Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Tiny 12]

What is the origin of the conflict? What are the positions of the parties? How to end the conflict in a way that will bring open borders, friendship and better life? How to avoid escalation of this conflict?Absolutely. That's what the Russians, Ukrainians and the West should be seeking, not escalation or continuing the killing. Admittedly as pointed out by another poster, open borders (between the EU, Ukraine, Russia, etc) and friendship may be a ways off.


Thank you very much. Let me rephrase, for example:

I guess President Lyndon be. Johnson wanted to be remembered in history as the next Barry Lyndon the Great. He didn't care if hundreds of thousands Vietnamese and Americans were killed for this purpose. Vietnamese wanted to be able to make their own decisions about their own country. Johnson believed that he could invade any neighbouring country if he felt like it. I doubt you will have open borders and friendship between Vietnam and the US. Then there was George W. Bush and Iraq. While the Iraqi's weren't able too make their own decisions about their own country, the grand experiment in installing democracy didn't work out too well.

Also, in decades and centuries past, there are the governments, a number of which were democracies, in Latin American and other places, overthrown with the help of Uncle Sam.

[Xpartan]

There is not a single tyrant in the last 100 years--Lenin, Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Pol Pot, or Putin--who would've been as successful in their genocidal efforts if it hadn't been for a cheerful and enthusiastic assistance from useful idiots in the West.

[PaulInZurich]

Then there was George W. Bush and Iraq. While the Iraqi's weren't able too make their own decisions about their own country, the grand experiment in installing democracy didn't work out too well.

Also, in decades and centuries past, there are the governments, a number of which were democracies, in Latin American and other places, overthrown with the help of Uncle Sam.How do horrible American policies justify Putins invasion of Ukraine?

[Questner]

The narrative about Mr. Putin ambition is a fantasy. It's not a fact, theory or even speculation without being corroborated by his statements or other trustworthy source as defined by the intelligence community. The decision for the SMO was debated and authorized by the whole Security Council of the RF. Such decisions are not rubber stamped.

Ukrainians likely want to make their own decisions, but who would let them? This 'who would let them' is widely and clearly understood phrase both in Russia and Ukraine. It's the West who had all the chances not to intervene, not to spoil, molest, corrupt, bribe and undermine Ukraine's sovereignty but acted otherwise.

[John Clayton]

The narrative about Mr. Putin ambition is a fantasy. It's not a fact, theory or even speculation without being corroborated by his statements or other trustworthy source as defined by the intelligence community. The decision for the SMO was debated and authorized by the whole Security Council of the RF. Such decisions are not rubber stamped.

Ukrainians likely want to make their own decisions, but who would let them? This 'who would let them' is widely and clearly understood phrase both in Russia and Ukraine. It's the West who had all the chances not to intervene, not to spoil, molest, corrupt, bribe and undermine Ukraine's sovereignty but acted otherwise.100% Russian propaganda.

[PaulInZurich]

The narrative about Mr. Putin ambition is a fantasy. It's not a fact, theory or even speculation without being corroborated by his statements or other trustworthy source as defined by the intelligence community. The decision for the SMO was debated and authorized by the whole Security Council of the RF. Such decisions are not rubber stamped.This is so fucking funny. The guys in the Russian security council don't even wipe their ass unless Putin tells them to. Just a bunch of guys with mentality of slaves. Be careful, if you say otherwise, you will find out if you can fly.



Ukrainians likely want to make their own decisions, but who would let them? This 'who would let them' is widely and clearly understood phrase both in Russia and Ukraine. It's the West who had all the chances not to intervene, not to spoil, molest, corrupt, bribe and undermine Ukraine's sovereignty but acted otherwise.Who said that Ukraine is not even a real country? Right, that was your daddy Vladdy.

[Tiny 12]

Eldar Mamedov addresses beliefs of a couple of board members in this piece in Responsible Statecraft.

McCarthyism, European style: The elite crackdown on Ukraine dissent

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/europe-ukraine-war/


How do horrible American policies justify Putins invasion of Ukraine?


Vietnam or Iraq or whatever have nothing to do with the invasion of Ukraine.Eldar writes, Stranne (leading Swedish international relations scholar Frida Stranne), while acknowledging that Russias invasion of Ukraine was an egregious breach of international law, pointed to U.S. policies since 2001, such as the invasion of Iraq, noting that they have helped to undermine international legal principles and set the precedent for other countries acting preemptively against perceived threats.

In the same interview, she also warned that a refusal to countenance a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine is leading the world perilously close to the brink of a major military conflict between NATO and Russia..


Useful idiots are guilty too. Blood on their hands.

There is not a single tyrant in the last 100 years--Lenin, Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Pol Pot, or Putin--who would've been as successful in their genocidal efforts if it hadn't been for a cheerful and enthusiastic assistance from useful idiots in the West.If you're going to include Putin with that group then you darn well better include George W. Bush too. By some estimates over 4 million died as a result of what he kicked off after September 11.

Anyway, Eldar writes, " In March 2022, both Ukraine and Russia were close to a deal broadly along these same parameters. It did not work, because, among other reasons, the West encouraged Ukraine to believe that a military victory was possible. The role of then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in undermining the talks is now generally acknowledged. What is, however, particularly striking is that Johnson recently himself admitted that he saw the war in Ukraine as a proxy war against Russia a claim made by Stranne and the Quincy Institutes Trita Parsi in their 2023 book, in Swedish, The Illusion of American Peace, for which they were lambasted for purportedly pushing Russian narratives..

Now, who are the useful idiots, for the benefit of the arms industry and the generals? Academics like Frida Stranne and politicians like Donald Trump who've been pushing for peace since when this lunacy started? Or warmongers like Boris Johnson? A majority of Ukrainians now want negotiations to start to end the war. Are they useful idiots? From the NYT today,

For all of Mr. Trumps bluster, many in Ukraine have pinned their hopes on him to end the war on acceptable terms. A recent poll by the New Europe Center found that 44 percent of Ukrainians trust Mr. Trump, higher than in any other European country, including Trump-friendly Hungary....I hope Trump will do what he promised for peace to come to Ukraine, said Yulia Lymych, 25, a real-estate agent. This is the main wish of Ukrainians. I feel very sorry for the guys who died at war. I have friends who died and friends who are still fighting. My boyfriend is fighting. I want them all to come back home.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/14/world/europe/trump-ukraine-russia.html?searchResultPosition=1

Is Yulia Lymych a useful idiot?

Putin's not genocidal. That's ridiculous. If he resorted to tactics like General Curtis LeMay or Air Chief Marshal Sir Arthur Harris, who masterminded carpet bombing of Japanese and German civilians respectively, there would be a lot of dead Ukrainian civilians. And that's without using nuclear weapons. This is almost certainly lower than the real number, but the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has only verified 12,162 Ukrainian civilian deaths through October, 2024.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293492/ukraine-war-casualties/

[Xpartan]

Priceless LOL!




Pearl #1: The narrative about mr. Putin ambition is a fantasy. It's not a fact, theory or even speculation without being corroborated by his statements or other trustworthy source.

Pearl #2: ukrainians likely want to make their own decisions, but who would let them? this 'who would let them' is widely and clearly understood phrase both in russia and ukraine.

[PaulInZurich]

In March 2022, both Ukraine and Russia were close to a deal broadly along these same parameters. It did not work, because, among other reasons ... The "among other reasons" details are deal breakers.

Other than accepting the occupation of a large part of Ukrainian territory one other condition was severely limiting the size of the Ukrainian army to 50000 and what weapons it was allowed to have (aviation, armor, missiles). This would have guaranteed that Ukraine would have no means to defend itself in the future. Of course, Ukraine would have to trust Putin that it would not invade again, like after Minsk 1 and Minsk 2. Third time's a charm, right? It's not like Putin repeatedly said that Ukraine has no right to exist.

Such an accord could work only if you would have credible foreign troops as buffer between the Ukrainians and the Russians. What credible foreign troops are acceptable for both Russia and Ukraine?

The biggest success of Putin is that he managed to bullshit half the Republican party in the US. Ronald Reagan is turning in his grave.

[Sirioja]

Putin already robbed Crimea, now trying with Ukraine and killing nearly 1 million Russians. He also try to fuck Georgia and Romania. Our world would be better if we get rid of Putin. New Lenin, time to wake up, look what happened in Syria, all is possible even with a crazy dangerous who kill your children. Russia would live much better without Putin, when Russians and Ukrainians are brothers with many mixed families.

[Tiny 12]

The "among other reasons" details are deal breakers.

Other than accepting the occupation of a large part of Ukrainian territory one other condition was severely limiting the size of the Ukrainian army to 50000 and what weapons it was allowed to have (aviation, armor, missiles). This would have guaranteed that Ukraine would have no means to defend itself in the future. Of course, Ukraine would have to trust Putin that it would not invade again, like after Minsk 1 and Minsk 2. Third time's a charm, right? It's not like Putin repeatedly said that Ukraine has no right to exist.

Such an accord could work only if you would have credible foreign troops as buffer between the Ukrainians and the Russians. What credible foreign troops are acceptable for both Russia and Ukraine?

The biggest success of Putin is that he managed to bullshit half the Republican party in the US. Ronald Reagan is turning in his grave.I agree, that blaming it solely on Boris Johnson and western pressure is simplistic. This is the best article I've seen on negotiations during the early part of the war.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-deal.html

The biggest obstacle, as you say, revolved around how Ukraine could defend itself. But still the USA, Poland and others were encouraging the Ukrainians not to do a deal.

Excerpts from the article:

"We managed to find a very real compromise," Oleksandr Chalyi, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating team, said at a panel discussion in Geneva last December. "We were very close in the middle of April, in the end of April (2022), to finalize our war with some peaceful settlement. ".

The biggest problem, however, came in Article 5 (of the April 15,2022 draft peace treaty). It stated that, in the event of another armed attack on Ukraine, the "guarantor states" that would sign the treaty Great Britain, China, Russia, the United States and France would come to Ukraine's defense.

To the Ukrainians' dismay, there was a crucial departure from what Ukrainian negotiators said was discussed in Istanbul. Russia inserted a clause saying that all guarantor states, including Russia, had to approve the response if Ukraine were attacked. In effect, Moscow could invade Ukraine again and then veto any military intervention on Ukraine's behalf a seemingly absurd condition that Kyiv quickly identified as a dealbreaker.

With that change, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating team said, "we had no interest in continuing the talks. ".

They were very close. It's sad the two sides didn't continue talking after that. In the beginning stages of the war, when the front lines were changing daily, one or the other side was not going to want to negotiate because it thought it was winning. But there's been no excuse since about November, 2022, when this became the 21st century equivalent of "World War I trench warfare. ".

[Questner]

This is so fucking funny. The guys in the Russian security council don't even wipe their ass unless Putin tells them to. Just a bunch of guys with mentality of slaves. Be careful, if you say otherwise, you will find out if you can fly.

Who said that Ukraine is not even a real country? Right, that was your daddy Vladdy.You are most welcome to extend your epithets to elected officials of your own country. You are exactly what we have been thinking of for years.

Ukraine became de facto a separate country, which is what matters most after all. However the legal process has never been followed up according to the letter of law.

Ukraine is part of our common homeland and we will never let you in like we did in the past, no Poles or Lithuanians, no Swedes, no Germans or French and no Americans. You don't belong here.

[Riina]

Who said that Ukraine is not even a real country? Ukraine doesn't have politicians, only different faces of oligarchs. Foreign business paying to play is tolerated.

[John Clayton]

...Ukraine is part of our common homeland and we will never let you in like we did in the past...Pure Russian propaganda -- unchanged since the czars.

[Sirioja]

You are most welcome to extend your epithets to elected officials of your own country. You are exactly what we have been thinking of for years.

Ukraine became de facto a separate country, which is what matters most after all. However the legal process has never been followed up according to the letter of law.

Ukraine is part of our common homeland and we will never let you in like we did in the past, no Poles or Lithuanians, no Swedes, no Germans or French and no Americans. You don't belong here.Ukraine got independant when Putin was only unknown in KGB. Putin stole Crimea and now probably Georgia. He is killing many Russians and at war and fucking others. Wonderful Russia would be better without such crazy shameful dangerous, with more freedom and true informations. Putin was not anymore able to save Al Assad and need shameful North Korea, Iraq and China to help him versus weak Ukraine. Lands of freedom and human rights club helping Putin. Russia is not anymore able to build engines for military ships. Many mixed Ukrainian Russian familles, when they are brothers.

[Xpartan]

Putin's Chemical Ali is blown up by a scooter.


A senior Russian general was killed Tuesday by a bomb hidden in a scooter outside his apartment building in Moscow, a day after Ukraines security service leveled criminal charges against him. A Ukrainian official said the service carried out the attack.

Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, the chief of the militarys nuclear, biological and chemical protection forces, was killed as he left for his office. Kirillovs assistant also died in the attack.

Kirillov, 54, was under sanctions from several countries, including the U.K. and Canada, for his actions in Moscows war in Ukraine. On Monday, Ukraines Security Service, or SBU, opened a criminal investigation against him, accusing him of directing the use of banned chemical weapons.

An official with the SBU said the agency was behind the attack. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to release the information, described Kirillov as a war criminal and an entirely legitimate target.https://apnews.com/article/russia-explosion-head-of-nuclear-defense-forces-killed-9656bce946a9f552454df9debe5fbd18

Winter is coming to Russia. Finally.


Russian winter crops are failing at an "unprecedented" rate, sparking fears that food prices could spiral out of control and lead to social unrest. Russian consumers have already experienced significant price hikes for basic food staples over the summer and autumn amid broader economic concerns.

Potato prices have skyrocketed by a staggering 78%, while costs for cabbage, beetroot, and butter have also surged between 27 and 31%. However, the situation looks set to worsen for hard-pressed Russian consumers, with farmers facing a record loss of winter crops.

The Russian analytical centre ProZerno reported that the share of poor and unsprouted winter crops for the 2025 harvest was at 38%. The researchers, who analysed data from the Hydro Meteorological Centre, described the number as "an unprecedentedly huge value", adding the situation had "never been this bad."https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/major-vladimir-putin-war-blow-as-russia-faces-unprecedented-economic-setback/ar-AA1w0FiK

[Questner]

Quote of the day.

Ukrainians are holding on, even as conditions above (and below) the ground become increasingly grim. Rain, slush, snow, cold, mud, bugs, worms, rats and glide bombs, says non-commissioned officer Ruslan Mokritsky. In the Kursk region, death is always close; it practically holds your hand.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/12/16/ukrainian-troops-celebrate-a-grim-christmas-in-kursk

Ukrainian troops celebrate a grim Christmas in Kursk.

The West sees a gloomy picture for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region. Constant bombing, cold, dirt, rats, worms and sovereign dreams of Coca-Cola.

Major of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Ivan Bakrev speaks frankly about Ukraine's problems in the Kursk region: Vladimir Putin's people are tightening the screws, and this was even before North Korean soldiers began to enter the battle.

The Russians have a massive advantage in almost everything. Men, artillery, equipment. And switch between mechanized and infantry attacks to great effect.

Ukraine has already lost about half of the territories it once controlled. The failures began when Kiev replaced elite units with less seasoned ones in late September, and the major believes that this was a mistake.

Now the Russians are trying to cut off the main group from Ukraine by attacking the eastern and western flanks. All units in the Kursk region have gone on the defensive, he says.

The urgency of Russia's counteroffensive appears to be linked to Donald Trump's upcoming inauguration. Vladimir Putin wants the Kursk region to avoid becoming an awkward topic of discussion. Volodymyr Zelensky appears equally determined to keep it as a bargaining chip.

Ukrainians are holding on, even as conditions above (and below) the ground become increasingly grim. Rain, slush, snow, cold, mud, bugs, worms, rats and glide bombs, says non-commissioned officer Ruslan Mokritsky. In the Kursk region, death is always close; it practically holds your hand.

For Major Bakrev, the answer to the question of how he will celebrate Christmas is quite simple: Maybe I'll celebrate with a couple of volleys from our guns.

Officer Mokritsky, who will probably spend the night underground, shrugs. The soldiers on the front lines will celebrate as best they can: Maybe we'll have Coca-Cola.

[PaulInZurich]

You are most welcome to extend your epithets to elected officials of your own country.Members of the Russian security council are appointed by Putin, not elected. Come to think about it, that is probably what you think a free and fair election is. The dictator appoints somebody and everybody else better shut up or they get to admire the great outdoors in Siberia.

[Xpartan]

--BUT ONLY WHEN IT SUITS THEM.

Unfortunately, MSM can be wrong, clumsy and inaccurate. Real journalists don't lie on purpose, but they can be lazy or rely on other sources in their research and fact-checking--as a result, failing victims to Russia's disinformation campaigns.

The Economist is wrong claiming that Ukraine has lost "about half" of their initial gains in Kursk Oblast. I mean, no one could've possibly blamed Ukraine if they have, being that 10,000 Ukrainians are holding off a 60,000-stong horde. But from what I'm seeing on Deep State and ISW, the geolocation data confirms Russian gains in 3 villages total (as of 12.16).

Three, that's it. Where does "about half" come from? Does The Economist quote Russian war bloggers / propacondoms now?

Sheesh!

[Questner]

Quote of the day by the Russian President about UKRAINIAN LEADERSHIP:

They will run away someday and will go not to church, but to the beach.

These people are not even atheists. Atheists are people who believe in something. They believe that God does not exist. But this is their faith, their conviction. And these are not atheists, they are simply people without any faith at all, such atheists. After all, they are ethnic Jews, but who has seen them in a synagogue? In my opinion, no one has seen them in a synagogue. It seems that they are not Orthodox, because they do not go to churches either. They are certainly not followers of Islam, because they are unlikely to appear in a mosque. These are people without a family, without a tribe. They do not care about anything that is dear to us and the overwhelming majority of the Ukrainian people. They will run away someday and will go not to church, but to the beach.

[Xpartan]

Chechnya's self-governing mafia don and Putin's pet Kadyrov shot an anti-aircraft Pantsir-S1 missile at an Azerbaijani passenger flight that was attempting to land at Chechnya's Grozny Airport. Despite the heavy damage and desperate pleas from the pilots, the plane was denied landing at Grozny, as well as 2 other Russian airports in Makhachkala and Mineralnye Vody and was instructed to cross the Caspian Sea and land in Kazakhstan. On approach to Aktau airport in Kazakhstan, the plane crash-landed killing 38 people on board including both pilots.

The Russians were likely hoping that the plane would dive into the sea, making it difficult if not impossible to identify them as the culprits. Some experts allege that Russia had intentionally turned off the plane's navigation system to further complicate any attempts at recovery. Unfortunately for them, the pilots managed to cross the Caspian Sea and reach the airport. As a result, 27 people survived the crash.

In Putin's Russia planes down missiles. What a country!

[Xpartan]

WATCH: Russian Air Defenses Shoot Down Santa Claus in Christmas Video


A Christmas short video spreading on Russia's pro-government Telegram channels depicted the country's air defense system shooting down Santa Claus as he entered Moscow airspace.

The clip surfaced on Russian social media, including Telegram and VK, just hours after Russia was accused of being involved in the crash of an airplane in Kazakhstan, which killed 38 people.What a country!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/public-safety-and-emergencies/general/watch-russian-air-defenses-shoot-down-santa-claus-in-christmas-video/ar-AA1wA76J?ocid=BingNewsSerp

https://youtu.be/NOVni9TaF4s

[Blood Red]

Chechnya's self-governing mafia don and Putin's pet Kadyrov shot an anti-aircraft Pantsir-S1 missile at an Azerbaijani passenger flight that was attempting to land at Chechnya's Grozny Airport. Despite the heavy damage and desperate pleas from the pilots, the plane was denied landing at Grozny, as well as 2 other Russian airports in Makhachkala and Mineralnye Vody and was instructed to cross the Caspian Sea and land in Kazakhstan. On approach to Aktau airport in Kazakhstan, the plane crash-landed killing 38 people on board including both pilots.

The Russians were likely hoping that the plane would dive into the sea, making it difficult if not impossible to identify them as the culprits. Some experts allege that Russia had intentionally turned off the plane's navigation system to further complicate any attempts at recovery. Unfortunately for them, the pilots managed to cross the Caspian Sea and reach the airport. As a result, 27 people survived the crash.

In Putin's Russia planes down missiles. What a country!'Some Experts'. Yeah.

[Xpartan]

Chechnya's self-governing mafia don and Putin's pet Kadyrov shot an anti-aircraft Pantsir-S1 missile at an Azerbaijani passenger flight that was attempting to land at Chechnya's Grozny Airport. Despite the heavy damage and desperate pleas from the pilots, the plane was denied landing at Grozny, as well as 2 other Russian airports in Makhachkala and Mineralnye Vody and was instructed to cross the Caspian Sea and land in Kazakhstan. On approach to Aktau airport in Kazakhstan, the plane crash-landed killing 38 people on board including both pilots.

The Russians were likely hoping that the plane would dive into the sea, making it difficult if not impossible to identify them as the culprits. Some experts allege that Russia had intentionally turned off the plane's navigation system to further complicate any attempts at recovery. Unfortunately for them, the pilots managed to cross the Caspian Sea and reach the airport. As a result, 27 people survived the crash.

In Putin's Russia planes down missiles. What a country!


'Some Experts'. Yeah.While it would be more preferable to get this from a few world-reknowned experts (and I hope we will at some point), but honestly, what would it change? Your guilt in the MH17 downing was established by two European courts well beyond reasonable doubt, with the help of the most prominent aviation and security experts in the world, yet you keep denying. I mean, seriously, for a country that looks like a lying duck, swims like a lying duck, squawks like a lying duck and lies like a lying duck, "some experts" will always be a more trustworthy source compared to anything coming out of your mouths.


However, new reports claim that Russia denied the plane an emergency landing, despite it suffering critical damage and the pilots repeated pleas, at three different airports.

The Azeri Times also claims that Russia then tampered with the planes GPS system, forcing the pilot to divert the plane over the Caspian Sea.

The outlet says this was a deliberate attempt to make the plane crash in water to conceal any evidence of an attack.

Earlier, aviation analysts said images from the crash site point to damage from an air defence system, while multiple sources have told the Reuters news agency the same.https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russia-denied-emergency-landing-azerbaijan-airlines-plane-jammed-gps-crash/

[Haokool]

While it would be more preferable to get this from a few world-reknowned experts (and I hope we will at some point), but honestly, what would it change? Your guilt in the MH17 downing was established by two European courts well beyond reasonable doubt, with the help of the most prominent aviation and security experts in the world, yet you keep denying. I mean, seriously, for a country that looks like a lying duck, swims like a lying duck, squawks like a lying duck and lies like a lying duck, "some experts" will always be a more trustworthy source compared to anything coming out of your mouths.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russia-denied-emergency-landing-azerbaijan-airlines-plane-jammed-gps-crash/You are a *LOL dude*. How many of you inside your head?

They flew over one specific area that was being pounded by UA drones.

RU anti-air was in full throttle.

The anti-air shot was design for drones, not an airplane; this, explaining low impacts.

I will not ask you what incentive RU had to shut down this airplane, you sound a bit off.

P.S. - I's like you to study US-UA from 2010, US Biolabs P3-P4, US Biofarms biological warfare, UA and its 150+ pharmaceutical manufacturers, 1 BL USAID going to a UA "army general" for the build of US cruise missiles launch pads, BURISMA HOLDING seneca-rosemont, Devon Archer, who worked with Hunter Biden at Rosemont Seneca partners, which is half owned by Rosemont Capital, a private equity firm founded by Archer and Christopher Heinz, Igor Pasternak sponsoring Schiff, Pelosi, these two as well as Kerry, Biden, Romney ++ have stakes in energy in Ukraine taxing RU gas going to Germany, the firing of UA prosecutor general Viktor Shokin, Kivi printemps 2014 FBI International / CIA / Marines (Poland based) .

Otherwise, would you please STFUP or, move to the front!?

[Questner]

As quoted from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs:

On negotiations to resolve the Ukrainian conflict:

We have always been and remain ready for negotiations. I would like to particularly emphasize that we can only talk about reliable, legally binding agreements that should eliminate the root causes of the conflict and which should include a mechanism to make it impossible to violate them.

On Trump's Ukraine Peace Initiative:

Judging by numerous leaks and Donald Trump's interview with Time magazine on December 12, he is talking about freezing military actions along the line of combat contact and transferring further responsibility for the confrontation with Russia to the Europeans. Of course, we are not satisfied with the proposals made by representatives of the president-elect's team to postpone Ukraine's membership in NATO for 20 years, as well as to introduce a peacekeeping contingent of British and European forces into Ukraine.

About the Ukrainian peace summit:

In October, meetings were held in preparation for the second peace summit. They want to invite Russia to it, as we understand, in order to present us with some kind of ultimatum. I have explained many times that we are not going to take part in the peace summit, even if we receive an invitation.

Ensuring Ukraine's non-aligned status remains the goal of the special military operation (SMO), which will be achieved.

[Xpartan]

You are a *LOL dude*. How many of you inside your head?

They flew over one specific area that was being pounded by UA drones.

RU anti-air was in full throttle.

The anti-air shot was design for drones, not an airplane; this, explaining low impacts.

I will not ask you what incentive RU had to shut down this airplane, you sound a bit off.

P.S. - I's like you to study US-UA from 2010, US Biolabs P3-P4, US Biofarms biological warfare, UA and its 150+ pharmaceutical manufacturers, 1 BL USAID going to a UA "army general" for the build of US cruise missiles launch pads, BURISMA HOLDING seneca-rosemont, Devon Archer, who worked with Hunter Biden at Rosemont Seneca partners, which is half owned by Rosemont Capital, a private equity firm founded by Archer and Christopher Heinz, Igor Pasternak sponsoring Schiff, Pelosi, these two as well as Kerry, Biden, Romney ++ have stakes in energy in Ukraine taxing RU gas going to Germany, the firing of UA prosecutor general Viktor Shokin, Kivi printemps 2014 FBI International / CIA / Marines (Poland based) .

Otherwise, would you please STFUP or, move to the front!?Thank you, Igor#2 for your exemplary illustration of Putin's brilliant propaganda mix-it-all-up cocktail technics. I hope your information-war efforts will be noted by your superiors, so that you can replace Igor#1 on this uber-important forum. Quite honestly, your colleague here has become too boring and predictable, and it's about time they invest in some fresh blood. Welcome!

[John Clayton]

...We have always been and remain ready for negotiations. I would like to particularly emphasize that we can only talk about reliable, legally binding agreements that should eliminate the root causes of the conflict and which should include a mechanism to make it impossible to violate them...
This forum has been too quiet. I thought maybe the disinformation trolls had finally given up, but I guess not. Irony is not dead.

[Questner]

A pre-New Year exchange of prisoners of war took place between Russia and Ukraine on a 150-to-150 basis.

Traditionally, the exchange was mediated by the UAE; the returned Russian servicemen are currently in the Republic of Belarus, from where they will be delivered home.

The prisoner exchange was the 11th in 2024. A total of 189 people returned to Ukraine as reported by Ukrainian sources.

Wish the next year brings a peace treaty. I can't reconcile the positions of the parties. Unless the US by some reason abandons the Ukrainian project in pursuit of a more profitable one I remain pessimistic.

Happy New Year 2025!

[Tiny 12]

A pre-New Year exchange of prisoners of war took place between Russia and Ukraine on a 150-to-150 basis.

Traditionally, the exchange was mediated by the UAE; the returned Russian servicemen are currently in the Republic of Belarus, from where they will be delivered home.

The prisoner exchange was the 11th in 2024. A total of 189 people returned to Ukraine as reported by Ukrainian sources.

Wish the next year brings a peace treaty. I can't reconcile the positions of the parties. Unless the US by some reason abandons the Ukrainian project in pursuit of a more profitable one I remain pessimistic.

Happy New Year 2025!That's good news! I hope it is indeed a start that will lead to a peace treaty. The most "profitable" pursuit for every party involved, including the USA, would be to help bring an end to the war, and I think the incoming US administration (i.e. Trump) realizes that.

[Blood Red]

The Russians took Kurakhove.

Meanwhile, the illegal President of Ukraine will probably lower the conscription age to 18.

Hope Trump puts an end to this shit ASAP but I am not 100% hopeful considering the picks in his cabinet.

[KeviKev68]

The Russians took Kurakhove.

Meanwhile, the illegal President of Ukraine will probably lower the conscription age to 18.

Hope Trump puts an end to this shit ASAP but I am not 100% hopeful considering the picks in his cabinet.Since when was the wants of the commie Russian "President" (they don't have real elections there) was in the interests of America?

[Questner]

In Russia no prognosis has been made for 2025, only plans. Here below in a quote a prognosis from Ukraine for 2025:

The atmosphere in which Ukraine is celebrating the new year 2025 is strikingly different from the situation in both December 2022 and December 2023.

December 2022 was a time when the Ukrainian Armed Forces had just recently achieved major successes – Kherson and almost the entire Kharkiv region were liberated. The country lived in anticipation of the coming counteroffensive and imminent victory.

December 2023 was marked by disappointment, fatigue, anxiety and uncertainty. The counteroffensive had failed, the Russian army had seized the initiative at the front. Hopes for turmoil and destabilization in Russia had also gone up in smoke with the failure of Prigozhin's rebellion. It was becoming clear that there would be no quick victory, the war was dragging on, its outcome was unclear, and the casualties could be very high.

The year 2024 has brought even more difficulties and problems to Ukraine. However, this December is marked by new hope. But hope no longer for victory by reaching the 1991 borders (Zelensky has already acknowledged the impossibility of achieving this by military means), but for a quick end to the war and peace. It appeared after Trump's victory in the US presidential election. Since he has repeatedly repeated (and repeats) that he intends to end the war as soon as possible.

Will this work out? This is the main question that we will discuss today in our forecast for the coming year.

1. The situation at the front: Russia has seized the initiative and the Kursk phenomenon:

The situation at the front in 2024 was characterized by the transfer of the initiative to Russia. The Russian army advanced all year along almost the entire front line. The exception was the Kursk region. However, even there the breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was stopped quite quickly, did not reach the supposed main goal (the Kursk NPP) and now the Russians are gradually recapturing the territory.

Neither before nor after were the Ukrainian Armed Forces able to repeat the Kursk breakthrough, although they tried (they attacked the Belgorod region, and the Bryansk region, as well as the Kursk region in other places, but without success).

In other areas, the Russians made progress, accelerated, among other things, by the transfer of some of the most combat-ready units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the Kursk region.

The most significant advance was in the Pokrovsk-Kurakhov area, where the Russian army conducted its strategic operation to push the front line away from Donetsk and Mariupol with counterattacks from the north and south. We wrote back in early August that this was exactly the plan the Russians had in this direction, and our forecast came true almost entirely.

The Pokrovsk-Kurakhovo operation of Russian troops is also the creation of a bridgehead for a further offensive on the Dnieper and Zaporozhye, entering the rear of the main lines of defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, located on the southern front along the line "Vremyevsk salient. Gulyaipole - Orekhov. Kamenskoye". It is unknown, however, whether the Russian army has enough reserves for such a large-scale offensive, but a potential strike by the Russian Armed Forces from Kurakhovo, Pokrovsk, Selidovo and Velyka Novoselovka in the direction of Zaporozhye and the Dnieper is currently the greatest threat to the Ukrainian army.

2. Reasons for Russia's success:

There are three main reasons for the success of Russians.

The first is the improvement in the quality of combat management and combat capability of Russian troops, their advantage in weapons (primarily gliding bombs), and also the advantage in drones that began to appear by the end of the year.

The second is the increase in the number of Russian troops in Ukraine while the number of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is decreasing. This point is very important, as it makes senseless numerous discussions about the ratio of losses, the rate of mobilization, etc. The dynamics of the number of troops on the battlefield is an integrated indicator that takes into account all the above variables. And the fact that there are more Russians at the front, and fewer Ukrainians, since the rate of mobilization does not cover the current losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, is confirmed both officially and unofficially by both sides.

The third is the decline in discipline and morale of the Ukrainian troops due to unclear prospects for a protracted war, the lack of major victories, and the death of a large number of ideological and motivated volunteers and their replacement by low-motivated "busified" recruits. Hence the increase in the number of AWOLs and cases of refusal to carry out orders in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (we wrote about this in more detail here).

3. The main indicators of the situation at the front:

There are two opposing assessments regarding the future prospects. According to one, the Ukrainian army is moving towards rapid collapse, depletion of reserves and collapse of defense. According to the second, nothing critical is happening for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Ukrainian army is accumulating reserves (moreover, a number of Russian military bloggers believe that Ukraine may use them for an offensive in the near future), and the Russian Federation's reserves are quickly depleted and, soon, the Russian offensive will begin to stall and stop.

It is impossible to say exactly which of these versions is correct due to a lack of information.

However, it is possible to identify several indicators that will indicate that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are critically losing their combat capability and their reserves are exhausted.

The first is the expulsion of Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region, control over the bridgehead in which is of great political importance to the Ukrainian authorities, and if there are not enough forces to hold it, this will be evidence that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a very serious shortage of reserves even for priority areas.

The second is the breakthrough of Russian troops to Kharkov, to stop the Russian advance to which serious forces of Ukrainian troops were sent in the spring and summer of this year, and if they are unable to hold the defense, this will also be evidence of the depletion of reserves.

Third – Dnieper and Zaporozhye. A breakthrough to them by Russian troops will mean a disaster for the logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the entire southern front and a significant part of the eastern one. And if the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have enough reserves to protect this direction, this means that events will develop according to the worst-case scenario for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Fourth – the creation by the Russians of a bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper – in the Kherson area and / or in the Dnieper and Zaporozhye area (if the Russian Federation is able to capture these cities). This will create a potential threat of an offensive by the Russian army in the direction of Transnistria, cutting off Ukraine from the sea. If the Ukrainian Armed Forces are unable to prevent it, this will be evidence of a critical decline in the combat capability of the Ukrainian troops.

Fifth, the breakthrough of Russian troops to Kyiv, which will create the threat of a complete military defeat of Ukraine.

But none of this is happening yet.

The Ukrainian army is retreating with fighting in the Donetsk region, but the front is not collapsing, the combat capability and controllability of the Ukrainian troops is maintained, critical supply lines of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not been cut off, and Russian troops have not approached the largest Ukrainian cities.

Of course, the problems that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have have a cumulative effect and when there are too many of them, the front may collapse "in one moment". But we also cannot rule out another option, that the Russian army will sooner or later exhaust its reserves in the offensive and stop before reaching strategically important lines.

4. Ukraine's Strategy for 2025 with Trump Adjustments:

The latter assumption underlies Kyiv's basic war strategy.

The Ukrainian military-political leadership assumes that the Russian army will soon exhaust its offensive potential, without advancing anywhere except Donbass, Ukraine will accumulate forces, make a breakthrough in the creation of robotic systems, as well as long-range missiles that can reach Moscow, and somehow solve the problems with replenishing the army (for example, by lowering the age of mobilization to 18 years). After which it will be able to seize the initiative at the front.

Russia, as Kyiv believes, will be forced to declare mobilization in such a situation, which, according to the calculations of the Ukrainian authorities, should lead to internal upheavals in the Russian Federation. Plus, as before, Kiev has hope for the growth of Russia's socio-economic problems due to the effect of sanctions, as well as the growth of interethnic and interreligious contradictions within the Russian Federation. First of all, between Russians and Muslims.

Based on this, the Ukrainian authorities, as well as the Western "war party", are against the earliest possible end to the war along the front line, believing that time is on the side of Ukraine's victory, which, however, is no longer understood as reaching the 1991 borders (although this goal is not completely removed as a maximum task), but rather forcing the Russian Federation to agree to Ukraine's membership in NATO and the presence of Western troops on Ukrainian territory. Kiev understands that Moscow will not agree to such conditions now, and therefore the Ukrainian authorities are against negotiations at this stage (as Yermak directly states). But they believe that in the future the Kremlin's positions on the front will weaken and it will be forced to accept Ukraine's conditions (moreover, rumors are spreading that in the near future, in order to prove the correctness of this thesis, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will attempt an offensive on one of the sections of the front).

But this is an assessment by the Ukrainian authorities, which, naturally, may be fundamentally wrong, just as it turned out to be wrong in 2023, when there were expectations of a quick victory after the counteroffensive, or in 2022, when everyone expected the Russian economy to collapse under the weight of sanctions.

In addition, not everyone inside Ukraine believes that the Ukrainian government's strategy is correct. Both in military and political circles, the opinion is increasingly widespread that betting on a "long war" is primarily destructive for Ukraine itself, since it is being exhausted much faster than Russia. And time is working against Kyiv, especially given the political turbulence in the West and the unclear prospects for further aid to Ukraine. According to this point of view, if there is an opportunity to end the war in the near future, it should be ended along the front line and even without guarantees of joining NATO. Because the conditions of peace could be much worse for Ukraine in the future.

But, let us repeat, the position of the Ukrainian authorities is different. Bankova believes that time is on Ukraine's side, and therefore there is no need to negotiate now.

Therefore, many actions of the Ukrainian government and the Western "war party" (we will talk about it in more detail a little later) are aimed at disrupting or making negotiations with Russia as difficult as possible. Hence the permission to strike with long-range missiles, and the attempt to insist on inviting Ukraine to NATO, and the murders of high-ranking Russian officials in Moscow, and much more.

However, it is important to note that Kyiv can only adhere to such a strategy as long as the main position in the US and the West is that of the "war party. ".

If, despite all the efforts of the "hawks", the concept is approved in Washington that the war must be ended as quickly as possible along the front line or on other compromise terms with Russia (and this is what Trump is currently promoting), then Kyiv will not be able to resist it and will be forced to submit to the new American strategy, since it will not be able to continue the war without the support of the West.

And then everything will depend on whether the US can reach an agreement with the Russian Federation on the conditions for ending the war.

The question of how, when and under what conditions the war will end is also decisive for the issues of Ukraine's domestic politics – will there be elections, will Zelensky be able to stay in power.

5. Russia's first possible strategy is to force Ukraine and the West to Putin's conditions:

If the strategy of the Ukrainian government is, in general, clear ("keep fighting, but if Washington says not to fight, then negotiate" then there are two versions regarding Russia's strategy.

The first of them comes from a literal understanding of the Kremlin's official statements about the immutability of Putin's June conditions. The transfer of the entire territory of four regions to the Russian Federation's control, the lifting of sanctions, the limitation of the number and armament of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, "denazification" in Ukraine's domestic policy, the lifting of sanctions, the conclusion of a full-fledged peace treaty with the fixation of new borders as internationally recognized. And without fulfilling all these requirements, as well as without the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region, Putin will not stop the war. Also, in the expert circles near the Kremlin, there is an assumption that one of Putin's main goals is the "reboot" of Ukrainian statehood, so as not to have problems with Kiev in the future. Political scientists close to the Russian government are publishing scenarios according to which Ukraine, after the end of the war, will be divided into two parts in the territories remaining under Kyiv's control. Into central Ukraine. A formally independent state loyal and controlled by Moscow, and into western Ukraine, where it is supposed to oust anti-Russian "nationalist elements". Plus, there is the removal from power of Zelensky, whose "illegitimacy" is constantly discussed in Moscow.

It should be noted that Ukraine can accept these conditions only in three cases.

The first is if the West forces it to do so through the most severe pressure and threats.

Secondly, if the Ukrainian Armed Forces are completely defeated or find themselves on the brink of imminent defeat.

Thirdly, if Russia can "turn off" Ukrainian energy for a long time and thereby make the functioning of the economy and, in general, the life of people on the territory of Ukraine impossible while the war is ongoing.

There are no signs yet of the West's readiness to put pressure on Kyiv to fulfill Putin's demands. Although even if such coercion were to follow, it is far from guaranteed that the Ukrainian authorities would humbly agree to fulfill all the demands, rather than continue to resist. Because it is one thing to comply with Western pressure to stop the war along the front line (especially since many in Ukraine are also in favor of this). And it is quite another to actually agree to hand over control of the entire country or most of it to Russia.

The second and third conditions have also not been realized and it is not a fact that they can be realized in the foreseeable future.

However, the Kremlin may believe that time is on its side, and therefore there is no need to rush to end the war and make any compromises with Trump and Ukraine, since the situation at the front will continue to worsen for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, energy will gradually be destroyed, and therefore, sooner or later, Ukraine and the West will be forced to comply with Putin's conditions. Moreover, perhaps even tougher ones, in comparison with the June version.

In general, this is the scenario of "long will", which Arestovich often likes to talk about as Putin's main "secret weapon" - to go year after year, despite the sacrifices and difficulties, to the intended goal. As it happened, in its time, with Chechnya. When from the beginning of the Second Chechen War to the moment of its final "pacification" and subordination, 6-7 years passed.

6. Russia's second possible strategy is to stop the war along the front lines:

The second point of view states that the Kremlin is much more cautious in assessing the prospects of the Russian Federation in a long war, and understands the great risks it carries, including the need to implement measures that the Russian authorities do not want to take (for example, mobilization). Therefore, according to this version, Putin is actually set on a speedy and compromise end to the war. Stopping the war along the front line (provided that Ukrainian troops are withdrawn from the Kursk region), and a neutral status for Ukraine. Plus, the fulfillment of some other conditions (for example, the lifting of sanctions, some changes in Ukraine's domestic policy).

Western media, citing sources, write from time to time that Russia's position may be more flexible than officially stated. Moscow's rather restrained reaction to Western long-range strikes on Russia also points to this. A number of observers perceive this as Moscow's desire to take a break until Trump comes to power and not close the door on the possibility of reaching an agreement with him.

In general, it is obvious that there are different points of view in the Russian elites on the issue of the further continuation of the war and the attitude towards the prospect of its quickest stop. Some are in favor of a war to a victorious end. Others consider the war in Ukraine a grand trap that Russia has fallen into. And if it is possible to get out of it relatively painlessly and on favorable terms for the Russian Federation (fixing the gains in Ukraine and its neutral status), then this will already be a grand Russian victory.

And the outcome of the negotiations, if they are initiated by Trump, will largely depend on the position that the Russian Federation takes.

Perhaps the Kremlin really believes that time is on its side and will therefore refuse to compromise, continuing the war. And here the whole question is how soberly the Russian authorities assess the prospects at the front, in the economy and in terms of maintaining stability within the country.

If the assessment of the prospects for the imminent collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense and the strength of the Russian economy turns out to be wrong, this could have far-reaching negative consequences for Russia. Including causing a deterioration in Moscow's position in the world, especially among the countries of the global south (because the Russian Federation will look like a state that, under some pretexts incomprehensible to the international community, refused the offer to end the war, essentially taking responsibility for further bloodshed, although China has long been calling for the war to end), the positions of those forces in the West that advocate compromises with Moscow will sharply weaken, since the Kremlin will show that it is not ready to compromise at all. This could also cause strong internal tension in Russian society due to the understanding that the war will last a long time and the authorities do not want to stop it. This tension will be especially aggravated if a new wave of mobilization has to be declared.

However, let us repeat, in order for the Kremlin to accept or reject peace proposals, these peace proposals must come. Come from Trump. And therefore, it is his position that will be decisive.

7. Trump's Decisive Choice:

Despite repeated statements by Trump and his associates about their intention to end the war in Ukraine in a short time, this option is far from certain.

It is not even predetermined that Trump will put forward peace proposals that would be at all acceptable to the Russian Federation as at least a start for a conversation.

The policy of the West, and the United States in particular, has been determined in the last three years by the "war party", which believes that the war in Ukraine is a grand trap for Moscow and a unique opportunity to weaken and exhaust Russia.

And therefore this "party" is categorically against stopping the war in the near future, since this will nullify all previous efforts and, in its understanding, will allow Putin to slip out of the trap into which he has been drawn for many years. And even to slip out on de facto "victorious" terms, keeping the captured territories and removing the question of Ukraine's entry into NATO.

As arguments for continuing the war, this "party" uses the above-mentioned theses about the imminent "collapse of the Russian Federation" under the weight of military and domestic problems, convincing Trump not to offer Putin compromise options for peace, but to continue fighting. In particular, there are many supporters of this point of view within the Republicans. However, the "war party" is very strong at almost all levels of Western policy management. It was this party that laid the strategic line of action for the West in relation to Ukraine and Russia. And it will be extremely difficult for Trump to reverse this course.

Although it is possible.

The arguments of the "party of peace" are also well known. Time is not working for Ukraine, conditions will be even worse. The West itself is in a systemic crisis caused by deindustrialization, the decline in competitiveness of its economy, and the huge emission of dollars and euros. In such conditions, it is extremely problematic to continue increasing military spending by getting involved in a war, since it is fraught with either hyperinflation or a sharp reduction in social spending and the actual dismantling of the welfare state in the West (and along with this, the dismantling of democracy, since, understandably, no one will vote for such changes in the elections).

Finally, the threat of nuclear war hangs like the sword of Damocles. All this provides arguments to those forces in the West that call for a speedy ceasefire in Ukraine.

In addition, the most important factor that plays against the "war party" in the West is the failure of its strategy for the war in Ukraine. Initially, it assumed that Western sanctions would destroy the Russian economy and Putin's regime would quickly collapse. After this did not happen, the thesis began to be promoted that the Russian army was extremely weak and would be defeated by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and, in parallel, the theory was promoted that in Russia, against the backdrop of defeats, unrest would inevitably begin.

However, these two theses were also nullified in 2023, when the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces ended in failure, and Prigozhin's mutiny failed. Therefore, when the "war party" now promotes the theme that "we need to wait a little longer and Russia is about to collapse", trust in this in the West has been seriously undermined. And the proposals of some representatives of the "war party" to turn the situation around by sending European troops to Ukraine or through other forms of deeper NATO involvement in the war only scare off both Western elites and societies, setting them in favor of a speedy end to the war in order to avoid such a prospect. In general, the West is experiencing disappointment, fatigue, anxiety, as well as a decline in belligerence after the collapse of previous strategies on Ukraine and Russia. And this is also the most important factor that works in favor of the "peace party".

Moreover, the position of the "war party" was based on a deep contradiction from the very beginning. Namely, the desire, on the one hand, to harshly punish Russia for invading Ukraine with fatal consequences for Putin's government. On the other hand, the unwillingness to enter into a direct war with it due to the fear of a nuclear conflict and the bet that the tasks would be carried out by the Ukrainian Armed Forces alone. Although the difference in potential between Ukraine and Russia made such a bet, to put it mildly, very risky. Moreover, as it turned out during the war, the West was afraid to bring Russia even to the brink of defeat, due to the same threat of a nuclear war. Western media have repeatedly written that back in the fall of 2022, Washington came to the conclusion that if the Russian authorities consider that they are facing military defeat, they can use nuclear weapons. And the desire to prevent this largely determined Washington's behavior regarding the war in Ukraine. Including, regarding assistance to Kyiv, which was provided to the extent that it allowed to prevent the collapse of the front. But in order not to cross the line beyond which a landslide escalation could begin (the so-called strategy of "war on slow fire".

As for the statements about the threat of an attack by the Russian Federation on NATO countries, few people in the West believe that, having fought for weeks and months for one village in Donbas, the Russian army is ready to attack NATO countries that are totally superior to the Russian Federation in military terms. At least as long as the US is a member of NATO.

8. Showdowns within the Republican Party:

The situation within the US Republican Party will play a very important role in the course of events.

There is already a struggle between the "old guard" that generally wants to continue the previous course on Ukraine and elsewhere. And Trump's team, including Elon Musk and others, who want to sharply reshuffle the elite and carry out a radical reform of the state apparatus. And also, what is important, to redistribute financial flows, taking money from traditional military budget contractors like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Boeing and their lobbyists (the main ones of which are the same "old guard" of the Republican Party), and transferring it to a new crop of high-tech companies.

This group also has a completely different view than the establishment on the war in Ukraine and on relations with Russia. This struggle will determine America's course, and therefore the situation in the world.

9. The Impact of Trump's Relations with China and Europe:

It will also be of great importance how Trump builds relations with Europe and China. Confrontational notes are heard from Washington in both directions. And if Trump really gets into a clinch with the Europeans and the Chinese, then this could increase the importance of relations with the Russian Federation for both the EU and China and, consequently, seriously change the attitude of the Europeans to the topic of supporting Kyiv. And China. To the topic of supporting Russia in the war. Moreover, in both directions. Not in favor of Ukraine.

If the confrontation between the US and the EU results in a rupture of their military-political ties and the actual withdrawal of America from NATO, then this will radically change the entire security situation in Europe, giving Russia and China the opportunity to start their game in the European direction, pulling a significant part of the EU countries to their side.

However, the break between the US and Europe is far from predetermined. It is advantageous for the Americans to maintain influence on the EU and on this basis they can come to compromises on various contentious issues.

10. Will Trump and Putin "divide the world"?

One can often come across the point of view that the main issue in the negotiations between the US and Russia will not even be Ukraine, but a new security system in Europe or even the "distribution of zones of influence in the world", as well as issues of Russia's relations with China (according to the widespread version, Trump wants to pull Moscow away from Beijing).

This is certainly an important point that can affect a lot.

On the one hand, such "mega-exchanges" seem unrealistic.

Firstly, Ukraine itself is not of such serious interest to the US that it would enter into any global "deals" with the Russian Federation for its sake. By and large, none of the scenarios for the development of events in Ukraine (including the complete defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the capitulation of Kyiv) are critically bad for Washington. After all, the Americans experienced the loss of Afghanistan quite painlessly. Ukraine is not Mexico or Canada, the situation in which directly affects the US. And not even the Middle East, the situation in which is important for America, since the price of oil is determined there. No global processes or markets critically depend on the situation in Ukraine.

Secondly, as for Trump's attempts to pull Russia away from China, the US will not be able to offer Moscow anything in return. Trump himself has set his sights on the European energy market, which could replace the Chinese market for the Russians, demanding that the Europeans buy more American oil and gas.

On the other hand, American media have often written that there has been a behind-the-scenes dialogue between Trump and Putin for a long time.

In addition, Trump's openly demonstrated desire to ease America's "burden" on security in Europe (in order to shift more attention to China), as well as to minimize the likelihood of a direct US war with Russia (due to the threat of it escalating into a nuclear war) may prompt the new administration in Washington to certain agreements with Putin. For example, on freezing NATO expansion to the east and curtailing US activity in the post-Soviet space.

But, let us repeat, all these agreements come down to the question of the price that each side can set for its willingness to meet each other halfway.

11. Scenarios-2025. Inertia or breakthrough:

When analyzing the possible scenarios under which events may develop, it is necessary to distinguish between two basic options.

First, the war will continue in its current format and the situation on the front will not change fundamentally (the Russians will slowly advance, but without strategic breakthroughs, and perhaps even stop over time).

The second is that the situation at the front will change dramatically in favor of Ukraine or Russia. This is possible either in the event of the beginning of internal processes of collapse of the state apparatus and the army of one of the warring countries. Or in the event that one of the armies makes a sharp leap in combat technologies, and its opponent does not keep up with it. For example, in terms of the use of robotic systems and artificial intelligence. However, the experience of the previous almost three years of war shows that neither side, even if it broke ahead at some point in terms of innovation, can hold the palm for a long time, since the opponent very quickly adopts know-how. This is explained by the approximate equality of potentials. The West provides assistance to Ukraine. And indirectly, China, the technological and industrial world champion, provides assistance to Russia. In addition, both Ukraine and the Russian Federation are actively developing their own military technologies and production.

If the situation on the front changes dramatically, it will bring one of the parties (in whose favor it has changed) closer to realizing its maximum objectives. For Russia, this is the fulfillment of Putin's June conditions (possibly in an even more stringent format) and the "reset" of the Ukrainian state. For Kyiv, this is the consent of the Russian Federation to Ukraine's membership in NATO and the return of at least part of the captured territories.

12. Scenarios-2025. The Great Compromise Option:

If the war continues more or less in its current format (inertial scenario), then there are two options.

The first is ending the war on compromise terms. In this case, the most realistic scenario is "armed neutrality" of Ukraine. That is, the war stops along the front line, Ukraine does not join NATO (but joins the European Union), and foreign troops are not brought into the country. But at the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not reduced. The absence of restrictions for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is, in fact, the main "red line" for Ukraine and the only real guarantee that the Russian Federation will not attack again (in conditions when the West is not ready to accept Ukraine into NATO, or send its troops as peacekeepers without Moscow's consent, or assume any obligations that imply entering a war against the Russian Federation in the event of its new invasion of Ukraine). Other conditions. Domestic policy issues (language, church), sanctions against the Russian Federation, etc. - can be discussed. As well as the form of fixing the agreements. A truce or a full-fledged peace treaty (Russia demands the conclusion of the latter, and although Ukraine de facto opposes it, this option is not 100% excluded, since it gives both parties additional guarantees that the war will not resume in the near future, and the "suspended" post-war situation is much more dangerous for Ukraine than for Russia, since few will invest money in the country, knowing that a new war with its largest neighbor can start at any moment). As for the bridgehead in the Kursk region, then, under any version of compromise peace agreements, Ukraine will most likely have to leave it. They often talk about Kyiv's desire to exchange this bridgehead for some part of the Ukrainian territories captured by Russia (for example, Energodar and Zaporizhzhya NPP), but given the current situation on the front, this is unrealistic. The bridgehead in the Kursk region is small. Russia has already returned part of it and the Russian army has the military capabilities to take it completely. It is only a question of time. Therefore, Putin is unlikely to agree to exchange for something that he can get back without any agreements.

As for relations between Ukraine and Russia after the end of the war, it is now widely believed that they will be chronically hostile. Like between South and North Korea after the Korean War. However, the experience of Georgia, which also fought with the Russian Federation and lost territory, and has now effectively restored relations with Moscow, shows that there may be different options. Although it took a lot of time for this. 16 years have passed since the 2008 war in Georgia.

13. Scenario 2025: Long War and Risks for Ukraine:

If we imagine that the peace talks will not end in anything (or even begin), while there will be no fundamental changes on the front in favor of one of the parties, and Western aid to Ukraine will continue in one volume or another (the option in which both the US and Europe immediately and completely stop supporting Ukraine is unrealistic), then the war will become "long-term".

Ukraine will be forced to lower the age of mobilization. Russia will most likely announce a new wave of mobilization. Casualties will increase, and the risks of a long war for both sides are enormous.

First of all, of course, they are huge for Ukraine. The mobilization potential is exhausted, as is the resilience of society and the army. Which is already visible now through mass evasion of service, escapes abroad and an increase in the number of AWOLs. The longer the war goes on, the stronger the apathy, the more people leave the country, the more the infrastructure is destroyed, the more cities are turned into ruins, the less habitable the country becomes, the deeper the hole of demographic and social catastrophe.

There is also a big question whether Ukraine can strategically win the war at all, since Russia, possessing nuclear weapons, can use them if it finds itself on the brink of defeat.

The biggest risk for Ukraine is its dependence on foreign support. The West is now entering a state of political turbulence, which is superimposed on economic difficulties. It is obvious that the global West will change. The situation both within the US and within the EU, as well as in relations between America and Europe, is in a zone of extreme uncertainty.

And no one can say whether, under these conditions, support for Ukraine will be maintained in the long term.

There are constant calls from the Trump camp to cut or stop aid to Kyiv. And if this happens while the war continues, it will be the worst-case scenario for Ukraine.

Also worth noting is Trump's expansionist rhetoric regarding claims to Greenland and the Panama Canal.

The basis of Ukraine's position in the current war is the principle of inviolability of borders and territorial integrity. However, if this principle begins to be violated everywhere (and especially if the US sets an example in this), and constant interventions and annexations of territories become a common occurrence, then the situation with the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of part of its territory will become just one of many cases, which will significantly weaken attention to it and, accordingly, may affect the West's readiness to continue supporting Ukraine and putting pressure on Russia with sanctions. Not to mention the attitude of other countries of the world to the war.

Moreover, the question will be heard ever louder: if the US, guided by its own understanding of its national interests, wants to seize Greenland or the territory of the Panama Canal, then why can't Russia do the same with respect to Ukraine?

For Kyiv, in the current war, such a possible change in the global agenda is a potential threat of enormous proportions.

14. Scenario 2025: A Long War and Risks for Russia:

But Russia also faces very high risks of a long war.

The country is under sanctions pressure. Dependent on economic relations with countries of the global south such as China and India. Russia is also suffering heavy losses in the war. The announcement of mobilization could lead to very strong internal tension.

War constantly produces "black swans" like the recent crash of an Azerbaijani plane after a Russian air defense strike, which will suddenly create a whole range of problems.

War exacerbates all possible problems. For example, labor migration. Mobilization and recruitment of hundreds of thousands of men into the army under contract, the departure of hundreds of thousands more abroad created a very large labor shortage with high demand for it. The only way to quickly cover this shortage during the war is to attract labor migrants. And if mobilization is declared, and the war becomes long, then there will be even more migrants, and the problem will become even more acute. Even though the increase in the number of migrants is already causing tension in society.

It is also worth remembering that not long ago there was a major internal upheaval in the Russian Federation, which the authorities "slept through" - Prigozhin's mutiny. Prigozhin was promoted by a large number of Z-publics, spreading treason about the situation in the army and in the country. After the failure of the mutiny, the degree of "betrayal" in Z-publics dropped significantly, but not completely. This year, the problem again manifested itself through the spread of panic and hysteria in Z-channels around the situation in the Kursk region.

In general, this group continues to fuel all existing contradictions within the Russian Federation – between the people and the government / officials, between the rich and the poor, between those at the front and those in the rear, between Russians and Muslims, between locals and migrants, between soldiers and commanders.

Most actively, recently, it works in terms of incitement on interethnic grounds. Formally, this is presented as a fight against migration (given that this group is against ending the war, although it is the war that exacerbates the problem of migration to the greatest extent), but often comes down to inciting confrontation between Russians and Muslims. And this is an extremely dangerous topic for Russia, which can explode the situation inside the country and the army.

It is also obvious that this group enjoys the patronage of a part of the Russian leadership and special services, otherwise it would not be able to disperse "betrayal" with impunity. It is not entirely clear for what purpose this is being done. Either simply in the format of a "struggle between the Kremlin towers" for control over financial flows and influence. Or with the aim of removing Putin from power (possibly in cooperation with the West). And if the latter goal really exists, then a long war is a convenient tool for achieving it, since it exacerbates internal problems.

For now, however, the Russian state apparatus quickly suppresses any attempts at destabilization. In recent years, Moscow has been able to work on its mistakes. The economy has demonstrated very strong stability, the state system. The ability to keep the situation in the country under control. The army. To seize the initiative at the front.

And against this background, many in the Russian Federation now have euphoria and the feeling that "the final victory is already close. ".

But there was the same (and even greater) euphoria on the eve of the invasion of Ukraine and in its first days. And then it turned out that the calculation was fundamentally wrong. They did not take into account many things.

Therefore, even now, for Russia, we repeat, the key question is whether it is worth striving for maximalist goals, or whether it is more correct to record the achieved result, end the war, nullify the risks associated with it, free up resources for the development and strengthening of the state, as well as for more active work in other, more promising, geopolitical areas such as the Middle East and Africa.

In general, for both countries, a long war is a huge risk that could call into question the very existence of the two states.

15. Scenario 2025: "Red Lines", Nuclear Weapons and Risks for Peace:

But the war also poses a threat to the entire world, given that the country with the largest nuclear arsenal is participating in it. Especially since Moscow constantly hints that the war could go nuclear.

True, these hints have been coming for a long time, as have statements from the Russian Federation about the inadmissibility of crossing "red lines". And therefore many people are already skeptical about them. As if they were just words that you don't need to pay any attention to.

It is also obvious that for Russia the use of nuclear weapons is a very difficult decision with its own risks (the threat of complete international isolation or the inclusion of NATO in the war with the threat of a nuclear strike on Russia itself).

But Moscow may indeed have real "red lines" that, if crossed, it will be ready to use nuclear weapons or issue an ultimatum with a threat to use them. Such a "red line" is any situation that could lead to the defeat of the Russian Federation in a war.

And these, naturally, are not long-range strikes against the Russian Federation, the Kremlin's threats against which were to a greater extent an information campaign to actualize in Western society the fear of a nuclear war with the Russian Federation (and, in many ways, this campaign fulfilled its task).

The real "red lines" are different.

This could be the entry of NATO countries into the war in one form or another (sending troops to Ukraine, attacking Russian territory, declaring a no-fly zone over Ukraine, etc.), which would radically change the balance of power in the war not in favor of the Russian Federation.

This could be a naval blockade of Russian ports, which would paralyze Russian exports and put the Russian economy on the brink of collapse (by the way, the topic of a blockade of Russian shipping is already being discussed in the West).

Finally, this could be a situation of protracted war, in which Russia will gradually be exhausted, the risks for it will increase, and therefore the Kremlin may decide to cut the Gordian knot with one blow, threatening Ukraine and the West with a nuclear war: "either let's negotiate on our terms, or there will be a nuclear war. " And this is an extremely dangerous prospect, since both sides may hope that the enemy will bluff and, as a result, bring the matter to a nuclear conflict.

Therefore, the continuation of the war creates enormous threats not only for Ukraine and Russia, but for the entire world.

In itself, it became an example of miscalculation on all sides. Russia believed that it could quickly and with a small force take control of all of Ukraine. Ukraine and the West believed that Russia was very weak and would inevitably and quickly collapse if it started a full-scale war. Both calculations turned out to be critically wrong.

It is clear that it is difficult for anyone to admit their mistakes and even more difficult to agree on anything after rivers of spilled blood. But the longer the war goes on, the more it turns into a funnel that draws Ukraine, Russia and the entire world into new dark ages, creating colossal threats for both the warring countries and for all of humanity. And to avoid the worst, the war must end as soon as possible.

[John Clayton]

The Russians took Kurakhove.

Meanwhile, the illegal President of Ukraine will probably lower the conscription age to 18.

Hope Trump puts an end to this shit ASAP but I am not 100% hopeful considering the picks in his cabinet.I thought maybe you'd run out of hot air -- I guess not. How are your rubles doing?

[Xpartan]

The Glorious Imperial Ground Forces have captured 4,000 square kilometers in 2024 at the cost of 100 people per kilometer. Big success!


Russian troops lost more than 420 thousand soldiers in 2024, advancing through the territory of Ukraine and in the Kursk region. At the same time, only 4,168 square kilometers were captured, most of which are fields and small settlements.

Along Data Institute for the Study of War (ISW), on average, Russian troops lost 102 soldiers for every square kilometer of territory they captured. The largest advance occurred between September and November 2024, when 56.5% of all territorial gains were obtained at the cost of 125,800 troops.https://nv.ua/ukraine/events/voyna-rossii-protiv-ukrainy-isw-itogi-goda-2024-itogi-goda-2024-50478323.html

It would take the Imperial Forces 2 years to conquer the rest of Donetsk Oblast under ideal conditions.


Russian forces have seized four mid-sized settlements - Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove - in all of 2024, the largest of which had a pre-war population of just over 31,000 people. Russian forces would require just over two years to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast at their 2024 rates of advance, assuming that all their advances were confined to Donetsk, that they can seize large urban areas as easily as small villages and fields, and that the Ukrainians do not conduct any significant counterattacks in Donetsk.https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-31-2024

I wonder if Russians watch too many movies.


Han Solo: Just wondering what our objective is, lieutenant.
Mimban Lieutenant: Bring peace and prosperity to the galaxy, install a regime loyal to the Emperor and eradicate the hostiles.
Han Solo: It's their planet, we're the hostiles.
Mimban Lieutenant: You got a problem, trooper?
Han Solo: No problem, sir.

[Blood Red]

I thought maybe you'd run out of hot air -- I guess not. How are your rubles doing?Ukraine is winning.

[John Clayton]

Ukraine is winning.It's about Russia losing.

[PaulInZurich]

It's about Russia losing.For me it's about keeping Russia away from the rest of Europe. Ukraine might not regain all its territories, but it's giving Russia a bloody nose, hopefully bloody enough so that Putin doesn't get any smart ideas about the Baltics or Moldova. Eastern European countries owe the Ukrainians a lot.

[Tiny 12]

In Russia no prognosis has been made for 2025, only plans. Here below in a quote a prognosis from Ukraine for 2025:

The atmosphere in which Ukraine is celebrating the new year 2025 is strikingly different from the situation in both December 2022 and December 2023...Another excellent article, thanks again. While occasionally naive (for example, Musk et al may cause the USA Government to replace support of military contractors with support of Tech companies), the writer provides an insightful and informed look into the Ukraine situation from a variety of viewpoints. To fellow board members, it's a long read, but worth it, regardless of your beliefs. I agree wholeheartedly with the concluding statement:

"It is clear that it is difficult for anyone to admit their mistakes and even more difficult to agree on anything after rivers of spilled blood. But the longer the war goes on, the more it turns into a funnel that draws Ukraine, Russia and the entire world into new dark ages, creating colossal threats for both the warring countries and for all of humanity. And to avoid the worst, the war must end as soon as possible. ".

Where did you find this Questner? I can't locate the source with Google.

[Jojosun]

Another excellent article, thanks again. While occasionally naive (for example, Musk et al may cause the USA Government to replace support of military contractors with support of Tech companies), the writer provides an insightful and informed look into the Ukraine situation from a variety of viewpoints. To fellow board members, it's a long read, but worth it, regardless of your beliefs. I agree wholeheartedly with the concluding statement:

"It is clear that it is difficult for anyone to admit their mistakes and even more difficult to agree on anything after rivers of spilled blood. But the longer the war goes on, the more it turns into a funnel that draws Ukraine, Russia and the entire world into new dark ages, creating colossal threats for both the warring countries and for all of humanity. And to avoid the worst, the war must end as soon as possible. ".

Where did you find this Questner? I can't locate the source with Google.Home made by Questner, LOL.

After coming back from my first Mongering trip to Kiev back in 2009 ,I posted in the Kiev thread my feeling that the great mongering destination won't last for a long time! I was thinking about Ukraine joining The EU when all the Beauties would then head west!

Who would have ever thought that UA beauties would leg it out to the west not as a result of joining The EU, But following The Special Operation by Putin! Some operation nearly 3 years on and counting.

[Questner]

Another excellent article, thanks again. While occasionally naive (for example, Musk et al may cause the USA Government to replace support of military contractors with support of Tech companies), the writer provides an insightful and informed look into the Ukraine situation from a variety of viewpoints. To fellow board members, it's a long read, but worth it, regardless of your beliefs. I agree wholeheartedly with the concluding statement:

"It is clear that it is difficult for anyone to admit their mistakes and even more difficult to agree on anything after rivers of spilled blood. But the longer the war goes on, the more it turns into a funnel that draws Ukraine, Russia and the entire world into new dark ages, creating colossal threats for both the warring countries and for all of humanity. And to avoid the worst, the war must end as soon as possible. ".

Where did you find this Questner? I can't locate the source with Google.The forum has rules that do not allow posts in any language other than English. The rules are the rules and have to be followed.

Also my every post has to pass a moderator. Again, the rules have to be followed as lack of moderation can destroy public boards. Even if the moderation is selective, I am only a guest and don't make the rules.

The reasonable way out is to provide a translation from Ukrainian or Russian with some clarifications on the terms that direct translation won't allow.

[Xpartan]

Where did you find this Questner? I can't locate the source with Google.Why do you think that is, Tiny? Why do propacondoms NEVER use attributions? Take a wild guess.

[Blood Red]

For me it's about keeping Russia away from the rest of Europe. Ukraine might not regain all its territories, but it's giving Russia a bloody nose, hopefully bloody enough so that Putin doesn't get any smart ideas about the Baltics or Moldova. Eastern European countries owe the Ukrainians a lot.I'm honestly shocked that some people believe this horseshit, that Russia has territorial interests other than Eastern Ukraine. I guess it has to do will believing western mainstream media propaganda and not having any military experience. For fucks sake, use your brain. Putin, even if he didn't want to, does NOT have an army big enough to go beyond Ukraine's borders.

The Baltic states are NATO members, Einstein. Same for Poland. Putin isn't stupid enough to attack a NATO state.

Moldova is a different case no doubt with the Transnistria status resolved.

[Blood Red]

It's about Russia losing.Well, the only party that is doomed to lose is going to be Ukraine. Get used to it.

Also, why are you even in this thread? You have ZERO understanding of this conflict, other than your hatred and fear of Russia.

[PaulInZurich]

I'm honestly shocked that some people believe this horseshit, that Russia has territorial interests other than Eastern Ukraine. Really, so all the nonsense spewed by Medvedev or Russian TV is just some regular Ivan talking shit while getting drunk on a street in Moscow and doesn't have the OK from Putin? And the occupied parts from Georgia don't count?


Putin, even if he didn't want to, does NOT have an army big enough to go beyond Ukraine's borders.And he learned that only when trying to occupy Kyiv. Zelensky might be a clown, but he didn't run away.


The Baltic states are NATO members, Einstein. Same for Poland. Putin isn't stupid enough to attack a NATO state. Moldova is a different case no doubt with the Transnistria status resolved.Putin is prodding for a long time trying to find out with what he can get away. Murder people in UK or Germany? Is that OK? Endanger public safety due murdering somebody with polonium or nerve agents? Is that OK? Blow up ammunition depots or kill people involved in the weapons business inside Europe? Cutting undersea cables? Who is to say that the next step wouldn't be stirring up unrest in Latvia where there is significant Russian speaking population. You are making my point, your neighbours only feel safe when they are part of NATO because they know you too well from history.

Since when is Russia promising that they withdraw from Transnistria? Let's see, they signed an agreement in 1994 that they will withdraw, well it didn't happen. They signed another one in 1999, with a "firm" date of December 2002, that didn't happen either. Last time I checked it's 2025.

Things like this are why your neighbours don't trust you one kopeck.

[John Clayton]

...Also, why are you even in this thread?...Primarily, to resist paid disinformation and propaganda. I support the cause of democratic liberalism. I want to see a healthy, educated world where there is no armed conflict and international disputes are resolved through legal means.


...You have ZERO understanding of this conflict, other than your hatred and fear of Russia.I had great hopes for the RF after 1992. There was a temporary blossoming of freedom, liberalism and culture, which has been suppressed by Putin's dictatorship. I am an amateur historian and have always had an interest in Russian imperialism, hegemony, territorial aggrandizement and periodic failure. In my opinion, Russia is in a much, much more fragile condition than in either 1917 or 1991. I believe, and I think you know it as well, its failure is inevitable.

[Xpartan]

The forum has rules that do not allow posts in any language other than English. The rules are the rules and have to be followed.

Also my every post has to pass a moderator. Again, the rules have to be followed as lack of moderation can destroy public boards. Even if the moderation is selective, I am only a guest and don't make the rules.

The reasonable way out is to provide a translation from Ukrainian or Russian with some clarifications on the terms that direct translation won't allow.Yeah right, aha. You're so slick and everyone else here is an idiot.

Moderators won't have an issue with a post that links to a URL of the original source. It's not the same as commenting in another language.

[Xpartan]

I'm honestly shocked that some people believe this horseshit, that Russia has territorial interests other than Eastern Ukraine.Come on dude! Snap out of it.

You're serving a bona-fide fascist regime. Very few things can possibly shock you. Nothing, as in nothing at all, can shock you "honestly".

Here is a fact. Kyiv in three days was a real military objective. Ukraine as a state was supposed to fall under Russia's control within 75 days by military and other means. This war is all about colonialism and it's never been about his fear of the Nato expansion. Whether or not Putin's still harboring his delusions today, 3 years later, remains to be seen.

But back in 2022? Give me a fucking break. He didn't start a full-scale invasion in order to grab two lousy eastern oblasts that they had already pillaged and robbed blind in the preceding 8 years.


Russian President Vladimir Putin didn't invade Ukraine in 2022 because he feared NATO. He invaded because he believed that NATO was weak, that his efforts to regain control of Ukraine by other means had failed, and that installing a pro-Russian government in Kyiv would be safe and easy. His aim was not to defend Russia against some non-existent threat but rather to expand Russias power, eradicate Ukraines statehood, and destroy NATO, goals he still pursues.

Putin had convinced himself by the end of 2021 that Russia had the opportunity to safely launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine to accomplish two distinct goals: establish Russian control over Ukraine without facing significant Western resistance and break the unity of NATO. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/weakness-lethal-why-putin-invaded-ukraine-and-how-war-must-end

The plan was to quickly seize Kyiv, apprehend or murder Zelensky and other government officials and install a puppet government that would be completely obedient to Kremlin's will.


Vladimir Putin expected to defeat Ukraine in three days after his spies told him thousands of people would rise up to overthrow Volodymyr Zelensky.

Leaked documents show the FSB security service was feeding poor intelligence to the Russian tyrant before his invasion of Ukraine.

Putin ordered his forces to invade Ukraine a year ago in the belief he could secure a lightning victory by seizing the capital Kyiv and decapitating the leadership.

But heroic Ukrainian resistance thwarted the Russians, whose dreams of quick victory soon turned into the nightmare - with nearly 150,000 of Putins soldiers now lying dead.

The initial attempt to take Kyiv has been blamed on cataclysmic intelligence failures about the capabilities of the Ukrainians and their willingness to fight back.

But the extent to which Putins spies bungled is revealed by emails from within the FSB, which have been shared with The Sun.

They come from a source known as Wind of Change and were sent to Russian human rights activist Vladimir Osechkin, the founder of Gulagu, which highlights abuses in the countrys prisons.

The emails are believed to originally be the work of one FSB officer but its thought several now contribute to the emails.

In an email written about a fortnight after the invasion, as Russias dead began to mount, the source reveals how the FSB spies had been reporting that before the invasion, Ukrainians were ready to rise up.

We issued reports that at minimum about 2,000 trained civilians in every major city in Ukraine were ready to overthrow Zelensky, a leaked email reads.

And that at least 5,000 civilians were prepared to come out with flags against Zelensky on the beck-and-call of Russia.

Wind of Change then goes on to explain that the FSB thought that once Zelensky had been toppled, the Ukrainians would then fight among themselves to win Putins favour.

Do you want a laugh?, says the source.

We were expected to be the arbitrators for crowning Ukrainian politicians who were supposed to start tearing each other apart competing for the right to be called aligned with Russia.

The source mentioned several times that three days was the timetable given to Putin for the capture of Kyiv.

What if it doesnt work? This question was left unanswered when they planned to take Kiev in three days, said Wind of Change in one reference.

The Russian leaders views are shaped by his ideological blind spot towards Ukraine so it would take a brave FSB officer to go out on a limb.

He is absolutely convinced that Ukraine is not a real country and Ukrainians not a real people and therefore cant bring him to accept that theyre willing to die with such determination for this non-country.

Whos going to be the one who actually says Vladimir Vladimirovich thats not actually the way things are.

In the hours and days after the war began, the chilling sight of helicopters swarming towards Kyiv gave way to harrowing images of charred armoured columns ambushed by Ukrainians.

The initial attempt to seize Hostomel airport and use it to pour in reinforcements ended in humiliation when the elite Russian paratroopers given the task were obliterated.https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/putin-thought-he-could-take-ukraine-in-three-days-leaked-emails-reveal/news-story/bf4de32af600b8b653069cdc34c174c8

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/21449691/putin-ukraine-3-days-docs/

https://www.gulagu.net

[Tiny 12]

Primarily, to resist paid disinformation and propaganda. I support the cause of democratic liberalism. I want to see a healthy, educated world where there is no armed conflict and international disputes are resolved through legal means.Then why don't you favor Ukraine and Russia entering into peace negotiations and an armistice ASAP?


I had great hopes for the RF after 1992. There was a temporary blossoming of freedom, liberalism and culture, which has been suppressed by Putin's dictatorship. I am an amateur historian and have always had an interest in Russian imperialism, hegemony, territorial aggrandizement and periodic failure. In my opinion, Russia is in a much, much more fragile condition than in either 1917 or 1991. I believe, and I think you know it as well, its failure is inevitable.This is a worthwhile read for any amateur historian holding the views you do about Russia. Please don't overlook the documents at the end if you take a look.

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early

[John Clayton]

Then why don't you favor Ukraine and Russia entering into peace negotiations and an armistice ASAP?...I am in favor of peace. Negotiations over the prosecution of war crimes and reparations should begin immediately after Russia withdraws behind sovereign borders.

[PaulInZurich]

Then why don't you favor Ukraine and Russia entering into peace negotiations and an armistice ASAP?

This is a worthwhile read for any amateur historian holding the views you do about Russia. Please don't overlook the documents at the end if you take a look.

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-earlyI really want to see how Ukrainian security can be guaranteed in any peace negotiation. Assuming a deal territories against peace, which foreign troops will be allowed by both Russia and Ukraine to guarantee the demarcation line?

I don't think anybody is against peace and for war. I think some people when they say they are for peace, they mean that they are for Ukrainian capitulation. During the last negotiations Russia was asking for a severe limitation in Ukrainian Army size and what weapons they would be allowed, which would guarantee that Ukraine could not defend itself anymore. Security guarantees would depend on a Russian veto. There was a treaty, more than 30 years ago Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons for security and territorial guarantees, Russia signed that treaty. What good is that piece of paper now?

Ukraine was neutral in 2014 and there were no talks of the government then that they are asking to join NATO. Then Putin invaded Crimeea. I find it strange that people keep saying "but in 1990 during negotiations some people said NATO would not expand". Maybe, but in the end it was never in any treaty, whatever was in the treaties then was what was accepted by the Soviet leadership at the time. Should Poland, Romania, the Baltic countries be kicked out of NATO because Putin wants that now?

At the same time people ignore when actual signed treaties were violated by Russia. Can we please hold everybody to the same standard?

[Tiny 12]

I am in favor of peace. Negotiations over the prosecution of war crimes and reparations should begin immediately after Russia withdraws behind sovereign borders.That's a recipe for endless war, "prosecution of war crimes" in particular.


I really want to see how Ukrainian security can be guaranteed in any peace negotiation. Assuming a deal territories against peace, which foreign troops will be allowed by both Russia and Ukraine to guarantee the demarcation line?

I don't think anybody is against peace and for war. I think some people when they say they are for peace, they mean that they are for Ukrainian capitulation. During the last negotiations Russia was asking for a severe limitation in Ukrainian Army size and what weapons they would be allowed, which would guarantee that Ukraine could not defend itself anymore. Security guarantees would depend on a Russian veto. There was a treaty, more than 30 years ago Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons for security and territorial guarantees, Russia signed that treaty. What good is that piece of paper now?

Ukraine was neutral in 2014 and there were no talks of the government then that they are asking to join NATO. Then Putin invaded Crimeea. I find it strange that people keep saying "but in 1990 during negotiations some people said NATO would not expand". Maybe, but in the end it was never in any treaty, whatever was in the treaties then was what was accepted by the Soviet leadership at the time. Should Poland, Romania, the Baltic countries be kicked out of NATO because Putin wants that now?

At the same time people ignore when actual signed treaties were violated by Russia. Can we please hold everybody to the same standard?Ukraine's position has been that it must ultimately regain all its territory including Crimea, although its backed off that somewhat. You've outlined Russia's position above. But to what extent are these just opening positions that neither side expects to fully achieve? The two sides were close in April, 2022. They should sit at the same table and hammer something out.

Ukraine and the West have to be realistic. Russia has a lot more manpower and military capability than Ukraine in addition to a huge nuclear arsenal. It's not going to lose this war.

You could level the same accusations at the USA that you're leveling at Russia. The Mexican-American war is a good analogy although admittedly something that occurred long ago. The USA added territory claimed by Mexico (Texas) where a large % of the population wanted to be annexed by the United States, and then war broke out which resulted in Mexico ceding a large part of the country to the USA. Iraq is not as good a comparison, although Russia at least is, mistakenly or not, protecting its interest in the near abroad, instead of pursuing democracy and imaginary weapons of mass destruction in a country 11,000 kilometers away. If the 20th century had turned out differently and Canada or Mexico were looking at joining the Warsaw Pact, the USA wouldn't just sit still. And the USA hasn't been one to let a piece of paper (i.e. treaty) dictate its conduct either.

I wish great powers conducted foreign policy as sensibly as yours (Switzerland) has through the centuries. But that's not the world we live in. And the primary goal now should be to stop the bloodshed IMO.

[Xpartan]

That's a recipe for endless war, "prosecution of war crimes" in particular.

Ukraine's position has been that it must ultimately regain all its territory including Crimea, although its backed off that somewhat. You've outlined Russia's position above. But to what extent are these just opening positions that neither side expects to fully achieve? The two sides were close in April, 2022. They should sit at the same table and hammer something out.You keep repeating the same propacondoms' lies about some mythical agreement that had been hammered and would've been signed if mischievous Boris Johnson didn't torpedo it at the last moment.

That's a phantasy. There was no agreement ready to sign. It's an FSB construct for useful idiots in the West, and it's upsetting that you believe this nonsense.


Ukraine and the West have to be realistic. Russia has a lot more manpower and military capability than Ukraine in addition to a huge nuclear arsenal. It's not going to lose this war.You don't know Russian history very well. Russia has managed to lose wars it started in way more favorable conditions. It's one thing to capture a village or town, but it's an entirely different proposition to hold on to it. One way or another, sooner or later, Ukraine will regain its territories.


You could level the same accusations at the USA that you're leveling at Russia. The Mexican-American war is a good analogy although admittedly something that occurred long ago. The USA added territory claimed by Mexico (Texas) where a large % of the population wanted to be annexed by the United States, and then war broke out which resulted in Mexico ceding a large part of the country to the USA. My goodness, please tell me you DO understand how removed the US is right now from the Manifest Destiny. Please tell me you don't fall for this yet another Russian narrative that we're not better than them. It's 2025, not 19th century when everyone and their mother were in a mad dash to conquer new colonies; we haven't been "that guy" for a long, long time; yet Russia and its imperial aspirations are exactly the same today as they were 200 years ago.

Sane nations do not conquer foreign lands anymore. Russia is the biggest anachronism in the history of mankind, and it will fail -- hard.

[John Clayton]

That's a recipe for endless war, "prosecution of war crimes" in particular....You could level the same accusations at the USA that you're leveling at Russia. The Mexican-American war is a good analogy ...The main reason that Germany is a decent country today is due to the prosecution of war crimes and the de-nazification of society. Justice and the prosecution of crimes is critical to the continuance of a free, egalitarian state. Truly, the Mexican-American war is an excellent comparison to the current Russian invasion of Ukraine -- the difference being we won decisively. I believe one of the reasons the US is such a f!cked up country today is that our imperialistic crimes in the 19th century were never punished. Further, I believe that the failure to pscourge the oligarchic slave holders for their insurrection in 1861 is the principle cause of the current revanchism of the southern US.

If you hope for a modern, prosperous, free and open Russia, as I do, then you should hope for war crimes prosecutions and the de-putinization of Russia.

[Tiny 12]

The main reason that Germany is a decent country today is due to the prosecution of war crimes and the de-nazification of society. Justice and the prosecution of crimes is critical to the continuance of a free, egalitarian state. Truly, the Mexican-American war is an excellent comparison to the current Russian invasion of Ukraine -- the difference being we won decisively. I believe one of the reasons the US is such a f!cked up country today is that our imperialistic crimes in the 19th century were never punished. Further, I believe that the failure to pscourge the oligarchic slave holders for their insurrection in 1861 is the principle cause of the current revanchism of the southern US.

If you hope for a modern, prosperous, free and open Russia, as I do, then you should hope for war crimes prosecutions and the de-putinization of Russia.You're making my point Clayton. There was no way Mexico, even if aided with arms (but not troops) from Europe, was going to win the war. And then go marching into Washington D. C. And prosecute James K. Polk, Zachary Taylor, and George McClellan for war crimes. And, reaching further into the depths of my fantasy world, no way Europeans would have sent troops if the USA had weapons that could be launched with the touch of a red button and would destroy them ten times over.

[PaulInZurich]

Ukraine and the West have to be realistic. Russia has a lot more manpower and military capability than Ukraine in addition to a huge nuclear arsenal. It's not going to lose this war.
So how come they lost in Afghanistan? They were a nuclear power then, with a lot of manpower and military capability.

[Paulie97]

You're making my point Clayton. There was no way Mexico, even if aided with arms (but not troops) from Europe, was going to win the war. And then go marching into Washington D. C. And prosecute James K. Polk, Zachary Taylor, and George McClellan for war crimes. And, reaching further into the depths of my fantasy world, no way Europeans would have sent troops if the USA had weapons that could be launched with the touch of a red button and would destroy them ten times over.Your "point" is fallacious. It's called the tu quoque fallacy. When faced with the fact that there was no treaty stipulating that NATO won't expand into Eastern Europe, and while even the idea of past verbal assurances are questionable, you dive back 180 years and start talking about the Mexican-American War. So whether it's this whataboutism or some other, rest assured folks, that when Tiny goes there he's a fish out of water in the hear and now and regarding his slanted, Russophile perspective. Congratulations Paul in Zurich.

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/tu-quoque

I'll also add that it's nauseating when you claim to care about human life when appeasement historically has encouraged aggression rather than deter it. What is Russia's word worth in any agreement? Oh but forgot, you're the guy who believes Putin hasn't targeted civilians, while you glad hand here with guys who assert that Alexi Navalny died of natural causes.

[Xpartan]

This is the 82-year old who told Putin to go fuck himself, although I like another quote more.


Don't be scared. When you're scared, fear itself overcomes everything. Don't be scared. When you're scared nothing fucking will change.https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/19blniw/id_tell_him_to_go_fck_himself_this_russian_woman/?rdt=40169

[Paulie97]

And, reaching further into the depths of my fantasy world, no way Europeans would have sent troops if the USA had weapons that could be launched with the touch of a red button and would destroy them ten times over.Unsurprisingly your analogy only has your beloved Russia with nukes. NATO will very likely send troops if Puts launches tactical nukes. Odds of him doing that though are slim. Use of the big stuff is a suicide mission. What they count on is making guys like you cower (not hard), to secure appeasement so they can regroup and start more fights in the future. The hope though of course is that they make another go at democracy at some point. The West hopes to be influential in that by exacting costs.

[John Clayton]

... no way Europeans would have sent troops if the USA had weapons that could be launched with the touch of a red button and would destroy them ten times over.You continue to advance disinformation about the inevitability of Russian victory. In 2022, when it was already clear that the Russian army was not the second greatest army in the world, only the second greatest in Ukraine, I was worried that Putin would launch his nukes. However, I believe now, that he perceives the war only in terms of his personal survival. He knows that the chance disappears if he uses nukes.

[Paulie97]

You continue to advance disinformation about the inevitability of Russian victory. In 2022, when it was already clear that the Russian army was not the second greatest army in the world, only the second greatest in Ukraine, I was worried that Putin would launch his nukes. However, I believe now, that he perceives the war only in terms of his personal survival. He knows that the chance disappears if he uses nukes.Russia has either lost or failed in their objectives in a number of armed conflicts since developing nukes. Tiny is also incorrect in assuming that Russia is entitled to a sphere of influence while they have an economy about the size of Brazil. That horse left the stable long ago, while nuclear saber rattling is unlikely to get it back.

[Xpartan]

You're making my point Clayton. There was no way Mexico, even if aided with arms (but not troops) from Europe, was going to win the war. And then go marching into Washington D. C. And prosecute James K. Polk, Zachary Taylor, and George McClellan for war crimes. And, reaching further into the depths of my fantasy world, no way Europeans would have sent troops if the USA had weapons that could be launched with the touch of a red button and would destroy them ten times over.I have no idea what you're talking about and why.

1. Mexico, unlike Ukraine, never was aided with arms or troops even though they did appeal to the British. Arguing whether or not they would or wouldn't have won had they received help is utterly pointless.

2. Mexico didn't lose to Texas and later the USA because they had fewer soldiers or weapons. If I remember correctly, the US army was smaller than Mexico's. Mexicans lost because they were disorganized, lacked discipline and were plagued with infighting and political instability.

3. Santa Anna being a narcissist and self-proclaimed Napoleon of the West, royally fucked things up for his country.

4. Finally, for the umpteenth time: What happened in the 19th century has zero bearing for the 2022 Russian colonial war against Ukraine. In the past 200 years, America has changed. Russia hasn't.

[Elvis 2008]

What they count on is making guys like you cower (not hard), to secure appeasement so they can regroup and start more fights in the future. The hope though of course is that they make another go at democracy at some point. The West hopes to be influential in that by exacting costs.I guess Tiny is solely responsible for the fall of all the Zelensky loving, Putin hating governments falling in the Western powers like Germany, the USA, now Canada, and soon to be France.

Of all the arguments made, the most compelling against Ukraine I have seen is that we could have built a water pipeline and natural gas pipeline from Alaska to the Western USA with the money wasted on Ukraine.

This is a clear case of Democratic pols putting their interests above their constituents and IMO why they and the other Zelensky backers got voted out. In the USA's case, the Dems wanted payback for their belief Putin rigged the 2016 election and to hide all the dirt that is and was going on in Ukraine.

[Paulie97]

I guess Tiny is solely responsible for the fall of all the Zelensky loving, Putin hating governments falling in the Western powers like Germany, the USA, now Canada, and soon to be France.

Of all the arguments made, the most compelling against Ukraine I have seen is that we could have built a water pipeline and natural gas pipeline from Alaska to the Western USA with the money wasted on Ukraine.

This is a clear case of Democratic pols putting their interests above their constituents and IMO why they and the other Zelensky backers got voted out. In the USA's case, the Dems wanted payback for their belief Putin rigged the 2016 election and to hide all the dirt that is and was going on in Ukraine.You don't have an "argument" here. Why? Because you are just repeating the same nonsense again that's already been refuted dozens of times, here in ISG on these threads. You type up false information, and when corrected, whether ten, twenty, or one hundred times, just keep typing up and posting the same falsehoods. Yours is the most common fallacy of the ad-nauseam. A large portion of Republicans have from the beginning been in favor of Ukrainian aid, while Trump himself oversaw the first administration to send lethal aid.

Anyway here's the voting data on the last Ukrainian aid package from eight months ago, House and Senate. It's all quite bipartisan, which well undermines your "Democrat" conspiracy theories. The third link explains your fallacy of the ad-nauseam, which essentially means that if you tell a lie long enough some are liable to believe it. Regardless you've known for a long time that Ukrainian aid has been quite bipartisan, but instead choose to try and fool a few mongers on stupid shit threads. Knock yourself out, as there isn't a lot of hope for the sort of people that would fall for it, embracing what sounds good to them without doing any fact checking.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/full-list-of-republican-senators-who-voted-against-ukraine-aid/ar-AA1nz2Eq

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/these-112-house-republicans-voted-against-ukraine-aid/ar-AA1nmjSP

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_nauseam

[Paulie97]

I guess Tiny is solely responsible for the fall of all the Zelensky loving, Putin hating governments falling in the Western powers like Germany, the USA, now Canada, and soon to be France.Tiny, like you, is responsible for his constant logical fallacies. I'll leave it at that, but Germany's center-right CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who is the likely next chancellor, is a staunch supporter of Ukraine, and unlike the present leader, supports the use of the German made, long range "Taurus" missles inside Russia.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/12/09/germanys-cdu-leader-friedrich-merz-visits-kyiv-to-reaffirm-support

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/16/germany-set-for-new-elections-after-chancellor-scholz-loses-confidence-vote

We know you've exaggerated the US situation, but if you have any evidence that Canada and France are about to close up shop in the matter of support for Ukraine and distaste for the cowardly dictator Putin, then link us to your sources. Links are something you almost never provide, while that would make for a good start in building some credibility for yourself.

BTW, since your Putin sucking up grows all the time, I have a question for you. Do you believe like Blood Red that Alexi Navalny simply died of natural causes? Of course that opens a big can of worms regarding a history of similar events, but a straight answer to that question would be much appreciated.

[Elvis 2008]

Yours is the most common fallacy of the ad-nauseam. A large portion of Republicans have from the beginning been in favor of Ukrainian aid, while Trump himself oversaw the first administration to send lethal aid.You are as delusional on this as on Covid. Trump ran on peace in Ukraine not war. The support for war among Republicans in Ukraine is dwindling like crazy. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/how-stalled-u-s-aid-for-ukraine-exemplifies-gops-softening-stance-on-russia.

And some Republicans have been scared of being painted as Putin lovers. That is something you Dems have been falsely charging since Russiagate. And this is what was in the news today, https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fbi-still-hiding-details-russiagate-newly-released-document-shows The Electronic Communication, dated May 16,2017, claimed to have an "articulable factual basis" to suspect that Trump "wittingly or unwittingly" was illegally acting on behalf of Russia. Aaron Mate is looking like crazy as to why this FBI investigation was actually begun.

Ah yes, the truckers in Canada protesting Covid could have been and were accused of the same. They may have unwittingly been acting on behalf of Russia too. Hell, who could NOT be accused of that?

So being a Putin lover, is the same as in the 50's of being a communist lover. So just like in the 1950's, no pol is gong to run on not being pro Zelensky and anti Putin. The question is not what European leaders say but what are they going to do.

The real question, and one that does not bother you at all, is why the hell was the FBI bending over backwards and conducting an illegal investigation to call Trump a Putin lover. The deep state seems to originated this whole shaming crap and making the accusation of being a "Putin lover".

And I am lying? How about you and all the Democratic leaders saying we were supporting Ukraine until they achieved victory? Yeah, Ukraine is going to win against Russia. How long have you all been lying about that? When is Victory Day Paulie? This crap has been going on for years now. How pathetic are you to claim yourself moral as the bodies continue to pile up.

And the Trump election did not signify a change in Ukraine policy? Yeah, keep telling yourself that.

[Paulie97]

Despite challenges, Ukraine is currently winning the economic war with Russia.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/12/18/ukraine-is-winning-the-economic-war-against-russia

A Russian victory would come with very high costs for the West, in both the short and long term.

https://www.globsec.org/sites/default/files/2023-09/Costs%20of%20Inaction%20&%20Benefits%20of%20Action%20report.pdf

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine-part-2-%E2%80%94-military-threat-and-beyond

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/price-russian-victory

There's a lot of good content out there folks, for those that want to learn. Or one can continue to read Russia propaganda and listen to YouTube blowhards that knowingly or unknowingly promote the same. It's your choice.

[Tiny 12]

Your "point" is fallacious. It's called the tu quoque fallacy. When faced with the fact that there was no treaty stipulating that NATO won't expand into Eastern Europe, and while even the idea of past verbal assurances are questionable, you dive back 180 years and start talking about the Mexican-American War. So whether it's this whataboutism or some other, rest assured folks, that when Tiny goes there he's a fish out of water in the hear and now and regarding his slanted, Russophile perspective. Congratulations Paul in Zurich.

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/tu-quoque

I'll also add that it's nauseating when you claim to care about human life when appeasement historically has encouraged aggression rather than deter it. What is Russia's word worth in any agreement? Oh but forgot, you're the guy who believes Putin hasn't targeted civilians, while you glad hand here with guys who assert that Alexi Navalny died of natural causes.Quoque tu too, and quoque your Ivy Leave philosophy degree. Does that make sense? Or how about "Paulie makes Ad Hominem arguments, and then when somebody replies in kind, Paulie tu quoques him." I didn't know what Ad Hominem meant until I saw it used in your posts. Well, you're the master of that. You end up calling board members losers, stupid or immoral in the majority of your posts.

I said the Mexican American War occurred long ago, and that my analogy came from "my fantasy world. " With the possible exception of you, I don't believe board members are current or past movers and shakers in the USA foreign policy / defense / military complex. Furthermore, the person I was replying to presumably wasn't even American. He lives in Zurich. So how am I "appealing to hypocrisy. To shift the focus back on the person making the criticism"?

What's "nauseating" is enabling this war, so hundreds of thousands more will die, instead of pushing the sides to stop fighting.

Navalny is one person. According to the UN, 12,300 civilians have died in Ukraine over 2 years and 10 months. The allies killed around 24,000 in bombing raids in Dresden in three days. Around 200,000 died from the Hiroshima bomb. Is that another good example of quoque tu?

[Tiny 12]

Despite challenges, Ukraine is currently winning the economic war with Russia.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/12/18/ukraine-is-winning-the-economic-war-against-russia

A Russian victory would come with very high costs for the West, in both the short and long term.

https://www.globsec.org/sites/default/files/2023-09/Costs%20of%20Inaction%20&%20Benefits%20of%20Action%20report.pdf

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine-part-2-%E2%80%94-military-threat-and-beyond

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/price-russian-victory

There's a lot of good content out there folks, for those that want to learn. Or one can continue to read Russia propaganda and listen to YouTube blowhards that knowingly or unknowingly promote the same. It's your choice.Most Ukrainians now want an end to the war. Ukraine is not going to win this war. And no country has offered to take the lead in the Ukraine Contract Group if the USA Withdraws from that role.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2024/11/20/most-ukrainians-now-want-an-end-to-the-war

https://www.ft.com/content/6137b633-c3b9-4703-8840-6191388e4092

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/08/ukraine-group-austin-nato-00197179

There's a lot of good content out there folks, for those that (sic) want to learn. Or one can continue to read propaganda and listen to YouTube blowhards that (sic) knowingly or unknowingly promote the same. It's your choice.

[Tiny 12]

So how come they lost in Afghanistan? They were a nuclear power then, with a lot of manpower and military capability.About 15,000 Russian military died in the Afghanistan war over 11 years. The Pentagon estimated that 115,000 Russians died in Ukraine up to October, 2024. Russia is dead set on not losing this war. The stakes are higher in its view given it borders Ukraine. Afghanistan to Russia was like Vietnam to the USA. A place that was farther away and not of high strategic importance. Finally, Putin is more determined to come up with, at a minimum, a face saving end to this than Gorbachev was.

[Tiny 12]

You keep repeating the same propacondoms' lies about some mythical agreement that had been hammered and would've been signed if mischievous Boris Johnson didn't torpedo it at the last moment.

That's a phantasy. There was no agreement ready to sign. It's an FSB construct for useful idiots in the West, and it's upsetting that you believe this nonsense.The agreement was "torpedoed" by the Kremlin (not Boris Johnson) which at the last minute tried to insert a provision that would give Russia a veto on defense of Ukraine by other countries. That doesn't change that the sides were very close and should have continued talking.


You don't know Russian history very well. Russia has managed to lose wars it started in way more favorable conditions. It's one thing to capture a village or town, but it's an entirely different proposition to hold on to it. One way or another, sooner or later, Ukraine will regain its territories.I don't see how that happens. And believe that civilians living in Russian-occupied territories would much prefer living in Russian oblasts instead of continuing the war. In fact, I believe the majority would prefer to live in Russia period.


My goodness, please tell me you DO understand how removed the US is right now from the Manifest Destiny. Please tell me you don't fall for this yet another Russian narrative that we're not better than them. It's 2025, not 19th century when everyone and their mother were in a mad dash to conquer new colonies; we haven't been "that guy" for a long, long time; yet Russia and its imperial aspirations are exactly the same today as they were 200 years ago.

Sane nations do not conquer foreign lands anymore. Russia is the biggest anachronism in the history of mankind, and it will fail -- hard.The USA may be on the verge of taking over Panama and Greenland, and invading Mexico to pursue narcos. Apologies for tu quoqing.

[Tiny 12]

I guess Tiny is solely responsible for the fall of all the Zelensky loving, Putin hating governments falling in the Western powers like Germany, the USA, now Canada, and soon to be France.

Of all the arguments made, the most compelling against Ukraine I have seen is that we could have built a water pipeline and natural gas pipeline from Alaska to the Western USA with the money wasted on Ukraine.

This is a clear case of Democratic pols putting their interests above their constituents and IMO why they and the other Zelensky backers got voted out. In the USA's case, the Dems wanted payback for their belief Putin rigged the 2016 election and to hide all the dirt that is and was going on in Ukraine.Yes, I'll be responsible for Ukraine's failure to regain lost territories. Questner and Blood Red are paid Russian propagandists. And one that cracks me up, you and I are cowards. The person or people saying that haven't to my knowledge volunteered to fight on the front lines in Ukraine. I'm not intending to single out Paulie here. Those are just some of the comments posters have made in this thread.


You are as delusional on this as on Covid. Trump ran on peace in Ukraine not war. The support for war among Republicans in Ukraine is dwindling like crazy. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/how-stalled-u-s-aid-for-ukraine-exemplifies-gops-softening-stance-on-russia.Yeah, Paulie thought he had a slam dunk with those MSN links. One showed 112 Republicans and no Democrats voting against the Ukraine / Israel / Taiwan aid bill in the house. And in the Senate 15 Republicans voted against the bill and three, including Rand Paul, abstained. Only two Democrats and Bernie Sanders voted against the bill. In this instance I agree with you about Bernie, he did the right thing.

Any Republican voting against Ukraine aid would be accused of voting against help to Israel and Taiwan as well. Ukrainian aid would have gotten less Republican support if it were in a standalone bill.

[Xpartan]

The agreement was "torpedoed" by the Kremlin (not Boris Johnson) which at the last minute tried to insert a provision that would give Russia a veto on defense of Ukraine by other countries. That doesn't change that the sides were very close and should have continued talking.Talking about what? All you want to do is to talk, talk and talk, like talking is going to make everything better.

The point is that any agreement with Putin never had a chance. Which makes it what? Right, a fantasy.


I don't see how that happens. And believe that civilians living in Russian-occupied territories would much prefer living in Russian oblasts instead of continuing the war. In fact, I believe the majority would prefer to live in Russia period.For one thing it wouldn't matter even if it were true. These territories belong to another country, so who the fuck are you to go in and occupy them? That's an act of aggression and a war crime. How hard is it to comprehend?

But what makes it worse is that isn't true. At first, a significant part of Donbas' population were swayed by incessant Russian propaganda that managed to convince them that Kyiv is attacking their language, but the most powerful Russian argument came along with the Russian armed forces FROM Russia who organized and orchestrated the coup. Igor Girkin / Strelkov, an FSB lieutenant-colonel and his band of opportunists are ultimately responsible for seizure of Donbas.

Read: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/04/23/10-years-later-russian-volunteer-fighters-recall-fueling-the-war-in-donbas-a84917.

Then the Russian "management" arrived. The living standards in Donbas had been relatively high, as it was one of the most prosperous regions in Ukraine. In 10 year-time, since 2014 the Russia mafia state has raped and pillaged the region. They divvied it up between their oligarch crime families who robbed everyone blind, destroyed the industries and every resemblance of normalcy. Their industrial landscape is a burned out desert right now.

Read: https://congress-files.s3.amazonaws.com/2023-08/SSDiD_Ukraine_article_0.pdf.

Politically, they installed a mafia-controlled dictatorship. People who would question the actions of their rulers would disappear. They have practically decimated the male population of Donbas, grabbing people off the streets and sending them to the frontlines armed with weapons from the WW2. That started even BEFORE the full-scale invasion, but was greatly exacerbated in 2022. The vast majority of these men are dead now, the rest are hiding.

No Tiny. Donbas wouldn't "prefer to live in Russia period". If the AFU were able to reconquer the territory today, Donbas women would line up for a chance to give a free BJ to their Ukrainian liberators. Sorry, make it BBBJ.


The USA may be on the verge of taking over Panama and Greenland, and invading Mexico to pursue narcos. Apologies for tu quoqing.Oh, no you didn't! Ask your BFF Elvis why we're forced to talk about this insanity today. Not my fucking president.

[PaulInZurich]

About 15,000 Russian military died in the Afghanistan war over 11 years. The Pentagon estimated that 115,000 Russians died in Ukraine up to October, 2024. Russia is dead set on not losing this war. The stakes are higher in its view given it borders Ukraine. Valid point. I think that Russia can continue with the current loss rate as long as they get enough volunteers from the poor parts of Russia. If they have to mobilize to mobilize in Moscow and St Petersburg, that would be the end of the current regime.

[Goatscrot]

Valid point. I think that Russia can continue with the current loss rate as long as they get enough volunteers from the poor parts of Russia. If they have to mobilize to mobilize in Moscow and St Petersburg, that would be the end of the current regime.Exactly why the Afghanistan war ended for Russia.

[Tiny 12]

Talking about what? All you want to do is to talk, talk and talk, like talking is going to make everything better.

The point is that any agreement with Putin never had a chance. Which makes it what? Right, a fantasy.

For one thing it wouldn't matter even if it were true. These territories belong to another country, so who the fuck are you to go in and occupy them? That's an act of aggression and a war crime. How hard is it to comprehend?

But what makes it worse is that isn't true. At first, a significant part of Donbas' population were swayed by incessant Russian propaganda that managed to convince them that Kyiv is attacking their language, but the most powerful Russian argument came along with the Russian armed forces FROM Russia who organized and orchestrated the coup. Igor Girkin / Strelkov, an FSB lieutenant-colonel and his band of opportunists are ultimately responsible for seizure of Donbas.

Read: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/04/23/10-years-later-russian-volunteer-fighters-recall-fueling-the-war-in-donbas-a84917.

Then the Russian "management" arrived. The living standards in Donbas had been relatively high, as it was one of the most prosperous regions in Ukraine. In 10 year-time, since 2014 the Russia mafia state has raped and pillaged the region. They divvied it up between their oligarch crime families who robbed everyone blind, destroyed the industries and every resemblance of normalcy. Their industrial landscape is a burned out desert right now.

Read: https://congress-files.s3.amazonaws.com/2023-08/SSDiD_Ukraine_article_0.pdf.

Politically, they installed a mafia-controlled dictatorship. People who would question the actions of their rulers would disappear. They have practically decimated the male population of Donbas, grabbing people off the streets and sending them to the frontlines armed with weapons from the WW2. That started even BEFORE the full-scale invasion, but was greatly exacerbated in 2022. The vast majority of these men are dead now, the rest are hiding.

No Tiny. Donbas wouldn't "prefer to live in Russia period". If the AFU were able to reconquer the territory today, Donbas women would line up for a chance to give a free BJ to their Ukrainian liberators. Sorry, make it BBBJ.

Oh, no you didn't! Ask your BFF Elvis why we're forced to talk about this insanity today. Not my fucking president.While it didn't change my mind, that's a well-written post with links worth reading, or maybe scanning for the second one. What I'm getting from the Moscow Times piece is that the situation was a complete cluster fuck. You had pro-Maidan and anti-Maidan forces clashing in eastern Ukraine. Then Russian volunteers, initially without government support, entered the fray, which was at some point followed by support from the Russian government. It's interesting to read that some Russian nationalists view the Minsk accords as a betrayal. It sounds like the escalation was not, contrary to what the media claims, driven by Putin, but rather Russian nationalistic sentiment among some groups.

The second link was interesting too. The per capital income of Russia is much higher than Ukraine. As such, I figured economically, in the long term, people living in eastern Ukraine may be better off under Russian rule. The decline in income from 2014 to 2019 is striking.

The polling info I've read indicates that post 2014 and pre 2022, a majority of the population in separatist controlled areas of Donbas preferred to be part of Russia, and vice versa for areas under Ukrainian government control.

I don't know how this gets settled without the two sides talking. Otherwise it goes on forever, which is not good for anyone.

As to Elvis, I don't believe he's as huge a Trump fan as you think. If you give people two bad choices (Harris and Trump), they'll make a bad choice. I don't presume to speak for him, but if Democrats had nominated someone like Joe Manchin that might have given him pause when he voted.

[Xpartan]

Valid point. I think that Russia can continue with the current loss rate as long as they get enough volunteers from the poor parts of Russia. If they have to mobilize to mobilize in Moscow and St Petersburg, that would be the end of the current regime.This is what terrifies Putin and why he's paying a $50,000 sign up bonus for every "volunteer" including the sick, the old and the invalids -- rather than mobilize.

Watch the first 2 minutes (unless you want to know what some Russians use in lieu of toilet paper, LOL).

https://youtu.be/qvIcQHVF6N4

If you don't know how to set up English subs:

Hit Settings. Subtitles. Auto-translate. Choose your language.

[Paulie97]

You are as delusional on this as on Covid.As the great federal judge while shooting down Trump's ludicrous stolen election claims adeptly stated, "Saying it's so doesn't make it so. "


And some Republicans have been scared of being painted as Putin lovers. Now we get wild speculation combined with mind reading skills. Russia invaded a sovereign country unprovoked, has been raping and murdering civilians while hiding their bodies, has been kidnapping and indoctrinating Ukrainian children, etc, etc. Bipartisan US support for aid to Ukraine isn't surprising.


That is something you Dems...How weak. I'm an independent, officially "no party affiliation" as registered in FL, not that this matters. US support for Ukraine has been very bipartisan since the start. Can you read? Can you look up Congressional voting records? Why don't you go to some political forums and pitch your Dem conspiracy theory arguments in the matter of Ukraine aid? That's because you'll be trounced again and again, and can only stay somewhat above water in stupid shit where few are willing to spend time bothering with you.


Ah yes, the truckers in Canada protesting Covid could have been and were accused of the same. They may have unwittingly been acting on behalf of Russia too. Hell, who could NOT be accused of that? So being a Putin lover, is the same as in the 50's of being a communist lover. So just like in the 1950's, no pol is gong to run on not being pro Zelensky and anti Putin. The question is not what European leaders say but what are they going to do.The real question, and one that does not bother you at all, is why the hell was the FBI bending over backwards and conducting an illegal investigation to call Trump a Putin lover. The deep state seems to originated this whole shaming crap and making the accusation of being a "Putin lover".

And I am lying? How about you and all the Democratic leaders saying we were supporting Ukraine until they achieved victory? Yeah, Ukraine is going to win against Russia. How long have you all been lying about that? When is Victory Day Paulie? This crap has been going on for years now. How pathetic are you to claim yourself moral as the bodies continue to pile up.

And the Trump election did not signify a change in Ukraine policy? Yeah, keep telling yourself that.Come back and talk to us when aid to Ukraine from the US, Canada, Germany and France ends, as you predicted is about to occur. As it stands right now that's only a hope of yours. Putin isn't going to stop short of controlling the entirety of Ukraine, while Trump can only look terrible if he facilitates this. The aim is to outlast Putin, as victory for Russia in Ukraine would cost the West more than the continuing aid. I recently posted articles to support the latter point. As far as outlasting Putin goes (war of attrition), this is the best article I've read on that subject. And though I don't agree with every point, he's on the right track. I'm going to post it in it's entirely in a second post in case some are blocked by the paywall.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/putin-will-never-give-ukraine?check_logged_in=1

I'll add that the world isn't safe while the imperialistic ambitions of murderous dictators like Putin are rewarded. Appeasement only invites more aggression.

I couldn't give a rat's ass about your "deep state" conspiracy theories, at least as it stands now, but if you can come up with a better source than zerohedge or Alex Jones I'll give it a second look.

[Paulie97]

New Issue Out January / February 2025.

Read Now.

Putin Will Never Give Up in Ukraine.

The West Can't Change His Calculus—It Can Only Wait Him Out.

Peter Schroeder.

September 3, 2024.

Peter Schroeder is Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security. He was an analyst and a member of the Senior Analytic Service at the Central Intelligence Agency and from 2018 to 2022 served as Principal Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council.

Two and a half years after Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States' strategy for ending the war remains the same: impose enough costs on Russia that its president, Vladimir Putin, will decide that he has no choice but to halt the conflict. In an effort to change his cost-benefit calculus, Washington has tried to find the sweet spot between supporting Ukraine and punishing Russia on the one hand, and reducing the risks of escalation on the other. As rational as this approach may appear, it rests on a faulty assumption: that Putin's mind can be changed.

The evidence suggests that on Ukraine, Putin simply is not persuadable; he is all in. For him, preventing Ukraine from becoming a bastion that the West can use to threaten Russia is a strategic necessity. He has taken personal responsibility for achieving that outcome and likely judges it as worth nearly any cost. Trying to coerce him into giving up is a fruitless exercise that just wastes lives and resources.

There is only one viable option for ending the war in Ukraine on terms acceptable to the West and Kyiv: waiting Putin out. Under this approach, the United States would hold the line in Ukraine and maintain sanctions against Russia while minimizing the level of fighting and amount of resources expended until Putin dies or otherwise leaves office. Only then will there be a chance for a lasting peace in Ukraine.

PUTIN THE OPPORTUNIST?

When Putin ordered the invasion, it was a war of choice. There was no urgent security threat to Russia that necessitated a large-scale invasion of its neighbor. And it was distinctly Putin's choice. Both William Burns, the director of the CIA, and Eric Green, the National Security Council's senior director for Russia at the time, have noted how out of the loop other Russian officials seemed to be about Putin's decision. Even at Putin's stage-managed, televised meeting of his top security officials on the eve of the invasion, some participants didn't seem to know exactly what to say. Russian elites eventually lined up behind him, but before February 2022, very few were pushing for a confrontation that would cost Russia so much and shatter relations with the West.

Because it is a war of choice, Putin has the power to stop it. Recognizing that the gambit proved to be harder than he anticipated, he could decide to cut his losses. The war is not existential for Russia, even if he has cast it that way rhetorically. Withdrawing Russian forces from Ukraine wouldn't threaten the existence of the Russian state, nor would it likely even threaten his own rule. Putin has made sure that no potential successors have appeared on the horizon. The two who came closest to challenging him—the opposition leader Alexei Navalny and the mutineer Yevgeny Prigozhin—are now dead. The Kremlin has decades of experience shaping domestic narratives to bolster Putin. He could easily declare victory in Ukraine and launch an accompanying information campaign to justify his about-face.

But while Putin has the power to stop the war, would he ever be willing to do so? USA Policymakers have largely answered that question in the affirmative, contending that with enough pressure, he could be forced to withdraw troops from Ukraine or at least negotiate a cease-fire. To change his calculus, Washington and its allies have imposed sweeping economic sanctions on Russia, given Ukraine military equipment and intelligence support, and isolated Moscow on the global stage.

Underneath this policy lies a belief that Putin is fundamentally an opportunist. He probes forward, and when he discovers weakness, he advances, but when he is met with strength, he withdraws. According to this view, Putin's assault on Ukraine was driven by both his imperial ambitions and his perception of weakness in the West and in Ukraine. In President Joe Biden's words, Putin has a "craven lust for land and power" and expected that after Russian forces invaded Ukraine, "NATO would fracture and divide. " If that is the diagnosis, then the right prescription is to show strength and resilience. Raise the costs of the war high enough, and he will eventually conclude that his opportunism isn't paying off.

A SENSE OF INSECURITY.

But Putin is not an opportunist, at least not on Ukraine. His most prominent international moves have not been opportunistic ploys to gain an advantage so much as preventive efforts to forestall perceived losses or retaliate against perceived provocations. Russia's military action in Georgia in 2008 was both a response to that country's attack on the separatist region of South Ossetia and an effort to avoid losing control of a territory it considered a point of leverage that could prevent Georgia's integration with the West. When Putin seized Crimea in 2014, he worried about the loss of Russia's naval base there. When he intervened in Syria in 2015, he worried about the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, a Russia-friendly leader. And when he interfered in the 2016 USA Presidential election, he was responding to what he saw as USA Efforts to undermine his position in Russia—namely, the United States' public criticism of Russia's elections in 2011–12 and the Panama Papers' exposé of the secret financial dealings of his cronies in the spring of 2016.

If opportunism is motivating Putin in Ukraine—if the gambit is the product of his imperial avarice to gain Russian control of the country whenever the possibility presented itself—then his decidedly nonopportunistic approach to Ukraine from 2014 to 2021 needs to be explained. After Russia's seizure of Crimea in March and April 2014, the Ukrainian government was in disarray. Yet rather than moving aggressively to seize additional territory, Putin chose to launch a low-level insurgency in eastern Ukraine that could be used as a bargaining chip to limit Kyiv's foreign policy options. In September 2014, after Russian forces dealt a devastating defeat to Ukrainian forces in the city of Ilovaisk, Moscow probably could have advanced farther along the coast of the Sea of Azov, creating a land corridor from Crimea to Russia. Yet Putin instead opted for a political settlement, agreeing to the Minsk protocol.

Even after USA President Donald Trump took office, when it became clear that Washington was not inclined to help Kyiv, Putin still held back from launching a broader military attack or making any other attempt to expand Russian influence in Ukraine. Such missed chances sit uncomfortably alongside a view of Putin as a master opportunist.

The evidence suggests that on Ukraine, Putin simply is not persuadable; he is all in.

Rather than an opportunistic war of aggression, the assault on Ukraine is better understood as an unjust preventive war launched to stop what Putin saw as a future security threat to Russia. In Putin's view, Ukraine was turning into an anti-Russian state that, if not stopped, could be used by the West to undermine Russia's domestic cohesion and host NATO forces that would threaten Russia itself. On some level, USA Officials seem to understand this. As Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, has said, "he saw Ukraine inexorably moving towards the West and towards NATO and away from Russia. ".

While the invasion was not a crime of opportunity, it was a surprisingly risky move for Putin. He has tended to be risk-averse internationally, making calculated moves and minimizing the commitment of Russian resources. At just several thousand troops, Russia's deployment to Syria has remained relatively small and mostly reliant on the Russian air force. When his fellow autocrat Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro seemed to be on the verge of overthrow in 2019, Putin deployed just a few hundred soldiers to help keep him in office. The war in Ukraine, by contrast, has cost Russia more than 100,000 soldiers' lives and done untold damage to its economy and international standing.

That the war is so out of character with Putin's normal risk calculus suggests that he made a strategic decision about Ukraine from which he is unwilling to back away. His decision to send the bulk of Russia's army into Ukraine in 2022, and then mobilize more forces when his initial attack failed, demonstrates that he considers the war too important to fail. And for all the costs of his decision to invade, Putin likely thinks that the costs of inaction would have been higher—namely, that Russia would have been unable to prevent the emergence of a Western-aligned Ukraine that could serve as a springboard for a "color revolution" against Russia itself. If Putin doesn't succeed now, he thinks, Russia is destined to incur those same costs. Given that this is likely how Putin is weighing the scenarios before him, Western pressure is unlikely to come anywhere close to coercing him into changing his mind and ending the war on terms acceptable to Kyiv and Washington.

THIS IS HOW IT ENDS.

If Putin is unwilling to halt his assault on Ukraine, then the war can end in only one of two ways: either because Russia has lost the ability to continue its campaign or because Putin is no longer in power.

Bringing about the first outcome, by degrading Russia's capabilities, is unrealistic. With Putin committed to the war and able to continue throwing soldiers and resources into the fight, the Russian military is unlikely to collapse. Defeating Putin on the ground in Ukraine would require a vast increase in munitions, but only in 2025 will the United States begin increasing production of necessary artillery shells, and even that uptick will not be enough to meet Ukraine's battlefield requirements—to say nothing of the air defenses Ukraine could use. Ukraine will also need to continue sending soldiers into battle, and while the West can help train them, Western countries are not willing to commit their own troops. Adding to the difficulty, as over two years of war have shown, larger offensives are extremely difficult in the face of prepared defenses, especially now that drones and other surveillance technologies reduce the element of surprise for both sides.

That leaves the second route to ending the war: Putin's exit from the Kremlin. Attempting to accelerate this process might look appealing, but it is an impractical idea. For decades, Washington has shown little ability to successfully manipulate Russian politics; trying to do so now would represent the triumph of hope over experience. Moreover, although Putin probably already thinks the United States is bent on ousting him, if it actually started taking steps to do so, he would very likely notice the change and see it as an escalation. In response, he might intensify Russian efforts to sow chaos in American society.

Given those risks, the best approach for Washington is to play the long game and wait for Putin to leave. It's possible he may step down voluntarily or be pushed out; what is certain is that, at some point, he will die. Only once he is no longer in power can the real work of permanently resolving the war in Ukraine start.

PLAYING FOR TIME.

Until then, Washington should focus on helping Ukraine hold the line and preventing further Russian military advances. It should continue to impose economic and diplomatic costs on Moscow but not expect them to have much effect; the main purpose of such pressure is to send the right message to USA Allies and hold a point of leverage in reserve for a post-Putin Russia, all while avoiding domestic criticism. At the same time, Washington should husband its resources, expending them as efficiently as possible and convincing Kyiv to avoid large, wasteful offensives. Even Kyiv's successful offensives to date—including the surprise attack into Russia's Kursk region last month—have had little effect on the overall course of the conflict. It remains a war of attrition with no sign of a coming breakthrough for Ukraine.

When the Kursk offensive dissipates and Kyiv manages to arrest Russia's progress in Donetsk, Washington should also support a cease-fire that halts the fighting. Although Putin could of course break any agreement, the benefits of a cease-fire outweigh the risks. A cease-fire would allow Ukraine to consolidate its defenses and train more soldiers, and the West could hedge its bets by continuing to supply the country with weapons. Most important, a cease-fire would prevent more soldiers and civilians from dying in a war that has no realistic end until Putin is gone.

When Putin does leave, however, Washington needs to be ready with a plan—one that not only resolves the war between Ukraine and Russia but also creates a positive framework for European security that eases military tensions, reduces the risk of conflict, and offers a vision that new Russian leaders in Moscow can buy into. That will require bold leadership, assertive diplomacy, and a willingness to compromise—in Moscow, Kyiv, Brussels, and Washington.

Since the invasion, the United States' strategy toward the war in Ukraine has been characterized by wishful thinking. If only Washington can impose enough costs on Putin, it can convince him to halt the war in Ukraine. If only it can send enough weapons to Ukraine, Kyiv can push Russian forces out. After two and a half years, it should be clear that neither outcome is in the offing. The best approach is to play for time—holding the line in Ukraine, minimizing the costs for the United States, and preparing for the day Putin eventually leaves. This is an admittedly unsatisfying and politically unpalatable approach. But it is the only realistic option.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/putin-will-never-give-ukraine?check_logged_in=1

[Paulie97]

Most Ukrainians now want an end to the war.That's been the case from the start, but not at the cost of their country and their identity.

[Paulie97]

Quoque tu too, and quoque your Ivy Leave philosophy degree.Really all you need to do is darken the doorway of a community college, or, even easier, just study logical fallacies through your favorite search engine. Your constant whataboutisms only serve to weaken your arguments.

This is my last group of posts for a time as I'm planning a series of travel adventures. Here's hoping my recent posts added some food for thought and discussion.

[Paulie97]

Yes, I'll be responsible for Ukraine's failure to regain lost territories. Questner and Blood Red are paid Russian propagandists. And one that cracks me up, you and I are cowards. The person or people saying that haven't to my knowledge volunteered to fight on the front lines in Ukraine. I'm not intending to single out Paulie here. Those are just some of the comments posters have made in this thread.Yea it was your pal Elvis calling on me to go fight for Ukraine. LOL I've never asked you or him to do that for Russia, but someone might have suggested that Blood Red and Questner join the meat grinder for what may well be their nation of origin. Appeasement is cowardly as well as impractical, while your incessant online anti-Americanism is the same.

[Xpartan]

Remember that propacondom?


The Russians took Kurakhove.He posted it on 01.01, 10 days ago.

Well, AFU left Kurakhove yesterday. As in 01.10.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russians-occupy-kurakhove-donetsk-oblast-233834454.html

How do you know a Russian propacondom is lying? His fingers are moving.

[Paulie97]

"CONSPIRACY-PSEUDOSCIENCE.

Sources in the Conspiracy-Pseudoscience category may publish unverifiable information that is not always supported by evidence. These sources may be untrustworthy for credible / verifiable information; therefore, fact-checking and further investigation is recommended on a per-article basis when obtaining information from these sources. See all Conspiracy-Pseudoscience sources.

Overall, we rate ZeroHedge an extreme right-biased conspiracy website based on the promotion of false / misleading / debunked information that routinely denigrates the left. ".

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/zero-hedge/

The site is based in Bulgaria. But folks, at least we finally got a source citation out of him. That's progress! Wink.

[Paulie97]

Navalny is one person...Around 200,000 died from the Hiroshima bomb. Navalny and related matters well identify the sort of regime you advocate appeasement towards. It's thus no wonder that you make a beeline to Hiroshima.

Appeasement of the likes of Putin has been a non-starter for the West, and should continue to be so, as such promotes aggression.

I think you very likely understand the Navalny context, but choose to change the subject, while Hiroshima was already extensively litigated in the past. You persistent refusal to stay on topic can likewise be considered cowardly. But as much as you complain about that accusation, looks as though you know we are onto something.

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/tu-quoque

[Paulie97]

The deep state seems to originated this whole shaming crap and making the accusation of being a "Putin lover".Why does the mythical "deep state" need to do that when Trump has done such a marvelous job of it on his own? The Russian spread of disinformation in the lead ups to our elections has been so ever present as to be be common knowledge, yet Trump publicly just took Little Vlad's word for it that it wasn't going on. Trump called Little Vlad's invasion of Ukraine "genius" and "savy," and the list goes on. No "Democrat" conspiracy theories needed, but smart money is now on Trump caring enough about his legacy to refrain from tossing Ukraine under the bus. That's especially once it's clear that Putin is all in and wants it all.

BTW, a lot of Republicans are freedom loving vets that respect Ukraine while realizing that freedom isn't free. That while they are nauseated by appeasement oriented, conspiracy theory chasing keyboard weasels like you and Tiny.

[Paulie97]

"Let's give peace a chance. " Yea, sure, right. Wink.

Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains his maximalist pre-war demands to isolate Ukraine and weaken NATO and reportedly aims to enforce these demands in any possible talks with Western leaders about ending the war in Ukraine. The Financial Times (FT) reported on January 10, citing a former senior Kremlin official and another source who has discussed this topic with Putin, that Putin will maintain his pre-war demands of preventing Ukraine from joining NATO and forcing NATO to withdraw from deployments in Eastern Europe in any such talks by "changing the rules" of the international system to ensure that there are "no threats to Russia," a callback to his December 2021 ultimatum to the United States ahead of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Putin demanded in 2021 that NATO commit to not accepting Ukraine or any other countries as new members; the United States commit to upholding the ban on NATO enlargement; NATO not deploy any military forces to states that became NATO members after May 1997; ban any NATO military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia; ban deployments of intermediate-range missiles in areas that could reach Russian or NATO state territory; and ban the United States from deploying intermediate-range missiles in Europe or nuclear missiles outside of US territory. Putin notably used and intensified this narrative in 2021 to shape the information space and justify the full-scale invasion of Ukraine ahead of his February 2022 full-scale invasion even though the prospect of imminent NATO membership for Ukraine did not drive him to invade Ukraine as he claimed. NATO did not undertake any meaningful actions to expand in Eastern Europe or advance Ukraine's future NATO membership between the 2008 Bucharest Declaration, which promised Ukraine and Georgia eventual NATO membership, and 2022. Putin's December 2021 demands notably extend beyond Ukraine and aim to roll NATO back. The Kremlin likely seeks to resurrect this narrative in an attempt to manipulate Western leaders into acquiescing to Putin's maximalist demands that would weaken NATO under the guise of "compromise" in any future peace negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated on January 10 that the Kremlin is ready to hold talks with Trump without any "preconditions," but ISW continues to assess that no negotiations will result in a meaningful or sustainable peace as long as Putin remains committed to his pre-war demands for full Ukrainian capitulation and the weakening of NATO.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-11-2025

[Sirioja]

Even I love Russia for the interesting country, but I hate crazy shameful Putin, twin with Trump for me, my big support to courageous Ukrainians resisting to keep their land and freedom. I wish Georgia, Romania and Moldavia will follow such courageous example and same for Canada, Greenland / Denmark versus Trump.

[Xpartan]

Navalny and related matters well identify the sort of regime you advocate appeasement towards. It's thus no wonder that you make a beeline to Hiroshima.

Appeasement of the likes of Putin has been a non-starter for the West, and should continue to be so, as such promotes aggression.

I think you very likely understand the Navalny context, but choose to change the subject, while Hiroshima was already extensively litigated in the past. You persistent refusal to stay on topic can likewise be considered cowardly. But as much as you complain about that accusation, looks as though you know we are onto something.

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/tu-quoqueIt feels as if Tiny was trying to develop a fallacy of his own since comparing a politically-motivated murder to a war campaign is way too clumsy to rise up to any known fallacies IMHO.

Say Tiny invokes Dresden or Hiroshima to justify Russia's bombardments of Mariupol (that killed at least TENS of thousands of civilians). That's understandable and predictable and would amount to old, good false analogy.

But this? Simply bizarre.

[Questner]

While we have to say bye-bye to neutrality of the land of fine chocolate (pesking PESCO indeed, https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/media-releases.msg-id-102126.html), here is the Russian Presidential Aide and permanent member of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev about what Russia should expect from the new Washington administration and how to respond to possible shifts in policy towards Russia, quote:

Question: Representatives of the new US administration, in particular, the advisers appointed by Trump, admit in some of their speeches that Russia will under no circumstances cede to Ukraine or anyone else the territories that have already become part of the Russian Federation.

- This is not even up for discussion. The territories that were once governed from Kyiv became part of Russia based on the expression of will of citizens in accordance with international law, the laws of the Russian Federation and the legislation of these regions.

As for the Russian line on Ukraine, it remains unchanged. It is important for us that the tasks of the SMO be solved. They are known and have not changed. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly named them.

It is also important that the world recognizes the inclusion of the DPR, LPR, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions, the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, which are an integral part of our country in accordance with the Constitution, into the Russian Federation.

I would like to emphasize once again that the Ukrainian people remain close to us, fraternal, connected by centuries-old ties with Russia, no matter how much the Kiev propagandists obsessed with "Ukrainianism" claim the opposite. We are not indifferent to what is happening in Ukraine.

What is particularly disturbing is that violent coercion into neo-Nazi ideology and rampant Russophobia are destroying once prosperous cities in Ukraine, including Kharkov, Odessa, Nikolaev, and Dnepropetrovsk.

It is possible that in the coming year Ukraine will cease to exist altogether.

If we talk about specific prospects for further developments taking into account the Trump factor, we respect his statements. I believe that negotiations on Ukraine should be conducted between Russia and the United States without the participation of other Western countries.

There is nothing to talk about with London and Brussels. The EU leadership, for example, has long since lost the right to speak on behalf of many of its members, such as Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Romania and some other European countries interested in stability in Europe and taking a balanced position with respect to Russia.

[Xpartan]

Appeasing the enemy at its finest.

Remember how a few years back The NYT aired allegations that Putin had offered bounties on the lives of the US servicemen in Afghanistan? Back then the US government concluded it was just unsubstantiated rumors.

Turned out, they weren't rumors, and the whole affair doesn't look good for Joe Biden's legacy.


Democrats cited the 2020 New York Times report as evidence that Donald Trump was failing to stand up to Russia. While it was raised by President Joe Biden in a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin just after taking office in 2021, the U.S. took no specific action over the reported operation.

Six former CIA officers who analyzed the intelligence on the GRU's operations in Afghanistan told The Insider its findings "complement and amplify" the conventional wisdom of the U.S. intelligence community.The NYT article came around in 2020, two years before the full-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine. Obviously, the bulk of killings occurred under Trump, but it was Biden who dropped the ball. Now the ball is back in Trump's court. Do you know what he's going to do about it? Absolutely nothing!


A former CIA officer told The Insider: "There are many instances when we got punched in the face and were told to do nothing about it for fear of escalation."https://www.newsweek.com/russia-gru-taliban-american-soldier-bounty-2014673

https://theins.ru/en/politics/277723 - The original The Insider / Der Spiegel story.

[Blood Red]

Remember that propacondom?

He posted it on 01.01, 10 days ago.

Well, AFU left Kurakhove yesterday. As in 01.10.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russians-occupy-kurakhove-donetsk-oblast-233834454.html

How do you know a Russian propacondom is lying? His fingers are moving.I don't know what your dumbass is trying to say here, but I posted facts that the Russians captured Kurakhove. The Ukrainians usually take days to weeks to acknowledge their defeat, but now you know it's true. And since you do not have a military background (or much of a brain), I'd like to inform you that when a city or town is taken, it takes several days / weeks to clear it completely of pockets of resistance.

Also, the Russians captured Toretsk.

P. s Ukraine is winning.

[Blood Red]

Really, so all the nonsense spewed by Medvedev or Russian TV is just some regular Ivan talking shit while getting drunk on a street in Moscow and doesn't have the OK from Putin? Medvedev plays good cop / bad cop. He shouldn't be taken at face value. Someone like Putin or Lavrov, they should.


And the occupied parts from Georgia don't count?Do you even know how the war in Georgia started and who provoked it?




And he learned that only when trying to occupy Kyiv. Zelensky might be a clown, but he didn't run away.The clown will run away along with his billions, just wait for it.




Putin is prodding for a long time trying to find out with what he can get away. Murder people in UK or Germany? Is that OK? Endanger public safety due murdering somebody with polonium or nerve agents? Is that OK? Blow up ammunition depots or kill people involved in the weapons business inside Europe? Cutting undersea cables? How about America blowing up the Nordstream pipleline, was that okay and acceptable?


Who is to say that the next step wouldn't be stirring up unrest in Latvia where there is significant Russian speaking population. Like the west is doing in Georgia and failing?


You are making my point, your neighbours only feel safe when they are part of NATO because they know you too well from history.

Since when is Russia promising that they withdraw from Transnistria? Let's see, they signed an agreement in 1994 that they will withdraw, well it didn't happen. They signed another one in 1999, with a "firm" date of December 2002, that didn't happen either. Last time I checked it's 2025.

Things like this are why your neighbours don't trust you one kopeck.I'm not a Russian or anything close. I just understand why the Ukraine war happened and who provoked it and how easily it could've been prevented. Transnistria like the 4 new territories should decide in a fair referendum whether they want to stay with Russia, be independent or join Molvova / Ukraine.

[Blood Red]

Primarily, to resist paid disinformation and propaganda. I support the cause of democratic liberalism. I want to see a healthy, educated world where there is no armed conflict and international disputes are resolved through legal means.

I had great hopes for the RF after 1992. There was a temporary blossoming of freedom, liberalism and culture, which has been suppressed by Putin's dictatorship. I am an amateur historian and have always had an interest in Russian imperialism, hegemony, territorial aggrandizement and periodic failure. In my opinion, Russia is in a much, much more fragile condition than in either 1917 or 1991. I believe, and I think you know it as well, its failure is inevitable.As I have said, you live in gaga land. You have zero understanding of how the real world works, about international relations and realpolitik.

[Blood Red]

I really want to see how Ukrainian security can be guaranteed in any peace negotiation. Assuming a deal territories against peace, which foreign troops will be allowed by both Russia and Ukraine to guarantee the demarcation line?Certainly no Euro troops will be allowed, no way. They can't be trusted.




I don't think anybody is against peace and for war. I think some people when they say they are for peace, they mean that they are for Ukrainian capitulation. During the last negotiations Russia was asking for a severe limitation in Ukrainian Army size and what weapons they would be allowed, which would guarantee that Ukraine could not defend itself anymore. Security guarantees would depend on a Russian veto. There was a treaty, more than 30 years ago Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons for security and territorial guarantees, Russia signed that treaty. What good is that piece of paper now?You are forgetting that Ukraine was a neutral state, that means no NATO. That is what this war is all about.




Ukraine was neutral in 2014 and there were no talks of the government then that they are asking to join NATO. Then Putin invaded Crimeea. I find it strange that people keep saying "but in 1990 during negotiations some people said NATO would not expand". Maybe, but in the end it was never in any treaty, whatever was in the treaties then was what was accepted by the Soviet leadership at the time. Should Poland, Romania, the Baltic countries be kicked out of NATO because Putin wants that now?
What I find strange is that you totally ignore the western backed coup in 2014 which removed the democratically elected leader of Ukraine. How convenient. Cherry picking events. Why did Russia not take Crimea before 2014? What provoked them into taking Crimea? Put 2 and 2 together.

[Blood Red]

Even I love Russia for the interesting country, but I hate crazy shameful Putin, twin with Trump for me, my big support to courageous Ukrainians resisting to keep their land and freedom. I wish Georgia, Romania and Moldavia will follow such courageous example and same for Canada, Greenland / Denmark versus Trump.Yeah, you want all these countries to get wrecked like Ukraine. Don't you know what happened to Georgia in 2008? Why do you think they are sensible now and want no part of the EU provoked bullshit?

[Blood Red]

About 15,000 Russian military died in the Afghanistan war over 11 years. The Pentagon estimated that 115,000 Russians died in Ukraine up to October, 2024. Russia is dead set on not losing this war. The stakes are higher in its view given it borders Ukraine. Afghanistan to Russia was like Vietnam to the USA. A place that was farther away and not of high strategic importance. Finally, Putin is more determined to come up with, at a minimum, a face saving end to this than Gorbachev was.I do think those Pentagon figures of overall Russian casualties in Ukraine are probably correct or close. The Ukrainians on the other hand have lost close to 700 K. What a horrific needless tragedy thanks to NATO and the collective west. History will not judge these people kindly.

[Sirioja]

Yeah, you want all these countries to get wrecked like Ukraine. Don't you know what happened to Georgia in 2008? Why do you think they are sensible now and want no part of the EU provoked bullshit?Georgia, Ukraine and Moldavia would like to belong to EU, out of Putin fucking elections. Only Hungarian support Putin in Europe, nobody else. We should put Hungary out of EU as long Orban is, when we really don't need them.

[Sirioja]

I do think those Pentagon figures of overall Russian casualties in Ukraine are probably correct or close. The Ukrainians on the other hand have lost close to 700 K. What a horrific needless tragedy thanks to NATO and the collective west. History will not judge these people kindly.Hundreds thousands Russian pieces of meat injured or dead for Putin craziness, when Russians are so blind, when they should never follow such crazy shameful.

[PaulInZurich]

Medvedev plays good cop / bad cop. He shouldn't be taken at face value. Someone like Putin or Lavrov, they should.Medvedev clearly was told that he has to be the clown. An alcoholic clown.



How about America blowing up the Nordstream pipleline, was that okay and acceptable?No.


I just understand why the Ukraine war happened and who provoked it and how easily it could've been prevented. Transnistria like the 4 new territories should decide in a fair referendum whether they want to stay with Russia, be independent or join Molvova / Ukraine.Oh, I am totally for fair referendums. That would mean that people who lived in the area before the invasion get to come back and the elections need international observers. Hint, North Korean observers I would argue cannot be trusted. Since you agree that people should be able to chose in what country they live, let's do a few referendums in Russia as well, starting with a few of the regions in the Caucasus. I am glad we agree on this.

[PaulInZurich]

Certainly no Euro troops will be allowed, no way. They can't be trusted.So, we should trust North Korean troops or what is your proposal?


You are forgetting that Ukraine was a neutral state, that means no NATO. That is what this war is all about.You are forgetting that Ukraine did not ask to join NATO before the invasions in Crimeea and Donbass.



What I find strange is that you totally ignore the western backed coup in 2014 which removed the democratically elected leader of Ukraine. How convenient. Cherry picking events. Why did Russia not take Crimea before 2014? What provoked them into taking Crimea? Put 2 and 2 together.Oh, I did put 2 and 2 together. Russia and its apologists think it is OK for Russia to decide for people of other countries how they should live.

An independent Ukraine with some EU investments would show the Russians that life can be good as long as you try a bit to limit corruption and you get to trade with the free world. Putin wanted none of that.

[Blood Red]

Georgia, Ukraine and Moldavia would like to belong to EU, out of Putin fucking elections. Only Hungarian support Putin in Europe, nobody else. We should put Hungary out of EU as long Orban is, when we really don't need them.Well, Georgia is wisely moving away from the EU and NATO. They don't want to get wrecked like Ukraine did and all for nothing.

[MorandUK]

In a war it's very natural for both sides to lie so I don't listen much what the Russians nor the Ukrainians are saying about the casualties. There are some hints of what is happening in reality though. Moscow Times is a western owned media and have reported that Russia exchanged 501 dead Ukrainians for 89 dead Russians which makes the ratio 1 dead Russian for 5. 5 dead Ukrainians. Although it's not a prove it's nevertheless very strong hint. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-and-ukraine-exchange-bodies-of-nearly-600-fallen-soldiers/ar-AA1svAjv.

[Sirioja]

Well, Georgia is wisely moving away from the EU and NATO. They don't want to get wrecked like Ukraine did and all for nothing.Not Georgian people, but only those supported by Putin who fuck election, like he hold Trump balls in his hand, after Moscow party for Trump.

[Xpartan]

I don't know what your dumbass is trying to say here, but I posted facts that the Russians captured Kurakhove.No Igor, what you posted was a lie, for when you did post what you call "facts", the AFU were still in Kurakhove.


Medvedev plays good cop / bad cop.LOL, the only thing Medvedev plays with is his liver.


Well, Georgia is wisely moving away from the EU and NATO. They don't want to get wrecked like Ukraine did and all for nothing.Ah, another war. Because you're doing so well with this one, LOLOL.

Tell me Igor, when are you planning on attacking Finland and Sweden, AKA the countries Putin PERSONALLY brought into the Nato fold? Now, don't be shy.

[Blood Red]

In a war it's very natural for both sides to lie so I don't listen much what the Russians nor the Ukrainians are saying about the casualties. There are some hints of what is happening in reality though. Moscow Times is a western owned media and have reported that Russia exchanged 501 dead Ukrainians for 89 dead Russians which makes the ratio 1 dead Russian for 5. 5 dead Ukrainians. Although it's not a prove it's nevertheless very strong hint. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-and-ukraine-exchange-bodies-of-nearly-600-fallen-soldiers/ar-AA1svAjv.I find it hilarious and shocking that people buy into the horseshit spewed by the western mainstream media. I mean it's common sense which a lot of people are lacking. This is a war where the main weapon which kills is ARTILLERY. The Russians have about a 1 to 7 ratio in their favor for Artillery. Who is going to kill more? For fucks sake people, wake up and stop believing the lies from the western mainstream media. These are the same people that told you that Saddam had WMD's. These are the same people that told you for years and years that everything was OK in Afghanistan, that the Afghan army was very capable, and US trained and look how that turned out.

[Xpartan]

In a war it's very natural for both sides to lie so I don't listen much what the Russians nor the Ukrainians are saying about the casualties. There are some hints of what is happening in reality though. Moscow Times is a western owned media and have reported that Russia exchanged 501 dead Ukrainians for 89 dead Russians which makes the ratio 1 dead Russian for 5. 5 dead Ukrainians. Although it's not a prove it's nevertheless very strong hint. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-and-ukraine-exchange-bodies-of-nearly-600-fallen-soldiers/ar-AA1svAjv.If you truly believe that Ukraine loses more soldiers than Russia, I have quite a few bridges to sell you. Russians send people into pure meat assaults; they've been on the offence for over a year, and they lose around 2,000 a day since October 2024. Only a complete nutso or Russian propacondom like Blah Blah can utter this nonsense with a straight face.

The exchange reported by the Moscow Times (which, by the way, is an independent outlet and not "a western owned media") has nothing to do with the actual ratio of dead from the both sides. Some of the dead returned from Russia come from the siege of Mariupol in 2022. Others from the areas currently occupied by the Russians. Of course, there will be more dead bodies on the territories controlled by Russia since they're on the offence.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-swap-bodies-soldiers-one-of-biggest-exchanges-of-its-kind

Russia has lost approximately 794,760 soldiers per Ukraine's Euromaidan by the end of December.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/01/04/russias-human-loss-fighting-area-ratio-exceeds-all-modern-conflicts-except-korean-war

You don't trust the Ukrainians. Well, other sources are even less conservative.

Russians have lost over 800,000 dead and gravely wounded since Feb 2022 according to the National Interest.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/jaw-dropping-loss-human-life-russia-ukrainian-war-214355

The highest number for Ukrainian losses has come from "Yuriy Butusov, a well-connected but controversial Ukrainian war correspondent, (who) says that 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since February 2022, with another 35,000 missing. " Other estimates, both from Ukraine and the world are considerably less.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0ewneynypwo

Even if Butusov's estimate is accurate, "the consensus is that Russian casualty figures are far higher than Ukraine's due to their "meat grinder" tactics. ".

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yv75nydy3ot

It's quite likely that 250,000-300,000 Russian occupiers are dead or MIA (which is usually the same thing).

[Sirioja]

I find it hilarious and shocking that people buy into the horseshit spewed by the western mainstream media. I mean it's common sense which a lot of people are lacking. This is a war where the main weapon which kills is ARTILLERY. The Russians have about a 1 to 7 ratio in their favor for Artillery. Who is going to kill more? For fucks sake people, wake up and stop believing the lies from the western mainstream media. These are the same people that told you that Saddam had WMD's. These are the same people that told you for years and years that everything was OK in Afghanistan, that the Afghan army was very capable, and US trained and look how that turned out.Why? You prefer to believe crazy Putin and follow him like too many Russians going to death. Yes, our world have to know Putin is a liar, same like Chinese government. This, when I love Russia, but for sure, not crazy dangerous Putin who has only a now weak army, when he was not even able to defeat Dombas after 3 years, but killed so many children and women.

[Blood Red]

No Igor, what you posted was a lie, for when you did post what you call "facts", the AFU were still in Kurakhove.

Well, shit4 brains, the fact of the matter is that the Russians took Kurakhove and they took Toretsk, just like they will take the rest of the Donbas.

[Blood Red]

Medvedev clearly was told that he has to be the clown. An alcoholic clown.

No.

Oh, I am totally for fair referendums. That would mean that people who lived in the area before the invasion get to come back and the elections need international observers. Hint, North Korean observers I would argue cannot be trusted. Since you agree that people should be able to chose in what country they live, let's do a few referendums in Russia as well, starting with a few of the regions in the Caucasus. I am glad we agree on this.I am all for free and fair referendums. The problem with the collective west is that they don't accept results they do not like. Why was it okay for Kosovo to leave Serbia? Why was it okay for the collective west to change Serbia's borders by force? They set the precedent. The majority of the people in Crimea have always been Russians. They voted overwhelmingly to join Russia. Why is that not okay? Let's be fair here. You seem to be a reasonable person.

[Sirioja]

I am all for free and fair referendums. The problem with the collective west is that they don't accept results they do not like. Why was it okay for Kosovo to leave Serbia? Why was it okay for the collective west to change Serbia's borders by force? They set the precedent. The majority of the people in Crimea have always been Russians. They voted overwhelmingly to join Russia. Why is that not okay? Let's be fair here. You seem to be a reasonable person.Crimea was just fucked by Putin. Ask them if they feel happy now under dictator Putin, when they lost freedom. Same for Georgians, Ukrainians, Romanians and Moldavians. Except blind, no brained Russians, nobody want to be under dictator Putin. Only China, north Korea, Al Assad and some new Africans, for friends, so great friends for Putin. Others just wait his death.

[MorandUK]

It seems people have fixed believes that will not change even when you present evidence on the contrary. In my humble opinion the winners of conflict are the Americans, Russians and the Chinese. Their economies are going strong. The losers are the Europeans and the really big losers the Ukrainians. European economy has suffered and will suffer even more. Ukraine as a nation is devastated. Their population has shrink bellow 28 million and have lost 20% of their land. All that because of a political game the US-UK played against Russia.

https://youtu.be/0Bl6_MAhg_4?si=pAs8KunViszNFR3E&t=3901

[Sirioja]

It seems people have fixed believes that will not change even when you present evidence on the contrary. In my humble opinion the winners of conflict are the Americans, Russians and the Chinese. Their economies are going strong. The losers are the Europeans and the really big losers the Ukrainians. European economy has suffered and will suffer even more. Ukraine as a nation is devastated. Their population has shrink bellow 28 million and have lost 20% of their land. All that because of a political game the US-UK played against Russia.

https://youtu.be/0Bl6_MAhg_4?si=pAs8KunViszNFR3E&t=3901USA always made money with wars, killing their young to make money. Russia is falling and now the world know their army is weak, when they need north Korea help versus Ukraine who is so courageous and such a good example to defend their land and freedom. I wish Canada, Greenland / Denmark will do same. USA game is with China and they will lose, when they fight about same low level productions. High level productions don t care about shit chinese products.

[Xpartan]

Well, shit4 brains, the fact of the matter is that the Russians took Kurakhove and they took Toretsk, just like they will take the rest of the Donbas.I understand your frustration Igor. Of course, you're lying about HAVING TAKEN Toretsk the same way you lied about TAKING Kurakhove two weeks ago, but what the hell -- I'll give you another three days for the rest of Donbas.

[Xpartan]

It seems people have fixed believes that will not change even when you present evidence on the contrary. In my humble opinion the winners of conflict are the Americans, Russians and the Chinese. Their economies are going strong. The losers are the Europeans and the really big losers the Ukrainians. European economy has suffered and will suffer even more. Ukraine as a nation is devastated. Their population has shrink bellow 28 million and have lost 20% of their land. All that because of a political game the US-UK played against Russia.

https://youtu.be/0Bl6_MAhg_4?si=pAs8KunViszNFR3E&t=3901Well, Hello, Igor#5. Sorry for pestering you with these silly things AKA facts. How foolish of me.

[Questner]

Keeping an eye on the bagel and not on a hole.

Gas Wars started with a conflict with 2 Polish brothers.

The Syrian War of 2014 is The First Gas War to oppose the gas from Qatar through the Syrian territory. The regime is gone and Qatar is not going to build the pipeline.

The Ukrainian War is the Second Gas War.

In Summer of 2021 there was a meeting between Biden and Putin in Switzerland. As an outcome the US decided to arm the regime in Kiev, abandon the Minsk agreements, opt for Plan be to invade Donbass and start a Gas War. Biden had all the opportunities for peace but decided to push for war. I don't even ask for moral choice or the spirit of peace. When the last time the US chose the right moral path?

[MorandUK]

Well, Hello, Igor#5. Sorry for pestering you with these silly things AKA facts. How foolish of me.LOL. You should stop taking too much copium. It destroys your brain.

[MorandUK]

USA always made money with wars, killing their young to make money. Russia is falling and now the world know their army is weak, when they need north Korea help versus Ukraine who is so courageous and such a good example to defend their land and freedom. I wish Canada, Greenland / Denmark will do same. USA game is with China and they will lose, when they fight about same low level productions. High level productions don t care about shit chinese products.Zelenski posted a video showing allegedly 2 N Koreans. One of them definitely spoke Korean but at the same time there are some ethnic Koreans living in Russia. Nevertheless I believe they are N Koreans but I don't believe 10,000 troops are there to help. The most likely scenario is for them to be in Kursk to acquire fighting experience. What difference does it make for Russia who has 700,000 soldiers in Ukraine to add 10,000 more? Regarding the "courageous" Ukrainians it's a matter of interpretation. Yes the Ukrainians have fight well and had few successes here and there but for what? For the right to enter NATO? Switzerland and Austria are outside NATO and they are prospering and so could Ukraine. This war should never have happened.

[Blood Red]

I understand your frustration Igor. Of course, you're lying about HAVING TAKEN Toretsk the same way you lied about TAKING Kurakhove two weeks ago, but what the hell -- I'll give you another three days for the rest of Donbas.Delusional and dumb.

As for the rest of the Donbas, my prediction is by the end of summer 2025, the Russians will take all of it.

[PaulInZurich]

Switzerland and Austria are outside NATO and they are prospering and so could Ukraine. Google "map of Europe". Try to find on the map the location of Switzerland and Austria. Compare with the location of Ukraine. See if you can spot the difference and report back. Hint: focus on who the neighbouring countries are.

[Sirioja]

Zelenski posted a video showing allegedly 2 N Koreans. One of them definitely spoke Korean but at the same time there are some ethnic Koreans living in Russia. Nevertheless I believe they are N Koreans but I don't believe 10,000 troops are there to help. The most likely scenario is for them to be in Kursk to acquire fighting experience. What difference does it make for Russia who has 700,000 soldiers in Ukraine to add 10,000 more? Regarding the "courageous" Ukrainians it's a matter of interpretation. Yes the Ukrainians have fight well and had few successes here and there but for what? For the right to enter NATO? Switzerland and Austria are outside NATO and they are prospering and so could Ukraine. This war should never have happened.This war only happened because of crazy Putin, when Ukraine, Georgia, Moldavia and Crimea before, don t want to belong to him and Ukraine never wanted to attack Russia. Nobody in the world never wanted to attack Russia, but ex unknown in KGB just dream to make again USSR but without socialism, but money for his castles. And Trump would like to do same with Canada and Greenland, when they are like the 2 crazy twins. I really wish heroic Ukrainians will resist to weak Russian army, for love of freedom.

[Tiny 12]

When the last time the US chose the right moral path?Maybe some day again,

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1b/ElbeDay1945_%28NARA_ww2-121%29.jpg/1024px-ElbeDay1945_%28NARA_ww2-121%29.jpg

[Tiny 12]

If you truly believe that Ukraine loses more soldiers than Russia, I have quite a few bridges to sell you. Russians send people into pure meat assaults; they've been on the offence for over a year, and they lose around 2,000 a day since October 2024. Only a complete nutso or Russian propacondom like Blah Blah can utter this nonsense with a straight face.

The exchange reported by the Moscow Times (which, by the way, is an independent outlet and not "a western owned media") has nothing to do with the actual ratio of dead from the both sides. Some of the dead returned from Russia come from the siege of Mariupol in 2022. Others from the areas currently occupied by the Russians. Of course, there will be more dead bodies on the territories controlled by Russia since they're on the offence.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-swap-bodies-soldiers-one-of-biggest-exchanges-of-its-kind

Russia has lost approximately 794,760 soldiers per Ukraine's Euromaidan by the end of December.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/01/04/russias-human-loss-fighting-area-ratio-exceeds-all-modern-conflicts-except-korean-war

You don't trust the Ukrainians. Well, other sources are even less conservative.

Russians have lost over 800,000 dead and gravely wounded since Feb 2022 according to the National Interest.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/jaw-dropping-loss-human-life-russia-ukrainian-war-214355

The highest number for Ukrainian losses has come from "Yuriy Butusov, a well-connected but controversial Ukrainian war correspondent, (who) says that 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since February 2022, with another 35,000 missing. " Other estimates, both from Ukraine and the world are considerably less.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0ewneynypwo

Even if Butusov's estimate is accurate, "the consensus is that Russian casualty figures are far higher than Ukraine's due to their "meat grinder" tactics. ".

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yv75nydy3ot

It's quite likely that 250,000-300,000 Russian occupiers are dead or MIA (which is usually the same thing).You're comparing Russian casualties, which include people who were wounded or injured, to Ukrainian deaths. And no, not all of those wounds and injuries were "grave. " Where did the 250,000 to 300,000 estimate for deaths and MIA come from? I don't know about Russia, but seriously doubt that all those 35,000 Ukrainian MIA's are dead. Some are part of the 6 million Ukrainians who left their country because of this never ending war.

[Tiny 12]

An independent Ukraine with some EU investments would show the Russians that life can be good as long as you try a bit to limit corruption and you get to trade with the free world. Putin wanted none of that.Admittedly changing the subject, could EU membership for Ukraine combined with a commitment that Ukraine would not join NATO serve as a pathway to end the war? The EU might just save money in the long run. It would have to subsidize the Ukrainian economy to raise it to EU standards. But the Europeans wouldn't be spending money on a senseless war.

[Tiny 12]

Appeasing the enemy at its finest.

Remember how a few years back The NYT aired allegations that Putin had offered bounties on the lives of the US servicemen in Afghanistan? Back then the US government concluded it was just unsubstantiated rumors.

Turned out, they weren't rumors, and the whole affair doesn't look good for Joe Biden's legacy.

The NYT article came around in 2020, two years before the full-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine. Obviously, the bulk of killings occurred under Trump, but it was Biden who dropped the ball. Now the ball is back in Trump's court. Do you know what he's going to do about it? Absolutely nothing!

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-gru-taliban-american-soldier-bounty-2014673

https://theins.ru/en/politics/277723 - The original The Insider / Der Spiegel story.Well, the $200,000 bounty is a bargain, if you believe the Pentagon's estimate of Russian war dead is reasonable, like Blood Red and I do. The $65.9 billion the USA has provided Ukraine in military aid since 2022 works out to over $500,000 per Russian war death. You might more than double that if you include aid from the Europeans.

Seriously, your link says, "The White House said in 2021 it had "low to moderate confidence" in the claims" the bounties existed. And the USA armed Mujahideen against Russia in Afghanistan years ago. That didn't work out too well.

Hopefully someday Russia and the USA will be on the same side again in the war against terrorism.

[Tiny 12]

Navalny and related matters well identify the sort of regime you advocate appeasement towards. It's thus no wonder that you make a beeline to Hiroshima.

Appeasement of the likes of Putin has been a non-starter for the West, and should continue to be so, as such promotes aggression.

I think you very likely understand the Navalny context, but choose to change the subject, while Hiroshima was already extensively litigated in the past. You persistent refusal to stay on topic can likewise be considered cowardly. But as much as you complain about that accusation, looks as though you know we are onto something.

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/tu-quoque"Cowardly. " I get it. You have a tough time justifying an endless war against Russia that will result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands, so you use that Ad Hominem crap to go after the messenger. Do you think Navalny's death is part of the justification to conduct proxy warfare against Russia forever?

There was an article in the Financial Times the other day about Nayib Bukele, president of El Salvador. He has the highest approval rating of any world leader. And yes, members of his political opposition have died on his watch. The leader with the second highest approval rating is Vladimir Putin. The FT may have overstated his level of approval among Russians, but it's certainly higher than that of Biden, Harris or Trump among Americans.

The world as it exists may not meet your ideal. Trying to change it so it does will cost a lot of money, result in a lot of deaths, and make the world a more dangerous place. And it will never be successful.


...Russia's bombardments of Mariupol (that killed at least TENS of thousands of civilians). I don't believe that. Yeah, a lot died, but not tens of thousands if you're referring to civilians.

If Russia wanted a land bridge to Crimea, it had to take Mariupol. The detonation of the bomb at Hiroshima above the residential and commercial center of the city, and specific targeting of residential areas of Dresden were in a league of their own. I don't believe that was the case with Mariupol, although you'd know better than I would. Please feel free to reply if you don't mind quoqing.

[Xpartan]

You're comparing Russian casualties, which include people who were wounded or injured, to Ukrainian deaths. And no, not all of those wounds and injuries were "grave. " Where did the 250,000 to 300,000 estimate for deaths and MIA come from? I don't know about Russia, but seriously doubt that all those 35,000 Ukrainian MIA's are dead. Some are part of the 6 million Ukrainians who left their country because of this never ending war.1. There are around 2 wounded for 1 dead estimated for the Russians and 4-5 wounded for 1 dead among the Ukrainians. Currently, there are over 800,000 Russian casualties. Do the math.

2. The dead estimates come from the Ukrainian, British and US security agencies. I've provided the links to these sources multiple times. The MIA are separate estimates, which are 50,000-100,000 for Russians and 35,000 for Ukrainians. Most MIAs turn out dead, which is a common denominator of all wars, not just this one.

3. Your disrespectful joke about Ukrainian MIAs being missed because they'd left their country is on you.

[Xpartan]

Well, the $200,000 bounty is a bargain, if you believe the Pentagon's estimate of Russian war dead is reasonable, like Blood Red and I do. The $65.9 billion the USA has provided Ukraine in military aid since 2022 works out to over $500,000 per Russian war death. You might more than double that if you include aid from the Europeans.

Seriously, your link says, "The White House said in 2021 it had "low to moderate confidence" in the claims" the bounties existed. And the USA armed Mujahideen against Russia in Afghanistan years ago. That didn't work out too well.

Hopefully someday Russia and the USA will be on the same side again in the war against terrorism.The US and Europe are helping Ukraine to defend its country from a military aggression.

Russians paid Afghan terrorists to kill US servicemen for spite.

This should give a pause even to Russophiles with a great deal of moral flexibility like yourself.

[Tiny 12]

3. Your disrespectful joke about Ukrainian MIAs being missed because they'd left their country is on you.That absolutely was not a joke. It's the reality. Please see this:

https://apnews.com/article/deserters-awol-ukraine-russia-war-def676562552d42bc5d593363c9e5ea0

And these men are not cowards.

[Blood Red]

Currently, there are over 800,000 Russian casualties. Do the math.
Comical. I bet you also believe Zelensky's number of 35 K for Ukrainian casualties that he stated a while back.

Like I said, this is a war where the main mode of killing is by ARTILLERY. The Russians have a 7 to 1 advantage in artillery, and even a 10 to 1 in some places. Do the math which side will lose more men. You're a dumbass and delusional so it's pointless telling that to you, but anyone with half a brain will put 2 and 2 together which excludes you of course.

[PaulInZurich]

Admittedly changing the subject, could EU membership for Ukraine combined with a commitment that Ukraine would not join NATO serve as a pathway to end the war? The EU might just save money in the long run. It would have to subsidize the Ukrainian economy to raise it to EU standards. But the Europeans wouldn't be spending money on a senseless war.Ukraine had zero chance to join NATO after Crimeea was invaded. NATO would not allow a new country to join that has major territorial disputes with a non NATO country that is a major power as well. Let's not forget you need all NATO members to agree to a new joiner.

[Xpartan]

That absolutely was not a joke. It's the reality. Please see this:

https://apnews.com/article/deserters-awol-ukraine-russia-war-def676562552d42bc5d593363c9e5ea0

And these men are not cowards.You claimed in your response that some of Ukrainian MIAs are those who had left their country. Now it's deserters. Make up your mind, maybe?


Comical. I bet you also believe Zelensky's number of 35 K for Ukrainian casualties that he stated a while back.

Like I said, this is a war where the main mode of killing is by ARTILLERY. The Russians have a 7 to 1 advantage in artillery, and even a 10 to 1 in some places. Do the math which side will lose more men. You're a dumbass and delusional so it's pointless telling that to you, but anyone with half a brain will put 2 and 2 together which excludes you of course.1. You don't have a 7 to 1 advantage in artillery, the real average number is 3 to 1.

2. The Ukrainians have learned to counter your artillery advantage with drones.

3. The advancing troops always lose more people than the defenders.

4. Furthermore, you are military degenerates who advance with complete disregard for the lives of your own soldiers. Your MO is:

- dumb, primitive and criminal meat assaults.

- lack of support from tanks, IFVs and other fighting vehicles providing cover for the infantry.

- lack of, or even refusal from medical evacuation teams to bring the wounded to safety.

This is how you lose insane number of combatants. Since October 2024, you're losing around 2,000 a day, and before then 1,500 a day.

I did the math Igor. You do yours. Or better yet, tell your superiors to come up with a better narrative (although, that would require some balls, so I stand corrected).

[Blood Red]

Crimea was just fucked by Putin. Ask them if they feel happy now under dictator Putin, when they lost freedom. Same for Georgians, Ukrainians, Romanians and Moldavians. Except blind, no brained Russians, nobody want to be under dictator Putin. Only China, north Korea, Al Assad and some new Africans, for friends, so great friends for Putin. Others just wait his death.You failed to answer my questions regarding Serbia and Kosovo. Like I said, the precedence of changing borders in Europe by force was set by NATO.

[Tiny 12]

You claimed in your response that some of Ukrainian MIAs are those who had left their country. Now it's deserters. Make up your mind, maybe?
.I think we're both missing the bigger picture Xpartan. The costs on both sides have been horrendous. The West should be enabling peace instead of war IMO.

[PaulInZurich]

I am all for free and fair referendums. The problem with the collective west is that they don't accept results they do not like. Why was it okay for Kosovo to leave Serbia? Why was it okay for the collective west to change Serbia's borders by force? They set the precedent. The majority of the people in Crimea have always been Russians. They voted overwhelmingly to join Russia. Why is that not okay? Let's be fair here. You seem to be a reasonable person.I believed at the time that allowing Kosovo to secede was a mistake long term, it just opened Pandora's box for border redrawing borders world wide. After that any authoritarian country got their excuse.

I don't pretend to really understand the situation in the Balkans, it's really complicated. I understand that the Albanians in Kosovo were severely oppressed since at least the 80's and by the time heavy violence broke out, the Yugoslav wars were already in full swing since a few years with the odd massacre of civilians here and there. Obviously nobody felt safe at the time in any part of ex Yugoslavia. I wish it would have been possible that the situation could have been solved by a lot of autonomy for the province at the time with security guarantees.

Sure, Crimeea voted to join Russia. Would they have won in free and fair elections? Maybe, but we will never know. You can't honestly say though that those were free and fair elections. I wonder if there were ever free and fair elections in any place controlled by Russia.

[Xpartan]

I think we're both missing the bigger picture Xpartan. The costs on both sides have been horrendous. The West should be enabling peace instead of war IMO.And how is the West supposed to do this? By cutting off the military assistance? By making Ukraine capitulate? By ensuring that the next war is 100% inevitable?

How about some specifics instead of your cheap and pointless Kumbaya?

[Xpartan]

I believed at the time that allowing Kosovo to secede was a mistake long term, it just opened Pandora's box for border redrawing borders world wide. After that any authoritarian country got their excuse.

I don't pretend to really understand the situation in the Balkans, it's really complicated. I understand that the Albanians in Kosovo were severely oppressed since at least the 80's and by the time heavy violence broke out, the Yugoslav wars were already in full swing since a few years with the odd massacre of civilians here and there. Obviously nobody felt safe at the time in any part of ex Yugoslavia. I wish it would have been possible that the situation could have been solved by a lot of autonomy for the province at the time with security guarantees.

Sure, Crimeea voted to join Russia. Would they have won in free and fair elections? Maybe, but we will never know. You can't honestly say though that those were free and fair elections. I wonder if there were ever free and fair elections in any place controlled by Russia.Kosovo might've been a mistake simply because there was no rhyme or reason of creating another Albanian country in Europe run by a terrorist and criminal organization. Additionally, while Kosovar Albanians were oppressed by the Miloshevich's Yugoslav Army, they also oppressed Kosovar Serbs. Ethnic cleansing is never straightforward.

That said the hindsight is always twenty-twenty. By 1999, Milosevich had lied so much and committed so many atrocities that no one would believe anything coming out of his mouth. The Nato just had enough. Besides, after the Rwandan Genocide, no one, and Clinton less than any, had an appetite to wait what happens in Kosovo and hope for the best.

[Blood Red]

I believed at the time that allowing Kosovo to secede was a mistake long term, it just opened Pandora's box for border redrawing borders world wide. After that any authoritarian country got their excuse.Exactly, it opened up Pandora's box as you rightfully said. And it proved that NATO is NOT a defensive alliance. It is an offensive imperialist alliance.




I don't pretend to really understand the situation in the Balkans, it's really complicated. I understand that the Albanians in Kosovo were severely oppressed since at least the 80's and by the time heavy violence broke out, the Yugoslav wars were already in full swing since a few years with the odd massacre of civilians here and there. Obviously nobody felt safe at the time in any part of ex Yugoslavia. I wish it would have been possible that the situation could have been solved by a lot of autonomy for the province at the time with security guarantees.Agree. If you know the history, that's what Russia / Putin wanted for the Donbas with the Minsk accords.




Sure, Crimeea voted to join Russia. Would they have won in free and fair elections? Maybe, but we will never know. You can't honestly say though that those were free and fair elections. I wonder if there were ever free and fair elections in any place controlled by Russia.As I said to you, the collective west only accepts election results which they like. Remember when the people of Gaza voted for Hamas in a fair election? The west didn't like the result so they sanctioned them and supported the criminal Israeli blockade.

The vast majority of the Crimean population has always been Russian. They voted to join Russia overwhelmingly. And always remember, Putin only acted to take Crimea in 2014 after the west backed Maidan coup which opened the doors for NATO to enter Ukraine and hence seize Crimea. The Russians were never going to allow that. So you must look at what brought on the Crimea takeover. And I appreciate your honest posts.

[Blood Red]

You claimed in your response that some of Ukrainian MIAs are those who had left their country. Now it's deserters. Make up your mind, maybe?

1. You don't have a 7 to 1 advantage in artillery, the real average number is 3 to 1.

2. The Ukrainians have learned to counter your artillery advantage with drones.

3. The advancing troops always lose more people than the defenders.

4. Furthermore, you are military degenerates who advance with complete disregard for the lives of your own soldiers. Your MO is:
5. Ukraine is winning.

[PaulInZurich]

Kosovo might've been a mistake simply because there was no rhyme or reason of creating another Albanian country in Europe run by a terrorist and criminal organization. Additionally, while Kosovar Albanians were oppressed by the Miloshevich's Yugoslav Army, they also oppressed Kosovar Serbs. Ethnic cleansing is never straightforward.

That said the hindsight is always twenty-twenty. By 1999, Milosevich had lied so much and committed so many atrocities that no one would believe anything coming out of his mouth. The Nato just had enough. Besides, after the Rwandan Genocide, no one, and Clinton less than any, had an appetite to wait what happens in Kosovo and hope for the best.I agree with all of the above. Both the Serbs and Albanians committed war crimes. Milosevici was a war criminal. The Rwandan genocide had a huge influence on the decision to intervene especially considering that massacres already happened for years in the Balkans after 1990.

Side note: I know very well somebody who worked for the UNHCR in Rwanda and DRC at the time. The things she saw over there and the impact it had on her is unimaginable.

[Elvis 2008]

And how is the West supposed to do this? By cutting off the military assistance? By making Ukraine capitulate? By ensuring that the next war is 100% inevitable?

How about some specifics instead of your cheap and pointless Kumbaya?Well, the first thing that needs to be done is all the dumb Dems need to let go of their dicks and stop with the masturbation fantasies about the Russian economy failing, Putin being taken out of office, and Ukraine winning. So step one is Dumb Dems quit jerking off.

Step two is dumb Dems get it through their thick skulls that there is no peace without Putin. The West has made peace and deals with evil tyrants in the past and we will in the future. If you really feel like Putin is so evil, then get off your ass and go fight. You can talk all tough behind the keyboard but I think if you see people with their faces blown off and artillery shells flying over head, you would be crying like a baby screaming, "I want peace. ".

Step three is another thing dumb Dems do not get. You pick up the phone and talk to Putin. Biden has not spoken with Putin in years, but Biden is so demented I bet he thinks he has.

Step four is to ask Putin what it takes to stop the war and negotiate a settlement. Usually a settlement involves neither side getting all that they want but negotiating something they both can live with.

And before you gripe about step four, you have to do steps one through three.

And while Biden and the rest of the dumb Dems have been keeping their hands on their dicks, Putin has been gaining a stronger position day by day. If the dumb Dems were still in control, it would just be a a matter of time before our best negotiating position would be singing Kumbaya.

[Xpartan]

You claimed in your response that some of Ukrainian MIAs are those who had left their country. Now it's deserters. Make up your mind, maybe?

1. You don't have a 7 to 1 advantage in artillery, the real average number is 3 to 1.

2. The Ukrainians have learned to counter your artillery advantage with drones.

3. The advancing troops always lose more people than the defenders.

4. Furthermore, you are military degenerates who advance with complete disregard for the lives of your own soldiers. Your MO is:

- dumb, primitive and criminal meat assaults.

- lack of support from tanks, IFVs and other fighting vehicles providing cover for the infantry.

- lack of, or even refusal from medical evacuation teams to bring the wounded to safety.

This is how you lose insane number of combatants. Since October 2024, you're losing around 2,000 a day, and before then 1,500 a day.

I did the math Igor. You do yours. Or better yet, tell your superiors to come up with a better narrative (although, that would require some balls, so I stand corrected).


5. Ukraine is winning.Some might find it strange that Igor uses this nonsensical "Ukraine is winning" meme in dozens of his poorly-baked posts. There are two reasons. He usually posts it when there are no arguments left, but he still has to say something. But there's another reason too.

How Putin's Russia turned humour into a weapon

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46567364


In the dying days of the Soviet Union, Russians used humour to escape the bleak reality of economic stagnation, food shortages and long queues.

Political satire flourished on TV in the form of latex puppets during the 1990s, but it was quickly slapped down when Vladimir Putin came to power.

In today's Russia, where the media is largely controlled by the Kremlin and its allies, there is little room for genuine political humour unless it is used to deflect the blame from the government.

How Russia turns criticism into a joke

Humour and ridicule were a key part of Moscow's response when the UK said it was "highly likely" that Russia was behind the poisoning of former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia, in Salisbury.

Russian officials and media figures have since tried to turn the English phrase "highly likely" into a mocking catchphrase that implies Russia is being blamed for everything with the flimsiest of evidence.

They have enlisted a range of popular figures from English literature, such as Agatha Christie's Hercule Poirot and Conan Doyle's Sherlock Holmes, to ridicule British allegations of Russian involvement in the poisoning which they denounce as unfounded.

Roman Dobrokhotov, whose investigative website The Insider was involved in exposing one of the two poisoning suspects, Anatoliy Chepiga, says such mockery is a form of trolling designed to "deliberately lower the level of discussion".

How the strategy works

"They cannot respond in a serious fashion and to the point, so they start to play-act. This is an attempt to mock, to reduce everything to nothing," Mr Dobrokhotov told the BBC.

Along with conspiracy theories and misleading narratives, he argues, this kind of tactic aims to sow doubt.

The result is that many will watch TV and decide there is no way of really getting to the bottom of what happened. In other words, he says: "no-one is a saint, truth does not exist".

Internet audiences are also a key target for this technique

One social media hashtag - #IamFromGRUToo - appeared to be inspired by the #MeToo movement. Pro-Kremlin Twitter-users mocked UK allegations against Russia's GRU (now GU) military intelligence agency.

One spoof job advert joked that the GRU was "looking for employees for its cyber-attack department, chemical weapons department and election-meddling unit. There is no need to apply - we will find you ourselves".

Ben Nimmo, an Atlantic Council researcher on Russian disinformation, told the BBC that attempts to create funny memes were part of the strategy as "disinformation for the information age".

While humour was once a threat to their Soviet predecessors, the Kremlin has now turned it to their advantage.

[Questner]

NOVO-OGARYOVO, January 20. / TASS /. Russia is open to communication with the incoming US administration about the Ukrainian conflict, and sees elimination of the root causes of the crisis as the priority, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting of the country's Security Council.

"We are also open to dialogue with the new US administration about the Ukrainian conflict. The most important thing there is to eliminate the root causes of the crisis, which we have talked about many times. This is the most essential thing," he said.

According to Putin, Moscow has taken note of statements by Trump and his team about the desire to reinstate communication and the need to make every effort to avert World War III.

Trump repeatedly said on his campaign trail that, if he won the election, he would settle the Ukrainian conflict within 24 hours. The incoming president reiterated a few hours back that he would put an end to the conflict in Ukraine, stop the chaos in the Middle East and prevent World War III.

[John Clayton]

...The vast majority of the Crimean population has always been Russian...That is a pure lie -- complete, unmitigated and utter Russian propaganda. The true history of Crimea since Russian conquest in 1784 has been the attempt to extirpate Crimean identity and control the Tatars, which culminated in the Tatar expulsion of 1944. There may be a current Russian majority, but it is due to their centuries of ethnic cleansing, murder and racism.

[PaulInZurich]

I see that Trump cult members stumbled in this thread. Can a Trump cult member explain to me how come Trump didn't stop the war in 24 hours, he guaranteed that multiple times during the campaign and of course he would never lie? Can a Trump cult member explain the brilliant plan of threatening Greenland and Panama and how that will contribute to a stable geostrategic situation? The problem with cult members is that they lack any critical thinking, all they do is parrot what Dear Leader is saying. For example, Tik Tok. For years Trump and republicans (and democrats as well) said how bad Tik Tok is, how bad is that the CCP controls it etc. The sheeples kept repeating "TikTok baaad, TikTok baaad". Republicans manage to get a bill through Congress (with enough democratic support), Biden signs it. Then the Tik Tok CEO makes a pilgrimage to Florida, pays some bribe in full daylight and who knows how much is the bribe we are not aware of, then suddenly Trump proclaims "Tik Tok is good". All the sheeples immediately start saying "Tik Tok goood, TikTok goood".

Before you start making this into a democrat vs republican thing. Both parties have some idiotic positions. Unfortunately the American political system is idiotic as well and you are stuck in choosing between two collections of positions that contain a bunch of idiotic positions.

The biggest success of Putin is that he managed to get half of the Republican party to do his bidding. Roland Reagan must be turning in his grave.

[Paulie97]

Well, the first thing that needs to be done is all the dumb Dems need to let go of their dicks and stop with the masturbation fantasies about the Russian economy failing...Is Trump a dumb Dem?

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/21/europe/analysis-trump-putin-ukraine-intl-latam/index.html

Aside from the significant economic problems, Russia has suffered in the range of 700,000 casualties and are getting hit insides their borders.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwypg2z780go


If you really feel like Putin is so evil, then get off your ass and go fight. This asinine non-argument has been answered a dozen times already. We'll fight if someone invades our country. In the meantime we will advocate support for Ukrainians who wish to fight for their country and identity.


You can talk all tough behind the keyboard but I think if you see people with their faces blown off and artillery shells flying over head, you would be crying like a baby screaming, "I want peace. ". This is a spit in the face to every Ukrainian that has put his life on the line for his country, while assuming that those who support their actions wouldn't do the same for their own country. It's you that is the big keyboard coward. How many members here have you met up with to talk this trash to eye to eye? That's a good question to entertain. Smart money is on zero.


Step four is to ask Putin what it takes to stop the war and negotiate a settlement. Usually a settlement involves neither side getting all that they want but negotiating something they both can live with. Putin has already been asked that question and given the answers. He wants Ukraine, full capitulation. Well sourced articles have been posted, as well as the costs to the West of giving him the Ukraine. We will see what if anything Trump can accomplish. The jury is still out.

Putin out of power, then fruitful negotiations to follow with the powers that replace him isn't a far fetched scenario, especially with increased Western pressure and military support, though we know you want it to be. This also doesn't involve a "Ukraine win" as was your straw man argument.

These are the logical fallacies you have going BTW, the straw man and proof by repetition. All are fallacious and not arguments at all. It's dishonesty and represents an inability to engage in genuine debate.

https://grammarist.com/rhetoric/straw-man-fallacy/

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_nauseam

P.S. Attacking the arguments of 60+ year old American men because they aren't volunteering to fight in Ukraine is technically an ad hominem fallacy, though I typically let those slide as they are about par for the course on stupid shit threads. I opted to just make you look stupid and hypocritical instead.

[Xpartan]

Well, the first thing that needs to be done is all the dumb Dems need to let go of their dicks and stop with the masturbation fantasies about the Russian economy failing, Putin being taken out of office, and Ukraine winning. So step one is Dumb Dems quit jerking off.

Step two is dumb Dems get it through their thick skulls that there is no peace without Putin. The West has made peace and deals with evil tyrants in the past and we will in the future. If you really feel like Putin is so evil, then get off your ass and go fight. You can talk all tough behind the keyboard but I think if you see people with their faces blown off and artillery shells flying over head, you would be crying like a baby screaming, "I want peace. ".

Step three is another thing dumb Dems do not get. You pick up the phone and talk to Putin. Biden has not spoken with Putin in years, but Biden is so demented I bet he thinks he has.

Step four is to ask Putin what it takes to stop the war and negotiate a settlement. Usually a settlement involves neither side getting all that they want but negotiating something they both can live with.

And before you gripe about step four, you have to do steps one through three.

And while Biden and the rest of the dumb Dems have been keeping their hands on their dicks, Putin has been gaining a stronger position day by day. If the dumb Dems were still in control, it would just be a a matter of time before our best negotiating position would be singing Kumbaya.So what's the problem?

Why hasn't it been done already? Your LAS has been in office for several hours now:

Didn't he pledge to end the war in one hour, even before the inauguration?

What's the delay now?

Well, I'll let you in on a little secret -- I'm happy the ball's in Trump's court now. And after he has INEVITABLY failed to bring peace to Ukraine and win his fucking Nobel Prize, I'll be back to taunt you Putin's cocksuckers to no end.

Tick-tock.

[Blood Red]

That is a pure lie -- complete, unmitigated and utter Russian propaganda. The true history of Crimea since Russian conquest in 1784 has been the attempt to extirpate Crimean identity and control the Tatars, which culminated in the Tatar expulsion of 1944. There may be a current Russian majority, but it is due to their centuries of ethnic cleansing, murder and racism.Would you agree that the vast majority of the Crimean population since from 2014 up to now is Russian? That's why they all voted to join Russia. Majority is authority. I hope it's clear to you. You may not like the results, but you should accept them since you're all for democracy, right?

[Blood Red]

Some might find it strange that Igor uses this nonsensical "Ukraine is winning" meme in dozens of his poorly-baked posts. There are two reasons. He usually posts it when there are no arguments left, but he still has to say something. But there's another reason too.

How Putin's Russia turned humour into a weapon

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46567364So Ukraine isn't winning?

[Elvis 2008]

So Ukraine isn't winning?Yes, Ukraine is winning. Putin is on his last legs and a Gandhi like candidate is emerging to replace him promising strength through peace. Russians are having to use wheelbarrows full of money to pay for a loaf of bread, and the Ukrainian army is literally on the outskirts of Moscow.

Oh, sorry, that is not right. I just wanted to see what it felt to be a Democratic douche jacking off.

[Elvis 2008]

Would you agree that the vast majority of the Crimean population since from 2014 up to now is Russian? That's why they all voted to join Russia. Majority is authority. I hope it's clear to you. You may not like the results, but you should accept them since you're all for democracy, right?Not anymore. The dumb Dems had a leader who was not there mentally and the deep state ran things from 2020 to this year. Once it was learned their figurehead leader was incompetent, the deep state staged a coup against him before the 2024 election. This is after planning the Russiagate coup after the 2016 election. So the dumb Dems not want a duly elected leader and have no respect for elections. They prefer the deep state organizations like the CIA and FBI be the ones running things and do not give a damn what voters want.

[Paulie97]

Would you agree that the vast majority of the Crimean population since from 2014 up to now is Russian? That's why they all voted to join Russia. Majority is authority. I hope it's clear to you. You may not like the results, but you should accept them since you're all for democracy, right?You misunderstand Ivan. We don't advocate democracy at the barrel of a gun. This while established borders are just that. Any in Crimea that wants to be Russian has long been free to pack up and go live there.

[Paulie97]

Not anymore. The dumb Dems had a leader who was not there mentally and the deep state ran things from 2020 to this year. Once it was learned their figurehead leader was incompetent, the deep state staged a coup against him before the 2024 election. This is after planning the Russiagate coup after the 2016 election. So the dumb Dems not want a duly elected leader and have no respect for elections. They prefer the deep state organizations like the CIA and FBI be the ones running things and do not give a damn what voters want.You are a third rate Alex Jones, but this is the fallacy Elvis has going this time. That while he's long been well aware that support for Ukraine has been and still is bipartisan.

https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Appeal-to-Ridicule

[Paulie97]

So what's the problem?

Why hasn't it been done already? Your LAS has been in office for several hours now:

Didn't he pledge to end the war in one hour, even before the inauguration?

What's the delay now?

Well, I'll let you in on a little secret -- I'm happy the ball's in Trump's court now. And after he has INEVITABLY failed to bring peace to Ukraine and win his fucking Nobel Prize, I'll be back to taunt you Putin's cocksuckers to no end.

Tick-tock.They have exactly what they want now. The only problem is that Little Vlad is all in. He's not interested in any genuine "compromise. " he made that all clear from the start with his speech re-writing history while denying Ukraine's right to existence.

https://www.rochester.edu/newscenter/ukraine-history-fact-checking-putin-513812/

[Paulie97]

Yes, Ukraine is winning. Putin is on his last legs and a Gandhi like candidate is emerging to replace him promising strength through peace. Russians are having to use wheelbarrows full of money to pay for a loaf of bread, and the Ukrainian army is literally on the outskirts of Moscow.

Oh, sorry, that is not right. I just wanted to see what it felt to be a Democratic douche jacking off.This post is actually the one that best matches the fallacy "Appeal to Ridicule," though with Elvis they are all essentially the same. Wink.

https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Appeal-to-Ridicule

[Blood Red]

Yes, Ukraine is winning. Putin is on his last legs and a Gandhi like candidate is emerging to replace him promising strength through peace. Russians are having to use wheelbarrows full of money to pay for a loaf of bread, and the Ukrainian army is literally on the outskirts of Moscow.

Oh, sorry, that is not right. I just wanted to see what it felt to be a Democratic douche jacking off.Haha.

The Russians are running out of ammo. The Russians are fighting with shovels.

[Blood Red]

I see that Trump cult members stumbled in this thread. Can a Trump cult member explain to me how come Trump didn't stop the war in 24 hours, he guaranteed that multiple times during the campaign and of course he would never lie? That is Trump talk. Hyperbole. I don't think anyone that anyone who understands how complicated this conflict is took what Trump said seriously. I certainly didn't.

[Paulie97]

Haha.

The Russians are running out of ammo. The Russians are fighting with shovels.Are you laughing about the 700,000 + casualties? Your mothers aren't laughing.

You'll have a tough time laughing this off as well.

https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/12/russia-economy-difficulties?lang=en

But take heart, you have a friend in Elvis, one of a number of fringe Americans that lives to prop up your narratives.

[Paulie97]

Would you agree that the vast majority of the Crimean population since from 2014 up to now is Russian? That's why they all voted to join Russia. Majority is authority. I hope it's clear to you. You may not like the results, but you should accept them since you're all for democracy, right?Why do you omit this important information?

"Crimea's final chapter before its 2014 annexation by Russia was as the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (ARC). A part of independent Ukraine and the only self-governing region within unitary Ukraine, the ARC had its own constitution, prime minister and parliament. Although the Crimean constitution protected the special status of the Russian language, the ARC supported Ukraine's independence (during the referendum of 1991 on Ukraine's independence from the Soviet Union, 54 per cent of Crimea's residents had voted for an independent Ukraine, including 57 per cent in Sevastopol). ".

And again, "democracy" at the barrel of a gun isn't democracy. A plain refusal to accept established borders isn't democracy.

"While it said that 82 per cent of voters had cast their ballots, a member of Russia's presidential Civil Society and Human Rights Council reported that turnout was likely to have totalled 30–50 per cent. 161 Election fraud such as multiple voting was also reported.

The Venice Commission of the Council of Europe concluded that the referendum was illegal, as it violated the constitutions of both Ukraine and Crimea. 162 The process also failed to meet European democratic standards or provide for meaningful negotiations between the stakeholders. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) sent in no observers as it also found the referendum illegal. 163 A UN General Assembly resolution underscored the invalidity of the 16 March vote. 164".

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/05/myths-and-misconceptions-debate-russia/myth-12-crimea-was-always-russian

https://webarchive.archive.unhcr.org/20230521204858/https://www.refworld.org/docid/469f38ec2.html

Ivan could it be that you are just dishonest, and like Elvis, go straight to Russian propaganda sources in order to stroke your ego recycling the misinformation on a hooker forum rant thread? And this without regard for any fact checking, or desire to broaden your horizons by accessing contrary sources?

[Paulie97]

That is Trump talk. Hyperbole. I don't think anyone that anyone who understands how complicated this conflict is took what Trump said seriously. I certainly didn't.Trump said 24 hours because he knew there were plenty of voters dumb enough to believe it, and judging by the credentials of his base, he was right. Regardless we clearly have a promise to solve the conflict quickly. We'll see if that happens.

[Xpartan]

That is Trump talk. Hyperbole. I don't think anyone that anyone who understands how complicated this conflict is took what Trump said seriously. I certainly didn't.Finally something from a Russian propacondom that I can agree with.

No one should take whatever Trump says seriously. Ever. Unfortunately, his supporters never learn and always do. What can I say -- a sucker's born every minute.

But you already know everything there's to know about useful idiots, don't you, Igor? At least, unlike those idiots, you do get a few rubles for your troubles.

By the way, I hope you've taken care of your hard-earned rubles before they turn into monopoly money, eh, because you know how it is.

Russians are so nervous about the economy that the central bank took to Telegram to dismiss rumors about deposits being frozen

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/russians-are-so-nervous-about-the-economy-that-the-central-bank-took-to-telegram-to-dismiss-rumors-about-deposits-being-frozen/ar-AA1xdULB

She probably should've kept her mouth shut. You remember what happens when your beloved leaders say your money is safe, right?

https://allperestroika.ru/en/monetary-reform-in-ussr-1991.html

Here's to Russia's best monetary reform ever! Zip Zip Hooray!

[Elvis 2008]

That is Trump talk. Hyperbole. I don't think anyone that anyone who understands how complicated this conflict is took what Trump said seriously. I certainly didn't.Right, this is Trump's art of the deal at work. When you sell expensive things as Trump has, he has learned to start with hyperbole. If something is worth $10 million, Trump is from the school where you say, "I want $100 million for it. " It is a good form of negotiation and in this case, he is negotiating for us.

You would think after all this time people would have picked up on Trump and his hyperbole tactic by now but they have not. They buy the crazy line. "Can you believe Trump wants $10 million for that?" and this happens all the time. I do not think there is an upside for being overly rational when negotiating. It is helpful to have the other side think you are a little nuts.

And Trump and Putin are planning a sit down all ready: https://www.rt.com/russia/611278-trump-team-preparing-talks-putin/.

And while it may be helpful to be a little nuts, obviously you do not want to be full on demented like Biden was. What was so pathetic about the Biden administration is if Putin wanted peace tomorrow, he did not know who to even call. It was such a shit show.

[Tiny 12]

Well, the first thing that needs to be done is all the dumb Dems need to let go of their dicks and stop with the masturbation fantasies about the Russian economy failing, Putin being taken out of office, and Ukraine winning. So step one is Dumb Dems quit jerking off.

Step two is dumb Dems get it through their thick skulls that there is no peace without Putin. The West has made peace and deals with evil tyrants in the past and we will in the future. If you really feel like Putin is so evil, then get off your ass and go fight. You can talk all tough behind the keyboard but I think if you see people with their faces blown off and artillery shells flying over head, you would be crying like a baby screaming, "I want peace. ".

Step three is another thing dumb Dems do not get. You pick up the phone and talk to Putin. Biden has not spoken with Putin in years, but Biden is so demented I bet he thinks he has.

Step four is to ask Putin what it takes to stop the war and negotiate a settlement. Usually a settlement involves neither side getting all that they want but negotiating something they both can live with.

And before you gripe about step four, you have to do steps one through three.

And while Biden and the rest of the dumb Dems have been keeping their hands on their dicks, Putin has been gaining a stronger position day by day. If the dumb Dems were still in control, it would just be a a matter of time before our best negotiating position would be singing Kumbaya.


Yes, Ukraine is winning. Putin is on his last legs and a Gandhi like candidate is emerging to replace him promising strength through peace. Russians are having to use wheelbarrows full of money to pay for a loaf of bread, and the Ukrainian army is literally on the outskirts of Moscow.

Oh, sorry, that is not right. I just wanted to see what it felt to be a Democratic douche jacking off.


Haha.

The Russians are running out of ammo. The Russians are fighting with shovels.Haha! Well, you could have been a bit kinder and gentler, but you've made some excellent points and have me ROTFLMAO.

Clarification: The Democratic douches whose masturbatory fantasies revolve around Russia are politicians and bureaucrats. Esteemed board members on the wrong side of this issue are just sadly misguided.

[Xpartan]

Haha! Well, you could have been a bit kinder and gentler, but you've made some excellent points and have me ROTFLMAO.

Clarification: The Democratic douches whose masturbatory fantasies revolve around Russia are politicians and bureaucrats. Esteemed board members on the wrong side of this issue are just sadly misguided.Has it been you, all alone?

[Tiny 12]

And how is the West supposed to do this? By cutting off the military as"sistance? By making Ukraine capitulate? By ensuring that the next war is 100% inevitable?

How about some specifics instead of your cheap and pointless Kumbaya?So Mister Smarty Pants, how would you end this war, short of taking the world to the edge of nuclear armageddon?

As Elvis said, Biden could have started by picking up the phone and calling Putin. Call me naive but bribe the Ukrainians with immediate membership in the EU and the Russians with a potential pathway to NATO and the end of sanctions and everybody might just be singing Kumbaya. Yeah, they may cost more than sticks, but you can buy a hell of a lot of carrots for what's being spent on this war. I do not share your apparent belief that "the next war" will occur if Ukraine doesn't have NATO troops defending its borders.

"Russia has to be the first country to join NATO. Then the others from Central and Eastern Europe can come in. There should be a kind of cartel of the U.S., Russia, and the Europeans to help ensure and improve world security."

- Boris Yeltsin

If it had happened the way Boris wanted it to, things would have turned out better.

[Paulie97]

Of course we all know the sort of wells Elvis and Blood Red are drinking at when it comes to evaluating the Russian economy.

"The Kremlin has launched an information operation that seeks to create the false impression that the Russian economy is performing well despite numerous continued indicators of macroeconomic distress. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed during a meeting on economic issues on January 22 that 2024 was a "strong year" for the Russian economy. (1) Putin claimed that Russia has a manageable budget deficit of 1. 7 percent and achieved a 26 percent increase in non-oil-and-gas revenue to 25.6 trillion rubles (approximately $257.9 billion) in 2024 and announced a retroactive 9. 5 percent increase in insurance and military pensions to address rising Russian inflation. Bloomberg reported on January 21 that the Russian Finance Ministry released a report projecting economic strength and suggesting that Russian budget revenue in December 2024 reached a record high of over 4 trillion rubles (about $40 billion) — a 28 percent increase compared to December 2023 and the highest level recorded since 2011. (2) The data fails to account for Russia's unsustainable levels of defense spending, rampant inflation, a growing deficit and the erosion of Russia's sovereign wealth fund, however. (3) ISW continues to observe macroeconomic data that directly contradict the Kremlin's claims that the Russian economy is performing well. The Kremlin has recently adopted policies aimed at increasing defense spending all while Russian society faces labor shortages, broader demographic issues, declining savings, and increasing reliance on bailouts as the Russian economy faces rising interest rates, inflated salaries, and deteriorating production capacity. (4) These economic realities suggest that the Kremlin's efforts to posture economic strength are largely an information operation aimed at reassuring domestic audiences and posturing Russian strength abroad while masking the true challenges Russia's economy is facing, particularly heightened due to its war against Ukraine. ".

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-22-2025

[Xpartan]

North Korean soldiers have some serious cojones unlike their Russian counterparts.

Hunt for three North Korean soldiers who 'shot dead' five Russians on the battlefield

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...es/ar-AA1xBXGv


A manhunt is underway for three North Korean soldiers who allegedly murdered five Russian servicemen in a case of friendly fire.

The wanted men were sent to fight with Russia as part of an estimated 11,000-strong contingent dispatched to bolster Vladimir Putins armed forces in the war with Ukraine, according to reports.

The three are accused of shooting their Russian comrades all marines then going on the run with their army weapons.Of course, I've been saying the same thing for the last three years while all our MSMs have kept singing praises to the amazingly "resilient" Putin's economy.

Russia 'on brink of collapse' as military expert warns of nuclear chaos to come

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-on-brink-collapse-military-34527229


Russia is on the brink of "collapse" and the world needs to prepare for potential nuclear chaos inside the country, a military expert has claimed.

Retired general Ben Hodges, who once served as commander of the United States Army in Europe, suggested that Vladimir Putin's country could break up into several small states as its days as a unified republic are numbered. The former senior US military commander, who has been a regular commentator on Russia's war in Ukraine, warned that if this happened, it could cause a new wave of refugees and potential nuclear chaos.Russians WILL lose their savings. And the fact that the failed mafia state says it won't happen means exactly that it will.

Putin Allies Scramble as Russians Fret Losing All Their Money

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-banking-freezing-sanctions-interest-2015294


Russia's Central Bank has dismissed claims that retail deposits could be frozen amid jitters over the state of the country's sanctions-hit economy.

The Central Bank is headed by Elvira Nabiullina, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Another ally, Andrey Kostin, the head of Russia's VTB bank, also vehemently rejected the claims.

Sanctions imposed after Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine have buffeted Russia's economy. Rumors of frozen deposits have echoes of the hyperinflation following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the country's financial crisis in 1998, in which many Russians lost their life savings.Over 800,000 Russians are dead and seriously wounded.

Russias battlefield losses hit record high, says Ukraine as it prepares for impact of Trump presidency

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-soldiers-killed-putin-trump-ukraine-peace-talks-b2683277.html


The Ukrainian military chief has said that 150,000 of Vladimir Putins troops were killed in 2024, as the countries prepare for a new era of their conflict after Donald Trump re-enters the White House.

A record 434,000 casualties, including the wounded, were suffered last year taking total Russian casualties to 819,000, claimed Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraines commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces. This year of combat has cost them more than the previous two years of the war combined, Mr Syrskyi told Ukrainian TV channel TSN.

Russia has gained ground in eastern Ukraine over the past year, but at the cost of heavy casualties as it throws waves of soldiers at Ukraines defensive lines.Videos show Russians storming Ukrainian positions on scooters, motorbikes, old Russian cars and -- on crutches.

Russian commanders send invalids on crutches into meat assaults.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/01/21/what-the-f--a-russian-soldier-mutters-as-his-wounded-comrades-are-ordered-to-limp-into-battle-on-crutches/


Despite losing more than 800,000 troops killed and wounded in the first three years of its wider war on Ukraine, the Russian military has still managed to sustain a front-line force of no fewer than 600,000 troops in Ukraine and western Russia. Thats enough people to give Russian field armies a manpower edge over Ukrainian forces in all of the most important sectors of the wider war.

But that doesnt mean the Kremlin isnt struggling to generate fresh troops. At least one desperate Russian command, the 20th Combined Arms Army, has formed assault groups made up of walking woundedincluding injured men walking with the aid of crutchesand sent them into battle with predictably tragic results.One -- my ass. Sending invalids and heavily wounded soldiers into the combat is a long, venerable Russian tradition. Military police clear hospitals and sends them back into the meatgrinder. As long as you can walk -- you can fight.

[Paulie97]

Haha! Well, you could have been a bit kinder and gentler, but you've made some excellent points and have me ROTFLMAO. I think you are firmly in your chair, wanting to laugh but are unable to, as you know the caricatures so made don't represent the arguments of the supporters of Ukraine here. And at the same time, based on your constant activity here, you aren't able to take the fun vacations that this forum is about, and that I'm about to take, South America then Europe. The fallacy in play is "appeal to ridicule. ".

https://softschools.com/examples/fallacies/appeal_to_ridicule_examples/519/


Clarification: The Democratic douches whose masturbatory fantasies revolve around Russia are politicians and bureaucrats. Esteemed board members on the wrong side of this issue are just sadly misguided.The reverse is true, given the sources you embrace, and constant, varied logical fallacies you are caught in. That's a statement of the obvious, I know. Wink.

[Paulie97]

As Elvis said, Biden could have started by picking up the phone and calling Putin. Call me naive but bribe the Ukrainians with immediate membership in the EU and the Russians with a potential pathway to NATO and the end of sanctions and everybody might just be singing Kumbaya. .It's amazing the power nutcases like you attribute to Biden, or any other democrat that happens to occupy the WH. I suppose he can also create and steer hurricanes. Just ask Elvis. Stick with the Kumbaya. Anything else is above your head.

[Blood Red]

So Mister Smarty Pants, how would you end this war, short of taking the world to the edge of nuclear armageddon?

The warmongers have no real answer, other than a fantasy that Russia will suddenly collapse and that Putin will be overthrown. Until that happens, which it won't, they are happy to throw every last Ukrainian man and woman to the front line to be slaughtered. Now they will be happy to see 18 year olds conscripted.

Until the last Ukrainian. And when that is over, they will have a pathetic narrative they will run away with to save face (when there will be no face left to save). I bet the narrative will be something like this:

Ukraine is still on the map so Russia didn't win.

Putin didn't take Kiev in 3 days (which he never said he would, Mark Milley said that) so Russia didn't win.

Ukraine still exists as a country and Putin failed to wipe it off the map (he has never wanted to do that), even though it will exist as a dysfunctional rump state. So Russia didn't win.

OR:

They will just stop talking about it. Kinda like we have in Afghanistan. NATO spent a trillion dollars to remove the Taliban only to hand the country back to the Taliban 20 plus years later. But who talks about Afghanistan now? The mainstream western media certainly doesn't. Same will happen with Ukraine. They will just move on to the next war (Iran, South China sea).

[Blood Red]

You misunderstand Ivan. We don't advocate democracy at the barrel of a gun. This while established borders are just that. Any in Crimea that wants to be Russian has long been free to pack up and go live there.As I said, you are all for democracy as long as you like the results. You liked the results in Kosovo, so that was okay and legit. You didn't in Crimea so it was illegal. Just like you didn't like the results in the recent election in Georgia. This hypocrisy must stop.

[Questner]

Well, M. Milley got pardoned. The funniest recent elections were in the First WW brothel, Romania. Add here the shit show in two rounds of French elections. American ones, too big to rig. Although, its the governance and not elections per se that matters.

[Xpartan]

So Mister Smarty Pants, how would you end this war, short of taking the world to the edge of nuclear armageddon?

As Elvis said, Biden could have started by picking up the phone and calling Putin. Call me naive but bribe the Ukrainians with immediate membership in the EU and the Russians with a potential pathway to NATO and the end of sanctions and everybody might just be singing Kumbaya. Yeah, they may cost more than sticks, but you can buy a hell of a lot of carrots for what's being spent on this war. I do not share your apparent belief that "the next war" will occur if Ukraine doesn't have NATO troops defending its borders.

"Russia has to be the first country to join NATO. Then the others from Central and Eastern Europe can come in. There should be a kind of cartel of the U.S., Russia, and the Europeans to help ensure and improve world security."

- Boris Yeltsin

If it had happened the way Boris wanted it to, things would have turned out better.Jesus Christ, you and your Russophilia!

Nave doesn't even begin to cover it. The former Warsaw Pact countries haven't run to the Nato because of their love for Nato. It was their path to break free from 50 years of de-facto occupation.

The mere idea of bringing Russia to the same organization as them would've completely negated the purpose.

And let's please, please keep in mind that Yeltsin's Russia wasn't even remotely a pure fascist mafia state it is now. Just read the reports coming out of that country today. People get 10 years for the most innocent dissent. Parents lose custody rights for a Ukrainian flag drawn by their child (and get thrown into prison too). Grandmothers get arrested and violently thrown into the police bus for coming with a placard that says Peace to the World.

Peace to the World is a crime against the state now.

Simply put, your proposal is insane. You just don't get it. At all.

[Tiny 12]

I think you are firmly in your chair, wanting to laugh but are unable to, as you know the caricatures so made don't represent the arguments of the supporters of Ukraine here. And at the same time, based on your constant activity here, you aren't able to take the fun vacations that this forum is about, and that I'm about to take, South America then Europe. The fallacy in play is "appeal to ridicule. ".

https://softschools.com/examples/fallacies/appeal_to_ridicule_examples/519/

The reverse is true, given the sources you embrace, and constant, varied logical fallacies you are caught in. That's a statement of the obvious, I know. Wink.Not counting this one, I've posted 33 times in 2025 and you've posted 26 times. Get on the stick and maybe you can catch up! Your time is much better spent here than working for whatever 3 letter government agency you're employed by. That's if you're even a person, and not an anti-Russia PropagandaBot.

[Paulie97]

As I said, you are all for democracy as long as you like the results. I couldn't care less what you say. I'm typing only for the limited audience that may be hanging around. "Results" at the barrel of a gun aren't democracy, while it's quite telling that you continue to claim that it is.


You liked the results in Kosovo, so that was okay and legit. You didn't in Crimea so it was illegal. Just like you didn't like the results in the recent election in Georgia. This hypocrisy must stop.First it's ironic indeed, a Russophile like you, who insists that Alexi Navalny died of natural causes, is here talking about hypocrisy. Your whole regime is one continuous, walking, talking, murderous hypocrisy. So naturally you shift to whataboutism mode. That's also telling. If you think you have parallels here, prove them, and for once in your life, cite your sources. People don't hold your breath on this one.

I think this is some of what you are talking about. It's tough to have sympathy for guys like Vucic. The same goes for Russia and China.

https://apnews.com/article/serbia-kosovo-election-boycott-vucic-ec944380dec66fc68c3e42cde3f0e9a7

[Paulie97]

The warmongers have no real answer...Though this is a most serious matter, I got a huge laugh out of this one. This clown, whose is here daily propping up Russia, who started a war with it's neighbor, has murdered civilians and hid their bodies, deported and indoctrinated Ukrainian children, and for three years has refused to pack up and go home is calling others warmongers.


Other than a fantasy that Russia will suddenly collapse and that Putin will be overthrown. Until that happens, which it won't...Rather than make predictions, and add to the long list of those you've made that have failed, why not answer the content from the articles I posted, which highlight the serious economic and recruitment problems Russia is currently facing? The posts are recent and some are addressed directly to you. Or you can just glad hand back and forth with Elvis and Tiny, making the same unsubstantiated assertions over and over. Your choice, though the audience will notice your evasiveness.


they are happy to throw every last Ukrainian man and woman to the front line to be slaughtered..How happy are you with the 700,000+ recent Russian casualties, the most since WW2? You are laughing but your mothers are weeping. That while we are speaking of women. You hide behind your keyboard and cowardly mock Ukrainian dedication to democracy and their identity, while Russians are in the mode of timidly serving a dictator and are terrified of speaking their minds. It's quite the contrast.

[Tiny 12]

The warmongers have no real answer, other than a fantasy that Russia will suddenly collapse and that Putin will be overthrown. Until that happens, which it won't, they are happy to throw every last Ukrainian man and woman to the front line to be slaughtered. Now they will be happy to see 18 year olds conscripted....Yes, here's a classic example, from the Institute for the Study of War describing how Russia's about to collapse. This is at least the second article Paulie's quoted from that esteemed institution, which is funded by General Dynamics, Raytheon, CACI, DynCorp, and other military contractors who benefit from defense spending. It's a neoconservative mouthpiece to promote war. Robert Wright describes the think tank as "ultra-hawkish" and its objectivity as "dubious."


Of course we all know the sort of wells Elvis and Blood Red are drinking at when it comes to evaluating the Russian economy.

"The Kremlin has launched an information operation that seeks to create the false impression that the Russian economy is performing well despite numerous continued indicators of macroeconomic distress. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed during a meeting on economic issues on January 22 that 2024 was a "strong year" for the Russian economy. (1) Putin claimed that Russia has a manageable budget deficit of 1. 7 percent and achieved a 26 percent increase in non-oil-and-gas revenue to 25.6 trillion rubles (approximately $257.9 billion) in 2024 and announced a retroactive 9. 5 percent increase in insurance and military pensions to address rising Russian inflation. Bloomberg reported on January 21 that the Russian Finance Ministry released a report projecting economic strength and suggesting that Russian budget revenue in December 2024 reached a record high of over 4 trillion rubles (about $40 billion) a 28 percent increase compared to December 2023 and the highest level recorded since 2011. (2) The data fails to account for Russia's unsustainable levels of defense spending, rampant inflation, a growing deficit and the erosion of Russia's sovereign wealth fund, however. (3) ISW continues to observe macroeconomic data that directly contradict the Kremlin's claims that the Russian economy is performing well. The Kremlin has recently adopted policies aimed at increasing defense spending all while Russian society faces labor shortages, broader demographic issues, declining savings, and increasing reliance on bailouts as the Russian economy faces rising interest rates, inflated salaries, and deteriorating production capacity. (4) These economic realities suggest that the Kremlin's efforts to posture economic strength are largely an information operation aimed at reassuring domestic audiences and posturing Russian strength abroad while masking the true challenges Russia's economy is facing, particularly heightened due to its war against Ukraine. ".

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-22-2025Russian YoY CPI inflation is 9.5%, and with short term rates at 21%, it will likely head down, along with interest rates.

Here's Russian YoY GDP growth the last few years, which was higher than the USA for all periods posted except 2022.

2021 +6.1%
2022 -1.8%
2023 +4.9%
3 Q 2024 +3.1%

The Russian budget deficit was 1.7% of GDP in 2024. Compare to 6.4% for the USA.

Russian government debt is 12% of GDP. Compare to 120% for the USA.

Russia has a current account surplus of 2.8% of GDP. Compare to a 4.2% deficit for the USA.

Russia's defense expenditures are expected to be about 6.3% of GDP in 2025. In 1960 to 1970, USA Defense expenditures ranged from 7.6% to 9.4% of GDP, and didn't consistently drop below 6% until 1990.

Sanctions have not damaged the Russian economy to a significant extent, and won't work to bend the country to the West's will, anymore than they worked in Cuba, Venezuela or Iran.

As you say Blood Red, Russia is not going to collapse and Putin will not be overthrown. Russia can continue the war as long as it sees fit or until it wins. Increasingly politicians in the west are realizing that.

Make that 35 posts Paulie! I'm pulling ahead!

[Questner]

No doubt the new administration within the belt will be judged by the consequences of it's actions and not the social media posts. Can you please advise Donald Fredovich that 5% of the GDP does not equal 5% of the budget. Even the US does not spend that much on military. And the structure of the budget is different is each sucker nation that blindly joined the marketing club of NATO. The only hope left, now you've got only two genders, men and women, in the eyes of the Feds. Can't say 'first' here.

[Elvis 2008]

Of course we all know the sort of wells Elvis and Blood Red are drinking at when it comes to evaluating the Russian economy.LOL. I have not made my own projections. I have just been making fun of how dumb yours have been. But yeah, maybe I should make my own. Here goes:

What does it take to bankrupt Russia? The most common method used to assess a nation's chance of defaulting is debt to GDP ratio. Russia's ratio is 15%. In layman's term, that is like saying someone is making $100,000 per year and has $15,000 in debt. So Russian income may not go up as much as projected? Big fucking deal. Russian GDP could go down 10% and Russia would still have no problem paying down their debt.

Of course, GDP is not the real picture because it is what the government can collect in taxes that matters. Thing is in Russia as of January 2025, the personal income tax rate in Russia stands at 13% for the majority of residents, with some higher earners paying a rate of 15%. So Putin has plenty of leeway with raising the tax rates if he needed to get higher government income.

If you look at income tax rates and debt in the West, there is much, much less wiggle room.

In relative terms, if Russia has $15,000 in debt, and its income is $100,000, Russian income would have to go down to $10,000 before it had the same debt to GDP ratio of the USA. And given how much of Russian GDP is oil based, the only realistic way for that to happen is an enormous collapse in the demand for oil from a worldwide depression.

So here we go again, another dumb Dem jerking off to some porn fantasy a prowar think tank is serving up.

To all you prowar dumb Dems, I strongly suggest you get your dicks out of your hand, your heads out of your ass, and start drinking from the well of reality. There is no realistic scenario in which Russia goes bankrupt and the West thrives.

[Elvis 2008]

Has it been you, all alone?Not sure why that would matter Xpartan. I guess you think three guys with IQs of 40 trump someone with an IQ of 150.

But no, Tiny's claim that Democratic douches are limited to bureaucrats is wrong. I originated the term, and it first came up when there were so many Democratic douches lapping up all the government bullshit on Covid. To recap that would be, Covid did not come from a lab. Ivermectin is a dangerous horse medicine. The vaccines are safe and effective. Masks work. The Covid testing Biden instituted when a person returned to the USA was an effective deterrent. Social distancing was based on science. Travel bans were effective, and lastly Fauci is God.

At some point, maybe you can answer this for me. Why did you dumb Dems feel the need to pardon God AKA Fauci?

So I disagree with Tiny. You are a charter member of the dumb Democratic douche fan club, and I hope you wear that badge with pride.

[Paulie97]

Yes, here's a classic example, from the Institute for the Study of War describing how Russia's about to collapse. This is at least the second article Paulie's quoted from that esteemed institution, which is funded by General Dynamics, Raytheon, CACI, DynCorp, and other military contractors who benefit from defense spending. It's a neoconservative mouthpiece to promote war. Robert Wright describes the think tank as "ultra-hawkish" and its objectivity as "dubious." Tell us about "Robert Wright. " That's a more than common name while there's more than a few around. If you are going to quote him, link us to the source, while telling us who he is.

"Deep State" conspiracy theories aside, you failed to cite any sources at all, why? Embarrassed? We already know Blood Red is.


Russian YoY CPI inflation is 9.5%, and with short term rates at 21%, it will likely head down, along with interest rates. And according to you all will be well soon. Got it, while you cite no sources, and in fact provide no evidence at all.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/01/16/out-of-control-russias-cpi-inflation-up-again-to-95-in-december-a87639

I skipped the history and USA whataboutism as you never established any relevance.


Russia's defense expenditures are expected to be about 6.3% of GDP in 2025. "Defence spending will rise to 13.5 trillion roubles ($145 billion) in 2025, the fourth year of what Russia calls 'a special military operation' in Ukraine, up 25% from the 2024 level.

Defence spending will account for 32% of total 2025 budget expenditure of 41.5 trillion roubles. The draft budget was officially submitted on Monday to the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, for review. ".

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-hikes-national-defence-spending-by-23-2025-2024-09-30/

Those expenditures as percentage of the annual budget are extremely high.

700,000+ casusalties and counting, while this by far is the highest level since WW2. There's significant recruitment challenges.

https://cepa.org/article/russias-year-of-truth-1-the-soldier-shortage/


As you say Blood Red, Russia is not going to collapse and Putin will not be overthrown. Russia can continue the war as long as it sees fit or until it wins. Increasingly politicians in the west are realizing that. Got it, another rim job for BR of course while repeating his prognostications. Russia is experiencing a bit of a bump in the road at the moment, but all will be well soon. They are going to win no matter what. There's no real difficulties or leverage against them. Ukraine and the West might as well just bend over and grab their ankles now, and get it over with. And this while Western leaders are beginning to concur with this dim assessment. And of course, there's no evidence provided to support any of this, no source citations, while all contrary evidence is dismissed as worthless Western propaganda inspired by "deep state" conspiracy theories. It's the fault of weapons manufacturers who want to fight a dictator, who, sore over the loss of the Soviet empire, decided to try and annex his democracy loving neighbor. And that isn't even an appeal to ridicule fallacy, as it's you in a nutshell. We get it. LOL.

It's worth adding that Russian's inability to wage war isn't a pre-requisite for the fall of Putin. I personally do not know the ultimate outcome, but believe it's in the best interests of the West to stay the course and turn up the heat, in both sanctions and military support, especially if Little Vlad persists in unreasonable demands. The costs of appeasement are greater, monetarily and otherwise than staying the course. I recently posted some well sourced articles that support that.

My first vacation of the year starts Sunday. You all hold down the fort until I return. I don't do politics on vacation, and not even with people I meet along the way.

[Paulie97]

Lying about Russia, lying about the war, and preventing the West and the Ukraine from falling prostrate and surrendering. Wink Wink Nonetheless this is a good article, hot off the press that deserves it's own place in the sun. There's some interesting imbedded links. Just look for the underlines in the original source, which for whatever reason didn't carry over in the copy and paste. But hey, regardless, maybe this will encourage BR, Tiny, and Elvis to link us over to Russian state media more often. Source citations show respect and consideration to the readers.

"The death and disablement of hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers, acute strains in the defense budget and a looming shortage of military hardware make 2025 the year of truth for Moscow's armed forces.

With the full-scale war against Ukraine nearly three years-old, Russia's armed forces have lost as many as 700,000 troops killed, injured or missing in action by October last year. Estimates by Russian and BBC researchers suggest at least 400,000 are dead or too seriously wounded to return to duty.

Recruitment has barely covered these losses, forcing Russia to use draftees to counter Ukraine's Kursk offensive in August 2024, import troops from North Korea, and extend the use of convicts and people under criminal investigation.

By resorting to such desperate measures, Moscow was able to maintain combat pressure and slowly extend its occupation of Ukrainian territory, though its slow progress would not be considered a success when judged against Russian military theory.

In 2025, recruitment will continue to be a significant challenge for the Kremlin, further degrading its ability to field a modern army.

In December 2023, President Vladimir Putin claimed 490,000 contracted soldiers had been recruited to the armed forces during the previous 12 months. A year later, he admitted the actual number for 2023 was much lower, saying in a speech that "more than 300,000"had signed up.

This number correlates with the annual budgetary report, which detailed approximately 330,000 one-time payments (of 195,000 rubles, or $1,900, each) to contracted soldiers. This also confirms an assessment of troop sign-up published by CEPA in March 2024.

Putin announced the official number for 2024 in the same speech, claiming 430,000 contracted soldiers had been recruited during the year. He appears to have been exaggerating again.

Currently there is only a budgetary report for three quarters of 2024 and it suggests fewer than 230,000 were signed up between January and September. It is very unlikely that a further 200,000 signed up between October and December to tally with the president's boast.

A more probable assessment, which will need to be verified later in the year, is that 60,000–70,000 joined in the last quarter, taking total recruitment in 2024 to about 300,000 and so matching the previous year's number. This figure would include prisoners and people under investigation, who are eligible to join the military in exchange for criminal charges being dropped.

Alongside a shortage of recruits, the Kremlin also faces the manpower challenge caused by combat losses.

There were 48,000 Russian soldiers missing in action in December 2024, according to a recording of comments by Russia's deputy defense minister Anna Tsivileva, and more than 50,000 inquiries from Russian citizens to the Ukrainian authorities about missing Russian soldiers by January 2025.

These stark numbers explain why Russian authorities repeatedly increased payments to those who signed up to fight during 2024. They also shed light on the decision to deploy poorly trained drafted soldiers in the Kursk region, and to bring in troops from North Korea, allowing the Kremlin to avoid a new round of mobilization by coercion.

While the option of partial mobilization still exists, this would probably only happen if something extraordinary occurred at the front. Moreover, such a hypothetical scenario would have to resonate as much with the Russian people as for the Russian authorities. And the fact is that even Ukraine's incursion into the western Russian region of Kursk did not trigger this response.

The continued recruitment of prisoners and people under investigation relies on a "carrot and stick" approach where the "carrot" is money and the promise of freedom if they sign up, and the "stick" is the threat of brutal violence in Russia's prisons and pre-trial detention facilities if they don't.

Considering there are more than 700,000 criminal cases in Russia every year, and more than 500,000 convicts, a significant number of new soldiers could hypothetically be recruited from this group in 2025.

But the Kremlin's problem is not just with the supply of sufficient cannon fodder. The officer corps is also deteriorating due to losses, damaging the structure, discipline and fighting effectiveness of the Kremlin's damaged legions. As of January 2025, there were more than 5,400 Russian officers confirmed killed and more than half of those were junior lieutenants, lieutenants and senior lieutenants.

The death toll implies multiple thousands of other officers have been wounded, resulting in a significant lack of lower-level commanders, a shortfall that cannot be quickly rectified. The consequence has been an inevitable deterioration in organizational effectiveness.

The challenge for Russia's military is not an absence of will to fight, but a decreasing ability for their units to act like modern regular armed forces due to the shortage of capable junior officers.

The Kremlin's cannon fodder can push the Ukrainian army back and gain more territory, but will still fall short when judged against the benchmarks of Russian military theory, which says gaining territory cannot be the central aim of combat.

The main task is always the defeat of an adversary's forces and to eliminate their ability and will to keep fighting. In 2023 and 2024, the Russian army failed to accomplish this task.

If Ukraine continues fighting, and the West continues its support, the Russian army will not be able to accomplish its main combat task in 2025 either. At the same time, the growing human and materiel losses will make the ongoing deterioration of the Russian army irreversible.

Dr. Pavel Luzin is a non-resident senior fellow with the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, and a visiting scholar at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy (Tufts University.) In 2017–2018, he was a consultant on the issues of the armed forces, law enforcement agencies, and the defense industry for Alexey Navalny's presidential campaign in Russia. ".

https://cepa.org/article/russias-year-of-truth-1-the-soldier-shortage/

[Blood Red]

Well, M. Milley got pardoned. The funniest recent elections were in the First WW brothel, Romania. Add here the shit show in two rounds of French elections. American ones, too big to rig. Although, its the governance and not elections per se that matters.To his credit, General Mark Milley was correct when he suggested in the fall of 2022 that it was the best time for Ukraine to negotiate with the Russians. That was when Ukraine had taken back vast chunks of territory in Kharkov and Kherson regions, due to the tactical withdrawals by the Russian army. Ukraine would have gotten a much better deal back then.

The longer this goes, the more territory the Russians will take, and the terms of settlement will become more difficult. And of course, more people will die on both sides, and Ukraine will get more wrecked.

[Xpartan]

Yes, here's a classic example, from the Institute for the Study of War describing how Russia's about to collapse. This is at least the second article Paulie's quoted from that esteemed institution, which is funded by General Dynamics, Raytheon, CACI, DynCorp, and other military contractors who benefit from defense spending. It's a neoconservative mouthpiece to promote war. Robert Wright describes the think tank as "ultra-hawkish" and its objectivity as "dubious."

Russian YoY CPI inflation is 9.5%, and with short term rates at 21%, it will likely head down, along with interest rates.

Here's Russian YoY GDP growth the last few years, which was higher than the USA for all periods posted except 2022. Russia seems to be doing so great according to your data. It appears the war it started and the sanctions from those Democratic douches are greatly contributing to its economy.

Maybe you shouldn't so vehemently insist on peace talks, considering this amazing economic miracle. Let's give Russia a chance to do even better, eh?

Why not wait until Russia completely overtakes the US and China as two leading world economies?

Which is about to occur any time now per your diligent research.

[Sirioja]

To his credit, General Mark Milley was correct when he suggested in the fall of 2022 that it was the best time for Ukraine to negotiate with the Russians. That was when Ukraine had taken back vast chunks of territory in Kharkov and Kherson regions, due to the tactical withdrawals by the Russian army. Ukraine would have gotten a much better deal back then.

The longer this goes, the more territory the Russians will take, and the terms of settlement will become more difficult. And of course, more people will die on both sides, and Ukraine will get more wrecked.Ukrainians are exhausted, but the world now know Russian army is weak, they can t anymore build military ships without Ukrainian factories and they have less and less money for keeping on this war only due to Putin craziness, when Russians and Ukrainians are so much brothers with so many mixed families, Russians being bullshiting fucked by shameful Putin. Russians could live much better without Putin who fuck their freedom.

[Tiny 12]

Tell us about "Robert Wright. " That's a more than common name while there's more than a few around. If you are going to quote him, link us to the source, while telling us who he is.

"Deep State" conspiracy theories aside, you failed to cite any sources at all, why? Embarrassed? We already know Blood Red is.

And according to you all will be well soon. Got it, while you cite no sources, and in fact provide no evidence at all.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/01/16/out-of-control-russias-cpi-inflation-up-again-to-95-in-december-a87639

I skipped the history and USA whataboutism as you never established any relevance.

"Defence spending will rise to 13.5 trillion roubles ($145 billion) in 2025, the fourth year of what Russia calls 'a special military operation' in Ukraine, up 25% from the 2024 level.

Defence spending will account for 32% of total 2025 budget expenditure of 41.5 trillion roubles. The draft budget was officially submitted on Monday to the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, for review. ".

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-hikes-national-defence-spending-by-23-2025-2024-09-30/

Those expenditures as percentage of the annual budget are extremely high.

700,000+ casusalties and counting, while this by far is the highest level since WW2. There's significant recruitment challenges.

https://cepa.org/article/russias-year-of-truth-1-the-soldier-shortage/

Got it, another rim job for BR of course while repeating his prognostications. Russia is experiencing a bit of a bump in the road at the moment, but all will be well soon. They are going to win no matter what. There's no real difficulties or leverage against them. Ukraine and the West might as well just bend over and grab their ankles now, and get it over with. And this while Western leaders are beginning to concur with this dim assessment. And of course, there's no evidence provided to support any of this, no source citations, while all contrary evidence is dismissed as worthless Western propaganda inspired by "deep state" conspiracy theories. It's the fault of weapons manufacturers who want to fight a dictator, who, sore over the loss of the Soviet empire, decided to try and annex his democracy loving neighbor. And that isn't even an appeal to ridicule fallacy, as it's you in a nutshell. We get it. LOL.

It's worth adding that Russian's inability to wage war isn't a pre-requisite for the fall of Putin. I personally do not know the ultimate outcome, but believe it's in the best interests of the West to stay the course and turn up the heat, in both sanctions and military support, especially if Little Vlad persists in unreasonable demands. The costs of appeasement are greater, monetarily and otherwise than staying the course. I recently posted some well sourced articles that support that.

My first vacation of the year starts Sunday. You all hold down the fort until I return. I don't do politics on vacation, and not even with people I meet along the way.Make up your mind, is it Kremlin propaganda or Tiny in a nutshell? I know Robert Wright because he wrote The Moral Animal. You should know him because he writes for The Intercept. He's the first Robert Wright who comes up if you Google his name. And the attribution is from the Wikipedia page for your institute for the promotion of war. You'll find the names of the institute's defense-contractor sugar daddies there too. As to the rest of my post, if you have access to a commercial financial database like Bloomberg's and Google, and basic mathematical skills, you can reproduce the numbers in 10 minutes. Without Bloomberg it might take you 20 minutes.

I provided USA economic data solely because I believe youre a fan of Bidenomics and believe the economy did well during his term. The comparison shows Russian macroeconomic numbers are better than the USs, but I could have picked any other country. If you need a primer on the effect of interest rates on inflation please Google it or try ChatGPT.

Russias government debt is so small compared to its GDP that the government can easily handle higher rates. Yes, people with floating rate mortgages and indebted businesses may have a problem and higher rates will slow down GDP growth. But the USA suffered through higher inflation in the 1980s while at the same time increasing its defense budget. Is that more whataboutism?

Hope you have a good trip, seriously. And I'm all for anything that takes you away from your day job with the three letter government agency.

[Tiny 12]

Could somebody please explain "whataboutism" to me? Does it mean one set of rules applies to Russia and a different set to the USA and the rest of the West? Or does it mean, "It's different this time, because I say so. ".

[Tiny 12]

Russia seems to be doing so great according to your data. It appears the war it started and the sanctions from those Democratic douches are greatly contributing to its economy.

Maybe you shouldn't so vehemently insist on peace talks, considering this amazing economic miracle. Let's give Russia a chance to do even better, eh?

Why not wait until Russia completely overtakes the US and China as two leading world economies?

Which is about to occur any time now per your diligent research.Russia's army is definitely becoming battle hardened as a result of this conflict.

[Tiny 12]

LOL. I have not made my own projections. I have just been making fun of how dumb yours have been. But yeah, maybe I should make my own. Here goes:

What does it take to bankrupt Russia? The most common method used to assess a nation's chance of defaulting is debt to GDP ratio. Russia's ratio is 15%. In layman's term, that is like saying someone is making $100,000 per year and has $15,000 in debt. So Russian income may not go up as much as projected? Big fucking deal. Russian GDP could go down 10% and Russia would still have no problem paying down their debt.

Of course, GDP is not the real picture because it is what the government can collect in taxes that matters. Thing is in Russia as of January 2025, the personal income tax rate in Russia stands at 13% for the majority of residents, with some higher earners paying a rate of 15%. So Putin has plenty of leeway with raising the tax rates if he needed to get higher government income.

If you look at income tax rates and debt in the West, there is much, much less wiggle room.

In relative terms, if Russia has $15,000 in debt, and its income is $100,000, Russian income would have to go down to $10,000 before it had the same debt to GDP ratio of the USA. And given how much of Russian GDP is oil based, the only realistic way for that to happen is an enormous collapse in the demand for oil from a worldwide depression.

So here we go again, another dumb Dem jerking off to some porn fantasy a prowar think tank is serving up.

To all you prowar dumb Dems, I strongly suggest you get your dicks out of your hand, your heads out of your ass, and start drinking from the well of reality. There is no realistic scenario in which Russia goes bankrupt and the West thrives.Right Elvis. Paulie's article from the war-promotion institute was hugely and intentionally deceiving. To use his word, it was propaganda.

If the Russian government were to take debt as a % of GDP up from the current level around 12% or 15% to 50%, which would still be low compared to many other countries, it could raise a lot of money for defense. As it could by increasing the income tax rate. And while Russia's defense expenditures as a % of total government expenditures are high, they're still very manageable in relation to the size of the economy.

Indeed, as you say, anyone who believes Russia's going bankrupt isn't "drinking from the well of reality. ".

[Paulie97]

Russia seems to be doing so great according to your data. It appears the war it started and the sanctions from those Democratic douches are greatly contributing to its economy.

Maybe you shouldn't so vehemently insist on peace talks, considering this amazing economic miracle. Let's give Russia a chance to do even better, eh?

Why not wait until Russia completely overtakes the US and China as two leading world economies?

Which is about to occur any time now per your diligent research.That sums it well, and concisely.

[Elvis 2008]

Could somebody please explain "whataboutism" to me? Does it mean one set of rules applies to Russia and a different set to the USA and the rest of the West? Or does it mean, "It's different this time, because I say so. ".So look at this comedic video of Biden: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dADyPBHeOg.

How do you defend this? It literally is as honest about Biden's condition as there was.

The Democratic douche response to this was a 5 or 10 second clip of Trump stuttering with the question: What about Trump?

The point of whatboutism is that you do not defend your POV. You attack your opponent's POV as equal or worse.

But anyone who saw the debate between Trump and Biden knew this strategy fell on its face.

I actually thought Biden was more alert during the debate than at other times. No doubt he was filled with drugs then though.

In fact, if Biden were asked why he did not call and speak to Putin, I am not joking when I think Biden would say, "I did. I called him hundreds of times. ".

I personally think Dems use whataboutism tactics 10 X more often than Republicans do while claiming to be victims of whataboutism about 10 X more as well.

[Blood Red]

Ukrainians are exhausted, but the world now know Russian army is weak, they can t anymore build military ships without Ukrainian factories and they have less and less money for keeping on this war only due to Putin craziness, when Russians and Ukrainians are so much brothers with so many mixed families, Russians being bullshiting fucked by shameful Putin. Russians could live much better without Putin who fuck their freedom.The one thing I will agree with you is that Russians and Ukrainians are indeed Brothers and it's such a tragedy that this NATO expansion bullshit pushed them to fight each other. I hope there will be a reconciliation after the war is over when the people of Ukraine will realize that the collective west took them down the primrose path and really doesn't give 2 shits about them. That in my opinion is inevitable.

[Blood Red]

Could somebody please explain "whataboutism" to me? Does it mean one set of rules applies to Russia and a different set to the USA and the rest of the West? Or does it mean, "It's different this time, because I say so. ".Yes, pretty much. It is the new Rules Based International Order of the United States and the collective west.

Ex: they can change Serbia's borders by force in the heart of Europe but Russia can't with Crimea and now with Ukraine. It is hypocrisy in its extreme. It is okay for Israelis to slaughter the Palestinians and turn Gaza to Rubble and commit a Genocide, yet it's an atrocity and an enormous crime what is happening in Ukraine where far less civilians have died. These people are disgusting but the good thing is that they are being exposed now.

[Xpartan]

Here is a perfect example of another prosperous debtless country.

I wonder why it didn't stop Ceausescu from getting deposed and shot in the back of his head.

[Sirioja]

The one thing I will agree with you is that Russians and Ukrainians are indeed Brothers and it's such a tragedy that this NATO expansion bullshit pushed them to fight each other. I hope there will be a reconciliation after the war is over when the people of Ukraine will realize that the collective west took them down the primrose path and really doesn't give 2 shits about them. That in my opinion is inevitable.I also wish for this new year this war and also in Gaza will stop, but war in Ukraine is only because of Putin craziness, when nobody wanted to attack Russia, but Putin just dream about ex USSR again. Trump failed to stop war in Ukraine, as he did bullshit like always.

[Tiny 12]

Here is a perfect example of another prosperous debtless country.

I wonder why it didn't stop Ceausescu from getting deposed and shot in the back of his head.Putin has a whole lot higher approval rating than Ceausescu did. An article in the Financial Times the other day about the president of El Salvador showed Putin as having the second highest approval rating of world leaders. That may be overstating it, but the FT doesn't usually throw out garbage, even when it comes from outside sources.

I'll be traveling so no posts for a while. I hope Russia and Ukraine will be on a path to piece when I'm back.

[Sirioja]

Here is a perfect example of another prosperous debtless country.

I wonder why it didn't stop Ceausescu from getting deposed and shot in the back of his head.Ceaucescu and his wife were dictator, like Putin. Their citizens were / are fucked by them. Maybe Putin will finish in same way, if Russians wake up, when they are so blind.

[Elvis 2008]

Lying about Russia, lying about the war, and preventing the West and the Ukraine from falling prostrate and surrendering. Wink Wink Nonetheless this is a good article, hot off the press that deserves it's own place in the sun. There's some interesting imbedded links. Just look for the underlines in the original source, which for whatever reason didn't carry over in the copy and paste. But hey, regardless, maybe this will encourage BR, Tiny, and Elvis to link us over to Russian state media more often. Source citations show respect and consideration to the readers.I used two stats to refute your bullshit notion Russia is going broke: tax rate and debt to GDP ratio. If you had a shred of self respect, you would refute those numbers. Instead you lie and insult when you are wrong as you always do.

What gets me about you dumb Democratic douches is how you advocate against your own self interests. Obviously, two great mongering locals were taken off line.

Then there is the water and natural gas pipelines that could have been built if the money had been used there versus in Ukraine. That water pipeline would have come in handy with the California fires.

Then there is oil and gas prices and blowing up Nordstream. The Germans do not have cheap natural gas so their economy goes takes a hit. It is economics 101. You take Russian oil and gas off line and energy prices have to go up. So all but the biggest world's energy producers take a big hit for that.

But the worst were fertilizer costs. Half the world's fertilizer comes from Russia and Belarus. Fertilizer and food prices skyrocketed. If there were shit harvests in 2022 through 2024, people would have literally starved to death. Enough fertilizer has come on line now that prices look to be stabilizing, but it was a huge risk.

And with all this inflation, the liberals are not only voted out in the USA and Canada but international polling for liberalism is at its lowest point in decades. Europe is already revolting against leftist polices and parties.

And this is not even including all the dead bodies piling up. You know you are in a cult when all this shit is going on all around you and you ignore it and say. Yeah, Elvis, but Putin is going down any day now. And? Why is your life going to get better because of that? What if the new guy is even worse?

And that is why it is so easy to make fun of Democratic dumbshit douches. In many cases, the people they hurt the most is themselves.

[Paulie97]

Right Elvis. Paulie's article from the war-promotion institute was hugely and intentionally deceiving. To use his word, it was propaganda.

If the Russian government were to take debt as a % of GDP up from the current level around 12% or 15% to 50%, which would still be low compared to many other countries, it could raise a lot of money for defense. As it could by increasing the income tax rate. And while Russia's defense expenditures as a % of total government expenditures are high, they're still very manageable in relation to the size of the economy.

Indeed, as you say, anyone who believes Russia's going bankrupt isn't "drinking from the well of reality. ".I don't believe anyone is arguing that Russia will go bankrupt, but their economic challenges are significant. Call it a personal preference, but I'd rather listen to ISW or this guy than you or Elvis. Both of you are big on pontificating, the latter big on bluster, and neither of you has a propensity toward source citations. While it's more than laughable when you guys complain about bias. LOL.

Russia's Economic Gamble: The Hidden Costs of War-Driven Growth.

The storm of government spending is sustaining the current state of affairs, but it cannot address the chronic problems that have long plagued the Russian economy. We are witnessing an irreversible turn toward economic stagnation.

By Alexandra Prokopenko.

Published on December 20,2024.

"Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy has repeatedly defied expectations. Predictions of a double-digit contraction never materialized. On the contrary, GDP grew by 3. 6 percent in 2023 and an expected 4 percent in 2024: rates that both developed and developing nations might envy. Key indicators like GDP growth, household income, and low unemployment have become President Vladimir Putin's trump cards. He brandishes them to the West as proof that sanctions are ineffective, and presents them to partners in Asia and Africa as evidence of Russia's sound economic policies and the resilience of its development model. Chinese officials are apparently convinced, having reportedly established an interagency commission to study Russia's economic model.

Yet this image of resilience is deceptive. Over the past two years, Russia's economy has operated like a marathoner on fiscal steroids—and now those steroids are wearing off. Growth is slowing, key sectors are cooling, and the arguments underpinning Putin's claims of economic "invulnerability" are unraveling. The Kremlin faces the mounting challenge of sustaining the war effort and funding social and infrastructure programs. Simultaneously maintaining low inflation and a stable ruble is proving increasingly unsustainable. Without significant course corrections, the current momentum may falter within a year. By 2026–2027, the fiscal and social challenges now on the horizon could fully metastasize into a crisis.

Since the invasion, Russia's economy has relied on a unique combination of factors: record hydrocarbon export revenues, a market-oriented economic structure, a robust banking system, strict centralized governance, and a lack of public consensus requirements. Such conditions are exceptional, even among authoritarian regimes, making the Kremlin's economic model an anomaly rather than a replicable template for success. The foundations of this strategy are showing signs of erosion. The question is not if the cracks will spread, but how—and when—they will fundamentally reshape the Kremlin's capacity to project power and maintain internal stability.

Steam Without Substance.

The rapid expansion of government spending—both direct budgetary outlays and state-subsidized loan programs—has been the primary driver of Russia's recent economic growth. From 2022 to 2024, the fiscal stimulus amounted to over 10 percent of GDP, while preferential loan portfolios in the banking sector surpassed 15 trillion rubles ($150 billion). This extraordinary expenditure has turned the military-industrial complex into the main engine of economic expansion. Yet cracks are becoming visible. By the third quarter of 2024, GDP growth had slowed to 3. 1 percent, down from 4. 1 percent in the previous quarter. While industries linked to defense production continue to grow, their pace is far below last year's levels. Other sectors are faltering: extractive industries face declining production due to lower hydrocarbon export prices and OPEC+ production cuts, while agriculture has also lost momentum. Retail trade remains a rare bright spot, buoyed by consumer spending. However, surveys point to slowing business activity and rising inflation expectations among both businesses and households.

The limits of Russia's production capacity are stark. Industrial facilities are operating at 81 percent of capacity, and 73 percent of enterprises report labor shortages. Unemployment has hit a record low of 2. 3 percent, leaving an estimated 1. 6 million jobs unfilled. In practical terms, the domestic economy cannot meet the demand driven by aggressive state and household spending, necessitating greater reliance on imports. This, in turn, increases demand for foreign currency, putting downward pressure on the ruble and fueling inflation.

Businesses are under growing strain. Falling global prices for coal and metals, combined with sanctions, have plunged the coal sector into real losses for the first time since 2020. This sector employs 650,000 people across thirty-one single-industry towns, where the shutdown of a single enterprise can paralyze an entire community, making its members prime candidates for government support. But other struggling industries—automotive manufacturing, non-food retail, and housing construction—are also lining up for state assistance. Resources are stretched thin as stagnant oil and gas revenues, coupled with energy sanctions, limit budgetary inflows. While tax revenues have temporarily offset falling hydrocarbon income, they are consumed by current expenditures, leaving no surplus. By November 2024, the liquid portion of the National Wealth Fund stood at just $31 billion, its lowest level since the fund's inception in 2008. That reserve is insufficient to meet growing demand.

At the same time, tight labor markets are driving wages higher, squeezing business profitability. Wage growth is most pronounced in industrial regions. The Kurgan region, home to Russia's sole producer of armored personnel carriers, has seen salaries jump by 33 percent. The Volga and Ural regions, hubs for defense manufacturing, are close behind. However, this uneven wage growth is exacerbating regional inequality, a long-standing challenge that has only deepened since the war began.

Labor shortages remain a persistent bottleneck. For unskilled roles, Central Asian migrants could help fill the gap, but rising xenophobia—now entrenched in legislation—is curtailing immigration. In any case, Central Asian nations cannot provide all the trained professionals Russia requires. Moscow's failure to invest in workforce development across the post-Soviet space has compounded the problem, leaving Russian industries ill-equipped to meet current demand.

The greatest losers in this overheated economy are Putin's core supporters: public sector workers, including teachers, doctors, law enforcement personnel, and pensioners. Their wages and benefits are tied to official inflation rates of 9 percent, but real inflation for many households exceeds 20 percent. Meanwhile, the central bank has delayed its target of returning inflation to 4 percent, pushing it back to mid-2026 as Kremlin spending priorities crowd out monetary policy objectives.

Firepower Supremacy.

As 2025 looms, the Kremlin remains steadfast in prioritizing war, despite its ever-mounting costs. For the third consecutive year, military expenditure dominates the federal budget, but a unique aspect of this year is the near-exclusive allocation of additional state revenues to defense—at the expense of all other sectors. Defense and security spending will exceed 8 percent of GDP and account for 40 percent of total federal expenditure, a record not seen since the Soviet Union's Cold War era. These funds are directed primarily toward two areas: arms production and military salaries.

The results of these investments are striking. Russia has doubled its production of armored vehicles and increased ammunition output fivefold at certain facilities. A new sector—mass production of military drones—has emerged, while funding for civilian drone programs has been slashed tenfold.

A significant portion of this budget supports Russia's burgeoning force of contract soldiers. With the army requiring 20,000 to 30,000 new recruits monthly, the Kremlin relies heavily on financial incentives to attract men to the front. Average enlistment bonuses, supplemented by regional allowances, now stand at 1. 1 million rubles ($11,000), with annual incomes ranging from 3. 5 million to 5. 5 million rubles ($34,000–53,000), depending on region and unit. These payouts place a heavy burden on regional budgets, with bonuses reaching as high as 2 million rubles ($19,000) in Moscow and 3 million rubles ($29,000) in the Belgorod region on the border with Ukraine. Such inflated sums reflect the shrinking pool of willing recruits, which is forcing authorities to offer additional incentives, such as debt forgiveness, university admission perks, and healthcare benefits for soldiers' families. Direct federal spending on new recruits alone is estimated at 1. 6–2. 4 trillion rubles ($16–23 billion), not including additional costs for wounded soldiers and compensation for families of the deceased—figures obscured by classified statistics.

Although the federal budget outlines modest reductions in defense spending for 2026–2027, military expenditure will remain elevated even if the war in Ukraine ends in 2025. Replenishing depleted arsenals will be costly, especially as inflation drives up production costs. Moreover, the entrenched military-industrial sector, sustained by generous state subsidies, is unlikely to accept cuts without resistance. NATO's expanding defense budgets provide further justification for Putin to maintain high military spending.

Meanwhile, "non-defense" budgetary allocations are stagnating or shrinking in real terms. Social services, national economic programs, and even internal security and law enforcement face funding cuts. Chronic underfunding and personnel shortages in Russia's Interior Ministry and Federal Penitentiary Service are expected to worsen. Increased tax revenues—up 73 percent in 2025 due to higher levies on businesses and households—are being funneled almost entirely toward military needs, leaving little for other sectors. The resulting imbalance will further drain the civilian economy, slowing growth and exacerbating social inequalities.

When the active phase of the war ends, spending on soldiers will be among the first to face cuts. With over 3 million people, including their families, directly affected by military service, reductions in benefits and income will impact a significant portion of the population. Sustaining long-term support for this group will be beyond the Kremlin's means, while withdrawing support for veterans is a risky business.

The massive payouts to soldiers and the broader surge in wages have created a paradoxical situation. While economic inequality has deepened, many Russians feel their standard of living has improved. Surveys indicate growing perceptions of a fairer distribution of income, with over 40 percent of respondents openly rejecting the need for personal freedoms or human rights, instead equating dignity with state-provided salaries and pensions. This sentiment may prove temporary, as inflation erodes the gains of war beneficiaries. But if it persists, it could cement a dangerous narrative: the association of Putin's wartime leadership with prosperity and economic growth, and peace with decline and humiliation.

When the war ends, the challenges will fall to Putin's successors. They will inherit an economy burdened by structural imbalances and a public disinclined toward sacrifice or reform. Businesses, too, will look back fondly on wartime "expanded demand" and the exodus of competitors, which left market gaps and undervalued assets in their wake. Yet the reckoning for today's policies will come, leaving a fractured economy in which the much-vaunted macroeconomic stability of prewar Russia has already been sacrificed on the altar of conflict.

Russia's Economic Tightrope.

Two critical indicators highlight the instability of Russia's economy: inflation, which has reached almost 9 percent since the beginning of 2024, and a key interest rate of 21 percent, which so far has done little to temper price growth.

The surge in inflation is fueled by domestic demand, primarily driven by state spending and rising wages among Russians. Domestic production struggles to meet this demand, necessitating higher imports and, consequently, increased reliance on foreign currency. This dynamic has weakened the ruble, which in late November suffered its sharpest drop, falling nearly 25 percent from its summer 2022 peak.

The government's options to stabilize the ruble are limited. Half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves remain frozen due to sanctions, while the remainder is reserved for potential threats to financial stability. Liquid assets in the National Wealth Fund are negligible, and with the key interest rate already at its peak, further hikes are unlikely. Compounding the challenge is the absence of foreign investors since 2022 and the capital controls introduced in 2023, which have undermined the effectiveness of monetary policy as a tool for exchange rate stabilization.

This situation exposes the structural constraints imposed by sanctions and the resource-based nature of Russia's economy. No significant increase in foreign currency earnings is anticipated, as export volumes are constrained by geography—primarily shipments to China, India, and other Asian nations—and by sanctions, which have inflated operational costs for logistics and cross-border transactions. The surplus in the current account is being consumed by rising expenditures, while the growing import dependency exacerbates the ruble's weakness and, in turn, inflation.

Business profitability is further eroded by rising costs: increased tariffs on rail transport, electricity, and gas, as well as higher logistics expenses and the expanding scope of sanctions. As a result, resource exports are nearing their limits; opportunities for technological exports are negligible; and productivity growth is stifled by sanctions.

External assistance seems unlikely. Despite its substantial trade relationship with Russia, China has shown little urgency in stepping into the role of a technological partner. For the Kremlin, this leaves the economy precariously balanced, with no clear pathway out of its structural vulnerabilities.

The Authoritarian Dividend.

The structure of Russia's market economy is steadily losing its flexibility under the weight of war and a centralized decisionmaking system that prioritizes control over dynamism. Subsidized sectors of the economy, insulated from interest rate fluctuations, are expanding rapidly. Beyond the military-industrial complex and its affiliates, preferential loans now underpin agriculture and real estate development as well. Meanwhile, the high key interest rate has significantly reduced corporate profits by driving up borrowing costs. Companies with heavy debt burdens face a dramatically increased risk of bankruptcy. Simultaneously, the Kremlin and the government are embracing a dirigiste approach to fiscal and monetary policy, increasingly dictating economic outcomes from above.

In Putin's Russia, administrative costs for implementing policy decisions are remarkably low. Without public debate or opposition, the government can impose new taxes on individuals and businesses with minimal resistance. The public does not protest, and lawmakers in the State Duma vote as instructed. Major resource companies have already been subjected to extraordinary profit levies, such as Gazprom in 2022 and Transneft in 2024. Fertilizer producers, still active in global markets and largely untouched by sanctions, are likely next in line.

Consensus within the government's economic bloc is not required; Putin alone determines the course of action. However, this centralized system carries hidden costs. The proliferation of emergency measures disrupts conventional management practices. Ad hoc decisions are becoming the norm, even in areas where institutional solutions could suffice. Policies increasingly prioritize immediate gains over long-term strategy. Complex, forward-looking initiatives are sidelined in favor of quick fixes. The lack of reliable information due to censorship and selective reporting undermines decision making at all levels of governance, including in the highest echelons of bureaucracy.

The Kremlin has amplified these shortcomings by constructing a synthetic reality, particularly in response to sanctions. The government meticulously avoids highlighting disruptions to daily life, instead projecting an image of "business as usual"—or even improvement. For instance, the authorities have stopped publishing critical economic data, including figures on foreign trade, oil production and exports, and the financial health of banks and corporations.

This suppression of data extends beyond analysts and the public. Bureaucrats themselves face restricted access to accurate information, leading to sanitized reports that omit inconvenient truths. Over time, this fabricated narrative becomes the basis for governance. Far from a mere oversight, this distortion is a deliberate feature of Putin's authoritarian system. While it offers short-term tactical advantages, it systematically erodes the foundations for sustainable growth and stability.

Despite revenue shortfalls, the 2025 federal budget includes a litany of extravagant projects, such as the construction of a high-speed rail link between Moscow and St. Petersburg and increased funding for import substitution in aviation. These initiatives suggest a government still behaving as though the economy is on steroids, even as the stimulative effects have largely dissipated.

The Post-2025 Future.

Russia's economic future beyond 2025 looks troubling. On the surface, economic growth and low unemployment create an illusion of stability for the country's new economic model. However, this model is already confronting three fundamental limitations: a shortage of labor, exhausted production capacities, and stagnating export revenues due to sanctions. The storm of government spending is sustaining the current state of affairs, but it cannot address the chronic problems that have long plagued the Russian economy. The sanctions regime—partially mitigated by China, India, and other Asian countries—only serves to reinforce these old ailments. The transactional costs associated with sanctions weigh heavily on the entire economy.

Each passing month intensifies the pressure. The Kremlin is approaching a tipping point when the social contract between the state and the people will inevitably shift. Russians are increasingly being asked to accept rising inequality and a decline in quality of life in exchange for short-term stability and symbolic pride in the idea of a "fortress nation. " But even this compromise is becoming less and less sustainable.

A sudden collapse akin to the 1990's is unlikely: the government still has the resources to maintain a minimum level of order and control. However, we are already witnessing a largely irreversible turn toward economic stagnation. Continued reliance on the military sector and a mobilization-driven model will trap Russia in a "stagnation trap" characterized by low growth and chronic internal imbalances. ".

https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/12/russia-economy-difficulties?lang=en

[Paulie97]

I used two stats to refute your bullshit notion Russia is going broke....Yeah, Elvis, but Putin is going down any day now. Some things never change.

https://www.logical-fallacy.com/articles/strawman/

P.S. Economic analysis is usually more complicated than two stats, especially if they have happen to be cherrypicked off Russian state media. Maybe they aren't, but feel free to cite your source. I just posted an interesting article.

Tiny, safe travels and have fun.

[Paulie97]

Putin has a whole lot higher approval rating than Ceausescu did.I'm hardly surprised that you fail to mention any concerns about the reliability of these polls, in a country at war where dissent is treated very harshly. If you could just come around and admit that Alexi Navalny died of natural causes, you'd get the t-shirt. Wink.

[Blood Red]

I also wish for this new year this war and also in Gaza will stop, but war in Ukraine is only because of Putin craziness, when nobody wanted to attack Russia, but Putin just dream about ex USSR again. Trump failed to stop war in Ukraine, as he did bullshit like always.You can believe whichever of the 2 main reasons being thrown around for the war.

1. NATO expansion (the real reason for the war).

2. The argument that Putin wants to expand Russia or revive the ex Soviet Union.

Evidence suggests that number 1 was the main reason for the war if you look at the facts logically. If Putin was interested in recreating the former USSR / expansion, he would've not gone through 2 Minsk agreements. He could've attacked Ukraine in 2008. He didn't.

[Elvis 2008]

Some things never change.

https://www.logical-fallacy.com/articles/strawman/

P.S. Economic analysis is usually more complicated than two stats, especially if they have happen to be cherrypicked off Russian state media. Maybe they aren't, but feel free to cite your source. I just posted an interesting article.Totally wrong. If income is sufficient to pay down debt, bankruptcy analysis is finished. Bankruptcy is not happening. It is not any more complicated than that.

If income is insufficient to pay down debt, you can look at assets and / or credit lines and / or increasing income. I only commented on how easy it was to increase income.

You used this same its too complicated bullshit when it came to Covid. The end result was $20 trillion spent on a virus twice as deadly the common flu.

Get your dick out of your head and quit jerking off to Russia going bankrupt. It is not happening.

[Elvis 2008]

I don't believe anyone is arguing that Russia will go bankruptThat is complete bullshit. The war hawks here have said the Russian economy will fail. Besides, I thought bankruptcy analysis was too complicated for you.


Both of you are big on pontificating, the latter big on bluster, and neither of you has a propensity toward source citations. While it's more than laughable when you guys complain about bias. LOL.And here we go again. You complain about bias while you inhale propaganda. Let's look at your article's final concluding statement, A sudden collapse akin to the 1990's is unlikely: the government still has the resources to maintain a minimum level of order and control. However, we are already witnessing a largely irreversible turn toward economic stagnation.

So the concluding statements are the sanctions have not worked but just you wait. IOW, I was totally wrong but I am sure that I will be right in the future.

But this is in the first part written: Predictions of a double-digit contraction never materialized. On the contrary, Russian GDP grew by 3. 6 percent in 2023 and an expected 4 percent in 2024.

If you look at the Western economies from 2022 to 2024, GDP growth was 0. 5 to 1. 9%. https://www.spiegel.de/international/business/wirtschaftsblunder-why-germany-s-economy-is-flailing-and-what-could-help-a-c5047bf2-0c66-4a8a-bf62-e52baaef0acd.

And here is another dumb comment, No significant increase in foreign currency earnings is anticipated, as export volumes are constrained by geography primarily shipments to China, India, and other Asian nations and by sanctions, which have inflated operational costs for logistics and cross-border transactions.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202411/1323279.shtml

Once fully operational, the pipeline will supply 38 billion cubic meters of Russian natural gas per year to Northeast China. The pipeline extends to Shanghai. The supply of Russian natural gas to China surged by 43 percent year-on-year in the first half of this year.

Okay, so there is a natural gas pipeline extending to Shanghai from Siberia that is now fully operational. So the geography constraints line is pure bullshit, and there are plans for a second pipeline.

Bottom line is Germany is not getting cheap natural gas and their economy has almost contracted because of it while China is enjoying the perks of cheap, clean natural gas.

And then there are food costs.

Historically high commodity prices, Russia's war in Ukraine, volatile fertilizer markets and other causes, have left many countries facing a cost-of-living crisis with double- and even triple-digit food price inflation. Zimbabwe has seen extreme year-on-year food price inflation reaching 285%, Venezuela is 158%, and the rate is 143% in Lebanon.

These nations need to quit griping about high food costs. How dare they. They must be Putin's dick suckers.


Call it a personal preference, but I'd rather listen to ISW or this guy than you or Elvis.Yeah, no shit. The guy is telling you that you have a 10 inch cock when you are jerking off. How do you like your sanctions now?

[Paulie97]

Make up your mind, is it Kremlin propaganda or Tiny in a nutshell?The two are one in the same, and that's why you persistently refuse to cite your sources. And you just added another fallacy to your aresenal. Congratuations.

https://www.logical-fallacy.com/articles/false-dilemma/


I know Robert Wright because he wrote The Moral Animal. I see, so you quote the guy as dissing ISW but still refuse to cite your source. Whoever the guy is, you don't have any more respect for him than your audience here. At least do like Elvis and link us to Zero Hedge once in a blue moon.

While you are at it, show us who has argued that Russia is about to go broke or bankrupt. That will include the articles I posted. Until you do, you and Elvis are just running around arguing with and knocking down your caricatures, a senseless, disingenuous circle jerk while of course citing no sources.

[Sirioja]

You can believe whichever of the 2 main reasons being thrown around for the war.

1. NATO expansion (the real reason for the war).

2. The argument that Putin wants to expand Russia or revive the ex Soviet Union.

Evidence suggests that number 1 was the main reason for the war if you look at the facts logically. If Putin was interested in recreating the former USSR / expansion, he would've not gone through 2 Minsk agreements. He could've attacked Ukraine in 2008. He didn't.Nobody threatened Russia, except Putin craziness. I wish Russia will be broke while war they wanted. But Putin money was hidden. Putin already fucked Crimea which was Ukrainian and is trying with Georgia and Romania, when they don t threaten him. World have to get rid of him, this would help Russians for a better life.

[Paulie97]

Totally wrong. If income is sufficient to pay down debt, bankruptcy analysis is finished. Bankruptcy is not happening. It is not any more complicated than that.

If income is insufficient to pay down debt, you can look at assets and / or credit lines and / or increasing income. I only commented on how easy it was to increase income.

You used this same its too complicated bullshit when it came to Covid. The end result was $20 trillion spent on a virus twice as deadly the common flu.

Get your dick out of your head and quit jerking off to Russia going bankrupt. It is not happening.But see in spite of your homosexual projections no one here has argued that Russia is about to go bankrupt, while you've yet to produce a quote from any ISG member or author of any article posted that has made this claim. So you are just circle jerking your dick in your head arguing against your imaginations, and apparently put a lot of very wasted time into it this morning. I'm glad that I could be such a positive influence. LOL.

P.S. You were made a fool of all during Covid, especially with the much higher hospitalization rates per 100 K pop in blue states. Mitigation efforts such as masks and social distancing all in all proved effective, as is also common sense with any disease that is spread through aerosols and droplets. But I guess Elvis will be going around to all the hospitals telling the doctors and nurses to stop wearing masks because it offends his hyper sensitive, conspiracy theory chasing political sensibilities.

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10684792/

Covid in the final analysis also was significantly more deadly than the flu.

Early in Covid the differences were drastic.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4677

That while differences were still substantial over the flu seasons of 2022 and 23.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2024-05-15/covid-19-remains-deadlier-than-the-flu

What a shame for you, to have spent at least half your waking hours for two years jacking off in a hooker forum making a fool of yourself about Covid, when you could have been getting laid or earning money instead.

[Sirioja]

Putin and Netanhyaou are international law prosecuted. Even Russians made free Auschwitz Birkenau 80 years ago and big thanks to them, but Putin was not invited for birthday, when nobody want to see him, but Zelensky was welcome in Poland. I don t think Netanhyaou was welcome.

[Paulie97]

From my prior post.

"P.S. You were made a fool of all during Covid, especially with the much higher hospitalization rates per 100 K pop in blue states. ".

Red states not blue.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/red-blue-america-glaring-divide-covid-19-death/story?id=83649085

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38034472/

[Paulie97]

You can believe whichever of the 2 main reasons being thrown around for the war.

1. NATO expansion (the real reason for the war).

2. The argument that Putin wants to expand Russia or revive the ex Soviet Union.

Evidence suggests that number 1 was the main reason for the war if you look at the facts logically. If Putin was interested in recreating the former USSR / expansion, he would've not gone through 2 Minsk agreements. He could've attacked Ukraine in 2008. He didn't.The freedom and democracy promoted by NATO is more popular than the dark and repressive world that you, Elvis, and Tiny twist yourselves in knots trying to defend and cheer for. The agency of these freedom loving nations, like Sweden, Finland, and many Eastern Euro nations cannot be ignored. They have expanded into NATO.

[Questner]

Armistice by Easter, peace by May the 9th. Political circles in Ukraine are discussing Trump's 100-day plan for Ukraine, quote:

In recent days, the political and diplomatic circles of Ukraine have been actively discussing the schedule allegedly already drawn up by Trump and his team to end the war in 100 days. It is alleged that it was handed over by the Americans to a number of European diplomats. And from them he got to Ukraine. Note that at the moment we do not have confirmation of the authenticity of this "plan". Perhaps this is really a plan drawn up by Trump's team, or perhaps it is a kind of "apocrypha" compiled on the basis of the "Kellogg Plan" made public last year before the US presidential election. There are signs that point to both the first and the second option.

However, given the great public attention to the topic of a peaceful settlement, we decided to publish it.

So, according to the "schedule", Trump plans to hold a telephone conversation with Putin in late January. Early February. In early February, it is planned to discuss the plan with the Ukrainian authorities.

As a result of Washington's communication with Moscow and Kiev, the negotiations can either be paused (if no common ground can be found) or continue (if such points are found).

In the second case, the following further schedule is provided.

Zelensky must repeal the decree that prohibits negotiating with Putin.

During February. The first half of March 2025, it is proposed to hold a meeting between Trump and Zelensky and Putin (a trilateral meeting or two bilateral meetings will be decided separately). It should approve the main parameters of the peace plan, and then continue work on an agreement at the level of special envoys.

While negotiations are underway and hostilities continue, Trump is not blocking the sending of military aid to Ukraine.

From April 20,2025 (Easter, which this year is celebrated on the same day by all Christian denominations), it is proposed to declare a truce along the entire front line. At the same time, all Ukrainian troops must be withdrawn from the Kursk region.

At the end of April 2025, the International Peace Conference should begin its work, which will record an agreement between Ukraine and the Russian Federation to end the war with the mediation of the United States, China, a number of countries in Europe and the Global South.

At the end of April, the exchange of prisoners will begin according to the "all for all" formula.

By May 9, a declaration of the International Peace Conference on the end of the war in Ukraine based on the agreed parameters is envisaged.

After May 9, Ukraine is offered not to extend martial law and mobilization.

At the end of August, presidential elections are held in Ukraine, and at the end of October. Parliamentary and local elections.

The proposed parameters of the agreement to be concluded within the framework of the International Conference:

1. Ukraine will not be a member of NATO and declares neutrality. The decision to ban the admission of Ukraine to the Alliance must be approved at the NATO summit.

2. Ukraine will become a member of the EU by 2030. The EU is committed to the post-war reconstruction of the country.

3. Ukraine is not reducing the size of the army. The United States pledges to continue supporting the modernization of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

4. Ukraine refuses military and diplomatic attempts to return the occupied territories. But it does not officially recognize the sovereignty of the Russian Federation over them.

5. Some of the sanctions against the Russian Federation will be lifted immediately after the conclusion of a peace agreement. Part. For three years, depending on Russia's compliance with the parameters of the agreement. All restrictions on the import of Russian energy resources to the EU will be lifted. But he, for a certain time, will be subject to a special duty by the Europeans, the funds from which will be used to restore Ukraine.

6. Parties advocating for the protection of the Russian language and for peaceful coexistence with Russia should be allowed to participate in the elections in Ukraine. All actions against the Ukraine Orthodox Church and the Russian language must be stopped at the state level.

7. The paragraph on the European peacekeeping contingent after the end of hostilities was singled out as particularly problematic. On the one hand, Kiev demands this as a security guarantee. On the other hand, they are categorically opposed by the Russian Federation. Separate consultations between all parties should be held on this item.

As for our assessment of the further development of events, we gave it in the article of January 23, and this assessment remains unchanged so far.

In short, the key point will be which strategy Trump chooses.

Namely, whether he will now offer Putin any "peace plans" and negotiate with him, or will he take the position promoted by the "party of war" in the West and the Ukrainian authorities: not to offer anything to the Kremlin at all, not to talk about any compromises with it, but to increase pressure on the Russian Federation economically (through sanctions and lower oil prices) and military (through increased arms supplies to Ukraine). And then wait until Putin himself asks for peace and accepts the dictated conditions.

If Trump follows this path, then by Easter and by May 9, we may not expect the end of the war, but its sharp escalation. With the prospect of drawing NATO countries directly into the military conflict.

If Trump decides to put forward peace proposals now, then the key question is whether he will be able to agree on them with Putin. Here, of course, everything will depend on the proposed conditions, but the chances that it will be possible to come to an agreement on the end of the war in the near future in this case are far from zero.

Which path Trump will take will become clear in the coming weeks, depending on whether he has direct and public contact with Putin, and if so, what the outcome of the conversation will be.

[Blood Red]

The freedom and democracy promoted by NATO is more popular than the dark and repressive world that you, Elvis, and Tiny twist yourselves in knots trying to defend and cheer for. The agency of these freedom loving nations, like Sweden, Finland, and many Eastern Euro nations cannot be ignored. They have expanded into NATO.The world has seen the freedom and democracy promoted and implemented by NATO in:

Iraq.

Afghanistan.

Somalia.

Yemen.

Syria.

Serbia.

Libya.

Now we have Ukraine wrecked.

Thanks, but no thanks.

[Blood Red]

Armistice by Easter, peace by May the 9th. Political circles in Ukraine are discussing Trump's 100-day plan for Ukraine, quote:

As a result of Washington's communication with Moscow and Kiev, the negotiations can either be paused (if no common ground can be found) or continue (if such points are found).

In the second case, the following further schedule is provided.

Zelensky must repeal the decree that prohibits negotiating with Putin.

During February. The first half of March 2025, it is proposed to hold a meeting between Trump and Zelensky and Putin (a trilateral meeting or two bilateral meetings will be decided separately). It should approve the main parameters of the peace plan, and then continue work on an agreement at the level of special envoys.

While negotiations are underway and hostilities continue, Trump is not blocking the sending of military aid to Ukraine.

From April 20,2025 (Easter, which this year is celebrated on the same day by all Christian denominations), it is proposed to declare a truce along the entire front line. At the same time, all Ukrainian troops must be withdrawn from the Kursk region.

At the end of April 2025, the International Peace Conference should begin its work, which will record an agreement between Ukraine and the Russian Federation to end the war with the mediation of the United States, China, a number of countries in Europe and the Global South.

At the end of April, the exchange of prisoners will begin according to the "all for all" formula.

By May 9, a declaration of the International Peace Conference on the end of the war in Ukraine based on the agreed parameters is envisaged.

After May 9, Ukraine is offered not to extend martial law and mobilization.

At the end of August, presidential elections are held in Ukraine, and at the end of October. Parliamentary and local elections.

The proposed parameters of the agreement to be concluded within the framework of the International Conference:

1. Ukraine will not be a member of NATO and declares neutrality. The decision to ban the admission of Ukraine to the Alliance must be approved at the NATO summit.

2. Ukraine will become a member of the EU by 2030. The EU is committed to the post-war reconstruction of the country.

3. Ukraine is not reducing the size of the army. The United States pledges to continue supporting the modernization of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

4. Ukraine refuses military and diplomatic attempts to return the occupied territories. But it does not officially recognize the sovereignty of the Russian Federation over them.

5. Some of the sanctions against the Russian Federation will be lifted immediately after the conclusion of a peace agreement. Part. For three years, depending on Russia's compliance with the parameters of the agreement. All restrictions on the import of Russian energy resources to the EU will be lifted. But he, for a certain time, will be subject to a special duty by the Europeans, the funds from which will be used to restore Ukraine.

6. Parties advocating for the protection of the Russian language and for peaceful coexistence with Russia should be allowed to participate in the elections in Ukraine. All actions against the Ukraine Orthodox Church and the Russian language must be stopped at the state level.

7. The paragraph on the European peacekeeping contingent after the end of hostilities was singled out as particularly problematic. On the one hand, Kiev demands this as a security guarantee. On the other hand, they are categorically opposed by the Russian Federation. Separate consultations between all parties should be held on this item.
.This is interesting and I think there is common ground here that may be acceptable to Russia, although not completely.

Putin has already said that the basic requirement to end the war with Ukraine are:

1. Recognition that Crimea + the 4 new territories (entirely) are Russian.

2. Neutrality for Ukraine and never joining NATO.

If those 2 conditions are accepted, there can be a pathway to peace. Point 2 is addressed in what you posted, OK. But what about point 1 in full, that is not clear. Let's see. I think if what you posted is accurate, the Russians will look very closely at it. Overall, that plan looks a bit realistic at least.

[Elvis 2008]

no one here has argued that Russia is about to go bankruptLOL. You just presented a paper claiming double digit GDP contraction. I guess you do not know what that means.


P.S. You were made a fool of all during Covid, especially with the much higher hospitalization rates per 100 K pop in blue states.Blue or red in what election? Why not use counties or cities? How did you account for obesity, smoking, diabetes, age ETC? How did you account for interstate transfer of patients? Oh, you did not. You just made that up.


Mitigation efforts such as masks and social distancing all in all proved effective.Yeah, they were so effective that there were more cases in 2021 than 2020.


But I guess Elvis will be going around to all the hospitals telling the doctors and nurses to stop wearing masks because it offends his hyper sensitive, conspiracy theory chasing political sensibilities.Yeah, this was such a liberal Democratic disease with all the virtue signaling. You wear your mask, social distance, and then come home, have dinner, eat inches away from each other, and cough among your family. Great strategy. No wonder 75% of the cases of Covid were caught at home.


Early in Covid the differences were drastic.Jesus, do you ever learn anything? https://stanfordreview.org/stanfords-censorship-an-interview-with-dr-jay-bhattacharya/.

The reason was that, at the time, there was limited testing and they were identifying a lot of people with COVID who were very sick. But we weren't testing broadly in the entire population; we were just testing people who showed up in the hospital, for instance. The disease had been spreading. But the death rate implied by our study was something like 0. 2 percent, whereas the World Health Organization was telling people that the death rate was 3. 5 percent.

And that study was done in April 2020.


What a shame for you, to have spent at least half your waking hours for two years jacking off in a hooker forum making a fool of yourself about Covid, when you could have been getting laid or earning money instead.Yeah, well unlike you, I did not waste 2 years of my life in my basement scared shitless over a cold virus, so I have a little more time to waste.

[FreshPrince841]

This is interesting and I think there is common ground here that may be acceptable to Russia, although not completely.

Putin has already said that the basic requirement to end the war with Ukraine are:

1. Recognition that Crimea + the 4 new territories (entirely) are Russian.

2. Neutrality for Ukraine and never joining NATO.

If those 2 conditions are accepted, there can be a pathway to peace. Point 2 is addressed in what you posted, OK. But what about point 1 in full, that is not clear. Let's see. I think if what you posted is accurate, the Russians will look very closely at it. Overall, that plan looks a bit realistic at least.But If Ukraine agrees to these terms especially the one about never joining Nato and being neutral, why did they go to war in the first place?

I mean they could have negotiated with Putin during February 2022 when Russia started invading Ukraine and most likely Putin would have stopped the war.

I think these terms will be a total loss for Ukraine, especially that half the country is destroyed, and they lost about 20% of Ukraine or more.

[FreshPrince841]

This is interesting and I think there is common ground here that may be acceptable to Russia, although not completely.

Putin has already said that the basic requirement to end the war with Ukraine are:

1. Recognition that Crimea + the 4 new territories (entirely) are Russian.

2. Neutrality for Ukraine and never joining NATO.

If those 2 conditions are accepted, there can be a pathway to peace. Point 2 is addressed in what you posted, OK. But what about point 1 in full, that is not clear. Let's see. I think if what you posted is accurate, the Russians will look very closely at it. Overall, that plan looks a bit realistic at least.I still think that Russia will want more than the four regions they declared, I think they will cross the Dniper river and continue invading kherson all the way to Odessa as Odessa is the crown jewel for them. I think they may have plans to divide Ukraine and plus they are also seizing more land in Kharkov which is not in the declared four regions and they are also close to Dnipropetrovsk. I lived in Odessa for some time and so sad to see this beautiful city and country be destroyed like this.

[Xpartan]

The one thing I will agree with you is that Russians and Ukrainians are indeed Brothers and it's such a tragedy that this NATO expansion bullshit pushed them to fight each other. I hope there will be a reconciliation after the war is over when the people of Ukraine will realize that the collective west took them down the primrose path and really doesn't give 2 shits about them. That in my opinion is inevitable.So your so-called soldiers who are robbing, raping and killing Ukrainian civilians are robbing, raping and killing their own family?

Well, sounds like what Russians have been doing like forever.

Nothing new here.

[Xpartan]

I'm hardly surprised that you fail to mention any concerns about the reliability of these polls, in a country at war where dissent is treated very harshly. If you could just come around and admit that Alexi Navalny died of natural causes, you'd get the t-shirt. Wink.Pollster: Is Vladimir Putin a great leader or the greatest leader ever?

Russian citizen: Hmm.

Pollster: Allow me to repeat: Is Vladimir Putin, the Supreme Commander of the Russian Armed Forces a great leader or the greatest ever?

Russian citizen: I don't know, I'm just, you know- Undecided.

Pollster: Thank you, next question -- what's your take on the Criminal Code Article 20.3. 3: Discrediting of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation?

Russian citizen: Ahh- greatest?

Pollster: Thank you for your cooperation.

[Xpartan]

Why does no one see it?

He's only interested in peace that would satisfy Putin.

Which is a CAPITULATION.

All his threats and saber rattling is a performance, nothing more.

Tariffs? Russia is an impoverished, third-world country that isn't selling anything to the US. Threatening Russia with tariffs is as sensible as threatening Gabon.

I wonder why no one, including most Ukrainians, can't see Trump for what he really is. Putin's puppet.

Putin's doing the only thing he knows how -- bluffing. His economy is circling the drain, no matter what propacondoms and useful idiots would have you believe. He know that no matter how obedient his people are, they will revolt when there's nothing to eat.

Some Putin's economic woes have nothing to do with the war. The agricultural crisis, considering that he's now stealing crops from several regions of Ukraine, is entirely on the idiotic policies of his cabinet. But for the most parts, Russia simply can't wage this war indefinitely, and he knows this. If there were a real president in the White House, a fair peace could be achieved.

Unfortunately, we don't have a real president, we have a bullshiter-in-chief.

Ukraine must be prepared to keep fighting. There are zero chances for a just peace with Trump in power.

[Elvis 2008]

This is interesting and I think there is common ground here that may be acceptable to Russia, although not completely.

Putin has already said that the basic requirement to end the war with Ukraine are:

1. Recognition that Crimea + the 4 new territories (entirely) are Russian.

2. Neutrality for Ukraine and never joining NATO.

If those 2 conditions are accepted, there can be a pathway to peace. Point 2 is addressed in what you posted, OK. But what about point 1 in full, that is not clear. Let's see. I think if what you posted is accurate, the Russians will look very closely at it. Overall, that plan looks a bit realistic at least.BR, you and Questner are voices of sanity. Tucker Carlson said yesterday that Secretary of State Blinken under Biden was trying to assassinate Putin. Now you may find that hard to believe or not, but Blinken is the asshole who rounded up the intelligence experts to lie and say Hunter Biden's laptop was classic Russian disinformation. And this asshole's planned lie was why Biden won in 2020. I do not know what the guy's beef was with Russia, but what we do know is whatever shit Hunter Biden was doing in Ukraine, he has been pardoned for. So the Democrats were doing some sleazy shit in Ukraine, and I hope it comes out.

What is so sad is that I think our "intelligence" agencies, which just lied their asses off, are a bigger threat to our democracy than Putin is. I would be shocked if Trump did not think that. Tucker Carlson had a reporter on looking into Trump's assassin. Keep in mind when the FBI went after the innocent Richard Jewel, they had him pictured like a freak within 48 hours. With this assassin, the FBI is not giving up anything, and it is really weird.

So I think given the common enemy, the Democrats and the "intelligence" agencies, that Trump and Putin will get this peace deal done and shove it in their face. I do not see anything Putin wants as unreasonable, but I do think Putin's concern is what to do if the lying Democratic douches return to power in 2028. To me, that is going to be the sticking point, and I am not sure Trump is going to be able to help that much with that issue.

[Sirioja]

This is interesting and I think there is common ground here that may be acceptable to Russia, although not completely.

Putin has already said that the basic requirement to end the war with Ukraine are:

1. Recognition that Crimea + the 4 new territories (entirely) are Russian.

2. Neutrality for Ukraine and never joining NATO.

If those 2 conditions are accepted, there can be a pathway to peace. Point 2 is addressed in what you posted, OK. But what about point 1 in full, that is not clear. Let's see. I think if what you posted is accurate, the Russians will look very closely at it. Overall, that plan looks a bit realistic at least.I love the country Russia, but Putin stole Crimea to Ukraine which is fully right to resist and decide what they want, not what crazy shameful Putin ask. World don t have to listen to dictator Putin, same like world don t have to accept what senile Trump want. Big support to Ukraine, Greenland / Denmark, Canada and Panama.

[Sirioja]

North Koreans who helped weak Russia are leaving first line after too many deaths, when so courageous Ukrainians are able to resist with their balls to big Russia which need North Korea help.

[Xpartan]

I still think that Russia will want more than the four regions they declared, I think they will cross the Dniper river and continue invading kherson all the way to Odessa as Odessa is the crown jewel for them. I think they may have plans to divide Ukraine and plus they are also seizing more land in Kharkov which is not in the declared four regions and they are also close to Dnipropetrovsk. I lived in Odessa for some time and so sad to see this beautiful city and country be destroyed like this.So many things Russia wants. So many rivers to cross.

Forget the Dnieper. Russia also wants to cross the Elba, Seine and Potomac. Don't you know that Russia's borders don't end anywhere?

Their chances to cross the Dnieper and take Kharkov and Odessa are about the same, though, so save your crocodile tears.

You also wanted to take Kyiv in three days and the whole Ukraine in 72. It's been three years now since you wanted this.

Keep dreaming.

[Questner]

Today The President spoke about the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis in an interview with Pavel Zarubin:

An excerpt from Vladimir Putin's interview with VGTRK journalist Pavel Zarubin about the prospects for settling the Ukrainian crisis. Under what conditions are negotiations possible? Can the illegitimate Zelensky sign anything? And what result do they all ultimately want?

P. Zarubin: "A few days ago I managed to ask you a question about the prospects for a Ukrainian settlement. And you said something very important then, which had a big resonance, everyone is discussing it now, that since there is a decree by Zelensky banning negotiations with Russia, then if we imagine that such negotiations are underway, have begun, then they will be illegitimate, and their results can be called illegal at any moment. This caused a big resonance, the next day Zelensky was already making excuses, he said that he did not ban negotiations for everyone, he allegedly left this opportunity for himself, and he said that he adopted this decree in conditions when Russian troops were stationed near Kiev. He explained this by the fact that it was supposedly necessary to fight separatism, it was necessary to preventively fight possible shadow negotiations along various lines and channels with Russia. And so he ended his speech by saying that "I am the leader of the negotiations, and I have banned the rest of the negotiations. " How do you like this reaction?

V. Putin: "Our negotiations began immediately after the start of the NWO. Initially, we told the Ukrainian leadership at that time that the people in the LPR and DPR did not want to be part of Ukraine, get out of there and that's it, that's the end of it. There are no military actions, there is no war, we will not fight. That was back in late February 2022, then contact meetings began in Belarus, then we moved to Istanbul. What happened there? Somewhere around the end of March, we received a paper from Kyiv, by the way, with the signature of the head of the Ukrainian negotiating group, Mr. Arakhamia. And it was these Ukrainian proposals, I want to emphasize this, this is very important, that formed the basis of the draft peace treaty developed in Istanbul. And this took place on April 15. But before that, some European leaders told me on the phone that it was impossible for Ukraine to sign a peace treaty, as one of my colleagues put it. I already said it, I think I even called it with a gun to my temple. Yes, good. And what needs to be done? It is necessary to withdraw troops from Kyiv. It was clear to us in principle that deception was entirely possible. For decades, Russia was deceived, they said one thing and did something completely different. Nevertheless, based on considerations of preventing bloodshed, some serious war, we nevertheless agreed to this. And at the end of March, we began to withdraw troops from Kyiv in two directions, in two columns. On April 4, the withdrawal was completed. Some of the troops left through Belarus, and some directly to the territory of the Russian Federation. On April 4, the withdrawal was completed. And the paper that we agreed on in Istanbul was drawn up on April 15, when there were no longer any Russian troops near Kyiv. And practically on the same day, although there were things in it that were controversial, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs pointed this out, and a number of our other government agencies, nevertheless, I agreed that we were ready to implement this document. And right on the evening of the 15th or the 16th, we transmitted to Kyiv that we agreed to finalize this, well, to sign this document. There was practically nothing left to process, there was only one point that the Ukrainian side proposed to consider and put an end to at a personal meeting of the two presidents. I agreed with this, but suddenly information came from Kyiv that they needed to consult with their allies and they were taking a week's break. Well, they consulted, as is known, Mr. Johnson, then the Prime Minister of Great Britain, arrived, probably at the instigation of the former American administration headed by Mr. Biden, and persuaded the Ukrainians to continue the war. And, in fact, no one is hiding this, and the Ukrainian officials themselves, and quite high-ranking ones, later said this publicly. And the British leadership does not hide this, they also speak about it openly. They refused this agreement and decided to continue the war. But, frankly speaking, we immediately received a signal from Kyiv, as we were told then, now we will fight to the last Ukrainian. So for now, either we fight you, or you fight us, in general. They did not decide to sign the agreement. But, I repeat once again, on April 4, 2022, there were no longer Russian troops near Kiev, and the agreements were finally agreed upon on April 15, and the decree banning negotiations was signed at the end of September and entered into force on October 4, that is, six months after the draft peace agreement was agreed upon. Therefore, to say that the ban on negotiations was introduced when Russian troops left Kiev is, well, completely incorrect, and, as it were, on such serious issues as trying to mislead your society, the world community, well, at the very least, incorrect. But this simply once again emphasizes who we are dealing with. If Zelensky says that you can negotiate with him, well, makes it clear that you can negotiate with him, in your opinion? You can negotiate with anyone, but due to his illegitimacy, he does not have the right to sign anything. But if he wants to take part in the negotiations, I will appoint people who will conduct these negotiations, please. The question is about the final signing of the documents. This is a very serious issue that should guarantee the security of both Ukraine, by the way, and Russia for a serious, long-term historical perspective. And there can be no blunders, no rough edges, everything must be honed in accordance with the Constitution of Ukraine, the President of Ukraine in conditions, even in conditions of martial law, does not have the right to extend his powers. Only representative bodies of power, only the Rada, that is, the country's parliament, have the right to extend their powers. And the president has only a five-year term, that's all, nothing more. Then his powers are transferred to a representative of the Rada. But if there is a desire to negotiate and find compromise solutions, let anyone conduct these negotiations there, we will, naturally, achieve what suits us, what corresponds to our interests. But in the case of signing documents, here, of course, everything must be so that lawyers confirm to us the legitimacy of those people who will be authorized by the Ukrainian state to sign these agreements. "But if he wants to take part in the negotiations, I will appoint people who will conduct these negotiations, please. The issue is the final signing of the documents. This is a very serious issue that should guarantee the security of both Ukraine, by the way, and Russia for a serious, long-term historical perspective. And there cannot be a single mistake, not a single rough spot, everything must be honed in accordance with the Constitution of Ukraine, the President of Ukraine in conditions, even in conditions of martial law, does not have the right to extend his powers. Only representative bodies of power have the right to extend their powers, only the Rada, that is, the country's parliament. And the president has only a five-year term, that's all, nothing more. Then his powers are transferred to the representative of the Rada. But if there is a desire to conduct negotiations and find compromise solutions, let anyone conduct these negotiations there, we will, naturally, achieve what suits us, what corresponds to our interests. But in the case of signing documents, here, of course, everything must be such that lawyers confirm to us the legitimacy of those people who will be authorized by the Ukrainian state to sign these agreements. "But if he wants to take part in the negotiations, I will appoint people who will conduct these negotiations, please. The issue is the final signing of the documents. This is a very serious issue that should guarantee the security of both Ukraine, by the way, and Russia for a serious, long-term historical perspective. And there cannot be a single mistake, not a single rough spot, everything must be honed in accordance with the Constitution of Ukraine, the President of Ukraine in conditions, even in conditions of martial law, does not have the right to extend his powers. Only representative bodies of power have the right to extend their powers, only the Rada, that is, the country's parliament. And the president has only a five-year term, that's all, nothing more. Then his powers are transferred to the representative of the Rada. But if there is a desire to conduct negotiations and find compromise solutions, let anyone conduct these negotiations there, we will naturally achieve what suits us, what corresponds to our interests. But in the case of signing documents, here, of course, everything must be such that lawyers confirm to us the legitimacy of those people who will be authorized by the Ukrainian state to sign these agreements. ".

P. Zarubin: "And they should cancel the decree banning negotiations, right?

V. Putin: "Well, yes, if we start negotiations now, they will be illegitimate. There is, however, I haven't spoken about this, but I will say, there is, however, a problem. Why? Because when the current head of the regime, that's the only way to call him today, signed this decree, he was a relatively legitimate president, but now he can't cancel it because he is illegitimate. That's the trick, the catch, you see, the trap. But, in principle, by and large, if they want to do this, there is a legal way. Please, let the Rada representatives do this in accordance with the Constitution. If there is a desire, any legal issue can be closed. Well, so far we simply don't see such a desire. Well, I think that his Western sponsors cannot exist, they won't last a month if the money and, broadly speaking, the bullets stop. That's it, it will all be over in a month or a month and a half or two. In this sense, Ukraine's sovereignty is almost zero. If their Western sponsors want to achieve peace, well, the path is very simple. I once sent a corresponding signal about this. If there is a desire, that's it, please. And then they will quickly find all legal ways to close legal issues, including canceling this decree banning negotiations. ".

[Paulie97]

There's a whole lot more places to go, and deep into the realm of secondary sanctions against countries that aid Russia. The Kremlin faithful of ISG aren't moved though, in spite of Russia's now extremely high inflation and interests rates, all is still rosy. This while they hide their disappointment that Trump has yet to come to their rescue, and in fact thus far the opposite has occurred.

"China may have increased its trading ties with Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine, but sanctions have forced many Chinese financial institutions to scale back economic ties with Moscow for fear of secondary sanctions.

Russia is likely to continue trying to circumvent oil sanctions but how China responds to the threat of facing secondary sanctions could undermine this.

Meanwhile, following the latest sanctions, Chinese and Indian refiners are looking to other suppliers of crude away from Russia, according to Reuters on Monday, citing energy traders. ".

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-shadow-fleet-sanctions-china-coast-2013815

[Paulie97]

"China and India have suspended March purchases of Russian oil as USA Sanctions drive up shipping costs, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing traders and shipping data. ".

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/01/28/china-and-india-halt-russian-oil-purchases-for-march-reuters-a87774

The US has PLENTY more in it's hip pocket, while there's plenty of leverage against China.

"A significant source of deterrence lies in America's recognition of just how much the Chinese economy relies on supplying USA Companies. China's confidence in using the economic coercion card far outstrips the nature of its true position, and two can play at that game. After all, China's single largest trading balance by far is with the United States, which nearly equals the entirety of the EU and ASEAN balances. China's suppliers receive roughly $3 from the USA For every $1 that its end markets spend on USA Products. ".

https://thehill.com/opinion/4940101-china-economic-coercion-power/

And it's all plenty complicated. Anyone that claims it isn't is a clown that isn't worth your attention, no matter which side you fall on with these issues.

[Tumeric1]

Today The President spoke about the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis in an interview with Pavel Zarubin:

. ".Who is the "customer" here? Who asked for it? Who believes one thing that comes out of putin's constantly lying mouth?

[Xpartan]

I say we're way classier than this.

Seriously, a mongering forum has turned into a place where ISG member Questner consistently posts every piece of garbage coming from the leader of RFMS (Russian Failed Mafia State). Anyone remember Giuliani's press conference in front of Four Seasons Landscaping between a sex shop and a crematorium? Can it be that Questner is every bit as confused as Giuliani finding himself in front of that 5-star landscaping company?

[FreshPrince841]

So many things Russia wants. So many rivers to cross.

Forget the Dnieper. Russia also wants to cross the Elba, Seine and Potomac. Don't you know that Russia's borders don't end anywhere?

Their chances to cross the Dnieper and take Kharkov and Odessa are about the same, though, so save your crocodile tears.

You also wanted to take Kyiv in three days and the whole Ukraine in 72. It's been three years now since you wanted this.

Keep dreaming.Greetings Xpartan,

Who is " you " that you are referring to in your comments?

I am not Russian, and I am against the war.

[Paulie97]

The world has seen the freedom and democracy promoted and implemented by NATO in:

Iraq.

Afghanistan.

Somalia.

Yemen.

Syria.

Serbia.

Libya.

Now we have Ukraine wrecked.

Thanks, but no thanks.Post 911 War on Terror activity is apples and oranges to the situations in Central and Eastern Europe, where you failed to name a single unhappy former USSR NATO member. This while while you were just expelled from Syria and your guy in Serbia just stepped down. And of course you started the war in Ukraine. Nice try Ivan.

[Paulie97]

LOL. You just presented a paper claiming double digit GDP contraction. I guess you do not know what that means.I scanned over the articles I posted recently, and the only one that uses the terminology in question said the exact opposite of what you claim. If I missed something, quote and link us to the content so I can disagree with it.



"Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy has repeatedly defied expectations. Predictions of a double-digit contraction never materialized. On the contrary, GDP grew by 3. 6 percent in 2023 and an expected 4 percent in 2024: rates that both developed and developing nations might envy.” Alexandra Prokopenko One can familiarize themselves with the entire argument here, while you never rebutted any of it, other than to wrench a quote out of context and mention Russia's trade relations in Asia. The author had already acknowledged these as mitigating factors to sanctions.

https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/12/russia-economy-difficulties?lang=en

Also while we are here, tell us why you believe the current near 10% inflation and 21% interest rates in Russia are no big deal. Tiny just gave us assurances that all would be well soon then went on a much deserved vacation. I'm sure the audience would be interested in some specifics.

Keep in mind the audience will notice if you ignore any of these challenges.

[Paulie97]

Blue or red in what election? Why not use counties or cities? How did you account for obesity, smoking, diabetes, age ETC? How did you account for interstate transfer of patients? Oh, you did not. You just made that up. Numerous variables were accounted for in the studies you were linked to, some were recent, some older. You obviously didn't bother reading them. Mitigation measures were demonstrated as effective. You also persistently ignore the fallout from the abundance of self-centered morons like you. That's why death rates were higher in red states.


Yeah, they were so effective that there were more cases in 2021 than 2020. You just made the case for mitigation measures, which were more prevalent in 2020, while the pandemic didn't get off the ground until April. You completely ignore that COVID hospitalizations were more prevalent among the unvaccinated. Vaccination is also associated with much improved outcomes in those hospitalized.

https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-024-09865-1


https://stanfordreview.org/stanfords-censorship-an-interview-with-dr-jay-bhattacharya/Yawns. Parroting another Stanford hack I see, who complains that all his colleagues are making fun of him. I'm not surprised since he's drawing sweeping conclusions based on one US county. I'll look up the rebuttals online when I get home from vacation.

Covid wrecked a lot of death in 2020 & 21, many times more than the flu.

https://www.who.int/news/item/05-05-2022-14.9-million-excess-deaths-were-associated-with-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-2020-and-2021

P.S. "Virtue signaling?" If caring about the well being of other humans is virtue signaling then sign me up, while you are free to live out your karma.

[Paulie97]

Here's a few highlights. He sounds like the ideal sidekick for RFK, Jr. LOL.

"Bhattacharya, an economist with a medical degree who never completed a residency and does not practice medicine, is not slated to provide continuity at the NIH. On the contrary, he has called for 'an absolute revamping of the scientific community. '.

"Dismissing this reality is easy when you have never treated a COVID patient in your life and when you co-authored a deeply flawed study in April 2020 that made the virus appear less threatening than it was. Bhattacharya's team drew the blood of over 3,000 people living in Santa Clara County, California, to see how many had antibodies against the coronavirus. They concluded that the virus had infected many more people than suspected, which meant that its fatality rate was lower than expected. Problems, however, were later uncovered: many of the people who had donated blood had not been randomly selected but were residents of a wealthy section of Silicon Valley who had been invited to participate by Bhattacharya's wife; the invitation presented the testing as a way to find out if they could "return to work without fear," thus aiming for people who knew or suspected of having recently been infected; and the entire thing had been funded in part by the founder of JetBlue Airways who wanted to keep his planes in the air. I would argue here that science knelt in front of politics. ".

https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/medical-critical-thinking-pseudoscience/bhattacharya-decide-fate-medical-research

[Paulie97]

The one thing I will agree with you is that Russians and Ukrainians are indeed Brothers and it's such a tragedy that this NATO expansion bullshit pushed them to fight each other. I hope there will be a reconciliation after the war is over when the people of Ukraine will realize that the collective west took them down the primrose path and really doesn't give 2 shits about them. That in my opinion is inevitable.


So your so-called soldiers who are robbing, raping and killing Ukrainian civilians are robbing, raping and killing their own family?

Well, sounds like what Russians have been doing like forever.

Nothing new here.That would be the biggest touche I've ever read in this forum. That's the worst of it, then there's all the looting, stealing toilets, washing machines, and phone cases. The North Korean twits are getting in on that as well. Cry me a river BR.

[Elvis 2008]

Here's a few highlights. He sounds like the ideal sidekick for RFK, Jr. LOL.

"Bhattacharya, an economist with a medical degree who never completed a residency and does not practice medicine, is not slated to provide continuity at the NIH. On the contrary, he has called for 'an absolute revamping of the scientific community. '.

"Dismissing this reality is easy when you have never treated a COVID patient in your life and when you co-authored a deeply flawed study in April 2020 that made the virus appear less threatening than it was. Bhattacharya's team drew the blood of over 3,000 people living in Santa Clara County, California, to see how many had antibodies against the coronavirus. They concluded that the virus had infected many more people than suspected, which meant that its fatality rate was lower than expected. Problems, however, were later uncovered: many of the people who had donated blood had not been randomly selected but were residents of a wealthy section of Silicon Valley who had been invited to participate by Bhattacharya's wife; the invitation presented the testing as a way to find out if they could "return to work without fear," thus aiming for people who knew or suspected of having recently been infected; and the entire thing had been funded in part by the founder of JetBlue Airways who wanted to keep his planes in the air. I would argue here that science knelt in front of politics. ".

https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/medical-critical-thinking-pseudoscience/bhattacharya-decide-fate-medical-researchI cannot believe you still want to talk about this. It is fine to criticize a study for its methodology if the results are way out of line with others and to criticize the funding source, but they were not. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20) 30244-9/ fulltext.

For example, some countries are able to invest resources into contact tracing and containing the spread through quarantine and isolation of infected or suspected cases. In Singapore, where these measures have been implemented, the CFR of 631 cases (as of March 25,2020) is 03%.

The trend in mortality reporting for COVID-19 has been typical for emerging infectious diseases. The case fatality rate (CFR) was reported to be 15% (six of 41 patients) in the initial period,1 but this estimate was calculated from a small cohort of hospitalised patients. Subsequently, with more data emerging, the CFR decreased to between 43% and 110%,2,3 and later to 34%. 4 The rate reported outside China in February was even lower (04%; two of 464). 5.

I cannot believe how dumb you are then. You are quoting numbers when there was not proper screening of the whole population to see how many people had been infected with Covid and thinking those early values were real. And this lancet paper was from July 2020. Do you know how to read?

[Xpartan]

Greetings Xpartan,

Who is " you " that you are referring to in your comments?

I am not Russian.Then try not to sound like a Russian propagandist.

[Xpartan]

That would be the biggest touche I've ever read in this forum. That's the worst of it, then there's all the looting, stealing toilets, washing machines, and phone cases. The North Korean twits are getting in on that as well. Cry me a river BR.It seems Comrade Un isn't happy about the rate of the annihilation of the North Korean glorious forces.

Kim Jong un lashes out at Russia's heavy troop losses

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kim-jong-un-lashes-out-at-russia-s-heavy-troop-losses/ar-AA1y84Bs


Some units of the contingent of more than ten thousand North Korean soldiers who joined the Russian forces fighting the Ukrainian army in the Russian Kursk region have been withdrawn from the front line due to the high number of casualties.

Ukrainian presidential advisor Mikhail Podoliak said, It seems that even Kim Jong-un values the lives of his subjects more than Putin values the lives of Russians.

Mr. Podoliak cites reports from Ukrainian special operations forces as a source of information on the withdrawal of North Korean military units.

Advisor to the Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky adds that North Korean President Kim Jong-un considers the 40% loss of troops deployed in Russia to date unacceptable.

[Xpartan]

Also while we are here, tell us why you believe the current near 10% inflation and 21% interest rates in Russia are no big deal. Tiny just gave us assurances that all would be well soon then went on a much deserved vacation. I'm sure the audience would be interested in some specifics.

Keep in mind the audience will notice if you ignore any of these challenges.And then there is real inflation in Russia, which stands between 20% and 30%.

[Elvis 2008]

Numerous variables were accounted for in the studies you were linked to, some were recent, some older. You obviously didn't bother reading them.LOL. Ok fine, here is a quote from your POS paper. "In terms of COVID-19 related deaths, red and blue states in 2020 did not differ significantly" and "COVID-19 deaths in 2020 did not significantly correlate with mitigation efforts. " Meta analysis after the Covid epidemic showed none of the interventions you swore by worked. https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD006207.pub6/full. Feel smart now?

Of course, Democratic douches do not care if something works or not. They spend money and pass laws so it looks like they care. So mask up, kiddies! Zelensky, you need any more money?

But 2021 is the year of the vaccinated, and blue states had more vaccinated people than red states. This from your study, "In terms of COVID-19 related deaths, red and blue states in 2020 did not differ significantly. COVID-19 deaths in 2021, however, were significantly less in blue compared to red states. ".

See Elvis? Suck it, we Dems were way smarter than you Republican retards. That is science baby. Uh, well.

If you use the same lame analysis as the fools in your paper did, the vaccine was killing people in the UK under 60.

Then you get to Germany, and the same pattern emerges. https://dailysceptic.org/2023/02/12/the-link-between-german-excess-mortality-and-the-covid-vaccines/?highlight=covid.

From the beginning of April 2021 onwards the start of the vaccination campaign excess mortality suddenly increases continuously up to the youngest age groups and the number of stillbirths is increasing. Nine months later, a massive and sustained decrease in live births is observed.

And even if the vaccine worked, there is this https://www.noahsnewsletter.com/p/who-should-get-vaccinated.

The risk of death from Covid for 70 year olds is about two orders of magnitude greater than that for 30 year olds, and is about three orders of magnitude greater than that for 20 year olds. This means you need to vaccinate about a thousand 20 year olds to save the same number of lives as vaccinating one 70 year old. For 20 year olds who've already had Covid, it's probably closer to a million.

Uh, why the fuck would anyone as of today be stupid enough to defend vaccinating young men, women of child bearing age, and the absolute most fucking stupid, pregnant women? Not looking good, Paulie. At best, you dumb Democratic douches were saving a few fossils while bumping off newborns.

As for the UK data, like with the red and blue state analysis, in 2021, there is a clear showing of decreased death in the elderly being vaccinated. Okay, Elvis, that is it. We lowered the death rate. Yeah, problem is you did not dive deeper. One paper did and concluded that based on the UK data, you cannot say that the vaccines prevent death, even in the elderly. As to why, there is this, https://www.normanfenton.com/post/simple-evidence-showing-the-ons-data-on-mortality-by-vaccine-status-is-systemically-flawedNotice What could possibly explain a 60% increase in non-covid deaths in 2022 among the unvaccinated and a 5% drop in non-covid deaths among the vaccinated?

If the vaccine worked, there should be a lot more deaths in the unvaccinated group when there was a Covid spike, and there was not. There should also be a similar number of non-Covid deaths in the vaccinated and unvaccinated, and once again, there was not.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357778435_Official_mortality_data_for_England_suggest_systematic_miscategorisation_of_vaccine_status_and_uncertain_effectiveness_of_Covid-19_vaccination At first glance the ONS data suggest that, in each of the older age groups, all-cause mortality is lower in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated. This conclusion is cast into doubt upon closer inspection of the data due to a range of fundamental inconsistencies and anomalies in the data.

So which is the bigger Democratic douche fuckup, Covid or Ukraine? Man, you dumb Democratic douches leave so many dead bodies behind, it is hard to say. I am going to go with Covid because you douches can still deny shit on Ukraine. Russia is going bankrupt. Putin is not going to be in power in 6 months.

Well, at least we know now why Fauci got pardoned. If the vaxxed pregnant women who had stillborns knew the truth, they would be scratching Fauci's eyes out.

[Sirioja]

And then there is real inflation in Russia, which stands between 20% and 30%.And many guys have to go to be killed at war for 2000 € per month, to make survive their family. Wish war will make fast Russia broke.

[Xpartan]

On August 6, AFU invaded the Kursk Oblast in Russia, almost immediately capturing a few hundreds Russian POWs and killing scores of others.

In the 7 months that followed, the Glorious Fascist Armed Forces of the RF have been unable to drive the Ukrainians out. Ukraine still controls around 500 sq. Km. Of territory in Kursk while almost 200 sq. Km. Are still being in the Gray Zone. All in all, 62,000 combined Russo-Korean troops have been unable to defeat 20,000 Ukrainians.

In other news: : Comrade Un removed his cyborgs from the frontlines due to their faster-than-expected obliteration. 4,000 elite North Korean troops are dead and wounded, which is 40% of what he sent to his friend Vlad as a symbol of brotherly love.

In other news: Putin, it seems, has lost all hope to "liberate" Kursk anytime soon. In January he mentioned Kursk just once across all his public speeches.

In other news: Russia hit a boarding school in Unraine-controlled Sudza in Kursk Oblast where a hundred of RUSSIAN civilians was living after previous Russian bombardments had destroyed their own homes. Four people are dead and four are seriously wounded.

On the same day Russia hit an apartment building in Ukraine's Poltava killing 14. Like I said a few posts below, Russia kills Russians and Ukrainians with equal vigor and enthusiasm, and has been doing so for centuries.

For some people, indiscriminate killings of civilians (even your own civilians!) are a war crime. For Russians it's business as usual. Nothing new there.

[Xpartan]

Russia experiences deadliest months in Ukrainian with nearly 100,000 soldiers lost

What warring nation can sustain this kind of losses? Seriously!

Yes, it's true that life in Russia is so horrible that people of all ages still sign up for huge $50,000 bonuses. But even if enough new recruits volunteered (there aren't nearly enough) it would cost Russia $5 billion monthly to (ONLY) replace their losses. And that's just the SIGN UP BONUSES that don't include all other military expenditures.

$60 billion annually in the US money just to get them to the frontlines!

One would have to be totally out of whack to believe this is sustainable.


Russia has experienced its two deadliest months in the ongoing Ukrainian conflict, with nearly 100,000 soldiers lost since December's onset.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence released figures indicating that Russia suffered losses of 48,670 personnel in December and 48,240 in January, marking these as the most devastating months of the entire conflict.

Russia has been locked in a stalemate with Ukraine as both sides have interchanged military blows, while Putin regularly threatens nuclear action against Ukraine and Western powers.

Putin's troops 'increasingly slaughtering Ukraine captives'
Peace in Ukraine is more likely to come through Putin being abducted by aliens
These casualty numbers, averaging 1,556 people per day, encompass those killed, wounded, captured, or missing, underscoring the Russian leadership's continued readiness to sacrifice lives for their strategic objectives.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, this brings the total Russian losses to 841,660 as Putin's forces persist in launching offensives in the Kursk and Donetsk regions.

Notably, these figures do not account for North Korean troops.https://www.the-express.com/news/world-news/162568/ukraine-conflict-russian-troop-losses

[Riina]

What warring nation can sustain this kind of losses? Seriously!
Your employer has been closed down. How much did this government aid agency pay you to write this nonsense.

[VinDici]

Your employer has been closed down. How much did this government aid agency pay you to write this nonsense.Cope harder. If you don't agree, explain with reasoning, examples and evidence instead.

[Xpartan]

Your employer has been closed down. How much did this government aid agency pay you to write this nonsense.$6,969. Why? How much are you getting?

[Sirioja]

Russia experiences deadliest months in Ukrainian with nearly 100,000 soldiers lost

What warring nation can sustain this kind of losses? Seriously!

Yes, it's true that life in Russia is so horrible that people of all ages still sign up for huge $50,000 bonuses. But even if enough new recruits volunteered (there aren't nearly enough) it would cost Russia $5 billion monthly to (ONLY) replace their losses. And that's just the SIGN UP BONUSES that don't include all other military expenditures.

$60 billion annually in the US money just to get them to the frontlines!

One would have to be totally out of whack to believe this is sustainable.

https://www.the-express.com/news/world-news/162568/ukraine-conflict-russian-troop-lossesRussians are just meat for Putin, when many in Russia are poor. Kursk invaded by Ukrainians is just for negociation, when they don t want to rob, like Putin robbed Crimea. I m proud my France support Ukraine, defending freedom.

[Blood Red]

But If Ukraine agrees to these terms especially the one about never joining Nato and being neutral, why did they go to war in the first place?

I mean they could have negotiated with Putin during February 2022 when Russia started invading Ukraine and most likely Putin would have stopped the war.

I think these terms will be a total loss for Ukraine, especially that half the country is destroyed, and they lost about 20% of Ukraine or more.With all due respect, I think you're missing some very key information due to ignorance or whatever reason. Let me share some honest news with you and you can google this if you don't believe me.

During the peace talks in Istanbul a month or so after the full scale war started (March 2022), Zelensky had agreed to neutrality and not joining NATO. This is on record. This would have stopped the war. But then what happened and why did the war not stop?

Well, Boris Johnson flew to Kiev and told the corrupt actor Zelensky to keep on fighting, that the collective west would send billions of dollars in weapons and cash (which they did) and to fight on. And that's what the puppet did. He sacrificed his entire country. As I have said many times, history will judge this clown very harshly.

[Blood Red]

I love the country Russia, but Putin stole Crimea to Ukraine which is fully right to resist and decide what they want, not what crazy shameful Putin ask. World don t have to listen to dictator Putin, same like world don t have to accept what senile Trump want. Big support to Ukraine, Greenland / Denmark, Canada and Panama.Crimea was taken without a bullet being fired or a single person being killed. Why do you think that is? The population there is Russian. They voted to join Russia. End of story.

[Blood Red]

Post 911 War on Terror activity is apples and oranges to the situations in Central and Eastern Europe, where you failed to name a single unhappy former USSR NATO member. This while while you were just expelled from Syria and your guy in Serbia just stepped down. And of course you started the war in Ukraine. Nice try Ivan.Well, America aka NATO decided to 'spread democracy' after 9/11. Look at the result, you can't deny any of what I posted. And the Russian military bases in Syria are still up for discussion, try to keep up.

[Blood Red]

That would be the biggest touche I've ever read in this forum. That's the worst of it, then there's all the looting, stealing toilets, washing machines, and phone cases. The North Korean twits are getting in on that as well. Cry me a river BR.I stated facts. The collective west is ultimately responsible for this war and making 2 Brothers fight. They have been doing it for a long time. They made the Shias and Sunnis fight after 9/11 in Iraq with the criminal invasion. None of this is new. Read up on history.