American Politics

Bango was meaning that the Chinese do not necessarily depend upon American consumers as what is generally accepted. Consumers are every on the planet. Asia will have a bigger consumer base than the West in a couple of decades. The EU is another alternative market for the Chinese, although a more hostile one than the US. BRICs have the best growth prospects for the at least the first half of this century.

90 percent of China a dump LOL, realistically its 80 percent but will drop to 50 percent in 10 years, 90 percent dump might describe India with its woefully horrific infrastructure but the Chinese are building a city the size of San Francisco every two weeks. The infrastructure in some of their big coastal cities like Shenzhen are unbelievable. You would honestly not think they would have such modern structures in a developing country. Shenzhen was largely a little town 20 years ago and is now larger than Los Angeles. Macau is another fine place, its an XXX rated version of Vegas.

Lee,

The world is in a global economic slump teetering on a global depression. Who is buying/going to buy Chinese products? Commodity traders from Neptune?

The emerging foreign auto industry in Russia might be a big surprise to you but it makes sense that the Euro's would start manufacturing autos in a county will a large and mostly dormant auto industry. Labor is cheap and regulations only exist for those without money or political connections. The ability for the middle class to get credit to buy cars appeared almost overnight, so it would stand to reason that short term demand would be off the charts. To say this is an indicator that the established markets are losing importance is quite wrong to say the least.

The US has armed Georgia since 2002? You call giving Georgia 6-8 mothballed hand me down National Guard Huey’s from Vietnam arming Georgia? It was a bribe to get Georgia to join the Coalition of the Willing. [url]http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jjCNfv_hN7dzfcaXwielvnLpfRrA[/url] .Your conspiracy theories about what is/has happened in Georgia just doesn’t line up with the actual facts. Russia b1tch slapped Georgia while the world watch – not that I am advocating anything different and then after the fact said ‘Hey!’. W sitting next to Putin during the Olympics just goes to show what a mindless puppet he is. Even Carter showed he was a bigger man then W standing up to the Soviets vis a via the Olympics.

When I lived in Germany it was a cradle to grave socialist state. But since Bonn was still the capital then it’s been a while. Does ISG’s own German based Dr S have any insight on the current state of affairs in the Fatherland?

CB, I’m sure you are heart broken but I doubt you’ll be receiving a direct reply from me – well except for this one. Your views are too far on the fringe to warrant.

Jewish support for Obama is weak compared to other Democratic candidates. Most Israelis do not like him, not a good sign for Obama. In fact some right wing Jews compare Obama to Hitler. Israelis prefer McCain.
I guarantee an Israel-Iran war will happen within the next 12 months following the election if Obama wins.

Germany is a cradle to grave welfare state but that will change, like you said a global slowdown is starting, so where are they going to get the money to pay for it, when wealthy foreigners can no longer afford Audis and BMWs?

The whole world is hurting but American leadership is hardly present. With the financial system of the US in disarray, a major reordering of the global economic order is occurring and the United States will be at the short end of the stick. This is not a repeat of 1929, more like a repeat of the 1970s, not great but not as severe as the Depression. The central banks of the world will prevent a depression but at the cost of increased inflation around the world.

Cruiser, sure established markets are getting relatively less important as new markets emerge. Pure logic. The cake expands, and if your share of it doesn't grow, it means it gets smaller. Relatively, was the word.
This week BBC reported slighy lower growth in China. Expected 9% for 2008. It was also mentioned, that Chinese consumer can afford 15 times less than his Western counterpart. BBC didn't tell if it was a figure for median Chinese consumer, whole China included, or just Chinese middle class in coastal cities. However, given sustained growth if Chinese economy, and shear number of consumers in Asia, it becomes evident that "commodity traders from Neptune" are out of luck.

[quote=Cruiser D]The US has armed Georgia since 2002? You call giving Georgia 6-8 mothballed hand me down National Guard Huey’s from Vietnam arming Georgia? It was a bribe to get Georgia to join the Coalition of the Willing. [url]http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM...caXwielvnLpfRrA[/url] .Your conspiracy theories about what is/has happened in Georgia just doesn’t line up with the actual facts. Russia b1tch slapped Georgia while the world watch – not that I am advocating anything different and then after the fact said ‘Hey!’.[/quote]
Giving (outdated) military hardware to someone, is by definition arming that person.
You don't believe Georgia deployed 2000 troops in Iraq for 6-8 Hueys, do you? Shakashvili did it for NATO membership, financial support and his long wish to escape Russian influence. He also counted on transit fees from Nabucco pipeline, because there is no Georgian economy to talk about. Moreover, you seem to agree what happened in Georgia but mark my comments "conspiracy theories". Sounds quite contradictory to me. From the article you refer to:

[i]"The US military has had a longstanding program to train Georgian troops for deployments in Iraq..."[/i] and then [i]"US military trainers not involved in Georgia conflict: military".[/i] Pentagon has spoken.

Like I pointed out, Israel was deeply involved in both arms deals and training, as others who support Nabucco pipeline. Let me quote the [url=http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=SimpleSite/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1218710400132]Jerusalem Post[/url]:
[i]"Georgia's Deputy Defense Minister Batu Kutelia said that Georgian corporals and sergeants train with German alpine units, the navy work with French instructors and special operations and urban warfare troops are taught by Israelis."

"Georgia's defense minister, Davit Kezerashvili, is a former Israeli who is fluent in Hebrew, and is said to have contributed to military cooperation."[/i]

Please, don't try to convince me that the US, main supporter of Georgia, were excluded from all this. Anyway, since Georgia is a closed chapter, next hotbed will be Israel/Iran, though a quick fix similar to Osirak 1981 or Syria 2007 seems unlikely, but desirable. [url=http://www.thejewishweek.com/viewArticle/c39_a13193/News/International.html]Others[/url] present much more progressive approach:

[i]"It seems to me if there is a deal with Russia on Iran, it will come in the next administration fairly early,” said Hough, the Brookings Institution’s former top Russian specialist. “It will involve the United States giving up on NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia.” In addition, he said, “The new administration has got to decide whether to go ahead with missiles defenses in Eastern Europe."[/i]

Well, majority of Ukrainians (58% vs. 24%) are opposing NATO membership, and president Yushchenko's popularity at 4-5% certainly doesn't help. Georgia's way to NATO is closed for foreseeable future, or at the very best, until it clears up its border issues. Practically, until Georgia officially gives up S.Ossetia and Abchazia. I wouldn't hold my breath.
So, if Russians can use their influence on Iran in exchange for some favours, why not. Sounds plausible to me.

[QUOTE=CBGBConnisur]Jewish support for Obama is weak compared to other Democratic candidates. Most Israelis do not like him, not a good sign for Obama.[/quote]
Why do you think Obama is less popular among American Jews than McCain? I would buy it if all Jews were conservative. All are not conservative.
I would buy it, if all Jews perceived Obama as less inclined to support Israel. Well, I simply don't know.
I would also buy it, if this attitude is based on 'traditions'. Same 'traditions' as in Dixie. Hopefully I'm wrong.


[QUOTE=CBGBConnisur]I guarantee an Israel-Iran war will happen within the next 12 months following the election if Obama wins.[/quote]
Yes, I agree. The question is how Israel [url=http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1355]plans[/url] to execute the strike/s and how credible rumors of Iran's pre-emptive strike on Israel are.
[i]"Israeli intelligence estimates the summer months are critical for acting against Iran’s nuclear advances, especially uranium enrichment which Iran refuses to forego. If it is not stopped by September or October of 2008, it will be too late; Iran will have crossed the threshold to the last lap of its military program."[/i]


[QUOTE=CBGBConnisur]Germany is a cradle to grave welfare state but that will change, like you said a global slowdown is starting, so where are they going to get the money to pay for it, when wealthy foreigners can no longer afford Audis and BMWs?[/quote]
We have heard it before, EU was doomed, Scandinavian social welfare was doomed, German economy was doomed. Give it up, it won't happend. Of course, welfare systems were far more generous in the 70/80's, and then reformed every decade. I'm not sure what you guys understand by the sole expression "welfare".
I would like to point out the fact that Germany alone has been world's [url=http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch5en/conc5en/leadingtraders.html]largest[/url] exporter for x consecutive years. Quite an achievement by an 83mln-inhabitants country.
Besides German economy doesn't rely only on Audi and BMW, as many foreigners tend to think. Domestic and European automobile markets are most important, and I don't think there will ever be times "when wealthy foreigners can no longer afford Audis and BMWs". Wealthy foreigners simply start to pop up elsewhere. Hey, recessions are hitting markets on a regular basis. It's not like end of the world. However, if you seriously think about compeating with China, you either manufacture superiour quality products/services, or bring them to market at as low price as the Chinese do. Does either option seem viable?

I did not say the EU was going to collapse but things are going to change in the weakening global economy. Europe as a socialist non militaristic entity will soon be replaced by a different order. Already there is talk of a Permanent EU President, I doubt it will be French, most likely German. Europe has had a very long history of militarism, it has the industrial, technological, and scientific resources to build a powerful military machine. I do see a future where the EU will become a major world power and will be counterbalanced by a rapidly expanding Asian power bloc led by Russia and China but will include other Asian nations including Japan and India.

Israel will attack Iran but fail in removing the Iranian nuclear threat, eventually a nuclear Iran will threaten Europe and Europe will fight back. The EU will also cheat the Israelis, possibly forcing Israel to give major concessions to the Palestinians. Its also quite well known that European Muslims have become increasingly radicalized and unpopular in many European countries. Germany for example has an anti-Muslim political party, its small but its existence confirms growing fear of Islam in Europe. At the same time Europeans are increasingly anti-semetic, especially in the wake of the current financial chaos anti-semetism in Europe is coming back.

As far as Obama is concerned many Jews have not been as enthusiastic about him as they have towards other Democrats, Hilary Clinton and Al Gore in particular, the reason is that he will not wage wars in the Middle East in Israel's interests, and anyway Israel and the USA's interests are beginning to diverge.

Lee, your logic is that as emerging markets come to exist the established market means less? You toss that and the word logic in the same sentence?

You are all over the place on your Chinese economy comments. Now China has a self sustaining economy that could handle the absence of a booming world market and demand for their exports?

Who said the socialist economies of Europe is doomed, I'm actually saying the opposite, it seems to work. Germany is a large export nation because of 1) their high quality products 2) a very large an extremely efficient industrial base 3) A high protectionism market - products go out, but they don't come in. American used to be the same way during the 1940’, 50’ and 60’s. But along the way the masses bought into the myth that capitalism and a free market is good for all. It isn’t, it’s a minority win, majority loss system. The politicians who bought/were bought sold us out to big business. The masses fell for the lies and drank the cool aid.

Georgia is a 3rd string country at most. What we want from them is to be a name and number on the Coalition of the Willing. Keeping them from the Russian sphere of influence is a distant and obviously second at best. The dysfunctional Russian army rolled over them like a NFL team playing a junior high school team. If that’s the best so called American and Israel training can bring it’s time to take it up a notch. Or to put it more bluntly the US could care less about Georgia, however they are willing to pander to us in hopes it will bring them closer to the West and the EU.

Are the majority of people in the Ukraine opposed to NATO membership? Yes. Is the majority opposed to EU membership? Hell no. Ukraine doesn’t see the need for NATO to protect them against the Russian Bear, they actually have a military and the means to defend themselves if they the country would stay united under a Russian attack. Also an attack against Ukraine would bring a much stronger response then ‘Hey!’ from the US. Who knows, W might not even sit next to Putin while they were attacking. The European response would be even stronger. Georgia is however an easily expendable pawn on the world chess game. Besides, you want to destroy Russian without even firing a shot or saying ‘boo’, drop oil to under $50/barrel. OPEC’s currently making empty promises of dropping production. Russia has already given a flat out ‘nyet!’ to a production drop, the Russian economy can not survive without oil. In ten years time if the American government does right by it’s people, oil and the Middle East will be non factors. Russian will be back to being the paper tiger (err, bear?) they were during the 90's.

The EU will not be a united political force for quite some time. It still takes them a few days to argue out who’s cheese and bottled water will be used during conferences. Someone mention the new position of EU president might be filled by Germany, then maybe France. I think the front runners currently are Blair and one of the ex PM’s of Ireland.

Israel will not be attacking Iran.

Keep smoking the pot Cruiser D hippie boy, Israel is going to attack Iran, maybe they won't recent AP polls show a tie in the race for the White House, it contradicts every other poll showing Obama with a commanding lead.

Instead of some left wing news source or a wannabe right wing source like the trash is that is Fox News, try the American Conservative, a great publication.
Europe's socialist economy will collapse and it will be back to the "Sieg Heil" days again.

[QUOTE=CBGBConnisur]Keep smoking the pot Cruiser D hippie boy, Israel is going to attack Iran, maybe they won't recent AP polls show a tie in the race for the White House, it contradicts every other poll showing Obama with a commanding lead.

Instead of some left wing news source or a wannabe right wing source like the trash is that is Fox News, try the American Conservative, a great publication.
Europe's socialist economy will collapse and it will be back to the "Sieg Heil" days again.[/QUOTE]

The only pole I trust is the Zogby poll -

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 52.2%, McCain 40.3%

[url]http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/[/url]

Polls having Obama up in the 60% range is nonsense. McCain hasn't broken 40% high enough to beat the margin of error for one thing. The truth is Dems out number Republicans 4:1 in most cases. So you'll have high initial turnout among early and absent voters, mostly white. In FLA for example, some stats have just been released.

Of the early voters which started yesterday (10/22) -

39% Dem/46% Repub

Expect that gap to close as many of educated white folk will not be voting on Nov 4th, they already have. Since the poor population/working class don't usually know about absent bailouts or aren't paying attention, will vote on Nov 4th and turnout will be extremely (for the US) high.

I predict 65%-70% turnout and that's HIGH

I don't know about other parts of the country but people in the Northeast generally vote on the 4th, from MIT professors to per diem laborers. Absentee ballots and/or early ballots aren't tallied until election day.

The College (Uni for you Euro's) educated tend to vote progressive - which isn't Republican.

University professors and academics almost always vote left of center, that does not mean all educated people are liberals. I know plenty of people with advanced degrees, most of who are professionals who are politically conservative. I had a professor who is teaches at a prestigious Ivy League university who thinks Ronald Reagan was the greatest person after Jesus, still he is in a minority.

Anyway a lot can happen in these days, Joe Biden was just recently opening his big mouth that Obama is going to be "tested" by a major international incident. My best hunch is that it will involve a confrontation between Israel and Iran.

Anyway I wish Obama good luck, he is going to get my overseas vote. My own belief is that he will be tested like no other leader in American history, he is going to be in over his head in January with major problems compared to Bush whose first six months were quiet but who was given the task of taking on the biggest crisis in American history up until that point, September 11th.

The Zogby poll has went up and down, I think Real Clear Politics and Pollster offer the most accurate estimates because they take an average of all major polls. The Fox News poll that came out recently makes me hold out some hope that Obama will win, because he was leading by 9 points over McCain on that one, big surprise, considering Fox News' obvious right wing bias, still Rupert Murdoch was predicting an Obama landslide in 2008, I think it will be a victory but not a landslide.

[QUOTE=CBGBConnisur]University professors and academics almost always vote left of center, that does not mean all educated people are liberals. I know plenty of people with advanced degrees, most of who are professionals who are politically conservative. I had a professor who is teaches at a prestigious Ivy League university who thinks Ronald Reagan was the greatest person after Jesus, still he is in a minority.

Anyway a lot can happen in these days, Joe Biden was just recently opening his big mouth that Obama is going to be "tested" by a major international incident. My best hunch is that it will involve a confrontation between Israel and Iran.

Anyway I wish Obama good luck, he is going to get my overseas vote. My own belief is that he will be tested like no other leader in American history, he is going to be in over his head in January with major problems compared to Bush whose first six months were quiet but who was given the task of taking on the biggest crisis in American history up until that point, September 11th.

The Zogby poll has went up and down, I think Real Clear Politics and Pollster offer the most accurate estimates because they take an average of all major polls. The Fox News poll that came out recently makes me hold out some hope that Obama will win, because he was leading by 9 points over McCain on that one, big surprise, considering Fox News' obvious right wing bias, still Rupert Murdoch was predicting an Obama landslide in 2008, I think it will be a victory but not a landslide.[/QUOTE]

Actually according to news reports we bombed Syria, Oct Surprise anybody???



In any event, I think this country is war weary and this was foolish if somebody high up ordered this attack.

Of course this is Football Sunday not much is going to get through until Monday...

I just wish it was over and we can focus on Nov 5th...

I was on the USGS web site and found that there are currently 130 Geothermal projects going on with FULL FUNDING from Congress in '05. Oh yeah our Congress isn't doing anything. That's because people don't pay attention and much more worried about if somebody is Gay, if their daughter is dating a Black Man and if Lindsay Lohan shaves her pussy...

In any event, that's compared to I think 30 nuclear projects and umm we still don't know where to store the waste....

So basically I guess what I am saying is electing anybody isn't say much but undoing deadlocks in Congress and MAYBE setting policy but Congress passes policy if we paid attention more we would have HR 676 passed already and not about how we can "push" Obama into supporting that, when he's gotten $6+ Million for his campaign from the Health Care Industry.

Ranked 7th, guess who's #1....

[url]http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/indus.php?cycle=2008&cid=N00009638[/url]

[QUOTE=Cruiser D]I don't know about other parts of the country but people in the Northeast generally vote on the 4th, from MIT professors to per diem laborers. Absentee ballots and/or early ballots aren't tallied until election day.

The College (Uni for you Euro's) educated tend to vote progressive - which isn't Republican.[/QUOTE]

Anytime there's an election the electoral map looks the same...

Northeast - BLUE

West Coast - BLUE

Its the MIDDLE of the country that always HOLDS things up!

[QUOTE=DJ FourMoney]Actually according to news reports we bombed Syria, Oct Surprise anybody???



In any event, I think this country is war weary and this was foolish if somebody high up ordered this attack.

Of course this is Football Sunday not much is going to get through until Monday...

I just wish it was over and we can focus on Nov 5th...

[/QUOTE]

Nine civilians killed in a small village, among them; a father and his four sons....

[QUOTE=Balluba]Nine civilians killed in a small village, among them; a father and his four sons....[/QUOTE]

Yep dayum shame.