Medellin Reports

[QUOTE=AdventureSeekr;2431462]It is the first reported case but I would bet my entire life savings on the fact that it is definitely not the first actual case here. I am sure it has been here for at least two weeks. It is what it is, but I am happy to be leaving in 10 days as this is when the "confirmed reported cases" will start to grow exponentially.[/QUOTE]Well contrary to you looking forward to leaving in ten days, and I am assuming your going back to the USA, you may be regretting leaving, in that the Coronavirus may be ravaging the USA and not so much yet here.

So far there has been little effect yet in the Southern Hemisphere, and perhaps this thing is like the flu as we know it, and when the seasons have done an about face the Southern Hemisphere might be reeling with it in July and August. I hope not, I can only imagine how poorly India and Africa would fare. Maybe with Medellin being near the Equator it will be spared to some degree.

Nice report, it's enjoyable to read. I must say, 2 hours of facebook research seems like hard work to lazy me.

[QUOTE=AdventureSeekr;2431457]I've been insanely active in the mornings, scouring Facebook for more contacts, sending messages, adding friends. Getting phone numbers. The ratios are stupid. Search through 5000 people, find 200 I like, request to add all 200, send messages to 40, get 20 friend acceptances get 5 message responses. Fuck me. It's rough and it takes tons of time. I am also being super picky and only adding the ones I really am interested in and would see.

I'm really enjoying my morning routine. Hit Facebook for 2 hours, make breakfast, which is always some combo of eggs, bacon, fruit, OJ, get dressed around 11 am - 12 pm and think about what I feel like doing. I've been lazy af here and haven't done a lot of the tourist stuff like Comuna 13 or Guatape but I've been low energy and my stomach has been off so hopefully next week I'll knock some of that out.

I confirm with Aleja for tonight, we've been talking for a week at least and the timing keeps getting messed up. Then she lost her cedula and says she has the denuncia, but I tell her she needs another form of ID that has the cedula number, like a school ID. She says she has it.

Cool, great. I get bandeja paisa delivered for lunch, its okay, not great. Don't recommend it from Palo Santo Poblado. Wouldn't order again from them...[/QUOTE]

Is there any correlation between the 20% hospitalization rate you mentioned and the condition of those hospitalized, or is it just random. I read that coronavirus self resolves in 80% of the cases. Is that also misinformation?

[QUOTE=AdventureSeekr;2431698]Way to spread misinformation. Covid is 3 times as infectious as the flu. Flu has a mortality rate of. 1%, Covid is 3. 4% estimated - 34 times greater. Covid leaves 20% hospitalized. Flu stays on surfaces for 24 hours, Covid is up to 7 days. Flu is not infectious with no symptoms and has an incubation period of 2-5 days. Covid is contagious with no symptoms present and the incubation period is 5-27 days. Flu does not cause lethal pneumonia, Covid does. This has nothing to do with the media. There is legitimately an overwhelming amount of data from the scientific community about this. Do countries shut down entire cities for the flu? Do you think they want to do that and cripple their own economy if it weren't necessary? Covid is FAR more similar to the Spanish Flu of 1918 than seasonal influenza if you want to be making comparisons.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2431712]I think it's too early to be able to actually compare the Coronavirus to the flu statistically at this point because there has been a lot of under reporting of the actual cases and it is a new disease. So I suspect the mortality rate may actually be a bit lower.

What's disappointing is how ill prepared the USA has been for all of this. When China shutdown an entire City of like 13 million people, and built a Hospital in less than 10 days that should of been a wake up call for USA over a month ago to start getting it's shit together. The whole debacle on the test kits, etc. Is incredible to say the least.[/QUOTE]Agreed on all points. To your question about leaving in 10 days, it is because I feel more comfortable being in my own home, where I have over 100 days worth of supplies and wouldn't need to leave the house. I live in Puerto Rico, in a penthouse, with a private terrace. The temperature never changes and is always 82-85, a little less at night. I have everything I need there, entertainment, books, and private outdoor space that is no where near anyone else. If it comes down to it, I can easily stay there 90 days and not lose my mind, whereas being here in a 1 bedroom Airbnb with just a few sets of clothes would be tough.

Food for thought as to where someone might want to hunker down if they have a choice.

Italy is getting ready to lock-down a region of ten million people including Venice aka just like the Chinese did. Scary beyond belief, I am contemplating staying in Colombia for the time being, and not returning to the USA as I might get stuck there not being able to leave, either by lock-down or other Countries not excepting people from the USA. This is all so depressing what's going on.

[QUOTE=AdventureSeekr;2431721]Agreed on all points. To your question about leaving in 10 days, it is because I feel more comfortable being in my own home, where I have over 100 days worth of supplies and wouldn't need to leave the house. I live in Puerto Rico, in a penthouse, with a private terrace. The temperature never changes and is always 82-85, a little less at night. I have everything I need there, entertainment, books, and private outdoor space that is no where near anyone else. If it comes down to it, I can easily stay there 90 days and not lose my mind, whereas being here in a 1 bedroom Airbnb with just a few sets of clothes would be tough.[/QUOTE]You are very fortunate to be able to hunker down in such nice digs. Imagine staying in such nice digs in Medellin to ride out the storm!

[QUOTE=Knowledge;2431715]Nice report, it's enjoyable to read. I must say, 2 hours of facebook research seems like hard work to lazy me.[/QUOTE]

It definitely is, its not hard work but its tedious. BUT, now I have maybe 20 or so chicas I really like, we know each other and have talked a lot. We have already negotiated our deals, its smooth sailing. So its a huge upfront investment but then tapers off. I have only seen maybe 6 of them so far, with another two that didn't make the cut, and hoping to get through another 6-8 this trip. I won't be able to see them all unfortunately.

Of course now I have more like 100 numbers but the 20 I'm referring to are the cream of the crop.

In regards to covid, I did not understand your question about the 20% that are hospitalized. My point was that its a lot more severe than the standard flu by orders of magnitude and I think its a disservice to downplay it so heavily. The impact on the healthcare system is going to be tremendous and the lack of preparedness in the US is going to exacerbate the problem, as well as create significant economic dominoes to fall. It's already happening.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2431724]You are very fortunate to be able to hunker down in such nice digs. Imagine staying in such nice digs in Medellin to ride out the storm![/QUOTE]I'm grateful to be in such a situation. And yes, I am contemplating getting a similar setup here in Medellin for maybe 4 months out of the year. My only concern being here to ride this out is that I would be tempted to have chicas over often, and they are going to end up being pretty big vectors of spread in my opinion. They interact with a ton of people and are in a lot of homes, with foreigners from all over the world. Definitely not ideal. I feel like I am already pushing my luck and may chill out my last week and be a bit less active.

[QUOTE=AdventureSeekr;2431698]Way to spread misinformation. Covid is 3 times as infectious as the flu. Flu has a mortality rate of. 1%, Covid is 3. 4% estimated - 34 times greater. Covid leaves 20% hospitalized. Flu stays on surfaces for 24 hours, Covid is up to 7 days. Flu is not infectious with no symptoms and has an incubation period of 2-5 days. Covid is contagious with no symptoms present and the incubation period is 5-27 days. Flu does not cause lethal pneumonia, Covid does. This has nothing to do with the media. There is legitimately an overwhelming amount of data from the scientific community about this. Do countries shut down entire cities for the flu? Do you think they want to do that and cripple their own economy if it weren't necessary? Covid is FAR more similar to the Spanish Flu of 1918 than seasonal influenza if you want to be making comparisons.[/QUOTE]I don't know where you get your information; but according to the WHO Director General, you are spreading misinformation. This is some of what the Director General said on March 3 "First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far.

With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.

Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days. .

Globally, about 3. 4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected. " "Far fewer than 1%" doesn't translate to 0. 1%.

I have checked information from CDC and can not find any stats that correlate to what you posted.

About the disappear this two girls Damina and Jennifer I know now. I like damina very much I was many times with and she is not a expensive girl you can have a romantic girlfriend experience with very nice. The other Jenifer I try before she is too ***** for me in sex not my tipe I am a romantic one but people who like porn experience she is very good a litle expensive but good job. They disappear from last September one day take everything and left without say nothing. I had before Damina number but I think she change now I can't contact anymore to see where she is. But the only thing I know from her is that she must leave because of some problems with H angels. I don't know exactly where is she now but I hope come again. This two virls was very good friends but I hear about Jenifer every boy have Damina something she try to keep. I don't know exactly about this only Asia say to me some things because she is friend with Damina. I hope come again.

[QUOTE=FunLuvr;2431742]I don't know where you get your information; but according to the WHO Director General, you are spreading misinformation. This is some of what the Director General said on March 3 "First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far.

With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.

Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days. .

Globally, about 3. 4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected. " "Far less than 1%" doesn't translate to 0. 1%.

I have checked information from CDC and can not find any stats that correlate to what you posted.[/QUOTE]

I've just put in 15 minutes finding this for you, I won't be investing more. Each person can draw their own conclusions.

Flu: Top end Stats are 49m infections, 52000 deaths = . 1%.

[URL]https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm[/URL]

"During the 2018-19 flu season, about 35 million people in the US contracted the flu and about 34,000 died, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This flu season, an estimated 32 million people have gotten the flu, with 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 deaths. " That would be around. 05%.

[URL]https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-flu-mortality-rates-2020-3[/URL]

"Since first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. Using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3. 11 (95%CI, 2. 39-4. 13)".

[URL]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v2[/URL]

Asymptomatic Transmission

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762028?guestAccessKey=9e4e116a-7ab4-4a98-97b7-9b0bbedb5c6f&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=022120

"Doctors concluded that the woman's incubation period – the time during which she was infectious – was 19 days."

https://www.sciencealert.com/researchers-confirmed-patients-can-transmit-the-coronavirus-without-showing-symptoms

"Chinese health officials previously estimated that the incubation period for the virus ranged from one to 14 days, but recent research suggests it could be as long as 24 days."

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v1

I've just put in 15 minutes finding this for you, I won't be investing more. Each person can draw their own conclusions.

Flu: Top end Stats are 49 m infections, 52000 deaths = . 1%.

"During the 2018-19 flu season, about 35 million people in the US contracted the flu and about 34,000 died, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This flu season, an estimated 32 million people have gotten the flu, with 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 deaths. " That would be around. 05%.

"Since first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. Using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3. 11 (95%CI, 2. 39-4. 13)".

The stats I want to see are.

OK 1st lets assume most mongers are between 40-60 yrs old and in general good health? I fit that demo, I will even say excellent health.

Now show me what % die each year in that demographic from the flu each year and what % are dying in that demo from the Chinese Wuhan virus.

Thanks, yes I found it and submitted it. Good point.

To anyone: When you join this forum, via the yearly fee, do you bypass the post moderation?

[blue]No. Only being Senior Member unmoderated.

Admin3[/blue]

Yes, the current statistics can only be based on known cases. Most agree all cases are not known. Among known cases 8 out of 10 self resolve. Of the known cases that don't resolve or end in pneumonia or death, a very high percentage involve the elderly and / or people with pre-existing conditions. For as yet unknown reasons, children don't appear to be vulnerable.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2431712]I think it's too early to be able to actually compare the Coronavirus to the flu statistically at this point because there has been a lot of under reporting of the actual cases and it is a new disease. So I suspect the mortality rate may actually be a bit lower.

What's disappointing is how ill prepared the USA has been for all of this. When China shutdown an entire City of like 13 million people, and built a Hospital in less than 10 days that should of been a wake up call for USA over a month ago to start getting it's shit together. The whole debacle on the test kits, etc. Is incredible to say the least.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=AdventureSeekr;2431457]I've been insanely active in the mornings, scouring Facebook for more contacts, sending messages, adding friends. Getting phone numbers. The ratios are stupid. Search through 5000 people, find 200 I like, request to add all 200, send messages to 40, get 20 friend acceptances get 5 message responses. Fuck me. It's rough and it takes tons of time. I am also being super picky and only adding the ones I really am interested in and would see.



Cool, great. I get bandeja paisa delivered for lunch, its okay, not great. Don't recommend it from Palo Santo Poblado. Wouldn't order again from them.

.[/QUOTE]As for being picky and only adding ones you are really interested in, my strategy is a little different. I look at it as playing the long game, if an ugly prepago has over a thousand friends then to me that is a thousand potentially that may have some hotties in the list that I want to connect with, and if I have a mutual friend it can makes things easier.

I can only eat bandeja paisa when I am really hungry, its strange but for me if I am just normally hungry it tastes bland, but if I am really hungry than it is delicious and it really hits the spot.