You believe, but you don't know.
[QUOTE=DramaFree11;2807774]M.
You guys are dreaming that there will be a Spring Offensive from Ukraine, they are finished.
I do believe that parts of the reports are true, but this guy was probably set-up by the CIA. Interesting how the media is suddenly talking about corruption in Ukraine government. Something is definitely up. The Ukraine military has done an amazing job and totally over achieved, but they are done, time negotiations, that should have happened, 13 months ago.[/QUOTE]Speculations are a dime a dozen, so forgive me if I toss your contribution on the pile with the rest of them.
As for a Spring counteroffensive, I would argue that launching one is a military, social, and political imperative for Ukraine. Russia doesn't really have any internal or external audiences they need to satisfy. Even if the ultra-nationalists aren't satisfied, there's not much they can do about it.
Ukraine, in stark contrast, has both internal and external audiences who have expectations that need to be managed or met. The Ukrainian people certainly expect their leaders to produce something, or to at least make the effort. They're understanding of the fact that resources are limited, but it's doubtful they'd be understanding of inaction. I have no particular allegiance to Zelensky and, if calls come for him to step down and be replaced by the Defense Minister, Head of the Armed Forces, or someone else, I don't think that would cause insurmountable problems.
On the external front, Europe and the US are less likely to continue robust support if things devolve into a stalemate. Right now it's rasputitsa season, which makes large-scale offensive campaigns impractical. I've seen various estimates that weather and road conditions will be favorable starting around mid-May. Only Ukraine knows their own timetable, but I'd be highly surprised if something significant doesn't happen by June.
Mind you, I'm not predicting how things will turn out on the battlefield. I'm simply noting that the pressure is on Ukraine to take some initiative. Whether it succeeds or not depends on a set of variables about which no reasonable observer or analyst would pretend to have full knowledge.
Those who think they have a crystal ball should at least be honest enough to admit that so many past 'expert predictions' have been way off the mark. Unfortunately, intellectual integrity and humility are in desperately short supply nowadays.
Russia is the dying patient.
[QUOTE=Questner;2807798][URL]https://youtu.be/Vc_3I1E3QYE[/URL]
After 30 years of neglect and abuse of her own body and soul the mortally ill patient is on an operation table.[/QUOTE]And, when it dies, there will be no mourning and no memorial service. The civilized world will stand aside and watch as dogs fight over pieces of the putrid corpse.
Official narratives run both ways.
[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2807948]To make fun of guys like you who swallow the official narrative whole. You are as real on Ukraine as you were on Covid.[/QUOTE]Anyone who uncritically swallows either the pro-Russia or the pro-Ukraine narrative is a gullible idiot. The only things that matter are actual facts on the ground. Using that as a metric, here are some relevant observations:
1. Russia currently controls much less territory than they did in the immediate aftermath of their invasion.
2. Russia appears to be having difficulty replacing modern equipment used or destroyed in battle. The evidence for this is their use of refurbished older tank models and the dramatic decrease in their missile usage.
3. Russia currently has the explicit or implicit support, in the material sense, of China, Iran, and North Korea. Ukraine currently has the explicit or implicit support of the US, most of Europe, and other significant countries like Japan, Australia, Canada, etc.
I could go on, but the above items make my point. Narratives are fueled in many ways (personal likes, dislikes, other emotional considerations, etc.), but actual facts are stubborn things. People who cling to their preferred narrative are often the same ones who believe they can predict outcomes. The stubborn facts, however, have confounded many such pseudo-experts. I fully expect that trend to continue.
P.S. One's past position on COVID, or any other issue, is completely irrelevant to the Ukraine discussion. A classic red herring fallacy, if ever there was one.
"We don't leave our own behind"
Up to 82% of the wounded and sick military defense forces return to duty after treatment. According to the president of the National Academy of Medical Sciences, the mortality rate at the stage of evacuation from the battlefield has decreased to 1. 35%. The new Military Medical Doctrine of Ukraine follows the Israeli practice where all civilian hospitals become military hospitals at the same time.
[URL]https://global.espreso.tv/up-to-82-of-ukrainian-military-return-to-service-after-treatment-for-wounds-and-diseases[/URL]
Severely wounded Russians, on the other hand, are as good as dead. If they can't get back on their own, the help will never come. We-don't-leave-our-own-behind, my ass.
1 photos
Chinese lessons will be very handy for the Muscovites
[URL]https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1647319027738353668[/URL]
Russian State TV now shows advertising for Russian Women to marry Chinese Men. Promising them a better life.
Guess those Chinese lessons will be more and more essential.
The subservience and subordination or Russia to the CCP is going really well.
Putin is most definitely notlooking forward to meeting his Maker.
[QUOTE=Questner;2808068]The message on Orthodox Easter: "Say unto God, How terrible art thou in thy works! Through the greatness of thy power shall thine enemies submit themselves unto thee. ".[/QUOTE]And, when he does, he'll get to experience "How terrible art thou" on a first-hand basis. For the sake of Ukrainians AND Russians, let's hope that happens soon.
Maybe he can pay one of his KGB-priests for some absolution? Unfortunately, when he arrives at the pearly gates, anything he shows will have been flagged as a pirated copy!
Separating the essential from the tangential
[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2808062]Yeah, it does not look like it.
I do not know, DF. The story is one so screwed up that it probably is something even the CIA could not come up with.
If the leaked files were misinformation and disinformation, why did he get arrested? The executive branch amazingly could not find out who leaked the abortion brief at SCOTUS but they had this guy in days. It is almost like the executive branch wanted the abortion leaker to go free. That person did not mess with their narrative.
What is true is the narrative is breaking down. Putin is Hitler but Hitler conquered most of Europe in the time Putin has not conquered Ukraine. Putin is insane except when it comes to nuclear war and then he is rational.
The Covid bullshit was a narrative from the same play book. Anyone against Fauci and his teams idiotic approach to Covid meant you wanted people dead with Covid. Of course, none of their brain dead treatments did much of anything except waste away trillions of dollars. Anyone against that fucker Fauci was anti-science and wanted people to die. Then we later learned that fucker Fauci funded the creation of Covid to begin with and edited a "scientific" paper that said anyone who said Covid came from a lab was engaging in conspiracy theory. So the so called expert who was calling all the shots was personally and probably financially benefitting from a crisis he caused.
And the same is true here. Biden provokes Putin into war and then gets billions to spend in any way he sees fit. I think he has a $100 billion slush fund for Ukraine and has only spent $30 billion of it. Like I said, I know for a fact Biden was spoiling for some kind of war. Putin just accommodated him. If anyone questions the spending on the war the same as how I questioned the spending on Covid, you get the predictable response. You a Putin bootlicker? You want to suck his dick?
Yeah, Ukraine has done better than expected. However, did you ever see anything in Russia that impressive? With me, I liked the art, the theater / ballet, the ice cream, and that was about it. Any impressive modern structure in Russia was built by someone other than the Russians. I just wonder how much of Ukraine doing this well in the war was Ukraine and how much of it was horrific Russian incompetence. I know how good the suppliers are on our end, and I am sure the Russian side pales in comparison.
As for predictions, that is easy. Thousands / millions will die for nothing. Trillions of dollars will be wasted. The war will end once there is no more money in it for the weapons makers, both sides will declare victory, and nothing fundamentally will have changed. Isn't that the way every war has gone since WW2/ Korea?
Meanwhile, there is this going on, [URL]https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/11/58percent-of-americans-are-living-paycheck-to-paycheck-cnbc-survey-reveals.html[/URL].
And this is my Tucker Carlson source, "More than half, or 58%, of all Americans are now living paycheck to paycheck, according to the CNBC Your Money Financial Confidence Survey, conducted in partnership with Momentive. ".
Oh yeah, we really need to spend trillions more in Ukraine. With the amount of money we spent on weapons, we could have bought all the land in the fucking country by now. At least then we would have something to show for all this. At best we are going to get bullshit assurances that Putin has been stopped.[/QUOTE]Some essential (core) issues:
1. Russia started the war and can stop it anytime. The 'provoked' BS has already been thoroughly debunked in this forum, so no need to go there again. Of course, those who have drunk the "Russia as victim" kool-aid continue to overlook the clear debunkment evidence.
2. There is every reason to believe, from statements by Russia and from Putin himself (re 'historic' Russian lands), that Russia will not stop with Ukraine.
3. Ukraine has correctly assessed the situation as an existential threat. Simply stated, if they lose they will cease to exist. As a consequence, they will continue to resist irrespective of whether they receive external support.
4. External actors offer or withhold support (to either side) according to their individual assessment of the threat and their own interests. As one example, those Western countries closest to the conflict (Poland, Baltics, Nordics, etc.), have generally adopted the Ukrainian (existential threat) view of things.
Everything else is tangential. That doesn't mean that some tangential items aren't important (such as the level of external support), it simply means that changes in tangential items won't change the essential items listed above.
Some examples of tangential (not a complete list) issues:
1. The intel leak, whether it was orchestrated or not, is clearly tangential. It affects none of the core items. It may have some effect on tactics or timing, but those are not core items.
2. Weapons makers profits have been a feature of probably every conflict in the history of man. Anyone using that as a metric in deciding whether or not a conflict is worth fighting is missing the point. Wars are fought over essential issues, not tangential ones.
3. The level of support received from external actors is dynamic, and will inevitably fluctuate. It's not static because any reduction in one area could be (fully or partially) offset by an increase in another. If, for example, the US reduced support for Ukraine, it's not unreasonable to believe Europe (esp those who feel most threatened) would ramp up support.
4. There will always be other spending priorities that allow for the "Why are we spending $$ on this war when we should be spending it on X?" argument. This is tangential because it doesn't touch on the core issues as to why the war is being fought. For Ukraine, cost is irrelevant because their survival is at stake. For others, they can adjust as they choose, dependent on their own interests, but that doesn't change the core issues.
5. Narratives, from either side, are quintessential examples of tangential issues. The only narrative that will truly matter is the one written after the fact, and based on the reality of what happened on the battlefield and in geopolitical arena.
In sum, those who focus on the tangential are missing the signal for the noise. And those who base 'predictions' on the tangential are compounding the error.
