2 more cents added to some excellent posts on change
I've been an intermittent visitor for about twenty years, mostly on business with a little mongering on the side. The city has changed dramatically and in my opinion for the better. I'm not sure how much change I've seen in the mongering scene. I've also changed which confounds my perceptions. Seems like the quality has gone down. I wouldn't say the same about the quantity. There may just have been a shift in the sizes of different segments of the industry. As I've grown older very young women who might not have gotten a second glance from me in the past now look attractive; and what were once older ladies now look like younger ladies to me. Even with my glasses on, I question what I see.
Is the P4P scene changing? Everything changes; and changes everywhere seem to be accelerating. Will the current pattern of declining quality, poorer service and increasing prices continue? Don't be so sure. First, I'm not sure prices, adjusted for inflation, have gone up that much. I bet rents in Nana Plaza and Soi Cowboy have inflated more than the cost of drinks and bar fines. I'm not sure the ladies are charging more than their cost of living has increased. Maybe. I'm just not sure. My point is inflation is relative. Is the problem price increases in Bangkok or the failure of salaries and wages in developed countries to keep up with prices in Bangkok? Certainly in recent years Thailand's economy has grown more than the USA and EU.
Second, most people, even many so called experts, see change as a simple linear equation. A straight line with some defined slope. What is happening today will continue to happen in the future at some rate of change (the slope of the line). The problem is change, other than over very short intervals, is nonlinear. Not only do the rates of change accelerate and decelerate, the directions change as well. Think of the old saying, "What goes up must come down."
The current situation in Thailand is relevant to this point. At this moment the consensus opinion of economists in Thailand is the most likely future for the country is rather bleak. That is not to say they believe it will happen. They are saying of all the future possibilities the one that is most likely is very worrisome. There is very real concern that the costs of the rice scheme and the damage it has done to the rice industry have crossed the tipping point. Thailand has been supplanted by India and Vietnam and it will be a battle for Thailand to recapture market share. Japan, who is the largest investor in the Thai economy, rather than expanding it's industrial activities in Thailand is now looking at other countries for future investments. The amount of future debt Thailand's government will be forced to take on and the expected future cost of borrowing will take up more and more of the budget. This is a problem facing other countries, notably the USA, but Thailand's economy is smaller, the baht is not the US$ and the USA has a bunch of aircraft carriers. More money spent servicing debt means less money for infrastructure improvements, public education, health care, etc. The future these economists see is government default on debt (national bankruptcy is the term they are using), high unemployment and a declining standard of living.
As I was flying across the Pacific after my December visit I was wonder: what impact has the rice scheme had on the P4P industry? Rice farmers have been getting 50% above market for rice, which pumps a lot of extra money into the rural economy. There's a lot more money in circulation in many villages in large parts of the country. Would a few thousand more pretty young ladies from villages all over Thailand have descended on Bangkok over the past couple of years had it not been for the inflated prices farmers got for their rice? Sensible people think the rice scheme must and will soon end. But how many sensible people are in the government? It may end when the next government assumes power and starts to deal with the current mess. After a year or so will this mean an increase in the number of pretty young ladies dancing in the gogos? I don't know. Perhaps. Will the rice scheme be continued by the next government. Maybe, but only for a while. It is unsustainable and continuing it will only compress the time frame until the future crash the economists worry about occurs. And if that crash happens, I'm fairly confident the dance stages will be packed with pretty young ladies.
I don't know enough to know if these smart guys are right. I know enough to know I should always question my conclusions. And I've lived long enough to know the only constant is change and change constantly changes.