View Full Version : Real vs Dollar and other currency issues
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What's the rate they're giving at the airport (GIG) right now?
I don't know. I am in the northeast.
I got a rate of 2.35 when I withdrew reais from an ATM belonging to the Banco 24 Horas network. That 1 basis point better than the rate I got last week.
Poucolouco
12-30-08, 01:23
The rate on XE.com is 2.41 as of 25 minutes ago. I am going to get reais later this afternoon.
I am not as sure as some others about an eventual 3.00 rate between the real and the dollar. If there was some sound economic reason for this (commodity price declines) then we should have been seeing a steady decline in the value of the real since it hit 2.30 in October. On the contrary, it hit 2.61 in November and has since been rising in value.
.
Actually George, the median value of the Real since October is 2.35553. Each time there has been any sign of significant weakness against the dollar, the Brasilian Central bank has auctioned off billions of dollars to support value of the Real. Although we all dream about the 3:1 ratio, I agree with you, there are no strong indicators that this will happen soon.
I once brought about 25 with me, sure it is over the limit of allowable currency that you can bring into the country (R$10,000), but putting 25 banknotes in a few different hiding places, amongst other notes doesn't draw attention. They would really have to go through you stuff with a fine tooth comb to find it. Unless you are known to them or are carrying an obvious large amount of contraband goods, there is no reason to do a thorough search of your body.
Bubba Boy, there is no limit on bringing currency into the country and a high-priced risk if you get caught hiding it from inspectors. If you carry more than R$10,000 you just have to declare it on your customs declaration form. As you pass through customs, you will then be escorted to a private room where the inspectors will count it and document it. You then need to watch your back until you get to your destination.
What's the rate they're giving at the airport (GIG) right now?
Best way to check this is look at the UOL Economia site. Airport cambios are generally close to the Dólar turismo rate.
http://economia.uol.com.br/cotacoes/
JohnnyBraz
12-30-08, 02:09
Actually George, the median value of the Real since October is 2.35553. Each time there has been any sign of significant weakness against the dollar, the Brasilian Central bank has auctioned off billions of dollars to support value of the Real. Although we all dream about the 3:1 ratio, I agree with you, there are no strong indicators that this will happen soon.
Bubba Boy, there is no limit on bringing currency into the country and a high-priced risk if you get caught hiding it from inspectors. If you carry more than R$10,000 you just have to declare it on your customs declaration form. As you pass through customs, you will then be escorted to a private room where the inspectors will count it and document it. You then need to watch your back until you get to your destination.
Best way to check this is look at the UOL Economia site. Airport cambios are generally close to the Dólar turismo rate.
http://economia.uol.com.br/cotacoes/You would have to be crazy to declare money at customs in brazil, you may as well walk into a favela and show you have 10, 000r + see how quick you get robbed. There is a very high chance that when leaving the airport, your taxi will be pulled over and you will be robbed. -
http://www.portal.hsbc.com.br/1/2/portal/en/personal/international-services/moving-to-brazil
This is the procedure for opening up an hsbc account. I don't know how other banks in brasil does it but hsbc requires you to be present at the bank to sign for the exchange rate. So having an hsbc account in the US doesn't help.
Citi is another option but they always given me the worst exchange rate at their atm's all over the world.
Is there an equivalent to FDIC insurance for bank accounts in Brasil?
Poucolouco
01-01-09, 06:50
You would have to be crazy to declare money at customs in brazil, -
That's the source of my user name, Poucolouco. :)
You would have to be crazy to declare money at customs in brazil, you may as well walk into a favela and show you have 10, 000r + see how quick you get robbed. There is a very high chance that when leaving the airport, your taxi will be pulled over and you will be robbed. -
The federal police control all the entries and associated issues at the airport.
I personally don't like to have any contact with the federal police. The federal police at the airport are like a mafia operation. I would not like to declare anything that is going to raise attention. Hence I prefer to take the risk of carrying in USD$20,000 on my body every now and then.
At the airport they were giving 2.17/2.18. At MP, it´s 2.20. There´s this place around the corner from MP that is giving 2.25. Blameitonrio, 2.20. I didn´t ask the guys at the airport who are out front.
The federal police control all the entries and associated issues at the airport.
I personally don't like to have any contact with the federal police. The federal police at the airport are like a mafia operation. I would not like to declare anything that is going to raise attention. Hence I prefer to take the risk of carrying in USD$20,000 on my body every now and then.
I tend to agree with Bubba and JohnnyBraz on this one. Treat police at the airport much as you would anyone else - don't give them the chance to rob you. I'm not fond of taxis anyway but if I'm carrying a lot of stash it's a toss-up between a taxi to the door and a bus where I have to walk a mere 50yards at night.* Taxis from arrivals appeal slightly more to me but I may be kidding myself. Without a tip-off, any taxi is equal game.
*that's if it's Copa or Ipa. If I'm staying anywhere else I don't mind walking with a big rucksack. If it's daylight, although that's no guarantee in Copa, I feel 'slightly' safer and so more likely to take a risk.
Exec Talent
01-05-09, 07:29
We may have seen the peak in the Real/Dollar exchange.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIVbr0c49NN4&refer=home
For anyone who cares, I continued buying Reais last week.
However, keep your eyes on government intervention and market manipulators. I remember when this used to be easy. Ah, the good old days.
On the ground in Rio, I see little concern about their domestic economy from the man on the street. Foreign tourism is way down, but domestic tourism seems stable. Hotels were still charging outrageous rates for New Years, but were not full.
Jazzy Daddy
01-05-09, 20:23
[QUOTE=Exec Talent]We may have seen the peak in the Real/Dollar exchange.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIVbr0c49NN4&refer=home
For anyone who cares, I continued buying Reais last week.
However, keep your eyes on government intervention and market manipulators. I remember when this used to be easy. Ah, the good old days.
Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s real rose to its strongest since late November as the central bank stepped in to buy $650 million worth of reais in the foreign-exchange market.
The central bank said it accepted three offers to buy reais at 2.291 per U.S. dollar, under an agreement to re-sell the currency on April 1 at a rate of 2.34881 per dollar.
The real strengthened 2.9 percent to 2.2532 per dollar at 1:15 p.m. New York time, from 2.3176 on Jan. 2. The currency touched 2.2426 per dollar, its strongest since Nov. 27.
The real also rallied as Brazilian stocks rose the most in eight months on speculation that rising government spending worldwide will boost demand for the country’s commodity exports.
“Some investors, looking for a bounce in commodities or a rise in global equity markets, may be putting money into Brazil after going underweight,” said Nick Chamie, head of emerging market research at RBC in Toronto. Still, “the central bank’s actions will remain transient -- it will be able to help in the short term, but it will not be able to set the trend,” he said.
Chamie recommended in a research note today that investors sell the real against the Mexican peso, which he sees less affected by the global slowdown.
The real’s rally today also reflected “positive expectations about the arrival of the new American president and his plans” to stimulate the U.S. economy, said Shigemi Fujisaki, a foreign-exchange strategist at Socopa Corretora in Sao Paulo.
The yield on Brazil’s overnight futures contract for January 2010 declined nine basis points, or 0.09 percentage point, to 12.07 percent.
The yield on Brazil’s zero-coupon local-currency bonds due January 2010 fell six basis points to 12.15 percent.
More Gov. Manipulation...
When I take money out of the ATM here in Thailand I use a UK Nationwide card as they give the best rate and they do not charge for the overseas service.
When I come to Rio in the middle of this year, I don't really want to bring all cash. Does anybody from the UK on this forum use their nationwide card in Brazil? Does it still give the better rate than other UK bank cards such as HSBC?
It has the 'LINK' sign on the back of the card. Can these type of cards be used in Brazil ATM's.
Many thanks for any help with this.
Jamaicanceo
01-15-09, 06:41
2008 Average Rates for USD to BRL
January 1.69383 July 1.59085
February 1.72924 August 1.61113
March 1.47125 September 1.79785
April 1.68858 October 2.15473
May 1.43251 November 2.27075
June 1.6194 December 2.40086
Guys i asked to many cambios in the last 2 days, almost everything give does 1 euro 2,9 reais....is it good, right or bad ?
At airport was 1 euro 2,80 reais, i changed only 50 euro....
Used twice atm still no idea how they charged me
Poucolouco
01-15-09, 21:12
Guys i asked to many cambios in the last 2 days, almost everything give does 1 euro 2,9 reais....is it good, right or bad ?
At airport was 1 euro 2,80 reais, i changed only 50 euro....
Used twice atm still no idea how they charged me
Unless you are changing several hundred, 2.9 is fair for cambio. Both UOL and XE are quoting commercial rates of 3.0 today.
Hi...thanks, so in a couple of days I will change one banknote of 500 euro...could I ask and wait better than 2.9 ?
How to get better rate, so far as I cannot go to different cambio and say Ihave 500 euro how much you change me ?
Obrigado..
Exec Talent
01-16-09, 15:19
What a difference a day makes.
Dollar open yesterday - 2.387
Dollar open today - 2.313
Poucolouco
01-16-09, 17:49
Hi...thanks, so in a couple of days I will change one banknote of 500 euro...could I ask and wait better than 2.9 ?
Obrigado..
There are no facts about the future.
How to get better rate, so far as I cannot go to different cambio and say Ihave 500 euro how much you change me ?
Obrigado..
Anything is negotiable.
Hi...thanks, so in a couple of days I will change one banknote of 500 euro...could I ask and wait better than 2.9 ?
How to get better rate, so far as I cannot go to different cambio and say Ihave 500 euro how much you change me ?
Obrigado..
Rates irresepctive, just so you maybe don't want to put all your eggs in one banknote . . .
Very large notes can be harder to change sometimes. Same goes for notes that are damaged or written on. Unusual currencies can be very hard. 500E is probably ok but I always split mine - partly as a precaution against robberies and partly cos if one medium sized is accepted it's easier to scale up than than scale down.
500 euro notes are not a problem, I have changed several hundred over the last few years.
500 euro notes are not a problem, I have changed several hundred over the last few years.
Well that's good to know. I rarely use Euros, just commented on my experiences with other currencies.
Anybody have any actual rates given by cambios or L'uomo right now for US$?
Brazil entered red ink in the last 3 months of last year. The deficit was US$ 983 million & expected to grow as the crises worsens.
Exec Talent
01-23-09, 14:14
January 23 - Cambio Rate: 2.25 - 2.28
January 22 - ATM Rate: 2.36
With Brazil's rate cut by 1 point Wed the Real gained on the dollar instead which I found strange.
I arrived on 1/23 and exchanged $100usd at the cambio run by Banco Safra and got an exchange rate of $R218. They charged $R12.50 tax or fee (tariffa) and IOF charge (?) of $R.0.83. End result $R204.67. This cambio is on your right after you exit customs, near the kiosks for the taxi and bus services.
I've add this, to my "avoid at the airport" list.
FYI: the cambio after clearing immigration and at baggage claim were closed/unstaffed.
So I'm headed out on my first trip, and tried to pre-order some currency from citibank. Turns out they don't offer it.
Does anyone have a suggestion for pre-trip currency? I found a credit card (pentagon federal) that doesn't charge a foreign exchange fee, but nothing in the way of an atm/debit that will do the same.
As of yesterday for US$:
L'uomo 2.1
Citibank 2.26
In the past L'uomo has given me a bit more than the ATM but to be safe I brought both currencies.
Exec Talent
01-27-09, 16:02
I think in the weeks and months ahead we are going to see a rise in the real:dollar exchange rate to 3:1 or more. My reasoning has to do with the pressure Brazil is going to be under to increase exports. Exports are way down as are prices. One way to make commodities even more attractive (and also to increase tourism) is to allow the exchange rate to rise.
However, one has to follow the data closely and as always these days be ready for government intervention to throw a wrench in the works.
Brazil entered red ink in the last 3 months of last year. The deficit was US$ 983 million & expected to grow as the crises worsens.
Really the trade balance was active for 2,301 million $ in December and 24,746 million $ for the whole 2008 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/07/content_10616099.htm
Really the trade balance was active for 2,301 million $ in December and 24,746 million $ for the whole 2008 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/07/content_10616099.htm
I will try to get the article that showed Brazil account balance went negative at the end of last year & post it.
I think in the weeks and months ahead we are going to see a rise in the real:dollar exchange rate to 3:1 or more. My reasoning has to do with the pressure Brazil is going to be under to increase exports. Exports are way down as are prices. One way to make commodities even more attractive (and also to increase tourism) is to allow the exchange rate to rise.
However, one has to follow the data closely and as always these days be ready for government intervention to throw a wrench in the works.
I agree that lowering the value of the real to stimulate exports is one way of increasing Brazil's economy.
I disagree that your correct reasoning will be recognized as such by the Brazilian economic policy makers.
Today's Bloomberg has an article about interest rates in Brazil. I had a hard time comprehending the rates given on savings accounts. The claim was that are in the range of 30% - 40% per year.
Is there anyone in Brazil right now who can find quotes on savings accounts and CDs for Banco do Brasil or other major banks?
Maybe it's too late and I'm tired but how on earth one can stimulate economy by debasing the currency of commodity dependent country like Brazil? (Yes, you can sell more planes) Commodity prices are in dollars so the only ones to benefit are the exporters who get more reals to cover their expenses.
My view is that real will be volatile until 2010 when it will strengthen again.
Today's Bloomberg has an article about interest rates in Brazil. I had a hard time comprehending the rates given on savings accounts. The claim was that are in the range of 30% - 40% per year.
Is there anyone in Brazil right now who can find quotes on savings accounts and CDs for Banco do Brasil or other major banks?
Interest on bank accounts is about 1% per month, maybe 12% - 15% per year. The interest rate a customers pays on credit crad debt is 30% - 80%.
Brazilian exports.
I have explained this before. There are 2 components to a trade deficit.
The first component is the balance of trade. This is basically the difference between goods and services exported and imported. Brazil has had a a strong surplus over the last few years, however this is coming down quickly. Is forecast to be in balance soon IE no more surplus.
The second component to the trade situation is made up on the balance of basically monetary movements. IE The balance is all profits generated from oversees companies in Brazil that are sent overees + any interest payments on foreign debt, less any profits earned by brazilian companies oversees and any interest earned oversees. This has been historically a deficit in recent years. IE more money has been paid out than received.
These 2 components together equal the current account. This is the proper measure of a countries trade position, its current account.
Over the last 3 or 4 years Brazil was exporting strongly and was running a strong trade surplus, the trade surplus was greater than the deficit it was running on the monetary side. However, now that Brazilian exports are falling quite sharply, the monetary payments deficit has run the overall trade sitution into a deficit. Hence, Brazil is now running a current account deficit.
The reason for the confusion is that most journalists don't have a strong background in economics, hence they usually only report the first part of the trade situation. More thorough journalists report the full accounts, hence this you often get 2 different balances reported, leaving the general public confused as to the true trade situation.
For Brazils trade balance see the focus bulletin, published on a weekly basis by the Brazilian Central Bank.
See the Brazilian Central bank website with the numbers & info listed below:
Exports from Brazil in the third week of January totaled US$ 2.276 billion and imports totaled US$ 2.654 billion. The balance of trade (exports minus imports) showed a deficit of US$ 378 million.
http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english
Brazil puts restrictions on 60% of its imports because of its trade balance. In the first four weeks of January the deficit reached 645 million dollars. In december 650.000 Brazilians were layed off something that has not taken place since 2000
Brazilian exports.
I have explained this before. There are 2 components to a trade deficit.
The first component is the balance of trade. This is basically the difference between goods and services exported and imported. Brazil has had a a strong surplus over the last few years, however this is coming down quickly. Is forecast to be in balance soon IE no more surplus.
The second component to the trade situation is made up on the balance of basically monetary movements. IE The balance is all profits generated from oversees companies in Brazil that are sent overees + any interest payments on foreign debt, less any profits earned by brazilian companies oversees and any interest earned oversees. This has been historically a deficit in recent years. IE more money has been paid out than received.
These 2 components together equal the current account. This is the proper measure of a countries trade position, its current account.
Over the last 3 or 4 years Brazil was exporting strongly and was running a strong trade surplus, the trade surplus was greater than the deficit it was running on the monetary side. However, now that Brazilian exports are falling quite sharply, the monetary payments deficit has run the overall trade sitution into a deficit. Hence, Brazil is now running a current account deficit.
The reason for the confusion is that most journalists don't have a strong background in economics, hence they usually only report the first part of the trade situation. More thorough journalists report the full accounts, hence this you often get 2 different balances reported, leaving the general public confused as to the true trade situation.
I agree that journalists don't know enough about economics to report on some of the more complicated economic situations.
Unfortunately, that applies to some economists as well. I reviewed an econ text because BBs definition of trade balance didn't ring quite right. I had thought that interest payments were part of the capital account, but BB is correct. What I found was the following:
Balance of trade: This is the difference between total exports and total imports.
Balance of factor income payments: This is the difference between the interest and dividend payments Americans receive from abroad and the payments made to foreigners by US companies.
Balance of transfers: This is the difference between remittances, gifts, and other unilateral payments Americans received from abroad and those made to foreigners abroad by Americans or others in the US.
Current Account Balance: This is the sum of the 3 above components.
I think most journalists only report the balance of trade. (It is the largest component by far.) The other 2 components are really beyond the understanding of the US lay public. When that is confused with the current account balance or the balance of payments, very serious misunderstandings occur.
Exec Talent
01-29-09, 12:55
It looks like the Stimulus Package will pass and as a result markets around the world are likely to benefit. Yesterday the exchange rate went down to around 2.28.
It would be good to have a daily government intervention report. "The following governments intervened in the following industries today. These companies are likely to benefit."
BTW, "Bad Bank" fits nicely into the song -- Bad Boys, Bad Boys. What you gonna do when they come for you? Time for a Youtube or SNL parody.
http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english
http://www4.bcb.gov.br/pec/taxas/ingl/ptaxnpesq.asp?id=quotations&id=quotations
Central Bank of Brasil's site, in english and good reading/info
Brazils trade position
2003 Trade surplus $24b
2003 Income deficit -$18b
2003 Current account surplus $4b
2004 Trade surplus $33b
2004 Income deficit -$20b
2004 Current account surplus $11b
2005 Trade surplus $44b
2005 Income deficit -$26b
2005 Current account surplus $14b
2006 Trade surplus $46b
2006 Income deficit -$27b
2006 Current account surplus $13b
2007 Trade surplus $40b
2007 Income deficit -$29b
2007 Current account surplus $2b
2008 Jan - Oct
2008 Trade surplus $20b
2008 Income deficit -$34b
2008 Current account deficit -$24b
From these figures Brazil was running a strong trade surplus with strong exports up until 2007. This resulted in positive current account surplus's. In 2008 exports have slowed down and imports have grown quickly, hence the trade surplus is smaller than the income deficit resulting in a current account deficit.
NB. The above accounts to not add up exactly due to a number of other smaller accounts. Everything gets balanced up on the capital account side, but the trend is clearer enough.
Carlos Primeros
02-01-09, 07:50
Hi all,
I just changed money in Salvador de Bahia,
as I did not have any Reais at the airport for the taxi, I changed 50 USD at the airport. I got 1 USD = 2,03 Reais.
In Pelorinho I was shopping around a little bit for a better excahnge-rate and got for 1000 USD 2140 Reais.
Best place to change money is Pelorinho as there are several money-changers side by side and they at least compete a little bit with each-other.
Carlos Primeros
Is that the Carlos I know? If so, give me a shout when you work down to Rio and tell me all about Salvador you lucky b***ard lol! :D
Thanks to the forum member who posted several hot cambios near Copa Palace - good to know clusters (though I think your case was maybe slightly overstated).
As a spot check, as I was going thru the airport the other day, I looked at the rates. I dunno what it is with the forum when péople say to avoid the airport cambio as if it were hidden wisdom. Ignoring my experience to the contrary and heeding forum advice, I did not change money. The rate for the British pound was 3.14. A few hours later I tried Amex at Copa palace (usually good IMO). It was 3.13. Two of the cambios listed in the earlier forum report offered 3.0.
Now you cannot haggle afaik at the airport or amex, but you sure can in any other cambio. I asked if they could do a better rate for a larger amount and lied and said Amex was offering 3.14 (I was fed up of lugging lotsa dosh round crimo Copa). They agreed. Took them 20 minutes to get the money though.
Cambios are like any other shop and their rate cuts vary against the competition from day to day in my own experience. Having said that, I have never, over about 7 years, found the airport offering a lower rate, and have usualy found AMex consistent. (Maybe they have a different policy on dollars??) Anywhere else depends on how well you haggle.
Catering to dollar lovers rather better was Florida which I passed yesterday. Blackboard outside says 30mins 35USD, 45m 45USD, 1hr 70USD. It was only about 6pm and not really open properly so I didn´t partake (other places round there more to my taste anyway.)
Ciao
As a ps to my last post, tried the cambio in Miguel Couto* today, which I´ve used before. The rack rate for the pound was 3.20. After haggling it was 3.25. The dollar rack rate was 2.26 (meant to phone Amex for a spot comparison for you but there was a movie I wanted to catch and had to rush).
If you do Centro of course, it is much safer if you have to wander around during the day with wads of cash than wandering around Copa. The chances of getting mugged in business hours in the main business distrcit are remote.
This worrying over rates though is very much glass-half-full/half-empty. Work out the difference for your whole spend and maybe you could do an extra terma visit. Average it out for your whole stay and it really is penny-pinching (like walking half a mile to get 0.2R off a can of beer).
*nice and handy for BA85 fans as it is just round the corner
For what its worth, I got 2.31 real per dollar out of an atm today -- fees included.
I'm good with that.
For what its worth, I got 2.31 real per dollar out of an atm today -- fees included.
I'm good with that.
Citibank????
The real may weaken or strengthen against the US$ and Can$. I think longer term, the real looks ok. I certainly don't think it will collapse. As someone who would like to visit Brazil and not be reduced to "window shopping", I ask the following practicable advice. What can I do today to lock in the real. I don't mind holding some real although I understand I won't be earning anything on the money. I have never traded futures, and I don't intend to now for locking in rates.
For me, the best case is the real collapses against the dollar. This is unlikely. Worst case, the dollar collapses. Unlikely, but dollar devaluation may start soon, depending also on geopolitical events.
What strategy would you recommend?
A friend from the forum arrived last night and couldn´t get any ATMs to work so I took him along to Balcony, which I gave him 2 for 1 against the dollar. Not the best rate but probably a good late night option in emergency for pocket money when you don´t want to get embroiled in Help or a terma.
[QUOTE=Christopherd]If you do Centro of course, it is much safer if you have to wander around during the day with wads of cash than wandering around Copa. The chances of getting mugged in business hours in the main business distrcit are remote.
Sorry Mr. C. downtown is extremely dangerous. One of my employees was mugged just because she ducked into a cambio to see the rates. I've been mugged downtown on Rua do Acre. Deaths are not uncommon. To name a few bodies: A couple of months ago on Uruguiana and a couple of years ago on Miguel Couto (he had just come out of the bank on the corner with Presidente Vargas.) and on Santa Lucia.
I avoid atms and cambios, but when I must I use the Citi on Araju Porto Alegre a couple of blocks east of Rio Branco. It affords a nice view to "read" the relatively calm street before emerging.
if you do centro of course, it is much safer if you have to wander around during the day with wads of cash than wandering around copa. the chances of getting mugged in business hours in the main business distrcit are remote.
sorry mr. c. downtown is extremely dangerous. one of my employees was mugged just because she ducked into a cambio to see the rates. i've been mugged downtown on rua do acre. deaths are not uncommon. to name a few bodies: a couple of months ago on uruguiana and a couple of years ago on miguel couto (he had just come out of the bank on the corner with presidente vargas.) and on santa lucia.
i avoid atms and cambios, but when i must i use the citi on araju porto alegre a couple of blocks east of rio branco. it affords a nice view to "read" the relatively calm street before emerging.
well sure. i said remote - in comparison to copa. i still take extreme precautions eg when going to cambios, both in keping my eyes peeled and in the various places where i hide my money. and rua acre is not the business district, it is north centro. neither is the business district particularly safer at weekends or evenings except when there´s stuff on. i wrote it assuming people who venture as far as centro have a little bit of street-wise. statistically (and bearing in mind there are many more people than in copa), i still think it is much safer in business hours and in the business district than copa.
an old friend of mine stands on his copa shop door much of the time happily predicting who is about to get mugged. it´s like people who say buses are dangerous. so is crossing the street (in fact that is my number one likely method of getting killed). if a bus gets held up it is big news, even if it is in some lowdive area. taxis, on the other hand, rarely stop at traffic lights at night and with good reason. each to their own.
stay safe.
Exec Talent
02-17-09, 17:26
Finally am seeing some good numbers.
R$-USD: 2.34
EUR-USD: 1.26
20,000 CA Government employees will hopefully be losing their jobs. Government budgets and spending is out of control. When property values were artificially inflated they all got fat and happy. Reality time. That $500,000 house never was worth more than $250,000. Government mismanagement unfortunately is a lot easier to hide than it is in the private sector.
well sure. i said remote - in comparison to copa. i still take extreme precautions eg when going to cambios, both in keping my eyes peeled and in the various places where i hide my money. and rua acre is not the business district, it is north centro. neither is the business district particularly safer at weekends or evenings except when there´s stuff on. i wrote it assuming people who venture as far as centro have a little bit of street-wise. statistically (and bearing in mind there are many more people than in copa), i still think it is much safer in business hours and in the business district than copa.
an old friend of mine stands on his copa shop door much of the time happily predicting who is about to get mugged. it´s like people who say buses are dangerous. so is crossing the street (in fact that is my number one likely method of getting killed). if a bus gets held up it is big news, even if it is in some lowdive area. taxis, on the other hand, rarely stop at traffic lights at night and with good reason. each to their own.
stay safe.
when i am going to exchange a large amount of cash or am going to withdrawal considerable amount of reais from a bank, i usually go with a brasilian friend who is waiting in his car or for my trust worthy taxi driver in rio. not letting my guard down has been a second nature process for me. yet, that does not give me 100% chance of being safe. but it at least lowers the %
El Austriaco
02-17-09, 22:18
Sorry Mr. C. downtown is extremely dangerous. One of my employees was mugged just because she ducked into a cambio to see the rates. I've been mugged downtown on Rua do Acre. Deaths are not uncommon. To name a few bodies: A couple of months ago on Uruguiana and a couple of years ago on Miguel Couto (he had just come out of the bank on the corner with Presidente Vargas.) and on Santa Lucia.
I agree with Christopherd on this. Usually, during daylight hours and with all the hustle and bustle in the streets, the chances of a monger or regular tourist for being singled out as victim of crime are definitely lower than in Copacabana. Needless to say, acting stupid, flashing a lot of cash or valuables or walking around in less than high-traffic areas, like in obscure side streets, increases chances significantly. On weekends and at night, many streets are pretty deserted and almost everything is closed, so the above caveat applies equally, if not more so.
I'd also like to add that common tourist attractions in proximity of Centro, such as the Santa Teresa tram station, the Lapa arches, and the New Cathedral do attract the same kind of tourist-aimed crime as elsewhere in Rio. Surprise surprise.
Does this mean that nothing can or will happen in Centro? Of course not. I remember sitting outside in a cafe on Rua Buenos Aires, smack of the intersection with Rua Miguel Couto, on a Friday evening, with tons of business people around knocking back a few choppes. Suddently, gunfire started just half a block away. Luckily, nobody was hurt. Unfortunately, stuff like that can happen anywhere in Rio... even in the best areas. Somebody remember the Balcony incident back in April 2006?
When I am going to exchange a large amount of cash or am going to withdrawal considerable amount of Reais from a bank, I usually go with a brasilian friend who is waiting in his car or for my trust worthy taxi driver in Rio.
I do exactly the same thing elsewhere in Rio, though I've never found an ATM that would accept foreign cards in Centro. Anyhow, this is very sound advice.
EA
JohnnyBraz
02-17-09, 22:54
I agree with Christopherd on this. Usually, during daylight hours and with all the hustle and bustle in the streets, the chances of a monger or regular tourist for being singled out as victim of crime are definitely lower than in Copacabana. Needless to say, acting stupid, flashing a lot of cash or valuables or walking around in less than high-traffic areas, like in obscure side streets, increases chances significantly. On weekends and at night, many streets are pretty deserted and almost everything is closed, so the above caveat applies equally, if not more so.
I'd also like to add that common tourist attractions in proximity of Centro, such as the Santa Teresa tram station, the Lapa arches, and the New Cathedral do attract the same kind of tourist-aimed crime as elsewhere in Rio. Surprise surprise.
Does this mean that nothing can or will happen in Centro? Of course not. I remember sitting outside in a cafe on Rua Buenos Aires, smack of the intersection with Rua Miguel Couto, on a Friday evening, with tons of business people around knocking back a few choppes. Suddently, gunfire started just half a block away. Luckily, nobody was hurt. Unfortunately, stuff like that can happen anywhere in Rio... even in the best areas. Somebody remember the Balcony incident back in April 2006?
I do exactly the same thing elsewhere in Rio, though I've never found an ATM that would accept foreign cards in Centro. Anyhow, this is very sound advice.
EACentro is safe during daylight hours, copa day and night, your biggest problem off getting robbed in Rio is by the fucking police. Day or night.
.....yesterday at normal cambio here in floripa, lagoa da coincenciao, changed 1 euro to 2,60 reais, when he saw me smiled a lot, he asked me how much euro i have, cause he told me, more than 500 euro and he will changes 1 euro to 2,70....I still keep on ATM from HSBC...
JohnnyBraz
02-18-09, 05:19
Finally am seeing some good numbers.
R$-USD: 2.34
EUR-USD: 1.26
20,000 CA Government employees will hopefully be losing their jobs. Government budgets and spending is out of control. When property values were artificially inflated they all got fat and happy. Reality time. That $500,000 house never was worth more than $250,000. Government mismanagement unfortunately is a lot easier to hide than it is in the private sector.Expect a jump over the next 5 weeks on the us dollar and japenese yen, as the finincial crisis deepens, people are turning back to us dollar and yen, also storing money in gold.
Poucolouco
02-18-09, 23:34
Expect a jump over the next 5 weeks on the us dollar and japenese yen, as the finincial crisis deepens, people are turning back to us dollar and yen, also storing money in gold.
Today´s quotes from UOL: 18.fev.2009 16h18
...................................... COMPRA VENDA VARIAÇÃO
Dólar comercial (em R$) ...... 2,350 .........2,352 1,16%
Dólar paralelo (em R$)......... 2,250 .........2,450 0,00%
Dólar turismo (em R$).......... 2,220 .........2,450 0,00%
Euro (em R$)..................... 2,936 .........2,939 0,04%
(three cambios visited all quoted 2.20)
HSBC SWIFT* and ATM rates were both 2.33.
* exchange fees additional.
A question for all you finance experts out there:
Will a continued drop in the Real against the dollar lead to greater inflation of the Real thereby blunting some of the perceived gains by holding dollars?
What, if any, is the relationship between exchange rate and inflation?
A question for all you finance experts out there:
Will a continued drop in the Real against the dollar lead to greater inflation of the Real thereby blunting some of the perceived gains by holding dollars?
Yes, but not on a one-to-one basis. To the extent to which Brazil imports US made stuff more than the US imports Brazilian made stuff, prices in Brazil will rise. That is because Brazilian exports to the US earn US dollars with which it can import US made stuff with no inflation effect. It is only the imports from the US that it must pay for with reais that will lead to inflation since it will take more of their currency to buy stuff from the US when its currency is depreciating. That higher cost is passed on to Brazilian consumers in the form of higher prices.
What, if any, is the relationship between exchange rate and inflation?
The relationship you identified is called the Purchasing Power Parity theorem. It states that every good in the world should sell for the equivalent economic cost in each country's currency. The Economist magazine has something called a Big Mac index that tracks the cost of a McDonald's Big Mac in the countries where it has restaurants. The different prices between two countries should be close to the exchange rate.
The principle behind the PPP is that when something in Brazil sells for a different price than the same thing in the US, then an entrepreneur can buy the thing in the country with the lower cost and sell it in the country with the higher cost, making a profit on the price difference less the transportation costs. Eventually the prices (economic cost) of the thing in both countries will become equal. (This is known as the Law of One Price.)
When there is inflation in one country (say Brazil) but not the other (say the US) , the price of the thing will rise in the country with inflation but not in the other. But since the economic cost of the thing needs to be the same in both countries, that means the currency in the country with inflation will buy less of the thing than the currency of the country without inflation. For the economic cost to remain equal in both countries, the exchange rate must rise. The country with no inflation, US, will receive more reais per dollar than before. In other words, when there is a differential in inflation rates between 2 countries, the exchange rate between them moves in favor of the country with the lower inflation rate.
In real life, the PPP seems to be weak or have a long lag time. There needs to be a change in the international trade of goods for the PPP to affect exchange rates. When there a long-term contracts or futures contracts, it can take several months for the inflation rate to be reflected in trade prices. Many countries have trade barriers such as tariffs and quotas that will prevent international trade from equalizing prices or affecting the exchange rate. In addition, the PPP is completely valid ONLY when ALL goods are tradable and traded. Some goods, like pussy, are not tradable (not capable of being imported or exported) so we can have a sustained differential in the price of pussy between the US and Brazil due to inflation and no effect on the exchange rate.
Yes, but not on a one-to-one basis. To the extent to which Brazil imports US made stuff more than the US imports Brazilian made stuff, prices in Brazil will rise. That is because Brazilian exports to the US earn US dollars with which it can import US made stuff with no inflation effect. It is only the imports from the US that it must pay for with reais that will lead to inflation since it will take more of their currency to buy stuff from the US when its currency is depreciating. That higher cost is passed on to Brazilian consumers in the form of higher prices.
The relationship you identified is called the Purchasing Power Parity theorem. It states that every good in the world should sell for the equivalent economic cost in each country's currency. The Economist magazine has something called a Big Mac index that tracks the cost of a McDonald's Big Mac in the countries where it has restaurants. The different prices between two countries should be close to the exchange rate.
The principle behind the PPP is that when something in Brazil sells for a different price than the same thing in the US, then an entrepreneur can buy the thing in the country with the lower cost and sell it in the country with the higher cost, making a profit on the price difference less the transportation costs. Eventually the prices (economic cost) of the thing in both countries will become equal. (This is known as the Law of One Price.)
When there is inflation in one country (say Brazil) but not the other (say the US) , the price of the thing will rise in the country with inflation but not in the other. But since the economic cost of the thing needs to be the same in both countries, that means the currency in the country with inflation will buy less of the thing than the currency of the country without inflation. For the economic cost to remain equal in both countries, the exchange rate must rise. The country with no inflation, US, will receive more reais per dollar than before. In other words, when there is a differential in inflation rates between 2 countries, the exchange rate between them moves in favor of the country with the lower inflation rate.
In real life, the PPP seems to be weak or have a long lag time. There needs to be a change in the international trade of goods for the PPP to affect exchange rates. When there a long-term contracts or futures contracts, it can take several months for the inflation rate to be reflected in trade prices. Many countries have trade barriers such as tariffs and quotas that will prevent international trade from equalizing prices or affecting the exchange rate. In addition, the PPP is completely valid ONLY when ALL goods are tradable and traded. Some goods, like pussy, are not tradable (not capable of being imported or exported) so we can have a sustained differential in the price of pussy between the US and Brazil due to inflation and no effect on the exchange rate.You speak of inflation changing the exchange rate. My question has more to do with exchange rate changing inflation of non-traded services. (Chicken vs egg, I know.) In other words, will in increasing value of the dollar vs the real cause the termas to raise their prices?
You speak of inflation changing the exchange rate. My question has more to do with exchange rate changing inflation of non-traded services. (Chicken vs egg, I know.) In other words, will in increasing value of the dollar vs the real cause the termas to raise their prices?
My answer to your second question deals with inflation causing the exchange rate. My answer to your first question deals with the exchange rate causing inflation.
All other things being equal, a declining value of the real will NOT lead to rising prices for non-traded goods.
The problem is that all other things are not equal. When the GDPs see the prices of their imports rising, they will want more money to cover their rising costs and thus rise their own prices to us. When they find out that our dollar is more valuable so that their services are cheaper to us, they will raise their prices because they think we can afford to pay more.
JohnnyBraz
02-21-09, 20:37
As I mentioned earlier. More demand for the us dollar expect a 5 % jump against most currencies the next 10 days. Zimbabwie's official currencey is now the us dollar. More and more people are now turning to us dollar as a safe haven as the financial crises deepens.
George, thats not really true. When the rate was 3 to 1, I was getting girls for 150 reals all day. The termas were 170 R for room and girl. The hotel was 100 reals a night. They had no clue what the value was to me. When the rate went to 1. 80, the girls were asking 200 to 300 reals. I had to bargain hard to get 200 to 250 reals, where before, they would say yes to 150 like it was a million bucks. The hotel was now 200 reals a night, and the termas raised their price to 250 to 270 reals for room and girl. They had no clue how expensive that was to me. Enjoy the prices now, because the dollar is going to crash in the next year. It can't stay this high. We have to much debt. The question is, will the R crash as much as the dollar, to keep things affordable for mongers.
JohnnyBraz
02-22-09, 09:01
George, thats not really true. When the rate was 3 to 1, I was getting girls for 150 reals all day. The termas were 170 R for room and girl. The hotel was 100 reals a night. They had no clue what the value was to me. When the rate went to 1. 80, the girls were asking 200 to 300 reals. I had to bargain hard to get 200 to 250 reals, where before, they would say yes to 150 like it was a million bucks. The hotel was now 200 reals a night, and the termas raised their price to 250 to 270 reals for room and girl. They had no clue how expensive that was to me. Enjoy the prices now, because the dollar is going to crash in the next year. It can't stay this high. We have to much debt. The question is, will the R crash as much as the dollar, to keep things affordable for mongers.It will be interesting to see how busy Rio is in March and April. Tourism is down alot. Could be a buyers market.
George, thats not really true.
Which part? You have made 2 statements in responding to my post. One is that pussy prices don't decline when the exchange rate falls. Two, that Brazilians don't know the exchange rate with the dollar.
I didn't say, nor do I claim, that all GDPs follow the exchange rate and adjust their prices accordingly. Some clever ones are aware and do adjust their prices to the value of the dollar or euro, but certainly not all or even most.
When the rate was 3 to 1, I was getting girls for 150 reals all day. The termas were 170 R for room and girl. The hotel was 100 reals a night. They had no clue what the value was to me. When the rate went to 1. 80, the girls were asking 200 to 300 reals. I had to bargain hard to get 200 to 250 reals, where before, they would say yes to 150 like it was a million bucks. The hotel was now 200 reals a night, and the termas raised their price to 250 to 270 reals for room and girl.
I believe you. I just think you are mistaken as to why you observed what you did. In the Rio de Janeiro threads, when the dollar was high mongerer after mongerer complained about some Americans and some Europeans paying ridiculously high prices to the GDPs. They quoted prices like $R400-$R800 for just 2 or 3 hours. Guys could afford to be that generous because the value of the real was so low. After it rose against the dollar, guys couldn't afford it, but the GDPs still expected those high prices and tried hard to stick to them.
The GDP and terma prices you observed were correlated with mongered spending behavior, not directly with exchange rates. It only appeared so because mongerer spending behavior is correlated with exchange rates.
I am talking about the last sentence of your post. "When they find out. ". If that were true, why wasnt the going rate 300 reals in help and the termas. I don't know anyone that was paying 400 to 800 reals when the rate was 3 to 1. Only a idiot would pay that much. You said they could afford 800 reals back then. Hell, thats 300 bucks. Most people can't afford that. Why do you think so many gringos quit going when we hit 1. 6. It cost them 200 dollars for a girl at a terma. That adds up when you go every night. I went to brazil about 8 times when the rates were 2. 3 to 3 to 1. No girl ever asked400 to 800 reals. They would start at 250 reals and I would get them down to 150. When the rate went down to 2. 3 and then 1. 7, they were actually asking more than when the rate was 3 to 1, which proves, they are not asking prices relative to how cheap they think it is to us. Maybe the cost of living for them went up. The entrance fee went up over the last 5 years and I guess the apartments went up for them also. I'm assumiong thats why they are asking more. It has nothing to do with exchange rate.
My last several trips, the airfare on American has been around $1100 from Chicago. In the last week, I'm finding airfare in the $800 range. My wingman got airfare on American from Miami for $816. (The rat bastard is in Rio, NOW)
And today, I found a fare of $793 from Chicago to Rio on United.
These are amazing airfares, especially during the Carnaval High Season. As a comparison, 8 years ago, on my first trip to Rio, my airfare was $642.
I hope this trend continues.
I don't know anyone that was paying 400 to 800 reals when the rate was 3 to 1. Only a idiot would pay that much.
Check out the Rio thread. "Idiot" is the very term that is used when referring to men who pay outrageous GDP prices.
It has nothing to do with exchange rate.
I think that I what I concluded below. It is due to the guys, (mostly Italians, if conventional wisdom is correct), who pay high rates.
My last several trips, the airfare on American has been around $1100 from Chicago. In the last week, I'm finding airfare in the $800 range. My wingman got airfare on American from Miami for $816. (The rat bastard is in Rio, NOW)
And today, I found a fare of $793 from Chicago to Rio on United.
These are amazing airfares, especially during the Carnaval High Season. As a comparison, 8 years ago, on my first trip to Rio, my airfare was $642.
I hope this trend continues.
So do I. Just today I was checking out fares for a trip to Salvador this summer. On one set of dates, the fare on AA was $665, taxes included. That is the lowest regular fare I have ever seen on a major airline.
I don't know what TAM is going to do. While the service on TAM beats AA by kilometers, AA is beating TAM of the fares. They should lower their fares to compete. But we have all dealt with Brazilian business philosphy, so I won't hold my breath.
....It is due to the guys, (mostly Italians, if conventional wisdom is correct), who pay high rates.
I am italian, I do not belong to that ones, believe it or not, and the ones I met in help looked to me enough greedy to overpay, however I can say the worst italians I saw in 14 years of mongering, I saw here in Brazil....I am thinking to improve my portuguese to make the garotas do not understand where I am from ;)
And btw....one garota told me, during my second week in Rio, that many girls ask to men from european countries with euro, higher prices than from the ones that comes from USA, I still guess if it can be true or not....if yes, from now I am Luke from California LOL
Black Snake
02-23-09, 00:39
So do I. Just today I was checking out fares for a trip to Salvador this summer. On one set of dates, the fare on AA was $665, taxes included. That is the lowest regular fare I have ever seen on a major airline.
I don't know what TAM is going to do. While the service on TAM beats AA by kilometers, AA is beating TAM of the fares. They should lower their fares to compete. But we have all dealt with Brazilian business philosphy, so I won't hold my breath.My fare was $860 and I departed on Feb 11th from Chicago
Jazzy Daddy
02-27-09, 17:44
Has anyone here in rio received exchange rates close to the published rate today? Thanks.
Do not know about today, but yesterday I tried 5 cambios in av. ns senhora copa and the best one was 1 euro 2,88 reais but cause I changed 500 euro, otherwise the same cambio wanted to change me 100 euro to 283 reais.
Poucolouco
02-27-09, 21:07
Has anyone here in rio received exchange rates close to the published rate today? Thanks.
To which published rates are you referring.
I received R$2.3459 = 1$US at HSBC today @16:46.
Jazzy Daddy
02-27-09, 21:24
PL,
Was that rate pulled from ATM? Thanks
Poucolouco
02-27-09, 22:00
PL,
Was that rate pulled from ATM? Thanks
Yes. I forgot to mention that I used the ATM. The only true cambio that you can get from HSBC is with wire transfers. I have found that their wire transfer cambio is the exact rate you get from their ATM machines.
Has anyone here in rio received exchange rates close to the published rate today? Thanks.
Not checked official rates but tried 6 cambios today, 3 in Copa and three in Centro. In Copa, Amex was the best and the other two awful. First two I tried in Centro were awful (including Miguel Couto which gave me a good rate before) and wouldn´t budge on the rate. Eventually got a good rate - and which was slightly better than Amex - from a cambio on the third floor of the big Avenida building over Carioca station. For the difference, Amex (Copa Palace) would have been less hassle.
I think in the weeks and months ahead we are going to see a rise in the real:dollar exchange rate to 3:1 or more. My reasoning has to do with the pressure Brazil is going to be under to increase exports. Exports are way down as are prices. One way to make commodities even more attractive (and also to increase tourism) is to allow the exchange rate to rise.
However, one has to follow the data closely and as always these days be ready for government intervention to throw a wrench in the works.The market in Brazil has too many ups and downs.
Impossible to foresee the rate in a couple days or next day.
3:1 its a good thing...maybe in July we`ll see something like that.
Exec Talent
03-01-09, 14:55
PL,
Was that rate pulled from ATM? Thanks
HSBC is paying 2.37 - 2.38. It lags by a day www.xe.com. FYI, Cambios are offering significantly less. That may change in a few weeks once the Carnaval dollars dry up.
Poucolouco
03-01-09, 23:50
HSBC is paying 2.37 - 2.38. It lags by a day www.xe.com. FYI, Cambios are offering significantly less. That may change in a few weeks once the Carnaval dollars dry up.
HSBC posts FX rates which are quite close to their current ATM exchange payout. See: http://www.hsbcnet.com/treasury/market-data
Exec Talent
03-02-09, 22:14
The market in Brazil has too many ups and downs.
Impossible to foresee the rate in a couple days or next day.
3:1 its a good thing...maybe in July we`ll see something like that.
The up was to 2.45 today.
JohnnyBraz
03-03-09, 06:54
As I mentioned earlier. More demand for the us dollar expect a 5 % jump against most currencies the next 10 days. Zimbabwie's official currencey is now the us dollar. More and more people are now turning to us dollar as a safe haven as the financial crises deepens.As I said. Watch it jump.
Question to the board about the dollar. If the dollar crashes, like the brilliant economist peter schiff and Jim Rogers say will happen, because of all the money we are printing and wasting, will it matter as long as the brazilian economy also crashes. For those that don't know peter schiff, go on youtube.com and watch all his predictions from years ago. If he is right, what will the exchange rate be against the real.
It seems that the world is in for some big time currency collapses, depending on how leveraged the Brazilian economy is will significantly determine the depths of a Real collapse if any.
There are a lot of currencys with their heads on the block, the ax will be falling shortly.
Question to the board about the dollar. If the dollar crashes, like the brilliant economist peter schiff and Jim Rogers say will happen, because of all the money we are printing and wasting, will it matter as long as the brazilian economy also crashes. For those that don't know peter schiff, go on youtube.com and watch all his predictions from years ago. If he is right, what will the exchange rate be against the real.
Last week, there were several articles on this topic in Bloomberg. The general consensus was that there is no country in the world whose economy is stable enough to foster confidence in tis currency. By default, the US dollar is the currency of choice in the flight to quality. That means the US dollar will remain strong against all other currencies (euro, pound, yen) for as long as the current world recess/depression lasts.
The first country to start growing at a consistent clip will experience a LARGE increase in the demand for its currency and its value will rise rapidly. The value of te US dollar will fall agianst that currency. If it is the USA that is the first economny to emerge and grow, then its value will remain high against other currencies.
Since Brazil's economy is resource based, it will rebound only after manufacturing economies, like China's, start growing. Therefore, Brazil's currency will only start to regain value after other countries' currencies have regained their values. The real will continue to fall against the dollar BEFORE it rises against it.
BBC site has added customisable charts showing currency fluctuations that may be of interest.
e.g. Real to Dollar over 3 months -
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/12/12258/three_month.stm
so I just checked my Wachovia account after taking out 1000 Reals the other day. I was hit for a $5 fee for checking my balance, a $5 fee for the withdrawl and then a 5% international surcharge??? What the fuck??? So total fee to withdrawl $420 US is $18.41. What a crock of shit. Wachovia will be losing my buisness when I get back to the states. Any of you have experience with these high fees at your banks????
so I just checked my Wachovia account after taking out 1000 Reals the other day. I was hit for a $5 fee for checking my balance, a $5 fee for the withdrawl and then a 5% international surcharge??? What the fuck??? So total fee to withdrawl $420 US is $18.41. What a crock of shit. Wachovia will be losing my buisness when I get back to the states. Any of you have experience with these high fees at your banks????
YES!!!!!
I use Bank of America. I get hit with a $R10 fee from the Brazilian bank and a $5.00 fee from BoA. That yields a total of around $9.00 in fees per transaction. I am supposed to get 2 free international ATM withdrawals a month, but it seems they have taken that away (or something).
yes!!!!!
i use bank of america. i get hit with a $r10 fee from the brazilian bank and a $5.00 fee from boa. that yields a total of around $9.00 in fees per transaction. i am supposed to get 2 free international atm withdrawals a month, but it seems they have taken that away (or something).
at least i'm not the only one getting ass raped by the banks while my tax dollars are paying these douche bags salary. i've used my atm card in costa rica and europe and was never charged $5 to check my balance. i fired off an email just now saying if i wasn't reembursed for some of these fees, i was closing my account. not like they care anyway... at least i blew off some steam. lol
JohnnyBraz
03-13-09, 07:28
500 euro notes?
Will help cash them?
Whats the rate at the moment?
El Minetero
03-14-09, 05:17
i use bank of america. i get hit with a $r10 fee from the brazilian bank and a $5.00 fee from boa. that yields a total of around $9.00 in fees per transaction. i am supposed to get 2 free international atm withdrawals a month, but it seems they have taken that away (or something).
at least i'm not the only one getting ass raped by the banks while my tax dollars are paying these douche bags salary. i've used my atm card in costa rica and europe and was never charged $5 to check my balance. i fired off an email just now saying if i wasn't reembursed for some of these fees, i was closing my account. not like they care anyway... at least i blew off some steam. lol
try mechanics bank, www.mechbank.com, of northern california. they give a no fee atm card and reimburse foreign bank fees.
khun talung
Sunset Strip
03-14-09, 06:04
i use bank of america. i get hit with a $r10 fee from the brazilian bank and a $5.00 fee from boa. that yields a total of around $9.00 in fees per transaction. i am supposed to get 2 free international atm withdrawals a month, but it seems they have taken that away (or something).
at least i'm not the only one getting ass raped by the banks while my tax dollars are paying these douche bags salary. i've used my atm card in costa rica and europe and was never charged $5 to check my balance. i fired off an email just now saying if i wasn't reembursed for some of these fees, i was closing my account. not like they care anyway... at least i blew off some steam. lol
try mechanics bank, www.mechbank.com, of northern california. they give a no fee atm card and reimburse foreign bank fees.
khun talung
credit unions are normally pretty good to.
i am with navy federal credit union, and i get charged $1 for every transaction while in rio. plus whatever the brazilian bank charges, of course.
tj
The dollar is now crashing. We are at 82. Buy as many reals as you can because your dollars will be worthless. The fed announced they are going to print another 1 trillion buying up crap. Its tanked since.
so I just checked my Wachovia account after taking out 1000 Reals the other day. I was hit for a $5 fee for checking my balance, a $5 fee for the withdrawl and then a 5% international surcharge??? What the fuck??? So total fee to withdrawl $420 US is $18.41. What a crock of shit. Wachovia will be losing my buisness when I get back to the states. Any of you have experience with these high fees at your banks????
My regular US bank also has pretty high fees, but not that high. I now use a PayPal debit card for most ATM withdrawals in Brazil. They only charge a $1 transaction fee per withdrawal. The only bad thing about it is that it's limited to $400 per day for ATM withdrawals, so instead of getting the usual R$1,000 max at most ATMs you have to withdraw a little less depending on the current exchange rate.
Aside from the reduced fees, I also seem to get a slightly better exchange rate from PayPal.
The dollar is now crashing. We are at 82. Buy as many reals as you can because your dollars will be worthless. The fed announced they are going to print another 1 trillion buying up crap. Its tanked since.
They are monetizing our debt like I pointed out earlier in this forum. I said they would do this a few months back before this crises.
Today the dollar was at 2.18> down from recent days. I am in the states now, but have an oppurtunity to get exchange within the next few days. A friend will be in Brasil and will be willing to exchange dollars for me.
I will headed to Rio in a couple of months. Wondering if I should just bypass the chance to exchange now, and wait until I get there or play it safe and exchange within the next few days.
Any educated guesses?
Today the dollar was at 2.18> down from recent days. I am in the states now, but have an oppurtunity to get exchange within the next few days. A friend will be in Brasil and will be willing to exchange dollars for me.
I will headed to Rio in a couple of months. Wondering if I should just bypass the chance to exchange now, and wait until I get there or play it safe and exchange within the next few days.
Any educated guesses?
Well, like I stated a couple months back on this thread, there is a direct inverse relationship between the US stock market and the Real. When the market was tanking, the Real rallied from 1.90 all the way up to 2.47. Since the market bottomed at 6500 and is now currently up 24% at just over 8000, the real has slid. If you believe this is just a bear market rally then I would hold on and exchange your money when you go, however if you believe this is gonna be a prolonged sustained rally then I would exchange your money now. I for one am in the camp that this is a bear market rally and that we will retest the lows again. So basically I say hold your reals for when you make your trip.
Poucolouco
04-10-09, 22:43
Today the dollar was at 2.18> down from recent days. I am in the states now, but have an oppurtunity to get exchange within the next few days. A friend will be in Brasil and will be willing to exchange dollars for me.
I will headed to Rio in a couple of months. Wondering if I should just bypass the chance to exchange now, and wait until I get there or play it safe and exchange within the next few days.
Any educated guesses?
First thing, the dollar has averaged about 2.30 since October. The drop of the past week or so is likely temporary. The dollar is still strong and preferred in world trade. The next two months could produce good economic news in the US and improvement in the dollar exchange. With 2 months to go, you have plenty of time to exchange your money. Just monitor the situation for a while.
Well, like I stated a couple months back on this thread, there is a direct inverse relationship between the US stock market and the Real. When the market was tanking, the Real rallied from 1.90 all the way up to 2.47. Since the market bottomed at 6500 and is now currently up 24% at just over 8000, the real has slid. If you believe this is just a bear market rally then I would hold on and exchange your money when you go, however if you believe this is gonna be a prolonged sustained rally then I would exchange your money now. I for one am in the camp that this is a bear market rally and that we will retest the lows again. So basically I say hold your reals for when you make your trip.
Lancer,
You have it backwards! LOL!
The exchange rates you quoted are in terms reais per dollar. The lower the number, the stronger the real and weaker the dollar. The higher the number the weaker the real and the stronger the dollar.
Going from 1.90 to 2.47 is a strengthening of the dollar, not a rally for the real. The fall this week to 2.18 from 2.47 is a rally for the real and a tank for the dollar.
First thing, the dollar has averaged about 2.30 since October. The drop of the past week or so is likely temporary. The dollar is still strong and preferred in world trade. The next two months could produce good economic news in the US and improvement in the dollar exchange. With 2 months to go, you have plenty of time to exchange your money. Just monitor the situation for a while.
I certainly hope you are right in your prediction. I am tryng to travel in mid-May. I need for the dollar to stay well above 2.00, preferably in the 2.30 area.
I can't see a sound fundamental reason for this current rally for the real. Brazil's banks are in good shape but its economy is tanking because China is not buying its raw materials, and the US and Europe are not buying its Embraer regional jets. Brazil doesn't have enough entrepreneurship and innovation to kick-start its economy by itself. I don't understand these recent movements.
Lancer,
You have it backwards! LOL!
The exchange rates you quoted are in terms reais per dollar. The lower the number, the stronger the real and weaker the dollar. The higher the number the weaker the real and the stronger the dollar.
Going from 1.90 to 2.47 is a strengthening of the dollar, not a rally for the real. The fall this week to 2.18 from 2.47 is a rally for the real and a tank for the dollar.
Thanks George. Most of what I was writting made sense, but I'm hopped up on Vicotin from a staph infection so I'm a little woozy. The only thing that could cause the Real to drop further over the next couple months is if Obama has to throw another trillion at this bailout. ZZZZZZZ. Goodnight!!!
The Recent Real strength is a result of the large amount of foreign investment inflows, As the US markets have rallied people are moving out of their safety trades.. (The dollar,Gold, and treasuries) and into stocks,bonds, and currencies that provide more opportunity for a higher return.
The bovespa is at a 3 month high. Oil and copper have rallied.
The Brazilian Central Bank has been lowering rates to stimulate the slowing economy,, that usually makes the real weaker. Right now though it just seems that if the risk trade is on the real gets stronger.
JohnnyBraz
04-13-09, 22:43
The Recent Real strength is a result of the large amount of foreign investment inflows, As the US markets have rallied people are moving out of their safety trades. (The dollar, Gold, and treasuries) and into stocks, bonds, and currencies that provide more opportunity for a higher return.
The bovespa is at a 3 month high. Oil and copper have rallied.
The Brazilian Central Bank has been lowering rates to stimulate the slowing economy, that usually makes the real weaker. Right now though it just seems that if the risk trade is on the real gets stronger.changed 2000$ us dollars today over the road from blame it on Rio travel. Exchange rate 2.20.
Brazil is in much better shape than the U.S. And in fact Brazil will wether the storm much better and will come out of the crises much faster than the U.S.
Low interest rates are helping low income families to buy houses, Part of Brazil's stimulus is to build many new homes for low income Brazilians.
(By contrast with low interest rates in developed economies, has led to quantitive easing/printig money.You don't give alcoholic more alcohol after a binge.)
Brazil arranged a first-ever US$30 billion no-strings, short-term currency swap with the U.S. Federal Reserve,
Sure Brazil will experience a slow down, but no where near a catastrophe. Brazil will bounce back much faster than many countries because Brazil produces what the world needs, & Brazilians has low personal debt and uses much less credit the first world countries, and there is no real estate bubble, Brazil's banks are well capitalized and not exposed to the problems the U.S has.
And another thing Brazil's energy is 46% renewable, leading the world. Brazil has become the first country to substitute its automobile gasoline requirements with renewable low emission bio fuel
Brazil is in much better shape than the U.S. And in fact Brazil will wether the storm much better and will come out of the crises much faster than the U.S.
Low interest rates are helping low income families to buy houses, Part of Brazil's stimulus is to build many new homes for low income Brazilians.
(By contrast with low interest rates in developed economies, has led to quantitive easing/printig money.You don't give alcoholic more alcohol after a binge.)
Brazil arranged a first-ever US$30 billion no-strings, short-term currency swap with the U.S. Federal Reserve,
Sure Brazil will experience a slow down, but no where near a catastrophe. Brazil will bounce back much faster than many countries because Brazil produces what the world needs, & Brazilians has low personal debt and uses much less credit the first world countries, and there is no real estate bubble, Brazil's banks are well capitalized and not exposed to the problems the U.S has.
And another thing Brazil's energy is 46% renewable, leading the world. Brazil has become the first country to substitute its automobile gasoline requirements with renewable low emission bio fuel
Everything you stated sounds nice and rosy and I hope for their sake and the benefit of the citizens in general, it all comes true. But the reality is that many people forget just to what extent corruption exist in this wonderful country.
Granted, all countries have corruption within their government agencies, but Brasil has a huge amount of corruption as well. So what is suppose to happen, does not always happen because of this factor. Lets see what happens. Should be interesting to follow.
Brazil is in much better shape than the U.S. And in fact Brazil will wether the storm much better and will come out of the crises much faster than the U.S.....Presumably you've never heard the well known observation that "Brazil is the country of the future and it always will be".
Presumably you've never heard the well known observation that "Brazil is the country of the future and it always will be".
I never heard that. Can you send me a link?
I never heard that. Can you send me a link?http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4460068.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4460068.stm
The first time the phrase was used was in 1941. 68 years ago. Here's the text.
In 1941, the Austrian author Stefan Zweig, who had emigrated to Brazil, wrote a book praising his new homeland as "the country of the future" - then committed suicide months later in despair at the state of war-torn Europe.
I guess he could not wait. The future for Brazil is a long way off. Perhaps another 68 years.
I recently read news / business articles that supported what Madd Love wrote.
I read the following in Bloomberg today:
"
“I do not look for an immediate collapse,” says Hans Goetti, chief investment officer at LGT Bank in Liechtenstein (Singapore) Ltd. “I am bearish longer term as the Fed will continue with their demolition job on their balance sheet.”
The Federal Reserve’s move to cut interest rates to near zero and pump tidal waves of liquidity into markets hasn’t sent the dollar into freefall yet. More Fed liquidity and government borrowing are likely. Once the U.S. begins to recover, the historic steps that such an outcome required can’t be good for the dollar.
Not that the U.S. would mind a weaker dollar, so long as the move is orderly. You didn’t see many signs of panic in 2008 when the dollar was falling. Most economies in recession would welcome a more competitive exchange rate. The risk, though, is that the dollar’s drop will be a sharp one and spook markets.
"
In trying to get out of the current recession/depression we may have sown the seeds of a freefall in the value of the US dollar. If Brazil indeed weathers the current economic storm and emerges in good shape, we may see an exchangerate of 1.5 reais/dollar or less.
Everything you stated sounds nice and rosy and I hope for their sake and the benefit of the citizens in general, it all comes true. But the reality is that many people forget just to what extent corruption exist in this wonderful country.
Granted, all countries have corruption within their government agencies, but Brasil has a huge amount of corruption as well. So what is suppose to happen, does not always happen because of this factor. Lets see what happens. Should be interesting to follow.
I agree with you that Brazil does have corruption, but the U.S has corruption as well, there has been scandal after scandal with governors, Treasury secretaries, corrupt financial markets, etc...
Brazil is a creditor nation unlike the U.S.
The U.S. is the worlds largest debtor, and the stimulus package is going to devalue the dollar if the economies of the world recover. Probably much faster than the last 6 years, looking at the last few years of growth the U.S debt was being financed because the U.S. was buying other countries exported products with debt.
Now with most economies in recession, and the New Stimulus plan proposed by the U.S quickly made China called into question "The U.S. integrity of its debt". China is not going to pay for a new dog park, contraceptives, and things that have nothing to do with stimulus. Especially when the U.S consumer is in decline. 70% of the U.S GDP is consumer spending, not government spending, maybe if the money was directed at consumers and not banks than it would be a different story.
Brazil is on track to being a first world economy. It has been doing a lot of things right for the past few years and is even trying to fix problems with corruption. They even reached out to their citizens to help them trust police with a new social network, it will take a while for Brazil to get there, but its doing all the right things more so than first world economies.
The U.S would not even drill in its own back yard for proven oil reserves, while Brazil has been drilling off its cost with an large oil find that it will sell to the world.
So far it seems like the U.S has been doing all the wrong things while Brazil is on track doing the right things.
Iluvthatwoman
04-18-09, 04:21
Madd Love I agree with most of your statements but I think we might disagree on the conclusions. I agree that the Brazilian economy is on the up swing. I agree that the US economy has some very weak points. I agree that America's debtor status can not continue.
But I get the impression that you are making the point that the Brasilian economy will be a 1st world economy and the US won't. If that is what you are saying I could not disagree more. There is no doubt that the growth potential for the Brazilian economy is huge, that is exactly why I am invested there. However, Brazil has some internal problems that need to be fixed prior to becoming a 1st world economy. One of the biggest of those problems is Brazil's educational systems.
As a person who does business in Brazil and deals with large multi-national companies doing business in Brazil I can tell you that finding qualified educated professionals in Brazil is not easy. Brazil's economic strategy is to be very protectionist. Because of the pretectionism, the Brazilian Government requires companies to hire a high percentage of Brazilians across the company. That requirement is not such a burden if you can find the qualified people. That issue has prevented many companies from moving to Brazil and it will continue to be a problem until the educational system improves in Brazil.
Until Brazil improves its middle class and its educational system I don't see it becoming a 1st world economy on par with the US.
I agree with you that Brazil does have corruption, but the U. S has corruption as well, there has been scandal after scandal with governors, Treasury secretaries, corrupt financial markets, etc.
Brazil is a creditor nation unlike the U. S.
The U. S. Is the worlds largest debtor, and the stimulus package is going to devalue the dollar if the economies of the world recover. Probably much faster than the last 6 years, looking at the last few years of growth the U. S debt was being financed because the U. S. Was buying other countries exported products with debt.
Now with most economies in recession, and the New Stimulus plan proposed by the U. S quickly made China called into question "The U. S. Integrity of its debt". China is not going to pay for a new dog park, contraceptives, and things that have nothing to do with stimulus. Especially when the U. S consumer is in decline. 70% of the U. S GDP is consumer spending, not government spending, maybe if the money was directed at consumers and not banks than it would be a different story.
Brazil is on track to being a first world economy. It has been doing a lot of things right for the past few years and is even trying to fix problems with corruption. They even reached out to their citizens to help them trust police with a new social network, it will take a while for Brazil to get there, but its doing all the right things more so than first world economies.
The U. S would not even drill in its own back yard for proven oil reserves, while Brazil has been drilling off its cost with an large oil find that it will sell to the world.
So far it seems like the U. S has been doing all the wrong things while Brazil is on track doing the right things.
One of the biggest of those problems is Brazil's educational systems.
As a person who does business in Brazil and deals with large multi-national companies doing business in Brazil I can tell you that finding qualified educated professionals in Brazil is not easy. Brazil's economic strategy is to be very protectionist. Because of the pretectionism, the Brazilian Government requires companies to hire a high percentage of Brazilians across the company. That requirement is not such a burden if you can find the qualified people. That issue has prevented many companies from moving to Brazil and it will continue to be a problem until the educational system improves in Brazil.
Until Brazil improves its middle class and its educational system I don't see it becoming a 1st world economy on par with the US.
Interesting observations, and well articulated. As for improving the middle class, I would say the middle class needs further development. But I realize that class perception changes from person to person, and country to country.
ryjer
Madd Love I agree with most of your statements but I think we might disagree on the conclusions. I agree that the Brazilian economy is on the up swing. I agree that the US economy has some very weak points. I agree that America's debtor status can not continue.
But I get the impression that you are making the point that the Brasilian economy will be a 1st world economy and the US won't. If that is what you are saying I could not disagree more. There is no doubt that the growth potential for the Brazilian economy is huge, that is exactly why I am invested there. However, Brazil has some internal problems that need to be fixed prior to becoming a 1st world economy. One of the biggest of those problems is Brazil's educational systems.
As a person who does business in Brazil and deals with large multi-national companies doing business in Brazil I can tell you that finding qualified educated professionals in Brazil is not easy. Brazil's economic strategy is to be very protectionist. Because of the pretectionism, the Brazilian Government requires companies to hire a high percentage of Brazilians across the company. That requirement is not such a burden if you can find the qualified people. That issue has prevented many companies from moving to Brazil and it will continue to be a problem until the educational system improves in Brazil.
Until Brazil improves its middle class and its educational system I don't see it becoming a 1st world economy on par with the US.
I am not saying Brazil will be the #1 economy in the world, in fact no one knows who will be #1 in the future. A lot of talk has been floating around that China will be the #1 economy in the future. In reality I would love for my country to be & stay #1. But with the foolish policies in place its unlikely. The future will be more likely bilateral, rather than unilateral.
Brazil is unique where it has a head start compare to the rest of the world in energy. whoever has acces or develops a new potential viable energy source will lead in the future.
If Brazil keeps doing what it has been doing economically for the past few years it will have great influence in the America's and globally, because Brazil has what the world needs. China needs to import many commodities, as well as the U.S. mainly dependent on other countries. And China's population will put a strain on natural resources. By comparison the U.S is 5% of the worlds population and uses 25% of the worlds goods. China is much larger than the U.S and will considerably run into problems growing its economy if it can't access oil.
World oil peak about 3 years ago and since then production has remained flat or is in decline.
Nothing happens overnight and I am sorry most of you disagree with Brazil being a viable country in the future, but the trend is there.
Iluvthatwoman
04-19-09, 02:26
I am not saying Brazil will be the #1 economy in the world, in fact no one knows who will be #1 in the future. A lot of talk has been floating around that China will be the #1 economy in the future. In reality I would love for my country to be & stay #1. But with the foolish policies in place its unlikely. The future will be more likely bilateral, rather than unilateral.
Brazil is unique where it has a head start compare to the rest of the world in energy. whoever has acces or develops a new potential viable energy source will lead in the future.
If Brazil keeps doing what it has been doing economically for the past few years it will have great influence in the America's and globally, because Brazil has what the world needs. China needs to import many commodities, as well as the U.S. mainly dependent on other countries. And China's population will put a strain on natural resources. By comparison the U.S is 5% of the worlds population and uses 25% of the worlds goods. China is much larger than the U.S and will considerably run into problems growing its economy if it can't access oil.
World oil peak about 3 years ago and since then production has remained flat or is in decline.
Nothing happens overnight and I am sorry most of you disagree with Brazil being a viable country in the future, but the trend is there.Madd,
I understand what you are saying about the economy in Brazil and like I said in my post with you for the most part. I agree that it is a place where any smart investor should think about putting their money. But, that is because of the"growth" capabilities, not because of the stability. I agree that it is a good place to do business.
The Brazilian economy is stronger and more stable than it was 30 years ago. But it would be foolish to think of it as a "safe" bet to continue on its upward climb. I think that it will continue to climb and I have a considerable financial stake in its growth. But it is a bet, no different than a bet on the craps table in Vegas. I have made that bet and I encourage my friends and clients to make similar bets. What happens in Brazil if someone in the US comes up with another way to power cars? What happens if the US really does find a way to reduce its dependence on foreign oil?
But, my only point to you was that the economy is not diverse enough yet to over come some of the issues that could potentially slow it down like the educational system. At some point you need qualified people work to allow a economy to grow. If Brazil continues its protectionist attitude there will not be enough people to run its businesses. I am hoping it will continue its growth.
Just my two cents
Madd,
I understand what you are saying about the economy in Brazil and like I said in my post with you for the most part. I agree that it is a place where any smart investor should think about putting their money. But, that is because of the"growth" capabilities, not because of the stability. I agree that it is a good place to do business.
The Brazilian economy is stronger and more stable than it was 30 years ago. But it would be foolish to think of it as a "safe" bet to continue on its upward climb. I think that it will continue to climb and I have a considerable financial stake in its growth. But it is a bet, no different than a bet on the craps table in Vegas. I have made that bet and I encourage my friends and clients to make similar bets. What happens in Brazil if someone in the US comes up with another way to power cars? What happens if the US really does find a way to reduce its dependence on foreign oil?
But, my only point to you was that the economy is not diverse enough yet to over come some of the issues that could potentially slow it down like the educational system. At some point you need qualified people work to allow a economy to grow. If Brazil continues its protectionist attitude there will not be enough people to run its businesses. I am hoping it will continue its growth.
Just my two centsI agree with most of what is said in this quote, but there is a few problems with Brazil. The unemployment rate of the middle class and yes the qualifications of the Brasilero to be educated enough to handle as a whole the growth and the demand of a growing economy, which without a strong middle class will not survive for a long period of time. Look at the USA, the middle class stopped spending and started disappearing, which in part lead to it's recession, not to mention the money that was spent on the war. But it is the middle-class that helps support the economy.
Pipe Layer99
04-20-09, 20:40
The rates have been down for the last few days. I stopped in a few cambios and I´ve seem the x-rates from R$2.10 - 2.15 to 1 US dollar. Today its back up to R2.21. Keeping my fingers crossed.
The rates have been down for the last few days. I stopped in a few cambios and I´ve seem the x-rates from R$2.10 - 2.15 to 1 US dollar. Today its back up to R2.21. Keeping my fingers crossed.
Are you already back in Rio you luck bastard? LOL. You should get a better exchange rate tomorrow. Somewhere around 2.25. The real was down .05 against the dollar today. I think your gonna see 2.30 by weeks end with the US stock market crashing down to earth. Hit one or two for me. I might night make it back till september now.
Neverenuff
04-21-09, 23:05
I really haven't searched this thread so uhh pardon my laziness but I've got a ton stuff to get done before my first trip to Rio this Thursday.
I am staying 8 days. Have to pay balance of apt rental upon accepting key. Plan to eat, hang glide, take jujitsu or capoeira lessons and party.
How much dollars should I bring? Is it necessary to bring dollars? Does the ATM's out there dole out reals? Would it be wiser to use the ATM's than bringing dollars? Oh I use citibank. I read somewhere here there's a citibank atm there. How far is it from HELP?
Thanks in advance. I can't wait to go!
I really haven't searched this thread so uhh pardon my laziness but I've got a ton stuff to get done before my first trip to Rio this Thursday.
I am staying 8 days. Have to pay balance of apt rental upon accepting key. Plan to eat, hang glide, take jujitsu or capoeira lessons and party.
How much dollars should I bring? Is it necessary to bring dollars? Does the ATM's out there dole out reals? Would it be wiser to use the ATM's than bringing dollars? Oh I use citibank. I read somewhere here there's a citibank atm there. How far is it from HELP?
Thanks in advance. I can't wait to go!
There are two of them about 6 blocks away from each other in Ipanema. They are on Rua Visconde de Piraja. As for the other in Copa, its on N. Senhora street.
I really haven't searched this thread so uhh pardon my laziness but I've got a ton stuff to get done before my first trip to Rio this Thursday.
I am staying 8 days. Have to pay balance of apt rental upon accepting key. Plan to eat, hang glide, take jujitsu or capoeira lessons and party.
How much dollars should I bring? Is it necessary to bring dollars? Does the ATM's out there dole out reals? Would it be wiser to use the ATM's than bringing dollars? Oh I use citibank. I read somewhere here there's a citibank atm there. How far is it from HELP?
Thanks in advance. I can't wait to go!
To get the best exchange rate it is best to bring US $100 bills. For whatever reason, they give you a couple cent better rate with 100's rather then 20's. ATM's dole out Reals only from what I remember. If you look back in my posts, the problem with using ATM machines is the fees you get whacked for. Even if you are a citibank customer in the US, you get hit with a foreign exchange fee and i believe you still get charged withdrawl fees. On top of that, the most you can take out at one time is 1000 Reals which is just over $400 US. My advice is bring a significant amount of cash, especially if you have a safe. Hope this helps.
Exec Talent
05-04-09, 22:08
Bad News - Dollar exchange went down to 2.11 today
Good News - BOVESPA was up over 6.5% and closed over 50,000
Bad News - Dollar exchange went down to 2.11 today
That sucks, but back when it was around 3.35 in Jan., lick the practical mongerer that I am, I exchanged a few thousand for future trips..............
ryjer
JohnnyBraz
05-05-09, 01:55
That sucks, but back when it was around 3.35 in Jan., lick the practical mongerer that I am, I exchanged a few thousand for future trips..............
RyjerHow many years ago was that? January 2002?
Poucolouco
05-05-09, 03:47
That sucks, but back when it was around 3.35 in Jan., lick the practical mongerer that I am, I exchanged a few thousand for future trips..............
ryjer
Dollar at R$3.35? You dream. What year was that?
Dollar at R$3.35? You dream. What year was that?
January, 2004. Doubt he had the sight back then or was even traveling to Rio, but hey I could be wrong.
RR
Actually it went as high as 3.85 to near 4 real to the dollar sometime between 2002 and 2004
Poucolouco
05-05-09, 04:20
January, 2004. Doubt he had the sight back then or was even traveling to Rio, but hey I could be wrong.
RR
I think it was a typo and Ryjerrob meant R$2.35 on January 20, 2009.
I think it was a typo and he meant R$2.35 on January 20, 2009.
No typo, RonnyRon is right.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDBRL=X&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Poucolouco
05-05-09, 13:55
No typo, RonnyRon is right.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDBRL=X&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
The conversation was actually in response to Ryjerrob's post, RE: 3.35 in Jan. I guess the antecedent was not clear.
That sucks, but back when it was around 3.35 in Jan., lick the practical mongerer that I am, I exchanged a few thousand for future trips..............
ryjer
The conversation was actually in response to Ryjerrob's post, RE: 3.35 in Jan. I guess the antecedent was not clear.
Sorry about that, it was a typo. Today at the airport it was 2.03.
Wantafanta
05-06-09, 02:09
Are there any ATM's in Copacabana that tell you the exchange rate before you extract money?
Just trying to decide if I should bring more cash or deposit it into my checking.
Poucolouco
05-06-09, 15:36
Are there any ATM's in Copacabana that tell you the exchange rate before you extract money?
Just trying to decide if I should bring more cash or deposit it into my checking.
I'm not aware of ATM's that quote exchange rates but your decision should be easy. The ATM exchange will always be a more favorable rate than exchanging currency at a cambio.
Are there any ATM's in Copacabana that tell you the exchange rate before you extract money?
Just trying to decide if I should bring more cash or deposit it into my checking.
The ATMs give a good rate and it's automated. The annoying charge is the withdrawal charge, especially with low limits on how much you can take out. So bringing a lot of cash and haggling at a cambio is another option.
To get the money out of your account back home should be easy enough but can also be a pain as you have to deal with Brasilian banks, which are a system unto themselves. Even if they have the same logo, they are financially separate (this gives the banks a get out of jail free card if the country goes bust, as happened in Argentina).
I prefer not to rely on a single card and I've only used this method (although many times) with credit cards rather than debit cards.
The deal is this: if a bank displays a Visa or Mastercard logo they are legally obliged to give you cash up to the maximum available on your account when you present a Visa or Mastercard card. This should only take a few minutes in theory but I always allow at least an hour. First they say they can't, so you maybe have to get heavy and talk legal obligation and how they can have their logo licence withdrawn if they refuse. Rather than taking my word for it, ask Visa/Mastercard to explain it to you before you leave home, then you will have the confidence to be insistent.
Have the international numbers of Visa/Mscard on your mobile before you leave home. You want the helpline and you also want the authorisation telephone number. Offer to call them while you are in the bank from your mobile (still with your home SIM). Other ruses they will throw include not having the forms or they can't get through. They will often try to send you to a different bank. You don't need the forms if it's a telephone authorisation and they are online anyway. Keep at it and don't budge. Don't lose your cool and always stay polite. Eventually, usually after going through several managers and waiting around ages, you get your money, even if it is a very large amount.
There's more complex ways of getting your money, but this is reliable if time-consuming.
Other things to do before you leave are ensure that Visa/Mscard know you are going to Brasil, otherwise they may put a security block on your card till they hear from you. And check your SIM is cleared as roaming.
Are there any ATM's in Copacabana that tell you the exchange rate before you extract money?
Just trying to decide if I should bring more cash or deposit it into my checking.
I have found that ATMs belonging to BANCO 24 Horas show the exchange rate and dollar value of the transaction in a confirmation screen. So you have the option of cancelling the transaction if you don't like the rate. I use them as often as possible.
Bring emergency cash regardless of how you plan to use your debit card, credit, or T-checks. A failure of the international communications system will knock out the ATM's access to foreign banks. A local power failure will do the same thing. I usually budget $200-$250 in US cash for each week of Brazil travel, it varies with the exchange rate.
As I recently discoverd the hard way. Advise your bank prior to departure as to where you are going, I have a Chase account which I have used for years while overseas with no problem until my recent trip in April in which I had the unfortunate event of discovering my bank placed a block on international withdrawels (fraud protection) after trying numerous banks for several days I finally went to a internet kiosk and called chase to find out what the hell was going on. After about 20 minutes of constant holding and transfering they removed the block and I was able to withdraw cash immediately. Yet in the meanwhile thank god for AMEX.
Member #1461
05-07-09, 11:26
You can expect the Dollar to continue falling against the real in the near future. with a very high degree of certainty.
about 2 weeks ago there was an article on uol.com in the economia section that really explains it very well. It seems that for the first time since the crisis began the foreign investors are returning to brasil, there is a very large influx of foreign cash into Bovespa. and as anyone who took economics 101 in university, when foreign money wants to buy your local money there is more demand then supply for you local currency (Real) and as a result it gets stronger.
This is partly due to a series of VERY favourable reports and articles in bussiness oriented newspapers recently around the world that Brasil is being hit far less by this world-wide economic crisis then most other countries, and that by 2020 (as noted by chief economist of Goldman-Sachs) Brasil's economy combined with those of Russia India and China (called BRIC countries) will surpass all of the other western world economies combined (yes all of europe america japan etc).
This has led many foreign investors to return to invest in Brasil as the situation in their own home countries is unclear.
So, more and more foreigners will be investing more and more money into Brasil in the near future. so you can be sure the Dollar will get weaker and weaker against the Real.
On a personal note, the very same day it was anounced that foreign investment in Brasil is for the first time growing, since the crisis began, I immidiately converted all my money into Real. I was waiting during the last months to see how high it will go, remembering that in 2003 it went as high as 3.5 and hoping it will get somewhere close again this time.But it didnt, and in retrospective I wish I had converted all my money when it was about 2.5 (the highest exchange rate during the curent crisis) but I didnt as the article came when the rate was 2.2
If anyone else wishes to exchange large amounts of your gringo currency into real I SERIOUSLY suggest you dont wait for it to rise from the 2.1 it is now again to 2.5 because it wont. you will just be eating you heart later as it will go way down to pre-crisis level in a few months.
Again, its because of supply and demand, and brasil is on the high compared to the western world. So the investors there are rushing to invest here.
Good luck everyone.
Azn Safado
05-08-09, 16:59
I have a couple of days left on my trip and I just exchanged an additional $500 in reserve cash at the rate of 2.13. I'll use this money on my next trip in September. I guess I'll check this post again in September to see if it was a wise decision to lock in at 2.13. My guess is the rate will be below 1.88 by then.
SlimHoleDrill
05-08-09, 22:47
...
Bring emergency cash regardless of how you plan to use your debit card, credit, or T-checks. A failure of the international communications system will knock out the ATM's access to foreign banks. A local power failure will do the same thing. I usually budget $200-$250 in US cash for each week of Brazil travel, it varies with the exchange rate.
Good advice. ATMs are somewhat unreliable. Sometimes, like on the weekends, they also run out of cash. In one HSBC on a recent long weekend, the only machine with cash was one that only dispensed $R2 notes! So the max was $R40. That won't get you very far.
JohnnyBraz
05-08-09, 23:31
Good advice. ATMs are somewhat unreliable. Sometimes, like on the weekends, they also run out of cash. In one HSBC on a recent long weekend, the only machine with cash was one that only dispensed $R2 notes! So the max was $R40. That won't get you very far.half and half is the best mix.. if you spend $7000r per week, then you need $3500r in cash (or the equivilant in us/euro etc.) and $3500r from atm's.
Can anyone suggest a major service in the USA For exchanging dollars into Reals?
(Bank of America tells me that they are not passing along a commission to their customers, but the rate they use is still a far cry from what I see on yahoo. So I'm shopping around for the best rates.)
You can expect the Dollar to continue falling against the real in the near future. with a very high degree of certainty. ...
Good luck everyone.
I wrote a post a few months back arguing the exact opposite. The information I heard was that there was a flight to safety around the world and the US dollar was the safest bet around. I agree that Brazil is weathering the crisis better than many other countrires because their banks had not invested in the US trash-back bonds that European banks had bought.
BUT, a relatively healthy financial system does not turn around an economy. You still need demand for the products you produce. That is where Brazil's weakness lies. Its economy is still dominated by natural resources and its customers are not yet growing rapidly. There will not be a healthy demand for iron, and other commodities until mid-to-late 2010. China's economy has been stimulated and that impact of that stimulus will be mostly felt next year, not this year. The US economy is not stagnant. It is also likely to start growing next year when this year's stimulus efforts start to have serious impacts.
A second weakness is Brazil's poor educational system. It does not have the human capital to grow robustly. That will always limit its econoomy and therefore the value of its currency. I haven't even mentioned its corruption and government bureacracy.
So, NO! I disagree that the US dollar will fall far against the real for very long.
JohnnyBraz
05-09-09, 03:45
Henrique Meirelles, the president of the Brazilian Central Bank said that Brazil is leaving the international financial crisis "in a more favorable situation than most countries, " mainly due to the distancing from the epicenter of the crisis, which began in the United States, with immediate impact in Europe and Japan.
In a videoconference at the National Confederation of Industries (CNI), when he spoke to businessmen from the Federation of Industries of the State of Rio Grande do Sul (Fiergs), Meirelles pointed out that "Brazil is in a recovery trajectory, " although at a lower level than prior to the crisis, which erupted in September last year with the bankruptcy of North American bank Lehman Brothers.
Contrary to the manifestation of euphoria, the president of the Central Bank alerted that the signaling of recovery in some sectors of the economy, like the concession of credit and the return to foreign investment, still happens slowly and gradually. "We should not confuse this with the end of the crisis. We know that it is not like that, and we still have a lot of space ahead, " said Meirelles.
"But there is no doubt that Brazil is also being seen abroad as one of the preferred sites for new investment, " he concluded. Apart from the return of foreign funds to the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa), Meirelles stated that there are negotiations with great foreign investment in national companies and this causes him to believe that the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) this year should be around US$ 25 billion.
Meirelles also commented that despite the statement made by the president of the Central Bank of the United States, Ben Bernanke, that the North American economy "is still going to drop a little more, before returning to growth, " the stock markets of different countries, including the United States, are anticipating the process of recovery.
As examples, Bovespa rallied 6. 59% last Monday, May 4, accompanying stock markets worldwide. On Tuesday, the Stock market rose 0. 53%, despite many investors having made use of the rise for profit taking, and Wednesday it rose another 1. 64%.
At the same time, the dollar weakened against the Brazilian real over the last few days, with US$ 1 being sold for 2. 12 Brazilian reais, causing the Central Bank of Brazil to increase its purchases on the exchange market.
The organization bought US$ 3. 412 billion to contain the devaluation of the North American currency and not stunt Brazilian exports. For this, the BC promoted inverted swap auctions, which it had not done since September 2008.
Anba
I wrote a post a few months back arguing the exact opposite. The information I heard was that there was a flight to safety around the world and the US dollar was the safest bet around. I agree that Brazil is weathering the crisis better than many other countrires because their banks had not invested in the US trash-back bonds that European banks had bought.
BUT, a relatively healthy financial system does not turn around an economy. You still need demand for the products you produce. That is where Brazil's weakness lies. Its economy is still dominated by natural resources and its customers are not yet growing rapidly. There will not be a healthy demand for iron, and other commodities until mid-to-late 2010. China's economy has been stimulated and that impact of that stimulus will be mostly felt next year, not this year. The US economy is not stagnant. It is also likely to start growing next year when this year's stimulus efforts start to have serious impacts.
A second weakness is Brazil's poor educational system. It does not have the human capital to grow robustly. That will always limit its econoomy and therefore the value of its currency. I haven't even mentioned its corruption and government bureacracy.
So, NO! I disagree that the US dollar will fall far against the real for very long.
Correct on your guestimation. I hope you are right on, for my pockets sake!
Member #1461
05-09-09, 10:24
While I do agree with part of your analysis on the problems facing brasil, I disagree with your conclusion.
The very fact that Bovespa has rised from 35k to 51k and the Dollar:Real rate has dropped from 2.5 to 2.07 (as of 9/5) during just the last 2 months shows that foreign investors are seeing brasil as a good investment opportunity, and are returning in growing numbers to brasil.
You cant argue with the numbers. it is what it is.
In fact brasil's currency has actually recovered a full half of all the value lost since the crisis began (the dollar:real exchance was at 1.55 in september before the crisis began and rose to 2.5 at its highest point, and now it is at 2.07. thats half way, in only 2 months)
And even before the crisis began, the fact that the real was getting stronger every month and rose from a rediculously weak rate of 3.5:1 in 2004 to 1.55:1 in 2008 shows that investers around the world had faith in brasil's ecnonomy and future despite the problems it has with education and commodities. We are now seeing a re-affirment of that belief as investment is returning to brasil.
Dont take my word for it, just read what top economists of the world are saying about brasil, there was a series of very positive articles in many of the bussiness journals around the world about brasil, during the last 2-3 months, how the crisis has a significantly lesser impact of brasil and how it is expected to be a major economic power in 2020 (thats just 11 years from now).
Bottom line, while there are factors to both sides, arguing that brasil's economy and currency will get stronger or weaker, the numbers speak for themselves, and no one can argue that invesment in brasil is growing again, and that the real has wiped half of its loses going from 2.5 to 2.07 in a mere 2 months. and its continuing to get stronger every day.
You just cant argue with the numbers. it is what it is.
I would go so far as to say that imho we will see the real at 1.7-1.8 in 2-3 months.
EDITOR'S NOTE: I would suggest that the author or another Forum Member consider posting a link to this report in the Reports of Distinction thread. Please Click Here (http://www.internationalsexguide.info/forum/announcement-reportsofdistinction.php?) for more information.
Exec Talent
05-12-09, 00:07
I spend a lot of time in Brazil. One thing I have noticed is because the recession that hit the US and other countries has not had that much impact on the Brazilian economy, prices are starting to creep higher. O Globo just raised the Sunday paper from R$3.50 to R$4.00. Food prices vary greatly, but I have noticed some significant increases lately.
What worries me is that when inflation hits the US, it WILL have an impact on Brazil. I am still trying to get my mind around all the implications (especially when governments intervene and skew normal market behaviors) but I am working on it.
I have decided to stop trying to figure out what will happen to the dollar vs Real trends. Its difficult enough to figure this freaken thing out. But what really pisses me off is the X-Factor.......Brasilian banks.
The banking system is the wildcard in this South American country. These guys manipulate the numbers and values to squeeze as much money out of an upward or lower trend. A couple of brasilian friends within the bamking buss. have shared this opinion with me as well.
I exchanged a few hundred dollars and got R$2.12 at a place in Centro. Ave Rio Banco one block north of Presidente Vargas. The place is right on the corner, you can't miss it. The office is actually upstairs.
ryjer
The Brazilian gov't should take note with Japan's currency policy.
A stronger Real will hurt them than help them in int'l trade market balancing.
Target between 2.2 and 2.5 is good policy for Brazil imho.
I'm not to clever with all the currency thing but I have
noticed that the real is going down against the GBP but the
GBP is getting a better deal against the US$.
Should I exchange my pounds into dollars here and bring them to
exhange in rio. Or should I just use my debit card and withdrawl
reals and hope the rate doesn't drop anymore?
Thanks for any advice
Poucolouco
05-12-09, 15:50
05-11-09 at 23:28 #1166 -- I exchanged a few hundred dollars and got R$2.12 at a place in Centro. Ave Rio Banco one block north of Presidente Vargas. The place is right on the corner, you can't miss it. The office is actually upstairs.
ryjer
05-04-09 at 18:52 #1141 -- It Pays to Play -- That sucks, but back when it was around 3.35 in Jan., lick the practical mongerer that I am, I exchanged a few thousand for future trips ryjer
Ryjer, You should be selling Reais, not buying. :)
I exchanged a few hundred dollars and got R$2.12 at a place in Centro. Ave Rio Banco one block north of Presidente Vargas. The place is right on the corner, you can't miss it. The office is actually upstairs.
ryjerThat's about. 12 more than I got from BofA yesterday and. 8 more than TravelEx would have shipped to me.
So it would seem it's still true to buy in country, even if your currency is the US dollar!
But I'm persuaded by Member #1461 and the fact that China is using its whopping stimulus package to buy more Brazilian raw materials: in the short term, the Real will continue to rise against the dollar.
And likely over. 12 Reals.
I'm not to clever with all the currency thing but I have
noticed that the real is going down against the GBP but the
GBP is getting a better deal against the US$.
Should I exchange my pounds into dollars here and bring them to
exhange in rio. Or should I just use my debit card and withdrawl
reals and hope the rate doesn't drop anymore?
Thanks for any advice
IMHO-With the reals rising against the dollar and the pound being king. Using your debit card is the best way to go.
RR
I will be there in about 3 weeks, and I am getting frustrated and angry with this downward trend of the dollar. I just hope it stays above the 2r mark.
Jamaicanceo
05-13-09, 22:27
I will be there in about 3 weeks, and I am getting frustrated and angry with this downward trend of the dollar. I just hope it stays above the 2r mark.I will be there May 19, and I am not happy with the dollar. It's being punked out by the world currencies. The US should quit bailing out these other markets and take care of its own issues!
I will be there May 19, and I am not happy with the dollar. It's being punked out by the world currencies. The US should quit bailing out these other markets and take care of its own issues!I'm not sure what you mean by "punked-out," but, according to the WSJ, the dollar has held up against most currency.
Note that there are more green numbers than red ones:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-worlddollar.html?mod=mdc_curr_pglnk
And it's kicked Jamaican butt across the floor.
Jamaicanceo
05-14-09, 21:18
I'm not sure what you mean by "punked-out," but, according to the WSJ, the dollar has held up against most currency.
Note that there are more green numbers than red ones:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-worlddollar.html?mod=mdc_curr_pglnk
And it's kicked Jamaican butt across the floor.I am not worried about other currencies right now. We are talking Real vs Dollar. I am in the correct forum, right?
What info is needed by Brazilian banks if I wanted to wire money to someone there? My bank said something about a swift # and aba # which I don't know how to ask in portuguese about.
Pipe Layer99
05-14-09, 23:31
If I may, I believe what Jamaicanceo was referring to is the dollar is losing ground in Brazil. Weeks ago we could get R$2.25 to $1 US dollar. Now the rate is down to R$2 to $1.
I'm not sure what you mean by "punked-out," but, according to the WSJ, the dollar has held up against most currency.
Note that there are more green numbers than red ones:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-worlddollar.html?mod=mdc_curr_pglnk
And it's kicked Jamaican butt across the floor.
Jamaicanceo
05-15-09, 05:09
If I may, I believe what Jamaicanceo was referring to is the dollar is losing ground in Brazil. Weeks ago we could get R$2.25 to $1 US dollar. Now the rate is down to R$2 to $1.Thank you Pipe. I think English is not his primary language to understand the reference I was making.
Poucolouco
05-15-09, 15:21
What info is needed by Brazilian banks if I wanted to wire money to someone there? My bank said something about a swift # and aba # which I don't know how to ask in portuguese about.
SWIFT is The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. This code identifies participating banks for money transfers. ABA is American Bankers' Association National Numeric System, also called the bank routing number. It identifies your bank and is the leftmost 9 digits at the bottom of your personal checks.
The Brasilian bank will require the AGENCIA and ACCOUNT number of the beneficiary as well as the beneficiary bank name and address. You will also need the name and address of the beneficiary. You will be asked to state the PURPOSE of the money transfer. I suggest you have the beneficiary discuss this with their bank to resolve any difficulties before you send the transfer. Brasilian banks can be very bureaucratic and the can tie up your money for a long time if you don’t do everything as they require. This will vary from bank to bank.
While there is no legal limit on the amount of money being transferred, it is easier to transfer amounts less than US$10,000 per day because the transaction is monitored by the Central Bank to screen against money laundering and illegal substance purchases. Larger amounts may result in a lot of questions to be answered by the beneficiary and delays in receiving the money.
What info is needed by Brazilian banks if I wanted to wire money to someone there? My bank said something about a swift # and aba # which I don't know how to ask in portuguese about.The SWIFT # and ABA routing # are needed by the sending bank, not the receiving bank. That is why your (US? ) bank is asking about them.
Most banks publish their various codes and routing numbers on their websites. Go to the website of the bank to which you are sending the money. Navigate it until you get to the page that contains these codes. You will probably need the address or the neighborhood location of the specific branch at which the account is 'kept' because routing numbers refer to specific branches of banks.
I have done this and found that the Brazilian bank I dealt with was not thorough with its codes. The SWIFT number of the branch I was sending the money to was not listed and the transfer was delayed as a result. This was a few years ago. I hope you have better luck with your bank.
P.S. You don't need much Portuguese to ask for these codes as international banking is conducted in English. All Brazilians working in the international section of a bank are familar with the SWIFT number and pronounce it as 'swiftee'.
What info is needed by Brazilian banks if I wanted to wire money to someone there? My bank said something about a swift # and aba # which I don't know how to ask in portuguese about.Most bank personnel at a local Brazilian bank branch won't know what you need if you ask for an ABA number since it's a US number, as mentioned by PoucoLouco. But they should be able to give you the SWIFT number without a problem.
Sadly, the opposite happens with some smaller US banks. They won't know what you're talking about if you tell them you want to make a transfer and have the recipient bank's SWIFT number, since they generally just use ABA. In fact my US bank didn't have a screen for me to do SWIFT transfers over the internet until recently, all they had was a screen for ABA transfers.
I've done transfers to a few brazilian banks and the smoothest experience seems to be with HSBC. HSBC Brazil actually publishes the transfer info for you from several currencies here:
http://www.hsbc.com.br/1/2/portal/pt/para-sua-empresa/comercio-exterior/bancos-correspondentes
Thanks for all the replies.
Now I just need to figure out if I want to send it.
Long story.
I will be there May 19, and I am not happy with the dollar. It's being punked out by the world currencies. The US should quit bailing out these other markets and take care of its own issues!
If I may, I believe what Jamaicanceo was referring to is the dollar is losing ground in Brazil. Weeks ago we could get R$2.25 to $1 US dollar. Now the rate is down to R$2 to $1.If I may, I see nothing Jamaicanceo's post that resembles substance.
But I do see a rant against the US government, thus insulting my nation's best intention to once again bail-out world markets.
At least I provided a link to the WSJ page showing the US Dollar against the world currencies. Again,
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-worlddollar.html?mod=mdc_curr_pglnk
But instead of dropping it when the facts contradict him, he's allowed to insult my command of English?:
Thank you Pipe. I think English is not his primary language to understand the reference I was making.
Why do you (and the moderator) mollycoddle him, for his is exactly the sort of post that adds nothing to the thread?
With all due respect, the "the number is the number". Incidentally, Member #1461 reminds me of a real estate agent pitching South Florida real estates to me back in early 2006. The gentle agent told me, "numbers don't lie" as during that time, S. FL. real estate had been growing at double digits for over 10 yrs. Everybody was making money and you don't need money to make money. The gentleman was telling me time to buy in as this double digit growth will continue.."number is the number..." he said. At that time, I accorded the gentle salesman a lot of respect but I chose not to buy. Not that I am smart or having some special economic insight, i just don't "feel" the market is there to continue to grow. In hindsight, my blind luck won, total blind luck.
As to #1461's reference to reputable economists. Again, my utmost respect due to the member. Indeed, many reputable economists believe Brasil is a great place to invest and the long term prospect is great. However, we must also be extremely cautious to remember almost no economist (except a tiny handful) saw this financial market meltdown coming. I am not talking about your average economists, I am referring to Nobel, Havard, Yale economists who failed to see it coming. Bernake himself admitted that he did not see it coming, so was Greenspan. Clinton admitted that, so did Obama. In fact, most did not even know the cause behind this meltdown until 18 months after the event and judging from what we read in the popular media, many economists still not sure. Bear in mind that this is not the first time these economists failed to see what is coming. From 1980-2009 yrs, the economists consistently failed to see it coming, not once, not twice but three times. The 1985 October Market Crash, nobody saw it coming (some said due to program trading), the BCCI Meltdown (due to bank/bank derivative and the prelude to the '09 meltdown) and finally this one. According to one Harvard economist, the chance of a single "rare event" like this one is 1 in 10,000,000 years. Failure of three times in a roll in 20 yrs, the economists said it would be like one in one billion years. So, if you believe in these economists, we will be free of any more meltdown or recession for the next one billion years :) since the rarest of the rare event already occurred!! :).
What I am saying is, "I don't know" and nobody know, including the "smart guys" and the "inside guys". Brasil may very well turned out to be a highly profitable place to invest. Then, my respect to all who were lucky to place the bet. But then, the flip side of the trade can be very detrimental to one's mental and physical health.
However, we must also be extremely cautious to remember almost no economist (except a tiny handful) saw this financial market meltdown coming. I am not talking about your average economists, I am referring to Nobel, Havard, Yale economists who failed to see it coming. Bernake himself admitted that he did not see it coming, so was Greenspan. Clinton admitted that, so did Obama. In fact, most did not even know the cause behind this meltdown until 18 months after the event and judging from what we read in the popular media, many economists still not sure.
Johan,
A agree with the point you are making. I only want to correct a misconception you are promalgating.
Many economists DID in fact foresee the 2008 meltdown. These were the economists who worked in the financial industry for investment banks, commercial banks, the bond rating agencies, and hedge funds. They were NOT academic economists (the ones you cited)!
The problem was that these economists were ORDERED to shut up! Their analysis was buried. Their bosses were making too much money on the scams for them to let the cat out of the bag by warning that the game might soon be over. A pyrmid scheme is BASED on the illusion of perpetual profits and these bosses had to maintan that illusion, even while their own subordinates were seeing that the pyrmaid was buillt on soft sand and was collapsing.
I read in the Economist and the WSJ last year that the reason why Goldman Sachs and one or two other large investmebnt banks didn't collapse like Bear Sterns and Lehman Brother was that the senior partners saw the collapse coming but didn't warn anyone, not even their own employees. They simply took short positions in financial stocks, even in the same stocks that their own employees were taking long positions. When it all went south, they made a mint and were able to cover the losses their employees caused in their long positions.
My point is that the economists with the biggest mouths, even if they are impecably credentialed, will be spouting nonsense if their ears are not wide open and close to the ground.
These people dont know shit. wall street brokers dont know shit.remember, if they knew anything, they would be millionaires and wouldnt need your money. there is this idiot name joe battapaglia who has been on cnbc since 1994 when i started watching the market. he is always wrong with his advice. If this guy knew anything, he would have put all his money in dell, apple or microsoft and would be retired by now. people are always coming at me with some kind of scam. I have a stupid kid where i live, that tells me i should invest with him, and his friend, because he can double my money in 2 months. I told him if he could double my money in 2 months, he should use his own money. you would be a millionaire in a year. If you start with 20k and double it 6x, you will have a million dollars.This was before the housing market crashed and he had money to take out.remember, dont believe anything anyone says. its amazing how many people fall for scams. I saw on espn OTL that holyfield said if he had to choose between making a house payment or donating 10% to creflo dollar, he would give it to dollar.He said when he netted 35 million, he gave dollar 3.5 million.OUCH!! I guess we know why he lost his home.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/18/sheila-bair-brooksley-bor_n_204635.html
BOSTON — Two U.S. federal regulators who sounded early warnings on the financial crisis and a Liberian peace activist who helped end that nation's civil war were honored for their efforts Monday at the John F. Kennedy Library in Boston.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. chairwoman Sheila Bair, former chairwoman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Brooksley Born,...Now can we get back to what foreign currencies will buy in Brazil? Particularly in terms pussy!
A lot of people are not paying attention to whats going on in Brazil with respect to its growing influence, trade, and its growing economy.
Recently China surpass the U.S as Brazil's largest trading partner.
Brazil is expected to build its first nucluear powered sub in 12 years
http://www.defpro.com/news/details/7494/
http://en.rian.ru/world/20090518/155036599.html
Recently Brazil stop trading with Argentina in U.S dollars. Now Brazil's Lula is pushing China not to use U.S dollars in trade with them. (Its funny how these stories nevr hit the front page or is buried in the back of the papers).
"We don't need dollars," Silva was quoted as saying in the transcript posted on Caijing's Web site. "It's crazy that the dollar is the reference, and that you give a single country the power to print that currency."
http://us.mg2.mail.yahoo.com/dc/launch?.gx=0&.rand=ck8sqsma49ug4
Brazil is not letting is Real rise too fast as they also suprise the markets a few weeks ago with a reverse currency swap.
Poucolouco
05-19-09, 03:30
A lot of people are not paying attention to whats going on in Brazil with respect to its growing influence, trade, and its growing economy.
Recently China surpass the U.S as Brazil's largest trading partner.
Brazil is expected to build its first nucluear powered sub in 12 years
http://www.defpro.com/news/details/7494/
http://en.rian.ru/world/20090518/155036599.html
Recently Brazil stop trading with Argentina in U.S dollars. Now Brazil's Lula is pushing China not to use U.S dollars in trade with them. (Its funny how these stories nevr hit the front page or is buried in the back of the papers).
"We don't need dollars," Silva was quoted as saying in the transcript posted on Caijing's Web site. "It's crazy that the dollar is the reference, and that you give a single country the power to print that currency."
http://us.mg2.mail.yahoo.com/dc/launch?.gx=0&.rand=ck8sqsma49ug4
Brazil is not letting is Real rise too fast as they also suprise the markets a few weeks ago with a reverse currency swap.
It is understandable that Lula would specifically reference dollars in a contract with China. The Chinese are swimming in dollars. Dollars are like monopoly money to China. On the other hand dollars are still the universal currency of trade, not the Yuan. What currency does Lula propose for trade? Is the Euro more stable? Socialists often fall into the trap of shunning currency to barter commodities for trade. This is a dead-ender because not all commodities can be bartered. Markets can not be cleared with a barter system. Eventually someone ends up with a boat load of beads and trinkets. Btw, your third link doesn't work because it is a private e-mail address.
SavePros321
05-19-09, 15:17
Just a Brazil forum Lurker. I think Madd Love meant to post this:
Brazil and China eye plan to axe dollar
By Jonathan Wheatley in São Paulo
Published: May 18 2009 18:24 | Last updated: May 18 2009 23:31
Brazil and China will work towards using their own currencies in trade transactions rather than the US dollar, according to Brazil’s central bank and aides to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president. Mr Lula da Silva, who is visiting Beijing this week, and Hu Jintao, China’s president, first discussed the idea of replacing the dollar with the renminbi and the real as trade currencies when they met at the G20 summit in London last month...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/996b1af8-43ce-11de-a9be-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
Just a Brazil forum Lurker. I think Poucolouco meant to post this:
Brazil and China eye plan to axe dollar
By Jonathan Wheatley in São Paulo
Published: May 18 2009 18:24 | Last updated: May 18 2009 23:31
Brazil and China will work towards using their own currencies in trade transactions rather than the US dollar, according to Brazil’s central bank and aides to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president. Mr Lula da Silva, who is visiting Beijing this week, and Hu Jintao, China’s president, first discussed the idea of replacing the dollar with the renminbi and the real as trade currencies when they met at the G20 summit in London last month...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/996b1af8-43ce-11de-a9be-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1I do not know much about economics maybe someone here can explain the following. China as of today has a big amount of USA currency in it's possession. Would it hurt their economy to just hold that money and not circulate it into the world economy? And what would happen if USA, Canada and Central America change their currency to the so call Amero, which is a rumor that can become true, look at Europe. With the euro.
A lot of people are not paying attention to whats going on in Brazil with respect to its growing influence, trade, and its growing economy.
Recently China surpass the U.S as Brazil's largest trading partner.
Recently Brazil stop trading with Argentina in U.S dollars. Now Brazil's Lula is pushing China not to use U.S dollars in trade with them. (Its funny how these stories nevr hit the front page or is buried in the back of the papers).
"We don't need dollars," Silva was quoted as saying in the transcript posted on Caijing's Web site. "It's crazy that the dollar is the reference, and that you give a single country the power to print that currency."
I think Lula is in China RIGHT NOW discussing these things with them. I read yesterday that Lula was on a 3 day visit to China to discuss trade issues.
Wanderer1000
05-19-09, 22:52
More deep thoughts.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5339435/Asia-will-author-its-own-destruction-if-it-triggers-a-crisis-over-US-bonds.html
Caroline Kennedy honored the economists who "predicted" the crisis.
Again, this is another liberal spin. Note that this was a woman who was honored. The woman also worked with a lot of black women in Liberia... totally Political Correct stuff.
Nonetheless, the recipient of this award was said to "predict" the crisis because she "warned" about the "sub prime". Wrong. This financial meltdown is NOT due to sub prime as sub prime in totality only is about 10% of all outstanding mortgages. 10% of bad loans will not cause the collapse of the world's economy.
What caused this collapse is debt based derivatives (little to do with mortgages), from interest swap, swaption, credit default swap, hedges....... due to the proliferation of these derivatives, we have too much money in the system. The end result is asset inflation. Too much money chasing too few assets thus asset pricing getting to be unrealistically inflated, aka asset bubble. By numbers, in '06, whereas U.S. has about $9.4trillion in the system, securitized debts (sub prime loans is part of this) is about $40 trillions. however, debt based derivatives is 2.5x the size of this at $102 trillion. it is the derivatives that caused this meltdown.
So, this woman who won this Kennedy award had no clue but in this Obama regime, you don't need to have a clue to win. You just need to have the right skin tone and Political Correct. LOL.
Nonetheless, the recipient of this award was said to "predict" the crisis because she "warned" about the "sub prime". Wrong. This financial meltdown is NOT due to sub prime as sub prime in totality only is about 10% of all outstanding mortgages. 10% of bad loans will not cause the collapse of the world's economy.
What caused this collapse is debt based derivatives (little to do with mortgages), from interest swap, swaption, credit default swap, hedges....... due to the proliferation of these derivatives, we have too much money in the system. The end result is asset inflation. Too much money chasing too few assets thus asset pricing getting to be unrealistically inflated, aka asset bubble. By numbers, in '06, whereas U.S. has about $9.4trillion in the system, securitized debts (sub prime loans is part of this) is about $40 trillions. however, debt based derivatives is 2.5x the size of this at $102 trillion. it is the derivatives that caused this meltdown.
Johan,
Before I call you some unpleasant names that have negative conotations regarding your intelligence and analytical ability, I would like you to explain what derivatives are and give an example of one.
I followed the financial crisis pretty closely for the past year and the housing crisis before that. All the mainstream media reported that the cause of the financial crisis was the rapid decline in market value of bonds that were backed by sub-prime mortgages (and later prime mortgages). The decline in value came about when the home owners with these mortgages were unable to sell their homes, or re-finance their mortgages, or make the mortgage payments when the interest rates adjusted upward. They were unable to sell their homes or refinance because home prices had fallen and left them with too little equity to pay off their mortgages in a sale or qualify for refinancing.
Derivatives had nothing to do with the crisis. Swaps and hedges are NOT derivatives. (They are the names of transactions, not financial instruments. A derivative a form of financial instrument. You need to define it more precisely.)
The Watcher
05-20-09, 01:17
Swaps and hedges are NOT derivatives. (They are the names of transactions, not financial instruments. A derivative a form of financial instrument. You need to define it more precisely.)
I respectfully disagree.
The following is from wikipedia
( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derivative_(finance)):
"Derivatives are financial contracts, or financial instruments, whose values are derived from the value of something else (known as the underlying). The underlying value on which a derivative is based can be an asset (e.g., commodities, equities (stocks), residential mortgages, commercial real estate, loans, bonds), an index (e.g., interest rates, exchange rates, stock market indices, consumer price index (CPI) — see inflation derivatives), weather conditions, or other items. Credit derivatives are based on loans, bonds or other forms of credit.
The main types of derivatives are forwards, futures, options, and swaps."
This is from investopedia (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/derivative.asp):
"Derivative
What Does Derivative Mean?
A security whose price is dependent upon or derived from one or more underlying assets. The derivative itself is merely a contract between two or more parties. Its value is determined by fluctuations in the underlying asset. The most common underlying assets include stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates and market indexes. Most derivatives are characterized by high leverage.
Investopedia explains Derivative
Futures contracts, forward contracts, options and swaps are the most common types of derivatives. Derivatives are contracts and can be used as an underlying asset. There are even derivatives based on weather data, such as the amount of rain or the number of sunny days in a particular region.
Derivatives are generally used as an instrument to hedge risk, but can also be used for speculative purposes. For example, a European investor purchasing shares of an American company off of an American exchange (using U.S. dollars to do so) would be exposed to exchange-rate risk while holding that stock. To hedge this risk, the investor could purchase currency futures to lock in a specified exchange rate for the future stock sale and currency conversion back into Euros."
Here is another article about Brazil and China trying to axe the dollar.
(China, Brazil Research Conducting Trade in Yuan, Real
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=amhplsMVltY8
(Brazil’s Currency Advances to 7-Month High on Signs of Recovery)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a5zhLfZZU3sQ
What caused this collapse is...I must disagree. The root cause of the US economic woes is the collapse of an $8 trillion bubble in your housing market, with a knock-on effect of a loss of $12 trillion in stock. The reason the effects were so widespread was due to the
Just read Dean Baker, his blog is called Beat The Press - just Google for it. He's a liberal, you know, and the first (and about the only) guy to have pointed out the housing bubble back in August 2002.
i do not know much about economics maybe someone here can explain the following. china as of today has a big amount of usa currency in it's possession. would it hurt their economy to just hold that money and not circulate it into the world economy? and what would happen if usa, canada and central america change their currency to the so call amero, which is a rumor that can become true, look at europe. with the euro.the chinese have been buying up shit loads of dollar foreign exchange reserves, in the form of us government debt, since this keeps the value of the dollar up against the yuan. the chinese buying up lots of dollars means that demand for dollars is high, which in turn means that the value of the dollar is high. this in turn means that chinese exports are more attractive to the american market, since the dollar is strong whilst the yuan is relatively weak. the chinese know they will take a [CodeWord125] (http://isgprohibitedwords.info?CodeWord=CodeWord125) on these exchange reserves when the dollar falls, but they've been happy to take open themselves up for this beating because their priority has been maintaining their export markets and trade surplus.
read dean baker's blog everyday to follow this sort of stuff. he writes in plain english, and explains everything so that even an economic layman should be able to understand. if you don't understand something he wrote, just leave him a comment. he or someone else will usually answer it.
Albert Punter
05-20-09, 02:40
A few weeks ago I read an article in newspapers talking about Argentina and China dealing in Yuan.
Here some internet references
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2009-03/30/content_7630532.htm
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-argentina-settle-trade-yuan-xinhua
Here is another article about Brazil and China trying to axe the dollar.
(China, Brazil Research Conducting Trade in Yuan, Real
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=amhplsMVltY8
(Brazil’s Currency Advances to 7-Month High on Signs of Recovery)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a5zhLfZZU3sQ
Would it hurt their economy to just hold that money and not circulate it into the world economy?The Chinese probably could get a better return on their exchange reserves, rather than just holding them as they have done - but getting a higher return on their exchange reserves is not what they are after. The Chinese foreign exchange reserves largely consist of US government debt, i.e. dollars. The reason they have bought up and hoarded shit loads of US dollars is to keep the demand for dollars high. This keeps the value of the dollar up against the Yuan, and this makes Chinese exports attractive for American consumers. American consumers buying cheap, Chinese products enables the Chinese to run a large trade surplus. And it is this that they have been aiming for, that is they have been aiming for export-driven economic growth. As you can see, their strategy has worked very well indeed. Any losses the Chinese incur on their dollar holdings as the dollar falls is a secondary concern. The Chinese aren't stupid, they know what they're doing.
America is done. Obama thinks he can just print 2 trillion in one year and it won't have consequences. He is a finance idiot. Instead of going in there and cutting spending by a trillion or 2, he goes in and prints a trillion or two. Your first black president, will go down as the next dope president. He is bush on steroids. Can't we get someone qualified as president just once. You had bush in there because of his dad and you have obama in there because he is black. How about someone with a brain in there. Enjoy your black prez black people because he will be one and out.
These countries ought to learn from past mistakes when betting against the USD.
Member #1461
05-20-09, 15:31
We will continue to see the Dollar weakening against most of the world's currencies, and probably even more against the real.
It is really a simple question of supply and demand. Foreigners want to buy the Brasilian currency, the Real, and they want to invest in the Brasilian stock exchange (BOVESPA) and as a result the Real gets stronger (high demand) and the Dollar gets weaker.
It is a proccess which will continue for a good deal of time IMHO. I have been saying it on this thread since the rate was 2.2 that there is a massive influx of foreign traders interested in investing in Brasil, and that we will see the Dollar drop rapidly due to that.
The Brasilian government DOES NOT want the Dollar low, its bad for exporters in Brasil, and every day they set a point in the value of the Real:Dollar exchange that they start to Buy Dollars thus increasing its value artificially.
However the demand for the Real is so great that it has little effect.
Yesterday for example (19 of May) the point of purchase for Dollars was 2.057, and they invested 2 billion real to try to raise the level of the Dollar artificailly and they failed it ended much lower (2% drop).
I am trying to make the point that rightfully or wrongfully, Brasil is percieved by investers in the world as a good place to invest their money, fuled by favorable analysis by some of the world's top economists, this has created a sort of "buzz" around Brasil's market and its rising rapidly, while the Dollar is devaluating rapidly.
I am not making the judgement here if is really justified or not, whether the Brasilian economy is handling the crisis better then other world economies or not, I am just making the point that investers think that it is. And that is what makes the Dollar lose value fast against the Real.
I stil maintain my previous statement that we WILL see the Dollar:Real exchange rate at 1.7/1.8 in about 2 months time, and anyone who wishes to exchange Dollars into Real, especially large sums of money would do well to do it now while the rate is still 2:1. I gave the exact same advice about 2 weeks ago when the rate was 2.2:1 and I am giving it again now.
You WILL be sorry if you wait for the rate to go higher, it wont, you will just be eating your heart out when it reaches 1.8 or lower.
Soon as Obama starting pushing for Trillion dollar deficits, the world (China) started to worry about their Dollar reserves as safe investments. Foreign purchases of U.S bonds has been down. Now Obama is foolishly bankrupting he country in his first 4 months. Now Brazil is leading he charge of abandoning the dollar. I am sorry to say this but Obama has bankrupt the U.S. and the Brazilian president see this clearly. This is not rocket science. Soon as the Fed started monetizing U.S debt the dollar has been sliding.
America is done. Obama thinks he can just print 2 trillion in one year and it won't have consequences. He is a finance idiot. Instead of going in there and cutting spending by a trillion or 2, he goes in and prints a trillion or two. Your first black president, will go down as the next dope president. He is bush on steroids. Can't we get someone qualified as president just once. You had bush in there because of his dad and you have obama in there because he is black. How about someone with a brain in there. Enjoy your black prez black people because he will be one and out.
I totally agree with you. You can't print and spend your way to prosperity especially after a crises. Obama is acting like a idiot to destroy the currency at the expense of tax payers.
We have at or near zero interest rates.......Instead of raising rates & cut spending, Obama spends 2 trillion which he does not have.
You don't give an overweight/unhealthy person more more MC Donalds or Dominoes Pizza. Instead you go on a diet to get healthy again.
And if you are in a hole already you don't dig deeper. WHAT AN IDIOT.
I guess we know what to expect with these foolish policies in Washington.
Soon as Obama starting pushing for Trillion dollar deficits, the world (China) started to worry about their Dollar reserves as safe investments. Foreign purchases of U.S bonds has been down. Now Obama is foolishly bankrupting he country in his first 4 months. Now Brazil is leading he charge of abandoning the dollar. I am sorry to say this but Obama has bankrupt the U.S. and the Brazilian president see this clearly. This is not rocket science. Soon as the Fed started monetizing U.S debt the dollar has been sliding.
I'm sorry, you were saying what about Bush destroying our economy with two unwinnable wars and putting us in this disaster to begin with?
A few weeks ago I read an article in newspapers talking about Argentina and China dealing in Yuan.
Here some internet references
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2009-03/30/content_7630532.htm
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-argentina-settle-trade-yuan-xinhua
I think long term we have more to worry about with the dollar than the Real.
I'm sorry, you were saying what about Bush destroying our economy with two unwinnable wars and putting us in this disaster to begin with?
Does 2 wrongs make a right?
Should we continue with fiscal irresponsiblity?
This is about our country. Not American against American.
Guess who is going to pay for all this????
Member #4156
05-21-09, 03:20
I'm sorry, you were saying what about Bush destroying our economy with two unwinnable wars and putting us in this disaster to begin with?
Haha. They love to leave that out. But I digress...
JohnnyBraz
05-21-09, 03:29
Soon as Obama starting pushing for Trillion dollar deficits, the world (China) started to worry about their Dollar reserves as safe investments. Foreign purchases of U.S bonds has been down. Now Obama is foolishly bankrupting he country in his first 4 months. Now Brazil is leading he charge of abandoning the dollar. I am sorry to say this but Obama has bankrupt the U.S. and the Brazilian president see this clearly. This is not rocket science. Soon as the Fed started monetizing U.S debt the dollar has been sliding.The us dollar is slowly crashing, not due to demand for hard currency, but due to developing nations worry about dollar reserves as safe havens. Many currency's globaly are pegged against the us dollar, if most off these countries attempted to float there own currency, without being pegged against the us dollar, expect a massive drop in demand for us dollars. Which means lower rates for us dollars, maybe even 1:1 against the brazilian real in 5 years time. I expect 1. 7 to 1. 8r to the dollar by the end off this year, and back to 1. 5 by the end off 2010. 80% because off obama. 20% due to brazil being the 2nd fastest growing economy in the world. By the way I am not an american, I'm australian. And all a low us dollar means to me is less american tourists in Rio. I have nothing against americans, but less tourists in Rio. Better for me.
JohnnyBraz
05-21-09, 03:32
Is he so great that you don't mind paying double for your Rio holidays?
America is done. Obama thinks he can just print 2 trillion in one year and it won't have consequences. He is a finance idiot. Instead of going in there and cutting spending by a trillion or 2, he goes in and prints a trillion or two. Your first black president, will go down as the next dope president. He is bush on steroids. Can't we get someone qualified as president just once. You had bush in there because of his dad and you have obama in there because he is black. How about someone with a brain in there. Enjoy your black prez black people because he will be one and out.
Now here's a first... a brazilian giving economic lessons. I'll enjoy all of our US presidents in a strong or weak economy since its the most vibrant.
Lonzof
I am american. Now that obama is prez, I think I will change my handle to brokeman. America WAS the most vibrant. You know nothing about economics. You can't get out of a credit bubble, with even more borrowing and spending at a unprecedented level. You have to clean house, raise interest rates, so people will save, and cut goverment in half, so they can lower taxes for everyone. When bush came into office we had a 5 trillion dollar national debt. Thats all the debt we accumulated since the late 1700's, and now we have a 12 trillion dollar debt and obama has borrowed 2 trillion this year alone. He borrowed almost half of our total national debt from 2000 in ONE YEAR! We won't be able to pay the interest on this debt once rates go higher, which they will. I can't wait until all these rich black celebrities, that voted for obama, because he is black, and know nothing about the issues, lose all their savings, due to the collapse of their money. For the record, I hate john mcain also. I wanted Ron Paul for prez. In 4 years he will have a much better shot at winning. The only thing I like about Obama are his energy policies and stem cell policies but when it comes to finance he is bush 2.
Member #4156
05-21-09, 10:34
I am american. Now that obama is prez, I think I will change my handle to brokeman. America WAS the most vibrant. You know nothing about economics.
...and judging by your racists rants and support for a batshit crazy neo nazi loved Republican, you don't know shit about economics either. I hope you've enjoyed your teabagging by the way. :)
You will be singing a different tune when the exchange rate is 1 to 1 in a year. you can thank nomorebama for the most expensive pussy you will ever have in Brazil.
I am american. Now that obama is prez, I think I will change my handle to brokeman. America WAS the most vibrant. You know nothing about economics. You can't get out of a credit bubble, with even more borrowing and spending at a unprecedented level. You have to clean house, raise interest rates, so people will save, and cut goverment in half, so they can lower taxes for everyone. When bush came into office we had a 5 trillion dollar national debt. Thats all the debt we accumulated since the late 1700's, and now we have a 12 trillion dollar debt and obama has borrowed 2 trillion this year alone. He borrowed almost half of our total national debt from 2000 in ONE YEAR! We won't be able to pay the interest on this debt once rates go higher, which they will. I can't wait until all these rich black celebrities, that voted for obama, because he is black, and know nothing about the issues, lose all their savings, due to the collapse of their money. For the record, I hate john mcain also. I wanted Ron Paul for prez. In 4 years he will have a much better shot at winning. The only thing I like about Obama are his energy policies and stem cell policies but when it comes to finance he is bush 2.
Let's all thank Bush for the debt and the current mess that we're in. I'm quite sorry you feel so bad about yourself since the new President, OBAMA, does not look like you. Sounds like the "Angry WHITE MAN" complex. We can debate ECON any day, but I prefer to discuss how issues relative to this thread effect the price of bunda... not Klan comments made from protection from your computer screen. Everyone's tough in the closet. Maybe there weren't enough white celebrities to elect another white prez. The PEOPLE have spoken and I believe there were many more whites than blacks that voted for something better and different. History judges all ELECTED officials, not some idiot named brazilwoman.
Lonzof
I am american. Now that obama is prez, I think I will change my handle to brokeman. America WAS the most vibrant. You know nothing about economics. You can't get out of a credit bubble, with even more borrowing and spending at a unprecedented level. You have to clean house, raise interest rates, so people will save, and cut goverment in half, so they can lower taxes for everyone. When bush came into office we had a 5 trillion dollar national debt. Thats all the debt we accumulated since the late 1700's, and now we have a 12 trillion dollar debt and obama has borrowed 2 trillion this year alone. He borrowed almost half of our total national debt from 2000 in ONE YEAR! We won't be able to pay the interest on this debt once rates go higher, which they will. I can't wait until all these rich black celebrities, that voted for obama, because he is black, and know nothing about the issues, lose all their savings, due to the collapse of their money. For the record, I hate john mcain also. I wanted Ron Paul for prez. In 4 years he will have a much better shot at winning. The only thing I like about Obama are his energy policies and stem cell policies but when it comes to finance he is bush 2.When Clinton left office the USA had a 652 million dollar surplus, IBEW Union World magazine 2002 issue, eight months later it was all allocated and no politician or administration knew where it went. The USA will recover but it will take more than one term to fix no matter who is in charge of government. If all the analyst and economist would just give the facts and not there opinions and personal believes maybe the solution would be faster to attain. Even China is feeling the brunt of the economy with a 23% trade decrease in exports.
Let's all thank Bush for the debt and the current mess that we're in. I'm quite sorry you feel so bad about yourself since the new President, OBAMA, does not look like you. Sounds like the "Angry WHITE MAN" complex. We can debate ECON any day, but I prefer to discuss how issues relative to this thread effect the price of bunda... not Klan comments made from protection from your computer screen. Everyone's tough in the closet. Maybe there weren't enough white celebrities to elect another white prez. The PEOPLE have spoken and I believe there were many more whites than blacks that voted for something better and different. History judges all ELECTED officials, not some idiot named brazilwoman.
LonzofLets really just forget about who is white, black and latin and lets stick to what we all love which is THE BUNDA. Oh by the way I am neither black or white I am just HUMAN. Are we all on this forum. I love this place. So much Bunda so little time.
I actually voted for obamo moron. I will say this in front of blacks and have you moron. I said it when you idiots voted for marion barry and nagin. You will vote for anyone that looks like you. You know nothing about the issues, since you don't read. I didn't know obama was going to put us in all this debt, and anytime you want me to say it to your face I WILL! You blacks can't handle anything said negative about you. I guess when you have been pandered to for 50 years it gets tough. You know nothing about economics, like obama, but since he looks like you, idiot, you can't say anything bad about him. Thats why your crime rate is so high. You give each other a pass for everything.
Obama does have to do with the price of brazilian pussy, but your too stupid to know that. If you knew anything about economics you might know that, but since 50% of black people drop out of high school, reading isn't your strong suit. How does it feel having to go through life not being able to handle anything bad said about you, becuase your too sensitive. As far as Bush goes, he is the reason all this started, as I said in my post, and Obama is just finishing us off. In 4 years he will be thrown out, because there aren't enough black people to vote for him 3 times like crack barry.
"so much bunda so little time" When obama gets done with our money, you wont have any left to pay for bunda. Borrowing and spending is the reason we are in this mess, and obama actually thinks, by doing more borrowing and spending, we will get out of it. WHAT A IDIOT!! Thats like telling a obese person, if you want to lose weight, you need to eat more and exercise less.
Obama does have to do with the price of braziliahn pussy, but your too stupid to know that. If you knew anything about economics you might know that but since 50% of black people drop out of high school, reading isn't your strong suit. How does it feel having to go through life not being able to handle anything bad said about you becuase your too sensitive. As far as Bush goes, he is the reason all this started as I said in my post, and Obama is just finishing us off. In 4 years he will be thrown out because there aren't enough black people to vote for him 3 times like crack barry.
Is all I have to say, but the exchange is 2.02 to the dollar today. Brazilman, you really need to chill out dude or take your meds. Damn!!!
RR
The rate is 2 to 1, and its on the way to 1 to1, thanks to obamanomics.
Member #4156
05-21-09, 20:37
I actually voted for obamo moron. I will say this in front of blacks and have you moron. I said it when you idiots voted for marion barry and nagin. You will vote for anyone that looks like you. You know nothing about the issues, since you don't read. I didn't know obama was going to put us in all this debt, and anytime you want me to say it to your face I WILL! You blacks can't handle anything said negative about you. I guess when you have been pandered to for 50 years it gets tough. You know nothing about economics, like obama, but since he looks like you, idiot, you can't say anything bad about him. Thats why your crime rate is so high. You give each other a pass for everything.
Didn't this ******* just say earlier in another post he wanted RON PAUL for Prez? Now all of a sudden he wants to claim he casted a ballot for Obama just to obtain credibility for his rants?? Liar Liar Pants On Fire.
Look here you arm chair economist, you've successfully demonstrated that you're intellectually bankrupt and you don't know dick about the economy. Just because you're able to repeat something from sounding like it came from an Alex Jones or Rush Limbaugh show doesn't mean you're qualified to pass opinions off as facts as say um...a Paul Krugman or Warren Buffet. Besides, the moment you went on your racist rant like you were on Stormfront, particularly disqualified you from being taken seriously or intellectually for that matter. You seem very tough to say whatever in the comfort of your own home...I will never run a mile again with a Racist on this forum again. And finally, I look forward to your punk ass being pissed off for the next 7 1/2 years. Elections do have consequences pussy.
[Deleted by Admin] You just can't handle the truth. Ron paul had no chance to win, so I didn't vote for him. I voted for Obama, because I wanted stem cell research to pass and higher mpg on cars. Obama did that. Good for him. Now he needs to get a economic brain, because it won't matter what my mileage is when it cost 500 for a candy bar. It doesn't take much to know that getting us into more debt won't get us out of debt. [Deleted by Admin]! Can't you see this! Of course you can't because [Deleted by Admin] know nothing about the issues today. Go vote for [Deleted by Admin] Thats all you [Deleted by Admin] know how do do when you can't win a argument. [Deleted by Admin]! YOU OWE ME! [Deleted by Admin] .
EDITOR'S NOTE: This report was edited in accordance with the Forum's Zero Tolerance policy regarding reports containing any personal attacks or derogatory comments directed towards another Forum Member or the Forum Membership in general.
One of the great things about being white, is we can actually admit we made a mistake, like I did voting for nomorebama. You on the other hand, can't form a opinion that goes against td jakes and al sharpton. Now go away. When obama loses in 4 years, are you going to scream racism and riot. PUSSY! I better lock up my plasma tv in 4 years, because you might want reparations from me and come steal it. SINCE I OWE YOU. LOL! You got to love it when blacks call us a pussy, even though they need their guns and pack of 10 to rob and beat on people. Can't fight like a man. Always need your gang banging buddies around. You had to shoot another one of your rappers named dollar last week. I wonder what al sharpton has to say about that.
Poucolouco
05-21-09, 21:03
Didn't this ******* just say earlier in another post he wanted RON PAUL for Prez? Now all of a sudden he wants to claim he casted a ballot for Obama just to obtain credibility for his rants?? Liar Liar Pants On Fire.
Look here you arm chair economist, you've successfully demonstrated that you're intellectually bankrupt and you don't know dick about the economy. Just because you're able to repeat something from sounding like it came from an Alex Jones or Rush Limbaugh show doesn't mean you're qualified to pass opinions off as facts as say um...a Paul Krugman or Warren Buffet. Besides, the moment you went on your racist rant like you were on Stormfront, particularly disqualified you from being taken seriously or intellectually for that matter. You seem very tough to say whatever in the comfort of your own home...I will never run a mile again with a Racist on this forum again. And finally, I look forward to your punk ass being pissed off for the next 7 1/2 years. Elections do have consequences pussy.
If you put Brazilman on your Ignore List you won't even see his messages. He will just go away.
The rate is 2 to 1, and its on the way to 1 to1, thanks to obamanomics.This is necessary. The US couldn't keep running a trade deficit as large as it was - what was it, 6% of GDP not too long ago? That's nuts. A simple way to reduce your trade deficit is to let your currency weaken, just as is happening in the US and here in the UK. The dollar and pound have both been too strong (though a strong currency has its advantages, one of them mongering!), which has contributed to trade deficits, so a correction is needed. A weaker currency
1) makes our exports cheaper for foreign consumers, and...
2) makes imports more expensive for us, so our US- and UK-made goods are more attractive to US-UK consumers.
Both 1) and 2) will act to reduce a trade deficit. As for the Obama Administration's borrowing, the US government can borrow at virtually zero cost, so just relax.
This is necessary. The US couldn't keep running a trade deficit as large as it was - what was it, 6% of GDP not too long ago? That's nuts. A simple way to reduce your trade deficit is to let your currency weaken, just as is happening in the US and here in the UK. The dollar and pound have both been too strong (though a strong currency has its advantages, one of them mongering!), which has contributed to trade deficits, so a correction is needed. A weaker currency
1) makes our exports cheaper for foreign consumers, and...
2) makes imports more expensive for us, so our US- and UK-made goods are more attractive to US-UK consumers.
Both 1) and 2) will act to reduce a trade deficit. As for the Obama Administration's borrowing, the US government can borrow at virtually zero cost, so just relax.
Actually I agree with you except on your last point where the U.S can run trade deficits.
The U.S used to if it wanted to "Run trade deficits"
Actually the U.S filed bankruptcy earlier this year when it started "Quantitive Easing" (A stealth form of bankruptcy")
Bottom line is this corporate america and wall street runs the usa and wall street has posistioned itself against america, Obama was handpicked to be a puppet just like bush and clinton were. Do you realise the usa has not had a president in over 40 years? The real people that could have made a difference in the usa would have been those who would have stood up to corporate america and the banksters who have looted the federal reserve. Those people are a combination of Ralph Nader, Ron Paul and other progressive thinkers. Lets face it presidents for the 40 years plus have not upheld the constitutuion.
What the usa needs is a clean slate from top to bottom because the system has failed. I mean everyone has to fuking go from this scumbag lowlife president and all his snake advisors to every last devil congressman.
The constitution starts off with we the people not we the corporations but somehow over many years of corrupt payoffs politicians have been paid off to look the other way and now the usa is in for one hell of a struggle over the next few years.
Whe sould just chat about girls!
By the way my opinion is exacly opposite ;) but I do not care...
100 € = 284 R$ !!!! :p :p :p
IT
Whe sould just chat about girls!
By the way my opinion is exacly opposite ;) but I do not care...
100 € = 284 R$ !!!! :p :p :p
ITThere are many strange people here and ultimately my main concern is Brasileras!
Lonzof
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602096&sid=aLKJn5BL.SMk&refer=world_currencies
For what it's worth, an economist's survey estimate is for real at 2.16 at end of year.
"The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 23 economists is for the real to fall to 2.16 by December."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a5lCFDBFOLTQ&refer=currency
Exec Talent
06-01-09, 17:25
to know and tell.
The spread between the USD:BRL and EUR:BRL used to be about .65. Now it is about .82.
For those of you who converted Dollars to Euros around the 1.26 exchange point -- Smart, very smart.
But, the US economy is recovering, don't worry. At least according to all the government's fabricated numbers anyway.
BTW, did anyone see that GM filed for bankruptcy today?
Along with those big yellow buildings that have Bank in big black letters printed on them should be yellow cars with the simple word Car printed on them.
I am in Rio, so I definitely am feeling stimulated. However, I am wondering about those playing the home game. What are people going to use for money when hyper-inflation kicks in?
Member #1461
06-01-09, 22:42
The BC (The Brasilian Central Bank) is desperatly trying to artifically raise the value of the Dollar against the real for about 1 month with no sucess.
This is a link to an article at the end of the business day today in the economia section of of uol.com.br :
http://economia.uol.com.br/cotacoes/ultnot/2009/06/01/ult1918u2076.jhtm
To save you the trouble of reading it in portugues it says the central bank has been buying Dollars artifically for the 16th day in a row and is still not succeeding in stoppping the Dollar losing value.
They are usually buying in the range of about 1 billion US Dollars (2 billion real) each day for the last 16 days and they just cant stop the Dollar losing value.
If you scroll back and look at previous posts, about a month ago I said that the Dollar is about to lose its value very rapidly against the real in the coming months, I myself changed a very large sum of money from Dollars into real 2 days before at a 2.2 rate and warned we will see the Dollar at 1.7-1.8 within 2-3 months time. And now it is at 1.954.
Ok. Why is this happening ?
The reason was, and still is - foreign investments are pouring into Brasil at an ever increasing rate. The Banco Central has admited it on several ocasions in the last month.
Not to oversimplify the mechanics behind this phenomenon, the main reason is that Brasil is viewed (rightfully or wrongfully) by many foreign investors as being a place that has avoided most of the impact of the economic crisis, or suffered from it to a far lesser degree then the vast majority of the other nations of the world.
Assisting this viewpoint are many articles by some of the top economists of the world predicting Brasil is about to become a major economic player on the world markets in the coming years, and that by 2020, 11 years from now, Brasil's economy combined with thos of India, China and Russia (commonly refered to as the Bric countries) will surpass the economies of all the other nations of the world combined, including the US all of Europe and Japan put together) that is some serious vote of confidence in the Brasilian economy.
The Dollar was at 2.5 just 3 months ago (it actually went as high as 2.55 one day in its peak but closed that day at 2.5) and one month ago it was at 2.2. now its at 1.95. That is an amazing drop in just 3 months, if fact the Dollar lost close to 60% of all the value it has gained since the crisis began, from the the lowest point in August last year (which was 1.55) to its peak point 3 months ago (2.55) .
Although I will probably get criticised again by some members on this thread for saying it - it will get lower so if you are thinking of exchanging Dollars into Real now is your best time (well it was 2-3 months ago but it will only continue to get lower so now is the best opportunity still left). The Dollar will continue to drop because of the simple fact that foreign investors are fleeing traditional investments in Europe the US and Japan and are seeing an opportunity in Brasil which has pretty much not been affected by the crisis.
It is economics 101. the law of supply and demand. More and more people invest in Brasil so the value of its currency (the Real) gets stronger as the stock exchange goes higher, and the Dollar loses value against the Brasilian currency.
And although the Banco Central does not want a low Dollar because it is bad for Brasil's economy it is helpless in trying to stop it as they keep trying to buy Billions of Dollars on a daily basis trying to artificially raise the Dollar rate but they keep failing at it. As the article points out.
My guess still is that we will see the Dollar at about 1.7-1.8 in about 1-2 months. beyond that, is anyone's guess, but im inclined to think it will get stable at about 1.7 for a long period of time.
God Bless Brasil and Brasilian women, im enjoying every day here :) Best descision I ever made in my life was to choose to live here. And I am glad I also made the right descision to wait for a full year and a half before exchanging all the Dollars I have been saving for several years into Reais, and managed to exchange all of it at a favorable rate of 2.2 (although pity I didnt have the insight to to it already at 2.5).
Cheers and good luck everyone.
This off the BBC site that may be of interest to those of you that follow such things"
Brazil has gone into recession after its economy contracted by 0.8% in the first three months of 2009.
The figure from statistics agency IBGE was still better than expected and a big improvement on the 3.8% decline in the last three months of 2008.
Most economists define a recession as being two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
Also on Tuesday, Romania went into recession following a decline of 4.6% in the first three months of the year.
It had contracted 3.4% in the last three months of 2008, according to the statistics agency Ins.
The International Monetary Fund, which has recently approved a 12.9bn euro ($18bn; £11.1bn) loan for Romania, predicts that its economy will contract by 4.1% in the whole of 2009.
'Momentum'
In Brazil, while household spending grew 0.7% and government spending expanded 0.6%, capital spending fell by 12.6% in a sign of companies cutting back on investment.
"The stronger first-quarter number should add some momentum to the view that the second-quarter recovery could be stronger than expected and growth may not be as bad for the whole year," said Paul Biszko from RBC Capital Markets.
"Obviously it's positive for the currency and I think it will lessen the need for the central bank to cut interest rates aggressively, moving forward."
Foreign investors have been putting money into Brazil recently in the hope that its economy will recover more quickly than other countries.
The Ibovespa stock market index has been reaching levels not seen since before the global financial crisis.
2.8 reais for 1 euro in centro today. 3 reais for one pound sterling.
I changed sterling to euros in the UK at 1.12. It never makes sense to me why I get a better rate changing sterling to an intermediate currency, dollars or euros then changing to Reais.
Poucolouco
06-22-09, 03:28
I just heard there was a secret meeting in russia with many other countries and the usa was not allowed to attend. These countries are looking to drop the us dollar as the main currency. Your talking about the next depression in the us.
Are you refering to the BRIC meeing last week? No secrets here.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/17/world/europe/17bric.html
2.8 reais for 1 euro in centro today. 3 reais for one pound sterling.
I changed sterling to euros in the UK at 1.12. It never makes sense to me why I get a better rate changing sterling to an intermediate currency, dollars or euros then changing to Reais.
I found this also in some other countries, but not so much, I'm amazed with such a low rate for pound, i.e. 3 !!? Could you please check the £, €, $ on another day as you pass by the cambios and post with the date (and time) and I see how does that correspond with the actual currency rates....
Brazil’s Real Rallies Most in World
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a0NUgJ_G.iNc
Seeking information from experienced travelers.
1. What is the best way to access money? ATM machine or Cash exchange at Cambios?
2. if ATM machine, what bank(s) do you use and how much they charge you to access your money?
3. if you use ATM not related to your own bank, how much the foreign bank charge you.
the reason i ask this question to the board is;
I have been using HSBC USA bank ATM card to access cash. in the past, HSBC charge 1% (1% to Master Card, 0% to HSBC) to access cash from all their foreign HSBC ATM worldwide, including Brasil's. the rate turned out to be much better than i get from Cambio. However, beginning this year, they raised the fees to 3% (1% to MC, 2% to HSBC). an example, on Monday (6/22), US$1 = R$2.01. the cambio gave R$1.95 but HSBC, after accounted for fees was R$1.93.
i know a few US based banks offer customer 0% fee to use their ATM card outside the US and about to switch to these banks however, i must research on the ATM service charge if you are not their customers.
Looking forward to an active and informative discussion on this.
Seeking information from experienced travelers.
1. What is the best way to access money? ATM machine or Cash exchange at Cambios?
2. if ATM machine, what bank(s) do you use and how much they charge you to access your money?
3. if you use ATM not related to your own bank, how much the foreign bank charge you.
the reason i ask this question to the board is;
I have been using HSBC USA bank ATM card to access cash. in the past, HSBC charge 1% (1% to Master Card, 0% to HSBC) to access cash from all their foreign HSBC ATM worldwide, including Brasil's. the rate turned out to be much better than i get from Cambio. However, beginning this year, they raised the fees to 3% (1% to MC, 2% to HSBC). an example, on Monday (6/22), US$1 = R$2.01. the cambio gave R$1.95 but HSBC, after accounted for fees was R$1.93.
i know a few US based banks offer customer 0% fee to use their ATM card outside the US and about to switch to these banks however, i must research on the ATM service charge if you are not their customers.
Looking forward to an active and informative discussion on this.My US Bank has fees similar to what you described. So when I get money from an ATM in Brazil I generally use my PayPal debit card. Their exchange rate is the same or a cent better than my bank and they charge a flat fee of 1 US Dollar per withdrawal. The only downside is that they have a US$400 daily withdrawal limit that cannot be raised regardless of how good your credit is or how good a customer you have been. So instead of being able to get a full R$1,000 from the ATM I can only get about R$800 depending on that day's exchange rate.
I've also heard great things about using a Schwab debit card. They refund nearly all ATM fees. I've heard you only pay a fee if you use non-bank ATMs like Banco 24 Horas. I can't confirm this though since I don't have a Schwab account, but I'm opening one in a couple weeks when I head back to the US for a short holiday. I got the info on Schwab on this website in case you want to read more about it and other financial services:
http://www.kiplinger.com/magazine/archives/2008/12/best-financial-services-for-2008.html
BurnMax2007
07-12-09, 03:32
My US Bank has fees similar to what you described. So when I get money from an ATM in Brazil I generally use my PayPal debit card. Their exchange rate is the same or a cent better than my bank and they charge a flat fee of 1 US Dollar per withdrawal. The only downside is that they have a US$400 daily withdrawal limit that cannot be raised regardless of how good your credit is or how good a customer you have been. So instead of being able to get a full R$1,000 from the ATM I can only get about R$800 depending on that day's exchange rate.
I've also heard great things about using a Schwab debit card. They refund nearly all ATM fees. I've heard you only pay a fee if you use non-bank ATMs like Banco 24 Horas. I can't confirm this though since I don't have a Schwab account, but I'm opening one in a couple weeks when I head back to the US for a short holiday. I got the info on Schwab on this website in case you want to read more about it and other financial services:
http://www.kiplinger.com/magazine/archives/2008/12/best-financial-services-for-2008.htmlI've researched opening a bank account to avoid all of those annoying, deceptive fees and I also thought that Schwab seemed to be the best. Capitol One seems good but many people claim they have lousy customer service and some people get blocked from using their card overseas even if they notify Capitol One of their trip beforehand. But Captiol One does not charge or pass along Visa/Mastercard fees for international purchases, whereas most others do, so I may get a different card for international purchases instead of using the Schwab debit card.
I found this website most useful when researching this subject:
http://flyerguide.com/wiki/index.php/Credit/Debit/ATM_Cards_and_Foreign_Exchange
Pnc has no atm fees if you have a avg month balance of 2, 500 and reimburses for fees by the other bank such as citibank in Brasil or banco do 24 horas machines. HSBC atm does not charge a fee but does limit the amount you can take out per day depending on the atm but max R1000 a day. The atm's at GRU airport do not have a fee.
Capital one have been good to me so far, no fees and they give you the best rate of the previous day. Bank of America Amex is 1% int'l fee but states they use the discount bank rate. There are about 5 different rates used depending on the industry.
But 3% fee is nominal compared to the time, money, energy spent to get to brasil to let it deter you from having fun.
JohnnyBraz
07-23-09, 09:42
US dollar is down to 1.90r to the dollar, last week I was getting 2.00 to the dollar from bobby at Blame it on Rio travel.
I checked the history in oanda about Euro to Reais so:
2 january 2009: 1 euro=3,29 reais
27 july 2009: 1 euro=2,69 reais
Is this normal as we are in low season , in Brazil, and we can expect euro getting stronger in the end of year or what else ?
Different rate, but I guess, the problem is more or less the same with usd $.
Why Reais is getting so strong ? :(
If I calculated right, to enjoy Rio now is +22% more expensive than 7 months ago, obviously doing the same things, so it means to me a huge difference !!!
I checked the history in oanda about Euro to Reais so:
2 january 2009: 1 euro=3,29 reais
27 july 2009: 1 euro=2,69 reais
Is this normal as we are in low season , in Brazil, and we can expect euro getting stronger in the end of year or what else ?
Different rate, but I guess, the problem is more or less the same with usd $.
Why Reais is getting so strong ? :(
If I calculated right, to enjoy Rio now is +22% more expensive than 7 months ago, obviously doing the same things, so it means to me a huge difference !!!
The trend in the past 4 years is that the Real gets stronger with respect to the Euro. It sort of stabilized between 2.6 to 2.8 from 2006 to 2008. The actual financial crisis was a freak and the Real tanked down to 3.3 Real to an Euro. Since then, it has been quickly coming back to the 2.6/2.8 band.
Now the question is how high will the real go ? Financial institutions and sending their money to the Brazilian market that doesn't have the depth of the American or European markets. Could it be a new financial bubble ?
Bimbo Boy
Fast Eddie 48
07-28-09, 00:17
I was at Sao paulo a few week ago try to cash some of my amex express TC, most major bank want 10 usd comission for each 100 check that 10% highest I ever seen, even bank in China is only 5 usd, maybe next time I bring check in us 500 or 1000.
I find bank in brazil are slow and hard to deal with, do anyone know place in Sao paulo that I can cash TC cheap.
Fast Eddie 48
We will continue to see the Dollar weakening against most of the world's currencies, and probably even more against the real.
It is really a simple question of supply and demand. Foreigners want to buy the Brasilian currency, the Real, and they want to invest in the Brasilian stock exchange (BOVESPA) and as a result the Real gets stronger (high demand) and the Dollar gets weaker.
It is a proccess which will continue for a good deal of time IMHO. I have been saying it on this thread since the rate was 2.2 that there is a massive influx of foreign traders interested in investing in Brasil, and that we will see the Dollar drop rapidly due to that.
The Brasilian government DOES NOT want the Dollar low, its bad for exporters in Brasil, and every day they set a point in the value of the Real:Dollar exchange that they start to Buy Dollars thus increasing its value artificially.
However the demand for the Real is so great that it has little effect.
Yesterday for example (19 of May) the point of purchase for Dollars was 2.057, and they invested 2 billion real to try to raise the level of the Dollar artificailly and they failed it ended much lower (2% drop).
I am trying to make the point that rightfully or wrongfully, Brasil is percieved by investers in the world as a good place to invest their money, fuled by favorable analysis by some of the world's top economists, this has created a sort of "buzz" around Brasil's market and its rising rapidly, while the Dollar is devaluating rapidly.
I am not making the judgement here if is really justified or not, whether the Brasilian economy is handling the crisis better then other world economies or not, I am just making the point that investers think that it is. And that is what makes the Dollar lose value fast against the Real.
I stil maintain my previous statement that we WILL see the Dollar:Real exchange rate at 1.7/1.8 in about 2 months time, and anyone who wishes to exchange Dollars into Real, especially large sums of money would do well to do it now while the rate is still 2:1. I gave the exact same advice about 2 weeks ago when the rate was 2.2:1 and I am giving it again now.
You WILL be sorry if you wait for the rate to go higher, it wont, you will just be eating your heart out when it reaches 1.8 or lower.Excellent forecast and almost fulfilled.
Long rise to the real and the Brazil 2028 10.25% Global BRL bonds !
Poucolouco
07-29-09, 16:23
I was at Sao paulo a few week ago try to cash some of my amex express TC, most major bank want 10 usd comission for each 100 check that 10% highest I ever seen, even bank in China is only 5 usd, maybe next time I bring check in us 500 or 1000.
I find bank in brazil are slow and hard to deal with, do anyone know place in Sao paulo that I can cash TC cheap.
Fast Eddie 48
Why don't you go to the AMEX office to cash amex checks?
What a dump the usd is taking against the Real! Makes me want to head somewhere else in South America.
Dang it.
http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSN0526793920090805
[QUOTE=Edward M]Dang it.
in the long run if the Real keeps strengthening. Exports are going to become very challenging to purchase because of a stronger Real and Tourism will start to go down as well. Why go to Brazil when you can go to Dominican Republic or Mexico who has weaker currencies.
Exec Talent
08-06-09, 04:17
Dang it.
http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSN0526793920090805
A little busy right now, but take a look at the ETF - EWZ. That was one way to have made money on the rise in the BOVESPA. Currency trading is another. Remember there almost always is a way to make money. Movement is the key. As long as there is movement, there is money to be made.
If you only look at the financial world from the perspective of exchanging Dollars to Reais at a cambio in Rio, then shame on you.
BTW, even when there is no movement, you can make money by providing money to those who are not making money because there is no movement.
Exec Talent
08-06-09, 04:24
[QUOTE=Edward M]Dang it.
in the long run if the Real keeps strengthening. Exports are going to become very challenging to purchase because of a stronger Real and Tourism will start to go down as well. Why go to Brazil when you can go to Dominican Republic or Mexico who has weaker currencies.
What will hurt the country (Brazil) is domestic inflation. The Brazilian government has been underreporting. Do not believe what you read. Goes for the BS the US government and US corps are putting out also. Microsoft's guidance and economic forecast has been the closest I have seen to the truth.
What a dump the usd is taking against the Real! Makes me want to head somewhere else in South America.
I just got back last week. When I turned in my left over reals, I made money. Feels good. Looks like it back to the DR.
Why don't you go to the AMEX office to cash amex checks?
I find that the best way to beat all of these fees and comissions is to just bring cash.
I just got back last week. When I turned in my left over reals, I made money. Feels good. Looks like it back to the DR.
I understand what you're saying, but the exchange rate doesn't dictate where I go for mongering. I have a blast in Rio, and until my tastes change, or some experience sours me on the whole scene, I'll just keep going.
In fact, with people staying away, there are more girls for me, and a higher demand for my USD. So I guess that's a thank you!!
ryjer
I guess you mean slight changes to currency exchange does not affect where you are going.....
I mean this statement without the "slight" could also mean "I don't care how much I pay for mongering" ! Then you can also come here to London, UK where you can find Brazilian girls or from any other nationality you desire, some university educated, extremely beutiful, very smart and speak perfect English, for $$$$. Well, you can probably find the same in your home town....
I guess you mean slight changes to currency exchange does not affect where you are going.....
I mean this statement without the "slight" could also mean "I don't care how much I pay for mongering" ! Then you can also come here to London, UK where you can find Brazilian girls or from any other nationality you desire, some university educated, extremely beutiful, very smart and speak perfect English, for $$$$. Well, you can probably find the same in your home town....
Uzinuzin - I'm not sure if you've got the point here. If you read the Brasil forum you will find a demarcation between a hefty proportion of members who go cos they love the country (but like having the mongering too), and another hefty section who just go for the mongering. Although I'm in the former - which means unless costs become completely prohibitive, I'll go anyway. The 'mongering only' group would be quick to point out that you can't get the Brasil mongering experience anywhere else really, even with Brasilian girls - and I've mongered with several very lovely Brasilian girls in London too.
If you haven't been yet, you really need to try as no amount of words will ever adequately explain it IMHO. If you have, I can respect your opinion if you don't think it's worth the dosh, maybe even agree with your figures, but have to disagree on your conclusion!
Well, you can probably find the same in your home town....
Not in my home town,I assure you!
The 'mongering only' group would be quick to point out that you can't get the Brasil mongering experience anywhere else really, even with Brasilian girls - and I've mongered with several very lovely Brasilian girls in London too.
This is absolutely right. I have mongered with Brazilian girls in Europe and in the Nevada brothels, and the experience is not the same. I think that they are influenced by the more jaded European and American girls, lose their enthusiasm, and reduce service and enthusiasm to a minimum. The Brazilian mongering experience must be experienced in Brazil.
It's true I have not mongered in Brazil, I had a few Brazilian girls here and there but I'm looking forward to experiencing the real thing. (I had one in German FKK, when I went down on her she got so turned on, she turned me over and said, just put the condom on and let me get off first, then I would do absoulutely anything you desire... LOL! I hear they are all like that over there !?)
As you mentioned some guys are insisting that the garotas in Brazil are quite special. I guess I need to experience it for myself and then I would know, that's why I'm learning the lingo and hope that I will like Brazil and it's garotas and make more visits. It's a huge country with a lot of potential to mix mongering with a lot of other travel activities. Just how I like it !
But budget at some point always comes to play, so let's hope those of us without bottom-less pockets don't get priced out of the Brazilian mongering market.
Has anyone used their PayPal debit card to access cash via ATMs? What has your experience been like with fees and exchange rates? It has relatively low fees and exchanges rates better than those charged by the cambios.
Misinformation
08-12-09, 04:34
Paypal debit card will definitely work but it is extremely likely that Paypal will freeze your account shortly thereafter. Keep in mind Paypal is not like Citibank or HSBC where you can just call the number on the back of the card and say "hey, it's me, Bill. Yes, I'm on vacation in Brazil" and they say "OK Mr. Smith, thanks for calling we will remove the block". With paypal you may get banned forever. Check www.paypalsucks.com. You really shouldn't keep any money in your paypal account.
Anyone interested in changing money got to Blame it on Rio Travel on Rua Xavier da Silveria.(right off Miguel Lemos) Guys name is Bobby, super guy, bring in boxes of Bounce from the States for him. He has stacked washers there also for those who need to wash the clothes. Great service. Changed 3,000USD today, no problem, gave me 1.85 as well.
That's better than today's XE exchange rate of 1.83. Thanks for the tip.
Regarding PayPal debit card usage in foreign countries, you have to make sure to call them ahead of time and let them know your travel dates and countries you will be visiting. If your account gets flagged for "suspicious activity", they will be aware of your whereabouts. I checked on fees: ATM usage fee $1, foreign transaction fee 1% of amount and if PayPal does the conversion its an extra 2.5% (this rarely happens since ATM provider usually does it).
Anyone interested in changing money got to Blame it on Rio Travel on Rua Xavier da Silveria.(right off Miguel Lemos) Guys name is Bobby, super guy, bring in boxes of Bounce from the States for him. He has stacked washers there also for those who need to wash the clothes. Great service. Changed 3,000USD today, no problem, gave me 1.85 as well.
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