American Politics

[QUOTE=CheckMate1;2935551]1. Disagree: 9/11 may still have happened. Bin Laden planned the attacks for many years before it was executed. To say that this would not happen is a reach.

2. Agree: I don't think that a Gore administration would have pushed into Iraq, as history unfold. My OPINION / Speculation is that Bush / Cheney wanted to go into Iraq, and this slim opening gave them their excuse to go in.

3. Disagree: At the end of the milennium, there were weaknesses in the financial markets, mainly dot com bubble that would still have happened. One can blame the previous administration for this situation to happen due to new technologies without guardrails. *catch-22* can't advance innovations without unleashing technology / to prevent fraud and implosion ("regulations") is needed. Same discussion as pertain to crypto today. It isn't whether we should have regulations or not, but rather how much.

4. One of the two would have happened. The second one (Housing) still may have happened. Although the Bush administration pushed for home ownership, I didn't see the push back from the other side either.

5. Agree: At the end of the Clinton era, there was a surplus that would have extended under Gore. Instead of maintaining it for a rainy day, it was given back to the market / tax cuts. By itself, it wasn't harmful, but with the bubble and unpaid wars, a perfect storm for deficit, and its continuation.

Disagree: No Inflation is a myth, in any era. Carter / Regan was the beginning of the hyper inflation era, Clinton administration / Feds masked the problem with the change in calculating inflation, taking out food and energy. Gingrich was the speaker at the time, so can't claim victory on any sides.

[URL]https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/current_issues/ci2-4.pdf[/URL]

Like all sci-fi movies (time travel), yes it would be different, but not everything is rainbows and unicorns.[/QUOTE]- The difference between the seriousness with which Clinton and his Administration regarded and responded to Intel on potential terrorist attacks re Presidential Daily Briefings, for one, and the way GW Bush and his administration virtually shrugged it off and dismissed it was shocking. Imo, the way the Counter Terrorism Chief who worked for both testified in the 9/11 hearings is most telling. It didn't even require much push back and response to possible domestic terrorist attack "chatter" to get the bad guys to abandon the idea, as happened under Clinton. By stark contrast, Bush and Rice did nothing in response to the rather specific PDB intel prior to 9/11.

[URL]https://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/03/24/911.commission/index.html[/URL]

- The Financial Crisis hit almost 8 years after Clinton left office. The huge wave of Subprime / Liar Loans did not begin under Clinton. There were practically no more floated than usual under Clinton. However, they flourished under Bush. And in large part for a reason you alluded to; home ownership increased under GW Bush. In fact, it was about the only notable economic "gain" Bush could point to during his "jobless" economy. No way was his Treasury Department's Office of Thrift Supervision going to get in there and demand banks and lending institutions enforce the non Liar Loan regulations that were on the books and spoil that one and only Bush Economy goose laying a sort of but illusery golden egg. Especially since enforcing regulations on anything, particularly banks, is anathema to Repub economic philosophy.

In short, Clinton's Treasury Department did its job because they knew the boss expected them to do its job while Bush's Treasury Department did not do its job because they knew the boss did not even want it to do its job.

[URL]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_policy_of_the_George_W._Bush_administration[/URL]

There was little push back by members of Congress simply because Bush's Office of Thrift Supervision, whose job it was to monitor and report on those things, not Congress, was telling Congress everything is fine, nothing to see here.

- I would say hyper-Inflation began under Nixon / Ford. Ford's way of dealing with it was to encourage everyone to wear WIN lapel buttons; Whip Inflation Now.

Carter's Fed Chairman appointee, Paul Volcker, was vetted by Carter and appointed in late 1979 precisely because he was willing to do the unpopular thing in order to tame it; raise Fed Funds Rates, same as the Fed Chair Powell this time around. And Carter was willing for him to do it during an election year. By early 1980, almost a year before Reagan took office, Volcker's methods were already working and Inflation (and lending interest rates) was beginning to decline and continued to decline into Reagan's first year in office. No, not in a straight line month after month. Nothing works that way. But the downward trend had definitely begun in early 1980 and continued in that direction over the next 3+ years.

Anyway, I am not saying there would have been no ordinary and normal inflation had Trump not made every decision a World Leader ought to make if his goal was to produce a Pandemic. I am talking about the elevated level of inflation the world experienced as an unavoidable outcome of it.

[URL]https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/[/URL]

[QUOTE=Elvis 2008;2935361]Back when I shorted oil, it took a long time for the market to get it right. {...yada, yada, yada}[/QUOTE]

Yes, thank you for yet another thrilling, episode of your market genius! Riveting as always!

[QUOTE=Elvis 2008;2935361]What I told people is you know your going to cause deaths when you shut down the economy and make everyone poorer. ...

We went $10 trillion further in debt due to a virus with 0. 2% mortality and lost trillions more due to decreased economic activity. The Covid plan ranks up there with the worst economic fuckups in our country's history.[/QUOTE] Yeah, okay sensei, calm down with the COVID market conspiracies,...it's just the market signaling to the FED, a rate cut is long overdue and perhaps a little profit taking.

As I've said before, [i]"Even the sun shines up a dog's ass some days".[/i] But in YOUR case, you've been calling for a market crash and economic recession, for almost the last 4 years now. [b]And you've been WRONG every time! [/b]

So the sun hasn't exactly shone much up your ass for four years. But I'm sure, if you say it long enough and often enough...that sun will surely shine some day! (....kkkk!)

[QUOTE=Spidy;2935584](...kkkk!) More gish gallop, served up to say nothing at all. However, you might be right about [i]"Democrats good, Republicans evil",[/i] if you say so.

Hey, just saying, orange is just not a good look on most dudes (see below), save George Hamilton or Ashoka, Togruta Jedi Padawan! (...kkkk!)



YOUR obvious failure to realize YOUR own "color-blind" rhetoric of division from your post, that Trump and Repubs sow everyday, is just more evidence of the pitiful failure to see all legal peoples and citizens no matter their color, as Americans. PERIOD!

I'll let your own Repub, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, tell you, in her own words:
[LIST][i]"Think about it", Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) told reporters Wednesday. "What have we been talking about all week long? Childless cat women, DEI candidates. [b]Now is she black? Is she Indian?"[/b] ... "Maybe they don't know how to handle the campaign. And so you default to issues that [b]should simply not be an issue.[/b]"

[u]Senate Republicans forgot Trump's recklessness. It's back to haunt them.[/u]
[url]https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/03/trump-senate-republicans-race/[/url][/i][/LIST]Over the last several weeks, Repubs have constantly tried to get Trump to talk about administrative plans and policies for a future America (other than Project 2025, which he denies), but since he has no vision for America (other than his next grift), good ol' Trump reverts back to his rut of [i][b]misogyny[/b][/i] and [i][b]racism.[/b][/i] In other words his comfort zone of issues.[/QUOTE]Do you know how she got that Senate seat?

And to bust you on more of your bullshit.

I dare you to show us you didn't pull this out of your ass like everything else you subject us to with your keyboard diarrhea.

"Trump is an American Hitler" cmon be a big boy LMAO.

[QUOTE=Spidy;2935205]So this is the world according to QAnon/MAGA conspiracists?

--Trump is 75% orange, but sees himself as a white man (...kkkk!)
--Trump is 100% an asshole, but thinks he decent human being

Bottom line is, Obama, Veep Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren [b]are 100% American. Period![/b][/QUOTE]I thought the point of moderation was to protect people from fighting or being personally disparaging. Well, on this forum, it is literally promoting the Democratic POV. Shoot, if you are going to erase my post, then you should erase the one linked to it as well. You Dems cannot even censor right. You are so paranoid you are censoring politics on a hooker board? Somebody needs to get laid.

I know the incredibly objective George Stephanopoulos went on this idiotic rant with a black Congressman when Trump questioned Kamala's race. It was painful to see a white guy so offended on this topic. Hey, George, her fucking own birth certificate says she is 75% white, and she says that she is black and before she said she was Indian. And now your sex is a preference too?

It is funny that some of the whitest guys I know got genetic testing done and the results showed they were 1 or 2% black. Can they say they are black? Or black women?

What is so funny is this is what Kamala is running on, identity. How can we be racist when we do not what black is? How can we be sexist when we do not know what women are? What the hell do diversion and sexual equality even mean now?

I will make it easy for everyone. If you are Republican, you are racist and sexist, and we Democrats do not have to define what those terms mean. In fact, asking us to define those terms is proof you are racist and sexist. My God, you are so offensive, Elvis.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2935514]There are a lot of markers freaking people out with supposedly 100% accurate
measures of recession: the surge in the unemployment percentage, the unwinding of the inverted yield curve[/QUOTE]An inverted yield curve often [B]precedes[/B] a recession, and its unwinding does not. See, for example:

[URL]https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-longest-inverted-yield-curve-in-u-s-history-may-end-soon-what-it-means-for-stocks/ar-AA1oeOdb?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=f45c9d89cadd48cbb65d9cd9b72e4af4&ei=31[/URL]

"The financial market's top recession warning, the inverted yield curve, looks ready to end its record stretch of flashing a warning signal. ".

Or: [URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_yield_curve[/URL].

"It has often been said that the inverted yield curve has been one of the most reliable leading indicators for economic recession during the post–World War II era. ".

Or: [URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_yield_curve[/URL].

"The inverted curve reflects bond investors' expectations for a decline in longer-term interest rates, a view typically associated with recessions. ".

As to unemployment rates and recessions, even neocons like the "Sahm Rule," where you look at the three month moving average and not a random spike. But what you, personally (and others of your ilk), probably need to look at when deciding if "Democrats are douches" is probably the growth in real GDP during are administrations and the administrations. Here's your data source; let's see what you come up with.

[URL]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1/[/URL]

Hint: you lose!

[QUOTE=MarquisdeSade1;2935533]No failed China trade war? Why is it failed? Because you are anti America and pro China?

I see you are still upset we didn't get that 3rd and 4th term of Bubba, that wanted TPP would still be in effect if not for Our Lord and Savior.

[URL]https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/04/business/china-hate-speech-xenophobia.html[/URL]

[URL]https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/4-us-college-instructors-local-tourist-injured-in-china-knife-attack/3246270[/URL]

Yes the Chinese are livid because the jig is up.

Yes they are so angry because the trade war against them failed..[/QUOTE]What did Trump's tax on American consumers and plunging the American Manufacturing and Agriculture Industries into Recession so deep he had to add billions more to the deficit by issuing emergency welfare checks just to keep them afloat accomplish for America?

How about zero.

On top of which it is highly likely that the reason Chinese anus-licker Trump defunded and removed those Early Warning Pandrmic Prevention teams from those Chinese labs in 2018 and 2019 contrary to all expert warnings for him not to do something so dangerous and stupid was simply to flatter Xi's ego in the midst of those failed negotiations that, "Oh, don't worry, Master. See? We trust you and your people to be honest actors and responsible to alert the world ASAP if any deadly virus begins to spread in and around your research labs. We trust you. ".

Which was exactly the wrong thing to do with the wrong people at the wrong time. A Trump specialty. Trump's Pandemic was created precisely because, AS EXPECTED, Xi and his people kept the spread of that virus and their knowledge of its virulence a secret for a few critical weeks until it was no longer possible to confine it to one region in China.

Thanks to your lord and savior Trump.

[B]China bought none of the extra $200 billion of US exports in Trump's trade deal[/B]

[URL]https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2022/china-bought-none-extra-200-billion-us-exports-trumps-trade-deal[/URL]

[QUOTE=EihTooms;2935412]"It never made sense but what would trigger a selloff"?[/QUOTE]Really very simple, the Yen got stronger. Dollar got weaker in relationship to a huge trading partner. 20 Trillion in carry trades are being unwound. It's worse than the final scene out of trading places.

12% Sell off in TriFi. 30% Sell Off of BTC. Few days later BTC back to 56 K where it was a couple of weeks ago. This is normal volatility for those ACTUALLY familiar with markets. If you had correct positions sizes, investments within your range of risk tolerance good risk management strategies they its all good. NVDA is down but AMD is up. That is the market. Go Figure.

[B]Scared money don't make no money![/B]

[URL]https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/07/opinion/kamala-harris-google-antitrust.html[/URL]

[QUOTE=Huacho;2935645]An inverted yield curve often [B]precedes[/B] a recession, and its unwinding does not. See, for example:

[URL]https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-longest-inverted-yield-curve-in-u-s-history-may-end-soon-what-it-means-for-stocks/ar-AA1oeOdb?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=f45c9d89cadd48cbb65d9cd9b72e4af4&ei=31[/URL]

"The financial market's top recession warning, the inverted yield curve, looks ready to end its record stretch of flashing a warning signal. ".

Or: [URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_yield_curve[/URL].

"It has often been said that the inverted yield curve has been one of the most reliable leading indicators for economic recession during the postWorld War II era.[/QUOTE]Exactly. The fact that more than 5% of any poll respondents could possibly conclude that Repubs are "better at handling the economy" than Dems, particularly Biden vs Trump, is simply a testament to how effective Mainstream Media's constant elevating of Repub failures vs denigrating Dem successes has been.

BTW, I highlighted in bold your accurate and fully substantiated point about [B]R[/B] vs [B]D[/B] economic growth because I have found that is the best way that I know of to override the auto-correct feature on this site when we use initials in that way.

[QUOTE=Huacho;2935645]An inverted yield curve often [B]precedes[/B] a recession, and its unwinding does not. Hint: you lose![/QUOTE]I want to make sure I have this right and where we are now in your opinion. So what you are saying, and correct me if I am wrong, is that the inverted yield curve WAS a huge negative but now that it is no longer inverted, we have nothing but sunny skies in front of us.

Is that right?

Of course, there is another possibility right? That we are in a recession right now and you do not know that we are.

[URL]https://mishtalk.com/economics/all-hell-breaks-loose-in-the-next-few-months-as-recession-bites/[/URL]

Again, this does not matter to me. An inverted yield curve preceding recession is a trend not a fact. It just means the big boys in the bond market have not been wrong when predicting recession. There is no guarantee their perfect record holds up.

The demonstrably Winger-leaning RealClearPolitics polling site has now followed their painfully reluctant decision to move Michigan away from Trump's side and into Harris' side with another painfully reluctant decision to move Wisconsin away from Trump's side and into Harris' side on their No Toss-Up States Electoral College Map:

[URL]https://www.realclearpolitics.com/[/URL]

Can Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, etc be far behind? It is difficult to find a non +blue poll result on those Trump vs Harris polls these days.

BTW, why isn't Trump campaigning anywhere lately?

Covid?

Is he just too old and too tired?

Can't fill a stadium as fully as Harris does? (See photo below of the Philly arenas, Trump vs Harris. So many empty seats for Trump).

No more money to buy free hats, free beer and food for his rally attendees?

No reason to bother considering he is planning on his Fake Electors, Cheating State Election MAGAs mission to create chaos when certifying the votes and the always reliable Loony Repub MAGA 6 on the Supreme Court coming through for him to overthrow American democracy no matter what?

The perennial poor put-upon "victim" baby Donald "My Daddy Handed Me Billions and I Blew It" Trump is always coming up with some pathetic excuse.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2935808]I want to make sure I have this right and where we are now in your opinion. So what you are saying, and correct me if I am wrong, [/QUOTE]You're wrong. That's not what I said. I said that an inverted yield curve, and not [B]reversal of an inverted yield curve[/B], is what's considered by many to be a harbinger of recession. Your issues with reading comprehension really hold back your critical thinking skills (such as they are).

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2935785]You are douches because you do not understand what an inverted yield curve means.[/QUOTE]I wonder how I managed to teach finance at the university level, be a federally registered investment advisor, a CPA for twenty years, and work on a currency futures trading desk without knowing that. My graduate level Investment Strategies and Portfolio Management, and in Fixed Income Investments probably just didn't cover yield curves, or expectations theory, or liquidity preference theory. I must be a real douche. I'm probably even more of a douche because I don't try to time or beat the market, or think that I can. So I don't care about short term noise like the yield curve, the business cycle, or whether we are or are not, or will or will not be, in a recession.

My point on GDP being higher under Dems' regimes is not based on its effects on 'the market. ' It is based on its effects on society overall.

[QUOTE=MarquisdeSade1;2935848]There is a special place in hell for those that Cheerlead for the butchering of babies.

[URL]https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/07/tim-walz-said-he-is-so-pro-abortion-nancy-pelosi-suggested-he-tone-it-down/[/URL]
...[/QUOTE]
You might be right...you may very well be right!

As you've told us on many occasions, that you were taught by the good catholic nuns, I can only assume, you would definitely know more about [i]"special places in hell"[/i], than I. So I will have to defer to you on this one?

But as the saying goes, [i][b]"The road to hell is paved with good intentions, but the road to heaven is full of good deeds"[/b][/i]

Under the Harris/Walz campaign, consider some of the following [i][b]"heavenly good deeds"[/b][/i], making better lives for Americans and their families:

--freedom from abortion bans, IVF or contraception bans
--freedom and control over your own body and government interference
--freedom to equality of Human, WOMEN and LBGTQ rights
--affordable health care
--affordable prescription drugs
--affordable housing
--affordable child care/Rearing
--affordable school tuition
--help/assistance with cost of living (for those who need it)
--right to a living wage
--paid leave

AND

--better border security
--no tax cuts or tax reform for the rich and wealthy billionaire elites and companies
--continued support for Ukraine
--sustained jobs in manufacturing, tech, AI, auto, renewable energy ...etc

These are some of the important issues that the Dems are tackling and confronting, that Americans want addressed from their elected government.

But what the hell issues, important to Americans are Repubs talking about?
--More tax cuts for the billionaires?
--Is Veep Harris 50% Black or 70% Indian?
--OMG, Why isn't Usha Chilukuri Vance, JD Vance's wife, white?

Just one culture war issue after another. The majority of Americans don't want another Repub administration hell bent on, 4 more years of culture war nonsense. And that is why Repubs will lose the popular vote (again) and why Repubs, will come to lose in [b][i]"ROEvember"[/i][/b]

So which "road" do you think the Repubs are on?

[QUOTE=Spidy;2935910]You might be right...you may very well be right!

As you've told us on many occasions, that you were taught by the good catholic nuns, I can only assume, you would definitely know more about [i]"special places in hell"[/i], than I. So I will have to defer to you on this one?

But as the saying goes, [i][b]"The road to hell is paved with good intentions, but the road to heaven is full of good deeds"[/b][/i]

Under the Harris/Walz campaign, consider some of the following [i][b]"heavenly good deeds"[/b][/i], making better lives for Americans and their families:

--freedom from abortion bans, IVF or contraception bans
--freedom and control over your own body and government interference
--freedom to equality of Human, WOMEN and LBGTQ rights
--affordable health care
--affordable prescription drugs
--affordable housing
--affordable child care/Rearing
--affordable school tuition
--help/assistance with cost of living (for those who need it)
--right to a living wage
--paid leave

AND

--better border security
--no tax cuts or tax reform for the rich and wealthy billionaire elites and companies
--continued support for Ukraine
--sustained jobs in manufacturing, tech, AI, auto, renewable energy ...etc

These are some of the important issues that the Dems are tackling and confronting, that Americans want addressed from their elected government.

But what the hell issues, important to Americans are Repubs talking about?
--More tax cuts for the billionaires?
--Is Veep Harris 50% Black or 70% Indian?
--OMG, Why isn't Usha Chilukuri Vance, JD Vance's wife, white?

Just one culture war issue after another. The majority of Americans don't want another Repub administration hell bent on, 4 more years of culture war nonsense. And that is why Repubs will lose the popular vote (again) and why Repubs, will come to lose in [b][i]"ROEvember"[/i][/b]

So which "road" do you think the Repubs are on?[/QUOTE]You still want to list the butchering of babies under "heavenly good deeds".

I believe moral people everywhere, believe stopping the butchering of innocent babies supersedes anything else you listed!!

[URL]https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112887108527191005[/URL]

But you want to still Cheerlead for more of it with your ROEvember phrase?

[URL]https://nrlc.org/uploads/factsheets/FS01AbortionintheUS.pdf[/URL]

BTW not incidentally I am an ardent atheist.

[URL]https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/antisemitism-israel-hamas/2024/08/07/id/1175608/[/URL]

The Democratic party is the party of hate, they hate whites they hate Jews they hate Christians they hate anyone hetero.

[URL]https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-08-07/liberation-dildo-mormon-story[/URL]

And "better border security" more full of shit double speak WTF you're a joke!!

Your sophistry is quite unimpressive I see you wouldn't correct your making up the JDV Hitler quote, COWARD!!

Now you want to intentionally conflate his wife being Indian and not white? Really who said she's white? Who said she's black? She says what she is, and that's what she is, not a fake race grifter / race hustler / race con artist like Harris.

[URL]https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112887108527191005[/URL]

[URL]https://www.google.com/search?q=rachel[/URL]+dolez&rlz=1 CAZJQH_enID1051&oq=rachel+&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqBggAEEUYOzIGCAAQRRg7 MgYIARBFGDkyBggCEEUYPNIBCDQzNzRqMGo3 qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8.