This is one reason Putin has already lost
[QUOTE=Cons68;2682790]These events have turned them into rabid Russian haters. This will not go off in 20 or 30 years. This will linger a long time.[/QUOTE]Putin believed his own fantasy, further fed by the lies of his sycophants, that Ukraine wasn't really a nation, that they longed to be part of Russia again, and that the Russian army would be welcomed as liberators.
When that didn't happen he unleashed the kind of brutality one might expect from a rejected and jilted lover. A kind of "If I can't have you then I'm going to completely ruin you" sentiment. Even the formerly sympathetic areas in Eastern Ukraine will be impossible to effectively manage. Sure, Putin can station many troops in areas he manages to seize and hold, but those areas will never be a willing and productive part of Russia. Instead, they will continue to bleed Russia of manpower and resources while the vast majority of the world keeps sanctions in effect.
Putin will have turned Russia into a larger version of North Korea, a true pariah state. That assumes, of course, that he manages to stay in power after such a humiliating defeat and display of weakness. He raised expectations in Russia to an extremely high level such that the general belief was that Kyiv would be quickly conquered and the Zelensky government overthrown. Instead, Putin's army had to retreat from the Kyiv front in humiliating fashion and Zelensky remains in power. No matter how hard the Kremlin spin doctors try, Russian citizens recognize this as a defeat and a profound failure to achieve the desired objective. They may not be able to freely talk about it, but they surely understand what's happened. And that can't be good for Putin's future prospects.
Good Shit (I mean Ship) Russia is up the creek without a paddle
[QUOTE=PedroMorales;2682726]The current government is cleaning up the oligarch issue in Russia and also in Ukraine, where Clown President is the world's richest comedian, with over $1.3 billion in foreign banks.
Russia does not need American comments on its system of governance.
America does not support or export democracy. That is a self serving fallacy.
America has no values, let alone democratic values.[/QUOTE]And sinking fast, because poor Putin and his pussilanimous posse of pipsqueaks have collectively pulled the plug!
Every passing day the tide turns further against Russia. They're in a constant state of loss: whether it be territory, or status, or support, etc. Even Kazakhstan is distancing itself, which is a shocker since Putin just bailed out the Kazakh leader not long ago. That's gratitude for you, eh?
Oh, and as I predicted, Finland is reportedly submitting their NATO application by April 14th. Which means Putin will have yet another member of NATO sitting on his border. And Poland is buying about $5 billion worth of US (Abrams) tanks and is offering to host NATO nukes.
Everywhere you look, assuming one isn't deluded enough to believe one's own propaganda, Putin is losing ground. Russia is totally fucked and has no future. When that reality dawns on the people, when it can't be hidden any longer and the curtain is pulled back, it's not going to be good for anyone in the Russian leadership, especially Putin.
Buh-bye, tovarisch!
Per the article, Prokhorov wasn't a dual Russia-Israel citizen
[QUOTE=Golfinho;2683654]Russian? His "home country"? LOL.
With his dual passport dusted off, this rat is going to his home country.[/QUOTE]The Jpost article mentioned that he applied for citizenship upon arrival and his application was reviewed and approved under the "Right of Return" laws pertaining to Jews born outside Israel.
That puts him in a different category from Russian oligarchs who already had Israeli citizenship like, IIRC, Roman Abramovich. That's because someone with pre-existing dual-citizenship already had an escape door available, but Prokhorov abandoned Russia without having that in place.
So, while I'm sure he had people working behind the scenes to grease the skids, there was still some degree of risk that things could go wrong. So that brings me back to my original point, which is that the easiest path would have been to stay in Russia. As an oligarch he had all the privileges and advantages available to the elite.
So why take on the risk of leaving? Any amount of risk, large or small, is still greater than staying put. It's my guess that he looked at Russia's bleak future and decided it was worth the risk to jump ship when the opportunity presented itself.
The elites don't give a shit about what regular people do, but they watch each other like a hawk. With Chubais leaving, and now Prokhorov, others are probably asking themselves whether they should also head for the exits.
Dancing around the facts doesn't change them
[QUOTE=Golfinho;2683969]Pre-existing. "Citizen" of the ethno-religious state by birthright.[/QUOTE]I don't know what your problems with Jews are, and I frankly couldn't care less.
What I do care about is being factually accurate. If someone is a citizen (sole or dual), that's a factual statement of legal status. And that legal status entitles them to carry the passport of their country (ies) of citizenship.
As a factual matter, Prokhorov was NOT a citizen of Israel until he 1) Arrived; 2) Applied; 3) Had his application approved.
At any point in that process, Israel retained the right to decline approval. Although declination was unlikely, there is still a case-by-case review and certification that needs to happen. Until ALL the requirements were met, and approval granted, Prokhorov was not an Israeli citizen.
Those are the plain facts, whether you choose to accept them or not, that's entirely up to you.
The reason the elites matter
[QUOTE=WyattEarp;2683944]I would put Chubais and Prokhorov in different categories. I sense Putin's tolerance for billionaire oligarchs is waning. It doesn't sound like Putin needs them anymore.
As a man who manipulated the system for his gain after the fall of the Soviet Union, I'm don't think Prokhorov deserves much of our consideration. Besides many of these oligarchs seem to have been more like globe-trotting world citizens than Russian citizens.[/QUOTE]There are undoubtedly many differences between Chubais and Prokhorov. My main reason for discussing them is because they provide a window into what might be going on in elite circles. I agree that Putin probably needs oligarchs less than they need him, but that doesn't mean they don't (some of them, at least) still have a level of influence and power. If, for example, Putin were to be ousted, it's likely someone from elite circles would replace him.
To my mind there are roughly three types of oligarchs. First, those who are already locked into Russia by existing sanctions. That group, as least publicly, are more likely to double down in their support of Putin because their fates are linked with his. They don't have any easy exit route. Second, those who already lived abroad some or most of the time, perhaps with dual-citizenship status. One notable example is Roman Abramovich who, even though (IIRC) he's subject to some sanctions, still had a relatively easy exit route. Third, those who are in between, like Prokhorov. He had money and status enough to allow him to ride out the storm in Russia, but chose to leave and needed to create an exit strategy to do so.
It's that third group that interests me most. How many more will abandon ship and how will that affect the mindset of other elites?
Interesting times! Stay tuned.