0.48% chance of getting HIV infection per trip
[QUOTE=SubCmdr;2924195][B]BBFS[/B] 4 out of 10000 [I]as per the CDC[/I].
[URL]https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/risk/estimates/riskbehaviors.html[/URL][/QUOTE]I'm a bit of a geek who has had near zero training in probability, but I wanted to know what my chances are of catching HIV per trip. I made some assumptions: (a) 30% of Thai hookers are HIV positive and in a condition that they can transmit HIV via vaginal sex, (b) 40 BBFSCIP per trip, and (c) 4 in 10,000 applies to me. That 30% number is probably higher than reality, but my 40 BBFSCIP per trip is not too far off. Working through the math (remember near zero probability training, just online reading), I figure my chances of getting HIV on any given trip are 0.48%. So, about 1 in 200 chance of getting infection per trip. That's a risk that I'll run. Here are some other numbers, all assuming 30% of girls are HIV positive and can infect someone.
1 session: 0.01% chance.
10 sessions: 0.12% chance.
100 sessions: 1.19% chance.
1,000 sessions: 11.31% chance.
10,000 sessions: 69.88% chance.
40,000 sessions: 99.18% chance.