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[QUOTE=MrHo;2525630]I think it will be more like change of the ownership of some FKK clubs than closing for good because I imagine the license to operate FKK clubs are hard to obtain, so lucrative thing to sell!?[/QUOTE]It depends if the pandemic comes to an end soon because no one will invest in a club if the club stays closed during two thirds of the year.
[QUOTE=ExpatLover;2525454]You are probably right, the question when will it be post covid, it looks like that more and more there are doubts about the vaccine efficiency specially against the Brazil or south African variants, Manaus had also reached a herd immunity of 70% and now is again hardly hit with the new variant, not really encouraging, even Pfister is speaking today about a new shot which will be needed to better protect the people. In Europe the situation is getting worse and worse and probably France will go for the 3rd lockdown Thursday. I am afraid that we will have to live many years with that covid and the different variants and that there will not be a unique remedy like for the normal flue which we were able to put under control.[/QUOTE]I have already made my estimation. I won't think about travelling this year. I will probably start to think about travelling in summer, 2022. I will probably actually travel some time in 2023.
Are FKK Clubs open? If not, do anyone know when they will open?
[QUOTE=Turgid;2525765]I have already made my estimation. I won't think about travelling this year. I will probably start to think about travelling in summer, 2022. I will probably actually travel some time in 2023.[/QUOTE]I hope to do some domestic travel this year. Then hopefully international in 2022.
[QUOTE=Gfefan;2525776]Are FKK Clubs open? If not, do anyone know when they will open?[/QUOTE]4 in Switzerland, until 7 pm. 1 is only direkt zimmer.
[QUOTE=Mongerer88;2525606]If there is a belief that international business traffic will not return to a significant level, I think it will be difficult for investors to back new budget airlines. I think this is going to be made worse by the loans that governments have made to the large flagship carriers. Why would governments subsidize new low-cost carriers when they stand the best chance of being repaid with existing large carriers being able to charge significant fares? [/QUOTE]I believe there is a real possibility that "business travel" will not return to a significant level, but I imagine that the demand for leisure will return to normal levels. I would assume that over 95 percent of people on a budget airline are leisure travellers. Ryanair is a budget airline that is the most profitable in Europe. But to your point, long-haul budget airlines haven't been able to replicate the success of Ryanair using no-frills, ancillary services business model.
[QUOTE=Mongerer88;2525606]And there will be a large number of American travelers who saved up vacation funds during the pandemic without actually vacationing. I think they will pay $1,500 - $2,000 each for tickets to Europe, the major carriers will fill that sweet spot of 75-85 percent capacity, but the overall demand will not be significant enough to allow a resurgence of low-cost carriers to enter the market for a few years, and we won't see the bargain fares and the nice availability of business class seats at low mileage award levels like we did the last few years. But I could be very much wrong. I didn't think the stock markets would soar like they have during the pandemic, and I tend to be a pessimist.
So hopefully your forecast analysis will be more accurate than mine.[/QUOTE]TBH, I am not that confident in my forecast. Mostly just optimism.
Some interesting statistics on USA outbound travel. Broken down by reason for travel, age range, state of residence, destination, ethnicity, and much more. Perhaps someone can find insights in there.
[URL]https://www.beyondsummits.com/sites/default/files/downloads/reports/%E7%BE%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%87%BA%E5%A2%83%E6%B8%B8%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A%EF%BC%88%E8%8B%B1%E6%96%87%E7%89%88%EF%BC%89.pdf[/URL]
[URL]https://travel.trade.gov/outreachpages/download_data_table/2019-Outbound-Overseas.xlsx[/URL]
[URL]https://travel.trade.gov/outreachpages/download_data_table/2010_Outbound_Profile.pdf[/URL]
[URL]https://travel.trade.gov/outreachpages/download_data_table/2019-Outbound-Europe.xlsx[/URL]
[QUOTE=BigBuddy69;2525688]It depends if the pandemic comes to an end soon because no one will invest in a club if the club stays closed during two thirds of the year.[/QUOTE]That is one way to look at it, but it is good to buy not now, but soon as it is expected to open at least in 2022, so those surviving cost can be deducted from the investment amount, why 2022, well that is the are one has to gamble as investment has some gambling nature to it unfortunately!
2021, we will partly live with pandemic I think. But nobody knows! Vaccines thing is very promising news!
[QUOTE=TheCane;2525810]I hope to do some domestic travel this year. Then hopefully international in 2022.[/QUOTE]Bring back some good old Americana, just do not monger there, 2021 is make a good use of your illusion and your right hand LOL!
In 2022. You will be in promise land, putting it in her mouth LOL!
[QUOTE=McAdonis;2525865]I believe there is a real possibility that "business travel" will not return to a significant level, but I imagine that the demand for leisure will return to normal levels. I would assume that over 95 percent of people on a budget airline are leisure travellers. Ryanair is a budget airline that is the most profitable in Europe. But to your point, long-haul budget airlines haven't been able to replicate the success of Ryanair using no-frills, ancillary services business model.
TBH, I am not that confident in my forecast. Mostly just optimism.[/QUOTE]No numbers here to back up my suspicions, just anecdotes and assumptions. I would say that in comparison to business travel, the numbers for intercontinental travel would skew more towards leisure travel than American domestic and EU transcontinental flights. I know that I find that the average price of tickets from US to Europe are much more heavily discounted in the winter months than for domestic tickets. That observation is reinforced by the observation that intercontinental travel prices in the winter do briefly rise around the Christmas travel season due to increased personal / leisure travel. The reasoning for the price fluctuation pattern I suspect to be that business travel volume fluctuates less during summer holiday months than leisure travel volume. If that assumption is correct and with the fact that the upper middle class (the group that does the bulk of international leisure travel) have actually saved a lot of money during this pandemic, perhaps the prediction that international travel can come back with much less loss in revenue than domestic travel and thus less change in prices would prove to be accurate.
I think one major problem with discount carriers not being able to make the leap into the intercontinental travel market is the unavoidable international travel and airport fees. Once I booked a crazy cheap US-Paris flight on Delta for $345. When looking at the price breakdown of the ticket, I saw that taxes and fees were around $400 and the actual ticket price being $75. At face value, the cost of the ticket was $475. Then I noticed that I received an airline status holder rebate that dropped my cost to under $350. Point is, if fees are set at such a high amount, I'm not sure if there is a way to cut frills and amenities enough to allow discount carriers to offer prices low enough to both lure discount travelers while also covering expense of operation to break even, much less be profitable. If Ryan Air was to offer $500 tickets, why would I choose them over a legacy carrier plane that might only be $50-$100 more, if at all? I routinely find winter tickets with legacy carriers for less than $600. If regulatory and airport fees set an overhead at $400, there's not much room for these discount guys to find their place in the market. The only possible business model I see is if they offered seasonal flights at discount prices in the summer to siphon some of the high profit margin summer tickets from the legacy carriers.
[QUOTE=Turgid;2525765]I have already made my estimation. I won't think about travelling this year. I will probably start to think about travelling in summer, 2022. I will probably actually travel some time in 2023.[/QUOTE]And we say this every year now LOL Last year was summer 2021, this year is summer 2022 LOL!
[QUOTE=McAdonis;2525865]I believe there is a real possibility that "business travel" will not return to a significant level, but I imagine that the demand for leisure will return to normal levels. I would assume that over 95 percent of people on a budget airline are leisure travellers. Ryanair is a budget airline that is the most profitable in Europe. But to your point, long-haul budget airlines haven't been able to replicate the success of Ryanair using no-frills, ancillary services business model.
TBH, I am not that confident in my forecast. Mostly just optimism.
Some interesting statistics on USA outbound travel. Broken down by reason for travel, age range, state of residence, destination, ethnicity, and much more. Perhaps someone can find insights in there.
[URL]https://www.beyondsummits.com/sites/default/files/downloads/reports/%E7%BE%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%87%BA%E5%A2%83%E6%B8%B8%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A%EF%BC%88%E8%8B%B1%E6%96%87%E7%89%88%EF%BC%89.pdf[/URL]
[URL]https://travel.trade.gov/outreachpages/download_data_table/2019-Outbound-Overseas.xlsx[/URL]
[URL]https://travel.trade.gov/outreachpages/download_data_table/2010_Outbound_Profile.pdf[/URL]
[URL]https://travel.trade.gov/outreachpages/download_data_table/2019-Outbound-Europe.xlsx[/URL][/QUOTE]Speaking of budget airlines has anyone got a refund from a budget airline for covid cancelled travel?
[QUOTE=Turgid;2526073]Speaking of budget airlines has anyone got a refund from a budget airline for covid cancelled travel?[/QUOTE]I got refunds from easyjet and eurowings for flights within Europe.
[QUOTE=MrHo;2525883]Bring back some good old Americana, just do not monger there, 2021 is make a good use of your illusion and your right hand LOL!
In 2022. You will be in promise land, putting it in her mouth LOL![/QUOTE]Side note, hasn't Brazil and Colombia been basically open the entire time? Thinking guys who really need to scratch that itch could be a little flexible and head there instead.
Even though I'm confident that most western nations are at the peak of cases and suspect that the worst is behind us (with perhaps a week or so for peak deaths to catch up), expecting complete normalcy in the next 6 months might be a fool's run.
Cases won't just drop to near zero in only a month or two. Unless governments maintain a strict lockdown, cases will probably just see a slow dwindle with deaths lagging behind. With policy and execution lagging behind even longer, and the even longer period to wait for behavior changes, it will definitely be several months to open much less fill the clubs.
Too much can happen between now and 2022 so it would be difficult to predict so far out but unless there is a very specific mutation at the vaccine binding site, and said mutation does not alter the ability for the virus to still be pathogenic, it's not so likely that we will have a continuation of 2020 that far out.
[QUOTE=Mursenary;2525884]No numbers here to back up my suspicions, just anecdotes and assumptions. I would say that in comparison to business travel, the numbers for intercontinental travel would skew more towards leisure travel than American domestic and EU transcontinental flights. I know that I find that the average price of tickets from US to Europe are much more heavily discounted in the winter months than for domestic tickets. That observation is reinforced by the observation that intercontinental travel prices in the winter do briefly rise around the Christmas travel season due to increased personal / leisure travel. The reasoning for the price fluctuation pattern I suspect to be that business travel volume fluctuates less during summer holiday months than leisure travel volume..[/QUOTE]Statistics that I found do not break down business versus leisure, but the peak travel month from USA to Europe is June. The least busiest months in order are: February, January, November, December. I was surprised to see that more Americans travel to Europe than to Canada, especially since the two biggest Canadian cities can be reached by car from the most populous city, NYC. [URL]https://travel.trade.gov/view/m-2019-O-001/index.html[/URL].
[QUOTE=Mursenary;2525884]If Ryan Air was to offer $500 tickets, why would I choose them over a legacy carrier plane that might only be $50-$100 more, if at all? I routinely find winter tickets with legacy carriers for less than $600. If regulatory and airport fees set an overhead at $400, there's not much room for these discount guys to find their place in the market. The only possible business model I see is if they offered seasonal flights at discount prices in the summer to siphon some of the high profit margin summer tickets from the legacy carriers.[/QUOTE]Around 2007, Ryanair flirted with idea of long haul, but now they are firmly against the idea: [URL]https://simpleflying.com/ryanair-long-haul-low-cost/[/URL].
IDK if Lufthansa's subsidiary Eurowings still operates long-haul, low cost flights, but I remember a German WG told me that she had taken a Eurowings flight 2-3 years ago to USA. I do not remember the exact price, but I think it was 350-450 EUR. She had transitioned to a regular job following the 2017 laws, and so her schedule was more rigid. If her dates had been flexible, then she could have found a cheaper ticket with a legacy carrier.
[QUOTE=BigBuddy69;2526092]I got refunds from easyjet and eurowings for flights within Europe.[/QUOTE]You may get refunds from some LCC, but you ain't getting refund from any tutes in FKK LOL!