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$50 a barrel oil, are you kidding??? Even the revised Goldman Sachs estimates accounting for a global slowdown, shows that oil will be hovering in the $100 to $135 range over the next four years. A nuclear Iran will definitely be a factor in higher oil prices, as will growth from Asia.
[QUOTE=CBGBConnisur]$50 a barrel oil, are you kidding??? Even the revised Goldman Sachs estimates accounting for a global slowdown, shows that oil will be hovering in the $100 to $135 range over the next four years. A nuclear Iran will definitely be a factor in higher oil prices, as will growth from Asia.[/QUOTE]$70/80 realistic middle-term.
Russia has been reinvigorated by its association with China, its not just about petro prices. Despite all this talk about a deep recession in the West, even with downgraded economic forecasts China will still grow at around 9 percent a year for the next decade. If they decide to float the RMB, which they probably will after 2010, then watch out because it will shoot up like a rocket to the moon against the Dollar and Euro. The Chinese were trying to slow down their superhot economy anyway.
An Obama Presidency will not be the end of Mideast conflict, in fact, countries such as Iran will become more assertive. Earlier this year there was talk of an Israeli attack on Iran after the US Presidential election if Obama wins. Its 95 percent likely Obama will be the next US President. Israelis will use the remainder of the Bush administration as a window of time to act against Tehran. Enjoy the cheaper oil and gas prices, they are not going to last.
[QUOTE=CBGBConnisur]Russia has been reinvigorated by its association with China, its not just about petro prices. Despite all this talk about a deep recession in the West, even with downgraded economic forecasts China will still grow at around 9 percent a year for the next decade. If they decide to float the RMB, which they probably will after 2010, then watch out because it will shoot up like a rocket to the moon against the Dollar and Euro. The Chinese were trying to slow down their superhot economy anyway.
An Obama Presidency will not be the end of Mideast conflict, in fact, countries such as Iran will become more assertive. Earlier this year there was talk of an Israeli attack on Iran after the US Presidential election if Obama wins. Its 95 percent likely Obama will be the next US President. Israelis will use the remainder of the Bush administration as a window of time to act against Tehran. Enjoy the cheaper oil and gas prices, they are not going to last.[/QUOTE]I know we disagree on this, but personally I don't believe in "the Asian Century". I see much more parity in the world, and China will be a player but not the leader.
Also agree that Obama is the next president. I personally like a lot of what McCain stands for as a person, he's more liberal than you might think, but within the confines of his political party and hampered by both his aged view of the world and his woefully incompetent VP, I think Obama MUST win.
The Chindians are already forcing many of us to reethink our own personal energy policies. People are already thinking of more fuel efficient cars instead of tanks on rubber wheels known as SUVs. There will always be a few getting super rich in America, but I think the middle class over there is supremely screwed. I don't think Obama is going to change the way America works, making America a more fair society, that is wishful thinking. Its the mass media that controls the population more than anyone else, and the media is controlled by wealthy elites. Obama hangs out with celebs and limo liberals who are wealthy people with liberal views. To me both the Democrats and Republicans are for the rich but differ in social and international policies.
The EU ministers were in talks this weekend and the biggest bomb they dropped was the repudiation of Bretton Woods, that was the agreement that declared the US dollar as the world reserve currency. Sarkozy mentioned that the global financial system will have to "rearranged". That does not sound good if you ask me. The EU system will never succeed in America, just no way it will happen without a massive social change in the US. Americans still equate smaller European autos for example as a sign of economic inferiority. I always hear about US troops in Germany complain about the size of houses over there.
I actually like McCain but my opinion of him has nosedived since he chose Sarah Palin. I would have thought different if he chose Mitt Romney.
There is still plenty of time for the situation to reverse for Obama, alas. He's only narrowly ahead in lots of states that he needs to win, such as Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and even Pennsylvania. He does seem to have Wisconsin and Iowa locked up. I don't however take seriously the polls that suggest he has a chance in Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, or Florida. We should all remember that american racism will probably remove about 3% to 5% from his standing in the polls when it comes to actual voting.
As for doubting his propensity for redistribution - certainly it is reasonable to understand that no one will ever be allowed near power in the US who would threaten the 'private' property of the owning class. But the fact remains that the only way out of a depression is the application of Keyensian economics. The kneejerk reaction of the rich was against FDR as well, but his policies benefited them far more than the working class.
[QUOTE=CBGBConnisur]There will always be a few getting super rich in America, but I think the middle class over there is supremely screwed. I don't think Obama is going to change the way America works, making America a more fair society, that is wishful thinking. Its the mass media that controls the population more than anyone else, and the media is controlled by wealthy elites. [/QUOTE]And this disparity that you feel is America's doom is even more predominant in China, India and Russia. Their economies are in growth mode, there are very few mistakes to be made in a booming economy... everything works despite gross incompetence and corruption on the part of officials, politicians and business people.
They'll have to prove their mettle... and the resiliency of their economies... when growth flattens out and the economy actually has to function.
Get some popcorn.
The one thing no Americans on here want to admit is just how WASTEFUL America is. THAT is what is going to be its biggest undoing. Americans have many ingrained wasteful habits. Some are not so easily fixable in a 4 year presidential term. The biggest problem is that America has allowed several cities to be built practically from the ground up on a model of inefficiency and wasteful use of space. The next biggest problem is that America actually DISMANTLED the world's second-best rail system half a century ago and now we have very poor infrastructure in the area of transportation. None of these are easily solvable and they are going to cost America dearly in the long run.
I say next thing that happens is OPEC drops the dollar, and another big major terrorist attack will happen on US soil, and you can kiss the dollar goodbye all over again.
Once oil boy W is out of office there will be a huge surge in ‘alternative’ energy. History has shown that OPEC will combat emerging tech and alternatives by dropping oil down to nothing in order to crush it. $50/barrel? We’ll probably see $20 again. Fossil fuels have a shelf life of another 20 years as the primary lube that drives the economic machine.
Once again I don’t know where you’ve been, but the Israelis have been going solo for the last 8 years. W was no friend to them. Then again one of the biggest mistake in US foreign policy for the last 60 years has been allowing Israel to drive US foreign policy in the Middle East.
The Russian stock market has lost 65% of its value since May. Banks aren’t allowing depositors free access to their money. Where exactly do you get your news from, do you just make this stuff up or get all you news from Op-Ed pieces.
90% of China like the FSU is a crap hole. If the world economy tanks who do you think the Chinese are going to sell their products to? Their large and strong middle class? Don’t think so – bye Chinese economy. How do you think the emerging middle class in China is affording all their shiny new toys? On credit of course, oops. Let’s see what the situation in China is like in 6-8 months.
You guys seem to let ideology drive your arguments in this section, you seem to get opinions confused with facts and history. CBGB, you are so far off in the fringe it’s no wonder that you take Ron Paul as gospel, what are you a Euro anyway?
The whole world has benefited from W being in office at the expense of the US. He’s gone in January, get ready for a surging dollar, plunging oil, and the implosion of second world economies. If you don’t count the EU as a ‘country’ the US is the only country in the world that has a self sustaining economy, not only that, but as recent events have shown the US economy drives the worlds economy. Could China take over? No way, could a super EU country? Maybe, but how far off is that? 50 years? As the Doctor said, parity? Maybe but by looking at the players and the map I just don’t see it.
The only reason why the world economy hasn’t plunged into another Great Depression is because the US government is doing all it can to stave it off. Just as we saved the world’s collective ass three times in the 20th Century – my apologies to Eastern Europe and Africa. The rest of you can just send us Thank You notes.
[QUOTE=CBGBConnisur]Oil going to $50 a barrel, maybe but not for long. Even with an Obama administration putting the chances of a military confrontation with Iran as very remote, I bet Israel will step up and there will be a rumble between the two, that will guarantee oil will climb up. Israelis are already preparing for an Obama administration and they will go alone against Iran without the US for the first time in history.
China and Russia are the two of the fastest BRICs countries, the RMB is starting to appreciate against the Dollar, and their economy will still grow 10 percent per annum. This means by 2020, China will have a bigger economy than the US. As far as oppression is concerned, you did not read about the US military will be called in to stop any kind of domestic insurrection if an economic collapse hits the US. America is looking more like a Running Man movie, no I am not living in an alternative reality. Obama will not repeal the Patriot Act, and in reality will use it to finalize Bush's plans to turn the US into full police State.
Obama is going to be left with an economy in ruins and he will become a scapegoat. There are many regions of the US where he is not popular, probably any red state. You should have heard the angry comments made by Republican supporters at McCain rallies.
The Bush administration was able to lower taxes and fight a war because of foreign buyers of US Treasuries, mostly the Saudis and the Chinese.
The long run trend is an increase in the price of oil. I bet by 2018, oil will be at minimum around $300 a barrel. The world reached peak production in the 1970s and now the Asians are set to place increasing stress on the world's resources, there is no way oil will get cheaper, give a break, the stuff is running out and it will be years before the West will break its oil dependence...if ever.
If Americans did not need credit to live large or merely just live, why is Wall Street panicking???
Oh yeah, I have been visiting China regularly over the past several years, I can tell you that while there is a lot of third world poverty, the country is progressing like no other nation in history.
The US is turning into a police state:
[url]http://www.prisonplanet.tv/articles/march2005/170305runningman.htm[/url]
I also got news for you, even though Jorg Haider had an accident you should have heard what Austrians said about this man, they called him a "a good man", Haider was a Nazi sympathizer and most Austrians were upset about his passing. This was the same guy who called former SS Wafen "heroes". NPD is gaining traction in East Germany, Far right groups are gaining power all over Europe. So watch for the EU to turn into facist police state, especially with Islamic terror in Europe, nuclear Iran, and a reinvigorated Russia.
Ron Paul tells it like it is, he ain't living in an "alternate" reality:
[url]http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2002/cr062702.htm[/url][/QUOTE]
People all over the world are hurting right now because the US is hurting and the US is the center of world finance. The rest of the world will NOT make that mistake again. They will figure out how to do business without Uncle Sam in the middle, and QUICKLY.
Alternative energy HAH! Dream on! You obviously haven't travelled very much because if you did you'd know how far the US is BEHIND on energy.
China will become internally self-sufficient in the next 5 years. They are much further along than you even imagine. And when they do they will change ALL the rules of the game. Brazil is ALREADY self-sufficient. They have spent the last 15 years working on it, and despite the bad press they have done a great job. The Bovespa is way down but it never counted for much anyways. Unlike in America, the stock market going down won't crash the whole economy over there.
You people in the "Obama will fix everything" camp are just living in a dream world, and you have NO idea how fucked up things have actually gotten.
How do the Chinese plan on becoming self sufficient with 85% of their population living in destitution, or is that the plan?
Brazil? Is Brazil a 2nd or 3rd world country? I think Brazil has always been self sufficient, much in the same way Chad or Somalia has always been self sufficient.
I'm not in the Obama 'camp' and I obviously have a better understand of things that you could hope.
America is not as unequal as China or India...yet. Its still a fair society compared to most developing nations. China is a police state and India is a wannabe democracy that is really a police state. China's middle class accounts for 20 percent of the population, nearly 300 million people, and its only going to get bigger. Lets see what America will look like another 10 to 15 years, the days of easy credit in America are gone, and this is going to squeeze the middle class like never before in American history. I am already aware of the wide disparity in Asia, but the US has always been considered to be more egalitarian, and that will not be the case in the near future.
So if you're not supporting Obama, then you are for Sarah Palin?? She is for alternative energy. LOL. More like offshore drilling. You do know that there is a 1 in 4 chance she will take over for McCain if he wins, which considering the wide lead that Obama has, is just not going to happen. I hope you realize that
McCain will just be another Bush, he has agreed 90 percent of the time with Bush, and Palin is so obvious, she is controlled by the oil companies.
Alan Greenspan recently hinted that the Euro could become the currency of choice in the not too distant future. Frankly I place Mr. Greenspan's credibility way above any anonymous poster, I would definitely listen to him. Jim Roberts and George Soros have not been too bullish about the US Dollar, neither has Warren Buffet. If people like that are losing faith in the Greenback it speaks volumes. The Euro is quickly becoming an alternative currency for international business, Bango Cheito is right, the world is not going to repeat the mistake of relying on the US financial system. Stephen Roach who actually worked for my former employer, is also a big Dollar bear, and he is also hinting that the US Dollar is going to implode. The EU is definitely not a country but it is an example of supranational cooperation, and once they kick out the British, there will be no opposition to giving Brussels full federal powers.
I am anticipating a major military conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, the possibility of a war between the two is becoming close to 90 percent. Israel will probably launch an attack on Iran after the election in November and before Obama becomes inaugurated. This is going to be historic because it will be the first time in many years that Israel will launch a major military operation without the blessing of the US government.
No I am not a Euro, I am an American residing overseas.
[QUOTE=Cruiser D]
Once again I don’t know where you’ve been, but the Israelis have been going solo for the last 8 years. W was no friend to them. Then again one of the biggest mistake in US foreign policy for the last 60 years has been allowing Israel to drive US foreign policy in the Middle East.
[/QUOTE]
I guess you are not a Democrat or a Republican, both parties kowtow to Israel. The Israeli lobby is extremely powerful within the USA. The Libertarians are also Pro Mikvah, after all Gene Simmons is a member and one of the biggest Zionists in Rock and Roll. Washington was with Israel up until two years ago after Israel failed to destroy Hezbollah in Lebanon. The US just sent Israel a brand new ballistic missile radar system to compliment their Arrow missile defense. If Israel was really ignored by America, why do both Obama and McCain highlight their dedication to the Middle Eastern nation??
America has been blessed like no other nation in history but things are beginning to change. In the not too distant the future the US will just be another nation.
[QUOTE=CBGBConnisur]I am anticipating a major military conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, the possibility of a war between the two is becoming close to 90 percent. Israel will probably launch an attack on Iran after the election in November and before Obama becomes inaugurated. This is going to be historic because it will be the first time in many years that Israel will launch a major military operation without the blessing of the US government.[/QUOTE]
I am concerned about that. Israel will probably attack Iran. We, the US, have been turning a blind eye to their attacks on the Palestinians. So the Israelis that all their enemies are as weak as the Palestinians, even though Hezbollah put on a good showing in 2006.
My point is the Iran is NOT Gaza or the West Bank. The Iranians are NOT weak. An agressor who does not overwhelm his victim and leaves the raid a draw, really loses. There is no way Israel can overwhelm Iran without nukes, so Israel is going to be the loser.
Furthermore, Iran wants to solidy its influence over Iraq. Check this out! Iraq and Iran fight a war. Bush calls Iran part of an Axis of Evil. Then Bush takes down the enemy of Iran. HUH???!??!?!?!? A confrontation with Israel will be a perfect excuse to invade part of Iraq under the guise of trying to protect Iraq's airspace from Israeli intrusions. Iran will end up having influence from Afghanistan to the Mediterranean through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Is that supposed to be the way to contain an enemy???!!!???
So we have let the tail wag the dog for so long that we don't know one end from the other. Israel will atack Iran and the Mid-East situation will become worse for us and better for Iran.
CB kinda already said it but...
you're right. The world is a very unequal place. And America through its extreme mismanagement has lost its edge and is about to join the party. It's going to be a real ***** walking 5 miles to the store to get bread because everything was built for when everybody could have their own car.
I don't relish the idea of China becoming a superpower and exercising hegemony the way the US has done in the past, it would be WAY worse. But it's a very strong possibility we had all better prepare for.
[QUOTE=Cruiser D]How do the Chinese plan on becoming self sufficient with 85% of their population living in destitution, or is that the plan?
Brazil? Is Brazil a 2nd or 3rd world country? I think Brazil has always been self sufficient, much in the same way Chad or Somalia has always been self sufficient.
I'm not in the Obama 'camp' and I obviously have a better understand of things that you could hope.[/QUOTE]