Rants and WTF are you talking about and Coronavirus!

[QUOTE=BigBuddy69;2542757]An increase in the incidence rate doesn't always mean that the virus is spreading faster.[/QUOTE]Agreed with incidence rate. But if we look at positive rate, we can conclude that the virus is spreading faster than early fall. Even if policy was based on 100 K tests instead of 100 K residents, the numbers show that Germany has still not improved since lockdown light began on November 1. This was also the date that the NRW clubs closed.

Back in September 2020, the CDC estimated that 80 percent of CV19 cases were symptomatic, 20 percent were asymptomatic. Has that ratio changed for the new variants?

Most people who volunteer for a test, probably are symptomatic or have a close contact that is symptomatic. The fact that more people are voluntarily wasting 1-2 hours to take a test suggests that there are more symptomatic people now than September 2020. And if that's true, there are probably more asymptomatic people now than there were in September 2020.

[QUOTE=McAdonis;2542577]If CV19 is truly going away, increasing tests should result in a lower daily positive rate. Germany is back at where it was in late-October: [URL]https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&country=DEU~GBR[/URL].[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=HammerTime96;2542768] [quote]Quote Originally Posted by McAdonis
If CV19 is truly going away, increasing tests should result in a lower daily positive rate. Germany is back at where it was in late-October: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/p...ountry=DEU~GBR.[/quote]
No.

Imagine you have a fictional city of exactly 100 k inhabitants. Also imagine that you do 100% testing of al citizens, an extreme and unrealistic scenario, but this exaggeration is just to illustrate my point. Also assume that the PC test generates 1% false positive results. You automatically get an "Inzidenzwert" of 1000 per 100000 inhabitants![/QUOTE]No.

You are creating a scenario based on positive per 100 K inhabitants. He is quoting the share of tests that are positive. That number is increasing when it wouldn't be if covid was going away.

[QUOTE=HammerTime96;2542927]If super hard lockdowns worked, it would not have spread beyond Wuhan in 2020, and even the WHO has recognized that lockdowns can only temporarily reduce the strain on the hospital system, but are completely useless in containing and eradicating a virus.[/QUOTE]Wuhan lockdown started 23rd of January, 2020.

Prior to their lock down, here are some cases already seen outside of China:

Thailand, 12th of January, 2020.

[URL]https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/13/woman-with-novel-pneumonia-virus-hospitalized-in-thailand-the-first-case-outside-china/[/URL]

Japan, 16th of January, 2020.

[URL]https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/japan-has-1st-novel-coronavirus-case-china-reports-another-death[/URL]

USA 21st of January, 2020.

[URL]https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0121-novel-coronavirus-travel-case.html[/URL]

Of course the Wuhan lockdown on the 23rd of January didn't stop the spread of something that was already out.

[QUOTE=Mursenary;2542949]They didn't do themselves any favors with the AZ fears. From AZ age restrictions to halting AZ rollout for a blood clot incidence that was less than the rate of naturally occurring blood clots in the general population was a baffling move. The issues in the EU cannot all be blamed solely on supply.[/QUOTE]I retract this statement. Further investigations revealed to me that the nature of the blood clots were more specific and more investigation is justified.

[QUOTE=Mursenary;2542949]They didn't do themselves any favors with the AZ fears. From AZ age restrictions to halting AZ rollout for a blood clot incidence that was less than the rate of naturally occurring blood clots in the general population was a baffling move. The issues in the EU cannot all be blamed solely on supply.[/QUOTE]AZ is still restricted in EU, not for women under 40, limited for between 55 and 75 and medical don t run to be vaccined, when I think was not tested for older than 65. EU claim to have now 55 factories to produce 300 millions doses for July, no sputnik at the moment, only Hungary chose out of EU, and Germany should lengthen and stricter lockdown until April when they started after Christmas. What is the reason? UK mutant as I often wrote, which is killing Western continental Europe and even Germany when they forbid UK since a while, about 1 month ago. I think better to find other destination than Germany for 2021, when also elections to come and when beloved Angela started to fall on recent elections in Saarland and Rhein Palatine I think, when Germany suffer under second and now third wave. We may have to wait for heat return on 2022, maybe June? When 2021 is worst than 2020 because of UK mutant spreading faster and killing more. Really bad after Brexit killer gift.

What happen now in US? After usual versus black racism, after killing Indians, now Asians turn for racism? And not only in Atlanta, when Asians are not responsible for Chinese government liars, when most of Chinese are scared about their government. Of course, can also disagree about Japan cultural sexism where women have low value and can even read here, but I don t think average racist US are thinking about this. Very good point in US is vaccine for free, maybe millions of illegals and also all those so many millions without insurance can get, when a bit unfair disease, killing more poor than rich, even Africa manage quite well and I m very happy for them.

[QUOTE=Mursenary;2542991]Comparing vaccination curves directly with cases would be bad statistics as it is not a direct linear relationship.

Regardless, your claim is blatantly untrue as seen by the following graphs.

UK started vaccinating first week of December and Israel December 20th. Cases peaked on January 10th and 17th respectively. UK vaccination was well underway when cases peaked and continued to decline at the same rate as vaccinations increased. The inverse is also true. As UK vaccination rates plateaued, so did their decline in cases. Now approaching 50% vaccinations and the less at-risk are being vaccinated, there are diminishing returns in case reduction. Your statement is even more untrue in Israel as every time vaccination rates dropped, there was a subsequent decline in case reduction.

[URL] https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=329..424&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Align+outbreaks=false&country=GBR~ISR[/URL]

But perhaps more importantly, the effects of vaccines on the death curve is unmistakable. Deaths peaked on January 23rd and 25th respectively. Well over a month after vaccines rolled out and well past when vaccination rates became robust.

[URL] https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=329..424&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Align+outbreaks=false&country=GBR~ISR
[/URL]

For now, the effects of the vaccination campaigns in both countries support their efficacy. That may change but until then, [B]Please stop rooting for the virus to succeed.[/B].[/QUOTE]Sorry I do what I want, and advise you to visit your ophthalmologist. I checked again in 2020 for Israel and UK both decrease were far faster and stronger before the vaccination campaign. Always the same story when the reality doesn't fit what you think the reality doesn't exist.

[QUOTE=McAdonis;2543002]Agreed with incidence rate. But if we look at positive rate, we can conclude that the virus is spreading faster than early fall. Even if policy was based on 100 K tests instead of 100 K residents, the numbers show that Germany has still not improved since lockdown light began on November 1.[/QUOTE]Lockdown "light?" Dude, the November lockdowns were even more restrictive as the original lockdown in March 2020; restaurants, bars, gyms, and everything else shut. Even the Baumarkt was closed this time around, which wasn't the case during the March 2020 lockdown. Stick to the facts!

So let's assume a 1% false positive number on 100 k tests. That's 1000 'cases' right then and there. Do 1 million tests and you get 10 k 'cases' from the false positives alone. Testing and 'cases' only make sense if you look at the percentage of positive cases of the total number of tests. The percentage goes up: virus is spreading. Percentage goes down: virus is retreating.

Here's a sarcastic example for the mathematically challenged:

So let's only do 20 tests per week? Even if they are all 'positive' then we can lift the lockdown because it's under the Incident Rate of 35, right? / sarc This example illustrates how the Incident Rate is manipulated with an increase or decrease in the number of tests.

[QUOTE=McAdonis;2543002]Most people who volunteer for a test, probably are symptomatic or have a close contact that is symptomatic. The fact that more people are voluntarily wasting 1-2 hours to take a test suggests that there are more symptomatic people now than September 2020.[/QUOTE]Lot's of "probably" and "suggests" from yet another American armchair expert.

First of all: people do 'not show up for a voluntary test,' but tests are now required for children and teachers to attend school already in most Federal States, and will be required for people to visit a restaurant or gym, IF they ever open up.

[URL]https://www.bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/coronatest/faq-schnelltests.html[/URL]#c20760.

[QUOTE]Werden Selbsttests Pflicht vor dem Schul- oder Kita-Besuch?

Es ist Aufgabe der Länder, ihre Schulen und Kitas mit Schnelltest zu versorgen. Es können auch Selbsttests als Teil der Teststrategie der Länder für Kitas und Schulen zum Einsatz kommen.[/QUOTE]My translation: 'It's the task of states to supply schools and daycare centers with fast tests. (er, that wasn't the question, who cares who supplies those tests! The question was about tests being mandatory!) Fast tests at schools or daycare centers can be part of a test strategy of federal states. ' Err, again, that wasn't the question, who cares about testing strategy, the question was about tests being mandatory!

Notice (if you speak any German at all) how deliberately vague the answer is to the question whether 'quick tests are mandatory for visiting schools or daycare.'

Fact is, as ALL of my German colleagues who have kids have confirmed: testing healthy asymptomatic kids is mandatory before attending school or dumping your kids at a daycare center.

Refusal to take the tests results in suspension of either the student or the teacher: [URL]https://www.saechsische.de/zittau/lehrer-vom-dienst-suspendiert-eltern-verweigern-corona-test-selbsttest-pflicht-5402204-plus.html[/URL].

So NO McAdonis, stop gaslighting with your "probably" and "suggest" and stick to facts! It might help if you actually learn a little bit of the language of the country where you live in, or doesn't the USAFE have any 'free' (tax slave funded) language classes? LOL!

P.S. I already posted this but look at the example of Kleinmachnow I posted below, this is a FACT and that is that only healthy and asymptomatic people are tested.

[URL]https://coronatest-tks.de[/URL]

Notice how it says: "Getestet werden nur gesunde, symptomfreie Personen" on the sign? Can you read the German sentence? Do you know what "nur" means?

Translation, emphasis mine: Tested are only healthy, asymptomatic people!

[QUOTE=HammerTime96;2542931]By the way, let's see if Germany's health minister 'Jasmina' Spahn will survive the scandal surrounding his 'husband' and a corrupt deal with face masks:

[URL]https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/deutschland/id_89700698/corona-spahns-ministerium-kaufte-masken-bei-arbeitgeber-seines-mannes.html[/URL]

Caption underneath the photo:

My translation: 'Health minister Jens Spahn and his husband Daniel Funke: evidently the company for which Funke is working as a lobbyist, sold Spahn's ministry masks.'

Let's see if Captain Merkel of the Pirate-Ship "DDR 2.0" ties all the shit that has gone wrong during the last year (hint: almost everything) to Spahn, and then throws him overboard. LOL![/QUOTE]You can find corrupt politicians across all parties. No wonder that the lobby registration law in Germany didn't go anywhere for so long and it's pretty toothless.

[QUOTE=Mursenary;2543029]I retract this statement. Further investigations revealed to me that the nature of the blood clots were more specific and more investigation is justified.[/QUOTE]There have also been issues with the Pfizer jab related to blood clots but the Pfizer one was not withdrawn / restricted etc. Hmmm. I wonder why. Maybe it is because it is mainly or solely made for profit on mainland Europe? The AZ vaccine is sold at cost in UK. The EU should be ashamed of themselves for playing politics with peoples lives, they disgust me.

[QUOTE=Abox79;2543207]There have also been issues with the Pfizer jab related to blood clots but the Pfizer one was not withdrawn / restricted etc. Hmmm. I wonder why. Maybe it is because it is mainly or solely made for profit on mainland Europe? The AZ vaccine is sold at cost in UK. The EU should be ashamed of themselves for playing politics with peoples lives, they disgust me.[/QUOTE]The EU has never suspended any Covid vaccine. Some member states suspended AZ vaccine for further investigations, which have now been resolved.

[QUOTE=Abox79;2543207]There have also been issues with the Pfizer jab related to blood clots but the Pfizer one was not withdrawn / restricted etc. Hmmm. I wonder why. Maybe it is because it is mainly or solely made for profit on mainland Europe? The AZ vaccine is sold at cost in UK. The EU should be ashamed of themselves for playing politics with peoples lives, they disgust me.[/QUOTE]Why playing with people lives? Better not to overreact, nobody knows what could be the side effects in 3 or 5 years from all those vaccines, never there was so a hurry to bring a vaccine on the market. Second nobody knows today how effective they really are in 6 months, 12 months and against the new variants which will probably pop up. What is sure it that the vaccine strategies are quite different for example in China you can t get the vaccine if you are over 59, in Europe we start to vaccinate the old people, if I look how China manage the pandemy I am more willing to believe the Chinese strategy.

[QUOTE=HammerTime96;2543151]Translation, emphasis mine: Tested are only healthy, asymptomatic people![/QUOTE]I agree with your original statement that if you increase testing, you will find more total people with CV19, however if the virus is subsiding, than in addition to finding more total cases, we should also be seeing the percentage of cases that are coming back positive decreasing. They were testing many people throughout the whole of Europe the entire summer, (many of them asymptomatic coming back from holiday flights), and positive ratings were 1 percent.

[QUOTE=HammerTime96;2543151]So let's assume a 1% false positive number on 100 k tests. That's 1000 'cases' right then and there. Do 1 million tests and you get 10 k 'cases' from the false positives alone. [/QUOTE]Legitimate question what is the number of false negatives? Too lazy to look that up. Would they cancel each other out?

[QUOTE=HammerTime96;2543151]Testing and 'cases' only make sense if you look at the percentage of positive cases of the total number of tests. The percentage goes up: virus is spreading. Percentage goes down: virus is retreating.[/QUOTE]Agree that percentage of positive cases / total number of tests makes more sense. All I am pointing out is that if we could use this metric, it has increased over the last week in Germany, where as UK has seen precipitous drop in its positive rate since first week of January: [URL]https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&country=DEU~GBR[/URL].

[QUOTE=HammerTime96;2543151]So let's only do 20 tests per week? Even if they are all 'positive' then we can lift the lockdown because it's under the Incident Rate of 35, right? / sarc This example illustrates how the Incident Rate is manipulated with an increase or decrease in the number of tests.
[/QUOTE]Sounds like a good policy to me, if you want to draft that up for me, I will sign off. Problem is I am just some random loser on the Internet. I have no power to open anything up. You act like people on ISG are social media influencers with a million followers, or that we are incognito politicians or business leaders. If we were, we probably wouldn't have that much free time to be post.

[QUOTE=Abox79;2543207]There have also been issues with the Pfizer jab related to blood clots but the Pfizer one was not withdrawn / restricted etc. Hmmm. I wonder why. Maybe it is because it is mainly or solely made for profit on mainland Europe? The AZ vaccine is sold at cost in UK. The EU should be ashamed of themselves for playing politics with peoples lives, they disgust me.[/QUOTE]You mean as in not restricting exports to the UK? I agree this should have been done in order to speed up vaccination. The Brits have their own plants to produce the vaccine from.

[QUOTE=Abox79;2543207]There have also been issues with the Pfizer jab related to blood clots but the Pfizer one was not withdrawn / restricted etc. Hmmm. I wonder why. Maybe it is because it is mainly or solely made for profit on mainland Europe? The AZ vaccine is sold at cost in UK. The EU should be ashamed of themselves for playing politics with peoples lives, they disgust me.[/QUOTE]The difference is that some Pfizer recipients saw more benign types of venous blood clots and at a lower incidence than the background incidence observed in the general population. Perhaps more importantly, the AZ vaccine is being implicated in a much more potentially harmful type of clot: CSVT, a specific cerebral thrombus. The low incidence and small sample size is too low to make a precise comparison to the background incidence but the potential severity of this complication warrants investigation and rule out of a causative effect.