American Politics

[QUOTE=Spidy;2946787]Yes, the Fed rate cut, was long overdue and a nice boost to the economic outlook.

[b]Voters split on whether Harris or Trump would do a better job on the economy[/b], Sept 20, 2024
[url]https://apnews.com/article/harris-trump-economy-poll-inflation-dc80ac9e5d7da42900762910d5f0a283[/url]

What is interesting to witness, even more so, is that [i][b]"the thinly veiled"[/b][/i] notion and idea that, [i][b]"Trump and Repubs are better for economy"[/b][/i] is finally being eviscerated.

On the back of one of the worse performances at a presidential debate, by the convict Trump , the Dems and Biden's economic strength and very successful job creation (16+ million), are now translating over to the Harris/Walz ticket are now seen as being better on the economy or just a good with a split or drawing even.

Thanks again, President Biden! Thanks again Veep Harris![/QUOTE]16 million! Is that all! How much was lost during Covid? How many were added from the minimum wage increase? And how many after unemployment benefits ended?

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2944313]You understand this a lot better than I do Elvis. I don't have a good grasp on how money is created. I think through increases in high powered or base money and the multiplier effect from lending, you end up with a whole lot more money than what the Fed injected into the system. I'm reading that bank reserves are no longer required in the USA. Do you know if that means the Fed creates base money solely from buying government securities now?

During COVID a lot of people saved stimulus money. They weren't spending. So personal savings grew to huge levels, around $2. 5 trillion. Then they started spending, after the $1. 9 trillion dump from Biden's American Rescue Plan. Demand went up, inflation went up. That's what an economist friend told me anyway.

Interesting comments on gold and silver. Intuitively I always thought a gold backed currency would be asking for deflation. Also good analysis of the Fed's dilemma. What do you do when you have inflation, so you have to raise interest rates, but the national debt is bursting at the seems, so that the country can't afford the interest payments? I wonder if the scenario you described, you raise rates, dampen demand, inflation goes down so that interest rates can go down, could break down in the USA at some point because of excessive debt. I've seen that happen in other countries.

Obviously, as you say I think, if you have massive government spending and run the national debt way up, you're going to slow growth in the long term. You're starving the private sector relative to government. Yeah, spending on government will increase GDP, but it doesn't necessarily improve productivity. (There are exceptions though, for example with wisely-spent infrastructure spending.) And without improvements in productivity, I don't see how you have good long term growth in per capita GDP. As I've noted here more than once, among developed countries, smaller government is correlated with higher GDP per capita.

What do you think happened to all that excessive money that was created in Japan? I guess people saved it, and loaned it back to the Japanese government, so that you didn't have demand pull inflation, until recently?

Now that interest rates are no longer very low, do you think MMT will go out of fashion? In researching it as a result of being intrigued by Goatscrot's posts, I saw that a lot of the press was back around 2020 and prior years. There hasn't been so much since 2022, during the higher rate environment.

Thanks, great write up.[/QUOTE][URL]https://www.firstthings.com/web-exclusives/2019/03/against-the-dead-consensus[/URL]

Third World.

[QUOTE=KumuMan;2946817]16 million! Is that all! How much was lost during Covid? How many were added from the minimum wage increase? And how many after unemployment benefits ended?[/QUOTE][B]The Covid Jobs Recovery Is Complete (And Then Some)
Nov. 7, 2023[/B]

[URL]https://www.statista.com/chart/24363/number-of-jobs-lost-since-february-2020/[/URL]

[QUOTE]By October 2023, nonfarm payrolls had increased to 156.9 million, exceeding their pre-pandemic peak by 4.6 million jobs.[/QUOTE]Note that was about a year ago. With adjustments either way, by the end of this year it will probably show a net gain of 6-7 million jobs in the Biden presidency. Maybe more.

Mind you, this is at a time when the Trump-appointed Fed was trying mightily to tamp DOWN jobs creation by increasing the cost of money / Fed Funds Rates / interest rates without triggering a Great Repub-style Recession. Some would argue dithering around, prolonging uncertainty in the economy too long. I am one of those who would argue that. And I suspect Biden also suspected such a Repub Fed Chair appointee would dither too long and clumsily as well. Hence, the size of the recovery stimulus.

That is still a remarkable jobs creation result in a single term that required major moves to effect a No Recession, No Global Recession, No Great Depression Recovery.

Compare that to Trump's record of spending $2. 5+ Trillion just to create 1 million fewer jobs in his first 3 pre Trump's Pandemic years with that God awful Repub economic "stimulus" legislation than was created in the previous 3 Obama-Biden years without it.

And, yes, minimum wage increases matter. Those minimum wage increases inacted by Dems in primarily Blue Cities and Blue States and all while Trump was bad-mouthing increases in the minimum wage as Repubs do was the only reason anyone got an increase in work-related income during the Trump presidency. And there he was taking credit for it. LOL. What a scam!

I'm guessing NONE of any poll respondents who idiotically state they think Repubs or Trump is better at handling the economy than Dems and Biden / Harris has the slightest clue that the only reason there were more and better paying jobs available during any Repub Administration is because Dems fend off and mitigate as much harm to the American working men and women as possible from major Repub policy and stewardship downturn results by raising minimum wages and benefits (with ripple effects to all other income levels) at the state and local levels.

Uh. That would be because Mainstream Media prefers to keep that kind of thing as much of a secret as possible, especially during election years. LOL.

[B]CEOs admit they won't create jobs with their tax cut money.
Despite White House hype, businesses aren't very interested in investing their extra profits.
Nov. 17, 2017[/B]

[URL]https://www.salon.com/2017/11/17/ceos-admit-they-wont-create-jobs-with-their-tax-cut-money/[/URL]

[B]Six years later, more evidence shows the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act benefits U.S. business owners and executives, not average workers.
Dec. 20, 2023[/B]

[URL]https://equitablegrowth.org/six-years-later-more-evidence-shows-the-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-benefits-u-s-business-owners-and-executives-not-average-workers/[/URL]

[B]Blue states $15 minimum wage push gets a jump-start.
2/16/2019[/B]

[URL]https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/16/new-jersey-minimum-wage-1173156[/URL]

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2946815]#1. Growth with high interest rates. That is the past and is irrelevant.

2. Higher unemployment is good.

3. Government spending.

4. Government spending.

5. Oil's significance declines. When you are the world's largest producer of something and are exporting oil products as we are now, that is bad for the USA not good. And FWIW, it is a stupid prediction as oil production has for the most part done nothing but go up.

6. Boomers dying. LOL. Not sure how that creates wealth.

7. Government spending.

"Military spending goes to USA Defense contractors and their employees, with a multiplier effect that benefits subcontractors. " You got to be kidding me.

If you asked Republicans who was really going to pay for Trump's wall, my bet is most Republicans understood that Mexico paying for it was a white lie.

But I think you Democratic douches really believe we can just keep printing up money, going further into debt, and keep spending it without any problems.[/QUOTE][URL]https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/05/25/529507199/a-proposed-new-tax-mainly-on-latinos-to-pay-for-trumps-border-wall[/URL]

[QUOTE=MarquisdeSade1;2946466][URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_Xga_hg-c4[/URL]

VOTE MAGA save our hobby and our gender, and to think ET constantly says the GOP is anti sex for pleasure (real men love hetero sex ie MAGA men).

He has things upside with that as he does with everything else.

the Democrats really hate rich black dudes, they want to destroy them all
Michael Vick etc etc etc

Third World...[/QUOTE]They are replacing them with tens of millions of illegals.

Third World.

Our society must not prioritize the needs of the childless, the healthy, and the intellectually competitive. Our policy must accommodate the messy demands of authentic human attachments: family, faith, and the political community. We welcome allies who oppose dehumanizing attempts at "liberation" such as pornography, "designer babies," wombs for rent, and the severing of the link between sex and gender.

[QUOTE=MarquisdeSade1;2946822][URL]https://www.firstthings.com/web-exclusives/2019/03/against-the-dead-consensus[/URL]

Third World.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2946815]But I think you really believe we can just keep printing up money, going further into debt, and keep spending it without any problems.[/QUOTE]Actually I don't. I think we al l know this. Central Bankers are hoarding Gold (Au). Large institutions are buying up Bitcoin (BTC). Those who are aware of macro economic policies know wealth is built over time through investment and by storing it in hard money.

Trump, Vance and MAGA vermin are invading Ohio in their ongoing Trump's New War Against America to destroy its economy and poison the blood of patriotic Americans.

Why do Repubs hate America so much?

[B]Trump/Repub Closures and Shut-Downs Again. Trump/Repub Terrorism and Threats of Death and Destruction in the streets of Springfield, Ohio. The town's patriotic American citizens are begging the Traitor Trumpsters to please go away and stay away![/B]

[URL]https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=clWX0G2eJV4[/URL]

[QUOTE=Tiny12;2944313]What do you think happened to all that excessive money that was created in Japan? I guess people saved it, and loaned it back to the Japanese government, so that you didn't have demand pull inflation, until recently?

Now that interest rates are no longer very low, do you think MMT will go out of fashion?

Thanks, great write up.[/QUOTE]People sat on the money in Japan until recently. When people started borrowing and buying things, the yen carry trade, that kind of broke the pattern, but I think that is just a blip because USA interest rates are coming down. Again, It does not matter how much money you print if it is not used (I. E. Buried in the ground).

MMT is one of the stupidest things I have ever heard of. It ranks up there with efficient market theory and peak oil and price controls. So here is the issue right now. You have stock darling NVIDIA with a PE of 54. That means for every dollar they earn, people are paying them $54. The excuse for why it is so expensive is Nvidia produces chips in high demand, and the idea with high PE stocks is they are just going to keep growing earnings like gang busters. So you have this huge surge in demand right? What does that do? Higher demand causes inflation, and the Fed has to raise rates. Now we get to the next part which we did not have before was that raising of interest rates puts the USA from defaulting on its debt.

So now MMT comes along, and the people behind it are literally advocating what happens whenever there is a revolution in a country. The first thing the rebels do is say they do not owe the debts of the regime they took over from. Well guess what? No one lends them any money, so they learn they have to back what they owe.

With peak oil, the theory was no matter how much oil went up in price, people were going to buy it, and there were going to be no alternatives. Peak oil was still being discussed even as USA oil production was going up one million bpd per year. When I mentioned that I was told that the increase in USA production was fake or not sustainable. It was not until prices started to fall and Saudi Arabia said that they were not going to cut production that people believed how much the USA was pumping and that event caused oil prices to crash. And Tiny, that took ten years.

So MMT says we can just make interest rates zero. So with that $35 trillion in debt, you just decided that you are not going to pay bond holders any interest? If you do that, the value of those bonds will go down, and the yields will go up. MMT says you can just print up money and buy the bonds. If you do that, you devalue the currency and you have inflation. Then the MMT guys will say we will limit money production until we have inflation. Great, but you cannot fuel growth until you increase the money supply. And what did I say? Low growth or default is your choice. Pick your poison.

Can you imagine racking up huge credit card debt and turning to the creditors and give them IOUs instead of money? That is literally out of the movie Dumb and Dumber. The excuse until now is that the USA has racked up $35 trillion in debt and it has not hurt yet, and Japan has a higher debt to GDP ratio than we do, and they do.

As for the notion that Japan got away with it, look at the value of the Nikkei. [URL]https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical-chart-data[/URL].

It peaks in 1989 and the high point was at around 39,000. As of today, it is lower than that peak price, and the excuse is if Japan can get into so much debt so can we.

And while I know what reality is and Warren Buffett knows and his top lieutenant knows but it is going to take everyone seeing the truth for the market to crash. Now the Nikkei was at a peak PE of 70, and we are at 30 so our crash should be more like 50% versus the 75 to 80% in Japan.

By the way, the Japanese market went up 16% a year for forty years before then. We think the market going up 10 to 15% per year is a birth right. That is not the case at all. This lack of growth completely destroys the entire USA pension system.

The only out is to cut spending like crazy and start paying down our fucking debt, but is anyone talking about that? No, they are just racking up more and more credit card debt and making excuses for why it is okay. We got idiots like Spidy who think racking up credit card debt is genius, and my gloom and doom about it has been totally wrong.

So I am prepared for this, and I am to the point now where I do not care who is president. Trump will understand that there is going to be a need for a massive cut in government spending and a need to actually start paying down debt. Kamala won't. Kamala will keep the same stupid borrow and spending policies going. This crash is happening no matter who is president but with Kamala, it is coming quicker.

I wondered why Aaron Clarey said this and then I read this board and I get it.

I got this Democratic boomer in my family and I get sent this message about this Rachel Maddow documentary. Apparently, this guy Lev Parnas, a Ukrainian, was Trump's point man in Ukraine in getting the dirt on Hunter Biden and Giuliani spearheaded the investigation. I respond and say it is Rachel Meadow so it is Trump bad, Giuliani bad, Hunter Biden good right? I am told I do not understand. I respond Am I right, yes or no? I am told yes but. And I am done. I have seen the same dumb movie for 8 years from Rachel Mad Cow.

Yes, Hunter Biden is a victim now. That is more laughable than serious. The comedy writes itself.

What is serious is the complete waste of money being poured into this Russia and Ukraine bullshit. These countries do not matter to the future of the USA.

Here is a novel idea you fucking dying Democratic douche boomers. You are all worried about Putin and our future. Well, I am worried about our economic future and you are pushing us further and further into debt with all your government handouts. So seeing as how you think Putin is the huge threat to the USA, and I think your piggish greed causing this massive amount of government debt and your dying off before paying your share of it is a MUCH bigger problem, so I propose a solution.

If you are for funding Ukraine in this war, you agree to take half of your social security, Medicare, and government pension payouts. It is time to put your money where your fucking mouths are.

I have this nagging feeling when Democratic douche boomers have to pay the bill for the Ukraine war, those assholes will decide Putin is not quite the threat they previously thought he was.

If you want peace in Ukraine, make the Democratic douche boomers pay for it. If the war costs come out of their pocket, there will be a negotiated peace in no time.

[QUOTE=EihTooms;2946900]Trump, Vance and MAGA vermin are invading Ohio in their ongoing Trump's New War Against America to destroy its economy and poison the blood of patriotic Americans.

Why do Repubs hate America so much?

[B]Trump/Repub Closures and Shut-Downs Again. Trump/Repub Terrorism and Threats of Death and Destruction in the streets of Springfield, Ohio. The town's patriotic American citizens are begging the Traitor Trumpsters to please go away and stay away![/B]

[URL]https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=clWX0G2eJV4[/URL][/QUOTE]Why do you hate America so much? Why do you love Asia and the CCP so much instead?

You left 12 years ago and have stated you will never return, EVER.

Was California that bad for a hetero white guy? Hey wasn't your man crush Barry Hussein in the Oval office in 2012?

[URL]https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2024/09/22/julia-roberts-seems-to-admit-biden-harris-have-ruined-america-during-oprah-event/[/URL]

[QUOTE=MarquisdeSade1;2946852]They are replacing them with tens of millions of illegals.

Third World.[/QUOTE]With God only knows how many child molesters pouring in, but they need to lock up the rich black guy that has sex parties with adults.

[URL]https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2024/09/20/report-sean-diddy-combs-placed-on-suicide-watch/[/URL]

Let's hear it ET, 3 cheers for ALL Democrats!!

Third World.

[I]You have stock darling NVIDIA with a PE of 54. That means for every dollar they earn, people are paying them $54. The excuse for why it is so expensive is Nvidia produces chips in high demand, and the idea with high PE stocks is they are just going to keep growing earnings like gang busters.[/I]

[B]Reality is no excuse is needed. PE Ratio is determined by what the market is willing to value the current / future earnings of the company.[/B]

The PE ratio of AMZN is 97.8. Is AMZN a stock darling? Does AMZN need an excuse to have a PE twice as high as NVDA?

[I]So you have this huge surge in demand right? What does that do? Higher demand causes inflation, and the Fed has to raise rates.[/I]

Industrial demand and consumer demand are two very different things. The are only loosely related. The demand for chips for NVDA is because companies are buying them in order to make products that they are either going to sell or they are going to use the chips in products they are going to use to make them money. Either way, the price action of NVDA stock is being driven by actual business to business activity.

The Fed is lowering rates for a unknown reason. The economy continues to grow. They have not hit their inflation numbers. Unemployment numbers are not rising. So, why are they doing it? I don't know. It is above my pay grade.

But try this on for size. All other central banks are lowering their rates, if the Fed keeps rates high that is going to cause the dollar to get stronger relative to other currencies in the world. That is going to make exports from the USA more expensive. That will actually decrease demand, hurting the economy in the USA. If my logic is off please point out where I am wrong about this.

I know that if you increase liquidity in a market when it is not needed, you wind up with more money chasing fewer goods. That means the Fed itself is creating the inflation. Citizens of the United States of America are not savers. They are not going to sit on this new liquidity that they have in their pockets from, lower credit card rates and lower mortgage rates through re-financing, lower car loan rates, they are going to spend that money. THAT is what is going to cause inflation to increase. Not the companies purchasing NVDA chips. In fact the market is currently telling us that earnings from AMZN are going to be more valuable than the earnings from NVDA because consumer purchases in the disUnited States of America are about to get lit off like a rocket engine motor.

[I]Now we get to the next part which we did not have before was that raising of interest rates puts the USA from defaulting on its debt.[/I]

The USA is going to inflate its way out of debt. No one is going to put up with an austerity program. Trump is not going to introduce that shit. He is pandering for votes. Just like he is doing about crypto. He had four years and office and a republican congress and did nothing. At least the Democrats are being honest. They say: [B]No Vaseline![/B] LOL!

The words highlighted in italics were written any an individual who neither understand micro or macro economic theory or actions. This post was designed to point out basic errors and assumptions made by the writer of those words.

[QUOTE=MarquisdeSade1;2947055]Why do you hate America so much? Why do you love Asia and the CCP so much instead?

You left 12 years ago and have stated you will never return, EVER.

Was California that bad for a hetero white guy? Hey wasn't your man crush Barry Hussein in the Oval office in 2012?

[URL]https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2024/09/22/julia-roberts-seems-to-admit-biden-harris-have-ruined-america-during-oprah-event/[/URL][/QUOTE]I will be receiving my mail-in ballot pack any day now. Then, as always, I will vote 100% Dem on every entry where there is one. That is proof positive that I love America, am strictly partisan in favor of Great Dem Economic Expansions and Historic Jobs Creation over Great Repub Recessions and Historic Jobs Destruction, in favor of Lower Crime and not in favor of Outlawing Sex For Pleasure nationally.

You're welcome.

I am proud to be voting in sync with these and all real patriotic American heros:

[B]More than 700 former military and national security officials endorse Harris, say Trump is impulsive and ill-informed.
Sept. 22, 2024[/B]

[URL]https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/22/bipartisan-national-security-group-endorses-harris-over-trump.html?__source=androidappshare[/URL]

[QUOTE] In an open letter released by National Security Leaders for America, 741 bipartisan former national security officials endorsed Harris for president, calling Trump impulsive and ill-informed.

The statement was signed by former Secretaries of State Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, as well as Republican Secretaries of Defense Chuck Hagel and William Cohen.

The letter criticized the former presidents foreign affairs track record and alleged involvement in the Jan. 6th Capitol riot.

Sundays endorsement comes as the Harris campaign is in the midst of an effort to rally Republicans who may be losing interest in Trump.[/QUOTE]