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[QUOTE=Bfsie;2436967]McAdonis,
I just saw this:
[URL]https://us.yahoo.com/news/italy-sees-signs-hope-651-virus-deaths-201654253.html[/URL][/QUOTE]I don't mean to sound provocative but am I the only one who believes the Corona virus is a bad joke by the powers that be?
[QUOTE=Bfsie;2436920]If there were no lockdowns, today's number might be 16557 (10000 more) infected cases, instead of 6557. Italy's lockdowns, IMO, definitely have slowed the spread of virus, but not enough to reverse the trend.[/QUOTE]Just wondering about your reasoning. Italy had it's worse 3 days over the weekend with over 600 deaths each day and over 5000 new cases each day. That's on day 12, 13, 14 of a lockdown where the virus's total course is usually only 14 days. Logically, infection rates should have gone down immediately, perhaps even after a week or so; instead, it has only gotten worse over time. Is it just pure optimism or am I missing something?
[QUOTE=BlueSwede;2436743]Try [URL]Seeking.com[/URL]. Some work is needed to find the gems, but you should try.[/QUOTE]Yeah. In fact you can browse on SA for free and you only need to subscribe when you want to contact. So if you go look and don't see anything you like then no harm no foul. The new SA link is found under Dating Agencies way down the page. It was only started a month or two ago so you can read the whole thing pretty easily.
That said I am also happy to answer any questions if you want to PM me. Never done Germany but did browse Munich recently and it seemed a few hotties. I've had plenty of success in the US plus London and Argentina.
PM me if I can help or ask in the SA thread.
[QUOTE=Bfsie;2436967]Maybe it starts to reverse the trend.[URL]https://us.yahoo.com/news/italy-sees-signs-hope-651-virus-deaths-201654253.html[/URL][/QUOTE]I now realize that I may have been overly-critical saying that Italy's lockdown was not slowing anything down. Because I looked at the numbers for China, where I believe their quarantine started January 23rd. Even with a strict and brutal authoritarian style lockdown, China's "daily new case" totals increased for 12 straight days following the ban, before a downward trend started to appear. However, China's difficulty containing the virus may have been complicated by the fact that the outbreak occured during their most important holiday period of the year, where 400 million people travel. [URL]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china[/URL].
[QUOTE=TheCane;2436678]Yeah, did you see all the people going to the beach in Australia and the United States? They will start taking it seriously if and when people start dropping like they are in Italy (I hope not). The authorities in both countries finally did what they should have done in the beginning and officially closed the beaches, versus counting on self-indulgent people to do the right thing.[/QUOTE]Once the virus was on their doorstep, Italian people's attitudes changed in a matter of ten days: [URL]https://www.businessinsider.de/international/coronavirus-italy-quarantine-lockdown-video-2020-3[/URL].
McAdonis,
I think that you are smart enough to understand what I wrote in my previous posts since I know you for quite a while. The following is how I explain to Mursenary:
[QUOTE=Mursenary;2436974]Just wondering about your reasoning. Italy had it's worse 3 days over the weekend with over 600 deaths each day and over 5000 new cases each day. That's on day 12, 13, 14 of a lockdown where the virus's total course is usually only 14 days. Logically, infection rates should have gone down immediately, perhaps even after a week or so; instead, it has only gotten worse over time. Is it just pure optimism or am I missing something?[/QUOTE]First all, I was replying McAdonis's argument that lockdown has no effect on slowing the spread of virus. My answer is Yes, lockdown does have effect on slowing the spread of virus.
For a hypothetical example:
If there is no lockdown, day one will have 20% increase of new infection on the basis of 6000 infected people, so at the end of day one, total infected will be 7200 (6000 + 6000 X 20%). If day two with same 20% increase, at the end of day two, total infected will be 8640 (7200 + 7200 X 20%).
If there is lockdown, day one will only have 10% (instead of 20% because of lockdown) increase of new infection on the basis of 6000 infected people, so at the end of day one, total infected will be 6600 (6000 + 6000 X 10%). If day two with same 10% increase, at the end of day two, total infected will be 7260 (6600 + 6600 X 10%).
As you can see, at the end of day two, totol number of infected people is 8640 without lockdown and 7260 with lockdown. So lockdown does slow the spread of virus even through total number of infected people still rises with lockdown.
I know what you are thinking: why still have new infections. That is because 1) measures of lockdown are still not severe enough. 2) it takes time to lower new infections to zero even if the lockdown measures are severe enough.
[QUOTE=McAdonis;2436993]I now realize that I may have been overly-critical saying that Italy's lockdown was not slowing anything down. Because I looked at the numbers for China, where I believe their quarantine started January 23rd. Even with a strict and brutal authoritarian style lockdown, China's "daily new case" totals increased for 12 straight days following the ban, before a downward trend started to appear. However, China's difficulty containing the virus may have been complicated by the fact that the outbreak occured during their most important holiday period of the year, where 400 million people travel. [URL]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china[/URL].
Once the virus was on their doorstep, Italian people's attitudes changed in a matter of ten days: [URL]https://www.businessinsider.de/international/coronavirus-italy-quarantine-lockdown-video-2020-3[/URL].[/QUOTE]Question is just how much we can trust the Chinese figures. A math expert who was interviewed by Barrons claimed that the Chinese numbers were a 99.99% perfect mathematical model, thus completely impossible in the real world. Additionally we have seen a lot of TV news broadcasts from India, Brazil to Russia and USA claiming sulfur particle density at the crematoriums in Wuhan would suggest 10 x more dead bodies than what has been officially reported.
Eye-opening NYT article on the containment approaches in Asia that are effective but may not be palatable to Westerners. For instance, use of drones, offering bounties, and how fever checks and chlorinated handwashing were commonplace even before COVID-19. It also seems to suggest that strict measures need to be taken before it is too late.
[URL]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-restrictions-us.html[/URL]
[QUOTE]The next priority, experts said, is extreme social distancing.
[b]If it were possible to wave a magic wand and make all Americans freeze in place for 14 days while sitting six feet apart, epidemiologists say, the whole epidemic would sputter to a halt.[/b]
The virus would die out on every contaminated surface and, because almost everyone shows symptoms within two weeks, it would be evident who was infected. If we had enough tests for every American, even the completely asymptomatic cases could be found and isolated.
The crisis would be over.
[b]Obviously, there is no magic wand, and no 300 million tests. But the goal of lockdowns and social distancing is to approximate such a total freeze.[/b]
To attempt that, experts said, travel and human interaction must be reduced to a minimum..[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Milfotronic;2436969]I don't mean to sound provocative but am I the only one who believes the Corona virus is a bad joke by the powers that be?[/QUOTE]Who are the powers that be? Tbh I find nothing funny about Covid19.
[QUOTE=Pistons;2437034]Question is just how much we can trust the Chinese figures. A math expert who was interviewed by Barrons claimed that the Chinese numbers were a 99.99% perfect mathematical model, thus completely impossible in the real world. Additionally we have seen a lot of TV news broadcasts from India, Brazil to Russia and USA claiming sulfur particle density at the crematoriums in Wuhan would suggest 10 x more dead bodies than what has been officially reported.[/QUOTE]Agree with you. Can't trust any numbers out of China. It is also very difficult to believe that they stopped the transmission completely and have no new cases anymore. They kicked out most of the western press and journalists, and internal dissension is minimal. No one truly knows how many new cases are coming up and how many are dying these days.
[QUOTE=Sirioja;2436934]France is very calm, sleeping, kind of spring break holidays, with economy falling.[/QUOTE]Yeah I saw on media, I hope the situation will be back to normal soon and you are back on the road to German FKK.
[QUOTE=Pessimist;2437119]Agree with you. Can't trust any numbers out of China. It is also very difficult to believe that they stopped the transmission completely and have no new cases anymore. They kicked out most of the western press and journalists, and internal dissension is minimal. No one truly knows how many new cases are coming up and how many are dying these days.[/QUOTE]Well, there is one way to get the numbers down: No more testing!
[URL]https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1516240-20200323.htm[/URL]
Or, just simply lie to keep your job, given how the former Hubei party chief was sacked by chairman Xi at the start of this outbreak:
'The number of patients currently undergoing treatment is deliberately being reduced in an effort to show the Xi government's success in combating the epidemic, he said.'
[URL]https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/03/b09b868ec468-breaking-news-wuhan-doctor-blows-whistle-on-manipulation-of-virus-patient-numbers.html[/URL]
43000 people in China had tested positive without them showing on the official data by the end of February:
[URL]https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076323/third-coronavirus-cases-may-be-silent-carriers-classified[/URL]
This volunteer in Wuhan said it clearly: "Any rational person would doubt these figures.
[URL]https://weibointl.api.weibo.cn/share/133707818.html[/URL]
Typical CCP:
Faking reality:
[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9jxlD_7suk[/URL]
China's Coronavirus real 'cure':
[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tChyASUwxh4&bpctr=1585049513[/URL]
[QUOTE=McAdonis;2437055]Eye-opening NYT article on the containment approaches in Asia that are effective but may not be palatable to Westerners. For instance, use of drones, offering bounties, and how fever checks and chlorinated handwashing were commonplace even before COVID-19. It also seems to suggest that strict measures need to be taken before it is too late.
[URL]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-restrictions-us.html[/URL][/QUOTE]I saw a report yesterday that showed how Taiwan used GPS monitoring.
I must say, I give some kind of respect and praise for mental toughness and bravery of FKK girls.
Leaving their home town in Romania and come to foreign Germany to work in industry where they had no or limited experiences. I takes bravery, guts to do that. Some may say stupidity, but they have limited choice in life.
I just fucked nice Romanian stunner in globe, and I was first ever paying customer, I actually saw her walking in to the club at around noon when I walked in and she was not supposed to work on that day as it was her interview, but she turned up in main bar at around late afternoon and management told me service may not be that good in room as it is her first time, but wow she gave me one of the best service I had in my 10 years in FKK. First timer fresh girls are often the best and somehow leave some memory that is memorable.
Brave young girls and mentally tough. It is quite amazing some of them remained actually fair and good hearted.
[QUOTE=TheCane;2437194]I saw a report yesterday that showed how Taiwan used GPS monitoring.[/QUOTE]One of China's monitoring systems in action. [URL]https://youtu.be/3K3fy5eKeuM?t=725[/URL].