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[QUOTE=Tiny12;3021343]Sir Tony Brenton had an interesting take on the meeting on CNN this afternoon. Brenton is a career British civil servant and old Russia hand who served as Britain's ambassador to Russia from 2004 to 2008, during Labour Party administrations.
Witkoff said today Russia was willing to accept security guarantees from the USA And other nations, akin to NATO's Title 5. Title 5 states that an armed attack against one NATO member is an attack against them all. Conversations between the Trump administration and European officials appear to confirm that Russia has agreed to accept robust security guarantees for Ukraine.
Brenton said Russia didn't and won't agree, under any circumstances, to Ukrainian membership in NATO. But a guarantee like what Witkoff described is just as good.
Brenton in fact believes the two countries now have a good path towards peace. And the meeting this Friday may be the beginning of the end. The security guarantee was the most problematic stumbling block..[/QUOTE]The membership in NATO is not acceptable as it means NATO's infrastructure and Participation of Ukraine herself in the block. Now, Russia has to able to enforce the neutrality: trust but verify but enforce. How this is going to be achieved is a mystery to me.
The second issue is dealing with many military bi-lateral agreements that Ukraine has signed recently. They all have to go. That 100 year agreement with the UK is one of them.
Any type of a guarantee resembling Article 5 is meaningless. Not only no one can profit from it now, it won't become any impediment to restart the conflict any time in future should the need come, and believe me Ukraine will be blamed for the restart.
Finally, unless the total re-balance is achieved and the relationships are improved between the EU, the US and the RF, this treaty may become short lived and be forgotten soon once the current leadership change. This is why I am pessimistic and expect a large scale conflict in years to come soon.
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Too old, senile Trump sucking so good criminal Putin on red carpet, now want to give him Crimea when he criticized while invasion, and Dombass when Putin was never able to defeat Donetsk. Putin just waiting to cum in Orange mouth and dirty red carpet. Trump is just a sucker clown, not reliable, fucking stupid Americans and trying with our world.
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The Alaska summit was a shit show.
Putin got everything he wanted and gave nothing in return.
The level of incompetence in US foreign policy is astounding. First Witkoff gives 3 different statements what was agreed before and what will be confirmed at the summit. Of course, the outcome was the 4th version, because like with the trade negotiations, anything that was discussed without Trump present means exactly zero. That is just for starters.
In foreign policy symbolism matter. So let's start with that image with US soldiers literally on their knees rolling the red carpet towards the Russian government plane. The Russian (dis) information space had a great time with that one. I am old enough to remember the weeks with endless hours on TV with people clutching their pearls when Obama saluted a marine with a coffee cup in his hand or when he was wearing a tan suit. Then you have Trump waiting for Putin on the red carpet, then suddenly all smiles and clapping, yes, like a circus seal, clapping for a murderous thug. He looked like a freshman who gets to meet the star quarterback. The fact that they didn't have the common meal and the press conference after their meeting shows you that even Trump knows that it was a disaster. Of course, he can't admit that, so know the spin machine is revving at high speed. My explanation why the meeting was cut short is that Putin said "Donnie, the blowjob in your car was enough, no need for a second one. I am in a rush to get back, I have an appointment with my hair dresser".
From what came out so far, Putin asks for Ukraine to give up Donbass entirely, the areas that have the best Ukrainian fortifications. All he offered is that he doesn't ask for 100% of Zaporishia and Kherson. As long as these regions stay in the Russian constitution he can come back later and argue that well, actually. Then there is the vague "root causes of the war" which for him mean a pro Russian government and a severely reduced Ukrainian army.
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[QUOTE=Tiny12;3021343]Sir Tony Brenton had an interesting take on the meeting on CNN this afternoon. Brenton is a career British civil servant and old Russia hand who served as Britain's ambassador to Russia from 2004 to 2008, during Labour Party administrations.
Witkoff said today Russia was willing to accept security guarantees from the USA And other nations, akin to NATO's Title 5. Title 5 states that an armed attack against one NATO member is an attack against them all. Conversations between the Trump administration and European officials appear to confirm that Russia has agreed to accept robust security guarantees for Ukraine.
Brenton said Russia didn't and won't agree, under any circumstances, to Ukrainian membership in NATO. But a guarantee like what Witkoff described is just as good..[/QUOTE]Yeah, I think it is different this time too. Trump had made a campaign promise on fixing the Ukraine war in 24 hours and Putin used that to his advantage. He kept saying all the right things to Trump but doing all the wrong things by pushing for more territory and ramping up the drone fights.
Interestingly, it was Melania Trump who got the Don to see the light on how he was being played by Putin. That is when Trump got pissed. He smoothed things over with Zelensky and told the Russians he was really going to clamp down on things and by clamping down, that meant taking Russian oil tankers via the USA Navy and increasing LNG shipments massively to Europe. With a reduction and oil and gas income, Russia is dead in the water.
The war mongers were all saying that Russia was coming from Europe. Russia has 110 million inhabitants versus 449 million in the EU. When I read this, I was laughing at the war monger deep state types that were pushing this Russia is coming for Europe narrative. They always want these forever wars and the checks that come with them.
And while there may have been popular support on both sides at the start of the war, that support has gone to nothing. Everyone on both sides is sick of this shit.
I am still not sure the USA should be in NATO, but one nice side effect of this war is Europe has stepped up their defense spending, and they have cut down on their idiotic green energy spending that left Spain and Portugal in the dark.
Trump did an amazing job with Israel and Iran which was something I worried about. I thought Trump was just going to have us doing Israel's bidding, but he blasted both Israel and Iran when the cease fire was violated, and things have calmed there. He deserves great credit for how he handled that situation, and I think we will see the same here.
Thing is even if he brings peace to Ukraine, the Democratic douches will still find something new to gripe about with Trump.
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[QUOTE=Elvis2008;3021465]...Trump did an amazing job with Israel and Iran ...Thing is even if he brings peace to Ukraine, the Democratic douches will still find something new to gripe about with Trump.[/QUOTE]For a perspective, read Frank Bruni's column in the NYT: "Give Trump the Nobel!
[URL]https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/18/opinion/trump-nobel-peace-prize.html[/URL]
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[QUOTE=PaulInZurich;3021454]
From what came out so far, Putin asks for Ukraine to give up Donbass entirely, the areas that have the best Ukrainian fortifications. All he offered is that he doesn't ask for 100% of Zaporishia and Kherson. As long as these regions stay in the Russian constitution he can come back later and argue that well, actually. Then there is the vague "root causes of the war" which for him mean a pro Russian government and a severely reduced Ukrainian army.[/QUOTE]You obviously haven't been paying attention to anything Putin has been saying since forever. The root cause of this conflict was NATO expansion into Ukraine. That was Putin's red line and will never be allowed. Ukraine will have to be neutral along the lines of the Austrian model.
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[QUOTE=Tiny12;3019075]Gentlemen, In light of developments today, has your prognosis for an end to the war improved? Or do you think peace is as far away as ever? Thanks in advance.[/QUOTE]Let's see what happens today in DC.
Considering what is currently only being talked about and nothing agreed:
Ukraine giving up the entire Donbas, Russia freezing the contact line in Zap and Kherson, recognition of Crimea being Russian and no NATO in Ukraine.
I still find it a bit hard to believe that Putin would agree not to capture all of Zap and Kherson as they are now according to the Russian constitution a part of Russia. But then when I look at the whole picture and the geography, Russia would get the entire Donbas and would get to keep the land bridge to Crimea, get recognition of Crimea and there would be no Ukraine in NATO. Throw in some bits about Russian language and church rights, and you get some sanctions lifted, I think it is still a pretty good deal and a huge win IMHO.
Thoughts?
P.S I think the Europeans are going to try their hardest to get the corrupt illegal dictator of Ukraine with no mandate to walk away to keep this tragedy going. If that happens, I really hope Trump and the United States step aside. Then it will be settled on the battlefield of course with a comprehensive Russian victory and Ukraine losing not just 4 but possibly 4 more Oblasts. Ukraine really should take this deal to save what is left.
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Europe don t trust Trump, when we know Putin is stronger than him, too old senile, playing for everything like in casino.
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Couple of points to emphasize again.
This one for EU and UK leaders: Russia expects Ukraine to be neutral, non-aligned and non-nuclear. One of the goals of the SMO is demilitarization of Ukraine, I. E. Russia will not allow the current AFU forces to remain forward. Why would a peaceful neutral state want a million men army armed to the teeth?
Humanitarian aspect: All rights of Russian speaking and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church should be restored.
I can't imagine Rada voting for the above and the current government implementing the comprehensive agreement of this nature.
Remember, as I posted before, 'loose-loose' is a prevailing rural mentality that always shapes the policy and actions in Ukraine.
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[QUOTE=Questner;3021569]Couple of points to emphasize again.
This one for EU and UK leaders: Russia expects Ukraine to be neutral, non-aligned and non-nuclear. One of the goals of the SMO is demilitarization of Ukraine, I. E. Russia will not allow the current AFU forces to remain forward. Why would a peaceful neutral state want a million men army armed to the teeth?
Humanitarian aspect: All rights of Russian speaking and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church should be restored.
I can't imagine Rada voting for the above and the current government implementing the comprehensive agreement of this nature.
Remember, as I posted before, 'loose-loose' is a prevailing rural mentality that always shapes the policy and actions in Ukraine.[/QUOTE]When Putin is a liar and not respecting agreements, Ukraine and Europe have to protect versus such international criminal. He is crazy, but we know now his army is weak, when he was not even able to defeat Donetsk in 3 years and half. But he is stronger than too old Trump, so Europe can t trust them both.
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[QUOTE=JohnClayton;3021477]For a perspective, read Frank Bruni's column in the NYT: "Give Trump the Nobel!
[URL]https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/18/opinion/trump-nobel-peace-prize.html[/URL][/QUOTE]The last South Park episode skewered Trump and Kristi Noem and I laughed my ass off. Republicans were polled, and they liked it too. It was actually funny, and I thought Trump's spokesperson and Noem's response were pretty lame.
That some NYT columnist wrote the trash that he did ranks up their with Deniro's fuck Trump speech, [URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceQ0Zb1G8Io.[/URL] If you thought that editorial or Deniro were great, you are in a cult.
I think the reason one is funny and the other two are not is South Park is using satire and exaggeration and the NYT and Deniro just come across as bitter losers.
And the timing is terrible. Trump is on the verge of something historic, and you Democratic douche cultists cannot stand to see him have any success even if it means saving millions of lives.
Trump could cure cancer, and you all would still find something to gripe about.
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[QUOTE=Elvis2008;3021706]...Trump is on the verge of something historic...[/QUOTE]Wondering what that would be?
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Now that a lot of the BS from the Trump administration is out of the way, it's clear the Russians never explicitly said they would let go of the parts of Zaporizhya and Kherson they still don't control in exchange for full control of Donetsk. All this talk about security guarantees and the non-sense the Europeans are spewing (article 5 guarantees, European troops in Ukraine, seriously what planet do these warmongers live on?) are also non starters.
Putin will never meet the so called President of Ukraine with no mandate. That clown just wants a photo op and to try to look tough with Putin. Putin isn't stupid to meet with this corrupt actor with no solid agenda and stuff ready to sign.
So unfortunately, as I predicted months ago, this will be decided on the battlefield, and the result will be a Russian victory of course.
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[QUOTE=BloodRed;3022459]Now that a lot of the BS from the Trump administration is out of the way, it's clear the Russians never explicitly said they would let go of the parts of Zaporizhya and Kherson they still don't control in exchange for full control of Donetsk. All this talk about security guarantees and the non-sense the Europeans are spewing (article 5 guarantees, European troops in Ukraine, seriously what planet do these warmongers live on?) are also non starters.
Putin will never meet the so called President of Ukraine with no mandate. That clown just wants a photo op and to try to look tough with Putin. Putin isn't stupid to meet with this corrupt actor with no solid agenda and stuff ready to sign.
So unfortunately, as I predicted months ago, this will be decided on the battlefield, and the result will be a Russian victory of course.[/QUOTE]Russia weak army was not able to win and take Donetsk in 3 years and half and Zelensky is more supported by Ukrainians than criminal dictator Putin by Russians, when he can t even travel in the world. When we can t trust Trump show and business, our world have to make Russia broke, to make Russians eating Putin from starvation, when already big inflation in Russia. And same in USA with Trump taxes. All my support to Ukraine versus Putin and Trump, even Crimea is lost and probably part of Donbass, but not Donetsk yet.
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Good points by all. A week's time has shown Questner and Blood Red were correct in their skepticism. We're back to where we were months ago.
It's a pity. This situation needs to be settled, for the benefit of all involved. Certainly Russia has plenty of good reasons to be aggrieved, going back to the broken promises made to Gorbachev. Certainly if the tables were turned the United States wouldn't sit still if Mexico were on track to become a member of the Warsaw Pact.
But why can't the sides fast forward and take this to an end before there are a million more casualties? Russia and Europe and Ukraine and the USA should be on the same side. Imagine the effect on the prosperity of the countries if they could, say, each cut defense expenditures by 2% or 3% of GDP. And if trade, like Russian gas flows to Europe, resumes. Sanctions need to go. Unfortunately, they have a way of dragging on forever, like Cuba. Look at Iran. That country was dragged into penury and remains there. Admittedly Russia has weathered sanctions much better, but they're still a drag.
With Trump in the United States presidency, there's a good chance they would be lifted if the fighting stops. Also Trump would appear to be more sympathetic to Russia's positions than most western leaders. There's about a 3-1/2 year window before Trump leaves office during which relations can be righted. I hope the various sides take the steps to make that happen.
And you know Elvis, yes you have to give Trump credit for at least trying. I hope he doesn't give up.
