Rants and WTF are you talking about and Coronavirus!

[QUOTE=Tuber19;2496729]Its obvious to me that many people don't know what risk is of having Covid 19.

Media focusing on deaths and cases of Covid is just feeding the fear of the virus for everyone while its known as a fact by data that the risk is very very low for the vast majority of people.

Fact ((150,000 people who die each day across the globe)) almost 55 Million each year, and still Covid is treated like the end of the world with many restricted life for everyone and yet we are talking about going back to normal life with 55 million death! That is nonsense.

I know many are scared, if you want to be safe just stay at your house until you get a vaccine I don't mind.

But I don't get why many scared people just want everyone to follow them! Just as if they will not be safe until everyone is safe!! Again nonsense.

I'm not liking thie overreacting to the virus , and I hope a vaccine will arrive soon and this Pandamec comes to an end.

Good Luck and stay safe.[/QUOTE]Try reframing your idea of risk assessment and expand your perception of why these events unfolded as they have in order to understand why this is such a major public health crisis.

[B]1 in 500[/B] 1 in 500 people in the western world's general population at large have been hospitalized. Amongst people under 50 years old, 1 in 750. Those numbers will only rise; that's mathematically guaranteed. Mind you, that statistic is with mitigation efforts in place. What if we had kept society 100% open? What would be the rate of hospitalization if the virus was free to spread before we reach herd immunity? 1 in 250? 1 in 100?

Point is, death is not the only consequence worthy of consideration. While I support making attempts to resume society and also share the same criticism of sensational media outlets, we must first, at the very least, recognize the severity of this pandemic in order to understand how serious of a public health crisis this can really be.

I treat them as soliloquies arguing with a straw man that he disagrees with; the straw man changes with the nature and topic of the argument.

An example being this present comment from yours truly.

[QUOTE=ExpatLover;2496897]EL: it is not only a problem of diet, we should never forget that in India, 600 millions people (half of the population) don't have a daily access to toilet, that water supply is also a big concern. On top of that some cultural and religion beliefs, some of my Indian Hindu friends told me many times this joke: Indian bath 2 times in their life, birth and death. To be more serious, it is very difficult to imagine that 60 years back India and China were more or less at the same level of development, today China is probably the number one super power with highways, high speed trains everywhere, when at the same time there is no highway, 0 high speed train (train network is still from the British time) in India, and despite a lot of energy spent the things are moving so slowly in the very conservative Indian society.[/QUOTE]

Ah yeah, Muslims wash a lot more too. Wudu they call it. Lol @ that joke.

Not to get too philsophical but some might argue that China's success versus India's also suggests the limits of the idea that unfettered democracy is better than limited socialism.

[QUOTE=Jmioffe;2496964]Ah yeah, Muslims wash a lot more too. Wudu they call it. Lol @ that joke.

Not to get too philsophical but some might argue that China's success versus India's also suggests the limits of the idea that unfettered democracy is better than limited socialism.[/QUOTE]Yeah It's called WAZU.

[QUOTE=Mursenary;2496829]No one ever knows to who you are replying. "Reply with Quote".[/QUOTE]That's true LOL xD.

[QUOTE=Tuber19;2496729]Its obvious to me that many people don't know what risk is of having Covid 19.

Media focusing on deaths and cases of Covid is just feeding the fear of the virus for everyone while its known as a fact by data that the risk is very very low for the vast majority of people.

Fact ((150,000 people who die each day across the globe)) almost 55 Million each year, and still Covid is treated like the end of the world with many restricted life for everyone and yet we are talking about going back to normal life with 55 million death! That is nonsense.

I know many are scared, if you want to be safe just stay at your house until you get a vaccine I don't mind.

But I don't get why many scared people just want everyone to follow them! Just as if they will not be safe until everyone is safe!! Again nonsense.

I'm not liking thie overreacting to the virus , and I hope a vaccine will arrive soon and this Pandamec comes to an end.

Good Luck and stay safe.[/QUOTE]What is sure this virus is quite aggressive, so many top politicians, mayor. Stars got sick and they have all the means to protects themselves. I never listen any politicians and try to make my own opinion taking info from differents sources in French. , English and German, Contrary to all what was said months before the second wave is already there and nothing have changed in the last 6 months, only solution is to quarantine again millions of people with all the terrible consequences: no treatment, no vaccine nothing the same means like in the middle age.

[QUOTE=Jmioffe;2496888]The pimping is more a North American phenomenon. I think sex trafficking by black people is less prevalent in Europe. WGs may have the same qualms when a Romanian guy shows up in the club.[/QUOTE]Never heard about black guys pimping in FKK land, don't know for US paid sex, but I confirm many Romanian WGs don't want to go with Romanian guys, like many German girls don't want to go with Balkanians, Albanians. They go with Turkish, when many German girls are turkish pimped.

[QUOTE=Mursenary;2496901]Try reframing your idea of risk assessment and expand your perception of why these events unfolded as they have in order to understand why this is such a major public health crisis.

[B]1 in 500[/B] 1 in 500 people in the western world's general population at large have been hospitalized. Amongst people under 50 years old, 1 in 750. Those numbers will only rise; that's mathematically guaranteed. Mind you, that statistic is with mitigation efforts in place. What if we had kept society 100% open? What would be the rate of hospitalization if the virus was free to spread before we reach herd immunity? 1 in 250? 1 in 100?

Point is, death is not the only consequence worthy of consideration. While I support making attempts to resume society and also share the same criticism of sensational media outlets, we must first, at the very least, recognize the severity of this pandemic in order to understand how serious of a public health crisis this can really be.[/QUOTE]I do agree with most of what you said BUT I want to disagree on one point (mitigation).

You assumed -as a fact- That mitigation worked well, you think it really did well as number you post suggest that mitigation reduced hospitalization from (1 in 500) to 1 in 250 or 1 in 100 ! Thats huge affect, so you suggest mitigation saved more than have of the population or it is 50% to 80% effective!! I really doubt that. Even a vaccine might not be as much effective as that, I really think the opposite, I think mitigation has limited affect maybe between 2-10 % at most and that's how I can explain why many countries with tight restriction have more deaths per capita than other countries with soft restrictions. Mitigation is like a very weak treatment. It dosent really work.

That said, I know its not a strong argument but its only my view, what I really think is a good point against mitigation is (myFreedom to decide what's best to my heath) I can value my risks and decide whether I want to travel or not, go to work or not, go to the mall or not, wear a mask or not. Etc. Giving politician the power to decide who to go out and when and why is ridiculous.

[QUOTE=Tuber19;2497035]That said, I know its not a strong argument but its only my view, what I really think is a good point is Freedom to decide what's best to me, I can value my risks and decide whether I want to travel or not, go to work or not, go to the mall or not, wear a mask or not. Etc. Giving politician the power to decide who to go out and when and why is ridiculous.[/QUOTE]In an ideal world you are 100% correct. But sadly there are a lot of stupid people in the world. Just look at any Trump rally. And though civil liberties are important, it's also important to protect societies from stupid people. That would include people who believe they should be able to drive drunk, or stupid people who believe they should be able to stockpile machine guns and grenade launchers. Also US courts have upheld forced hospitalizations of Tuberculosis patients. There's a place for limiting rights, and it's done all the time.

[QUOTE=Tuber19;2497035]I do agree with most of what you said BUT I want to disagree on one point (mitigation).

You assumed -as a fact- That mitigation worked well, you think it really did well as number you post suggest that mitigation reduced hospitalization from (1 in 500) to 1 in 250 or 1 in 100 ! Thats huge affect, so you suggest mitigation saved more than have of the population or it is 50% to 80% effective!! I really doubt that. Even a vaccine might not be as much effective as that, I really think the opposite, I think mitigation has limited affect maybe between 2-10 % at most and that's how I can explain why many countries with tight restriction have more deaths per capita than other countries with soft restrictions. Mitigation is like a very weak treatment. It dosent really work.

That said, I know its not a strong argument but its only my view, what I really think is a good point against mitigation is (myFreedom to decide what's best to my heath) I can value my risks and decide whether I want to travel or not, go to work or not, go to the mall or not, wear a mask or not. Etc. Giving politician the power to decide who to go out and when and why is ridiculous.[/QUOTE]How quickly we've forgotten NYC, Milan, and Wuhan where hospitals were overrun leading to double digit death rates. Current death rates are less than 1%. That was the effect with no mitigation.

[URL]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7125421/[/URL]

[URL]https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/new-york-citys-covid-19-death-rate-has-dropped-in-recent-months-11603388389[/URL]

If n in 1000 is the predicted rate of hospitalization, at what point in in the USA is in an emergency reached, or put differently:

When will ICU be overwhelmed? (n in 1000)

When will casualty be overwhelmed? (see above)

What is the crisis rate, and why does colder weather necessarily portend higher incidence?

COVID is real; FKK is a super spreader environment. On the other hand, the economy and our society is in deep shit, and we need to have a real chat about trade offs, in just the same way that dialysis rationing was once playing god. The folks here are smart enough to see all the implicit moral judgements and bastard type arguments "they are old anyway. "; we all received a death sentence at birth. Beyond that is merely statistical. Many people under 30 see this as a bunch of terrified boomers. It does seem heavily tilted to aged care homes and medical crumbles. Deep economic shit can create wars, civil and otherwise. Lack of beautiful young girls to provide fun is sad. So is lack of travel. A morning BJ and pretty smile cheers a fellow up!

[QUOTE=Tuber19;2497035] Even a vaccine might not be as much effective as that, I really think the opposite, I think mitigation has limited affect maybe between 2-10 % at most and that's how I can explain why many countries with tight restriction have more deaths per capita than other countries with soft restrictions. Mitigation is like a very weak treatment. It dosent really work. [/QUOTE]This is another fake argument circulating around. "Restrictions" are meaningless without effective enforcement and with widespread non-compliance across populations. This for example has been a huge problem in the Americas, in countries such as Colombia and Peru, and in the US and most notably, in my home state of Florida. This was all hashed out BTW in the Colombia forum on the "Stupid Shit in Medellin" thread while the Fox News crowd kicked and screamed and ignored the evidence. I'm not posting all the links to sources over again, but you are free to go there and dig up the discussions. Bottom line, those guys and their man Trump have been dead wrong, but it's too late for them to admit it as too much is at stake. Is tough, to say the very least, for someone to admit that their wrong opinions and policies have been responsible for the needless deaths of thousands and thousands of people.

Kris was pretty hot. Tight grip, endless suction, can do any position, walk on ceiling, trained in male anatomy and sex tricks, great kisser, and no diseases, COVID, pregnancy, toilet stops, periods, jealousy etc. Just add the chess, chef, massage therapist, psychologist and <insert module, languages, pre-programmed memory/temprament> and you have the perfect mate. Roy messed it up with consciousness, but was compassionate in the end. Themes of slavery abound in history, this was just another take. Still, maybe it would be good for MANkind.

[QUOTE=PahllusMaximus;2497080]If n in 1000 is the predicted rate of hospitalization, at what point in in the USA is in an emergency reached, or put differently:

When will ICU be overwhelmed? (n in 1000)

When will casualty be overwhelmed? (see above)

What is the crisis rate, and why does colder weather necessarily portend higher incidence?.[/QUOTE]Cold. Concentration indoors. Respiratory spread.

We in the USA have already been overwhelmed twice, once in April, and again in June / July, and are seeing the beginnings of the third episode.

You and everyone here have the same access to google, cdc, ecdc, and who data that I do if you want to determine length of stay, total beds available, and ICU mortality in order to calculate your estimated critical value for the healthcare system to be overwhelmed. It's beyond my scope of expertise. Perhaps you can crunch the numbers and report back to me this time.

[QUOTE=ExpatLover;2496897]EL: it is not only a problem of diet, we should never forget that in India, 600 millions people (half of the population) don't have a daily access to toilet, that water supply is also a big concern. On top of that some cultural and religion beliefs, some of my Indian Hindu friends told me many times this joke: Indian bath 2 times in their life, birth and death. To be more serious, it is very difficult to imagine that 60 years back India and China were more or less at the same level of development, today China is probably the number one super power with highways, high speed trains everywhere, when at the same time there is no highway, 0 high speed train (train network is still from the British time) in India, and despite a lot of energy spent the things are moving so slowly in the very conservative Indian society.[/QUOTE]For Western world, China is number 1 for human rights and freedom for citizens with many who live afraid, also for truth, level of quality and reliability. I don't plan to buy more a MG than a Tata car and Chinese vaccine would not be allowed in France, after tests reliability. Great quality for us. As I told to German Stella at Palace, I brush my teeth only once a year, still having nearly all my real teeth, over 50, and climbing up Agnel 2744 m high on Sunday with snow on road on last kilometer, it was just a day in Paradise when I drove from Koln to South French Alps for this, my best French test, best quality, after really cleaning German autobahn between south Karlsruhe and north Freiburg, even missing more than 50 horsepower, waiting for new engine, Audi accepted to change after 1 year fight.