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[QUOTE=Questner;2963603]As for a 'pariah' we don't feel it this way, it's just another example of a Western POV. In fact majority of countries by the number, population, territory etc are our friends.[/QUOTE]Sorry, "pariah" was a bad choice of words. I agree.
[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2963548]I feel bad for you having to maintain the official line. RUB / USD is about. 0096 today. From a monetary POV, if it falls below. 0085 it's over. My advice? Sell any Russian stocks and convert as many rubles as you can while you have time.[/QUOTE]That's mostly a function of USA Dollar strength. The dollar's been gaining against most currencies. Russia's current account (trade balance) and external debt are in great shape. Its sovereign reserves would be huge if part hadn't been impounded by western nations, and they're still large. The real interest rate is greater than 10%. In other words, I don't think you have much of a case.
[QUOTE=BloodRed;2963489]Where is the video? Video 'claiming'. LOL. You imbecile.[/QUOTE]Boy, don't I love it when Russian propacondoms are trying to catch me on a lie!
[URL]https://x.com/i/status/1852039145482523086[/URL]
Today:
1 US Dollar = 105.40 Russian Ruble and counting.
And a little history:
- Jan 2014 (pre-Crimea grab): 35 to $1.
- Jan 2015:69 to $1.
- Jan 2022 (pre-Kyiv in 3 days): 77 to $1.
- Nov 2024 (1,000 days post Kyiv in 3 days): 105 to $1 USD.
What was that? Western sanctions have made Russian economy stronger than ever?
Well then, keep up the good work, hehe.
[QUOTE=Tiny12;2963852]That's mostly a function of USA Dollar strength. The dollar's been gaining against most currencies. Russia's current account (trade balance) and external debt are in great shape. Its sovereign reserves would be huge if part hadn't been impounded by western nations, and they're still large. The real interest rate is greater than 10%. In other words, I don't think you have much of a case.[/QUOTE]And don't you ever listen to all those so-called economists and other shit-for-brain "professionals". What the hell do they know, right?
[B]Rouble slides as new Russian sanctions stifle foreign trade[/B]
[URL]https://www.ft.com/content/6189fdb4-d1ef-4e0b-a7f1-e7f9a7286df5[/URL]
[B]Rouble slumps to over two-year low on new sanctions, geopolitical tension[/B]
[URL]https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rouble-slumps-over-two-year-low-new-sanctions-geopolitical-tension-2024-11-22[/URL]
[B]Russian Ruble Hits Lowest Level Against Dollar Since March 2022[/B]
[URL]https://www.barrons.com/articles/russian-ruble-hits-lowest-level-against-us-dollar-since-march-2022-central-bank-bd988a73[/URL]
[QUOTE=Tiny12;2963852]...Russia's current account (trade balance) and external debt are in great shape. Its sovereign reserves would be huge if ...[/QUOTE]Yeah, haha. So far, the only recent hero of the RF has been Elvira Nabiullina, but there's very little that even a superb technocrat like her can do at this point...I'm waiting for her to get pushed out of a window or drink some bad tea. Really, I'm just trying to lay out a little dispassionate macroeconomic advice for the Russians on this forum, which is that the RF is in a downward economic spiral with a declining demographic, exodus of young people and knowledge workers, stagflation, a scarcity of workers and an economy smaller than the US state of New York. It is also a simple mercantalist economy dependent on the price of oil, which is declining in value. Brent is trading at $73, and I think Ural oil is selling at $20 less. Not only are oil and gas bound to decline in value, but Russian production, dependent on western drilling technology and skilled workers, is going down. My advice -- get what you can for your rubles now.
[QUOTE=Tiny12;2963852]That's mostly a function of USA Dollar strength...[/QUOTE]Forgot to add, look at RUB vs CNY or JPY.
[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2963981]Forgot to add, look at RUB vs CNY or JPY.[/QUOTE]Well, especially given what's happened the last 12 hours, you've got a point. Further shutting Russia out from the world financial system is having an effect. If I were Russian, I wouldn't be jumping to exchange for USD right now, with Russian interest rates where they are, around 21% and inflation at 8.5%. This isn't like Turkey. Nabiullina is rational.
And yeah, I should have paid more attention to the actual values of the RUB/USD versus the U.S. dollar index instead of just the trend when I posted. I think what I wrote would have been reasonable up until a couple of weeks ago. The sanctions on Gazprombank are taking a toll.
The sanctions won't "work" by the way, any more than they did with Cuba or Iran. They just make Russia more determined to accomplish its goals, and piss off Russian citizens.
[QUOTE=Xpartan;2963869]Boy, don't I love it when Russian propacondoms are trying to catch me on a lie!
[URL]https://x.com/i/status/1852039145482523086[/URL][/QUOTE]The english subtitles are different than what he is actually saying. Fake news. Run along now, dumbass.
[QUOTE=Tiny12;2964007]...The sanctions won't "work" by the way, any more than they did with Cuba or Iran. They just make Russia more determined to accomplish its goals, and piss off Russian citizens.[/QUOTE]Re: the inevitable end of the Russian Federation. I previously quoted Hemingway ("The Sun Also Rises") in response to 'How did you go bankrupt? "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly". Historically, this is reminiscent of the fall of the Tsarist regime in 1917.
[QUOTE=BloodRed;2964032]The english subtitles are different than what he is actually saying. Fake news. Run along now, dumbass.[/QUOTE]Just curious. Do they pay you a bonus?
So, after sliding down to 113 yesterday, the ruble has "strengthened" at the 110 to 1 mark.
"Great success" as Barat would say.
Now, we really need to understand what this $$$ rally is really all about.
It means two things, actually no, make it three.
1. Putin has burned through half of his Sovereign Wealth Fund reserves in the last 2 years. On what? Mostly to cover the budget deficits, one after another.
2. There is no actual currency market in Russia. Ruble is propped by the Finance Ministry. Actually, strike that -- there is no market economy, period. Back to the USSR, baby!
3. The dollar rally has a two-fold nature. For one thing, with the dwindling hard currency reserves, rubble is getting harder and harder to prop. But the Russians are also using this "organic" process for a excuse to devalue further and collect more taxes by the year end. As such, it's also a scam to rob people blind.
4. How are Russian people getting robbed? Well, since Russia itself is manufacturing only three things: oil, gas and death, everything else must come from import. That's how.
I'm sorry, did I promise three things? Well, you know Russia. It's a fucking Matreshka.
And now, there are strong rumors that the Saudis will bring the oil prices under $50 per barrel. What does it mean for Putin's inferior product?
It means, there is no way in hell they're going to succeed in keeping this unfolding catastrophe under control. The previous orator was totally right: It has 1917 written all over it.
[QUOTE=Tiny12;2964007]Well, especially given what's happened the last 12 hours, you've got a point. Further shutting Russia out from the world financial system is having an effect. If I were Russian, I wouldn't be jumping to exchange for USD right now, with Russian interest rates where they are, around 21% and inflation at 8.5%. This isn't like Turkey. Nabiullina is rational.
And yeah, I should have paid more attention to the actual values of the RUB/USD versus the U.S. dollar index instead of just the trend when I posted. I think what I wrote would have been reasonable up until a couple of weeks ago. The sanctions on Gazprombank are taking a toll.
The sanctions won't "work" by the way, any more than they did with Cuba or Iran. They just make Russia more determined to accomplish its goals, and piss off Russian citizens.[/QUOTE]Inflation isn't at 8.5%, that's just what they are saying from the Kremlin.
If you look at actual prices, the real inflation is much higher.
As an example potatoes (which they grow domestically in abundance) are 64% dearer than at the start of the year.
This investment "advice" will not age well.
[QUOTE=Xpartan;2964088]Just curious. Do they pay you a bonus?[/QUOTE]I just pointed out to you your fake news and that the subtitles do not match what that guy is saying. Refrain from posting fake news and lies because I will continue to expose them and your dumbass.
[QUOTE=VinDici;2964130]Inflation isn't at 8.5%, that's just what they are saying from the Kremlin.
If you look at actual prices, the real inflation is much higher.
As an example potatoes (which they grow domestically in abundance) are 64% dearer than at the start of the year.
[b]This investment "advice" will not age well.[/b][/QUOTE]Maybe so and maybe not. Your thoughts about how Ukraine would progress in pushing back Russia have definitely not aged well.
Please take the Tiny Challenge again. Open the link below in two browser windows. Move the date on the interactive map in one of the browser windows back two years, to late November, 2022. Russia has made incremental gains since then. And hundreds of thousands on both sides have been killed and maimed. For nothing. Sounding like a broken record, the two sides need to start talking and negotiate a peace.
[URL]https://www.nzz.ch/english/ukraine-war-interactive-map-of-the-current-front-line-ld.1688087[/URL]