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[QUOTE=Amadeuss;3065266]Disasters provide opportunities.
Political discussions are actually unwanted on a monger forum!
But how about the pussies in Kiev? Are they hungry and easy to catch? Any monger to report?[/QUOTE]Another thread: Kiev, for this, when under war of Putin for the fifth year. Wish will finish soon.
While he's one notch below the highest (ministerial) level of the Russian government, he couldn't have reached that post without the endorsement and backing of a strong patron. Putin runs Russia like a Mafia state, and one firm requirement for reaching the upper levels is absolute loyalty to the Don. Also, while principal Ministers can be figureheads, their deputies are often the ones actually running the department. That generally means they have some degree of competence and also knowledge about what goes on behind the scenes. Butsayev's prior government positions included significant leadership roles in both Belgorod and Moscow Oblasts, so he's been around a while and moved around within government.
[URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denis_Butsayev[/URL]
The main point is simply that he was a "made man," a trusted lieutenant, just below the top tier of the hierarchy. Such individuals are not afforded the luxury of leaving voluntarily as they know too much. The FSB, regardless of how effective or efficient one believes them to be, is tasked with maintaining the hierarchy, enforcing discipline, "disappearing" problems, etc. A quick web search reveals some of their (alleged) handiwork.
[URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_Russia-related_deaths_since_2022[/URL]
One of the biggest dangers to any Strong Man form of government is displaying weakness. That's true not only for the leader himself, but also for those parts of the government (like the FSB) used as the leader's enforcement arms. The fact the FSB failed in this instance puts a dent in the perception of strength and control. It's not so much about Butsayev, as an individual, as it is about the cracks in the system that allowed him to escape.
Will there be others? Hard to say and only time will tell. But what's clear is that Butsayev showed it's possible, and I have no doubt there are some in Russia who are working on their own "just in case" escape plan. And, speaking of the perception of strength, it can't be helpful for Putin that this year's Victory Day parade was a shadow of its former versions. It was quite literally the worst in Soviet and Russian history!
Bottom line: A system failure undeniably occurred, a crack in the system. Will it be repaired? Will others try to take advantage? Can the perception of strength be restored? Will there be lasting damage? All questions open to different opinions and worthy of debate (IMO).
[QUOTE=Jmsuttr;3065494]Will there be others? Hard to say and only time will tell. But what's clear is that Butsayev showed it's possible, and I have no doubt there are some in Russia who are working on their own "just in case" escape plan. And, speaking of the perception of strength, it can't be helpful for Putin that this year's Victory Day parade was a shadow of its former versions. It was quite literally the worst in Soviet and Russian history!
Bottom line: A system failure undeniably occurred, a crack in the system. Will it be repaired? Will others try to take advantage? Can the perception of strength be restored? Will there be lasting damage? All questions open to different opinions and worthy of debate (IMO).[/QUOTE]The one thing you can always count on with a military is they are filled with experts who have fought the last war. Ukraine has better drones than Russia does, and Iran is making drones for Russia. That more than anything should tell you how badly Russia is failing.
Peter Zeihan said the Russians would fight like they always had, using their superior number of troops and sacrificing the lives of those men, and Zeihan said the war was Russia's to lose. Well, unmanned drone warfare has stopped the Russians in their tracks. All that is going on now is the two nations are blowing up each other's infrastructure. What is the point of the war now? Putin has lost his troops, his government officials, and his country, and this desertion is the first of many. At least the Ukrainians can say they are defending their home land though I imagine fighting a forever war has sapped their morale as well.
And Trump caught this war-is-easy bug too. The Iranians did more damage with drones and missiles than anyone thought they could. Israel is all focused on Iran not having nukes when Iran could have wiped Israel off the map by destroying its desalination plants, but Iran did not do so even when attacked.
So now we have Trump, Netanyahu, and Putin all in the same boat. The only question is which will be the first to get their head out of their ass and realize they are fighting unwinnable wars.
Despite all his daily bullshits and when he thought could be good to fight China economics, but after spending 30 billions for 0 result, 1 mollah killed, 10 new who want to become martyr, and after failing for peace in Ukraine, Trump was told he lost war versus Iran, just killing Americans for nothing. Criminal Netanyahou is nothing without Trump, if no weapons and no support. Only way to stop Putin is to make Russia broke, what tried EU, but Trump made a big gift to Putin with petrol inflation, making more money for his war. When Americans are really not when electing again Trump, but poor Ukrainians are clever, learning a lot under war, adapting their army, becoming now the reference for drones, better than USA, Russia and China, when Russia and China support Iran versus Trump, when Trump suck Putin versus Ukraine. Cuckold Trump who is too old senile to understand reality of our world, but for sure not able for MAGA, but wars rather than peace and messe with inflation and lost jobs. Just a loser.
When stupid Trump make big gift to his criminal friend Putin with petrol increasing rate, billions for his war, but Ukrainians are fucking Russian petrol production with their best drones. When David became more clever than Goliath. Well played Ukrainians, fuck Russian petrol, gaz and bridges, make Russians go home. Then, could may be the end of dictator Putin and a better life for Russians when thousands ran away.
I know everyone has an opinion about Trump, Netanyahu, Zelenskyy, and Putin. But, IMO, excessive focus on those individuals misses some crucial issues.
Take Netanyahu, for example, no matter how one feels about him it's relevant to ask whether any Israeli leader would have acted in a significantly different way in the aftermath of the October 7th attack? From the Israeli point of view, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis are all doing Iran's bidding. So, while Hamas (in isolation) is one level of problem, adding Iran (and others) to the mix makes it an existential threat. Whether you agree or not doesn't matter and whether you love or hate Netanyahu doesn't matter. That's how Israel views the situation and any Israeli leader would need to act accordingly.
With respect to Trump, the most important question is whether one thinks Iran has been trying to achieve a level of nuclear weapons technology that would make them pretty much untouchable, similar to North Korea? Biden and Obama arguably just looked the other way, or swept the issue under the rug. So, assuming one believes Iran has actual (and dangerous) nuclear ambitions, criticizing Trump misses the point. The more important question is what would another president do if they weren't willing to look the other way?
About Zelenskyy, if he dropped dead or resigned tomorrow, it's virtually certain that his replacement would be someone equally (or more) resistant to the Russian invasion. In fact, one of the leading candidates would probably be General Zaluzhnyi, former armed forces chief and current ambassador to the UK. The idea that Zelenskyy, as an individual, is the problem is missing the forest for the trees. Ukraine sees the conflict as an existential struggle and they don't believe Russia will be satisfied with just the Donbas. Viewing this as an existential threat (similar to how Israel views Iran), any Ukrainian leader would need to act accordingly.
Finally, Putin is probably the best candidate for individual focus. That's because he personally ordered the invasion and he could personally order it to stop. But the bigger question is what happens after? It's certainly possible that Putin could be pushed out of office, especially if he's viewed as weak and a failure. If that happens, his replacement has two choices: First, blame Putin for everything and try to repair the damage. Second, double down on the war against Ukraine. That last choice would probably involve going into full Stalin mode.
But my main point remains. Any focus on the above individuals needs to also consider them in comparison to other alternatives. And those alternative choices would be shaped by the reality of their situations, not by things as we might wish them to be.