 'democracy' without caveats for the thai context the author is misleading the western audience who automatically conjure up the structures and values of their own democratic experience, which has nothing to do with how democracy operates in thailand. the traditional culture of patronage and reverence to social position is alive and well. the vast majority of electorate is very poor, uninformed, and all too easy to manipulate. vote buying at thb 500 ( $15) per vote is rampant and is usually done by the village head man. in the red strongholds it is actually dangerous for opposition candidates to campaign because of a real threat of physical violence. and since thai police are notoriously corrupt and are aligned with the red movement no opposition protection is possible. a new movement of the "red villages" takes this political entrenchment to its final conclusion. a whole village, under the "guidance" of the local red leaders, declares their allegiance to the red cause, no debate is possible, no dissent is tolerated. just add the little red book and the transformation is complete.

this is not a democracy. the system that keeps giving power to a demonstrably incompetent and corrupt government is clearly broken. the fiasco that is the rice scheme has made some dents in the taksin's cult of personality among the rice farmers who constitute a significant support group. but the country cannot wait until the rest of the uninformed and manipulated red supporters realize that they have been duped by the power hungry corrupt demagogues.

so what is the future of thai elites? one thing is for certain that there will be thai elites. the most important question is will they remain thai in spirit, care for the traditional values of moderation and honor, or will they be overrun by the red faux populist startups backed by the global corporate interests with the hunger for unchallenged power and quick personal enrichment to the detriment of the rest of the country. only time will tell, but judging by the article above it's clear which team the economist is cheering for.

...quote.

well said!

i think we deserve a bit more from those newspapers (new york times and the economist) than blindly (and desperately) calling for "democracy" but only scratching on the surface of the real problem. from the japan times i anyway don't expect much.


giotto

[PinkPearl]

Thai politics can be summed up in a nutshell. It's the evil empire vs the evil empire. So in the end, if there is ever a clear winner, or a partial winner, it will be a sure thing.

Thailand will remain the same same, but different, & the mongering paradise will continue unhindered.

The players will change, the old guys like Thaksin, Suthep etc will soon quit, retire or die, but the game will remain as it has been.

[The Pro]

Voranai is probably the most neutral writer the Bangkok Post has, he does not apologise for the Yellow or the Red shirts. Which is why he is one of the most respected writers.

Today marks a very important event, he has actually (although not directly) made reference to the struggle in Thailand being the old petticoat hangers on who control the PC, the Courts, the Senate, the Democrat Party who do not want the son to take over when the "old man" passes away.

And Thaksin and the majority of people of Thailand who want the son to take over. Which will mark the end of the Bangkok Elite having control over nearly all the wealth of Thailand. If the son takes over, the Bangkok Elite who have pillaged the riches of Thailand for their own benefit for decades would end up losing all their power.

This is the struggle on the streets now. Its nothing to do with corruption, its nothing to do with reform. Its all about being in power when the old man passes away to control what happens next.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/410362/thaksin-real-war

I think we all can guess who the "old man" is who is very old and will pass away before too many more years pass, and who the son is.

[The Pro]

An interesting read. People are getting more and more open about it:

http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/5/thailand-redshirtspeopleasdemocraticreformcommitteeroyalistmonar.html

[The Pro]

Yes, the headline is correct. The "we don't want an election as we support the PDRC" EC are angry that a program was on TV about the need for elections. LOL.

Election Commissioner Angered By Pro-Election Lecture.

http://en.khaosod.co.th/detail.php?newsid=1400421655&typecate=06&section=

[Paul Kausch]

The AP announced the army has declared martial law.

http://news.yahoo.com/thailands-army-declares-martial-law-224020589.html

For the last few days I've been reading and hearing this was eminent. Still comes as a bit of a shock. The next few days and weeks could be interesting. I'm sure I'll get an advisory from the USA State Dept. Will be interesting to see what they have to say. Will post it here.

Still looking forward to my trip. I leave for BKK in 21 days and 10 hours.

[Paul Kausch]

The army is stating this is not a coup. They are not seizing control of the government. I wonder if the senate is about to announce the appointed government and the army is getting ready to deal with the red shirts' response to the announcement.

[Paul Kausch]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/410719/army-invokes-martial-law

[Dbuko]

I'm sure I'll get an advisory from the USA State Dept. Will be interesting to see what they have to say. Will post it here.

Still looking forward to my trip. I leave for BKK in 21 days and 10 hours.Thank you much for the update and link. I appreciate your enthusiasm and optimism. I look forward to yours and everyone's reports in the near future that mongering is proceeding uninhibited on the ground.

Thank you also for everyone else's reassurances that tourism and especially p4 p should be unaffected. Let us all hope you are right and that Paul Kausch's prediction that the marital law is a temporary measure to shore up an incipient new government, to be announced soon, all of which may signal a potential return to stability.

[Paul Kausch]

The red and yellow shirts' first reactions are encouraging. The PRDC announced it has cancelled its rallies, while Jatuporn, leader of the red shirts, has ordered his members to cooperate with the army and stay put in their encampment. He also said he was not surprised by the martial law declaration. Was he, and Suthep, told about this in advance? Jatuporn hasn't said anything about cancelling the counter-rally he had planned for the weekend, but as apparently the PRDC has cancelled its rally, it will be hard to stage a counter-rally when there is no rally to counter.

Obviously, much happens behind the scene that few people know about and those who do don't talk. Could this actually be a step in the right direction? I'd like to believe that, but fear something will happen to start an escalating chain of very bad events. Hope I'm wrong.

[Giotto]

Expect the unexpected:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Army-chief-declares-martial-law-30234047.html

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Red-shirts-start-returning-home-after-troops-block-30234052.html

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Army-chief-orders-protesters-not-to-move-out-of-ra-30234056.html

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/PDRC-to-cancel-march-Tuesday-30234048.html


Giotto

[Paul Kausch]

Here is the relevant section of an email I received a short while ago.

This message is to inform U.S. citizens that the Royal Thai Army has invoked martial law throughout Thailand, effective 3:00 AM Tuesday May 20, 2014. According to a Royal Thai Army announcement, the military has assumed responsibility for maintaining peace and order. Martial law gives the military certain expanded authorities to ensure public security and safety. According to media reports, Thailands constitution and caretaker government remain in place. U.S. citizens are advised to stay alert, exercise caution, and monitor media coverage. You are advised to avoid areas where there are protest events, large gatherings, or security operations and follow the instructions of Thai authorities.

U.S. citizens are cautioned that even demonstrations that are meant to be peaceful can turn confrontational and escalate into violence. You should avoid protest sites, demonstrations, and large gatherings. Be alert and aware of your surroundings and pay attention to local news media reports. You should allow extra time when travelling throughout the city or to/from airports. Consider using public transportation.

Note that they are not telling people to change their travel plans.

[Paul Kausch]

So far I've read that Prayuth has disbanded Capo, surrounded the police headquarters and seized control of all TV and radio stations.

Here's what the Bangkok Post reports about why martial law was declared at this time.

"But the last straw for the army commander was the announcement by the PDRC it would launch yet another 'final battle' this coming weekend to culminate in the "decisive battle" next Monday. That was used to motivate the rival red-shirts of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), which called a major rally to duel its rivals.".

The army is in control and the caretaker government is still "functions." I'm not sure what that means considering the army is now in charge. Apparently Prayuth's goal is to ensure there is no more bloodshed and to convince Suthep and Jatuporn (Thaksin) that neither will get what he wants. How will he "encourage" them to compromise?

[Member #4698]

"Thailand's Army Chief Declares Martial Law Nationwide.

Army Says Declaration Is 'Not a Coup,' Announces Censorship of Media Deemed Inflammatory.

Some analysts question whether the army's maneuver foreshadows more severe measures, such as the appointment of a new, interim government. Since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932, Thailand's armed forces have staged 18 coups, most recently in 2006.

Paul Chambers, a professor and military analyst at Thailand's Chiang Mai University, said Thailand's martial law act of 1914 provides the army with sweeping powers, effectively giving the army chief control of the kingdom without the assent of the prime minister.

"Gen. Prayuth can now say he has not carried out a coup," Mr. Chambers said, adding that the army chief could use the cover of the 1914 act as a means to bring in a 'neutralist' prime minister or step in himself.".

From WSJ: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303468704579572551371553842?mod=WSJ_hp_RightTopStories&mg=reno64-wsj.

[Paul Kausch]

"Thailand's Army Chief Declares Martial Law Nationwide.

Paul Chambers, a professor and military analyst at Thailand's Chiang Mai University, said Thailand's martial law act of 1914 provides the army with sweeping powers, effectively giving the army chief control of the kingdom without the assent of the prime minister.

"Gen. Prayuth can now say he has not carried out a coup," Mr. Chambers said, adding that the army chief could use the cover of the 1914 act as a means to bring in a 'neutralist' prime minister or step in himself.".I've read and heard some of the things Chambers has had to say. He sounds like an intellectual, but I think he's really a spokesman for Pheu Thai wrapped in academic garb. Not surprising considering where he holds his appointment. His statements sounds like they could be designed to instigate violence. Of course Chambers wants to alarm people about the declaration of martial law. Martial law works against Thaksin. His Capo is disbanded. His police force is neutralized. The army has seized control of TV and radio and is controlling content. His crony government is still officially in office, but the army is in control. He's power hungry and his power has been reduced.

This could be a good development. I see no reason to believe Prayuth wants the army to take over the government. That didn't work in 2007, as he saw first hand. I believe him when he says he does not want a military junta. What he has said all along is that he will act if it is necessary to prevent significant lose of life, which was very likely over the next few days and weeks.

Allowing either Thaksin or Suthep to prevail is not a solution. Thaksin is a crook and an egomaniac. Suthep is a crook and a madman. The leaders on both sides want to install their own corrupt regimes and run the country for their and their cronies personal gains. The only hope for a better future is to find another way. Will the country be able to find a better way? I'm not holding my breath.

[The Pro]

I would not get too excited. The caretaker government (PTP) wanted there to be Martial Law. The PDRC wanted a coup.

We have Martial Law. So at the moment PTP are winning and PDRC are losing.

This is from the 16th of May where the government people say they want Martial Law to be in effect so elections can then be held.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Surapong-voices-support-for-martial-law-30233791.html

Surapong said he would like the Army chief to take action against leaders of the People's Democratic Reform Committee, adding that troops are also officers who could make arrests.

He said the government's opponents would like to encourage the military leaders to stage a coup but the top brass has made it clear that it would not seize power.

"But they may control the situation to prevent violence by declaring martial law, which is not a coup," Surapong said.

"If martial law is declared, the military will run the operation to maintain security and the CAPO will not get involved. And I believe that if the martial law is declared nationwide, the election can be held."

[Member #4698]

Allowing either Thaksin or Suthep to prevail is not a solution. Thaksin is a crook and an egomaniac. Suthep is a crook and a madman. The leaders on both sides want to install their own corrupt regimes and run the country for their and their cronies personal gains. The only hope for a better future is to find another way. Will the country be able to find a better way? I'm not holding my breath.I agree and I think that's the reason General Prayuth stepped in. I think he is fed up with both sides and sees himself as the one leader strong enough to take the country through this troubled impass. We will see what we will see. But Marshall Law surprised me. I thought Thailand was much closer to it in January when nothing happened. I thought things were relatively calm now. Maybe the General knew something was up and acted to preempt. I don't know. But after taking such a major step as Marshall Law, I can't see the General then handing over power to another neutral and weak caretaker prime minister and going through the same old malarkey of elections again where we all know the outcome. I think he intends to run the country and that therefor this is a coup. Then again, who knows?

[Traveler1234]

Finally the long awaited military intervention, aka 'coup'. That's when the parents step in when the children misbehave and can't make up on their own. It is now entirely safe to resume normal life!

[Giotto]

I would not get too excited. The caretaker government (PTP) wanted there to be Martial Law. The PDRC wanted a coup.

We have Martial Law. So at the moment PTP are winning and PDRC are losing.
...
I agree. The big winner right now is Thaksin.

Surapong Tovichakchaikul (on 16.05.14) and Thaksin (yesterday on Twitter) predicted that the army would enforce martial law.


...
Surapong said he would like the Army chief to take action against leaders of the People's Democratic Reform Committee, adding that troops are also officers who could make arrests.
...
I am not so sure that the leadership of the PDRC will be arrested now. As a woman from Isaan told the press: "Why does the army provide the ladder now for Suthep to climb down?"

Honestly - I scratch my head to make any sense of all this nonsense happening on the political scene for more than 6 months now.

Besides the fact that the yellows failed several times in the last 2 years to move things in their direction - this Suthep PDRC idiocy is a major [and may be final disaster] for that faction.

Let's look back to the second half of 2013: The government had tried to change the constitution to get rid of the appointed senators (and failed), the amnesty law was pushed trough parliament (and failed) - and the rice farmers were not paid for their rice harvests over a longer time period...

ALL ACES of the political card game were in the hands of the yellow's!!!

They just had to lean back, smile, talk nice to the people - and wait how the political suicide of the Thaksin government would further materialize. But instead of this - they had no patience and sent the brain-dead moron Suthep into the race (I doubt that somebody sent him - may be the royalist geriatric department called "privy council", average age > 80 - I think he did this on his own and surprised everybody with his dumb action.)

This is a moronic tactic. Suicidal strategy for the yellow's. Thaksin suddenly only had to sit and to wait...

As for Prayuth's martial law - makes no clear sense either ... but ...

As we all know Prayuth is the right hand man (wing-man) of the Queen. But - the queen is sick and out of the political race (stroke last year, motion control problems, cannot really talk ). For that the one option of the succession battle is very unlikely now - the option that the Queen will be regent for a future King who is now the son of the C)*(P. This was basically what the involvement of the Queen in politics was all about after she decided NOT to support her son for being the future king any more.

With the Queen being sick Gen Prayuth has no superior he is taking orders/directives from. That might be a reason that he acted that late, despite lot's of the superior generals of the Thai military were pushing for a military intervention for months before.

As it was correctly mentioned here somewhere - this ongoing quarrel is only a battle, not the war. The war is very very serious. The war is about avoiding for whatever it costs to have the duo Thaksin - C)*(P take over the power in Thailand. This is a serious thread for the country. And not only royalists, privy council or military leaders are trying to do anything to avoid this to happen: every serious business leader in the country is scared of this possible outcome, besides those mafiosi and thugs that will benefit of that. And there are lots of them.

And though I have doubts about the stability of this partnership (Thaksin - C)*(P) and I believe that both don't trust each other at all and will engage into an immediate fight after the initial / final event really occurs - if I compare Thaksin's strategy and performance right now to the yellow's actions (Suthep's PDRC adventure) then Thaksin definitely deserves to win this war. Very sad development for Thailand. But Thaksin's opponents are simply not very clever.

Coming back to the "but" ... I only have two ideas why Prayuth stages his semi-coup right now:

- we could get some serious health news from the palace in the days to come -
- Prayuth really believes that he can force the two parties to talk (after the option he supported is definitely NOT available any more)

Let's wait and see.

Btw., I was out there today, bank business, some drinks, dinner ... all normal. Don't worry!



Giotto

[Paul Kausch]

I agree. The big winner right now is Thaksin.

Surapong Tovichakchaikul (on 16.05.14) and Thaksin (yesterday on Twitter) predicted that the army would enforce martial law. Of course Thaksin knew this was coming, as did Suthep. Last week Prayuth told the world this was coming. Then just before his announcement he told both sides what he was going to do and when.

I don't see how Thaksin benefits from this; and frankly I have read and watched everything I can find on the internet, and I have yet to find even one "expert" who does not think this is bad to very bad for Thaksin, whom every one of these experts claim is strongly disliked by Prayuth. It is clear, no matter what Prayuth says about this not being a coup, he now runs the country. The new caretaker government has lost what little power it had.


I am not so sure that the leadership of the PDRC will be arrested now. As a woman from Isaan told the press: "Why does the army provide the ladder now for Suthep to climb down?" Of course not. Why do you think Suthep said he would turn himself in?


Honestly - I scratch my head to make any sense of all this nonsense happening on the political scene for more than 6 months now.

Besides the fact that the yellows failed several times in the last 2 years to move things in their direction - this Suthep PDRC idiocy is a major (and may be final disaster) for that faction.

Let's look back to the second half of 2013: The government had tried to change the constitution to get rid of the appointed senators (and failed), the amnesty law was pushed trough parliament (and failed) - and the rice farmers were not paid for their rice harvests over a longer time period...

ALL ACES of the political card game were in the hands of the yellow's!!!

They just had to lean back, smile, talk nice to the people - and wait how the political suicide of the Thaksin government would further materialize. But instead of this - they had no patience and sent the brain-dead moron Suthep into the race (I doubt that somebody sent him - may be the royalist geriatric department called "privy council", average age > 80 - I think he did this on his own and surprised everybody with his dumb action.)

This is a moronic tactic. Suicidal strategy for the yellow's. Thaksin suddenly only had to sit and to wait... The amnesty bill was a miscalculation, but the delayed rice payments did not become a problem until Yingluck became a caretaker. Had she not been reduced to caretaker status she could have borrowed money to pay the rice farmer. With money in their pocket they would have soon forgotten about the amnesty bill and Thaksin would have solidified his base. Then they would have moved on the infrastructure projects and the same graft and corruption that was the hallmark of the rice scheme would have started, only with far more money to steal. As long as Thaksin controlled the government he held most of the cards. Neutering the government took away many of his cards.


As for Prayuth's martial law - makes no clear sense either ... but ...

As we all know Prayuth is the right hand man (wing-man) of the Queen. But - the queen is sick and out of the political race (stroke last year, motion control problems, cannot really talk ). For that the one option of the succession battle is very unlikely now - the option that the Queen will be regent for a future King who is now the son of the C)*(P. This was basically what the involvement of the Queen in politics was all about after she decided NOT to support her son for being the future king any more.

With the Queen being sick Gen Prayuth has no superior he is taking orders/directives from. That might be a reason that he acted that late, despite lot's of the superior generals of the Thai military were pushing for a military intervention for months before.

As it was correctly mentioned here somewhere - this ongoing quarrel is only a battle, not the war. The war is very very serious. The war is about avoiding for whatever it costs to have the duo Thaksin - C)*(P take over the power in Thailand. This is a serious thread for the country. And not only royalists, privy council or military leaders are trying to do anything to avoid this to happen: every serious business leader in the country is scared of this possible outcome, besides those mafiosi and thugs that will benefit of that. And there are lots of them.

And though I have doubts about the stability of this partnership (Thaksin - C)*(P) and I believe that both don't trust each other at all and will engage into an immediate fight after the initial / final event really occurs - if I compare Thaksin's strategy and performance right now to the yellow's actions (Suthep's PDRC adventure) then Thaksin definitely deserves to win this war. Very sad development for Thailand. But Thaksin's opponents are simply not very clever.

Coming back to the "but" ... I only have two ideas why Prayuth stages his semi-coup right now:

- we could get some serious health news from the palace in the days to come -
- Prayuth really believes that he can force the two parties to talk (after the option he supported is definitely NOT available any more)

Let's wait and see. Prayuth's move may not make sense to us because there are undoubtedly many important factors we are unaware of. For example, perhaps he knew a major escalation of the violence was about to happen. Perhaps he and some key people had finally come to an agreement on the next steps. Perhaps something we could never imagine has transpired.


Btw., I was out there today, bank business, some drinks, dinner ... all normal. Don't worry! For the time being at least this should calm things down. But I feel like a very big shoe is about to drop.

[El Frances]

Here is my interpretation of recent events.

Preliminar remark: all the yellow players are coordinated like fingers of the same hand. I don't think there is any opposition between Suthep and the others: dems, nominated bodies, etc... Suthep is playing two roles. The first is to provide an excuse to the EC and others to delay elections as long as there is trouble in the streets. The second is, because of his extreme positions, to make other more moderate yellow positions to look like middle of the road and compromise proposals. For example Abhisit's proposal was more or less the same as Suthep's (nominated interim government to conduct reform) but Abhisit could pretend it was a compromise because Suthep aggressively rejected it. Same for the proposal by senate's nominated members, which is also a nominated interim govt. I think Suthep is just playing the role of the bad guy, but it's all coordinated with the others.

The main obstacle of the nomination of an interim government by the senate was the threat from red shirt protesters. That's where the army plays its role. By declaring martial law, they don't technically do a coup and don't bear legal risks. On the other hand, the senate is now free to get rid of the remaining caretaker government with the support of the charter court and nominate an interim government to implement reform before elections. If the red shirt violently protest, they will be blocked by the army, which will "neutrally" prevent any violence from both reds and PDRC. If the red shirts succeed in protesting, they will just further delay elections and allow more reform (which probably means more power for nominated people and less for elected people).

[Traveler1234]

Ever hear the phrase: Armchair quarterback? Quintessential American slang.

[El Frances]

Ever hear the phrase: Armchair quarterback? Quintessential American slang.Of course we are armchair quarterbacks! But it's fun to make scenarii and then see what will really happen.

More news (Nation Thailand): "Election Commission (EC) secretary general Puchong Nutrawong said the Army had told him that if the next general election was likely to result in bloodshed, or would be too difficult to arrange, the EC should drop it."

[Paul Kausch]

Here is my interpretation of recent events.I don't know if you are right, but it makes sense. I am inclined to be believe that at this time there is a united opposition, united by a common hatred for Thaksin. Seems Suthep is the opposition's public face and mouthpiece. He does a good job of playing the part of a fanatic. Perhaps he's not acting. I suspect others behind the scene play a major and perhaps greater role in planning. Who did the government arrest and desperately try to keep in jail only to be thwarted by the court? Why was he so important and apparently a more feared opponent than Suthep who has been allowed to roam freely?

Were this a tennis match at the end of last week the opposition had won every game in the first set. The coup, excuse me, martial law decree was match point. One set to zero opposition. And if this were a tennis match, there are at least two more sets to play.

[Paul Kausch]

Ever hear the phrase: Armchair quarterback? Quintessential American slang.An armchair quarterback is someone who watches something and believes he could do it better than the players. El Francis wasn't being an armchair quarterback, assuming he is who you are referring to. He was trying to make sense out political events in Thailand. Figuring this out does have practical value. If one had anticipated the decree and placed carefully times options on the SET index, money could be made.

[Paul Kausch]

Prayuth tightens the screw.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/410841/prayuth-orders-newspaper-censorship

[Traveler1234]

An armchair quarterback is someone who watches something and believes he could do it better than the players. Or someone who sees an event and then pontificates as if he knew the in/out of why it occurred, etc. and even tries to predict future events.....



Figuring this out does have practical value. If one had anticipated the decree and placed carefully times options on the SET index, money could be made.

Anyone with any common sense knew that eventually it would reach a point where the military would need to intervene. It was merely a matter of 'when'.

ISG is a great site for info on mongering. And many of the members are quite savvy and intelligent. But as your source of political analysis for investments? Come on Paul, I know you have a Ph.D but that's even a stretch for you...or using another sports metaphor, coming straight from right field?

[Paul Kausch]

ISG is a great site for info on mongering. And many of the members are quite savvy and intelligent. But as your source of political analysis for investments? Come on Paul, I know you have a Ph.D but that's even a stretch for you...or using another sports metaphor, coming straight from right field?Should have used a smiley to make it clear that was not to be taken seriously. Who, other than someone with inside information, could have known exactly when the SET would drop; and then that person would have had to know exactly when to change from short to long to catch the rapid rebound. I contribute as much as anyone to the Politics thread, but I don't consider it a good source for Thai political news.

I think ISG is a good place to exchange information on mongering. I also find some of the posts more entertaining than informative. My Ph.D. Is in statistics not political science or SE Asian studies. One might say my comments on Thai politics come from the spectator stands beside the first base foul line.

[Giotto]

Of course Thaksin knew this was coming, as did Suthep. Last week Prayuth told the world this was coming. Then just before his announcement he told both sides what he was going to do and when.

I don't see how Thaksin benefits from this; and frankly I have read and watched everything I can find on the internet, and I have yet to find even one "expert" who does not think this is bad to very bad for Thaksin, whom every one of these experts claim is strongly disliked by Prayuth. It is clear, no matter what Prayuth says about this not being a coup, he now runs the country. The new caretaker government has lost what little power it had.
...
Peter Kausch,

LOL. There are so many "experts" out there ...

Thaksin is the winner of the ongoing development. Even if we get an appointed PM for some months. The medium term outcome will be an election and another huge victory for a Thaksin supporting party - and then the PM job will be back in his control. On the longer term the game looks anyway good for him, as explained in a post below.

What I can feel here in Bangkok when I talk to people is:

- right at the beginning of the PDRC demonstrations the support was there, people were fed up with the red government,

- the longer the demonstrations lasted, and the more stupid it turned out (Bangkok Shutdown etc)., the more the support faded away,

- in general Suthep has NOT MUCH support for his ideas to appoint a PM and bypass the constitution in the Bangkok middle class,

- yellow people around here turned into orange during the past few months,

- out there in the North / North-East the unhappy red supporters (rice farmers) were driven back into the red movement,

- the more the army gets involved the more the red shirts will be unified and will even get more support,

This is a strategic disaster for the yellow movement, and if somebody thinks that all this is coordinated then

- the coordinator should be fired because of proven incompetence,

- somebody should tell me WHO coordinates this (and please no standard answers like "elite", "amart").

Look at the players:

- two very sick Majesties,

- a geriatric clinic full of consultants,

- the army unwilling to stage a coup because of several reasons (having learnt a lesson from 2006, water-melon soldiers etc).

Who pulls the strings?


Giotto

[Paul Kausch]

Peter Kausch,

Thaksin is the winner of the ongoing development. Even if we get an appointed PM for some months. The medium term outcome will be an election and another huge victory for a Thaksin supporting party - and then the PM job will be back in his control. On the longer term the game looks anyway good for him, as explained in a post below.

- somebody should tell me WHO coordinates this (and please no standard answers like "elite", "amart").

- the army unwilling to stage a coup because of several reasons (having learnt a lesson from 2006, water-melon soldiers etc).

GiottoGotto,

With all due respect, I don't find your previous post persuasive. That's just my personal opinion, which together with THB2300 will get you 2 hours of FS at an oily on Soi 24.

Eventually there will be an election. I think it will only come after there have been more reforms that will make it even easier to thwart and topple any future government; and overthrowing the previous government sure wasn't that hard. The opposition hasn't come this far to see all they've accomplished (ha ha) undone by an election.

I couldn't tell you who is coordinating this mess. The current situation isn't a result of the brilliance of the opposition. It's because Thaksin is an even bigger blunderer.

The army has staged a coup. Of course they're denying this, claiming they've only declared martial law, for the good of the nation and the king. But under martial law what limits Prayuth? It seem the rules are being created on the fly; and should someone challenge the rules, what will happen to that person?

Will this get worse before it gets better? I think so. Thaksin's enemies have no margin for error. If they push things too far it will blow up.

Thaksin's enemies are determined to destroy him. I don't see Thaksin giving up. That is a dangerous situation.

Paul.

[Wolvenvacht]

It all makes me think of an old saying "Never attribute to malice that which can be attributed to stupidity". The whole situation seems so haphazard and ill coordinated, that one starts to think there must be a subtle mastermind pulling the strings of the puppets on the stage.

[Paul Kausch]

It all makes me think of an old saying "Never attribute to malice that which can be attributed to stupidity". The whole situation seems so haphazard and ill coordinated, that one starts to think there must be a subtle mastermind pulling the strings of the puppets on the stage.Well said!

If the Bangkok elite are the current generation of the aristocratic families who ran Thailand for centuries it appears they may have been inbreeding for generations and we are witnessing the results. As for Thaksin, he's an egomaniac. What can you expect from the likes of him?

If the gods and goddesses are pulling the strings of the puppets in a grand play, it is a tragic-comedy and they have a warped sense of humor.

I just listened to an interview with one of the CNBC anchors who is in Bangkok. One of his remarks I found most funny is that the young Thai ladies are running around the city taking selfies with soldiers they think are handsome; and there is a website titled tweetmehandsomesoldier. Seeking Sanook, even during a coup, ah-hum-uh, excuse me, martial law.

[The Pro]

Essential reading as things progress.

This from Dec 2013. Keep an eye on the names talked about in the days ahead, a Mr Prawit being the big name.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/13/us-thailand-protest-military-idUSBRE9BC0PB20131213?irpc=932

[El Frances]

I will go on with my armchair quarterback thoughts... This political story is so facinating, it's like a TV serie with daily episodes. I think I could write a PhD in political science with just one year's events analysis.

I agree that the "yellows" are desperate, that they have little support from the public opinion, etc... As explained by Giotto. But:

- they have nothing to loose because they will never be elected anyway, so if they fail, the result will not be worse as if they hadn't tried anything.

- that they encountered limited success so far doesn't mean it's not formally or informally coordinated.

Personnally I don't believe in coincidence:

- Suthep is creating continuous disruption so that elections can be delayed and that "political turmoil" due to conflict between two parties (but in fact it's only one party conflicting) justifies other solutions than just new elections.

- the charter court and the NACC have the job of creating a "political vacuum" (of course, they have to play softly, they cannot look too unbiased, so there are limits). We don't know yet if they can get rid of the remaining caretaker government, but if there is any possibilty, they will do it.

- in order to end "political turmoil", and eventually "political vacuum", self-calling middlemen (but always yellow, I.e. Abhisit, nominated senate members, the Army...)) propose compromise solutions between the two conflicting parties, which inevitably are a nominated interim government doing reforms before elections (which can be endlessly delayed by EC if necessary, or canceled by the CC).

- the Army establishes martial law only when the red shirts really become threatening to any nominated interim government initiative.

- etc...

Of course they are also subject to internal and international political pressure that may prevent them to do so.

So I cannot believe there isn't a coordination of any form between them.

If they succeed what can they do? "reform" was never clearly explicited but that's what I was able to read between lines:

- give more power to independant organisations composed of nominated members, so that the next government will need to ask their permission for everything.

- reduce the power / budget of the central government and give the power / budget to regions. They know they will not dominate the country, but they can control the center and the south. Moreover, as the state budget will be limited the reds will not be able to subsidise anymore the poor regions.

- introduce a quota of nominated members (=yellow) in the parliament, as they already did in the senate, in order to compensate their failure at elections. Not sure they will dare to do it.

P.S. ISG is great for political discussions because, unlike Thaivisa or Bangkok Post, it is not polluted by self-appointed community managers who continuously overload forums with political propaganda.

[Traveler1234]

My Ph.D. Is in statistics not political science or SE Asian studies. Mine is but I refrain from flaunting it! ;)

Experience tells me to listen to the locals on the ground [case in point, Giotto is excellent source!] , not the ones that read the blogs, BBC, CNN, or whatever....

[Giotto]

Gotto,

With all due respect, I don't find your previous post persuasive. That's just my personal opinion, which together with THB2300 will get you 2 hours of FS at an oily on Soi 24.

Eventually there will be an election. I think it will only come after there have been more reforms that will make it even easier to thwart and topple any future government; and overthrowing the previous government sure wasn't that hard. The opposition hasn't come this far to see all they've accomplished (ha ha) undone by an election.
...
Paul,

All good! I don't want to persuade you of anything. I just write what I observe and experience here, and the conclusions I make of it.

Here is a piece for you:

http://www.cablegatesearch.net/search.php?q=09bangkok2967

This is one of the leaked cables of the American ambassador John back to the US government, dated 01.09.2011, titled:

THAILAND: CIRCLES OF INFLUENCE INSIDE THE INSTITUTION OF THE MONARCHY IN KING BHUMIBOL'S TWILIGHT

You find here a list of the major players of the yellow elite, "ammart" or with a bit different interpretation also called "ang barami".

Just add up the ages of all mentioned people here and devide them through the number of people, and you will most likely get an average age of 80 + ! The yellow elite is dying! There are not many yellow leaders left that could really coordinate a major attempt to overthrow the red government AND install a stabile yellow government for at least a year or 2. This is what you see right now. The yellow actions are disastrous strategic failures. There is no coordination, there is no concept, there is no thought-through plan.

The "armchair quarterback" journalists from well respected papers like The New York Times and The Economist (and the know-it-all Crispin) still write about the ammart as if they were politically active like 20 years ago. But this is not the case! The coup in 2006 was basically Gen. Prems coup. There was also not a major political movement behind it, otherwise it had not failed so badly! That time Prem was around 84 - now he is 92! He is busy with consulting monks in temples to prepare his reincarnation. He does not stage coups any more! The ammart is dying!

As for the Martial Law you call coup - people are sitting in pubs and restaurants, discussing what is going on, most of them (I guess 3/4) appreciate the army having declared martial law! They smile, business as usual, they go to work, and daily life is normal as every day ... and I remember 2006, when there was a curfew at 10 pm, and tanks were parked here and there, and soldiers were patrolling in Soi 33 - and NOBODY WAS ON THE STREET (though that coup was bloodless, too). It was scary at night in the roads without any people. There is a slight difference between THIS martial law and the 2006 coup!

The people (yellow, orange and / or red) have send ONE VERY CLEAR message to all players: They don't want any measures to happen outside of the actual constitutional framework! The reds never liked this constitution, but every second sentence right now refers to it and requests elections. The yellows wrote this constitution and realize some deficits and flaws now, but still THEY DID NOT AUTHORIZE SUTHEP to go for an appointed government! Suthep lost step by step the support of most of his initial fans because of his annoying attitude to speak as the mouthpiece of "THE PEOPLE" and request the installation of a non-constitutional government. The majority of the yellows start to understand democracy, and they simply DO NOT SUPPORT THE PDRC! This is a very good development for Thailand!

I look at the stock market. And I don't see it crashing! This is another indicator that the actual development is not really considered to be too bad for Thailand. There is hope ...

Right now - let's watch Gen. Prayuth, the lonely queen's man, the man I called "falcon" years ago (and I compared him to Adolf Hitler), the bulldog, the man in permanent trouble on press conferences. And let's hope for the best - hopefully I was wrong!


Giotto

[El Frances]

Essential reading as things progress.

This from Dec 2013. Keep an eye on the names talked about in the days ahead, a Mr Prawit being the big name.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/13/us-thailand-protest-military-idUSBRE9BC0PB20131213?irpc=932Very interesting article. Until now it happened the way it has been anticipated in this article from Dec 13th 2013. Let's see if Thailand will get Prawit as interim PM. Hmmm... Maybe he doesn't look neutral enough.

This one is also interesting:
http://asiancorrespondent.com/117256/thailand-who-is-backing-suthep-and-what-do-they-want/

[Giotto]

Very interesting article. Until now it happened the way it has been anticipated in this article from Dec 13th 2013. Let's see if Thailand will get Prawit as interim PM. Hmmm... Maybe he doesn't look neutral enough.Guys, guys, guys,

That's now very new. Reuters - of course ...

Prawit and Anupong - that's basically the line of army leaders before Gen. Prayuth. Does somebody remember that Anupong was called a watermelon because he long time refused to order the army to interfere at the 2010 red shirt demonstrations?

Prawit was defense minister of the Abhisit government. And the mentor of Anupong. Both are carrier soldiers and not politicians.

Suthep has MUCH BETTER connections that those two, and both of them are for sure not dangerous.

Prawit pops up as a possible interim PM for years now, same as Anand Panyarachun. There was a serious attempt to remove the PPP prime minister "pigface" Samak and replace him with Prawit, instigated from a privy council member Siddhi. Read about it!

Both Prawit and Anupong are soldiers and not yellow strongmen or demagogues.


Giotto

[Giotto]

You don't even need Reuters to read speculations like below.

Even the "heavily biased Bangkok Post" (The Pro) wrote about this constellation already in December 2013:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/print/384364/


Giotto

[Paul Kausch]

Paul,

All good! I don't want to persuade you of anything. I just write what I observe and experience here, and the conclusions I make of it.Giotto, I do appreciate your posts. Some of your early ones, when all this trouble started helped my understanding.


Here is a piece for you:

http://www.cablegatesearch.net/search.php?q=09bangkok2967

This is one of the leaked cables of the American ambassador John back to the US government, dated 01.09.2011, titled:

THAILAND: CIRCLES OF INFLUENCE INSIDE THE INSTITUTION OF THE MONARCHY IN KING BHUMIBOL'S TWILIGHT

I've seen and read this in several places. Wouldn't it be fascinating to be able the intercept and read all the cables going to and from the USA embassy.


As for the Martial Law you call coup - people are sitting in pubs and restaurants, discussing what is going on, most of them (I guess 3/4) appreciate the army having declared martial law! They smile, business as usual, they go to work, and daily life is normal as every day ... and I remember 2006, when there was a curfew at 10 pm, and tanks were parked here and there, and soldiers were patrolling in Soi 33 - and NOBODY WAS ON THE STREET (though that coup was bloodless, too). It was scary at night in the roads without any people. There is a slight difference between THIS martial law and the 2006 coup!As you point out, it sure doesn't look like what I think of as martial law. My impression is people are now more relaxed and going about their business. The biggest change is that the army is now in charge. The caretaker government may be administering mundane matters, but where there was a vacuum someone now has some real power and the resources to back that power. What has happened may not fit the literal definition of a coup, and people are emphatic that there has been no coup; to my eyes it bears a certain resemblance to a coup.


The people (yellow, orange and / or red) have send ONE VERY CLEAR message to all players: They don't want any measures to happen outside of the actual constitutional framework! The reds never liked this constitution, but every second sentence right now refers to it and requests elections. The yellows wrote this constitution and realize some deficits and flaws now, but still THEY DID NOT AUTHORIZE SUTHEP to go for an appointed government! Suthep lost step by step the support of most of his initial fans because of his annoying attitude to speak as the mouthpiece of "THE PEOPLE" and request the installation of a non-constitutional government. The majority of the yellows start to understand democracy, and they simply DO NOT SUPPORT THE PDRC! This is a very good development for Thailand!A very good development indeed! Now if the people only had a few good candidates to vote for, something that the two major political parties in my country seem unable to do.


I look at the stock market. And I don't see it crashing! This is another indicator that the actual development is not really considered to be too bad for Thailand. There is hope ... This is a major reason I follow this stuff. For years people have written about Thailand's Teflon economy. The markets are holding up well. The economy has been hurt. Tourism is down about 5%, and it comprised about 10% of the economy, so that is not insignificant. The problem is many companies are deferring capital investments in Thailand and rethinking their plans. In the medium and long term, unless this gets sorted out in a way that gives businesses confidence these problems are in the past, Thailand's continuing economic development will be hurt. Specifically, people are looking at Indonesia as an alternative. If they do go there, I wish them luck!


Right now - let's watch Gen. Prayuth, the lonely queen's man, the man I called "falcon" years ago (and I compared him to Adolf Hitler), the bulldog, the man in permanent trouble on press conferences. And let's hope for the best - hopefully I was wrong!Always hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

Always good to read what you have to say, Paul.

[Paul Kausch]

I look at the stock market. And I don't see it crashing! This is another indicator that the actual development is not really considered to be too bad for Thailand. There is hope ...To expand on my previous comment about this. The smart guys are saying all these events were anticipated and factored into the market months ago. The money that is still in the SET knows the country well and tolerates the risks inherent in investing in Thailand.

The worrisome implications are more long term. Companies are now looking more seriously at diversifying there operations. It's a safe bet that investments that would have come into Thailand now will go elsewhere. The only question is the magnitude, which will be influenced by future developments and whether businesses see a long term solution to Thailand's political problems in place. Another implication is that the baht will be relatively weaker in coming years than otherwise would have been the case. And of course currency decline offsets investment gains, making investing in Thailand less attractive. On the other hand a weaker baht helps exports.

Long ago a very wise man told me that to understand politics follow the money. Bottom line, all politics is ultimately about money. A declining economy, declining foreign investments, these are powerful influences. It is possible some powerful industrialists have grab a few people by the neck, knocked some heads together and told the politicians to clean up this shit. Look at who has suddenly emerged in eastern Ukraine and appears to be having more impact on events there than the government in Kiev.

[Traveler1234]

Long ago a very wise man told me that to understand politics follow the money. Bottom line, all politics is ultimately about money.Really, and you needed a wise man to tell you that? Did you finally just figure out Suthep and Thaksin are not in conflict over democratic principles.

It's simple, two groups, each led by a corrupt leader, fighting over a shrinking pot.....and the military wanting to make sure the goose that lays the golden eggs doesn't prematurely die...

[Paul Kausch]

Really, and you needed a wise man to tell you that?Um, I was about 9 or 10 years old.

[Giotto]

To expand on my previous comment about this. The smart guys are saying all these events were anticipated and factored into the market months ago. The money that is still in the SET knows the country well and tolerates the risks inherent in investing in Thailand.
...
In general you are right. The market will anticipate developments months ago. Nevertheless - it's difficult to anticipate political events and the outcome of those events. If a coup had happened (or the market would understand the implementation of Martial Law as coup) the losses in the SET would have been much steeper.


The worrisome implications are more long term. Companies are now looking more seriously at diversifying there operations. It's a safe bet that investments that would have come into Thailand now will go elsewhere. The only question is the magnitude, which will be influenced by future developments and whether businesses see a long term solution to Thailand's political problems in place. Another implication is that the baht will be relatively weaker in coming years than otherwise would have been the case. And of course currency decline offsets investment gains, making investing in Thailand less attractive. On the other hand a weaker baht helps exports.
...
If the market expected negative long term developments it would sell off today. This expectation does not dominate the SET right now. Market high was around 1650 approx. A year ago, and now we are around 1400, with a low in between at the beginning of January at around 1200 . The market reacted on Sutheps protests with a major sell-off (it was already down 10 % from its top) but stabilized within 6 weeks and started to rise again. Technically we are right now in an interesting formation and could break out to higher levels, but up to now this break out is not confirmed. Failure of the attempt to rally will drive the SET down to test 1300 again.

As for the economy. We don't have a functioning government for more than 6 months now, and the economy is showing signs of weakness, but exports and tourism are still going strong (the softer THB helps a lot). Agriculture, another major leg of the Thai economy, is relative resilient to any form of political crisis.

It could be much worse!


Giotto

[Paul Kausch]

If a coup had happened (or the market would understand the implementation of Martial Law as coup) the losses in the SET would have been much steeper.This is a very good point and a good argument against my assertion that effectively it was a coup.


If the market expected negative long term developments it would sell off today.I would think so. So I am a bit puzzled. Foreign investment is down significantly, and everything I read and hear says Thailand will not get all of it back, even if they can find a good solution to their political problems. The money is seeking geographic diversification. Myanmar is coming out of a half century of isolation. Hotel construction is up and there are huge opportunities in cellular. Vietnam is working hard to attract investments. People are pleased with the results of the Indonesian elections and are looking there for opportunities. Thailand has competition and the money is taking a longer look at the competitors.

In the developing world the rule is the first people to flee a market are the locals, they are closest to the information; next to flee are the debt holders; the last are the equity holders. What are you seeing? Is there much local money parked on the sidelines?


As for the economy. We don't have a functioning government for more than 6 months now, and the economy is showing signs of weakness, but exports and tourism are still going strong (the softer THB helps a lot). Agriculture, another major leg of the Thai economy, is relative resilient to any form of political crisis.Tourism is down 5%; agricultural exports are up 4 and a fraction percent. The weaker baht does help exports and tourism, but a declining currency eats into gains.


It could be much worse!Don't you love the way the Thais just smile their way through all the turbulence.

Paul.

[Naked Gunz]

The military has taken over. Suthep Thausuban detained by troops. Army chief says military will enact reforms.

[El Frances]

The military has taken over. Suthep Thausuban detained by troops. Army chief says military will enact reforms.Don't worry about him. It's just the army pretending to treat the different political leaders in the same way. Suthep was expecting imminent victory and there it is!
Now comes what they all fighted for: neutral (what a joke) interim government conducting reform before elections.

[Daddy07]

Yesterday the military took over the government but assured all that it wasn't a coup; today they tell the world that it is indeed a coup; tonight they interrupt TV programming continuously on all 189 TrueVision channels with military propaganda and patriotic musical crap; tonight there is a curfew and everyone must be off the streets by 10 pm; tomorrow it will probably be the internet and telephone services taken over; then it will be the bars and all the entertainment venues; no more pussy in Thailand; maybe they'll come for the farangs and kick us all out of the country; who knows? We're all of us outsiders here and that is all we will ever be no matter what happens.

Normally, I don't give a shit about Thai politics. Now I'm starting to get irritated and wondering what's next?

[Horny Landoora]

then it will be the bars and all the entertainment venues; no more pussy in Thailand; maybe they'll come for the farangs and kick us all out of the country; who knows? We're all of us outsiders that that is all we will ever be no matter what happens.

Normally, I don't give a shit about Thai politics. Now I'm starting to get irritated and wondering what's next?Lets hope not! More or less I guess they too know that the tourism in Thailand revolves around this illicit business which goes about be it gogos, massage parlours and other shady joints! Although its like every alternate day there is something happening and if this continues one thing that could be good for an average joe would be the prices coming down for mongering!

[Giotto]

Yeah,

Obviously I was wrong with my optimism. Sadly right about Gen. Prayuth.

We don't get any info here right now. I like this piece from The Nation:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Pryauth-announces-coup-to-meeting-representatives--30234333.html

Looks to me that Prayuth is a choleric. He must have expected that the main parties will not change there positions within 2 days after declaring martial law ...

He obviously had enough, and declared a coup. We hear rumors about that all participants of this meeting were detained, brought to cars and transported somewhere. And that the protestors on all sites (yellow and red) were asked and pushed to go home.

Curfew: 10 pm to 5 am.

Fuck!


Giotto

[Giotto]

...
Normally, I don't give a shit about Thai politics. Now I'm starting to get irritated and wondering what's next?Daddy07,

Gen. Prayuth has just announced that the army will seize the balls of all male foreigners. There is nothing you have to worry about, just go the the checkpoints, surrender your balls. And go home.

All good!


Giotto

[Paul Kausch]

He obviously had enough, and declared a coup. We hear rumors about that all participants of this meeting were detained, brought to cars and transported somewhere. And that the protestors on all sites (yellow and red) were asked and pushed to go home.

Curfew: 10 pm to 5 am.

Fuck!


GiottoThe Bangkok Post reports Prayuth sent the senate and EC members attending the meeting home, put everyone else in vans and drove them to a military location. It is reported that all members of the cabinet have been order to turn themselves in. The report is Prayuth took these actions when the caretaker government refused to resign. The curfew is more than a slight inconvenience. I don't see how anyone can predict how long it will last. I wonder how the curfew will effect hotel staffing and operations. What was it like the last time a curfew was declared?

[Traveler1234]

The Bangkok Post reports I wonder how the curfew will effect hotel staffing and operations. What was it like the last time a curfew was declared?

No offense or flame intended but we can all read the Bangkok Post ourselves. Reporting what they say is.... ;)

Of interest to most of us is not the political BS but on the ground reports of what's happening to the nightlife in Bangkok and other areas?

FWIW, travel to / from airport is exempt from the curfew. So evening arrivals and early morning departures aren't impacted. Maybe the good Giotto could sacrifice the one good ball he has left, to do a recon for all of us? :D

[Giotto]

No idea whether this is true:

Thaksin rejects Prayuth's proposal to have caretaker govt resign

The Nation May 22,2014 2:25 pm.

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra rejected the proposal by Army chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha that the Pheu Thai-led caretaker government resign, a Pheu Thai source said on Thursday.

The source said Prayuth came up with three proposals during the seven-partite meeting on Wednesday. First, he proposed that a caretaker Cabinet to resign, secondly that an interim government be formed and thirdly, that both the red-shirt movement and the People's Democratic Reform Committee end their rallies, according to the source.

The Pheu Thai representatives duly informed Thaksin of the proposals but he rejected them all and told Pheu Thai to fight to the full extent possible within the legal framework.

The source said Thaksin counter-proposed that the Army should instead arrange for blanket amnesty for all sides and the Shinawatra family would wash its hands of politics.

The source said Thaksin would also campaign to step up pressure on the Army to have the next election held as soon as possible.


Giotto

P.S.: If this is true then we learn that Thaksin cannot play poker as good as we thought he can, and Prayuth seams to be quite determined.

P.S. 2: If this is true then Thaksin and Daddy07 should now urgently move their balls out of Prayuth's zone of influence.

[Paul Kausch]

This just in.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/411240/army-details-curfew-exemptions

So travelers may move about freely during the curfew. Other groups are also exempt, night shift workers in factories and hospitals. I wonder if that includes people in other essential occupations such as sex workers. So the good news is we can go carousing late at night. The bad news is there will be nowhere to go.

[Giotto]

...
FWIW, travel to / from airport is exempt from the curfew. So evening arrivals and early morning departures aren't impacted. Maybe the good Giotto could sacrifice the one good ball he has left, to do a recon for all of us? :DAll same 2006.

A few cars on the streets. No pedestrians. It's dead. The bars, pubs, restaurants around here closed already now. 09.51 pm.


Giotto


PS: What's wrong with my second ball ?

[Paul Kausch]

No offense or flame intended but we can all read the Bangkok Post ourselves. Reporting what they say is.... ;)

Of interest to most of us is not the political BS but on the ground reports of what's happening to the nightlife in Bangkok and other areas?

FWIW, travel to / from airport is exempt from the curfew. So evening arrivals and early morning departures aren't impacted. Maybe the good Giotto could sacrifice the one good ball he has left, to do a recon for all of us? :DNone taken. Everyone is entitled to an opinion.

[Traveler1234]

Breaking news from the Bangkok Post.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories

[Giotto]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/o...ke-the-present

Wow!

If I read something like this I understand that the quality of the Bangkok Post is somewhat close to The New York Times. The Taliban could also solve this problem. In their POV the education of women is not necessary (yeah, women should follow their INSTINCTS, mongers?).

And if they cannot write they also cannot write NONSENSE LIKE THE PIECE ABOVE!


Giotto

P.S.: Sorry, I have nothing else to do ... It's curfew!

[Paul Kausch]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/o...ke-the-present

Giotto

P.S.: Sorry, I have nothing else to do ... It's curfew!Dang, I just clicked on the link. The Post said the article is not currently available. Now this really peaks my interest. An editorial so bad it was pulled, or was it censored?

[Traveler1234]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/o...ke-the-present
Wow!Thread / Link doesn't work, can you check?

Other breaking news

BTS and other mass transit closes at 9 pm.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-rece...to-shut-at-9pm

Airport runs beyond curfew hours permitted.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-rece...few-exemptions

And of course, the airport is running normally.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-rece...ating-as-usual

[Giotto]

Dang, I just clicked on the link. The Post said the article is not currently available. Now this really peaks my interest. An editorial so bad it was pulled, or was it censored?Yep, I also don't get it any more.

It contained was a list of the PMs of Thailand of the last 20 years with the question which one could be respected and which one could be spit on...

And then the demand towards the SENATE to implement a new better PM.

It was so one-sided yellow - and dumb - It was simply disgusting!


Giotto

[Giotto]

Chalerm Yoobamrung was arrested, together with his sons.

This is good news. Now - bring them somewhere and LOOSE THE KEY!


Giotto

[Tiny 12]

No idea whether this is true:

Thaksin rejects Prayuth's proposal to have caretaker govt resign

The Nation May 22,2014 2:25 pm.

You have to wonder whether the journalists at the Nation (and other media) are presenting the unbiased truth, with soldiers with semiautomatic weapons staring over their shoulders:

https://twitter.com/ChannelNewsAsia/status/469437719358103552/photo/1

Foreign news channels and ThaiPBS have been taken off the air. The interim prime minister is being detained or in hiding. Interesting situation.

[Giotto]

You have to wonder whether the journalists at the Nation (and other media) are presenting the unbiased truth, with soldiers with semiautomatic weapons staring over their shoulders:

https://twitter.com/ChannelNewsAsia/status/469437719358103552/photo/1
...
LOL.

I don't think that The Nation needs to be controlled in this situation. Thanong will be in his office jerking off in the middle of 20 bottles of Champagne ...


Giotto

[Paul Kausch]

Yep, I also don't get it any more.

It contained was a list of the PMs of Thailand of the last 20 years with the question which one could be respected and which one could be spit on...

And then the demand towards the SENATE to implement a new better PM.

It was so one-sided yellow - and dumb - It was simply disgusting!


GiottoIt's senseless to publish something like that. No wonder it was pulled. Wonder how it made it past whoever runs the editorial section.

[Tiny 12]

Chalerm Yoobamrung was arrested, together with his sons.

This is good news. Now - bring them somewhere and LOOSE THE KEY!


GiottoGiotto, Could you re-post. The link appears to be broken, and I can't find the story through Google. Thanks!

[Giotto]

Giotto, Could you re-post. The link appears to be broken, and I can't find the story through Google. Thanks!I took the link out. The piece is gone, too.

There is a massive clean-up going on right now on all websites of the big Thai newspapers.


Giotto

It's back: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Chalerm-arrested-report-30234371.html

[El Frances]

With all respect to other posters, I think this story of Prayuth getting suddenly angry because other opposing parties won't compromise is complete bullshit. They all have the same objective except the pro-govnt:

- Suthep organised protest to get an "interim government making reform before elections".

- Abhisit made a cosmetic compromise proposal, that is "interim government making reform before elections".

- the senate group of nominated members made a so-called compromise proposal: "interim government making reform before elections".

- Prayuth asked the caretaker govnt to resign, in order to leave room for an "interim government making reform before elections" (I love the copy / paste function).

- Prayuth now makes a coup and the next move will be "interim government making reform before elections".

Just different methods, but same objective..

Interesting analysis in siu website:

http://siu.co.th/2014/05/thailand-2014-coup-expect-for-the-worst/

(As long as it is not censored).

Extract:

"We already warned the 'bad scenario' in our previous analysis and now it happens.

It seems that from the conservatives' viewpoint, the stake is too high so they can not lose this war at all cost. That's why this coup happens. The martial law on 20th May is a testbed for today's coup. We think the coup has been planned long before and the martial law is just a 'lead signal' for the eventual coup.

The big picture of this coup is 'conservative forces consolidate their power'. The red shirts movement is too dangerous for the 'sake of the Kingdom' and needs to be gotten rid of. The 'hard liner' generals now run the show and we should expect the bad outcome.

What to Expect.

This list is just our quick analysis from today's information. We are very pessimistic right now for the situation.

We should see the new PM soon (within the next 3-4 days). The senate will act for the full parliament and nominate a new PM.

Possible PM candidates are General Prawit Wongsuwan, ex-Army chief and Palakorn Suwanrath, a Privy Councilor. Both are closed to the palace.

The new junta government will run the country for 1-2 years. Possibly longer than previous Surayud Chulanont government (2006-2007).

New Constitution will be drafted, we might call it 2015 Constitution. It will be more draconian than 2007 Constitution.

PDRC, Democrat Party, and all anti-Pheu Thai leaders will be released in the next few days. Pheu Thai and red leaders will be in custody longer.

The short term (1-3 months) outcome will be peaceful but it's temporary peace.

The longer term (3-6 months and more) looks bad. Red Shirts will go underground. We might see some unrests.

The situation after that depends on the structure of the new Constitution and the call for 'true democratic' general election.

If the Constitution is undemocratic and the election is postponed indefinitely, the country (especially the junta government) will face the insurgency in North and Northeastern which is the red shirts' bases.

The worst possible scenario is a chronic civil war. Same as Thailand's ongoing Deep South Insurgency.".

[Linkwray666]

All same 2006.

A few cars on the streets. No pedestrians. It's dead. The bars, pubs, restaurants around here closed already now. 09.51 pm.

Martial law has been imposed, government has been dissolved, constitution has been suspended.

Probably not the best time to go, I think I will be cancelling my travel plans until this is sorted.

How long did it take to return to the Thai version of normalcy in 2006?

[Paul Kausch]

This must have been planned for some time and the military was just waiting for the right moment. I've read reports they had hundreds of buses waiting and dispatched them to protest sites to take people home shortly after they declared a coup. They had their list of who they would arrest and are rounding them up. Now Prayuth is saying he will stay on to run things even if this continues past his retirement date. He doesn't want his successor to step into the job and have this to deal with he.

I wonder if succession is a factor. Of course it is, but what I mean is ... Is something about to happen? This may be a critical time to be in control of the government.

[Giotto]

With all respect to other posters, I think this story of Prayuth getting suddenly angry because other opposing parties won't compromise is complete bullshit.
...
LOL!

You did not really take this seriously, did you?


Giotto

[Giotto]

...
- Suthep organised protest to get an "interim government making reform before elections".

- Abhisit made a cosmetic compromise proposal, that is "interim government making reform before elections".

- the senate group of nominated members made a so-called compromise proposal: "interim government making reform before elections".

- Prayuth asked the caretaker govnt to resign, in order to leave room for an "interim government making reform before elections" (I love the copy / paste function).

- Prayuth now makes a coup and the next move will be "interim government making reform before elections".
...
That's nonsense. Red shirt bullshit talk. And even the website refers to a prediction that does not even mention the word "coup":

...
"The worse one: Prayuth will let the Senate (only remaining political institution, also closed to PCRC) act as the full parliament. The Senate will choose the acting Prime Minister and cabinet, which might be unconstitutional. The new cabinet will face a big opposition from the red shirts. Since the martial law prohibits any political activities, the red shirts will go underground. Thailand might face the insurgency nationwide."
...

If this was a yellow plan and it had been in any way obvious before then the reds could have played this game much better than they did.

Afterwards, when you know the events and look back, it's easy to construct such a vision.

The coup was prepared. Of course, whether as a serious interaction with martial law to force a compromise or as the final solution: Coup - the army was prepared. But Prayuth did not want to stage this coup. Otherwise he could have done that months ago, when the support for the yellows was much stronger than today.


Giotto

[PinkPearl]

Martial law has been imposed, government has been dissolved, constitution has been suspended.

Probably not the best time to go, I think I will be cancelling my travel plans until this is sorted.

How long did it take to return to the Thai version of normalcy in 2006?Many were afraid to come to Thailand in the last 7 months of protests, yet those that did come often found it was better than it has been in recent years. IOW it has been a heyday of sorts.

Now people will be even more afraid to come & it will be even more of a prime time for mongering, both for those living here and for visitors.

[Kerrstar]

Martial law has been imposed, government has been dissolved, constitution has been suspended.

Probably not the best time to go, I think I will be cancelling my travel plans until this is sorted.

How long did it take to return to the Thai version of normalcy in 2006?Hope this doesn't last long, I need to do a visa run from Burma in a few weeks and my options are pretty limited, only one flight a day from Nay Pyi Taw and that's to Bangkok, arriving at 10:30 pm.

May need to go to Yangon and fly to Singapore, expensive play to enjoy our hobby though.

[Pita123]

Chalerm Yoobamrung was arrested, together with his sons.

This is good news. Now - bring them somewhere and LOOSE THE KEY!


GiottoIncluding the sharpshooter?

[El Frances]

That's nonsense. Red shirt bullshit talk. And even the website refers to a prediction that does not even mention the word "coup":

...
"The worse one: Prayuth will let the Senate (only remaining political institution, also closed to PCRC) act as the full parliament. The Senate will choose the acting Prime Minister and cabinet, which might be unconstitutional. The new cabinet will face a big opposition from the red shirts. Since the martial law prohibits any political activities, the red shirts will go underground. Thailand might face the insurgency nationwide."
...

If this was a yellow plan and it had been in any way obvious before then the reds could have played this game much better than they did.

Afterwards, when you know the events and look back, it's easy to construct such a vision.

The coup was prepared. Of course, whether as a serious interaction with martial law to force a compromise or as the final solution: Coup - the army was prepared. But Prayuth did not want to stage this coup. Otherwise he could have done that months ago, when the support for the yellows was much stronger than today.


GiottoThe siu point of view is surely not without political inspiration and may be as wrong as others, but still interesting to read. A scenario among others. (Additional comment: they are not the only ones to believe that the senate will nominate a new PM, from what I read).

About Prayuth, of course he probably did not want to stage the coup and could have done it before. But it was obviously one of the last remaining means to get an interim government.

Churchill could have said " they stage a coup once they have exhausted all other alternatives".

[Gorgon]

Is there any serious online sources into investigating this "red army" that is going to "start a civil war"?

It's one thing to shoot some M79 grenades in to unprepared civilians and a whole other ball game to start open warfare with the army. The only choice before them would be to copy the southern terror movement and that seems a bit far fetched.

They can kill some innocents or do some drive by shootings at the barracks gate guard and not much more. Why is this even talked about as a reasonable scenario?

[Wolvenvacht]

This just in.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/411240/army-details-curfew-exemptions

So travelers may move about freely during the curfew. Other groups are also exempt, night shift workers in factories and hospitals. I wonder if that includes people in other essential occupations such as sex workers. So the good news is we can go carousing late at night. The bad news is there will be nowhere to go.Of course that will make of the whole curfew a joke. Travellers are allowed to go to / from the airport. So they must have transportation, which means taxis, busses, trains, ... Must be exempt as well. Certain government workers will be exempt as well, same same for people working in logistics for perishable goods, ... And again all these people must be able to reach their workplace. My guess is that this curfew will be over soon. The logistics of maintaining it will be overwhelming. And the nicest touch is that "People who happen to have urgent or important errands during the curfew hours are advised to ask for permission from military officers near their homes". Instant income for your local military officer! I guess the military check-points closest to Nana or Soi Cowboy will soon become a most sought after appointment: "Yes please Captain, give me a permission to go out urgently and barfine some fine Thai pussy. Yes, that is important for me. Yes, it is urgent: I already have blue balls. Here have some Thai baht to defray your admin costs in providing me the permission". ;)

[El Frances]

Is there any serious online sources into investigating this "red army" that is going to "start a civil war"?

It's one thing to shoot some M79 grenades in to unprepared civilians and a whole other ball game to start open warfare with the army. The only choice before them would be to copy the southern terror movement and that seems a bit far fetched.

They can kill some innocents or do some drive by shootings at the barracks gate guard and not much more. Why is this even talked about as a reasonable scenario?As respected armchair quarterback, the only answer I can give is that they have been prepared for a coup since since it has been obvious that Suthep was allowed to disturb the system. The reds even threatened to secede and create a northern state. The difference with southern terror mouvements is that they benefit from the support of most of the population in the north and north east. A significant number of plain soldiers also come from these poor regions...

So it may be more like in Egypt or Tunisia, at least in the North / North East. If it happens, of course... For now, it's just a scenario among others

[Wolvenvacht]

Martial law has been imposed, government has been dissolved, constitution has been suspended.

Probably not the best time to go, I think I will be cancelling my travel plans until this is sorted.

How long did it take to return to the Thai version of normalcy in 2006?There is some truth in saying that the situation has never returned fully to normal since the coup in 2007.

[Java Man]

I will be cancelling my travel plans until this is sorted. How long did it take to return to the Thai version of normalcy in 2006?I had planned on being in Thailand NOW, but life got in the way. Was planning on going in late Nov. Will wait and see, but am not hopeful as the 2006 coup lasted a year.

[TxDesertdic]

I had planned on being in Thailand NOW, but life got in the way. Was planning on going in late Nov. Will wait and see, but am not hopeful as the 2006 coup lasted a year.I am booked in Hua hin for a golf tournament in 2 weeks, all is paid for. I wonder how this will effect the event. 600+ golfers form all over.

[Traveler1234]

As respected armchair quarterback, the only answer I can give is that they have been prepared for a coup since...The coup option has been on the table since early / mid February...sitting halfway around the world, we all knew it would eventually come.

But I respect your armchair quarterback comments ;)

[Paul Kausch]

Of course that will make of the whole curfew a joke. Travellers are allowed to go to / from the airport. So they must have transportation, which means taxis, busses, trains, ... Must be exempt as well. Certain government workers will be exempt as well, same same for people working in logistics for perishable goods, ... And again all these people must be able to reach their workplace. My guess is that this curfew will be over soon. The logistics of maintaining it will be overwhelming. And the nicest touch is that "People who happen to have urgent or important errands during the curfew hours are advised to ask for permission from military officers near their homes". Instant income for your local military officer! I guess the military check-points closest to Nana or Soi Cowboy will soon become a most sought after appointment: "Yes please Captain, give me a permission to go out urgently and barfine some fine Thai pussy. Yes, that is important for me. Yes, it is urgent: I already have blue balls. Here have some Thai baht to defray your admin costs in providing me the permission". ;)I think you're right. They will use it with great discrimination. An angry looking young Thai man in a red tee-shirt will get arrested for curfew violation. A young lady covered with tramp stamps and dressed like a hooker will get a pass. And she may get a shake down. Something to keep in mind. She will need money for the taxi and the army checkpoints she passes through. LOL.

[Dveight]

Martial law has been imposed, government has been dissolved, constitution has been suspended.

Probably not the best time to go, I think I will be cancelling my travel plans until this is sorted.

How long did it take to return to the Thai version of normalcy in 2006?Why cancel your plans? I lived in Bangkok through the airport shutdown in 08, through the riots in 09 when the leaders of ASEAN had to be evacuated, and through the protests of 10 that culminated with She Daeng being assented and Central World and 30+ other buildings being set on fire...despite minor inconveniences life for most Thai's and Expats was mostly unaffected. Friends on the ground now are telling me that last night was the first night that anyone in the Sukhumvit area was affected and that was only because of the curfew. I don't know when your plans are for...but if you cancel travel plans for every minor little hiccup...you'll never make it to Bangkok...obviously just my opinion...but I would still go.

[Dveight]

She Daeng Seh Daeng...stupid autocorrect.

[Member #4698]

that last night was the first night that anyone in the Sukhumvit area was affected and that was only because of the curfew. How long is the curfew scheduled to remain in effect?

[Paul Kausch]

The coup option has been on the table since early / mid February...sitting halfway around the world, we all knew it would eventually come.I don't know much. Some of you guys are on the ground in Bangkok with real information collected on the streets and shared over bottles of Chang. ;) I sit halfway around the world and rely on information from old Thai business associates.

Here's what I understand.

Plans for this coup have been underway since 2010. Prayuth saw first hand the problems the army had dealing with past events. His primary objective since assuming supreme command shortly thereafter has been to prepare the army to handle the next coup. Armies always study the last war to prepare to fight the next war, which they know will happen, eventually.

Talk all you want about the watermelon army. He's made sure there are divisions he can trust up and down the chain of command. Some time ago he put his brother, who is also an army general, in charge of Issan. Probably means nothing. He and his bother are Plebeians from Issan. His younger brother probably wanted to be closer to home. Prayuth wasn't born with privilege. It took brains, hard work, luck and being loyal to the right people to get him to where he is.

Some time ago troops, armor and munitions were re-deploymented. Prayuth assured anyone who noticed that these were just standard military exercises. There may be insurrection in the northeast and the north. The army expects this and is ready for it. They've conducted raids, seized weapons and explosives, and intercepted weapons being transported to Bangkok, some by aids to Pheu Thai MPs.

The army's goal is to contain the violence to the north and northeast where it will directly effect Thaksin's base. The question is, will there be terrorist acts in Bangkok?

It could get very ugly or a little ugly. It depends on Thaksin. The man is a bully. Take away is power and like all bullies he first huffs and puffs and then becomes cowardly and irrational, which is what we have been observing. As he has lost power he has made increasingly irrational moves. Did you hear about the offer he made as the coup was unfolded in a desperate attempt to stop it? Did you hear about what just happened to two members of his family? That was a very small taste of what may come to pass. You can mock the sclerotic old men, but they are hell bent on destroying Thaksin and his entire family. And they have some not so old and not so sclerotic men with considerable resources at their disposal to carry this out. They want to make sure Thaksin leave a nice legacy behind that will forever endear him to his kith and kin.

But what the hell do I know? Perhaps my old friends don't know what they are talking about.

[Dveight]

How long is the curfew scheduled to remain in effect?It's unknown at this point...a friend of mine in Bangkok texted me that University was canceled for tomorrow...but that her teacher had rescheduled exams for Mondays. Leads me to believe that Thai's do not seeing this dragging out for long. The Army runs the country pretty much anyway..good chances that things will normalize over the weekend..in my humble OPINION.

[Daddy07]

how long is the curfew scheduled to remain in effect?at 8:30 this morning all 189 true vision channels are still hijacked with military propaganda garbage; no one can get news, entertainment or anything else save what the military hijackers want us to have. (12 hours now and counting) this is madness without any moral or practical purpose! thailand has been taken hostage by thugs.

obviously, these generals and their powerful civilian backers care nothing about the people they're sworn to protect but are only interested in letting everyone know that they are in control now and they're going to make things difficult for everyone – not just the political protesters who threatened potential harm.

the curfew has closed virtually everything down in the entire country just to stop the potential violence in a few rep001tered areas, mostly in bangkok. it's like using a shotgun to kill house flies. millions of innocent thai people whose livelihoods depend on tourism and their businesses remaining open at night are being punished for no reason except to send the message that everyone is going to suffer now for the bad deeds of a few.

this military crackdown nonsense is going to do far more political, financial and social damage to thailand imho than the yellow and red shirt mobs could ever have hoped to cause. while living in pattaya, for example, i saw no problems with political turmoil until last night with the hijacking of the entire nation by the military.

i feel sorry for the average thai trying to make a living and get by. i'm not going to suffer much over this but they will. it's a shame. this is what governments do to people.

[Mua Tur]

Whatever, I don't care. M arriving Subornabhum this afternoon.

[Paul Kausch]

This is madness without any moral or practical purpose! Thailand has been taken hostage by thugs.

This military crackdown nonsense is going to do far more political, financial and social damage to Thailand IMHO than the yellow and red shirt mobs could ever have hoped to cause.

I feel sorry for the average Thai trying to make a living and get by. I'm not going to suffer much over this but they will. It's a shame. This is what governments do to people.The ultimate culprit is not the military. It is the power struggle between the reds and yellows. The military, like the courts, is just an agent for the yellows.

The information I've been getting over the last few hours from financial news sources is that this is happening now because because both sides are desperate to control the government at the time of succession, with the implication being that may soon happen.

So a few thousand people, at most, with varying degrees of wealth and power are in a fight that adversely effects millions of ordinary people. And this is happening in a Buddhist country! What irony.

[Giotto]

- Business as usual everywhere.

- still no TV channel.

- the music of the military channel is definitely annoying.

- stock market opened 2 % down, recovering now.

- the THB is nearly unchanged to before the coup.

- coffee was ok.

Martial law 3 days ago, a coup yesterday. What will happen today?


Giotto

[Paul Kausch]

- Business as usual everywhere.

- still no TV channel.

- the music of the military channel is definitely annoying.

- stock market opened 2 % down, recovering now.

- the THB is nearly unchanged to before the coup.

- coffee was ok.

Martial law 3 days ago, a coup yesterday. What will happen today?


GiottoGiotto,

Always look at the bright side. For example, you have an opportunity to deepen your appreciation for patriotic Thai music.

More seriously, what's happening with the curfew. Specifically, what about people coming in on late night flight? Are the taxis run to and from the airport past the curfew?

Prayuth is calling everyone in to meet with him. Wonder if they'll be leaving the meetings in a white van with an armed escort.

I wish everyone the over there the best.

Paul.

[Giotto]

Giotto,

Always look at the bright side. For example, you have an opportunity to deepen your appreciation for patriotic Thai music.
...
Paul,

You don't hear this. This is - a kind of torture! I expect that Prayuth does this on purpose and has planned this together will all the yellow secret society for months!

It is nearly impossible to find THAT BAD MUSIC here in Thailand ANYWHERE. There must be team of hundreds of (most likely deaf) public relation officers working on putting this disastrous pieces of music together. Target can only be to make the people of Thailand suffer ... Motto: We now penalize you for 8 years coup-free time, democracy lovers! How could you!

Now - I don't have real problems with Thai politics, be it red, yellow or green (=coup) ... But this music is definitely a reason to leave the country.


Giotto

[Western787]

Could the Army while its at it, order the volume turned down at Rainbow 1, Rainbow 4, and Bacarra?

[Western787]

This military crackdown nonsense is going to do far more political, financial and social damage to Thailand IMHO than the yellow and red shirt mobs could ever have hoped to cause. While living in Pattaya, for example, I saw no problems with political turmoil until last night with the hijacking of the entire nation by the military.

I feel sorry for the average Thai trying to make a living and get by. I'm not going to suffer much over this but they will. It's a shame. This is what governments do to people.The status quo was already a disaster for both the economy and the people.

Economic grow near or at depression levels, Japanese investment off 42% for the first 3 months vs the same 3 months last year, the longer term prospects even worse, and a 2nd low season "High Season" with hotels half empty.

The coup is really about taking the hit now and hopefully laying the groundwork to get the economy back on track.

[Paul Kausch]

Paul,

You don't hear this. This is - a kind of torture! I expect that Prayuth does this on purpose and has planned this together will all the yellow secret society for months!

It is nearly impossible to find THAT BAD MUSIC here in Thailand ANYWHERE. There must be team of hundreds of (most likely deaf) public relation officers working on putting this disastrous pieces of music together. Target can only be to make the people of Thailand suffer ... Motto: We now penalize you for 8 years coup-free time, democracy lovers! How could you!

Now - I don't have real problems with Thai politics, be it red, yellow or green (=coup) ... But this music is definitely a reason to leave the country.


GiottoGiotto,

My good man. Your prose convey your pain. You have my sympathy.

I read a funny interview with an auto mechanic. He said, "They want us to sit at home. At least they could give us something good to watch on television.".

Just listened to an interview with the CEO of a major Hong Kong private equity firm. He answered one of the questions I asked in an earlier post, what is the local money doing? Is it ready to flee? He said that he and all, and he said all, his Thai friends see the coup as very good for the long term and they are increasing their investments in the Thai market. He said there will be more periodic drops, but starting now is a good time to jump in. His firm's plans are the same as his Thai friend, buy now and buy more in the future on the dips. So the local money rather than fleeing is bullish.

[Linkwray666]

Why cancel your plans? Friends on the ground now are telling me that last night was the first night that anyone in the Sukhumvit area was affected and that was only because of the curfew. Yeah, the curfew and everything being closed seems like a major inconvenience to me. 50% of the fun for me happens during what are now curfew hours. I realize I am free to walk the streets all night, but if Thais are off the street what fun is there to be had during those hours? Take a girl to the room before curfew and be cooped up with her for LT and hope for the best I guess, but I really prefer ST then the flirting and the thrill of the hunt for another and another til the wee hours then sleeping late and sleeping alone.

I will wait til the party gets back to full steam then come back for a visit. Might do Philippines in the meantime.

[LittleBigMan]

I like to talk politics but just let the experts here do the real talking about what is going on. When it comes to Thailand here is my point of view as I discuss it over coffee each morning with Expats from America and around the world. It is just a bunch of guys shooting the bullshit as one would say.

Whether you like the yellow or red whatever they are fighting about " Democracy " etc. It is all about a bunch of people using other Thais because they are just too stupid to figure it out that they are being played by both sides! They basically are fighting because the party that is running the country is getting rich with all the corruption money last reported 2 years ago something like 200 Billion that flows through the hands of the party in control. The years living here under the Yellow or Red it all seems the same to me except the names are different.

Year after year it seems after the airport was taken over and cause so much pain for tourist that this time around everything seem to be pre-plan. Demonstrate at this location on this particular day there are even dates mentioned as to when the end is coming. Most of all as long as you do not take over the airport again " knock yourself out " and oh by the way " do it during low season too " Wasn't the last two coup done in May? Just guessing?

No shot has been fired nothing even close to a few years ago but now Martial Law and a coup? Early evening yesterday I didn't hear anything just too busy. Around 8 pm I hooked up with one of my side action freelancer who has a room near Walking Street across from the Marine Hotel. Spend a few hours with her and left around just after 10 pm, came out and noticed the area was dead no loud music as usually. Someone told me curfew " you don't know " I was just thinking like the last curfew " who gives a fucking shit ".

It was a trip. I got on my bike took off cruising down 2nd road, towards Soi 6, empty, backdown Beach Road to Pattaya Tai, up to Sukhumvit it was a trip so quiet? At the junction of Pattaya Tai / Sukhumvit I got pull over by the BIB, ask me in Thai what I was doing like always I play stupid can't talk too much Thai. I took out my Thai driving License / copy of passport etc... One guy comes after hearing me speak English basically asking me why I was out pass 10 pm? I just said why not what is going on? He mentioned curfew and I just told him I came from girl apartment boom boom no look T.V. Etc. In Thai and going home now. They started laughing asking me where I was from and said I was old butterfly? In the end, we were all standing around shooting the breeze in broken English and shitty Thai? After a few minutes I gave them all a stick of gum got on my bike and sail up Sukhumvit towards the Darkside.

In the end, nothing really changes each morning siting drinking coffee we talk the same stuff " who gives a fuck our concern is only is the USD going to get stronger over the Baht and where is the best and cheapest pussy around town. Basically the best bang for your baht? As far as I'm concern everything could end tomorrow if that stupid ass Thaksin would just come back and kiss the mans feet he could come home today otherwise the fighting goes on regardless of the reasons. If they had nothing to fight about they would fight to find something to fight about! Life is too good and short don't let this b.s. stop you from coming it goes in cycles? Just let them kill themselves if they don't do it fighting for democracy they will do it on the road?

Good day gentlemen? LBM politics in Thailand 555?

[Paul Kausch]

I've spent the last few hours watching and listening to many interviews conducted with people in finance and industry with intimate knowledge of Thailand. There was a clear pattern to what they said.

Currency: everyone seems to think over the next year the baht will steadily weaken relative to the US $ and eventually stabilize at around 34. They don't see the coup as a problem. They get the sense that most Thais expected this and are actually relieved. They think the worries about insurrections and violence are over stated.

Institutional investors and fund managers: all the guys managing the big money see the coup as good. They are bullish for the longer term; but of course no one said how long is long. They think all the bad news is already factored into the market, but there will still be a few dips. They are increasing the weight of Thai investments in their portfolios. They are watching the local money and they see it is buying in.

Multinational manufacturers: no one is creating plans to deal with a deterioration in the situation in Thailand. They are already well enough diversified that they can deal with small disruptions. They think the insurrection and violence people fear and the more militant red shirts threaten will be very limited. The companies who manfacture consumer products consumed in Thailand have been evaluating the mood of the general population on both sides and find people are tired of the fighting and are ready to accept any reasonable solution that ends the conflict. Their evaluation is there is little support for violent among the rank and file on either side.

So the money is watching what the local money is doing and the manufacturers are listening to what their customers are saying about these events.

Finally, why now? Big changes are expect and the real fight is over who will control the monarchy's vast wealth.

[Daddy07]

Just checked on True Visions again; all the channels are still blocked and filled with military buffalo shit; the morons must think that watching Hippo's fucking on Animal Planet is subversive and that little kids watching cartoons is harmful to the public order. Oh, well, I need to be reminded now and then that I live in a third world country; a banana republic ruled by jack-booted thugs.

As for the curfew, I received an SMS text from one of my favorite a-Go-Go's urging me not to stay home; that the joint will be open tonight and happy hour will continue all night long with hot girls to play with; so I'm going out into the fray prepared to take my lumps.

Fuck the curfew!

[Giotto]

Just checked on True Visions again; all the channels are still blocked and filled with military buffalo shit;
...
Daddy,

Relax, lean back - and listen to the music :):):) !


Giotto

[Kaintuck]

I remember the curfew of May 2010 in Bangkok. Nothing to do. Almost.

[Mogwai]

Just checked on True Visions again; all the channels are still blocked and filled with military buffalo shit; the morons must think that watching Hippo's fucking on Animal Planet is subversive and that little kids watching cartoons is harmful to the public order. Oh, well, I need to be reminded now and then that I live in a third world country; a banana republic ruled by jack-booted thugs.

As for the curfew, I received an SMS text from one of my favorite a-Go-Go's urging me not to stay home; that the joint will be open tonight and happy hour will continue all night long with hot girls to play with; so I'm going out into the fray prepared to take my lumps.

Fuck the curfew!I have read somewhere (cannot find it back though) that the curfew does not apply to foreigners. So if the bars stay open (if...) this means you can still bar hop after 10 PM. However you cannot take a girl to your premises because she's not allowed on the streets (unless she's from Laos or Cambodia for example, LOL).

But some bars have ST rooms. Or maybe they allow you to go to the ST hotel within NEP or the one on Soi 21 very close to Soy Cowboy.

[LittleBigMan]

I have read somewhere (cannot find it back though) that the curfew does not apply to foreigners. So if the bars stay open (if...) this means you can still bar hop after 10 PM. However you cannot take a girl to your premises because she's not allowed on the streets (unless she's from Laos or Cambodia for example, LOL).

But some bars have ST rooms. Or maybe they allow you to go to the ST hotel within NEP or the one on Soi 21 very close to Soy Cowboy.From your post you are referring to Bangkok, but last night Pattaya at checkpoints up at Sukhumvit / Khaotolo, a Farang friend told me they were stopped by the BIB, after 10 pm, not much after and was told you needed to pay 500 baht... But settle on 200 baht.

Since the majority of the channels are shut down guess they have to justify the coup. And since majority of the Thai stations are either owned by the yellow or red one can't get much information about curfew but just went down to 7/11 at my corner and the girl told me like last night the store will be closed at 10 pm curfew is on?

Spanky's down on Walking Street, said they are opening at 4 pm, guess they plan to open early and close early? No one really knows? Not even the Military?

[Beno69]

... And since majority of the Thai stations are either owned by the yellow or red one can't get much information about curfew...
....guess they plan to open early and close early.....

Today all TV Channels where blocked. Even BBC / Al Jazeera etc.
To pick up the Girls early and then they have to stay the Night - is not so bad... thank you Military...

[LittleBigMan]

Today all TV Channels where blocked. Even BBC / Al Jazeera etc.
To pick up the Girls early and then they have to stay the Night - is not so bad... thank you Military...To be honest unless you can speak 100% Thai, so handsome that she can look at you for hours without saying a word, and maybe you are hiding something from us and can give us some tips how you plan to fuck her for hours while she stays the night?

Without T.V. A Thai girl is going to be bored out of her mind if she stays the night? And once she is bored so will you?

[Giotto]

Insider's report on coup decision

http://bangkokpost.com/most-recent/411419/insider-report-on-coup-decision

Lohohohooooooooool!!!!


Giotto

[Paul Kausch]

I have read somewhere (cannot find it back though) that the curfew does not apply to foreigners. So if the bars stay open (if...) this means you can still bar hop after 10 PM. However you cannot take a girl to your premises because she's not allowed on the streets (unless she's from Laos or Cambodia for example, LOL).

But some bars have ST rooms. Or maybe they allow you to go to the ST hotel within NEP or the one on Soi 21 very close to Soy Cowboy.Prayuth announced travelers, shift factory workers, health care workers, perishable food delivery workers and people dealing with emergencies such as travel to a hospital for medical treatment are exempt from the curfew. I have read reports that taxis are operating to and from the airports.

[Paul Kausch]

This morning I got another email from USA state dept. It recommends US citizens reconsider nonessential travel to Thailand. That is the way they worded it. They made a point of warning about the curfew, but failed to mention it does not apply to travelers.

Last night as I was gorging myself on interviews with the financial and industrial folk, I listened to one interview with the USA's ambassador. Her tone was in stark contrast to everyone else. She acted very grave, lamented how horrible the situation is and kept repeating that people at the highest level are meeting and planning sanctions. Problem is the USA doesn't have much of a club to use against Prayuth. We give something like six million a year to the Thai military. We hold frequent joint exercises with them. The US military sees the Thai military as a valuable ally.

Prayuth has ordered the government to give him 80 billion bahts to pay the rice farmers. I expect as they get their checks a big point will be made that they can thank the general, a man of humble origins from Korat.

[El Frances]

Insider's report on coup decision

http://bangkokpost.com/most-recent/411419/insider-report-on-coup-decision

Lohohohooooooooool!!!!


GiottoSo in order to punish Suthep for not reaching a compromise with the UDD, Prayuth will implement reform before election. .

[Gorgon]

He realizes that the rice scheme issue positively must be neutralized before any progress can be made with all the people burned by it. The farmers will support insurgents if they feel they have been cheated forever. If he pays them their dues they have less of a reason to risk life or limb to support some angry red shirts that might or might not be crazy.

Waiting for the stock of rice in storage to sell is a lost cause from what I gather and they will probably make pig food of it.

Six million smackers is a big chunk of change, I wonder how much money just leave your country for "military aid" of dubious worth.

[Paul Kausch]

So in order to punish Suthep for not reaching a compromise with the UDD, Prayuth will implement reform before election. .Of course. They are busy writing a new constitution that will further limit any elected government and make sure the elite can control the government. The question is, what will be the reaction when people read the new constitution.

Prayuth has said he may stick around and run things for the next year or so. I take his statements at face value.

Also, I'm hearing a number of the politicians and protest leads started sending money out of the country as soon as the coup was announced. The army is busy tracking the money and has a list of people who are ordered not to leave the country without its permission. As you guys no doubt know, SOP for a coup.

[Paul Kausch]

He realizes that the rice scheme issue positively must be neutralized before any progress can be made with all the people burned by it. The farmers will support insurgents if they feel they have been cheated forever. If he pays them their dues they have less of a reason to risk life or limb to support some angry red shirts that might or might not be crazy.

Waiting for the stock of rice in storage to sell is a lost cause from what I gather and they will probably make pig food of it.

Six million smackers is a big chunk of change, I wonder how much money just leave your country for "military aid" of dubious worth.The money to pay the rice farmers is coming from the treasury and not from rice sales. The farmers are supposed to get the money over the next 2 or 3 weeks.

I'm sure they are going to count how much rice is on hand, figure out how much has rotted and how much has disappeared, another club they will use to beat the former government with.

Six million sounds like a lot to you and me, but for the USA aid it's chump change. Six hundred million, now that's serious money.

[Pita123]

To be honest unless you can speak 100% Thai, so handsome that she can look at you for hours without saying a word, and maybe you are hiding something from us and can give us some tips how you plan to fuck her for hours while she stays the night?

Without T.V. A Thai girl is going to be bored out of her mind if she stays the night? And once she is bored so will you?Wow! You must be an incredibly uninteresting and uninterested person or are picking up totally uninteresting girls.

[Daebis]

The general has talked about various thing and one which caught my eye was Social reform, he has said its much needed and has destroyed the culture.

What does that mean for the thai tourism.

Also as curfew is from 10 pm to 5 AM, does it mean places will be open and workers will get in earlier.

[Paul Kausch]

Received another alert a little over an hour ago. The language is stronger than the last alert.

" The U.S. Department of State recommends that U.S. citizens reconsider any non-essential travel to Thailand, particularly Bangkok, due to ongoing political and social unrest and restrictions on internal movements, including an indefinite nighttime curfew throughout Thailand.?The Department of State has advised official USA Government travelers to defer all non-essential travel to Thailand until further notice.? This Travel Alert supersedes the Travel Alert issued on May 16,2014, and will expire on August 21,2014.".

The bold face was in the email. I have no idea why there is a question mark after the period at the end of the bold face. Guess it was too much trouble to proof this email before distribution.

My take is this is just part of the pressure the brilliant people in my country's state department are trying to bring to bear on the Thai military. They still aren't disclosing that the curfew does not apply to visitors. It's shocking that my government is being less than truthful. Who would have thought?

[Rodwint2]

See BP story: http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/411462/curfew-hits-businesses-hard.

[Paul Kausch]

See BP story: http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/411462/curfew-hits-businesses-hard.Not surprising and ironically good news for a monger. This is pressure to end the curfew as soon as possible.

[Traveler1234]

They still aren't disclosing that the curfew does not apply to visitors. Really, is that true for all visitors -- they can just walked / drive the streets after curfew? I thought there are some exceptions, eg travel to / from airport but not a general moratorium for visitors? And how does the military distinguish between locals and visitors? How is a visitor defined...a tourist, expats on work visas, etc.?


It's shocking that my government is being less than truthful. Who would have thought?What do YOU know that the US government doesn't know? I assume you're aware that US intelligence agencies have a significant presence in LOS and know a lot more than normally made public?

[LittleBigMan]

wow! you must be an incredibly uninteresting and uninterested person or are picking up totally uninteresting girls.yea that's me. guess i'm just a pain in the ass? you know how it goes when you scrape the bottom... you might be the only one here that is incredibly interesting and interested person, and picking up totally interesting girls or your dick is doing all the talking.

good day pita! and i mean day since there is a curfew?

[LittleBigMan]

Really, is that true for all visitors -- they can just walked / drive the streets after curfew? I thought there are some exceptions, eg travel to / from airport but not a general moratorium for visitors? And how does the military distinguish between locals and visitors? How is a visitor defined...a tourist, expats on work visas, etc.?

What do YOU know that the US government doesn't know? I assume you're aware that US intelligence agencies have a significant presence in LOS and know a lot more than normally made public?This is not about US intelligence or the truth as we know from what has happen in Libya and Fast and Furious etc... It is basically Politics 101 for the Embassy here in Thailand. You don't play along no more State dinner invites to you lady?

[Paul Kausch]

Really, is that true for all visitors -- they can just walked / drive the streets after curfew? I thought there are some exceptions, eg travel to / from airport but not a general moratorium for visitors? And how does the military distinguish between locals and visitors? How is a visitor defined...a tourist, expats on work visas, etc.?

What do YOU know that the US government doesn't know? I assume you're aware that US intelligence agencies have a significant presence in LOS and know a lot more than normally made public?Not long after announcing the curfew Prayuth stated who it does not apply to. Who is exempt has been reported in numerous online news sources such as AP; and a video with an English voice over translation of Prayuth making the announcement has been posted on various news sources. Visitors was one of the groups he mentioned; and that is the word he used, or at least that is how it was translated into English. I'm not sure on which one of the news outlets I watched the video. Possibly CNBC. How do they verify whether or not someone is a visitor? I have no idea.

I was being sarcastic. My point was this has to be a deliberate omission. Of course the US government knows damn near everything that goes on in Thailand. I'm just used to my government lying and denying the lying. You know, like the joke, "How do you know when politicians are lying? Their lips are moving.".

[Giotto]

So in order to punish Suthep for not reaching a compromise with the UDD, Prayuth will implement reform before election. .LOL. Looks like that. But all of them can discuss the restroom problem ...

I slowly get the impression that all this will turn out much more serious than 2006. Prayuth is different, as I mentioned before. He does not play games!

We still have a complete TV and information black-out. Yesterday some channels were up for some hours, but right now. NOTHING! (The good news is that somebody stopped the music on the military channel. That's a massive improvement!).

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2014/05/24/thailands-information-war/


What is the military afraid of? The answer is simply not just the dislodged Pheu Thai party, nor the feuding political elites. After all, despite what the army chief claimed as no end in sight, some deals could be made among the elites, especially after an already weakened ruling party following the ousting of its leader Yingluck Shinawatra. Although part of the reason for a quick way out was to ensure some resolution could be achieved before Prayuth could retire in September. Yet, the very short time between the declaration of martial law and the coup did not allow enough time for negotiation to materialize before the military concluded it would take over. It all seemed as though getting the key factions to agree with one another was not the major part of the plan.Absolutely correct, I was wondering about that, too. Just two meetings between the main players. Only dreamer could believe that the problems could be solved in this 2 meetings. A bit more time would have helped. But the general staged the coup. And what we hear about the setup of his administration. It looks to me that we will NOT get a civilian (appointed) PM soon. The junta obviously plans to run the show by themselves "for an extended period of time" (Bernanke).

To pay the farmers first is a clever move. But whether that will convince the farmers to turn away from the red shirts after years of receiving support and massive propaganda injections. I doubt it. It might buy some time though ...


Giotto

[Daddy07]

I went out last night to Walking Street where all the clubs had already opened early at 5 pm in order to dodge the brunt of the curfew which had them all closing at 10 pm; I've never seen the street more crowded and business was booming in the bars.

Yes, the idiotic curfew does apply to everyone, including visitors, farangs, and travelers, but they may transit from the airport to their hotels, and there are other exceptions for certain occupations and activities deemed necessary. All of Pattaya was closed down during the hours after 10 pm to 5 am this morning. The streets were virtually empty. The Thai navy has taken over the Pattaya police department.

I've seen absolutely no signs of of protests, riots, turmoil, violence or anything even close. It's business as usual until the thugs close down the action for curfew which serves no purpose except to show everyone that they're in power and they intend to make matters inconvenient for everyone. There are no good reasons for a curfew as far as I can determine. There are no dangers on the streets of Pattaya, just a lot of frustrated innocent people having to put up with the unnecessary crap from the thugs.

This morning all the True Vision pay TV channels are still blocked and stuffed with military propaganda, but I was able to find a few regular cable TV channels showing cartoons and cooking shows -- no news, nothing worthwhile. What a farce!

[Giotto]

Most TrueVision Channels are back online.

CNN still not ...


Giotto

[Paul Kausch]

Absolutely correct, I was wondering about that, too. Just two meetings between the main players. Only dreamer could believe that the problems could be solved in this 2 meetings. A bit more time would have helped. But the general staged the coup. And what we hear about the setup of his administration. It looks to me that we will NOT get a civilian (appointed) PM soon. The junta obviously plans to run the show by themselves "for an extended period of time" (Bernanke).The two meetings between the warring factions may have been a ruse.

Look at what happened. The first meeting ends and everyone gets a homework assignment, which includes where there is room for compromise in each group's position. A homework assignment was the exact words he used. Interesting choice of words. They come back for the second meeting. As the meeting starts the building is surrounded by the military and several nondescript vans drive up. Prior to the meeting Prayuth tells everyone to not bring their cell phones. To make sure he has the cell phone signals blocked in the room the meeting is being held. Prayuth asks everyone to explain his compromise ideas. Everyone says there is no room for compromise in their positions. He tells some people to leave the room and the rest to stay. He announces the coup. Soldiers enter the room and take everyone who remains away in those vans that just happen to be waiting outside. The leaders of the various factions are now in his custody. He's decapitated all the beasts.

He then tells other people of interest to report to him or face arrest. One by one they are appearing. As they appear he takes them into custody and holds them separately in "safe houses." He says he'll release them in about a week after he has certain things in place, but then none may leave the country. Yingluck is one of the people he is holding. That is something Thaksin must now think about as he makes his next moves. Prayuth also announced that the army was monitoring money flowing out of the country from just before the martial law announcement through and after the coup announcement. He's said they've noticed certain key individuals suddenly sent money out of the country; and they are looking into this. I bet they are looking into a lot more than this: bank accounts, businesses, investment, family members' assets. In Thailand it is illegal for a politician to make excessive personal financial gains while holding office. Insider trading is also illegal and a few days ago two of Thaksin's relatives got whacked for that.

Do you stay and continue fighting? Do you stay watching your wealth stripped away and face the potential of criminal charges being brought against you? Do you flee and face jail if you ever return? Do you capitulate? Interesting choices.

Sound like this was carefully planned and orchestrated.

Don't underestimate Prayuth; and don't be surprised if he's still in charge six months from now. He's said he's prepared to stick around for a year if necessary. Take everything he say's literally. He chooses his words carefully, uses them sparingly and discloses only what he wants people to know.

Also, consider the possibility that all along Suthep may have been nothing more than a pawn.

[Paul Kausch]

At least one organization representing the rice farmers is praising Prayuth for making payments to the rice farmers a highest priority. They are also pointing out that prices are low and there will be a big crop further suppressing prices. Prayuth is being asked to find ways to continue helping the rice farmers as the prices they get for their rice will barely cover costs, if that.

If Prayuth announces a program like crop insurance, which is what Thaksin should have done in the first place, the rice farmers may abandon Thaksin and fall solidly behind Prayuth.

[PinkPearl]

We still have a complete TV and information black-out. Yesterday some channels were up for some hours, but right now. NOTHING!..No complete blackout here in Bangkok. I've been getting at least 3 channels. French, Mandarin & German. The whole time. Even with news of the coup on them.

The curfew appears to be working, achieving its goal. How many have been injured, maimed or killed in the last few days?

[Daddy07]

This article predicts that the curfew in Pattaya will end by Monday at the latest:

http://www.pattayaone.net/pattaya-news/129192/pattaya-curfew-continues-despite-pockets-of-resistance-from-pattaya-red-shirts/

[El Frances]

From Bangkok Post:

In a tweet at around 8 am Saturday, the US-based news agency said in both Thai and English: "CNN wants to hear from the people of Thailand. You can send pictures and videos to http://cnn.it/1dniNMQ #ThaiCoup...

Please credit and share this article with others using this link: http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/411552/cnn-reaches-out-to-thais. View our policies at http://goo.gl/9HgTd and http://goo.gl/ou6Ip..

The first site displays a few videos uploaded by people who are in Thailand.

The second includes interesting comments from readers, including critics about monarchy. I guess it will not last long before the yellow trolls pollute the discussion.

[The Pro]

prayuth just dissolved the senate. the senate is no more.

lots of rep001tered anti-coup protests in bangkok today.

[Giotto]

...
The second includes interesting comments from readers, including critics about monarchy. I guess it will not last long before the yellow trolls pollute the discussion.Sadly I cannot get in there without username and password. I think the red shirt trolls are somehow polluting the entrance!

It is so sad to see this farang idiots (like you) taking sides because they (you) fuck a red bar girl. Guys, why don't you just shut up and let the Thais do what is necessary?

Fuck your red female troll. That's much more fun! The political perspective of your boom partner is most likely at least questionable!


Giotto

[Giotto]

...
If Prayuth announces a program like crop insurance, which is what Thaksin should have done in the first place, the rice farmers may abandon Thaksin and fall solidly behind Prayuth.Dream on!

They will celebrate the coup, they will carry Prayuth on their shoulders until they got their money. And a few days longer ...

And then - when Thaksin calls, they will turn 180 deg. .

Look, we have lots of western educated members of this forum, who will follow Thaksin wherever he goes! Don't expect the farmers to be more clever than those idiots! Goebbels was good! Thaksin not much worse! And those idiots believe all the promises! It's just unbelievable.


Giotto

PS: El Frances, on one of the WebSites the main agitator argues that the King gets US$ 500 Mio. from the Thai government, every year. Can you prove that ?

[Traveler1234]

I'm not a twitter person but find it informative for two things: come NFL football season and more recently with the political situation in LOS, following a former CNN correspondent who now freelances in Bangkok and Thailand: Richard Barrows.

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow

When the first protests started, he created a very accurate map of the hotspots on his blog and has been regularly updating what is happening on the ground. https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=210550963008557722983.0004ea041241da07d86cb&msa=0&ll=13.759728, 100.532455&spn=0.248435,0.363579&dg=feature
What I find useful about his postings are they are apolitical. He isn't taking sides with any party, etc. But only tries to report as accurately as possible the situation in the streets.

For instance, he mentioned a few hours ago that some bars, etc. In Patpong were ignoring the curfew..

Coincidently, he also reported rumors of the curfew being lifted on Wednesday. As some ISG members posted in another thread!

[Paul Kausch]

Dream on!

They will celebrate the coup, they will carry Prayuth on their shoulders until they got their money. And a few days longer ...

And then - when Thaksin calls, they will turn 180 deg. .Giotto,

I'm getting old and like to dream sweet dreams.

There is something to be said for loyalty. .

I think part of the plan is to make it difficult for Thaksin to make that call. It seems Prayuth's rounding up everyone. A couple have fled; one or two are in hiding, with all their assets frozen and banks under orders to turn over the history of all their transactions over the past few months. Prayuth thinks like a general. Duh! He's destroying command centers and disrupting enemy communications. The guy is not dumb.

I'd like to think Prayuth sympathizes with his countrymen in the region he comes from and is creating a party with a plan to further develop the regions of the country and improve the quality of life of Thaksin's supports. They sure deserve it.

It would be clever to develop a third party that woos the masses in the north and northeast. Give Pheu Thai's descendant (Pheu Thai will soon be no more) some competition. With three parties in parliament, Son-of-Pheu Thai, Populist Party for the People (or some such shit) and the Democrats, along with a new and improved constitution, the royalists (or Bangkok elite or whatever you want to call them) will be set. Of course this is a stupid idea that will not happen. These people are much smarter and more successful than me. I've never managed to run, or totally fuck up, a country. My fuck ups may be many but they are smaller.

Is Thailand's future sporadic violence in the south, north and northeast with an occasional bomb going off in Bangkok?

Paul.

[Western787]

This morning I got another email from USA state dept. It recommends US citizens reconsider nonessential travel to Thailand. That is the way they worded it. They made a point of warning about the curfew, but failed to mention it does not apply to travelers.

Last night as I was gorging myself on interviews with the financial and industrial folk, I listened to one interview with the USA's ambassador. Her tone was in stark contrast to everyone else. She acted very grave, lamented how horrible the situation is and kept repeating that people at the highest level are meeting and planning sanctions. Problem is the USA doesn't have much of a club to use against Prayuth. We give something like six million a year to the Thai military. We hold frequent joint exercises with them. The US military sees the Thai military as a valuable ally.

Prayuth has ordered the government to give him 80 billion bahts to pay the rice farmers. I expect as they get their checks a big point will be made that they can thank the general, a man of humble origins from Korat.The Obama Admin loves Thaksin, as what she's been doing to Thailand is what Obama's been doing to america for the last 5 years, an elitist puppet (in this case being directed by her billionaire brother) posing as a populist and preying on the gullible masses by debasing the currency to expand socialism by enacting programs to buy votes, that eventually could bankrupt the country.

Obama only gets away with it because the U.S. dollar is (so far still) the reserve currency of the world

[Paul Kausch]

The Obama Admin loves Thaksin, as what she's been doing to Thailand is what Obama's been doing to america for the last 5 years, an elitist puppet (in this case being directed by her billionaire brother) posing as a populist and preying on the gullible masses by debasing the currency to expand socialism by enacting programs to buy votes, that eventually could bankrupt the country.

Obama only gets away with it because the U.S. dollar is (so far still) the reserve currency of the worldThe world sees what happens when you make an unqualified man prez of the usofa. Can you make any sense of the usa foreign policy? My entire life the muslim bro-hood has been a bunch of terrorists, and then obozo appears to want them running egypt. Then there's libya. Everything he touches he fucks up. The health care system was a mess and he made it worse. None of the real problems were fixed. Don't get me started!

One would think the days of the us$ as the reserve currency are numbered, but that may be a lot of days. I know an economist from argentina who works for a spanish bank. He once told me the reason the dollar has it's position in the world is because we have more aircraft carriers than the rest of the world combined.

As for thailand, we cut our aid by 3.5 million. Big fucking deal.

[El Frances]

sadly i cannot get in there without username and password. i think the red shirt trolls are somehow polluting the entrance!

it is so sad to see this farang idiots (like you) taking sides because they (you) fuck a red bar girl. guys, why don't you just shut up and let the thais do what is necessary?

fuck your red female troll. that's much more fun! the political perspective of your boom partner is most likely at least questionable!


giottoah! ah! thank you for the compliment! much better than armchair quaterback!

i'm not taking side with the reds. i'm happy to see any party ruling this country as long as they are elected (as far as my opinion has the slightest importance). best would be to have an alternance as in other countries, but to this aim the democrat party should be reformed first :).

about king's revenues, i don't know if the fact is true or not. it's just that this type of discussion will not be found in websites located in thailand for obvious reasons. i'm just pointing out here and there some information sources which are different from bangkok post or the nation.
that's the source of the poster in cnn website:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmontlake/2012/01/20/in-thailand-a-rare-peek-at-his-majestys-balance-sheet/

when i talk of yellow shirts trolls, i mean the guys who pollute discussions in bangkok post, or in thaivisa with their propaganda, i.e. yingluck responsible of the death of children, lackeys of thaksin, reform before elections, etc...

another interesting source of another kind:

http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21602759-sudden-move-army-brings-only-near-term-calm-path-throne

cheers!

[Pita123]

I'm happy to see any party ruling this country as long as they are elected (as far as my opinion has the slightest importance). Elected by what means? Mubarak was elected many times. So was Morsi. Which was better for Egypt? Which was better for the world? A 3 year old will always select ice cream for dinner. Best selection?

[Kaintuck]

Elected by what means? Mubarak was elected many times. So was Morsi. Which was better for Egypt? Which was better for the world? A 3 year old will always select ice cream for dinner. Best selection?Elections are over-rated. Ask a Russian.

A Bangkok cab driver once told me an honest man is one who votes for the party that paid him. Like old Chicago, the best government money can buy.

The kleptocracy that Thaksin planned for Thailand just isn't working out. Putin is having better luck. Of course in Russia he controls the army.

[Paul Kausch]

Elections are over-rated.Elections work if the voters are intelligent, well informed, have something to lose if the government they elect screws up; and of course they are not just looking for a handout from the next government. Problem is, I'm struggling to think of a country with an electorate like that today.

[SirWilliam4]

Elections work if the voters are intelligent, well informed, have something to lose if the government they elect screws up; and of course they are not just looking for a handout from the next government. Problem is, I'm struggling to think of a country with an electorate like that today.... When you think of one, please let us know.

[Western787]

One would think the days of the us$ as the reserve currency are numbered, but that may be a lot of days. I know an economist from argentina who works for a spanish bank. He once told me the reason the dollar has it's position in the world is because we have more aircraft carriers than the rest of the world combined. True, its all about power and the ability to use it, however Obama has all but conceded the USA can no longer be THE preeminent military power in the world. And when that goes, so goes the dollar, at least in term of it being THE reserve currency in an of itself. Once that goes the standard of living drops rapidly.

3 essential achievements that let the USA ride the reserve currency (freebie) for 50 years:

1. Winning WW2 (with Russia's help in europe of course).

2, the nuclear bomb.

3. Going to the Moon.

[BionicMan]

... When you think of one, please let us know.He should also report this to the UN so they will try to enroll that country on top of those already part of the UN...as I can't believe that country is sort of it, yet. All the others would not accept it!

[Beno69]

....It is so sad to see this farang idiots (like you) taking sides because they (you) fuck a red bar girl. Guys, why don't you just shut up and let the Thais do what is necessary?..

Giotto100% agree... I can't understand this stupid RED Farangs. Thaksin Clan robbed Thailand for about 12 Years and the Reds speak about 'Respect my Vote' - that the Leader don't loose the Power. Prayuth will clean up this Mess now. If he win Thailand will be a Democracy. If not he has to go to Dubai...

[Paul Kausch]

The Bangkok news reports Chit Lom and Phloenchit BTS are shut down.

About an hour ago the Associated Press reported here (USA) that there were confrontations between large numbers of protesters and the army, with the army blocking the escalators leading up into the shopping malls (I'm guessing Amarin Plaza) in the Ratchaprasong shopping district. It reported gun shots were fired, with no details. The Bangkok news does not report gun shots.

I fear this could delay the lifting of the curfew, if the rumors that it is to be lifted on Wednesday are true.

This confrontation comes as no surprise. Guys posting here have predicted this will get ugly, and could turn worse than in 2010. I hope not but fear it will. Regardless on whose side the casualties occur, lose of life is tragic.

[Gorgon]

The western media has a way of always hearing gun shots. No uproar on twitter about it so we can probably assume it's a bit of "enthusiasm for exiting news".

[Paul Kausch]

The western media has a way of always hearing gun shots. No uproar on twitter about it so we can probably assume it's a bit of "enthusiasm for exiting news".The "western media" has been consistently inaccurate since the protests began late last year. The Bangkok media must muzzle itself or face accusations it is instigating violence. People on both sides of the protests will use twitter to spread propaganda. The world is counting on ISG to give us the naked truth!

Seriously, though our political opinions may be suspect, I'd put as much faith in what guys on ISG have to say about what is really happening with the protests as what the press is reporting.

[Mua Tur]

Subornabhum:

Arrived on 23rd in early afternoon ant 3.30 pm. What a surprise, was it only flight arrived in airport? A few Immigration booth were open and what a pleasing surprise that only one Me in the que. Other booths have with few numbers. What's going on there? Does airlines stopped or changed their regular schedules for subornabhum?

Bar scene for Sio 22:

Some bars opened late morning and some are just early afternoon. But scenes are quite and certainly not usual as regular days before. Very very few visitors, girls in front of massage shops hanging out quietly. No one is there for shouting "Massage, body massage".

Protest in Benchasiri Park, just beside the phromphong BTS:

On 25th afternoon me and my GF (we realized, having sex in afternoon is not a big deal at all. There are more things we have to do in one lovely afternoon other than having sex) went to Benchasiri Park just for a troll. A group of protestors (Red shirt Group) showing their protest against arresting 200 peoples on 22nd. Remove the silence and allow us to speak.

[Traveler1234]

True, its all about power and the ability to use it, however Obama has all but conceded the USA can no longer be THE preeminent military power in the world.With all due respect to you and guys like Paul, stop whining, give up your US citizenship, and retire in LOS.

[El Frances]

Elected by what means? Mubarak was elected many times. So was Morsi. Which was better for Egypt? Which was better for the world? A 3 year old will always select ice cream for dinner. Best selection?Same for Hitler. So what?

[El Frances]

100% agree... I can't understand this stupid RED Farangs. Thaksin Clan robbed Thailand for about 12 Years and the Reds speak about 'Respect my Vote' - that the Leader don't loose the Power. Prayuth will clean up this Mess now. If he win Thailand will be a Democracy. If not he has to go to Dubai...First, what you call red farangs are usually people who just advocate for basic democratic principles. They are not particularly for the reds. Personnaly, I have nothing against the Dems being elected.

As concerns stupidity, I will let readers make their mind while reading your post.

[Paul Kausch]

With all due respect to you and guys like Paul, stop whining, give up your US citizenship, and retire in LOS.Why? Then we'd have nothing to whine about.

[Goatscrot]

True, its all about power and the ability to use it, however Obama has all but conceded the USA can no longer be THE preeminent military power in the world. And when that goes, so goes the dollar, at least in term of it being THE reserve currency in an of itself. Once that goes the standard of living drops rapidly.

3 essential achievements that let the USA ride the reserve currency (freebie) for 50 years:

1. Winning WW2 (with Russia's help in europe of course).

2, the nuclear bomb.

3. Going to the Moon.Correct, no other nation on the planet has flat top carriers. Also no other nation can "invade" the US. That kind of cements the US's position at the top for awhile longer. Really, who is going to threaten it? China? They have huge issues to deal with. Domestically they are a mess. Emerging markets are hitting a bump in the road as well.

Like it or not, and in many ways I don't even though I am American, the US's dominance will continue for a time.

[Giotto]

...
I'm not taking side with the reds. I'm happy to see any party ruling this country as long as they are elected (as far as my opinion has the slightest importance). Best would be to have an alternance as in other countries, but to this aim the democrat party should be reformed first :).
...
When I talk of yellow shirts trolls, I mean the guys who pollute discussions in Bangkok Post, or in Thaivisa with their propaganda, I.e. Yingluck responsible of the death of children, lackeys of Thaksin, reform before elections, etc...
...
Coward!

When you talk about "yellow shirt trolls" you take sides. Same like Andrew McGregor Marshal when he talks about "ultra-royalists". "Royalists" or "yellows" would do. But the word "ultra" takes sides! Like your "trolls".

And I admire your love for democracy and invite you to participate on a "democratic" red shirt meeting in Ayutthaya, listen to the red shirt propaganda machine every day (radio, cars) and visit a "democratic" red village in the North-East. HEIL!

We obviously have a slightly different understanding of what "democracy" is!


Giotto

[Giotto]

Suthep freed, charged with rebellion

http://bangkokpost.com/most-recent/411807/suthep-freed-charged-with-rebellion

11 PDRC leaders released by military, handed over to prosecutors

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/11-PDRC-leaders-released-by-military-handed-over-t-30234612.html

Let's wait and see ...


Giotto

[GoodEnough]

Coward!

When you talk about "yellow shirt trolls" you take sides. Same like Andrew McGregor Marshal when he talks about "ultra-royalists". "Royalists" or "yellows" would do. But the word "ultra" takes sides! Like your "trolls".

And I admire your love for democracy and invite you to participate on a "democratic" red shirt meeting in Ayutthaya, listen to the red shirt propaganda machine every day (radio, cars) and visit a "democratic" red village in the North-East. HEIL!

We obviously have a slightly different understanding of what "democracy" is!


GiottoMaybe we could send over a group of Filipino politicians who could instruct everyone--reds and yellows alike--on the nuances of true democracy that has produced the success story that is the Philippines.

GE.

[Traveler1234]

Maybe we could send over a group of Filipino politicians who could instruct everyone--reds and yellows alike--on the nuances of true democracy that has produced the success story that is the Philippines.
GE.Please -- no! LOL :D

[Giotto]

Farmers happy as rice payments begin

http://bangkokpost.com/news/local/411858/baac-promises-b90bn-in-oustanding-payments-over-next-month

Lohohoool.

It's not that the the army or the yellows cannot learn from Thaksin's propaganda machine ... they can!


...
As concerns stupidity, I will let readers make their mind while reading your post.
What the country does not need is Veera's arrogance when insisting endlessly on "democratic" elections [trying to teach Gen. Prayuth a lesson] - and El Frances arrogance of dealing with other posters that are no native English speakers.

Both - in the same way disgusting! Basic red primitive thinking.


Giotto

[Giotto]

Maybe we could send over a group of Filipino politicians who could instruct everyone--reds and yellows alike--on the nuances of true democracy that has produced the success story that is the Philippines.

GE.Please -- yes! LOL.

In exchange for all yellow and red Thai polititians! Good bye, PI!


Giotto

P.S.: We could add some farang "consultants" of the reds, as a gift. No extra costs!

[LukeSkywalker]

Hi Giotto,

This guy Suthep must be severely penalized for inciting the crowd to cause disorders, inconvenience and potential security risks to the people of Thailand.

The military junta should push the justice system to track down and penalize every participants in the riot to make sure the population understand they must obey the laws or they will get fucked!

What happened to ex Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra? She is one good-looking lady that should be the symbol of modern Thailand.

Sorry to hear you are out of the Livingstone lodge.


Suthep freed, charged with rebellion

http://bangkokpost.com/most-recent/411807/suthep-freed-charged-with-rebellion

11 PDRC leaders released by military, handed over to prosecutors

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/11-PDRC-leaders-released-by-military-handed-over-t-30234612.html

Let's wait and see ...


Giotto

[Giotto]

Hi Giotto,

This guy Suthep must be severely penalized for inciting the crowd to cause disorders, inconvenience and potential security risks to the people of Thailand.

The military junta should push the justice system to track down and penalize every participants in the riot to make sure the population understand they must obey the laws or they will get fucked!

What happened to ex Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra? She is one good-looking lady that should be the symbol of modern Thailand.

Sorry to hear you are out of the Livingstone lodge.Luke,

Suthep - agreed, put him together with Chalerm in a cell and lose the key! Rotten stinking criminal subjects, same as Thaksin, they should be jailed and never released!

Right now the junta just releases everybody step by step. But if there are outstanding arrest warrents (as for Suthep) the released persons are brought to the attorney general who then makes further decisions. In my POV quite a good procedure.

I heard nothing about the release of Jatuporn - and I am waiting for that. This is the moment of truth. If they let him go they take the risk that he will organize red shirt resistance. If they don't let him go they treat yellows and reds differently. Will be interesting to see how they deal with this problem.

Ex PM Yingluck was released already. And she should be home now. Whether she is a symbol of the modern Thailand only because she is relatively good looking for her age of 46 - I don't know. She did a lot of damage to the country being the proxy PM for her brother. I think its time for her to keep a very very very low profile and support the junta with information as good as she can. And then - her name should not be mentioned in "modern Thailand" any more. Let her have a quiet life without prison, if she does not make any problems.

As for the justice system - that's a big problem, and if the junta really tackles this I take my hat off. They basically have to send all judges of the constitutional court home (early retirement) - but they cannot do that because those judges are directly appointed by The King. Still - I agree that this would be really necessary.

Believe me, it will NOT happen.


Giotto

[El Frances]

Wow! It's my day! .

1- It's not me who has started calling me and others "stupid". Isn't thinking that the others are stupid arrogance? As concerns this particular post, I was refering to the content of the post, not the English language. By the way, I'm not native English speaker either.

2 - From Merriam-Webster (but the others are similar), Definition of Democracy.

A: government by the people; especially: rule of the majority.

Be: a government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised by them directly or indirectly through a system of representation usually involving periodically held free elections.

The reds may not be better than the others, they may just have been lucky to be elected and not deserve it. They have been elected and the others have not. And consistently over the years. Including during elections organised by the yellows, according to rules defined by the yellows (yellow meant here in a broad sense), such as when Yingluck has been elected.

[Giotto]

Wow! It's my day! .

1- It's not me who has started calling me and others "stupid". Isn't thinking that the others are stupid arrogance? As concerns this particular post, I was refering to the content of the post, not the English language. By the way, I'm not native English speaker either.

2 - From Merriam-Webster (but the others are similar), Definition of Democracy.

A: government by the people; especially: rule of the majority.

Be: a government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised by them directly or indirectly through a system of representation usually involving periodically held free elections.

The reds may not be better than the others, they may just have been lucky to be elected and not deserve it. They have been elected and the others have not. And consistently over the years. Including during elections organised by the yellows, according to rules defined by the yellows (yellow meant here in a broad sense), such as when Yingluck has been elected.Look, El Frances.

You can try to hide behind books, but the reality of Thaksins "democracy" and the red shirts ideology is:

THE WINNER TAKES IT ALL.

And whether you are a native English speaker or not - some posters here are not that good in expressing themselves in English language. No reason to refer to stupidity in such a case. And that's exactly what you did.

You statement and your approach to issues here is just one sided and quite dumb. I especially remind you of your Hitler post below!


Giotto

PS: And no, to think that "others are stupid" is not necessarily arrogance. Some people are definitely stupid!

[El Frances]

Look, El Frances.

You can try to hide behind books, but the reality of Thaksins "democracy" and the red shirts ideology is:

THE WINNER TAKES IT ALL.

And whether you are a native English speaker or not - some posters here are not that good in expressing themselves in English language. No reason to refer to stupidity in such a case. And that's exactly what you did.

You statement and your approach to issues here is just one sided and quite dumb. I especially remind you of your Hitler post below!


Giotto

PS: And no, to think that "others are stupid" is not necessarily arrogance. Some people are definitely stupid!OK, you are right!

[Run Mann]

What happened to ex Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra? She is one good-looking lady that should be the symbol of modern Thailand.

If the metric for her being the model of modern Thailand is her looks, she will have to get in a long line of Thais who are ahead of her. Unless she's done something else to deserve such praise, but what would that be?

[PinkPearl]

It's a bad time to invest in Thailand:

"Why you shouldn't scoop up Thailand stocks".

"To contextualize, the Global Financial Crisis is the only period in the past decade where Thailand has had a larger magnitude of earnings cuts than now," it said. "The current EPS (earnings per share) downgrade cycle is likely to extend further.".

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-shouldnt-scoop-thailand-stocks-013604160.html

[DRRonin]

100% agree... I can't understand this stupid RED Farangs. Thaksin Clan robbed Thailand for about 12 Years and the Reds speak about 'Respect my Vote' - that the Leader don't loose the Power. Prayuth will clean up this Mess now. If he win Thailand will be a Democracy. If not he has to go to Dubai...I guess I don't understand stupid pro-coup Farangs. If you could tell me what gives any of you any confidence that the military will do a good job I would love to know. I would love to know anything that shows that the Thai military has any competence at anything other than coups. Please let me know. They certainly can't run a country as they have shown many times in the past.

They are as corrupt as any other segment of the Thai power structure. Find me a General who doesn't have a bank book like a fatted calf and a huge house with Mercedes in the drive way. There are more Generals in the Thai army than in the USA military. And they are all rich. From illegal activities or graft. Some of the documents that were released by Bradley Manning had memos from the US saying that the Thai military was one of the most badly run militaries in the world and was basically useless at actually fighting. Only good at coups against unarmed people. Show me anything that they have done well. Ever. The military is one of the major reasons that Thailand is so screwed up. They will not and have never allowed democracy to grow in this country. Any time things get a little messy they step in and abort it and make sure that their interests and the Crown's interests are taken care of.

Remember a few months back when Prayuth told the press that he hadn't decided whether a coup would be needed. And he stayed in office. Can you imagine any democracy where a General talks about having a coup and he is not immediately dismissed? Not in Thailand. Because this country has always been run by the Generals and the Palace. Also remember the last coup? Did the military fix anything that time? So what makes you think they will this time when things have gotten ever so much more complicated? Thailand will never have a successful democracy until their military is totally subservient to the civilian government but that time will not come soon.

[Paul Kausch]

Paying rice farmers; creating a budget; fixing income tax rates; developing economic stimulus programs; shaking up the state enterprises; moving (or threatening to move) people in key regional posts; talking to village leaders and removing Pheu Thai signage; arresting the men who murdered the children outside their parents store front; raiding and seizing more weapon stockpiles; it looks like Prayuth isn't kidding about "cleaning" things up.

People are speculating how long he will stick around. He already answered that shortly after he declared the coup. He said he will stay on as long as necessary, even if that means he is running things a year (his words) after his retirement date.

I'm discounting the rumor about the curfew being lifted on Wednesday. Hope I'm wrong.

I hear the bars are staying open later and the working girls are having no problem getting around after curfew.

[Western787]

I guess I don't understand stupid pro-coup Farangs. If you could tell me what gives any of you any confidence that the military will do a good job I would love to know. I would love to know anything that shows that the Thai military has any competence at anything other than coups. Please let me know. They certainly can't run a country as they have shown many times in the past.

Actually Bangkok and Thailand as they exist today are all the proof you need: with Bangkok the #1 city in the world for international tourists, a world class city in many ways, and the commerce and business center of southeast asia, a city in fact most Thais take a great deal of pride in, and a country that has highest standard of living of any of the mainland southeast asian countries, far surpassing Laos, Burma, Cambodia, and Vietnam, yet since 1932 there have been 18 coups.

In Thailand these (for the most part benign) coups have been led by Generals doing what they believed was in the best interest of nation, and while such coups are a choice of last resort, the track record is in fact quite good.

[Pita123]

Thailand will never have a successful democracy until their military is totally subservient to the civilian government but that time will not come soon.Is the goal a successful country or a successful democracy? Is Singapore successful? How democratic is it? How about India? China?

[DRRonin]

Actually Bangkok and Thailand as they exist today are all the proof you need: with Bangkok the #1 city in the world for international tourists, a world class city in many ways, and the commerce and business center of southeast asia, a city in fact most Thais take a great deal of pride in, and a country that has highest standard of living of any of the mainland southeast asian countries, far surpassing Laos, Burma, Cambodia, and Vietnam, yet since 1932 there have been 18 coups.

In Thailand these (for the most part benign) coups have been led by Generals doing what they believed was in the best interest of nation, and while such coups are a choice of last resort, the track record is in fact quite good.Good lord man. Have you drunk the Kool-Aid? Yes the best interest of the nation as long as it is also in their best interest. They like the police are basically a business enterprise. Nearly all the military coups going back to 1932 had very little to do with "the best interests of the country". It was all about a power grab. Please read the King Never Smiles before you spout such nonsense. If you think the military is some benevolent Big Brother you are deluded. This too is a power grab. For them and for certain elements in the Royal family. Prayuth showed his colors so to speak during the Red Protests a few years ago when he lobbied to use violence to remove them. Oddly he never did that with the recent protests. I wonder why. Strange that the coup actually occurred when their was basically very little violence going on in the country. I wonder why? Could it be that the hoped for violence between the Reds and the Yellows never came about so they finally just said screw it. We will have a coup any way. How many democracies have gone through periods when nothing could get done. The USA is there now. Italy for generations. No doubt people like you would like the military to take over and do things right!

Yes this is the great military that has done such a wonderful job bringing peace to the South. But sure they can fix Thailand's problems.

Bangkok is a wonderful city and much of that has occurred under the governments of the group that so many seem to hate on these pages. The military was wise enough to basically get out of the way of the economic juggernaut and just put their hand out for the corrupt money that came their way. They have had no hand in the success of Thailand's economy. In fact all their fiddling and coups has hurt it and the reputation of this country.

You have to understand that the reason no compromise can ever be made politically is because one party who is vastly in the minority knows it doesn't have to compromise. Why? Because they know sooner or later either the courts or the military will step in to dissolve the elected representatives. If they did not know this was going to happen, they might actually act responsibly like political parties do in most democracies and try to compromise or heavens above actually try to do something for the great majority of the country. Instead they hate the people of Issan so much that they would rather have the military running the country than a government that was elected by them. Just like the Miss Universe Thailand some would just like all the Red Shirt scum executed.

[DRRonin]

Is the goal a successful country or a successful democracy? Is Singapore successful? How democratic is it? How about India? China?Gee whiz I think you can have both. You tell me how many governments out there that are run by the military are doing real well.

[Pita123]

Gee whiz I think you can have both. You tell me how many governments out there that are run by the military are doing real well.Nobody is suggesting that having the Thai military run the govt is the right thing for Thailand. But that doesn't mean that American / Australian democracy is good for the country currently either. Democracy is a means to an end. Socialism can also be a means to and end. What in the West is seen as corruption can help a country or people get from point A to Point B. It can also destroy everything. Singapore didn't get to where it is today by holding referendums and elections with the most popular folks running the show. It has been single party rule all these years. But those people have had a goal of bringing the country to where it is today. They have amassed fortunes which isn't discussed publicly. Now that the population has been brought up to where they are today, they are starting to demand more of the politicians and the ruling party is starting to see that they won't have such a strong hold much longer. 2-3 election cycles and we should see more of a multiparty system in Singapore.

In my extremely uneducated opinion, Thailand isn't ready for multiparty Democracy as they simply don't have the experience with holding people accountable and making sure that they have long term interests in mind. They will continue to vote for the wrong people, be they red or yellow, and not hold their feet to the flames.

Can Prayuth be someone to devise a system which will work for 20 years and ensure enough public input but also guidance from a wise hand? We know who that wise hand should be. That doesn't seem viable at the moment.

I don't know the answer. What I do know is that all these Westerners who are crying out about Democracy and elections are clueless about reality. Look at Egypt. Muslim Brotherhood good for Egypt? Good for the world? How is Iraq's democratic elections working out? Saddam was a rat bastard, but things were more stable. Putin was also elected. No?

The Democracy we know in the west worked because we had traditions and norms which made it possible to develop. Thailand has a tradition based around subservience. You see this in ever facet if society. Public and private sectors. Western democracy is not suited for Thailand today.

[DRRonin]

Nobody is suggesting that having the Thai military run the govt is the right thing for Thailand. But that doesn't mean that American / Australian democracy is good for the country currently either. Democracy is a means to an end. Socialism can also be a means to and end. What in the West is seen as corruption can help a country or people get from point A to Point B. It can also destroy everything. Singapore didn't get to where it is today by holding referendums and elections with the most popular folks running the show. It has been single party rule all these years. But those people have had a goal of bringing the country to where it is today. They have amassed fortunes which isn't discussed publicly. Now that the population has been brought up to where they are today, they are starting to demand more of the politicians and the ruling party is starting to see that they won't have such a strong hold much longer. 2-3 election cycles and we should see more of a multiparty system in Singapore.

In my extremely uneducated opinion, Thailand isn't ready for multiparty Democracy as they simply don't have the experience with holding people accountable and making sure that they have long term interests in mind. They will continue to vote for the wrong people, be they red or yellow, and not hold their feet to the flames.

Can Prayuth be someone to devise a system which will work for 20 years and ensure enough public input but also guidance from a wise hand? We know who that wise hand should be. That doesn't seem viable at the moment.

I don't know the answer. What I do know is that all these Westerners who are crying out about Democracy and elections are clueless about reality. Look at Egypt. Muslim Brotherhood good for Egypt? Good for the world? How is Iraq's democratic elections working out? Saddam was a rat bastard, but things were more stable. Putin was also elected. No?

The Democracy we know in the west worked because we had traditions and norms which made it possible to develop. Thailand has a tradition based around subservience. You see this in ever facet if society. Public and private sectors. Western democracy is not suited for Thailand today.I would agree with much of what you say but I actually think Thailand has a much better chance of being a successful democracy than the examples you point to. Democracy often doesn't work in countries that are severely divided by religion, tribe or ethnicity because that will always be the main driver of how individuals vote. Certainly religion is not a factor here. Ethnicity is to some degree but not as largely as in so many countries that have fallen apart over the past 20 years. Most Thai's consider themselves Thai before they do a tribal or ethnic designation. Most Thai's love Thailand and love the King. I just don't see the usual divisions that other problem countries have. I think they can be overcome by compromise and time.

But they have to be given an opportunity to do so. They have to be allowed to work it out without the military constantly meddling and often aborting governments. As I said before. In most democracies when you keep losing elections you begin to broaden your appeal so that you can win elections. It happens everywhere (except the Republicans of course!) But the opposition has not done so because they know sooner or later the military or the courts will step in to do their dirty work for them. If you actually had two parties fighting for the same votes then the electorate would hopefully throw the bums out when they screw up like they did with the rice deal. But the folks in Issan have absolutely no reason to vote for the other party because they know they despise them and are in the pockets of the elite.

This General may have the best intentions but there is no solution that can be mandated. If he eventually goes back to elections then the same party will win and the opposition party will begin their protests again. If he comes up with a new Constitution that is not majority rule and basically gives the Yellows power they have not earned it will create a firestorm. I don't see any way out for this guy other than holding on to power and from the past we can be reasonably sure the military in Thailand will screw it up because they always do. These are not the Best and the Brightest. They are basically crooks with connections who got into the military.

[Giotto]

...
You have to understand that the reason no compromise can ever be made politically is because one party who is vastly in the minority knows it doesn't have to compromise. Why? Because they know sooner or later either the courts or the military will step in to dissolve the elected representatives. If they did not know this was going to happen, they might actually act responsibly like political parties do in most democracies and try to compromise or heavens above actually try to do something for the great majority of the country. Instead they hate the people of Issan so much that they would rather have the military running the country than a government that was elected by them. Just like the Miss Universe Thailand some would just like all the Red Shirt scum executed.I basically agree with most of what you wrote in your posts below. Many governments implemented by the military after coups were not very successful and competent (especially after the coup 2006).

Nevertheless - in the quoted chapter above you only mention one side of the coin, and I am also not so sure that the DC really expected and wanted another coup after the disastrous 2006 experience. Furthermore - not having to compromise is in this case not a single sided behavior. The reds also did not want to compromise until the last moment because they knew they will win all coming elections based on the actual election system. Why should they then compromise?

Certain basics and necessities of a functioning "democracy" haven't been understood on both sides of the political spectrum: the usage and generation of compromises as a basic tool in a democratic process and the necessity to protect minorities as a basic principle.


Giotto

[PinkPearl]

I hear the bars are staying open later and the working girls are having no problem getting around after curfew.All the girls I know from the streets are going home early around 8 or 9 in the evenings. Out of respect for the curfew deadline. They are also coming to work earlier, so the pickings then are improved.

Several BTW have spoken of taxi drivers gouging their prices, charging 500 even 1000 baht.

[Western787]

If you could tell me what gives any of you any confidence that the military will do a good job I would love to know. Question asked and questioned answered. Thai coups (like it or not) have been integral to Thailand's success. Nor am I about to tell them how to run their own country.

As far as "drinking the Kool Aid", I don't see it on the Took Lae Dee menu yet, but I do drink the milkshakes, not bad for 51 bahts.

[Western787]

Yes this is the great military that has done such a wonderful job bringing peace to the South. But sure they can fix Thailand's problems.

Probably a 1000 years from now the Muslims will still be fighting in the south, as it seems the "religion of peace" is involved in the vast majority of conflicts in the world. So it has little to do with Thai military. Nor do they ever seem to have any interest in peace.

Partial list of conflicts involving Islam:

Algeria, Tunisia- civil wars.

Chad, Sudan (Darfur).

Somalia, Erithrea / Ethiopia.

Nigeria.

Western Sahara / Morocco.

Yemen-(ongoing)

Iraq, Iran, Turkey / Kurds,

Israel / Palestine.

Cyprus.

Pakistan / India.

Sri Lanka / Tamils.

Thailand.

Indonesia.

Phillipines.

China / Ujgurs.

Russia / Chetchens.

AlLbania / Serbia / Kosovo.

Thailand -multiple decades, but since year 2004 over 6000 deaths, in an ethnic separatist insurgency involving Malay Muslims

[TimTimGuy]

The Democracy we know in the west worked because we had traditions and norms which made it possible to develop. Thailand has a tradition based around subservience. You see this in ever facet if society. Public and private sectors. Western democracy is not suited for Thailand today.First, Pita, I am not picking on you, and in fact agree with most of your post.

I've sat back in utter amazement at the bantering about "democracy" in this forum. The issues and context are not about votes or voting. What works in the USA, and much of the West, is not just voting -- it's a system of checks and balances that gives the government great difficulty in getting anything done. Yes, gridlock in Washington DC is very frustrating, but the US founding fathers deliberately created ways that the gridlock could prevent dumb ass ideas -- coup anyone? --from being turned into reality.

I remember watching a new program covering the US Senate's actions to block something a few years ago. The so-called experts were tsk-tsking the ability of "a few Senators" representing a small percentage of the USA population could "thwart the will of the majority". Duh! The Senate, as one of the branches of the federal government, was designed to do *exactly* that -- protect the rights of the minority.

We have ways to remove federal officers, including the chief executive officer, but those ways involve presentation of clear and objective (well, usually...) proof, and a trial. Some beaucrat cannot yell "nepotism" and bring down a government.

Thailand is on a very slippery down-hill slope toward a military dictatorship. The check-and-balance there is not a loyal if grudging acceptance of the civilian authority as supreme, but rather a potential unwillingness of troops to use (lethal) force against neighbors and kin. Another post (Paul?) noted that the military was planning for containing any violence to the northeast or north. The "containment" plan is probably to ignor it. To do otherwise might risk a mutiny and that risks civil war.

Ok, my rant is done. Random parting comments...I've lived in Thailand on-and-off for 15 years and have business interests there. I also understand both government and military practices -- in more than a few countries -- medium well, from practical experience. I'm reminded of the Winston Churchill remark, to the effect that "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time." Using a military coup to establish democracy is, as a saying in my youth, like fucking to promote virginity. TTG.

[Kerrstar]

Partial list of conflicts involving Islam: Don't forget Myanmar (Burma), in the North-West state of Rankine.

[Gorgon]

More and more whispers about the coup in part being to safe guard the nation for "the big event" relating to the throne. Keeping the wolves in check might not be a bad thing. You could buy a lot of som tam with the crown property bureau assets.

[Goatscrot]

First, Pita, I am not picking on you, and in fact agree with most of your post.

I've sat back in utter amazement at the bantering about "democracy" in this forum. The issues and context are not about votes or voting. What works in the USA, and much of the West, is not just voting -- it's a system of checks and balances that gives the government great difficulty in getting anything done. Yes, gridlock in Washington DC is very frustrating, but the US founding fathers deliberately created ways that the gridlock could prevent dumb ass ideas -- coup anyone? --from being turned into reality.

I remember watching a new program covering the US Senate's actions to block something a few years ago. The so-called experts were tsk-tsking the ability of "a few Senators" representing a small percentage of the USA population could "thwart the will of the majority". Duh! The Senate, as one of the branches of the federal government, was designed to do *exactly* that -- protect the rights of the minority.

We have ways to remove federal officers, including the chief executive officer, but those ways involve presentation of clear and objective (well, usually...) proof, and a trial. Some beaucrat cannot yell "nepotism" and bring down a government.

Thailand is on a very slippery down-hill slope toward a military dictatorship. The check-and-balance there is not a loyal if grudging acceptance of the civilian authority as supreme, but rather a potential unwillingness of troops to use (lethal) force against neighbors and kin. Another post (Paul?) noted that the military was planning for containing any violence to the northeast or north. The "containment" plan is probably to ignor it. To do otherwise might risk a mutiny and that risks civil war.

Ok, my rant is done. Random parting comments...I've lived in Thailand on-and-off for 15 years and have business interests there. I also understand both government and military practices -- in more than a few countries -- medium well, from practical experience. I'm reminded of the Winston Churchill remark, to the effect that "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time." Using a military coup to establish democracy is, as a saying in my youth, like fucking to promote virginity. TTG.Perfect! So well stated.

[DRRonin]

Question asked and questioned answered. Thai coups (like it or not) have been integral to Thailand's success. Nor am I about to tell them how to run their own country. I thought this forum and others like it were here to do exactly that. Tell them how to run the country! That's why we have opinions and at least outside of Thailand now the right to spout them right or wrong!

As to coup's being integral to Thailand's success, I would like to see some evidence of that. I tend to doubt it very much, but it is impossible to say because we have no way to know where Thailand would be if they had not occurred. The one in 1932 tried to delegitimize the King and made the country into a military dictatorship. The one in 1957 basically continued the military dictatorship but saw great advantage to allowing the Royal family to help unify the country and allowed them to become very wealthy. Then in order to get goodies from the USA the military allowed the USA to establish various bases in Thailand and get involved in the anti-communist fight. Oh they made lots and lots of money during those years. The presence of the US military of course led to the farang sex business in Thailand in which the military also had their hands out.

Then there was the slaughter of the student protestors in 1973. Another proud chapter in the history if the Thai military. In all these years Thailand basically was a third world country with slow progress equal to their neighbors. 1997 could be called the true beginning of Thai democracy when both houses of government were elected by the people. Now it has been in these past 17 years in which the economy of Thailand has really jump started. The years when the military did NOT rule directly. So you tell me how the military rule has been so beneficial to this country? What is their value. Thailand has no enemies. Just a Muslim rebellion to the south in which the military has been useless to stop. I am just baffled by this pro-military, pro-coup stance. These guys are an organized crime group by any other name.

[DRRonin]

I basically agree with most of what you wrote in your posts below. Many governments implemented by the military after coups were not very successful and competent (especially after the coup 2006).

Nevertheless - in the quoted chapter above you only mention one side of the coin, and I am also not so sure that the DC really expected and wanted another coup after the disastrous 2006 experience. Furthermore - not having to compromise is in this case not a single sided behavior. The reds also did not want to compromise until the last moment because they knew they will win all coming elections based on the actual election system. Why should they then compromise?

Certain basics and necessities of a functioning "democracy" haven't been understood on both sides of the political spectrum: the usage and generation of compromises as a basic tool in a democratic process and the necessity to protect minorities as a basic principle.


GiottoYes it would be good if both sides were willing to compromise. Perhaps as stated in a post below there needs to be more checks and balances in the system. But still I'd like to know what majorities in what countries. Especially one as large as this one was. Worry about compromising all the time? Exactly. Why would they. They have a mandate to rule and when parties have a large mandate to rule, that is what they do. It is the responsibility of the minority party to appeal to a larger segment of the population so that they are no longer the minority party. That is how democracies work everywhere. Why should it be different in Thailand. But instead of doing that the minority party does every thing they can to destabilize the country in order to bring on a change of government. And they continue to be rewarded for this behavior. There are reasons for that.

[Giotto]

http://bangkokpost.com/most-recent/412082/new-curfew-midnight-4am


Giotto

[Giotto]

...
They have a mandate to rule and when parties have a large mandate to rule, that is what they do. It is the responsibility of the minority party to appeal to a larger segment of the population so that they are no longer the minority party. That is how democracies work everywhere. Why should it be different in Thailand. But instead of doing that the minority party does every thing they can to destabilize the country in order to bring on a change of government. And they continue to be rewarded for this behavior. There are reasons for that.Agreed.

The so-called opposition in this country is a disaster. We all know the reasons.


Giotto

[Giotto]

http://bangkokpost.com/news/local/412074/prawit-somkid-pridiyathorn-named-advisers

To those who do not understand the importance of this article: There are reds AND yellows in this team.


Giotto

[Paul Kausch]

http://bangkokpost.com/news/local/412074/prawit-somkid-pridiyathorn-named-advisers

To those who do not understand the importance of this article: There are reds AND yellows in this team.


GiottoI read the article a couple of hour ago, but I know nothing about the individuals. Interesting that it is an "integrated" team. I would appreciate it if you would elaborate and explain what you know about the individuals and the post the various individuals are assigned. Do you detect a pattern in the roles assigned to people of each color?

[JesseJames]

Then there was the slaughter of the student protestors in 1973. Another proud chapter in the history if the Thai military.

Then there was Kent State University, Ohio, 1970. Four students shot dead by the Ohio National Guard heroes. Another proud chapter of the American military.

[JesseJames]

(QUOTE=DRRonin;1572847]I thought this forum and others like it were here to do exactly that. Tell them how to run the country! That's why we have opinions and at least outside of Thailand now the right to spout them right or wrong! Then there was the slaughter of the student protestors in 1973. Another proud chapter in the history if the Thai military).

The Ohio National Guard slaughtered the Kent state anti Vietnam war unarmed students, in 1970,3 years later, the Thais shot their students.

[DRRonin]

Then there was the slaughter of the student protestors in 1973. Another proud chapter in the history if the Thai military.

Then there was Kent State University, Ohio, 1970. Four students shot dead by the Ohio National Guard heroes. Another proud chapter of the American military.Yes that was actually the event that turned me strongly against the Vietnam war. When you start shooting your own you know things are very very wrong.

[Paul Kausch]

http://bangkokpost.com/news/local/412074/prawit-somkid-pridiyathorn-named-advisers

To those who do not understand the importance of this article: There are reds AND yellows in this team.


GiottoDid a little research on these men. Some things I noted are:

1. There are a lot of generals. Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, Gen Anupong Paojinda and Gen Daopong Rattanasuwan played important roles in the events of 2010.

2. Somkid Jatusripitak was a co-founder of Thai Rak Thai and has been called "the man behind Thaksinomics." He was the mastermind of the populist policies that helped propel the Thai Rak Thai party to a landslide election victory in 2001. I was lazy and plagiarized Wikipedia. I notice his position is foreign affairs (hmmm).

3. M. R. Pridiyathorn Devakula was a major critic of Yingluck, the rice scheme and has been calling for the appointment of a "neutral" unelected government. He will be the economy czar.

4. Visanu Krue-ngam was a deputy prime minister under Thaksin and his role is to administer laws and justice.

Numerically this council is heavily tilted towards the yellow. One of the two reds on the council, Somkid, will not be directly involved in economic programs, even though it would appear this fits his background. Visanu's post is surprising, or perhaps not.

This is interesting and will be fun to follow.

[Giotto]

Chaturon was arrested yesterday. He was one of the care-taker government that did not report to the army after being ordered to do so.

http://bangkokpost.com/news/local/412047/chaturon-arrested-at-fcct

Chaturon is one of the "Octobrists", left-wing political activists that were involved in the bloody events of the Octobers 1973 and 1976. Dr. Weng (UDD) is an octobrist as well, and Seksan Prasertkul should be mentioned.

Many of the "Octobrists" disappeared in the CPT and the jungle for years, fighting against the establishment / army. The movie "The Moonhunter" tells a part of the story.

Below a dissertation titled:

The Rise of the Octobrists: Power and Conflict among Former Left Wing Student Activists in Contemporary Thai Politics

http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/503/1/Kanokrat_The%20Rise%20of%20the%20Octobrists.pdf

Its an interesting read. The Octobrists popped up again in the 90's, and many of them supported the rising TRT and even took positions in the Thaksin government. Later then they split up and took opposing positions, some of them in the UDD and others even with the PAD!


Giotto

[Paul Kausch]

Prayuth continues to reshuffle the government. He is moving 8 provincial governors and 16 police officials in red shirt strongholds to other assignments and replacing them with his men. His brother, I believe it was the same one who was heading the army in Issan is now in the north focusing his attention on Chaiang Mai. Prayuth has also frozen Prasit Chaisrisa and Sombat Boonngam-anong assets and banning all financial and asset transactions with these men.

[DRRonin]

There has been much discussion here about the difficulty of finding a solution to this impasse that is largely regional based, North vs South, and I was wondering whether one possible thing they could do is change the concept of the family register. As best I understand it a Thai family has a Family Register (Tabien Baan) that keeps track of the family and marriages, deaths and births but is also used for other legal matters such as being drafted into the military and for voting. I believe that no matter where a person lives in Thailand they have to vote where the Family Register is. So people from Issan have to go home to vote as well as everyone else in Thailand. It sounds to me that if this is the case it produces a sense of identity to a region rather than to a nation. If people voted based on where they actually live (often for decades) as opposed to where the family register is I would think over time people would begin to identify with where they voted and that would change voting patterns and perhaps break up what is an institutionalized regional bias. It would also force politicians to appeal to a broader segment of the population. No idea if this makes sense but thought I would throw it out there.

[Gorgon]

My arm chair response is that I think it will matter less than one might think. A computerized population register could be useful for many reasons though. The "you need two witnesses and a copy of the <colour book" systems surely needs to pass in a modern society.

With the older generations still raising the small children in many cases, there is a strong tie back to the family origins. Free state child care based on residence might do more in this case. Free as in free and not in financed by the teachers forcing the students to buy shit.

[Paul Kausch]

I was reading the following article on AsiaOne, the Singaporean online newspaper.

http://news.asiaone.com/news/asia/thai-military-seeks-facebook-google-cooperation-censorship

This section caught my attention.

The military plans to consolidate the 15 private and state-run Internet gateways into one single national gateway to facilitate monitoring. "We will have a single gateway to monitor inflow and outflow of content on the Internet... The main reason is for security," Pisit told Reuters. He said it was unlikely the gateway would be completed before the end of the year."

[Giotto]

Abhisit warns junta: No amnesty

http://bangkokpost.com/most-recent/412583/abhisit-warns-junta-no-amnesty

The world definitely NEEDS Abhisits advice! He has proven his competence in his role as one of the most hypocritical and idiotic politicians Thailand has ever seen. But instead of retiring, dissolving himself, moving into a geriatric clinic for maniac politicians or just ... shutting up he pops up again and again.

A few days ago he apologized on Facebook that he had not done enough to avoid the coup. That's a viewpoint. Correct is that he has done a lot that the coup finally took place!

In this piece one can read:


...
The NCPO should also create a better political system and change the behaviour of politicians and their parties, Mr Abhisit said.
...

In this regards I would like to add the idea that political parties (usually having the purpose of competing in elections for the votes of the people) should be dissolved if they BOYCOTT or even HINDER elections for what reason ever. Political leaders of those parties should be banned from politics for lifetime!

What's about this, Mr. Abhisit?


Giotto

[Tiger 888]

Abhisit warns junta: No amnesty
...What's about this, Mr. Abhisit?
GiottoWrong spelling. Shouldn't this read Abishit?

[Western787]

By acting now, there is at least a chance.

New elections timetable is about one year, with some stabilization estimated by late summer. That means they got a fair chance to get a normal high season starting in November. If the economy goes down, everybody gets hurt, so the plan makes sense. Now of course the Redshirts IMHO will be looking to incite violence right before the high season, so that will be the trick, maintaining peace.

http://news.yahoo.com/thai-junta-elections-could-more-1-004155755.html

[The Pro]

Essential reading as things progress.

This from Dec 2013. Keep an eye on the names talked about in the days ahead, a Mr Prawit being the big name.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/13/us-thailand-protest-military-idUSBRE9BC0PB20131213?irpc=932Notice how correct this Reuters December article was.

Prawit and Annupong were the main men behind the PDRC. And now both of them are appointed senior advisors to the coup group.

Thailand is such a sad state of affairs.

[The Pro]

A link with some essential reading?

http://m.afr.com/p/world/thailand_secret_story_the_battle_QcvSA6u4clBHmLTFPLFQNJ

[Giotto]

A link with some essential reading?

http://m. afr. com/p/world/thailand_secret_story_the_battle_QcvSA6u4clBHmLTFPLFQNJWritten by Andrew McGregor Marshall. His story, for years now, repeated everywhere in the world.

Many facts are correct and put together in sequence the first time. But still he stands politically clearly on the red side.

What he usually forgets to mention is:

- It is unclear whether the CP and Thaksin still work together. There are cables from the the US Embassy (WikiLeaks) in which the CP is mentioned talking not very nicely about Thaksin. Then there was an attempt of Thaksin to get an audience from the CP (I think it was in Dubai, but not sure), and that audience was NOT granted. All that happened AFTER THE INITIAL "partnership" between both men.

- There is no real succession problem (any more). The CP will succeed Rama 9, there is not much what ANYBODY can do. Before the queen had her stroke last year there was a rumour that she planned to be the regent for the son of the CP to become king. But this option is dead since last year. The daughter of Rama 9 is not really an option, because she does not have children herself.

- The position of the CP has massively been strengthened in the last half year. This coup would most likely NOT HAVE HAPPENED without approval from the CP.

Andrew McGregor Marshall's often repeated viewpoint and story is quite correct until 2010/2011. Development that happened afterwards are not part of his story any more. He is clearly outdated!


Giotto

[Giotto]

Notice how correct this Reuters December article was.

Prawit and Annupong were the main men behind the PDRC. And now both of them are appointed senior advisors to the coup group.

Thailand is such a sad state of affairs. Wow, The Pro quotes The Pro. Victory!

Andrew McGregor Marshall was correspondent of Reuters, in Bangkok, before he left Thailand to write his story. Reuters still views Thailand through Andrew McGregor Marshall's eyes.

As mentioned before: Prawit is in the news as a POTENTIAL interim PM for years, in different political scenarios. He is yellow, was always yellow and has never made an attempt to hide that. Still - he is not in any way a leader of the yellow movement in the background.

Anupong is orange. He is not strongly connected to the yellow movement, and he has certain connections (family, friends) to the red camp. He is part of the advisory board as well as some Thaksin supporting red politicians.

Just think it through:

Does ANYBODY REALLY BELIEVE, that the real powerful men behind the scenes will OPENLY support the coup and move into the advisory board? Taking the risk that the coup fails and they end up in prison or being restrained in their ability to move or to do business in Thailand? Does anybody really believe that this powerful people are THAT STUPID?


Giotto

[Golfinho]

Wow, The Pro quotes The Pro. Victory!

GiottoIs there any where to ignore / not see every post on this thread. Except those posted by Giotto?

[DRRonin]

I was reading the following article on AsiaOne, the Singaporean online newspaper.

http://news. asiaone. com/news/asia/thai-military-seeks-facebook-google-cooperation-censorship

This section caught my attention.

The military plans to consolidate the 15 private and state-run Internet gateways into one single national gateway to facilitate monitoring. "We will have a single gateway to monitor inflow and outflow of content on the Internet. The main reason is for security," Pisit told Reuters. He said it was unlikely the gateway would be completed before the end of the year. "I think one thing that is common about nearly every military government no matter where is that they don't like dissent and over time they will try and stifle it in every way possible. And they always say it is about "security" and "the good of the people" It is just the manner of the beast. The longer these guys stay in power the worse it will get incrementally. At least they have had some pushback by some people. It will be interesting to see where it all goes.

[Paul Kausch]

One by one Pheu Thai politicians, red shirt leaders and sympathetic academics meet with the military, spend time in detention and are released. After their release some of these men announce they no longer oppose the coup; some say they are retiring from political life. I wonder what was discussed during their detention? Last week there were reports the junta was going to make major changes to the boards of the state enterprises. Now it announces there will be no changes in these boards. Not a bad strategy to ensure cooperation with the junta.

[The Pro]

Undercover police / military now arresting and detaining any anti-coup protestors around on their own. 3 BTS stations shut down yesterday by the Military Junta and Terminal 21 at Asoke closed in the afternoon. Solidiers around Terminal 21 had live ammunition in their guns.

Video. A woman was detained by undercover police. She panics when she realises police using a taxi to take her away. Good to see all the press around taking photo's of her military junta abductors.

Https: www. Facebook. Com / photo. Php? V=10152262291887713&set=vb. 133643127712&type=2&theater.

Video. A single protestor (old lady) (so not in an outlawed group of 5 or more) with nothing more than a mask saying "People" is detained by undercover police / military. Notice the undercover guy hear the end is wearing "Green Press Credentials" - which shows just how disgusting they are to hide behind press badges and use non-police / non-military to forcibly round up single protestors who are away from the main group.

Http: www. Matichon. Co. Th / news_detail. Php? Newsid=1401615765.

Photo. Live Ammo at Terminal 21 yesterday on the streets of Sukhumvit. Only takes one overheated soldier and an itchy finger and many can be dead.

Https: twitter. Com / loving_friday / status /473064044438364160/ photo /1.

Some more photo's from yesterdays protests are below, anti-coup protestors adopting the 3 finger salute;.

Https: twitter. Com / Pat_ThaiPBS / status /472981096531898368/ photo /1.

Https: twitter. Com / GlobalPost / status /472029430219427842/ photo /1.

Https: twitter. Com / RichardBarrow / status /473149256698953729/ photo /1.

Https: twitter. Com / QRK9/ status /473127809200566273/ photo /1.

Https: twitter. Com / lazyblackcat / status /473034788350091264/ photo /1.

Https: twitter. Com / ellathauz / status /473083092991631360/ photo /1.

Https: twitter. Com / jmconejo / status /473122621014302720/ photo /1.

Https: twitter. Com / NatMother / status /473089854855593986/ photo /1.

Https: twitter. Com / KittiSmit / status /473029895514124288/ photo /1.

Https: twitter. Com / pupi1332/ status /473067133413240833/ photo /1.

Https: twitter. Com / willythuan / status /473044124690415617/ photo /1.

Https: twitter. Com / W7 VOA / status /473065970961883136/ photo /1.

Https: twitter. Com / knrknr / status /473025527347810304/ photo /1.

Https: twitter. Com / World_Democracy / status /473036313575174144/ photo /1.

News report on the Terminal 21 protests.

Http: www. Youtube. Com / watch? V=mN0-URT1 e_s&feature=youtu. Be.

[The Pro]

Posted this in General and Politics threads as it very important.

Thailand is still under a nationwide Martial Law status. Martial Law means that nearly all insurance companies will void your travel insurance if you travel to Thailand, so you are not covered in the event of any sickness, loss of money, loss of baggage, accident etc.

Martial law in effect across the country means they can invoke the small print and will not be liable for ANY claim you may attempt to make.

www.mozo.com.au/travel-money/articles/travelling-to-Thailand-your-travel-insurance-may-be-voided1803260625

People should seriously consider the Philippines or other Asian countries at the moment for a holiday and avoid Thailand.

[TimTimGuy]

=The Pro;1575206]Posted this in General and Politics threads as it very important.

Thailand is still under a nationwide Martial Law status. Martial Law means that nearly all insurance companies will void your travel insurance if you travel to Thailand, so you are not covered in the event of any sickness, loss of money, loss of baggage, accident etc.

Martial law in effect across the country means they can invoke the small print and will not be liable for ANY claim you may attempt to make.
*snip* . I don't think this assertion is strictly correct, but I do think travelers will have an extra step to prove that losses or accidents are not "indirectly" caused by the clumsy Thai military. Sickness claims should be unaffected.

There was a letter in the Straights Times a couple days ago about this issue. Someone evidently claimed that the insurance companies had inserted a clause after the coup. A letter to the editor says:

X (A) ny claims arising directly or indirectly as a result of 'declared or undeclared war or any act of war, invasion, foreign enemy, civil war, rebellion, revolution, insurrection, military or usurped power' will be excluded.

This exclusion is a standard clause in our travel insurance policies and has been for some time. It was not inserted as a response to the situation in Thailand. The exclusion is also commonly adopted by other travel insurers. The current military coup in Thailand will fall under the abovementioned exclusion.

If a policyholder chooses to continue his trip to Thailand, he will continue to be covered for all other travel inconveniences subject to the policy terms and conditions, except for any claims arising directly or indirectly as a result of the military coup, as explained above. X.

You can read more at: http: www. Straitstimes. Com / premium / forum-letters / story / insurance-exclusion-not-inserted-response-Thailand-coup-20140531.

Again, I think some hassle factor may be added, but the travel insurance is still nominally valid. TTG.

[The Pro]

TimTimGuy,

I would suspect all insurance companies where the government of their country has a "Red Alert" - do not make any unnecessary travel to Thailand will invoke the exclusion clause. These Red Alert warning countries are:

United States, Spain, Italy, Finland, Russia, Greece, Hungary, Malta, Iran, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Croatia and Cyprus.

The other countries with warnings out you will probably find some insurance companies will invoke the clause whilst others may not. These countries with warnings are:

Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, UK, Ireland, France, Germany, Austria, Portugal, Switzerland, Belgium, Sweden, the Netherlands, Denmark, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, Latvia, Estonia, Slovakia, Luxemburg, Turkey, India, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, Israel, Kazakhstan, Maldives, Japan, China, Taiwan, Macau, Indonesia, Brunei, Australia and New Zealand.

As is said, everyone needs to check with their insurance company or you could easily end up out of pocket with the insurance company not paying. Insurance companies love to find loopholes to limit or not pay at all. So best have it in writing from your insurance company that they will pay out regardless of the present state of Martial Law nationwide in Thailand.

The Martial Law (1914 law) can only be removed by a direct Royal Command, so until that comes Martial Law will stay in effect all over the country, regardless of whether people talk about it, but its in effect.

[Paul Kausch]

Video. A single protestor (old lady) (so not in an outlawed group of 5 or more) with nothing more than a mask saying "People" is detained by undercover police / military. Notice the undercover guy hear the end is wearing "Green Press Credentials" - which shows just how disgusting they are to hide behind press badges and use non-police / non-military to forcibly round up single protestors who are away from the main group. Article in the Bangkok Post about use of press arm bans.

Http: www. Bangkokpost. Com / news / politics /413180/ police-use-of-press-armband-endangers-reporters.

[Member #4508]

In regards the Butterworth Malaysia. To Bangkok overnight rail service (train number 36 I think) - does anyone know if it's still operating under martial law? It crosses northbound into Thailand late evening. I can't seem to source info about this anywhere. With thanks and rgds v3.

[Giotto]

Quite a witch-hunt going on:

http://bangkokpost.com/most-recent/413684/jakrapob-called-in-next-week

Most of those summoned people are not living in Thailand any more, for years now. It's to a certain extend the intellectual elite of the red movement (if one can talk of an "intellectual elite" of this movement at all, it never had a strong intellectual base).


Giotto

[SE Asia Joe]

I have been following the events in Thailand avidly and with great sadness. To me, the killing of another human being, anywhere, anytime, and for whatever reason, can NEVER be justified.

I have always postulated that government is just a necessary evil, but that there are degrees of evil.

I have also always opined that ANY form of government (or religion for that matter) each have its own noble ideals and merits. It is who actually leads such government / religion that makes ALL the difference.

We all see how different types of government can be great and also disastrous in another country / context. And even governments that WERE great, degenerating into a black morass as its relevance fades when the leader fails to keep up with the times.

One individual of resolve and intellect, guided by a pure heart and an unwavering belief of his ideals can and do prevail. But history has shown that for every Gandhi or Mandella there are multiple Pol Pots, Hitlers etc.

Sad, truly sad! I weep for Thailand and really do hope / pray that there will emerge somebody who can lead it out from the horrible state that it has suffered under for too long.

God bless!

SEAJ

[Paul Kausch]

Now the Bangkok press is reporting the NACC is launching new investigations of Yingluck and some of her ex-ministers. This time their assets and how they were acquired are being investigated. I expect over time we'll be reading about similar investigations of other people around Thaksin.

There are also stories that an independent group will do an inventory of the government rice holding and sales to see how closely these reconcile. Wonder what they'll find?

[Run Mann]

What a wonderful post that is below? It should be read while the Thai National Anthem (feel free to sing along and do take note of the words) is being played. Look, everything will be alright, these people have been putting a hurt on themselves for years, they won't stop now. Thai politics, like most other countries' politics is a never-ending soap opera where everyone gets played.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrcGzLIEsAU

[Giotto]

Chaturon free on bail.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Chaturon-out-on-bail-under-condition-30235644.html

Good!


Giotto

[Paul Kausch]

When I was a boy growing up in New Orleans Jimmy Davis was running for governor of the great state of Louisiana. He was known as the singing governor because in addition to being a politician he was also a successful songwriter. At campaign stops his shtick was, "Hello neighbors, my name's Jimmy Davis, I'm running for governor and I want to sing you a few songs I've written. " Then he'd break out with a few verses of "You are my Sunshine" or "There's a new moon over my shoulder." An article in the Bangkok Post conjured up this old memory. Apparently Prayuth is also a songwriter. He has written an original composition, with some help from a real songwriter, "Return happiness to Thailand." The song debuted on armed forces radio on Friday. The general says he wrote the song to express his true feelings and desire for all Thais to unite. Soon campfire will appear across the country and everyone will be gather to sing Kumbaya.

Though less important, it is notable that the curfew is being lifted in more tourist locations (though not Bangkok), the baht is strengthening and the SET is up. Thai investors are jumping into the market. The stronger baht is attributable to global confidence in the fiscal and economic policies the new government is announcing.

[PinkPearl]

"In Thailand, Growing Intolerance for Dissent Drives Many to More Authoritarian Nations".

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/07/world/asia/in-thailand-a-growing-intolerance-for-dissent.html?ref=world&_r=0

The curfew has been lifted in more areas.

"The junta chief has assured Chinese investors that an interim government will be installed within three months as he sought to shore up economic ties. ".

http://bangkokpost.com/

[Giotto]

"In Thailand, Growing Intolerance for Dissent Drives Many to More Authoritarian Nations".

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/07/world/asia/in-thailand-a-growing-intolerance-for-dissent.html?ref=world&_r=0This is really disgusting.

Besides the fact that of course "The New York Times" again is writing this bullshit - this people are in Cambodia! Cambodia is definitely a really "free" country, governed by an "democratic dictatorship" of an ex Khmer Rouge children killer Hun Sen. That's where Thaksins left-over crap is accumulating.

Jakrapob Penkair lives outside Thailand for years now, and he is that unbelievable intelligent that he started to talk about an "exile government" immediately after the coup.

There are definitely not "many" who are joining this small club of idiots. Especially not in Cambodia. Not even Thaksin supporter are that stupid.

What a shit the highly respected western press writes here - it's disgusting!


Giotto

PS:
Pinkpearl, go ahead with your "Lanna" project, take 51 % of the Thai people that generate 9 % of the Thai GDP and create 5 % of the Thai tax income. Vote for Thaksin as a president that he can manage this country and try to fill his pockets with the little bit that's coming from there. But I doubt that the southern and central part of Thailand is willing to pump another THB 500 billion into the pockets of the laziest of the laziest - the rice farmers! Nevertheless - we here in this forum appreciate the existence and attitude of those farmers, because their incompetence, dumbness and laziness fills the bars and massage parlours of the tourist areas in Pattaya, Bangkok, Samui and Phuket with their daughters!

[Giotto]

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Rice-farmers-seek-40-profit-margin-30235737.html

Ohh, please, dear Mr. Government, guarantee my 40 % profit margin. We will then love you forever!


Currently, the rice price is only between Bt4,000 and Bt6,000 per tonne, meaning farmers sold rice at a loss given the average production cost was between Bt7,000 and Bt7,700 per tonne."Ohh, life is so hard (do I really have to make two harvests now, work 4 weeks a year? That cannot be.) , the world market price is so low (BTW. , sadly our red ex-government is partially responsible for that, too, after accumulating millions of tons of rice and Thailand now being forced to sell it on the market). Now we are crying all night long (no sex any more), because our costs are so high (what the fuck should I think about why farmers in other countries can produce cheaper if the government can take over the risk of my business. That's much easier, and I can sit on the village bar and drink Whiskey). Please help us, beloved Generals!!! And afterwards we vote Thaksin back into office! We promise ! ".

Fucking bastards! One root of the problems of this country (not the only one, the "really yellows" (Suthep and his maniacs) are another root problem). Lazy like shit, mentally who**s, politically in bed with whoever pays for the daily Whiskey ration. The only target in life is to get through with as less work as possible. Let others pay for that!

I see lots of them every day when I am in Ayutthaya!


Giotto

[Daddy07]

I see lots of them every day when I am in Ayutthaya! GiottoGiotto, it seems as though you you have way too much time on your hands these days.

You really ought to get yourself back into the hotel and restaurant business in Bangkok so you'll have something worthwhile to do with your life.

Maybe you can get the general's to subsidize you. :)

[Paul Kausch]

Fucking bastards! One root of the problems of this country (not the only one, the "really yellows" (Suthep and his maniacs) are another root problem). Lazy like shit, mentally who**s, politically in bed with whoever pays for the daily Whiskey ration. The only target in life is to get through with as less work as possible. Let others pay for that!

I see lots of them every day when I am in Ayutthaya!


GiottoAnd what about the corruption? The Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates 30-50% of all government spending is stolen by the politicians. They base this on what is apparently common knowledge among government insiders. Both parties are (were) guilt of this, however, the Thaksinytes seem to spend more; I guess so they can steal more.

Recently I read an editorial in which a woman wrote that one way to determine how effective Prayuth is at rooting out corruption is by looking at how much cheaper he is able to implement government projects. Her reasoning is he should be able to execute projects at about two-thirds prior costs. Today's I read another editorial in which the writer points out that where in the past there were limited abilities for members of the Third Estate to allege corruption, under martial law, a citizen who complains about government corruption can be arrested and prosecuted in a military court for committing an offense that damages the nation.

Oh well guess everyone is supposed to smile, be happy and not concern themselves with this stuff; and the general has given the nation a new song to sing to help everyone smile.

[The Pro]

Now the Bangkok press is reporting the NACC is launching new investigations of Yingluck and some of her ex-ministers. This time their assets and how they were acquired are being investigated. I expect over time we'll be reading about similar investigations of other people around Thaksin.

There are also stories that an independent group will do an inventory of the government rice holding and sales to see how closely these reconcile. Wonder what they'll find?Let me guess a few things:

1/ There will be no investigation of the former government of Suthep / Abhisit and its "Palm Oil Scam" and the "BTS extension scam" and all the other scams.

2/ Any investigation will therefore only commence from when PTP won the election. Everything before that will be outside of any investigation.

3/ Military spending is exempt (as normal) from any investigation. Including such things as the "airship" and "fake bomb detectors" and also the purchase of everything military for around 200% mark up on what other non-corrupt countries pay (got to keep all these generals rich in Thailand).

4/ Regardless of whether anyone is guilty or innocent the same will apply as in 2006 - which is you either side with the army and lay lots of accusations and blame and inside information (non-verifiable) on the people they want to convict. And you will be innocent. Or if you refuse to lie and verify their false accusations against certain people they want to convict. Then you will also be found guilty on some trumped up charge.

Military coups run by simply finding all their opponents guilty in kangaroo courts on trumped up charges, the threat of this often turns an opponent into a silent mouse or co-conspirator. Or a leader into an exiled leader.

Everyone should now BOYCOTT Thailand. Do not support the Junta. Take your mongering and holiday money off to Indonesia, Philippines and other places.

Already the PDRC are talking of banning American imports. Promoting boycotts of American products. Because they do not like the USA calling the coup and coup and saying there should be elections.

It is well known in Thailand that the Military are the most corrupt. For every 100 baht of Military spend probably 60% of it ends up in Generals pockets. Its why Thailand's military buys 30 year old crap from all sorts of countries at prices equivalent to new state of the art stuff. And prices are never published or scrutinised. All those generals needs their money train. If you ever try to reduce Military spending like Thaksin tried to, you will end up exiled and found guilty of many crimes, all with no evidence apart from a few verbal statements of others.

[The Pro]

Someone at the Bangkok Post is likely to be sacked and in jail soon for writing this report.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/investigation/414124/out-of-step-with-the-junta

[Giotto]

Giotto, it seems as though you you have way too much time on your hands these days.

You really ought to get yourself back into the hotel and restaurant business in Bangkok so you'll have something worthwhile to do with your life.

Maybe you can get the general's to subsidize you. :)Daddy,

You are right, I have a lot of time now. And - that's good! And - my statement towards the farmers has nothing to do with that. I would not change ANY PART of my statement if I had less time on hand!!!

Whether the Generals might subsidize my future activities - well, I am not so sure about that :):):).


Giotto

[Giotto]

And what about the corruption? The Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates 30-50% of all government spending is stolen by the politicians. They base this on what is apparently common knowledge among government insiders. Both parties are (were) guilt of this, however, the Thaksinytes seem to spend more; I guess so they can steal more.Yep.

I would really appreciate the THAI CHAMBER OF COMMERCE to write this in "democratic" times of politics in this country. But then this people shut up and hide. This are the guys sitting in their seats and fart. Meaningless. Idiots, I don't even read their comments.


Recently I read an editorial in which a woman wrote that one way to determine how effective Prayuth is at rooting out corruption is by looking at how much cheaper he is able to implement government projects. Her reasoning is he should be able to execute projects at about two-thirds prior costs. Today's I read another editorial in which the writer points out that where in the past there were limited abilities for members of the Third Estate to allege corruption, under martial law, a citizen who complains about government corruption can be arrested and prosecuted in a military court for committing an offense that damages the nation.Yeah,

I read that, too.

Now - we should remember, that Thailand has more than 5000 Generals. The army has not even that number of tanks. That means, that for each tank we have at least a general to command it.

The salary of a general is usually around THB 70,000. 00 a month. With this salary you can live a reasonable wealthy life here in Thailand, and you can send your kids to good schools. But - if Generals suddenly own properties in Sathon road, several houses and resorts on the coast, and they drive Mercedes and Bentleys - then you know that most likely they have had rich parents!!!! Yeah!!!

But - there are rumors that some Generals make serious money with commission on "procurement" orders for the army / navy / airforce. Of course - this is impossible, the Generals belong to the group of "good people" that are predestined to rule, renew, clean or whatever "do good" for Thailand.

Impossible!!! Unthinkable!!!!


Giotto

PS: Jackson, the auto-correction system of this forum is a mess, and it SUCKS. You may not realize it, but it sucks definitely. I have to correct ALL MY REPORTS several times until I get the meaning across which is usually completely messed up by this auto-correction system. This is NOT FUN, THIS MAKES YOU AND US LOSE MEMBER, READERS and WRITERS.

WAKE UP, MAN !!! THIS SUCKS !!! (I reported this post to Jackson!).

[Kerrstar]

PS: Jackson, the auto-correction system of this forum is a mess, and it SUCKS. You may not realize it, but it sucks definitely. I have to correct ALL MY REPORTS several times until I get the meaning across which is usually completely messed up by this auto-correction system. This is NOT FUN, THIS MAKES YOU AND US LOSE MEMBER, READERS and WRITERS.

WAKE UP, MAN !!! THIS SUCKS !!! (I reported this post to Jackson!).This may be your browser rather than the website, my posts never auto-correct. I just get underlined spelling errors. I use Firefox nightly.

[Giotto]

This may be your browser rather than the website, my posts never auto-correct. I just get underlined spelling errors. I use Firefox nightly.Yeah,

I am quite sure that my browser (Firefox) exchanges the word "working girls" ("who**s") against "working girls". I wrote "w h o r e s" .

Thanks for your advice.


Giotto

[Western787]

Everyone should now BOYCOTT Thailand. Do not support the Junta. Take your mongering and holiday money off to Indonesia, Philippines and other places.

Excellent advice for the masses, but for some of us, we see it as our moral duty to remain faithful to Bangkok so we can monitor the return to democratic process during the day, while to help keep the economy going, at night partake in the pleasure and extreme ecstasy of spending quality time with beautiful Bangkok working girls.

[PinkPearl]

Let me guess a few things:

1/ There will be no investigation of the former government of Suthep / Abhisit and its "Palm Oil Scam" and the "BTS extension scam" and all the other scams.

2/ Any investigation will therefore only commence from when PTP won the election. Everything before that will be outside of any investigation.

3/ Military spending is exempt (as normal) from any investigation. Including such things as the "airship" and "fake bomb detectors" and also the purchase of everything military for around 200% mark up on what other non-corrupt countries pay (got to keep all these generals rich in Thailand).

4/ Regardless of whether anyone is guilty or innocent the same will apply as in 2006 - which is you either side with the army and lay lots of accusations and blame and inside information (non-verifiable) on the people they want to convict. And you will be innocent. Or if you refuse to lie and verify their false accusations against certain people they want to convict...It's all part of "reform", yellow Suthep style, in the Land of Scams, er, Smiles.

They've promised to install a "neutral" government in 3 months. And elections within a year. What are the chances their so-called "reforms" by then will have weighed the democratic process heavily in their favor? 100 per cent? The vote of "monkeys" won't count.

I'll keep visiting LOS till I find something better. It's known the PI is too dangerous for mongers & lacking in many ways versus Bangkok. Indonesia has its own issues like high HIV rates. I'd also stay clear of pussy in Vietnam, if you value your health. But Malaysia, Cambodia & Hong Kong are on my radar. And Singapore is already established as a prime P4 P destination par with the Kingdom of corruption.

[Ralph Kramden]

Excellent advice for the masses, but for some of us, we see it as our moral duty to remain faithful to Bangkok so we can monitor the return to democratic process during the day, while to help keep the economy going, at night partake in the pleasure and extreme ecstasy of spending quality time with beautiful Bangkok working girls.Yes by all means make a political statement you masses and stay away so that airline ticket prices will drop, pussy will be tight and wet and the BHT will crash.

[BionicMan]

Yes by all means make a political statement you masses and stay away so that airline ticket prices will drop, pussy will be tight and wet and the BHT will crash.And a few airlines will go bankrupt, flying crew will be dismissed, restaurants will close down and maybe some waitresses will sell their goods too.

[ManonsanBoy]

And a few airlines will go bankrupt, flying crew will be dismissed, restaurants will close down and maybe some waitresses will sell their goods too.Thailand's ruling elite cannot bear to loose control. They loose election after election so they have a coup. The soldiers will not fire if 100,000 red shirts including women and children March on Bangkok. If this happens, Thailand will be in deep trouble and not even the King will be able to handle it. He was not seen during this crisis.

[Run Mann]

If this happens, Thailand will be in deep trouble and not even the King will be able to handle it. He was not seen during this crisis.Which King are you talking about? Surely not the King they're about to "lose".

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/behind-thailands-coup-is-a-fight-over-the-king-and-his-successor-but-its-hush-hush/2014/06/05/d0cac579-374c-4671-b418-b8dda46c76ed_story.html

[NoWahalla]

A woman went to her doctor for advice. She told him that her husband had developed a penchant for anal sex, and she was not sure that it was such a good idea.

'Do you enjoy it?' The doctor asked.

'Actually, yes, I do. '.

'Does it hurt you?' he asked.

'No. I rather like it. '.

'Well, then,' the doctor continued, 'there's no reason that you shouldn't practice anal sex, if that's what you like, so long as you take care not to get pregnant. '.

The woman was mystified. 'What? You can get pregnant from anal sex?

'Of course,' the doctor replied. 'Where do you think politicians come from?

[ManonsanBoy]

Which King are you talking about? Surely not the King they're about to "lose".

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/behind-thailands-coup-is-a-fight-over-the-king-and-his-successor-but-its-hush-hush/2014/06/05/d0cac579-374c-4671-b418-b8dda46c76ed_story.htmlThe Bangkok elite will use his name to hang on to power. The red shirts will not tolerate that for long.

[Daddy07]

The General's are now trying to force Thai dissident's living abroad to return home for punishment.

Rumor also has it that they are now all adopting the fashion of Panama hats and have officially declared bananas as Thai national fruit.

http://time.com/2856169/the-thai-junta-wants-to-its-force-critics-living-abroad-to-return-home/

[Crocodilexp]

I'd also stay clear of pussy in Vietnam, if you value your health.Why? I don't think HIV prevalence in Vietnam is all that high, actually it ought to be notably lower than Thailand? Did you have safety issues there?

[WeaverWorld]

It's all part of "reform", yellow Suthep style, in the Land of Scams, er, Smiles.

They've promised to install a "neutral" government in 3 months. And elections within a year. What are the chances their so-called "reforms" by then will have weighed the democratic process heavily in their favor? 100 per cent? The vote of "monkeys" won't count.

I'll keep visiting LOS till I find something better. It's known the PI is too dangerous for mongers & lacking in many ways versus Bangkok. Indonesia has its own issues like high HIV rates. I'd also stay clear of pussy in Vietnam, if you value your health. But Malaysia, Cambodia & Hong Kong are on my radar. And Singapore is already established as a prime P4 P destination par with the Kingdom of corruption.Kind of feels you have things twisted, Singapore is most likely the worst P4 P country in SE Asia with high rates and basically all girls come from neighbouring countries.

When it comes to HIV rates no one beats Cambodia, I wear a raincoat just going to Phnom Penh, Philippines and Indonesia are the prime areas now, that's where you want to be.

Hong Kong though will always be good, I vote for that!

[Kerrstar]

Kind of feels you have things twisted, Singapore is most likely the worst P4 P country in SE Asia with high rates and basically all girls come from neighbouring countries.

When it comes to HIV rates no one beats CambodiaAgree with Singapore being one of the most expensive and pretty much all the girls are imports, not that that is a bad thing, but it does make it a bit pointless to travel there just for hobbying.

I thought that most of the HIV cases in LOS were / are from drug use rather than sex. No such thing as needle exchanges and I thought buying needles was difficult without a good reason. If you bang a junkie bareback, well then you're asking for trouble, but I haven't heard of many girls from NEP or Soi Cowboy who are addicts. I could be wrong, but they're usually easy to spot. Also most, but not all, girls insist on condoms and so do a lot of guys.

[AskeAske]

Kind of feels you have things twisted, Singapore is most likely the worst P4 P country in SE Asia with high rates and basically all girls come from neighbouring countries.

When it comes to HIV rates no one beats Cambodia, I wear a raincoat just going to Phnom Penh, Philippines and Indonesia are the prime areas now, that's where you want to be.

Hong Kong though will always be good, I vote for that!Hiv rate Thailand 2011 1,2%.

Hiv rate Burma 2011 0,6%.

Hiv rate Cambodia 2011 0,5%.

Hiv rate Vietnam 2011 0,5%.

Hiv rate Laos 2011 0,3%.

http://www.avert.org/south-east-asia-hiv-aids-statistics.htm

[Rjsss212]

...and have officially declared bananas as Thai national fruit.Always was, nothing changed. I imagine though, as a local, its difficult to see clearly when there's always a sweet pair of lips around your cock.

[PinkPearl]

Why? I don't think HIV prevalence in Vietnam is all that high, actually it ought to be notably lower than Thailand? Did you have safety issues there?It's against the law in VN for a VN national to share a room with a foreigner. There are reports of LE raids & beating guys to a pulp. Secondly, prostitution is against the law, they take it seriously, & you wouldn't enjoy the inside of a VN prison cell. Thirdly, the general scene there is IMO significantly more difficult & dangerous than LOS.

[PinkPearl]

kind of feels you have things twisted, singapore is most likely the worst p4 p country in se asia with high rates and basically all girls come from neighbouring countries.

when it comes to hiv rates no one beats cambodia, i wear a raincoat just going to phnom penh, philippines and indonesia are the prime areas now, that's where you want to be.

hong kong though will always be good, i vote for that!i love singapore for p4 p because there is so much variety of nationalities conveniently concentrated in a small area, especially the rld of geylang where it's as cheap as 20 usd to bang a very hot young lady. everything is generally covered for sex & legal house ladies must get regular sti testing. sg is also better than other sea countries, especially of the 3rd world, in just about every way one can imagine.

regarding cambodia "antiretroviral treatment coverage is the highest in the region with more than 95% of those in need of treatment in cambodia receiving it in 2011. "

in the pi girls working with le falsely claim guys raped them. i'll never go to there for many reasons, especially that.