American Politics

Obama will win Pennsylvania, you are obviously smoking crack. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh basically decide that State, and both cities are heavily democratic, Philly is 8 to 1 Obama to McCain, Pittsburgh is almost as heavy. Virginia has a large African American population that will vote heavily Obama, its also become strongly Democrat in the past couple of elections. Obama will win but an absolute landslide might not happen. Florida and NC are states that could go for McCain since Obama only leads by 2 points in those places, well within the margin of error. Actually wait, early voting numbers suggest Obama is leading in that state.
I checked RCP's polling average for 2004, Kerry was lagging by 2 points in October, Obama's overall lead has averaged 6 or more points.
The Dollar is beginning to rally after constantly plummeting in value for the past seven years. An Obama victory is one of the possible factors, if McCain wins, it will continue its plummet to peso status, higher government spending caused by the Iraq and Afghan wars plus the possibility of military action against Iran under McCain will definitely put pressure on the dollar.
Unlike 2004, the economy is the hot button issue this year, in 2004 everyone was still worried about terrorism as 9-11 was still fresh on people's minds. PA and VA are probably the least racist middle American states out there. I would believe racism would prevent Obama from winning in Texas or Alabama but not VA or PA.

I wonder who will go to State (Kerry), Defense, NSC (Dr. S. Rice), Tres, chief of staff, etc. And more importantly the deputies and asst secs (who make and execute strategy). If Pres. elect Obama selects men and women of accomplishment and judgement who are not bound by strict ideology we will be ok..but if he apoints a bunch of left wing McNamaras as opposed to men like Bob Gates god help us. his cabinet should resemble Lincoln's as opposed to W's first one.

Anyway, the american economy is in its worst shape since the the 30s. I wouldn't even want the job. Kinda like being asked to be the Fuhrer of Germany in April of '45.

If MN elects a comedian, which it is likley to do, the GOP will enter into a state of wilderness until the american electorate realizes that a divided gov is the best gov.

[QUOTE=Opebo]My prediction - McCain win due to a generous sufficiency of racism in Pennsylvania and Virginia.[/QUOTE]

Obama is putting state's in play that have not been in play for the dems since LBJ. The man's campaign machine is the best in the modern political era, by far. His campiagn is also the most funded in the history of the world.

[QUOTE=DirkDingy]I wonder who will go to State (Kerry), Defense, NSC (Dr. S. Rice), Tres, chief of staff, etc. And more importantly the deputies and asst secs (who make and execute strategy). If Pres. elect Obama selects men and women of accomplishment and judgement who are not bound by strict ideology we will be ok..but if he apoints a bunch of left wing McNamaras as opposed to men like Bob Gates god help us. his cabinet should resemble Lincoln's as opposed to W's first one.

Anyway, the american economy is in its worst shape since the the 30s. I wouldn't even want the job. Kinda like being asked to be the Fuhrer of Germany in April of '45.

If MN elects a comedian, which it is likley to do, the GOP will enter into a state of wilderness until the american electorate realizes that a divided gov is the best gov.[/QUOTE]

I think Rice will get the roll of Ambassador to the UN. Hagel has been favored for Sec of State for awhile now. Samantha Power will also be involved in this, so yes the room will be filled with Intelligent people.

Sam's hubby is Cass Sunstein a legal Prof at Harvard Law, tabbed to be a Supreme Court Nominee when the time comes.

For you wanna-be War Hawks I guess you would watch those and Sec of Defence the most.

I think this cabinet will be quite a bit more Dove'ish and less Hawk'ish, we can't afford it for one thing. I say that not in jest, I think Internationally we can't afford it. We'll need to borrow more money for these "Rebuild America" policies and can't be sinking trillions of dollars in the Middle East. Nobody in several thousand years has been able to conqure that area, who are we to think we'll be able to do it?

6 years in and we're not any closer to doing it.

In fact, I think you'll see "Peace In the Middle East 2.0", Improved relations with former CIS countries, while keeping Russia at arm's length, which means for the most part, continued diffculties in importing your wife from Russia and any of its direct allies.

As for the 151 bases not in the US, we'll close a good number of them over the next 10 years as a part of a scale down in military action. We have spent almost 30 years increasing the miltary budget. Electronic warfare and intelliegent policy is just as effective as "brute force" in this almost post "modern" era.

I believe 70% of the focus for the Federal Government will be LOCAL policy, reversing of NAFTA, along with a Green Economy, Univ Health Care and few other things.

Pollyanna'ish I know but I honestly believe because most of us have woken up this will happen or we'll keep cycling out people until our demands are met.

Every time an US president is about to get dedicated to domestic policies, like economy in Obama's case, he soon gets more and more preoccupied with foreign policy, which has always been de facto first priority, like it or not.
I wonder what Obama's first challange in that area will be. As if old well-know problems on the international scene were not enough, there are news about a deal between Russia and Libya, including nuclear technology and large Russian naval base in Libya. Will Obama maintain his dovish image, or rather get into troubles followed by massive criticism from republicans?

[i]"A cooperation agreement was signed in the area of the peaceful use of civilian nuclear, particularly in the design and construction of reactors and the supply of nuclear fuel," said Abdelrahman Chalgham, who accompanied Kadhafi.[/i]
[url]http://www.france24.com/en/20081102-russia-libya-sign-nuclear-pact[/url]

[i]Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, starting his first
visit to post-Soviet Russia on Friday, will discuss opening a
Russian naval base in Libya to counterbalance U.S. interests in
the region[/i]
[url]http://www.france24.com/en/20081031-kadhafi-Muammar-Gaddafi-offers-host-russian-naval-base-libya[/url]

The US has and will continue to have (for the foreseeable future) the largest military in the world. No one else has even shown a remote inkling of dedicating the amount of resources it would take to challenge the US. Russia is a non factor militarily. The army is highly over rated, the navy is a joke and the air force is still flying propeller planes. China might be a more viable #2 then Russia. Either way #2 is remote at best.

One assumes based only on the facts that Obama is a Democrat and non military that he will take a soft stance on foreign policy, this is not true. He already said he wants to wind things down in Iraq (there will be a US presence there for at least 5-10 years) and ramp things up in Afghanistan to finish the job W never did, mission accomplished indeed.

Russia wants to counter US interests in the Med? America no longer needs to shield Europe from the Soviet Bear. First, the Soviet Bear no longer exists. Second, Europe (UK, FRA, GER) is more then capable ot taking care of themselves.

Leuween, forgive CruiserD, he is your typical Cambridge boy, always believing what he sees on BBC. Having a conventional military means little in the nuclear age, the US could have the best conventional military and it does but it still could not stop a Russian attack on Georgia. Georgia is not irrelevant to the US, its a key locale, an oil pipeline runs across the country. And Georgia like other Central Asian former Soviet states are key to US strategy in Asia.

Another 5 to 10 years in Iraq under Obama??!! No way. Obama will probably be the most pro Arab and pro Muslim US leader in history, recall his middle name?? Oh and his father was a Muslim. All the hardcore zionists in the States and around the world are aware of this fact, and they are definitely nervous.

Obama is no military man, its obvious he won't pursue an aggressive military policy at all. Arnie indirectly called him a girlie man. Arnie noticed like I that Obama is not exactly a bloke. You have to be kidding me. McCain is another breed altogether, he will bomb Iran into the stone age...or at least say he will. Israel is already planning to take matters into their own hands with Iran, if Obama wins today, Israel will use the remainder of the Bush term as a window of opportunity to strike Tehran. Obama is a momma's boy, he will use diplomacy above everything else.

The UK being a true part of Europe??? Now I know you are smoking some good shit, CruiserD. The poms never thought of themselves as Europeans, they still even have passport checks from the continent. The UK is almost on its way out of the EU. That is exactly what the continentals, particularly the Germans and French, want, the UK has been nothing more than a spoiler in unifying Europe, with the UK out, Paris and Berlin can shut up all the other smaller anti-EU voices in Europe, particularly the Polish, Dutch, Swedes, etc.

The EU gets most of its petroleum from Russia and the Russians have been known from time to time to blackmail the Europeans, they will probably look more into the Middle East, and I would not be surprised if a confrontation between Europe and Iran becomes a possibility down the road.

The question of who is capable of bombing whom wasn't on my mind when I speculated about Obama's first presidential moves. In absolute figures, America spends more on military than all other countries together - True. However, $1bln buys far more hardware in Russia or China and their spendings are rising considerably. Besides when Cruiser_D dismisses Russia as a "non factor militarily" he can't be aware that Russia is still the only country in the world that can annihilate the USA. So, we are back to nukes and assured mutual destruction, which by the way will never take place. Any militarily conflict between US and Russia is out of the question, and it was clearly demonstrated in Georgia.

Since Russian naval presence in Syria, and now also in Libya can't be interpreted as anything else but response to US geopolitical ambitions, Obama will have to counterpunch somehow and no matter how he does it, criticism from GOP won't be late. Further, recent Russian involvement in Venezuela won't be kindly seen by Washington, given South America's love affair with socialism. Add Cuba's plans to drill for oil and Brazilian aid package to the regime worth $1bln. What if Cuba with the Castro brothers at the helm, gets deep pockets and starts spending oil money in South and Central America same way Chavez is doing? Will Cubans invite American Big Oil to the fiesta when drilling [url=http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1853252,00.html?xid=site-cnn-partner]fewer than 100 miles off U.S. shores[/url]? Wait, what about embargo?

[i]Despite the Bush Administration's hard line on Cuba, Republicans in Congress have proposed legislation to exempt Big Oil from the embargo. That clamor is sure to rise — especially if Barack Obama, who is more open to dialogue with Havana, becomes the next President — now that Cuba's state oil company, Cubapetroleo, or Cupet, has announced a stunning new estimate of more than 20 billion bbl. bubbling off its shores. "This is not a game," Cupet's exploration manager, Rafael Tenreyro, assured reporters in Havana last week.

If true, those potential reserves could make Cuba a major petro player in the hemisphere. (The U.S. has reserves of 29 billion bbl.)[/i]

Looks countries like Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Libya, Cuba got or are getting rich from oil, and they haven't always been best allies of the US. Interesting chess game for next couple of years. Finally one can't stop wondering reading [url=http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1847976,00.html]this[/url]:

[i]Over the past week, however, it became clear just how much the "American problem" may affect Brazil's stellar economic performance, as the Sao Paulo stock index — the Bovespa — lost about 20% of its value. A visibly irked Lula barked that the U.S. disaster "is one of the most serious problems we have ever seen." His parting shot: "Our financial system is not involved in the [U.S.] subprime" mortgage mess that sparked the catastrophe. "We did our homework and the U.S., who spent 30 years telling us what to do, did not."

Such is today's surreal situation that Washington is getting lectured on capitalism by Lula, the head of Brazil's leftist Workers' Party. All over a region once considered the poster child for economic dysfunction, the refrain is the same: Why can't the gringos run an economy as well as we do?[/i]

It doesn't take a genius to realize that Obama will have tougher time in office than most of his predecessors. His domestic opponents probably aren't heels over head in a dovish, dark-skinned Commander in Chief with dubious background, and those who voted for him, most likely expect Obama to deliver in terms of jobs, income and so on. I don't envy him.

Obama's skin color doesn't really matter, and domestic opponents can now shut up. Anyway Asia is going to change the global balance of power and shift it East, since the two biggest economic stories of this century are populated by mostly brown and yellow people, that issue is moot. Most of what we know as white racism started with the age of exploration, a belief based that white European "culture" is superior, that age is over.

[QUOTE=CBGBConnisur]Obama's skin color doesn't really matter.....[/QUOTE]

...I am still yelling that the man is just as much white (if not more) as he is black and calling him America's First Black President is a fallacy.

But anyway I send my condolences/congratulations to the man because this is one high paying job I would not want and I wish him all the best.

The US president makes 400k/year, not exactly a high paying CEO job, however the corporate jet and company housing is pretty sweet.

DW, Obama is black and he's a man, he's also the first black president elect of the US, these are indeed are facts. Is he Snoop Dogg, JayZ, Mike Tyson or Jesse Jackson, no.

[QUOTE=Cruiser D]The US president makes 400k/year, not exactly a high paying CEO job, however the corporate jet and company housing is pretty sweet.

DW, Obama is black and he's a man, he's also the first black president elect of the US, these are indeed are facts. Is he Snoop Dogg, JayZ, Mike Tyson or Jesse Jackson, no.[/QUOTE]

I guess the one drop rule still applies..wow.

[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-drop_rule[/url]

Obama earned 4.5 million last year in royalties from his books Dreams of My Father and The Audacity of Hope. His salary is irrelevant. Even William Jefferson Clinton's net worth skyrocketed after 8 years as President. The same will happen for Obama. If he was not married, women would be lining up for him.
I think the race card is now moot in America, Obama won by a clear majority, and African Americans have to look to Obama as their example.
Obama is and will be more dovish with regards to foreign policy, but that makes sense when we are living in a world where others are rising. America is not really falling, it depends on your frame of reference, but is just entering an era where it is not the sole king of the hill.

Joe Liberman's turncoat ass will be marginalized now.

[QUOTE=CBGBConnisur]Obama earned 4.5 million last year in royalties from his books Dreams of My Father and The Audacity of Hope. His salary is irrelevant. Even William Jefferson Clinton's net worth skyrocketed after 8 years as President. The same will happen for Obama. If he was not married, women would be lining up for him.
I think the race card is now moot in America, Obama won by a clear majority, and African Americans have to look to Obama as their example.
Obama is and will be more dovish with regards to foreign policy, but that makes sense when we are living in a world where others are rising. America is not really falling, it depends on your frame of reference, but is just entering an era where it is not the sole king of the hill.[/QUOTE]

women line up for a fuckin county commissioner...the only bigger aphrodisiac (sans perhaps fame) than money for a woman is power. an unmarried congressman in dc can pull most any woman he wants...grade a star power.

since i never broke through in hollywood i'm gonna try dc or the statehouse.