Stupid shit in Medellin

Elvis always has his "expert" opinion on every conceivable topic. Of course, logical fallacies, lack of analytical skills, inability to research anything and politicizing everything are the hallmarks of his writings. Let's see if I'm right.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2718634]Viliany's concerns are not reflected by the upper classes my GF runs in. To a person, they are afraid. The day after Gustavo won she texted me and said, "I hope he respects private property."[/QUOTE]Your "GF" [B]according to you[/B] was someone you met on Seeking Arrangement who was selling her lady-parts to support herself and her child. I'm actually happy for you that you found love, and I'm sure she loves your wallet just as much. But now she runs in the upper classes? I nearly choked on my coffee when I read that line.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2718634][B]The former president Uribe is very popular[/B], and she told me the new president Gustavo met with Uribe, and they had a good talk, and that was supposedly reassuring to the higher classes in Colombia per her. Thing is I didn't see the COP go up at all after the meet.[/QUOTE]Alvaro Uribe was (not is) very popular. If you want to read about his career this article gives a brief synopsis. In Colombia today the word "corruption" is frequently heard and it is often used to "describe Uribismo". Today, Uribe is recognized for what he was and is. Just another corrupt politician.

[URL]https://colombiareports.com/alvaro-uribe/[/URL]

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2718634]Thing is when you compare the dollar to other currencies in the region you do not see this type of fall. The Brazilian real, Peruvian sol, Mexican peso [B]have not moved at all[/B] while Colombia has plummeted. This is a country specific issue and I think it reflects that fear. People are selling Colombian assets and currency to get dollars.[/QUOTE]If you look at the last 3 months (2nd quarter 2022) what do we see?

Brazil 13.8% drop vs dollar.

Colombia 19.9% drop.

Argentina 12.8% drop.

Chile 21.7% drop.

Japan 10.5% drop.

Euro 8.0% drop.

Britain 9.7% drop.

Peru 5.4% drop.

Mexico 3.5% drop.

I think the pattern is pretty clear. The higher interest rate on US Government securities (Fed raising rates) has made the dollar very strong against almost all of the world's currencies and in addition inflation is having a deleterious effect.

Colombia sends 31% of its exports to the US, while Brazil and Peru both send about 13% to the US. Which probably accounts for some of the lower currency decline.

It reflects something I've said before: There are too many factors affecting currency trading to point at one single thing.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2718634]Viliany's lecturing on the law is cute. The laws on the books are very often not enforced. Worse, [B]I have seen Hugo Chavez and Morales of Bolivia cut through Constitutional laws like a knife through butter.[/B] Both changed laws such that they could be president for life. The issue to me is not what the law is but how people react when extreme changes are attempted. Are the people going to revolt if this guy is a Chavez want to be?[/QUOTE]"Unimpressed, Uribe loyalists again tried to amend the constitution so the president could run for a third time, but this time the constitutional court stepped in and Uribe was forced to resign in 2010."

This is from the source referenced above. Colombia's Constitutional court blunted the "knife through butter" and Uribe was prevented from running for a third term. Apparently Elvis doesn't understand Colombia very well. It isn't the same as Venezuela or Bolivia (or Cuba for that matter). Here is a link for an explanation about Colombia's Constitutional Court, should Elvis want to learn the how this Court works. It probably does a more complete and accurate job than his "GF".

[URL]https://www.corteconstitucional.gov.co/english/[/URL]

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2718634]And I hope this guy Gustavo is not as anti-oil as Biden is. Gustavo campaigned on no more oil drilling. If he is serious about that, COP at 5,000 is a sure thing. Part of the Chavez-Morales hand book is to take over the energy companies and put your people in so there is not a funded opposition against you.

Chavez drove Venezuelan oil production into the ground, and in the five years before Morales took over natural gas production, Bolivia went from 2 billion cubic meters of nat gas to 10. After he took over, production barely moved, and in both countries, there is a ton of nat gas and oil.

Someone will have to explain to me how taking an axe to your most successful export makes sense.[/QUOTE]I'm not interested in expanding the argument into Venezuela. I would note for you, Elvis, that Chavez was far more popular in his country than Uribe ever was in Colombia. And Chavez died in 2013 and Venezuela's descent into a military supported dictatorship isn't even a remote possibility for Colombia. Bolivia is a very backward country and isn't even remotely comparable to Colombia.

I would note that Petro is a very bright, well-educated man. I'm sure he isn't looking to emulate the policies of failed states. His priorities seem to center around increasing the minimum wage and pensions to a livable level and modernizing the tax code so that the richest citizens pay their fair share.

[QUOTE=Villainy;2718842]Elvis always has his "expert" opinion on every conceivable topic. Of course, logical fallacies, lack of analytical skills, inability to research anything and politicizing everything are the hallmarks of his writings. Let's see if I'm right.

But now she runs in the upper classes? I nearly choked on my coffee when I read that line.[/QUOTE]You start with logical fallacies and the first thing you do is make a presumption about my GF and what circles she runs in. LOL. Why would anyone listen to you after that? That is a great logical analysis. She is a cheap slum ridden WG because that is what you want to believe. Sorry, fool, your notion of her is totally wrong.

And just so you know, trading is based on sentiment. Whose sentiment has been right so far? Hers or yours dumb ass? You are the one saying everything was going to be fine in Colombia with Gustavo, and the currency there has fallen off a cliff.

[QUOTE=Villainy;2718842]If you look at the last 3 months (2nd quarter 2022) what do we see?

Brazil 13.8% drop vs dollar.

Colombia 19.9% drop.[/QUOTE]Why 3 months? Colombia is at an all time low versus the dollar. Mexico, Peru, and Brazil are not. I grant you Chile is at an all time low but Chile is a much smaller economy than Mexico or Brazil.

[QUOTE=Villainy;2718842]Colombia sends 31% of its exports to the US, while Brazil and Peru both send about 13% to the US. Which probably accounts for some of the lower currency decline.[/QUOTE]That has nothing to do with anything.

[QUOTE=Villainy;2718842]It reflects something I've said before: There are too many factors affecting currency trading to point at one single thing.[/QUOTE]Wrong. At this point, all that matters is fear. You do not see currency moves like this based on fundamentals. Contrary to your stupid ass, I know when financial moves are rational and they are emotional. I did not share my "expertise" but what I knew of the feelings of Colombians.

[QUOTE=Villainy;2718842]I would note for you, Elvis, that Chavez was far more popular in his country than Uribe ever was in Colombia.[/QUOTE]And you think that is reassuring to anyone?

[QUOTE=Villainy;2718842]And Chavez died in 2013 and Venezuela's descent into a military supported dictatorship isn't even a remote possibility for Colombia.[/QUOTE]So Chavez was not a dictator? Again, you are not reassuring anyone of anything.

[QUOTE=Villainy;2718842]Bolivia is a very backward country and isn't even remotely comparable to Colombia.[/QUOTE]Again, that is not reassuring. Gustavo followed the Chavez, Morales playbook to get elected.

[QUOTE=Villainy;2718842]I'm sure he isn't looking to emulate the policies of failed states. His priorities seem to center around increasing the minimum wage and pensions to a livable level and modernizing the tax code so that the richest citizens pay their fair share.[/QUOTE]You think your being sure means anything to anyone? LOL.

What pol does not run on similar BS? Here is the thing that matters.

Is Gustavo going to fuck up Colombia's oil industry like he said he was going to or leave it alone?

Because if someone is selling Colombian assets and converting them into dollars because they know Gustavo is going to fuck up Colombia's #1 export, then this panic selling of COP is NOT fear driven but completely fucking rational.

[QUOTE=Paulie97;2718556]You should go give the twit a BJ if you and him aren't one and the same. Unoriginal namecalling and defensive rants would never get a booking at a comedy club.[/QUOTE]I'm only into chicas but I don't judge others for their sexual preferences my friend.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2718942]...the first thing you do is make a presumption about my GF and what circles she runs in. LOL. Why would anyone listen to you after that? That is a great logical analysis. She is a cheap slum ridden WG because that is what you want to believe. Sorry, fool, your notion of her is totally wrong.[/QUOTE]Hey Elvis, you're the one who told all of us that you found your GF on Seeking Arrangement. What do those words mean? Seeking. [B]Arrangement[/B]. What type of arrangement was she seeking?

You swear she wasn't a cheap street-walker in El Centro. OK I'll take your word for this one thing (everything else you say requires verification) but the difference between a street-walker and an escort is really only [B]volume[/B].

I know, I know, you think you've found your own "pretty woman" but from what I hear you're no Richard Gere. More like Chris Farley.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHGmw7wFe5g[/URL]

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2718942]And just so you know, trading is based on sentiment. Whose sentiment has been right so far? Hers or yours dumb ass? You are the one saying everything was going to be fine in Colombia with Gustavo, and the currency there has fallen off a cliff.[/QUOTE]Yes, Elvis. Trading is often based on sentiment. But sentiment about what? The strong dollar? Colombia's rate of inflation? Colombia's economy? Petro's presidency? Which of a dozen factors is the "sentiment" focused on. And does it change from day to day?

As to whose sentiment has been right so far? What are you talking about? I live here. As far as I'm concerned a strong dollar / weak peso is just lovely. I don't need the favorable exchange to enjoy a great life here. But it doesn't hurt either jajajaja.

I do think everything will be fine with Petro but that is neither here nor there. The discussion (try stay on topic Elvis) is about what is causing the peso to be so weak vs the dollar. My point is that there are a bunch of factors involved and only a simpleton thinks that it is all about Petro's election.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2718942]Why 3 months? Colombia is at an all time low versus the dollar. Mexico, Peru, and Brazil are not. I grant you Chile is at an all time low but Chile is a much smaller economy than Mexico or Brazil.[/QUOTE]You are so bad at analysis. Did you ever go to college? Ever take statistics or any kind of analytical courses?

Petro's election came this year. So how has the Colombian peso done this year? It has weakened by 13.5% YTD. That is less than the S&P 500 has declined YTD. Oh and BTW since I'm sure you don't really chose to look at things analytically.

Argentina's peso is at an all time low versus the dollar and has weakened by 24.2% YTD.

Chile's peso is at an all time low versus the dollar and has weakened by 20.7% YTD.

Japan's yen is at a 20 year low versus the dollar and has weakened by 18.7% YTD.

The Euro is at a 20 year low versus the dollar and has weakened by 12.6% YTD.

Yes Mexico, Peru and Brazil have not had the same depreciation in their currency. Yet. Which highlights my point. There are a lot of factors involved. It isn't just an election of which you don't approve.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2718942]Wrong. At this point, all that matters is fear. You do not see currency moves like this based on fundamentals. Contrary to your stupid ass,[B] I know when financial moves are rational and they are emotional. I did not share my "expertise" but what I knew of the feelings of Colombians.[/B][/QUOTE]Oh dear God. You are the world's foremost authority on everything. At least in your own narcissistic mind. I'm surprised you haven't told us how you forsaw all these currency declines and took futures positions.

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2718942]Again, that is not reassuring. Gustavo followed the Chavez, Morales playbook to get elected.[/QUOTE]This is just Elvis ramble. Why don't you show your sources?

[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2718942]Is Gustavo going to fuck up Colombia's oil industry like he said he was going to or leave it alone?
Because if someone is selling Colombian assets and converting them into dollars because they know Gustavo is going to fuck up Colombia's #1 export, then this panic selling of COP is NOT fear driven but completely fucking rational.[/QUOTE]I know this will come as a shock. But currency trading doesn't mean someone is selling assets and converting them into dollars. Sure there may be some of that. But what drives this rate is traders are buying dollars and selling pesos. I would bet a fair amount of those traders haven't even been to Colombia. Like I've said before. There are a lot of factors involved. Just to illustrate.

Colombia's equivalent of the Federal Reserve (Banco de la Republica) has raised the Interest rate from 3. 0% to 7. 5% this year. That is much more than the US Federal Reserve has raised rates.

These moves are designed to tighten money supply and stifle inflation. (Colombia's year over year inflation rate is running at around 9. 5% the last few months) But what happens when you raise interest rates? You slow down the economy because it costs more to borrow funds for expansion, acquisitions etc. Our Federal Reserve does the same thing to try to stifle inflation but it often leads to an economic slowdown (for a while). Clearly an economic slowdown in Colombia would cause the peso to devalue vs the US Dollar.

[URL]https://countryeconomy.com/key-rates/colombia[/URL]

Ask your GF, I'm sure she could explain to you all the economic considerations that would factor into a weakening peso.

[QUOTE=ContinentalF;2718904]Oste knows he's living an unconventional life and isn't hiding it. Many others on here have a hard time being honest with themselves and it shows. Myself included, which is probably why I lurk and don't post.[/QUOTE]Or perhaps some of us are desperate attention seekers with HPD, whilst others don't need to post graphic stories for self-validation. Which is the truly honest position?

[QUOTE=Osteoknot;2719111]And I always use Listerine before and after any oral sex.[/QUOTE]I grew up in a very industrial city and downtown is where we would go to to get blowjobs from the black girls working the street in those days. That was early 70's BTW. Listerine was always in their purses. It must have worked for them then and for you now. I got to laugh though thinking about those days with the sisters and now you doing the same rinse. One thing you should be aware of is giardia. Not sure if the Listerine help for that.

[QUOTE=JustTK;2719193]Or perhaps some of us are desperate attention seekers with HPD, whilst others don't need to post graphic stories for self-validation. Which is the truly honest position?[/QUOTE]What the hell is HPD?

I wondered if it is a new STD or tusi variant.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2719211]What the hell is HPD?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=ChuchoLoco;2719199]I grew up in a very industrial city and downtown is where we would go to to get blowjobs from the black girls working the street in those days. That was early 70's BTW. Listerine was always in their purses. It must have worked for them then and for you now. I got to laugh though thinking about those days with the sisters and now you doing the same rinse. One thing you should be aware of is giardia. Not sure if the Listerine help for that.[/QUOTE]But a user here once posted a testimonial from a beauty queen who gave over ten-thousand blowjobs with never a single even slight problem from oral sexual disease, because she used Listerine. Very compelling. Also, don't brush your teeth immediately before or after oral sex, opens up the pores and crevices of your gums.

[QUOTE=Mtndew704;2718946]I'm only into chicas but I don't judge others for their sexual preferences my friend.[/QUOTE]Though you are at least a bootlicker, and surely challenged in the matter of IQ if you find those childish, unoriginal rants funny. No comedy clubs would give them a second look.

[QUOTE=Villainy;2719173]You are so bad at analysis. Did you ever go to college? Ever take statistics or any kind of analytical courses?[/QUOTE]Don't expect him to ever answer that question, but the answer is surely no. Higher education insists on vetted sources. He either leaps to conclusions with no sources or jumps on the latest wingnut blogosphere conspiracy theories. That's why he has to spend half his days arguing in a hooker forum. Trying to defend such horseshit, and with a total lack of debating skills requires a lot of time.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2719211]What the hell is HPD?[/QUOTE]Histrionic personality disorder (HPD) is a mental health condition marked by unstable emotions, a distorted self-image and an overwhelming desire to be noticed. People with HPD often behave dramatically or inappropriately to get attention.

[QUOTE=Surfer500;2719211]What the hell is HPD?[/QUOTE][URL]https://www.healthline.com/health/histrionic-personality-disorder[/URL]

Histrionic Personality Disorder.

"psychological disorder. Dramatic, emotional, or erratic. Distorted mental image of themselves. Base their self-esteem on the approval of others. Resort to dramatic antics. Uncomfortable in situations in which they are not the center of attention. Interactions with others characterized by inappropriate sexually seductive or provocative behavior. Rapidly shifting expression of emotions. Style of speech that is excessively impressionistic. Self-dramatization, theatricality. <*bold* considers relationships to be more intimate than they actually are <*bold* ".

Just saying.

[QUOTE=Villainy;2719173]Hey Elvis, you're the one who told all of us that you found your GF on Seeking Arrangement. What do those words mean? Seeking. [B]Arrangement[/B]. What type of arrangement was she seeking?

You swear she wasn't a cheap street-walker in El Centro. OK I'll take your word for this one thing (everything else you say requires verification) but the difference between a street-walker and an escort is really only [B]volume[/B].

I know, I know, you think you've found your own "pretty woman" but from what I hear you're no Richard Gere. More like Chris Farley.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHGmw7wFe5g[/URL].[/QUOTE]I don't want to intrude, but there's one factor to consider.

[URL]https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/16/eu-regulators-fine-five-banks-for-forex-rigging.html[/URL]

This isn't the first time.

[URL]https://www.reuters.com/article/banks-forex-settlement/global-banks-admit-guilt-in-forex-probe-fined-nearly-6-billion-idINKBN0O50MG20150521[/URL]

Or the second time.

[URL]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forex_scandal[/URL]

The relatively few people who are either celebrating, or lamenting the Colombian election can no more move the market than a guy with a bucket can empty a lake. The forex market is a $5 trillion per day market.

Just for perspective, from June 2008 to May 2009 COP went from about 1700 to 2450. By October 2009 it was back near 1800. From February to June 2006 it went from about 2250 to 2550. More recently, it went from 3204 on January 10,2020 to 4118 on March 20,2020. The current trend isn't unprecedented.

It may continue, it may reset.

[QUOTE=JjBee62;2719280]I don't want to intrude, but there's one factor to consider.

[URL]https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/16/eu-regulators-fine-five-banks-for-forex-rigging.html[/URL]

This isn't the first time.

[URL]https://www.reuters.com/article/banks-forex-settlement/global-banks-admit-guilt-in-forex-probe-fined-nearly-6-billion-idINKBN0O50MG20150521[/URL]

Or the second time.

[URL]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forex_scandal[/URL]

The relatively few people who are either celebrating, or lamenting the Colombian election can no more move the market than a guy with a bucket can empty a lake. The forex market is a $5 trillion per day market.

Just for perspective, from June 2008 to May 2009 COP went from about 1700 to 2450. By October 2009 it was back near 1800..[/QUOTE]You make some very good points. But I doubt Elvis is interested in reality. He saw a chance to foment an argument. I think if I said it was sunny outside he would bluster quoting his call-girl (friend) that it was actually raining and only a Dem would think it was sunny and anyone who agreed that it was sunny was stupid and a partisan hack.

Isn't that called DFR? Divorced from reality.