Castro's third wind---Starting to look like '79 again
Nicaragua's Creeping Coup
Monday, October 3, 2005; Page A16
[url]http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/02/AR2005100200818.html[/url]
MANY PEOPLE outside Latin America probably assume Daniel Ortega's political career ended 15 years ago when his ruinous attempt to install a Marxist dictatorship in Nicaragua ended with an election he decisively lost. The slightly better informed might suppose that his two subsequent electoral defeats, the allegations of corruption and child molestation that haunt him, or his single-digit rating in opinion polls have made him a marginal figure in Nicaraguan politics. Sadly, the truth is otherwise: Thanks to the weakness of the country's new democratic institutions, Mr. Ortega is close to regaining power and to broadening the Latin alliance of undemocratic states now composed by Cuba and Venezuela.
Mr. Ortega's comeback has been accomplished through a brazenly corrupt alliance with a former right-wing president, Arnoldo Aleman, who was sentenced to 20 years in prison in 2003 for looting the national treasury. Mr. Ortega's Sandinista Party supported the prosecution, then abruptly switched sides and formed a pact with Mr. Aleman against President Enrique Bolanos, a member of Mr. Aleman's Liberal Party who bravely chose to tackle government corruption. The left-right alliance has used its majority in the National Assembly to rewrite the constitution and stack the Supreme Court. In the past week it has begun stripping the members of Mr. Bolanos's cabinet of immunity so that they can be prosecuted before Sandinista judges on bogus charges. If this power play succeeds, Mr. Bolanos will be next. Meanwhile, Mr. Aleman, who stole tens of millions from one of Latin America's poorest countries, was freed from house arrest last week.
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Mr. Ortega's goal is to force Mr. Bolanos to accept his constitutional rewrite, which transfers almost all presidential powers to Congress. That would effectively deliver Nicaragua to Sandinista control without one of the elections that Mr. Ortega keeps losing. Scheduled elections next year could then be manipulated. Already, the corrupt alliance has lowered the percentage of the vote a presidential candidate needs to be elected to 35, and criminal charges have been brought against one of the leading candidates. The Sandinistas will have plenty of money to spend, thanks to Hugo Chavez. Mr. Ortega recently announced that he had arranged with Venezuela's self-styled "Bolivarian revolutionary" for a supply of subsidized oil.
Compared with Mr. Chavez's aggressive intervention, attempts by the Bush administration and other outsiders to save Nicaraguan democracy so far look feckless. The new secretary general of the Organization of American States, Jose Miguel Insulza, tried to broker a political compromise but pronounced himself frustrated when Mr. Ortega ignored his appeals to stop undermining Mr. Bolanos's government. The Bush administration managed to win congressional passage of the Central American Free Trade Agreement this summer, but Mr. Ortega has blocked its ratification by Nicaragua.
Deputy Secretary of State Robert B. Zoellick is due to visit Managua this week in what officials say will be an attempt to bolster Mr. Bolanos and persuade Mr. Aleman's right-wing supporters to abandon their self-destructive alliance with the Sandinistas. As happens so often in Latin America during the Bush administration, high-level intervention arrives late. It does have one thing going for it: Eighty percent of Nicaraguans say they oppose the Ortega-Aleman pact. Nicaragua's rescue will depend on people power, inside or outside the polls.
Parkinson's disease V Brain aneurysm
in the first two weeks of oct, a live shot of castro was no where to be found. cuban tv resorted to taped fluff 10 second pieces of everyone's daddy, sporting a warm smile in front of the kids.
i found out in oct from reliable cuban sources, the old man had a brain aneurysm. in a carpeted media story today, we discover the us government has settled on parkinson's disease, with a information lag time of 4-6 weeks.
castro was back in a seat for the tv roundtable discussion about wilma. he hijacked the chat about wilma and turned it into a personal anti-usa rant about everything under the sun, moon, and stars of new orleans.
it was fitting the electric was cut off, and cut him off at 9:30pm, sunday, oct 23. little did he know, he had his own flooding, housing, food, and electric problems on the horizon.
the was no food in the markets for peso cubano, cup for 3 days, in a non-flooded area. the weekend after the storm in vedado, the only food available was bread, cream cheese, and cookies in divisa, cuc.
posted on wed, nov. 16, 2005
castro has parkinson's disease, cia has concluded
two officials said the cia is convinced that cuban leader fidel castro suffers from parkinson's disease. the agency has made a point of alerting u.s. policymakers.
by pablo bachelet and frances robles
[email]pbachelet@herald.com[/email]
washington - the cia has alerted policymakers over the potential eroding of fidel castro's health.
the cia recently concluded that cuban leader fidel castro suffers from parkinson's disease and has warned u.s. policymakers to be ready for trouble if the 79-year-old ruler's health erodes over the next few years.
if true, the cia's assessment of the nonfatal but debilitating condition would mean castro may be entering a period where doctors say the symptoms grow more evident, medicines are less effective and mental functions start to deteriorate.
although castro's brother raúl, head of the armed forces, has been anointed as his successor, cuba analysts fear the possibility of a tumultuous period during which an incapacitated castro refuses to give up power but can no longer project his overpowering personality to cuba's 11 million people.
''for fidel to start shaking in a real and substantial way -- in public -- sends quite a powerful message to people around the world,'' said frank o. mora, a professor of national security strategy at the national war college.
rumors that castro suffers from parkinson's have been around since the mid-1990s. in 1998, he even jokingly challenged journalists to a pistol duel at 25 paces to show the steadiness of his hands.
but the central intelligence agency began briefing senior members of the state department and lawmakers about one year ago that its doctors had become convinced that castro was diagnosed with the disease around 1998, said two longtime government officials familiar with the briefings. both asked for anonymity because leaking the contents of the classified briefing could violate u.s. laws.
''about one year ago, we started seeing some pretty definitive stuff that he had parkinson's,'' said one of them.
there has been no independent confirmation of castro's illness, or any indication of how the cia came to its conclusion. the state department and the cia declined to comment for this story.
but one state department official said there is already evidence that castro's abilities are fading noticeably. he is increasingly slurring his words and going off on tangents in public speeches, although he seems to have good days and bad days. clearly, ''he is not the same person he was five years ago,'' added the official.
others insist that castro is fine, however. ''he enjoys excellent health,'' ricardo alarcón, president of cuba's national assembly, said last month after he was asked about castro's failure to attend the ibero-american summit in spain.
parkinson's symptoms include tremors, stiffness, difficulty with balance and muffled speech, although its exact manifestations vary according to the victim. high-profile individuals stricken with the disease include the late pope john paul ii, former u.s. attorney general janet reno, actor michael j. fox and boxer muhammad ali.
dr. carlos singer, a parkinson's expert at the university of miami, said the disease on average cuts short the lifespan of a patient only by one or two years. ''the issue is not as much how long they can live, it is how much do they suffer in the process,'' he said.
the first five to eight years usually are ''manageable with relatively small doses of medication,'' singer said. after that, symptoms such as stooped postures and difficulties with balance become more evident. and in the advanced stages, about 40 percent of patients develop what one specialist on the disease called ``basically an overall decline in cognitive functions.''
drug eases symptoms
the main drug to ease the symptoms of the disease is levodopa, which replenishes the brain with the dopamine chemical that is deficient in parkinson's. patients can program their activities around the periods when the drug is taking effect, known to doctors as ''on periods.'' but over time, the drug loses its effectiveness.
''as the disease slowly progresses, the medications have to be taken more frequently, at higher doses,'' said paul larson, a neurosurgeon and parkinson's specialist at the university of california, san francisco. 'but you eventually reach a point where the patient is fluctuating between an `on period' and an 'off period' so frequently that you can't, in essence, keep up with just medications.''
possible side effects of levodopa are involuntary movements and facial grimaces, as well as visual hallucinations. as both parkinson's and the drug can cause blood pressure to drop, patients can sometimes faint, singer said.
fainted, nodded off
castro has displayed some signs of ill health in recent years, though perhaps no worse than other 79-year-olds.
castro fainted during a speech in a havana suburb in 2001 and was seen almost collapsing during the inauguration of argentine president néstor kirchner in 2003. a public tumble last year left him with a fractured knee and arm, and former ecuador president lucio gutiérrez wrote in his recent book that he had to prop up a nodding-off castro several times while sitting next to him at an international event.
cuba watchers also noted castro was not shown touring the areas of havana hit by hurricane wilma, something out of character for a man who has personally managed every crisis in cuba since taking power in early 1959, from the 1961 bay of pigs invasion to the elián gonzález affair in 2000.
for u.s. policymakers, the report that castro may suffer from parkinson's has sparked concerns about cuba's political stability down the road.
''it's going to be harder for fidel to go out and perform, and he's been performing the guerrilla theater for 50 years,'' said brian latell, a retired cia analyst on cuba. latell is the author of after fidel, a new book about castro and his brother raúl, the world's longest-serving defense minister and the sole designated successor of castro.
larger questions
damián fernández, director of florida international university's cuban research institute, said the larger questions are how castro's subordinates would react to his mental or physical erosion, and how that could affect raúl's role as cuba's no. 2.
''i envision raúl trying to forge key alliances with subordinates in the military and among civilians to rule very tightly,'' he said. ''but i don't know how this could sustain itself without delivering benefits'' to the cuban people.
that's assuming that raúl, 74, does not die before his brother. that would leave fidel without a clear successor and the powerful military, now controlled by the younger brother, without a widely recognized or respected leader.
the result might be political turmoil as senior government officials jockey for power with a fidel castro too infirm to make vital decisions.
''the revolution could be hanging by a thread,'' latell said.
but that may be some time away. during his recent tv interview with argentine soccer star diego maradona, castro said that rumors of his health were so frequent that ``the day that i die, nobody is going to believe it.''
Which of these is responsible for more unnecessary deaths: Fidel or Bush?
I also read that he had Parkinsons.
Life expectancy in Cuba is ranked as 50th in the world, and at 73.84 years for men (78.73 years for women). Our bearded friend is now 80 years old. He has exceeded his countries average. I wish him a few more years.
I say this of course, ignoring any “wrong doings” we may point in his direction; but then which politician / country leader is innocent?
Mr. Arbusto, ex-alcoholic, bible thumper and common electoral cheat is guiltier of even more heinous crimes against humanity than the bearded one…
I wonder which of these two leaders is responsible for more unnecessary deaths?
Regards, Havanaman
Last time I looked C.I.A. was an American institution
[QUOTE=Rebel Monger]If you ask [B]that[/B] question, it means that you made your mind already, and of course, I know who your choice for the [B]guiltiest[/B] is! I bet you don't have any idea of how many people (Cubans and not Cubans) have died due to fidel's actions since he took power.
About where Cuba ranks in anything, nobody (not even the Cuban government) knows that. Statistics in the island are a result of [B] what looks good[/B] for the regime, not reality. Of course you won't believe any of that. To you, fidel is [B]perfect[/B]. In reality, for you, he is, without him......[/QUOTE]
Well let me see: Wise up and start thinking before making judgements:
[QUOTE=Rebel Monger]If you ask [B]that[/B] question, it means that you made your mind already,......[/QUOTE]
How do you know that I made my mind up: YOU know NOTHING about me. We can all see and know that you are quick to make judgements about others! So we know about you.
Is it by magic that you know these things?
[QUOTE=Rebel Monger] I bet you don't have any idea of how many people (Cubans and not Cubans) have died due to fidel's actions since he took power.......[/QUOTE]
You are 100% right. I have no idea. No one does, except maybe you when you use the same magic you used earlier to know what I am thinking!
[QUOTE=Rebel Monger] About where Cuba ranks in anything, nobody (not even the Cuban government) knows that. Statistics in the island are a result of what looks good for the regime, not reality........[/QUOTE]
Try doing a simple search in yahoo or goggle: just type in the words “life expectancy in cuba”.
Let me help you: [url]http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html[/url]
This is a CIA site…. Last time I looked C.I.A. was an American institution…. There are many such sites giving a lot of data about many countries. There are academic institutions which make special studies on age, longevity and socio-economic correlations: just do the searches and you can see the data.
Alternatively just tune in your magic and see what you get before you start to flame… Get my point or do you need it explaining?
[QUOTE=Rebel Monger] To you, fidel is perfect......[/QUOTE]
That’s your magic again isn’t it? You seem to know what I am thinking…. I guess you must be really angry with me right now because I am having some strong thoughts about you!
Of course Fidel is not perfect. He is a shit, just like Arbusto! I have disliked the man since I heard him speak at the Malecon, in the late ‘70’s and many times since then.
[QUOTE=Rebel Monger] In reality, for you, he is, without him......[/QUOTE] I have no idea what you are trying to say here: perhaps if you learned better English instead of wasting peoples time using your magic to know what they are saying, it would be possible to have an intelligent conversation with you…
Regards, Havanaman
It looks like the old man may be on his way out.
latell: succession in cuba may have begun
brian latell, former top cuba analyst for the cia, and now a researcher at um's institute for cuban and cuban-american studies, believes the succession of power from fidel castro to his brother raul may have already begun. he writes this month in his latell report:
"signs of what is probably accelerating succession planning at the highest levels of the castro regime have been multiplying since early this month. as fidel castro’s ability to provide coherent leadership has conspicuously deteriorated, his brother raul seems to be assuming broader responsibilities while also reaching out to improve his image with the cuban people. these developments could even indicate that raul has already assumed critical responsibilities from his brother and is now acting as cuba’s de facto top decision maker.
"raul has been asserting personal control over the communist party apparatus, highlighting its likely enhanced role in the future. he has been focusing intense and sympathetic media attention on himself, while also emphasizing the strength and unity of the armed forces he has run since 1959. he has been out in public much more than has been customary, regularly now appearing on the front page of the official communist party daily, granma. cuban media coverage of the younger castro has reached such unprecedented intensity in fact, that it seems logical to conclude that he has authorized the creation of his own public relations staff. always deferential to fidel’s starring role in the cuban revolution, raul would never in the past have presumed to upstage his brother this way.
"the media blitz began on june 3rd, raul’s 75th birthday, when granma, ran a remarkable, extended paean to the defense minister. under the headline cercania de raul, literally translated as “nearness” to raul, the article was intended in part to project a sympathetic image of a leader who has never been popular with the cuban people. but the spanish language title of the article also suggests a possibly momentous double meaning: cercania de raul might also be translated as the “proximity of raul,” suggesting that his ascent to power in his own right has begun, or is imminent. i do not believe that raul has ever been the subject of such unusual and personalized media attention."
"the granma birthday article was unprecedented in a number of respects. the authors, longtime close personal friends of raul, seemed intent on distinguishing him favorably from fidel, which would have been inconceivable until now. the “modesty and simplicity” that raul demonstrates “in personal interactions” according to the authors, certainly contrasts with fidel’s grandiosity."
"raul, the article emphasized, avoids making “unilateral assessments.” instead –and notably unlike his brother—he always encourages “collective” approaches to solving problems. the implication in this, and other similar references in the article, as well as in a pointed passage in a speech raul delivered to a military audience on june 14th, is probably that he intends to govern at the head of a collective civilian-military team. he seems to be signaling other cuban officials that he does not plan to occupy all of the most important positions of power in the party and government, as fidel does. that is a sound strategy for assuring leadership support for raul’s uncontested succession..."
"...the article concludes with several passages drawn from fidel’s speeches and interviews over the years, in which he certifies his brother as his legitimate and preferred successor. “in my opinion, the colleague that was best prepared and that i knew could very well carry out the task was comrade raul.” and, fidel is also quoted as once having said: “everybody knows we hate nepotism here. (but) i honestly think that (raul) has the sufficient qualities to substitute for me in case i die in this battle".
[url]http://blogs.herald.com/cuban_connection/[/url]
"....this great figure of America and our history," Mr Chavez said.
It would seem the old dog may well return to power... Still, 80 years is avery long time in South America...
Regards, Havanaman
[url]http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-13537248,00.html[/url]
[B]Happy Birthday For Leader[/B]
Updated: 07:46, Sunday August 13, 2006
Fidel Castro was sitting up, walking, talking and even working ahead of his 80th birthday today, according to the Cuban Communist Party's newspaper.
Despite the optimistic assessment, it is thought unlikely Castro will make a public appearance to celebrate the landmark becuse of his current poor health.
The Cuban leader temporarily ceded his powers to his brother Raul two weeks ago.
The official newspaper Granma carried its most optimistic report since intestinal surgery forced Castro to step aside.
Meanwhile, his close friend and political ally, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, said he would be visiting.
"I'll take him a nice gift, a good cake, and we'll be celebrating the 80 years of this great figure of America and our history," Mr Chavez said.
He also saw Castro in October 2004, two weeks after a fall that shattered the Cuban leader's kneecap and broke his right arm.
The article in the Granma newspaper was the most detailed statement Cuba's government has issued since Castro announced on July 31 that he was temporarily ceding his powers to Raul, his deputy.
The article goes on: "A friend tells ... that he could appreciate how the Chief of the Revolution, after receiving a little physical therapy, took some steps in his room and then, seated in a chair, conversed animatedly."
No official events have been for mark the birthday milestone.
Celebrations have been postponed until December 2, the 50th anniversary of the formation of the Revolutionary Armed Forces.
