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[QUOTE=Pekkakoo; 1154920]I think HIV is more like a diabetes these days. Many people don't consider diabetes as a "death sentence" like HIV but diabetes still kills many people slowly. It reduces the life expectancy of the people who have it by many years, possibly even something like 10-15 years much like HIV. Neither HIV nor diabetes can be cured. You need lots of medication in both cases. Please do not take any risks cause HIV is still a very serious disease but it is researched a lot nowadays. There is a good chance of a vaccine in the near future. And when there is a vaccine there it usually a cure so if you catch HIV today you would probably die of it in 10-20 years and it is possible that there will be in a cure in that time frame and you won't die of it.
The problem of Hi virus is that it mutates so much. That makes it very difficult to create a vaccine against it but it is certainly possible. [/QUOTE]You said it yourself: diabetes may reduce your life expectancy by 10-15 years, so you die aged 60-65. HIV may kill you in 10-20 yeras, so you die aged 30-50. Big difference in my opinion. And AIDS is still a pretty grim disease (wasting, sweats, aching, nausea, etc etc). I wouldn't bet on a vaccine or cure anytime soon.
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Regardless of the illness, diabetes, Hiv, regardless of the stats, no one wants to be sick! No one wants to have to worry for their rest of their life! We can come up with millions of reasons to justify our position as to what we are doing! I can safely say when the times comes that one is sick there isn't a person on the face of this earth that wish they weren't.
For some reason when it comes to sex everything is thrown out the window?
LBM
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[QUOTE=Pekkakoo;1154920]I think HIV is more like a diabetes these days.[/QUOTE]Yesterday I asked the GF if she'd mind going with me for an HIV test. No problem, she said, so in we went. Both negative, thankfully. I told her I was impressed with how willing she was to go right in and do it.
'I look after myself so I don't worry about that, ' she said. 'But you won't get me to go for a diabetes test. '
Turns out, she's seen a neighbor or two die of AIDS, but she's seen dozens of family members and friends suffer with diabetes. To her it's a much more immediate risk, and that's when that weird human reaction kicks in: therefore she doesn't want to know.
(I don't mean this as a comparison of the two diseases, just an example of a typical lower-middle-class Thai perception of them.)
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Sukhumvit 11 CLINIC
I am getting a few messages asking where to go to get tested.
SUKHUMVIT 11 CLINIC.
1/31 soi 11, sukhumvit road (It is in the small sub-soi across from Ambassador hotel, on the left where Sabai Sabai Massage is)
Mon-Fri 9am to 7pm.
Sat 10am to 4pm.
They Offer:
- Medical Service.
- VD Check up.
- Blood tests.
- Anti-HIV (Aids)
- Vaccinations.
- Innfluenza Vaccine.
- Anti Rabies Vaccine.
- Hep A & B Vaccine.
- Medical Certificate for Work Permit or Driving License.
I went there and did Blood tests (VD Check) + Swabs and got the claps.
The whole cost (with Medicine + Injection) was 3, 000 thb.
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The maths was incorrect
[QUOTE=Osuul; 1163767]Ohhhh boy do the math, you get born once but BB how many times?
The possibility is "times of BB sex" x possibility.
On my last 3 weeks trip I had about 26 girls. That times. 05 is already 1. Something. Adding up all my years in asia if I would go BB every time I would have an infection risk of more then 200. [/QUOTE]Sorry my maths was wrong. It is not 0. 5% it is a 5 in 10 000 chance or 0. 0005% or 1 in every 2000 roots. So at 1 girl a day chances are you will have HIV after 5. 6 years. And your right Osuul, it was a bad comparison.
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The following link speaks of one man who was apparently cured of AIDS. Also mentioned are new preventative measures and a partly effective vaccine, etc.
"The example is Timothy Ray Brown of San Francisco, the first person in the world apparently cured of AIDS. His treatment isn't practical for wide use, but there are encouraging signs that other approaches might someday lead to a cure, or at least allow some people to control HIV without needing medication every day."
". For now, the focus remains on preventing new infections. With recent progress on novel ways to do that and a partially effective vaccine,"we're starting to get the feel that we can really get our arms around this pandemic," Fauci said.
". In the USA though, newly diagnosed patients have a life expectancy only a few months shorter than people without HIV. Modern drugs are much easier to take, and many patients get by on a single pill a day.
[url]http://ca.news.yahoo.com/one-mans-success-revives-hope-curing-aids-30-050557388.html[/url]
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[QUOTE=LittleBigMan; 1163848]Regardless of the illness, diabetes, Hiv, regardless of the stats, no one wants to be sick! No one wants to have to worry for their rest of their life! We can come up with millions of reasons to justify our position as to what we are doing! I can safely say when the times comes that one is sick there isn't a person on the face of this earth that wish they weren't.
For some reason when it comes to sex everything is thrown out the window?
LBM[/QUOTE]Honestly what we want is to throw the condom "out the window" and then have sex. Sex of a far superior quality would certainly be an enticing temptation, don't you agree?
If I am sick, that is have a hangover, from drinking a lot, I take an Advil and I'm fine. Better yet, if I take the Advil with the booze and avoid the pain of the hangover pains completely.
With HIV and AIDS it is being claimed many suffer needlessly because the medical community is often reluctant to dispense cheap liquid morphine tablets. This encourages people to consider illicit means of obtaining the same or something similar. I think most of us are aware of the so-called war on drugs.
"Conclusions: In this small retrospective analysis oral retarded morphine produced good results in control of pain of various aetiology in advanced HIV disease, regardless of previous or concomitant use of other opiates."
[url]http://gateway.nlm.nih.gov/MeetingAbstracts/ma?f=102220415.html[/url]
[url]http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2011/02/15/many-hivaids-patients-suffer-pain-needlessly[/url]
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[QUOTE=PinkPearl; 1164068]Honestly what we want is to throw the condom "out the window" and then have sex. Sex of a far superior quality would certainly be an enticing temptation, don't you agree?
If I am sick, that is have a hangover, from drinking a lot, I take an Advil and I'm fine. Better yet, if I take the Advil with the booze and avoid the pain of the hangover pains completely.
With HIV and AIDS it is being claimed many suffer needlessly because the medical community is often reluctant to dispense cheap liquid morphine tablets. This encourages people to consider illicit means of obtaining the same or something similar. I think most of us are aware of the so-called war on drugs.
"Conclusions: In this small retrospective analysis oral retarded morphine produced good results in control of pain of various aetiology in advanced HIV disease, regardless of previous or concomitant use of other opiates."
[url]http://gateway.nlm.nih.gov/MeetingAbstracts/ma?f=102220415.html[/url]
[url]http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2011/02/15/many-hivaids-patients-suffer-pain-needlessly[/url][/QUOTE]PinkPearl,
If this makes you think its a walk in the park having Hiv / Aids knock yourself out! I've seen many individual take similar position of trying to convince themselves something is nothing. When that day comes they sing another tune. I've heard people talked about doing the crime because they aren't afraid of doing the time but when they have to pickup the soap they are the ones that cry really loud!
Good luck and good health?
LBM
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[QUOTE=Vestax01;1163959]Sorry my maths was wrong. It is not 0. 5% it is a 5 in 10 000 chance or 0. 0005% or 1 in every 2000 roots. So at 1 girl a day chances are you will have HIV after 5. 6 years. And your right Osuul, it was a bad comparison.[/QUOTE]Probability does not work that way.
The chance is. 5% EVERYTIME, it is not an additive scale.
With that said, the probability figure was derived from self-reported sexual activity and the appearance (or lack of) of HIV in their main partner. Other risky behavior on a per-sex basis would vastly increase this number.
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[QUOTE=Antipopular;1164658]Probability does not work that way. The chance is. 5% EVERYTIME, it is not an additive scale.[/QUOTE]Not sure what you're trying to say here, but anyone who chooses to play any form of Russian Roulette might want to familiarise themselves with two terms: cumulative probability and normal distribution.
Say for example that the odds of infection were just 0. 1% per encounter (1 in 1000) , anyone want to guess the cumulative odds after 1000 encounters*
People can argue endlessly about the actual risk (and there is no single correct answer, because it depends on so many different factors) , but probability has a certain relentlessness to it. Keep taking a risk, even a small one, often enough, and eventually the odds turn against you.
*63% (And the odds have reached 50-50 after about 693 encounters)
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I agree the math is important but I am not sure I want to learn it from you. Fuck someone with AIDS and there are two possible outcomes: 1) you get AIDS, or 2) you don't. So that is binomial, and unrelated to the normal distribution or "bell curve." Since most people would not care if they got AIDS one time or six times, you only care about the probability of getting it at least once. IF the probability of transmission were 1 in a thousand (under whatever conditions), the probability would be 36.8% you would get it exactly once if you fucked 1,000 different hookers with AIDS, each once. The probability that you would get it at least once would be 73.6%, so to me that is the relevant probability.
Or are you saying that each outcome is not independent? Like you fuck the same hooker 1,000 times and she has AIDS? Who's gonna fuck the same hooker 1,000 times? I admit I have fucked a couple of hookers more than 100 times but 1,000 times?
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[QUOTE=Dickhead;1164875]I agree the math is important but I am not sure I want to learn it from you.[/QUOTE]Well I'm not teaching it, so no worries there.
The point is, you shag a few girls with HIV and you'll probably be OK. Keep doing it though and the odds are likely to catch up with you eventually. Pretty simple really.
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[QUOTE=Dickhead;1164875]the probability would be 36.8% you would get it exactly once if you fucked 1,000 different hookers with AIDS, each once. The probability that you would get it at least once would be 73.6%, so to me that is the relevant probability.[/QUOTE]That's different than 63%. Would you care to elaborate on how you got there?
For the 63% figure, it's straightforward. Odds of not getting infected are 0. 999 per act. For 2 acts, odds of not getting infected at first one AND not getting infected on the second one are 0. 999*0. 999. For 1000 acts, that's. 9991000 = 0. 37. So, odds of getting it (at least once) are 1-0.37 = 63%. Where did Betong & I go wrong (if we did)?
Not that it makes any difference in reality. Odds eventually catch up with those who are repeatedly reckless.
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[QUOTE=Crocodilexp; 1164959]That's different than 63. Would you care to elaborate on how you got there?
For the 63% figure, it's straightforward. Odds of not getting infected are 0. 999 per act. For 2 acts, odds of not getting infected at first one AND not getting infected on the second one are 0. 999*0. 999. For 1000 acts, that's. 9991000 = 0. 37. So, odds of getting it (at least once) are 1-0. 37 = 63. Where did Betong & I go wrong (if we did)? Not that it makes any difference in reality. Odds eventually catch up with those who are repeatedly reckless.
[/QUOTE]
You raised 0.999 to 1000th power (36. 7%) so you ignored the odds of getting infected on the first try AND on the second try AND on the third try. And, in that case you are still infected. That is why it is binominial and not cumulative. In other words, you came up with the probability of getting it (or not getting it, which would be the complement) exactly once, not getting it at least once. I used Excel's statistics function to come up with the binomial probability.
In lay terms, you flipped a coin twice and correctly determined the odds of it coming up heads exactly once was 1 in 4, but you ignored the odds of it coming up heads AT LEAST once, which is 3/4.
I misquoted your number (I quoted the complement of it, the 36.7% instead of 63.3%, which is what my number should have been compared to) in my original post. That exaggerated the difference between our two numbers. Sorry.
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Bullshit
[QUOTE=Antipopular; 1164658]Probability does not work that way.
The chance is. 5% EVERYTIME, it is not an additive scale.
With that said, the probability figure was derived from self-reported sexual activity and the appearance (or lack of) of HIV in their main partner. Other risky behavior on a per-sex basis would vastly increase this number.[/QUOTE]Chance is 0. 0005% if your a male rooting a female. FACT. No argument. I don't say this, the smart people that are doctors are doing the surveys. As stated 1 in every 2000 get it. You may get HIv on the 1st root, you may get it on the last. But after 5. 6 years, chances are U will get it!
I've fucked all over Africa, Asia and to a small extent Europe and if we go by your rule of thumb of. 5% I would be taking anti viral's by now.
Nuff said