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BackdoorD,
Nice, overview of Brasil's economic outlook! Can I ask what sources you generally rely on for your insight? Obviously, you put together your own analysis probably of various sources. I'd like to follow some of the better sources of the Brazilian financial and economic world for my own better understanding.
Thanks!
[QUOTE=BackDoorD;1886323]You know, you can really make the case that Brazil is one of the world's best investment opportunities at the moment (or in the near future). The BRL has lost over 50% of its value relative to the USD in the last year and for the first time in 20 years there are actually distressed asset plays available.
Personally, I suspect the BRL is going to get absolutely shit kicked once either Banco do Brasil or Caixa Federal (two of the state owned banks) require a bail out. Take a look at their non-performing loan levels. They are completely fucked. Also interesting is that fully 40% of Brazilians are currently in default on at least one form of personal credit. Once it becomes broadly understood how unsustainable the government, corporate and even private citizen debt levels really are, I suspect there will be a major flight from the "risk" of Brazil (especially if commodity prices stay low for the next 3-9 months). Petrobras is probably also going to need a bail out if oil doesn't get back above 60 in 12 months. Politically, one of the new president's generals was just recorded trying to kill the ongoing "Lavo Jato" corruption investigation. Once Dilma is officially impeached, if Temer doesn't hold new elections, there may actually be blood in the streets; there's a very low likelihood Temer stays a full year and half. Add it all up and you have a recipe for a major economic hiccup..[/QUOTE]Oh, I have made money in Forex and other markets all along.
I was talking about real investment. Every time I get ready to pony up, it becomes abundantly clear all over again why I didn't the last time.
[QUOTE=Rodeo9112;1886554]BackdoorD,
Nice, overview of Brasil's economic outlook! Can I ask what sources you generally rely on for your insight? Obviously, you put together your own analysis probably of various sources. I'd like to follow some of the better sources of the Brazilian financial and economic world for my own better understanding.
Thanks![/QUOTE]The best source for information on the BR economy is probably Valor ([URL]www.valor.com.br[/URL]). It's the BR version of the Wall Street Journal, but far less sophisticated. A yearly subscription is about USD 100, and you've have to used your browser's embedded translation function to get it in English. If you're looking for something free, Itau, the largest bank in Brazil, has a research app that you can download for free from apple's store or google play and publishes a lot of English research. Their research is pretty good, but they, and every other big bank in Brazil, don't stray too far from the government's message, as banking the Brazilian government is hugely lucrative. If you have access to other investment bank research, JP Morgan's Brazil desk is pretty good. Goldman has been really bearish of late, while 18 months ago they advised a good friend not to hedge BRL 5 m (against my advice) because it was going to cost 10% a year. Would have saved him 40%. I've had other issues with Goldman's Brazil's calls, and I just don't think they've done a good job of fully understanding this market, although I generally do like their research.
Folha de Sao Paulo's economic section is pretty good, while OGlobo's is hit and miss. FSP has an English language option on their site.
There's also a magazine called Exame that's pretty good, but again it's in Portuguese. Good luck!
[QUOTE=BackDoorD;1887041]The best source for information on the BR economy is probably Valor ([URL]www.valor.com.br[/URL]). It's the BR version of the Wall Street Journal, but far less sophisticated. A yearly subscription is about USD 100, and you've have to used your browser's embedded translation function to get it in English. If you're looking for something free, Itau, the largest bank in Brazil, has a research app that you can download for free from apple's store or google play and publishes a lot of English research. Their research is pretty good, but they, and every other big bank in Brazil, don't stray too far from the government's message, as banking the Brazilian government is hugely lucrative. If you have access to other investment bank research, JP Morgan's Brazil desk is pretty good. Goldman has been really bearish of late, while 18 months ago they advised a good friend not to hedge BRL 5 m (against my advice) because it was going to cost 10% a year. Would have saved him 40%. I've had other issues with Goldman's Brazil's calls, and I just don't think they've done a good job of fully understanding this market, although I generally do like their research.
Folha de Sao Paulo's economic section is pretty good, while OGlobo's is hit and miss. FSP has an English language option on their site.
There's also a magazine called Exame that's pretty good, but again it's in Portuguese. Good luck![/QUOTE]Good stuff; thanks!
[QUOTE=Rodeo9112;1886554]BackdoorD,
Nice, overview of Brasil's economic outlook! Can I ask what sources you generally rely on for your insight? Obviously, you put together your own analysis probably of various sources. I'd like to follow some of the better sources of the Brazilian financial and economic world for my own better understanding.
Thanks![/QUOTE]Nothing beats it. Daily I read an outrageous amount, keeping in mind that what is happening in China, for example, may impact the Brazilian economy. News Now is a great site to keep you up to date. I enjoy reading The Economist and Foreign Policy for a more detailed long-term perspective.
[URL]http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Business[/URL]+&+Finance / Economy / International / Brazil.
However, want to know what really is going on? When you are in country, get to know some Cambio and business owners. Want to find out about the real estate market, get to know the people who deal with it every day. When in Rio I regularly visit with hotel owners and staff. Centaurus, Solarium and Monte Carlo are great places to meet and chat with Brazilian businessmen and politicians. Back in the day, those lawn chairs in L'uomo used to be a haven for international businessmen. So much so that the manager would send girls in to distract us from our conversations. You will need to get up to speed on Portuguese paying particular attention to business terminology. And, don't forget the man or woman on the street. Even when you are in the US, there are many opportunities to interact with Brazilians. Join the Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce, for example.
Do avoid 99.99% of Ex-Pats who will try to convince you that they have the next great business idea. Black holes are not only located in space.
[QUOTE=ExecTalent;1887376]Nothing beats it. Daily I read an outrageous amount, keeping in mind that what is happening in China, for example, may impact the Brazilian economy. News Now is a great site to keep you up to date. I enjoy reading The Economist and Foreign Policy for a more detailed long-term perspective.
[URL]http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Business[/URL]+&+Finance / Economy / International / Brazil.
However, want to know what really is going on? When you are in country, get to know some Cambio and business owners. Want to find out about the real estate market, get to know the people who deal with it every day. When in Rio I regularly visit with hotel owners and staff. Centaurus, Solarium and Monte Carlo are great places to meet and chat with Brazilian businessmen and politicians. Back in the day, those lawn chairs in L'uomo used to be a haven for international businessmen. So much so that the manager would send girls in to distract us from our conversations. You will need to get up to speed on Portuguese paying particular attention to business terminology. And, don't forget the man or woman on the street. Even when you are in the US, there are many opportunities to interact with Brazilians. Join the Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce, for example.
Do avoid 99.99% of Ex-Pats who will try to convince you that they have the next great business idea. Black holes are not only located in space.[/QUOTE]Well said sir!
Just wondering what a good price would be on a domestic airline flying from Rio to SP? I'm looking for just an average round trip price for a spur of the moment, last minute, overnight trip. Please note which airline as well.
Thanks in advance!
[QUOTE=Rodeo9112;1889337]Just wondering what a good price would be on a domestic airline flying from Rio to SP? I'm looking for just an average round trip price for a spur of the moment, last minute, overnight trip. Please note which airline as well.
Thanks in advance![/QUOTE]Azul is often cheap ([URL]voeazul.com.br[/URL]), and so is Gol (sometimes, [URL]voegol.com.br[/URL]). When booking go from SDU to CGH (the smaller domestic airports). Book the cheapest flight later in the day you want to travel and then just show up at the airport whenever you actually feel like going and they'll just put you on the next flight for no additional fees. About the only thing Brazil does well is domestic air travel. It's like catching a bus. Just got to the "ponte aerea" desk at the airport if you want to fly earlier. Ponte Aerea literally means air bridge. Rio / SP is the most serviced air travel route in the world, apparently, so you've got a lot of options.
You can get return flights for as low as about are $250, but average is probably closer to are $350 return.
[QUOTE=BackDoorD;1889482]Azul is often cheap ([URL]voeazul.com.br[/URL]), and so is Gol (sometimes, [URL]voegol.com.br[/URL]). When booking go from SDU to CGH (the smaller domestic airports). Book the cheapest flight later in the day you want to travel and then just show up at the airport whenever you actually feel like going and they'll just put you on the next flight for no additional fees. About the only thing Brazil does well is domestic air travel. It's like catching a bus. Just got to the "ponte aerea" desk at the airport if you want to fly earlier. Ponte Aerea literally means air bridge. Rio / SP is the most serviced air travel route in the world, apparently, so you've got a lot of options.
You can get return flights for as low as about are $250, but average is probably closer to are $350 return.[/QUOTE]Cool, thanks! I wonder if anyone has gone garota hunting in SP and brought his blonde / blue eyed beauty back to Rio for a stay.
Besides Rio and São Paulo, where are the best cities / towns for mongering in Brazil? Why?
What does "sou sarada e tarada" mean? "I'm all healed and tared" in the context of adult classifieds does not really make sense to me.
[QUOTE=AllTooHorny;1892296]What does "sou sarada e tarada" mean? "I'm all healed and tared" in the context of adult classifieds does not really make sense to me.[/QUOTE]Ok, Sarada more or less means I am in great shape, like a body builder, do you have a picture of her? I don't know what tarada means but it's probably related since she says and tarada.
[QUOTE=AllTooHorny;1892296]What does "sou sarada e tarada" mean? "I'm all healed and tared" in the context of adult classifieds does not really make sense to me.[/QUOTE]Sarada = shredded / lean muscle physique.
Tarada = generally high sexual prowess.
Just wondering if anyone with insight knows what a working girl's true needs are. Specifically, can we get costs on the following bills from the barrios (in BRL)?
-Electricity.
-Water.
-Gas.
-Groceries (family of 5).
-Childcare.
-[url=http://isgprohibitedwords.info?CodeWord=CodeWord131][CodeWord131][/url].
-Milk (baby formula).
-Airline ticket (say, Roundtrip Rio-Salvador).
-Clinic checkup (OBGYN).
-Low cost hotel for visiting working girls.
-Hair salon appointment.
I just figured being armed with these figures will give a good insight on factors in negotiating. Any thoughts?
Please feel free to add anything I missed!
Rodeo
It's a strange request Rodeo, and one you've just posted in the Colombia board as well. Why?
Are you planning to sugar-daddy a chica and choosing a country to hit on?