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https://www.theamericanconservative.com/the-gathering-storm/
Here is a solution to the conflict: "We should support regime change in the United States, that's far more important," Trump wrote. "The Biden administration are the ones who got us into this mess. ".
By the way, for anyone who thinks Ukrainians were involved in the pipeline explosion: not only it were technically improbable for them to succeed, but they would have better steal the pipes than just damage them.Why don't you simply link directly to the Kremlin? At least that would be more honest. Sites like Russia Today don't try to mask their content as anything other than the pro-Putin propaganda it is. That's better than sites and opinion writers who claim to be conservative whilst having their lips firmly wrapped around LilliPutin's dick.
https://youtu.be/lL4T6m2nZEk
https://youtu.be/lL4T6m2nZEkHow is the view from your window Vatnik?
https://youtu.be/lL4T6m2nZEkLife in prison is better than he deserves. Unfortunately I doubt the Hague has kept the death penalty.
Probably his best option is a quick demise at the hands of one of his "trusted" cronies. Et tu, Brute?
Life in prison is better than he deserves. Unfortunately I doubt the Hague has kept the death penalty.
Probably his best option is a quick demise at the hands of one of his "trusted" cronies. Et tu, Brute?Et tu sounds about right. Hard to imagine that his henchmen will allow him to travel to Hague and run his mouth. Too many real skeletons in real closets.
He'll be dealt with quietly. They're not going to sodomize him like Gaddafi or shoot him like Ceausescu. After all, it's almost a family matter. As in Cosa Nostra.
He'll probably succumb to a heart attack. Quiet, realistic, venerable.
It seems that the infamous Putin's collaborator, head of the so-called Donetsk People Republic and war criminal to boot, has decided to finally run away from the "Russian World. " Far, far away.
Senor Pushilin who seems to proudly possess a Brazilian passport, purchased a 6,000 sq. Ft. Lot in Jaguaruna in Santa Catarina, to the south of Floripa. Looks quite a nice lot to me right in front of the ocean. Much nicer than a noose awaiting him in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/f_o_r_Ukraine/status/1636095289986539522?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1636095289986539522%7Ctwgr%5E82a08c68777c76bae8bd377fc69bba0739dc7a0a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2F11t57p0%3Fresponsive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse
Why don't you simply link directly to the Kremlin? At least that would be more honest. Sites like Russia Today don't try to mask their content as anything other than the pro-Putin propaganda it is. That's better than sites and opinion writers who claim to be conservative whilst having their lips firmly wrapped around LilliPutin's dick.American Conservative as a source = Holocaust denying Pat Buchhanan isolationist inspired Putin deep throatings. No Putin doesn't get to steal Ukraine. The runs on Kyiv and other major cities betray intentions. He wants all, and thought the West would turn away again but we didn't. So it's clear where everything is going, and it won't be good for Putin.
American Conservative as a source = Holocaust denying Pat Buchhanan isolationist inspired Putin deep throatings. No Putin doesn't get to steal Ukraine. The runs on Kyiv and other major cities betray intentions. He wants all, and thought the West would turn away again but we didn't. So it's clear where everything is going, and it won't be good for Putin.Agree with everything in your post. And, as to your point about Putin betraying his intentions, I think he's gotten to a place where he no longer cares about disguising them. He's thoroughly deluded himself and those delusions will lead him to his doom.
For example, even though the Russian Orthodox Church only espouses Kremlin-approved positions, I think Putin actually believes the delusion that he has a special mission (God-given or otherwise) to reclaim 'historic' Russian lands, like a modern-day Peter the Great, and lead Slavic peoples against the degenerate West. Unfortunately for him, no one outside Russia wants to be under Moscow's authority and post-Soviet countries are adamant they're not going back to those former times.
Another way Putin has deluded himself, IMO, is by buying into the Stalingrad myth. Russians love to reference this battle as evidence they can withstand any hardship and prevail against weaker-willed enemies. There are a LOT of flaws with that view. Here are some that come to mind:
1. Hitler made what many agree was a fatal error when he decided to open a second front in the war. This current war has only one front, and Ukraine has no distractions preventing them from applying all their strength and attention to the goal of repelling Putin's invasion.
2. Stalingrad was a defensive battle for the Soviets, with German forces at a logistical and geographical disadvantage. The current war is exactly the opposite, with Russia being forced to extend and maintain military supply lines deep into occupied territory.
3. It's an essential tenet of the Stalingrad myth that Russians repelled the German army all by themselves, and that their efforts led directly to Hitler's eventual defeat. The reality is that the USSR received enormous amounts of Lend-Lease aid from Allied countries, without which they might not have prevailed or might have paid a much higher price. In this current war, Ukraine is the country receiving the lion's share of military aid. Russia is lucky if they can get a few drones from Iran and some dual-use microchips from China.
https://www.rbth.com/history/335471-how-lend-lease-helped-ussr
4. Russia is not the USSR. They don't have the USSR's industrial resources or the USSR's demographics and manpower. There are various estimates but some put the number of able-bodied men who've fled the draft at upwards of one million. And that doesn't count the brain-drain of others who have left for a variety of other reasons. Oh, and many of the USSR's "strong-willed" warriors were drawn from the populations of areas that are no longer part of Russia, including Ukraine. While the resolve of some could waver, the resolve of Ukraine (and also Poland, the Baltics, and others) will not be shaken.
As with Hitler, once a dictator's delusional mindset takes hold, it's hard to see what could change it. No one is going to be bold (or suicidal) enough to tell him he's wrong. And any setback will be blamed on the incompetence or betrayal of subordinates. How and when the "doom deadline" will be reached is hard to say, but Putin is well on his way.
The joke of the day: 'Once upon a time in the Small Kingdom there lived a depleted uranium ammo shell. And one day he travelled east. And he returned to his homeland enriched. And this is how both the tale and the Small Kingdom ended. '.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/republican-2024-hopefuls-respond-tucker-carlsons-questions-about-stance-russia-ukraine-war
Vatnik Cope of the Day: 'Once upon a time in the Small Kingdom there lived a depleted uranium ammo shell. And one day he travelled east. And he returned to his homeland enriched. And this is how both the tale and the Small Kingdom ended. '.Once upon a time, there was pedo with a tiny dick, he invaded Ukraine and stole it's children. The Ukrainians rose up and the world helped them, Muscovites turned for help, but there was none, then one day they invited Winnie the Pooh to their house, they gave him lot's and lots' of honey, but Winnie only gave kind words and felt sorry for the dirty Muscovites, he invited them instead to become the Belarus of Pooh land, and the Muscovites cried and wept, but they accepted, because they had no friends. And this is how the tale of how the Small Kingdom of Muscovy ended. The world lived happily ever after and the Muscovites lived in servitude to Winnie the Pooh for the rest of their sad lives.
No one is going to be bold (or suicidal) enough to tell him he's wrong. And any setback will be blamed on the incompetence or betrayal of subordinates. How and when the "doom deadline" will be reached is hard to say, but Putin is well on his way.Great analysis. Putin used to be just a common thief, common not because he stole little, but because he plundered according to his Big Kahuna status, just the way it's normally done in Russia. But in the last 20 years, he's gotten convinced he was a God or at least Peter the Great reincarnate. That metamorphosis is what's turned a common thief into an uncommon global villain.
That said, the process of "telling him he's wrong" has already started. Lately, he's been wildly and brutally criticized by a convicted war criminal Girkin-Strelkov, the former so-called DNR "Defense Minister. ".
Prominent military blogger and former Russian commander Igor Girkin has again disparaged Vladimir Putin, saying that the president should "shut up" about aspects of his full-scale invasion.
In a video uploaded to his Telegram social media channel, the former FSB officer, who led Moscow-backed forces in the Donbas region from 2014, said that Putin does not act like he is the president "of a huge country with over 1,000 years of history."https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-slammed-igor-girkin-over-crimea-visit-1788758
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-girkin-fsb-putin-weakness-shut-1789177
As a "retired" FSB colonel, Girkin would never dare tell Putin to shut up if he wasn't sure that FSB would provide impunity. Hence the question: why would FSB allow anyone to badmouth the boss?
Perhaps, Putin's personal doomsday may arrive sooner than we think.
Great analysis. Putin used to be just a common thief, common not because he stole little, but because he plundered according to his Big Kahuna status, just the way it's normally done in Russia. But in the last 20 years, he's gotten convinced he was a God or at least Peter the Great reincarnate. That metamorphosis is what's turned a common thief into an uncommon global villain.
That said, the process of "telling him he's wrong" has already started. Lately, he's been wildly and brutally criticized by a convicted war criminal Girkin-Strelkov, the former so-called DNR "Defense Minister. ".
https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-slammed-igor-girkin-over-crimea-visit-1788758
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-girkin-fsb-putin-weakness-shut-1789177
As a "retired" FSB colonel, Girkin would never dare tell Putin to shut up if he wasn't sure that FSB would provide impunity. Hence the question: why would FSB allow anyone to badmouth the boss?
Perhaps, Putin's personal doomsday may arrive sooner than we think.Girkin (AKA Strelkov) is an interesting figure. He certainly is a vocal critic of the way Russia's war is being conducted and led, but, when it comes to personal criticism of Putin, he's usually pretty careful about how close to the line he gets.
In this particular instance, his verbiage is more nuanced than it appears at first glance.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1637950468952391681
If you watch the video clip (4 m 26's) you'll notice that the direct criticism is aimed primarily at Putin's speechwriters. So Girkin is saying that, in the wake of the ICC arrest warrant, the speechwriters are failing Putin (and Russia) by not telling him to be quiet. Since I don't speak Russian, I don't know if the phrase used for "shut up" is as harsh and direct as it is in English. Whatever the case, you can see the tightrope walk in action as he frequently uses wording that allows him to maintain the (obvious) fiction that he's only criticizing Kremlin flunkies for their failures. And, while I haven't watched the clip referred to in the first article (cretinism comment), it's my guess Girkin was playing the same transparent game.
Of course it's absolutely true that Putin, if sufficiently displeased, could order Girkin's assassination at a moment's notice. I've seen a couple of theories as to why that hasn't happened. One theory is that Girkin still has enough in the way of FSB connections to offer him protection, as long as he doesn't go too far. The other is that the Kremlin allows him to serve as a mouthpiece for ultranationalists who are dissatisfied with the war effort. I have no idea if either of these are correct, but they're both contingent on a successful negotiation of the tightrope by Girkin. If or when he screws up, we'll know soon enough.
By their very nature, any sanctions regime is a dynamic process as the sanctioned nation works to avoid them and the nations enforcing the sanctions work to tighten them. It's certainly possible to find stories on both sides, but here's one that highlights the fact that sometimes a very small sanctioned item can have an outsized effect:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/22/2159645/-Quick-Explainer-Russia-s-lack-of-range-finders-or-why-ancient-T55s-are-being-pulled-from-storage
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/09/now-russia-is-adding-inferior-optics-to-its-t-80-tanks-too/
Both articles focus on the lack of modern optics for use in Russian tanks. No matter how many they produce, repair, or refurbish, that weak link is a major disadvantage for Russian armored forces. At a minimum, it probably undermines the ability for any significant offensive push relying on tanks. That makes it more likely that Russia may need to continue their use of "human wave" tactics for offensive action and may have to settle for trying to defend territory they currently hold.
Just to clarify, this info isn't meant as a general assessment of the effectiveness of sanctions, or lack thereof. It's just a single data point that I found interesting. Everyone is free to draw their own conclusions and we'll probably have to wait until after the war ends before we get a more comprehensive picture.
Girkin (AKA Strelkov) is an interesting figure. He certainly is a vocal critic of the way Russia's war is being conducted and led, but, when it comes to personal criticism of Putin, he's usually pretty careful about how close to the line he gets.
In this particular instance, his verbiage is more nuanced than it appears at first glance.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1637950468952391681
If you watch the video clip (4 m 26's) you'll notice that the direct criticism is aimed primarily at Putin's speechwriters. So Girkin is saying that, in the wake of the ICC arrest warrant, the speechwriters are failing Putin (and Russia) by not telling him to be quiet. Since I don't speak Russian, I don't know if the phrase used for "shut up" is as harsh and direct as it is in English. Whatever the case, you can see the tightrope walk in action as he frequently uses wording that allows him to maintain the (obvious) fiction that he's only criticizing Kremlin flunkies for their failures. And, while I haven't watched the clip referred to in the first article (cretinism comment), it's my guess Girkin was playing the same transparent game.
Of course it's absolutely true that Putin, if sufficiently displeased, could order Girkin's assassination at a moment's notice. I've seen a couple of theories as to why that hasn't happened. One theory is that Girkin still has enough in the way of FSB connections to offer him protection, as long as he doesn't go too far. The other is that the Kremlin allows him to serve as a mouthpiece for ultranationalists who are dissatisfied with the war effort. I have no idea if either of these are correct, but they're both contingent on a successful negotiation of the tightrope by Girkin. If or when he screws up, we'll know soon enough.This is actually a clip I meant when I said that Girkin has begun criticizing Putin the way he never did before. And criticizing might even be a wrong word here. Telling Putin to shut up and calling him a "rug" (bad translation BTW, it sounds much worse in Russian, like spineless or gutless) used to be unthinkable. In his earlier clips, Girkin carefully avoided badmouthing Putin, focusing instead on his henchmen, but not anymore. I think after the failures on the battlefield and the latest ICC announcement, FSB has shifted into a higher gear. In other words, I don't see Girkin taking this risk without at least a tacit approval from his superiors, but we'll see.
Some essential daily listening https://youtu.be/WDoXRbr860U.
John Clayton
03-24-23, 06:03
Some essential daily listening https://youtu.be/WDoXRbr860U.Macgregor has gone off the deep end. He is a paid shill for RT. He's a traitorous, russian loving, jew hating, racist, misogynistic kook -- smart, but still a kook.
Some essential daily listeningAre your Chinese lessons progressing well? One tip from Russian social media is to learn how to bow the proper way, if in doubt bend your back lower so you don't offend your new masters, keep your ass high and forehead low. There are lot's of guides in Russian spreading around, so I'm sure you will be fine if you follow these instructions.
Are your Chinese lessons progressing well? One tip from Russian social media is to learn how to bow the proper way, if in doubt bend your back lower so you don't offend your new masters, keep your ass high and forehead low. There are lot's of guides in Russian spreading around, so I'm sure you will be fine if you follow these instructions.At least, the Vatnik-in-Chief learned the lesson, interacting with Xi the way a vassal is supposed to interact with his feudal lord and protector. It was a lot of fun to watch. But hey, at least he gets to threaten the West with the nukes. Totally worth it, I'm sure.
And yes, Mandarin is a tough language to learn, but they'll manage as long as they start early in life.
The only thing I'm curious about at this point is how long it'll take for China to return to the borders of 1857. I think Vegas should start taking bets on the matter.
https://russiaglobal.omeka.fas.harvard.edu/items/show/23
This is actually a clip I meant when I said that Girkin has begun criticizing Putin the way he never did before. And criticizing might even be a wrong word here. Telling Putin to shut up and calling him a "rug" (bad translation BTW, it sounds much worse in Russian, like spineless or gutless) used to be unthinkable. In his earlier clips, Girkin carefully avoided badmouthing Putin, focusing instead on his henchmen, but not anymore. I think after the failures on the battlefield and the latest ICC announcement, FSB has shifted into a higher gear. In other words, I don't see Girkin taking this risk without at least a tacit approval from his superiors, but we'll see.But that clip still came across (at least to me) as being more pointedly directed at Putin's failed advisers. But there's no question that Girkin uses that device as a thin veil for criticism of Putin himself. And there's also no question that he's changed his focus from the failures of the military leadership to the failures within the Kremlin itself.
In this latest clip he used the ICC arrest warrant as his excuse. It'll be interesting to see what he says in the coming days. If he goes back to bashing generals, that's one possible path. If he continues to focus on Putin, no matter what he uses as a facade, that'll be a significant change, IMO. He has nowhere to go, so his survival depends on how well he's protected and how well he can navigate treacherous waters.
Macgregor has gone off the deep end. He is a paid shill for RT. He's a traitorous, russian loving, jew hating, racist, misogynistic kook -- smart, but still a kook.There is always a way to take an honest comparison between his resume and anyone else's on this board. There were some goofs on TAC related to the WWII. His reviews are a bit synthetic and he is promoting his book but overall he is right on the assessment. You can always say him face to face of your opinion of him. No matter of his character in your eyes, he is just a messenger. So let's not deflect from the message. There is another thing which I always find amusing, it's taking everything you hear on face value. You don't need to be a warmonger to be a patriot. Nowadays when you open any article on any MM you read 'this is what you have to know'. No, you just have do your homework. And by the way, since RT's accounts in the US have been closed the best way for us to pay him in a truly American way is to buy his books. Thank you for your response.
There is always a way to take an honest comparison between his resume and anyone else's on this board. There were some goofs on TAC related to the WWII. His reviews are a bit synthetic and he is promoting his book but overall he is right on the assessment. You can always say him face to face of your opinion of him. No matter of his character in your eyes, he is just a messenger. So let's not deflect from the message. There is another thing which I always find amusing, it's taking everything you hear on face value. You don't need to be a warmonger to be a patriot. Nowadays when you open any article on any MM you read 'this is what you have to know'. No, you just have do your homework. And by the way, since RT's accounts in the US have been closed the best way for us to pay him in a truly American way is to buy his books. Thank you for your response.MacGregor is just one of many pundits who are selling their opinions on the airwaves and internet. If all you care about is finding someone who is consistently pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine, then he's a great choice, as is convicted pedophile Scott Ritter.
But, if you value ACCURATE analysis, MacGregor is an abject failure. He's made quite a few predictions and every one has been completely WRONG.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4140076/posts
He's like the guy who conceitedly thinks he can time the market and consistently loses money for those foolish enough to listen to him. Seriously, if you were placing bets on the accuracy of his predictions, you'd be in the poorhouse.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But, after multiple wrong predictions, only a fool would continue to view MacGregor as anything other than one of many talking heads who are using this crisis to get a few moments in the spotlight.
John Clayton
03-25-23, 06:29
There is always a way to take an honest comparison between his resume and anyone else's on this board...Give us a single instance where he has made a correct prediction about Russia or Ukraine in the last nine years.
Elvis 2008
03-25-23, 15:23
Give us a single instance where he has made a correct prediction about Russia or Ukraine in the last nine years.Give us a single instance where you have been right about anything JC. How many Covid boosters you at now? Now that the misinformation, disinformation board has been dissolved, are you looking for work?
Elvis 2008
03-25-23, 15:54
4. Russia is not the USSR. They don't have the USSR's industrial resources or the USSR's demographics and manpower. There are various estimates but some put the number of able-bodied men who've fled the draft at upward
As with Hitler, once a dictator's delusional mindset takes hold, it's hard to see what could change it. No one is going to be bold (or suicidal) enough to tell him he's wrong. And any setback will be blamed on the incompetence or betrayal of subordinates. How and when the "doom deadline" will be reached is hard to say, but Putin is well on his way.Sure, the Russians fucked up in WW2 as badly as any other European country and they just had more land in which to retreat. And yeah, there was land-lease and the USA sent in an ungodly amount of supplies, but Ukraine is not as strong as Germany was either.
The way the Russians fight is to have a corrupt dumb as shit PC military leader in place, and he loses his ass and then someone competent is put in charge. The Russians then use their superior number of bodies to wear down their opposition and win. The average Russian male still carries with him a slave / serf mindset and does what he is told albeit often when drunk.
As for Putin, others noticed what I did, the swollen face and tremor. The speculation is that he has cancer and / or Parkinson's. You got a guy without all his marbles who has his hand on the nuclear button and there is talk of victory? Regardless of the war, Putin's days are numbered. It would not surprise me if he is not the one making decisions now he is so far gone.
In the near future, you have the problem of declining Ukrainian grain and sunflower exports and loss of fertilizer from Belarus and Russia which could lead to world famine. The world dodged a bullet in 2022. Europe had a warm winter and harvests were plentiful.
Then you have bank failures. How much money is going to flow into Ukraine if Western economies are brought into recession? Switzerland got hit with a banking crisis and Germany appears next. If the Republicans win in 2024, the funding for Ukraine is going to be scrutinized much more.
My question about this war has always been: what is victory for Ukraine? That is what everyone pro-Ukrainian keeps talking about, and I do not get what that means. I do get what victory is for American defense contractors and that is perpetual war and to me, that seems to be where we are at.
...desperate vatnik cope...Awesome idea for a picture, but a more accurate version would be the Brown Bear desperately sucking the cock of the Panda, while the Panda yawns with disappointment.
Give us a single instance where he has made a correct prediction about Russia or Ukraine in the last nine years.I don't know. It's not his role to predict and make false prophecies. The wheels of history are slow and maybe we shall see how this is going to end. The decision to leave Afghanistan was made in 2011 and ended in a debacle ten years later: loosing to goat herders in sandals.
Give us a single instance where you have been right about anything JC. How many Covid boosters you at now? Now that the misinformation, disinformation board has been dissolved, are you looking for work?Don't know about JC. I'm up to date with two boosters and never caught Covid even when in the immediate proximity to those who have. Which doesn't mean I'm guaranteed never to catch it: this is what dumb vaccine deniers can't get into their thick dumb skulls. The vaccine is not supposed to prevent the disease in 100% of cases, but it's supposed to make it less deadly. Which it does.
Sure, the Russians fucked up in WW2 as badly as any other European country and they just had more land in which to retreat. Your historical knowledge is on a par with everything else you "know". The Russians never retreated beyond Moscow during the WW2. In fact, they pushed the Germans back from Moscow in December 1941.
My question about this war has always been: what is victory for Ukraine? That is what everyone pro-Ukrainian keeps talking about, and I do not get what that means. I do get what victory is for American defense contractors and that is perpetual war and to me, that seems to be where we are at. Ukraine has told you many times over, and each time you've been indisposed, it seems. The victory for Ukraine is the pre-2014 borders and Russians go home. It's not complicated at all.
Sure, the Russians fucked up in WW2 as badly as any other European country and they just had more land in which to retreat. And yeah, there was land-lease and the USA sent in an ungodly amount of supplies, but Ukraine is not as strong as Germany was either.
The way the Russians fight is to have a corrupt dumb as shit PC military leader in place, and he loses his ass and then someone competent is put in charge. The Russians then use their superior number of bodies to wear down their opposition and win. The average Russian male still carries with him a slave / serf mindset and does what he is told albeit often when drunk.
As for Putin, others noticed what I did, the swollen face and tremor. The speculation is that he has cancer and / or Parkinson's. You got a guy without all his marbles who has his hand on the nuclear button and there is talk of victory? Regardless of the war, Putin's days are numbered. It would not surprise me if he is not the one making decisions now he is so far gone.
In the near future, you have the problem of declining Ukrainian grain and sunflower exports and loss of fertilizer from Belarus and Russia which could lead to world famine. The world dodged a bullet in 2022. Europe had a warm winter and harvests were plentiful.
Then you have bank failures. How much money is going to flow into Ukraine if Western economies are brought into recession? Switzerland got hit with a banking crisis and Germany appears next. If the Republicans win in 2024, the funding for Ukraine is going to be scrutinized much more.
My question about this war has always been: what is victory for Ukraine? That is what everyone pro-Ukrainian keeps talking about, and I do not get what that means. I do get what victory is for American defense contractors and that is perpetual war and to me, that seems to be where we are at.Hard to know where to start with the debunking.
1. There is zero evidence that Russia is replacing incompetent military leaders with competent ones. The factual basis for that statement is that Russia's military position has consistently deteriorated. After the high point reached post-invasion things have moved steadily backwards for Putin's military. Changing generals has had about the same effect as rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
2. Russia in 2023 is not the USSR of the WW-II era. And a defensive battle that might be waged with 'human wave' tactics, like at Stalingrad, is a far cry from trying to wage an offensive campaign when enemy forces have modern weapons capable of shredding your cannon fodder AND decimating your logistics at the same time. Using the tactics you espouse, Russians have been trying to capture Bakhmut for about 9 months and they STILL haven't succeeded. And that's a single, solitary city.
3. Predictions about the food supply are about as reliable as the so-called "energy apocalypse" that never materialized. Most of the world supports Ukraine, to one degree or another. And I have no doubt that, as past challenges have been overcome, those in the future will be dealt with similarly.
4. Bank failures? Is that all you've got? There is absolutely nothing going on now in the financial world that can even compare to the financial crisis of 2008, or the Greek debt crisis that threatened to rip the EU apart. Those were painful, to be sure, but they were dealt with. And you know what the cherry is on the top of that cake? It's that China will be at the forefront of helping to stabilize global finances. That's simply because China needs the West about 1000% more than it needs Russia.
5. If Republicans win in 2024, Biden remains in office until January of 2025. That's almost two years from now, which is close to twice as long as the war has lasted so far. There isn't anyone who has a clue about where things will be at that point in time. So many 'solid' predictions made in Feb 2022 have already failed so miserably that it's a fool's errand to repeat that same exercise. Besides, Republicans are divided when it comes to Ukraine. And, even as a lame duck, Biden can front-load and institutionalize aid for Ukraine such that it will stretch further than most people can imagine.
Victory in Ukraine isn't rocket science. It simply requires Russia to withdraw from Ukrainian territory. Putin can't do that because it'll be such an epic failure that he'd likely suffer the same fate as Mussolini, unless he opted for Hitler's way out. So the key for Ukraine is to continue to degrade Russia's battlefield capabilities and keep regaining territory. The next few months will be hugely important. I'm not in the prediction business but we should be in for some real fireworks.
I don't know. It's not his role to predict and make false prophecies. The wheels of history are slow and maybe we shall see how this is going to end. The decision to leave Afghanistan was made in 2011 and ended in a debacle ten years later: loosing to goat herders in sandals.You might want to face the reality of McGregor's repeated predictions, which have all crashed and burned.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4140076/posts
You've obviously created a fantasy figure who bears little resemblance to the real thing.
I think it's called "copium," and maybe there's an app that can help.
I don't know. It's not his role to predict and make false prophecies. The wheels of history are slow and maybe we shall see how this is going to end. The decision to leave Afghanistan was made in 2011 and ended in a debacle ten years later: loosing to goat herders in sandals.His job as a RuZZian mouthpiece is to exactly spread falsehoods. How do you know a RuZZian is lying? His lips are moving.
And the Soviets? Lost to the Taliban when they had even lower level of tech than sandals, and now has to rely on the goat fuckers to shore up the army, what an absolute joke.
Give us a single instance where you have been right about anything JC. How many Covid boosters you at now? Now that the misinformation, disinformation board has been dissolved, are you looking for work?The vax status of anyone (you, JC, Donald Trump, MacGregor, Putin, etc.) has zero relevance to the Russia-Ukraine war. Trying to change the subject with an ad hominem against another forum member simply demonstrates that you have no substantive point to make.
https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/countries/ukraine/2023/23-03-24-Ukraine-thematic-report-POWs-ENG.pdf
A few video records circulate, seem to be original, and all horrific as this conflict.
https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/countries/ukraine/2023/23-03-24-Ukraine-35th-periodic-report-ENG.pdf
Report on human rights.
By Jeff Sachs. No need to portray him as a Jew hater, a shill, an apologist etc. This article actually touches upon some cornerstone facts, in my view, to understand the origins of this conflict.
https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/yjae8gc8hp2p293tmt4dlr4z2dpe2s
'Dying is easy' - the cartoon below:
By Jeff Sachs. No need to portray him as... a shill, an apologist etc. No need indeed.
By Jeff Sachs. No need to portray him as a Jew hater, a shill, an apologist etc. This article actually touches upon some cornerstone facts, in my view, to understand the origins of this conflict.
https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/yjae8gc8hp2p293tmt4dlr4z2dpe2s
'Dying is easy' - the cartoon below:In 1991 the USSR collapsed and various former Soviet republics declared their independence. It was a chaotic time of transition, to be sure, but the end result was a set of internationally recognized borders for Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, etc.
Those borders stood unchallenged for about 13 years until the 1st Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014. And, as a direct result of the world's tepid reaction to that initial act of naked aggression, Putin saw no reason to hold back from invading a 2nd time. Much to his surprise, the reaction was quite different.
Putin's M. O. Is to stir up shit and then use that as an excuse to impose his own solution by force. He's done it in Moldova and Georgia and he's gotten away with it until now.
It's not complicated. Putin is a murderous, imperialist thug who won't stop unless he's forcibly stopped by others. And that's what's in the process of happening now.
MacGregor is just one of many pundits who are selling their opinions on the airwaves and internet. If all you care about is finding someone who is consistently pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine, then he's a great choice, as is convicted pedophile Scott Ritter.
But, if you value ACCURATE analysis, MacGregor is an abject failure. He's made quite a few predictions and every one has been completely WRONG.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4140076/posts The New Republic huh? It's sad that the far right in America is consistently a mouthpiece for Putin's propaganda, and you'll find McGregor defended in the comments section of your link. They blame the failed predictions of a rapid end to the war on NATO intervention, but in the early going there was no time to add much support. The failures are clearly attributed to poor planning and execution. And the predictions were just what traitorous McGregor wanted to see happen regardless of what was actually happening on the ground.
Now the traitors just go on excuse mongering for Russia, the country where they need to go live, blaming NATO for everything. The usual 1000 times already refuted claims follow, that the West near the end of the Cold War promised not to expand NATO but the context at the time only related to East Germany, nowhere else, plus the Warsaw Pact was still intact. Gorbachev, who was present, has flat stated recently that the agreement Putin alleges never took place. Or that NATO pushed itself into Eastern Europe while ignoring the fact that these countries came to love freedom and asked for integration. Their agency cannot be ignored. Or that the US orchestrated a "coup" in Ukraine when in fact their brutal and cowardly leader was removed constitutionally by the duly elected legislature. But these folks can't be bothered with research beyond conspiracy theory pushing far right rags, as they've been brainwashed into thinking that everyone else is lying to them. Thus we get the parroting of Russo propaganda right from our own shores.
Anyway here's an interesting and balanced opinion piece from the WSJ. Writer has solid credentials.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-wouldnt-win-a-war-of-attrition-nato-west-weapons-ukraine-resolve-china-peace-deal-crimea-sanctions-7ca7f128
By Jeff SachsThe guy is a Jew hater, a shill, an apologist etc.
The guy is a Jew hater, a shill, an apologist etc.You're confused. When jews don't like what another jew is saying, they call him a self-hating jew. It's an important distinction as the term you used -- jew hater -- is one that can be used on any goy at any time.
The New Republic huh? It's sad that the far right in America is consistently a mouthpiece for Putin's propaganda, and you'll find McGregor defended in the comments section of your link. They blame the failed predictions of a rapid end to the war on NATO intervention, but in the early going there was no time to add much support. The failures are clearly attributed to poor planning and execution. And the predictions were just what traitorous McGregor wanted to see happen regardless of what was actually happening on the ground.
Now the traitors just go on excuse mongering for Russia, the country where they need to go live, blaming NATO for everything. The usual 1000 times already refuted claims follow, that the West near the end of the Cold War promised not to expand NATO but the context at the time only related to East Germany, nowhere else, plus the Warsaw Pact was still intact. Gorbachev, who was present, has flat stated recently that the agreement Putin alleges never took place. Or that NATO pushed itself into Eastern Europe while ignoring the fact that these countries came to love freedom and asked for integration. Their agency cannot be ignored. Or that the US orchestrated a "coup" in Ukraine when in fact their brutal and cowardly leader was removed constitutionally by the duly elected legislature. But these folks can't be bothered with research beyond conspiracy theory pushing far right rags, as they've been brainwashed into thinking that everyone else is lying to them. Thus we get the parroting of Russo propaganda right from our own shores.
Anyway here's an interesting and balanced opinion piece from the WSJ. Writer has solid credentials.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-wouldnt-win-a-war-of-attrition-nato-west-weapons-ukraine-resolve-china-peace-deal-crimea-sanctions-7ca7f128Firstly, the link I posted wasn't from the New Republic, so I have no idea what your reference to that publication has to do with what I posted.
The purpose of my posting the freerepublic link was simply to illustrate the various failed MacGregor predictions. There were a number of sources I could have used but I chose that one because it was short and to the point. And I didn't scroll down to read any of the comments because I frankly don't give a shit about uninformed opinion.
And therein lies my beef with MacGregor (also Ritter, etc.) and his acolytes. They claim to have expertise and yet, not only are they repeatedly and demonstrably wrong with their predictions, they're also transparently biased in favor of Russia.
Bias, in and of itself, isn't unexpected. But it's incumbent on the analyst to be up front about it. For example, retired generals Ben Hodges (USA) and Mick Ryan (Australia) both firmly support Ukraine but still do their best to analyze the military situation from a professional soldier's viewpoint. One can agree or disagree with their analyses, but the only standard that counts is judging what they say against what actually transpires on the battlefield.
And it's those real-world results that expose MacGregor for the fraud and shill he is.
It's clear from all the links posted to this opinion writer, or that analyst, that many in this forum have favorites they follow. That's fine, as far as that goes, but it can potentially stray into the fallacy of believing those opinions are any kind of a substitute for facts. No matter how knowledgeable (real or feigned) the pundit, or how eloquent the writing, it's still just opinion.
And, while the opinion of true experts have value, they also have their limits. The sheer number of variables, known and unknown, in a constantly changing environment means that any expert should be clear about how much they don't know. In fact, if I don't see that kind of admission, or something similar in the way of humility, I tend to discount what that author has to say. One look at all the 'expert opinion' that has already been proven wrong tells the story.
A real expert can be useful if they point out issues and factors you otherwise might not have considered. Or if they can discern facts you might not have realized were there. But it's only with 20-20 hindsight that we'll truly know who had their shit together and who was pulling opinions out of their ass.
It's a bit like a card-counter at a casino who has demonstrated expertise with one or two decks. Add many more decks, and throw in a bunch of wild cards, and their expertise fades pretty quickly. And anyone who follows that expert, and places bets thinking they have better than random chance odds, is likely to lose their shirt.
As for me, one ounce of fact is worth more than a pound of opinion. And that's what I'm looking for in whatever I read or hear re Ukraine, reality-based observations and factual nuggets.
Sure, the Russians fucked up in WW2 as badly as any other European country and they just had more land in which to retreat. And yeah, there was land-lease and the USA sent in an ungodly amount of supplies, but Ukraine is not as strong as Germany was either.
The way the Russians fight is to have a corrupt dumb as shit PC military leader in place, and he loses his ass and then someone competent is put in charge. The Russians then use their superior number of bodies to wear down their opposition and win. The average Russian male still carries with him a slave / serf mindset and does what he is told albeit often when drunk.
As for Putin, others noticed what I did, the swollen face and tremor. The speculation is that he has cancer and / or Parkinson's. You got a guy without all his marbles who has his hand on the nuclear button and there is talk of victory? Regardless of the war, Putin's days are numbered. It would not surprise me if he is not the one making decisions now he is so far gone.
In the near future, you have the problem of declining Ukrainian grain and sunflower exports and loss of fertilizer from Belarus and Russia which could lead to world famine. The world dodged a bullet in 2022. Europe had a warm winter and harvests were plentiful.
Then you have bank failures. How much money is going to flow into Ukraine if Western economies are brought into recession? Switzerland got hit with a banking crisis and Germany appears next. If the Republicans win in 2024, the funding for Ukraine is going to be scrutinized much more.
My question about this war has always been: what is victory for Ukraine? That is what everyone pro-Ukrainian keeps talking about, and I do not get what that means. I do get what victory is for American defense contractors and that is perpetual war and to me, that seems to be where we are at.Elvis, this was a more balanced post that wasn't entirely appreciated by the hardcore Ukraine crowd.
However, I don't think Russia's advantages in bodies matters a whole lot with today's state of military technology. I've heard a lot about global food production including the climate catastrophe crowd proclaiming that the world is running out of food. To paraphrase Mark Twain, "The reports of worldwide famine is greatly exaggerated. " Russians trying to force food shortages only further weakens their global standing. The point about Western financial weakness, is just that. It will be resolved with the usual financial restructuring that always begets some criticism about the winners and losers. However, the West's enormous physical economic power will support the rebuilding of the Ukraine.
By now, you're probably wondering what I appreciate about your post. For one, I appreciate you're not trying to look at the world through the eyes of a psychopathic Russian. More importantly, I appreciate this comment despite its termination with a preposition (wink):
"My question about this war has always been: what is victory for Ukraine? That is what everyone pro-Ukrainian keeps talking about, and I do not get what that means. I do get what victory is for American defense contractors and that is perpetual war and to me, that seems to be where we are at. ".
Well, we're likely going to see a Western reassessment after the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive. If it is successful, this will force the Russians to come to the table and the Ukraine's position will have more support from the global community. If we are still in a long, grinding war after the offensive, the West will likely force a resolution that doesn't go back to pre-2014 borders.
In the top right corner of the attached collage are ages of ch. killed in Donbass mainly in 2014 to 2015 by the regular Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian army used tanks, artillery and airplanes against own civilians. Hundreds of cases of such crimes are in prosecution. This is why now it's the army and not only the nationalist gangs is viewed as the legitimate target.
Unclear if you're agreeing, disagreeing, or something else.Agreeing that McGregor is an ass while I took a bit of time to, for the 100th time on this thread, correct the three or four fallacious, canned pro-Russia talking points pitched by the American far right. So why for the 100th time? Have had too much free time on my hands the last few days I suppose. Wink It's sad that their nonsensical isolationism has devolved them into becoming Putin buttboys and essentially enemies of America. But after January 6th, 2021 nothing should surprise us.
New Republic / Free Repubic, was a simple error is all. Have fun. I'll drop back in sometime in the near future.
In the top right corner of the attached collage are ages of ch. killed in Donbass mainly in 2014 to 2015 by the regular Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian army used tanks, artillery and airplanes against own civilians. Hundreds of cases of such crimes are in prosecution. This is why now it's the army and not only the nationalist gangs is viewed as the legitimate target.Putin seized Crimea and the Donbass by using a mix of Russian-backed (armed, supplied, financed) militias and regular Russian troops. The myth that Russian forces weren't directly involved is pure fiction, and has been exposed as such.
All of which means that the current war is merely an extension of the hostilities that began with Russia's 2014 invasion. No invasion = no hostilities = no deaths. Once again, the responsibility lands squarely on the murderous, imperialist thug called Putin.
vatnik drooling...There is actually no war at all, the Ukrainians are being mind controlled. They want their children stolen and women raped by Orcs like you. In fact the whole squirrel eating world is jealous of the Orc life, living without washing machines and shitting outside.
In the top right corner of the attached collage are ages of ch. killed in Donbass mainly in 2014 to 2015 by the regular Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian army used tanks, artillery and airplanes against own civilians. Hundreds of cases of such crimes are in prosecution. This is why now it's the army and not only the nationalist gangs is viewed as the legitimate target.Blaming civilian casualties on the Ukrainian Armed Forces that were and are forced to fight the war that THE RUSSIANS STARTED takes a special kind of cynic. And a special and exclusive circle of hell. Especially since we know how the separatists from "people republics" fought in that war. Like HAMAS firing from the playgrounds of apartment buildings.
Even so, let's compare then and now. Here are the casualties pre- and post Feb 2022.
2014 - 2,084.
2015 - 954.
2016 - 112.
2017 - 117.
2018 - 55.
2019 - 27.
2020 - 26.
2021 - 25.
Feb 23, 2020 to March 26 2023 - 8,401*
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293409/civilian-deaths-related-to-russia-ukraine-conflict/
*Of course, these are only verified casualties so greatly underreported. Only in Mariupol alone, the aggressor has murdered dozens of thousands of civilians.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-erasing-mariupol-499dceae43ed77f2ebfe750ea99b9ad9
Agreeing that McGregor is an ass while I took a bit of time to, for the 100th time on this thread, correct the three or four fallacious, canned pro-Russia talking points pitched by the American far right. So why for the 100th time? Have had too much free time on my hands the last few days I suppose. Wink It's sad that their nonsensical isolationism has devolved them into becoming Putin buttboys and essentially enemies of America. But after January 6th, 2021 nothing should surprise us.
New Republic / Free Repubic, was a simple error is all. Have fun. I'll drop back in sometime in the near future.First, I think a fair amount of the far-right's opposition to support for Ukraine is due to their strong anti-Biden sentiment. When you're not the party in power there's little downside to complaining loudly about every move made by the administration. Governing is much different and it's my guess that a Republican president would sing a different tune. Even Trump would have a difficult time changing course, IMO. There are several reasons for that, but one that comes immediately to mind is that extremely conservative European governments, like Poland and Italy, are some of the staunchest supporters of Ukraine. For all his "pull your own weight in NATO" rhetoric, I doubt that Trump would want to be solely responsible for derailing US-Europe relations. Again, there's little downside in using it as a campaign issue with which to bash Biden, but that's different from governing.
Second, there's actually a strong conservative case that can be made for supporting Ukraine. It starts with Reagan's characterization of the USSR as an 'Evil Empire,' and then moves forward with the argument that, after a few years post-Soviet pause, Putin has taken Russia down that same imperialist path. And Russia is arguably worse than the USSR because the Politburo no longer exists as a check on absolute power. Putin has clearly taken up the Tsarist mantle of Peter the Great and, short of a coup or death (natural or otherwise), no one in Russia can stand against him. Non-isolationist conservatives understand that, far from trying to be the 'World's Policeman,' it's in America's best interests to block Russia's imperialist ambitions.
That middle-ground conservative position doesn't get much press, admittedly, because it doesn't serve the narrative of either the liberal or conservative media. The press loves to dwell on hyperbole and often works to create it when they don't think there's enough around. Reasoned argument and true debate are rare animals these days, and nearly extinct.
"Tell me who your heroes are and I'll tell you how you'll turn out to be. " ― Warren Buffett.
https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/BANDERA%2C%20STEFAN_0018.pdf
"Tell me who your heroes are and I'll tell you how you'll turn out to be. " ― Warren Buffett.
https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/BANDERA%2C%20STEFAN_0018.pdfThen you'll turn out to be a loser, just like them. Putin, Lukashenko, Xi, take your pick. They'll be lucky if they don't end up on the wrong side of a firing squad.
"Kidnapping Ukrainian Children is awesome, and I love watching the Russian Army rape Ukrainian civilians" - Questner.Are the Chinese lessons too difficult for you?
First, I think a fair amount of the far-right's opposition to support for Ukraine is due to their strong anti-Biden sentiment. When you're not the party in power there's little downside to complaining loudly about every move made by the administration. Governing is much different and it's my guess that a Republican president would sing a different tune. Even Trump would have a difficult time changing course, IMO. There are several reasons for that, but one that comes immediately to mind is that extremely conservative European governments, like Poland and Italy, are some of the staunchest supporters of Ukraine. For all his "pull your own weight in NATO" rhetoric, I doubt that Trump would want to be solely responsible for derailing US-Europe relations. Again, there's little downside in using it as a campaign issue with which to bash Biden, but that's different from governing.
Second, there's actually a strong conservative case that can be made for supporting Ukraine. It starts with Reagan's characterization of the USSR as an 'Evil Empire,' and then moves forward with the argument that, after a few years post-Soviet pause, Putin has taken Russia down that same imperialist path. And Russia is arguably worse than the USSR because the Politburo no longer exists as a check on absolute power. Putin has clearly taken up the Tsarist mantle of Peter the Great and, short of a coup or death (natural or otherwise), no one in Russia can stand against him. Non-isolationist conservatives understand that, far from trying to be the 'World's Policeman,' it's in America's best interests to block Russia's imperialist ambitions.This is very well said. It is one of the unfortunate consequences of partisan two party USA Politics. The liberal and conservative media play into these fractures. The more measured middle-ground audience isn't going to be ginned up by a media narrative one way or another. When you see Tucker Carlson you have to realize he's part news commentary, part showman. Many times the latter takes precedence.
Foreign policy is also one of the areas with the many layers and complexity. Not every decision is a binary black and white decision. However, many people on social media try to boil these decisions down to black and white based on their political bias. Social media participation tends to be more extremely partisan than the overall electorate.
How do you deal with the Saudis and their human rights abuse? Is Saudi Arabia America's friend?
Should the USA Press India on Russian sanctions?
Why did the USA Reverse its opposition to Nordstream 2 in 2021?
I know there are lot of Trump detractors, but I think Trump's foreign policy was many times twisted into a pretzel by Democrats and liberal media. While he was not good at communicating his aims, there was more nuance to some of his dealings with foreign nations. Let's face it the Bush-Obama-Trump policy towards Putin was one of practical appeasement. As long as Putin didn't take any major aggressive actions, the USA Basically looked the other way and likely provided stern warnings about expanded actions behind the scenes.
https://youtu.be/YnEUAhbhBoU
Well, we can talk ages about the above. But somehow I expect 'the people of the Book' in the West to say: 'O, this is different. '.
https://youtu.be/YnEUAhbhBoU
Well, we can talk ages about the above. But somehow I expect 'the people of the Book' in the West to say: 'O, this is different. '.Just ask the people of Grozny, or the people in many Syrian cities. Oh wait, you can't because Russia razed them to the ground without a fucking second's hesitation over the presence of civilians.
Got any cool YouTube vids featuring dead and maimed Chechen or Syrian kids? I'm sure you could find some if you took a break from sucking Putin's dick!
Struggling a lot with my Chinese lessons, I wish I had an inside toiletSo now Chinese is compulsory for STEM students in certain Muscovy Schools, had to wipe the tears of laughter from my face reading this, almost choked on my boiled squirrel dinner.
https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/03/29/stem-students-protest-school-s-decision-to-require-chinese-study-for-graduation
Elvis 2008
03-30-23, 21:50
The vax status of anyone (you, JC, Donald Trump, MacGregor, Putin, etc.) has zero relevance to the Russia-Ukraine war.This just shows your absolutism. The same government officials who were censoring the side effects of the vaccine were censoring Russia's POV with regards to the Ukraine war. That has been definitively shown in the Twiitter Files.
To your side, anyone who says Putin was provoked in this war must by definition hate Ukraine, despise democracy, and love Putin. It never occurred to an absolutist like you that if Putin were not provoked, all these lives would not have been lost and all this money been tossed down the drain. And the very fools who provoked Putin are the ones screaming the loudest for an unending war.
An absolutist like you sees a bad guy and a good guy. What I see are a bad guy and an even worse guy.
There is zero evidence that Russia is replacing incompetent military leaders with competent ones. The factual basis for that statement is that Russia's military position has consistently deteriorated. After the high point reached post-invasion things have moved steadily backwards for Putin's military.You are completely ignoring even the possibility that the Russians could get more competent leadership. That is absolute too.
Predictions about the food supply are about as reliable as the so-called "energy apocalypse" that never materialized.You look at how much of the food, fertilizer, and energy the world consumes from Russia and Ukraine and say "Eh, no problem"? That is more absolutism.
Bank failures? Is that all you've got? There is absolutely nothing going on now in the financial world that can even compare to the financial crisis of 2008, or the Greek debt crisis that threatened to rip the EU apart. Those were painful, to be sure, but they were dealt with.That is not the question. Printing up money to buy weapons that are used to destroy things is inflationary. The Fed has raised rates at an unprecedented rate to deal with inflation as has the ECB. Banks lend out on the basis of 10:1 or so. It varies by bank and by country, but banks lend out $10 for every $1 of assets they have. Poor lending standards led to a worldwide inflation of assets in 2007. This time asset inflation occurred because of money printing with Covid. Banks have to reign in lending then, and that is when recessions and depressions occur. IMO spending money to shore up the financial system is a better use of money than continuing this war.
It's that China will be at the forefront of helping to stabilize global finances. That's simply because China needs the West about 1000% more than it needs Russia.LOL. Wrong. You need to know that most people's primary asset is their home. The way you can calculate fair value on a home is price to income ratio. A rule of thumb is your home should be twice your income. If it is much higher than that, the asset price of housing and the institutions that made the loans and own mortgages are at risk. In Houston, that ratio is what it should be, around 2. https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/in/Houston.
In China's largest city of Shanghai, that number is 49. https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/in/Shanghai.
And prices of real estate are close to that number throughout China. You seem to think Chinese banks have a rock solid foundation when their foundation is paper.
Victory in Ukraine isn't rocket science. Putin can't do that because it'll be such an epic failure that he'd likely suffer the same fate as Mussolini, unless he opted for Hitler's way out. So the key for Ukraine is to continue to degrade Russia's battlefield capabilities and keep regaining territory. The next few months will be hugely important. I'm not in the prediction business but we should be in for some real fireworks.And that perfectly describes your absolutist position. We are now talking about an area that is half the size of West Virginia, and there is no other way out than war and "victory"? Even if the cost is potential nuclear war, famine, an energy crisis, and economic collapse?
Even your base case scenario, all the potential problem areas I mentioned do not occur, your default position is that all the loss of human life is worth an area half the size of West Virginia and economically there is no way that is true. All that is left is some symbolic refrain in Ukraine saying "we stood up to Russia" which means nothing to all those who died. As General Butler would have said, at this point, this war is a racket. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Is_a_Racket.
Locamotive
03-30-23, 23:43
Its amazing how many people talk about Russia's so-called 'strengths' and are essentially making the point that Putin is somehow holding back.
When it comes to air power, for example, the fact that Russia hasn't been able to establish air superiority is simply stunning. There are various theories about this, ranging from the "just you wait" proponents (like yourself) to those who fault Russian training methods and those who credit Ukraine's air defense strategies. Those two latter points are explored in more depth in this article:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/airpower-after-ukraine/air-denial-the-dangerous-illusion-of-decisive-air-superiority/
You talk about coulda, woulda, shoulda, and make predictions from there. I simply direct my attention to what's actually happening. As just one example, why would the (alleged) 2nd best military in the world need to rely so heavily on a private mercenary army like Wagner PMC? And why would Wagner PMC need to recruit convicts? Neither of those actual events square with the "strong Russia" hypothesis.
As to when it'll be over, you can make all the armchair predictions you want but battlefield realities will always have the final word. And, at this point in time, Russia controls much less territory than it did immediately after the invasion. And theyve showed limited and flawed ability to make battlefield gains. Meanwhile, Russia's own troops are going on social media to complain about lack of weapons and training. And one recent poat featured a commander explicitly refusing to send his unprepared men on a suicidal meat-grinder mission. Again, the predominant evidence coming from the front lines are that of a disjointed, dysfunctional, and weak military. That's not to say things can't change. But that's where the situation currently stands.
So, while you content yourself with all your theories as to why there's no chance Goliath would ever be defeated by David, I'm happy to sit back and watch actual events unfold. And, to this point, things ain't looking so great for Goliath.Unfortunately this is not a fable from the bible, this is reality.
Some of you are smoking crack or are delusional. The latest today Bakhmut is about surrounded and should fall soon. Ukraine claims a resurgent push in the spring mud, yeah that will be interesting. As I said before this is over. Maybe not today or tomorrow but this is over. Even one of my girls this past week in Philippine's,we were watching US news and she knows very little about this or has very much education. She is looking at map and I could see her thinking. Hmm she says that little country is trying to beat that giant one, that is stupid. You are correct dear but many do not see what you see in 5 minutes.
'and I say to myself, What a wonderful world!
This just shows your absolutism. The same government officials who were censoring the side effects of the vaccine were censoring Russia's POV with regards to the Ukraine war. That has been definitively shown in the Twiitter Files.
To your side, anyone who says Putin was provoked in this war must by definition hate Ukraine, despise democracy, and love Putin. It never occurred to an absolutist like you that if Putin were not provoked, all these lives would not have been lost and all this money been tossed down the drain. And the very fools who provoked Putin are the ones screaming the loudest for an unending war.
An absolutist like you sees a bad guy and a good guy. What I see are a bad guy and an even worse guy.
You are completely ignoring even the possibility that the Russians could get more competent leadership. That is absolute too.
You look at how much of the food, fertilizer, and energy the world consumes from Russia and Ukraine and say "Eh, no problem"? That is more absolutism.
That is not the question. Printing up money to buy weapons that are used to destroy things is inflationary. The Fed has raised rates at an unprecedented rate to deal with inflation as has the ECB. Banks lend out on the basis of 10:1 or so. It varies by bank and by country, but banks lend out $10 for every $1 of assets they have. Poor lending standards led to a worldwide inflation of assets in 2007. This time asset inflation occurred because of money printing with Covid. Banks have to reign in lending then, and that is when recessions and depressions occur. IMO spending money to shore up the financial system is a better use of money than continuing this war.
LOL. Wrong. You need to know that most people's primary asset is their home. The way you can calculate fair value on a home is price to income ratio. A rule of thumb is your home should be twice your income. If it is much higher than that, the asset price of housing and the institutions that made the loans and own mortgages are at risk. In Houston, that ratio is what it should be, around 2. https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/in/Houston.
In China's largest city of Shanghai, that number is 49. https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/in/Shanghai.
And prices of real estate are close to that number throughout China. You seem to think Chinese banks have a rock solid foundation when their foundation is paper.
And that perfectly describes your absolutist position. We are now talking about an area that is half the size of West Virginia, and there is no other way out than war and "victory"? Even if the cost is potential nuclear war, famine, an energy crisis, and economic collapse?
Even your base case scenario, all the potential problem areas I mentioned do not occur, your default position is that all the loss of human life is worth an area half the size of West Virginia and economically there is no way that is true. All that is left is some symbolic refrain in Ukraine saying "we stood up to Russia" which means nothing to all those who died. As General Butler would have said, at this point, this war is a racket. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Is_a_Racket.Putin is absolutely evil and all your moral relativism doesn't alter that absolute fact.
He's a murderer and the blood of Boris Nemtsov, and anyone else Putin saw as a rival or annoyance, is dripping from his hands.
He's a kidnapper and war criminal, as the ICC has correctly recognized with their issuance of an arrest warrant.
He's a genocidal maniac, as his minions strive to extinguish all things Ukrainian, simply because Ukraine doesn't want to be Russian.
He's an egotistical imperialist. And, since there's zero evidence that his evil appetite will be satisfied with Ukraine (just ask Poland and the Baltics), then the rational response is to eliminate the Putin-cancer before it metastasizes.
But hey, moral relativists like you probably have 'nuanced' views on issues like whether things like pedophilia are evil and wrong, eh? After all, maybe the pedo was 'provoked' by an unscrupulous and scheming child, right?
You don't have to be a black-and-white person to understand that there are truly evil people in the world. And you don't need to be a rocket scientist to recognize Putin as one of them. And you don't need to be a vindictive person to be happy when he finally gets what he deserves.
But here's what inquiring minds want to know: Will he end up like Hitler or Mussolini? We should start a betting pool on that!
'and I say to myself, What a wonderful world!Will be when China reclaims Vladivostok and the other Eastern territories taken from them by Russia. And even more wonderful when Muscovy becomes a vassal-state that exists only to service the needs of its master, China.
Putin seized Crimea and the Donbass by using a mix of Russian-backed (armed, supplied, financed) militias and regular Russian troops. The myth that Russian forces weren't directly involved is pure fiction, and has been exposed as such.
All of which means that the current war is merely an extension of the hostilities that began with Russia's 2014 invasion. No invasion = no hostilities = no deaths. Once again, the responsibility lands squarely on the murderous, imperialist thug called Putin.The ignorance of the average American is incredible, with his brain drunk on hamburgers and social media, a people of obese warmongers. Is the end of this filthy and infamous empire near, the dollar will collapse and you all will become like stray dogs digging for food in the garbage, your democracy? Death, blood, pain. These are all things that will happen to you very soon.
'and I say to myself, What a wonderful world!Yes, all the squirrel eating people in the West are very jealous.
The ignorance of the average American is incredible, with his brain drunk on hamburgers and social media, a people of obese warmongers. Is the end of this filthy and infamous empire near, the dollar will collapse and you all will become like stray dogs digging for food in the garbage, your democracy? Death, blood, pain. These are all things that will happen to you very soon.Putin, and all his sycophants, believed their own propaganda and thereby exposed their terminal weaknesses.
Russia went from having the (false) image of strength to being the laughingstock of the world. And it won't be long before they'll be printing rubles with the image of Xi on one side, and Mao on the other.
Just as with North Korea, Putin has doomed Russia to the fate of being a China-dependent failed state.
Nice going, Vlad! Would you like some fries with your dog-meat burger?
Elvis 2008
03-31-23, 19:07
Putin is absolutely evil and all your moral relativism doesn't alter that absolute fact.
He's a murderer and the blood of Boris Nemtsov, and anyone else Putin saw as a rival or annoyance, is dripping from his hands.
He's a kidnapper and war criminal, as the ICC has correctly recognized with their issuance of an arrest warrant.
He's a genocidal maniac, as his minions strive to extinguish all things Ukrainian, simply because Ukraine doesn't want to be Russian.
He's an egotistical imperialist. And, since there's zero evidence that his evil appetite will be satisfied with Ukraine (just ask Poland and the Baltics), then the rational response is to eliminate the Putin-cancer before it metastasizes.
But hey, moral relativists like you probably have 'nuanced' views on issues like whether things like pedophilia are evil and wrong, eh? After all, maybe the pedo was 'provoked' by an unscrupulous and scheming child, right?
You don't have to be a black-and-white person to understand that there are truly evil people in the world. And you don't need to be a rocket scientist to recognize Putin as one of them. And you don't need to be a vindictive person to be happy when he finally gets what he deserves.
But here's what inquiring minds want to know: Will he end up like Hitler or Mussolini? We should start a betting pool on that!The problem with your absolutism JM is the hypocrisy. You make the Hilter comparison but fail to mention that Putin unlike Hitler has nukes capable of destroying the world.
For all the venom you spit, when it comes to the chance of nuclear war, all of a sudden Putin is the most rational person on earth and as compassionate as Mother Theresa.
War mongers prodded and provoked Putin, and now you want to tell us how evil he is. Why the hell did you provoke him in the first place then? What does it say about you guys that you poked, prodded, and provoked the bear? That you are the good guys?
And now come back and tell me I am a Putin lover because honestly that is all you have left.
Unfortunately this is not a fable from the bible, this is reality.
Some of you are smoking crack or are delusional. The latest today Bakhmut is about surrounded and should fall soon. Ukraine claims a resurgent push in the spring mud, yeah that will be interesting. As I said before this is over. Maybe not today or tomorrow but this is over. Even one of my girls this past week in Philippine's,we were watching US news and she knows very little about this or has very much education. She is looking at map and I could see her thinking. Hmm she says that little country is trying to beat that giant one, that is stupid. You are correct dear but many do not see what you see in 5 minutes.Bakhmut isn't some kind of Stalingrad. It's a small town with almost no strategic value, and yet the Russians have been fighting for it for the last 9 months at the cost of 30 K dead soldiers. During that time they've advanced 15 miles! Russia's drive for Bakhmut is purely political, meant to demonstrate to their mad tsar that they can take something.
9 months, 30,000 dead, 15 miles. Any other country, their generals would've been court-marshaled for wasting soldiers lives, but Russians historically don't give a fuck about how much meat they throw into the grinder.
And they never have. Ever.
If Bakhmut falls (which is not at all predetermined), the Russians will be left holding ruins and facing new fortifications and defensive positions in all directions. There are 100's of Bakhmuts in Ukraine, and that's just on the left bank of the Dnepro, and the Ukrainians are willing to kill and die for every one of them.
Russia is doomed.
The ignorance of the average American is incredible, with his brain drunk on hamburgers and social media, a people of obese warmongers. Is the end of this filthy and infamous empire near, the dollar will collapse and you all will become like stray dogs digging for food in the garbage, your democracy? Death, blood, pain. These are all things that will happen to you very soon.ROFL.
Kay: Did he say anything to you?
Edwards: Yeah, that the world is coming to an end.
Kay: Did he say when?So when, you say, would be the right time to short the dollar?
Per favore compagno, don't leave us hanging.
While a new Russian Foreign Policy doctrine has been revealed.
https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/fundamental_documents/1860586/
A new Chinese symbol depicting a snorting bug in the Kiev's bunker has taken shape:
The problem with your absolutism JM is the hypocrisy. You make the Hilter comparison but fail to mention that Putin unlike Hitler has nukes capable of destroying the world.
For all the venom you spit, when it comes to the chance of nuclear war, all of a sudden Putin is the most rational person on earth and as compassionate as Mother Theresa.
War mongers prodded and provoked Putin, and now you want to tell us how evil he is. Why the hell did you provoke him in the first place then? What does it say about you guys that you poked, prodded, and provoked the bear? That you are the good guys?
And now come back and tell me I am a Putin lover because honestly that is all you have left.Whether he's put down by forces inside or outside Russia is of secondary concern. Or perhaps he'll just croak on his own. But a rabid dog needs to be gotten rid of or, at the very least, isolated until the disease kills them.
With Putin, the fact that he has nukes makes getting rid of him even more important. That's because his nuclear saber-rattling won't stop with Ukraine. It'll continue with respect to Poland, the Baltics, and whatever else LilliPutin decides he wants.
But let's talk about nukes, shall we? I've seen some interesting articles detailing the kind of meticulous maintenance, and periodic replacement of critical components, needed to keep ICBMs mission-ready. With what we've seen of Russia's military, so far, it's an open question as to how much of Russia's nuclear deterrent is operational.
But let's assume it's good to go. The next question is whether Putin has a,death-wish and, even if he does, whether those around him share that death-wish. Will the soldiers and sailors and airmen blindly follow a launch order? Especially when, according to Russia's own military doctrine, nukes are a last resort to be used only if the homeland is under attack? It's hard to predict how people will react to an order to conmence the apocalypse. Hesitation, refusal, and even revolt are all possibilities.
One other thing to consider is the will of Russia's de facto master, China. Xi isn't as reckless as Putin and China will not want to deal with the fallout (literal and figurative) of Putin's foolishness. I'm guessing Xi has plenty of spies close to the Kremlin who would sound the alarm if rabid-dog Putin started foaming at the mouth too much. If that happened, I'd be surprised if China didn't have contingency plans ready to go. Belarus, Kazakhstan, and other Central Asian countries have all been cozying up to China. They all have spy networks and contacts in Russia, and none of them has a death-wish. On this particular issue, I would argue that Putin is truly isolated. None of his internal or external allies are willing to die for him. And, if they suspect he's losing his shit, they'll likely move against him.
Oh, and the 'provocation' BS is pure Russian propaganda. Ukraine never posed a threat to Russia. Ukraine simply wants to be left alone. And NATO, a defensive alliance of 30 countries, never posed a threat of offensive action against Russia. Consider that, at least prior to Russia's aggression, several NATO countries were on good terms with Russia and would NEVER have voted in favor of any NATO action against that country. Once again, Russia plays the faux victim as an all too transparent facade to excuse its own aggression.
But that's fine. Because, unlike 2014, Europe and its allies now see Putin for the existential threat he is. It's a damn shame that the dog you love has turned rabid. But that doesn't change the fact that he absolutely needs to be put down.
P.S. One correction to the above: Finland's application to join NATO has received unanimous approval, so NATO will be a 31 nation alliance. And, with that one move, the presence of NATO on Russia's borders has greatly expanded. Putin is truly the best salesman for NATO membership who has ever existed!
While a new Russian Foreign Policy doctrine has been revealed.
https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/fundamental_documents/1860586/
A new Chinese symbol depicting a snorting bug in the Kiev's bunker has taken shape:Russia no longer controls its own foreign policy. Chairman Xi is now calling the shots.
If anyone doubts this, just look at reports about Xi's recent Russia visit. The deliverables were decidedly in China's favor while Russia received mostly platitudes.
Putin has become Xi's lapdog, and everyone knows it, even in Russia. Can't wait for Vladivostok to revert to Chinese ownership and control. Won't that be exciting?
While a new Russian Foreign Policy doctrine has been revealed.
A new Chinese symbol depicting a snorting bug in the Kiev's bunker has taken shape:Own goal, that's a RuZZian sucking chinese cock, LMAO.
The new foreign policy doctrine has been well understood as taking it in the ass from China from now onwards.
"Russia is losing its future. Aleksandr Auzan, dean of Economics at Moscow State University on the loss of human capital in Russia".
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1641162497951518722?cxt=HHwWhMC-0ZemysYtAAAA
The video clip is 1 min 18 secs in length, and Auzan tries to soften his dire predictions by saying "if" the brain drain doesn't continue in the same way it's been going. Unfortunately for him, and Russia, there's no evidence Putin has any intention of changing course. Which means the brain drain is likely to continue along its death-spiral course, taking with it the hopes of Russia's future (for years, possibly generations) to come.
If you watch the clip it's clearly a warning, albeit cloaked in academic language, about the negative consequences of the current policy path. And it's clearly coming from someone in a position to have in-depth knowledge.
Unfortunately for the professor, pointing out Putin's negatives usually results in negative consequences showing up at your own door. Let's hope he has enough in the way of connections and influence to avoid any untimely accidents.
Oh, and the 'provocation' BS is pure Russian propaganda. Ukraine never posed a threat to Russia. Ukraine simply wants to be left alone. And NATO, a defensive alliance of 30 countries, never posed a threat of offensive action against Russia. Consider that, at least prior to Russia's aggression, several NATO countries were on good terms with Russia and would NEVER have voted in favor of any NATO action against that country. Once again, Russia plays the faux victim as an all too transparent facade to excuse its own aggression.No truer words have ever been spoken.
April Fool's Day. A professional holiday for the wretched jester and the spare macabre camarilla around the puppet.
Unfortunately this is not a fable from the bible, this is reality.
Some of you are smoking crack or are delusional. The latest today Bakhmut is about surrounded and should fall soon. Ukraine claims a resurgent push in the spring mud, yeah that will be interesting. As I said before this is over. Maybe not today or tomorrow but this is over. Even one of my girls this past week in Philippine's,we were watching US news and she knows very little about this or has very much education. She is looking at map and I could see her thinking. Hmm she says that little country is trying to beat that giant one, that is stupid. You are correct dear but many do not see what you see in 5 minutes.What you fail to note is that 'that little country' is backed by the USA, E.U. , and NATO. At least for now. The only way that Russia wins is if Trump, or maybe DeSantis wins in the next election and convinces congress to stop funding.
Ukraine has fought Russia to a stalemate without any tanks, very few planes, and USA Tech from the early 90's. Once the 150+ promised advanced tanks arrive, a few pilots get trained on F-16's, and the US sends some things from more recent than 30 YEARS AGO! . Stuff will move.
Russia's supposed trump card is their nuclear stockpile. Even if they were to deploy one of those, and it miraculously worked, they'd be 10x worse off and it would lead to the ware being ended by 'the adults in the room.' Putin knows that it would be his downfall as the USA Would respond with overwhelming firepower and likely boots on the ground. Russia would be out of the occupied territories in a week, and should the US want to, we'd be in Red Square within a month. Putin would be overthrown and likely killed.
You can call this hubris, and there is a good dose of that, but more so my position is based upon the absolute shit show of a performance that has been Russia so far.
Unfortunately this is not a fable from the bible, this is reality.
Some of you are smoking crack or are delusional. The latest today Bakhmut is about surrounded and should fall soon. Ukraine claims a resurgent push in the spring mud, yeah that will be interesting. As I said before this is over. Maybe not today or tomorrow but this is over. Even one of my girls this past week in Philippine's,we were watching US news and she knows very little about this or has very much education. She is looking at map and I could see her thinking. Hmm she says that little country is trying to beat that giant one, that is stupid. You are correct dear but many do not see what you see in 5 minutes.Those who are pro-Russia (or anti-Ukraine) can find an endless supply of opinions, online or otherwise, that they can use to confirm their preferred narrative. And, to be completely fair, those who are pro-Ukraine (or anti-Russia) can do exactly the same.
But facts are stubborn things and they don't give a shit about either side's narrative. Reality is what actually happens on the battlefield, and that reality has not been kind to Russia, which occupies much less territory today than they did one year ago.
Let's take Bakhmut, as just one example. It's been "about to fall" for many months. And, even if it does fall, there are fortifications nearby that Ukraine has been preparing since 2014. And, even if it does fall, what if (as some have reported) it's cost Russia a hugely disproportionate amount of eqp and personnel losses? And, even if it does fall, will the Russians be able to hold it or will it be retaken by Ukraine, as happened with Lysychansk?
So what happens over the next few months? Will it be the case that Russia has shot their offensive wad and will only be able to wage defensive warfare? Will Ukraine be able to mount an effective offensive? I don't have the answers to those questions, and I'm not in the business of making predictions. But any honest observer of the current situation can see that Russia is currently at a near-standstill. And that's true no matter what happens in Bakhmut.
Not only are their ground forces moving at a snail's pace (where they're moving at all) but they no longer seem capable of mounting the kinds of massive missile attacks they did before. In fact, there's not one militarily significant area in which Russia's efforts haven't decreased in tempo and intensity.
And, if Russia is such a giant and powerful country, why can't they replace their lost equipment (tanks, etc.) with equivalent models? Instead, they're refurbishing WW-II era tanks and trying to buy drones and other weapons from countries like Iran.
Oh, and that "giant" country has a GDP less than the state of California. So, while it's massive when it comes to geographic size, it's below average when it comes to economic heft. Meanwhile, all of the US and all of Europe are firm in their support of Ukraine. And, in Asia and the Pacific, both Japan and Australia are supporting Ukraine. Russia was hoping for China's help but, at least so far, that's been more talk than anything else.
So, go right ahead and smoke your crack while patting yourself on the back about the "accuracy" of your crystal ball. I prefer to observe the facts on the ground and let those inform my assessments. And, as I noted above, reality has not been kind to Russia. But go ahead and buy your girl another lumpia. That should make everything better.
She is looking at map and I could see her thinking. Hmm she says that little country is trying to beat that giant one, that is stupid. You are correct dear but many do not see what you see in 5 minutes.Looks like you and your Filipina ho have comparable IQs and are on about the same education level, while you are even dumb enough to brag about it. With that I'll refer you back to Chicago85's post.
What you fail to note is that 'that little country' is backed by the USA, E.U. , and NATO. At least for now. The only way that Russia wins is if Trump, or maybe DeSantis wins in the next election and convinces congress to stop funding.
Ukraine has fought Russia to a stalemate without any tanks, very few planes, and USA Tech from the early 90's. Once the 150+ promised advanced tanks arrive, a few pilots get trained on F-16's, and the US sends some things from more recent than 30 YEARS AGO! . Stuff will move.
Russia's supposed trump card is their nuclear stockpile. Even if they were to deploy one of those, and it miraculously worked, they'd be 10x worse off and it would lead to the ware being ended by 'the adults in the room.' Putin knows that it would be his downfall as the USA Would respond with overwhelming firepower and likely boots on the ground. Russia would be out of the occupied territories in a week, and should the US want to, we'd be in Red Square within a month. Putin would be overthrown and likely killed.
You can call this hubris, and there is a good dose of that, but more so my position is based upon the absolute shit show of a performance that has been Russia so far.1. No matter who wins the 2024 election, Biden doesn't leave office until Jan 20th, 2025. That's nearly 2 years from now, and Biden can pre-fund and front-load support for Ukraine in ways that will be resistant to any attempts by the next administration to reverse or cancel.
2. If either Trump or DeSantis take office, they'll immediately be confronted with the difference between governing and criticizing the policies of others. Europe is remarkably united in their support of Ukraine. And other nations like Canada, Australia, and Japan are firmly on board. A Republican administration might want to make changes but I doubt they would pull the plug or be willing to piss off so many important allies. They might try to pressure Ukraine to negotiate but Putin's war criminal status and Russia's continued atrocities make that a tough sell. And most of Europe will also take Ukraine's side on that issue.
3. If the US does throttle back on support, it wouldn't surprise me to see other countries throttle up. Poland, for example, has the ability to transfer more equipment if they choose to do so. Most NATO countries have been allowing the US to take the lead. But, if that leadership wanes, I fully expect others to step up. Russian aggression is an existential threat for the Baltics, Nordics, Poland, and others. They will adapt to any changing circumstances because supporting Ukraine is the best way to ensure their own security.
What you fail to note is that 'that little country' is backed by the USA, E.U. , and NATO. At least for now. The only way that Russia wins is if Trump, or maybe DeSantis wins in the next election and convinces congress to stop funding.
Ukraine has fought Russia to a stalemate without any tanks, very few planes, and USA Tech from the early 90's. Once the 150+ promised advanced tanks arrive, a few pilots get trained on F-16's, and the US sends some things from more recent than 30 YEARS AGO! . Stuff will move.
Russia's supposed trump card is their nuclear stockpile. Even if they were to deploy one of those, and it miraculously worked, they'd be 10x worse off and it would lead to the ware being ended by 'the adults in the room.' Putin knows that it would be his downfall as the USA Would respond with overwhelming firepower and likely boots on the ground. Russia would be out of the occupied territories in a week, and should the US want to, we'd be in Red Square within a month. Putin would be overthrown and likely killed.
You can call this hubris, and there is a good dose of that, but more so my position is based upon the absolute shit show of a performance that has been Russia so far.Putin still believes the West will blink first. The nukes are the last argument he has.
His instinct, which has worked for him in the past, is to escalate at every sight of trouble. He knows the West doesn't have much tolerance for the loss of life. He sees it as a huge weakness. That's what his nuclear blackmail means.
Of course, he's bluffing. But the problem with nuclear rhetoric is even talking about it is dangerous. Things can simply go wrong. Statements misunderstood. There are plenty of nervous people everywhere.
Gerontocrats from Soviet Politburos are probably turning nonstop in their graves.
April Fool's Day. A professional holiday for the wretched jester and the spare macabre camarilla around the puppet.Are things not working out for you? Maybe have a sip of uncle Vladimir's Polonium tea?
Putin still believes the West will blink first. The nukes are the last argument he has.
His instinct, which has worked for him in the past, is to escalate at every sight of trouble. He knows the West doesn't have much tolerance for the loss of life. He sees it as a huge weakness. That's what his nuclear blackmail means.
Of course, he's bluffing. But the problem with nuclear rhetoric is even talking about it is dangerous. Things can simply go wrong. Statements misunderstood. There are plenty of nervous people everywhere.
Gerontocrats from Soviet Politburos are probably turning nonstop in their graves.When the US and USSR were the only superpowers, China didn't even enter into the discussion. And even after China became an economic power you didn't hear or read much about them in the context of nuclear weapons equilibrium. But now, with Russia so dependent on staying in China's good graces, it's become clear that China is a limiting force (on Russia) in a way that's never existed before.
China hates chaos and loves stability, while Putin has demonstrated that he's the ultimate merchant of chaos. China seeks domination, don't get me wrong, but they're happy to move slowly, deliberately, and with minimal risk. They'd love to assimilate Taiwan the way they did Hong Kong. And they'd love to be economically dominant in Asia (and beyond) such that they become the predominant world power without ever needing to fire a shot or drop a bomb.
China is happy to allow Russia to serve as a distraction and thorn in the side of NATO and the West. But they're not happy with the potential for instability as a result of Putin's saber-rattling. After Russia declared an intent to relocate some nuclear assets to Belarus, China made a public statement widely seen as critical of that decision. And I'm pretty sure more frank criticisms were expressed through private channels.
All of this means that Putin's bluster is more transparently a bluff, and empty threat, than would otherwise be the case. Russia can't afford to piss off or alienate their new master, and China has multiple screws they can tighten to keep Russia on a leash. Rhetoric might be tolerated but not anything that significantly turns up the nuclear thermostat.
If anyone doubts this line of reasoning, consider what would happen if Russia actually used a nuke (tactical or otherwise) or realistically appeared to be on the brink of doing so. One probable outcome would be the collapse of any non-proliferation policies, with countries like Japan and South Korea racing to arm themselves. That's a scenario China desperately wants to avoid. There are other scenarios of instability one can think of, but the main point remains the same. China will simply not allow Russia to push the world down that path. And it's important to remember that, despite all the BFF talk, there's no love lost between Russia and China. Which means that China won't be slow about yanking on the leash to bring their dog to heel. And, with the way the Chinese like to think and work, it's my guess they already have a contingency plan in place that involves replacing Putin.
Beijing4987
04-02-23, 23:24
BTW. China didn't assimilate Hong Kong, The UK captured in in a war (over "trading rights") and signed a document for its return after a period of 100 years. In the second, "Arrow War, the French and British were victorious and gained commercial privileges and "legal" and territorial concessions in China ". Some believe that nuclear weapons belonging to the Americans are stationed in South Korea and Japan.
Looks like you and your Filipina ho have comparable IQs and are on about the same education level, while you are even dumb enough to brag about it. With that I'll refer you back to Chicago85's post.Even if we pretend to think it's just a number game (it isn't), the geographical map of Russia means exactly dick. Russia has 143 million people vs. Ukraine's 40 millions. Not terrible odds, considering that Russia, as an aggressor, is bound to spend (waste) more cannon fodder than Ukrainians. Around Bakhmut the ratio is 7:1. That's even before taking into account that the whole world is behind Ukraine. And before we consider how many able-bodied Russian men have left the country already.
When the US and USSR were the only superpowers, China didn't even enter into the discussion. And even after China became an economic power you didn't hear or read much about them in the context of nuclear weapons equilibrium. But now, with Russia so dependent on staying in China's good graces, it's become clear that China is a limiting force (on Russia) in a way that's never existed before.I agree that Putin's unlikely to deliberately start a nuclear war, but there is a lot of internal pressure on him along with his own inclinations to escalate.
1. There is a thriving nationalist movement in Russia, which is even more belligerent than Putin himself. Girkin, for example, used to urge caution about nuclear rhetoric. Well, he's not anymore.
2. Putin's propagandists are consistently pushing tactical nuclear strikes against Kyiv.
3. And finally, Putin knows his days in power (and likely his own life) are over when the war is over.
So if he keeps ratcheting up, then at some point in the future things just might go wrong. Fateful mistakes are far from impossible, especially at the times of heightened tensions, and we've been there before.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls
BTW. China didn't assimilate Hong Kong, The UK captured in in a war (over "trading rights") and signed a document for its return after a period of 100 years. In the second, "Arrow War, the French and British were victorious and gained commercial privileges and "legal" and territorial concessions in China ". Some believe that nuclear weapons belonging to the Americans are stationed in South Korea and Japan.Hence the use of "assimilated" to describe the situation. The territorial issue wasn't my primary point. Rather it was that China's "One country, two systems" commitment was a false promise. It's a myth promulgated by China, and China supporters, nothing more. The truth is that, with respect to HK, the CCP gets whatever it wants, whenever it wants.
And the Chinese are masters at using various ingenious ways to make sure everything remains under their thumb, no matter what facade they try to display for the outside world. One obvious tactic is to simply control who is allowed to hold office:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/hong-kong-chief-executive-election-1.6443779
Another is to crack down on peaceful protests using the "security" rationale.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63778871
Isn't it interesting that the "Blank Paper" protest movement originated in Hong Kong (in 2020) before being adopted in Mainland China?
And those are just a couple of examples. So, considering the actual facts of the situation, I would argue that assimilated is a perfectly justifiable word to use. If you think otherwise, why don't you take a trip to Hong Kong, stand on a busy sidewalk, and shout loudly that Comrade Xi looks like Winnie the Pooh? After you're released from jail (or deported if they feel like being merciful) you can come back to the forum to let us know how that worked out for you.
P.S. My primary point, which you seem to have missed, was to draw a distinction between the way China likes to do things vs the way Russia does things. And, despite your issue with the use of a single word, that point remains valid.
I agree that Putin's unlikely to deliberately start a nuclear war, but there is a lot of internal pressure on him along with his own inclinations to escalate.
1. There is a thriving nationalist movement in Russia, which is even more belligerent than Putin himself. Girkin, for example, used to urge caution about nuclear rhetoric. Well, he's not anymore.
2. Putin's propagandists are consistently pushing tactical nuclear strikes against Kyiv.
3. And finally, Putin knows his days in power (and likely his own life) are over when the war is over.
So if he keeps ratcheting up, then at some point in the future things just might go wrong. Fateful mistakes are far from impossible, especially at the times of heightened tensions, and we've been there before.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_callsI haven't researched the subject, so I'm not sure how much is known about the nuts and bolts of how the Russian nuclear arsenal is maintained and how different kinds of strikes (tactical vs strategic) would be ordered and carried out. In other words, how many people are in the actual chain of command and would need to affirmatively move the order forward? However long those chains are, any single link could cause it to fail.
With all due respect to whoever put that Wikipedia article together, some of the reported "incidents" are a bit of a stretch. And most are over 40 years old, during the height of the Cold War. That's not to say there's no need for concern, but just noting that things like communications and radar mishaps were dealt with at the time. And I would hope that each incident would have led to an investigation of what happened and necessary adjustments to procedures. At least that's what generally happens with the US military. I have no idea how the USSR or Russia handles things.
Again, I'm not arguing that there's no cause for concern. But the root cause of the problem is Putin himself. If you take Ukraine out of the equation then you can simply insert Moldova, Georgia, Poland, etc. And, because we have a track record of Putin's behavior, I would argue that the real danger would be for the West to display any kind of weakness. What we clearly understand now is that the concern will be there for as long as the murderous imperialist thug remains in power.
Also, getting back to my earlier point, it's a huge unknown as to what China will do if a true crisis were to present itself. Aside from a genuine unforeseeable accident, it's hard to believe that China would not have some kind of advance warning. And, if you accept the premise that China absolutely does NOT want the instability that would result from a nuclear incident, then it's logical to assume they have plans in place to prevent that from happening.
Regarding your other points, I would argue that propaganda is just fodder for the masses and no serious power player in Russia believes it. And, if Putin realizes his days are numbered, so will everyone around him. Even if he wants to go out in a blaze of glory, I have my doubts that others in the power structure will share that sentiment. What those players will want is to position themselves to benefit from any coming regime changes.
About the nationalists, it's unclear how deep and wide their power base is. Prighozin has already used up political capital fighting against the Defense Ministry, and Girkin is a gadfly who (for the moment) is being tolerated. Putin has spent decades ensuring that no true rivals can exist. If he dies, or is removed, whoever assumes leadership will need to make consolidation of power their top priority. That makes it more likely (IMO) that they'd recall the military from Ukraine so it would be available to subdue any rivals and any domestic unrest. That doesn't mean a nationalist won't still be a long-term problem, but it could have the paradoxical effect of reducing the near-term threat. A smart nationalist would figure out a way of blaming Putin for the failed campaign. Or, if that isn't feasible, find other scapegoats.
The bottom-line is that there's really no policy path that will make the problem go away. Ukraine or no Ukraine, Putin has shown that he will rattle the nuclear saber to try to get concessions from the West. And if nationalists succeed him, it'll be the same rhetoric from a different set of lips. Only a fundamental change of mindset in Russia will truly solve things. Absent that, a firm resolve that shows both Russia and China that they will experience clear and profound consequences is the best insurance. MAD worked during the Cold War and, despite what many thought, it appears it's still needed. At least that's how I see it. If anyone has a better solution, I'm all ears.
3. And finally, Putin knows his days in power (and likely his own life) are over when the war is over.If he can come up with a convincing way to declare victory after certain outcomes he has a real chance of surviving in power. In spite of all the embarrassments, he's still there, right? In lessor scenarios put out to pasture, like previous failed Russian leaders is also a possibility.
If he can come up with a convincing way to declare victory after certain outcomes he has a real chance of surviving in power. In spite of all the embarrassments, he's still there, right? In lessor scenarios put out to pasture, like previous failed Russian leaders is also a possibility.It's gone too far, he might be able to hang on to Crimea barely, and UA will likely destroy the Kerch bridge, and not allow it to be rebuilt. With that result, he's still fucked. There's no way he can keep the UA land, and then what can he show to the RuZZians? Sweet Fuck All.
Putin. All he had to do when his puppet Victor Yunokovich was president was to get rid of 5-6 oligarchs, his main enemies, didn't do it, the oligarchs got help from the west, revolution, and replaced his puppet with their own.
Putin got a 2nd chance when his buddy Trump was in power and again he failed.
How can a top spy fail so miserably?
I know some people think highly of Putin but the fact is he's dumb, and now he's a war criminal.
Locamotive
04-03-23, 18:55
Those who are pro-Russia (or anti-Ukraine) can find an endless supply of opinions, online or otherwise, that they can use to confirm their preferred narrative. And, to be completely fair, those who are pro-Ukraine (or anti-Russia) can do exactly the same.
But facts are stubborn things and they don't give a shit about either side's narrative. Reality is what actually happens on the battlefield, and that reality has not been kind to Russia, which occupies much less territory today than they did one year ago.
Let's take Bakhmut, as just one example. It's been "about to fall" for many months. And, even if it does fall, there are fortifications nearby that Ukraine has been preparing since 2014. And, even if it does fall, what if (as some have reported) it's cost Russia a hugely disproportionate amount of eqp and personnel losses? And, even if it does fall, will the Russians be able to hold it or will it be retaken by Ukraine, as happened with Lysychansk?
So what happens over the next few months? Will it be the case that Russia has shot their offensive wad and will only be able to wage defensive warfare? Will Ukraine be able to mount an effective offensive? I don't have the answers to those questions, and I'm not in the business of making predictions. But any honest observer of the current situation can see that Russia is currently at a near-standstill. And that's true no matter what happens in Bakhmut.
Not only are their ground forces moving at a snail's pace (where they're moving at all) but they no longer seem capable of mounting the kinds of massive missile attacks they did before. In fact, there's not one militarily significant area in which Russia's efforts haven't decreased in tempo and intensity.
And, if Russia is such a giant and powerful country, why can't they replace their lost equipment (tanks, etc.) with equivalent models? Instead, they're refurbishing WW-II era tanks and trying to buy drones and other weapons from countries like Iran.
Oh, and that "giant" country has a GDP less than the state of California. So, while it's massive when it comes to geographic size, it's below average when it comes to economic heft. Meanwhile, all of the US and all of Europe are firm in their support of Ukraine. And, in Asia and the Pacific, both Japan and Australia are supporting Ukraine. Russia was hoping for China's help but, at least so far, that's been more talk than anything else.
So, go right ahead and smoke your crack while patting yourself on the back about the "accuracy" of your crystal ball. I prefer to observe the facts on the ground and let those inform my assessments. And, as I noted above, reality has not been kind to Russia. But go ahead and buy your girl another lumpia. That should make everything better.Uh. Nobody is pro Russia here, I don't think, certainly not me. If the Dallas Cowboys play a High school team I know who is going to win. This is not pro or con just a reality. From your post you've either been watching way too much western media or listening to that idiot Millie our joint chief of staff. Yes their narrative is clear as they will keep pumping weapons and money in there until no Ukraine soldiers are left. This is all promoted by the military industrial complex just like every other stupid war we've been involved with. And when its over, will we will walk away just like we always do. I feel sorry for the Ukraine people, and do not approve of Russia's actions. But Ukraine winning, they have no chance, never did.
It's gone too far, he might be able to hang on to Crimea barely, and UA will likely destroy the Kerch bridge, and not allow it to be rebuilt. With that result, he's still fucked. There's no way he can keep the UA land, and then what can he show to the RuZZians? Sweet Fuck All.I hope you are right.
Uh. Nobody is pro Russia here, I don't think, certainly not me. If the Dallas Cowboys play a High school team I know who is going to win. This is not pro or con just a reality. From your post you've either been watching way too much western media or listening to that idiot Millie our joint chief of staff. Yes their narrative is clear as they will keep pumping weapons and money in there until no Ukraine soldiers are left. This is all promoted by the military industrial complex just like every other stupid war we've been involved with. And when its over, will we will walk away just like we always do. I feel sorry for the Ukraine people, and do not approve of Russia's actions. But Ukraine winning, they have no chance, never did.And, as I specifically pointed out, that kind of flawed reasoning isn't limited to any one viewpoint.
In stark contrast, the correct approach is to use observable facts to inform your own opinions. BTW, your use of a facile (flawed) analogy is another quintessential example of sloppy thinking. In your mind the Russian military = the Dallas Cowboys and Ukraine's forces = a High School team. You slap a "reality" label on this when it's nothing more that a construct that lives in your own brain. And, because you're locked into this view, you conveniently ignore or downplay any facts that contradict it. Consider, for example, that your "Dallas Cowboys" have been pushed steadily backward for over a year. Wow, how is it that the high school team is consistently winning at the line of scrimmage? And how many fumbles and other critical mistakes has the "pro" team made?
While I doubt you'll read it, here's an interesting look at some other inconvenient facts. Ukraine was never weaker or more vulnerable than immediately after the invasion. And yet they were able to repel Russian forces from the outskirts of Kyiv. Here's one account of how that happened, which I'm happy to post for any forum member who might be interested:
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/04/02/battle-of-kyiv-tactics-and-tricks-that-saved-ukrainian-capital/
A quick scan will reveal how pathetically poor the Orc army performed (and that was at their high point). They've gone steadily downhill since. Meanwhile, support for Ukraine has ramped up and I see no signs of it being scaled back.
I get my information from many sources, and I rigorously check to see whether they're reporting actual facts or simply regurgitating narrative. Your posts sound just like the nonsense that comes out of Russia Today and other Kremlin propaganda outlets.
Oh yes, and if I had a dollar for every bogus prediction made about this war, I'd have a shitload of dollars. I'll add your predictions to the stack. I'm happy to observe the facts on the ground and see which way they're pointing. And, as I've said before, reality hasn't been kind to Russia.
And the restaurant where he got blasted is reportedly owned by (wait for it) Prigozhin of PMC Wagner fame. While giving a speech in front of a Z-group, Tatarsky was handed a statue (a bust of his likeness) and that bust turned into a big-bada-boom! I guess his 500 K channel followers will now have to be satisfied with watching archived videos, unless he manages to find a way to post fresh content from hell.
Russia is blaming Ukraine AND Navalny (at the same time). IMO, the likelier scenario is either infighting (or jockeying for position) within the ultra-nationalist faction OR the Kremlin (FSB or GRU) is sending a message to other milblogger critics (like Girkin).
There are also reports that Putin has given him a posthumous award. He's the first to receive the "Order of the Defunct Narcissist" medal, but he probably won't be the last.
You can see relevant videos and posts at this link (click 'latest' to sort by most recent):
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22Tatarsky%22&src=typed_query&f=top
And they've arrested a young woman who is reportedly an anti-war activist. That seems far too convenient and I highly doubt she possesses the expertise to craft an explosive device that's hidden inside a statue. In some of the videos, Tatarsky is seen opening the box, handling the bust, and putting it down. I'm not an explosives expert, but it seems to me that the device was probably remotely detonated. That's some expert-level shit right there, IMO.
What you fail to note is that 'that little country' is backed by the USA, E.U. , and NATO. At least for now. The only way that Russia wins is if Trump, or maybe DeSantis wins in the next election and convinces congress to stop funding.
Ukraine has fought Russia to a stalemate without any tanks, very few planes, and USA Tech from the early 90's. Once the 150+ promised advanced tanks arrive, a few pilots get trained on F-16's, and the US sends some things from more recent than 30 YEARS AGO! . Stuff will move.
Russia's supposed trump card is their nuclear stockpile. Even if they were to deploy one of those, and it miraculously worked, they'd be 10x worse off and it would lead to the ware being ended by 'the adults in the room.' Putin knows that it would be his downfall as the USA Would respond with overwhelming firepower and likely boots on the ground. Russia would be out of the occupied territories in a week, and should the US want to, we'd be in Red Square within a month. Putin would be overthrown and likely killed.
You can call this hubris, and there is a good dose of that, but more so my position is based upon the absolute shit show of a performance that has been Russia so far.This type of ignorant babble always amazed me. Incomprehensible pile of nonsense.
Putin. All he had to do when his puppet Victor Yunokovich was president was to get rid of 5-6 oligarchs, his main enemies, didn't do it, the oligarchs got help from the west, revolution, and replaced his puppet with their own.
Putin got a 2nd chance when his buddy Trump was in power and again he failed.
How can a top spy fail so miserably?
I know some people think highly of Putin but the fact is he's dumb, and now he's a war criminal.Have you got brain freeze, too much chocolate ice cream? Yanukovich, although corrupt, was a duly elected President of Ukraine. What do you mean by saying 'get rid of'? Do you get you can't seat on both chairs. Until the coup Russia tried her best to live peacefully with Ukraine.
'Hey you, stop scaring the ostrich!
I'm not asking anyone have you ever been to Crimea or Donbass, or have ever tried to swim across the river Dnepr, but to know where the front line at the moment is basic.
This type of ignorant babble always amazed me. Incomprehensible pile of nonsense.Too bad the best you can do is post infantile videos and images. It's no surprise that you'd find anything beyond two syllables to be incomprehensible.
'Hey you, stop scaring the ostrich!
I'm not asking anyone have you ever been to Crimea or Donbass, or have ever tried to swim across the river Dnepr, but to know where the front line at the moment is basic.Nice going! It's kind of like Nero fiddling while Rome burned. Except that it's Questner diddling (himself) while the Russian imvaders burn.
Have you got brain freeze, too much chocolate ice cream? Yanukovich, although corrupt, was a duly elected President of Ukraine. What do you mean by saying 'get rid of'? Do you get you can't seat on both chairs. Until the coup Russia tried her best to live peacefully with Ukraine.Whatever internal issues were happening WITHIN Ukraine, Russia had NO fucking right to cross the borders. Russia had plenty of infuence in post-Soviet Ukraine, both directly and through proxies. It's clear from the way things unfolded that Ukraine wants to have a future in Europe and NOT in Russia's sphere of influence. If that wasn't the case, then Russia would have been welcomed in the way that Putin delusionally thought would happen. The fact that Ukraine has resisted tooth-and-nail, INCLUDING in predominantly Russian-speaking areas, is proof positive that Ukrainians want Putin and his Orcs to fuck off to hell.
Reiner Otto
04-04-23, 09:05
'
I'm not asking anyone have you ever been to Crimea or Donbass ... What do you want to say here?
BTW, I crossed the Dnjepr bridge at Cherson many times; I know Crimea very well, even attending a few times "Z" over there.
And I know Putler from my years in Peter.
However, I condemn Putler for his aggression onto their brothers. Although Russians always had some type of "Herrenmenschen" attitude.
to know where the front line at the moment is basic.To not attack your brothers, rape their women, steal their children and lie constantly is also basic, much more so.
Beijing4987
04-04-23, 22:23
Henry the K and Tricky Dick's "Make the Economy Scream" (in Chile). Would not have worked for Putler in "influencing" Ukraine. CIA sponsored coup ousting Victor Y ?
Possible. So what now, 400 pound incels living in mom's basement? Does Finland in NATO raise your hackles? Putler could care less, he says. Too bad Fat Nixon is being neutered. Could have ended the Special Military Operation in a day.
Henry the K and Tricky Dick's "Make the Economy Scream" (in Chile). Would not have worked for Putler in "influencing" Ukraine. CIA sponsored coup ousting Victor Y ?
Possible. So what now, 400 pound incels living in mom's basement? Does Finland in NATO raise your hackles? Putler could care less, he says. Too bad Fat Nixon is being neutered. Could have ended the Special Military Operation in a day.Here's just one of many articles debunking the tired "CIA coup" cliche:
https://bitterwinter.org/myth-of-the-american-coups-in-ukraine-2-2014/
Article highlights:
1. Little Victor already had a sketchy political history in Ukraine.
"Viktor Yanukovych, the politician whose presidential election was annulled by the Supreme Court for electoral fraud in 2004".
2. Little Victor won the 2010 election with less than 50% of the vote. And he ran on an electoral platform that was specifically in favor of integration with the EU.
"Yanukovych ran again for President in 2010, with a platform that included Ukraine's request to become part of the European Union. He won the election by obtaining in the second turn 48.95% of the vote against 45.47% of his opponent Julia Tymosenko".
3. After his election, not only did Little Victor arrest his political rival (Tymosenko) but he completely reneged on his commitment to EU integration.
"On November 21,2013, Yanukovych abruptly announced that he would not sign the Association Agreement with the European Union that had been agreed upon, and would rather enter into a treaty of economic cooperation with Russia. This was a complete about-face with respect to the program on which he had been elected".
4. Little Victor cemented his reputation as Putin's lackey when he adopted the Russian whitewashed view of the Stalin-orchestrated Holodomor famine.
"When Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper during his visit to Ukraine went to pay his respects to the victims of the Holodomor, many of whom were ancestors of Canadian Ukrainians, at the Kiev memorial of the genocide, Yanukovych declined to participate and told Harper there had been no genocide. As some scholars have noted, many non-Ukrainians failed to understand the enormity of Yanukovych's claim. It was as if a president of Israel would publicly deny the Holocaust".
5. If 1-4 (above) are thought of as the kindling, this next highlight is what actually lit the fire.
"What started in Maidan Square as a small and peaceful protest mostly by university students escalated to violence and to a revolution, which was called Euromaidan or the Revolution of Dignity. What changed the course of the events was the brutal repression of the students by police on November 29. Dozens of students were badly beaten. Many who went to Maidan Square after November 29 would probably not have protested for the European Union, but took to the streets to denounce police brutality, which they regarded as evidence of the authoritarian drift of the Yanukovych government".
One final point made in the article is that the estimates of protesters in Kyiv range from 400,000 to 800,000. So, in order to believe in the "CIA" myth, you have to deny each of those protesters their individual agency. Each one of those people made an individual decision to actively join the protests. If you think the CIA can mind-control hundreds of thousands of people, then I have a bridge across the Kerch Strait to sell you.
Or, one can take the "Occam's Razor" approach and consider the plain facts of the matter. Little Victor did not have a large base of support and, after reneging on a key campaign promise and adopting a Holodomor-denial position, flushed the remainder of his support down the toilet. Then, thinking he could stay in power using brutal and repressive tactics, he lit the match that sent him crashing, burning, and fleeing to Russia.
Elvis 2008
04-05-23, 00:02
Uh. Nobody is pro Russia here, I don't think, certainly not me. If the Dallas Cowboys play a High school team I know who is going to win. This is not pro or con just a reality. From your post you've either been watching way too much western media or listening to that idiot Millie our joint chief of staff. Yes their narrative is clear as they will keep pumping weapons and money in there until no Ukraine soldiers are left. This is all promoted by the military industrial complex just like every other stupid war we've been involved with. And when its over, will we will walk away just like we always do. I feel sorry for the Ukraine people, and do not approve of Russia's actions. But Ukraine winning, they have no chance, never did.Good post. JM's whole concept that we did not provoke Russia is crazy. There are so many videos that show otherwise but the two best ones I have seen are here:
https://www.cc.com/video/y1wxc3/the-colbert-report-crisis-in-ukraine
https://rumble.com/v1m0df8-the-colbert-report-crisis-in-ukraine-gideon-rose-02242014.html
The guest on the Colbert report, back when Steven Colbert was funny, even said we wanted to prevent Russia from attacking Ukraine. So fear of provoking a Russian invasion was present back in 2014 and the soothing words to keep back an invasion apparently were no longer spoken. Biden said to Putin he would not rule out Ukraine joining NATO, and Russia invaded shortly after that.
Matt Taibbi, one of the few journalists I trust, has said that there are now two parties in Washington. They are not Republican and Democrat but pro-war and anti-war. Trump and Bernie Sanders are anti-war and HRC and Biden are in the pro-war party. If you are in the antiwar party, you can expect what Trump got today and what Bernie Sanders got in the primaries.
The setup is the same. Build up a guy or guys to be the epitome of evil. And then give the military industrial complex trillions to knock him out of power and watch as things get even worse in said country. We have seen this movie before with Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, and the Taliban. And anyone who objects to that money being spent on this nonsense abroad is told, "What is a matter with you, you love Hussein, Gaddafi, the Taliban, or Putin?
And you are right. The Ukrainian people will suffer the same fate as those in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan while the military industrial complex lines its pockets. If you oppose them, well, you end up dead like JFK or charged like Trump. Biden was building up for war on literally the first day he was in office.
Henry the K and Tricky Dick's "Make the Economy Scream" (in Chile). Would not have worked for Putler in "influencing" Ukraine. CIA sponsored coup ousting Victor Y ?
Possible. So what now, 400 pound incels living in mom's basement? Does Finland in NATO raise your hackles? Putler could care less, he says. Too bad Fat Nixon is being neutered. Could have ended the Special Military Operation in a day.Was this written by ChatGPT the AI chatbot? Just curious.
What do you want to say here?
BTW, I crossed the Dnjepr bridge at Cherson many times; I know Crimea very well, even attending a few times "Z" over there.
And I know Putler from my years in Peter.
However, I condemn Putler for his aggression onto their brothers. Although Russians always had some type of "Herrenmenschen" attitude.Kudos to you. My post was addressed to ISG's prolific arm chair generals. As for the President, this horrible disaster reflects visibly upon him also. What choice in realpolitik has he got? No one ever wanted even a scratch on a hand.
Quote of the day, 'To paraphrase former Secretary of Defense Bob Gates, any American president or politician who is willing to risk a high-end conventional land war with Russia should have his head examined, or at a minimum, deserves serious psychiatric care. The same must be said of anyone in Washington who wants to engage in nuclear brinksmanship with Moscow. '.
Here's just one of many articles debunking the tired "CIA coup" cliche:
https://bitterwinter.org/myth-of-the-american-coups-in-ukraine-2-2014/
Article highlights:
1. Little Victor already had a sketchy political history in Ukraine.
"Viktor Yanukovych, the politician whose presidential election was annulled by the Supreme Court for electoral fraud in 2004".
2. Little Victor won the 2010 election with less than 50% of the vote. And he ran on an electoral platform that was specifically in favor of integration with the EU.
"Yanukovych ran again for President in 2010, with a platform that included Ukraine's request to become part of the European Union. He won the election by obtaining in the second turn 48.95% of the vote against 45.47% of his opponent Julia Tymosenko".
3. After his election, not only did Little Victor arrest his political rival (Tymosenko) but he completely reneged on his commitment to EU integration.
"On November 21,2013, Yanukovych abruptly announced that he would not sign the Association Agreement with the European Union that had been agreed upon, and would rather enter into a treaty of economic cooperation with Russia. This was a complete about-face with respect to the program on which he had been elected".
4. Little Victor cemented his reputation as Putin's lackey when he adopted the Russian whitewashed view of the Stalin-orchestrated Holodomor famine.
"When Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper during his visit to Ukraine went to pay his respects to the victims of the Holodomor, many of whom were ancestors of Canadian Ukrainians, at the Kiev memorial of the genocide, Yanukovych declined to participate and told Harper there had been no genocide. As some scholars have noted, many non-Ukrainians failed to understand the enormity of Yanukovych's claim. It was as if a president of Israel would publicly deny the Holocaust".
5. If 1-4 (above) are thought of as the kindling, this next highlight is what actually lit the fire.
"What started in Maidan Square as a small and peaceful protest mostly by university students escalated to violence and to a revolution, which was called Euromaidan or the Revolution of Dignity. What changed the course of the events was the brutal repression of the students by police on November 29. Dozens of students were badly beaten. Many who went to Maidan Square after November 29 would probably not have protested for the European Union, but took to the streets to denounce police brutality, which they regarded as evidence of the authoritarian drift of the Yanukovych government".
One final point made in the article is that the estimates of protesters in Kyiv range from 400,000 to 800,000. So, in order to believe in the "CIA" myth, you have to deny each of those protesters their individual agency. Each one of those people made an individual decision to actively join the protests. If you think the CIA can mind-control hundreds of thousands of people, then I have a bridge across the Kerch Strait to sell you.
Or, one can take the "Occam's Razor" approach and consider the plain facts of the matter. Little Victor did not have a large base of support and, after reneging on a key campaign promise and adopting a Holodomor-denial position, flushed the remainder of his support down the toilet. Then, thinking he could stay in power using brutal and repressive tactics, he lit the match that sent him crashing, burning, and fleeing to Russia.Solid and well summarized by yourself. Only problem is that Tucker Carlson fans also pay for pussy. In fact good family values conservatives likely buy ass disproportionately, thus we are compelled to go in circles here. Wink.
Whatever internal issues were happening WITHIN Ukraine, Russia had NO fucking right to cross the borders. Russia had plenty of infuence in post-Soviet Ukraine, both directly and through proxies. It's clear from the way things unfolded that Ukraine wants to have a future in Europe and NOT in Russia's sphere of influence. If that wasn't the case, then Russia would have been welcomed in the way that Putin delusionally thought would happen. The fact that Ukraine has resisted tooth-and-nail, INCLUDING in predominantly Russian-speaking areas, is proof positive that Ukrainians want Putin and his Orcs to fuck off to hell.And that precisely was the "provocation" to Little Vlad, freedom loving Ukrainians that wanted to go another way, just as many former Soviet bloc countries did. So rather than accept that the Russians commit mass murder, rape, and steal children. We see the same committed on the micro scale all the time by jilted lovers with violent responses to rejection. And Little Vlad's demands to NATO were all a ruse to prop up a justification as he already knew he'd be declined. NATO membership is open to all who qualify according to the charter. Any committment to exclude Ukraine perpetually is out of bounds and certainly beyond the authority of the US. Thus Americans who blame the US are siding with Russia and thus are traitors to their own country.
But fuck, I covered all this a year ago and at least twenty times since then so I'm taking a very long vacation from the discussion. And fact is I'm a South America guy so likely will never make it to Kyiv, as far as the other thread goes. Though I'll never say never. Wink.
Quote of the day, 'To paraphrase former Secretary of Defense Bob Gates, any American president or politician who is willing to risk a high-end conventional land war with Russia should have his head examined, or at a minimum, deserves serious psychiatric care. The same must be said of anyone in Washington who wants to engage in nuclear brinksmanship with Moscow. '.Typical idiot RuZZian living in the past. Let me explain it for you so that even an Orc can understand. When Bob Gates said that, that was before the RuZZian army was revealed to be a Paper Tiger. Now that everyone knows that Muscovy has a Potemkin army, the whole world is laughing, and people are not afraid. Look at the CSTO, members are getting ready to arrest Putin. Good job!
Beijing4987
04-05-23, 15:46
I'm Gort. I can destroy your planet.
Good post. JM's whole concept that we did not provoke Russia is crazy. There are so many videos that show otherwise but the two best ones I have seen are here:
https://www.cc.com/video/y1wxc3/the-colbert-report-crisis-in-ukraine
https://rumble.com/v1m0df8-the-colbert-report-crisis-in-ukraine-gideon-rose-02242014.html
The guest on the Colbert report, back when Steven Colbert was funny, even said we wanted to prevent Russia from attacking Ukraine. So fear of provoking a Russian invasion was present back in 2014 and the soothing words to keep back an invasion apparently were no longer spoken. Biden said to Putin he would not rule out Ukraine joining NATO, and Russia invaded shortly after that.
Matt Taibbi, one of the few journalists I trust, has said that there are now two parties in Washington. They are not Republican and Democrat but pro-war and anti-war. Trump and Bernie Sanders are anti-war and HRC and Biden are in the pro-war party. If you are in the antiwar party, you can expect what Trump got today and what Bernie Sanders got in the primaries.
The setup is the same. Build up a guy or guys to be the epitome of evil. And then give the military industrial complex trillions to knock him out of power and watch as things get even worse in said country. We have seen this movie before with Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, and the Taliban. And anyone who objects to that money being spent on this nonsense abroad is told, "What is a matter with you, you love Hussein, Gaddafi, the Taliban, or Putin?
And you are right. The Ukrainian people will suffer the same fate as those in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan while the military industrial complex lines its pockets. If you oppose them, well, you end up dead like JFK or charged like Trump. Biden was building up for war on literally the first day he was in office.If you define provoking Russia as "doing stuff that Putin doesn't like," then there's a whole shitload of "provocation" out there. If you define it that way then there's literally no limit to the things Russia can claim as justification for aggression. Or, maybe it's more correct to say that such justifications are only limited by Russian imagination and propaganda.
Russians have already conjured up enough "provocation" to justify their military aggressions against Georgia and Moldova. And anyone paying attention will have noticed they have ready-made "provocations" against Poland and the Baltics that can be taken off the shelf and used when needed.
Any clown can say that they "feel threatened," but the proof of whether a true threat exists depends on an assessment of objective facts.
Objective Fact #1: Ukraine has never posed a military threat to Russia. Had Ukraine ever attempted military action against Russia they would have received zero support from the West. They also would have been trounced by Russia since, as the current war demonstrates, it's much harder to attack than it is to defend.
Objective Fact #2: NATO posed zero offensive threat to Russia. Not only is NATO defensive in nature and by charter, but it would take unanimous consent of all 30 (now 31) members before an offensive action (against anyone) would be approved. Before the Feb 24th invasion, because several NATO members were friendly to Russia (Hungary, Germany, France, etc.), not only would Russia have had advance notice of any significant developments but any single one of those (formerly) friendly nations would have had veto power they could exercise.
Objective Fact #3: The myth of so-called promises re NATO expansion has been debunked by no less than Mikhail Gorbachev, himself. He stated in an interview that discussions on that topic centered on German reunification and the territory of former East Germany. And, not only was there no formal agreement on that subject, during Yeltsin's tenure Russia was even contemplating joining NATO. So the about-face and demonization of NATO is a feature of Putinism and his need to find excuses for his own aggression abroad and repression at home.
Oh yeah, and your entire post ignores the agency of Little Vlad, himself. Nobody forced him to order the invasion. Prior to Feb 24th he had all kinds of diplomatic and geopolitical cards he could have played, all from a position of strength. Now he's flushed every one of those options down the toilet and is no longer the master of his own (and Russia's) fate.
And you've also pointedly denied agency to the Ukrainian people, who simply want to keep their land, prevent their women from being raped and their children from being kidnapped, and to stay alive.
But sure, it's all the USA's fault, isn't it?
P.S. As to the future, unlike some I don't pretend to have a crystal ball. But I'd simply note how many "expert" predictions have already been proven wrong. And how many surprising turns of events (rapid NATO accession for Finland, EU decoupling from Russian energy supplies, etc.), have come to pass. So, if I had to place a bet, it'd be on a Ukrainian future as part of the EU (for sure) and NATO (likely). And I'd lay long odds on Russia becoming a vassal state of China, just a bit higher than North Korea in the pecking order.
Kudos to you. My post was addressed to ISG's prolific arm chair generals. As for the President, this horrible disaster reflects visibly upon him also. What choice in realpolitik has he got? No one ever wanted even a scratch on a hand.He played the invasion card, no one forced him. And, for those who simply observe events as they unfold on the battlefield, the term "armchair general" is incorrect. It certainly applies to some ISG members, but not all.
Quote of the day, 'To paraphrase former Secretary of Defense Bob Gates, any American president or politician who is willing to risk a high-end conventional land war with Russia should have his head examined, or at a minimum, deserves serious psychiatric care. The same must be said of anyone in Washington who wants to engage in nuclear brinksmanship with Moscow. '.With all due respect to SecDef Gates, and others, that quote was appropriate for the Cold War era in which the USSR had its de facto empire and wasn't actively trying to expand. This current era features a megalomaniac in the Kremlin who sees himself as a modern day Peter the Great, with a mandate and destiny to reclaim "historic" Russian lands.
Putin is essentially saying "I want to possess Ukraine. Let me have it or I will rattle my nuclear (WW-III, OMG!) saber". The problem with giving in to such blackmail is that the blackmailer has no incentive to stop. In fact, showing weakness actually incentivizes the blackmailer to keep going. So the next demand could be Poland, or Latvia, or another (fill in the blank) country.
No one in the West is playing the nuclear brinkmanship game. It's all coming from Little Vlad. Which means only he can unilaterally stop it. The West has a choice between displaying weakness or strength. From Putin's past behavior, we know he despises weakness and respects only strength. Not really a difficult call to make, IMO.
Also, the elephant in the room is Russia's newly acquired master, China. From the CCP's various statements, it's rather clear that any nuclear transgression would incur China's wrath. Russia would, at a minimum, likely forfeit China's support. The last thing China wants is nuclear instability and proliferation, as Japan and Korea would almost certainly move to develop their own nukes.
To use your own imagery, allowing Putin to dictate the terms of the nuclear debate would be like letting the inmates run the asylum. Putin could certainly benefit from some ("Here, Vlad, bite down on this") electro-shock therapy.
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-coming-ukrainian-offensives
No armchair in sight. It's most definitely his own opinion, nothing more, but he has expertise and experience that regular schmucks (myself included) will never have. He's pro-Ukraine, but that doesn't invalidate the facts he presents and observations he makes. People are free to disagree or debate the issues, but they should do so on the basis of countervailing facts and competing arguments.
A pathway to democracy: Banned: languages, opposition parties, opposition mass media, exit out of the country, church. All checked.
Biden said to Putin he would not rule out Ukraine joining NATO, and Russia invaded shortly after that.Not only Biden but NATO Secretary Stoltenberg as well.
"Ukraine is a sovereign, independent nation. And every sovereign, independent nation has the right to choose its own path, including what kind of security arrangements it wants to be part of. So it is up to Ukraine and 30 allies to decide when Ukraine is ready to join the alliance," Stoltenberg said during a NATO meeting in Riga, Latvia.
Russia has no veto, no right to interfere in that process," Stoltenberg said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/08/biden-didnt-accept-putins-red-line-on-ukraine-what-it-means.html
Damn straight. Russia wants veto power in the matter but has NONE. NATO isn't NATO anymore if they assent to such absurdity. Putin's demand was ridiculous and he knew it would be rejected, thus giving himself the green light to do what he wanted to do, and to continue reversing post Cold War border and security agreements that he's been stewing about for 30 years.
Elvis I don't think you are a bad guy, but need to get out of your far right vaccum and expand your reading list. No one is 100% objective as the human condition prevents it. We all bring baggage to the table, but truth is better dechiphered by reading a range of sources, right, left and center, while extremes on the spectrum are usually only useful for comedy. Like the stolen election hogwash, that Carlson, Hannity, and Ingraham all knew was nonsense, as proven by their text messages.
A pathway to democracy: Banned: languages, opposition parties, opposition mass media, exit out of the country, church. All checked.Then, and only then, will all the necessary boxes be checked. Russia is so thoroughly perverse that even the Russian Orthodox Church is infested with diseased FSB elements. Cutting out the cancer is the only solution. Plenty of Eastern Orthodox and Ukrainian Orthodox (non-Moscow Patriarchate) churches to serve the needs of the people.
Russian soldiers the fuck out of Ukraine. Russian cancerous influences the fuck out of Ukraine. THEN some semblance of normalcy can start to return.
P.S. What a clown-car farce it is to criticize Ukraine for things Russia has been doing for decades, and on a much larger scale. Why don't you ask the young Russian girl who is being put into foster care, and her father arrested, because she drew an anti-war picture in school? Oh, yeah! Russia's a real model of openness and tolerance, right?
A pathway to democracy: Banned: languages, opposition parties, opposition mass media, exit out of the country, church. All checked.A perfect description of Muscovy. Thanks for pointing this out. Why don't you show us your Freedom of Speech? We will continue laughing at you, we can't pity you any more.
Bandera screaming in hell would have preferred his arse burned on a pan to seeing jester-acting-a-jew selling Ukraine to his Polish master (adapted from titles below):
Then, and only then, will a
P.S. What a clown-car farce it is to criticize Ukraine for things Russia has been doing for decades, and on a much larger scale. Why don't you ask the young Russian girl who is being put into foster care, and her father arrested, because she drew an anti-war picture in school? Oh, yeah! Russia's a real model of openness and tolerance, right?You'd think people who travel, that is sometimes find themselves in other places, would have the simple sense to avoid cultural comparisons from their homeland perspective. But then again, if their only comparative mentality is the price of hookers, you could hardly blame them.
P.S. Would you let a drag queen babysit your children? Or your grandchildren?
Bandera screaming in hell would have preferred his arse burned on a pan to seeing jester-acting-a-jew selling Ukraine to his Polish master (adapted from titles below):Russia has no future because Little Vlad has flushed it down the shitter. Now he needs to ask permission from Master Xi before he can wipe his own ass.
Everything of value in Russia will eventually be taken over by China. But the Chinese aren't totally heartless. The stray dog population will be left alone and free North Korean cookbooks will be made available. Mutt shashlik, anyone?
You'd think people who travel, that is sometimes find themselves in other places, would have the simple sense to avoid cultural comparisons from their homeland perspective. But then again, if their only comparative mentality is the price of hookers, you could hardly blame them.
P.S. Would you let a drag queen babysit your children? Or your grandchildren?There is already an abundance of evidence, with more being discovered every day, that Putin's Orcs are responsible for:
1. The murder of unarmed civilians. In Bucha, Irpin, and more, bodies are being uncovered with signs of torture and execution (buried with hands tied), etc. These incidents are being documented by international and third-country organizations, not simply Ukrainians. At the appropriate time I fully expect war crimes charges to be brought.
2. In the same way as #1, torture chambers have been discovered in areas formerly occupied by the Orc hordes, such as Kherson, etc. These are also being documented by a variety of organizations (not just Ukrainian). Again, at the appropriate time, I fully expect war crimes charges will be brought.
3. The removal of children from Ukraine to Russia, and placing them for 'adoption' by Russians, has already been adjudged worthy of war crime charges. IMO, this was the first charge to be brought because it's so blatantly obvious, even in the supposed 'fog' of war.
4. Putting a father in jail because of a drawing his young daughter made in school, and removing that girl from the custody of her father, is only a 'cultural comparison' if you're using China, North Korea, and Iran as your models. Once you step an inch outside that extreme authoritarian world view, such actions are universally viewed as repression.
Finally, in response to your idiotic question, I have an impeccably logical answer:
A) I would not let a draq queen babysit my children or grandchildren.
B) I would not let Golfinho babysit my children or grandchildren.
Therefore, by the immutable mathematical proposition that states, if X1 = Z and X2 = Z, then X1 = X2, the inevitable conclusion is that Golfinho = drag queen.
Class dismissed. Any questions?
P.S. This unassailable mathematical proof explains SO much about the mentality behind your posts. I suggest that, from this point forward, other forum members refer to you as DragQuinho. It's got quite a nice ring to it, don't you think?
Bandera screaming in hell would have preferred his arse burned on a pan to seeing jester-acting-a-jew selling Ukraine to his Polish master (adapted from titles below):I see that Muscovy's rouble is tumbling even though trading is banned and the currency doesn't float any more. Or do you keep your liquidity in the currency of your new masters? ROFL.
The message on Pussy Willow Sunday:
The message on Pussy Willow Sunday:Hey, Vlad! Are those some six inch high lifts in your shoes? Damn, you really short, bro!
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1644561285739347968
The message on Pussy Willow Sunday:The reality of the day though.
There is already an abundance of evidence, with more being discovered every day, that Putin's Orcs are responsible for:
1. The murder of unarmed civilians. In Bucha, Irpin, and more, bodies are being uncovered with signs of torture and execution (buried with hands tied), etc. These incidents are being documented by international and third-country organizations, not simply Ukrainians. At the appropriate time I fully expect war crimes charges to be brought.
2. In the same way as #1, torture chambers have been discovered in areas formerly occupied by the Orc hordes, such as Kherson, etc. These are also being documented by a variety of organizations (not just Ukrainian). Again, at the appropriate time, I fully expect war crimes charges will be brought.
3. The removal of children from Ukraine to Russia, and placing them for 'adoption' by Russians, has already been adjudged worthy of war crime charges. IMO, this was the first charge to be brought because it's so blatantly obvious, even in the supposed 'fog' of war.
4. Putting a father in jail because of a drawing his young daughter made in school, and removing that girl from the custody of her father, is only a 'cultural comparison' if you're using China, North Korea, and Iran as your models. Once you step an inch outside that extreme authoritarian world view, such actions are universally viewed as repression.
Finally, in response to your idiotic question, I have an impeccably logical answer:
A) I would not let a draq queen babysit my children or grandchildren.
B) I would not let Golfinho babysit my children or grandchildren.
Therefore, by the immutable mathematical proposition that states, if X1 = Z and X2 = Z, then X1 = X2, the inevitable conclusion is that Golfinho = drag queen.
Class dismissed. Any questions?
P.S. This unassailable mathematical proof explains SO much about the mentality behind your posts. I suggest that, from this point forward, other forum members refer to you as DragQuinho. It's got quite a nice ring to it, don't you think?It rings like all your utterances, jms.
Therefore, by the immutable mathematical proposition that states, if X1 = Z and X2 = Z, then X1 = X2, the inevitable conclusion is that Golfinho = drag queen.
Class dismissed. Any questions?
P.S. This unassailable mathematical proof explains SO much..?By your unassailable immutable proposition mathematical proof your drag queen would be right at home in Ukraine where you do your mongering, whereas in Russia he / she / it would be thrown into a dungeon and / or tortured and warcrimed as in Bucha, and everywhere else where these fascistic orcs appear.
Glad to school you anytime, Utter.
It rings like all your utterances, jms.Because this was about as pathetic a non-response as this forum has ever seen. And that's saying a LOT!
By your unassailable immutable proposition mathematical proof your drag queen would be right at home in Ukraine where you do your mongering, whereas in Russia he / she / it would be thrown into a dungeon and / or tortured and warcrimed as in Bucha, and everywhere else where these fascistic orcs appear.
Glad to school you anytime, Utter.You brought up the subject, or did that already slip your mind? I certainly understand if you're embarassed by your obvious draq queen fetish, but projecting your flaws onto others won't solve your problem.
I'm sure there's a Drag Queens Anonymous recovery group you can join. Just make sure to "dress" appropriately for the occasion.
It has been reported that soon your local ATMs would be equipped with an extra option: a morbid jester's face is going to appear on a screen, with a dark open left nostril, and beg for a donation in a low screeching voice. Once you insert a banknote into the open orifice, the machine will snort it in and the face will disappear from the screen. No receipts will be available.
Quote of the day, 'To paraphrase former Secretary of Defense Bob Gates, any American president or politician who is willing to risk a high-end conventional land war with Russia should have his head examined, or at a minimum, deserves serious psychiatric care. Yeah, about that. Did he say that before or after the vastly outnumbered AFU revealed the "second world army" as a paper tiger? Just curious how many days it would take NATO to completely destroy Russia on the battlefield. 4 or 5?
same must be said of anyone in Washington who wants to engage in nuclear brinksmanship with Moscow. '.Here we go. And this is the only reason why Putin is still breathing and the Organized Criminal Group, mistakenly known as the Russian Federation is still murdering unarmed Ukrainian civilians.
I only hope that Klaus Fuchs and other useful idiots who gave the insane belligerent regime the ability to destroy the world are spinning nonstop in their fucking graves.
Typical idiot RuZZian living in the past. Let me explain it for you so that even an Orc can understand. When Bob Gates said that, that was before the RuZZian army was revealed to be a Paper Tiger. Now that everyone knows that Muscovy has a Potemkin army, the whole world is laughing, and people are not afraid. Look at the CSTO, members are getting ready to arrest Putin. Good job!Shit, this is funny. I posted my response before seeing yours, LOL.
It has been reported that soon your local ATMs would be equipped with an extra option: a morbid jester's face is going to appear on a screen, with a dark open left nostril, and beg for a donation in a low screeching voice. Once you insert a banknote into the open orifice, the machine will snort it in and the face will disappear from the screen. No receipts will be available.https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1644412301385293825
Which brings to mind a famous line from "The Sun Also Rises," by Hemingway:
"How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."
Russians are in the process of experiencing that reality on a national scale. So, while you amuse yourself with masturbatory nonsense, Russia's future continues to swirl down the toilet.
It has been reported that soon your local ATMs would be equipped with an extra optionIt has been reported that your ATMs are going to stop dispensing money completely, hope you stuffed your mattress full of Yuan.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/apr/02/russian-writer-mikhail-shishkin-letter-ukrainian-invasion-anniversary-my-russia-war-peace
A penetrating critique of the Russian national psyche, put into words that only a Russian could effectively write.
Some highlights:
"Do dictators and dictatorships breed slave populations or do slave populations breed dictators? Ukraine was able to escape from this hellish circle, to escape from our common, monstrous, bloody past. For this reason it is hated by Russian impostors. A free and democratic Ukraine can serve as an example for the Russian population, which is why it is so important for Putin to destroy you".
"In Russia, we had neither de-Stalinisation, nor the Nuremberg trials of the Communist party of the Soviet Union. The result we see: a new dictatorship. A dictatorship, by its very nature, cannot exist without enemies, which means war".
"My country has fallen out of time. In the 21st century, the modern man himself is responsible for deciding what is good and what is evil. And if he sees that his country and his people are waging a despicable shameful war, he will be against his country and against his people. But most Russians mentally live in the past, when people associated themselves with their tribe. Our tribe is always right, and the other tribes are our enemies and want to destroy us. We are not responsible, we don't decide anything, the chief / khan / king decides everything for us".
"The only way out is to inflict a military defeat on the Putin regime. Therefore, democratic countries must help the Ukrainians with everything they can, and above all with weapons. After the war, the whole world will come to your aid to reconstruct what has been destroyed, and the country will be able to rebuild itself. And Russia will lie in the ruins of economy and in the ruins of consciousness. A new birth of my country is possible only through the complete destruction of the Putin regime. The empire must be amputated from the Russian person, like a malignant cancer. This "hour zero" is vital for Russia. My country will have a future only if it passes through total defeat, as happened with Germany".
Well said.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/07/the-russians-arent-just-running-out-of-tanks-theyre-running-out-of-tank-crews-too-and-its-going-to-get-worse/
Main points:
1. Russia has lost a lot of tanks. This is a function of needing to conduct an offensive campaign in order to advance and seize territory.
2. For each lost tank, unless it was caused by mechanical breakdown or other non-battle event, some or all of the tank crew were likely injured or killed.
3. For various reasons (sanctions, worker shortages, etc.) Russia is struggling to replace the loss of their most modern tanks with equivalent models.
4. Russia is attempting to compensate by using older (formerly mothballed) tank models, upgraded if possible.
5. The kinds of possible upgrades available (sighting mechanisms, etc.) still can't change the fundamental vulnerabilities that caused those tank models to become obsolete.
6. Tank crews operating older tank models, even if refurbished, are at greater risk of injury or death.
7. Taking all the above into account, the result is a vicious negative cycle which exacerbates Russia's tank crew problem.
Note: For those who might say that Ukraine faces similar issues, the obvious response is that the war is being waged asymmetrically. Ukraine can defend against tanks with shoulder-fired ATGMs, or drone-adjusted indirect fire. With the possible exception of the Kharkhiv offensive, I don't believe Ukraine has (so far) launched a major tank-centric operation.
Easter seems to be going well, thought I'd post this meme before the resident retard posts his usual vatnik shit. Reaction folder is full of memes, but I will try to get some in Chinese to help him with his studies.
Cocraine's nasty green blob wants more and more.
Cocraine's nasty green blob wants more and more.As I've noted before, every time you post something inanely stupid, it's followed by the obliteration of somewhere between 400-700 Orc invaders.
Must be more than mere coincidence, right?
Rapists and child kidnappers nasty vatnik face wants more and more.Tell us oh wise one, what is the rate of inflation in your beloved country?
The demons have removed their masks.
The demons have removed their masks.There, fixed it for ya!
Quote 'What also is unknown is that Zelensky has been buying the fuel from Russia, the country with which it, and Washington, are at war, and the Ukrainian president and many in his entourage have been skimming untold millions from the American dollars earmarked for diesel fuel payments' -.
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/trading-with-the-enemy
'An Eagle for the city of Lvov'.
Our resident troll quotes a liar to avoid being called a liar. Clever.
'An Eagle for the city of Lvov'.And a dick in the ass of Muscovy from the whole world.
Quote 'What also is unknown is that Zelensky has been buying the fuel from Russia, the country with which it, and Washington, are at war, and the Ukrainian president and many in his entourage have been skimming untold millions from the American dollars earmarked for diesel fuel payments' -.
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/trading-with-the-enemy
'An Eagle for the city of Lvov'.There are at least two points that serve as evidence of his non-credibility.
First, his alleged "scoop" about the Nordstream bombing was posted on his personal substack. The fact that he avoided publishing on ANY established site, even those of the pro-Russia persuasion, demonstrates his reluctance (or inability) to share any information about his "source" or any other details that a responsible publisher might want to double-check. Personal substack + anonymous source = zero credibility.
Second, Hersh tries to create pseudo-credibility by leveraging his reputation from past stories he's reported. But that's problematic because plenty of that reporting has been thoroughly debunked.
https://www.vox.com/2015/5/11/8584473/seymour-hersh-osama-bin-laden
Hersh reached the pinnacle of his career during the Vietnam War years. Subsequently he's become a caricature of his former self. It's a bit like a formerly A-List movie star being reduced to a cameo role on Love Boat. Rather a sad spectacle.
But hey, since birds of a (pathetic) feather flock together, it's no surprise he's your go-to guy!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apotheosis_of_War
Locamotive
04-14-23, 15:27
And, as I specifically pointed out, that kind of flawed reasoning isn't limited to any one viewpoint.
In stark contrast, the correct approach is to use observable facts to inform your own opinions. BTW, your use of a facile (flawed) analogy is another quintessential example of sloppy thinking. In your mind the Russian military = the Dallas Cowboys and Ukraine's forces = a High School team. You slap a "reality" label on this when it's nothing more that a construct that lives in your own brain. And, because you're locked into this view, you conveniently ignore or downplay any facts that contradict it. Consider, for example, that your "Dallas Cowboys" have been pushed steadily backward for over a year. Wow, how is it that the high school team is consistently winning at the line of scrimmage? And how many fumbles and other critical mistakes has the "pro" team made?
While I doubt you'll read it, here's an interesting look at some other inconvenient facts. Ukraine was never weaker or more vulnerable than immediately after the invasion. And yet they were able to repel Russian forces from the outskirts of Kyiv. Here's one account of how that happened, which I'm happy to post for any forum member who might be interested:A 21 year old National guard soldier was arrested yesterday for reveling sensitive military secret's. All over every news channel last night even the liberal idiots didn't know what to say. Those of us living in reality knew this all along. The Joint Chiefs and our president were all lying, big time. Russia is losing 1 soldier to Ukraine 6, a five year old knows that won't work. Many other lies were reveled about weapons and money but I thought the kill ratio to be biggest lie. Millie and Austin should both be court-martial for lying to the American people. Many other spooky things were in the document release but Ukraine info is the topic here. They had no chance and our military knew this, the bullshit is over. It will interesting to see how they spin it now.
...Orc sounds...Since you like Wikipedia, take a refresher course on this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_crime
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apotheosis_of_WarThe more it becomes clear that there's little hope for your beloved Russian invaders, and Russia as a whole, the more you're reduced to finding inanely stupid things to post.
Pretty desperate stuff, eh? Imagine how they must feel in the Kremlin! I guess it serves as a distraction from that loud flushing sound.
A 21 year old National guard soldier was arrested yesterday for reveling sensitive military secret's. All over every news channel last night even the liberal idiots didn't know what to say. Those of us living in reality knew this all along. The Joint Chiefs and our president were all lying, big time. Russia is losing 1 soldier to Ukraine 6, a five year old knows that won't work. Many other lies were reveled about weapons and money but I thought the kill ratio to be biggest lie. Millie and Austin should both be court-martial for lying to the American people. Many other spooky things were in the document release but Ukraine info is the topic here. They had no chance and our military knew this, the bullshit is over. It will interesting to see how they spin it now.Does anyone truly know how much of the info is accurate? I doubt it and, if I was the US and Ukraine, it might be a highly useful intel op to orchestrate a release that could serve either as misinformation or as a distraction from Ukraine's coming counteroffensive.
I've seen various reports and analyses about the situation and none of them have given me any sense that there will be any effect on actual battlefield realities.
Ukraine has whatever resources it has, and Russia has whatever resources they have, and facts on the ground will determine the outcome. I certainly understand that copium is a strong motivation for the pro-Russia crowd to grasp at any straws they can. Whatever the outcome of the intel disclosures (real or planted) I doubt they'll have much, if any, practical impacts. Nice try though!
You know, if it is a psyop, then those who orchestrated it can be encouraged by how quickly and completely you bought into it. And the questions they must be asking themselves in the Kremlin is what's real, what's fake, and does any of it make a damn bit of difference on the battlefield?
P.S. Better double-check your "facts" about the kill ratio. That's already been debunked as having been photoshopped by pro-Russia bloggers. But hey, copium is one hell of a strong drug, right?
A 21 year old National guard soldier was arrested yesterday for reveling sensitive military secret's. All over every news channel last night even the liberal idiots didn't know what to say. Those of us living in reality knew this all along. The Joint Chiefs and our president were all lying, big time. Russia is losing 1 soldier to Ukraine 6, a five year old knows that won't work. Many other lies were reveled about weapons and money but I thought the kill ratio to be biggest lie. Millie and Austin should both be court-martial for lying to the American people. Many other spooky things were in the document release but Ukraine info is the topic here. They had no chance and our military knew this, the bullshit is over. It will interesting to see how they spin it now.In case you REALLY don't know, that particular page was fabricated by Russia. It's been proven by comparing the originally "leaked" page to the Russia's photoshopped image.
Take casualty figures. It comes as little surprise to learn that the US estimates that between 189,500 and 223,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded.
The equivalent figure for Ukraine's losses - between 124,500 and 131,000 - is also in line with ballpark figures briefed to journalists in recent weeks.
In both cases, the Pentagon says it has "low confidence" in the figures, due to gaps in information, operational security and deliberate attempts, probably by both sides, to mislead.
Tellingly, this is the one place where attempts have been made to alter the documents to make it look as if Ukraine is experiencing the worst casualties.
A version which appeared on a pro-Russian Telegram site took the number of Ukrainians "killed in action" ("16k-17.5k") and put those on the Russian ledger, while flipping the numbers on the Ukrainian side so they read "61k - 71.5k".https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65225985
Which brings me to yet another point: not only Russian trolls are typically dumb, but they're also lazy to the point of disbelief.
DramaFree11
04-14-23, 23:12
Does anyone truly know how much of the info is accurate? I doubt it and, if I was the US and Ukraine, it might be a highly useful intel op to orchestrate a release that could serve either as misinformation or as a distraction from Ukraine's coming counteroffensive.
I've seen various reports and analyses about the situation and none of them have given me any sense that there will be any effect on actual battlefield realities.
Ukraine has whatever resources it has, and Russia has whatever resources they have, and facts on the ground will determine the outcome. I certainly understand that copium is a strong motivation for the pro-Russia crowd to grasp at any straws they can. Whatever the outcome of the intel disclosures (real or planted) I doubt they'll have much, if any, practical impacts. Nice try though!
You know, if it is a psyop, then those who orchestrated it can be encouraged by how quickly and completely you bought into it. And the questions they must be asking themselves in the Kremlin is what's real, what's fake, and does any of it make a damn bit of difference on the battlefield?
P.S. Better double-check your "facts" about the kill ratio. That's already been debunked as having been photoshopped by pro-Russia bloggers. But hey, copium is one hell of a strong drug, right?M.
You guys are dreaming that there will be a Spring Offensive from Ukraine, they are finished.
I do believe that parts of the reports are true, but this guy was probably set-up by the CIA. Interesting how the media is suddenly talking about corruption in Ukraine government. Something is definitely up. The Ukraine military has done an amazing job and totally over achieved, but they are done, time negotiations, that should have happened, 13 months ago.
https://youtu.be/Vc_3I1E3QYE
After 30 years of neglect and abuse of her own body and soul the mortally ill patient is on an operation table.
M.
You guys are dreaming that there will be a Spring Offensive from Ukraine, they are finished.
I do believe that parts of the reports are true, but this guy was probably set-up by the CIA. Interesting how the media is suddenly talking about corruption in Ukraine government. Something is definitely up. The Ukraine military has done an amazing job and totally over achieved, but they are done, time negotiations, that should have happened, 13 months ago.Speculations are a dime a dozen, so forgive me if I toss your contribution on the pile with the rest of them.
As for a Spring counteroffensive, I would argue that launching one is a military, social, and political imperative for Ukraine. Russia doesn't really have any internal or external audiences they need to satisfy. Even if the ultra-nationalists aren't satisfied, there's not much they can do about it.
Ukraine, in stark contrast, has both internal and external audiences who have expectations that need to be managed or met. The Ukrainian people certainly expect their leaders to produce something, or to at least make the effort. They're understanding of the fact that resources are limited, but it's doubtful they'd be understanding of inaction. I have no particular allegiance to Zelensky and, if calls come for him to step down and be replaced by the Defense Minister, Head of the Armed Forces, or someone else, I don't think that would cause insurmountable problems.
On the external front, Europe and the US are less likely to continue robust support if things devolve into a stalemate. Right now it's rasputitsa season, which makes large-scale offensive campaigns impractical. I've seen various estimates that weather and road conditions will be favorable starting around mid-May. Only Ukraine knows their own timetable, but I'd be highly surprised if something significant doesn't happen by June.
Mind you, I'm not predicting how things will turn out on the battlefield. I'm simply noting that the pressure is on Ukraine to take some initiative. Whether it succeeds or not depends on a set of variables about which no reasonable observer or analyst would pretend to have full knowledge.
Those who think they have a crystal ball should at least be honest enough to admit that so many past 'expert predictions' have been way off the mark. Unfortunately, intellectual integrity and humility are in desperately short supply nowadays.
https://youtu.be/Vc_3I1E3QYE
After 30 years of neglect and abuse of her own body and soul the mortally ill patient is on an operation table.And, when it dies, there will be no mourning and no memorial service. The civilized world will stand aside and watch as dogs fight over pieces of the putrid corpse.
John Clayton
04-15-23, 06:49
https://youtu.be/Vc_3I1E3QYE
After 30 years of neglect and abuse of her own body and soul the mortally ill patient is on an operation table.Are you a Russian bot? Really, why do you exist?
Elvis 2008
04-15-23, 16:27
Are you a Russian bot? Really, why do you exist?To make fun of guys like you who swallow the official narrative whole. You are as real on Ukraine as you were on Covid.
To make fun of guys like you who swallow the official narrative whole. You are as real on Ukraine as you were on Covid.Anyone who uncritically swallows either the pro-Russia or the pro-Ukraine narrative is a gullible idiot. The only things that matter are actual facts on the ground. Using that as a metric, here are some relevant observations:
1. Russia currently controls much less territory than they did in the immediate aftermath of their invasion.
2. Russia appears to be having difficulty replacing modern equipment used or destroyed in battle. The evidence for this is their use of refurbished older tank models and the dramatic decrease in their missile usage.
3. Russia currently has the explicit or implicit support, in the material sense, of China, Iran, and North Korea. Ukraine currently has the explicit or implicit support of the US, most of Europe, and other significant countries like Japan, Australia, Canada, etc.
I could go on, but the above items make my point. Narratives are fueled in many ways (personal likes, dislikes, other emotional considerations, etc.), but actual facts are stubborn things. People who cling to their preferred narrative are often the same ones who believe they can predict outcomes. The stubborn facts, however, have confounded many such pseudo-experts. I fully expect that trend to continue.
P.S. One's past position on COVID, or any other issue, is completely irrelevant to the Ukraine discussion. A classic red herring fallacy, if ever there was one.
Up to 82% of the wounded and sick military defense forces return to duty after treatment. According to the president of the National Academy of Medical Sciences, the mortality rate at the stage of evacuation from the battlefield has decreased to 1. 35%. The new Military Medical Doctrine of Ukraine follows the Israeli practice where all civilian hospitals become military hospitals at the same time.
https://global.espreso.tv/up-to-82-of-ukrainian-military-return-to-service-after-treatment-for-wounds-and-diseases
Severely wounded Russians, on the other hand, are as good as dead. If they can't get back on their own, the help will never come. We-don't-leave-our-own-behind, my ass.
Elvis 2008
04-16-23, 02:00
M.
You guys are dreaming that there will be a Spring Offensive from Ukraine, they are finished.Yeah, it does not look like it.
I do believe that parts of the reports are true, but this guy was probably set-up by the CIA. Interesting how the media is suddenly talking about corruption in Ukraine government. Something is definitely up. The Ukraine military has done an amazing job and totally over achieved, but they are done, time negotiations, that should have happened, 13 months ago.I do not know, DF. The story is one so screwed up that it probably is something even the CIA could not come up with.
If the leaked files were misinformation and disinformation, why did he get arrested? The executive branch amazingly could not find out who leaked the abortion brief at SCOTUS but they had this guy in days. It is almost like the executive branch wanted the abortion leaker to go free. That person did not mess with their narrative.
What is true is the narrative is breaking down. Putin is Hitler but Hitler conquered most of Europe in the time Putin has not conquered Ukraine. Putin is insane except when it comes to nuclear war and then he is rational.
The Covid bullshit was a narrative from the same play book. Anyone against Fauci and his teams idiotic approach to Covid meant you wanted people dead with Covid. Of course, none of their brain dead treatments did much of anything except waste away trillions of dollars. Anyone against that fucker Fauci was anti-science and wanted people to die. Then we later learned that fucker Fauci funded the creation of Covid to begin with and edited a "scientific" paper that said anyone who said Covid came from a lab was engaging in conspiracy theory. So the so called expert who was calling all the shots was personally and probably financially benefitting from a crisis he caused.
And the same is true here. Biden provokes Putin into war and then gets billions to spend in any way he sees fit. I think he has a $100 billion slush fund for Ukraine and has only spent $30 billion of it. Like I said, I know for a fact Biden was spoiling for some kind of war. Putin just accommodated him. If anyone questions the spending on the war the same as how I questioned the spending on Covid, you get the predictable response. You a Putin bootlicker? You want to suck his dick?
Yeah, Ukraine has done better than expected. However, did you ever see anything in Russia that impressive? With me, I liked the art, the theater / ballet, the ice cream, and that was about it. Any impressive modern structure in Russia was built by someone other than the Russians. I just wonder how much of Ukraine doing this well in the war was Ukraine and how much of it was horrific Russian incompetence. I know how good the suppliers are on our end, and I am sure the Russian side pales in comparison.
As for predictions, that is easy. Thousands / millions will die for nothing. Trillions of dollars will be wasted. The war will end once there is no more money in it for the weapons makers, both sides will declare victory, and nothing fundamentally will have changed. Isn't that the way every war has gone since WW2/ Korea?
Meanwhile, there is this going on, https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/11/58percent-of-americans-are-living-paycheck-to-paycheck-cnbc-survey-reveals.html.
And this is my Tucker Carlson source, "More than half, or 58%, of all Americans are now living paycheck to paycheck, according to the CNBC Your Money Financial Confidence Survey, conducted in partnership with Momentive. ".
Oh yeah, we really need to spend trillions more in Ukraine. With the amount of money we spent on weapons, we could have bought all the land in the fucking country by now. At least then we would have something to show for all this. At best we are going to get bullshit assurances that Putin has been stopped.
Are you a Russian bot? Really, why do you exist?The message on Orthodox Easter: "Say unto God, How terrible art thou in thy works! Through the greatness of thy power shall thine enemies submit themselves unto thee. ".
The message on Orthodox Easter: More retarded shitSo no message of peace for Easter then?
https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1647319027738353668
Russian State TV now shows advertising for Russian Women to marry Chinese Men. Promising them a better life.
Guess those Chinese lessons will be more and more essential.
The subservience and subordination or Russia to the CCP is going really well.
The message on Orthodox Easter: "Say unto God, How terrible art thou in thy works! Through the greatness of thy power shall thine enemies submit themselves unto thee. ".And, when he does, he'll get to experience "How terrible art thou" on a first-hand basis. For the sake of Ukrainians AND Russians, let's hope that happens soon.
Maybe he can pay one of his KGB-priests for some absolution? Unfortunately, when he arrives at the pearly gates, anything he shows will have been flagged as a pirated copy!
Yeah, it does not look like it.
I do not know, DF. The story is one so screwed up that it probably is something even the CIA could not come up with.
If the leaked files were misinformation and disinformation, why did he get arrested? The executive branch amazingly could not find out who leaked the abortion brief at SCOTUS but they had this guy in days. It is almost like the executive branch wanted the abortion leaker to go free. That person did not mess with their narrative.
What is true is the narrative is breaking down. Putin is Hitler but Hitler conquered most of Europe in the time Putin has not conquered Ukraine. Putin is insane except when it comes to nuclear war and then he is rational.
The Covid bullshit was a narrative from the same play book. Anyone against Fauci and his teams idiotic approach to Covid meant you wanted people dead with Covid. Of course, none of their brain dead treatments did much of anything except waste away trillions of dollars. Anyone against that fucker Fauci was anti-science and wanted people to die. Then we later learned that fucker Fauci funded the creation of Covid to begin with and edited a "scientific" paper that said anyone who said Covid came from a lab was engaging in conspiracy theory. So the so called expert who was calling all the shots was personally and probably financially benefitting from a crisis he caused.
And the same is true here. Biden provokes Putin into war and then gets billions to spend in any way he sees fit. I think he has a $100 billion slush fund for Ukraine and has only spent $30 billion of it. Like I said, I know for a fact Biden was spoiling for some kind of war. Putin just accommodated him. If anyone questions the spending on the war the same as how I questioned the spending on Covid, you get the predictable response. You a Putin bootlicker? You want to suck his dick?
Yeah, Ukraine has done better than expected. However, did you ever see anything in Russia that impressive? With me, I liked the art, the theater / ballet, the ice cream, and that was about it. Any impressive modern structure in Russia was built by someone other than the Russians. I just wonder how much of Ukraine doing this well in the war was Ukraine and how much of it was horrific Russian incompetence. I know how good the suppliers are on our end, and I am sure the Russian side pales in comparison.
As for predictions, that is easy. Thousands / millions will die for nothing. Trillions of dollars will be wasted. The war will end once there is no more money in it for the weapons makers, both sides will declare victory, and nothing fundamentally will have changed. Isn't that the way every war has gone since WW2/ Korea?
Meanwhile, there is this going on, https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/11/58percent-of-americans-are-living-paycheck-to-paycheck-cnbc-survey-reveals.html.
And this is my Tucker Carlson source, "More than half, or 58%, of all Americans are now living paycheck to paycheck, according to the CNBC Your Money Financial Confidence Survey, conducted in partnership with Momentive. ".
Oh yeah, we really need to spend trillions more in Ukraine. With the amount of money we spent on weapons, we could have bought all the land in the fucking country by now. At least then we would have something to show for all this. At best we are going to get bullshit assurances that Putin has been stopped.Some essential (core) issues:
1. Russia started the war and can stop it anytime. The 'provoked' BS has already been thoroughly debunked in this forum, so no need to go there again. Of course, those who have drunk the "Russia as victim" kool-aid continue to overlook the clear debunkment evidence.
2. There is every reason to believe, from statements by Russia and from Putin himself (re 'historic' Russian lands), that Russia will not stop with Ukraine.
3. Ukraine has correctly assessed the situation as an existential threat. Simply stated, if they lose they will cease to exist. As a consequence, they will continue to resist irrespective of whether they receive external support.
4. External actors offer or withhold support (to either side) according to their individual assessment of the threat and their own interests. As one example, those Western countries closest to the conflict (Poland, Baltics, Nordics, etc.), have generally adopted the Ukrainian (existential threat) view of things.
Everything else is tangential. That doesn't mean that some tangential items aren't important (such as the level of external support), it simply means that changes in tangential items won't change the essential items listed above.
Some examples of tangential (not a complete list) issues:
1. The intel leak, whether it was orchestrated or not, is clearly tangential. It affects none of the core items. It may have some effect on tactics or timing, but those are not core items.
2. Weapons makers profits have been a feature of probably every conflict in the history of man. Anyone using that as a metric in deciding whether or not a conflict is worth fighting is missing the point. Wars are fought over essential issues, not tangential ones.
3. The level of support received from external actors is dynamic, and will inevitably fluctuate. It's not static because any reduction in one area could be (fully or partially) offset by an increase in another. If, for example, the US reduced support for Ukraine, it's not unreasonable to believe Europe (esp those who feel most threatened) would ramp up support.
4. There will always be other spending priorities that allow for the "Why are we spending $$ on this war when we should be spending it on X?" argument. This is tangential because it doesn't touch on the core issues as to why the war is being fought. For Ukraine, cost is irrelevant because their survival is at stake. For others, they can adjust as they choose, dependent on their own interests, but that doesn't change the core issues.
5. Narratives, from either side, are quintessential examples of tangential issues. The only narrative that will truly matter is the one written after the fact, and based on the reality of what happened on the battlefield and in geopolitical arena.
In sum, those who focus on the tangential are missing the signal for the noise. And those who base 'predictions' on the tangential are compounding the error.
And, when he does, he'll get to experience "How terrible art thou" on a first-hand basis. For the sake of Ukrainians AND Russians, let's hope that happens soon.
Maybe he can pay one of his KGB-priests for some absolution? Unfortunately, when he arrives at the pearly gates, anything he shows will have been flagged as a pirated copy!Well, there is only one hope for him.
Putin: What if he does exist?
Patriarch Cyrill: God forbid!
The spirit of Orthodox Easter: This Sunday a group of Ukrainian POW return home.
(click on Cancel then Play): https://t.me/RVvoenkor/42822.
Elvis 2008
04-17-23, 03:41
Anyone who uncritically swallows either the pro-Russia or the pro-Ukraine narrative is a gullible idiot. The only things that matter are actual facts on the ground. Using that as a metric, here are some relevant observations:
I could go on, but the above items make my point. Narratives are fueled in many ways (personal likes, dislikes, other emotional considerations, etc.), but actual facts are stubborn things. People who cling to their preferred narrative are often the same ones who believe they can predict outcomes. The stubborn facts, however, have confounded many such pseudo-experts. I fully expect that trend to continue.
P.S. One's past position on COVID, or any other issue, is completely irrelevant to the Ukraine discussion. A classic red herring fallacy, if ever there was one.JM, you do not get out much. There is the American narrative being spun by the Biden administration: Putin is evil, victory is near, Russia is evil, Russia is incompetent, Ukraine is winning, this is a war for Democracy, and like in all wars, if you are not with us, you are against us.
And so then you have this leak from this 21 year old kid: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/what-we-know-about-jack-teixeira-accused-involvement-classified-documents-leak.
After enlisting in September 2019, Teixeira became a cyber transport systems specialist. Teixeira has been mobilized for federal duty. Teixeira had top secret clearance and sensitive compartmented access to other highly classified programs since 2021.
A document posted on the social media platform was accessible to Teixeira, and USA Government logs showed that Teixeira accessed the document in February 2023, approximately one day before a social media user placed it on the internet.
The Washington Post reported the documents were posted on a private Discord community or "server" named Thug Shaker Central. "If I had to give a gauge on it, it would be more or less just some nerds wanting to glance over some stuff and compare and contrast and kind of have a little joke about it," an unidentified Discord server member said "At the end of the day, I mean we're just trying to have a fun time. " Discord is a particular favorite among young gamers who use Discord servers to share gameplay clips or stream themselves.
So this kid is playing a video game and starts talking war strategy in his group and no doubt he is combatting the Biden narrative in Ukraine. He gets upset that there are so many falling for the narrative and says, "I will show you" and leaks the documents. He is in this small 20 to 30 person group so he thinks he can get away with it. Well, he is wrong. And the facts in the documents, among them there are USA special forces fighting Russia in Ukraine, are very upsetting and throw the whole Biden narrative into question.
The files he posted are taken down from the internet and the information is called misinformation and disinformation of course.
If you had your head in the sand like JM and John Clayton did with Covid, sure, you can blow this off. What does Covid have to do with anything?
For the rest of us who were sane, it has to do with the fact that 40,000 government officials were scanning social media sites and taking down anything that upset the government narrative on Covid including the safety and efficacy of the vaccine. Among the most stupid and harmful narratives was withholding treatment from people with Covid who were not vaccinated.
Before the orcs were going to kill us all, it was the evil diseased anti-science, antivaxxers.
So when you start talking facts, we know we will hear all about how screwed up this kid is but the real question is: is the information he leaked true? And here is the funny thing about that. No one is denying American special forces are in Ukraine. That may be what is most disturbing, and we have been lied to before.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/biden-meet-german-chancellor-russia-ukraine-tesnions-rcna15190
Biden vows USA Will 'bring an end' to Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine.
And amazingly, Nordstream 2 is blown up, an act of war, and the Biden administration uses the handy Democratic excuse, "The Russians did it. " like that makes any sense.
So spare me with your "here are the facts routine". What you have listed is the information we have been spoon fed. And just like with the vaccine, we were spoon fed that the vaccine was a miracle and safe and effective.
The narrative is the USA is in a proxy war with Russia, and somebody like you buys that bullshit. When to someone like me, I take Biden at his word and that he blew up Nordstream 2 and I have not seen anyone say we do not have special forces in Ukraine, so I take that as fact too.
So fuck the proxy war. Right now, the USA is in at war with Russia. Those are the facts as I see them.
The spirit of Orthodox Easter: This Sunday a group of Ukrainian POW return home.
(click on Cancel then Play): https://t.me/RVvoenkor/42822.If Russia truly cared about the spirit of Easter, they'd pack up their shit and go back to their own country.
JM, you do not get out much. There is the American narrative being spun by the Biden administration: Putin is evil, victory is near, Russia is evil, Russia is incompetent, Ukraine is winning, this is a war for Democracy, and like in all wars, if you are not with us, you are against us.
And so then you have this leak from this 21 year old kid: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/what-we-know-about-jack-teixeira-accused-involvement-classified-documents-leak.
After enlisting in September 2019, Teixeira became a cyber transport systems specialist. Teixeira has been mobilized for federal duty. Teixeira had top secret clearance and sensitive compartmented access to other highly classified programs since 2021.
A document posted on the social media platform was accessible to Teixeira, and USA Government logs showed that Teixeira accessed the document in February 2023, approximately one day before a social media user placed it on the internet.
The Washington Post reported the documents were posted on a private Discord community or "server" named Thug Shaker Central. "If I had to give a gauge on it, it would be more or less just some nerds wanting to glance over some stuff and compare and contrast and kind of have a little joke about it," an unidentified Discord server member said "At the end of the day, I mean we're just trying to have a fun time. " Discord is a particular favorite among young gamers who use Discord servers to share gameplay clips or stream themselves.
So this kid is playing a video game and starts talking war strategy in his group and no doubt he is combatting the Biden narrative in Ukraine. He gets upset that there are so many falling for the narrative and says, "I will show you" and leaks the documents. He is in this small 20 to 30 person group so he thinks he can get away with it. Well, he is wrong. And the facts in the documents, among them there are USA special forces fighting Russia in Ukraine, are very upsetting and throw the whole Biden narrative into question.
The files he posted are taken down from the internet and the information is called misinformation and disinformation of course.
If you had your head in the sand like JM and John Clayton did with Covid, sure, you can blow this off. What does Covid have to do with anything?
For the rest of us who were sane, it has to do with the fact that 40,000 government officials were scanning social media sites and taking down anything that upset the government narrative on Covid including the safety and efficacy of the vaccine. Among the most stupid and harmful narratives was withholding treatment from people with Covid who were not vaccinated.
Before the orcs were going to kill us all, it was the evil diseased anti-science, antivaxxers.
So when you start talking facts, we know we will hear all about how screwed up this kid is but the real question is: is the information he leaked true? And here is the funny thing about that. No one is denying American special forces are in Ukraine. That may be what is most disturbing, and we have been lied to before.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/biden-meet-german-chancellor-russia-ukraine-tesnions-rcna15190
Biden vows USA Will 'bring an end' to Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine.
And amazingly, Nordstream 2 is blown up, an act of war, and the Biden administration uses the handy Democratic excuse, "The Russians did it. " like that makes any sense.
So spare me with your "here are the facts routine". What you have listed is the information we have been spoon fed. And just like with the vaccine, we were spoon fed that the vaccine was a miracle and safe and effective.
The narrative is the USA is in a proxy war with Russia, and somebody like you buys that bullshit. When to someone like me, I take Biden at his word and that he blew up Nordstream 2 and I have not seen anyone say we do not have special forces in Ukraine, so I take that as fact too.
So fuck the proxy war. Right now, the USA is in at war with Russia. Those are the facts as I see them.Doubling-down on narrative doesn't make it any more true. The general narrative-monger MO is to focus on whatever tends to confirm their preferred version while dismissing or ignoring anything that doesn't.
Let's take the "Proxy War" narrative, for example. There's a singular, foundational fact that I have yet to see any "Proxy War" promulgator successfully address. Here it is:
Russian military forces crossed into Ukraine on Feb 24th, 2022. At 0530 on that date (Moscow time), Putin went on Russian national television to announce the start of a "Special Military Operation".
Question: When Putin made that announcement, was he acting on his own (independent agent) or was he being controlled by one or more others (non-independent agent)?
If you believe that Putin is an independent agent, then that is a fatal flaw in the "Proxy War" narrative. Since the actual start of the current spate of hostilities was ordered and announced by Putin (unless he was somebody's proxy) the more accurate description of the current conflict is that it's a war that began as a direct result of Putin's personal decisions.
Once the (non-proxy) war began, every non-combatant country was free to support whichever side they wanted. In that respect, it's just as accurate to label Russia as a proxy of Iran, or China, as it is to label Ukraine a proxy of the US (or other allies). Nothing that's happened since can change the fact that Putin launched a war of aggression of his own volition.
Switching topics to the intel leak, it's an interesting exercise to consider whether any (or all) of it was planted. I have no idea, but it would be a fascinating intel op to create a controlled release and see what shakes out. It certainly would be an intriguing way to send a message to countries like Egypt, Israel, and the UAE, wouldn't it? BTW, specifically about the Special Ops info, I think you might have bought into someone's embellishment (or come up with it on your own).
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65245065
"According to the document, dated 23 March, the UK has the largest contingent of special forces in Ukraine (50), followed by fellow Nato states Latvia (17), France (15), the US (14) and the Netherlands (1). The document does not say where the forces are located or what they are doing".
So, as a factual matter, there is no evidence or indication that any of these military assets are engaging in combat. In fact, these numbers are quite consistent with what an Embassy Defense Attache's office might have as a complement. Also, since France has more than the US, wouldn't it be more in line with your narrative to label this a French-proxy War? Or what about a Latvia-proxy war?
Finally, on the topic of Nordstream 2, there are certainly a number of usual suspects, and you've chosen to pick one (the US) while some have chosen to pick others. In fact, there are at least FOUR possible theories:
https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-kremlin-russia-who-blew-up-nord-stream-2/
AND, in the same meeting from which you drew your Biden quote, here's another nugget:
"Scholz, meanwhile, declined to take a firm stance on the fate of Nord Stream 2, telling reporters that Germany was "acting together" with its allies and promising "very, very harsh" steps against Russia if it invades Ukraine".
So, for anyone looking for an anti-German spin, this could certainly serve as fodder for Theory #5. People are free to swallow whichever theory fits their preferred narrative. As for me, I'm reserving judgment until more facts come to light.
And that's what your narrative-centric post fails to grasp. I specifically reject ANY and ALL narratives that aren't backed up by objective facts. Also, just because one narrative appears to agree with, or confirm, another narrative doesn't meet a fact-based standard of proof. Stacking complementary narratives together is nothing more than a circle-jerk.
And so I repeat, from my earlier post:
"Anyone who uncritically swallows either the pro-Russia or the pro-Ukraine narrative is a gullible idiot. The only things that matter are actual facts on the ground".
I can certainly understand why facts might trouble you, especially those inconvenient for your preferred narrative. But just because Elvis has left the building doesn't mean the rest of us need to follow suit.
So spare me with your "here are the facts routine". What you have listed is the information we have been spoon fed.1. Russia currently controls much less territory than they did in the immediate aftermath of their invasion.
2. Russia appears to be having difficulty replacing modern equipment used or destroyed in battle. The evidence for this is their use of refurbished older tank models and the dramatic decrease in their missile usage.
3. Russia currently has the explicit or implicit support, in the material sense, of China, Iran, and North Korea. Ukraine currently has the explicit or implicit support of the US, most of Europe, and other significant countries like Japan, Australia, Canada, etc.
These are the facts I listed in the post to which you replied. I welcome any substantive, fact-based rebuttals.
The last supper: pass a test on 'the fathers of Ukrainian democracy'.
The last supper: pass a test on 'the fathers of Ukrainian democracy'.There's a special circle of Hell that's being newly constructed to receive Little Vlad and his demon hordes. Can't happen soon enough.
I know fuck allAs our resident expert on democracy, can you tell us how the democratic and free process is going in Muscovy?
You essentially are responding to the same old bullet points that portray Putin as a victim. It's Little Vlad's selfsame angle as it excuses his aggression. The proxy angle also denies Ukraine's agency in their desire to keep and fight for their land. It denies the agencies of many Eastern Euro countries that wanted to join the EU and NATO. It's thus all about the big bad mean boogie man Biden and the USA and Little Vlad in Trumpian fashion is the poor little victim. And the views of the isolationist right are one and the same as Russian propaganda, thus the lovefest. And of course we've been over this all many many times over the last 14 months. I'll said it again, Ronnie Reagan is turning in his grave.
There is the American narrative being spun by the Biden administration: Putin is evil, victory is near, Russia is evil, Russia is incompetent, Ukraine is winning, this is a war for Democracy, and like in all wars, if you are not with us, you are against us.I don't recall Biden ever "spinning" something like "victory is near," or "if you are not with us, you are against us. " Quotes?
Other than that -- what's your narrative? That Putin is good, Russia is good, Russia is competent, and Ukraine is losing?
Wait. You do believe that Ukraine is losing, don't you? Even though it's liberated 63% of the territory grabbed by RuZZia after February 24.
Not surprisingly, this narrative would be completely in line with that of your lord and savior Donald Trump.
Why are all right wingers so infatuated with Putin? I wish someone could explain.
1st link: Article translated via Google Translate.
2nd link: Original article (in German).
https://www-t--online-de.translate.goog/nachrichten/ausland/internationale-politik/id_100160712/explosionen-am-nord-stream-russland-schickte-schiffe-an-den-tatort.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true
https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/internationale-politik/id_100160712/explosionen-am-nord-stream-russland-schickte-schiffe-an-den-tatort.html
"The Danish military photographed Russian ships at the Nord Stream crime scene four days before the explosions. The pictures should remain secret.
Denmark confirms t-online research into the Nord Stream attack: There are 112 photos of Russian ships at the scene of the crime. They were made by the Danish Navy four days before the explosions. This emerges from a report in the Danish daily newspaper "Information". The Danish Ministry of Defense confirmed the existence of the images, but wants to keep them secret to protect intelligence work".
So, is this "smoking gun" definitive evidence? Absolutely not! But it is the result of research, by a German news organization, into the movement of Russian ships based in Kaliningrad. They then followed up with a request to the Danish government (I'm assuming the equivalent of a FOIA request), and received confirmation of their findings. Read the article for more details, and to form your own impressions, but that's what I see as the gist of it.
Whatever the true story turns out to be (if it's ever fully known), there's no doubt that this kind of investigative reporting is head-and-shoulders above Hersh's use of a single (completely unverifiable) anonymous source, posted solely on his personal blog. Furthermore, it's noteworthy that this evidence is presented in stand-alone form, without a specific narrative being pushed.
Congratulations on the 240th anniversary of Crimea becoming part of Russian Empire. There is a rumor that by May 5, 2024 everything is going to be over and Cirque de Soleil will present the following piece at the International Circus Festival of Monte-Carlo:
1st link: Article translated via Google Translate.
2nd link: Original article (in German).
https://www-t--online-de.translate.goog/nachrichten/ausland/internationale-politik/id_100160712/explosionen-am-nord-stream-russland-schickte-schiffe-an-den-tatort.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true
https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/internationale-politik/id_100160712/explosionen-am-nord-stream-russland-schickte-schiffe-an-den-tatort.html
"The Danish military photographed Russian ships at the Nord Stream crime scene four days before the explosions. The pictures should remain secret.
Denmark confirms t-online research into the Nord Stream attack: There are 112 photos of Russian ships at the scene of the crime. They were made by the Danish Navy four days before the explosions. This emerges from a report in the Danish daily newspaper "Information". The Danish Ministry of Defense confirmed the existence of the images, but wants to keep them secret to protect intelligence work".
So, is this "smoking gun" definitive evidence? We don't need the "definitive evidence". No one will ever be prosecuted for this crime. However, this will be yet another nail in the coffin of the Russian narrative in the arbitration case against them.
Not that it matters anyway. They began reducing the flow long before the blasts. By the time of the explosions, the delivery had been halted for weeks.
Evidence or no evidence, Gasprom (Russia) will pay up.
You essentially are responding to the same old bullet points that portray Putin as a victim. It's Little Vlad's selfsame angle as it excuses his aggression. The proxy angle also denies Ukraine's agency in their desire to keep and fight for their land. It denies the agencies of many Eastern Euro countries that wanted to join the EU and NATO. It's thus all about the big bad mean boogie man Biden and the USA and Little Vlad in Trumpian fashion is the poor little victim. And the views of the isolationist right are one and the same as Russian propaganda, thus the lovefest. And of course we've been over this all many many times over the last 14 months. I'll said it again, Ronnie Reagan is turning in his grave.It's quite clear that the Putin butt-boy apologists will never change their tune or beliefs, but that doesn't mean it's not worthwhile to expose their error and bile.
There are a few reasons why I take the time to respond: first, it's amusing to puncture their pseudo-logic and propaganda; second, it allows me to sharpen my argument for use with people with whom I interact IRL; third, it's possible that some article I find, fact I highlight, or argumentation point I make, might prove informative or useful to other forum members.
Besides, making fun of Kremlin fanboyz is like shooting fish in a barrel!
Congratulations on the 240th anniversary of Crimea becoming part of Russian Empire. There is a rumor that by May 5, 2024 everything is going to be over and Cirque de Soleil will present the following piece at the International Circus Festival of Monte-Carlo:Have you seen the latest? Russian women are being encouraged to learn Mandarin so they can attract a nice Chinese husband!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSq4qO-QbJo
There is a rumor that by May 5, 2024 everything is going to be over and Putin will be presented as the official jester at the International Circus Festival of Beijing.
ROFLMAO! Comrade Xi must be licking his chops (sticks)!
There is a rumor that by May 5, 2024 everything is going to be over
I don't think that rumour means what you think it means. What happened to the May parade, I heard that it got cancelled? Can you tell us more about that please?
We don't need the "definitive evidence". No one will ever be prosecuted for this crime. However, this will be yet another nail in the coffin of the Russian narrative in the arbitration case against them.
Not that it matters anyway. They began reducing the flow long before the blasts. By the time of the explosions, the delivery had been halted for weeks.
Evidence or no evidence, Gasprom (Russia) will pay up.I guess I could have been clearer about not meaning it in the criminal sense. Rather, as you implied, it presents an inconvenient set of facts for anyone who tries to claim that there's a single undisputed version of events. The pro-Russia crowd will certainly ignore or dismiss any such facts, but that's to be expected.
And facts like these might make a difference in the court of public opinion, especially in Europe. At a minimum it doesn't allow anti-West propaganda to go unchallenged. Anything that helps keep public support for Ukraine on a firm footing will also help keep European politicians in that same camp.
In case of a counter-retreat by the AFU the Russian Army is planning on to deploy a new Electronic Warfare system that jams all Russian language expletives used by the enemy. Without the expletives the personnel stays in disarray, incapacitated and unable to operate.
In case of a counter-retreat by the AFU the Russian Army is planning on to deploy a new Electronic Warfare system that jams all Russian language expletives used by the enemy. Without the expletives the personnel stays in disarray, incapacitated and unable to operate.Without being able to use Russian, the Orc stays in disarray, incapacitated and unable to operate.
And, as much as that sucks, just wait until all the Russian women are rounded up and sent off to China. Russian ethnicity is about to be swallowed up by the Han hordes.
Elvis 2008
04-20-23, 05:47
Denmark confirms t-online research into the Nord Stream attack: There are 112 photos of Russian ships at the scene of the crime. They were made by the Danish Navy four days before the explosions. This emerges from a report in the Danish daily newspaper "Information". The Danish Ministry of Defense confirmed the existence of the images, but wants to keep them secret to protect intelligence work".
So, is this "smoking gun" definitive evidence? Absolutely not! But it is the result of research, by a German news organization, into the movement of Russian ships based in Kaliningrad. They then followed up with a request to the Danish government (I'm assuming the equivalent of a FOIA request), and received confirmation of their findings. Read the article for more details, and to form your own impressions, but that's what I see as the gist of it.
Whatever the true story turns out to be (if it's ever fully known), there's no doubt that this kind of investigative reporting is head-and-shoulders above Hersh's use of a single (completely unverifiable) anonymous source, posted solely on his personal blog. Furthermore, it's noteworthy that this evidence is presented in stand-alone form, without a specific narrative being pushed.Not only that but two days before the attacks, ships were spotted drinking Russian vodka, and there was a Russian gum wrapper found close to the scene of the explosion. LOL. Are you fucking kidding me?
For those of us who actually use our brains, there is this, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-lng-exports-both-lifeline-drain-europe-2023-maguire-2022-12-20/"This means that the United States will remain the primary supplier of LNG to Europe for at least 2023. This will likely generate even greater revenue for you. S exporters after a record 2022, which totaled $35 billion through September, compared to $8. 3 billion over the same period in 2021, USA Energy Information Administration (EIA) data shows. ".
Thing about conspiracy theories is when the theory results in a participant of the conspiracy theory profiting in the billions, it no longer is conspiracy theory with me but probable fact.
OTOH, the conspiracy theory you buy JM about the Russians destroying their own pipeline results in their losing billions and potential trillions of dollars, and you swallowed it whole. Thing about you JM is when you start calling Russians orcs it is obvious that you are so blind that you will believe the Russians are capable of doing anything even things that make absolutely no economic sense like this.
With this much money at stake, you can make the case USA involvement in this war is not about Democracy or a sovereign nation or whatever but about the USA profiting off of it. We are telling Europe. Don't buy cheap natural gas off the Russians. Buy expensive natural gas from the USA. FWIW, Trump wanted the same damned thing from Europe.
John Clayton
04-20-23, 06:21
In case of a counter-retreat by the AFU the Russian Army is planning on to deploy a new Electronic Warfare system that jams all Russian language expletives used by the enemy. Without the expletives the personnel stays in disarray, incapacitated and unable to operate.Admin: this account is a bot.
Not only that but two days before the attacks, ships were spotted drinking Russian vodka, and there was a Russian gum wrapper found close to the scene of the explosion. LOL. Are you fucking kidding me?
For those of us who actually use our brains, there is this, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-lng-exports-both-lifeline-drain-europe-2023-maguire-2022-12-20/"This means that the United States will remain the primary supplier of LNG to Europe for at least 2023. This will likely generate even greater revenue for you. S exporters after a record 2022, which totaled $35 billion through September, compared to $8. 3 billion over the same period in 2021, USA Energy Information Administration (EIA) data shows. ".
Thing about conspiracy theories is when the theory results in a participant of the conspiracy theory profiting in the billions, it no longer is conspiracy theory with me but probable fact.
OTOH, the conspiracy theory you buy JM about the Russians destroying their own pipeline results in their losing billions and potential trillions of dollars, and you swallowed it whole. Thing about you JM is when you start calling Russians orcs it is obvious that you are so blind that you will believe the Russians are capable of doing anything even things that make absolutely no economic sense like this.
With this much money at stake, you can make the case USA involvement in this war is not about Democracy or a sovereign nation or whatever but about the USA profiting off of it. We are telling Europe. Don't buy cheap natural gas off the Russians. Buy expensive natural gas from the USA. FWIW, Trump wanted the same damned thing from Europe.How sad that you're so reading challenged, since I clearly stated that a single data point of evidence is not conclusive.
Evidence is what it is, and truth is what it is. In this particular case, the evidence is that Russian ships were photographed near the scene of the pipeline explosion four days before the event happened.
What anyone chooses to extrapolate from that data point is up to them. As for me, I'm all about evidence, so I'm happy to wait until more comes to light before making any conclusions. In stark contrast, people like you, to whom evidence is irrelevant, have already chosen their preferred narrative.
BTW, your post is clear evidence that you'd be well-advised to take a remedial reading comprehension course. Poor Elvis has truly left the building. Sorry if the truth gets you "All Shook Up".
Here you go, maybe this will help you feel better about your intellectual and logical deficiencies:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23zLefwiii4
OTOH, the conspiracy theory you buy JM about the Russians destroying their own pipeline results in their losing billions and potential trillions of dollars, and you swallowed it whole. Thing about you JM is when you start calling Russians orcs it is obvious that you are so blind that you will believe the Russians are capable of doing anything even things that make absolutely no economic sense like thisMy buddy Elvis has put me on ignore, so I won't blame him for "not seeing" my post about Russia being sued for billions of dollars for their failure to fulfill their contractual obligations.
But the real problem with ignorant Elvises is that they simply don't understand how diligently Russia can work to undermine their own interests.
The Russians tried to blackmail the West and force them to walk back the sanctions. This is not even the first time when Russia has tried to weaponize gas and oil. They've cut off gas supplies multiple times since 2006. That's what they do, economic sense be fucked.
Gasprom (allegedly) published a video threatening the new Ice Age in Europe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gl2FIqnLxAY
The plan was: Europe is weak. A few protests in the streets and they'll fold.
Only they didn't.
Putin didn't expect the West would not only survive the winter but find the strength to wean itself off Russia's dope entirely.
Putin gambled -- again and lost again.
Woops!
Admin: this account is a bot.Unfortunately, if you look into his posting history, it's real. Sad, I agree.
Admin: this account is a bot.Along with Putin butt-boys, maybe we should also start using the term Putin butt-bots? Although the latter are created by the former, they're not exactly the same thing.
Russia conducts surprise inspection of its Pacific Fleet.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-puts-pacific-fleet-high-alert-surprise-inspection-2023-04-14/
Russian admiral in charge of Pacific Fleet is removed.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11993749/Putin-FIRES-Pacific-fleet-admiral-sign-Vladimir-furious-military-drills-flop.html
Note: Some articles say "resigned," but plenty of others say he was sacked. Given the timing involved, I think it's fair to say this wasn't the Admiral's preferred course of action.
I guess this means the Pacific Fleet demonstrated about the same level of competence as Russia's failed ground forces in Ukraine. Which means, if there were any plans for a three-day invasion of Japan, those plans have been (literally and figuratively) sunk! Or would "torpedoed" be a better word to use?
when you start calling Russians orcs it is obvious that you are so blindMy basis for calling the Russians "Orcs" is the extreme depravity they've demonstrated in the commission of numerous atrocities. And those depravity-fueled atrocities have been confirmed by a number of third-party (non-Ukrainian) sources. I make absolutely NO apologies for using what I firmly believe is an accurate description. The term "Orc-hordes," or simply "Orcs," paints a picture that is better than a thousand other words.
However, in stark contrast to many (including you), I have the ability to keep my personal opinions separate from my observations with respect to objective fact (s). So, when I post about a specific piece of evidence, or a specific set of facts, I do my best to stay within the parameters those facts delineate. Also, I am always happy and ready to engage in fact-based debates and discussions. And I've even challenged the narrative-mongers to such debates. The response has either been more narrative or, more often (wait for it), nothing but crickets.
I fully understand what confirmation bias is, and I studiously avoid it. I let the facts shape my view, whereas others (like you) see everything through the lens of their preferred narrative.
Another fine example of projection by you. Blinders much?
In case of having children, my daughter will be sent to suck cock in China, and my son will clean the pools of her clientsTravel much these days?
Admin: this account is a bot.Do me a favour, put me on your Ignore list. This is an accepted way in this forum to keep it cool.
What great about the 45th is that he has no dogs. Now today two dopers were seen in Kiev celebrating the painter's birthday. Good for them.
Contrary to public belief the transfer of Crimea in 1954 into the Ukrainian SSR was done mainly to construct and administer the North Crimean Canal; no nationalistic ideas were behind the move.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal
What will happen if the states in upper stream of the mighty Colorado River block the water supply to California and other states down the stream? Nonsense, you would say, it would never happen.
So, how the people of Crimea different? Why would anyone in their clear mind block water supply to population, especially when the population is considered to be own citizens? The same asinine mentality prevailed when the Ukrainian government blocked water supply to Donbass region. Donetsk is almost without water for the last year, and the newly constructed pipe is going to be open this month.
What will happen if the states in upper stream of the mighty Colorado River block the water supply to California and other states down the stream? Nonsense, you would say, it would never happen.
So, how the people of Crimea different? Why would anyone in their clear mind block water supply to population, especially when the population is considered to be own citizens? The same asinine mentality prevailed when the Ukrainian government blocked water supply to Donbass region. Donetsk is almost without water for the last year, and the newly constructed pipe is going to be open this month.Only you've conveniently forgotten to mention that the water supply was blocked ONLY after your "little green people" invaded and grabbed the lands that don't belong to them.
In what world is a victim of aggression supposed ("in their clear mind") to supply water to the aggressor?
Wait. . .
Contrary to public belief the transfer of Crimea in 1954 into the Ukrainian SSR was done mainly to construct and administer the North Crimean Canal; no nationalistic ideas were behind the move.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal
What will happen if the states in upper stream of the mighty Colorado River block the water supply to California and other states down the stream? Nonsense, you would say, it would never happen.
So, how the people of Crimea different? Why would anyone in their clear mind block water supply to population, especially when the population is considered to be own citizens? The same asinine mentality prevailed when the Ukrainian government blocked water supply to Donbass region. Donetsk is almost without water for the last year, and the newly constructed pipe is going to be open this month.As the USSR was in the process of dissolution, Ukraine's legislature declared independence TWICE, once in July of 1990 and then again in August of 1991.
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/12/1080205477/history-ukraine-russia
And Russia OFFICIALLY recognized Ukrainian independence in August 1991.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-russia-recognizes-ukrainian-independence-1991-20220224-uptvhapy7rh23lr73a4xreiime-story.html
Ukraine followed up the declaration by holding a referendum vote that encompassed EVERY part of the territory that was universally recognized as the (now former) Ukraine Soviet Socialist Republic.
Here are the voting percentages, and you'll notice the first area on the list is Crimea, and further down you'll see the Donbas regions of Luhansk and Donetsk (both over 80 percent).
https://soviethistory.msu.edu/1991-2/the-end-of-the-soviet-union/the-end-of-the-soviet-union-texts/ukrainian-independence-declaration/
If Russia had any territorial claims to make, or any objection to the referendum being held in Crimea, or the Donbas, that was the time to raise the issue. All the events of 1991 detailed above are conclusive evidence that Crimea, Donbas, and ALL the territory of the Ukraine SSR, were considered part of the newly independent Ukraine. And that fact was officially recognized by Russia, Ukraine itself, and the world at large.
But wait, there's more!
In 1997 two treaties were signed between Ukraine and Russia. One was the "Partition Treaty on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet," and the other was the "Russian-Ukrainian Friendship Treaty" In neither of those treaties did Russia seek to exert a claim on Crimea or any other area.
Two additional points re 1997:
1. As part of the Friendship Treaty, BOTH nations recognized the inviolability of EXISTING borders. And those borders included Crimea + Donbas as part of Ukraine (see 1991).
2. As part of the Black Sea Fleet Status Treaty, by agreeing to pay Ukraine for the lease of the naval base at Sevastopol, Russia explicitly recognized it as sovereign Ukrainian territory. They, Russia, were leasing from the owner, Ukraine.
I could go on, but there's no need. From 1991 the world has recognized that Crimea is part of the territory of Ukraine, and the Donbas as well. Russia itself also recognized this fact from 1991 to 2014, when they decided to invade. But, aside from maybe a couple of rogue states, NO country in the world accepts Russia's annexation of Crimea OR the Donbas. Not China and, IIRC, not even Iran.
Oh, and as far as your "water issues" are concerned, it's none of Russia's fucking business what Ukraine does on its OWN territory. If Russia hadn't invaded, there would be NO water-related issues. So the invader Russkies should fuck off back to Russia where they can go piss in the Volga and drink it. What a lame attempt to justify the unjustifiable! You really are a Putin apologist of the most extremely vile kind.
Class dismissed. Any questions?
Do me a favour, put me on your Ignore list. This is an accepted way in this forum to keep it cool.Rather than ignore, it's the "heap scorn and humiliation on the Putin butt-boy" list.
Kind of a catchy name, don't you think?
What great about the 45th is that he has no dogs. Now today two dopers were seen in Kiev celebrating the painter's birthday. Good for them.The only question is whether he's a Shar-Pei or a Shih-Tzu. I'm leaning toward the second choice, but I could be persuaded otherwise. He is bald and pretty wrinkly, after all.
Contrary to public belief ....Contrary to the beliefs of the RuZZians, no one cares what they think about Crimea, they just want them the fuck out.
Ukraine followed up the declaration by holding a referendum vote that encompassed EVERY part of the territory that was universally recognized as the (now former) Ukraine Soviet Socialist Republic.
Here are the voting percentages, and you'll notice the first area on the list is Crimea, and further down you'll see the Donbas regions of Luhansk and Donetsk (both over 80 percent).
https://soviethistory.msu.edu/1991-2/the-end-of-the-soviet-union/the-end-of-the-soviet-union-texts/ukrainian-independence-declaration/
If Russia had any territorial claims to make, or any objection to the referendum being held in Crimea, or the Donbas, that was the time to raise the issue. All the events of 1991 detailed above are conclusive evidence that Crimea, Donbas, and ALL the territory of the Ukraine SSR, were considered part of the newly independent Ukraine. And that fact was officially recognized by Russia, Ukraine itself, and the world at large.I'm not trying to make excuses for Putin or offer any support to the Russian cause. The reality is permanent Russian control of Crimea is likely still on the table. The Crimean vote cited was a 54% vote to stay in the Ukraine. However, the turnout was anemic relative to the other provinces. Crimea has strong ties to both countries. Any student of history knows that Russia fought an allied army of France, Britain and the Ottoman Empire on Crimean soil. (That's not to say Ukrainians didn't contribute.)
No one knows how a peace settlement will look or how lasting it will be. Perhaps the Ukraine can force another reaffirming vote on the matter in Crimea. However, a vote like this under the aura of open hostility can become very violent and messy.
I'm not sure if the Ukraine decides to fight for Crimea the Russians will end the hostilities under any arrangement.
I'm not trying to make excuses for Putin or offer any support to the Russian cause. The reality is permanent Russian control of Crimea is likely still on the table. The Crimean vote cited was a 54% vote to stay in the Ukraine. However, the turnout was anemic relative to the other provinces. Crimea has strong ties to both countries. Any student of history knows that Russia fought an allied army of France, Britain and the Ottoman Empire on Crimean soil. (That's not to say Ukrainians didn't contribute.)
No one knows how a peace settlement will look or how lasting it will be. Perhaps the Ukraine can force another reaffirming vote on the matter in Crimea. However, a vote like this under the aura of open hostility can become very violent and messy.
I'm not sure if the Ukraine decides to fight for Crimea the Russians will end the hostilities under any arrangement.One of the points of my earlier post was to debunk the bogus narrative that Russia has a legal claim to Crimea. It's clear that they don't, full stop. When the USSR dissolved it split into (IIRC) 15 newly independent countries. That's a shitload of border issues that needed to be resolved and, in the case of Ukraine, those were clearly settled in 1991 and 1997, per the evidence I've already cited.
With respect to referendum insufficiency (or irregularity), I find that argument wholly unpersuasive. As I recall, there were international observers so, as long as standards for fair elections were met, the turnout was what it was and the results were what they were. It was a binary "stay or leave" choice and almost 55% (in Crimea) voted to leave. From 1991 to 1997, Russia had ample opportunity to raise this issue and, to my knowledge, they didn't. The 1997 treaty re the inviolability of the existing borders effectively puts that issue to rest. And it's also noteworthy that not even the Russians are advancing any kind of independence referendum-centric argument.
With respect to the historic connection argument, that's not only unpersuasive but it's flat-out hogwash. Did they fight in Crimea? Sure, so what? How many times has the Alsace-Lorraine region changed hands? How many pieces of European (and elsewhere) territory once belonged to other countries? Hell, by the connection-language-ethnicity argument, Switzerland should be carved up and divided between France, Germany, and Italy. And which parts of the former Austro-Hungarian empire need to be rejiggered? Lots of battles fought, and blood spilled, in those areas.
And, getting back to Russia, they could equally claim that they fought for territory that is now part of the Baltics, or one of the 'Stan countries, etc. In fact, it's that very fear that accounts for the high level of Ukraine support from countries on Russia's western border. At some point lines have to be drawn and, in Ukraine's case, those lines were clearly drawn (and explicitly recognized by Russia and the world) in 1991 and 1997. So, in view of the above facts, I would assert that Ukraine's claim to Crimea is indisputable.
However, as you noted, legal doesn't always = practical. And the conventional methods of militarily retaking Ukraine are definitely daunting and problematic. There is, however, at least one alternative that holds out some promising potential. And it's the strategy laid out by LT. Gen. (ret) Ben Hodges, former commander of US forces in Europe.
https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/04/why-blockading-rather-than-retaking-crimea-might-be.html
If Ukraine mounts an offensive that effectively blocks the land route to Crimea, and knocks out the Kerch Strait bridge, they can make it damn difficult (if not impossible) for Russia to maintain a military presence on the peninsula. See the article for more specifics. But the basic point is that a conventional land campaign isn't necessarily required. How the war develops over the next few months will tell us a lot.
P.S. I highly doubt Ukraine will hold another referendum in Crimea. Why should they? The only country disputing Ukrainian sovereignty is Russia, and they can go fuck themselves. The referendum was held valid from 1991 to 1997 (when Russia recognized the borders), and through the 2014 invasion, and to present day (among the vast majority of countries). Why give in to the endless do-over demands of the losers? Scottish independence lost by 44.7-55.3, and Brexit won by 52-48. Do-overs? Fuhgeddaboudit! You lost, deal with it and move on.
I'm not trying to make excuses for Putin or offer any support to the Russian cause. The reality is permanent Russian control of Crimea is likely still on the table. The Crimean vote cited was a 54% vote to stay in the Ukraine. However, the turnout was anemic relative to the other provinces. Crimea has strong ties to both countries. Any student of history knows that Russia fought an allied army of France, Britain and the Ottoman Empire on Crimean soil. (That's not to say Ukrainians didn't contribute.)
No one knows how a peace settlement will look or how lasting it will be. Perhaps the Ukraine can force another reaffirming vote on the matter in Crimea. However, a vote like this under the aura of open hostility can become very violent and messy.
I'm not sure if the Ukraine decides to fight for Crimea the Russians will end the hostilities under any arrangement.I don't believe Ukraine will be forcing any kind of vote on Crimea. They will retake it if only to devoid Russia an opportunity to launch another attack in the future using the peninsula, as well as to destroy the "habitat" of the Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
It's really not a matter of choice to Ukrainians if they don't want to repeat the same mistakes they made in 2014.
However, as you noted, legal doesn't always = practical. And the conventional methods of militarily retaking Ukraine are definitely daunting and problematic. There is, however, at least one alternative that holds out some promising potential. And it's the strategy laid out by LT. Gen. (ret) Ben Hodges, former commander of US forces in Europe.
https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/04/why-blockading-rather-than-retaking-crimea-might-be.html
If Ukraine mounts an offensive that effectively blocks the land route to Crimea, and knocks out the Kerch Strait bridge, they can make it damn difficult (if not impossible) for Russia to maintain a military presence on the peninsula. See the article for more specifics. But the basic point is that a conventional land campaign isn't necessarily required. How the war develops over the next few months will tell us a lot.
P.S. I highly doubt Ukraine will hold another referendum in Crimea. Why should they? The only country disputing Ukrainian sovereignty is Russia, and they can go fuck themselves. The referendum was held valid from 1991 to 1997 (when Russia recognized the borders), and through the 2014 invasion, and to present day (among the vast majority of countries). Why give in to the endless do-over demands of the losers? Scottish independence lost by 44.7-55.3, and Brexit won by 52-48. Do-overs? Fuhgeddaboudit! You lost, deal with it and move on.Agreed. If Ukraine liberates the mainland south and destroys the bridge, it's game over for the Russians. A great example of how this works is Russia's retreat from the right bank of Kherson Oblast. They fled because the Ukrainians destroyed supply routes. Same strategy may work on Crimea.
DramaFree11
04-22-23, 20:01
I don't believe Ukraine will be forcing any kind of vote on Crimea. They will retake it if only to devoid Russia an opportunity to launch another attack in the future using the peninsula, as well as to destroy the "habitat" of the Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
It's really not a matter of choice to Ukrainians if they don't want to repeat the same mistakes they made in 2014.
Agreed. If Ukraine liberates the mainland south and destroys the bridge, it's game over for the Russians. A great example of how this works is Russia's retreat from the right bank of Kherson Oblast. They fled because the Ukrainians destroyed supply routes. Same strategy may work on Crimea.You guys truly live in a Fantasy world. Ukraine is done. The sooner they figure that out, many lives will be saved, we can move on, and we will avoid World War 3. Sometimes I actually believe this is what you want. You wanted a war, now we all have to deal with the consequences, and Ukraine is being destroyed, but in your liberal world this might be a win.
Ukraine military has out performed every ones expectations, but they are done and the support from their allies is slowing down. If there government was not so corrupt who knows what might have happened, but they always have to cheat, lie and steal. You guys watch CNN and All the other crap networks. The sad part is your actually believe there Crap.
While the war has obviously received the lion's share of recent attention, other significant developments are flying under the radar. One of these is demographics, specifically the negative trends seen in both Russia and China.
https://english.elpais.com/opinion/the-global-observer/2023-04-19/russias-population-shrinks-and-chinas-ages.html
China is obviously dealing with the effects of their one child policy, which is no longer in place. They're struggling to reverse those effects, but that's a topic better addressed in a separate post (and perhaps even in a different forum).
What's more relevant here is the situation Russia is facing. In addition to an already low birthrate, they're experiencing an out-migration of a significant number of men and women, as well as the untimely deaths of military-age males. In fact, the article quotes another publication (The Economist) as saying "A demographic tragedy is unfolding in Russia. Over the past three years the country has lost around two million more people than it would ordinarily have done, as a result of war, disease and exodus. The life expectancy of Russian males aged 15 fell by almost five years, to the same level as in Haiti".
Of course, the Soviets lost millions of men in WW-II, but the USSR was larger than Russia and the birthrate was higher. A low birthrate might possibly be addressed by inward migration, but (IMO) Putin's Russia and Xi's China are not exactly first-choice destinations for most migrants. So, unless things change, China's problems will likely continue along their current course while Russia's problems will very likely accelerate.
One possibility is, since there's an excess of Chinese men over women (one child policy effects), for Russian women to mate with Chinese men. While that might produce more children, it creates a new set of problems. In which country will those children live? Also, if they're half-Russian and half-Chinese, will either country fully accept them? And, if they don't feel fully accepted in Russia or China, what's to keep them from going somewhere else?
A French philosopher (Comte) is quoted as saying "Demography is destiny". That's rather ominous as it's hard to see much in the way of effective solutions on the horizon for Russia or China. BTW, none of this is meant to downplay the demographic challenges facing many Western countries. Those certainly exist, but in many cases they're (at least partially) offset by immigration.
One possibility is, since there's an excess of Chinese men over women (one child policy effects), for Russian women to mate with Chinese men. While that might produce more children, it creates a new set of problems. In which country will those children live? Also, if they're half-Russian and half-Chinese, will either country fully accept them? And, if they don't feel fully accepted in Russia or China, what's to keep them from going somewhere else?Russian girls who would be interested in mating with the Chinese would have an intention to leave stepmother-Russia behind and shut the door behind them. As much as they might get a buyer's remorse later on (because China is not exactly a promised land), their intention would be to relocate to China.
Also I think it was you who reported official Chinese dating commercials on Russian TV. I don't know if China would easily let children of Chinese citizens leave the country.
Today Russia has got her own KKK, namely Kaliningrad Region, Kuril Islands and Krim (Crimea) as the most fortified and strategic regions of the country. Would you expect to cede Hawaii to Chinese, San Diego to Mexico and Chesapeake Bay to, let's say, the British? Nope. How successful would Mexico be in retaking control of Texas should we supply it with tanks, ammunition and finance the conflict? Nonsense, it would never happen. So, how do you think Crimea is different? The thing that had pissed the agencies in the West was the secrecy, the boldness and the swiftness of the 2014 operation which was achieved without even one round shot and almost with complete support of the local population.
The other important distinction was the decision in Moscow to support the region, the administration and the people who opposed the right wing nationalistic coup, but at the same not to extend the same support in other regions of Ukraine, where the opposition and resistance to the coup was ultimately defeated by all known dictatorial means. In the recent interview the Russian President admitted that the country in that time was not ready to offer such support on one hand, and relied on the process of negotiations on the other.
'The Crimea is ours and always will be' - the WWII poster below.
'Ours' meaning of course Russian belonging to the people of Crimea. Ukrainians, Russians, Crimean Tatars, Greeks etc. But not to Germany, Britain, Poland, France, Turkey or any other country.
You guys truly live in a Fantasy world. Ukraine is done. The sooner they figure that out, many lives will be saved, we can move on, and we will avoid World War 3. Sometimes I actually believe this is what you want. You wanted a war, now we all have to deal with the consequences, and Ukraine is being destroyed, but in your liberal world this might be a win.
Ukraine military has out performed every ones expectations, but they are done and the support from their allies is slowing down. If there government was not so corrupt who knows what might have happened, but they always have to cheat, lie and steal. You guys watch CNN and All the other crap networks. The sad part is your actually believe there Crap.You have a preferred narrative that you CHOOSE to believe. And yet you accuse others of the same thing. It's classic projection, nothing more.
You claim Ukraine is done, but you have no factual basis for that statement. Ukraine continues to fight and continues to amass battlefield assets from Western allies.
If Ukraine was truly "done," as you claim, then Russia would have already won (defined as taking and holding additional territory) or would be in the process of visibly winning. There are zero objective facts to support that position.
Not only has Russia been pushed back from territory they previously held, but even their singular push to capture one city (Bakhmut) has languished for almost 10 months.
While I don't have a crystal ball as to the eventual outcome, the CURRENT state of affairs blows your thesis out of the water. You really should take your cracked crystall ball to the repair shop.
P.S. I guess in your preferred fantasy world, you've forgotten that Putin gave the order to start the war. Nobody forced him, and neither Ukraine or NATO posed any credible threat. So, either Putin is somebody's puppet or else he's 100% responsible for starting the war.
P. P.S. Russia is the uber-corrupt kleptocracy of all time. Any corruption that plagued, or plagues, Ukraine is a product of their time in the USSR. It will take years to root out, but membership in the EU is a key motivator and Ukraine is taking positive steps. This isn't optional for them, because survival requires EU (and NATO) membership and anti-corruption measures (real, not window dressing) are required before membership will be considered or granted. Russia, meanwhile, continues in a corrupt death spiral that will end up with them becoming nothing more a larger version of North Korea. An isolated pariah state. Good riddance!
Today Russia has got her own KKK, namely Kaliningrad Region, Kuril Islands and Krim (Crimea) as the most fortified and strategic regions of the country. Would you expect to cede Hawaii to Chinese, San Diego to Mexico and Chesapeake Bay to, let's say, the British? Nope. How successful would Mexico be in retaking control of Texas should we supply it with tanks, ammunition and finance the conflict? Nonsense, it would never happen. So, how do you think Crimea is different? The thing that had pissed the agencies in the West was the secrecy, the boldness and the swiftness of the 2014 operation which was achieved without even one round shot and almost with complete support of the local population.
The other important distinction was the decision in Moscow to support the region, the administration and the people who opposed the right wing nationalistic coup, but at the same not to extend the same support in other regions of Ukraine, where the opposition and resistance to the coup was ultimately defeated by all known dictatorial means. In the recent interview the Russian President admitted that the country in that time was not ready to offer such support on one hand, and relied on the process of negotiations on the other.
'The Crimea is ours and always will be' - the WWII poster below.
'Ours' meaning of course Russian belonging to the people of Crimea. Ukrainians, Russians, Crimean Tatars, Greeks etc. But not to Germany, Britain, Poland, France, Turkey or any other country.A: Because he's a cowardly clown!
I responded directly to your bogus assertions with clear evidence that debunks any so-called claim of Russia over Crimea. The full post isn't very far down the page, so it's obvious that you chose to ignore, rather than address it. That's a clear mark of cowardice AND a tacit admission that you're unable to refute the facts presented. As to those facts, here's a short excerpt:
Russia OFFICIALLY recognized Ukrainian independence in August 1991.
If Russia had any territorial claims to make, or any objection to the referendum being held in Crimea, or the Donbas, that was the time to raise the issue. All the events of 1991 detailed above are conclusive evidence that Crimea, Donbas, and ALL the territory of the Ukraine SSR, were considered part of the newly independent Ukraine. And that fact was officially recognized by Russia, Ukraine itself, and the world at large.
In 1997 two treaties were signed between Ukraine and Russia. One was the "Partition Treaty on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet," and the other was the "Russian-Ukrainian Friendship Treaty" In neither of those treaties did Russia seek to exert a claim on Crimea or any other area.
Two additional points re 1997:
1. As part of the Friendship Treaty, BOTH nations recognized the inviolability of EXISTING borders. And those borders included Crimea + Donbas as part of Ukraine (see 1991).
2. As part of the Black Sea Fleet Status Treaty, by agreeing to pay Ukraine for the lease of the naval base at Sevastopol, Russia explicitly recognized it as sovereign Ukrainian territory. They, Russia, were leasing from the owner, Ukraine.
I could go on, but there's no need.All the source links are contained in my original post. But you won't check them, or even acknowledge them, because you've clearly shown your cowardly stripes.
Here's an interesting question I'm sure the forum would find fascinating: Are you the kind of coward who, when confronted, pisses himself in public? Or are you the kind of coward who slinks off to his hole and pisses himself in private?
I'm guessing you're the second kind. Maybe we should start a forum poll, eh? Or maybe it doesn't even matter, 'cause either way you're still a cowardly self-pisser.
You guys truly live in a Fantasy world. Ukraine is done. The sooner they figure that out, many lives will be saved, we can move on, and we will avoid World War 3. Sometimes I actually believe this is what you want. You wanted a war, now we all have to deal with the consequences, and Ukraine is being destroyed, but in your liberal world this might be a win.
Ukraine military has out performed every ones expectations, but they are done and the support from their allies is slowing down. If there government was not so corrupt who knows what might have happened, but they always have to cheat, lie and steal. You guys watch CNN and All the other crap networks. The sad part is your actually believe there Crap.We are certainly not listening to you. The fact is Russia has been on the offensive for 3 months and achieved nothing. Ukraine can probably take back half of Donbass with 10 Leopards given the Russians have murdered most of their own forces.
DramaFree11
04-23-23, 16:56
We are certainly not listening to you. The fact is Russia has been on the offensive for 3 months and achieved nothing. Ukraine can probably take back half of Donbass with 10 Leopards given the Russians have murdered most of their own forces.You will have no military left in 10 months. You guys truly are delusional.
Russian girls who would be interested in mating with the Chinese would have an intention to leave stepmother-Russia behind and shut the door behind them. As much as they might get a buyer's remorse later on (because China is not exactly a promised land), their intention would be to relocate to China.
Also I think it was you who reported official Chinese dating commercials on Russian TV. I don't know if China would easily let children of Chinese citizens leave the country.Both Russians and Chinese view themselves as superior to other races and ethnicities, so I'm guessing any pairing could be a real shit show!
And, no matter the country in which the parents decided to settle, any children would be "half-breeds," with all the negatives that inevitably accompany that status. The problem with ubermenschen is that they place a high value on the purity of the bloodline, which doesn't make for a hospitable attitude toward mutts.
Which means, if the parents (or parent) moves to a third country (assuming they can), then they won't be doing anything to help either Russia's or China's demographic problem. Same thing if the child leaves when they're older and on their own. I guess it's an occupational hazard for any "Master Race" that they either eliminate or alienate any who don't meet their purity standards.
You will have no military left in 10 months. You guys truly are delusional.Talk about delusional. You have none left now, just prisoners with HIV forced to fight to get some meds.
You will have no military left in 10 months. You guys truly are delusional.Wasn't true then, and isn't true now. Once again, zero facts to back up your assertion. You might have better luck if you stick to predictions about the CDMX mongering scene.
BTW, whenever I see or hear any of those so-called experts who made wrong predictions, and they haven't acknowledged their mistakes, I automatically flag them as unserious posers. No one is infallible, but anyone who cares about the truth should have the intellectual integrity to admit past mistakes.
An honest pundit or expert would detail the reasoning behind the wrong prediction and then move forward to explain how their analysis has evolved. Shameless narrative-mongers and self-promoters will never do that.
Both Russians and Chinese view themselves as superior to other races and ethnicities, so I'm guessing any pairing could be a real shit show!True. Of theses two ethnicities, however, only the Chinese have at least some historical evidence to back up that claim (please take it as half joke -- I'm the last person to support any superior race theory).
And, no matter the country in which the parents decided to settle, any children would be "half-breeds," with all the negatives that inevitably accompany that status. The problem with ubermenschen is that they place a high value on the purity of the bloodline, which doesn't make for a hospitable attitude toward mutts.Again, totally true. Half-breed kids will always suffer growing up in either country. That's not even debatable.
Which means, if the parents (or parent) moves to a third country (assuming they can), then they won't be doing anything to help either Russia's or China's demographic problem. Same thing if the child leaves when they're older and on their own. I guess it's an occupational hazard for any "Master Race" that they either eliminate or alienate any who don't meet their purity standards.Yes, but "assuming they can" is a big qualification. China might be betting on keeping these kids in China when they grow up, which, for a totalitarian regime, is not that far-fetched come to think about it. But what's really going to happen 20-30 years from now is a crapshoot anyway.
Today Russia has got her own KKK...An attempt was made here, poor little orc.
We are certainly not listening to you. The fact is Russia has been on the offensive for 3 months and achieved nothing. Ukraine can probably take back half of Donbass with 10 Leopards given the Russians have murdered most of their own forces.Pretty much OSINT: Only this year half a million contract soldiers are going to join Russian military. 1600 tanks, new and taken from conservation are going to be on a front line, 2 new repair tank plants built and mobile repair facilities expanded closer to to the lines of engagement. Only in and around Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) the daily losses for AFU for the last 3 months were appr. 16,000 dead per month plus injured. These are all horrific numbers. The team incentives for each modern Western tank with a private funds added in reach $200,000 and specially trained and equipped teams are standing by. This is highly non-symmetrical conflict: Ukraine would need a foreign army and there are no takers. Just call the guys below and see if they answer your call:
You will have no military left in 10 months. You guys truly are delusional.Aren't you the guy who repeatedly fell for Ukrainian scammers and couldn't get laid in pussy heaven?
Pretty much OSINT: Only this year half a million contract soldiers are going to join Russian military. 1600 tanks, new and taken from conservation are going to be on a front line, 2 new repair tank plants built and mobile repair facilities expanded closer to to the lines of engagement. Only in and around Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) the daily losses for AFU for the last 3 months were appr. 16,000 dead per month plus injured. These are all horrific numbers. The team incentives for each modern Western tank with a private funds added in reach $200,000 and specially trained and equipped teams are standing by. This is highly non-symmetrical conflict: Ukraine would need a foreign army and there are no takers. Just call the guys below and see if they answer your call:It's telling that the only links you post are to inane videos, or stupid cartoons. You rattle off BS and pretend there's some kind of factual basis or authoritative source behind it. It's my guess that everything you post comes straight from the Kremlin's preferred propaganda sources. I'm sure you regularly suck at the tit of RT, and similar Putin mouthpieces. And that's perfectly fine, as you're free to believe whatever deluded BS you want.
But throwing out supposed "data" and "information," while refusing to reveal your sources, is intellectually dishonest. Nobody is going to take your word for anything, eapecially since you've firmly cemented your reputation as a Putin butt-boy. So it's the height of hilarity to watch you try to pretend that you actually care about objective fact and truth.
Let's take your tank production "figures," as just one example. Here's a source that provides information that pretty much blows your narrative out of the water:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/19/whats-perfectly-round-made-of-metal-and-keeping-russia-from-replacing-the-2000-tanks-its-lost-in-ukraine/
The article starts by talking about the effect of sanctions on things like optical systems for tanks, then it moves on to the more mundane (yet essential) topic of ball bearings.
"But optics aren't the only thing in short supply in the Russian armored vehicle industry. The Russians also are desperately short of ball-bearings, which they used to get from the United States and Europe before the United States and Europe tightened their sanctions on Russian industry.
A new study from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC confirmed what independent analysts have been saying for months. Tanks and other modern armored vehicles need a lot of ball-bearings. And Russia doesn't have enough bearings to maintain steady production of new vehicles".
"The ball-bearing problem might be even harder for Moscow to solve. Even after trading Sosna-Us for 1 PN96 MT-02's, Uralvagonzavod and Omsktransmash still were at an impasse. Workers were building or restoring most of a tank, then running out of parts.
It's for that reason that Russia has struggled to make good the 2,000 or more tanks it has lost in 14 months of hard fighting in Ukraine. Russian forces need at least 150 new or restored tanks a month just to maintain their front-line strength".
"Careful analysis of activity at Uralvagonzavod and Omsktransmash strongly hints the factories every month are shipping out just a few dozen modern-ish tanks: either new-build T-72 BM3's or T-90 Ms or reconditioned T-72's, T-80's and T-90's that technicians have pulled out of long-term storage.
Which is why the Russians are traveling back in time, technologically speaking, and reactivating 1960's-vintage T-62's and 1950's-vintage T-55's that have been moldering in storage since the 1980's".
So there you have it. A source that explains why the Russians have no balls (bearings, that is), and explains what it means for ACTUAL tank production, which is different from the propaganda coming out of the pro-Russia outlets.
So here's a direct challenge: Do you have the balls to post the actual sources of your alleged facts? Or are you as much of a eunuch as the Russian tank industry?
HessenStud
04-24-23, 08:58
Both Russians and Chinese view themselves as superior to other races and ethnicities, so I'm guessing any pairing could be a real shit show!Just look around how many Russian and Chinese women are working as Prostitute (Masseuse) in Europe and American and eager to marry a white men, and how many Americans or G7's women are working in sex industry in Russian or China ((legally or illegally), almost zero. If you think you are superior, would you like others dig all your holes?
Just look around how many Russian and Chinese women are working as Prostitute (Masseuse) in Europe and American and eager to marry a white men, and how many Americans or G7's women are working in sex industry in Russian or China ((legally or illegally), almost zero. If you think you are superior, would you like others dig all your holes?Based on your reasoning white supremacist idiots in the states would never be found living in run down trailer parks but they often are. False pride is often all someone has, and in that case they'll cling to it with a death grip. National, racial or ethnic pride can certainly co-exist with some individuals of the same seeking better economic opportunities elsewhere. Your whole angle is a laughable non-sequitur.
https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Non-Sequitur
Monger forums truly win the day for the volume of stupid remarks found. Sports forums are a close second.
Elvis 2008
04-24-23, 15:24
However, in stark contrast to many (including you), I have the ability to keep my personal opinions separate from my observations with respect to objective fact (s). So, when I post about a specific piece of evidence, or a specific set of facts, I do my best to stay within the parameters those facts delineate. Also, I am always happy and ready to engage in fact-based debates and discussions. And I've even challenged the narrative-mongers to such debates. The response has either been more narrative or, more often (wait for it), nothing but crickets.
I fully understand what confirmation bias is, and I studiously avoid it. I let the facts shape my view, whereas others (like you) see everything through the lens of their preferred narrative.
Another fine example of projection by you. Blinders much?You are so clueless it hurts. Your ego is the size of a mountain as you pat yourself on the back for facts and then are clueless to as what they really are.
Seymour Hersh beaks the story on the Nordstream pipeline bombing. It goes into meticulous detail. If even one fact of the report is wrong, they can toss the whole thing, so is that what the government does? No, they do exactly what you would expect if all the facts are correct. They assert he has one source, they bring up times he was wrong in the past, and they make him and not the facts the issue upon which people judge.
And let's get real. You did not read Hersh's story. You just read the bullshit "fact checkers" story.
The next thing to do is the classic Democratic douche move and slam me as a Tucker Carlson listening, closed minded right winger. Only issue with that is Hersh is anything but a right winger. He is as liberal as they come. Still, anyone telling truth to the progressive narrative is a right winger these days.
Then there is this kid Jack Teixeira leaking documents about the Ukraine war. He is arrested and of course, those in the military industrial complex call the information he was releasing disinformation and misinformation but once again they do not give any specifics as to what he released was wrong. So if someone states facts harmful to the government narrative, and the government does not state they are untrue specifically, they probably are true.
Quite frankly, I found the whole story to be so outrageous that I believed it to be true. Dramfrree said this guy was a CIA plant, but I did not see any of the information Teixeira released to be helpful to the CIA. I put that at low odds around 10%.
Well, now it turns out Teixeira was leaking information about the war since it began, and his information was vey accurate. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/airmans-leaks-started-just-48-hours-after-russia-invaded-ukraine.
When you call Russians orcs, JM, you are advertising your cognitive bias. You swallowed whole that absolutely idiotic notion that because Russian ships were near Nordstream, the Russians blew up said pipeline. I would say that is the dumbest thing I have ever heard, but that got topped.
"In what sounds like it might just be a comically absurd attempt to portray Teixeira as a Russian asset, prosecutors this filed new information with the court, noting that he once shot a vintage Soviet pistol. " At this point, I may as well be a Russian agent because I once had a shot of Stolichnaya vodka.
So now that we or rather I know that what Teixeira released was 99+% true it begs the question what is the USA doing in Ukraine. This fight for Democracy crap always was nonsense. The second part was to weaken Russia but for what? They do not seem all that strong to begin with. The DOD inflating Russian military strength to get money has been going for 50+ years.
Well, we already know that Biden has lined his family's pockets with American aid packages before, but this war is on a scale 100 X larger than Hunter and Burisma. It also shows me the dumb Dems still believe in Russiagate and think weakening Putin will help them in 2024.
From the Wapo comments section:
"BREAKING NEWS! On today's Fox News announcement, Vladimir Putin has ordered all Russian flags to be lowered at half mast. " logcabin 1836.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2023/04/24/tucker-carlson-leaves-fox-news/
One of the points of my earlier post was to debunk the bogus narrative that Russia has a legal claim to Crimea. It's clear that they don't, full stop. When the USSR dissolved it split into (IIRC) 15 newly independent countries. That's a shitload of border issues that needed to be resolved and, in the case of Ukraine, those were clearly settled in 1991 and 1997, per the evidence I've already cited.
With respect to referendum insufficiency (or irregularity), I find that argument wholly unpersuasive. As I recall, there were international observers so, as long as standards for fair elections were met, the turnout was what it was and the results were what they were. It was a binary "stay or leave" choice and almost 55% (in Crimea) voted to leave. From 1991 to 1997, Russia had ample opportunity to raise this issue and, to my knowledge, they didn't. The 1997 treaty re the inviolability of the existing borders effectively puts that issue to rest. And it's also noteworthy that not even the Russians are advancing any kind of independence referendum-centric argument.
With respect to the historic connection argument, that's not only unpersuasive but it's flat-out hogwash. Did they fight in Crimea? Sure, so what? How many times has the Alsace-Lorraine region changed hands? How many pieces of European (and elsewhere) territory once belonged to other countries? Hell, by the connection-language-ethnicity argument, Switzerland should be carved up and divided between France, Germany, and Italy. And which parts of the former Austro-Hungarian empire need to be rejiggered? Lots of battles fought, and blood spilled, in those areas..I think your missing the bigger picture in my post. It's very possible there will be a political settlement before there is a sweeping Ukrainian military victory. That's where my perspective on Crimea originates. As I have said before, the peace negotiations might not give the Ukraine everything they had hoped. A political settlement could have some messy elements including persistent tension.
No offense, but you seem to take the Ukraine War a bit too personally. One doesn't necessarily have to be Ukrainian to hold a personal animosity towards Russia.
Just look around how many Russian and Chinese women are working as Prostitute (Masseuse) in Europe and American and eager to marry a white men, and how many Americans or G7's women are working in sex industry in Russian or China ((legally or illegally), almost zero. If you think you are superior, would you like others dig all your holes?You're barking up the wrong tree. Jmsuttr said they "view themselves as superior," not that they are. And that's true. They might think they're superior, but delusional is what they really are.
Just read carefully before picking up a fight.
A new study from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC confirmed what independent analysts have been saying for months. Tanks and other modern armored vehicles need a lot of ball-bearings. And Russia doesn't have enough bearings to maintain steady production of new vehicles".
"The ball-bearing problem might be even harder for Moscow to solve. Even after trading Sosna-Us for 1 PN96 MT-02's, Uralvagonzavod and Omsktransmash still were at an impasse. Workers were building or restoring most of a tank, then running out of parts.
It's for that reason that Russia has struggled to make good the 2,000 or more tanks it has lost in 14 months of hard fighting in Ukraine. Russian forces need at least 150 new or restored tanks a month just to maintain their front-line strength".
"Careful analysis of activity at Uralvagonzavod and Omsktransmash strongly hints the factories every month are shipping out just a few dozen modern-ish tanks: either new-build T-72 BM3's or T-90 Ms or reconditioned T-72's, T-80's and T-90's that technicians have pulled out of long-term storage.
Which is why the Russians are traveling back in time, technologically speaking, and reactivating 1960's-vintage T-62's and 1950's-vintage T-55's that have been moldering in storage since the 1980's".Next step is T34's from museums and memorial sites.
Seymour Hersh beaks the story on the Nordstream pipeline bombing. It goes into meticulous detail.Detail is not the issue. The issue is the use of a single, unverified (and unverifiable) source. Others have certainly used anonymous sources, but that usually happens in the context of a media organization in which there are checks and balances. That usually means, at a minimum, that the source is disclosed internally (to editors, etc.) and other internal verification efforts take place.
Here's one example of guidelines re the responsible use of anonymous sources:
https://www.ap.org/about/news-values-and-principles/telling-the-story/anonymous-sources
"Under AP's rules, material from anonymous sources may be used only if:
1. The material is information and not opinion or speculation, and is vital to the report.
2. The information is not available except under the conditions of anonymity imposed by the source.
3. The source is reliable, and in a position to have direct knowledge of the information.
Reporters who intend to use material from anonymous sources must get approval from their news manager before sending the story to the desk. The manager is responsible for vetting the material and making sure it meets AP guidelines. The manager must know the identity of the source, and is obligated, like the reporter, to keep the source's identity confidential. Only after they are assured that the source material has been vetted by a manager should editors and producers allow it to be used".
Q: Why would Hersh publish his NordStream piece on his personal substack, rather than in any number of publications with wide circulation that would certainly be willing to run (and pay handsomely for) the story?
A: It's certainly not inappropriate to point out that at least one possible reason (the one most relevant to me) is that it avoided any double-checking or verification requirements.
While verifiable facts may not matter to you, they are the crux of the matter to me. I've gone on record in this forum as saying that I'm reserving judgment until further VERIFIABLE facts come to light. Therefore, not just with respect to Hersh, ANY story, published by ANYONE, that consists entirely of unverifiable information isn't worth my time.
Also, with respect to Hersh's personal credibility, unless you're a completely gullible idiot the credibility of anyone claiming to have important information should always be checked. Those who piss and moan about challenges to Hersh's credibility are basically saying that unverified information should simply be taken at face value, especially if it fits into a popular (for some) narrative.
Because Hersh's story doesn't even meet minimum (fact-based) standards for my attention, I haven't spent much time on the issue of his credibility. I did see one observation that I thought was both relevant and amusing. The observation came from someone who read both the NordStream story and Hersh's previous story about the raid on Osama bin Laden. Here it is (everyone can read and decide for themselves):
"Something I didn't notice before but now seems glaring. When Hersh wildly mischaracterized the first JSOC raid after 9/11, he quoted a source calling it a "goat fuck".
What did he quote his source saying about purported Nord Stream attack planning? A "goat fuck".
"Seems a smidge too good to be true that, TWO DECADES APART, Hersh's sources would use this SAME VIVID PHRASE to describe these two operations (in both cases attributing it to people involved who the source heard it from). Unless they're, you know, the same person" (emphasis added).
https://twitter.com/wesleysmorgan/status/1626359040652484608
If that observation is incorrect, feel free to post a factual rebuttal. If, however, that observation is correct, it gives rise to serious credibility questions.
The next thing to do is the classic Democratic douche move and slam me as a Tucker Carlson listening, closed minded right winger.I don't give a fuck who you listen to. If Carlson, or Hersh, or Bozo the Clown, present facts that can be verified, let them be put on the table for examination and challenge. If not, then they're spewing nothing more than narrative and white noise.
Jack Teixeira leaking documents about the Ukraine war. More white noise, IMO. Color me unsurprised that the US has done questionable or bad shit to Russia. It's been that way since (at least) the Cold War. And Russia has done it's share of bad shit to the US. And color me unsurprised that the US spies on allies. Espionage ain't tiddly-winks, and all the players spy on all the other players.
But, even if every single word is true (as yet undetermined), it doesn't change the salient and determinative fact that Putin CHOSE to launch a war of aggression. As I've detailed in many prior posts, he was in a position of strength and neither Ukraine nor NATO posed a credible threat. He's attempting to conquer all, or parts, of Ukraine, which makes him the aggressor and Ukraine the victim. And that's the basis for my support for Ukraine. They have an absolute and unqualified moral right to defend their lives and their very existence as an independent nation.
When you call Russians orcs, JM, you are advertising your cognitive bias.What I'm advertising is my contempt and pure hatred of anyone who would invade a sovereign nation and in the process commit unspeakable atrocities. And Russia has shown that depraved brutality is a systemic feature of their military, not simply "one off" individual events. Rape, torture chambers, mass civilian graves, kidnapping of children, and the list goes on. Any one of these is worthy of the Orc label.
Unlike you, I never allow my personal feelings to cloud my view, and evaluation, of the facts. Again, I challenge you rebut any of the facts I've set forth. Narratives are a dime a dozen, but only true facts can cut through the noise.
You swallowed whole that absolutely idiotic notion that because Russian ships were near Nordstream, the Russians blew up said pipeline.Nope, haven't swallowed anything. Either you're reading-challenged, or else you've chosen to willfully ignore that I've clearly stated that I'm reserving judgment until more facts come to light. My purpose in posting about the Danish government having photos of Russian ships in the NordStream area was simply to point out that alternative theories exist. In fact, in that post I noted that there are at least 4-5 possible explanations.
Unlike you, I refuse to swallow anyone's unsupported narrative. Convince me with real and verifiable facts, full stop. Those who offer anything less can go fuck (or goat fuck) themselves.
Just look around how many Russian and Chinese women are working as Prostitute (Masseuse) in Europe and American and eager to marry a white men, and how many Americans or G7's women are working in sex industry in Russian or China ((legally or illegally), almost zero. If you think you are superior, would you like others dig all your holes?About China:
("China's superiority complex must be carefully managed," from the South China Morning Post).
https://12ft.io/proxy?&q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.scmp.com%2Fcomment%2Finsight-opinion%2Farticle%2F1723741%2Fchinas-superiority-complex-must-be-carefully-managed
"In modern China's security dealings, one notion is gradually coming to the fore: that the imperiousness that once dictated ancient China's policies seems to be manifesting itself once more in the present day.
For all but the most recent 200 of the last 2,000 years. Its "sick man of Asia" period. China has lived up its self-proclaimed "Middle Kingdom" title: a country that saw itself as the centre of the world by virtue of its superiority in economic production and a perceived divine entitlement to universal rule".
Divine entitlement to universal rule? That sounds rather superior to me. When China looks at you, it doesn't see an equal, it sees a (future) subject. And there are plenty of articles out there that detail the attitudes of the ruling Han elite with respect to other races, countries, and their own minorities. A simple web search will turn up pages of results for anyone who takes the time to look.
About Russia:
(Opinion piece by Russian author re Neo-Stalinism, aka Putinism).
https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/why-putin-must-be-defeated/
"It was Nazi Germany's claim of racial superiority and the Stalinist Soviet Union's claim of ideological superiority that underpinned their attacks on other nations. Poland, viewed as inferior by both, was invaded and carved up by the two powers during the Second World War in accordance with the infamous 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, named for the Russian and German foreign ministers. The claim of superiority of values and of national heritage (the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union) is a key to understanding the war crimes and genocidal nature of Russia's war on Ukraine today. To Putin, all means are justified in dealing with inferior people, who should be either forced into submission or eliminated".
(Author's bio: "Andrei Kozyrev is an author and former politician who was the Russian Federation's first foreign minister. He was twice elected to the State Duma, where he served from 1994 to 2000. More recently, he was a distinguished fellow at the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute).
Similar to Chinese attitudes, Russia sees non-Russians as inferiors, not equals. And there are plenty of articles out there that detail the attitudes of the (Moscow-St. Petersburg based) Russian elite, with respect to other races, countries, and their own minorities. A simple web search will turn up pages of results for anyone who takes the time to look.
BTW, every society has those, like prostitutes, who inhabit the fringes of society. It's a rather bizarre metric to use those fringe segments to arrive at conclusions about the elites who control that society. For any of the examples you cited, if they had decent opportunities within their own country it's very likely they wouldn't be seeking outside prospects.
Have you ever had a serious (not mongering related) conversation with a Russian woman? I dated one (from Moscow) for several years. Not only did she feel that everything about Russia was superior to the US, she felt the same way about Moscow vs other parts of Russia. She had been married to a prominent Russian businessman but, after a nasty divorce, her prospects inside Russia evaporated.
That was just a personal anecdote, of course, but it's consistent with the other info I posted. Here's a thought: If you ever get the chance, ask a Russian woman about Pushkin, or some other cultural figure, and then sit back and prepare to be overwhelmed. Pro tip: Don't do this if you're paying by the hour.
Oh, and if either Russia or China ever take over the country in which you're living, you'll be digging the holes.
DramaFree11
04-24-23, 22:28
I think your missing the bigger picture in my post. It's very possible there will be a political settlement before there is a sweeping Ukrainian military victory. That's where my perspective on Crimea originates. As I have said before, the peace negotiations might not give the Ukraine everything they had hoped. A political settlement could have some messy elements including persistent tension.
No offense, but you seem to take the Ukraine War a bit too personally. One doesn't necessarily have to be Ukrainian to hold a personal animosity towards Russia.They should have been negotiating, from a the beginning. This will end horribly for the Ukraine people and the longer this drags on the worse it will be for all parties, especially Ukraine, they are being destroyed.
I think your missing the bigger picture in my post. It's very possible there will be a political settlement before there is a sweeping Ukrainian military victory. That's where my perspective on Crimea originates. As I have said before, the peace negotiations might not give the Ukraine everything they had hoped. A political settlement could have some messy elements including persistent tension.
No offense, but you seem to take the Ukraine War a bit too personally. One doesn't necessarily have to be Ukrainian to hold a personal animosity towards Russia.My assessment of the facts of the situation, in either the battlefield or geopolitical arenas, is completely separate from my visceral reaction and condemnation of the horrors that Russia has perpetrated, and continues to perpetrate.
Regarding the "bigger picture," speculation (yours or mine) about possible outcomes is still nothing more than pure speculation. With respect to Crimea, my reason for posting was to debunk the demonstrably false "Crimea belongs to Russia" narrative. I laid out a set of facts and I'm happy to debate same with anyone.
On the moral plane, however, it's troubling to see some in this forum reacting as though this is some kind of video game, or some kind of abstract construct. Does the beheading of an unarmed prisoner, while they're still alive, need to happen in front of your nose for you to feel outrage? What about execution by sledgehammer? And does the ripping of children from their parents only bother you if it happens to your own family or friends?
I understand that war is brutal, and that some atrocities will inevitably happen, but Russia is waging the kind of primitive, scorched-earth, indiscriminate torture and killing campaign that harks back to the Middle Ages. These aren't individual, isolated instances, rather they're calculated and systematic. Russia isn't waging war because they have no choice, I would assert they're waging war because there's a societal acceptance and embrace of violence to get what they want.
I totally get that this is an anonymous fuckboard, but it's troubling to witness the degree of callousness that some exhibit. I would argue that moral outrage is not only warranted, but demanded. I would feel personal animosity toward any group of murderous, raping, kidnapping thugs, whether they were rampaging in my own neighborhood or not.
So, with respect to factual arguments and scenarios, I'm happy to discuss and debate with all comers, including you. But, with respect to your opinion about how I feel, or should feel, I'd invite you (and others) to take a long look in the moral mirror.
Elvis 2008
04-24-23, 23:08
No offense, but you seem to take the Ukraine War a bit too personally. One doesn't necessarily have to be Ukrainian to hold a personal animosity towards Russia.Exactly. I liken this to Biden challenging a known bully in the bar and the bully punching both him and his Ukrainian friend in the nose. I am going to be more mad at Biden because he is supposed to represent me. Of course, the bully is more morally repugnant, but he is not my guy. With my guy, I am going to ask, "Why did you provoke him? That was stupid. ".
The whole bad guy, good guy narrative that is being sold is a farce. If I am upset with what Biden, does that automatically make me a Putin lover? Hell no.
They should have been negotiating, from a the beginning. This will end horribly for the Ukraine people and the longer this drags on the worse it will be for all parties, especially Ukraine, they are being destroyed.Ukraine will most likely be the beneficiary of a post-war reconstruction program. And they will also likely become a full member of the EU. OTOH, Russia's future may well look something like North Korea's, an isolated pariah state. Or perhaps a Chinese vassal state.
BTW, how do you negotiate with an enemy who intends your complete extinction? Or with an enemy who violates "pieces of paper" whenever it suits them? Since Ukraine sincerely believes they're fighting, not just for territory, but for their very existence, who can blame them for committing to fight to the end? The war could end in a moment, Russia just needs to pack up and go home. If Ukraine stops fighting, they'll be extinguished as a country and as a people.
Exactly. I liken this to Biden challenging a known bully in the bar and the bully punching both him and his Ukrainian friend in the nose. I am going to be more mad at Biden because he is supposed to represent me. Of course, the bully is more morally repugnant, but he is not my guy. With my guy, I am going to ask, "Why did you provoke him? That was stupid. ".
The whole bad guy, good guy narrative that is being sold is a farce. If I am upset with what Biden, does that automatically make me a Putin lover? Hell no.Putin threw the first punch, that makes him the aggressor. Prior to the invasion, Russia was a strong country (not so much now).
Ukraine could never, and would never, throw the first punch, because they would have been crushed (and no one would have helped them).
NATO could never, and would never, throw the first punch, for different reasons. NATO is a) a defensive alliance, and; b) consists of 30 (now 31) nations that would need to agree, and; c) had (and has) member countries that are on good terms with Russia and would veto any first punch.
Fuck Biden, Fuck Zelensky, and Fuck Putin. You don't have to love or hate any of them, on a personal basis, in order to call a spade a spade. Russia is indisputably the aggressor. They had many geopolitical cards they could have played in order to resolve any grievances, real or perceived. They chose to launch a military invasion. They can claim they were "provoked" as much as they want, but the facts don't support that narrative.
Try this analogy on for size: Ukraine is the ex-wife who, after getting a finalized divorce, just wants to be left alone. Russia is the bitter ex-husband who feels she still belongs to him and, if he can't have her, he's determined to fuck up her life and maybe even kill her.
Taking that analogy, anyone who talked to the bitter ex-husband would get an earful of alleged provocations. Doesn't make them true, does it?
Disclaimer: This is reportedly a list of 39 questions posed to Russian authorities by Igor Girkin's (Russian ultra-nationalist) Angry Patriots Club. I'm posting it purely for the purpose of pulling back the curtain to look at what the ultra-nationalists are pissed about.
Again, this is not an endorsement, or any kind of agreement, or any kind of admission that any of the content is even true. This appears to be taken directly from that organization's Telegram channel and, if that's the case, it's like listening at the window while your neighbors are arguing amongst themselves.
https://telegra-ph.translate.goog/Voprosy-KRP-04-24?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Read and decide for yourselves. IMO, Girkin either has some powerful protectors or he'll end up in a gulag soon, or worse. This is clearly pro-Russia, which makes the criticisms even more damning.
P.S. I tested the link and it worked for me. Depending on the speed of your connection or device, it might take a minute before the English translation appears.
My assessment of the facts of the situation, in either the battlefield or geopolitical arenas, is completely separate from my visceral reaction and condemnation of the horrors that Russia has perpetrated, and continues to perpetrate.
Regarding the "bigger picture," speculation (yours or mine) about possible outcomes is still nothing more than pure speculation. With respect to Crimea, my reason for posting was to debunk the demonstrably false "Crimea belongs to Russia" narrative. I laid out a set of facts and I'm happy to debate same with anyone.
On the moral plane, however, it's troubling to see some in this forum reacting as though this is some kind of video game, or some kind of abstract construct. Does the beheading of an unarmed prisoner, while they're still alive, need to happen in front of your nose for you to feel outrage? What about execution by sledgehammer? And does the ripping of children from their parents only bother you if it happens to your own family or friends?
I understand that war is brutal, and that some atrocities will inevitably happen, but Russia is waging the kind of primitive, scorched-earth, indiscriminate torture and killing campaign that harks back to the Middle Ages. These aren't individual, isolated instances, rather they're calculated and systematic. Russia isn't waging war because they have no choice, I would assert they're waging war because there's a societal acceptance and embrace of violence to get what they want.
I totally get that this is an anonymous fuckboard, but it's troubling to witness the degree of callousness that some exhibit. I would argue that moral outrage is not only warranted, but demanded. I would feel personal animosity toward any group of murderous, raping, kidnapping thugs, whether they were rampaging in my own neighborhood or not.
So, with respect to factual arguments and scenarios, I'm happy to discuss and debate with all comers, including you. But, with respect to your opinion about how I feel, or should feel, I'd invite you (and others) to take a long look in the moral mirror.You explained the dilemma of Western foreign policy. How much power and force do we expend trying to combat immoral and corrupt regimes around the world?
I don't know what the end for the Ukrainian conflict looks like. I just don't know if it looks like the picture you have painted. We might have moved back into a strategy of containment in Eastern Europe and the Pacific Rim. It's not inspiring. It's not brave. It's just realpolitik.
Elvis 2008
04-25-23, 06:23
Detail is not the issue..Of course, it is. What did Hersch say that was wrong?
The issue is the use of a single, unverified (and unverifiable) source.When Hersh was asked if he had one source, he responded, "I do not give up my sources. " Got that? Pleural. So you take the accusation as fact because that is what you want to believe.
In truth, if you read Hersh's story, it is hard to fathom he had only one source.
While verifiable facts may not matter to you, they are the crux of the matter to me.Absolutely not. You do not get to single handedly judge Hersch without looking at his facts. You did not read what he write nor dispute what he wrote. You just swallowed the fact checkers bullshit story whole.
And then you cite the AP code. LOL. You think after all the twitter files, Russiagate, Covid, the vaccines, and the latest Hunter Biden fiasco that the AP gets the facts right? Give me a fucking break.
Every single fact you cite fits your narrative. I do not dispute the fact that Russian ships were near the pipeline. What I dispute is how anyone with a brain could take that fact and compare it to Hersh's detailed writing and say, "The Russians may have done it" like you did. As far as you go, any theory is acceptable including the pipeline being blown up by space monkeys. Shit, Biden himself said he was going to take out the pipeline. You are like, "Well, gee, duh, just because Biden said he would take out the pipeline is not proof he did it. ".
Peter Zeihan has said ad nauseam that this war is "Russia's to lose" even when he has chronicled the victories Ukraine has enjoyed. What he has said jives totally with the documents Jack Teixeira leaked. It showed the Russians had a huge advantage in the war and were grossly incompetent with how they managed their resources. Zeihan said this is normal for the Russians. They are incompetent in the early phase of a war and get better and better.
What bugs me about you is you are so gung ho war the very notion that the Ukrainians could lose has not even entered your head, and it could easily have happened and probably should have happened.
You are saying "Well, no one knows what could happen", but the possibility Russia could take all of Ukraine does not seem to register with you. And when you say that anything could happen, you really are not considering nuclear war. Because if you and the people spinning the narrative you believe in really felt like those things were possible, this war would have been over with yesterday.
Quote:
Having said "get three coffins ready" earlier.
Joe: My mistake. Four coffins. - A Fistful of Dollars (1964).
- a fake add by a funeral home in Kiev:
Exactly. I liken this to Biden challenging a known bully in the bar and the bully punching both him and his Ukrainian friend in the nose. I am going to be more mad at Biden because he is supposed to represent me. Of course, the bully is more morally repugnant, but he is not my guy. With my guy, I am going to ask, "Why did you provoke him? That was stupid. ".
The whole bad guy, good guy narrative that is being sold is a farce. If I am upset with what Biden, does that automatically make me a Putin lover? Hell no.A bit naive. Putin was always going to attack Ukraine, he was just manufacturing excuses to justify it. What the US should have done is fly in several squadrons of F15's and A10's on a friendship mission to Ukraine.
Angry Orc noises...It is sad seeing you trying to string together an argument, the RuZZian brain drain is real.
Elvis 2008
04-25-23, 15:44
A bit naive. Putin was always going to attack Ukraine, he was just manufacturing excuses to justify it. What the US should have done is fly in several squadrons of F15's and A10's on a friendship mission to Ukraine.https://www.cc.com/video/8067fc/the-colbert-report-crisis-in-ukraine-gideon-rose
You explained the dilemma of Western foreign policy. How much power and force do we expend trying to combat immoral and corrupt regimes around the world?
I don't know what the end for the Ukrainian conflict looks like. I just don't know if it looks like the picture you have painted. We might have moved back into a strategy of containment in Eastern Europe and the Pacific Rim. It's not inspiring. It's not brave. It's just realpolitik.My last post dealt directly with your comment that I'm taking things too personally. In response I stated that, aside from all the analysis and reasoning about geopolitical and battlefield outcomes, there is a distinct and separate moral dimension that needs to be considered and addressed. And it's that dimension that explains my personal feelings of revulsion and outrage.
So, lets try this a second time, shall we? Here's a video interview of a Wagner mercenary who has returned to Russia from fighting in Ukraine. In the interview, he states (among other disclosures) that he was given explicit orders to kill civilians, including children. In one graphic passage, he talks about shooting a girl who was about 5 or 6 years of age. He killed her with a shot to the head.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1648013152414732288
Here's my challenge to you: Can you describe, in a simple single sentence, your reaction as a moral being to this (IMO) quintessential example of evil?
Please don't do yourself a disservice by engaging in some (for this particular moral issue) detached pundit-style discussion of a geopolitical or policy topic. It's a simple question that begs an equally simple answer.
Here's the bottom-line, IMO: Nobody knows how the war will end. Maybe Russia wins completely, maybe Ukraine wins completely, or maybe it'll be something in the middle. But that has NOTHING to do with recognizing evil when it's being perpetrated. And, once recognized, morality demands that it be condemned.
My personal feelings stem from my outrage at the depraved atrocities being committed by Russia, in a calculated and systematic way. I don't have the right to ask anyone to share those feelings, but I do absolutely have the right to expose you to what is clearly an act of pure evil, and ask for your honest and unfiltered reaction.
P.S. For anyone who would like to claim that this video isn't genuine, I'd simply point out that Wagner isn't making that claim and is taking action to punish the interviewee.
Of course, it is. What did Hersch say that was wrong?
When Hersh was asked if he had one source, he responded, "I do not give up my sources. " Got that? Pleural. So you take the accusation as fact because that is what you want to believe.
In truth, if you read Hersh's story, it is hard to fathom he had only one source.
Absolutely not. You do not get to single handedly judge Hersch without looking at his facts. You did not read what he write nor dispute what he wrote. You just swallowed the fact checkers bullshit story whole.
And then you cite the AP code. LOL. You think after all the twitter files, Russiagate, Covid, the vaccines, and the latest Hunter Biden fiasco that the AP gets the facts right? Give me a fucking break.
Every single fact you cite fits your narrative. I do not dispute the fact that Russian ships were near the pipeline. What I dispute is how anyone with a brain could take that fact and compare it to Hersh's detailed writing and say, "The Russians may have done it" like you did. As far as you go, any theory is acceptable including the pipeline being blown up by space monkeys. Shit, Biden himself said he was going to take out the pipeline. You are like, "Well, gee, duh, just because Biden said he would take out the pipeline is not proof he did it. ".
Peter Zeihan has said ad nauseam that this war is "Russia's to lose" even when he has chronicled the victories Ukraine has enjoyed. What he has said jives totally with the documents Jack Teixeira leaked. It showed the Russians had a huge advantage in the war and were grossly incompetent with how they managed their resources. Zeihan said this is normal for the Russians. They are incompetent in the early phase of a war and get better and better.
What bugs me about you is you are so gung ho war the very notion that the Ukrainians could lose has not even entered your head, and it could easily have happened and probably should have happened.
You are saying "Well, no one knows what could happen", but the possibility Russia could take all of Ukraine does not seem to register with you. And when you say that anything could happen, you really are not considering nuclear war. Because if you and the people spinning the narrative you believe in really felt like those things were possible, this war would have been over with yesterday.Since you're so eager to believe unverified anonymous info, here's some more for you to swallow:
STOP THE PRESSES!
It's been revealed that the source of the 20+ year old (Bin laden raid-related) "goat fuck" quote, as well as the contemporary (NordStream-related) "goat fuck" quote, is none other than Elvis2008!
This is based on an unimpeachable intel source. Actually, intel SOURCES, as in "Pleural" (funny spell-check boo-boo), just take my word for it.
A personal substack is being prepared for the publication of this HIGHLY DETAILED bombshell info! Sources can't be disclosed, not even internally to those who would pledge to keep identities secret, so you'll just have to trust that the info is true.
Those of you who believed the false official narrative that Elvis has left the building should prepare to have your world view shaken to its core! Elvis has NOT left the building, he's been fucking goats this whole time.
Be sure to click on www.elvisthegoatfucker.substack.com in the near future. Every detail on that site is 100% true, guaranteed!
You explained the dilemma of Western foreign policy. How much power and force do we expend trying to combat immoral and corrupt regimes around the world?
I don't know what the end for the Ukrainian conflict looks like. I just don't know if it looks like the picture you have painted. We might have moved back into a strategy of containment in Eastern Europe and the Pacific Rim. It's not inspiring. It's not brave. It's just realpolitik.Wyatt,
The problem is not that we try to combat "immoral and corrupt regimes. " The problem is we don't.
If we did, we wouldn't try to placate the Saudis, China, Venezuela and a litany of other "bad hombres" from Haiti to the "Stans. " And we'd certainly have challenged Russia not in 2022, not even in 2014, but back in 2008 when it invaded Georgia under a false flag pretense.
Or maybe even before then, when they first produced and broadcasted the animation about nuclear ashes. That's 2006 or 2007, I believe.
Strong men (or, as it's turned out in our example, "strawmen") never stop until they're stopped.
Had we been more forceful instead of encouraging that fucking waste of human DNA, this war wouldn't have happened.
And you're damn right about containment. Russia is done and gone for civilization for at least 4-5 decades. The only thing I hope about is that someone is working on making sure all those nukes stay wherever they are right now.
A bit naive. Putin was always going to attack Ukraine, he was just manufacturing excuses to justify it. What the US should have done is fly in several squadrons of F15's and A10's on a friendship mission to Ukraine.I too believe Putin was always going to attack, but I don't think he was looking for excuses. His excuses are ridiculous, clumsy and, quite frankly, insane. I think he attacked when he got to believe that his army was ready and Ukraine would fall apart the moment his tanks cross the border. Then he would've conquered Kyiv in three days and installed a pro-Russian government, and the West would've been forced to accept the new reality like they did in 2014. Basically, he fell victim of his own propaganda.
'And the LORD said unto Cain, Where is Abel thy brother? And he said, I know not: Am I my brother's keeper?
Click on cancel and then play (English titles provided):
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/43466
'And the LORD said unto Cain, Where is Abel thy brother? And he said, I know not: Am I my brother's keeper?
Click on cancel and then play (English titles provided):
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/43466And God said:
"The voice of thy brother's blood crieth unto me from the ground. And now art thou cursed from the earth, which hath opened her mouth to receive thy brother's blood from thy hand".
Cursed from the earth, an appropriate fate for Putin the murderer.
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